Transmission fitness of drug-resistant HIV revealed in a surveillance system transmission network

HIV-1 pretreatment and acquired antiretroviral drug resistance before tenofovir/ /lamivudine /dolutegravir (TLD) roll-out in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that HIV treatment scale-up is accompanied by a robust assessment of drug resistance emergence and transmission. The WHO HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) monitoring and surveillance strategy includes HIVDR testing in adults both initiating and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Due to limited information about HIVDR in Mozambique, we conducted two nationally representative surveys of adults initiating and receiving first-line ART regimes to better inform the HIV program.

METHODS

We carried out a cross-sectional study between March 2017 and December 2019. Adults (older than 15 years) living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating ART or receiving first-line ART for between 9-15 months at 25 health facilities across all eleven provinces in Mozambique were included. Genotypic HIVDR was assessed on dried blood spots (DBS) when viral loads were  ≥ 1000 copies/ml. Genotypic resistance for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was determined using the Stanford HIV database algorithm 9.5 and calibrated population resistance tool 8.1.

RESULTS

Of 828 participants -enrolled, viral load (VL) testing was performed on 408 initiators and 409 ART experienced. Unsuppressed VL was found in 68.1% 419 initiators and 18.8% (77/409) of the ART experienced. Of the 278 initiators and 70 ART experienced who underwent sequencing, 51.7% (144/278) and 75.7% (53/70) were sequenced successfully. Among the new initiators, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) for NNRTI and PI was found in 16.0% (23/144) and 1.4% (2/144) of the participants, respectively. Acquired drug resistance (ADR) was found in 56.5% (30/53) of the ART-experienced participants of whom 24.5% (13/53) were resistant to both NRTI and NNRTI.

CONCLUSION

High rates of PDR and ADR for NNRTI and ADR for NRTI were observed in our study. These findings support the replacement of NNRTIs with dolutegravir (DTG) but high levels of NRTI resistance in highly treatment-experienced individuals still require attention when transitioning to new regimens. Moreover, the study underlines the need for routine VL testing and HIVDR surveillance to improve treatment management strategies.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in newly diagnosed individuals in Italy over the period 2015-21

BACKGROUND

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is still a critical aspect for the management of individuals living with HIV-1. Thus, its evaluation is crucial to optimize HIV care.

METHODS

Overall, 2386 HIV-1 protease/reverse transcriptase and 1831 integrase sequences from drug-naïve individuals diagnosed in north and central Italy between 2015 and 2021 were analysed. TDR was evaluated over time. Phylogeny was generated by maximum likelihood. Factors associated with TDR were evaluated by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Individuals were mainly male (79.1%) and Italian (56.2%), with a median (IQR) age of 38 (30-48). Non-B infected individuals accounted for 44.6% (N = 1065) of the overall population and increased over time (2015-2021, from 42.1% to 51.0%, P = 0.002). TDR prevalence to any class was 8.0% (B subtype 9.5% versus non-B subtypes 6.1%, P = 0.002) and remained almost constant over time. Overall, 300 transmission clusters (TCs) involving 1155 (48.4%) individuals were identified, with a similar proportion in B and non-infected individuals (49.7% versus 46.8%, P = 0.148). A similar prevalence of TDR among individuals in TCs and those out of TCs was found (8.2% versus 7.8%, P = 0.707).By multivariable analysis, subtypes A, F, and CFR02_AG were negatively associated with TDR. No other factors, including being part of TCs, were significantly associated with TDR.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2015 and 2021, TDR prevalence in Italy was 8% and remained almost stable over time. Resistant strains were found circulating regardless of being in TCs, but less likely in non-B subtypes. These results highlight the importance of a continuous surveillance of newly diagnosed individuals for evidence of TDR to inform clinical practice.

The origin and spread of HIV-1 CRF59_01B epidemic in China: A molecular network and phylogeographic analysis

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 CRF59_01B, identified in China in 2013, has been detected nationwide, exhibiting notably high prevalence in Guangzhou and its vicinity. This study aimed to unravel its origin and migration. A data set was established, incorporating all available CRF59_01B pol gene sequences and their metadata from Guangzhou and the public database. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis demonstrated that CRF59_01B originated in Shenzhen, the neighboring city of Guangzhou, around 1998 with posterior probability of 0.937. Molecular network analysis detected 1131 transmission links and showed a remarkably high clustering rate (78.9%). Substantial inter-city transmissions (26.5%, 300/1131) were observed between Shenzhen and Guangzhou while inter-region transmissions linked Guangzhou with South (46) and Southwest (64) China. The centre of Guangzhou was the hub of CRF59_01B transmission, including the inflow from Shenzhen (3.57 events/year) and outflow to the outskirts of Guangzhou (>2 events/year). The large-scale analysis revealed significant migration from Shenzhen to Guangzhou (5.08 events/year) and North China (0.59 events/year), and spread from Guangzhou to Central (0.47 events/year), East (0.42 events/year), South (0.76 events/year), Southwest China (0.76 events/year) and Shenzhen (1.89 events/year). Shenzhen and Guangzhou served as the origin and the hub of CRF59_01B circulation, emphasizing inter-city cooperation and data sharing to confine its nationwide diffusion.

Impact of pretreatment low-abundance HIV-1 drug resistance on virological failure after 1 year of antiretroviral therapy in China

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of pretreatment low-abundance HIV drug-resistant variants (LA-DRVs) on virological outcomes among ART-naive HIV-1-infected Chinese people who initiated ART.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was conducted among HIV-1-infected individuals who had pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) genotypic results. Cases were defined as individuals with virological failure (HIV-1 RNA viral load ≥1000 copies/mL) after 1 year of ART, and controls were individuals from the same cohort whose viral load was less than 1000 copies/mL. Next-generation sequencing was used to identify low-abundance PDR mutations at detection thresholds of 10%, 2% and 1%. The mutant load was calculated by multiplying the abundance of HIV-1 drug-resistant variants by the pretreatment viral load. The impact of pretreatment low-abundance mutations on virological failure was estimated in logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Participants (43 cases and 100 controls) were included in this study for the analysis. The proportion of participants with PDR was higher in cases than in controls at different detection thresholds (44.2% versus 22.0%, P = 0.007 at 10% threshold; 58.1% versus 31.0%, P = 0.002 at 2% threshold; 90.7% versus 69.0%, P = 0.006 at 1% threshold). Compared with participants without PDR, participants with ≥10% detectable PDR mutations were associated with an increased risk of virological failure (adjusted OR 8.0, 95% CI 2.4-26.3, P = 0.001). Besides this, individuals with pretreatment LA-DRVs (2%-9% abundance range) had 5-fold higher odds of virological failure (adjusted OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.3-19.6, P = 0.021). Furthermore, LA-DRVs at 2%-9% abundance resistant to NRTIs and mutants with abundance of ≥10% resistant to NNRTIs had a 4-fold and 8-fold risk of experiencing virological failure, respectively. It was also found that a mutant load of more than 1000 copies/mL was predictive of virological failure (adjusted OR 7.2, 95% CI 2.5-21.1, P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-abundance PDR mutations ranging from 2% to 9% of abundance can increase the risk of virological failure. Further studies are warranted to define a clinically relevant threshold of LA-DRVs and the role of NRTI LA-DRVs.

Genetic Diversity and Characteristics of Drug Resistance Among Treatment-Naive People Living with HIV in Xi'an, China

Purpose

The genetic diversity and genetic predisposition for drug resistance mutations are the primary features of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), which could cause the incidence of failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study investigates the distribution of various HIV-1 genotypes and the incidence of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) in the antiretroviral-naive HIV-1 infected participants in Xi'an, China.

Patients and Methods

In this study, a cross-sectional analysis was carried out at the Xi'an Eighth Hospital between January 2020 and December 2021 among newly-diagnosed ART-naive HIV-1 infected participants. A nested PCR technique was used for amplifying the target segment of 1.3 kb present in the pol gene that spanned the reverse transcriptase and the protease regions. HIV-1 genotypes and the PDR-associated mutations were identified using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database.

Results

A total of 317 pol gene sequences were retrieved, amplified, and sequenced. The circulating recombinant form (CRF), CRF07_BC (51.7%) was seen to be the most prevalent HIV-1 genotype, followed by other genotypes like CRF01_AE (25.9%), B (14.2%), and CRF55_01B (4.7%). PDR was found in 18.3% of the population. The PDR mutation frequency in the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (16.1%) was significantly higher compared to that of the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) (4.4%) and the protease inhibitor (0.9%). V179D/E (both were 4.4%) was seen to be the most predominant type of NNRTI mutation. K65R and M184V (1.3%) were the most frequent NRTI-associated mutations. About half (48.3%) of the sequenced HIV-1 strains that had mutations could show a potential low-level NNRTI resistance owing to V179D/E. Multivariate regression analysis revealed one PDR mutation associated with subtype CRF01_AE (p=0.002) and CRF55_01B (p<0.001) as a higher risk mutation.

