Modeling the impact of subclinical measles transmission in vaccinated populations with waning immunity

Measles outbreak transmission in the ER waiting room: the role of vaccination

BACKGROUND

Measles is one of the most contagious infectious diseases. Spain was declared free of endemic measles transmission in 2017. However, less than half of EU/EEA countries have achieved vaccination coverage goals and measles outbreaks have been reported recently, some of them in healthcare facilities. The aim of this study was to present an outbreak in the pediatric emergency (ER) waiting room affecting a vaccinated healthcare worker.

METHODS

Descriptive study of an outbreak whose transmission occurred in the pediatric ER waiting room of a tertiary level hospital on the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands) in April 2024.

RESULTS

Between April 23 and May 12, 2024, four PCR-confirmed measles cases were identified, resulting in 407 contacts in healthcare center waiting rooms. One of the cases was a 26-year-old male nurse who had been correctly vaccinated with two doses of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine during childhood. Between May 7 and 10, during his infective period, he took two two-and-a-half-hour flights and lived together with nine people during a trip. No evidence of infection has been identified among the individuals with whom he lived neither the passengers and crew of the two flights.

CONCLUSIONS

In the emergency waiting room, an unvaccinated girl gave measles to two infants who were not yet old enough to be vaccinated and to a nurse who had been properly vaccinated as an infant. Despite generating more than 300 close contacts, the nurse did not infect anyone, suggesting that vaccination may help prevent both infection and transmission of measles.

Long-term waning of vaccine-induced immunity to measles in England: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Among people infected with measles in England between 2010 and 2019, the proportion of cases who had previously received two doses of vaccine has increased, especially among young adults. Possible explanations include rare infections in vaccinated individuals who did not gain immunity upon vaccination, made more common because fewer individuals in the population were born in the endemic era, before vaccination was introduced, and exposed as part of endemic transmission, or the waning of vaccine-induced immunity, which would present new challenges for measles control in near-elimination settings. We aimed to evaluate whether measles dynamics observed in England between 2010 and 2019 were in line with a waning of vaccine-induced immunity.

METHODS

We used a compartmental mathematical model stratified by age group, region, and vaccine status, fitted to individual-level case data reported in England from 2010 to 2019 and collected by the UK Health Security Agency. The deterministic model was fitted using Monte Carlo Markov Chains under three scenarios: without the waning of vaccine-induced immunity, with waning depending on time since vaccination, and with waning depending on time since vaccination, starting in 2000. We generated stochastic simulations from the fitted parameter sets to evaluate which scenarios could replicate the transmission dynamics observed in vaccinated cases in England.

FINDINGS

The scenario without waning overestimated the number of one-dose recipients among measles cases, and underestimated the number of two-dose recipients among cases older than 15 years (median 75 cases [95% simulation interval (SI) 44-124] in simulations without waning, 196 [95% SI 122-315] in simulations when waning was included, 188 [95% SI 118-301] in simulations when waning started in 2000, and 202 observed cases). The number of onward transmissions from vaccinated cases was 83% (95% credible interval 72-91%) of the number of transmissions from unvaccinated cases. The estimated waning rate was slow (0·039% per year of age; 95% credible interval 0·034-0·044% per year in the best-fitting scenario with waning starting in 2000), but sufficient to increase measles burden.

INTERPRETATION

Measles case dynamics in England are consistent with scenarios assuming the waning of vaccine-induced immunity. Since measles is highly infectious, slow waning leads to a heightened burden in outbreaks, increasing the number of measles cases in people who are both vaccinated and unvaccinated. Our findings show that although the vaccine remains highly protective against measles infections for decades and most transmission is connected to people who are unvaccinated, breakthrough infections are increasingly frequent for individuals aged 15 years and older who have been vaccinated twice.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research and Wellcome Trust.

Social vs. individual age-dependent costs of imperfect vaccination

In diseases with long-term immunity, vaccination is known to increase the average age at infection as a result of the decrease in the pathogen circulation. This implies that a vaccination campaign can have negative effects when a disease is more costly (financial or health-related costs) for higher ages. This work considers an age-structured population transmission model with imperfect vaccination. We aim to compare the social and individual costs of vaccination, assuming that disease costs are age-dependent, while the disease's dynamic is age-independent. A model for pathogen deterministic dynamics in a population consisting of juveniles and adults, assumed to be rational agents, is introduced. The parameter region for which vaccination has a positive social impact is fully characterized and the Nash equilibrium of the vaccination game is obtained. Finally, collective strategies designed to promote voluntary vaccination, without compromising social welfare, are discussed.

The impact of supplementary immunization activities on measles transmission dynamics and implications for measles elimination goals: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Measles has re-emerged globally due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals and immunity gap, which causes challenges in eliminating measles. Routine vaccination and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have greatly improved measles control, but the impact of SIAs on the measles transmission dynamics remains unclear as the vaccine-induced immunity wanes.

METHODS

We developed a comprehensive measles transmission dynamics model by taking into account population demographics, age-specific contact patterns, seasonality, routine vaccination, SIAs, and the waning vaccine-induced immunity. The model was calibrated by the monthly age-specific cases data from 2005 to 2018 in Jiangsu Province, China, and validated by the dynamic sero-prevalence data. We aimed to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of three-time SIAs during 2009-2012 (9.68 million and 4.25 million children aged 8 months-14 years in March 2009 and September 2010, respectively, and 140,000 children aged 8 months-6 years in March 2012) on the measles disease burden and explored whether additional SIAs could accelerate the measles elimination.

RESULTS

We estimated that the cumulative numbers of measles cases from March 2009 to December 2012 (in the short run) and to December 2018 (in the long run) after three-time SIAs (base case) were 6,699 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2,928-10,469), and 22,411 (15,146-29,675), which averted 45.0% (42.9%-47.0%) and 34.3% (30.7%-37.9%) of 12,226 (4,916-19,537) and 34,274 (21,350-47,199) cases without SIAs, respectively. The fraction of susceptibles for children aged 8-23 months and 2-14 years decreased from 8.3% and 10.8% in March 2009 to 5.8% and 5.8% in April 2012, respectively. However, the fraction of susceptibles aged 15-49 years and above 50 years increased gradually to about 15% in 2018 irrespective of SIAs due to the waning immunity. The measles elimination goal would be reached in 2028, and administrating additional one-off SIAs in September 2022 to children aged 8-23 months, or young adolescents aged 15-19 years could accelerate the elimination one year earlier.

