Mortality among adults transferred and lost to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a multicenter cohort study

Estimating the mortality risk correcting for high loss to follow-up among female sex workers with HIV in Durban, South Africa, 2018-2021

PURPOSE

This study assesses risk factors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and estimates mortality risk among female sex workers (FSW) with HIV in Durban, South Africa, in 2018-2021.

METHODS

We used data from the Siyaphambili trial, which evaluated strategies for improved viral suppression. FSW with HIV aged ≥ 18 years with viral load ≥ 50 copies/mL were followed up for 18 months. LTFU was defined as absence from study or intervention visits for 6 months. We traced LTFU participants by calling/in-person visit attempts to ascertain their vital status. We used Cox regression to determine risk factors of LTFU and inverse probability of tracing weights to correct mortality risk.

RESULTS

Of 777 participants, 10 (1.3%) had died and 578 (74.4%) were initially LTFU. Among those LTFU, 36.3% (210/578) were traced successfully, with 6 additional deaths ascertained. Recent physical and sexual violence, and non-viral suppression were associated with increased LTFU. The unweighted and weighted 18-month mortality risks were 2.4% (95% CI: 0.8%-3.9%) and 3.7% (95% CI: 1.8%-5.9%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LTFU is common among FSW with HIV in South Africa with additional investigation of vital status demonstrating under-ascertained mortality. These data suggest the need for comprehensively addressing risks for mortality among FSW.

Geographic variation in 5-year mortality following HIV diagnosis: implications for clinical interventions

Characterizing spatial distribution of HIV outcomes is vital for targeting interventions to areas most at risk. We performed spatial analysis to identify geographic clusters and factors associated with mortality in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We utilized Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) data, which enrolled participants August 2010-January 2013 and obtained vital status at 5.8 (IQR 5.0-6.4) years of follow-up. We mapped geocoded addresses to 2011 Census-defined small area layer (SAL) centroids, used Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic to identify mortality clusters, and compared socio-demographic factors for SALs within and outside mortality clusters. We assigned 1,143 participants living with HIV (260 [23%] of whom died during follow-up) to 677 SALs. One lower mortality cluster (n = 90, RR = 0.23, p = 0.022) was identified near a hospital outside Durban. SALs in the cluster were younger (24y vs 25y, p < 0.001); had fewer bedrooms/household (3 vs 4, p < 0.001); had more females (52% vs 51%, p = 0.013) and residents with no schooling past age 20 (4% vs 3%, p < 0.001) or no education at all (4% vs 3%, p < 0.001); had fewer residents with income >3,200 ZAR/month (5% vs 9%, p < 0.001); and had reduced access to piped water (p < 0.001), refuse disposal (p < 0.001), and toilets (p < 0.001). Targeted interventions may improve outcomes in areas with similar characteristics.

Comparing effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy between peri-urban and rural clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Viral suppression (VS) is the hallmark of successful antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. We sought to compare clinic retention, virological outcomes, drug resistance and mortality between peri-urban and rural settings in South Africa after first-line ART.

METHODS

Beginning in July 2014, 1000 (500 peri-urban and 500 rural) ART-naïve patients with HIV were enrolled and managed according to local standard of care. Clinic retention, virological suppression, virological failure (VF), genotypic drug resistance and mortality were assessed. The definition of VS was a viral load ≤1000 copies/ml. Time to event analyses were stratified by site, median age and gender. Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated and graphed with log-rank modelling to compare curves.

RESULTS

Based on 2741 patient-years of follow-up, retention and mortality did not differ between sites. Among all 1000 participants, 47%, 84% and 91% had achieved VS by 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively, which was observed earlier in the peri-urban site. At both sites, men aged < 32 years had the highest proportion of VF (15.5%), while women aged > 32 years had the lowest, at 7.1% (p = 0.018). Among 55 genotypes, 42 (76.4%) had at one or more resistance mutations, which did not differ by site. K103N (59%) and M184V (52%) were the most common mutations, followed by V106M and K65R (31% each). Overall, death was infrequent (< 4%).

CONCLUSIONS

No significant differences in treatment outcomes between peri-urban and rural clinics were observed. In both settings, young men were especially susceptible to clinic attrition and VF. More effective adherence support for this important demographic group is needed to achieve UNAIDS targets.

Investigating clinic transfers among HIV patients considered lost to follow-up to improve understanding of the HIV care cascade: Findings from a cohort study in rural north-eastern South Africa

Investigating clinical transfers of HIV patients is important for accurate estimates of retention and informing interventions to support patients. We investigate transfers for adults reported as lost to follow-up (LTFU) from eight HIV care facilities in the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS), South Africa. Using linked clinic and HDSS records, outcomes of adults more than 90 days late for their last scheduled clinic visit were determined through clinic and routine tracing record reviews, HDSS data, and supplementary tracing. Factors associated with transferring to another clinic were determined through Cox regression models. Transfers were graphically and geospatially visualised. Transfers were more common for women, patients living further from the clinic, and patients with higher baseline CD4 cell counts. Transfers to clinics within the HDSS were more likely to be undocumented and were significantly more likely for women pregnant at ART initiation. Transfers outside the HDSS clustered around economic hubs. Patients transferring to health facilities within the HDSS may be shopping for better care, whereas those who transfer out of the HDSS may be migrating for work. Treatment programmes should facilitate transfer processes for patients, ensure continuity of care among those migrating, and improve tracking of undocumented transfers.

HIV Viral Suppression among People Living with HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy in Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa Provinces of Democratic Republic of Congo

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and less-than-optimal care of people living with HIV (PLHIV) continue to challenge public health and clinical care organizations in the communities that are most impacted by HIV. In the era of evidence-based public health, it is imperative to monitor viral load (VL) in PLHIV according to global and national guidelines and assess the factors associated with variation in VL levels. Purpose: This study had two objectives—(a) to describe the levels of HIV VL in persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and (b) to analyze the significance of variation in VL by patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics, outcomes of HIV care, and geographic characteristics of HIV care facilities. Methods: The study population for this quantitative study was 49,460 PLHIV in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) receiving ART from 241 CDC-funded HIV/AIDS clinics in the Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa provinces of the DRC. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, including Tamhane’s T2 test for pairwise comparisons using de-identified data on all patients enrolled in the system by the time the data were extracted for this study by the HIV programs in May 2019. Results: The VL was undetectable (<40 copies/mL) for 56.4% of the patients and 24.7% had VL between 40 copies/mL and less than 1000 copies per mL, indicating that overall, 81% had VL < 1000 and were virologically suppressed. The remaining 19% had a VL of 1000 copies/mL or higher. The mean VL was significantly (p < 0.001) higher for males than for females (32,446 copies/mL vs. 20,786, respectively), persons <15 years of age compared to persons of ages ≥ 15 years at the time of starting ART (45,753 vs. 21,457, respectively), patients who died (125,086 vs. 22,090), those who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) (69,882 vs. 20,018), those with tuberculosis (TB) co-infection (64,383 vs. 24,090), and those who received care from urban clinics (mean VL = 25,236) compared to rural (mean VL = 3291) or semi-rural (mean VL = 26,180) clinics compared to urban. WHO clinical stages and duration on ART were not statistically significant at p ≤ 0.05 in this cohort. Conclusions: The VL was >1000 copies/mL for 19% of PLHIV receiving ART, indicating that these CDC-funded clinics and programs in the Haut-Katanga and Kinshasa provinces of DRC have more work to do. Strategically designed innovations in services are desirable, with customized approaches targeting PLHIV who are younger, male, those LTFU, with HIV/TB co-infection, and those receiving care from urban clinics.

Global estimates of viral suppression in children and adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy adjusted for missing viral load measurements: a multiregional, retrospective cohort study in 31 countries

BACKGROUND

As countries move towards the UNAIDS's 95-95-95 targets and with strong evidence that undetectable equals untransmittable, it is increasingly important to assess whether those with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) achieve viral suppression. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents and adults with viral suppression at 1, 2, and 3 years after initiating ART.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, seven regional cohorts from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium contributed data from individuals initiating ART between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019, at 148 sites in 31 countries with annual viral load monitoring. Only people with HIV who started ART after the time a site started routine viral load monitoring were included. Data up to March 31, 2020, were analysed. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents (aged <18 years at ART initiation) and adults (aged ≥18 years at ART initiation) with viral suppression (viral load <1000 copies per mL) at 1, 2, and 3 years after ART initiation using an intention-to-treat approach and an adjusted approach that accounted for missing viral load measurements.

