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de Souza WM, Weaver SC. Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases. Nat Rev Microbiol 2024; 22:476-491. [PMID: 38486116 DOI: 10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M de Souza
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Scott C Weaver
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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2
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Marini G, Drakulovic MB, Jovanovic V, Dagostin F, Wint W, Tagliapietra V, Vasic M, Rizzoli A. Drivers and epidemiological patterns of West Nile virus in Serbia. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1429583. [PMID: 39086811 PMCID: PMC11288825 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1429583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Serbia, where it has been detected as a cause of infection in humans since 2012. We analyzed and modelled WNV transmission patterns in the country between 2012 and 2023. Methods We applied a previously developed modelling approach to quantify epidemiological parameters of interest and to identify the most important environmental drivers of the force of infection (FOI) by means of statistical analysis in the human population in the country. Results During the study period, 1,387 human cases were recorded, with substantial heterogeneity across years. We found that spring temperature is of paramount importance for WNV transmission, as FOI magnitude and peak timing are positively associated with it. Furthermore, FOI is also estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of older adult people, who are at higher risk to develop severe infections. Conclusion Our results highlight that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV outbreak magnitude in Serbia, confirming the association between spring climatic conditions and WNV human transmission risk and thus pointing out the importance of this factor as a potential early warning predictor for timely application of preventive and control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Marini
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Italy
| | - Mitra B. Drakulovic
- Department for Communicable Diseases Prevention and Control, National Public Health Institute “Dr Milan Jovanovic-Batut”, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Verica Jovanovic
- Department for Communicable Diseases Prevention and Control, National Public Health Institute “Dr Milan Jovanovic-Batut”, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Francesca Dagostin
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Italy
| | - Willy Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford Ltd., c/o Dept Biology, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Milena Vasic
- Department for Communicable Diseases Prevention and Control, National Public Health Institute “Dr Milan Jovanovic-Batut”, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige, Italy
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3
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Matte T, Lane K, Tipaldo JF, Barnes J, Knowlton K, Torem E, Anand G, Yoon L, Marcotullio P, Balk D, Constible J, Elszasz H, Ito K, Jessel S, Limaye V, Parks R, Rutigliano M, Sorenson C, Yuan A. NPCC4: Climate change and New York City's health risk. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2024. [PMID: 38922909 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.15115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2023] [Revised: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report considers climate health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies in New York City's unique urban context. It updates evidence since the last health assessment in 2015 as part of NPCC2 and addresses climate health risks and vulnerabilities that have emerged as especially salient to NYC since 2015. Climate health risks from heat and flooding are emphasized. In addition, other climate-sensitive exposures harmful to human health are considered, including outdoor and indoor air pollution, including aeroallergens; insect vectors of human illness; waterborne infectious and chemical contaminants; and compounding of climate health risks with other public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence-informed strategies for reducing future climate risks to health are considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Matte
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Kathryn Lane
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jenna F Tipaldo
- CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy and CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, New York, USA
| | - Janice Barnes
- Climate Adaptation Partners, New York, New York, USA
| | - Kim Knowlton
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Emily Torem
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA
| | - Gowri Anand
- City of New York, Department of Transportation, New York, New York, USA
| | - Liv Yoon
- School of Kinesiology, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Peter Marcotullio
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Hunter College, CUNY, New York, New York, USA
| | - Deborah Balk
- Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College and also CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Hayley Elszasz
- City of New York, Mayors Office of Climate and Environmental Justice, New York, New York, USA
| | - Kazuhiko Ito
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA
| | - Sonal Jessel
- WE ACT for Environmental Justice, New York, New York, USA
| | - Vijay Limaye
- Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York, USA
| | - Robbie Parks
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Mallory Rutigliano
- New York City Mayor's Office of Management and Budget, New York, New York, USA
| | - Cecilia Sorenson
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ariel Yuan
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, New York, USA
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4
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Holmes CJ, Chakraborty S, Ajayi OM, Unran MR, Frigard RA, Stacey CL, Susanto EE, Chen SC, Rasgon JL, DeGennaro MJ, Xiao Y, Benoit JB. Multiple bouts of blood feeding in mosquitoes allow prolonged survival and are predicted to increase viral transmission during drought. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2024:2024.05.28.595907. [PMID: 38854138 PMCID: PMC11160655 DOI: 10.1101/2024.05.28.595907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Survival through periods of drought is critical for mosquitoes to reside in semi-arid regions with humans, but water sources may be limited. Previous studies have shown that dehydrated mosquitoes will increase blood feeding propensity, but how this would occur over extended dry periods is unknown. Following a bloodmeal, prolonged exposure to dry conditions increased secondary blood feeding in mosquitoes by nearly two-fold, and chronic blood feeding allowed mosquitoes to survive twenty days without access to water sources. This refeeding did not alter the number of eggs generated, suggesting this refeeding is for hydration and nutrient replenishment. Exposure to desiccating conditions following a bloodmeal resulted in increased activity, decreased sleep levels, and prompted a return of CO2 sensing before egg deposition. The increased blood feeding during the vitellogenic stage and higher survival during dry periods are predicted to increase pathogen transmission and explain the elevated levels of specific arbovirus cases during dry conditions. These results solidify our understanding of the role of dry periods on mosquito blood feeding and how mosquito dehydration contributes to vectorial capacity and disease transmission dynamics.
