Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections

The timing of leaf senescence in deciduous trees influences carbon uptake and the resources available for tree growth, defense, and reproduction. Therefore, simulated biosphere-atmosphere interactions and, eventually, estimates of the biospheric climate change mitigation potential are affected by the accuracy of process-oriented leaf senescence models. However, current leaf senescence models are likely to suffer from a bias towards the mean (BTM). This may lead to overly flat trends, whereby errors would increase with increasing difference from the average timing of leaf senescence, ultimately distorting model performance and projected future shifts. However, such effects of the BTM on model performance and future shifts have rarely been investigated. We analyzed >17 × 106 past dates and >49 × 106 future shifts of leaf senescence simulated by 21 process-oriented models that had been calibrated with >45,000 observations from Central Europe for three major European tree species. The surmised effects on model performance and future shifts occurred in all 21 models, revealing strong model-specific BTM. In general, the models performed only slightly better than a null model that just simulates the average timing of leaf senescence. While standard comparisons of model performance favored models with stronger BTM, future shifts of leaf senescence were smaller when projected by models with weaker BTM. Overall, the future shifts for 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999 increased by an average of 13-14 days after correcting for the BTM. In conclusion, the BTM substantially affects simulations by state-of-the-art leaf senescence models, which compromises model comparisons and distorts projections of future shifts. Smaller shifts result from flatter trends associated with stronger BTM. Therefore, smaller shifts according to models with weaker BTM illustrate the considerable uncertainty in current leaf senescence projections. It is likely that state-of-the-art projections of future biosphere behavior under global change are distorted by erroneous leaf senescence models.

Spatiotemporal variation of cold requirements for leaf coloration and its environmental cues over the northern deciduous broadleaved forests

Evaluating the interactions between cold requirements for leaf coloration and environmental cues is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of leaf senescence and accurately predicting autumn phenology. Based on remote sensing-derived and ground-observed leaf coloration dates for deciduous broadleaf forests during 1981-2014, we determined location-specific cold requirements for autumn leaf coloration and assessed their spatiotemporal changes. Then, we revealed the major environmental cues of cold requirements and their spatial differentiation. Results show that cold requirements have nonsignificant trends during the past decades at 57.9% of pixels. The interannual variation of cold requirements was mainly influenced by growing-season accumulated temperature (GDDgs) at 35.8% of pixels and accumulated growing season index (AGSI) at 23.2% of pixels, but less affected by leaf unfolding and low precipitation index (LPI). The increase in GDDgs or AGSI may decrease cold requirements, and vice versa. The spatial differentiations of the effects of GDDgs and AGSI depend highly on local summer temperature among climatic classifications with similar humidity conditions. Specifically, the effects of GDDgs on cold requirements concentrated in humid regions with warmer summers, while that of AGSI mainly occurred in humid and winter dry regions with cooler summers. Higher summer temperatures would strengthen the effects of GDDgs and reduce the effects of AGSI on cold requirements. These findings deepen the understanding of the influences of environmental factors on leaf senescence progress and suggest that the shifts of factors affecting cold requirements under global warming may enlarge the uncertainty in predicting autumn leaf coloration dates.

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with "high confidence" and delaying autumn phenology with "medium confidence" under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.

Increasingly amplified stimulation mediated by TaNAC69-B is crucial for the leaf senescence in wheat

Leaf senescence involves massive multidimensional alterations, such as nutrient redistribution, and is closely related to crop yield and quality. No apical meristem, Arabidopsis transcription activation factor, and Cup-shaped cotyledon (NAC)-type transcription factors integrate various signals and modulate an enormous number of target genes to ensure the appropriate progression of leaf senescence. However, few leaf senescence-related NACs have been functionally characterized in wheat. Based on our previous RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) data, we focused on a NAC family member, TaNAC69-B, which is increasingly expressed during leaf senescence in wheat. Overexpression of TaNAC69-B led to precocious leaf senescence in wheat and Arabidopsis, and affected several agricultural traits in transgenic wheat. Moreover, impaired expression of TaNAC69-B by virus-induced gene silencing retarded the leaf senescence in wheat. By RNA-seq and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis, we confirmed that some abscisic acid (ABA) biosynthesis genes, including AAO3 and its ortholog in wheat, TraesCS2B02G270600 (TaAO3-B), were elevated by the overexpression of TaNAC69-B. Consistently, we observed more severe ABA-induced leaf senescence in TaNAC69-B-OE wheat and Arabidopsis plants. Furthermore, we determined that TaNAC69-B bound to the NAC binding site core (CGT) on the promoter regions of AAO3 and TaAO3-B. Moreover, we confirmed elevated ABA levels in TaNAC69-B-OE wheat lines. Although TaNAC69-B shares 39.83% identity (amino acid) with AtNAP, TaNAC69-B did not completely restore the delayed leaf senescence in the atnap mutant. Collectively, our results revealed a positive feedback loop, consisting of TaNAC69-B, ABA biosynthesis and leaf senescence, that is essential for the regulation of leaf senescence in wheat.

