Decline in early life mortality in a high HIV prevalence rural area of South Africa: evidence of HIV prevention or treatment impact?

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

Clinical Features of HIV Arthropathy in Children: A Case Series and Literature Review

Background

HIV infection has been associated with a non-erosive inflammatory arthritis in children, although few published reports exist. This study describes the clinical, laboratory and imaging features of this noncommunicable disease in a series of HIV-infected children in South Africa.

Methods

A database search was conducted to identify HIV-infected children enrolled in a Paediatric Rheumatology service in Cape Town, South Africa between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2020. Retrospective data were collected from individuals classified with HIV arthropathy, based on a predefined checklist. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, sonographic, therapeutic, and outcomes data were extracted by chart review. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed using R (v4.0.3).

Results

Eleven cases of HIV arthropathy were included in the analysis. Cases predominantly presented in older boys with low CD4+ counts. Median age at arthritis onset was 10.3 years (IQR 6.9 – 11.6) and the male-female ratio was 3.0. The median absolute CD4+ count was 389 cells/uL (IQR 322 – 449). The clinical presentation was variable, with both oligoarthritis and polyarthritis being common. Elevated acute phase reactants were the most consistent laboratory feature, with a median ESR of 126 mL/h (IQR 67 – 136) and median CRP of 36 mg/L (IQR 25 – 68). Ultrasonography demonstrated joint effusions and synovial hypertrophy. Response to therapy was slower than has generally been described in adults, with almost all cases requiring more than one immunosuppressive agent. Five children were discharged in established remission after discontinuing immunotherapy, however outcomes data were incomplete for the remaining six cases.

Conclusions

In this case series, HIV arthropathy was associated with advanced immunosuppression. Therapeutic modalities included immunomodulators and antiretroviral therapy, which consistently induced disease remission although data were limited by a high rate of attrition. Prospective studies are needed to define and understand this HIV-associated noncommunicable disease.

The compounding effect of having HIV and a disability on child mortality among mothers in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Previous research on the association between maternal HIV status and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa was published between 2005-2011. Findings from these studies showed a higher child mortality risk among children born to HIV-positive mothers. While the population of women with disabilities is growing in developing countries, we found no research that examined the association between maternal disability in HIV-positive mothers, and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examined the potential compounding effect of maternal disability and HIV status on child mortality in South Africa.

METHODS

We analyzed data for women age 15-49 years from South Africa, using the nationally representative 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. We estimated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios of child mortality indicators by maternal disability and maternal HIV using modified Poisson regressions.

RESULTS

Children born to disabled mothers compared to their peers born to non-disabled mothers were at a higher risk for neonatal mortality (RR = 1.80, 95% CI:1.31-2.49), infant mortality (RR = 1.69, 95% CI:1.19-2.41), and under-five mortality (RR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.05-3.01). The joint risk of maternal disability and HIV-positive status on the selected child mortality indicators is compounded such that it is more than the sum of the risks from maternal disability or maternal HIV-positive status alone (RR = 3.97 vs. joint RR = 3.67 for neonatal mortality; RR = 3.57 vs. joint RR = 3.25 for infant mortality; RR = 6.44 vs. joint RR = 3.75 for under-five mortality).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that children born to HIV-positive women with disabilities are at an exceptionally high risk of premature mortality. Established inequalities faced by women with disabilities may account for this increased risk. Given that maternal HIV and disability amplify each other's impact on child mortality, addressing disabled women's HIV-related needs and understanding the pathways and mechanisms contributing to these disparities is crucial.

Child mortality associated with maternal HIV status: a retrospective analysis in Rwanda, 2005-2015

INTRODUCTION

Child mortality remains highest in regions of the world most affected by HIV/AIDS. The aim of this study was to assess child mortality rates in relation to maternal HIV status from 2005 to 2015, the period of rapid HIV treatment scale-up in Rwanda.

METHODS

We used data from the 2005, 2010 and 2015 Rwanda Demographic Health Surveys to derive under-2 mortality rates by survey year and mother's HIV status and to build a multivariable logistic regression model to establish the association of independent predictors of under-2 mortality stratified by mother's HIV status.

RESULTS

In total, 12 010 live births were reported by mothers in the study period. Our findings show a higher mortality among children born to mothers with HIV compared with HIV negative mothers in 2005 (216.9 vs 100.7 per 1000 live births) and a significant reduction in mortality for both groups in 2015 (72.0 and 42.4 per 1000 live births, respectively). In the pooled reduced multivariable model, the odds of child mortality was higher among children born to mothers with HIV, (adjusted OR, AOR 2.09; 95% CI 1.57 to 2.78). The odds of child mortality were reduced in 2010 (AOR 0.69; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.81) and 2015 (AOR 0.35; 95% CI 0.28 to 0.44) compared with 2005. Other independent predictors of under-2 mortality included living in smaller families of 1-2 members (AOR 5.25; 95% CI 3.59 to 7.68), being twin (AOR 4.93; 95% CI 3.51 to 6.92) and being offspring from mothers not using contraceptives at the time of the survey (AOR 1.6; 95% CI 1.38 to 1.99). Higher education of mothers (completed primary school: (AOR 0.74; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.87) and secondary or higher education: (AOR 0.53; 95% CI 0.38 to 0.74)) was also associated with reduced child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows an important decline in under-2 child mortality among children born to both mothers with and without HIV in Rwanda over a 10-year span.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Impact of the implementation of new guidelines on the management of patients with HIV infection at an advanced HIV clinic in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

BACKGROUND

HIV continues to be the main determinant morbidity with high mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a high number of patients being late presenters with advanced HIV. Clinical management of advanced HIV patients is thus complex and requires strict adherence to updated, empirical and simplified guidelines. The current study investigated the impact of the implementation of a new clinical guideline on the management of advanced HIV in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of routine clinical data of advanced HIV patients was conducted for the periods; February 2016 to March 2017, before implementation of new guidelines, and November 2017 to July 2018, after the implementation of new guidelines. Eligible patients were patients with CD4 < 200 cell/μl and presenting with at least 1 of 4 opportunistic infections. Patient files were reviewed by a medical doctor and a committee of 3 other doctors for congruence. Statistical significance was set at 0.05%.

RESULTS

Two hundred four and Two hundred thirty-one patients were eligible for inclusion before and after the implementation of new guidelines respectively. Sex and age distributions were similar for both periods, and median CD4 were 36 & 52 cell/μl, before and after the new guidelines implementation, respectively. 40.7% of patients had at least 1 missed/incorrect diagnosis before the new guidelines compared to 30% after new guidelines, p < 0.05. Clinical diagnosis for TB and toxoplasmosis were also much improved after the implementation of new guidelines. In addition, only 63% of patients had CD4 count test results before the new guidelines compared to 99% of patients after new guidelines. Death odds after the implementation of new guidelines were significantly lower than before new guidelines in a multivariate regression model that included patients CD4 count and 10 other covariates, p < 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Simplification and implementation of a new and improved HIV clinical guideline coupled with the installation of laboratory equipment and point of care tests potentially helped reduce incorrect diagnosis and improve clinical outcomes of patients with advanced HIV. Regulating authorities should consider developing simplified versions of guidelines followed by the provision of basic diagnostic equipment to health centers.

