Social protection response to the COVID-19 crisis: options for developing countries

Participants' satisfaction with social security is closely associated with their acceptance of vulnerable groups: a nationwide cross-sectional study in China

Introduction

Social security, as a core component of the national welfare system, has consistently played a crucial role in ensuring the basic livelihood of citizens and promoting social equity and justice. Against this backdrop, this study explores the association between social security satisfaction and acceptance of vulnerable groups.

Methods

This study involved 9923 participants. Generalized linear regression and smooth curve fitting were used to assess the association between social security satisfaction and acceptance of vulnerable groups. Threshold effect was examined by piecewise regression. We conducted subgroup analyses and assessed the potential interaction effect.

Results

A non‑linear association was detected between social security satisfaction and inclusion of vulnerable groups with an inflection point of 45.00. When social security satisfaction was < 45.00, inclusion of vulnerable groups increased with increasing social security satisfaction score up to inflection point. The association between social security satisfaction and inclusion of vulnerable groups differed across gender, education level, and spouse subgroups.

Discussion

The study reveals the importance of social security satisfaction on their acceptance of vulnerable groups. It has a significant meaning in enhancing individuals' acceptance of vulnerable groups level.

Impact of emergency financial support program on testing demand, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, and social isolation during COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

Programs offering financial support have been established to mitigate the economic fallout and vulnerabilities arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, financial incentives were introduced to promote compliance with social isolation measures, thereby preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission. However, few low- and middle-income countries have implemented financial aid to alleviate the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the association between the Brazilian Emergency Aid (EA) Program and SARS-CoV-2 testing demand, SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, and social isolation levels.

METHODS

In this quasi-experimental study, we assessed microdata information from 380,000 individuals surveyed in the COVID-19 National Household Sample Survey (COVID-19 NHSS) between July 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2020. Individuals meeting the EA eligibility criteria, those who have taken the SARS-CoV-2 test, those diagnosed with COVID-19, and/or those complying with social isolation measures were included. Beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries were matched (1:1) using propensity score matching, combined with the entropy balance technique and inverse probability treatment weighting, considering all relevant socioeconomic and health covariates. We performed logistic regression to compute the monthly average impact of EA benefits on the outcomes above.

RESULTS

We included 171,183 performed tests, 19,218 COVID-19 cases, and individuals' self-response in complying with mild (N = 660,297), moderate (N = 597,159), strict social isolation (N = 149,125), and those who did not constrain social gatherings (N = 1,406,581). EA recipients showed greater testing demand (November; odds ratio [OR] = 1.014, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001-1.026); however, this did not significantly reduce SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. Beneficiaries adhered better to mild isolation from July-September (September; OR: 1.017, 95% CI: 1.007-1.028), with no significant improvement from October-November. EA beneficiaries did not adhere to moderate (July, OR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.94-0.97; November, OR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.80-0.86) or strict (July, OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.75-0.84; November, OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.73-0.81) isolation compared to non-beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the severe COVID-19 situation in Brazil owing to the lack of effective public health policies and government resistance to scientific guidance, being an EA beneficiary was associated with increased testing demand and better adherence to mild social isolation measures.

Strategic Alliances in Global Health: Innovative Perspectives in the Era of Sustainable Development

This article discusses current challenges in the field of global health and the World Health Organization's (WHO) strategies to address them. It highlights the importance of measuring the health impacts of global recession and globalization and the need for human-centered approaches to sustainable development. Emphasis is placed on commitment to health equity and the use of strategic partnerships for health at global, national, and local levels. Improving the health and well-being of populations, as well as public health equity, are core principles of the 2030 Agenda for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These principles are expressed in SDG 3, which promotes universal access to health services and systems and recognizes global health as a basic human right. It highlights the importance of strategic partnerships to combat emerging health crises, improve public health indices, and address the burden of chronic disease. These partnerships are contemplated in SDG 17 and are manifested in different modalities, such as network governance, cross-sector collaboration, public-private partnership, and social participation. This diversity of alliances has played an important role in scaling up and strengthening universal health systems around the world, including in Latin America and the Caribbean. The text concludes by presenting the essential characteristics of these inter-organizational and inter-institutional alliances in the field of global health.

Qualitative exploration of the impact of COVID-19 on the food environment of urban informal settlements of Dhaka, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

Our study explored the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food environment from the perspective of the urban poor and food vendors.

DESIGN

This was a qualitative study conducted during September 2020 and February 2021.

SETTING

The study was carried out in two purposively selected informal settlements of Dhaka City, Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

We conducted 21 in-depth interviews with residents of informal settlements and 10 key informant interviews with food vendors and food aid workers.

RESULT

The availability of staple foods was not disrupted during the pandemic but some perishables foods became more expensive due to supply chain disruptions and increased transportation costs. Limited market hours affected market access and mobility restrictions adversely affected local vendors. Cart vendors selling perishables incurred business losses they could ill afford. Demand for food reduced as employment disruption lead to reduced purchasing power and, therefore, reduction of quantity, quality and desirability of foods purchased. Respondents reported skipping meals and going hungry. The aid received was considered inadequate to meet needs.