Conclusion

Diverse and complex HIV-1 genotypes are distributed in Xi'an, China. Considering new evidence, it is necessary to screen for baseline HIV-1 drug resistance among the newly-diagnosed HIV-1 individuals.

Transmitted HIV Drug Resistance in Bulgaria Occurs in Clusters of Individuals from Different Transmission Groups and Various Subtypes (2012-2020)

Transmitted HIV drug resistance in Bulgaria was first reported in 2015 using data from 1988-2011. We determined the prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria during 2012-2020 using polymerase sequences from 1053 of 2010 (52.4%) antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals. Sequences were analyzed for DRM using the WHO HIV SDRM list implemented in the calculated population resistance tool at Stanford University. Genetic diversity was inferred using automated subtyping tools and phylogenetics. Cluster detection and characterization was performed using MicrobeTrace. The overall rate of SDRMs was 5.7% (60/1053), with 2.2% having resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 1.8% to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 2.1% to protease inhibitors (PIs), and 0.4% with dual-class SDRMs. We found high HIV-1 diversity, with the majority being subtype B (60.4%), followed by F1 (6.9%), CRF02_AG (5.2%), A1 (3.7%), CRF12_BF (0.8%), and other subtypes and recombinant forms (23%). Most (34/60, 56.7%) of the SDRMs were present in transmission clusters of different subtypes composed mostly of male-to-male sexual contact (MMSC), including a 14-member cluster of subtype B sequences from 12 MMSC and two males reporting heterosexual contact; 13 had the L90M PI mutation and one had the T215S NRTI SDRM. We found a low SDRM prevalence amid high HIV-1 diversity among ART-naive patients in Bulgaria during 2012-2020. The majority of SDRMs were found in transmission clusters containing MMSC, indicative of onward spread of SDRM in drug-naive individuals. Our study provides valuable information on the transmission dynamics of HIV drug resistance in the context of high genetic diversity in Bulgaria, for the development of enhanced prevention strategies to end the epidemic.

Plant Lectins: A Review on their Biotechnological Potential Toward Human Pathogens

The indiscriminate use of antibiotics is associated with the appearance of bacterial resistance. In light of this, plant-based products treating infections are considered potential alternatives. Lectins are a group of proteins widely distributed in nature, capable of reversibly binding carbohydrates. Lectins can bind to the surface of pathogens and cause damage to their structure, thus preventing host infection. The antimicrobial activity of plant lectins results from their interaction with carbohydrates present in the bacterial cell wall and fungal membrane. The data about lectins as modulating agents of antibiotic activity, potentiates the effect of antibiotics without triggering microbial resistance. In addition, lectins play an essential role in the defense against fungi, reducing their infectivity and pathogenicity. Little is known about the antiviral activity of plant lectins. However, their effectiveness against retroviruses and parainfluenza is reported in the literature. Some authors still consider mannose/ glucose/N-Acetylglucosamine binding lectins as potent antiviral agents against coronavirus, suggesting that these lectins may have inhibitory activity against SARS-CoV-2. Thus, it was found that plant lectins are an alternative for producing new antimicrobial drugs, but further studies still need to decipher some mechanisms of action.

Molecular Epidemiology and Trends in HIV-1 Transmitted Drug Resistance in Mozambique 1999–2018

HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) can become a public health concern, especially in low- and middle-income countries where genotypic testing for people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not available. For first-line regimens to remain effective, levels of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) need to be monitored over time. To determine the temporal trends of TDR in Mozambique, a search for studies in PubMed and sequences in GenBank was performed. Only studies covering the pol region that described HIVDR and genetic diversity from treatment naïve patients were included. A dataset from seven published studies and one novel unpublished study conducted between 1999 and 2018 were included. The Calibrated Population Resistance tool (CPR) and REGA HIV-1 Subtyping Tool version 3 for sequences pooled by sampling year were used to determine resistance mutations and subtypes, respectively. The prevalence of HIVDR amongst treatment-naïve individuals increased over time, reaching 14.4% in 2018. The increase was most prominent for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), reaching 12.7% in 2018. Subtype C was predominant in all regions, but a higher genetic variability (19% non-subtype C) was observed in the north region of Mozambique. These findings confirm a higher diversity of HIV in the north of the country and an increased prevalence of NNRTI resistance among treatment naïve individuals over time.

Epidemic Characteristics of HIV Drug Resistance in Hefei, Anhui Province

To study the characteristics of HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR) in Hefei, a cross-sectional survey was used to collect 816 samples from newly reported HIV infections from 2017 to 2020 and 127 samples from HIV infections with virological failure from 2018 to 2019 in Hefei. HIV drug resistance levels and drug resistance mutations were interpreted using the Stanford Drug Resistance Database. Molecular networks were constructed by HIV-TRACE. Among the newly reported infections in Hefei, the prevalence of PDR was 6.4% (52/816). The drug resistance mutations were mainly V179E/D/T (12.4%), K103N (1.3%), and V106I/M (1.3%). In addition, it was found that the CRF55_01B subtype had a higher drug resistance rate than other subtypes (p < 0.05). Molecular network analysis found that K103N and V179E may be transmitted in the cluster of the CRF55_01B subtype. The prevalence of ADR among HIV infections with virological failure was 38.6% (49/127), and the drug resistance mutations were mainly M184V (24.4%), K103N/S (15.7%), Y181C (11.0%), G190S/A/E (10.2%), and V106M/I (10.2%). The molecular network was constructed by combining HIV infections with virological failure and newly reported infections; M184V and Y181C may be transmitted between them. The chi-square trend test results indicated that the higher the viral load level, the greater the number of newly reported infections linked to the infections with virological failure in the molecular network. In conclusion, interventions should focus on infections of the CRF55_01B subtype to reduce the transmission of drug-resistant strains. However, improving the treatment effect of HIV infections is beneficial for reducing the second-generation transmission of HIV.

High Level of HIV Drug Resistance and Virologic Nonsuppression Among Female Sex Workers in Ethiopia: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine viral load (VL) nonsuppression (VLN) rates, HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) prevalence, and associated factors among female sex workers (FSWs) in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional biobehavioral survey was conducted among FSWs in 11 cities in Ethiopia in 2014. Whole blood was collected, and HIVDR genotyping was performed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with VLN and HIVDR.

RESULTS

Among 4900 participants, 1172 (23.9%) were HIV-positive and 1154 (98.5%) had a VL result. Participants were categorized into antiretroviral therapy (ART) (n = 239) and ART-naive (n = 915) groups based on self-report. From the 521 specimens (ART, 59; ART-naive, 462) with VL ≥1000 copies/mL, genotyping was successful for 420 (80.6%) and 92 (21.9%) had drug resistance mutations (DRMs). Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) was detected in 16.5% (63/381) of the ART-naive participants. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), non-NRTIs (NNRTIs), and dual-class DRMs were detected in 40 (10.5%), 55 (14.4%), and 35 (9.2%) of the participants, respectively. Among 239 participants on ART, 59 (24.7%) had VLN. Genotyping was successfully performed for 39 (66.1%). DRMs were detected in 29 (74.4%). All 29 had NNRTI, 23 (79.3%) had NRTI or dual-class DRMs. VLN was associated with age 35 years or older, CD4+ T-cell count <350 cells/mm3, and being forced into selling sex. PDR and acquired drug resistance were associated with CD4+ T-cell count <350 cells/mm3 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The high VLN and HIVDR rates among FSWs underscore the need for targeted interventions to improve ART access and virologic monitoring to maximize the benefit of ART and limit the spread of HIV and HIVDR.

Pre-treatment and acquired antiretroviral drug resistance among people living with HIV in Tianjin, China

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the prevalence and patterns of pre-treatment and acquired HIV drug resistance mutations among people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 12 (±3) months in Tianjin, China.

METHODS

From Jan 2018 to Dec 2020, PLWH with HIV-1 RNA greater than 1000 copies/mL visiting the ART clinic in the Tianjin Second People's Hospital were enrolled. Viral RNA isolated from blood samples were taken for genotypic resistance testing using an in-house method. Major drug resistance mutations were analyzed for reverse transcriptase and protease Sanger sequences using the Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database. Multivariable Poisson regressions were used to evaluate the factors associated with drug resistance mutations.