Acclimation of phenology relieves leaf longevity constraints in deciduous forests

Leaf phenology is key for regulating total growing-season mass and energy fluxes. Long-term temporal trends towards earlier leaf unfolding are observed across Northern Hemisphere forests. Phenological dates also vary between years, whereby end-of-season (EOS) dates correlate positively with start-of-season (SOS) dates and negatively with growing-season total net CO₂ assimilation (A_net). These associations have been interpreted as the effect of a constrained leaf longevity or of premature carbon (C) sink saturation-with far-reaching consequences for long-term phenology projections under climate change and rising CO₂. Here, we use multidecadal ground and remote-sensing observations to show that the relationships between A_net and EOS are opposite at the interannual and the decadal time scales. A decadal trend towards later EOS persists in parallel with a trend towards increasing A_net-in spite of the negative A_net-EOS relationship at the interannual scale. This finding is robust against the use of diverse observations and models. Results indicate that acclimation of phenology has enabled plants to transcend a constrained leaf longevity or premature C sink saturation over the course of several decades, leading to a more effective use of available light and a sustained extension of the vegetation CO₂ uptake season over time.

Warming delays but grazing advances leaf senescence of five plant species in an alpine meadow

Leaf senescence is the final stage in the life cycle of leaves and is critical to plants' fitness as well as to ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. To date, most understanding about the responses of leaf senescence to environmental changes has derived from research in forests, but the topic has been relatively neglected, especially under grazing conditions, in natural grasslands. We conducted a 3-year manipulative asymmetric warming with moderate grazing experiment to explore the responses of leaf senescence of five main species in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming prolonged leaf longevity through earlier leaf-out and later leaf senescence, and grazing prolonged it through a greater advance in leaf-out than first leaf coloration for all plants. Warming did not affect leaf nitrogen (N) content or N resorption efficiency (NRE), but grazing increased N content in coloring leaves for P. anserine and P. nivea and decreased NRE for K. humilis, P. anserine under no-warming, and for P. nivea under warming. The interactive effects of warming and grazing on leaf phenology and leaf traits depended on species identity and year. There were positive relationships between leaf-out and leaf senescence mainly derived from grazing, and positive relationships between NRE from old leaves and leaf senescence for three out of five plant species. Therefore, our results indicated that earlier leaf-out could result in earlier leaf senescence only under grazing, but depending on plant species. Delayed leaf coloring increased NRE from old leaves for some plant species measured under warming and grazing. Our results suggested that alpine plants may develop strategies to adapt to warming and grazing to assimilate more carbon through prolonged leaf longevity rather than increased NRE through earlier leaf coloring in the alpine meadow.

Monitoring nature's calendar from space: Emerging topics in land surface phenology and associated opportunities for science applications

Vegetation phenology has been viewed as the nature's calendar and an integrative indicator of plant-climate interactions. The correct representation of vegetation phenology is important for models to accurately simulate the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. Remote sensing has advanced the monitoring of vegetation phenology by providing spatially and temporally continuous data that together with conventional ground observations offers a unique contribution to our knowledge about the environmental impact on ecosystems as well as the ecological adaptations and feedback to global climate change. Land surface phenology (LSP) is defined as the use of satellites to monitor seasonal dynamics in vegetated land surfaces and to estimate phenological transition dates. LSP, as an interdisciplinary subject among remote sensing, ecology, and biometeorology, has undergone rapid development over the past few decades. Recent advances in sensor technologies, as well as data fusion techniques, have enabled novel phenology retrieval algorithms that refine phenology details at even higher spatiotemporal resolutions, providing new insights into ecosystem dynamics. As such, here we summarize the recent advances in LSP and the associated opportunities for science applications. We focus on the remaining challenges, promising techniques, and emerging topics that together we believe will truly form the very frontier of the global LSP research field.

