Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer

Optimal risk thresholds for prescribing statins as primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Iranian general population: a benefit-harm modelling study

PURPOSE

The use of statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is associated with various beneficial outcomes, alongside certain undesirable effects. This study aims to determine optimal risk thresholds above which statin therapy yields a net benefit, considering both the positive effects and potential adverse effects, as well as their probabilities and patient preferences.

METHODS

Quantitative benefit-harm balance modeling was applied to the Iranian general population aged 40 to 75 years with no history of CVD. The analysis utilized data from prior studies, including statin effect estimates for different outcomes from a meta-analysis, patient preferences obtained from an Iranian survey, and baseline incidence rates of adverse outcomes sourced from the Global Burden of Disease study for Iran. Outcomes were defined as angina, myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, fatal or non-fatal stroke, and heart failure. Benefit-harm balance indices were calculated for various combinations of age, sex, and 10-year CVD risk.

RESULTS

Statin therapy was found to be advantageous at a lower 10-year CVD risk threshold in men (18-23%) compared to women (24-28%). Furthermore, individuals aged 40-45 years exhibited a lower risk threshold (18% in men, 24% in women) than those aged 70-75 years (23% in men, 28% in women).

CONCLUSION

The desirable 10-year risk thresholds for statin prescription in the primary prevention of CVD vary by age and gender, ranging from 18 to 28%, encompassing a spectrum of outcomes from angina to CVD mortality. These results suggest hard-CVD risk thresholds of 7.5% to 10% for both sexes.

Incorporating Individual-Level Treatment Effects and Outcome Preferences Into Personalized Blood Pressure Target Recommendations

BACKGROUND

There are no shared decision-making frameworks for selecting blood pressure (BP) targets for individuals with hypertension. This study addressed whether results from the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) could be tailored to individuals using predicted risks and simulated preferences.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 8202 SPRINT participants, Cox models were developed and internally validated to predict each individual's absolute difference in risk from intensive versus standard BP lowering for cardiovascular events, cognitive impairment, death, and serious adverse events (AEs). Individual treatment effects were combined using simulated preference weights into a net benefit, which represents a weighted sum of risk differences across outcomes. Net benefits were compared among those above versus below the median AE risk. In simulations for which cardiovascular, cognitive, and death events had much greater weight than the AEs of BP lowering, the median net benefit was 3.3 percentage points (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.7), and 100% of participants had a net benefit favoring intensive BP lowering. When simulating benefits and harms to have similar weights, the median net benefit was 0.8 percentage points (IQR, 0.2-2.2), and 87% had a positive net benefit. Compared with participants at lower risk of AEs from BP lowering, those at higher risk had a greater net benefit from intensive BP lowering despite experiencing more AEs (P<0.001 in both simulations).

CONCLUSIONS

Most SPRINT participants had a predicted net benefit that favored intensive BP lowering, but the degree of net benefit varied considerably. Tailoring BP targets using each patient's risks and preferences may provide more refined BP target recommendations.

Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

In breast cancer (BC) pathogenesis models, normal cells acquire somatic mutations and there is a stepwise progression from high-risk lesions and ductal carcinoma in situ to invasive cancer. The precancer biology of mammary tissue warrants better characterization to understand how different BC subtypes emerge. Primary methods for BC prevention or risk reduction include lifestyle changes, surgery, and chemoprevention. Surgical intervention for BC prevention involves risk-reducing prophylactic mastectomy, typically performed either synchronously with the treatment of a primary tumor or as a bilateral procedure in high-risk women. Chemoprevention with endocrine therapy carries adherence-limiting toxicity.

GLP-1 receptor agonists for weight reduction in people living with obesity but without diabetes: a living benefit-harm modelling study

Background

The benefit of Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (RAs) in weight reduction against potential harms remains unclear. This study aimed at evaluating the benefit-harm balance of initiating GLP-1 RAs versus placebo for weight loss in people living with overweight and obesity but without diabetes.

Methods

We performed benefit-harm balance modelling, which will be updated as new evidence emerges. We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in PubMed, controlled trials registry, drug approval and regulatory documents, and outcome preference weights as of April 10, 2024. We synthesize data using pairwise meta-analysis to estimate the effect of GLP-1 RAs to inform the benefit-harm balance modelling. We predicted the absolute effects of the positive and negative outcomes over 1 and 2 years of treatment using exponential models. We applied preference weights to the outcomes, ranging from 0 for least concerning to 1.0 for most concerning. We then calculated whether the benefit of achieving 5% and 10% weight loss outweighed the harms on a common scale. The analyses accounted for the statistical uncertainties of treatment effects, preference weights, and outcome risks.

Findings

We included 8 RCTs involving 8847 participants. The pooled average age was 46.7 years, with the majority being women (74%) and people living with obesity (96%). Of 1000 persons treated with GLP-1 RAs for 2 years, 375 (95% confidence interval 352 to 399) achieved a 10% weight loss, and 318 (296 to 339) achieved a 5% weight loss compared to those treated with placebo. Several harm outcomes were more frequent in the GLP-1 RA group, including 41 abdominal pain events per 1000 persons over 2 years (19 to 69), cholelithiasis (8, 1 to 21), constipation (118, 78 to 164), diarrhoea (100, 42 to 173), alopecia (57, 10 to 176), hypoglycaemia (17, 1 to 68), injection site reactions (4, -3 to 19), and vomiting (110, 80 to 145) among others. Achieving a 10% weight loss with GLP-1 RA therapy outweighed the cumulative harms, with a net benefit probability of 0.97 at year 1 and 0.91 at year 2. The absolute net benefit was equivalent to 104 (100 to 112) per 1000 persons achieving a 10% weight loss over 2 years without experiencing any worrisome harm. A 5% weight loss did not show a net benefit, with probabilities of 0.13 and 0.01 at year 1 and year 2, respectively. However, these benefits were sensitive to preference weights, suggesting that even a 5% weight loss could be net beneficial for individuals with less concern about harm outcomes. The net benefit for a 10% weight loss was highest for semaglutide, followed by liraglutide and tirzepatide, with 2-year probabilities of 0.96, 0.72, and 0.60, respectively.

Interpretation

The benefit of GLP-1 RAs exceeded the harms for weight loss in the first 2 years of treatment, yet the net benefit was dependent on individual' treatment goals (10% or 5% weight loss) and willingness to accept harms in pursuit of weight loss. This implies that treatment decisions have to be personalized to individuals to optimize benefits and reduce harms and overuse of treatments. Due to varying evidence, especially regarding harm outcomes across studies, it is necessary to continuously update and monitor the benefit-harm balance of GLP-1 RAs.

Funding

SNSF and LOOP Zurich.

Traditional Mexican dietary pattern and cancer risk among women of Mexican descent

PURPOSE

To examine the association of a traditional Mexican diet score with risk of total, breast, and colorectal cancer among women of Mexican ethnic descent in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI).

METHODS

Participants were WHI enrollees who self-identified as being of Mexican descent. Data from food frequency questionnaires self-administered at study baseline were used to calculate the MexD score, with higher scores indicating greater adherence to an a priori-defined traditional Mexican diet (high in dietary fiber, vegetables, and legumes). Incident cancers were self-reported by participants from 1993 to 2020 and adjudicated by trained physicians. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 2,343 Mexican descent women (median baseline age: 59 years), a total of 270 cancers (88 breast, 37 colorectal) occurred during a mean follow-up of 14.4 years. The highest tertile of MexD score was associated with a lower risk of all-cancer incidence (HR: 0.67; 95% CI 0.49-0.91; p-trend: 0.01) and colorectal cancer (HR: 0.38; 95% CI 0.14-0.998; p-trend < 0.05), with each unit increase in the MexD score associated with a 6% lower risk of all-cancer incidence (HR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.88-0.99). There was no statistically significant association with risk of breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Consumption of a traditional Mexican diet was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cancer incidence and colorectal cancer. Confirmation of these findings in future studies is important, given the prevalence of colorectal cancer and a growing U.S. population of women of Mexican descent.

Benefit-Harm Analysis for Informed Decision Making on Participating in Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Modeling Study

OBJECTIVES

To facilitate informed decision making on participating in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, we assessed the benefit-harm balance of CRC screening for a wide range of subgroups over different time horizons.

METHODS

The study combined incidence proportions of benefits and harms of (not) participating in CRC screening estimated by the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to CAncer microsimulation model, a preference eliciting survey, and benefit-harm balance modeling combining all outcomes to determine the net health benefit of CRC screening over 10, 20, and 30 years. Probability of net health benefit was estimated for 210 different subgroups based on age, sex, previous participation in CRC screening, and lifestyle.