CONCLUSIONS

SIAs have greatly reduced the measles incidence and the fraction of susceptibles, but the benefit may wane over time. Under the current interventions, Jiangsu province would reach the measles elimination goal in 2028. Additional SIAs may accelerate the measles elimination one year earlier.

NOTE ON THE UNIQUENESS OF AN ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH BOOSTING OF IMMUNITY

For some diseases, it is recognized that immunity acquired by natural infection and vaccination subsequently wanes. As such, immunity provides temporal protection to recovered individuals from an infection. An immune period is extended owing to boosting of immunity by asymptomatic re-exposure to an infection. An individual’s immune status plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases at the population level. We study an age-dependent epidemic model formulated as a nonlinear version of the Aron epidemic model, which incorporates boosting of immunity by a system of delay equations and study the existence of an endemic equilibrium to observe whether boosting of immunity changes the qualitative property of the existence of the equilibrium. We establish a sufficient condition related to the strength of disease transmission from subclinical and clinical infective populations, for the unique existence of an endemic equilibrium.

A challenging modified measles outbreak in vaccinated healthcare providers

BACKGROUND

Modified measles is rarely reported and thought to be an attenuated, less transmissible form of measles. The occupational safety and management of previously immunized healthcare providers (HCP) facing the global reemergence of measles is controversial and unclear.Aim: We report a measles outbreak with an unusual presentation among our vaccinated HCP at Saint George Hospital University Medical Center (SGHUMC) in Lebanon that occurred during a nationwide measles epidemic.

METHODS

We recorded cases at SGHUMC, a 333-bed tertiary-care center, from April 2018 to June 2018. We established a measles clinic for investigating all febrile patients. HCP exposure was linked to influx of index cases through our Emergency Department. Modified measles was defined as any variation in the classic presentation with a pinpoint/vesicular rash, documented exposure and evidence of prior immunity. We performed serology testing to diagnose and/or document immunity and implemented outbreak controls measures including PPE, airborne isolation, and mass notification.

FINDINGS

We diagnosed 8 inpatients with classic measles, and 9 affected HCP. We diagnosed 8 HCP with modified measles. One previously immunized HCP developed classic measles despite being immunized and having a positive IgG titer. Our contact tracing revealed a total of 96 exposed HCP with 27 HCP showing non-specific signs of viral illness. We required all the 9 affected HCP to undergo home isolation.

CONCLUSION

We believe it is a top priority to achieve adequate measles immunity, especially among HCP that are at the frontline of healthcare systems. This necessitates revisiting vaccination schedules and achieving seroprotective titers to reclaim proper herd immunity.

Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration

When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact the risk and persistence of measles outbreaks. To this end, we apply an individual-based model, Stride, to a population of 600,000 individuals, using data from Flanders, Belgium. We construct a metric to estimate the level of within-household susceptibility clustering in the population. Furthermore, we compare realistic scenarios regarding the distribution of susceptible individuals within households in terms of their impact on epidemiological measures for outbreak risk and persistence. We find that higher levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals increase the risk, size and persistence of measles outbreaks. Ignoring within-household clustering thus leads to underestimations of required measles elimination and outbreak mitigation efforts.

Evidence for Residual Immunity to Smallpox After Vaccination and Implications for Re-emergence

INTRODUCTION

Smallpox has been eradicated but advances in synthetic biology have increased the risk of its re-emergence. Residual immunity in individuals who were previously vaccinated may mitigate the impact of an outbreak, but there is a high degree of uncertainty about the duration and degree of residual immunity. Both cell-mediated and humoral immunity are thought to be important but the exact mechanisms of protection are unclear. Guidelines usually suggest vaccine-induced immunity wanes to zero after 3-10 years post vaccination, whereas other estimates show long term immunity over decades.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted to quantify the duration and extent of residual immunity to smallpox after vaccination.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine papers related to quantifying residual immunity to smallpox after vaccination were identified: neutralizing antibody levels were used as immune correlates of protection in 11/16 retrospective cross-sectional studies, 2/3 epidemiological studies, 6/7 prospective vaccine trials and 0/3 modeling studies. Duration of protection of >20 years was consistently shown in the 16 retrospective cross-sectional studies, while the lowest estimated duration of protection was 11.7 years among the modeling studies. Childhood vaccination conferred longer duration of protection than vaccination in adulthood, and multiple vaccinations did not appear to improve immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

Most studies suggest a longer duration of residual immunity (at least 20 years) than assumed in smallpox guidelines. Estimates from modeling studies were less but still greater than the 3-10 years suggested by the WHO Committee on International Quarantine or US CDC guidelines. These recommendations were probably based on observations and studies conducted while smallpox was endemic. The cut-off values for pre-existing antibody levels of >1:20 and >1:32 reported during the period of endemic smallpox circulation may not be relevant to the contemporary population, but have been used as a threshold for identifying people with residual immunity in post-eradication era studies. Of the total antibodies produced in response to smallpox vaccination, neutralizing antibodies have shown to contribute significantly to immunological memory. Although the mechanism of immunological memory and boosting is unclear, revaccination is likely to result in a more robust response. There is a need to improve the evidence base for estimates on residual immunity to better inform planning and preparedness for re-emergent smallpox.

Waning immunity and re-emergence of measles and mumps in the vaccine era

Vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD) including measles and mumps have been re-emerging in countries with sustained high vaccine coverage. For mumps, waning immunity has been recognized as a major contributor to recent outbreaks. Although unvaccinated individuals account for most cases in recent measles outbreaks, the role of immune waning remains unclear. Accumulating serological and epidemiological evidence suggests that natural immunity induced by infection may be more durable compared to vaccine-induced immunity. As the proportion of population immunity via vaccination gradually increases and boosting through natural exposures becomes rare, risk of outbreaks may increase. Mechanistic insights into the coupled immuno-epidemiological dynamics of waning and boosting will be important to understand optimal vaccination strategies to combat VPD re-emergence and achieve eradication.

