Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia

Does late water deficit induce root growth or senescence in wheat?

In crops like wheat, terminal drought is one of the principal stress factors limiting productivity in rain-fed systems. However, little is known about root development after heading, when water uptake can be critical to wheat crops. The impact of water-stress on root growth was investigated in two wheat cultivars, Scout and Mace, under well-watered and post-anthesis water stress in three experiments. Plants were grown outside in 1.5-m long pots at a density similar to local recommended farming practice. Differences in root development were observed between genotypes, especially for water stress conditions under which Scout developed and maintained a larger root system than Mace. While under well-watered conditions both genotypes had shallow roots that appeared to senesce after heading, a moderate water stress stimulated shallow-root growth in Scout but accelerated senescence in Mace. For deep roots, post-heading biomass growth was observed for both genotypes in well-watered conditions, while under moderate water stress, only Scout maintained net growth as Mace deep roots senesced. Water stress of severe intensity affected both genotypes similarly, with root senescence at all depths. Senescence was also observed above ground. Under well-watered conditions, Scout retained leaf greenness (i.e. stay-green phenotype) for slightly longer than Mace. The difference between genotypes accentuated under moderate water stress, with rapid post-anthesis leaf senescence in Mace while Scout leaf greenness was affected little if at all by the stress. As an overall result, grain biomass per plant ('yield') was similar in the two genotypes under well-watered conditions, but more affected by a moderate stress in Mace than Scout. The findings from this study will assist improvement in modelling root systems of crop models, development of relevant phenotyping methods and selection of cultivars with better adaptation to drought.

APSIM-based modeling approach to understand sorghum production environments in Mali

Sorghum production system in the semi-arid region of Africa is characterized by low yields which are generally attributed to high rainfall variability, poor soil fertility, and biotic factors. Production constraints must be well understood and quantified to design effective sorghum-system improvements. This study uses the state-of-the-art in silico methods and focuses on characterizing the sorghum production regions in Mali for drought occurrence and its effects on sorghum productivity. For this purpose, we adapted the APSIM-sorghum module to reproduce two cultivated photoperiod-sensitive sorghum types across a latitude of major sorghum production regions in Western Africa. We used the simulation outputs to characterize drought stress scenarios. We identified three main drought scenarios: (i) no-stress; (ii) early pre-flowering drought stress; and (iii) drought stress onset around flowering. The frequency of drought stress scenarios experienced by the two sorghum types across rainfall zones and soil types differed. As expected, the early pre-flowering and flowering drought stress occurred more frequently in isohyets < 600 mm, for the photoperiod-sensitive, late-flowering sorghum type. In isohyets above 600 mm, the frequency of drought stress was very low for both cultivars. We quantified the consequences of these drought scenarios on grain and biomass productivity. The yields of the highly-photoperiod-sensitive sorghum type were quite stable across the higher rainfall zones > 600 mm, but was affected by the drought stress in the lower rainfall zones < 600 mm. Comparatively, the less photoperiod-sensitive cultivar had notable yield gain in the driest regions < 600 mm. The results suggest that, at least for the tested crop types, drought stress might not be the major constraint to sorghum production in isohyets > 600 mm. The findings from this study provide the entry point for further quantitative testing of the Genotype × Environment × Management options required to optimize sorghum production in Mali.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00909-5.

Crop modeling suggests limited transpiration would increase yield of sorghum across drought-prone regions of the United States

Breeding sorghum to withstand droughts is pivotal to secure crop production in regions vulnerable to water scarcity. Limited transpiration (LT) restricts water demand at high vapor pressure deficit, saving water for use in critical periods later in the growing season. Here we evaluated the hypothesis that LT would increase sorghum grain yield in the United States. We used a process-based crop model, APSIM, which simulates interactions of genotype, environment, and management (G × E × M). In this study, the G component includes the LT trait (GT) and maturity group (GM), the EW component entails water deficit patterns, and the MP component represents different planting dates. Simulations were conducted over 33 years (1986-2018) for representative locations across the US sorghum belt (Kansas, Texas, and Colorado) for three planting dates and maturity groups. The interaction of GT x EW indicated a higher impact of LT sorghum on grain for late drought (LD), mid-season drought (MD), and early drought (ED, 8%), than on well-watered (WW) environments (4%). Thus, significant impacts of LT can be achieved in western regions of the sorghum belt. The lack of interaction of GT × GM × MP suggested that an LT sorghum would increase yield by around 8% across maturity groups and planting dates. Otherwise, the interaction GM × MP revealed that specific combinations are better suited across geographical regions. Overall, the findings suggest that breeding for LT would increase sorghum yield in the drought-prone areas of the US without tradeoffs.

Modelling plants across scales of biological organisation for guiding crop improvement

Grain yield improvement in globally important staple crops is critical in the coming decades if production is to keep pace with growing demand; so there is increasing interest in understanding and manipulating plant growth and developmental traits for better crop productivity. However, this is confounded by complex cross-scale feedback regulations and a limited ability to evaluate the consequences of manipulation on crop production. Plant/crop modelling could hold the key to deepening our understanding of dynamic trait-crop-environment interactions and predictive capabilities for supporting genetic manipulation. Using photosynthesis and crop growth as an example, this review summarises past and present experimental and modelling work, bringing about a model-guided crop improvement thrust, encompassing research into: (1) advancing cross-scale plant/crop modelling that connects across biological scales of organisation using a trait dissection-integration modelling principle; (2) improving the reliability of predicted molecular-trait-crop-environment system dynamics with experimental validation; and (3) innovative model application in synergy with cross-scale experimentation to evaluate G×M×E and predict yield outcomes of genetic intervention (or lack of it) for strategising further molecular and breeding efforts. The possible future roles of cross-scale plant/crop modelling in maximising crop improvement are discussed.

Understanding the genomic selection for crop improvement: current progress and future prospects

Although increased use of modern breeding techniques and technology has resulted in long-term genetic gain, the pace of genetic gain must be sped up to satisfy global agricultural demand. However, marker-assisted selection has proven its potential for improving qualitative traits with large effects regulated by one to few genes. Its contribution to the improvement of the quantitative traits regulated by a number of small-effect genes is modest. In this context, genomic selection (GS) has been regarded as the most promising method for genetically enhancing complicated features that are regulated by several genes, each of which has minor effects. By examining a population's phenotypes and high-density marker scores, genomic selection can forecast the breeding potential of individual lines. The fact that GS uses all marker data in the prediction model prevents skewed marker effect estimations and maximizes the amount of variation caused by small-effect QTL. It has the ability to speed up the breeding cycle and as a consequence of which superior genotypes are selected rapidly. Developing the best GS models while taking into account non-additive effects, genotype-by-environment interaction, and cost-effectiveness will enable the widespread implementation of GS in plants. These steps will also increase heritability estimation and prediction accuracy. This review focuses on the shift from conventional selection methods to GS, underlying statistical tools and methodologies, the state of GS research in agricultural plants, and prospects for its effective use in the creation of climate-resilient crops.

More than 1000 genotypes are required to derive robust relationships between yield, yield stability and physiological parameters: a computational study on wheat crop

Using in silico experiment in crop model, we identified different physiological regulations of yield and yield stability, as well as quantify the genotype and environment numbers required for analysing yield stability convincingly. Identifying target traits for breeding stable and high-yielded cultivars simultaneously is difficult due to limited knowledge of physiological mechanisms behind yield stability. Besides, there is no consensus about the adequacy of a stability index (SI) and the minimal number of environments and genotypes required for evaluating yield stability. We studied this question using the crop model APSIM-Wheat to simulate 9100 virtual genotypes grown under 9000 environments. By analysing the simulated data, we showed that the shape of phenotype distributions affected the correlation between SI and mean yield and the genotypic superiority measure (P_i) was least affected among 11 SI. P_i was used as index to demonstrate that more than 150 environments were required to estimate yield stability of a genotype convincingly and more than 1000 genotypes were necessary to evaluate the contribution of a physiological parameter to yield stability. Network analyses suggested that a physiological parameter contributed preferentially to yield or P_i. For example, soil water absorption efficiency and potential grain filling rate explained better the variations in yield than in P_i; while light extinction coefficient and radiation use efficiency were more correlated with P_i than with yield. The high number of genotypes and environments required for studying P_i highlight the necessity and potential of in silico experiments to better understand the mechanisms behind yield stability.