RESULTS

HIV drug resistance testing was successfully performed on 584 ART-naive and 71 ART-experienced participants. Pre-treatment drug resistance mutation prevalence was 13.5% (79/584) to any antiretroviral drug, 12.5% (73/584) to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 1.5% (9/584) to nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and 0.3% (2/584) to protease inhibitors (PIs). Acquired drug resistance to any antiretroviral drug among PLWH on ART with viral load >1000 copies/mL was 88.7% (63/71). The prevalence of mutation for NNRTIs, NRTIs, and PIs were 93.7% (59/63), 82.5% (52/63), and 3.2% (2/63), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-treatment and acquired drug resistance mutations were highly prevalent among PLWH in Tianjin; therefore, routine baseline genotypic resistance testing and adequate intervals of viral load surveillance are urgently needed for the long-term treatment success. Our findings provide important evidence for first- and second-line regimen drugs for PLWH, especially in China.

Drug Resistance Mutations in a Population Before Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in Northern South Africa

South Africa introduced the "diagnose and treat" universal HIV treatment program in September 2016. This program enables all identified HIV-positive patients to immediately start first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the presence of drug-resistant (DR) viruses in the drug-naive population complicates the choice of ART. We used next-generation sequencing (NGS) to determine the prevalence and diversity of HIV DR mutations in patients entering HIV treatment programs in northern South Africa. RNA was isolated from plasma of drug-naive HIV-1-infected patients. Using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, the HIV-1-pol gene comprising the complete protease (PR) and the first 900 bp of reverse transcriptase (RT) was amplified and sequenced on an Illumina MiniSeq platform. Consensus sequences were derived at >20% threshold and at >5% threshold using Geneious PRIME^® software version 2020.1.2. HIV-1 surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRM) were inferred using Calibrated Population Resistance tool in HIV Drug Resistance Database. Viral subtypes were determined using REGA and RIP genotyping tools. The HIV PR/RT region was successfully sequenced from 241 patients. From these, 23 (9.5%) had at least one SDRM detected at >20% threshold, with a prevalence of 9.5% (n = 18), 3% (n = 7), and 0.4% (n = 1) for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI), and protease inhibitors (PI), respectively. The number of patients with SDRM increased to 31 (12.9%) when minority variants were accounted for at >5% threshold. The most frequent SDRMs based on drug class were; K103N (7.9%-NNRTI), K65R (2.5%-NRTI), and D30N (0.8%-PI). Four cases of dual NRTI/NNRTI mutations were identified. All consensus sequences were subtype C, except three, which were C/A1, C/F1, and C/G recombinants. NGS analysis confirms that individuals entering HIV treatment programs in northern South Africa, habor moderate levels of SDRM, including cases of dual-class drug resistance. Further SDRM studies may be required to better understand resistance in the drug-naive population in the era of "diagnose and treat" in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Evolutionary characteristics and immune mutation of hepatitis C virus genotype 1b among intravenous drug users in mainland, China

China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) worldwide, especially subtype 1b. To better control hepatitis C, insights into the characteristics of dynamic spread and genomic mutations are urgently needed. We retrieved sequences of HCV-1b NS5B among intravenous drug users (IDUs) and general people (Non-IDUs) in China from 2000 to 2011 in NCBI. Bayesian phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were used to evaluate the transmission dynamics of HCV-1b. Non-synonymous substitutions were detected to illustrate immune adaptation. Evolutionary history demonstrated that HCV-1b effective population size experienced a sharp increase in 1990. HCV-1b sequences among IDUs had a higher estimated evolutionary rate (5.7185 × 10^-3  substitutions/site/year) than overall (7.7332 × 10^-4 ). 105/136 (77.2%) of HCV-1b sequences clustered into 38 networks. The average non-synonymous HCV-1b immune epitopes among IDUs were 0.211, higher than non-IDUs, especially in the HLA-A*02 molecular recognition region. All of these posed significant challenges for the prevention and treatment of HCV. Heterogeneity and genetic linkages of HCV-1b suggest that evolutionary surveillance of HCV in cities in east-central China and among IDUs could not be neglected.

A Combination of Amino Acid Mutations Leads to Resistance to Multiple Nucleoside Analogs in Reverse Transcriptases from HIV-1 Subtypes B and C

Resistance to anti-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) drugs has been a problem from the beginning of antiviral drug treatments. The recent expansion of combination antiretroviral therapy worldwide has led to an increase in resistance to antiretrovirals; understanding the mechanisms of resistance is increasingly important. In this study, we analyzed reverse transcriptase (RT) variants based on sequences derived from an individual who had a low-level rebound viremia while undergoing therapy with abacavir, azidothymidine (AZT or Zidovudine), and (-)-L-2',3'-dideoxy-3'-thiacytidine (Lamivudine or 3TC). The RT had mutations at positions 64, 67, 70, 184, 219, and a threonine insertion after amino acid 69 in RT. The virus remained partially susceptible to the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) regimen. We show how these mutations affect the ability of NRTIs to inhibit DNA synthesis by RT. The presence of the inserted threonine reduced the susceptibility of the RT mutant to inhibition by Tenofovir.

Drug resistance mutations in HIV: new bioinformatics approaches and challenges

Drug resistance mutations appear in HIV under treatment pressure. Resistant variants can be transmitted to treatment-naive individuals, which can lead to rapid virological failure and can limit treatment options. Consequently, quantifying the prevalence, emergence and transmission of drug resistance is critical to effectively treating patients and to shape health policies. We review recent bioinformatics developments and in particular describe: (1) the machine learning approaches intended to predict and explain the level of resistance of HIV variants from their sequence data; (2) the phylogenetic methods used to survey the emergence and dynamics of resistant HIV transmission clusters; (3) the impact of deep sequencing in studying within-host and between-host genetic diversity of HIV variants, notably regarding minority resistant variants.

Using Molecular Transmission Networks to Reveal the Epidemic of Pretreatment HIV-1 Drug Resistance in Guangxi, China

Introduction

Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) is becoming an obstacle to the success of ART. This study investigated the prevalence of PDR and the transmission clusters (TCs) of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in two cities where drug abuse used to be high to describe the local HIV-1 transmission dynamics.

Methods

Plasma samples were obtained from 1,027 ART-naïve patients in Guangxi. Viral subtypes and DRMs were identified. Transmission network and related factors were also determined.

Results

A total of 1,025 eligible sequences were obtained from Qinzhou (65.8%) and Baise (34.2%) cities. The predominant HIV-1 genotype was CRF08_BC (45.0%), followed by CRF01_AE (40.9%). The overall prevalence of PDR was 8.3%, and resistance to NNRTI was the most common. Putative links with at least one other sequence were found in 543/1,025 (53.0%) sequences, forming 111 clusters (2–143 individuals). The most prevalent shared DRMs included V106I (45.35%), V179D (15.1%), and V179E (15.1%). Clusters related to shared DRMs were more frequent and larger in CRF08_BC. The prevalence of shared DRMs increased with time, while the proportion of PDR gradually decreased. Age > 50 years was associated with clustering. Subtype CRF08_BC was more likely to have DRMs, PDR propagation, and DRM sharing.

Conclusion

PDR prevalence is moderate in this region. The association between PDR and subtype CRF08_BC suggested that DRMs spreading from injection drug users (IDUs) to heterosexuals (HETs) might be the major source of PDR in this region. Our findings highlight the significance of continuous surveillance of PDR.

Transmitted Drug Resistance Among HIV-1 Diagnoses in the United States, 2014-2018

BACKGROUND

Transmitted HIV drug resistance can threaten the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Drug resistance testing is recommended at entry to HIV care in the United States and provides valuable insight for clinical decision-making and population-level monitoring.

METHODS

We assessed transmitted drug resistance-associated mutation (TDRM) prevalence and predicted susceptibility to common HIV drugs among U.S. persons with HIV diagnosed during 2014-2018 who had a drug resistance test performed ≤3 months after HIV diagnosis and reported to the National HIV Surveillance System and who resided in 28 jurisdictions where ≥20% of HIV diagnoses had an eligible sequence during this period.

RESULTS

Of 50,747 persons in the analysis, 9,616 (18.9%) had ≥1 TDRM. TDRM prevalence was 0.8% for integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI), 4.2% for protease inhibitors, 6.9% for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 12.0% for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Most individual mutations had a prevalence <1.0% including M184V (0.9%) and K65R (0.1%); K103N was most prevalent (8.6%). TDRM prevalence did not increase or decrease significantly during 2014-2018 overall, for individual drug classes, or for key individual mutations except for M184V (12.9% increase per year, 95% CI=5.6-20.6).