Serological Immunity to Smallpox in New South Wales, Australia

The re-emergence of smallpox is an increasing and legitimate concern due to advances in synthetic biology. Vaccination programs against smallpox using the vaccinia virus vaccine ceased with the eradication of smallpox and, unlike many other countries, Australia did not use mass vaccinations. However, vaccinated migrants contribute to population immunity. Testing for vaccinia antibodies is not routinely performed in Australia, and few opportunities exist to estimate the level of residual population immunity against smallpox. Serological data on population immunity in Australia could inform management plans against a smallpox outbreak. Vaccinia antibodies were measured in 2003 in regular plasmapheresis donors at the Australian Red Cross Blood Service from New South Wales (NSW). The data were analysed to estimate the proportion of Australians in NSW with detectable serological immunity to vaccinia. The primary object of this study was to measure neutralising antibody titres against vaccinia virus. Titre levels in donor samples were determined by plaque reduction assay. To estimate current levels of immunity to smallpox infection, the decline in geometric mean titres (GMT) over time was projected using two values for the antibody levels estimated on the basis of different times since vaccination. The results of this study suggest that there is minimal residual immunity to the vaccinia virus in the Australian population. Although humoral immunity is protective against orthopoxvirus infections, cell-mediated immunity and immunological memory likely also play roles, which are not quantified by antibody levels. These data provide an immunological snapshot of the NSW population, which could inform emergency preparedness planning and outbreak control, especially concerning the stockpiling of vaccinia vaccine.

Modeling the waning and boosting of immunity from infection or vaccination

Immunity following natural infection or immunization may wane, increasing susceptibility to infection with time since infection or vaccination. Symptoms, and concomitantly infectiousness, depend on residual immunity. We quantify these phenomena in a model population composed of individuals whose susceptibility, infectiousness, and symptoms all vary with immune status. We also model age, which affects contact, vaccination and possibly waning rates. The resurgences of pertussis that have been observed wherever effective vaccination programs have reduced typical disease among young children follow from these processes. As one example, we compare simulations with the experience of Sweden following resumption of pertussis vaccination after the hiatus from 1979 to 1996, reproducing the observations leading health authorities to introduce booster doses among school-aged children and adolescents in 2007 and 2014, respectively. Because pertussis comprises a spectrum of symptoms, only the most severe of which are medically attended, accurate models are needed to design optimal vaccination programs where surveillance is less effective.

Immunogenicity and Safety of the Measles Vaccine in HIV-Infected Children: An Updated Systematic Review

Children infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at increased risk of measles morbidity and mortality. We searched abstracts from the PubMed, Embase, and Latin American and Caribbean Center on Health Sciences Information databases for articles published from the earliest date available through September 26, 2017. The primary outcome of interest was serological responses to measles vaccine, stratified by HIV infection status. A total of 2,858 potentially eligible articles were identified, and the final review included 12 studies published between 1992 and 2013, 9 of which reported data on vaccine safety. The studies we included represented 3,573 children, of whom at least 335 were infected with HIV, 788 were HIV-exposed but not infected, and 1,478 were unexposed to HIV. Four of the 12 studies found statistically significant reductions in seropositivity among HIV-infected children compared with HIV-uninfected children within 4 months of vaccination (prevalence ratio range, 0.44-0.70), and forest plots provided visual trends of decreasing immunity over time among HIV-infected children in 2 additional studies. No vaccine-related deaths or serious adverse events were reported. This updated review demonstrated limitations of the existing published literature but supported evidence of reduced immunogenicity of measles vaccine among HIV-infected children, supporting the World Health Organization recommendation to revaccinate HIV-infected children against measles following immune reconstitution with combination antiretroviral therapy.

Estimating age-specific vaccine effectiveness using data from a large measles outbreak in Berlin, Germany, 2014/15: evidence for waning immunity

BackgroundMeasles elimination is based on 95% coverage with two doses of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV2), high vaccine effectiveness (VE) and life-long vaccine-induced immunity. Longitudinal analysis of antibody titres suggests existence of waning immunity, but the relevance at the population-level is unknown.AimWe sought to assess presence of waning immunity by estimating MCV2 VE in different age groups (2-5, 6-15, 16-23, 24-30 and 31-42 years) in Berlin.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review on vaccination coverage and applied the screening-method using data from a large measles outbreak (2014/15) in Berlin. Uncertainty in input variables was incorporated by Monte Carlo simulation. In a scenario analysis, we estimated the proportion vaccinated with MCV2 in those 31-42 years using VE of the youngest age group, where natural immunity was deemed negligible.ResultsOf 773 measles cases (median age: 20 years), 40 had received MCV2. Average vaccine coverage per age group varied (32%-88%). Estimated median VE was  > 99% (95% credible interval (CrI): 98.6-100) in the three youngest age groups, but lower (90.9%, 95% CrI: 74.1-97.6) in the oldest age group. In the scenario analysis, the estimated proportion vaccinated was 98.8% (95% CrI: 96.5-99.8).ConclusionVE for MCV2 was generally high, but lower in those aged 31-42 years old. The estimated proportion with MCV2 should have led to sufficient herd immunity in those aged 31-42 years old. Thus, lower VE cannot be fully explained by natural immunity, suggesting presence of waning immunity.

An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections

Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.

Reduced immunity to measles in adults with major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND

Depression can impair the immunogenicity of vaccine administration in adults. Whereas many vaccinations are administered in childhood, it is not known whether adolescent or adult onset depression is associated with impairments in the maintenance of protection of childhood vaccines. This study tested the hypothesis that individuals with adolescent or adult onset mood disorders would display compromised immunity to measles, a target of childhood vaccination.