Continued spring phenological advance under global warming hiatus over the Pan-Third Pole

The global surface temperature has witnessed a warming hiatus in the first decade of this century, but how this slowing down of warming will impact spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole remains unclear. Here, we combined multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices with eddy covariance datasets to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in spring phenological changes over the Pan-Third Pole. We found that the spring phenology over Pan-Third Pole continues to advance at the rate of 4.8 days decade^-1 during the warming hiatus period, which is contrasted to a non-significant change over the northern hemisphere. Such a significant and continued advance in spring phenology was mainly attributed to an increase in preseason minimum temperature and water availability. Moreover, there is an overall increasing importance of precipitation on changes in spring phenology during the last four decades. We further demonstrated that this increasingly negative correlation was also found across more than two-thirds of the dryland region, tentatively suggesting that spring phenological changes might shift from temperature to precipitation-controlled over the Pan-Third Pole in a warmer world.

Delayed autumnal leaf senescence following nutrient fertilization results in altered nitrogen resorption

Increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition could create an imbalance between N and phosphorus (P), which may substantially impact ecosystem functioning. Changes in autumnal phenology (i.e., leaf senescence) and associated leaf nutrient resorption may profoundly impact plant fitness and productivity. However, we know little about how and to what extent nutrient addition affects leaf senescence in tree species, or how changes in senescence may influence resorption. We thus investigated the impacts of N and P addition on leaf senescence and leaf N resorption in 2-year-old larch (Larix principisrupprechtii) seedlings in northern China. Results showed that nutrient addition (i.e., N, P or N + P addition) significantly delayed autumnal leaf senescence, and decreased leaf N resorption efficiency (NRE) and proficiency (NRP), particularly in the N and N + P treatments. Improved leaf N concentrations were correlated with delayed leaf senescence, as indicated by the positive relationship between mature leaf N concentrations and the timing of leaf senescence. Following nutrient addition, larch seedlings shifted toward delayed onset, but more rapid, leaf senescence. Additionally, we observed an initial negative correlation between the timing of leaf senescence and NRE and NRP, followed by a positive correlation, indicating delayed and less efficient remobilization during the early stages of senescence, followed by accelerated resorption in the later stages. However, the latter effect was potentially impaired by the increased risk of early autumn frost damage, thus failed to fully compensate for the negative effects observed during the early stages of senescence. Improved soil P availability increased leaf N resorption and thus weakened the negative impact of delayed leaf senescence on leaf N resorption, so P addition had no significant impact on leaf N resorption. Overall, our findings clarify the relationship between nutrient addition-resorption and the linkage with leaf senescence, and would have important implications for plant nutrient conservation strategy and nutrient cycling.

Accurate phenology analyses require bud traits and energy budgets

Spring phenology is mainly driven by temperature in extratropical ecosystems. Recent evidence highlighted the key role of micrometeorology and bud temperature on delaying or advancing leaf unfolding. Yet, phenology studies, either using ground-based or remote sensing observations, always substitute plant tissue temperature by air temperature. In fact, temperatures differ substantially between plant tissues and the air because plants absorb and lose energy. Here, we build on recent observations and well-established energy balance theories to discuss how solar radiation, wind and bud traits might affect our interpretation of spring phenology sensitivity to warming. We show that air temperature might be an imprecise and biased predictor of bud temperature. Better characterizing the plants' phenological response to warming will require new observations of bud traits and temperature for accurately quantifying their energy budget. As consistent micrometeorology datasets are still scarce, new approaches coupling energy budget modelling and plant traits could help to improve phenology analyses across scales.