CONCLUSIONS

TDRM prevalence overall and for individual drug classes remained stable during 2014-2018; transmitted INSTI resistance was uncommon. Continued population-level monitoring of INSTI and NRTI mutations, especially M184V and K65R, is warranted amidst expanding use of second-generation INSTI and PrEP.

The Estimation of Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutation Strains Probability in the Treatment of HIV Using the Beta-Binomial Model

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a viral infection that destroys the human immune system resulting in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The Zambia HIV prevalence rate (11.3%) remains among the highest in the sub-Saharan Africa. In the treatment of HIV-naive patients, a problem that relates to the transmitted drug resistance mutation strains (TDRMs) occurs in the administration of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. To address this problem, we propose the use of transition probabilities when prescribing a switch from the first-line to the second-line or to the third-line regimen on the ARV drugs combination. We formulate a statistical technique to determine an optimal ARV drugs combination. To compute a transition probability matrix chart on ARV drugs combinations of the first-line and second-line regimens, we apply a beta-binomial hierarchical model on HIV data. The transition probability matrices corresponding to the ARV drugs combinations TDF+ETC+NVP, TDF+FTC+EFV, AZT+3TC+NVP, AZT+3TC+EFV, D4T+3TC+NVP, and D4T+3TC+EFV provide an upper triangular matrix of probabilities. We observe a higher probability of remaining in the same regimen state than moving to another state. A transition probability chart provides information on the most effective combination to prescribe to a patient in the presence of transmitted drug resistance mutation (TDRM) test results. The transmission probabilities play a major role in aiding the physicians make an informed decision to prescribe an optimal ARV drugs combination. We suggest a TDRM test to be carried out to all newly diagnosed HIV individuals before prescribing any of the ARV drugs combination.

Transmitted drug resistance among HIV-1 drug-naïve patients in Greece

OBJECTIVES

Despite the success of antiretroviral treatment (ART), the persisting transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV genetic heterogeneity affect the efficacy of treatment. This study explored the prevalence of TDR among ART-naïve HIV patients in Greece during the period 2016-2019.

METHODS

Genotypic resistance testing was available for 438 ART-naïve HIV patients. Multivariable Poisson regression models were fitted.

RESULTS

The majority of patients were male, and there was a slight predominance of Hellenic (26.5%) over non-Hellenic (21.9%) nationality. The prevalence of TDR was 7.8%. There was a predominance of mutations for non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (5.7%) over nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (0.2%). No mutations to protease inhibitors were detected. The prevalence of resistance was 22.1% based on all mutations identified through the HIVdb interpretation system. The most frequent resistance sites were E138A (9.6%), K103N (6.4%), and K101E (2.1%). The majority of detected mutations were confined to subtype A (52.6%), followed by B (19.6%). Non-Hellenic nationality was significantly associated with an increased risk of TDR (relative risk 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.69).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-B HIV infections predominate in Greece, with an increasing trend in recent years. The prevalence of TDR remains stable. Ongoing surveillance of resistance testing is needed to secure the long-term success of ART.

No evidence for increased transmissibility from recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2

COVID-19 is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which jumped into the human population in late 2019 from a currently uncharacterised animal reservoir. Due to this recent association with humans, SARS-CoV-2 may not yet be fully adapted to its human host. This has led to speculations that SARS-CoV-2 may be evolving towards higher transmissibility. The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. At this stage we find no evidence for significantly more transmissible lineages of SARS-CoV-2 due to recurrent mutations.

Whole-genome epidemiology links phage-mediated acquisition of a virulence gene to the clonal expansion of a pandemic Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium clone

Epidemic and pandemic clones of bacterial pathogens with distinct characteristics continually emerge, replacing those previously dominant through mechanisms that remain poorly characterized. Here, whole-genome-sequencing-powered epidemiology linked horizontal transfer of a virulence gene, sopE, to the emergence and clonal expansion of a new epidemic Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) clone. The sopE gene is sporadically distributed within the genus Salmonella and rare in S. enterica Typhimurium lineages, but was acquired multiple times during clonal expansion of the currently dominant pandemic monophasic S. Typhimurium sequence type (ST) 34 clone. Ancestral state reconstruction and time-scaled phylogenetic analysis indicated that sopE was not present in the common ancestor of the epidemic clade, but later acquisition resulted in increased clonal expansion of sopE-containing clones that was temporally associated with emergence of the epidemic, consistent with increased fitness. The sopE gene was mainly associated with a temperate bacteriophage mTmV, but recombination with other bacteriophage and apparent horizontal gene transfer of the sopE gene cassette resulted in distribution among at least four mobile genetic elements within the monophasic S. enterica Typhimurium ST34 epidemic clade. The mTmV prophage lysogenic transfer to other S. enterica serovars in vitro was limited, but included the common pig-associated S. enterica Derby (S. Derby). This may explain mTmV in S. Derby co-circulating on farms with monophasic S. Typhimurium ST34, highlighting the potential for further transfer of the sopE virulence gene in nature. We conclude that whole-genome epidemiology pinpoints potential drivers of evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics during pathogen emergence, and identifies targets for subsequent research in epidemiology and bacterial pathogenesis.

Transmitted, pre-treatment and acquired antiretroviral drug resistance among men who have sex with men and transgender women living with HIV in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Across sub-Saharan Africa, men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) have disproportionately poor HIV treatment outcomes. Stigma and criminalization create barriers to health-care engagement and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), potentially promoting the development of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR). We evaluated transmitted, pre-treatment and acquired HIVDR among MSM and TGW in Lagos and Abuja, Nigeria.

METHODS

Adults with HIV RNA ≥1,000 copies/ml in the TRUST/RV368 cohort, including incident cases diagnosed via 3-monthly screening, underwent HIVDR testing using the Sanger sequencing method. Major mutations conferring resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs) were identified from the 2017 IAS-USA list. World Health Organization surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) were identified in ART-naive participants.

RESULTS

From March 2013 to June 2017, 415 participants with median age 24 (interquartile range [IQR] 21-27) years, CD4⁺ T-cell count 370 (IQR 272-502) cells/mm³, and HIV RNA 4.73 (IQR 4.26-5.15) log₁₀ copies/ml underwent HIVDR testing. SDRMs were observed in 36 of 373 ART-naive participants (9.7%, 95% confidence interval [95% CI 6.8, 13.1%]), including 8 of 39 incident cases (20.5%, [95% CI] 9.3, 36.5%). Among 42 ART-experienced participants, NNRTI resistance was detected in 18 (42.9%, 95% CI 27.7, 59.0%) and NRTI resistance in 10 (23.8%, 95% CI 12.0, 39.4%). No PI resistance was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of transmitted and acquired drug resistance among Nigerian MSM and TGW living with HIV suggests the need for programmatic solutions to improve uninterrupted access to ART and timely switch to second-line regimens in cases of viral failure.

High nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance levels in HIV-1-infected Zambian mother-infant pairs

OBJECTIVE(S)

To elucidate relationships in antiretroviral resistance between HIV-1-infected mother-infant pairs by defining the resistance profiles in the mothers and infants and quantifying drug resistance prevalence in the pairs post-Option B+ implementation.

DESIGN

Collection of dried blood spots from mother-infant pairs during routine HIV-1 screens in Lusaka, Zambia from 2015 to 2018.

METHODS

DNA was extracted from the dried blood spots, the HIV-1 pol region was amplified, and the purified proviral DNA was sequenced using Sanger sequencing. Drug resistance mutations (DRM) were identified in sequenced DNA using the Stanford HIVdb (https://hivdb.stanford.edu/).

RESULTS

DRM were detected in 45% (44/97) of samples, and these samples were found to harbor resistance to at least two antiretrovirals. The prevalence of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance was significantly higher than that of other antiretroviral classes. DRM were detected disproportionately in infants (67%; 33/49) compared with mothers (23%; 11/48), but the magnitude of resistance did not differ when resistance was detected. The disparity in drug resistance profiles was reinforced in pairwise comparison of resistance profiles in mother-infant pairs.

CONCLUSION

While Option B+ is effective in reducing mother-to-child transmission, in cases where this regimen fails, high-level nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance is frequently detected in infants. This underscores the importance of pretreatment drug resistance screening in both mothers and infants and emphasizes the necessary change to protease inhibitor-based and integrase inhibitor-based regimens for treatment of HIV-1-infected infants and mothers.