Extending the breeder's equation to take aim at the target population of environments

A major focus for genomic prediction has been on improving trait prediction accuracy using combinations of algorithms and the training data sets available from plant breeding multi-environment trials (METs). Any improvements in prediction accuracy are viewed as pathways to improve traits in the reference population of genotypes and product performance in the target population of environments (TPE). To realize these breeding outcomes there must be a positive MET-TPE relationship that provides consistency between the trait variation expressed within the MET data sets that are used to train the genome-to-phenome (G2P) model for applications of genomic prediction and the realized trait and performance differences in the TPE for the genotypes that are the prediction targets. The strength of this MET-TPE relationship is usually assumed to be high, however it is rarely quantified. To date investigations of genomic prediction methods have focused on improving prediction accuracy within MET training data sets, with less attention to quantifying the structure of the TPE and the MET-TPE relationship and their potential impact on training the G2P model for applications of genomic prediction to accelerate breeding outcomes for the on-farm TPE. We extend the breeder's equation and use an example to demonstrate the importance of the MET-TPE relationship as a key component for the design of genomic prediction methods to realize improved rates of genetic gain for the target yield, quality, stress tolerance and yield stability traits in the on-farm TPE.

Breeding crops for drought-affected environments and improved climate resilience

Breeding climate-resilient crops with improved levels of abiotic and biotic stress resistance as a response to climate change presents both opportunities and challenges. Applying the framework of the "breeder's equation," which is used to predict the response to selection for a breeding program cycle, we review methodologies and strategies that have been used to successfully breed crops with improved levels of drought resistance, where the target population of environments (TPEs) is a spatially and temporally heterogeneous mixture of drought-affected and favorable (water-sufficient) environments. Long-term improvement of temperate maize for the US corn belt is used as a case study and compared with progress for other crops and geographies. Integration of trait information across scales, from genomes to ecosystems, is needed to accurately predict yield outcomes for genotypes within the current and future TPEs. This will require transdisciplinary teams to explore, identify, and exploit novel opportunities to accelerate breeding program outcomes; both improved germplasm resources and improved products (cultivars, hybrids, clones, and populations) that outperform and replace the products in use by farmers, in combination with modified agronomic management strategies suited to their local environments.

Plant water uptake modelling: added value of cross-disciplinary approaches

In recent years, research interest in plant water uptake strategies has rapidly increased in many disciplines, such as hydrology, plant ecology and ecophysiology. Quantitative modelling approaches to estimate plant water uptake and spatiotemporal dynamics have significantly advanced through different disciplines across scales. Despite this progress, major limitations, for example, predicting plant water uptake under drought or drought impact at large scales, remain. These are less attributed to limitations in process understanding, but rather to a lack of implementation of cross-disciplinary insights into plant water uptake model structure. The main goal of this review is to highlight how the four dominant model approaches, that is, Feddes approach, hydrodynamic approach, optimality and statistical approaches, can be and have been used to create interdisciplinary hybrid models enabling a holistic system understanding that, among other things, embeds plant water uptake plasticity into a broader conceptual view of soil-plant feedbacks of water, nutrient and carbon cycling, or reflects observed drought responses of plant-soil feedbacks and their dynamics under, that is, drought. Specifically, we provide examples of how integration of Bayesian and hydrodynamic approaches might overcome challenges in interpreting plant water uptake related to different travel and residence times of different plant water sources or trade-offs between root system optimization to forage for water and nutrients during different seasons and phenological stages.

Improving drought tolerance in maize: Tools and techniques

Drought is an important constraint to agricultural productivity worldwide and is expected to worsen with climate change. To assist farmers, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), to adapt to climate change, continuous generation of stress-tolerant and farmer-preferred crop varieties, and their adoption by farmers, is critical to curb food insecurity. Maize is the most widely grown staple crop in SSA and plays a significant role in food security. The aim of this review is to present an overview of a broad range of tools and techniques used to improve drought tolerance in maize. We also present a summary of progress in breeding for maize drought tolerance, while incorporating research findings from disciplines such as physiology, molecular biology, and systems modeling. The review is expected to complement existing knowledge about breeding maize for climate resilience. Collaborative maize drought tolerance breeding projects in SSA emphasize the value of public-private partnerships in increasing access to genomic techniques and useful transgenes. To sustain the impact of maize drought tolerance projects in SSA, there must be complementary efforts to train the next generation of plant breeders and crop scientists.

Identification of agro-physiological traits of lentil that reduce risks of drought

Ideotype breeding is an essential approach for selection of desired combination of plant traits for testing in crop growth model for potential yield gain in specific environments and management practices. Here we parameterized plant traits for untested lentil cultivars for the APSIM-lentil model in phenology, biomass, and seed yield. We then tested these against independent data and applied the model in an extrapolated analysis (i) to assess the impact of drought on productivity across different rainfall environments; (ii) to identify impactful plant traits and (iii) to design new lentil ideotypes with a combination of desirable traits that mitigate the impact of drought, in the context of various agronomic practices across a wide range of production environments. Desirable phenological and physiological traits related to yield were identified with RUE having the greatest effect on yield followed by HI rate. Leaf size significantly affected seed yield (p< 0.05) more than phenological phases. The physiological traits were integrated into four ideotype designs applied to two baseline cultivars (PBA Hallmark XT and PBA Jumbo2) providing eight ideotypes. We identified a combination of genetic traits that promises a yield advantage of around 10% against our current cultivars PBA Hallmark XT and PBA Jumbo2. Under drought conditions, our ideotypes achieved 5 to 25% yield advantages without stubble and 20 to 40% yield advantages with stubble residues. This shows the importance of genetic screening under realistic production conditions (e.g., stubble retention in particular environments). Such screening is aided by the employment of biophysical models that incorporate both genetic and agronomic variables that focus on successful traits in combination, to reduce the impact of drought in the development of new cultivars for various environments. Stubble retention was found to be a major agronomic contributor to high yield in water-limiting environments and this contribution declined with increasing growing season rainfall. In mid- and high-rainfall environments, the key drivers of yield were time of sowing, physiological traits and soil type. Overall, the agronomic practices, namely, early sowing, residue retention and narrow row spacing deceased the impact of drought when combined with improved physiological traits of the ideotypes based on long term climate data.

Characterizing the Potato Growing Regions in India Using Meteorological Parameters

Currently, the multi-location testing of advanced hybrids in India is carried out at 25 centers under the All India Co-ordinated Research Project on Potato (AICRP-P), which is spread across the country. These centres have been chosen to represent different potato growing regions based on soil and agronomic features. However, the reliable deployment of the newly bred varieties in different regions requires a scientific delineation of potato growing zones with homogenous climates. The present study was undertaken to develop homogenous zones in the Indian sub-continent based on the environmental parameters of the potato growing season. A total of 1253 locations were identified across the country as having a plausible potato growing season of at least 70 days with suitable thermal limits. Six variables including five meteorological parameters including Physiological days (P days), Growing degree days (GDD), Mean daily temperature, Mean night temperature and Mean daily incident solar radiation, together with altitude as the sixth variable, were used for Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) and the Principal Component Analysis by Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) technique to derive identical classes. The thematic map of the classes was overlaid on potato growing districts of India using ArcGIS 9.1 software. The study clearly depicted that the clustering technique can effectively delineate the target population of environments (TPE) for potato genotypes performing well at different testing environments in India. The study also identifies target locations for future focus on breeding strategies, especially the high night temperature class having a large expanse in India. This is also vital in view of the impending climate change situation.

Genetic basis and adaptive implications of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent effects of drought on chickpea reproductive phenology

Water deficit often hastens flowering of pulses partially because droughted plants are hotter. Separating temperature-independent and temperature-dependent effects of drought is important to understand, model, and manipulate phenology. We define a new trait, drought effect on phenology (DEP), as the difference in flowering time between irrigated and rainfed crops, and use FST genome scanning to probe for genomic regions under selection for this trait in chickpea (Cicer arietinum). Owing to the negligible variation in daylength in our dataset, variation in phenology with sowing date was attributed to temperature and water; hence, genomic regions overlapping for early- and late-sown crops would associate with temperature-independent effects and non-overlapping genomic regions would associate with temperature-dependent effects. Thermal-time to flowering was shortened with increasing water stress, as quantified with carbon isotope composition. Genomic regions on chromosomes 4-8 were under selection for DEP. An overlapping region for early and late sowing on chromosome 8 revealed a temperature-independent effect with four candidate genes: BAM1, BAM2, HSL2, and ANT. The non-overlapping regions included six candidate genes: EMF1, EMF2, BRC1/TCP18, BZR1, NPGR1, and ERF1. Modelling showed that DEP reduces the likelihood of drought and heat stress at the expense of increased likelihood of cold stress. Accounting for DEP would improve genetic and phenotypic models of phenology.