METHODS

IgG antibodies to measles were quantified using a solid phase immunoassay in volunteers with bipolar disorder (BD, n = 64, mean age of onset = 16.6 ± 5.6), currently depressed individuals with major depressive disorder (cMDD, n = 85, mean age of onset = 17.9 ± 7.0), remitted individuals with a history of MDD (rMDD, n = 82, mean age of onset = 19.2 ± 8.6), and non-depressed comparison controls (HC, n = 202), all born after the introduction of the measles vaccine in the USA in 1963.

RESULTS

Relative to HC, both the cMDD group (p = 0.021, adjusted odds ratios (OR) = 0.47, confidence interval (CI) = 0.24-0.90), and the rMDD group (p = 0.038, adjusted OR = 0.50, CI = 0.26-0.97) were less likely to test seropositive for measles. Compared with unmedicated MDD participants, currently medicated MDD participants had a longer lifetime duration of illness and were less likely to test seropositive for measles.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with adolescent or adult onset MDD are less likely to test seropositive for measles. Because lower IgG titers are associated with increased risk of measles infection, MDD may increase the risk and severity of infection possibly because of impaired maintenance of vaccine-related protection from measles.

Current perspectives in assessing humoral immunity after measles vaccination

INTRODUCTION

Repeated measles outbreaks in countries with relatively high vaccine coverage are mainly due to failure to vaccinate and importation; however, cases in immunized individuals exist raising questions about suboptimal measles vaccine-induced humoral immunity and/or waning immunity in a low measles-exposure environment.

AREAS COVERED

The plaque reduction neutralization measurement of functional measles-specific antibodies correlates with protection is the gold standard in measles serology, but it does not assess cellular-immune or other parameters that may be associated with durable and/or protective immunity after vaccination. Additional correlates of protection and long-term immunity and new determinants/signatures of vaccine responsiveness such as specific CD46 and IFI44L genetic variants associated with neutralizing antibody titers after measles vaccination are under investigation. Current and future systems biology studies, coupled with new technology/assays and analytical approaches, will lead to an increasingly sophisticated understanding of measles vaccine-induced humoral immunity and will identify 'signatures' of protective and durable immune responses.

EXPERT OPINION

This will translate into the development of highly predictive assays of measles vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and durability for prospective identification of potential low/non-responders and susceptible individuals who require additional vaccine doses. Such new advances may drive insights into the development of new/improved vaccine formulations and delivery systems.

Targeting Adults for Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Control in Central China: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) have significantly improved measles control over the past two decades in China. Progress towards eliminating measles currently faces multiple challenges as the infection age increases, and adult-targeted SIA strategies are being considered. This study developed an age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model using a recently published contact matrix to depict measles transmissions between individuals in seven age groups. Hubei, a high measles-incidence province in central China, was the selected setting. The baseline scenario was calibrated by fitting with the 2012–2015 age-stratified incidence data. SIAs targeting multiple age groups were simulated. Adult-targeted (>29 years) two-year SIA cycles produced the greatest annual incidence rate decrease, reducing incidences by half over a long timespan with 90% coverage levels. Incidences could remain below 10/100,000 until 2030 if SIAs were provided to individuals ≥6 years old with at least 50% coverage. These findings will help officials prioritize supplementary vaccination strategies. Public health officials in China should consider adult-to-adult transmissions and provide adult-targeted SIAs. Although officials have reported approximately 90% SIA coverage in the past, SIAs for the adult population should be provided on shorter intervals, particularly for the aging population with decreased immunity.

Resistance gained, resistance lost: An explanation for host-parasite coexistence

Host populations are under continual selection by parasites due to reduced fitness of infected individuals relative to uninfected individuals. This should select for host resistance against parasites, and ample evidence from the laboratory and natural populations demonstrates that hosts can respond rapidly to parasitism by evolving resistance. Why then do parasites still exist? In part, this is due to ongoing arms races as parasites evolve counteradaptations to overcome resistance and to the presence of spatial structure and refuges. However, host-parasite coexistence can also be explained through loss of resistance over time due either to selection against costly resistance mechanisms or constant loss of resistance via reversion mutations.

Reduced Antibody Response to Infant Measles Vaccination: Effects Based on Type and Timing of the First Vaccine Dose Persist After the Second Dose

Background

The effect of age at first dose on the immunogenicity of a 2-dose pediatric schedule of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) or measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine was assessed in children born to mostly vaccinated mothers.

Methods

Immunogenicity data among children given their first measles vaccine dose between 11 and 22 months of age were pooled from 5 randomized controlled trials conducted in Europe and the United States between 2004 and 2010. Measles antibody titers were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay before and after each dose; geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and the proportion seronegative (GMC <150 mIU/mL) were derived by age at first dose.

Results

Among 5542 children given a first measles vaccine dose at 11, 12, 13-14, and 15-22 months of age, the proportion seronegative decreased from 8.5% to 3.2%, 2.4%, and 1.5%, respectively (P < .001), whereas GMCs increased with older age measles vaccine initiation (P < .001). MMRV induced higher GMCs than MMR (P < .001). First and second dose GMCs were highly correlated (Spearman coefficient = 0.8).

Conclusions

As previously noted among infants born to mothers with history of wild-type measles, antibody responses among children born to vaccinated mothers were reduced based on earlier administration of their first measles vaccine dose at ≤12 vs ≥15 months of age. Negative effects of earlier age at first measles vaccine dose persisted after the second dose. The measles elimination goal may require a careful balance between earlier infant protection and the risk of reduced antibody responses and secondary vaccine failure among successive birth cohorts systematically initiated to measles vaccination <15 months of age.

Measles elimination and immunisation: national surveillance trends in Japan, 2008-2015

Measles elimination relies on vaccination programmes. In Japan, a major outbreak started in 2007. In response, 5-year two-dose catch-up vaccination programme was initiated in April 2008 for children 13-16-years-old. In this study, we analysed the epidemic curves, incidence rates for each age group, virus genotype, vaccination coverage and ratio of measles gelatin particle agglutination (PA) antibody using surveillance data for 2008-2015. Monthly case counts markedly decreased as vaccination coverage increased. D5, which is the endemic virus type, disappeared after 2011, with the following epidemic caused by imported viruses. Most cases were confirmed to have a no-dose or single-dose vaccination status. Although the incidence rate among all age groups ⩾5-years-old decreased during the study period, for children <5-years-old, the incidence rate remained relatively high and increased in 2014. The ratio of PA antibody (⩾1:128 titres) increased for the majority of age groups, but with a decrease for specific age groups: the 0-5 months and the 2-4, 14, 19 and most of the 26-55- and the 60-year-old groups (-1 to -9%). This seems to be the result of higher vaccination coverage, which would result in decreasing natural immunity booster along with decreasing passive immunity in infants whose mothers did not have the natural immunity booster. The 20-29- and 30-39-year-old age groups had higher number of cases, suggesting that vaccination within these age groups might be important for eliminating imported viruses.