CONCLUSION

The food environment of the urban poor was disrupted from both supply and demand sides and the organisational response (both government and non-government) was severely inadequate. The social safety net needs to be extended and redesigned to ensure food security and health for the urban working poor in the future.

The Gendered Consequences of COVID-19 for Internal Migration

Scant evidence exists to identify the effects of the pandemic on migrant women and the unique barriers on employment they endure. We merge longitudinal data from mobile phone surveys with subnational data on COVID cases to examine whether women were left more immobile and vulnerable to health risks, relative to men, during the pandemic in Kenya and Nigeria. Each survey interviewed approximately 2000 men and women over three rounds (November 2020-January 2021, March-April 2021, November 2021-January 2022). Linear regression analysis reveals internal migrants are no more vulnerable to knowing someone in their network with COVID. Rather, rural migrant women in Kenya and Nigeria were less vulnerable to transmission through their network, perhaps related to the possible wealth accumulation from migration or acquired knowledge of averting health risks from previous destinations. Per capita exposure to COVID cases hinders the inter-regional migration of women in both countries. Exposure to an additional COVID case per 10,000 people resulted in a decline in women's interregional migration by 6 and 2 percentage points in Kenya and Nigeria, respectively.

The moderating role of Covid-19-related support on urban livelihood capitals: Evidence from suburban Accra

In the Global South, the COVID-19 crisis has compelled varied efforts to quickly address the pandemic's impact on urban livelihoods. Families, friends as well as public, private, and civil society organizations have mobilized various resources to avert the pandemic's onslaught on the survival of the urban vulnerable. Indeed, there is a burgeoning ‘pandemic urban scholarship’ that shed insights on COVID-19 risks, local responses, and impacts on everyday urban life. Yet, it is unclear how many of these responses are affecting urban livelihoods. This paper thus investigates the impact of COVID-19 on urban livelihood capitals (financial, human, social, and physical) and analyses the moderating role of COVID-19-related support (from families, friends, government agencies, faith-based and non-governmental organizations) to address the pandemic's impact on these capitals. Drawing on a quantitative study in Adenta Municipality of the Greater Accra Region, Ghana, the study finds a negative association between COVID-19 impacts and all urban livelihood capitals. Crucially, COVID-19-related support only reduced the negative impact of the pandemic on financial capital, and not on the other forms of capital. The study suggests that building post-pandemic community resilience warrants the need to transition from the usual reactive, fragmented support to integrated, holistic, and contextually embedded long-term strategies that consider the multi-dimensionality of everyday urban life.

Labour Market Dynamics and Worker Flows in India: Impact of Covid-19

Tracking and analyzing the labour market dynamics at regular, frequent intervals is critical. However, this was not possible for India, a large emerging economy with a significant population undergoing demographic transition, due to a paucity of data. We use the new dataset Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)-Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) and use a panel to create Labour Flow Charts and Transition Matrices for India from January 2019 to December 2021. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time these were created for India. We then use that to look at the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian labour market. We not only look at transitions between employment, unemployment and out of labour force, but also across types of employment-full-time and part-time. The rich data also allows us to consider heterogeneity in the labour market and look at the differential impact of the pandemic across different education groups and gender. From the labour flow charts and transition probabilities, we find that while all groups have been impacted, the magnitude of the impact is different across groups. The recovery is also uneven, and the extent depends on education levels. Further, we do an event study analysis to examine the likelihood of getting a full-time job across different educational and gender groups. Men, on average, enjoy a higher likelihood of getting a full-time job than women. The likelihood coefficients also go up with increasing educational qualifications. Looking at skill heterogeneity, while the likelihood of getting a full-time job either goes down for most groups during the pandemic or the change is minuscule, strikingly it goes up for those with no education, for both men and women. The likelihood coefficients remain elevated for men even after the restrictions are removed, and that for women reverts to the level seen before the pandemic. Finally, this paper provides a way to continuously monitor the dynamics of the labour market as data is released in the regular intervals in the future, which would be of great value for researchers and policymakers alike.

The COVID-19 pandemic and food security in low- and middle-income countries: a review

We review findings from the emerging microeconomic literature on observed changes in food insecurity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we focus our review on studies in low- and middle-income countries that include household survey data measuring food insecurity collected both before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We first focus on several studies-seven from countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and one from India-that estimate immediate changes in food insecurity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we review subsequent analysis studying longer term changes in food insecurity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This review, therefore, complements existing macroeconomic projections of food insecurity based on expected changes in income and prices.

Nutrition-sensitive lockdowns: conceptual framework and empirical insights from Africa during COVID-19

Motivation

Countries facing challenges of nutrition security confront a trade-off when dealing with pandemics such as COVID-19. Implementing lockdown measures, widely used worldwide, can help "flatten the curve" (of disease), but such measures may worsen nutrition security.