The effects of maternal and child HIV infection on health equity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia, and the implications for the health system: a case-control study

Services that aim to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) can simultaneously reduce the overall impact of HIV infection in a population while also improving maternal and child health outcomes. By taking a health equity perspective, this retrospective case control study aimed to compare the health status of under-5 children born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Two hundred and thirteen HIV-positive women (cases), and 214 HIV-negative women (controls) participated through interviews regarding their oldest children. Of the children born to HIV-positive mothers, 24% had not been tested, and 17% of those who had been tested were HIV-positive themselves. Only 29% of the HIV-positive children were linked to an ART programme. Unexpectedly, exposed HIV-negative children had fewer reports of perceived poor health as compared to unexposed children. Over 90% of all the children, regardless of maternal HIV status, were breastfed and up-to-date with the recommended immunizations. The high rate of HIV infection among the babies of HIV-positive women along with their low rates of antiretroviral treatment raises serious concerns about the quality of outreach to pregnant women in Tigray Region, and of the follow-up for children who have been exposed to HIV via their mothers.

Investigating risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014

INTRODUCTION

Despite global progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of under-five year old deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where four out of five child deaths occur. Substantial progress has been made in improving sanitation, controlling communicable diseases and the spread of HIV in most parts of the world. However, significant strides to address some key risk factors related to under-five mortality are still needed in rural SSA if they are to attain relevant 2030 SDG targets. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014. Some of the key risk factors investigated are, for example: household wealth, source of drinking water, distance to the national road and birth order.

METHODS

We conducted a statistical analysis of 759 births from a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, from 2000 to 2014. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to identify the risk factors and key socio-demographic correlates of under-five mortality leveraging the longitudinal structure of the population cohort.

RESULTS

Child mortality rates declined by 80 per cent from 2000 to 2014, from >140 per 1,000 persons in years 2001-2003 to 20 per 1,000 persons in the year 2014. The highest under-five mortality rate was recorded in 2002/2003, which decreased following the start of antiretroviral therapy rollout in 2003/4. The results indicated that under-five and infant mortality are significantly associated with a low wealth index of 1.49 (1.007-2.48) for under-fives and 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for infants. Children and infants with a lower wealth index had a significantly increased risk of mortality as compared to those with a high wealth index. Other significant factors included: source of household drinking water (borehole) 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for under-fives and 2.98 (1.62-5.49) for infants; having an HIV positive mother 4.22 (2.68-6.65) for under-fives and 3.26 (1.93-5.51) for infants, and period of death 9.13 (5.70-14.6) for under-fives and 1.28 (0.75-2.20) for infants. Wealth index had the largest population attributable fraction of 25.4 per cent.

CONCLUSIONS

The research findings show a substantial overall reduction in under-five mortality since 2003. Unsafe household water sources and having an HIV-positive mother were associated with an increased risk of under-five mortality in this rural setting. The significant risk factors identified align well with the SDG 2030 targets for reducing child mortality, which include improved nutrition, sanitation, hygiene and reduced HIV infections. Current trajectories suggest that there is some hope for meeting the 2030 SGD targets in rural South Africa and the region if the identified significant risk factors are adequately addressed.

Factors affecting adherence to antiretroviral therapy among pregnant women in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Background

Context-specific factors influence adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among pregnant women living with HIV. Gaps exist in the understanding of the reasons for the variable outcomes of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programme at the health facility level in South Africa. This study examined adherence levels and reasons for non-adherence during pregnancy in a cohort of parturient women enrolled in the PMTCT programme in the Eastern Cape, South Africa.

Methods

This was a mixed-methods study involving 1709 parturient women in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. We conducted a multi-centre retrospective analysis of the mother-infant pair in the PMTCT electronic database in 2016. Semi-structured interviews of purposively selected parturient women with self-reported poor adherence (n = 177) were conducted to gain understanding of the main barriers to adherence. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of ART non-adherence.

Results

A high proportion (69.0%) of women reported perfect adherence. In the logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factors, marital status, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and non-disclosure to a family member were the independent predictors of non-adherence. Analysis of the qualitative data revealed that drug-related side-effects, being away from home, forgetfulness, non-disclosure, stigma and work-related demand were among the main reasons for non-adherence to ART.

Conclusions

Non-adherence to the antiretroviral therapy among pregnant women in this setting is associated with lifestyle behaviours, HIV-related stigma and ART side-effects. In order to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV, clinicians need to screen for these factors at every antenatal clinic visit.

Living with HIV, disclosure patterns and partnerships a decade after the introduction of HIV programmes in rural South Africa

Prevention of mother-to-child Transmission and HIV Treatment programmes were scaled-up in resource-constrained settings over a decade ago, but there is still much to be understood about women's experiences of living with HIV and their HIV disclosure patterns. This qualitative study explored women's experiences of living with HIV, 6–10 years after being diagnosed during pregnancy. The area has high HIV prevalence, and an established HIV treatment programme. Participants were enrolled in a larger intervention, “Amagugu”, that supported women (n = 281) to disclose their HIV status to their children. Post-intervention we conducted individual in-depth interviews with 20 randomly selected women, stratified by clinic catchment area, from the total sample. Interviews were entered into ATLAS.ti computer software for coding. Most women were living with their current sexual partner and half were still in a relationship with the child's biological father. Household exposure to HIV was high with the majority of women knowing at least one other HIV-infected adult in their household. Eighteen women had disclosed their HIV status to another person; nine had disclosed to their current partner first. Two main themes were identified in the analyses: living with HIV and the normalisation of HIV treatment at a family level; and the complexity of love relationships, in particular in long-term partnerships. A decade on, most women were living positively with HIV, accessing care, and reported experiencing little stigma. However, as HIV became normalised new challenges arose including concerns about access to quality care, and the need for family-centred care. Women's sexual choices and relationships were intertwined with feelings of love, loyalty and trust and the important supportive role played by partners and families was acknowledged, however, some aspects of living with HIV presented challenges including continuing to practise safe sex several years after HIV diagnosis.

Space-time variations in child mortality in a rural South African population with high HIV prevalence (2000-2014)

Objective

The aim of the study was to identify the key determinants of child mortality ‘hot-spots’ in space and time.

Methods

Comprehensive population-based mortality data collected between 2000 and 2014 by the Africa Centre Demographic Information System located in the UMkhanyakude District of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, was analysed. We assigned all mortality events and person-time of observation for children <5 years of age to an exact homestead of residence (mapped to <2m accuracy as part of the DSA platform). Using these exact locations, both the Kulldorff and Tango spatial scan statistics for regular and irregular shaped cluster detection were used to identify clusters of childhood mortality events in both space and time.