RESULTS

CRC screening was net beneficial in 183 of 210 subgroups over 30 years (median probability [MP] of 0.79, interquartile range [IQR] of 0.69-0.85) across subgroups. Net health benefit was greater for men (MP 0.82; IQR 0.69-0.89) than women (MP 0.76; IQR 0.67-0.83) and for those without history of participation in previous screenings (MP 0.84; IQR 0.80-0.89) compared with those with (MP 0.69; IQR 0.59-0.75). Net health benefit decreased with increasing age, from MP of 0.84 (IQR 0.80-0.86) at age 55 to 0.61 (IQR 0.56-0.71) at age 75. Shorter time horizons led to lower benefit, with MP of 0.70 (IQR 0.62-0.80) over 20 years and 0.54 (IQR 0.48-0.67) over 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our benefit-harm analysis provides information about net health benefit of screening participation, based on important characteristics and preferences of individuals, which could assist screening invitees in making informed decisions on screening participation.

A Scoping Review of Personalized, Interactive, Web-Based Clinical Decision Tools Available for Breast Cancer Prevention and Screening in the United States

Introduction. Personalized web-based clinical decision tools for breast cancer prevention and screening could address knowledge gaps, enhance patient autonomy in shared decision-making, and promote equitable care. The purpose of this review was to present evidence on the availability, usability, feasibility, acceptability, quality, and uptake of breast cancer prevention and screening tools to support their integration into clinical care. Methods. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews Checklist to conduct this review. We searched 6 databases to identify literature on the development, validation, usability, feasibility, acceptability testing, and uptake of the tools into practice settings. Quality assessment for each tool was conducted using the International Patient Decision Aid Standard instrument, with quality scores ranging from 0 to 63 (lowest-highest). Results. We identified 10 tools for breast cancer prevention and 9 tools for screening. The tools included individual (e.g., age), clinical (e.g., genomic risk factors), and health behavior (e.g., alcohol use) characteristics. Fourteen tools included race/ethnicity, but no tool incorporated contextual factors (e.g., insurance, access) associated with breast cancer. All tools were internally or externally validated. Six tools had undergone usability testing in samples including White (median, 71%; range, 9%-96%), insured (99%; 97%-100%) women, with college education or higher (60%; 27%-100%). All of the tools were developed and tested in academic settings. Seven (37%) tools showed potential evidence of uptake in clinical practice. The tools had an average quality assessment score of 21 (range, 9-39). Conclusions. There is limited evidence on testing and uptake of breast cancer prevention and screening tools in diverse clinical settings. The development, testing, and integration of tools in academic and nonacademic settings could potentially improve uptake and equitable access to these tools.

Highlights

There were 19 personalized, interactive, Web-based decision tools for breast cancer prevention and screening.Breast cancer outcomes were personalized based on individual clinical characteristics (e.g., age, medical history), genomic risk factors (e.g., BRCA1/2), race and ethnicity, and health behaviors (e.g., smoking). The tools did not include contextual factors (e.g., insurance status, access to screening facilities) that could potentially contribute to breast cancer outcomes.Validation, usability, acceptability, and feasibility testing were conducted mostly among White and/or insured patients with some college education (or higher) in academic settings. There was limited evidence on testing and uptake of the tools in nonacademic clinical settings.

Adherence to hormonal therapy after surgery among older women with ductal carcinoma in situ: Implications for breast cancer-related adverse health events

BACKGROUND

Evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) shows that receipt of hormonal therapy after surgery for estrogen receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) reduces the risk of DCIS and contralateral invasive breast cancer (IBC) but not death from breast cancer. RCTs examined homogeneous samples, and therefore whether this evidence can be generalized to diverse populations is unclear.

METHODS

Population-based data from four state cancer registries (California, New Jersey, New York, and Texas) were analyzed on women aged 65 years and older newly diagnosed with DCIS who underwent surgery with or without radiation during the years 2006-2013. Registry records were merged with Medicare enrollment in Parts A and/or B and D (prescription drugs) and associated claims. Whether adherence to hormonal therapy was associated with adverse breast cancer-related health events was analyzed.

RESULTS

Achieving excellent adherence did not affect death from breast cancer. In contrast, the risk of developing a subsequent breast tumor was 6.24 percentage points (breast-conserving surgery [BCS] with radiation therapy [RT]) and 10.54 percentage points (BCS alone) lower for women with excellent versus low adherence (p < .00001). For excellent versus good adherence, the reduced risk among women who had BCS with and without RT was approximately 3 and 5 percentage points, respectively. A similar pattern emerged for the risk of IBC among women who achieved excellent versus good or low adherence, whereas good versus low adherence comparisons were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of a diverse population-based cohort of women with DCIS demonstrates that achieving excellent adherence to hormonal therapy is critical to minimizing the occurrence of developing subsequent breast tumors.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Our analysis of a diverse population-based cohort of women with ductal carcinoma in situ demonstrates that achieving excellent adherence to hormonal therapy is critical to minimizing the occurrence of developing subsequent breast tumors.

Potential risk of tamoxifen: gut microbiota and inflammation in mice with breast cancer

Objective

Tamoxifen is an effective anti-tumor medicine, but evidence has been provided on tamoxifen-related inflammation as well as its impact on gut microbiota. In this study, we aimed to investigate tamoxifen-induced gut microbiota and inflammation alteration.

Methods

We established a BC xenograft mouse model using the MCF-7 cell line. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was used to investigate gut microbiota. qRT-PCR, western blotting, and cytometric bead array were used to investigate inflammation-related biomarkers. Various bioinformatic approaches were used to analyze the data.

Results

Significant differences in gut microbial composition, characteristic taxa, and microbiome phenotype prediction were observed between control, model, and tamoxifen-treated mice. Furthermore, protein expression of IL-6 and TLR5 was up-regulated in tamoxifen-treated mice, while the mRNA of Tlr5 and Il-6, as well as protein expression of IL-6 and TLR5 in the model group, were down-regulated in the colon. The concentration of IFN-γ, IL-6, and IL12P70 in serum was up-regulated in tamoxifen-treated mice. Moreover, correlation-based clustering analysis demonstrated that inflammation-negatively correlated taxa, including Lachnospiraceae-UCG-006 and Anaerotruncus, were enriched in the model group, while inflammation-positively correlated taxa, including Prevotellaceae_UCG_001 and Akkermansia, were enriched in the tamoxifen-treated group. Finally, colon histologic damage was observed in tamoxifen-treated mice.

Conclusion

Tamoxifen treatment significantly altered gut microbiota and increased inflammation in the breast cancer xenograft mice model. This may be related to tamoxifen-induced intestinal epithelial barrier damage and TLR5 up-regulation.

Evaluation of a Polymeric Topical Formulation of Endoxifen in an Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer Murine Model

Breast cancer (BC) has surpassed lung cancer as the most diagnosed cancer and, in terms of mortality, is the fifth leading cause with 684,996 new deaths (6.7% of all cancer-related deaths) and the highest mortality amongst all cancers (15.5%) in women. Selective estrogen-receptor modulators (SERMs) have been used for the last thirty years for estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer prevention and treatment. Tamoxifen (TAM), the most widely used SERM, is orally administered and its long-term oral administration has been associated to toxicity and adverse side effects. Endoxifen (EDX) is one of the known active metabolites of TAM, with an affinity to ERα 100 times higher than TAM. Furthermore, EDX has shown antiproliferative activity against the ER+ breast cancer cell line MCF-7. Alternative administration routes that avoid the metabolic processing of TAM seem an appealing alternative to its oral administration. With this aim, we have prepared a polymeric gel-like solution of Pluronic® F127 as vehicle for topical administration of EDX. In order to shed light on the potential clinical use of this formulation we have compare it with the standard pharmaceutical form, i.e. orally administered TAM. The biodistribution, antitumor efficacy and toxic effects of topical EDX and oral TAM were evaluated in ER+ tumor xenograft athymic nu/nu mouse models. The results showed a statistically significant antitumor effect and reduced toxicity of topical EDX as compared to oral TAM or empty F127 gel. This novel administration route of SERMs could also have a strong impact in the prevention of BC at early development stages and could help to ameliorate the mortality and morbidity related to this disease.

Non-systemic Approaches for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: Exploring the Potential of Ultra-flexible Combisomes as a Novel Drug Delivery Strategy-a Review

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is currently treated through breast-conserving surgery (lumpectomy), radiation therapy, breast-removing surgery (mastectomy), and hormone therapy to prevent further progression into invasive breast cancer and recurrence. Discrepancies concerning the prognosis of DCIS have sparked controversy about adequate treatment. Considering the severe medical and psychological consequences of mastectomy, developing a treatment approach that arrests the progression of DCIS to the invasive stage without affecting the non-cancerous cells is of utmost importance. In the current review, the problems associated with the diagnosis and management of DCIS have been thoroughly discussed. A summary of the route of administration and drug delivery systems to manage DCIS was also provoked. Innovative ultra-flexible combisomes were also proposed for the effective management of DCIS. Prevention is essential in managing the risk of DCIS and reducing the risk of progression to invasive breast cancer. While prevention is vital, it is not always possible to prevent DCIS, and in some cases, treatment may be necessary. Hence, this review recommends that ultra-flexible combisomes administered as a topical gel provide a non-systemic approach for managing DCIS and thus significantly minimize the side effects and costs associated with existing therapies.