FINDINGS

21 594 children and adolescents (11 812 [55%] female, 9782 [45%] male) from 106 sites in 22 countries and 255 662 adults (163 831 [64%] female, 91 831 [36%] male) from 143 sites in 30 countries were included. Using the intention-to-treat approach, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 7303 (36%) of 20 478 at 1 year, 5709 (30%) of 19 135 at 2 years, and 4287 (24%) of 17 589 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 106 541 (44%) of 240 600 at 1 year, 79 141 (36%) of 220 925 at 2 years, and 57 970 (29%) of 201 124 at 3 years after ART initiation. After adjusting for missing viral load measurements among those who transferred, were lost to follow-up, or who were in follow-up without viral load testing, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 12 048 (64% [plausible range 43-81]) of 18 835 at 1 year, 10 796 (62% [41-77]) of 17 553 at 2 years, and 9177 (59% [38-91]) of 15 667 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 176 964 (79% [53-80]) of 225 418 at 1 year, 145 552 (72% [48-79]) of 201 238 at 2 years, and 115 260 (65% [43-69]) of 178 458 at 3 years after ART initiation.

INTERPRETATION

Although adults with HIV are approaching the global target of 95% viral suppression, progress among children and adolescents is much slower. Substantial efforts are still needed to reach the viral suppression target for children and adolescents.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Changing contextual factors from baseline to 9-months post-HIV diagnosis predict 5-year mortality in Durban, South Africa

Changes in an individual's contextual factors following HIV diagnosis may influence long-term outcomes. We evaluated how changes to contextual factors between HIV diagnosis and 9-month follow-up predict 5-year mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa enrolled in the Sizanani Trial (NCT01188941). We used random survival forests to identify 9-month variables and changes from baseline predictive of time to mortality. We incorporated these into a Cox proportional hazards model including age, sex, and starting ART by 9 months a priori, 9-month social support and competing needs, and changes in mental health between baseline and 9 months. Among 1,154 participants with South African ID numbers, 900 (78%) had baseline and 9-month data available of whom 109 (12%) died after 9-month follow-up. Those who reported less social support at 9 months had a 16% higher risk of mortality. Participants who went without basic needs or healthcare at 9 months had a 2.6 times higher hazard of death compared to participants who did not. Low social support and competing needs at 9-month follow-up substantially increase long-term mortality risk. Reassessing contextual factors during follow-up and targeting interventions to increase social support and affordability of care may reduce long-term mortality for HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.

Factors Associated with Loss to Follow-Up Among Patients Receiving HIV Treatment in Nairobi, Kenya

We investigated factors associated with loss to follow-up (LTFU) in 24 urban health facilities in Nairobi, Kenya. We conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely collected data to assess factors associated with LTFU in the period October 1, 2016, to June 30, 2017. LTFU was defined as no antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill for ≥90 days and no documentation of transfer, death, or treatment cessation in the patient chart, and if no lapse of ≥90 days between ART refills, patients were considered retained in care. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) for LTFU. Our analysis included 633 individuals who were LTFU and 13,098 individuals retained in care. Most participants (69.6%) were women, and median age was 33.0 years (interquartile range, 27.2-38.3 years). Median ART duration was shorter among those LTFU (0.4 years) than retained patients (2.5 years, p < .0001). Being male [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.63, p = .02], transferring into facilities while already receiving ART (aOR 11.58; 95% CI: 8.23-16.29, p < .0001), and having a shorter ART duration (<6 months) were associated with increased odds of LTFU. Patients who transferred into a facility while already receiving ART had the highest adjusted odds of being LTFU compared with those retained in care. In this urban and highly mobile population, transferring into facilities while already receiving ART was strongly associated with LTFU. Focusing programming efforts on patients transferring between urban clinics to identify reasons for transfer and potential barriers to treatment adherence could help improve patient outcomes. Supplementary case management and support may be needed to promote a seamless transition and ensure uninterrupted engagement in HIV care and treatment.

Outcomes After Being Lost to Follow-up Differ for Pregnant and Postpartum Women When Compared With the General HIV Treatment Population in Rural South Africa

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Undetermined attrition prohibits full understanding of the coverage and effectiveness of HIV programs. Outcomes following loss to follow-up (LTFU) among antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may differ according to their reasons for ART initiation.

Mortality Rate in a Cohort of People Living With HIV in Rural Tanzania After Accounting for Unseen Deaths Among Those Lost to Follow-up

Mortality assessment in cohorts with high numbers of persons lost to follow-up (LTFU) is challenging in settings with limited civil registration systems. We aimed to assess mortality in a clinical cohort (the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO)) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons in rural Tanzania, accounting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU. We included adults enrolled in 2005-2015 and traced a nonrandom sample of those LTFU. We estimated mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods 1) with routinely captured data (method A), 2) crudely incorporating tracing data (method B), 3) weighting using tracing data to crudely correct for unobserved deaths among participants LTFU (method C), and 4) weighting using tracing data accounting for participant characteristics (method D). We investigated associated factors using proportional hazards models. Among 7,460 adults, 646 (9%) died, 883 (12%) transferred to other clinics, and 2,911 (39%) were LTFU. Of 2,010 (69%) traced participants, 325 (16%) were found: 131 (40%) had died and 130 (40%) had transferred. Five-year mortality estimates derived using the 4 methods were 13.1% (A), 16.2% (B), 36.8% (C), and 35.1% (D), respectively. Higher mortality was associated with male sex, referral as a hospital inpatient, living close to the index clinic, lower body mass index, more advanced World Health Organization HIV clinical stage, lower CD4 cell count, and less time since initiation of antiretroviral therapy. Adjusting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU approximately doubled the 5-year mortality estimates. Our approach is applicable to other cohort studies adopting targeted tracing.

Identifying and predicting longitudinal trajectories of care for people newly diagnosed with HIV in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Predicting long-term care trajectories at the time of HIV diagnosis may allow targeted interventions. Our objective was to uncover distinct CD4-based trajectories and determine baseline demographic, clinical, and contextual factors associated with trajectory membership.

METHODS

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941), in which adults were enrolled prior to HIV testing in Durban, South Africa from August 2010-January 2013. We ascertained CD4 counts from the National Health Laboratory Service over 5y follow-up. We used group-based statistical modeling to identify groups with similar CD4 count trajectories and Bayesian information criteria to determine distinct CD4 trajectories. We evaluated baseline factors that predict membership in specific trajectories using multinomial logistic regression. We examined calendar year of participant enrollment, age, gender, cohabitation, TB positivity, self-identified barriers to care, and ART initiation within 3 months of diagnosis.

RESULTS

688 participants had longitudinal data available. Group-based trajectory modeling identified four distinct trajectories: one with consistently low CD4 counts (21%), one with low CD4 counts that increased over time (22%), one with moderate CD4 counts that remained stable (41%), and one with high CD4 counts that increased over time (16%). Those with higher CD4 counts at diagnosis were younger, less likely to have TB, and less likely to identify barriers to care. Those in the least favorable trajectory (consistently low CD4 count) were least likely to start ART within 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of people newly-diagnosed with HIV presented with low CD4 counts that failed to rise over time. Less than 40% were in a trajectory characterized by increasing CD4 counts. Patients in more favorable trajectories were younger, less likely to have TB, and less likely to report barriers to healthcare. Better understanding barriers to early care engagement and ART initiation will be necessary to improve long-term clinical outcomes.

Re-engagement in care of people living with HIV lost to follow-up after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Mali: Who returns to care?

Objectives

We assessed cumulative incidence rates of and factors associated with re-engagement in HIV care for PLHIV lost to follow-up in Mali.