Findings

Of the 49 986 children aged < 5 years who resided in the study area between 2000 and 2014, 2010 (4.0%) died. Childhood mortality decreased by 80% over the period from >20 per 1000 person-years in 2001–2003 to 4 per 1000 person-years in 2014. The two scanning spatial techniques identified two high-risk clusters for child mortality along the eastern border of the study site near the national highway, with a relative risk of 2.10 and 1.91 respectively.

Conclusions

The high-risk communities detected in this work, and the differential risk factor profile of these communities, can assist public health professionals to identify similar populations in other parts of rural South Africa. Identifying child mortality hot-spots will potentially guide policy interventions in rural, resource-limited settings.

Mortality risk and associated factors in HIV-exposed, uninfected children

OBJECTIVE

With increasing maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART), the number of children newly infected with HIV has declined. However, the possible increased mortality in the large number of HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children may be of concern. We quantified mortality risks among HEU children and reviewed associated factors.

METHODS

Systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus). We included all studies reporting mortality of HEU children to age 60 months and associated factors. Relative risk of mortality between HEU and HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU) children was extracted where relevant. Inverse variance methods were used to adjust for study size. Random-effects models were fitted to obtain pooled estimates.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis and 13 in the review of associated factors. The pooled cumulative mortality in HEU children was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.0-7.2; I(2) = 94%) at 12 months (11 studies) and 11.0% (95% CI: 7.6-15.0; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (four studies). The pooled risk ratios for the mortality in HEU children compared to HUU children in the same setting were 1.9 (95% CI: 0.9-3.8; I(2) = 93%) at 12 months (four studies) and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.1; I(2) = 93%) at 24 months (three studies).

CONCLUSION

Compared to HUU children, mortality risk in HEU children was about double at both age points, although the association was not statistically significant at 12 months. Interpretation of the pooled estimates is confounded by considerable heterogeneity between studies. Further research is needed to characterise the impact of maternal death and breastfeeding on the survival of HEU infants in the context of maternal ART, where current evidence is limited.

What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?

Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs.

Premature adult mortality in urban Zambia: a repeated population-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To measure the sex-specific and community-specific mortality rates for adults in Lusaka, Zambia, and to identify potential individual-level, household-level and community-level correlates of premature mortality. We conducted 12 survey rounds of a population-based cross-sectional study between 2004 and 2011, and collected data via a structured interview with a household head.

SETTING

Households in Lusaka District, Zambia, 2004-2011.

PARTICIPANTS

43,064 household heads (88% female) who enumerated 123,807 adult household members aged between 15 and 60 years.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Premature adult mortality.

RESULTS

The overall mortality rate was 16.2/1000 person-years for men and 12.3/1000 person-years for women. The conditional probability of dying between age 15 and 60 (45q15) was 0.626 for men and 0.537 for women. The top three causes of death for men and women were infectious in origin (ie, tuberculosis, HIV and malaria). We observed an over twofold variation of mortality rates between communities. The mortality rate was 1.98 times higher (95% CI 1.57 to 2.51) in households where a family member required nursing care, 1.44 times higher (95% CI 1.22 to 1.71) during the cool dry season, and 1.28 times higher (95% CI 1.06 to 1.54) in communities with low-cost housing.

CONCLUSIONS

To meet Zambia's development goals, further investigation is needed into the factors associated with adult mortality. Mortality can potentially be reduced through focus on high-need households and communities, and improved infectious disease prevention and treatment services.

Morbidity and mortality in HIV-exposed uninfected children

Approximately 1.5 million HIV-positive women become pregnant annually. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is central to prevention of mother-to-child transmission and maternal ART continued postpartum allows breastfeeding for at least 1 year of life, with important benefits for the child. In the pre-ART era, it was suggested that HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children may be at higher morbidity and mortality risk than children of HIV-negative mothers, associated with maternal illness and death and the lack, or limited duration, of breastfeeding as recommended for preventing mother-to-child transmission at that time. This review summarizes the evidence on morbidity and mortality risk in HEU children compared with HIV-unexposed children, and assesses the likely impact of roll-out of ART, which prolongs maternal survival and allows breastfeeding.

Maternal and child psychological outcomes of HIV disclosure to young children in rural South Africa: the Amagugu intervention

OBJECTIVES

Increasingly, HIV-infected parents are surviving to nurture their children. Parental HIV disclosure is beneficial, but disclosure rates to younger children remain low. Previously, we demonstrated that the 'Amagugu' intervention increased disclosure to young children; however, effects on psychological outcomes have not been examined in detail. This study investigates the impact of the intervention on the maternal and child psychological outcomes.

METHOD

This pre-post evaluation design enrolled 281 HIV-infected women and their HIV-uninfected children (6-10 years) at the Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, in rural South Africa. The intervention included six home-based counselling sessions delivered by lay-counsellors. Psychological outcomes included maternal psychological functioning (General Health Questionnaire, GHQ12 using 0,1,2,3 scoring); parenting stress (Parenting Stress Index, PSI36); and child emotional and behavioural functioning (Child Behaviour Checklist, CBCL).

RESULTS

The proportions of mothers with psychological distress reduced after intervention: GHQ threshold at least 12 (from 41.3 to 24.9%, P < 0.001) and GHQ threshold at least 20 (from 17.8 to 11.7%, P = 0.040). Parenting stress scores also reduced (Pre M = 79.8; Post M = 76.2, P < 0.001): two subscales, parental distress and parent-child relationship, showed significant improvement, while mothers' perception of 'child as difficult' was not significantly improved. Reductions in scores were not moderated by disclosure level (full/partial). There was a significant reduction in child emotional and behavioural problems (CBCL Pre M = 56.1; Post M = 48.9, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Amagugu led to improvements in mothers' and children's mental health and parenting stress, irrespective of disclosure level, suggesting general nonspecific positive effects on family relationships. Findings require validation in a randomized control trial.

The impacts of maternal mortality and cause of death on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa: evidence from a population based surveillance study (1992-2013)

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and child survival are closely linked. This study contributes evidence on the impact of maternal death on children's risk of dying in an HIV-endemic population in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used data for children younger than 10 years from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1992 - 2013). We used discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's risk of dying when they experienced a maternal death compared to children whose mother survived (N=3,740,992 child months). We also examined variation in risk due to cause of maternal death. We defined mother's survival status as early maternal death (during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of most recent childbirth or identified cause of death), late maternal death (within 43-365 days of most recent childbirth), any other death, and mothers who survived.

RESULTS

Children who experienced an early maternal death were at 15 times the risk of dying (RRR 15.2; 95% CI 8.3-27.9) compared to children whose mother survived. Children under 1 month whose mother died an early (p=0.002) maternal death were at increased risk of dying compared to older children. Children whose mothers died of an HIV/AIDS or TB-related early maternal death were at 29 times the risk of dying compared to children with surviving mothers (RRR 29.2; 95% CI 11.7-73.1). The risk of these children dying was significantly higher than those children whose mother died of a HIV/AIDS or TB-related non-maternal death (p=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes further evidence on the impact of a mother's death on child survival in a poor, rural setting with high HIV prevalence. The intersecting epidemics of maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS - especially in sub-Saharan Africa - have profound implications for maternal and child health and well-being. Such evidence can help guide public and primary health care practice and interventions.