Scalable Feature Engineering from Electronic Free Text Notes to Supplement Confounding Adjustment of Claims-Based Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies

Natural language processing (NLP) tools turn free-text notes (FTNs) from electronic health records (EHRs) into data features that can supplement confounding adjustment in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. However, current applications are difficult to scale. We used unsupervised NLP to generate high-dimensional feature spaces from FTNs to improve prediction of drug exposure and outcomes compared with claims-based analyses. We linked Medicare claims with EHR data to generate three cohort studies comparing different classes of medications on the risk of various clinical outcomes. We used "bag-of-words" to generate features for the top 20,000 most prevalent terms from FTNs. We compared machine learning (ML) prediction algorithms using different sets of candidate predictors: Set1 (39 researcher-specified variables), Set2 (Set1 + ML-selected claims codes), and Set3 (Set1 + ML-selected NLP-generated features), vs. Set4 (Set1 + 2 + 3). When modeling treatment choice, we observed a consistent pattern across the examples: ML models utilizing Set4 performed best followed by Set2, Set3, then Set1. When modeling the outcome risk, there was little to no improvement beyond models based on Set1. Supplementing claims data with NLP-generated features from free text notes improved prediction of prescribing choices but had little or no improvement on clinical risk prediction. These findings have implications for strategies to improve confounding using EHR data in pharmacoepidemiologic studies.

Older adult preferences regarding benefits and harms of statin and aspirin therapy for cardiovascular primary prevention

Objective

Personalizing preventive therapies for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is particularly important for older adults, as they tend to have multiple chronic conditions, increased risk for medication adverse effects, and may have heterogenous preferences when weighing health outcomes. However, little is known about outcome preferences related to ASCVD preventive therapies in older adults.

Methods

In May 2021, using an established online panel, KnowledgePanel, we surveyed older US adults aged 65-84 years without history of ASCVD on outcome preferences related to statin therapy (benefit outcomes to be reduced by the therapy: heart attack, stroke; adverse effects: diabetes, abnormal liver test, muscle pain) or aspirin therapy (benefit outcomes: heart attack, stroke; adverse effects: brain bleed, bowel bleed, stomach ulcer). We used standardized best-worst scores (range of -1 for "least worrisome" to +1 for "most worrisome") and conditional logistic regression to examine the relative importance of the outcomes.

Results

In this study, 607 ASCVD-free participants (median age 74, 46% male, 81% White) were included; 304 and 303 completed the statin and aspirin versions of the survey, respectively. For statin-related outcomes, stroke and heart attack were most worrisome (score 0.55; 95% CI 0.51, 0.60) and (0.53; 0.48, 0.58), followed by potential harms of diabetes (-0.07; -0.10, -0.03), abnormal liver test (-0.25; -0.29, -0.20), and muscle pain (-0.77; -0.82, -0.73). For aspirin-related outcomes, stroke and heart attack were similarly most worrisome (0.48; 0.43, 0.52) and (0.43; 0.38, 0.48), followed by brain bleed (0.30; 0.25, 0.34), bowel bleed (-0.31; -0.33, -0.28), and stomach ulcer (-0.90; -0.92, -0.87). Conditional logistic regression and subgroup analyses by age, sex, and race yielded similar results.

Conclusions

Older adults generally consider outcomes related to benefits of ASCVD primary preventive therapies-stroke and heart attack-more important than their adverse effects. Integrating patient preferences with risk assessment is an important next step for personalizing ASCVD preventive therapies for older adults.

Associations of Biomarker-Calibrated Healthy Eating Index-2010 Scores with Chronic Disease Risk and Their Dependency on Energy Intake and Body Mass Index in Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

Prior studies examined associations between the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and chronic disease risk based on self-reported diet without measurement error correction.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to test associations between biomarker calibration of the food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ)-derived HEI-2010 with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants.

METHODS

Data were derived from WHI postmenopausal women (n = 100,374) aged 50-79 y at enrollment (1993-1998) at 40 US clinical centers, linked to nutritional biomarker substudies and outcomes over subsequent decades of follow-up. Baseline or year 1 FFQ-derived HEI-2010 scores were calibrated with nutritional biomarkers and participant characteristics (e.g., BMI) for systematic measurement error correction. Calibrated data were then used in HR models examining associations with incidence of CVD (total, subtypes, mortality), cancer (total, subtypes, mortality), and T2D in WHI participants with approximately 2 decades of follow-up. Models were multivariable-adjusted with further adjustment for BMI and doubly labeled water (DLW)-calibrated energy.

RESULTS

Multivariable-adjusted HRs modeled a 20% increment in HEI-2010 score in relation to outcomes. HRs were modest using uncalibrated HEI-2010 scores (HRs = 0.91-1.09). Using biomarker-calibrated HEI-2010, 20% increments in scores yielded multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of 0.75 (0.60, 0.93) for coronary heart disease; 0.75 (0.61, 0.91) for myocardial infarction; 0.96 (0.92, 1.01) for stroke; 0.88 (0.75, 1.02) for CVD mortality; 0.81 (0.70, 0.94) for colorectal cancer; 0.81 (0.74, 0.88) for breast cancer; 0.79 (0.73, 0.87) for cancer mortality; and 0.45 (0.36-0.55) for T2D. Except for cancer mortality and T2D incidence, results became null when adjusted for DLW-calibrated energy intake and BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarker calibration of FFQ-derived HEI-2010 was associated with lower CVD and cancer incidence and mortality and lower T2D incidence in postmenopausal women. Attenuation after adjustment with BMI and DLW-calibrated energy suggests that energy intake and/or obesity are strong drivers of diet-related chronic disease risk in postmenopausal women. The Women's Health Initiative is registered at clinicaltrials.gov at NCT00000611.

Treatments for Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Systematic Review, Network Meta-analysis, and Benefit-harm assessment

CONTEXT

Multiple treatments for metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) are available, but their effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and benefit-harm balance remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess clinical effectiveness regarding survival and HRQoL, safety, and benefit-harm balance of mHSPC treatments.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and ClinicalTrials.gov until March 1, 2022. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing docetaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide, darolutamide, and radiotherapy combined with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) mutually or with ADT alone were eligible. Three reviewers independently performed screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment in duplicate.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Across ten RCTs, we found relevant survival benefits for ADT + docetaxel (high certainty according to the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation [GRADE]), ADT + abiraterone (moderate certainty), ADT + enzalutamide (low certainty), ADT + apalutamide (high certainty), and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide (high certainty) compared with ADT alone. ADT + radiotherapy appeared effective only in low-volume de novo mHSPC. We found a short-term HRQoL decrease lasting 3-6 mo for ADT + docetaxel (moderate certainty) and a potential HRQoL benefit for ADT + abiraterone up to 24 mo of follow-up (moderate certainty) compared with ADT alone. There was no difference in HRQoL for ADT + enzalutamide, ADT + apalutamide, or ADT + radiotherapy over ADT alone (low-high certainty). Grade 3-5 adverse effect rates were increased with all systemic combination treatments. A benefit-harm assessment showed high probabilities (>60%) for a net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + enzalutamide, and ADT + apalutamide, while ADT + docetaxel and ADT + docetaxel + darolutamide appeared unlikely (<40%) to be beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite substantial survival benefits, no systemic combination treatment showed a clear HRQoL improvement compared with ADT alone. We found evidence for a short-term HRQoL decline with ADT + docetaxel and a higher net clinical benefit with ADT + abiraterone, ADT + apalutamide and ADT + enzalutamide. While individualized decision-making remains important and economic factors need to be considered, the evidence may support a general preference for the combination of ADT with androgen receptor axis-targeted therapies over docetaxel-containing strategies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We assessed different combination treatments for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. While survival was better with all systemic combination treatments, there was no clear improvement in health-related quality of life compared with androgen deprivation therapy alone. Novel hormonal combination treatments had a more favorable benefit-harm balance than combination treatments that include chemotherapy.

Polygenic scores in biomedical research

Public health strategies aimed at disease prevention or early detection and intervention have the potential to advance human health worldwide. However, their success depends on the identification of risk factors that underlie disease burden in the general population. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in common complex diseases or traits. By calculating a weighted sum of the number of trait-associated alleles harboured by an individual, a polygenic score (PGS), also called a polygenic risk score (PRS), can be constructed that reflects an individual’s estimated genetic predisposition for a given phenotype. Here, we ask six experts to give their opinions on the utility of these probabilistic tools, their strengths and limitations, and the remaining barriers that need to be overcome for their equitable use.

Optimal breast cancer risk reduction policies tailored to personal risk level

Depending on personal and hereditary factors, each woman has a different risk of developing breast cancer, one of the leading causes of death for women. For women with a high-risk of breast cancer, their risk can be reduced by two main therapeutic approaches: 1) preventive treatments such as hormonal therapies (i.e., tamoxifen, raloxifene, exemestane); or 2) a risk reduction surgery (i.e., mastectomy). Existing national clinical guidelines either fail to incorporate or have limited use of the personal risk of developing breast cancer in their proposed risk reduction strategies. As a result, they do not provide enough resolution on the benefit-risk trade-off of an intervention policy as personal risk changes. In addressing this problem, we develop a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) model with the objective of maximizing the patient's total expected quality-adjusted life years. We find several useful insights some of which contradict the existing national breast cancer risk reduction recommendations. For example, we find that mastectomy is the optimal choice for the border-line high-risk women who are between ages 22 and 38. Additionally, in contrast to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommendations, we find that exemestane is a plausible, in fact, the best, option for high-risk postmenopausal women.