Methods

HIV-1-infected individuals lost to follow-up before 31/12/2013, ≥ 18 years old, who started ART from 2006 to 2012 at one of 16 care centres were considered. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as an interruption of ≥ 6 months during follow-up. The re-engagement in care in PLHIV lost to follow-up before 31/12/2013 was defined as having at least one clinical visit after LTFU. The cumulative incidence rates of re-engagement in care was estimated by Kaplan-Meier and its predictive factors were assessed using Cox models. Socio-demographic characteristics, clinical and immune status, period, region, centre expertise level, and distance from home at the start of ART plus a combined variable of duration of ART until LTFU and 12-month change in CD4 count were assessed. Multiple imputation was used to deal with missing data.

Results

We included 3,650 PLHIV lost to follow-up before December 2013, starting ART in nine outpatient clinics and seven hospitals (5+2 in Bamako and 4+5 in other regions): 35% male, median (IQR) age 35 (29–43), and duration of ART until LTFU 11 months (5–22). Among these PLHIV, 1,975 (54%) were definitively LTFU and 1,675 (46%) subsequently returned to care. The cumulative incidence rates of re-engagement in care rose from 39.0% at one year to 47.0% at three years after LTFU. Predictors of re-engagement in care were starting ART with WHO stage 1–2 and CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/μL, being treated for ≥ 12 months with CD4 count gain ≥ 50 cells/μL, or being followed in Bamako. People followed at regional hospitals or outpatient clinics ≥ 5 km away, or being treated for ≥ 12 months with CD4 count gain < 50 cells/μL were less likely to return to care.

Conclusions

Starting ART with a higher CD4 count, better gain in CD4 count, and being followed either in Bamako or close to home in the regions were associated with re-engagement in care.

Same-day antiretroviral therapy is associated with increased loss to follow-up in South African public health facilities: a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with HIV

INTRODUCTION

South Africa introduced Universal Test and Treat in 2016 including antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on the same-day as HIV diagnosis. Our study sought to evaluate the impact of same-day ART initiation on loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality comparing with patients who initiated ART after their HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

We conducted a file review of patients with a HIV diagnosis and ART start date on file between September 2016 and May 2018 in six high HIV burden districts. Our primary outcome was LTFU (>90 days from the last clinical visit or drug pick-up until database closure 31 July 2018). The secondary outcome was mortality after ART initiation. Time to outcome was assessed comparing same-day vs. one to seven, eight to twenty-one and ≥ twenty-two days to ART initiation using Kaplan-Meier estimators stratified by sex. We investigated predictors using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for a priori characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall, 92,609 ART patients contributed 43,922 person-years from ART initiation, with a median follow-up time of 246 days (IQR = 112 to 455). Of these patients, 33,399 (36%) initiated ART on the same-day as their HIV diagnosis date and had a median follow-up time of 174 days (IQR = 85 to 349). Same-day patients were predominantly non-pregnant females (56%) and aged 25 to 34 years (40%). Same-day ART initiation increased from 2.8% in September 2016 to 7.1% in April 2018. In same-day patients, 33% (n = 11,114) were classified as LTFU with a median time of 55 days (IQR = 1 to 185), compared to 371 mean days (IQR = 161 to 560) in patients who initiated ≥22 days after diagnosis. A similar proportion of LTFU was observed for patients who initiated later: 31% 1 to 21 day and 33% ≥22 day. Same-day ART patients had an increased risk of LTFU vs. ≥1 day (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.24 to 1.33) adjusting for covariates. Although all-cause mortality was slightly lower in same-day patients (0.9%) vs. >1 day (1.4%; aHR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.72 to 1.05) adjusting for covariates. Men had highest risk of mortality and LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

Same-day ART increased the risk of LTFU, but same-day patients experienced slightly lower mortality. Same-day patients may require additional counselling and interventions to improve retention. Additional research is needed on targeted interventions, including differentiated care, to reduce LTFU in patients initiating ART same-day.

Using national laboratory data to assess cumulative frequency of linkage after transfer to community-based HIV clinics in South Africa

Introduction

Changes to the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding have led to closures of non‐governmental HIV clinics with patient transfers to government‐funded clinics. We sought to determine the success of transfers in South Africa using a national data source.

Methods

All adults (≥18 years) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who visited a single PEPFAR‐funded hospital‐based HIV clinic in Durban, South Africa from March to June 2012 were transferred to community‐based clinics. Previously, we matched patient records from the hospital‐based HIV clinic with National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS) Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) data to estimate the proportion of patients with a CD4 count or viral load (VL) in the CDW during the year before transfer. As a proxy for retention in care, in this study we evaluated whether patients had a CD4 count or VL at another facility within approximately three years of transfer. Patients referred to a private doctor at transfer were excluded from the analysis. We assessed predictors (age, sex, CD4 count, VL status, ART duration and location of future care) of not having post‐transfer laboratory data using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Of the 3893 patients referred to a government facility at transfer, 41% were male and median age was 39 years (IQR 34 to 46). There was a post‐transfer CD4 count or VL from another facility for 23% of these individuals within six months, 44% within one year, 57% within two years and 61% within approximately three years. Male sex (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.31) and shorter duration on ART (<3 months, aHR 3.80, 95% CI 2.77 to 5.21; three months to one year, aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.51, each compared with >1 year) were associated with not having a post‐transfer record.

Conclusions

Using data from the NHLS CDW, 61% of patients had evidence of a post‐transfer laboratory record at another facility within approximately three years after closure of a large South African HIV clinic. Males and those with shorter time on ART prior to transfer were at highest risk for lacking follow‐up laboratory data. As patients transfer care, national data sources can be used to evaluate long‐term patient care trajectories.

Transfer of primary care patients receiving chronic care: the next step in the continuum of care

The burden of chronic conditions is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries. Chronic conditions require long-term and continuous care, including for patients transferring between facilities. Patient transfer is particularly important in the context of health service decentralization, which has led to increasing numbers of primary care facilities at which patients can access care, and high levels of migration, which suggest that patients might require care at multiple facilities. This article provides a critical review of existing evidence regarding transfer of stable patients receiving primary care for chronic conditions. Patient transfer has received limited consideration in people living with HIV, with growing concern that patients who transfer are at risk of poor outcomes; this appears similar for people with TB, although studies are few. There are minimal data on transfer of patients with non-communicable diseases, including diabetes. Patient transfer for chronic conditions has thus received surprisingly little attention from researchers; considering the potential risks, more research is urgently required regarding reasons for and outcomes of transfers, transfer processes and interventions to optimize transfers, for different chronic conditions. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of health systems to facilitate successful transfers, and this issue requires increased attention from researchers and policy-makers.

Retention and predictors of attrition among patients who started antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe's national antiretroviral therapy programme between 2012 and 2015

BACKGROUND

The last evaluation to assess outcomes for patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) through the Zimbabwe public sector was conducted in 2011, covering the 2007-2010 cohorts. The reported retention at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months were 90.7%, 78.1%, 68.8% and 64.4%, respectively. We report findings of a follow-up evaluation for the 2012-2015 cohorts to assess the implementation and impact of recommendations from this prior evaluation.

METHODS

A nationwide retrospective study was conducted in 2016. Multi-stage proportional sampling was used to select health facilities and study participants records. The data extracted from patient manual records included demographic, baseline clinical characteristics and patient outcomes (active on treatment, died, transferred out, stopped ART and lost to follow-up (LTFU)) at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. The data were analysed using Stata/IC 14.2. Retention was estimated using survival analysis. The predictors associated with attrition were determined using a multivariate Cox regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 3,810 participants were recruited in the study. The median age in years was 35 (IQR: 28-42). Overall, retention increased to 92.4% (p-value = 0.060), 86.5% (p-value<0.001), 79.2% (p-value<0.001) and 74.4% (p-value<0.001) at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months respectively. LTFU accounted for 98% of attrition. Being an adolescent or a young adult (15-24 years) (vs adult;1.41; 95% CI:1.14-1.74), children (<15years) (vs adults; aHR 0.64; 95% CI:0.46-0.91), receiving care at primary health care facility (vs central and provincial facility; aHR 1.23; 95% CI:1.01-1.49), having initiated ART between 2014-2015 (vs 2012-2013; aHR1.45; 95%CI:1.24-1.69), having WHO Stage IV (vs Stage I-III; aHR2.06; 95%CI:1.51-2.81) and impaired functional status (vs normal status; aHR1.25; 95%CI:1.04-1.49) predicted attrition.