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5
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Fay RL, Cruz-Loya M, Keyel AC, Price DC, Zink SD, Mordecai EA, Ciota AT. Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates. iScience 2024; 27:109934. [PMID: 38799579 PMCID: PMC11126822 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel L. Fay
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY, USA
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | | | - Alexander C. Keyel
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Dana C. Price
- Department of Entomology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Steve D. Zink
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | | | - Alexander T. Ciota
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY, USA
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
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Moser SK, Spencer JA, Barnard M, Hyman JM, Manore CA, Gorris ME. Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States. GEOHEALTH 2024; 8:e2024GH001024. [PMID: 38912225 PMCID: PMC11190782 DOI: 10.1029/2024gh001024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2024] [Revised: 05/31/2024] [Accepted: 06/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024]
Abstract
Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- S. Kane Moser
- Genomics and BioanalyticsLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
- Odum School of EcologyUniversity of GeorgiaAthensGAUSA
| | - Julie A. Spencer
- Information Systems and ModelingLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - Martha Barnard
- Information Systems and ModelingLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
- Division of BiostatisticsUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolisMNUSA
| | | | - Carrie A. Manore
- Theoretical Biology and BiophysicsLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - Morgan E. Gorris
- Information Systems and ModelingLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
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Drwiega EN, Danziger LH, Burgos RM, Michienzi SM. Commonly Reported Mosquito-Borne Viruses in the United States: A Primer for Pharmacists. J Pharm Pract 2024; 37:741-752. [PMID: 37018738 DOI: 10.1177/08971900231167929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases are a public health concern. Pharmacists are often a patient's first stop for health information and may be asked questions regarding transmission, symptoms, and treatment of mosquito borne viruses (MBVs). The objective of this paper is to review transmission, geographic location, symptoms, diagnosis and treatment of MBVs. We discuss the following viruses with cases in the US in recent years: Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, LaCrosse Encephalitis, Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus, and Zika. Prevention, including vaccines, and the impact of climate change are also discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily N Drwiega
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Larry H Danziger
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
- College of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Rodrigo M Burgos
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Sarah M Michienzi
- College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
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8
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Erhardt R, Di Vittorio CA, Hepler SA, Lowman LEL, Wei W. Homogenized gridded dataset for drought and hydrometeorological modeling for the continental United States. Sci Data 2024; 11:375. [PMID: 38609423 PMCID: PMC11015021 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03202-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
We present a novel data set for drought in the continental US (CONUS) built to enable computationally efficient spatio-temporal statistical and probabilistic models of drought. We converted drought data obtained from the widely-used US Drought Monitor (USDM) from its native geo-referenced polygon format to a 0.5 degree regular grid. We merged known environmental drivers of drought, including those obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) teleconnections data. The resulting data set permits statistical and probabilistic modeling of drought with explicit spatial and/or temporal dependence. Such models could be used to forecast drought at short-range, seasonal to sub-seasonal, and inter-annual timescales with uncertainty, extending the reach and value of the current US Drought Outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. This novel data product provides the first common gridded dataset that includes critical variables used to inform hydrological and meteorological drought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Erhardt
- Wake Forest University, Department of Statistical Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC, USA.