HIV-positive status disclosure and use of essential PMTCT and maternal health services in rural Kenya

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Background:

In sub-Saharan Africa, women's disclosure of HIV-positive status to others may affect their use of services for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) of HIV and maternal and child health—including antenatal care, antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for PMTCT, and skilled birth attendance.

Methods:

Using data from the Migori and AIDS Stigma Study conducted in rural Nyanza Province, Kenya, we compared the use of PMTCT and maternal health services for all women by HIV status and disclosure category (n = 390). Among HIV-infected women (n = 145), associations between disclosure of HIV-positive status and the use of services were further examined with bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results:

Women living with HIV who had not disclosed to anyone had the lowest levels of maternity and PMTCT service utilization. For example, only 21% of these women gave birth in a health facility, compared with 35% of HIV-negative women and 49% of HIV-positive women who had disclosed (P < 0.001). Among HIV-positive women, the effect of disclosure to anyone on ARV drug use [odds ratio (OR) = 5.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9 to 17.8] and facility birth (OR = 2.9; 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.7) remained large and significant after adjusting for confounders. Disclosure to a male partner had a particularly strong effect on the use of ARVs for PMTCT (OR = 7.9; 95% CI: 3.7 to 17.1).

Conclusions:

HIV-positive status disclosure seems to be a complex yet critical factor for the use of PMTCT and maternal health services in this setting. The design of interventions to promote such disclosure must recognize the impact of HIV-related stigma on disclosure decisions and protect women's rights, autonomy, and safety.

Maternal HIV status associated with under-five mortality in rural Northern Malawi: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality is decreasing but with little change in neonatal mortality rates. We examined the effect of maternal HIV status on under-five mortality and cause of death since widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy in rural Malawi.

METHODS

Children born in 2006-2011 in the Karonga demographic surveillance area were included. Maternal HIV status was available from HIV serosurveys. Age-specific mortality rate ratios for children born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers were obtained by fitting a Poisson model accounting for child clustering by mother and adjusting for potential confounders. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy.

FINDINGS

There were 352 deaths among 6913 under-five singleton children followed for 20,754 person-years (py), giving a mortality rate of 17.0/1000 py overall, 218/1000 py (16.5/1000 live births) in neonates, 20/1000 py (17.4/1000 live births) in postneonatal infants, and 8/1000 py in 1-4 years old. Comparing those born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers, the rate ratio adjusted for child age, sex, maternal age, parity, and drinking water source was 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6 to 3.7) in neonates, 11.5 (95% CI: 7.2 to 18.5) in postneonatal infants, and 4.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 7.9) in 1-4 years old. Birth injury/asphyxia, neonatal sepsis, and prematurity contributed >70% of neonatal deaths, whereas acute infections, malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia accounted for most deaths in older children.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal HIV status had little effect on neonatal mortality but was associated with much higher mortality in the postneonatal period and among older children. Greater attention to HIV care in pregnant women and mothers should help improve child survival, but broader interventions are needed to reduce neonatal mortality.

Who died of what in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a cause of death analysis using InterVA-4

Background

For public health purposes, it is important to see whether men and women in different age groups die of the same causes in South Africa.

Objective

We explored sex- and age-specific patterns of causes of deaths in a rural demographic surveillance site in northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa over the period 2000–2011.

Design

Deaths reported through the demographic surveillance were followed up by a verbal autopsy (VA) interview using a standardised questionnaire. Causes of death were assigned likelihoods using the publicly available tool InterVA-4. Cause-specific mortality fractions were determined by age and sex.

Results

Over the study period, a total of 5,416 (47%) and 6,081 (53%) deaths were recorded in men and women, respectively. Major causes of death proportionally affecting more women than men were (all p<0.0001): human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) (20.1% vs. 13.6%), other and unspecified cardiac disease (5.9% vs. 3.2%), stroke (4.5% vs. 2.7%), reproductive neoplasms (1.7% vs. 0.4%), diabetes (2.4% vs. 1.2%), and breast neoplasms (0.4% vs. 0%). Major causes of deaths proportionally affecting more men than women were (all p<0.0001) assault (6.1% vs. 1.7%), pulmonary tuberculosis (34.5% vs. 30.2%), road traffic accidents (3.0% vs. 1.0%), intentional self-harm (1.3% vs. 0.3%), and respiratory neoplasms (2.5% vs. 1.5%). Causes of death due to communicable diseases predominated in all age groups except in older persons.

Conclusions

While mortality during the 2000s was dominated by tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, we found substantial sex-specific differences both for communicable and non-communicable causes of death, some which can be explained by a differing sex-specific age structure. InterVA-4 is likely to be a valuable tool for investigating causes of death patterns in other similar Southern African settings.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

Background

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials.

Methods

We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR).

Results

Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya.

Conclusions

The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums.

Review: [corrected] The changing face of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially changed the face of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected individuals dramatically reduces mortality and improves employment rates to levels prior to HIV infection. Recent findings from several studies have shown that ART reduces HIV transmission risk even with modest ART coverage of the HIV-infected population and imperfect ART adherence. While condoms are highly effective in the prevention of HIV acquisition, they are compromised by low and inconsistent usage; male medical circumcision substantially reduces HIV transmission but uptake remains relatively low; ART during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding can virtually eliminate mother-to-child transmission but implementation is challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. The current HIV prevention recommendations focus on a combination of preventions approach, including ART as treatment or pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis together with condoms, circumcision and sexual behaviour modification. Improved survival in HIV-infected individuals and reduced HIV transmission risk is beginning to result in limited HIV incidence decline at population level and substantial increases in HIV prevalence. However, achievements in HIV treatment and prevention are threatened by the challenges of lifelong adherence to preventive and therapeutic methods and by the ageing of the HIV-infected cohorts potentially complicating HIV management. Although current thinking suggests prevention of HIV transmission through early detection of infection immediately followed by ART could eventually result in elimination of the HIV epidemic, controversies remain as to whether we can treat our way out of the HIV epidemic.

Trends in all-cause mortality during the scale-up of an antiretroviral therapy programme: a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, Zambia

OBJECTIVE

To follow the trends in all-cause mortality in Lusaka, Zambia, during the scale-up of a national programme of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

Between November 2004 and September 2011, we conducted 12 survey rounds as part of a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, with independent sampling in each round. In each survey, we asked the heads of 3600 households to state the number of deaths in their households in the previous 12 months and the number of orphans aged less than 16 years in their households and investigated the heads' knowledge, attitudes and practices related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

FINDINGS

The number of deaths we recorded - per 100 person-years - in each survey ranged from 0.92 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.78-1.09) in September 2011, to 1.94 (95% CI: 1.60-2.35) in March 2007. We found that mortality decreased only modestly each year (mortality rate ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.95-1.00; P = 0.093). The proportion of households with orphans under the age of 16 years decreased from 17% in 2004 to 7% in 2011. The proportions of respondents who had ever been tested for HIV, had a comprehensive knowledge of HIV, knew where to obtain free ART and reported that a non-pregnant household member was receiving ART gradually increased.