CONCLUSION

The overall retention was higher in comparison to the previous 2007-2010 evaluation. Further studies to understand why attrition was found to be higher at primary health care facilities are warranted. Implementation of strategies for managing patients with advanced HIV disease, differentiated care for adolescents and young adults and tracking of LTFU clients should be prioritised to further improve retention.

Loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy clinics: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies in South Africa from 2011 to 2015

Background

South Africa has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. To optimise programme outcomes, it is critical that patients are retained in care and that retention is accurately measured.

Objectives

To identify all studies published in South Africa from 2011 to 2015 that used loss to follow-up (LTFU) as an indicator or outcome to describe the variation in definitions and to estimate the proportion of patients lost to care across studies.

Method

All studies published between 01 January 2011 and October 2015 that included loss to follow-up or default from ART care in a South African cohort were included by use of a broad search strategy across multiple databases. To be included, the cohort had to include any patient ART data, including follow-up time, from 01 January 2010. Two authors, working independently, extracted data and assessed risk of bias from all manuscripts. Meta-analysis was performed for studies stratified by the same loss to follow-up definition.

Results

Forty-eight adult, 15 paediatric and 4 pregnant cohorts were included. Median cohort size was 3737; follow-up time ranged from 9 weeks to 5 years. Meta-analysis did not reveal an important difference in LTFU estimates in adult cohorts at 1 year between loss to follow-up defined as 3 months (11.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 10.7% – 11.2%) compared with 6 months (12.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 11.8% – 12.2%). Only two cohorts reported reliable LTFU estimates at 5 years: this was 25.1% (95% CI 24.8% – 25.4%).

Conclusion

South Africa should standardise a LTFU definition. This would aid in monitoring and evaluation of ART programmes, with the broader goal of improving patient outcomes.

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa

Background

Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health).

Results

Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60.

Conclusions

Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4373-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are there differences in HIV retention in care between female and male patients in Indonesia? A multi-state analysis of a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about HIV treatment outcomes in Indonesia, which has one of the most rapidly growing HIV epidemics worldwide.

METHODS

We examined possible differences in loss to follow-up (LTFU) and survival between HIV-infected females and males over a 7-year period in an HIV clinic in Bandung, West Java. Data imputation was performed on missing covariates and a multi-state Cox regression was used to investigate the effects of sex and other covariates on patient transitions among four states: (1) clinic enrollment with HIV, (2) initiation/continuation/re-initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), (3) LTFU, and (4) death.

RESULTS

We followed 3215 patients (33% females), for a total of 8430 person-years. ART was used by 59% of patients at some point. One-year retention was 73% for females and 77% for males (p = 0.06). One-year survival was 98% for both females and males (p = 0.15). Females experienced a higher relative hazard to transition from HIV to LTFU (adjusted hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.45), but this decreased after adjustments for clinical variables (aHR 0.94; 95% CI 0.79-1.11). Similarly, a lower relative hazard in females to transition from ART to death (aHR 0.59; 95% CI 0.35-0.99) decreased after adjustments for demographic variables.

CONCLUSION

This Indonesian cohort has low ART uptake and poor overall pre- and post-ART retention. Female-male differences in survival and retention were gone after adjusting for clinical and sociodemographic factors such as CD4 count and education level. Efforts should be made to improve retention among patients with lower education.

Long-term loss to follow-up in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD)

OBJECTIVES

With earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, time spent in HIV care is expected to increase. We aimed to investigate loss to follow-up (LTFU) in Asian patients who remained in care 5 years after ART initiation.

METHODS

Long-term LTFU was defined as LTFU occurring after 5 years on ART. LTFU was defined as (1) patients not seen in the previous 12 months; and (2) patients not seen in the previous 6 months. Factors associated with LTFU were analysed using competing risk regression.

RESULTS

Under the 12-month definition, the LTFU rate was 2.0 per 100 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.2 among 4889 patients included in the study. LTFU was associated with age > 50 years [sub-hazard ratio (SHR) 1.64; 95% CI 1.17-2.31] compared with 31-40 years, viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL (SHR 1.86; 95% CI 1.16-2.97) compared with viral load < 1000 copies/mL, and hepatitis C coinfection (SHR 1.48; 95% CI 1.06-2.05). LTFU was less likely to occur in females, in individuals with higher CD4 counts, in those with self-reported adherence ≥ 95%, and in those living in high-income countries. The 6-month LTFU definition produced an incidence rate of 3.2 per 100 PY (95% CI 2.9-3.4 and had similar associations but with greater risks of LTFU for ART initiation in later years (2006-2009: SHR 2.38; 95% CI 1.93-2.94; and 2010-2011: SHR 4.26; 95% CI 3.17-5.73) compared with 2003-2005.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term LTFU rate in our cohort was low, with older age being associated with LTFU. The increased risk of LTFU with later years of ART initiation in the 6-month analysis, but not the 12-month analysis, implies that there was a possible move towards longer HIV clinic scheduling in Asia.

Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up after antiretroviral therapy initiation in rural north-eastern South Africa

Objective

The vital status of patients lost to follow‐up often remains unknown in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in sub‐Saharan Africa because medical records are no longer updated once the patient disengages from care. Thus, we aimed to assess the outcomes of patients lost to follow‐up after ART initiation in north‐eastern South Africa.

Methods

Using data from a rural area in north‐eastern South Africa, we estimated the cumulative incidence of patient outcomes (i) after treatment initiation using clinical records, and (ii) after loss to follow‐up (LTFU) using data from clients that have been individually linked to Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) database. Aside from LTFU, we considered mortality, re‐engagement and migration out of the study site. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates of these patient outcomes.

Results

Between April 2014 and July 2017, 3700 patients initiated ART and contributed a total of 6818 person‐years of follow‐up time. Three years after ART initiation, clinical record‐based estimates of LTFU, mortality and documented transfers were 41.0% (95% CI: 38.5–43.4%), 1.9% (95% CI 1.0–3.2%) and 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.9%), respectively. Among those who were LTFU, the cumulative incidence of re‐engagement, out‐migration and mortality at 3 years were 38.1% (95% CI 33.1–43.0%), 49.4% (95% CI 43.1–55.3%) and 4.7% (95% CI 3.5–6.2%), respectively. Pregnant or breastfeeding women, foreigners and those who initiated ART most recently were at an increased risk of LTFU.

Conclusion

LTFU among patients starting ART in north‐eastern South Africa is relatively high and has increased in recent years as more asymptomatic patients have initiated treatment. Even though this tendency is of concern in light of the prevention of onwards transmission, we also found that re‐engagement in care is common and mortality among persons LTFU relatively low.

Predictors of Mortality among Patients Lost to Follow up Antiretroviral Therapy

Introduction: The death of HIV/AIDS patients after receiving therapy in Bali is the seventh highest percentage of deaths in Indonesia. LTFU increases the risk of death in PLHA, given the saturation of people with HIV taking medication. The level of consistency in the treatment is very important to maintain the resilience and quality of life of people living with HIV. This study aims to determine the incidence rate, median time and predictors of death occurring in LTFU patients as seen from their sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.Methods: This study used an analytical longitudinal approach with retrospective secondary data analysis in a cohort of HIV-positive patients receiving ARV therapy at the Buleleng District Hospital in the period 2006-2015. The study used the survival analysis available within the STATA SE 12 softwareResults: The result showed that the incidence rate of death in LTFU patients was 65.9 per 100 persons, with the median time occurrence of 0.2 years (2.53 months). The NNRTI-class antiretroviral evapirens agents were shown to increase the risk of incidence of death in LTFU patients 3.92 times greater than the nevirapine group (HR 3.92; p = 0.007 (CI 1.46-10.51). Each 1 kg increase in body weight decreased the risk of death in LTFU patients by 6% (HR 0.94; p = 0.035 (CI 0.89-0.99).Conclusion: An evaluation and the monitoring of patient tracking with LTFU should be undertaken to improve sustainability. Furthermore, an observation of the LTFU patient's final condition with primary data and qualitative research needs to be done so then it can explore more deeply the reasons behind LTFU.