| | | | - Staci A Hepler
- Wake Forest University, Department of Statistical Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
| | - Lauren E L Lowman
- Wake Forest University, Department of Engineering, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
| | - Wendy Wei
- Wake Forest University, Department of Statistical Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
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Pelz JO, Mühlberg C, Friedrich I, Weidhase L, Zimmermann S, Maier M, Pietsch C. A Specific Pattern of Routine Cerebrospinal Fluid Parameters Might Help to Identify Cases of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease. Viruses 2024; 16:341. [PMID: 38543707 PMCID: PMC10974314 DOI: 10.3390/v16030341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2024] [Revised: 02/16/2024] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Viral meningitis/encephalitis (ME) is a rare but potentially harmful disease. The prompt identification of the respective virus is important to guide not only treatment but also potential public health countermeasures. However, in about 40% of cases, no virus is identified despite an extensive diagnostic workup. The aim of the present study was to analyze demographic, seasonal, and routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters in cases of viral ME and assess their utility for the prediction of the causative virus. METHODS Demographic data, season, and routine CSF parameters (total leucocytes, CSF cell differentiation, age-adjusted CSF/serum albumin ratio, and total immunoglobulin ratios) were retrospectively assessed in cases of viral ME. RESULTS In total, 156 cases of acute viral ME (74 female, median age 40.0 years) were treated at a tertiary-care hospital in Germany. Specific viral infections were detected in 93 (59.6%) cases. Of these, 14 (9.0%) cases were caused by herpes simplex virus (HSV), 36 (23.1%) by varicella-zoster virus (VZV), 27 (17.3%) by enteroviruses, 9 (5.8%) by West Nile virus (WNV), and 7 (4.5%) by other specific viruses. Additionally, 64 (41.0%) cases of ME of unknown viral etiology were diagnosed. Cases of WNV ME were older, predominantly male, showed a severe disruption of the blood-CSF-barrier, a high proportion of neutrophils in CSF, and an intrathecal total immunoglobulin M synthesis in the first CSF sample. In a multinominal logistic regression analysis, the accuracy of these CSF parameters together with age and seasonality was best for the prediction of WNV (87.5%), followed by unknown viral etiology (66.7%), VZV (61.8%), and enteroviruses (51.9%). CONCLUSIONS Cases with WNV ME showed a specific pattern of routine CSF parameters and demographic data that allowed for their identification with good accuracy. These findings might help to guide the diagnostic workup in cases with viral ME, in particular allowing the timely identification of cases with ME due to WNV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johann Otto Pelz
- Department of Neurology, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Christoph Mühlberg
- Department of Neurology, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Isabel Friedrich
- Department of Neurology, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Lorenz Weidhase
- Medical Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Silke Zimmermann
- Institute of Laboratory Medicine, Clinical Chemistry and Molecular Diagnostics, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Melanie Maier
- Department of Virology, Institute of Medical Microbiology and Virology, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Corinna Pietsch
- Department of Virology, Institute of Medical Microbiology and Virology, University Hospital Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
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Fair JM, Al-Hmoud N, Alrwashdeh M, Bartlow AW, Balkhamishvili S, Daraselia I, Elshoff A, Fakhouri L, Javakhishvili Z, Khoury F, Muzyka D, Ninua L, Tsao J, Urushadze L, Owen J. Transboundary determinants of avian zoonotic infectious diseases: challenges for strengthening research capacity and connecting surveillance networks. Front Microbiol 2024; 15:1341842. [PMID: 38435695 PMCID: PMC10907996 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2024.1341842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
As the climate changes, global systems have become increasingly unstable and unpredictable. This is particularly true for many disease systems, including subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenzas (HPAIs) that are circulating the world. Ecological patterns once thought stable are changing, bringing new populations and organisms into contact with one another. Wild birds continue to be hosts and reservoirs for numerous zoonotic pathogens, and strains of HPAI and other pathogens have been introduced into new regions via migrating birds and transboundary trade of wild birds. With these expanding environmental changes, it is even more crucial that regions or counties that previously did not have surveillance programs develop the appropriate skills to sample wild birds and add to the understanding of pathogens in migratory and breeding birds through research. For example, little is known about wild bird infectious diseases and migration along the Mediterranean and Black Sea Flyway (MBSF), which connects Europe, Asia, and Africa. Focusing on avian influenza and the microbiome in migratory wild birds along the MBSF, this project seeks to understand the determinants of transboundary disease propagation and coinfection in regions that are