Purpose

We aim to identify and justify nutrition-sensitive lockdown measures to reduce trade-offs with nutrition security.

Methods and approach

We propose a conceptual framework which distinguishes eight lockdown measures and six pathways to nutrition security. To demonstrate the relevance of the pathways, we reviewed emerging literature on COVID-19 and nutrition security. We analysed the content of 1,188 newspaper articles on lockdown effects in five African countries - Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia.

Findings

Some lockdown measures, such as closing workplaces and restricting movement, potentially worsen nutrition far more than others - banning events and public gatherings have far lesser impacts on nutrition. This can be seen from the framework, literature, and is supported by the analysis of newspaper reports in the five countries.

Policy implications

It is better when possible to test and trace disease than to lockdown. But when lockdowns are needed, then first recourse should be to measures that have few nutritional consequences, such as banning public events. When more drastic measures are necessary, look to mitigate nutritional harm by, for example, exempting farm labour from restrictions on movement, by replacing school meals with take-home rations, and, above all, providing income support to households most affected and most vulnerable.

COVID-19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania

This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.

From Social Protection to Personal Protection: Implications for an Integrated Framework of Retirement Planning for Informal Workers in Ghana

Without a mandatory retirement age, many informal workers are exploring diverse ways of ensuring their well-being as they age. This exploratory study focuses on the retirement plans of workers in Ghana's informal sector to inform interventions to ensure their well-being. Findings from 35 in-depth interviews among self-employed informal workers in Adum-Kumasi, the largest hub of Ghana's informal work, highlight that retirement planning is centred on self-protection through investment in economic and non-economic activities. The study contributes to the discourse on extending social protection coverage to informal work settings. It further recommends an integrated policy framework for social protection to cover a broad range of domains that are important for the well-being of informal workers in later life.

Financial inclusion and education: An empirical study of financial inclusion in the face of the pandemic emergency due to Covid-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean

Financial inclusion and education contribute to a country's development and economic growth. However, despite the significant efforts being made to increase access to financial products for women, a high percentage still do not have access to and effective use of formal financial services in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This study analyzes financial inclusion (based on gender equality) in the countries studied using a pooled-panel ordinary least squares econometric technique. Furthermore, the impact of interactions between the level of study, use of technology, academic degree during the Covid-19 restrictions, number of credit borrowers, and number of borrowers with the interaction of the restrictions during the health emergency was evaluated employing the Gini coefficient and human development index (HDI). This study confirms that Latin America and the Caribbean countries can increase financial inclusion by changing their social aspects based on gender equality to ease using technology and access to credit. The results of this study are helpful for policy-makers in formulating and implementing policies that lead to action plans that reverse an exclusionary financial system, promote financial education, and empower women.

COVID-19, state (in)visibility and structural violence in low- and middle-income countries

The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 on adolescents and youth in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) who have migrated for work, are among the urban poor, or have been forcibly displaced is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, this article draws on in-depth qualitative interviews undertaken between April and July 2020 with 249 adolescent girls and boys and 24 community key informants in Bangladesh and Ethiopia. These two countries have divergent social protection systems and thus provide a useful comparative lens to understand state provisioning for the most disadvantaged, including vulnerable young people, in crisis contexts. Despite rapid implementation of restrictions to halt viral spread, the mobilisation of social protection in response to the pandemic's socioeconomic effects has lagged. Using a lens of structural violence, findings underscore that socially marginalised young people are the most disadvantaged by state failures to deliver essential services or protection. There has also been insufficient support from humanitarian and development actors in responding to the challenges of the pandemic. The article concludes that identifying and addressing how structural inequalities shape access to and inclusion in social protection mechanisms can contribute to more effectively targeted measures to support the most disadvantaged, especially during crises.

Social Protection and Social Cohesion in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Kenya

This paper examines empirically whether social protection in the form of social assistance programmes are affecting social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using unique primary data from nationally representative, in-person surveys from Kenya allows for the exploration of the effect of social protection on attributes of social cohesion. The analysis employs a difference-in-differences approach that compares households with and without social assistance coverage before and after the first wave of the pandemic. The main findings show that social assistance does not influence attributes of social cohesion. One potential explanation of this result is that social assistance benefits were in general too small to entirely offset the negative economic consequences of the pandemic. Overall, these results point to the limitations of social assistance programmes that do not necessarily affect social cohesion in times of large covariate shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Humanitarian inversions: COVID-19 as crisis

COVID-19 is a multi-spectral crisis that has added an acute layer over a panoply of complex emergencies across the world. In the process, it has not only exposed actually-existing emergencies, but also exacerbated them as the global gaze has turned inward. As a crisis, COVID-19 straddles and challenges the boundaries between humanitarianism, development and global health - the frames and categories through which emergencies are so often understood and intervened upon. Reflection on these fundamental categories is, we argue, an important geographical endeavour. Drawing on Geoffrey Bowker's analytical lens of the 'infrastructural inversion', we explore how humanitarianism has been upended by Covid-19 along two axes that are of core concern to geographers: (1) the spatial; and (2) the temporal. We first contextualise current debates on the humanitarian endeavour and its future within recent geographical research. We then set out the complex structure by which COVID-19 has been both imagined and intervened upon as a humanitarian emergency. In so doing, we then pave the way for a deeper empirical analysis of the spatial and temporal inversions that have been brought forth by COVID-19. The paper concludes by examining the conceptual value of the 'inversion' in developing geographical research agendas better attuned to the increasing porosity of humanitarianism, development and global health.