Integration of postpartum healthcare services for HIV-infected women and their infants in South Africa: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

As the number of HIV-infected women initiating lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy increases globally, concerns have emerged regarding low levels of retention in HIV services and suboptimal adherence to ART during the postpartum period. We examined the impact of integrating postpartum ART for HIV+ mothers alongside infant follow-up within maternal and child health (MCH) services in Cape Town, South Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a randomised trial among HIV+ postpartum women aged ≥18 years who initiated ART during pregnancy in the local antenatal care clinic and were breastfeeding when screened before 6 weeks postpartum. We compared an integrated postnatal service among mothers and their infants (the MCH-ART intervention) to the local standard of care (control)-immediate postnatal referral of HIV+ women on ART to general adult ART services and their infants to separate routine infant follow-up. Evaluation data were collected through medical records and trial measurement visits scheduled and located separately from healthcare services involved in either arm. The primary trial outcome was a composite endpoint of women's retention in ART care and viral suppression (VS) (viral load < 50 copies/ml) at 12 months postpartum; secondary outcomes included duration of any and exclusive breastfeeding, mother-to-child HIV transmission, and infant mortality. Between 5 June 2013 and 10 December 2014, a total of 471 mother-infant pairs were enrolled and randomised (mean age, 28.6 years; 18% nulliparous; 57% newly diagnosed with HIV in pregnancy; median duration of ART use at randomisation, 18 weeks). Among 411 women (87%) with primary endpoint data available, 77% of women (n = 155) randomised to the MCH-ART intervention achieved the primary composite outcome of retention in ART services with VS at 12 months postpartum, compared to 56% of women (n = 117) randomised to the control arm (absolute risk difference, 0.21; 95% CI: 0.12-0.30; p < 0.001). The findings for improved retention in care and VS among women in the MCH-ART intervention arm were consistent across subgroups of participants according to demographic and clinical characteristics. The median durations of any breastfeeding and exclusive breastfeeding were longer in women randomised to the intervention versus control arm (6.9 versus 3.0 months, p = 0.006, and 3.0 versus 1.4 months, p < 0.001, respectively). For the infants, overall HIV-free survival through 12 months of age was 97%: mother-to-child HIV transmission was 1.2% overall (n = 4 and n = 1 transmissions in the intervention and control arms, respectively), and infant mortality was 1.9% (n = 6 and n = 3 deaths in the intervention and control arms, respectively), and these outcomes were similar by trial arm. Interpretation of these findings should be qualified by the location of this study in a single urban area as well as the self-reported nature of breastfeeding outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that integrating ART services into the MCH platform during the postnatal period was a simple and effective intervention, and this should be considered for improving maternal and child outcomes in the context of HIV.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01933477.

HIV Viral Load Suppression in Adults and Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy-Results From the IeDEA Collaboration

BACKGROUND

Having 90% of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and achieving an undetectable viral load (VL) is 1 of the 90:90:90 by 2020 targets. In this global analysis, we investigated the proportions of adult and paediatric patients with VL suppression in the first 3 years after ART initiation.

METHODS

Patients from the IeDEA cohorts who initiated ART between 2010 and 2014 were included. Proportions with VL suppression (<1000 copies/mL) were estimated using (1) strict intention to treat (ITT)-loss to follow-up (LTFU) and dead patients counted as having detectable VL; and (2) modified ITT-LTFU and dead patients were excluded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of viral suppression at 1 year after ART initiation using modified ITT.

RESULTS

A total of 35,561 adults from 38 sites/16 countries and 2601 children from 18 sites/6 countries were included. When comparing strict with modified ITT methods, the proportion achieving VL suppression at 3 years from ART initiation changed from 45.1% to 90.2% in adults, and 60.6% to 80.4% in children. In adults, older age, higher CD4 count pre-ART, and homosexual/bisexual HIV exposure were associated with VL suppression. In children, older age and higher CD4 percentage pre-ART showed significant associations with VL suppression.

CONCLUSIONS

Large increases in the proportion of VL suppression in adults were observed when we excluded those who were LTFU or had died. The increases were less pronounced in children. Greater emphasis should be made to minimize LTFU and maximize patient retention in HIV-infected patients of all age groups.

Retention Throughout the HIV Care and Treatment Cascade: From Diagnosis to Antiretroviral Treatment of Adults and Children Living with HIV-Haiti, 1985-2015

Monitoring retention of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the HIV care and treatment cascade is essential to guide program strategy and evaluate progress toward globally-endorsed 90–90–90 targets (i.e., 90% of PLHIV diagnosed, 81% on sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 73% virally suppressed). We describe national retention from diagnosis throughout the cascade for patients receiving HIV services in Haiti during 1985–2015, with a focus on those receiving HIV services during 2008–2015. Among the 266,256 newly diagnosed PLHIV during 1985–2015, 49% were linked-to-care, 30% started ART, and 18% were retained on ART by the time of database closure. Similarly, among the 192,187 newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients during 2008–2015, 50% were linked to care, 31% started ART, and 19% were retained on ART by the time of database closure. Most patients (90–92%) at all cascade steps were adults (≥ 15 years old), among whom the majority (60–61%) were female. During 2008–2015, outcomes varied significantly across 42 administrative districts (arrondissements) of residence; cumulative linkage-to-care ranged from 23% to 69%, cumulative ART initiation among care enrollees ranged from 2% to 80%, and cumulative ART retention among ART enrollees ranged from 30% to 88%. Compared with adults, children had lower cumulative incidence of ART initiation among care enrollees (64% versus 47%) and lower cumulative retention among ART enrollees (64% versus 50%). Cumulative linkage-to-care was low and should be prioritized for improvement. Variations in outcomes by arrondissement and between adults and children require further investigation and programmatic response.

Long-term Outcome of Antiretroviral Treatment in Patients With and Without Concomitant Tuberculosis Receiving Health Center-Based Care-Results From a Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In order to increase treatment coverage, antiretroviral treatment (ART) is provided through primary health care in low-income high-burden countries, where tuberculosis (TB) co-infection is common. We investigated the long-term outcome of health center-based ART, with regard to concomitant TB.

Methods

ART-naïve adults were included in a prospective cohort at Ethiopian health centers and followed for up to 4 years after starting ART. All participants were investigated for active TB at inclusion. The primary study outcomes were the impact of concomitant TB on all-cause mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and lack of virological suppression (VS). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional hazards models with multivariate adjustments were used.

Results

In total, 141/729 (19%) subjects had concomitant TB, 85% with bacteriological confirmation (median CD4 count TB, 169 cells/mm³; IQR, 99-265; non-TB, 194 cells/mm³; IQR, 122-275). During follow-up (median, 2.5 years), 60 (8%) died and 58 (8%) were LTFU. After ≥6 months of ART, 131/630 (21%) had lack of VS. Concomitant TB did not influence the rates of death, LTFU, or VS. Male gender and malnutrition were associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes. Regardless of TB co-infection status, even after 3 years of ART, two-thirds of participants had CD4 counts below 500 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

Concomitant TB did not impact treatment outcomes in adults investigated for active TB before starting ART at Ethiopian health centers. However, one-third of patients had unsatisfactory long-term treatment outcomes and immunologic recovery was slow, illustrating the need for new interventions to optimize ART programs.

Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes Among HIV/TB-Coinfected Children in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Network

INTRODUCTION

Management of tuberculosis (TB) is challenging in HIV/TB-coinfected children. The World Health Organization recommends nucleic acid amplification tests for TB diagnosis, a 4-drug regimen including ethambutol during intensive phase (IP) of treatment, and initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis. We investigated TB treatment outcomes by diagnostic modality, IP regimen, and ART status.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among HIV/TB-coinfected children enrolled at the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS treatment sites from 2012 to 2014. We modeled TB outcome using multivariable logistic regression including diagnostic modality, IP regimen, and ART status.