Immune Response to the Mumps Virus in Iranian Unvaccinated Young Adults

Although the first mumps vaccine was licensed more than 50 years ago, the vaccine was added to Iran's Expanded Program on Immunization in 2003. Therefore, the majority of Iranians born before 2003 are unvaccinated, and their immunity is the result of natural infection. In order to evaluate cellular responses against the mumps virus following natural infection, we investigated 90 Iranian unvaccinated adults aged 20-30 years. Mumps specific memory CD4+ and CD8+ proliferation and frequency of cytotoxic lymphocyte CD8+ CD107a were evaluated using flow cytometry. Our results showed that 33 subjects were seronegative, but 28 of them showed degranulation of CD8+ T lymphocytes and expression of CD 107a, as well as proliferation of CD4 and CD8 T cells, in response to mumps antigen stimulation. In all seropositive subjects, degranulation of cytotoxic T lymphocytes and proliferation of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes was detected. Proliferation of T cells and degranulation of CD8 T cells in seropositive subjects was higher than in seronegative subjects. We conclude that natural mumps infection and subclinical reinfection could induce good protection, but the severe complications associated with mumps infections suggest the need for mumps vaccination. Natural boosters because of the prevalence of the wild-type virus may help with maintenance of immunity in populations with high vaccine coverage.

Modelling and estimation of infectious diseases in a population with heterogeneous dynamic immunity

The paper presents a model for the evolution of an infectious disease in a population with individual-specific immunity. The immune state of an individual varies with time according to its own dynamics, depending on whether the individual is infected or not. The model involves a system of size-structured (first-order) PDEs that capture both the dynamics of the immune states and the transition between compartments consisting of infected, susceptible, etc.

INDIVIDUALS

Due to the unavailability of precise data about the immune states of the individuals, the main focus in the paper is on developing a technique for set-membership estimations of aggregated quantities of interest. The technique involves solving specific optimization problems for the underlying PDE system and is developed up to a numerical method. Results of numerical simulations are presented for a benchmark model of SIS-type, potentially applicable to diseases like influenza and to various sexually transmitted diseases.

Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis

The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care.

Persistence and Half-lives of Anti-measles and Anti-rubella Antibodies in Japanese Hospital Workers: A Longitudinal Study

Objective Antibody testing for endemic viruses in healthcare workers is used as an index of immunoprotection in Japan. However, it remains unclear how these antibody titers chronologically change and how they should be interpreted. Methods We retrospectively collected two sets of antibody titers to measles and rubella, measured in 2013 and within the preceding 5 years, in adult hospital workers by an enzyme-linked immunoassay and calculated in international units. Subjects infected with, or vaccinated against, these viruses over this period were eliminated. Seropositivities and geometric mean titers were analyzed. Decay rates and half-lives of antibodies were calculated using a mixed-effect model according to the subjects' ages and antibody titers. Results We analyzed 469 subjects for measles and 439 for rubella. Comparison with previous data revealed a mean measurement interval of 1,026 days between the previous and present tests, with seropositivity rates of 98.0% (previous) vs. 99.3% (present) for measles; 974 days and 90.7% vs. 94.9%, respectively, for rubella. For measles and rubella, 97.4% and 86.1%, respectively, of previously seropositive subjects remained positive in the present test. The geometric mean titers in the present and previous tests were 924.3 IU/mL and 853.2 IU/mL (measles) and 46.23 IU/mL and 40.78 IU/mL (rubella), respectively. In the mixed-effect model, measles and rubella antibody titers showed an increasing trend with age. Conclusion Seropositivities against measles and rubella can remain high for more than 5 years. Among adult hospital workers in Japan, the antibody titers against measles and rubella have a sufficient lifetime persistence.

Modeling the long-term antibody response of a hepatitis E vaccine

BACKGROUND

The first commercialized hepatitis E vaccine, HEV 239, has been shown to be safe and highly immunogenic, the protection as well as the vaccine-induced anti-HEV maintained for at least 4.5 years. However, the longer term persistence of the vaccine-induced anti-HEV responses is unknown.

METHODS

Two statistical models, the power-law model and the modified power-law model, were applied to predict the long-term antibody response of the HEV 239 vaccine. The models were fit using the anti-HEV IgG data from a modeling subpopulation of 1278 baseline seronegative vaccinees who seroconverted within one month after finishing the whole vaccination course in the phase 3 trial of HEV 239. In addition, antibody data from a validation subpopulation were used to validate the robustness of the derived models.

RESULTS

In the vaccinees without pre-vaccination immunity, the power-law model and the modified power-law model estimated that the median duration of the detectable antibody (≥0.077 WU/ml) was 8 years and 13 years, respectively. The power-law model and the modified power-law model estimated that 50% of these vaccinees will maintain detectable levels of anti-HEV IgG for 8 years and >30 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The recombinant hepatitis E vaccine HEV 239 is predicted to provide from 8 years to nearly life-long persistence of anti-HEV IgG above detectable levels. Model predictions are based on conservative mathematical assumptions. (NCT01014845).

Immuno-epidemiology of a population structured by immune status: a mathematical study of waning immunity and immune system boosting

When the body gets infected by a pathogen the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery the host might become susceptible again. Exposure to the pathogen in the environment boosts the immune system thus prolonging the time in which a recovered individual is immune. Such an interplay of within host processes and population dynamics poses significant challenges in rigorous mathematical modeling of immuno-epidemiology. We propose a framework to model SIRS dynamics, monitoring the immune status of individuals and including both waning immunity and immune system boosting. Our model is formulated as a system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs) coupled with a PDE. After showing existence and uniqueness of a classical solution, we investigate the local and the global asymptotic stability of the unique disease-free stationary solution. Under particular assumptions on the general model, we can recover known examples such as large systems of ODEs for SIRWS dynamics, as well as SIRS with constant delay.