Building community resilience during COVID‐19: Learning from rural Bangladesh

The COVID‐19 pandemic has brought overwhelming challenges to developing countries which are already resource‐constrained and lack adequate social safety nets. Specifically, lockdown has adversely impacted marginalized communities (e.g., labourer, fish wholesaler and small business owner) and informal sector employees who rely on meager daily wages for their survival. Set in the contested climate of the emergency response to the COVID‐19 outbreak in Phulbari, Dinajpur, Bangladesh, we examine the early response of the community to the pandemic. Drawing on 24 in‐depth interviews with members of this community, we find that the existing central and regional government structure has failed to deal with the crisis. Yet, we show how collective effort at the local community level, led by volunteers and community leaders, is crucial in the fight against hardship during lockdown.

Employment inequality in India during the pandemic

Purpose

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-induced response policies initiated by the Indian states disproportionately impact the employment of different groups in terms of gender, caste and religion. This study analyses the impact of the COVID-19-induced labor policies on employment inequality across different groups in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors identify different exogenous COVID-19-induced labor policies initiated by the Indian states, and synthesize them into direct and indirect labor policies. The authors employ a panel model to examine the impact of COVID-19-induced labor policies on employment inequality.

Findings

The authors find that the direct and indirect labor policies induce a decline in the employment rate, and create employment inequality among gendered and religious sub-groups. Females and Muslims have not significantly benefited from the COVID-19-induced labor policies. However, disadvantaged caste groups have benefited from direct and indirect labor policies.

Research limitations/implications

The time period during which this research was conducted was quite brief, and the qualitative impact of labor policies on employment inequality has not been accounted for.

Practical implications

This study unravels the distributive impact of the COVID-19-induced direct and indirect labor policies on the well-being of vulnerable laborers.

Social implications

The study provides novel empirical evidence of the beneficial role of a proactive government. This study’s findings suggest the need for specific distributive labor policies to address employment inequality among gender and religious groups in India.

Originality/value

The study employs new data sources and synthesizes the COVID-19-induced labor policies into direct and indirect labor policies. In addition, the study contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 induced direct and indirect labor policies on employment inequality across gender, caste and religious sub-groups in India.

What Type of Households in Mongolia Are Most Hit by COVID-19?

The study aims to validate the measures taken by the government of Mongolia against COVID-19 and to analyse the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the livelihood of different types of households. The survey covers 362 households consisting of five different types, namely, apartment households, ger district households, herder households, vegetable growing households, and small farmer households. Principal component analysis is used to reduce the number of variables to a few factors that best explain the variation in the variables. Two to three components were found from the principal component analyses that describe (i) government policy, (ii) challenges due to COVID-19, and (iii) risk and vulnerability that occurred due to COVID-19. Multiple regression models attributed by the household’s type were used to analyse the impact of the selected variables on the households’ income. According to the regression results, herding households are the least affected, compared to the other four types of households. The government measures to mitigate the negative impacts of COVID-19 have better results for apartment households and ger district households. Rural households are less affected and seem to be more resilient to COVID-19 shocks than other households.

Surveillance and pandemic governance in least‐ideal contexts: The Philippine case

This paper inquires how surveillance manifests in least‐ideal contexts (LICs), that is, countries with resource constraints, poor governance and proclivity for populism during COVID‐19, and its implications for crisis governance. Using the Philippines as a case, we advance three arguments. First, LICs can become spaces where inappropriate surveillance is undertaken. Second, liminal surveillance practices can become permanent policy fixtures in LICs. Finally, when a prevailing crisis approach of a government is perceived to be inconsistent with the needs of the public, it can lead to a self‐help system among various societal groups and actors. This self‐help system may not necessarily be aligned with the general direction of the national government. As a result, it can perpetuate a disjointed and maladaptive crisis governance approach, where main actors like national governments, and complementary actors like private sector firms, local government units and citizen organizations pursue goals independent of one another.