RESULTS

Among the 386 HIV-infected children diagnosed with TB, 20% had microbiologic confirmation of TB, and 20% had unfavorable TB outcomes. During IP, 78% were treated with a 4-drug regimen. Thirty-one percent were receiving ART at the time of TB diagnosis, and 32% were started on ART within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis. Incidence of ART initiation within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis was higher for those with favorable TB outcomes (64%) compared with those with unfavorable outcomes (40%) (P = 0.04). Neither diagnostic modality (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 3.65) nor IP regimen (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 1.80) was associated with TB outcome.

DISCUSSION

In this multinational study of HIV/TB-coinfected children, many were not managed as per World Health Organization guidelines. Children with favorable TB outcomes initiated ART sooner than children with unfavorable outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of early ART for children with HIV/TB coinfection, and reinforce the need for implementation research to improve pediatric TB management.

Barriers to Care and 1-Year Mortality Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-Infected People in Durban, South Africa

Background:

Prompt entry into HIV care is often hindered by personal and structural barriers. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of self-perceived barriers to health care on 1-year mortality among newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods:

Before HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites, adults (≥18 years) were surveyed regarding perceived barriers to care including (1) service delivery, (2) financial, (3) personal health perception, (4) logistical, and (5) structural. We assessed deaths via phone calls and the South African National Population Register. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to determine the association between number of perceived barriers and death within 1 year.

Results:

One thousand eight hundred ninety-nine HIV-infected participants enrolled. Median age was 33 years (interquartile range: 27–41 years), 49% were females, and median CD4 count was 192/μL (interquartile range: 72–346/μL). One thousand fifty-seven participants (56%) reported no, 370 (20%) reported 1–3, and 460 (24%) reported >3 barriers to care. By 1 year, 250 [13%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 12% to 15%] participants died. Adjusting for age, sex, education, baseline CD4 count, distance to clinic, and tuberculosis status, participants with 1–3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.08) and >3 barriers (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.43) had higher 1-year mortality risk compared with those without barriers.

Conclusions:

HIV-infected individuals in South Africa who reported perceived barriers to medical care at diagnosis were more likely to die within 1 year. Targeted structural interventions, such as extended clinic hours, travel vouchers, and streamlined clinic operations, may improve linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy initiation for these people.

Sizanani: A Randomized Trial of Health System Navigators to Improve Linkage to HIV and TB Care in South Africa

Background:

A fraction of HIV-diagnosed individuals promptly initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the efficacy of health system navigators for improving linkage to HIV and tuberculosis (TB) care among newly diagnosed HIV-infected outpatients in Durban, South Africa.

Methods:

We conducted a randomized controlled trial (Sizanani Trial, NCT01188941) among adults (≥18 years) at 4 sites. Participants underwent TB screening and randomization into a health system navigator intervention or usual care. Intervention participants had an in-person interview at enrollment and received phone calls and text messages over 4 months. We assessed 9-month outcomes via medical records and the National Population Registry. Primary outcome was completion of at least 3 months of ART or 6 months of TB treatment for coinfected participants.

Results:

Four thousand nine hundred three participants were enrolled and randomized; 1899 (39%) were HIV-infected, with 1146 (60%) ART-eligible and 523 (28%) TB coinfected at baseline. In the intervention, 212 (39% of outcome-eligible) reached primary outcome compared to 197 (42%) in usual care (RR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.80 to 1.08). One hundred thirty-one (14%) HIV-infected intervention participants died compared to 119 (13%) in usual care; death rates did not differ between arms (RR 1.06, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.34). In the as-treated analysis, participants reached for ≥5 navigator calls were more likely to achieve study outcome.

Conclusions:

∼40% of ART-eligible participants in both study arms reached the primary outcome 9 months after HIV diagnosis. Low rates of engagement in care, high death rates, and lack of navigator efficacy highlight the urgency of identifying more effective strategies for improving HIV and TB care outcomes.

Patient engagement in HIV care and treatment in Zambia, 2004-2014

OBJECTIVE

To describe engagement along the HIV continuum of care using a large network of clinics in Zambia.

METHODS

We employed a practical framework to describe retention along the HIV treatment cascade, using routinely collected clinical data available in resource-constrained settings. We included health facilities in four Zambian provinces with more than 300 enrolled patients over the age of 5 years. We described attrition at each step, from HIV enrolment to 720 days after ART initiation. The population was further stratified by year of enrolment to describe temporal trends in patient engagement.

RESULTS

From January 2004 to December 2014, 444 439 individuals over the age of 5 years sought HIV care at 75 eligible health facilities. Among those enrolled into HIV care, 82.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 79.4-84.5%) were fully assessed for ART eligibility within 180 days of enrolment and 63.6% (95% CI: 61.7-65.3) were found to be eligible for ART based on the HIV treatment guidelines at the time. Of those patients eligible for ART, 81.1% (95% CI: 79.5-82.7%) initiated ART within 180 days. Patient retention in ART programme was 81.2% (95% CI: 80.4-81.9%) at 90 days, 70.0% (95% CI: 68.7-71.2%) at 360 days and 61.6% (95% CI: 60.0-63.2%) at 720 days. We noted a steady decline in proportions assessed for ART eligibility and deemed eligible for ART in the time frame. Proportions that started ART and remained in care remained relatively consistent.

CONCLUSION

We describe a simple approach for assessing patient engagement after enrolment into HIV care. Using limited types of data routinely available, we demonstrate an important and replicable approach to monitoring programmes in resource-constrained settings.

Outcomes of HIV-positive patients lost to follow-up in African treatment programmes

OBJECTIVE

The retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is key to achieving global targets in response to the HIV epidemic. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) can be substantial, with unknown outcomes for patients lost to ART programmes. We examined changes in outcomes of patients LTFU over calendar time, assessed associations with other study and programme characteristics and investigated the relative success of different tracing methods.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and logistic random-effects meta-regression analysis of studies that traced adults or children who started ART and were LTFU in sub-Saharan African treatment programmes. The primary outcome was mortality, and secondary outcomes were undocumented transfer to another programme, treatment interruption and the success of tracing attempts.

RESULTS

We included 32 eligible studies from 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 20 365 patients LTFU were traced, and 15 708 patients (77.1%) were found. Compared to telephone calls, tracing that included home visits increased the probability of success: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 9.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-47.31). The risk of death declined over calendar time (aOR per 1-year increase 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95), whereas undocumented transfers (aOR 1.13, 95% CI 0.96-1.34) and treatment interruptions (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.18-1.45) tended to increase. Mortality was lower in urban than in rural areas (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98), but there was no difference in mortality between adults and children. The CD4 cell count at the start of ART increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among HIV-positive patients who started ART in sub-Saharan Africa, were lost to programmes and were successfully traced has declined substantially during the scale-up of ART, probably driven by less severe immunodeficiency at the start of therapy.

Evidence for scaling up HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for incorporating health system constraints

Jan Hontelez and colleagues argue that the cost-effectiveness studies of HIV treatment scale-up need to include health system constraints to be more informative.

What role can gender-transformative programming for men play in increasing men's HIV testing and engagement in HIV care and treatment in South Africa?

Men are less likely than women to test for HIV and engage in HIV care and treatment. We conducted in-depth interviews with men participating in One Man Can (OMC) - a rights-based gender equality and health programme intervention conducted in rural Limpopo and Eastern Cape, South Africa - to explore masculinity-related barriers to HIV testing/care/treatment and how participation in OMC impacted on these. Men who participated in OMC reported an increased capability to overcome masculinity-related barriers to testing/care/treatment. They also reported increased ability to express vulnerability and discuss HIV openly with others, which led to greater willingness to be tested for HIV and receive HIV care and treatment for those who were living with HIV. Interventions that challenge masculine norms and promote gender equality (i.e. gender-transformative interventions) represent a promising new approach to address men's barriers to testing, care and treatment.