Tamoxifen Increased Parasite Burden and Induced a Series of Histopathological and Immunohistochemical Changes During Chronic Toxoplasmosis in Experimentally Infected Mice

The global distribution of breast cancer and the opportunistic nature of the parasite have resulted in many patients with breast cancer becoming infected with toxoplasmosis. However, very limited information is available about the potential effects of tamoxifen on chronic toxoplasmosis and its contribution to the reactivation of the latent infection. The present study investigated the potential effects of tamoxifen on chronic toxoplasmosis in animal models (Swiss albino mice). Following induction of chronic toxoplasmosis and treatment with the drug for 14 and 28 days, the anti-parasitic effects of tamoxifen were evaluated by parasitological assessment and counting of Toxoplasma cysts. In addition, the effects of the drug on the parasite load were evaluated and quantitated using TaqMan real-time quantitative PCR followed by investigation of the major histopathological changes and immunohistochemical findings. Interestingly, tamoxifen increased the parasite burden on animals treated with the drug during 14 and 28 days as compared with the control group. The quantification of the DNA concentrations of Toxoplasma P29 gene after the treatment with the drug revealed a higher parasite load in both treated groups vs. control groups. Furthermore, treatment with tamoxifen induced a series of histopathological and immunohistochemical changes in the kidney, liver, brain, and uterus, revealing the exacerbating effect of tamoxifen against chronic toxoplasmosis. These changes were represented by the presence of multiple T. gondii tissue cysts in the lumen of proximal convoluted tubules associated with complete necrosis in their lining epithelium of the kidney section. Meanwhile, liver tissue revealed multiple T. gondii tissue cysts in hepatic parenchyma which altered the structure of hepatocytes. Moreover, clusters of intracellular tachyzoites were observed in the lining epithelium of endometrium associated with severe endometrial necrosis and appeared as diffuse nuclear pyknosis combined with sever mononuclear cellular infiltration. Brain tissues experienced the presence of hemorrhages in pia mater and multiple T. gondii tissue cysts in brain tissue. The severity of the lesions was maximized by increasing the duration of treatment. Collectively, the study concluded novel findings in relation to the potential role of tamoxifen during chronic toxoplasmosis. These findings are very important for combating the disease, particularly in immunocompromised patients which could be life-threatening.

Effect of inpatient breast cancer education and risk assessment on mammography utilization among hospitalized women post discharge

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate prevalence of nonadherence to breast cancer screening guidelines after bedside educational intervention and informed individualized risk assessment score during an inpatient stay.

METHODS

A prospective intervention study was conducted among 507 cancer-free (except skin cancer) women aged 50-75 years hospitalized to a general medicine service. Study intervention included one-on-one bedside education via handout and videos about breast cancer screening and informed individualized risk assessment using the Gail risk model to predict 5-year risk for breast cancer development. Study outcomes were measured using posthospitalization follow-up survey to determine if intervention resulted in improved adherence to breast cancer screening. Chi-square and unpaired t-tests were utilized to compare population characteristics.

RESULTS

The mean age for the study population was 60.5 years (SD = 6.9), the mean 5-year Gail risk score was 1.77 (SD = 1), and 36% of women were African American. One hundred sixty nine (33%) hospitalized women were nonadherent to breast cancer screening recommendations. Only 15% of the nonadherent women were reachable for follow-up survey, and 42% of these women self-reported adherence to screening mammography after a mean follow-up period of 27 months.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that most women who are nonadherent to breast cancer screening remain nonadherent after hospital discharge despite educational interventions. Our study intervention was only partially successful in enhancing breast cancer screening among hospitalized women who were overdue and at high risk. Further studies need to evaluate strategies to overcome the barriers and improve adherence whenever patients encounter health care system regardless of clinical locale.

Endocrine therapy initiation among women with stage I-III invasive, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer from 2001-2016

PURPOSE

This retrospective cohort study examined patterns of endocrine therapy initiation over time and by demographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics.

METHODS

We included 7777 women from three U.S. integrated healthcare systems diagnosed with incident stage I-III hormone receptor-positive breast cancer between 2001 and 2016. We extracted endocrine therapy from pharmacy dispensings, defining initiation as dispensings within 12 months of diagnosis. Demographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics were collected from electronic health records. Using generalized linear models with a log link and Poisson distribution, we estimated initiation of any endocrine therapy, tamoxifen, and aromatase inhibitors (AI) over time with relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, tumor characteristics, diagnosis year, other treatment, and study site.

RESULTS

Among women aged 20+ (mean 62 years), 6329 (81.4%) initiated any endocrine therapy, and 1448 (18.6%) did not initiate endocrine therapy. Tamoxifen initiation declined from 67 to 15% between 2001 and 2016. AI initiation increased from 6 to 69% between 2001 and 2016 in women aged ≥ 55 years. The proportion of women who did not initiate endocrine therapy decreased from 19 to 12% between 2002 and 2014 then increased to 17% by 2016. After adjustment, women least likely to initiate endocrine therapy were older (RR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.77-0.85 for age 75+ vs. 55-64), Black (RR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-1.00 vs. white), and had stage I disease (RR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91 vs. stage III).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite an increase in AI use over time, at least one in six eligible women did not initiate endocrine therapy, highlighting opportunities for improving endocrine therapy uptake in breast cancer survivors.

Capturing the Rest: Inpatient Mammography for Nonadherent Hospitalized Women

INTRODUCTION

More than a third of hospitalized women are overdue or nonadherent to breast cancer screening guidelines, and almost a third of them are also at high risk for developing breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of coordinating inpatient breast cancer screening mammography for these women before their discharge from the hospital.

METHODS

A prospective intervention study was conducted among 101 nonadherent women aged 50-74 years who were hospitalized to a general medicine service. Sociodemographic, reproductive history, family history of breast cancer, and medical comorbidities data were collected for all patients from January 2015 to October 2016. The data were analyzed in March 2018. Fisher's exact tests and unpaired t-tests were utilized to compare the characteristics of the study population.

RESULTS

Of the 101 women enrolled who were nonadherent to breast cancer screening recommendations, their mean age was 59.3 (SD=6) years, the mean 5-year Gail risk score was 1.63 (SD=0.69), and 29% of the women were African American. Almost 80% (n=79) underwent inpatient screening mammography. All women who underwent screening mammography during their inpatient stay were extremely satisfied with the experience. The convenience of having screening mammography while hospitalized was reported to be a major facilitator of completing the overdue screening. All nurses (100%) taking care of these women believed that this practice should become part of the standard of care, and most hospitalist physicians (66%) agreed that this practice is feasible.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that it is possible to coordinate mammography for hospitalized women who were overdue for screening and at high risk for developing breast cancer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT04164251.

Personalising add-on treatment with inhaled corticosteroids in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a benefit-harm modelling study

BACKGROUND

Since the benefit-harm balance of adding inhaled corticosteroids to long-acting β₂-agonists (LABA) and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA) for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is unclear, we evaluated this addition for a range of patient profiles.

METHODS

Analyses considered the effects of low-to-moderate doses of inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA compared with LABA and LAMA alone, outcome incidences, and preference weights assigned to averted moderate-to-severe exacerbations (benefit) and severe pneumonia, candidiasis, and dysphonia (harm). Using exponential models, we estimated the preference weight-adjusted 2-year net clinical benefit (ie, benefits outweighing harms) indices. Exacerbation risk thresholds for triggering inhaled corticosteroids, LABA, and LAMA were established when the probability of a 2-year net clinical benefit reached 60%. We estimated the proportion of patients benefiting from added inhaled corticosteroids using an externally validated prediction model for acute exacerbations in primary care.

FINDINGS

Adding low-to-moderate dose inhaled corticosteroids to LABA and LAMA provided a net clinical benefit in patients with a 2-year baseline exacerbation risk of 54-83%. Low-dose inhaled corticosteroids showed a net clinical benefit if the baseline risk was 40-91%, but not at higher doses. The benefit was modified by blood eosinophil count (BEC) and age. Although no net benefit was associated with a BEC of less than 150 cells per μL, patients with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more had a net benefit from low-dose inhaled corticosteroids with a 2-year exacerbation risk of 32-95% in those aged 40-79 years and 41-93% in those older than 80 years. A moderate dose of inhaled corticosteroids showed a net benefit in patients younger than 80 years with a BEC of 150 cells per μL or more at 52-86% 2-year exacerbation risk. Depending on the subgroups, the proportion of patients with a net benefit from added inhaled corticosteroids ranged from 0 to 68%.

INTERPRETATION

The net clinical benefit of adding different inhaled corticosteroid doses to LABA and LAMA varies greatly with exacerbation risk, BEC, and age. Personalised treatment decisions based on these factors and predicted exacerbation risks might reduce overtreatment and undertreatment with inhaled corticosteroids.