A way forward for the South African quail sector as a potential contributor to food and nutrition security following the aftermath of COVID-19: a review

Commercial quail (Coturnix coturnix) farming has recently gained recognition from the South African poultry industry as a potential source of protein, which can be used to alleviate protein-energy malnutrition as well as food and nutrition insecurity in rural South Africa. Over six large-scale and hundred small-scale farmers are currently producing various quail breeds for commercial purposes in South Africa. However, these farmers face challenges of high feed costs, diseases, poor health care, low demand (for quail meat and eggs) and limited access to the markets. In addition, the lack of a pre-existing local market for quail meat and eggs has seen most farmers exporting these products to other countries, but with low profit margins owing to the slow growth experienced by world economies. Furthermore, the socio-economic crisis brought by the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exacerbated these challenges as most of the countries enforced nationwide lockdown to mitigate the spread of the virus. Although this initiative was taken to save lives, it left quail farmers not knowing where to trade their stock due to large uncertainties in the social and economic domain, compounded by the fact that many South African citizens are traditionally accustomed to chicken products. Moreover, the size of the quail in relation to its market price when compared to that of chickens continues to lower its demand causing a lot of quail businesses to collapse. Thus, it is imperative to explore strategies that can reduce the cost of producing quail, while increasing their demand and popularity. Non-conventional feed ingredients and phytogenic feed additives that are inexpensive, locally available, and readily accessible should be identified and evaluated in quail diets to deliver sustainable production systems that will ensure that these birds continue to play a significant role in food and nutrition security of humans. In addition, extension service workers and quail farmers need to form a collaborative team to increase awareness about the benefits of quail products and build a long-lasting and profitable quail business. In this work, we present potential rearing methods for commercial quail production, nutritional benefits of quail products, as well as nutritional solutions for a sustainable and profitable quail business. Lastly, we review prospective awareness programs and marketing strategies that are aimed at successful commercialisation of quail using various networks.

The effects of COVID-19 on livelihoods of rural households: South Wollo and Oromia Zones, Ethiopia

Even though the COVID-19 pandemic is a global phenomenon that is heavily affecting the lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing of the entire population, the degree and severity of its effects are different among groups and sectors. In developing countries, where there is poor infrastructure coupled with a low level of education and a high incidence of poverty, the pandemic would result in increased unemployment, decreased income for daily labor, increased food insecurity, depletion of saving and relief measures, and disrupted the marketing system, among others. Recently, some studies have been conducted in Ethiopia regarding the impact of the pandemic on the people and the country as a whole by reviewing the literature and mobile call surveys. However, those studies fail to capture the representative sample and empirical data to forward informed decisions. To this end, the present study has investigated the effect of COVID-19 on the livelihood activities of smallholder farm households in South Wollo and Oromia administrative Zones, Ethiopia. A multistage random sampling procedure was employed to draw 275 respondents out of 32,214 household heads. Data were collected through interview schedules, key informants and case studies from September to November 2020. Descriptive statistics, econometric analysis and qualitative approaches were employed to analyze the data. The major livelihood activities in the study area are crop production (97.4%), livestock rearing (77.4%), daily work (47%), small business (31.4%), livestock trading (30.7%), remittance (24.8%), labor migration (14.8%), sale of firewood (11.1%) and income from Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) (17%). The study shows that the livelihoods of 88.89% of the households were affected by the pandemic. The pandemic significantly affected and forced households to cease their livelihood activities such as daily labor (34.82%), small business trade (26.3%), livestock trading (23.7%), income from remittance (21.49%) and labor migration (11.48%). This implies that the pandemic particularly affected non-farm and off-farm livelihood diversification strategies. Therefore, the government and other rural development partners should focus on immediate and long-term intervention strategies to recover the most affected households through social security programs, creating market linkage and revolve funding mechanisms.

Political Stress and the Sustainability of Funded Pension Schemes: Introduction of a Financial Theory

This study introduces multiplayer game in the modern pension market. Particularly, this study claims that low earners and high earners have different interests when playing in funded pension market scheme. This differentiating is enabled by avoiding the entire society as a single earning cohort. This study using financial position, demonstrates a socio-economic anomaly in the funded pension system, which is in favor of high-earning cohorts at the expense of low-earning cohorts. This anomaly is realized by a lack of insurance and exposure to financial and systemic risks. Furthermore, the anomaly could lead to a pension re-reform back to an unfunded scheme system, due mostly to political pressure. This study found that a minimum pension guarantee is a rebalance mechanism for this anomaly, which increases the probability of a sustainable pension scheme. Nowadays when countries try to balance between social expenses and awaking financial markets, one may find this theory highly relevant. It is obviously one of the cases where social targets meat financial equilibrium and here they are in the same side. Specifically, it is argued that implementing the guarantee with an intra-generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most efficient way to reduce the effect of this abnormality.