CONCLUSION

The expansion of ART services in Lusaka was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Coverage, patient adherence and retention may all have to be increased if ART is to have a robust and lasting impact at population level in Lusaka.

Aetiology and management of malnutrition in HIV-positive children

Worldwide, more than 3 million children are infected with HIV and, without treatment, mortality among these children is extremely high. Both acute and chronic malnutrition are major problems for HIV-positive children living in resource-limited settings. Malnutrition on a background of HIV represents a separate clinical entity, with unique medical and social aetiological factors. Children with HIV have a higher daily calorie requirement than HIV-negative peers and also a higher requirement for micronutrients; furthermore, coinfection and chronic diarrhoea due to HIV enteropathy play a major role in HIV-associated malnutrition. Contributory factors include late presentation to medical services, unavailability of antiretroviral therapy, other issues surrounding healthcare provision and food insecurity in HIV-positive households. Treatment protocols for malnutrition have been greatly improved, yet there remains a discrepancy in mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative children. In this review, the aetiology, prevention and treatment of malnutrition in HIV-positive children are examined, with particular focus on resource-limited settings where this problem is most prevalent.

Understanding the contribution of common childhood illnesses and opportunistic infections to morbidity and mortality in children living with HIV in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE

Although antiretroviral treatment (ART) has reduced the incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections among children living with HIV, access to ART remains limited for children, especially in resource-limited settings. This paper reviews current knowledge on the contribution of opportunistic infections and common childhood illnesses to morbidity and mortality in children living with HIV, highlights interventions known to improve the health of children, and identifies research gaps for further exploration.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Literature review of peer-reviewed articles and abstracts combined with expert opinion and operational experience.

RESULTS

Morbidity and mortality due to opportunistic infections has decreased in both developed and resource-limited countries. However, the burden of HIV-related infections remains high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of HIV-infected children live. Limitations in diagnostic capacity in resource-limited settings have resulted in a relative paucity of data on opportunistic infections in children. Additionally, the reliance on clinical diagnosis means that opportunistic infections are often confused with common childhood illnesseswhich also contribute to excess morbidity and mortality in these children. Although several preventive interventions have been shown to decrease opportunistic infection-related mortality, implementation of many of these interventions remains inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to reduce opportunistic infection-related mortality, early ART must be expanded, training for front-line clinicians must be improved, and additional research is needed to improve screening and diagnostic algorithms.

Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Our study uses sex-specific and age-specific HIV prevalence data from an ongoing population-based demographic and HIV survey to infer HIV incidence and survival in rural KwaZulu-Natal between 2003 and 2011, a period when antiretroviral treatment (ART) was rolled out on a large scale.

DESIGN

Catalytic mathematical model for estimating HIV incidence and differential survival in HIV-infected persons on multiple rounds of HIV seroprevalence.

METHODS

We evaluate trends of HIV incidence and survival by estimating parameters separately for women and men aged 15-49 years during three calendar periods (2003-2005, 2006-2008, 2009-2011) reflecting increasing ART coverage. We compare model-based estimates of HIV incidence with observed cohort-based estimates from the longitudinal HIV surveillance.

RESULTS

Median survival after HIV infection increased significantly between 2003-2005 and 2009-2011 from 10.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.8-11.2] to 14.2 (95% CI 12.6-15.8) years in women (P < 0.001) and from 10.0 (95% CI 9.2-10.8) to 14.0 (95% CI 10.6-17.4) years in men (P = 0.02). Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15-49 years in 2009-2011 compared with 2003-2005. Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.

CONCLUSION

Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

HIV-related stigma as a barrier to achievement of global PMTCT and maternal health goals: a review of the evidence

The global community has set goals of virtual elimination of new child HIV infections and 50 percent reduction in HIV-related maternal mortality by the year 2015. Although much progress has been made in expanding prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services, there are serious challenges to these global goals, given low rates of utilization of PMTCT services in many settings. We reviewed the literature from low-income settings to examine how HIV-related stigma affects utilization of the series of steps that women must complete for successful PMTCT. We found that stigma negatively impacts service uptake and adherence at each step of this "PMTCT cascade". Modeling exercises indicate that these effects are cumulative and therefore significantly affect rates of infant HIV infection. Alongside making clinical services more available, effective, and accessible for pregnant women, there is also a need to integrate stigma-reduction components into PMTCT, maternal, neonatal, and child health services.

The contribution of spatial analysis to understanding HIV/TB mortality in children: a structural equation modelling approach

BACKGROUND

South Africa accounts for more than a sixth of the global population of people infected with HIV and TB, ranking her highest in HIV/TB co-infection worldwide. Remote areas often bear the greatest burden of morbidity and mortality, yet there are spatial differences within rural settings.

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim was to investigate HIV/TB mortality determinants and their spatial distribution in the rural Agincourt sub-district for children aged 1-5 years in 2004. Our secondary aim was to model how the associated factors were interrelated as either underlying or proximate factors of child mortality using pathway analysis based on a Mosley-Chen conceptual framework.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary data analysis based on cross-sectional data collected in 2004 from the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeast South Africa. Child HIV/TB death was the outcome measure derived from physician assessed verbal autopsy. Modelling used multiple logit regression models with and without spatial household random effects. Structural equation models were used in modelling the complex relationships between multiple exposures and the outcome (child HIV/TB mortality) as relayed on a conceptual framework.

RESULTS

Fifty-four of 6,692 children aged 1-5 years died of HIV/TB, from a total of 5,084 households. Maternal death had the greatest effect on child HIV/TB mortality (adjusted odds ratio=4.00; 95% confidence interval=1.01-15.80). A protective effect was found in households with better socio-economic status and when the child was older. Spatial models disclosed that the areas which experienced the greatest child HIV/TB mortality were those without any health facility.

CONCLUSION

Low socio-economic status and maternal deaths impacted indirectly and directly on child mortality, respectively. These factors are major concerns locally and should be used in formulating interventions to reduce child mortality. Spatial prediction maps can guide policy makers to target interventions where they are most needed.

Young children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death: a rural South African population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that a young child's risk of dying increases following the mother's death, but little is known about the risk when the mother becomes very ill prior to her death. We hypothesized that children would be more likely to die during the period several months before their mother's death, as well as for several months after her death. Therefore we investigated the relationship between young children's likelihood of dying and the timing of their mother's death and, in particular, the existence of a critical period of increased risk.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data from a health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa were collected on children 0-5 y of age from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2008. Discrete time survival analysis was used to estimate children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death, accounting for moderators. 1,244 children (3% of sample) died from 1994 to 2008. The probability of child death began to rise 6-11 mo prior to the mother's death and increased markedly during the 2 mo immediately before the month of her death (odds ratio [OR] 7.1 [95% CI 3.9-12.7]), in the month of her death (OR 12.6 [6.2-25.3]), and during the 2 mo following her death (OR 7.0 [3.2-15.6]). This increase in the probability of dying was more pronounced for children whose mothers died of AIDS or tuberculosis compared to other causes of death, but the pattern remained for causes unrelated to AIDS/tuberculosis. Infants aged 0-6 mo at the time of their mother's death were nine times more likely to die than children aged 2-5 y. The limitations of the study included the lack of knowledge about precisely when a very ill mother will die, a lack of information about child nutrition and care, and the diagnosis of AIDS deaths by verbal autopsy rather than serostatus.