Implementation of a pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial to evaluate impact of Botswana's Xpert MTB/RIF diagnostic algorithm on TB diagnostic sensitivity and early antiretroviral therapy mortality

BACKGROUND

In 2012, as a pilot for Botswana's national Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) rollout plans, intensified tuberculosis (TB) case finding (ICF) activities were strengthened at 22 HIV treatment clinics prior to phased activation of 13 Xpert instruments. Together, the strengthened ICF intervention and Xpert activation are referred to as the "Xpert package".

METHODS

The evaluation, called the Xpert Package Rollout Evaluation using a Stepped-wedge design (XPRES), has two key objectives: (1) to compare sensitivity of microscopy-based and Xpert-based pulmonary TB diagnostic algorithms in diagnosing sputum culture-positive TB; and (2) to evaluate impact of the "Xpert package" on all-cause, 6-month, adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality. A pragmatic, stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial design was chosen. The design involves enrollment of three cohorts: (1) cohort R, a retrospective cohort of all study clinic ART enrollees in the 24 months before study initiation (July 31, 2012); (2) cohort A, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after study initiation, who received the ICF intervention and the microscopy-based TB diagnostic algorithm; and (3) cohort B, a prospective cohort of all consenting patients presenting to study clinics after Xpert activation, who received the ICF intervention and the Xpert-based TB diagnostic algorithm. TB diagnostic sensitivity will be compared between TB culture-positive enrollees in cohorts A and B. All-cause, 6-month ART-mortality will be compared between cohorts R and B. With anticipated cohort R, A, and B sample sizes of about 10,131, 1,878, and 4,258, respectively, the study is estimated to have >80 % power to detect differences in pre-versus post-Xpert TB diagnostic sensitivity if pre-Xpert sensitivity is ≤52.5 % and post-Xpert sensitivity ≥82.5 %, and >80 % power to detect a 40 % reduction in all-cause, 6-month, ART mortality between cohorts R and B if cohort R mortality is ≥13/100 person-years.

DISCUSSION

Only one small previous trial (N = 424) among ART enrolees in Zimbabwe evaluated, in a secondary analysis, Xpert impact on all-cause 6-month ART mortality. No mortality impact was observed. This Botswana trial, with its larger sample size and powered specifically to detect differences in all-cause 6-month ART mortality, remains well-positioned to contribute understanding of Xpert impact.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02538952 .

A Decade of Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-up in Mozambique: Evaluation of Outcome Trends and New Models of Service Delivery Among More Than 300,000 Patients Enrolled During 2004-2013

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2013 in Mozambique, 455,600 HIV-positive adults (≥15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated trends in patient characteristics and outcomes during 2004-2013, outcomes of universal treatment for pregnant women (Option B+) implemented since 2013, and effect on outcomes of distributing ART to stable patients through Community ART Support Groups (CASG) since 2010.

METHODS

Data for 306,335 adults starting ART during 2004-2013 at 170 ART facilities were analyzed. Mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) were estimated using competing risks models. Outcome determinants were estimated using proportional hazards models, including CASG participation as a time-varying covariate.

RESULTS

Compared with ART enrollees in 2004, enrollees in 2013 were more commonly female (55% vs. 73%), more commonly pregnant if female (<1% vs. 30%), and had a higher median baseline CD4 count (139 vs. 235/μL). During 2004-2013, observed 6-month mortality declined from 7% to 2% but LTFU increased from 24% to 30%. Pregnant women starting ART with CD4 count >350/μL and WHO stage I/II under Option B+ guidelines in 2013 had low 6-month mortality (0.1%) but high 6-month LTFU (38%). During 2010-2013, 6766 patients joined CASGs. In multivariable analysis, compared with nonparticipation in CASG, CASG participation was associated with 35% lower LTFU but similar mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Initiation of ART at earlier disease stages in later calendar years might explain observed declines in mortality. Retention interventions are needed to address trends of increasing LTFU overall and the high LTFU among Option B+ pregnant women specifically. Further expansion of CASG could help reduce LTFU.

A Decade of Combination Antiretroviral Treatment in Asia: The TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database Cohort

Asian countries have seen the expansion of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) over the past decade. The TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) was established in 2003 comprising 23 urban referral sites in 13 countries across the region. We examined trends in treatment outcomes in patients who initiated cART between 2003 and 2013. Time of cART initiation was grouped into three periods: 2003-2005, 2006-2009, and 2010-2013. We analyzed trends in undetectable viral load (VL; defined as VL <400 copies/ml), CD4 changes from pre-cART levels, and overall survival. Of 6,521 patients included, the overall median CD4 count at cART initiation was 120 cells/μl (interquartile range: 38-218). Despite an increase over time, pre-cART CD4 counts remained <200 cells/μl. Adjusted analyses showed undetectable VL was more likely when starting cART in later years [2006-2009: odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.45, 2.15); and 2010-2013: OR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.33, 3.97), all p < .001, compared to 2003-2005], and survival was improved [2006-2009: subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.41, 95% CI (0.27, 0.61), 2010-2013: SHR = 0.29, 95% CI (0.17, 0.49), all p < .001, compared to 2003-2005]. No differences in CD4 response was observed over time. Age and CD4 levels prior to cART initiation were associated with all three treatment outcomes, with older age and higher CD4 counts being associated with undetectable VL. Survival and VL response on cART have improved over the past decade in TAHOD, although CD4 count at cART initiation remained low. Greater effort should be made to facilitate earlier HIV diagnosis and linkage to care and treatment, to achieve greater improvements in treatment outcomes.

Determinants of time to antiretroviral treatment initiation and subsequent mortality on treatment in a cohort in rural northern Malawi

BACKGROUND

To optimise care HIV patients need to be promptly initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and subsequently retained on treatment. In this study we report on the interval between enrolment and treatment initiation, and investigate subsequent attrition and mortality of patients on ART at a rural clinic in Malawi.

METHODS

HIV-positive individuals were recruited to a cohort study between January 2008 and August 2011 at Chilumba Rural Hospital (CRH). Outcomes were ascertained, up to 7 years after enrolment, through follow-up and by linkage to ART registers and the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression were used to examine ART initiation after enrolment, mortality after ART initiation, and attrition after ART initiation.

RESULTS

Of the 617 individuals recruited, 523 initiated ART between January 2008 and January 2015. Median time from HIV testing to commencement of ART was 59 days (IQR: 10-330). By a year after enrolment 74.2 % (95 % CI 70.6-77.7 %) had initiated ART. Baseline clinical data at ART initiation and data on attrition was only available for the 438 individuals who initiated ART during active follow-up, between January 2008 and August 2011. Of these individuals, 6 were missing Ministry of Health numbers, leaving 432 included in analyses of attrition and mortality. At 4 years after ART initiation 71.3 % (95 % CI 65.7-76.2 %) of these patients were retained on treatment at the CRH and 17.2 % (95 % CI 13.8-21.4 %) had died. Participants who had a lower CD4 count at enrolment (≤350 cells/μl), enrolled in 2008, or tested for HIV at the CRH rather than through serosurveys, initiated treatment faster. Once on treatment, mortality rates were higher in patients who were HIV tested at the CRH, male, older (≥35 years), missing a CD4 count, or underweight (BMI < 18.5) at ART initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Through linkage to the KHDSS and ART registers it was possible to continue follow-up beyond the end of the initial cohort study. Annual mortality after ART initiation remained considerable over a period of 4 years. Greater access to HIV and CD4 testing alongside initiation at higher CD4 counts, as planned in the test and treat strategy, could reduce this mortality.

Factors Associated with Early Mortality in HIV-Positive Men and Women Investigated for Tuberculosis at Ethiopian Health Centers

Introduction

Despite increasing access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low-income countries, HIV-related mortality is high, especially in the first months following ART initiation. We aimed to evaluate the impact of TB coinfection on early mortality and to assess gender-specific predictors of mortality in a cohort of Ethiopian adults subjected to intensified casefinding for active TB before starting ART.