FUNDING

None.

Elevated risk thresholds predict endocrine risk-reducing medication use in the Athena screening registry

Risk-reducing endocrine therapy use, though the benefit is validated, is extremely low. The FDA has approved tamoxifen and raloxifene for a 5-year Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) risk ≥ 1.67%. We examined the threshold at which high-risk women are likely to be using endocrine risk-reducing therapies among Athena Breast Health Network participants from 2011-2018. We identified high-risk women by a 5-year BCRAT risk ≥ 1.67% and those in the top 10% and 2.5% risk thresholds by age. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of current medication use based on these thresholds using logistic regression. One thousand two hundred and one (1.2%) of 104,223 total participants used medication. Of the 33,082 participants with 5-year BCRAT risk ≥ 1.67%, 772 (2.3%) used medication. Of 2445 in the top 2.5% threshold, 209 (8.6%) used medication. Participants whose 5-year risk exceeded 1.67% were more likely to use medication than those whose risk was below this threshold, OR 3.94 (95% CI = 3.50-4.43). The top 2.5% was most strongly associated with medication usage, OR 9.50 (8.13-11.09) compared to the bottom 97.5%. Women exceeding a 5-year BCRAT ≥ 1.67% had modest medication use. We demonstrate that women in the top 2.5% have higher odds of medication use than those in the bottom 97.5% and compared to a risk of 1.67%. The top 2.5% threshold would more effectively target medication use and is being tested prospectively in a randomized control clinical trial.

Mediation analysis of racial disparities in triple-negative breast cancer incidence among postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is disproportionately higher in Black women relative to White women. The objective of this study was to examine to what extent the association between race/ethnicity and risk of TNBC is mediated by potentially modifiable factors.

METHODS

A total of 128,623 Black and White women aged 50-79 years from the Women's Health Initiative were followed for a mean of 15.8 years. 643 incident TNBC cases (92 Black women and 551 White women) were confirmed by medical record review. Mediation analyses were conducted using an approach under a counterfactual framework.

RESULTS

Black women had approximately twofold higher risk of TNBC compared with white women (HR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.52-2.45). We observed that 48% of the racial disparity was mediated by metabolic dysfunction defined by having 3 or more cardiometabolic risk factors including elevated waist circumference, having history of diabetes, high cholesterol and hypertension. The racial disparity was not significantly mediated by other factors studied, including socioeconomic, lifestyle or reproductive factors.

CONCLUSION

Our study observed that approximately half of the racial disparity between postmenopausal Black and White women in TNBC incidence was driven by metabolic dysfunction.

Endocrine prevention of breast cancer

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common non-cutaneous malignancy among women worldwide and is a significant cause of morbidity, mortality, and national health care expenditure. Unfortunately, with few exceptions like alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical activity, most BC risk factors are unmodifiable. Antiestrogen endocrine therapy, commonly known as BC chemoprevention, is an effective method of BC prevention. In multiple randomized trials, two selective estrogen receptor modulators - tamoxifen and raloxifene, and two aromatase inhibitors - exemestane and anastrozole have reduced BC incidence by 50%-65% in high-risk women. An estimated 15% of the US women between 35 and 79 years of age may qualify as high risk for BC, yet a small percentage of these women will ever have a formal BC risk assessment or a discussion of endocrine prevention options. The etiology of underutilization of endocrine prevention of BC is multifactorial - infrequent use of BC risk assessment tools in the primary care settings, insufficient knowledge of BC risk assessment tools and antiestrogen agents among primary care providers, concerns of side effects, inadequate time for counseling during primary care visit, and lack of predictive biomarkers may play significant roles. Many small studies incorporating risk assessment tools and decision-making aids showed minimal success in enhancing endocrine prevention. One critical factor for underutilization of endocrine prevention is low uptake of endocrine prevention by high-risk women even when appropriately recommended. Furthermore, adherence to BC endocrine prevention is unsatisfactorily low. Despite the current infrequent usage, endocrine prevention has the potential to reduce the public health burden of BC significantly. Innovative approaches like finding new agents, alternative dosing and schedule of currently available agents, transdermal medication delivery, increased public and professional awareness, and policymakers' commitments may bring the desired changes.

Utilization of breast cancer risk prediction models by cancer genetic counselors in clinical practice predominantly in the United States

Risk assessment in cancer genetic counseling is essential in identifying individuals at high risk for developing breast cancer to recommend appropriate screening and management options. Historically, many breast cancer risk prediction models were developed to calculate an individual's risk to develop breast cancer or to carry a pathogenic variant in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. However, how or when genetic counselors use these models in clinical settings is currently unknown. We explored genetic counselors' breast cancer risk model usage patterns including frequency of use, reasons for using or not using models, and change in usage since the adoption of multi-gene panel testing. An online survey was developed and sent to members of the National Society of Genetic Counselors; board-certified genetic counselors whose practice included cancer genetic counseling were eligible to participate in the study. The response rate was estimated at 23% (243/1,058), and respondents were predominantly working in the United States. The results showed that 93% of all respondents use at least one breast cancer risk prediction model in their clinical practice. Among the six risk models selected for the study, the Tyrer-Cuzick (IBIS) model was used most frequently (95%), and the BOADICEA model was used least (40%). Determining increased or decreased surveillance and breast MRI eligibility were the two most common reasons for most model usage, while time consumption and difficulty in navigation were the two most common reasons for not using models. This study provides insight into perceived benefits and limitations of risk models in clinical use in the United States, which may be useful information for software developers, genetic counseling program curriculum developers, and currently practicing cancer genetic counselors.

Implementation of Risk-reducing Strategies for Breast Cancer is Long Overdue

Despite strong evidence that it is efficacious, chemoprevention has been underused in eligible women. Reasons offered not to adopt and initiate strategies to reduce the risk of breast cancer include the fear of adverse effects, medication costs, lack of reasonably accurate and feasible methods for assessing an individual's personal risk, and lack of established risk thresholds that maximize benefit and minimize harms. The article by Macdonald and colleagues remind us that the problem of lack of uptake of risk-reducing medications for breast cancer remains a worldwide clinical challenge despite endorsements from national and international organizations that recommend the use of risk-reducing medications for breast cancer with level I evidence. Several strategies are suggested to improve uptake and utilization of safe and effective chemoprevention medications with high therapeutic indices.See related article by Macdonald et al., p. 131.

Global variation of risk thresholds for initiating statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a benefit-harm balance modelling study

BACKGROUND

We previously showed that the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk threshold to initiate statins for primary prevention depends on the baseline CVD risk, age, sex, and the incidence of statin-related harm outcome and competing risk for non-CVD death. As these factors appear to vary across countries, we aimed in this study to determine country-specific thresholds and provide guidelines a quantitative benefit-harm assessment method for local adaptation.

METHODS

For each of the 186 countries included, we replicated the benefit-harm balance analysis using an exponential model to determine the thresholds to initiate statin use for populations aged 40 to 75 years, with no history of CVD. The analyses took data inputs from a priori studies, including statin effect estimates (network meta-analysis), patient preferences (survey), and baseline incidence of harm outcomes and competing risk for non-CVD (global burden of disease study). We estimated the risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins were more likely to outweigh the harms using a stochastic approach to account for statistical uncertainty of the input parameters.

RESULTS

The 5th and 95th percentiles of the 10-year risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins outweigh the harms across 186 countries ranged between 14 and 20% in men and 19-24% in women, depending on age (i.e., 90% of the country-specific thresholds were in the ranges stated). The median risk thresholds varied from 14 to 18.5% in men and 19 to 22% in women. The between-country variability of the thresholds was slightly attenuated when further adjusted for age resulting, for example, in a 5th and 95th percentiles of 14-16% for ages 40-44 years and 17-21% for ages 70-74 years in men. Some countries, especially the islands of the Western Pacific Region, had higher thresholds to achieve net benefit of statins at 25-36% 10-year CVD risks.

CONCLUSIONS

This extensive benefit-harm analysis modeling shows that a single CVD risk threshold, irrespective of age, sex and country, is not appropriate to initiate statin use globally. Instead, countries need to carefully determine thresholds, considering the national or subnational contexts, to optimize benefits of statins while minimizing related harms and economic burden.