CONCLUSIONS

Young children in lower income settings are more likely to die not only after their mother's death but also in the months before, when she is seriously ill. Interventions are urgently needed to support families both when the mother becomes very ill and after her death. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Neurodevelopment in children born to HIV-infected mothers by infection and treatment status

BACKGROUND

We reviewed the impact of HIV, HIV exposure, and antiretroviral therapy/prophylaxis on neurodevelopmental outcomes of HIV-infected and HIV-exposed-uninfected infants and children.

METHODS

A literature search of Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, and conference Web sites (1990-March 2011) using the search terms, infant, child, HIV, neurodevelopment, cognition, language, and antiretroviral therapy, identified 31 studies of HIV/antiretroviral exposure using standardized tools to evaluate infant/child development as the main outcome. Articles were included if results were reported in children <16 years of age who were exposed to HIV and antiretrovirals in fetal/early life, and excluded if children did not acquire HIV from their mothers or were not exposed to antiretrovirals in fetal/early life.

RESULTS

Infants who acquired HIV during fetal and early life tended to display poorer mean developmental scores than HIV-unexposed children. Mean motor and cognitive scores were consistently 1 to 2 SDs below the population mean. Mean scores improved if the infant received treatment before 12 weeks and/or a more complex antiretroviral regimen. Older HIV-infected children treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy demonstrated near normal global mean neurocognitive scores; subtle differences in language, memory, and behavior remained. HIV-exposed-uninfected children treated with antiretrovirals demonstrated subtle speech and language delay, although not universally.

CONCLUSIONS

In comparison with resource-rich settings, HIV-infected and HIV-exposed-uninfected infants/children in resource-poor settings demonstrated greater neurodevelopmental delay compared with HIV-unexposed infants. The effects on neurodevelopment in older HIV-infected children commenced on antiretroviral therapy from an early age and HIV-exposed-uninfected children particularly in resource-poor settings remain unclear.

Mortality and health outcomes of HIV-exposed and unexposed children in a PMTCT cohort in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Mortality and morbidity among HIV-exposed children are thought to be high in Malawi. We sought to determine mortality and health outcomes of HIV-exposed and unexposed infants within a PMTCT program.

METHOD

Data were collected as part of a retrospective cohort study in Zomba District, Malawi. HIV-infected mothers were identified via antenatal, delivery and postpartum records with a delivery date 18-20 months prior; the next registered HIV-uninfected mother was identified as a control. By interview and health record review, data on socio-demographic characteristics, service uptake, and health outcomes were collected. HIV-testing was offered to all exposed children.

RESULTS

173 HIV-infected and 214 uninfected mothers were included. 4 stillbirths (1.0%) occurred; among the 383 livebirths, 41 (10.7%) children died by 20 months (32 (18.7%) HIV-exposed and 9 unexposed children (4.3%; p<0.0001)). Risk factors for child death included: HIV-exposure [adjOR2.9(95%CI 1.1-7.2)], low birthweight [adjOR2.5(1.0-6.3)], previous child death (adjOR25.1(6.5-97.5)] and maternal death [adjOR5.3(11.4-20.5)]. At 20 months, HIV-infected children had significantly poorer health outcomes than HIV-unexposed children and HIV-exposed but uninfected children (HIV-EU), including: hospital admissions, delayed development, undernutrition and restrictions in function (Lansky scale); no significant differences were seen between HIV-EU and HIV-unexposed children. Overall, no difference was seen at 20 months among HIV-infected, HIV-EU and HIV-unexposed groups in Z-scores (%<-2.0) for weight, height and BMI. Risk factors for poor functional health status at 20 months included: HIV-infection [adjOR8.9(2.4-32.6)], maternal illness [adjOR2.8(1.5-5.0)] and low birthweight [adjOR2.0(1.0-4.1)].

CONCLUSION

Child mortality remains high within this context and could be reduced through more effective PMTCT including prioritizing the treatment of maternal HIV infection to address the effect of maternal health and survival on infant health and survival. HIV-infected children demonstrated developmental delays, functional health and nutritional deficits that underscore the need for increased uptake of early infant diagnosis and institution of ART for all infected infants.

A retrospective study of Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission, mortality and loss to follow-up among infants in the first 18 months of life in a prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme in an urban hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Follow up of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-exposed infants is an important component of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) programmes in order to ascertain infant outcomes post delivery. We determined HIV transmission, mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) of HIV-exposed infants attending a postnatal clinic in an urban hospital in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of infants born to women in the PMTCT programme at McCord Hospital, where mothers paid a fee for service. Data were abstracted from patient records for live-born infants delivered between 1 May 2008 and 31 May 2009. The infants’ LTFU status and age was based on the date of the last visit. HIV transmission was calculated as a proportion of infants followed and tested at six weeks. Mortality rates were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier (K-M), with censoring on 15 January 2010, LTFU or death.

Results

Of 260 infants, 155 (59.6%) remained in care at McCord beyond 28 weeks: one died at < 28 days, three died between one to six months; 34 were LTFU within seven days, 60 were LTFU by six months. K-M mortality rate: 1.7% at six months (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6% to 4.3%). Of 220 (83%) infants tested for HIV at six weeks, six (2.7%, 95% CI: 1.1% to 5.8%) were HIV-infected. In Cox regression analysis, late antenatal attendance (≥ 28 weeks gestation) relative to attending in the first trimester was a predictor for infant LTFU (adjusted hazards ratio = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.0 to 5.1; p = 0.044).

Conclusion

This urban PMTCT programme achieved low transmission rates at six weeks, but LTFU in the first six months limited our ability to examine HIV transmission up to 18 months and determinants of mortality. The LTFU of infants born to women who attended antenatal care at 28 weeks gestation or later emphasizes the need to identify late antenatal attendees for follow up care to educate and support them regarding the importance of follow up care for themselves and their infants.

Maternal HIV infection associated with small-for-gestational age infants but not preterm births: evidence from rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

 Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is prevalent in many countries where small-for-gestational age (SGA) and premature delivery are also common. However, the associations between maternal HIV, preterm delivery and SGA infants remain unclear. We estimate the prevalence of SGA and preterm (<37 weeks) births, their associations with antenatal maternal HIV infection and their contribution to infant mortality, in a high HIV prevalent, rural area in South Africa.