Environment Characterization in Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) by Modeling Water-Deficit and Heat Patterns in the Great Plains Region, United States

Environmental characterization for defining the target population of environments (TPE) is critical to improve the efficiency of breeding programs in crops, such as sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.). The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial and temporal variation for a TPE for sorghum within the United States. APSIM-sorghum, included in the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator software platform, was used to quantify water-deficit and heat patterns for 15 sites in the sorghum belt. Historical weather data (∼35 years) was used to identify water (WSP) and heat (HSP) stress patterns to develop water-heat clusters. Four WSPs were identified with large differences in the timing of onset, intensity, and duration of the stress. In the western region of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, the most frequent WSP (∼35%) was stress during grain filling with late recovery. For northeast Kansas, WSP frequencies were more evenly distributed, suggesting large temporal variation. Three HSPs were defined, with the low HSP being most frequent (∼68%). Field data from Kansas State University sorghum hybrid yield performance trials (2006-2013 period, 6 hybrids, 10 sites, 46 site × year combinations) were classified into the previously defined WSP and HSP clusters. As the intensity of the environmental stress increased, there was a clear reduction on grain yield. Both simulated and observed yield data showed similar yield trends when the level of heat or water stressed increased. Field yield data clearly separated contrasting clusters for both water and heat patterns (with vs. without stress). Thus, the patterns were regrouped into four categories, which account for the observed genotype by environment interaction (GxE) and can be applied in a breeding program. A better definition of TPE to improve predictability of GxE could accelerate genetic gains and help bridge the gap between breeders, agronomists, and farmers.

Quantitative and population genomics suggest a broad role of stay-green loci in the drought adaptation of sorghum

Drought is a major constraint on plant productivity globally. Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] landraces have evolved in drought-prone regions, but the genetics of their adaptation is poorly understood. Here we sought to identify novel drought-tolerance loci and test hypotheses on the role of known loci including those underlying stay-green (Stg) postflowering drought tolerance. We phenotyped 590 diverse sorghum accessions from West Africa in 10 environments, under field-based managed drought stress [preflowering water stress (WS1), postflowering water stress (WS2), and well-watered (WW)] and rainfed (RF) conditions over 4 yr. Days to 50% flowering (DFLo), aboveground dry biomass (DBM), plant height (PH), and plant grain yield components (including grain weight [GrW], panicle weight [PW] and grain number [GrN] per plant, and 1000-grain weight [TGrW]) were measured, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) was conducted. Broad-sense heritability for biomass and plant grain yield was high (33-92%) across environments. There was a significant correlation between stress tolerance index (STI) for GrW per plant across WS1 and WS2. Genome-wide association studies revealed that SbZfl1 and SbCN12, orthologs of maize (Zea mays L.) flowering genes, likely underlie flowering time variation under these conditions. Genome-wide association studies further identified associations (n = 134; common between two GWAS models) for STI and drought effects on plant yield components including 16 putative pleiotropic associations. Thirty of the associations colocalized with Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4 loci and had large effects. Seven lead associations, including some within Stg1, overlapped with positive selection outliers. Our findings reveal previously undescribed natural genetic variation for drought-tolerance-related traits and suggest a broad role of Stg loci in drought adaptation of sorghum.

Plant Variety Selection Using Interaction Classes Derived From Factor Analytic Linear Mixed Models: Models With Independent Variety Effects

A major challenge in the analysis of plant breeding multi-environment datasets is the provision of meaningful and concise information for variety selection in the presence of variety by environment interaction (VEI). This is addressed in the current paper by fitting a factor analytic linear mixed model (FALMM) then using the fundamental factor analytic parameters to define groups of environments in the dataset within which there is minimal crossover VEI, but between which there may be substantial crossover VEI. These groups are consequently called interaction classes (iClasses). Given that the environments within an iClass exhibit minimal crossover VEI, it is then valid to obtain predictions of overall variety performance (across environments) for each iClass. These predictions can then be used not only to select the best varieties within each iClass but also to match varieties in terms of their patterns of VEI across iClasses. The latter is aided with the use of a new graphical tool called an iClass Interaction Plot. The ideas are introduced in this paper within the framework of FALMMs in which the genetic effects for different varieties are assumed independent. The application to FALMMs which include information on genetic relatedness is the subject of a subsequent paper.

Tackling G × E × M interactions to close on-farm yield-gaps: creating novel pathways for crop improvement by predicting contributions of genetics and management to crop productivity

KEY MESSAGE

Climate change and Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management interactions together challenge our strategies for crop improvement. Research to advance prediction methods for breeding and agronomy is opening new opportunities to tackle these challenges and overcome on-farm crop productivity yield-gaps through design of responsive crop improvement strategies. Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (G × E × M) interactions underpin many aspects of crop productivity. An important question for crop improvement is "How can breeders and agronomists effectively explore the diverse opportunities within the high dimensionality of the complex G × E × M factorial to achieve sustainable improvements in crop productivity?" Whenever G × E × M interactions make important contributions to attainment of crop productivity, we should consider how to design crop improvement strategies that can explore the potential space of G × E × M possibilities, reveal the interesting Genotype-Management (G-M) technology opportunities for the Target Population of Environments (TPE), and enable the practical exploitation of the associated improved levels of crop productivity under on-farm conditions. Climate change adds additional layers of complexity and uncertainty to this challenge, by introducing directional changes in the environmental dimension of the G × E × M factorial. These directional changes have the potential to create further conditional changes in the contributions of the genetic and management dimensions to future crop productivity. Therefore, in the presence of G × E × M interactions and climate change, the challenge for both breeders and agronomists is to co-design new G-M technologies for a non-stationary TPE. Understanding these conditional changes in crop productivity through the relevant sciences for each dimension, Genotype, Environment, and Management, creates opportunities to predict novel G-M technology combinations suitable to achieve sustainable crop productivity and global food security targets for the likely climate change scenarios. Here we consider critical foundations required for any prediction framework that aims to move us from the current unprepared state of describing G × E × M outcomes to a future responsive state equipped to predict the crop productivity consequences of G-M technology combinations for the range of environmental conditions expected for a complex, non-stationary TPE under the influences of climate change.

Scaling up high-throughput phenotyping for abiotic stress selection in the field

High-throughput phenotyping (HTP) is in its infancy for deployment in large-scale breeding programmes. With the ability to measure correlated traits associated with physiological ideotypes, in-field phenotyping methods are available for screening of abiotic stress responses. As cropping environments become more hostile and unpredictable due to the effects of climate change, the need to characterise variability across spatial and temporal scales will become increasingly important. The sensor technologies that have enabled HTP from macroscopic through to satellite sensors may also be utilised here to complement spatial characterisation using envirotyping, which can improve estimations of genotypic performance across environments by better accounting for variation at the plot, trial and inter-trial levels. Climate change is leading to increased variation at all physical and temporal scales in the cropping environment. Maintaining yield stability under circumstances with greater levels of abiotic stress while capitalising upon yield potential in good years, requires approaches to plant breeding that target the physiological limitations to crop performance in specific environments. This requires dynamic modelling of conditions within target populations of environments, GxExM predictions, clustering of environments so breeding trajectories can be defined, and the development of screens that enable selection for genetic gain to occur. High-throughput phenotyping (HTP), combined with related technologies used for envirotyping, can help to address these challenges. Non-destructive analysis of the morphological, biochemical and physiological qualities of plant canopies using HTP has great potential to complement whole-genome selection, which is becoming increasingly common in breeding programmes. A range of novel analytic techniques, such as machine learning and deep learning, combined with a widening range of sensors, allow rapid assessment of large breeding populations that are repeatable and objective. Secondary traits underlying radiation use efficiency and water use efficiency can be screened with HTP for selection at the early stages of a breeding programme. HTP and envirotyping technologies can also characterise spatial variability at trial and within-plot levels, which can be used to correct for spatial variations that confound measurements of genotypic values. This review explores HTP for abiotic stress selection through a physiological trait lens and additionally investigates the use of envirotyping and EC to characterise spatial variability at all physical scales in METs.