Material and Methods

Prospectively recruited ART-eligible adults (n = 812, 58.6% female) at five Ethiopian health centers were followed for 6 months. At inclusion sputum culture, Xpert MTB/RIF, and smear microscopy were performed (158/812 [19.5%] had TB). Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We used multivariate Cox models to identify predictors of mortality.

Results

In total, 37/812 (4.6%) participants died, 12 (32.4%) of whom had TB. Karnofsky performance score (KPS) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) were associated with mortality in the whole population. However, the associations were different in men and women. In men, only MUAC remained associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.71 [95% CI 0.57–0.88]). In women, KPS <80% was associated with mortality (aHR 10.95 [95% CI 2.33–51.49]), as well as presence of cough (aHR 3.98 [95% CI 1.10–14.36]). Cough was also associated with mortality for TB cases (aHR 8.30 [95% CI 1.06–65.14]), but not for non-TB cases.

Conclusions

In HIV-positive Ethiopian adults managed at health centers, mortality was associated with reduced performance score and malnutrition, with different distribution with regard to gender and TB coinfection. These robust variables could be used at clinic registration to identify persons at increased risk of early mortality.

Characteristics of antiretroviral therapy-naïve patients lost-to-care in HIV clinics in Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, and Burundi

Antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients are vulnerable to becoming lost-to-care (LTC) because they are not monitored as often as patients on treatment. We examined data from 19,461 HIV positive adults at 10 HIV clinics in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Cameroon, and Burundi participating in the Phase 1 International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Central Africa (IeDEA-CA) study. Patients were LTC if they were ART-naïve and did not return within 7 months of the end of data collection. Logistic regression was used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk factors associated with LTC. Of 5353 ART-naïve patients, 4420 (83%) were LTC and 933 (17%) were in-care. The odds of being LTC were greatest among patients from DRC (OR = 2.16, CI: 1.64-2.84, p < .0001), males (OR = 1.39, CI: 1.15-1.69, p = .0009), and ages 18-49 (OR = 1.45, CI: 1.16-1.82, p = .001). The odds of being LTC were least among patients with a WHO Clinical Stage of 1 or 2 (OR = 0.65, CI: 0.55-0.77, p < .0001) and in a perceived concordant relationship (OR = 0.61, CI: 0.43-0.87, p < .0001). LTC patients were more likely to have characteristics associated with higher risk for HIV transmission and progression. Many entered care at advanced stages and were less likely to know their partner's serostatus. Greater efforts to retain ART-naïve patients may increase earlier initiation of ART.

The occurrence of Simpson's paradox if site-level effect was ignored in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database

OBJECTIVES

In multisite human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) observational cohorts, clustering of observations often occurs within sites. Ignoring clustering may lead to "Simpson's paradox" (SP) where the trend observed in the aggregated data is reversed when the groups are separated. This study aimed to investigate the SP in an Asian HIV cohort and the effects of site-level adjustment through various Cox regression models.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Survival time from combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation was analyzed using four Cox models: (1) no site adjustment; (2) site as a fixed effect; (3) stratification through site; and (4) shared frailty on site.

RESULTS

A total of 6,454 patients were included from 23 sites in Asia. SP was evident in the year of cART initiation variable. Model (1) shows the hazard ratio (HR) for years 2010-2014 was higher than the HR for 2006-2009, compared to 2003-2005 (HR = 0.68 vs. 0.61). Models (2)-(4) consistently implied greater improvement in survival for those who initiated in 2010-2014 than 2006-2009 contrasting findings from model (1). The effects of other significant covariates on survival were similar across four models.

CONCLUSIONS

Ignoring site can lead to SP causing reversal of treatment effects. Greater emphasis should be made to include site in survival models when possible.

Brief Report: Does Most Mortality in Patients on ART Occur in Care or After Lost to Follow-Up? Evidence From the Themba Lethu Clinic, South Africa

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

In resource-limited settings, early mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%; yet, it is unclear how much of that mortality occurs in care or after lost to follow-up. We assessed mortality rates and predictors of death among 12,222 nonpregnant ART-naive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and May 2012 in South Africa, stratified by person-years in care and lost. We found 14.6% of patients died and being lost accounted for a minority of deaths across multiple definitions of loss (population attributable-risk percent ranged from 10.4% to 42.5%). Although mortality rates in patients lost were much higher than in care, most ART-related mortality occurred on treatment.

Implementation and Operational Research: Postpartum Transfer of Care Among HIV-Infected Women Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy During Pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The integration of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services into antenatal care for prevention of mother-to-child transmission has resulted in the need to transfer HIV-infected women to general ART clinics after delivery. Transfer of patients on ART between services may present a challenge to adherence and retention, but there are few data describing this step in the HIV care cascade for women starting ART in pregnancy.

METHODS

We described postpartum transfer of care in a cohort of women initiating ART during pregnancy and referred from integrated antenatal ART services to general ART clinics. Engagement in ART care at general ART clinics was assessed through routine laboratory records and telephonic interviews.

RESULTS

Overall, 279 postpartum women were transferred to ART clinics. By 5 months postreferral, between 74% and 91% of women had evidence of engagement at an ART clinic depending on the outcome definition. In a log-binomial model adjusted for age, CD4 cell count and being diagnosed with HIV in the current pregnancy, additional months on ART before delivery improved the likelihood of engagement in an ART clinic (relative risk: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.09, P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

Postpartum transfer of ART care is an important and previously neglected step in the HIV care cascade for pregnant women. Even in this cohort of highly adherent women up to 25% did not remain in care after transfer. Retention is required across all steps of the cascade, including transfer of ART care after delivery, to maximize the benefits of ART for both maternal and child health.

CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation and the risk of loss to follow-up: results from a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is now recommended irrespective of CD4 count. However data on the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and loss to follow-up (LTFU) are limited and conflicting.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis including all adults initiating ART (2008-2012) at three public sector sites in South Africa. LTFU was defined as no visit in the 6 months before database closure. The Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazards models examined the relationship between CD4 count at ART initiation and 24-month LTFU. Final models were adjusted for demographics, year of ART initiation, programme expansion and corrected for unascertained mortality.

RESULTS

Among 17 038 patients, the median CD4 at initiation increased from 119 (IQR 54-180) in 2008 to 257 (IQR 175-318) in 2012. In unadjusted models, observed LTFU was associated with both CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL. After adjustment, patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL were 1.35 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.63) times as likely to be LTFU after 24 months compared to those with a CD4 150-199 cells/μL. This increased risk for patients with CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL was largest in the first 3 months on treatment. Correction for unascertained deaths attenuated the association between CD4 counts <100 cells/μL and LTFU while the association between CD4 counts ≥300 cells/μL and LTFU persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients initiating ART at higher CD4 counts may be at increased risk for LTFU. With programmes initiating patients at higher CD4 counts, models of ART delivery need to be reoriented to support long-term retention.

Retention, transfer out and loss to follow-up two years after delivery in a cohort of HIV+ pregnant women in Malawi

In this study, we analysed in a cohort of pregnant women followed for two years the proportion of women remaining at the same clinic, those who transferred to other clinics, and those lost to follow-up. The possible determinants of the loss to follow-up were also assessed in a setting of postpartum discontinuation based on CD4+ count. A total of 311 pregnant women received antiretroviral therapy from week 25 of gestational age until six months postpartum (end of breastfeeding period), or indefinitely if meeting the criteria for treatment (baseline CD4+ <350 cells/mm(3)). Twenty-four months after delivery, six women had died, 247 were in active follow-up, 21 had transferred to another antiretroviral therapy clinic and 37 were lost to follow-up (rate of loss to follow-up 13%, 95% CI 9.1-16.9%). The presence of a baseline CD4+ count above 350 cells/mm(3) was associated with a ten-fold higher risk of loss to follow-up after six months of delivery (hazard ratio: 9.8, 95% CI 2.2-42.7, for baseline CD4 >350 cells/mm(3) versus baseline CD4+ count below 350 cells/mm(3), p = 0.002). This finding suggests that discontinuation of drugs when the risk of transmission has ceased can have a negative impact on the retention in care of these women.