Profiling of measles-specific humoral immunity in individuals following two doses of MMR vaccine using proteome microarrays

INTRODUCTION

Comprehensive evaluation of measles-specific humoral immunity after vaccination is important for determining new and/or additional correlates of vaccine immunogenicity and efficacy.

METHODS

We used a novel proteome microarray technology and statistical modeling to identify factors and models associated with measles-specific functional protective immunity in 150 measles vaccine recipients representing the extremes of neutralizing antibody response after two vaccine doses.

RESULTS

Our findings demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies directed to the measles virus (MV) phosphoprotein (P), nucleoprotein (N), as well as antibodies to the large polymerase (L) protein (fragment 1234 to 1900 AA). Antibodies to these proteins, in addition to anti-F antibodies (and, to a lesser extent, anti-H antibodies), were correlated with neutralizing antibody titer and/or were associated with and predictive of neutralizing antibody response.

CONCLUSION

Our results identify antibodies to specific measles virus proteins and statistical models for monitoring and assessment of measles-specific functional protective immunity in vaccinated individuals.

Outbreak of measles among persons with prior evidence of immunity, New York City, 2011

BACKGROUND

Measles was eliminated in the United States through high vaccination coverage and a public health system able to rapidly respond to measles. Measles may occur among vaccinated individuals, but secondary transmission from such individuals has not been documented.

METHODS

Suspected patients and contacts exposed during a measles outbreak in New York City in 2011 were investigated. Medical histories and immunization records were obtained. Cases were confirmed by detection of measles-specific immunoglobulin M and/or RNA. Tests for measles immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG avidity, measurement of measles neutralizing antibody titers, and genotyping were performed to characterize the cases.

RESULTS

The index patient had 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine; of 88 contacts, 4 secondary patients were confirmed who had either 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine or a past positive measles IgG antibody. All patients had laboratory confirmation of measles infection, clinical symptoms consistent with measles, and high-avidity IgG antibody characteristic of a secondary immune response. Neutralizing antibody titers of secondary patients reached >80 000 mIU/mL 3-4 days after rash onset and that of the index was <500 mIU/mL 9 days after rash onset. No additional cases of measles occurred among 231 contacts of secondary patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of measles transmission from a twice-vaccinated individual with documented secondary vaccine failure. The clinical presentation and laboratory data of the index patient were typical of measles in a naive individual. Secondary patients had robust anamnestic antibody responses. No tertiary cases occurred despite numerous contacts. This outbreak underscores the need for thorough epidemiologic and laboratory investigation of suspected cases of measles regardless of vaccination status.

Synergizing vaccinations with therapeutics for measles eradication

INTRODUCTION

The measles virus is a major human pathogen responsible for approximately 150,000 deaths annually. The disease is vaccine preventable and eradication of the virus is considered feasible, in principle. However, a herd immunity exceeding 95% is required to prevent sporadic viral outbreaks in a population. Declining disease prevalence, combined with public anxiety over the vaccination's safety, has led to increased vaccine refusal, especially in Europe. This has led to the resurgence of measles in some areas.

AREAS COVERED

This article discusses whether synergizing effective measles therapeutics with the measles vaccination could contribute to finally eradicating measles. The authors identify key elements in a desirable drug profile and review current disease management strategies and the state of experimental inhibitor candidates. The authors also evaluate the risk associated with viral escape from inhibition, and consider the potential of measles therapeutics in the management of persistent central nervous system (CNS) viral infection. Finally, the authors contemplate the possible impact of therapeutics in controlling the threat imposed by closely related zoonotic pathogens of the same genus as measles.

EXPERT OPINION

Efficacious therapeutics used for post-exposure prophylaxis of high-risk social contacts of confirmed index cases may aid measles eradication by closing herd immunity gaps; this is due to vaccine refusal or failure in populations with overall good vaccination coverage. The envisioned primarily prophylactic application of measles therapeutics to a predominantly pediatric and/or adolescent population, dictates the drug profile. It also has to be safe and efficacious, orally available, shelf-stable at ambient temperature and amenable to cost-effective manufacturing.

Plant–derived vaccines: a look back at the highlights and a view to the challenges on the road ahead

The sobering reality is that each year, 33 million children remain unvaccinated for vaccine-preventable diseases. Universal childhood vaccination would have profound effects on leveling the health inequities in many parts of the world. As an alternative to administration of vaccines by needle and syringe, oral vaccines offer significant logistical advantages, as the polio eradication campaign has demonstrated. Over the past decade, the expression of subunit vaccine antigens in plants has emerged as a convenient, safe and potentially economical platform technology, with the potential to provide a novel biotechnological solution to vaccine production and delivery. As this technology has come of age, many improvements have been made on several fronts, as a growing number of research groups worldwide have extensively investigated plants as factories for vaccine production. This review attempts to highlight some of the achievements over the past 15 years, identify some of the potential problems and discuss the promises that this technology could fulfill.

The genetic basis for interindividual immune response variation to measles vaccine: new understanding and new vaccine approaches

The live-attenuated measles vaccine is effective, but measles outbreaks still occur in vaccinated populations. This warrants elucidation of the determinants of measles vaccine-induced protective immunity. Interindividual variability in markers of measles vaccine-induced immunity, including neutralizing antibody levels, is regulated in part by host genetic factor variations. This review summarizes recent advances in our understanding of measles vaccine immunogenetics relative to the perspective of developing better measles vaccines. Important genetic regulators of measles vaccine-induced immunity, such as HLA class I and HLA class II genotypes, single nucleotide polymorphisms in cytokine/cytokine receptor genes (IL12B, IL12RB1, IL2, IL10) and the cell surface measles virus receptor CD46 gene, have been identified and independently replicated. New technologies present many opportunities for identification of novel genetic signatures and genetic architectures. These findings help explain a variety of immune response-related phenotypes and promote a new paradigm of 'vaccinomics' for novel vaccine development.