Determining the Origins of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Drug-resistant Minority Variants in People Who Are Recently Infected Using Phylogenetic Reconstruction

BACKGROUND

Drug-resistant minority variants (DRMinVs) detected in patients who recently acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be transmitted, generated de novo through virus replication, or technical errors. The first form is likely to persist and result in treatment failure, while the latter two could be stochastic and transient.

METHODS

Ultradeep sequencing of plasma samples from 835 individuals with recent HIV-1 infection in the United Kingdom was performed to detect DRMinVs at a mutation frequency between 2% and 20%. Sequence alignments including >110 000 HIV-1 partial pol consensus sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK-HDRD), linked to epidemiological and clinical data from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System, were used for transmission cluster analysis. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker with a clade support of >90% and maximum genetic distances of 4.5% or 1.5%, the latter to limit detection to likely direct transmission events.

RESULTS

Drug-resistant majority variants (DRMajVs) were detected in 66 (7.9%) and DRMinVs in 84 (10.1%) of the recently infected individuals. High levels of clustering to sequences in UK-HDRD were observed for both DRMajV (n = 48; 72.7%) and DRMinV (n = 63; 75.0%) sequences. Of these, 43 (65.2%) with DRMajVs were in a transmission cluster with sequences that harbored the same DR mutation compared to only 3 (3.6%) sequences with DRMinVs (P < .00001, Fisher exact test). Evidence of likely direct transmission of DRMajVs was observed for 25/66 (37.9%), whereas none were observed for the DRMinVs (P < .00001).

CONCLUSIONS

Using a densely sampled HIV-infected population, we show no evidence of DRMinV transmission among recently infected individuals.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance surveillance: shifting trends in study design and prevalence estimates

INTRODUCTION

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence increased during the initial years of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) global scale-up. Few studies have examined recent trends in TDR prevalence using published genetic sequences and described the characteristics of ART-naïve persons from whom these published sequences have been obtained.

METHODS

We identified 125 studies published between 2014 and 2019 for which HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) with or without protease from ≥50 ART-naïve adult persons were submitted to the GenBank sequence database. The population characteristics and TDR prevalence were compared to those in 122 studies published in the preceding five years between 2009 and 2013. TDR prevalence was analysed using median study-level and person-level data.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2019 studies reported sequence data from 32,866 and 41,724 ART-naïve persons respectively. Studies from the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) regions in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia and Latin America/Caribbean accounted for approximately two-thirds of the studies during each period. Between the two periods, the proportion of studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from South/Southeast Asia countries other than China decreased from 43% to 32% and the proportion of studies performed at sentinel sites for recent HIV-1 infection decreased from 33% to 22%. Between 2014 and 2019, median study-level TDR prevalence was 4.1% in South/Southeast Asia, 6.0% in sub-Saharan Africa, 9.1% in Latin America/Caribbean, 8.5% in Europe and 14.2% in North America. In the person-level analysis, there was an increase in overall, NNRTI and two-class NRTI/NNRTI resistance in sub-Saharan Africa; an increase in NNRTI resistance in Latin America/Caribbean, and an increase in overall, NNRTI and PI resistance in North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, NNRTI and dual NRTI/NNRTI-associated TDR prevalence was significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa studies published between 2014 and 2019 compared with those published between 2009 and 2013. The decreasing proportion of studies from the hardest hit LMIC regions and the shift away from sentinel sites for recent infection suggests that global TDR surveillance efforts and publication of findings require renewed emphasis.

Pretreatment and Acquired Antiretroviral Drug Resistance Among Persons Living With HIV in Four African Countries

BACKGROUND

Emerging HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) could jeopardize the success of standardized HIV management protocols in resource-limited settings. We characterized HIVDR among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and experienced participants in the African Cohort Study (AFRICOS).

METHODS

From January 2013 to April 2019, adults with HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/mL underwent ART history review and HIVDR testing upon enrollment at 12 clinics in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Nigeria. We calculated resistance scores for specific drugs and tallied major mutations to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) using Stanford HIVDB 8.8 and SmartGene IDNS software. For ART-naive participants, World Health Organization surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) were noted.

RESULTS

HIVDR testing was performed on 972 participants with median age 35.7 (interquartile range [IQR] 29.7-42.7) years and median CD4 295 (IQR 148-478) cells/mm3. Among 801 ART-naive participants, the prevalence of SDRMs was 11.0%, NNRTI mutations 8.2%, NRTI mutations 4.7%, and PI mutations 0.4%. Among 171 viremic ART-experienced participants, NNRTI mutation prevalence was 83.6%, NRTI 67.8%, and PI 1.8%. There were 90 ART-experienced participants with resistance to both efavirenz and lamivudine, 33 (36.7%) of whom were still prescribed these drugs. There were 10 with resistance to both tenofovir and lamivudine, 8 (80.0%) of whom were prescribed these drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants on failing ART regimens had a high burden of HIVDR that potentially limited the efficacy of standardized first- and second-line regimens. Management strategies that emphasize adherence counseling while delaying ART switch may promote drug resistance and should be reconsidered.

Incident infection in high-priority HIV molecular transmission clusters in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To identify correlates of incident HIV infection in rapidly growing HIV molecular clusters.

DESIGN

Phylogenetic analysis of HIV public health surveillance data.

METHODS

High-priority HIV genetic transmission clusters with evidence of rapid growth in 2012 (i.e. clusters with a pairwise genetic distance ≤0.005 substitutions/site and at least three cases diagnosed in 2012) were identified using HIV-TRACE. Then, we investigated cluster growth, defined as HIV cases diagnosed in the following 5 years that were genetically linked to these clusters. For clusters that grew during the follow-up period, Bayesian molecular clock phylogenetic inference was performed to identify clusters with evidence of incident HIV infection (as opposed to diagnosis of previously infected cases) during this follow-up period.

RESULTS

Of the 116 rapidly growing clusters identified, 73 (63%) had phylogenetic evidence for an incident HIV case during the 5-year follow-up period. Correlates of an incident HIV case arising in clusters included a greater number of diagnosed but virally unsuppressed cases in 2012, a greater number of inferred undiagnosed cases in the cluster in 2012, and a younger time of most recent common ancestor for the cluster.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that incident infections in rapidly growing clusters originate equally from diagnosed but unsuppressed cases and undiagnosed infections. These results highlight the importance of promoting retention in care and viral suppression as well as partner notification and other case-finding activities when investigating and intervening on high-priority molecular transmission clusters.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype B is the predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of these infections, including its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach by combining and analyzing 663 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1988-2018 and associated epidemiologic data to better understand this sub-epidemic in Bulgaria. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d) we found several large phylogenetic clusters composed mostly of men who have sex with men (MSM) and male heterosexuals (HET). However, at d = 0.5%, used to identify more recent transmission, the largest clusters dissociated to become smaller in size. The majority of female HET and persons with other transmission risks were singletons or pairs in the network. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian pol sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that subtype B was likely introduced into Bulgaria from multiple countries, including Israel and several European countries. Our findings indicate that subtype B was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988 and then infections rapidly spread among MSM and non-disclosed MSM. These high-risk behaviors continue to spread subtype B infection in Bulgaria as evidenced by the large clusters at d = 0.5%. Relatively low levels of antiretroviral drug resistance were observed in our study. Prevention strategies should continue to include increased testing and linkage to care and treatment, as well as expanded outreach to the MSM communities.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance spread within transmission clusters in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) to NNRTIs has consistently increased in Mexico City during the last decade.

OBJECTIVES

To infer the HIV genetic transmission network in Mexico City to describe the dynamics of the local HIV epidemic and spread of HIVDR.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

HIV pol sequences were obtained by next-generation sequencing from 2447 individuals before initiation of ART at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City (April 2016 to June 2018). Pretreatment HIVDR was estimated using the Stanford algorithm at a Sanger-like threshold (≥20%). Genetic networks were inferred with HIV-TRACE, establishing putative transmission links with genetic distances <1.5%. We examined demographic associations among linked individuals with shared drug resistance mutations (DRMs) using a ≥ 2% threshold to include low-frequency variants.