Integrated genomic selection for rapid improvement of crops

An increase in the rate of crop improvement is essential for achieving sustained food production and other needs of ever-increasing population. Genomic selection (GS) is a potential breeding tool that has been successfully employed in animal breeding and is being incorporated into plant breeding. GS promises accelerated breeding cycles through a rapid selection of superior genotypes. Numerous empirical and simulation studies on GS and realized impacts on improvement in the crop yields are recently being reported. For a holistic understanding of the technology, we briefly discuss the concept of genetic gain, GS methodology, its current status, advantages of GS over other breeding methods, prediction models, and the factors controlling prediction accuracy in GS. Also, integration of speed breeding and other novel technologies viz. high throughput genotyping and phenotyping technologies for enhancing the efficiency and pace of GS, followed by its prospective applications in varietal development programs is reviewed.

Can We Harness "Enviromics" to Accelerate Crop Improvement by Integrating Breeding and Agronomy?

The diverse consequences of genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions determine trait phenotypes across levels of biological organization for crops, challenging our ambition to predict trait phenotypes from genomic information alone. GxE interactions have many implications for optimizing both genetic gain through plant breeding and crop productivity through on-farm agronomic management. Advances in genomics technologies have provided many suitable predictors for the genotype dimension of GxE interactions. Emerging advances in high-throughput proximal and remote sensor technologies have stimulated the development of "enviromics" as a community of practice, which has the potential to provide suitable predictors for the environment dimension of GxE interactions. Recently, several bespoke examples have emerged demonstrating the nascent potential for enhancing the prediction of yield and other complex trait phenotypes of crop plants through including effects of GxE interactions within prediction models. These encouraging results motivate the development of new prediction methods to accelerate crop improvement. If we can automate methods to identify and harness suitable sets of coordinated genotypic and environmental predictors, this will open new opportunities to upscale and operationalize prediction of the consequences of GxE interactions. This would provide a foundation for accelerating crop improvement through integrating the contributions of both breeding and agronomy. Here we draw on our experience from improvement of maize productivity for the range of water-driven environments across the US corn-belt. We provide perspectives from the maize case study to prioritize promising opportunities to further develop and automate "enviromics" methodologies to accelerate crop improvement through integrated breeding and agronomic approaches for a wider range of crops and environmental targets.

A Multi-Environment Trial Analysis of Frost Susceptibility in Wheat and Barley Under Australian Frost-Prone Field Conditions

Low temperatures during the flowering period of cereals can lead to floret sterility, yield reduction, and economic losses in Australian crops. In order to breed for improved frost susceptibility, selection methods are urgently required to identify novel sources of frost tolerant germplasm. However, the presence of genotype by environment interactions (i.e. variety responses to a change in environment) is a major constraint to select the most appropriate varieties in any given target environment. An advanced method of analysis for multi-environment trials that includes factor analytic selection tools to summarize overall performance and stability to a specific trait across the environments could deliver useful information to guide growers and plant breeding programs in providing the most appropriate decision making-strategy. In this study, the updated selection tools approached in this multi-environment trials (MET) analysis have allowed variety comparisons with similar frost susceptibility but which have a different response to changes in the environment or vice versa. This MET analysis included a wide range of sowing dates grown at multiple locations from 2010 to 2019, respectively. These results, as far as we are aware, show for the first-time genotypic differences to frost damage through a MET analysis by phenotyping a vast number of accurate empirical measurements that reached in excess of 557,000 spikes. This has resulted in a substantial number of experimental units (10,317 and 5,563 in wheat and barley, respectively) across a wide range of sowing times grown at multiple locations from 2010 to 2019. Varieties with low frost overall performance (OP) and low frost stability (root mean square deviation -RMSD) were less frost susceptible, with performance more consistent across all environments, while varieties with low OP and high RMSD were adapted to specific environmental conditions.

Enviromic Assembly Increases Accuracy and Reduces Costs of the Genomic Prediction for Yield Plasticity in Maize

Quantitative genetics states that phenotypic variation is a consequence of the interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Predictive breeding is based on this statement, and because of this, ways of modeling genetic effects are still evolving. At the same time, the same refinement must be used for processing environmental information. Here, we present an "enviromic assembly approach," which includes using ecophysiology knowledge in shaping environmental relatedness into whole-genome predictions (GP) for plant breeding (referred to as enviromic-aided genomic prediction, E-GP). We propose that the quality of an environment is defined by the core of environmental typologies and their frequencies, which describe different zones of plant adaptation. From this, we derived markers of environmental similarity cost-effectively. Combined with the traditional additive and non-additive effects, this approach may better represent the putative phenotypic variation observed across diverse growing conditions (i.e., phenotypic plasticity). Then, we designed optimized multi-environment trials coupling genetic algorithms, enviromic assembly, and genomic kinships capable of providing in-silico realization of the genotype-environment combinations that must be phenotyped in the field. As proof of concept, we highlighted two E-GP applications: (1) managing the lack of phenotypic information in training accurate GP models across diverse environments and (2) guiding an early screening for yield plasticity exerting optimized phenotyping efforts. Our approach was tested using two tropical maize sets, two types of enviromics assembly, six experimental network sizes, and two types of optimized training set across environments. We observed that E-GP outperforms benchmark GP in all scenarios, especially when considering smaller training sets. The representativeness of genotype-environment combinations is more critical than the size of multi-environment trials (METs). The conventional genomic best-unbiased prediction (GBLUP) is inefficient in predicting the quality of a yet-to-be-seen environment, while enviromic assembly enabled it by increasing the accuracy of yield plasticity predictions. Furthermore, we discussed theoretical backgrounds underlying how intrinsic envirotype-phenotype covariances within the phenotypic records can impact the accuracy of GP. The E-GP is an efficient approach to better use environmental databases to deliver climate-smart solutions, reduce field costs, and anticipate future scenarios.

Breeder friendly phenotyping

The word phenotyping can nowadays invoke visions of a drone or phenocart moving swiftly across research plots collecting high-resolution data sets on a wide array of traits. This has been made possible by recent advances in sensor technology and data processing. Nonetheless, more comprehensive often destructive phenotyping still has much to offer in breeding as well as research. This review considers the 'breeder friendliness' of phenotyping within three main domains: (i) the 'minimum data set', where being 'handy' or accessible and easy to collect and use is paramount, visual assessment often being preferred; (ii) the high throughput phenotyping (HTP), relatively new for most breeders, and requiring significantly greater investment with technical hurdles for implementation and a steeper learning curve than the minimum data set; (iii) detailed characterization or 'precision' phenotyping, typically customized for a set of traits associated with a target environment and requiring significant time and resources. While having been the subject of debate in the past, extra investment for phenotyping is becoming more accepted to capitalize on recent developments in crop genomics and prediction models, that can be built from the high-throughput and detailed precision phenotypes. This review considers different contexts for phenotyping, including breeding, exploration of genetic resources, parent building and translational research to deliver other new breeding resources, and how the different categories of phenotyping listed above apply to each. Some of the same tools and rules of thumb apply equally well to phenotyping for genetic analysis of complex traits and gene discovery.

Strengths and Weaknesses of National Variety Trial Data for Multi-Environment Analysis: A Case Study on Grain Yield and Protein Content

Multi-environment trial studies provide an opportunity for the detailed analysis of complex traits. However, conducting trials across a large number of regions can be costly and labor intensive. The Australian National Variety Trials (NVT) provide grain yield and protein content (GPC) data of over 200 wheat varieties in many and varied environments across the Australian wheat-belt and is representative of similar trials conducted in other countries. Through our analysis of the NVT dataset, we highlight the advantages and limitations in using these data to explore the relationship between grain yield and GPC in the low yielding environments of Australia. Eight environment types (ETs), categorized in a previous study based on the time and intensity of drought stress, were used to analyze the impact of drought on the relationship between grain yield and protein content. The study illustrates the value of comprehensive multi-environment analysis to explore the complex relationship between yield and GPC, and to identify the most appropriate environments to select for a favorable relationship. However, the NVT trial design does not follow the rigor associated with a normal genotype × environment study and this limits the accuracy of the interpretation.