METHODS

Data were collected, in a non-randomized intervention cohort study, on all women attending antenatal clinics (2001–2004), before the availability of antiretroviral treatment. Newborns were weighed and gestational age was determined (based on last menstrual period plus midwife assessment antenatally). Poisson regression with robust variance assessed risk factors for preterm and SGA birth, while Cox regression assessed infant mortality and associated factors.

RESULTS

Of 2368 live born singletons, 16.6% were SGA and 21.4% were preterm. HIV-infected women (n= 1189) more commonly had SGA infants than uninfected women (18.1 versus 15.1%; P = 0.051), but percentages preterm were similar (21.8 versus 20.9%; P = 0.621). After adjustment for water source, delivery place, parity and maternal height, the SGA risk in HIV-infected women was higher [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.53], but the association between maternal HIV infection and preterm delivery remained weak and not significant (aRR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.91–1.26). In multivariable analyses, mortality under 1 year of age was significantly higher in SGA and severely SGA than in appropriate-for-gestational-age infants [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 2.12, 95% CI: 1.18–3.81 and 2.77, 95% CI: 1.56–4.91], but no difference in infant mortality was observed between the preterm and term infants (aHR: 1.18 95% CI: 0.79–1.79 for 34–36 weeks and 1.31, 95% CI: 0.58–2.94 for <34 weeks).

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal HIV infection increases the risk of SGA, but not preterm births, in this cohort.

Children who acquire HIV infection perinatally are at higher risk of early death than those acquiring infection through breastmilk: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Assumptions about survival of HIV-infected children in Africa without antiretroviral therapy need to be updated to inform ongoing UNAIDS modelling of paediatric HIV epidemics among children. Improved estimates of infant survival by timing of HIV-infection (perinatally or postnatally) are thus needed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A pooled analysis was conducted of individual data of all available intervention cohorts and randomized trials on prevention of HIV mother-to-child transmission in Africa. Studies were right-censored at the time of infant antiretroviral initiation. Overall mortality rate per 1000 child-years of follow-up was calculated by selected maternal and infant characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves by child's HIV infection status and timing of HIV infection. Individual data from 12 studies were pooled, with 12,112 children of HIV-infected women. Mortality rates per 1,000 child-years follow-up were 39.3 and 381.6 for HIV-uninfected and infected children respectively. One year after acquisition of HIV infection, an estimated 26% postnatally and 52% perinatally infected children would have died; and 4% uninfected children by age 1 year. Mortality was independently associated with maternal death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.2, 95%CI 1.6-3.0), maternal CD4<350 cells/ml (1.4, 1.1-1.7), postnatal (3.1, 2.1-4.1) or peri-partum HIV-infection (12.4, 10.1-15.3).

CONCLUSIONS/RESULTS

These results update previous work and inform future UNAIDS modelling by providing survival estimates for HIV-infected untreated African children by timing of infection. We highlight the urgent need for the prevention of peri-partum and postnatal transmission and timely assessment of HIV infection in infants to initiate antiretroviral care and support for HIV-infected children.

Treating HIV-infected mothers reduces under 5 years of age mortality rates to levels seen in children of HIV-uninfected mothers in rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Maternal and child survival are highly correlated, but the contribution of HIV infection on this relationship, and in particular the effect of HIV treatment, has not been quantified. We estimate the association between maternal HIV and treatment, and under 5 years of age (under-5) child mortality in a rural population in South Africa.

METHODS

All children born between January 2000 and January 2007 in the Africa Centre Demographic Surveillance Area were included. Maternal HIV status information was available from HIV surveillance; maternal antiretroviral treatment (ART) information from the HIV Treatment Programme database was linked to surveillance data. Mortality rates were computed as deaths per 1,000 person-years observed. Time-varying maternal HIV effect (positive, negative, ART) on under-5 mortality was assessed in Cox regression, adjusting for other factors associated with under-5 mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 9,068 mothers delivered 12,052 children, of whom 947 (7.9%) died before age 5. Infant mortality rate declined by 49% from 69.0 in 2000 to 35.5 in 2006 deaths per 1,000 person-years observed; a significant decline was observed post-ART (2004-2006). The estimated proportion of deaths across all age groups were higher among the children born to the HIV-positive and HIV-not-reported status women than among children of HIV-negative women. Multivariably, mortality in children of mothers on ART was not significantly different from children of HIV-negative mothers (adjusted hazard ratio 1.29, 0.53-3.17; P=0.572).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of maternal HIV treatment with direct benefits of improved survival among all children under-5. Timely HIV treatment for eligible women is required to benefit both mothers and children.

The role of HIV-related stigma in utilization of skilled childbirth services in rural Kenya: a prospective mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Childbirth with a skilled attendant is crucial for preventing maternal mortality and is an important opportunity for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. The Maternity in Migori and AIDS Stigma Study (MAMAS Study) is a prospective mixed-methods investigation conducted in a high HIV prevalence area in rural Kenya, in which we examined the role of women's perceptions of HIV-related stigma during pregnancy in their subsequent utilization of maternity services.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

From 2007-2009, 1,777 pregnant women with unknown HIV status completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire assessing their perceptions of HIV-related stigma before being offered HIV testing during their first antenatal care visit. After the visit, a sub-sample of women was selected for follow-up (all women who tested HIV-positive or were not tested for HIV, and a random sample of HIV-negative women, n = 598); 411 (69%) were located and completed another questionnaire postpartum. Additional qualitative in-depth interviews with community health workers, childbearing women, and family members (n = 48) aided our interpretation of the quantitative findings and highlighted ways in which HIV-related stigma may influence birth decisions. Qualitative data revealed that health facility birth is commonly viewed as most appropriate for women with pregnancy complications, such as HIV. Thus, women delivering at health facilities face the risk of being labeled as HIV-positive in the community. Our quantitative data revealed that women with higher perceptions of HIV-related stigma (specifically those who held negative attitudes about persons living with HIV) at baseline were subsequently less likely to deliver in a health facility with a skilled attendant, even after adjusting for other known predictors of health facility delivery (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44, 95% CI 0.22-0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings point to the urgent need for interventions to reduce HIV-related stigma, not only for improving quality of life among persons living with HIV, but also for better health outcomes among all childbearing women and their families.

Space-time confounding adjusted determinants of child HIV/TB mortality for large zero-inflated data in rural South Africa

South Africa is experiencing a major burden of HIV/TB. We used longitudinal data from the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeast South Africa over the years 2000 to 2005. A total of 187 HIV/TB deaths were observed among 16,844 children aged 1-5 years coming from 8,863 households. In this paper we used Bayesian models to assess risk factors for child HIV/TB mortality taking into account the presence of spatial correlation. Bayesian zero inflated spatiotemporal models were able to detect hidden patterns within the data. Our main finding was that maternal orphans experienced a threefold greater risk of HIV/TB death compared to those with living mothers (AHR=2.93, 95% CI[1.29;6.93]). Risk factor analyses which adjust for person, place and time provide evidence for policy makers that includes a spatial distribution of risk. Child survival is dependent on the mother's survival; hence programs that promote maternal survival are critical.