connected by this flyway. Through the creation of a threat reduction network for avian diseases (Avian Zoonotic Disease Network, AZDN) in three countries along the MBSF (Georgia, Ukraine, and Jordan), this project is strengthening capacities for disease diagnostics; microbiomes; ecoimmunology; field biosafety; proper wildlife capture and handling; experimental design; statistical analysis; and vector sampling and biology. Here, we cover what is required to build a wild bird infectious disease research and surveillance program, which includes learning skills in proper bird capture and handling; biosafety and biosecurity; permits; next generation sequencing; leading-edge bioinformatics and statistical analyses; and vector and environmental sampling. Creating connected networks for avian influenzas and other pathogen surveillance will increase coordination and strengthen biosurveillance globally in wild birds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeanne M. Fair
- Genomics and Bioanalytics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
| | - Nisreen Al-Hmoud
- Bio-Safety and Bio-Security Center, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan
| | - Mu’men Alrwashdeh
- Bio-Safety and Bio-Security Center, Royal Scientific Society, Amman, Jordan
| | - Andrew W. Bartlow
- Genomics and Bioanalytics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
| | | | - Ivane Daraselia
- Center of Wildlife Disease Ecology, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | | | - Zura Javakhishvili
- Center of Wildlife Disease Ecology, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Fares Khoury
- Department of Biology and Biotechnology, American University of Madaba, Madaba, Jordan
| | - Denys Muzyka
- National Scientific Center, Institute of Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Jean Tsao
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
| | - Lela Urushadze
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health (NCDC) of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Jennifer Owen
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
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11
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Vandelli V, Palandri L, Coratza P, Rizzi C, Ghinoi A, Righi E, Soldati M. Conditioning factors in the spreading of Covid-19 - Does geography matter? Heliyon 2024; 10:e25810. [PMID: 38356610 PMCID: PMC10865316 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 02/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/16/2024] Open
Abstract
There is evidence in literature that the spread of COVID-19 can be influenced by various geographic factors, including territorial features, climate, population density, socioeconomic conditions, and mobility. The objective of the paper is to provide an updated literature review on geographical studies analysing the factors which influenced COVID-19 spreading. This literature review took into account not only the geographical aspects but also the COVID-19-related outcomes (infections and deaths) allowing to discern the potential influencing role of the geographic factors per type of outcome. A total of 112 scientific articles were selected, reviewed and categorized according to subject area, aim, country/region of study, considered geographic and COVID-19 variables, spatial and temporal units of analysis, methodologies, and main findings. Our literature review showed that territorial features may have played a role in determining the uneven geography of COVID-19; for instance, a certain agreement was found regarding the direct relationship between urbanization degree and COVID-19 infections. For what concerns climatic factors, temperature was the variable that correlated the best with COVID-19 infections. Together with climatic factors, socio-demographic ones were extensively taken into account. Most of the analysed studies agreed that population density and human mobility had a significant and direct relationship with COVID-19 infections and deaths. The analysis of the different approaches used to investigate the role of geographic factors in the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic revealed that the significance/representativeness of the outputs is influenced by the scale considered due to the great spatial variability of geographic aspects. In fact, a more robust and significant association between geographic factors and COVID-19 was found by studies conducted at subnational or local scale rather than at country scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vittoria Vandelli
- Department of Chemical and Geological Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Lucia Palandri
- Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Paola Coratza
- Department of Chemical and Geological Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Cristiana Rizzi
- Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Alessandro Ghinoi
- Department of Chemical and Geological Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Elena Righi
- Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
| | - Mauro Soldati
- Department of Chemical and Geological Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, 41125, Modena, Italy
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12
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Athni TS, Childs ML, Glidden CK, Mordecai EA. Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.12.04.569955. [PMID: 38105988 PMCID: PMC10723351 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.04.569955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.