Assessment of Excess Mortality and Household Income in Rural Bangladesh During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

IMPORTANCE

A slow or incomplete civil registry makes it impossible to determine excess mortality due to COVID-19 and difficult to inform policy.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with excess mortality and household income in rural Bangladesh in 2020.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This repeated survey study is based on an in-person census followed by 2 rounds of telephone calls. Data were collected from a sample of 135 villages within a densely populated 350-km2 rural area of Bangladesh. Household data were obtained first in person and subsequently over the telephone. For the analysis, mortality data were stratified by month, age, sex, and household education. Mortality rates were modeled by bayesian multilevel regression, and the strata were aggregated to the population by poststratification. Data analysis was performed from February to April 2021.

EXPOSURES

Date and cause of any changes in household composition, as well as changes in income and food availability.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality rates were compared for 2019 and 2020, both without adjustment and after adjustment for nonresponse and differences in demographic variables between surveys. Income and food availability reported for January, May, and November 2020 were also compared.

RESULTS

Enumerators collected data from an initial 16 054 households in January 2020; 14 551 households (91%) responded when contacted again by telephone in May 2020, and 11 933 households (74%)responded when reached again over the telephone in November 2020, for a total of 58 806 individuals (29 726 female participants [50.5%]; mean [SD] age, 26.4 [19.8] years). A total of 276 deaths were reported between February and the end of October 2020 for the subset of the population that could be contacted twice over the telephone, slightly below the 289 deaths reported for the same population over the same period in 2019. After adjustment for survey nonresponse and poststratification, 2020 mortality changed by -8% (95% CI, -21% to 7%) compared with an annualized mortality of 6.1 deaths per 1000 individuals in 2019. However, in May 2020, salaried primary income earners reported a 40% decrease in monthly income (from 17 485 to 10 835 Bangladeshi Taka), and self-employed earners reported a 60% decrease in monthly income (23 083 to 8521 Bangladeshi Taka), with only a small recovery observed by November 2020.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study of households in rural Bangladesh, all-cause mortality was lower in 2020 compared with 2019. Restrictions imposed by the government may have limited the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in rural areas, although economic data suggest that these restrictions need to be accompanied by expanded welfare programs.

Financial Inclusion Paradigm Shift in the Postpandemic Period. Digital-Divide and Gender Gap

Financial inclusion is strongly differentiated by age groups and countries and the pandemic has highlighted the increased gaps and inequalities but also the weaknesses of the system, in terms of flexibility, access and facilities of the customer-bank relationship and also from the perspective of the financial education of young generations and vulnerable people, active in the labor market. Based on the available data provided by the Global Findex database, and some findings after more than one year of COVID-19 crisis we outlined the main aspects of financial digitization, by categories of people and countries. At the same time, we identified the challenges and problems during the pandemic that significantly adjusted the consumption pattern of citizens and increased the need for on-line access for financial transactions. Starting from the analysis of the inequality of access to financial instruments in the last years, from the informational asymmetry in financial education and the challenges of the pandemic period, we underlined the main coordinates of changing the model of sustainable financial inclusion-based on five pillars-access, education, support tools, CSR and resilience. The research results highlight the need for convergence in providing opportunities to consider financial inclusion as a public good and an active tool to increase consumers' satisfaction and the quality of life of individuals.

Increasing impact of COVID-19 on young adults: evidence from hospitalisations in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

Concerns about the increasing impact of severe COVID-19 in younger individuals in Brazil came after a recent synchronised country-wide wave of cases in Brazil. This communication analyses how hospitalisations due to COVID-19 changed in the age groups 18-49 years and ≥70 years.

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal study based on secondary data.

METHODS

Data from SIVEP-Gripe, a public and open-access database of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness records (including COVID-19 notifications), were used in this study. Statistical control charts examined changes in the magnitude and variation of younger (18-49 years) and older (≥70 years) adults who were hospitalised between 15th March 2020 and 19th June 2021.

RESULTS

During the few first weeks of the pandemic in Brazil, the number of COVID-19 hospitalisations increased in older adults but decreased in younger adults. Subsequently, hospitalisations reached statistical control zones in epidemiological weeks (EW) 19-48 of 2020 (EW 19-48/2020) and EW 03-05/2021 (18-49 y, mean = 26.1%; ≥70 y, mean = 32.8%). Between EW 49/2020 and EW 02/2021, the number of hospitalisations of younger adults dropped to levels below the lower control limit. In contrast, the number of hospitalisations of older adults surpassed the upper limit of the corresponding statistical control zones. However, from EW 06/2021, numbers of hospitalisations changed from statistical control zones, with hospitalisations of younger adults increasing and reaching 44.9% in EW 24/2021 and hospitalisations of older adults decreasing until EW 19/2021 (14.1%) and reaching 17.3% in EW 24/2021.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing number of COVID-19 hospitalisations were observed in younger adults from EW 06/2021. This could be a result of the successful vaccination programme in older adults, who were initially prioritised, and possibly an increased exposure to highly transmissible variants of COVID-19 in younger adults who had to go to work in the absence of social protection (i.e. government financial support). Potential consequences of COVID-19 hospitalisations in younger adults could include a reduced life expectancy of the population and an increased number of people unable to perform daily activities due to post-COVID-19 conditions.

COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Asia and Africa's aquatic food value chains

The COVID-19 pandemic is a shock affecting all areas of the global food system. We tracked the impacts of COVID-19 and associated policy responses on the availability and price of aquatic foods and production inputs during 2020, using a high frequency longitudinal survey of 768 respondents in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Myanmar, Nigeria. We found the following: (1) Aquatic food value chains were severely disrupted but most effects on the availability and accessibility of aquatic foods and production inputs were short-lived. (2) Impacts on demand for aquatic foods, production inputs, and labor have been longer lasting than impacts on their supply. (3) Retail prices of aquatic foods spiked briefly during March-May 2020 but trended down thereafter, whereas prices of production inputs rose. These trends suggest a deepening 'squeeze' on the financial viability of producers and other value chain actors. (4) Survey respondents adapted to the challenges of COVID-19 by reducing production costs, sourcing alternative inputs, diversifying business activities, leveraging social capital, borrowing, seeking alternative employment, and reducing food consumption. Many of these coping strategies are likely to undermine well-being and longer-term resilience, but we also find some evidence of proactive strategies with potential to strengthen business performance. Global production of aquatic food likely contracted significantly in 2020. The importance of aquatic food value chains in supporting livelihoods and food and nutrition security in Asia and Africa makes their revitalization essential in the context of COVID-19 recovery efforts. We outline immediate and longer-term policies and interventions to support this goal.

Assessment of early COVID-19 compliance to and challenges with public health and social prevention measures in the Kingdom of Eswatini, using an online survey

Public health and social measures have been implemented around the world in a bid to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Public compliance with these measures is key in successfully controlling the pandemic. This online survey assessed the compliance and attitude of adults residing in the southern African Kingdom of Eswatini to government protection, activity and travel measures aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19. A rapid online survey, comprising of 28 questions, was administered in May 2020. More than 90% of respondents knew the virus could kill anyone and most respondents (70%) reported to be compliant to public health and social measures. Females, those who did not use public transport and those aged 30 years and above were significantly (p<0.01) more compliant, particularly to protective and travel measures. Social media, television and official government websites were the primary source of ongoing COVID-19 information for respondents of this online survey, and these methods should continue to be employed to reach the public who regularly use the internet. More than half of essential workers who responded to the online survey reported to have their own personal protective equipment; however, 32% either did not have any protective equipment or shared their equipment with other staff members. Due to the survey being online, these results should not be generalised to populations of low socioeconomic status.

Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America

Since March 2020, governments have recommended or enacted lockdown policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Yet, poorer segments of the population cannot afford to stay at home and must continue to work. In this paper, we test whether work-related mobility is effectively influenced by the local intensity of poverty. To do so, we exploit poverty data and Google mobility data for 242 regions of nine Latin American and African countries. We find that the drop in work-related mobility during the first lockdown period was indeed significantly lower in high-poverty regions compared to other regions. We also illustrate how higher poverty has induced a faster spread of the virus. The policy implication is that social protection measures in the form of food or cash trasfers must be complementary to physical distancing measures. Further research must evaluate how such transfers, when implemented, have attenuated the difference between poor and non-poor regions in terms of exposure to the virus.

The coronavirus pandemic and food security: Evidence from Mali

This paper documents some of the first estimates of changes in experienced food insecurity associated with the coronavirus pandemic in a low-income country. It combines nationally representative pre-pandemic household survey data with follow-up phone survey data from Mali and examines sub-national variation in the intensity of pandemic-related disruptions between urban and rural areas. Although rural households are more likely to experience food insecurity prior to the pandemic, we find that food insecurity increased more in urban areas than in rural areas. Just three months after the onset of the pandemic, the rural-urban gap in experienced food insecurity completely vanished. These findings highlight that understanding effect heterogeneity is critically important to effectively designing and targeting post-pandemic humanitarian assistance.

India's COVID-19 social assistance package and its impact on the agriculture sector

CONTEXT

CVOID-19 induced significant economic and social disruptions in India. Rural households, including smallholders, were affected by loss in migrant income, livelihood and farm and non-farm incomes. During this lockdown, the Indian government enacted several emergency legislations to provide direct and indirect relief to workers and households. India's COVID-19 social assistance package, namely, PM-GKY, announced in March 2020, was designed to provide immediate relief to the vulnerable population. The PM-GKY provided cash direct benefit transfers (DBT) and in-kind supports (IKS) through existing schemes.

OBJECTIVES

This study examines the impact of India's government assistance package (known as Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana or PM-GKY), announced immediately after the COVID-19 lockdown, on the procurement of agricultural inputs for the upcoming farming season.

METHODS

The study uses a quasi-experimental method and survey data from 1,789 smallholder households in three northern Indian states (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh).

RESULTS

The result suggests that the fungibility of funds received under the government transfer package was significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing agricultural investments in agricultural inputs. The farmers who received benefits from the PM-GKY scheme spent significantly more on the procurement of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides.