RESULTS

Pretreatment HIVDR reached 14.8% (95% CI 13.4%-16.2%) in the cohort overall and 9.6% (8.5%-10.8%) to NNRTIs. Putative links with at least one other sequence were found for 963/2447 (39%) sequences, forming 326 clusters (2-20 individuals). The inferred network was assortative by age and municipality (P < 0.001). Clustering individuals were younger [adjusted OR (aOR) per year = 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97, P < 0.001] and less likely to include women (aOR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.75, P = 0.002). Among clustering individuals, 175/963 (18%) shared DRMs (involving 66 clusters), of which 66/175 (38%) shared K103N/S (24 clusters). Eight municipalities (out of 75) harboured 65% of persons sharing DRMs. Among all persons sharing DRMs, those sharing K103N were younger (aOR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.98, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses suggest age- and geographically associated transmission of DRMs within the HIV genetic network in Mexico City, warranting continuous monitoring and focused interventions.

Natural selection favoring more transmissible HIV detected in United States molecular transmission network

HIV molecular epidemiology can identify clusters of individuals with elevated rates of HIV transmission. These variable transmission rates are primarily driven by host risk behavior; however, the effect of viral traits on variable transmission rates is poorly understood. Viral load, the concentration of HIV in blood, is a heritable viral trait that influences HIV infectiousness and disease progression. Here, we reconstruct HIV genetic transmission clusters using data from the United States National HIV Surveillance System and report that viruses in clusters, inferred to be frequently transmitted, have higher viral loads at diagnosis. Further, viral load is higher in people in larger clusters and with increased network connectivity, suggesting that HIV in the United States is experiencing natural selection to be more infectious and virulent. We also observe a concurrent increase in viral load at diagnosis over the last decade. This evolutionary trajectory may be slowed by prevention strategies prioritized toward rapidly growing transmission clusters.

Analysis of HIV-1 diversity, primary drug resistance and transmission networks in Croatia

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in treatment-naive HIV-1 infected persons from Croatia was investigated. We included 403 persons, representing 92.4% of all HIV-positive individuals entering clinical care in Croatia in 2014–2017. Overall prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was estimated at 16.4%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTI (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 11.4%, 6.7% and 2.5% of persons, respectively. Triple-class resistance was determined in 2.2% of individuals. In addition, a single case (1.0%) of resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (InSTIs) was found. Deep sequencing was performed on 48 randomly selected samples and detected additional TDR mutations in 6 cases. Phylogenetic inference showed that 347/403 sequences (86.1%) were part of transmission clusters and identified forward transmission of resistance in Croatia, even that of triple-class resistance. The largest TDR cluster of 53 persons with T215S was estimated to originate in the year 1992. Our data show a continuing need for pre-treatment HIV resistance testing in Croatia. Even though a low prevalence of resistance to InSTI was observed, surveillance of TDR to InSTI should be continued.

Identifying Clusters of Recent and Rapid HIV Transmission Through Analysis of Molecular Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Detecting recent and rapid spread of HIV can help prioritize prevention and early treatment for those at highest risk of transmission. HIV genetic sequence data can identify transmission clusters, but previous approaches have not distinguished clusters of recent, rapid transmission. We assessed an analytic approach to identify such clusters in the United States.

METHODS

We analyzed 156,553 partial HIV-1 polymerase sequences reported to the National HIV Surveillance System and inferred transmission clusters using 2 genetic distance thresholds (0.5% and 1.5%) and 2 periods for diagnoses (all years and 2013-2015, ie, recent diagnoses). For rapidly growing clusters (with ≥5 diagnoses during 2015), molecular clock phylogenetic analysis estimated the time to most recent common ancestor for all divergence events within the cluster. Cluster transmission rates were estimated using these phylogenies.

RESULTS

A distance threshold of 1.5% identified 103 rapidly growing clusters using all diagnoses and 73 using recent diagnoses; at 0.5%, 15 clusters were identified using all diagnoses and 13 using recent diagnoses. Molecular clock analysis estimated that the 13 clusters identified at 0.5% using recent diagnoses had been diversifying for a median of 4.7 years, compared with 6.5-13.2 years using other approaches. The 13 clusters at 0.5% had a transmission rate of 33/100 person-years, compared with previous national estimates of 4/100 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach identified clusters with transmission rates 8 times those of previous national estimates. This method can identify groups involved in rapid transmission and help programs effectively direct and prioritize limited public health resources.

Transmitted drug resistance mutations and trends of HIV-1 subtypes in treatment-naïve patients: A single-centre experience

OBJECTIVES

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV-1 genetic diversity may affect treatment efficacy and clinical outcomes. Here we describe the circulating viral subtypes and estimate the prevalence of drug resistance among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients attending Sapienza University Hospital (Rome, Italy) from 2006-2017.

METHODS

Genotypic resistance testing (GRT) was performed on 668 ART-naïve patients for integrase (n = 52), protease and reverse transcriptase (n = 668) sequences.

RESULTS

Twenty-one different HIV-1 subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) were identified. Subtype B was the most common (67.1%), followed by CRF02_AG (8.4%), and subtypes C and F (both 6.0%). A significantly increase in the proportion of non-B strains (P < 0.001) and the rate of non-Italian patients was observed over time. The overall prevalence of TDR was 9.4% (NRTI, 4.2%; NNRTI, 5.8%; and PI, 1.0%) and was higher in subtype B strains. Transmitted INSTI mutations (Q148H and G140S) responsible for high-level resistance to raltegravir and elvitegravir and intermediate resistance to dolutegravir and bictegravir were found, for the first time, in two individuals. Minor or accessory INSTI mutations were detected in 17.3% of patients. No significant decrease in the prevalence of TDR was documented over time.

CONCLUSION

The significant increase in non-B subtypes suggests that the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 is changing. Detection of a major INSTI mutation in two ART-naïve patients highlights the importance of performing GRT before commencing treatment. This finding and the lack of a significant reduction in TDRs underline the importance of continuous surveillance of resistance mutations.

HIV-TRACE (TRAnsmission Cluster Engine): a Tool for Large Scale Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 and Other Rapidly Evolving Pathogens

In modern applications of molecular epidemiology, genetic sequence data are routinely used to identify clusters of transmission in rapidly evolving pathogens, most notably HIV-1. Traditional 'shoe-leather' epidemiology infers transmission clusters by tracing chains of partners sharing epidemiological connections (e.g., sexual contact). Here, we present a computational tool for identifying a molecular transmission analog of such clusters: HIV-TRACE (TRAnsmission Cluster Engine). HIV-TRACE implements an approach inspired by traditional epidemiology, by identifying chains of partners whose viral genetic relatedness imply direct or indirect epidemiological connections. Molecular transmission clusters are constructed using codon-aware pairwise alignment to a reference sequence followed by pairwise genetic distance estimation among all sequences. This approach is computationally tractable and is capable of identifying HIV-1 transmission clusters in large surveillance databases comprising tens or hundreds of thousands of sequences in near real time, that is, on the order of minutes to hours. HIV-TRACE is available at www.hivtrace.org and from www.github.com/veg/hivtrace, along with the accompanying result visualization module from www.github.com/veg/hivtrace-viz. Importantly, the approach underlying HIV-TRACE is not limited to the study of HIV-1 and can be applied to study outbreaks and epidemics of other rapidly evolving pathogens.

Comparative analysis of HIV sequences in real time for public health

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this study is to summarize recent advances in public health applications of comparative methods for HIV-1 sequence analysis in real time, including genetic clustering methods.

RECENT FINDINGS

Over the past 2 years, several groups have reported the deployment of established genetic clustering methods to guide public health decisions for HIV prevention in 'near real time'. However, it remains unresolved how well the readouts of comparative methods like clusters translate to events that are actionable for public health. A small number of recent studies have begun to elucidate the linkage between clusters and HIV-1 incidence, whereas others continue to refine and develop new comparative methods for such applications.

SUMMARY

Although the use of established methods to cluster HIV-1 sequence databases has become a widespread activity, there remains a critical gap between clusters and public health value.

Phylogenies in ART: HIV reservoirs, HIV latency and drug resistance

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly reduced the morbidity and mortality resulting from HIV infection. ART is, however, unable to eradicate HIV, which persists latently in several cell types and tissues. Phylogenetic analyses suggested that the proliferation of cells infected before ART initiation is mainly responsible for residual viremia, although controversy still exists. Conversely, it is widely accepted that drug resistance mutations (DRMs) do not appear during ART in patients with suppressed viral loads. Studies based on sequence clustering have in fact indicated that, at least in developed countries, HIV-infected ART-naive patients are the major source of drug-resistant viruses. Analysis of longitudinally sampled sequences have also shown that DRMs have variable fitness costs, which are strongly influenced by the viral genetic background.

HIV-1 drug resistance before initiation or re-initiation of first-line ART in eight regions of Mexico: a sub-nationally representative survey

BACKGROUND

HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) to NNRTIs in persons initiating ART is increasing in Mexico.