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Ward MJ, Sorek‐Hamer M, Henke JA, Little E, Patel A, Shaman J, Vemuri K, DeFelice NB. A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2023GH000855. [PMID: 38077289 PMCID: PMC10702611 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most significant arbovirus in the United States in terms of both morbidity and mortality. West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17 years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 environmental data. Our multi-model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J. Ward
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Meytar Sorek‐Hamer
- Universities Space Research Association (USRA) at NASA Ames Research CenterMoffett FieldCAUSA
| | | | - Eliza Little
- Connecticut Department of Public HealthHartfordCTUSA
| | - Aman Patel
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Jeffery Shaman
- Columbia Climate SchoolNew YorkNYUSA
- Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Krishna Vemuri
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Nicholas B. DeFelice
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
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14
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Holcomb KM, Staples JE, Nett RJ, Beard CB, Petersen LR, Benjamin SG, Green BW, Jones H, Johansson MA. Multi-Model Prediction of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease With Machine Learning for Identification of Important Regional Climatic Drivers. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2023GH000906. [PMID: 38023388 PMCID: PMC10654557 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Revised: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 10/21/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors, and complex ecology make prediction of spatiotemporal variation in WNV transmission challenging. Machine learning provides promising tools for identification of important variables in such situations. To predict annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases in CONUS (2015-2021), we fitted 10 probabilistic models with variation in complexity from naïve to machine learning algorithm and an ensemble. We made predictions in each of nine climate regions on a hexagonal grid and evaluated each model's predictive accuracy. Using the machine learning models (random forest and neural network), we identified the relative importance and variation in ranking of predictors (historical WNND cases, climate anomalies, human demographics, and land use) across regions. We found that historical WNND cases and population density were among the most important factors while anomalies in temperature and precipitation often had relatively low importance. While the relative performance of each model varied across climatic regions, the magnitude of difference between models was small. All models except the naïve model had non-significant differences in performance relative to the baseline model (negative binomial model fit per hexagon). No model, including the ensemble or more complex machine learning models, outperformed models based on historical case counts on the hexagon or region level; these models are good forecasting benchmarks. Further work is needed to assess if predictive capacity can be improved beyond that of these historical baselines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen M. Holcomb
- Global Systems LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderCOUSA
- Now at Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - J. Erin Staples
- Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Randall J. Nett
- Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Charles B. Beard
- Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Lyle R. Petersen
- Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Stanley G. Benjamin
- Global Systems LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderCOUSA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Benjamin W. Green
- Global Systems LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderCOUSA
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental SciencesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderCOUSA
| | - Hunter Jones
- Climate Prediction OfficeNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSilver SpringMDUSA
| | - Michael A. Johansson
- Division of Vector‐Borne DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and PreventionSan JuanPRUSA
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15
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Hort HM, Ibaraki M, Schwartz FW. Temporal and Spatial Synchronicity in West Nile Virus Cases Along the Central Flyway, USA. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000708. [PMID: 37181010 PMCID: PMC10171186 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Revised: 03/18/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
This study of West Nile virus (WNV) examined the possibility of avian transmission to explain synchronicity in the year-to-year variability of WNV case numbers from Texas northward to the Dakotas, and reasons for the large case numbers on the northern Great Plains. We determined correlation coefficients between annual disease incidence per 100,000 people among states within the Great Plains Region, as well as the Central Flyway. There was spatial and temporal synchronicity, as evidenced by Pearson "r," with values along the core of the Central Flyway (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota) varying between 0.69 and 0.79. Correlations for North Dakota (r = 0.6), however, were affected by local conditions. The concept of relative amplification is helpful in explaining why northerly states along the Central Flyway have larger annual case numbers per 100,000 than Texas but preserve the temporal signal. States differed in their capacity for amplifying the temporal signal in case numbers. For example, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota case numbers were commonly amplified relative to Texas, with Oklahoma and Kansas deamplified. Relative amplification factors for all states increased as a function of increasing case numbers in Texas. Thus, increased numbers of initially infected birds in Texas likely led to the rapid intensification of the zoonotic cycle as compared to more typical years. The study also confirmed the importance of winter weather in locally modulating disease cases. North Dakota appeared most impacted by these factors to the extent of reducing WNV case numbers in colder years and years with deep snow.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - M. Ibaraki