The Impacts of Flowering Time and Tillering on Grain Yield of Sorghum Hybrids across Diverse Environments

Sorghum in Australia is grown in water-limited environments of varying extent, generating substantial genotype × environment interactions (GEIs) for grain yield. Much of the yield variation and GEI results from variations in flowering time and tillering through their effects on canopy development. The confounding effects of flowering and tillering complicate the interpretation of breeding trials. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of both flowering time (DTF) and tillering capacity (FTN) on the yield of 1741 unique test hybrids derived from three common female testers in 21 yield testing trials (48 tester/trial combinations) across the major sorghum production regions in Australia in three seasons. Contributions of DTF and FTN to genetic variation in grain yield were significant in 14 and 12 tester/trial combinations, respectively. The proportion of genetic variance in grain yield explained by DTF and FTN ranged from 0.2% to 61.0% and from 1.4% to 56.9%, respectively, depending on trials and genetic background of female testers. The relationship of DTF or FTN with grain yield of hybrids was frequently positive but varied across the genetic background of testers. Accounting for the effects of DTF and FTN using linear models did not substantially increase the between-trial genetic correlations for grain yield. The results suggested that other factors affecting canopy development dynamics and grain yield might contribute GEI and/or the linear approach to account for DTF and FTN on grain yield did not capture the complex non-linear interactions.

Can Metabolite- and Transcript-Based Selection for Drought Tolerance in Solanum tuberosum Replace Selection on Yield in Arid Environments?

Climate models predict an increased likelihood of drought, demanding efficient selection for drought tolerance to maintain yield stability. Classic tolerance breeding relies on selection for yield in arid environments, which depends on yield trials and takes decades. Breeding could be accelerated by marker-assisted selection (MAS). As an alternative to genomic markers, transcript and metabolite markers have been suggested for important crops but also for orphan corps. For potato, we suggested a random-forest-based model that predicts tolerance from leaf metabolite and transcript levels with a precision of more than 90% independent of the agro-environment. To find out how the model based selection compares to yield-based selection in arid environments, we applied this approach to a population of 200 tetraploid Solanum tuberosum ssp. tuberosum lines segregating for drought tolerance. Twenty-four lines were selected into a phenotypic subpopulation (PP_t) for superior tolerance based on relative tuber starch yield data from three drought stress trials. Two subpopulations with superior (MP_t) and inferior (MP_s) tolerance were selected based on drought tolerance predictions based on leaf metabolite and transcript levels from two sites. The 60 selected lines were phenotyped for yield and drought tolerance in 10 multi-environment drought stress trials representing typical Central European drought scenarios. Neither selection affected development or yield potential. Lines with superior drought tolerance and high yields under stress were over-represented in both populations selected for superior tolerance, with a higher number in PP_t compared to MP_t. However, selection based on leaf metabolites may still be an alternative to yield-based selection in arid environments as it works on leaves sampled in breeder's fields independent of drought trials. As the selection against low tolerance was ineffective, the method is best used in combination with tools that select against sensitive genotypes. Thus, metabolic and transcript marker-based selection for drought tolerance is a viable alternative to the selection on yield in arid environments.

From QTLs to Adaptation Landscapes: Using Genotype-To-Phenotype Models to Characterize G×E Over Time

Genotype by environment interaction (G×E) for the target trait, e.g. yield, is an emerging property of agricultural systems and results from the interplay between a hierarchy of secondary traits involving the capture and allocation of environmental resources during the growing season. This hierarchy of secondary traits ranges from basic traits that correspond to response mechanisms/sensitivities, to intermediate traits that integrate a larger number of processes over time and therefore show a larger amount of G×E. Traits underlying yield differ in their contribution to adaptation across environmental conditions and have different levels of G×E. Here, we provide a framework to study the performance of genotype to phenotype (G2P) modeling approaches. We generate and analyze response surfaces, or adaptation landscapes, for yield and yield related traits, emphasizing the organization of the traits in a hierarchy and their development and interactions over time. We use the crop growth model APSIM-wheat with genotype-dependent parameters as a tool to simulate non-linear trait responses over time with complex trait dependencies and apply it to wheat crops in Australia. For biological realism, APSIM parameters were given a genetic basis of 300 QTLs sampled from a gamma distribution whose shape and rate parameters were estimated from real wheat data. In the simulations, the hierarchical organization of the traits and their interactions over time cause G×E for yield even when underlying traits do not show G×E. Insight into how G×E arises during growth and development helps to improve the accuracy of phenotype predictions within and across environments and to optimize trial networks. We produced a tangible simulated adaptation landscape for yield that we first investigated for its biological credibility by statistical models for G×E that incorporate genotypic and environmental covariables. Subsequently, the simulated trait data were used to evaluate statistical genotype-to-phenotype models for multiple traits and environments and to characterize relationships between traits over time and across environments, as a way to identify traits that could be useful to select for specific adaptation. Designed appropriately, these types of simulated landscapes might also serve as a basis to train other, more deep learning methodologies in order to transfer such network models to real-world situations.

Using crop growth model stress covariates and AMMI decomposition to better predict genotype-by-environment interactions

We propose new methods to predict genotype × environment interaction by selecting relevant environmental covariates and using an AMMI decomposition of the interaction. Farmers are asked to produce more efficiently and to reduce their inputs in the context of climate change. They have to face more and more limiting factors that can combine in numerous stress scenarios. One solution to this challenge is to develop varieties adapted to specific environmental stress scenarios. For this, plant breeders can use genomic predictions coupled with environmental characterization to identify promising combinations of genes in relation to stress covariates. One way to do it is to take into account the genetic similarity between varieties and the similarity between environments within a mixed model framework. Molecular markers and environmental covariates (EC) can be used to estimate relevant covariance matrices. In the present study, based on a multi-environment trial of 220 European elite winter bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties phenotyped in 42 environments, we compared reference regression models potentially including ECs, and proposed alternative models to increase prediction accuracy. We showed that selecting a subset of ECs, and estimating covariance matrices using an AMMI decomposition to benefit from the information brought by the phenotypic records of the training set are promising approaches to better predict genotype-by-environment interactions (G ×  E). We found that using a different kinship for the main genetic effect and the G ×  E effect increased prediction accuracy. Our study also demonstrates that integrative stress indexes simulated by crop growth models are more efficient to capture G ×  E than climatic covariates.

Combining Crop Growth Modeling and Statistical Genetic Modeling to Evaluate Phenotyping Strategies

Genomic prediction of complex traits, say yield, benefits from including information on correlated component traits. Statistical criteria to decide which yield components to consider in the prediction model include the heritability of the component traits and their genetic correlation with yield. Not all component traits are easy to measure. Therefore, it may be attractive to include proxies to yield components, where these proxies are measured in (high-throughput) phenotyping platforms during the growing season. Using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-wheat cropping systems model, we simulated phenotypes for a wheat diversity panel segregating for a set of physiological parameters regulating phenology, biomass partitioning, and the ability to capture environmental resources. The distribution of the additive quantitative trait locus effects regulating the APSIM physiological parameters approximated the same distribution of quantitative trait locus effects on real phenotypic data for yield and heading date. We use the crop growth model APSIM-wheat to simulate phenotypes in three Australian environments with contrasting water deficit patterns. The APSIM output contained the dynamics of biomass and canopy cover, plus yield at the end of the growing season. Each water deficit pattern triggered different adaptive mechanisms and the impact of component traits differed between drought scenarios. We evaluated multiple phenotyping schedules by adding plot and measurement error to the dynamics of biomass and canopy cover. We used these trait dynamics to fit parametric models and P-splines to extract parameters with a larger heritability than the phenotypes at individual time points. We used those parameters in multi-trait prediction models for final yield. The combined use of crop growth models and multi-trait genomic prediction models provides a procedure to assess the efficiency of phenotyping strategies and compare methods to model trait dynamics. It also allows us to quantify the impact of yield components on yield prediction accuracy even in different environment types. In scenarios with mild or no water stress, yield prediction accuracy benefitted from including biomass and green canopy cover parameters. The advantage of the multi-trait model was smaller for the early-drought scenario, due to the reduced correlation between the secondary and the target trait. Therefore, multi-trait genomic prediction models for yield require scenario-specific correlated traits.