OBJECTIVES

To compare HIV PDR in eight sub-regions of Mexico.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A large PDR survey was implemented in Mexico (September 2017-March 2018) across eight sub-regions. All larger clinics (which provide ART to 90% of all initiators) were included, allocating sample size using the probability-proportional-to-size method. Both antiretroviral-naive and prior antiretroviral-exposed persons were included. HIV PDR levels were estimated from pol Sanger sequences obtained at a WHO-designated laboratory.

RESULTS

A total of 2006 participants were enrolled from 74 clinics. PDR to NNRTIs was higher than to other drug classes (P < 0.0001), crossing the 10% threshold in the North-East, East, South-West and South-East. NNRTI PDR was higher in the South-West (P = 0.02), coinciding with the highest proportion of restarters in this sub-region (14%). We observed higher PDR prevalence to any drug in women compared with men (16.5% versus 12.2%, P = 0.04). After multivariable adjustment, higher NNRTI PDR remained significantly associated with previous antiretroviral exposure in the Centre-North, North-West, South-West and South-East [adjusted OR (aOR): 21, 5, 8 and 25, respectively; P < 0.05]. Genetic network analyses showed high assortativity by sub-region (P < 0.0001), with evidence of drug resistance mutation transmission within local clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Diversification of the public health response to HIV drug resistance based on sub-regional characteristics could be considered in Mexico. Higher NNRTI PDR levels were associated with poorer regions, suggesting opportunities to strengthen local HIV programmes. Price and licensing negotiations of drug regimens containing integrase inhibitors are warranted.

Trends in Pretreatment HIV-1 Drug Resistance in Antiretroviral Therapy-naive Adults in South Africa, 2000-2016: A Pooled Sequence Analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa has the largest public antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. We assessed temporal trends in pretreatment HIV-1 drug resistance (PDR) in ART-naïve adults from South Africa.

METHODS

We included datasets from studies conducted between 2000 and 2016, with HIV-1 pol sequences from more than ten ART-naïve adults. We analysed sequences for the presence of 101 drug resistance mutations. We pooled sequences by sampling year and performed a sequence-level analysis using a generalized linear mixed model, including the dataset as a random effect.

FINDINGS

We identified 38 datasets, and retrieved 6880 HIV-1 pol sequences for analysis. The pooled annual prevalence of PDR remained below 5% until 2009, then increased to a peak of 11·9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 9·2-15·0) in 2015. The pooled annual prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) PDR remained below 5% until 2011, then increased to 10.0% (95% CI 8.4-11.8) by 2014. Between 2000 and 2016, there was a 1.18-fold (95% CI 1.13-1.23) annual increase in NNRTI PDR (p < 0.001), and a 1.10-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.16) annual increase in nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor PDR (p = 0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Increasing PDR in South Africa presents a threat to the efforts to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic. These findings support the recent decision to modify the standard first-line ART regimen, but also highlights the need for broader public health action to prevent the further emergence and transmission of drug-resistant HIV.

SOURCE OF FUNDING

This research project was funded by the South African Medical Research Council (MRC) with funds from National Treasury under its Economic Competitiveness and Support Package.

DISCLAIMER

The contents of this publication are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of CDC.

Maintenance and reappearance of extremely divergent intra-host HIV-1 variants

Understanding genetic variation in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is clinically and immunologically important for patient treatment and vaccine development. We investigated the longitudinal intra-host genetic variation of HIV in over 3,000 individuals in the US National HIV Surveillance System with at least four reported HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences. In this population, we identified 149 putative instances of superinfection (i.e. an individual sequentially infected with genetically divergent, polyphyletic viruses). Unexpectedly, we discovered a group of 240 individuals with consecutively sampled viral strains that were >0.015 substitutions/site divergent, despite remaining monophyletic in the phylogeny. Viruses in some of these individuals had a maximum genetic divergence approaching that found between two random, unrelated HIV-1 subtype-B pol sequences within the US population. Individuals with these highly divergent viruses tended to be diagnosed nearly a decade earlier in the epidemic than people with superinfection or virus with less intra-host genetic variation, and they had distinct transmission risk factor profiles. To better understand this genetic variation in cases with extremely divergent, monophyletic viruses, we performed molecular clock phylogenetic analysis. Our findings suggest that, like Hepatitis C virus, extremely divergent HIV lineages can be maintained within an individual and reemerge over a period of years.

Growth of HIV-1 Molecular Transmission Clusters in New York City

Background

HIV-1 genetic sequences can be used to infer viral transmission history and dynamics. Throughout the United States, HIV-1 sequences from drug resistance testing are reported to local public health departments.

Methods

We investigated whether inferred HIV transmission network dynamics can identify individuals and clusters of individuals most likely to give rise to future HIV cases in a surveillance setting. We used HIV-TRACE, a genetic distance-based clustering tool, to infer molecular transmission clusters from HIV-1 pro/RT sequences from 65736 people in the New York City surveillance registry. Logistic and LASSO regression analyses were used to identify correlates of clustering and cluster growth, respectively. We performed retrospective transmission network analyses to evaluate individual- and cluster-level prioritization schemes for identifying parts of the network most likely to give rise to new cases in the subsequent year.

Results

Individual-level prioritization schemes predicted network growth better than random targeting. Across the 3600 inferred molecular transmission clusters, previous growth dynamics were superior predictors of future transmission cluster growth compared to individual-level prediction schemes. Cluster-level prioritization schemes considering previous cluster growth relative to cluster size further improved network growth predictions.

Conclusions

Prevention efforts based on HIV molecular epidemiology may improve public health outcomes in a US surveillance setting.

Characterisation of HIV-1 transmission clusters and drug-resistant mutations in Denmark, 2004 to 2016

This study describes the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance mutations among 1,815 patients in Denmark from 2004 to 2016 and characterises transmission clusters. POL sequences were analysed for subtype, drug resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationship. The prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRM) was 6.7%, while the prevalence of drug resistance mutations (DRM) with a clinical impact was 12.3%. We identified 197 transmission clusters with 706 patients. Patients 40 years or older were less likely to be members of a transmission cluster and patients in transmission clusters were less likely to be infected abroad. The proportion of late presenters (LP) was lower in active compared with inactive clusters. Large active clusters consisted of more men who have sex with men (MSM), had members more frequently infected in Denmark and contained a significantly lower proportion of LP and significantly fewer patients with DRM than small active clusters. Subtyping demonstrated that the Danish HIV epidemic is gradually becoming more composed of non-B subtypes/circulating recombinant forms. This study shows that active HIV-1 transmission has become increasingly MSM-dominated and that the recent increase in SDRM and DRM prevalence is not associated with more sustained transmission within identified transmission networks or clusters.

HIV-genetic diversity and drug resistance transmission clusters in Gondar, Northern Ethiopia, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia has been shown to be dominated by two phylogenetically distinct subtype C clades, the Ethiopian (C'-ET) and East African (C-EA) clades, however, little is known about the temporal dynamics of the HIV epidemic with respect to subtypes and distinct clades. Moreover, there is only limited information concerning transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) in the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among young antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve individuals recently diagnosed with HIV infection, in Gondar, Ethiopia, 2011-2013 using the WHO recommended threshold survey. A total of 84 study participants with a median age of 22 years were enrolled. HIV-1 genotyping was performed and investigated for drug resistance in 67 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on all available HIV sequences obtained from Gondar (n = 301) which were used to define subtype C clades, temporal trends and local transmission clusters. Dating of transmission clusters was performed using BEAST.

RESULT

Four of 67 individuals (6.0%) carried a HIV drug resistance mutation strain, all associated with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). Strains of the C-EA clade were most prevalent as we found no evidence of temporal changes during this time period. However, strains of the C-SA clade, prevalent in Southern Africa, have been introduced in Ethiopia, and became more abundant during the study period. The oldest Gondar transmission clusters dated back to 1980 (C-EA), 1983 (C-SA) and 1990 (C'-ET) indicating the presence of strains of different subtype C clades at about the same time point in Gondar. Moreover, some of the larger clusters dated back to the 1980s but transmissions within clusters have been ongoing up till end of the study period. Besides being associated with more sequences and larger clusters, the C-EA clade sequences were also associated with clustering of HIVDR sequences. One cluster was associated with the G190A mutation and showed onward transmissions at high rate.