CONCLUSIONS

The disbursement of cash transfers in the three states showed that emergency relief packages had reached the vulnerable sections of Indian society. Overall, 89-94% of households benefited from direct cash transfers. Perhaps lower transaction costs, minimal leakages, and immediate delivery make a strong case for direct cash transfers. The above advantages facilitate the provision of relief to a large proportion of vulnerable sections of Indian society in a short period.

Comparing the socio-economic implications of the 1918 Spanish flu and the COVID-19 pandemic in India: A systematic review of literature

The focus of the present study is to compare and assess the socio‐economic implications of the 1918 influenza pandemic and the COVID‐19 pandemic in India. Both pandemics are similar in the nature of their disease and spread, and have had a far‐reaching impact on society and economies worldwide. To achieve their objective, the researchers adopted the method of systematic literature review (SLR). The findings of the review have been categorised in four subsections: comparison of 1918 influenza and COVID‐19 pandemics in a global context; economic consequences of a pandemic in India; social consequences of a pandemic in India; and the pandemic mitigation measures adopted by India. The findings suggest there are similarities in the socio‐economic implications of the two pandemics and also indicate that developing countries face more severe implications of such pandemics as compared to developed countries. The research findings from the review of literature are followed by the recommendations made by the researchers.

COVID-19, Government Transfer Payments, and Investment Decisions in Farming Business: Evidence from Northern India

Although the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in about a 24% decline in India's GDP during the April-June 2020 quarter, the nation's agricultural sector, somewhat surprisingly, seems to have done remarkably well. This paper examines whether the public transfer program Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), announced immediately after the lockdown, benefited farmers in dealing with the COVID shock. Overall, 95% of the smallholders received support from at least one of PMGKY's four components. Direct cash transfers had significantly more impact than in-kind transfer schemes. The result shows that farmers receiving cash transfers under PM-KISAN, one component of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in buying seeds. In contrast, farmers receiving cash transfers under PM-UY, another piece of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in fertilizer and pesticides. Finally, smallholders who received benefits from all four components of PMGKY were more likely to invest in purchasing seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides. Findings suggest the fungibility of public cash transfers from the recent PMGKY scheme is significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing future investments in modern inputs.

Socioeconomic disparity and the risk of contracting COVID-19 in South Korea: an NHIS-COVID-19 database cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between socioeconomic status and the risk of contracting coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains controversial. We aimed to investigate whether socioeconomic status affected the risk of contracting COVID-19 in the South Korean population.

METHODS

The NHIS-COVID-19 database cohort was used in this population-based study. We collected the data of COVID-19 patients who were diagnosed between January 1, 2020 and June 4, 2020 and those of the control population. The income levels of all individuals as of February 2020 were extracted, and study participants were classified into four groups based on quartiles: Q1 (the lowest) to Q4 (the highest). Data were statistically analyzed using multivariable logistic regression modeling.

RESULTS

In total, 122,040 individuals-7669 and 114,371 individuals in the COVID-19 and control groups, respectively-were included in the final analysis. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that the Q1 group had a 1.19-fold higher risk of contracting COVID-19 than the Q4 group, whereas the Q2 and Q3 groups showed no significant differences. In the 20-39 years age group, compared with the Q4 group, the Q3 and Q2 groups showed 11 and 22% lower risks of contracting COVID-19, respectively. In the ≥60 years age group, compared with the Q4 group, the Q1, Q2, and Q3 groups showed a 1.39-, 1.29-, and 1.14-fold higher risks of COVID-19, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower socioeconomic status was associated with a higher risk of contracting COVID-19 in South Korea. This association was more evident in the older population (age ≥ 60 years), whereas both lower and higher socioeconomic statuses were associated with higher risks of contracting COVID-19 in the young adult population (in the 20-39 year age group). Strategies for the prevention of COVID-19 should focus on individuals of lower socioeconomic status and on young adults of higher and lower socioeconomic status.

Inequities as a social determinant of health: Responsibility in paying attention to the poor and vulnerable at risk of COVID-19

Significance for public health The social nature of COVID-19 disease requires that all social capacities, including prevention and socio-economic policies, be used to prevent and control it as much as possible in order to reimburse and compensate the lost income of the affected strata in the form of financial and livelihood assistance.

The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment

The COVID-19 pandemic has created both a medical crisis and an economic crisis. As others have noted, we face challenges just as big as those in the Spanish Flu Pandemic and the Great Depression—all at once. The tasks facing policy-makers are extraordinary. Many new kinds of intervention are urgently required. This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has two objectives. The first is to explore these new interventions: evaluating their use, suggesting how they might be improved, and proposing alternatives. The second is to show that the challenges facing us are global and will require international cooperation if they are to be dealt with effectively. This short introductory essay positions the papers in the issue within an overall conceptual framework, with the aim of telling an overarching story about the pandemic.