High temporal resolution of leaf area data improves empirical estimation of grain yield

Empirical yield estimation from satellite data has long lacked suitable combinations of spatial and temporal resolutions. Consequently, the selection of metrics, i.e., temporal descriptors that predict grain yield, has likely been driven by practicality and data availability rather than by systematic targetting of critically sensitive periods as suggested by knowledge of crop physiology. The current trend towards hyper-temporal data raises two questions: How does temporality affect the accuracy of empirical models? Which metrics achieve optimal performance? We followed an in silico approach based on crop modelling which can generate any observation frequency, explore a range of growing conditions and reduce the cost of measuring yields in situ. We simulated wheat crops across Australia and regressed six types of metrics derived from the resulting time series of Leaf Area Index (LAI) against wheat yields. Empirical models using advanced LAI metrics achieved national relevance and, contrary to simple metrics, did not benefit from the addition of weather information. This suggests that they already integrate most climatic effects on yield. Simple metrics remained the best choice when LAI data are sparse. As we progress into a data-rich era, our results support a shift towards metrics that truly harness the temporal dimension of LAI data.

Using environmental clustering to identify specific drought tolerance QTLs in bread wheat (T. aestivum L.)

Environmental clustering helps to identify QTLs associated with grain yield in different water stress scenarios. These QTLs could be useful for breeders to improve grain yields and increase genetic resilience in marginal environments. Drought is one of the main abiotic stresses limiting winter bread wheat growth and productivity around the world. The acquisition of new high-yielding and stress-tolerant varieties is therefore necessary and requires improved understanding of the physiological and genetic bases of drought resistance. A panel of 210 elite European varieties was evaluated in 35 field trials. Grain yield and its components were scored in each trial. A crop model was then run with detailed climatic data and soil water status to assess the dynamics of water stress in each environment. Varieties were registered from 1992 to 2011, allowing us to test timewise genetic progress. Finally, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was carried out using genotyping data from a 280 K SNP chip. The crop model simulation allowed us to group the environments into four water stress scenarios: an optimal condition with no water stress, a post-anthesis water stress, a moderate-anthesis water stress and a high pre-anthesis water stress. Compared to the optimal water condition, grain yield losses in the stressed conditions were 3.3%, 12.4% and 31.2%, respectively. This environmental clustering improved understanding of the effect of drought on grain yields and explained 20% of the G × E interaction. The greatest genetic progress was obtained in the optimal condition, mostly represented in France. The GWAS identified several QTLs, some of which were specific of the different water stress patterns. Our results make breeding for improved drought resistance to specific environmental scenarios easier and will facilitate genetic progress in future environments, i.e., water stress environments.

What is cost-efficient phenotyping? Optimizing costs for different scenarios

Progress in remote sensing and robotic technologies decreases the hardware costs of phenotyping. Here, we first review cost-effective imaging devices and environmental sensors, and present a trade-off between investment and manpower costs. We then discuss the structure of costs in various real-world scenarios. Hand-held low-cost sensors are suitable for quick and infrequent plant diagnostic measurements. In experiments for genetic or agronomic analyses, (i) major costs arise from plant handling and manpower; (ii) the total costs per plant/microplot are similar in robotized platform or field experiments with drones, hand-held or robotized ground vehicles; (iii) the cost of vehicles carrying sensors represents only 5-26% of the total costs. These conclusions depend on the context, in particular for labor cost, the quantitative demand of phenotyping and the number of days available for phenotypic measurements due to climatic constraints. Data analysis represents 10-20% of total cost if pipelines have already been developed. A trade-off exists between the initial high cost of pipeline development and labor cost of manual operations. Overall, depending on the context and objsectives, "cost-effective" phenotyping may involve either low investment ("affordable phenotyping"), or initial high investments in sensors, vehicles and pipelines that result in higher quality and lower operational costs.

Modelling strategies for assessing and increasing the effectiveness of new phenotyping techniques in plant breeding

New types of phenotyping tools generate large amounts of data on many aspects of plant physiology and morphology with high spatial and temporal resolution. These new phenotyping data are potentially useful to improve understanding and prediction of complex traits, like yield, that are characterized by strong environmental context dependencies, i.e., genotype by environment interactions. For an evaluation of the utility of new phenotyping information, we will look at how this information can be incorporated in different classes of genotype-to-phenotype (G2P) models. G2P models predict phenotypic traits as functions of genotypic and environmental inputs. In the last decade, access to high-density single nucleotide polymorphism markers (SNPs) and sequence information has boosted the development of a class of G2P models called genomic prediction models that predict phenotypes from genome wide marker profiles. The challenge now is to build G2P models that incorporate simultaneously extensive genomic information alongside with new phenotypic information. Beyond the modification of existing G2P models, new G2P paradigms are required. We present candidate G2P models for the integration of genomic and new phenotyping information and illustrate their use in examples. Special attention will be given to the modelling of genotype by environment interactions. The G2P models provide a framework for model based phenotyping and the evaluation of the utility of phenotyping information in the context of breeding programs.

Risk assessment of frost damage to sugar beet simulated under cold and semi-arid environments

In the semi-arid climatic conditions, water shortage is a key factor to generate crop production. Planting in autumn and winter and using precipitation can help cope with the problem. But in the semi-arid areas with cold winter, frost is another limited factor affecting crop production. For this purpose, in the present study, a simple and universal crop growth simulator (SUCROS) model was used to estimate the potential yield of sugar beets and frost damage from 1993 to 2009 for four autumn sowing dates (2 October, 17 October, 1 November, and 16 November) and two spring dates (6 March and 6 May) in eight locations (Birjand, Bojnord, Ghaen, Mashhad, Torbat-e Heydarieh, Neyshabor, Torbat-e Jam, and Ghochan) of the Khorasan province in northeastern Iran as a semi-arid and cold area. There was a large variability between locations and years in terms of frost damage. The crop failure from frost for the autumn sowing dates ranged from 62.5 to 100% at Neyshabor and Ghochan, respectively. Although autumn sowing dates performed better than spring sowing dates in terms of fresh storage organ yield (~ 109.9 t ha^-1 vs. ~ 78.4 t ha^-1), the risk of frost stress under autumn sowing dates was high at all studied locations. To maximize potential yield and minimize frost risk, sugar beet farmers under semi-arid and frost-prone conditions in the world such as Khorasan province should choose optimum sowing dates outside the high frost risk period to avoid crop damage. The last frost day under these areas normally happened between the 15th and 28th of February, after which no frost events occurred. Accordingly, it is recommended to farmers to sow sugar beet after the period during which no frost risk for sugar beet occurred.

Accelerating crop genetic gains with genomic selection

Genomic prediction based on additive genetic effects can accelerate genetic gain. There are opportunities for further improvement by including non-additive effects that access untapped sources of genetic diversity. Several studies have reported a worrying gap between the projected global future demand for plant-based products and the current annual rates of production increase, indicating that enhancing the rate of genetic gain might be critical for future food security. Therefore, new breeding technologies and strategies are required to significantly boost genetic improvement of future crop cultivars. Genomic selection (GS) has delivered considerable genetic gain in animal breeding and is becoming an essential component of many modern plant breeding programmes as well. In this paper, we review the lessons learned from implementing GS in livestock and the impact of GS on crop breeding, and discuss important features for the success of GS under different breeding scenarios. We highlight major challenges associated with GS including rapid genotyping, phenotyping, genotype-by-environment interaction and non-additivity and give examples for opportunities to overcome these issues. Finally, the potential of combining GS with other modern technologies in order to maximise the rate of crop genetic improvement is discussed, including the potential of increasing prediction accuracy by integration of crop growth models in GS frameworks.

CropSight: a scalable and open-source information management system for distributed plant phenotyping and IoT-based crop management

BACKGROUND

High-quality plant phenotyping and climate data lay the foundation for phenotypic analysis and genotype-environment interaction, providing important evidence not only for plant scientists to understand the dynamics between crop performance, genotypes, and environmental factors but also for agronomists and farmers to closely monitor crops in fluctuating agricultural conditions. With the rise of Internet of Things technologies (IoT) in recent years, many IoT-based remote sensing devices have been applied to plant phenotyping and crop monitoring, which are generating terabytes of biological datasets every day. However, it is still technically challenging to calibrate, annotate, and aggregate the big data effectively, especially when they were produced in multiple locations and at different scales.