Chocolate Candy and Incident Invasive Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative: An Observational Prospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Laboratory and animal studies suggest an inverse association between chocolate consumption and the risk of cancer. Epidemiological studies have yielded inconsistent evidence.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of chocolate candy consumption with incident, invasive total, breast, colorectal, and lung cancers in a large cohort of postmenopausal American women.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study with a mean 14.8-year follow-up. Chocolate candy intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire. Invasive cancer events were assessed by physician adjudication.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

The Women's Health Initiative Study enrolled 161,808 postmenopausal women at 40 clinical centers nationwide between 1993 and 1998. Of these women, 114,281 with plausible food frequency or biometric data and no missing data on chocolate candy exposure were selected for analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cancer risk in quartiles of chocolate candy consumption with the first quartile as referent.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES

Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

There were 16,164 documented incident invasive cancers, representing an incidence rate of 17.0 per 100 participants and 12.3 per 1000 person years during follow-up among participants without any preexisting cancers or missing outcome data. There were no statistically significant associations for total invasive cancer (P-linear = .47, P-curvature = .14), or invasive breast cancer (P-linear = .77, P-curvature = .26). For colorectal cancer P-linear was .02, P-curvature was .03, and compared with women eating a 1 oz (28.4 g) chocolate candy serving <1 time per month, the hazard ratio for ≥1.5 times/wk was 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.35). This result may be attributable to the excess adiposity associated with frequent chocolate candy consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Women's Health Initiative, there was no significant association between chocolate candy consumption and invasive total or breast cancer. There was a modest 18% higher risk of invasive colorectal cancer for women who ate chocolate candy at least 1.5 times/wk. These results require confirmation.

Birth weight, weight over the adult life course and risk of breast cancer

Breast cancer has been suggested to potentially have prenatal origins. We examined associations between birth weight, body mass index (BMI) at four-time points over 25 years of adulthood, and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, with emphasis on whether the association between birth weight and risk of breast cancer was mediated by weight and height changes over the adult life course. Postmenopausal women (n = 70,397) aged 50-79 years without breast cancer at enrollment (1993-1998) were followed up to 25 years. Weight and height were measured at baseline. Birth weight, and weights at ages 18, 35 and 50 were self-reported. Breast cancer cases were centrally adjudicated. Compared to women with birth weight of 6-8 pounds, women with birth weight of <6 pounds had lower risk of breast cancer (HR = 0.88 95% CI: 0.79-0.99). 44% and 21% of the relationship between birth weight and breast cancer risk was mediated by adult height and weight at baseline, respectively. Birth weight of 8 pounds or more was not associated with risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. Weight gain in adulthood was associated with increased risk of breast cancer regardless of time periods. In conclusion, lower birthweight was associated with lower risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, and this reduction in risk was significantly mediated by childhood or adolescent growth, especially by adult height. Our data suggest that reaching and maintaining a healthy weight during adulthood is key in the prevention of breast cancer.

Robustness of risk-based allocation of resources for disease prevention

Risk models for disease incidence can be useful for allocating resources for disease prevention if risk assessment is not too expensive. Assume there is a preventive intervention that should be given to everyone, but preventive resources are limited. We optimize risk-based prevention strategies and investigate robustness to modeling assumptions. The optimal strategy defines the proportion of the population to be given risk assessment and who should be offered intervention. The optimal strategy depends on the ratio of available resources to resources needed to intervene on everyone, and on the ratio of the costs of risk assessment to intervention. Risk assessment is not recommended if it is too expensive. Preventive efficiency decreases with decreasing compliance to risk assessment or intervention. Risk measurement error has little effect nor does misspecification of the risk distribution. Ignoring population substructure has small effects on optimal prevention strategy but can lead to modest over- or under-spending. We give conditions under which ignoring population substructure has no effect on optimal strategy. Thus, a simple one-population model offers robust guidance on prevention strategy but requires data on available resources, costs of risk assessment and intervention, population risk distribution, and probabilities of acceptance of risk assessment and intervention.

Informing Patient-Centered Care Through Stakeholder Engagement and Highly Stratified Quantitative Benefit-Harm Assessments

OBJECTIVES

In a previous project aimed at informing patient-centered care for people with multiple chronic conditions, we performed highly stratified quantitative benefit-harm assessments for 2 top priority questions. In this current work, our goal was to describe the process and approaches we developed and to qualitatively glean important elements from it that address patient-centered care.

METHODS

We engaged patients, caregivers, clinicians, and guideline developers as stakeholder representatives throughout the process of the quantitative benefit-harm assessment and investigated whether the benefit-harm balance differed based on patient preferences and characteristics (stratification). We refined strategies to select the most applicable, valid, and precise evidence.

RESULTS

Two processes were important when assessing the balance of benefits and harms of interventions: (1) engaging stakeholders and (2) stratification by patient preferences and characteristics. Engaging patients and caregivers through focus groups, preference surveys, and as co-investigators provided value in prioritizing research questions, identifying relevant clinical outcomes, and clarifying the relative importance of these outcomes. Our strategies to select evidence for stratified benefit-harm assessments considered consistency across outcomes and subgroups. By quantitatively estimating the range in the benefit-harm balance resulting from true variation in preferences, we clarified whether the benefit-harm balance is preference sensitive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approaches for engaging patients and caregivers at all phases of the stratified quantitative benefit-harm assessments were feasible and revealed how sensitive the benefit-harm balance is to patient characteristics and individual preferences. Accordingly, this sensitivity can suggest to guideline developers when to tailor recommendations for specific patient subgroups or when to explicitly leave decision making to individual patients and their providers.

Unveiling the Impact of Morphine on Tamoxifen Metabolism in Mice in vivo

Background: Tamoxifen is used to treat breast cancer and cancer recurrences. After administration, tamoxifen is converted into two more potent antitumor compounds, 4OH-tamoxifen and endoxifen by the CYP3A4/5 and 2D6 enzymes in human. These active compounds are inactivated by the same UDP-glucuronosyltransferase isoforms as those involved in the metabolism of morphine. Importantly, cancer-associated pain can be treated with morphine, and the common metabolic pathway of morphine and tamoxifen suggests potential clinically relevant interactions.

Methods: Mouse liver microsomes were used to determine the impact of morphine on 4OH-tamoxifen metabolism in vitro. For in vivo experiments, female mice were first injected with tamoxifen alone and then with tamoxifen and morphine. Blood was collected, and LC-MS/MS was used to quantify tamoxifen, 4OH-tamoxifen, N-desmethyltamoxifen, endoxifen, 4OH-tamoxifen-glucuronide, and endoxifen-glucuronide.

Results:In vitro, we found increased K_m values for the production of 4OH-tamoxifen-glucuronide in the presence of morphine, suggesting an inhibitory effect on 4OH-tamoxifen glucuronidation. Conversely, in vivo morphine treatment decreased 4OH-tamoxifen levels in the blood while dramatically increasing the formation of inactive metabolites 4OH-tamoxifen-glucuronide and endoxifen-glucuronide.

Conclusions: Our findings emphasize the need for caution when extrapolating results from in vitro metabolic assays to in vivo drug metabolism interactions. Importantly, morphine strongly impacts tamoxifen metabolism in mice. It suggests that tamoxifen efficiency could be reduced when both drugs are co-administered in a clinical setting, e.g., to relieve pain in breast cancer patients. Further studies are needed to assess the potential for tamoxifen-morphine metabolic interactions in humans.

Breast cancer risk reduction: Notable achievements and remaining challenges

Millions of women in the United States are at increased risk of breast cancer. Multiple prospective, randomized clinical trials have demonstrated both the efficacy and safety of selective estrogen receptor modulators and aromatase inhibitors in reducing substantially the risk of invasive breast cancer in women at increased risk. Published tables are available to aid clinicians in shared decision-making regarding drug interventions with their patients who are at increased risk of breast cancer. Both professional and governmental agencies have advised that these interventions should be offered to women at increased risk of breast cancer. Doing so would reduce breast cancer morbidity substantially.

Patterns of Breast Imaging Use Among Women with a Personal History of Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

National patterns of breast imaging in women with a personal history of breast cancer (PHBC) are unknown making evaluation of annual surveillance recommendations a challenge.

OBJECTIVE

To describe variation in use of mammography and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations beginning 6 months after diagnosis among women with PHBC in US community practice. We report on the breast imaging indication, imaging intervals, and time since breast cancer diagnosis by examination type.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study using cross-sectional data.

SETTING

Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium breast imaging facilities.

PARTICIPANTS

19,955 women diagnosed between 2005 and 2012 with AJCC stage 0-III incident breast cancer who had 69,386 mammograms and 3,553 breast MRI examinations from January 2005 to September 2013; median follow-up of 37.6 months (interquartile range, 22.1-60.7).

MAIN MEASURES

Breast imaging indication, imaging intervals, and time since breast cancer diagnosis by examination type.

KEY RESULTS

Among women with a PHBC who received breast imaging, 89.4% underwent mammography alone, 0.8% MRI alone, and 10.3% had both mammography and MRI. About half of mammograms and MRIs were indicated for surveillance vs. diagnostic, with an increase in the proportion of surveillance exams as time from diagnosis increased (mammograms, 45.7% at 1 year to 72.2% after 5 years; MRIs, 54.8% at 1 year to 78.6% after 5 years). In the first post-diagnosis period, 32.8% of women had > 2 breast imaging examinations and of these, 65.8% were less than 6 months apart. During the first 5-year post-diagnosis, the frequency of examinations per year decreased and the interval between examinations shifted towards annual examinations.

CONCLUSION

In women with a PHBC who received post-diagnosis imaging, a third underwent multiple breast imaging examinations per year during the first 2-year post-diagnosis despite recommendations for annual exams. As time since diagnosis increases, imaging indication shifts from diagnostic to surveillance.