Contrasting Effects of Nitrogen Addition on Vegetative Phenology in Dry and Wet Years in a Temperate Steppe on the Mongolian Plateau

Changes in spring and autumn phenology and thus growing season length (GSL) pose great challenges in accurately predicting terrestrial primary productivity. However, how spring and autumn phenology in response to land-use change and nitrogen deposition and underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This study was conducted to explore the GSL and its components [i.e., the beginning of growing season and ending of growing season (EGS)] in response to mowing and nitrogen addition in a temperate steppe on the Mongolia Plateau during 2 years with hydrologically contrasting condition [dry (2014) vs. wet (2015)]. Our results demonstrated that mowing advanced the BGS only by 3.83 days, while nitrogen addition advanced and delayed the BGS and EGS by 2.85 and 3.31 days, respectively, and thus prolonged the GSL by 6.16 days across the two growing seasons from 2014 to 2015. When analyzed by each year, nitrogen addition lengthened the GSL in the dry year (2014), whereas it shortened the GSL in the wet year (2015). Further analyses revealed that the contrasting impacts of nitrogen on the GSL were attributed to monthly precipitation regimes and plant growth rate indicated by the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDV_max). Moreover, changes in the GSL and its two components had divergent impacts on community productivity. The findings highlight the critical role of precipitation regimes in regulating the responses of spring and autumn phenology to nutrient enrichment and suggest that the relationships of ecosystem productivity with spring and autumn phenology largely depend on interannual precipitation fluctuations under future increased nitrogen deposition scenarios.

Spring and autumn phenology in an understory herb are uncorrelated and driven by different factors

PREMISE

Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life-history events, temperature, and plant-resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals.

METHODS

We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf-out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long-lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology.

RESULTS

The timing of leaf-out and senescence were consistent within individuals among years. Leaf-out and senescence were not correlated with each other within years. Larger plants leafed out and senesced later, and size had no effect on growing season length. Reproductive plants leafed out earlier and had longer growing seasons than nonreproductive plants. Grazing had no detectable effects on phenology. Colder spring temperatures delayed senescence in two of three study years.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of seasonal events, such as leaf-out and senescence in plants can be expressed largely independently within and among seasons and are influenced by different factors. Growing season start and length can often be dependent on plant condition and reproductive status. Knowledge about the drivers of growing season length of individuals is essential to more accurately predict species and community responses to environmental variation.

Impact of microclimatic conditions and resource availability on spring and autumn phenology of temperate tree seedlings

Microclimatic effects (light, temperature) are often neglected in phenological studies and little information is known about the impact of resource availability (nutrient and water) on tree's phenological cycles. Here we experimentally studied spring and autumn phenology in four temperate trees in response to changes in bud albedo (white-painted vs black-painted buds), light conditions (nonshaded vs c. 70% shaded), water availability (irrigated, control and reduced precipitation) and nutrients (low vs high availability). We found that higher bud albedo or shade delayed budburst (up to +12 d), indicating that temperature is sensed locally within each bud. Leaf senescence was delayed by high nutrient availability (up to +7 d) and shade conditions (up to +39 d) in all species, except oak. Autumn phenological responses to summer droughts depended on species, with a delay for cherry (+7 d) and an advance for beech (-7 d). The strong phenological effects of bud albedo and light exposure reveal an important role of microclimatic variation on phenology. In addition to the temperature and photoperiod effects, our results suggest a tight interplay between source and sink processes in regulating the end of the seasonal vegetation cycle, which can be largely influenced by resource availability (light, water and nutrients).

Increased growing-season productivity drives earlier autumn leaf senescence in temperate trees

Changes in the growing-season lengths of temperate trees greatly affect biotic interactions and global carbon balance. Yet future growing-season trajectories remain highly uncertain because the environmental drivers of autumn leaf senescence are poorly understood. Using experiments and long-term observations, we show that increases in spring and summer productivity due to elevated carbon dioxide, temperature, or light levels drive earlier senescence. Accounting for this effect improved the accuracy of senescence predictions by 27 to 42% and reversed future predictions from a previously expected 2- to 3-week delay over the rest of the century to an advance of 3 to 6 days. These findings demonstrate the critical role of sink limitation in governing the end of seasonal activity and reveal important constraints on future growing-season lengths and carbon uptake of trees.