FINDINGS

CropSight is a PHP Hypertext Pre-processor and structured query language-based server platform that provides automated data collation, storage, and information management through distributed IoT sensors and phenotyping workstations. It provides a two-component solution to monitor biological experiments through networked sensing devices, with interfaces specifically designed for distributed plant phenotyping and centralized data management. Data transfer and annotation are accomplished automatically through an hypertext transfer protocol-accessible RESTful API installed on both device side and server side of the CropSight system, which synchronize daily representative crop growth images for visual-based crop assessment and hourly microclimate readings for GxE studies. CropSight also supports the comparison of historical and ongoing crop performance while different experiments are being conducted.

CONCLUSIONS

As a scalable and open-source information management system, CropSight can be used to maintain and collate important crop performance and microclimate datasets captured by IoT sensors and distributed phenotyping installations. It provides near real-time environmental and crop growth monitoring in addition to historical and current experiment comparison through an integrated cloud-ready server system. Accessible both locally in the field through smart devices and remotely in an office using a personal computer, CropSight has been applied to field experiments of bread wheat prebreeding since 2016 and speed breeding since 2017. We believe that the CropSight system could have a significant impact on scalable plant phenotyping and IoT-style crop management to enable smart agricultural practices in the near future.

Can the development of drought tolerant ideotype sustain Australian chickpea yield?

Terminal drought is a major problem in many areas where chickpea is grown on stored soil moisture. This is exacerbated by the lack of a targeted breeding approach focusing on key traits contributing to yield formation under water-limited conditions. There is no study to develop a chickpea ideotype and test it against commercial varieties under various management systems across the Australian grain belt. This study proposed a chickpea ideotype that can be grown in water deficit areas and compared its performance with commercial chickpea genotypes across the Australian grain belt. Important traits for ideotype construction and breeding were identified and tested against selected commercial varieties in silico in the Australian grain belt using the APSIM crop model. The key phenological, morphological and physiological traits were determined in the field at the University of Sydney's IA Watson Grains Research Centre near Narrabri for ideotype targeting. Five commercial chickpea genotypes (Sonali, PBA Hattrick, Kyabra, Tyson and Amethyst) were selected for evaluation against the chickpea ideotype. The constructed chickpea ideotype showed 76% resemblance to Sonali which performed well under water limited conditions. Simulated yield ranged from 760 to 3902 kg/ha across the Australian grain belt, with consistently higher yield in the ideotype compared with the commercial cultivars. The growing environments were grouped into three major clusters using the soil water deficit method with varying water stress levels. It is evident that grain filling is the most critical stage where soil moisture deficit caused chickpea yield losses up to 16.5% in the present study. By incorporating key target traits and targeting the right environment, chickpea yields can be sustained in the Australian grain belt or in an area having similar agro-ecological characteristics.

Computational aspects underlying genome to phenome analysis in plants

Recent advances in genomics technologies have greatly accelerated the progress in both fundamental plant science and applied breeding research. Concurrently, high-throughput plant phenotyping is becoming widely adopted in the plant community, promising to alleviate the phenotypic bottleneck. While these technological breakthroughs are significantly accelerating quantitative trait locus (QTL) and causal gene identification, challenges to enable even more sophisticated analyses remain. In particular, care needs to be taken to standardize, describe and conduct experiments robustly while relying on plant physiology expertise. In this article, we review the state of the art regarding genome assembly and the future potential of pangenomics in plant research. We also describe the necessity of standardizing and describing phenotypic studies using the Minimum Information About a Plant Phenotyping Experiment (MIAPPE) standard to enable the reuse and integration of phenotypic data. In addition, we show how deep phenotypic data might yield novel trait-trait correlations and review how to link phenotypic data to genomic data. Finally, we provide perspectives on the golden future of machine learning and their potential in linking phenotypes to genomic features.

Varietal improvement options for higher rice productivity in salt affected areas using crop modelling

The rice model ORYZA v3 has been recently improved to account for salt stress effect on rice crop growth and yield. This paper details subsequent studies using the improved model to explore opportunities for improving salinity tolerance in rice. The objective was to identify combinations of plant traits influencing rice responses to salinity and to quantify yield gains by improving these traits. The ORYZA v3 model was calibrated and validated with field experimental data collected between 2012 and 2014 in Satkhira, Bangladesh and Infanta, Quezon, Philippines, then used for simulations scenario considering virtual varieties possessing different combinations of crop model parameter values related to crop salinity response and the soil salinity dynamic observed at Satkhira site. Simulation results showed that (i) short duration varieties could escape end of season increase in salinity, while long duration varieties could benefit from an irrigated desalinization period occurring during the later stages of crop growth in the Satkhira situation; (ii) combining short duration growth with salt tolerance (bTR and bPN) above 12 dS m-1 and a resilience trait (aSalt) of 0.11 in a variety, allows maintenance of 65-70% of rice yield under increasing salinity levels of up to 16 dS m-1; and (iii) increasing the value of the tolerance parameter b by 1% results in 0.3-0.4% increase in yield. These results are relevant for defining directions to increase rice productivity in saline environments, based on improvements in phenology and quantifiable salt tolerance traits.

Systematic Evaluation of Field Crop Performance Using Modern Phenotyping Tools and Techniques

The genetic improvement of field crops through plant breeding and genetic modification is highly dependent on understanding, measuring, selecting, and manipulating phenotypes. Most phenotypes result from the complex interaction of a crop's genetics with the environment and management practices in which that crop is grown. Linking gene to phenotype in field environments to create superior crop varieties can therefore be challenging, particularly for genetically complex traits that are difficult to measure. This chapter is designed to help readers overcome these difficulties by describing tools and techniques used in successful crop improvement programs. It provides methodologies that can be broadly applied across numerous situations irrespective of field crop, environment, modest financial resources, or other factors. The chapter's focus is primarily on small- and large-scale, replicated, research plot-based screening trials since these trials are crucial, ubiquitous, and costly for both public- and private-sector crop improvement programs. To ease the understanding of the protocols discussed, this chapter's materials and methods section is composed of ten subsections, with each subsection covering a critical portion of the field crop phenotyping process: regulatory, environmental, and safety considerations; trait identification and prioritization; environment characterization; field site selection; experimental design; field design, preparation, and management; crop and soil measurements; environmental monitoring; in-field data recording; and data management and analysis.

The Value of Tactical Adaptation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation for East Australian Wheat

El Niño–Southern Oscillation strongly influences rainfall and temperature patterns in Eastern Australia, with major impacts on frost, heat, and drought stresses, and potential consequences for wheat production. Wheat phenology is a key factor to adapt to the risk of frost, heat, and drought stresses in the Australian wheatbelt. This study explores broad and specific options to adapt wheat cropping systems to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and more specifically, to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phases ahead of the season (i.e., April forecast) in Eastern Australia, when wheat producers make their most crucial management decisions. Crop model simulations were performed for commercially-grown wheat varieties, as well as for virtual genotypes representing possible combinations of phenology alleles that are currently present in the Australian wheat germplasm pool. Different adaptation strategies were tested at the site level, across Eastern Australia, for a wide range of sowing dates and nitrogen applications over long-term historical weather records (1900–2016). The results highlight that a fixed adaptation system, with genotype maturities, sowing time, and nitrogen application adapted to each location would greatly increase wheat productivity compared to sowing a mid-maturity genotype, mid-season, using current practices for nitrogen applications. Tactical adaptation of both genotype and management to the different SOI phases and to different levels of initial Plant Available Water (‘PAW & SOI adaptation’) resulted in further yield improvement. Site long-term increases in yield and gross margin were up to 1.15 t·ha−1 and AU$ 223.0 ha−1 for fixed adaptation (0.78 t·ha−1 and AU$ 153 ha−1 on average across the whole region), and up to an extra 0.26 t·ha−1 and AU$ 63.9 ha−1 for tactical adaptation. For the whole eastern region, these results correspond to an annual AU$ 440 M increase for the fixed adaptation, and an extra AU$ 188 M for the PAW & SOI tactical adaptation. The benefits of PAW & SOI tactical adaptation could be useful for growers to adjust farm management practices according to pre-sowing seasonal conditions and the seasonal climate forecast.

Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as drought, frost risk and heat stress cause significant economic losses in Australia. The risk posed by ECEs in the wheat production systems of Australia could be better managed through the identification of safe flowering (SFW) and optimal time of sowing (TOS) windows. To address this issue, three locations (Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin), three cultivars (Suntop and Gregory for Narrabri, Mace for both Roseworthy and Merredin) and 20 TOS at 1-week intervals between 1 April and 12 August for the period from 1957 to 2007 were evaluated using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model. Simulation results show that (1) the average frequency of frost events decreased with TOS from 8 to 0 days (d) across the four cases (the combination of locations and cultivars), (2) the average frequency of heat stress events increased with TOS across all cases from 0 to 10 d, (3) soil moisture stress (SMS) increased with earlier TOS before reaching a plateau and then slightly decreasing for Suntop and Gregory at Narrabri and Mace at Roseworthy while SMS increased with TOS for Mace at Merredin from 0.1 to 0.8, (4) Mace at Merredin had the earliest and widest SFW (216-260) while Mace at Roseworthy had latest SFW (257-280), (5) frost risk and heat stress determine SFW at wetter sites (i.e. Narrabri and Roseworthy) while frost risk and SMS determine SFW at drier site (i.e. Merredin) and (6) the optimal TOS (window) to maximise wheat yield are 6-20 May, 13-27 May and 15 April at Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin, respectively. These findings provide important and specific information for wheat growers about the management of ECE risk on farm. Furthermore, the coupling of the APSIM crop models with state-of-the-art seasonal and intra-seasonal climate forecast information provides an important tool for improved management of the risk of ECEs in economically important cropping industries in the foreseeable future.

Integrating modelling and phenotyping approaches to identify and screen complex traits: transpiration efficiency in cereals

Following advances in genetics, genomics, and phenotyping, trait selection in breeding is limited by our ability to understand interactions within the plant and with the environment, and to identify traits of most relevance to the target population of environments. We propose an integrated approach that combines insights from crop modelling, physiology, genetics, and breeding to characterize traits valuable for yield gain in the target population of environments, develop relevant high-throughput phenotyping platforms, and identify genetic controls and their value in production environments. This paper uses transpiration efficiency (biomass produced per unit of water used) as an example of a complex trait of interest to illustrate how the approach can guide modelling, phenotyping, and selection in a breeding programme. We believe that this approach, by integrating insights from diverse disciplines, can increase the resource use efficiency of breeding programmes for improving yield gains in target populations of environments.

Accounting for Genotype-by-Environment Interactions and Residual Genetic Variation in Genomic Selection for Water-Soluble Carbohydrate Concentration in Wheat

Abiotic stress tolerance traits are often complex and recalcitrant targets for conventional breeding improvement in many crop species. This study evaluated the potential of genomic selection to predict water-soluble carbohydrate concentration (WSCC), an important drought tolerance trait, in wheat under field conditions. A panel of 358 varieties and breeding lines constrained for maturity was evaluated under rainfed and irrigated treatments across two locations and two years. Whole-genome marker profiles and factor analytic mixed models were used to generate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for specific environments and environment groups. Additive genetic variance was smaller than residual genetic variance for WSCC, such that genotypic values were dominated by residual genetic effects rather than additive breeding values. As a result, GEBVs were not accurate predictors of genotypic values of the extant lines, but GEBVs should be reliable selection criteria to choose parents for intermating to produce new populations. The accuracy of GEBVs for untested lines was sufficient to increase predicted genetic gain from genomic selection per unit time compared to phenotypic selection if the breeding cycle is reduced by half by the use of GEBVs in off-season generations. Further, genomic prediction accuracy depended on having phenotypic data from environments with strong correlations with target production environments to build prediction models. By combining high-density marker genotypes, stress-managed field evaluations, and mixed models that model simultaneously covariances among genotypes and covariances of complex trait performance between pairs of environments, we were able to train models with good accuracy to facilitate genetic gain from genomic selection.

Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil

Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on-farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesize that climatic and atmospheric changes for the upland rice growing period in central Brazil are likely to alter environment groupings and drought stress patterns by 2050, leading to changing breeding targets during the 21st century. As a result of changes in drought stress frequency and intensity, we found reductions in productivity in the range of 200-600 kg/ha (up to 20%) and reductions in yield stability throughout virtually the entire upland rice growing area (except for the southeast). In the face of these changes, our crop simulation analysis suggests that the current strategy of the breeding program, which aims at achieving wide adaptation, should be adjusted. Based on the results for current and future climates, a weighted selection strategy for the three environmental groups that characterize the region is suggested. For the highly favorable environment (HFE, 36%-41% growing area, depending on RCP), selection should be done under both stress-free and terminal stress conditions; for the favorable environment (FE, 27%-40%), selection should aim at testing under reproductive and terminal stress, and for the least favorable environment (LFE, 23%-27%), selection should be conducted for response to reproductive stress only and for the joint occurrence of reproductive and terminal stress. Even though there are differences in timing, it is noteworthy that stress levels are similar across environments, with 40%-60% of crop water demand unsatisfied. Efficient crop improvement targeted toward adaptive traits for drought tolerance will enhance upland rice crop system resilience under climate change.

Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2 ]) are expected to increase C3 crop yield through the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) by stimulating photosynthesis and by reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration. The latter effect is widely believed to lead to greater benefits in dry rather than wet conditions, although some recent experimental evidence challenges this view. Here we used a process-based crop model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), to quantify the contemporary and future CFE on soybean in one of its primary production area of the US Midwest. APSIM accurately reproduced experimental data from the Soybean Free-Air CO2 Enrichment site showing that the CFE declined with increasing drought stress. This resulted from greater radiation use efficiency (RUE) and above-ground biomass production at elevated [CO2 ] that outpaced gains in transpiration efficiency (TE). Using an ensemble of eight climate model projections, we found that drought frequency in the US Midwest is projected to increase from once every 5 years currently to once every other year by 2050. In addition to directly driving yield loss, greater drought also significantly limited the benefit from rising [CO2 ]. This study provides a link between localized experiments and regional-scale modeling to highlight that increased drought frequency and severity pose a formidable challenge to maintaining soybean yield progress that is not offset by rising [CO2 ] as previously anticipated. Evaluating the relative sensitivity of RUE and TE to elevated [CO2 ] will be an important target for future modeling and experimental studies of climate change impacts and adaptation in C3 crops.

Projected impact of future climate on water-stress patterns across the Australian wheatbelt

Drought frequently limits Australian wheat production, and the expected future increase in temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge productivity. A modelling approach captured plant×environment×management interactions to simulate water-stress patterns experienced by wheat crops at representative locations across the Australian wheatbelt for 33 climate model projections, considering the 'business as usual' emission scenario RCP8.5. The results indicate that projections of future water-stress patterns are region specific. Significant variations in projected impacts were found across climate models, providing local ranges of uncertainty to consider in planning efforts. Most climate models projected an increase in the frequency of severe water-stress conditions in the Western area, the largest producing region, and fewer severe water stresses in other regions. Where found, reductions in water-stress conditions were largely due to shorter crop cycles (a result of warmer temperatures), increased water use efficiency (resulting from increased CO2 levels), and, in some cases, increased local rainfall. Overall, simulations indicate that all areas of the Australian wheatbelt will continue to experience severe water-stress conditions (43.9, 42.6, and 40.2% for 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared with 42.8% for 1990). Given projected frequencies of severe water stress and warmer conditions, efforts towards maintaining or improving yields are essential.

Selection for water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation and investigation of genetic × environment interactions in an elite wheat breeding population

Water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation can be selected in wheat breeding programs with consideration of genetic × environmental interactions and relationships with other important characteristics such as relative maturity and nitrogen concentration, although the correlation between WSC traits and grain yield is low and inconsistent. The potential to increase the genetic capacity for water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) accumulation is an opportunity to improve the drought tolerance capability of rainfed wheat varieties, particularly in environments where terminal drought is a significant constraint to wheat production. A population of elite breeding germplasm was characterized to investigate the potential for selection of improved WSC concentration and total amount in water deficit and well-watered environments. Accumulation of WSC involves complex interactions with other traits and the environment. For both WSC concentration (WSCC) and total WSC per area (WSCA), strong genotype × environment interactions were reflected in the clear grouping of experiments into well-watered and water deficit environment clusters. Genetic correlations between experiments were high within clusters. Heritability for WSCC was larger than for WSCA, and significant associations were observed in both well-watered and water deficit experiment clusters between the WSC traits and nitrogen concentration, tillering, grains per m², and grain size. However, correlations between grain yield and WSCC or WSCA were weak and variable, suggesting that selection for these traits is not a better strategy for improving yield under drought than direct selection for yield.