Verbal autopsy-based cause-specific mortality trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2000-2009

Background

The advent of the HIV pandemic and the more recent prevention and therapeutic interventions have resulted in extensive and rapid changes in cause-specific mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa, and there is demand for timely and accurate cause-specific mortality data to steer public health responses and to evaluate the outcome of interventions. The objective of this study is to describe cause-specific mortality trends based on verbal autopsies conducted on all deaths in a rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, over a 10-year period (2000-2009).

Methods

The study used population-based mortality data collected by a demographic surveillance system on all resident and nonresident members of 12,000 households. Cause of death was determined by verbal autopsy based on the standard INDEPTH/WHO verbal autopsy questionnaire. Cause of death was assigned by physician review and the Bayesian-based InterVA program.

Results

There were 11,281 deaths over 784,274 person-years of observation of 125,658 individuals between Jan. 1, 2000 and Dec. 31, 2009. The cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF) for the population as a whole were: HIV-related (including tuberculosis), 50%; other communicable diseases, 6%; noncommunicable lifestyle-related conditions, 15%; other noncommunicable diseases, 2%; maternal, perinatal, nutritional, and congenital causes, 1%; injury, 8%; indeterminate causes, 18%. Over the course of the 10 years of observation, the CSMF of HIV-related causes declined from a high of 56% in 2002 to a low of 39% in 2009 with the largest decline starting in 2004 following the introduction of an antiretroviral treatment program into the population. The all-cause age-standardized mortality rate (SMR) declined over the same period from a high of 174 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 165, 183) deaths per 10,000 person-years observed (PYO) in 2003 to a low of 116 (95% CI: 109, 123) in 2009. The decline in the SMR is predominantly due to a decline in the HIV-related SMR, which declined in the same period from 96 (95% CI: 89, 102) to 45 (95% CI: 40, 49) deaths per 10,000 PYO.

There was substantial agreement (79% kappa = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.69)) between physician coding and InterVA coding at the burden of disease group level.

Conclusions

Verbal autopsy based methods enabled the timely measurement of changing trends in cause-specific mortality to provide policymakers with the much-needed information to allocate resources to appropriate health interventions.

The impact of the new WHO antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in South Africa

Background

Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs.

Methods and Finding

We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years.

Conclusions

Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

Exposing misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) that are misattributed to other causes in South Africa's death registration data and to adjust for this bias.

METHODS

Deaths in the World Health Organization's mortality database were distributed among 48 mutually exclusive causes. For each cause, age- and sex-specific global death rates were compared with the average rate among people aged 65-69, 70-74 and 75-79 years to generate "relative" global death rates. Relative rates were also computed for South Africa alone. Differences between global and South African relative death rates were used to identify the causes to which deaths from HIV/AIDS were misattributed in South Africa and quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misattributed to each. These deaths were then reattributed to HIV/AIDS.

FINDINGS

In South Africa, deaths from HIV/AIDS are often misclassified as being caused by 14 other conditions. Whereas in 1996-2006 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS accounted for 2.0-2.5% of all registered deaths in South Africa, our analysis shows that the true cause-specific mortality fraction rose from 19% (uncertainty range: 7-28%) to 48% (uncertainty range: 38-50%) over that period. More than 90% of HIV/AIDS deaths were found to have been misattributed to other causes during 1996-2006.

CONCLUSION

Adjusting for cause of death misclassification, a simple procedure that can be carried out in any country, can improve death registration data and provide empirical estimates of HIV/AIDS deaths that may be useful in assessing estimates from demographic models.

Under-5 mortality due to HIV: regional levels and 1990-2009 trends

BACKGROUND

Since at least the late 1990s, HIV has been viewed as a major threat to efforts by countries to reduce under-5 mortality. Previous work has documented increased under-5 mortality due to HIV from 1990 to 1999 in Africa. The current analysis presents estimates and trends in under-5 mortality due to HIV in low- and middle-income countries by region up to 2009.

METHODS

The analyses are based on the national models of HIV and AIDS produced by country teams in coordination with UNAIDS and its partners for the years 1990-2009. These models produce a time series of estimates of HIV-related mortality as well as overall mortality in children aged <5 years.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

These analyses indicate that, in 2009, HIV accounted for roughly 2.1% (1.2-3.0%) of under-5 deaths in low- and middle-income countries and 3.6% (2.0-5.0%) in sub-Saharan Africa. The percentage of under-5 deaths due to HIV has been falling in the last decade--for example, from 2.6% (1.6-3.5%) in 2000 to 2.1% (1.2-3.0%) in 2009 in low- and middle-income countries and from 5.4% (3.3-7.3%) in 2000 to 3.6% (2.0-5.0%) in 2009 in sub-Saharan Africa. This fall in the percentage of under-5 deaths due to HIV has been driven by a combination of factors including scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes and treatment for pregnant women and children, as well as a decrease in the prevalence of HIV among pregnant women.

Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4

BACKGROUND

Previous assessments have highlighted that less than a quarter of countries are on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), which calls for a two-thirds reduction in mortality in children younger than 5 years between 1990 and 2015. In view of policy initiatives and investments made since 2000, it is important to see if there is acceleration towards the MDG 4 target. We assessed levels and trends in child mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010.

METHODS

We compiled a database of 16 174 measurements of mortality in children younger than 5 years for 187 countries from 1970 to 2009, by use of data from all available sources, including vital registration systems, summary birth histories in censuses and surveys, and complete birth histories. We used Gaussian process regression to generate estimates of the probability of death between birth and age 5 years. This is the first study that uses Gaussian process regression to estimate child mortality, and this technique has better out-of-sample predictive validity than do previous methods and captures uncertainty caused by sampling and non-sampling error across data types. Neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality was estimated from mortality in children younger than 5 years by use of the 1760 measurements from vital registration systems and complete birth histories that contained specific information about neonatal and postneonatal mortality.

FINDINGS

Worldwide mortality in children younger than 5 years has dropped from 11.9 million deaths in 1990 to 7.7 million deaths in 2010, consisting of 3.1 million neonatal deaths, 2.3 million postneonatal deaths, and 2.3 million childhood deaths (deaths in children aged 1-4 years). 33.0% of deaths in children younger than 5 years occur in south Asia and 49.6% occur in sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 1% of deaths occurring in high-income countries. Across 21 regions of the world, rates of neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality are declining. The global decline from 1990 to 2010 is 2.1% per year for neonatal mortality, 2.3% for postneonatal mortality, and 2.2% for childhood mortality. In 13 regions of the world, including all regions in sub-Saharan Africa, there is evidence of accelerating declines from 2000 to 2010 compared with 1990 to 2000. Within sub-Saharan Africa, rates of decline have increased by more than 1% in Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, and The Gambia.

INTERPRETATION

Robust measurement of mortality in children younger than 5 years shows that accelerating declines are occurring in several low-income countries. These positive developments deserve attention and might need enhanced policy attention and resources.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.