CONCLUSION

TDR was detected in 6.0% of the sequenced samples and confirmed pervious reports that the two subtype C clades, C-EA and C'-ET, are common in Ethiopia. Moreover, the findings indicated an increased diversity in the epidemic as well as differences in transmission clusters sizes of the different clades and association with resistance mutations. These findings provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

A Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Model to Predict Effective HIV Prophylaxis Dosing Strategies for People Who Inject Drugs

The goal of this work was to evaluate dosing strategies for tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), and emtricitabine (FTC) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with injection drug use with a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics analysis of concentration data generated from two single-dose clinical studies conducted in healthy women. Population pharmacokinetic models were developed using measured intracellular metabolite, endogenous nucleotide competitors, and extracellular parent drug concentrations. Intracellular metabolite concentrations were normalized to endogenous competitors and compared with an EC₉₀ target for PrEP efficacy. Monte Carlo simulations were used to select effective dose strategies of single agents (TAF, TDF, and FTC) and combinations (TDF + FTC and TAF + FTC). Daily, intermittent, and event-driven dosing regimens at varying dosage amounts were explored. When combined, TDF + FTC and TAF + FTC both provided quick (0.5 hours) and durable (up to 84 and 108 hours, respectively) protection of ≥99% after a single dose. When dosed twice per week, protection remained at 100%. Single-agent regimens provided lower estimates of protection than either combination tested. Here, the application of pharmacokinetic modeling to in vitro target concentrations demonstrates the added utility of including FTC in a successful PrEP regimen. While no TAF-based PrEP data are currently available for comparison, this analysis suggests TAF + FTC could completely protect against percutaneous exposure with as little as two doses per week.

Prevalence and Transmission Dynamics of HIV-1 Transmitted Drug Resistance in a Southeastern Cohort

Background

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) compromises clinical management and outcomes. Transmitted drug resistance surveillance and identification of growing transmission clusters are needed in the Southeast, the epicenter of the US HIV epidemic. Our study investigated prevalence and transmission dynamics in North Carolina.

Methods

We analyzed surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) using partial pol sequences from patients presenting to 2 large HIV outpatient clinics from 1997 to 2014. Transmitted drug resistance prevalence was defined as ≥1 SDRMs among antiretroviral therapy (ART)–naïve patients. Binomial regression was used to characterize prevalence by calendar year, drug class, and demographic and clinical factors. We assessed the transmission networks of patients with TDR with maximum likelihood trees and Bayesian methods including background pol sequences (n = 15 246).

Results

Among 1658 patients with pretherapy resistance testing, ≥1 SDRMs was identified in 199 patients, with an aggregate TDR prevalence of 12% (95% confidence interval, 10% to 14%) increasing over time (P = .02). Resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs; 8%) was common, followed by nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (4%) and protease inhibitors (2%). Factors associated with TDR were being a man reporting sex with men, white race, young age, higher CD4 cell count, and being a member of a transmission cluster. Transmitted drug resistance was identified in 106 clusters ranging from 2 to 26 members. Cluster resistance was primarily NNRTI and dominated by ART-naïve patients or those with unknown ART initiation.

Conclusions

Moderate TDR prevalence persists in North Carolina, predominantly driven by NNRTI resistance. Most TDR cases were identified in transmission clusters, signifying multiple local transmission networks and TDR circulation among ART-naïve persons. Transmitted drug resistance surveillance can detect transmission networks and identify patients for enhanced services to promote early treatment.

Epidemiological surveillance of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance among newly diagnosed individuals in Shijiazhuang, northern China, 2014-2015

BACKGROUND

The widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to considerable concerns about the prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR). Sexual contact, particularly men who have sex with men (MSM) was the most prevalent form of HIV transmission in Shijiazhuang. Hence, we conducted an epidemiological surveillance study on TDR among newly diagnosed individuals who infected-HIV through sexual contact in from 2014-2015.

METHODS

Genotypic resistance mutations were defined using the WHO-2009 surveillance list. Potential impact on antiretroviral drug was predicted according to the Stanford HIV db program version 7.0. The role of transmission clusters in drug resistant strains was evaluated by phylogenetic and network analyses.

RESULTS

In this study, 589 individuals were recruited and 542 samples were amplified and sequenced successfully. The over prevalence of TDR was 6.1%: 1.8% to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 2.0% to non- NRTIs (NNRTIs) and 2.4% to protease inhibitors (PIs), respectively. We did not find significant differences in the TDR prevalence by demographic and clinical characteristics (p > 0.05). Using network and phylogenetic analysis, almost 60.0% sequences were clustered together. Of these clusters, 2 included at least two individuals carrying the same resistance mutation, accounting for 21.2% (7/33) individuals with TDR. No significant difference was observed in the clustering rate between the individuals with and without TDR.

CONCLUSIONS

We obtained a moderate level TDR rate in studied region. These findings enhance our understanding of HIV-1 drug resistance prevalence in Shijiazhuang, and may be helpful for the comprehensive prevention and control of HIV-1.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Slovenia and its impact on predicted treatment effectiveness: 2011-2016 update

HIV-positive individuals that have a detected transmitted drug resistance (TDR) at baseline have a higher risk of virological failure with antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study offers an update on the prevalence of TDR in Slovenia, looks for onward transmission of TDR, and reassesses the need for baseline drug resistance testing. Blinded questionnaires and partial pol sequences were obtained from 54.5% (168/308) of all of the patients diagnosed with HIV-1 from 2011 to 2016. Subtype B was detected in 82.7% (139/168) of patients, followed by subtype A (8.3%), subtype C (2.4%), and CRF01_AE (1.8%). Surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) were found in four individuals (2.4%), all of them men who have sex with men (MSM) and infected with subtype B. K103N was detected in two patients and T68D and T215D in one person each, corresponding to a prevalence of 0%, 1.2%, and 1.2% of TDR to protease inhibitors (PIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and non-NRTIs (NNRTIs), respectively. The impact of mutations on drug susceptibility was found to be most pronounced for NNRTIs. No forward spread of TDR within the country was observed; however, phylogenetic analysis revealed several new introductions of HIV into Slovenia in recent years, possibly due to increased risky behavior by MSM. This was indirectly confirmed by a substantial increase in syphilis cases and HIV-1 non-B subtypes during the study period. A drug-resistant HIV variant with good transmission fitness is thus more likely to be imported into Slovenia in the near future, and so TDR should be closely monitored.

Quantifying the fitness cost of HIV-1 drug resistance mutations through phylodynamics

Drug resistant HIV is a major threat to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral treatment. Around 10% of ART-naïve patients in Europe are infected with drug-resistant HIV type 1. Hence it is important to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance evolution. Thanks to routinely performed drug resistance tests, HIV sequence data is increasingly available and can be used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship among viral lineages. In this study we employ a phylodynamic approach to quantify the fitness costs of major resistance mutations in the Swiss HIV cohort. The viral phylogeny reflects the transmission tree, which we model using stochastic birth–death-sampling processes with two types: hosts infected by a sensitive or resistant strain. This allows quantification of fitness cost as the ratio between transmission rates of hosts infected by drug resistant strains and transmission rates of hosts infected by drug sensitive strains. The resistance mutations 41L, 67N, 70R, 184V, 210W, 215D, 215S and 219Q (nRTI-related) and 103N, 108I, 138A, 181C, 190A (NNRTI-related) in the reverse trancriptase and the 90M mutation in the protease gene are included in this study. Among the considered resistance mutations, only the 90M mutation in the protease gene was found to have significantly higher fitness than the drug sensitive strains. The following mutations associated with resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors were found to be less fit than the sensitive strains: 67N, 70R, 184V, 219Q. The highest posterior density intervals of the transmission ratios for the remaining resistance mutations included in this study all included 1, suggesting that these mutations do not have a significant effect on viral transmissibility within the Swiss HIV cohort. These patterns are consistent with alternative measures of the fitness cost of resistance mutations. Overall, we have developed and validated a novel phylodynamic approach to estimate the transmission fitness cost of drug resistance mutations.

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has decreased mortality and morbidity rates among HIV-infected people, and improved their quality of life. In fact, the WHO states that antiretroviral therapy programmes averted an estimated 7.8 million deaths worldwide between 2000 and 2014. However, the antiretroviral regimen prescribed to a patient may be unable to control HIV infection. Factors that can contribute to treatment failure include drug resistance, drug toxicity, or poor treatment adherence. In this study we aim to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance by analysing the viral sequence data that was collected for resistance testing. We present a novel approach to quantify how drug resistance impacts virus lineage transmissibility, how fast resistance mutations evolve in sensitive strains and how fast they revert back to the sensitive type. We apply our approach to the Swiss HIV cohort study, and obtain patterns of viral transmission fitness that are consistent with alternative, harder to obtain measures of fitness.