Epitope dampening monotypic measles virus hemagglutinin glycoprotein results in resistance to cocktail of monoclonal antibodies

The measles virus (MV) is serologically monotypic. Life-long immunity is conferred by a single attack of measles or following vaccination with the MV vaccine. This is contrary to viruses such as influenza, which readily develop resistance to the immune system and recur. A better understanding of factors that restrain MV to one serotype may allow us to predict if MV will remain monotypic in the future and influence the design of novel MV vaccines and therapeutics. MV hemagglutinin (H) glycoprotein, binds to cellular receptors and subsequently triggers the fusion (F) glycoprotein to fuse the virus into the cell. H is also the major target for neutralizing antibodies. To explore if MV remains monotypic due to a lack of plasticity of the H glycoprotein, we used the technology of Immune Dampening to generate viruses with rationally designed N-linked glycosylation sites and mutations in different epitopes and screened for viruses that escaped monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). We then combined rationally designed mutations with naturally selected mutations to generate a virus resistant to a cocktail of neutralizing mAbs targeting four different epitopes simultaneously. Two epitopes were protected by engineered N-linked glycosylations and two epitopes acquired escape mutations via two consecutive rounds of artificial selection in the presence of mAbs. Three of these epitopes were targeted by mAbs known to interfere with receptor binding. Results demonstrate that, within the epitopes analyzed, H can tolerate mutations in different residues and additional N-linked glycosylations to escape mAbs. Understanding the degree of change that H can tolerate is important as we follow its evolution in a host whose immunity is vaccine induced by genotype A strains instead of multiple genetically distinct wild-type MVs.

Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.

Measles

Measles is a highly contagious disease caused by measles virus and is one of the most devastating infectious diseases of man--measles was responsible for millions of deaths annually worldwide before the introduction of the measles vaccines. Remarkable progress in reducing the number of people dying from measles has been made through measles vaccination, with an estimated 164,000 deaths attributed to measles in 2008. This achievement attests to the enormous importance of measles vaccination to public health. However, this progress is threatened by failure to maintain high levels of measles vaccine coverage. Recent measles outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the USA show the ease with which measles virus can re-enter communities if high levels of population immunity are not sustained. The major challenges for continued measles control and eventual eradication will be logistical, financial, and the garnering of sufficient political will. These challenges need to be met to ensure that future generations of children do not die of measles.

Measles-mumps-rubella revaccination; 18 months vs. 4-6 years of age: potential impacts of schedule changes

OBJECTIVE

The policy of administering the second dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine (MMR(2)) has recently changed in Iran, at age 1.5 years instead of 4-6 years previously. The effects of such a change on the immune status of the individual are evaluated in this study.

METHODS

Totally 249 and 228 children aged 18 months and 4- to 6-year-olds, respectively, with a documented receipt of primary MMR vaccine at the age of ≥ 1 year were enrolled. Before, and 4-6 weeks after MMR(2) administration, anti-MMR IgG antibody levels were measured using ELISA method. IgM antibody levels were also assessed in measles-rubella seronegative children that responded to MMR(2). Collected data for each component from both age groups were compared by using Fischer's exact probability and chi-square tests.

RESULTS

Before revaccination, measles seroimmunity rate was similar between the two groups, but rates to mumps and rubella were significantly higher in younger children-measles: 74 vs. 78.3%; mumps: 82.3 vs. 68.4% and rubella: 75% vs. 67%, respectively. After administration of MMR(2), all seroimmune subjects were IgG boosted. Except for rubella, older seronegative children showed significantly higher seroconvertion rate to MMR(2) and seroprevalence rates increased in vaccinees--measles: 98.2 vs. 94%, mumps: 97 vs. 94.4% and rubella: 87 vs. 92.4%, respectively. Only few measles-rubella seronegative children showed IgM response to MMR(2).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the majority of younger children were susceptible to MMR infection before revaccination. Earlier age policy provides more protection against MMR in preschool-aged children. Rubella strain seems to be less potent than reported.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to support research and development portfolio prioritization for product innovations in measles vaccination

BACKGROUND

Several potential measles vaccine innovations are in development to address the shortcomings of the current vaccine. Funders need to prioritize their scarce research and development resources. This article demonstrates the usefulness of cost-effectiveness analysis to support these decisions.

METHODS

This study had 4 major components: (1) identifying potential innovations, (2) developing transmission models to assess mortality and morbidity impacts, (3) estimating the unit cost impacts, and (4) assessing aggregate cost-effectiveness in United Nations Children's Fund countries through 2049.

RESULTS

Four promising technologies were evaluated: aerosol delivery, needle-free injection, inhalable dry powder, and early administration DNA vaccine. They are projected to have a small absolute impact in terms of reducing the number of measles cases in most scenarios because of already improving vaccine coverage. Three are projected to reduce unit cost per dose by $0.024 to $0.170 and would improve overall cost-effectiveness. Each will require additional investments to reach the market. Over the next 40 years, the aggregate cost savings could be substantial, ranging from $98.4 million to $689.4 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-effectiveness analysis can help to inform research and development portfolio prioritization decisions. Three new measles vaccination technologies under development hold promise to be cost-saving from a global perspective over the long-term, even after considering additional investment costs.

Biological feasibility of measles eradication

Recent progress in reducing global measles mortality has renewed interest in measles eradication. Three biological criteria are deemed important for disease eradication: (1) humans are the sole pathogen reservoir; (2) accurate diagnostic tests exist; and (3) an effective, practical intervention is available at reasonable cost. Interruption of transmission in large geographical areas for prolonged periods further supports the feasibility of eradication. Measles is thought by many experts to meet these criteria: no nonhuman reservoir is known to exist, accurate diagnostic tests are available, and attenuated measles vaccines are effective and immunogenic. Measles has been eliminated in large geographical areas, including the Americas. Measles eradication is biologically feasible. The challenges for measles eradication will be logistical, political, and financial.