Breast Cancer Risk Model Requirements for Counseling, Prevention, and Screening

Background

Incorporation of polygenic risk scores and mammographic density into models to predict breast cancer incidence can increase discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) from 0.6 for models based only on epidemiologic factors to 0.7. It is timely to assess what impact these improvements will have on individual counseling and on public health prevention and screening strategies, and to determine what further improvements are needed.

Methods

We studied various clinical and public health applications using a log-normal distribution of risk.

Results

Provided they are well calibrated, even risk models with AUCs of 0.6 to 0.7 provide useful perspective for individual counseling and for weighing the harms and benefits of preventive interventions in the clinic. At the population level, they are helpful for designing preventive intervention trials, for assessing reductions in absolute risk from reducing exposure to modifiable risk factors, and for resource allocation (although a higher AUC would be desirable for risk-based allocation). Other public health applications require higher AUCs that can only be achieved with risk predictors 1.6 to 8.8 times as strong as all those yet discovered combined. Such applications are preventing an appreciable proportion of population disease when employing a high-risk prevention strategy and deciding who should be screened for subclinical disease.

Conclusions

Current and foreseeable risk models are useful for counseling and some prevention activities, but given the daunting challenge of achieving, for example, an AUC of 0.8, considerable effort should be put into finding effective preventive interventions and screening strategies with fewer adverse effects.

Personalized and typical concurrent risk of limitations in social activity and mobility in older persons with multiple chronic conditions and polypharmacy

PURPOSE

We define personalized concurrent risk (PCR) as the subject-specific probability of an index outcome within a defined interval of time, while currently at risk for a separate outcome, where the outcomes are not mutually exclusive and can be jointly modeled with a shared random intercept. We further define typical concurrent risk as the risk obtained by setting the random intercept to null.

METHODS

Drawing data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (cohorts 2008-2013), we jointly model limitations in social activity and mobility over two years among older community-dwelling persons with both hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The joint model uses inverse probability of treatment weighting based on each participant's baseline propensity of polypharmacy (≥5 classes of medication).

RESULTS

Even among participants with the same covariates, older persons with multiple chronic conditions exhibit wide-ranging heterogeneity of the treatment effect from polypharmacy, a risk factor for negative health outcomes among older persons. The magnitude of the PCRs is dominated by the value of the subject-specific random effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimates of PCR and typical concurrent risk can be calculated from national or institutional data sets and may facilitate the practice of personalized care for older patients with multiple chronic conditions.

Balance of benefits and harms of different blood pressure targets in people with multiple chronic conditions: a quantitative benefit-harm assessment

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies suggest that a systolic blood pressure (SBP) target of 120 mm Hg is appropriate for people with hypertension, but this is debated particularly in people with multiple chronic conditions (MCC). We aimed to quantitatively determine whether benefits of a lower SBP target justify increased risks of harm in people with MCC, considering patient-valued outcomes and their relative importance.

DESIGN

Highly stratified quantitative benefit-harm assessment based on various input data identified as the most valid and applicable from a systematic review of evidence and based on weights from a patient preference survey.

SETTING

Outpatient care.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypertensive patients, grouped by age, gender, prior history of stroke, chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

INTERVENTIONS

SBP target of 120 versus 140 mm Hg for patients without history of stroke.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Probability that the benefits of a SBP target of 120 mm Hg outweigh the harms compared with 140 mm Hg over 5 years (primary) with thresholds >0.6 (120 mm Hg better), <0.4 (140 mm Hg better) and 0.4 to 0.6 (unclear), number of prevented clinical events (secondary), calculated with the Gail/National Cancer Institute approach.

RESULTS

Considering individual patient preferences had a substantial impact on the benefit-harm balance. With average preferences, 120 mm Hg was the better target compared with 140 mm Hg for many subgroups of patients without prior stroke, especially in patients over 75. For women below 65 with chronic kidney disease and without diabetes and prior stroke, 140 mm Hg was better. The analyses did not include mild adverse effects, and apply only to patients who tolerate antihypertensive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

For most patients, a lower SBP target was beneficial, but this depended also on individual preferences, implying individual decision-making is important. Our modelling allows for individualised treatment targets based on patient preferences, age, gender and co-morbidities.

Risk versus Benefit of Chemoprevention among Raloxifene and Tamoxifen Users with a Family History of Breast Cancer

Tamoxifen and raloxifene have been approved for the primary prevention of breast cancer in high-risk women, but are associated with an increased risk of serious side effects. Few studies have characterized risk-benefit profiles for chemoprevention among women who initiate tamoxifen or raloxifene outside of a clinical trial setting. Use of raloxifene and tamoxifen for chemoprevention was self-reported in 2014 to 2016 by participants in The Sister Study, a prospective cohort of women with a sister who had been diagnosed with breast cancer. After exclusions, 432 current raloxifene users and 96 current tamoxifen users were matched to 4,307 and 953 nonusers, respectively, on age and year of cohort enrollment. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate characteristics associated with chemoprevention use. Risk-benefit profiles were examined using published indices that assess the level of evidence (none, moderate, strong) that the benefits of chemoprevention outweigh the risk of serious side effects. Among current chemoprevention users, 44% of tamoxifen users and 5% of raloxifene users had no evidence of a net benefit. In analyses of factors associated with chemoprevention use, having strong evidence of benefit was a significant predictor of raloxifene use, but not of tamoxifen use. In our sample of women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer, raloxifene was more commonly used for breast cancer prevention than tamoxifen. Most raloxifene users, but <60% of tamoxifen users, were likely to benefit. Use of risk-benefit tables can help women and their healthcare providers make an informed decision about breast cancer chemoprevention.

Estimating the decision curve and its precision from three study designs

The decision curve plots the net benefit ( N B ) of a risk model for making decisions over a range of risk thresholds, corresponding to different ratios of misclassification costs. We discuss three methods to estimate the decision curve, together with corresponding methods of inference and methods to compare two risk models at a given risk threshold. One method uses risks (R) and a binary event indicator (Y) on the entire validation cohort. This method makes no assumptions on how well-calibrated the risk model is nor on the incidence of disease in the population and is comparatively robust to model miscalibration. If one assumes that the model is well-calibrated, one can compute a much more precise estimate of N B based on risks R alone. However, if the risk model is miscalibrated, serious bias can result. Case-control data can also be used to estimate N B if the incidence (or prevalence) of the event ( Y = 1 ) is known. This strategy has comparable efficiency to using the full ( R , Y ) data, and its efficiency is only modestly less than that for the full ( R , Y ) data if the incidence is estimated from the mean of Y. We estimate variances using influence functions and propose a bootstrap procedure to obtain simultaneous confidence bands around the decision curve for a range of thresholds. The influence function approach to estimate variances can also be applied to cohorts derived from complex survey samples instead of simple random samples.

Breast Cancer Chemoprevention in an Integrated Health Care Setting

PURPOSE

National guidelines encourage counseling high-risk women about pharmacologic breast cancer risk reduction. We evaluated the use of integrated health care data to identify and characterize breast cancer chemoprevention use. Chemoprevention included US Food and Drug Administration-approved use of tamoxifen and raloxifene and off-label use of aromatase inhibitors (AIs).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using electronic medical and pharmacy records (EMRs) in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care system, we sampled cancer-free women age 35 to 69 years who used tamoxifen, raloxifene, exemestane, anastrozole, or letrozole from 2005 to 2013. Risk-benefit profiles were calculated for tamoxifen and raloxifene using published indices. The proportion of days covered was calculated from pharmacy records to assess adherence.

RESULTS

Among 90 chemoprevention users (confirmed with EMR review from a sample of 371 women), 74% used tamoxifen, 11% used raloxifene, and 13% used an AI. For tamoxifen and raloxifene users, the risk-benefit index indicated 23% of women had insufficient evidence that benefits would outweigh risks. For all agents, adherence decreased from an average proportion of days covered of 75% at 1 year to 67% at 5 years. Automated EMR searches identified breast cancer chemoprevention users with 60% positive predictive value overall and 75% for tamoxifen after post hoc modifications.

CONCLUSION

Our study contributes to an emerging picture of breast cancer chemoprevention use in real-world settings, where evidence of net benefit is not uniform and nonadherence is common. Among breast cancer chemoprevention agents, our automated selection best performed for tamoxifen use. We also identified off-label use of AIs for chemoprevention, suggesting that expansion of risk-benefit indices to include AIs is warranted.

Performance of the Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick breast cancer risk assessment models in women screened in a primary care setting with the FHS-7 questionnaire

Breast cancer (BC) risk assessment models base their estimations on different aspects of a woman's personal and familial history. The Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick models are the most commonly used, and BC risks assigned by them vary considerably especially concerning familial history. In this study, our aim was to compare the Gail and Tyrer-Cuzick models after initial screening for familial history of cancer in primary care using the FHS-7 questionnaire. We compared 846 unrelated women with at least one positive answer to any of the seven FHS-7 questions (positive group) and 892 unrelated women that answered negatively (negative group). Concordance between BC risk estimates was compared by Bland-Altman graphics. Mean BC risk estimates were higher using the Tyrer-Cuzick Model in women from the positive group, while women from the negative group had higher BC risk estimates using the Gail model. With increasing estimates, discordance also increased, mainly in the FHS-7 positive group. Our results show that in women with a familial history of cancer, the Gail model underestimates risk and the Tyrer-Cuzick seems to be more appropriate. FHS-7 can be a useful tool for the identification of women with higher breast cancer risks in the primary care setting.