A large observational study to concurrently assess persistence of measles specific B-cell and T-cell immunity in individuals following two doses of MMR vaccine

The measurement of measles-specific neutralizing antibodies, directed against the surface measles virus hemagglutinin and fusion proteins, is considered the gold standard in measles serology. We assessed functional measles-specific neutralizing antibody levels in a racially diverse cohort of 763 young healthy adolescents after receipt of two doses of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, by the use of an automated plaque reduction microneutralization (PRMN) assay, and evaluated their relevance to protective antibody levels, as well as their associations with demographic and clinical variables. We also concurrently assessed measles-specific IFNγ Elispot responses and their relation to the observed antibody concentrations. The geometric mean titer for our cohort was 832mIU/mL (95% CIs: 776; 891). Sixty-eight subjects (8.9%) had antibody concentrations of less than the protective threshold of 210mIU/mL (corresponding to PRMN titer of 120; suggesting protection against symptomatic disease), and 177 subjects (23.2%) demonstrated persisting antibody concentrations above 1841mIU/mL (corresponding to PRMN titer of 1052; suggesting total protection against viral infection), 7.4 years after vaccination, in the absence of wild-type virus boosting. The mean measles-specific IFNγ Elispot response for our cohort was 46 (95% CIs: 43; 49) IFNγ-positive spots per 200,000 cells with no relation of cellular immunity measures to the observed antibody concentrations. No significant associations between antibody titers and demographic and clinical variables, including gender and race, were observed in our study. In conclusion, in a large observational study of measles immunity, we used an automated high-throughput measles virus-specific neutralization assay to measure humoral immunity, and concurrently determined measles-specific cellular immunity to aid the assessment of potential susceptibility to measles in vaccinated populations.

Absence of endemic measles transmission in a highly vaccinated population from 1999 to 2008: implications of sustained measles elimination in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Measles remains a leading vaccine-preventable cause of child mortality worldwide. The impact of vaccination programs can be seen in the increasingly low incidence of measles. However, cases of measles continue to occur in low numbers every year in Taiwan. We assessed the epidemiology of measles in Taiwan from 1999 to 2008 with a focus on domestic versus imported cases.

METHODS

We analyzed the data reported to surveillance systems at the Taiwan Center for Disease Control, where viral isolation was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 84 measles cases were reported from 1999 to 2008 in Taiwan with the incidence of measles varying from 0 to 1.5 per 1,000,000 people per year, peaking in 2002 and again in 2008. The incidence decreased with increasing age in both males and females. Among the 84 reported measles cases, 39 (46%) originated internationally, 8 (10%) were epidemiologically linked to imported cases and the source was unknown in 37 (44%) of the cases. The unknown-source cases were analyzed for potential evidence of endemic measles transmission. Most of the measles cases that occurred in Taiwan from 1999 to 2008 were associated with imported cases. No endemic transmission of measles in Taiwan was identified.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that maintaining the high rate of vaccination coverage is needed to prevent future outbreak and sustain the elimination of measles in Taiwan.

The emergence of translational epidemiology: from scientific discovery to population health impact

Recent emphasis on translational research (TR) is highlighting the role of epidemiology in translating scientific discoveries into population health impact. The authors present applications of epidemiology in TR through 4 phases designated T1-T4, illustrated by examples from human genomics. In T1, epidemiology explores the role of a basic scientific discovery (e.g., a disease risk factor or biomarker) in developing a "candidate application" for use in practice (e.g., a test used to guide interventions). In T2, epidemiology can help to evaluate the efficacy of a candidate application by using observational studies and randomized controlled trials. In T3, epidemiology can help to assess facilitators and barriers for uptake and implementation of candidate applications in practice. In T4, epidemiology can help to assess the impact of using candidate applications on population health outcomes. Epidemiology also has a leading role in knowledge synthesis, especially using quantitative methods (e.g., meta-analysis). To explore the emergence of TR in epidemiology, the authors compared articles published in selected issues of the Journal in 1999 and 2009. The proportion of articles identified as translational doubled from 16% (11/69) in 1999 to 33% (22/66) in 2009 (P = 0.02). Epidemiology is increasingly recognized as an important component of TR. By quantifying and integrating knowledge across disciplines, epidemiology provides crucial methods and tools for TR.

Humoral and cellular immune responses to measles and tetanus: the importance of elapsed time since last exposure and the nature of the antigen

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the cellular and humoral immune response pre- and post-vaccine rechallenge in healthy adults with previous exposure to measles (virus or vaccine) and different time intervals since last tetanus vaccine.

METHODS

Humoral immunity was tested by ELISA, and cellular immunity was tested by intracellular interferon gamma detection after in vitro stimulation with antigens.

RESULTS

While cellular immunity was comparable among vaccinated individuals and those who had measles, higher antibody levels were found in those who had the disease in the past. Both antibodies and CD4(+) T cell tetanus immune responses depended on elapsed time since last immunization. Following a vaccine booster, an increase in cellular immunity and antibodies was observed to both tetanus and measles. Measles humoral response was much more intense among individuals previously exposed to a wild virus.

CONCLUSIONS

In an era when natural boosters are less frequent, an immune surveillance might be necessary to investigate waning immunity as occurs for tetanus.

Scheduling of measles vaccination in low-income countries: projections of a dynamic model

Large-scale vaccination campaigns (SIAs) and improved routine immunization (RI) have greatly reduced measles incidence in low-income countries. However, the interval between SIAs required to maintain these gains over the long term is not clear. We developed a dynamic model of measles transmission to assess measles vaccination strategies in Cambodia, Ghana, India, Morocco, Nigeria, and Uganda. We projected measles cases from 2008 to 2050 under (a) holding SIAs every 2, 4, 6, or 8 years, (b) improvements in first dose routine measles vaccine (MCV1) coverage of 0%, 1%, 3% annually, and (c) introducing MCV2 once MCV1 coverage reaches 70%, 80%, 90%. If MCV1 continues improving, then India and Nigeria could hold SIAs every 4 years without significant probability of large outbreaks, and the other countries every 6-8 years. If RI remains stagnant, India and Nigeria should hold SIAs every 2 years, and the other countries every 4-6 years.