A benefit-harm analysis of adding basal insulin vs. sulfonylurea to metformin to manage type II diabetes mellitus in people with multiple chronic conditions

OBJECTIVES

The benefits and harms of diabetes treatments need to be carefully weighed in people with type II diabetes mellitus (DM) and multiple chronic conditions (MCCs). Our objective was to quantitatively assess the benefits and harms of the addition of basal insulin (insulin) vs. sulfonylurea (SU) to metformin in people with DM and MCCs.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Data inputs into the benefit-harms analysis included (1) baseline risks of patient-centered outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, stroke, severe hypoglycemia, diarrhea, nausea) from cohorts and trials; (2) treatment effects for the addition of insulin vs. SU from a network meta-analysis; and (3) patient preference survey for outcome weights. Statistical analysis calculated the probability that adding insulin has greater benefits than harms, when compared with an SU, overall and by prespecified subgroups.

RESULTS

Including the six outcomes, the probability of net benefit for insulin compared with SU was similar, across subgroups by age and diabetes duration (probability range, using conditional logit weights: 0.44-0.56). Adding patient preferences for treatment burden associated with insulin injections shifted the probability to favor SU over insulin (probability range, using conditional logit weights: 0.01-0.12).

CONCLUSION

In people with DM and MCCs, we demonstrated incomplete evidence to conclude if basal insulin or SU should be added in people with DM and MCCs on metformin alone. The benefit-harm balance was sensitive to treatment preferences, that is., perceived treatment burden, indicating the importance of shared-decision making in caring for people with MCCs who are at high risk for experiencing harms associated with diabetes management.

Breast cancer risk prediction in women aged 35-50 years: impact of including sex hormone concentrations in the Gail model

Background

Models that accurately predict risk of breast cancer are needed to help younger women make decisions about when to begin screening. Premenopausal concentrations of circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), a biomarker of ovarian reserve, and testosterone have been positively associated with breast cancer risk in prospective studies. We assessed whether adding AMH and/or testosterone to the Gail model improves its prediction performance for women aged 35–50.

Methods

In a nested case-control study including ten prospective cohorts (1762 invasive cases/1890 matched controls) with pre-diagnostic serum/plasma samples, we estimated relative risks (RR) for the biomarkers and Gail risk factors using conditional logistic regression and random-effects meta-analysis. Absolute risk models were developed using these RR estimates, attributable risk fractions calculated using the distributions of the risk factors in the cases from the consortium, and population-based incidence and mortality rates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminatory accuracy of the models with and without biomarkers.

Results

The AUC for invasive breast cancer including only the Gail risk factor variables was 55.3 (95% CI 53.4, 57.1). The AUC increased moderately with the addition of AMH (AUC 57.6, 95% CI 55.7, 59.5), testosterone (AUC 56.2, 95% CI 54.4, 58.1), or both (AUC 58.1, 95% CI 56.2, 59.9). The largest AUC improvement (4.0) was among women without a family history of breast cancer.

Conclusions

AMH and testosterone moderately increase the discriminatory accuracy of the Gail model among women aged 35–50. We observed the largest AUC increase for women without a family history of breast cancer, the group that would benefit most from improved risk prediction because early screening is already recommended for women with a family history.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13058-019-1126-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Breast cancer prevention in older women: an algorithm to choose an optimal preventive agent

Background

Breast cancer is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in older women. The current study presents new, comprehensive guidelines for providing chemoprevention to older women.

Objective

The objective of this study was to develop and pilot test a chemopreventive choice algorithm to assess its feasibility for older women at high risk of breast cancer.

Design

The study observed outcomes of 23 older adult females being treated with one of the four different chemopreventive agents. A novel algorithm protocol was utilized for individualized chemopreventive selection.

Setting

The study was conducted in a high-risk outpatient clinic for older women.

Participants

Older outpatient females at high risk (N=23) were offered chemopreventive options based on individual criteria.

Intervention

Literature review for breast cancer chemopreventive agents informed our development of a logic-based algorithm to guide treatment protocol and chemopreventive choice optimization. Selective estrogen receptive modulators (SERMs) were avoided in women with endometrial cancer risk (ie, pre-hysterectomy individuals), but used in women with low thromboembolic event (TE) risk. Raloxifene was used with osteoporotic women. Aromatase inhibitors (AIs) were used in women with high TE risk. Women without TE risks are advised to take SERMs. When bone density decreased due to AI use, women were switched to raloxifene.

Measurements/results

Of 23 participants of age ranging from 59 to 80 years (mean=72.6), two women developed estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Two participants, one who declined chemoprevention and one treated with an AI, developed breast cancer. All initial chemopreventive agents were selected according to the algorithm. Although minor adverse events occurred, each was managed by discontinuation or replacement of the chemopreventive agent. Discontinuation was most commonly due to side effect concerns or cost rather than experienced side effects.

Conclusion

Outcomes of the initial utilization of the chemopreventive agent choice algorithm support the viability of the protocol, but further evaluation with a larger and more diverse sample is required.

Acceptability of Localized Cancer Risk Reduction Interventions Among Individuals at Average or High Risk for Cancer

Individuals at high risk for cancer, including those already diagnosed with premalignant lesions, can potentially benefit from chemopreventive interventions to reduce cancer risk. However, uptake and acceptability have been hindered due to the risk of systemic toxicity and other adverse effects. Locally delivered chemopreventive agents, where direct action on the primary organ may limit systemic toxicity, are emerging as an option for high-risk individuals. While a number of clinical trials support the development of chemopreventive agents, it is crucial to understand the factors and barriers that influence their acceptability and use. We conducted 36 focus groups with 198 individuals at average and high risk of breast/ovarian, gynecologic, and head/neck/oral and lung cancers to examine the perceptions and acceptability of chemopreventive agents. Participants' willingness to use chemopreventive agents was influenced by several factors, including perceived risk of cancer, skepticism around prevention, previous knowledge of chemopreventive agents, support from trusted sources of health information, participation in other cancer-related risk-reduction activities, previous experience with similar modalities, cost, regimen, side effects, and perceived effectiveness of the preventive intervention. Our findings indicate that individuals may be more receptive to locally delivered chemopreventive agents if they perceive themselves to be at high risk for cancer and are given the necessary information regarding regimen and side effects to make an informed decision. Clinical trials that collect additional patient-centered data including side effects and how these interventions fit into an individual's lifestyle are imperative to improve uptake of chemopreventive agents.

Finding the Balance Between Benefits and Harms When Using Statins for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Many guidelines use expected risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) during the next 10 years as a basis for recommendations on use of statins for primary prevention of CVD. However, how harms were considered and weighed against benefits is often unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the expected risk above which statins provide net benefit.

DESIGN

Quantitative benefit-harm balance modeling study.

DATA SOURCES

Network meta-analysis of primary prevention trials, a preference survey, and selected observational studies.

TARGET POPULATION

Persons aged 40 to 75 years with no history of CVD.

TIME HORIZON

10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Clinicians and guideline developers.

INTERVENTION

Low- or moderate-dose statin versus no statin.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The 10-year risk for CVD at which statins provide at least a 60% probability of net benefit, with baseline risk, frequencies of and preferences for statin benefits and harms, and competing risk for non-CVD death taken into account.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Younger men had net benefit at a lower 10-year risk for CVD than older men (14% for ages 40 to 44 years vs. 21% for ages 70 to 75 years). In women, the risk required for net benefit was higher (17% for ages 40 to 44 years vs. 22% for ages 70 to 75 years). Atorvastatin and rosuvastatin provided net benefit at lower 10-year risks than simvastatin and pravastatin.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Most alternative assumptions led to similar findings.

LIMITATION

Age-specific data for some harms were not available.

CONCLUSION

Statins provide net benefits at higher 10-year risks for CVD than are reflected in most current guidelines. In addition, the level of risk at which net benefit occurs varies considerably by age, sex, and statin type.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Swiss Government Excellence Scholarship Office, Béatrice Ederer-Weber Foundation, and North-South Cooperation at the University of Zurich.

BRCA Mutations and Breast Cancer Prevention

Women who inherit a deleterious BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation face substantially increased risks of developing breast cancer, which is estimated at 70%. Although annual screening with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and mammography promotes the earlier detection of the disease, the gold standard for the primary prevention of breast cancer remains bilateral mastectomy. In the current paper, I review the evidence regarding the management of healthy BRCA mutation carriers, including key risk factors and protective factors, and also discuss potential chemoprevention options. I also provide an overview of the key findings from the literature published to date, with a focus on data from studies that are well-powered, and preferably prospective in nature.