- School of Earth SciencesThe Ohio State UniversityColumbusOHUSA
| | - F. W. Schwartz
- School of Earth SciencesThe Ohio State UniversityColumbusOHUSA
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Gorris ME, Randerson JT, Coffield SR, Treseder KK, Zender CS, Xu C, Manore CA. Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:47016. [PMID: 37104243 PMCID: PMC10137712 DOI: 10.1289/ehp10986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. OBJECTIVES Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. METHODS We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R2=0.61. RESULTS Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. DISCUSSION We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morgan E. Gorris
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - James T. Randerson
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Shane R. Coffield
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Kathleen K. Treseder
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Charles S. Zender
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Chonggang Xu
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
| | - Carrie A. Manore
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA
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Ratter-Rieck JM, Roden M, Herder C. Diabetes and climate change: current evidence and implications for people with diabetes, clinicians and policy stakeholders. Diabetologia 2023; 66:1003-1015. [PMID: 36964771 PMCID: PMC10039694 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-023-05901-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will be a major challenge for the world's health systems in the coming decades. Elevated temperatures and increasing frequencies of heat waves, wildfires, heavy precipitation and other weather extremes can affect health in many ways, especially if chronic diseases are already present. Impaired responses to heat stress, including compromised vasodilation and sweating, diabetes-related comorbidities, insulin resistance and chronic low-grade inflammation make people with diabetes particularly vulnerable to environmental risk factors, such as extreme weather events and air pollution. Additionally, multiple pathogens show an increased rate of transmission under conditions of climate change and people with diabetes have an altered immune system, which increases the risk for a worse course of infectious diseases. In this review, we summarise recent studies on the impact of climate-change-associated risk for people with diabetes and discuss which individuals may be specifically prone to these risk conditions due to their clinical features. Knowledge of such high-risk groups will help to develop and implement tailored prevention and management strategies to mitigate the detrimental effect of climate change on the health of people with diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacqueline M Ratter-Rieck
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.
- German Center for Diabetes Research, Partner Düsseldorf, München-Neuherberg, Germany.
| | - Michael Roden
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research, Partner Düsseldorf, München-Neuherberg, Germany
- Department of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Christian Herder
- Institute for Clinical Diabetology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research, Partner Düsseldorf, München-Neuherberg, Germany
- Department of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
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Louis S, Carlson AK, Suresh A, Rim J, Mays M, Ontaneda D, Dhawan A. Impacts of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Neurologic Health, Disease, and Practice: A Scoping Review. Neurology 2023; 100:474-483. [PMID: 36384657 PMCID: PMC9990849 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000201630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Although the international community collectively seeks to reduce global temperature rise to less than 1.5°C before 2100, irreversible environmental changes have already occurred, and as the planet warms, these changes will continue to occur. As we witness the effects of a warming planet on human health, it is imperative that neurologists anticipate how the epidemiology and incidence of neurologic disease may change. In this review, we organized our analysis around 3 key themes related to climate change and neurologic health: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations, emerging neuroinfectious diseases, and pollutant impacts. Across each of these themes, we appraised and reviewed recent literature relevant to neurologic disease and practice. METHODS Studies were identified using search terms relating to climate change, pollutants, and neurologic disease in PubMed, OVID MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, and gray literature. Studies published between 1990 and 2022 were included if they pertained to human incidence or prevalence of disease, were in English, and were relevant to neurologic disease. RESULTS We identified a total of 364 articles, grouped into the 3 key themes of our study: extreme weather events and temperature fluctuations (38 studies), emerging neuroinfectious diseases (37 studies), and pollutant impacts (289 studies). The included studies highlighted the relationships between neurologic symptom exacerbation and temperature variability, tick-borne infections and warming climates, and airborne pollutants and cerebrovascular disease incidence and severity. DISCUSSION Temperature extremes and variability both associated with stroke incidence and severity, migraine headaches, hospitalization in patients with dementia, and multiple sclerosis exacerbations. Exposure to airborne pollutants, especially PM2.5 and nitrates, associated with stroke incidence and severity, headaches, dementia risk, Parkinson disease, and MS exacerbation. Climate change has demonstrably expanded favorable conditions for zoonotic diseases beyond traditional borders and poses the risk of disease in new, susceptible populations. Articles were biased toward resource-rich regions, suggesting a discordance between where research occurs and where changes are most acute. As such, 3 key priorities emerged for further study: neuroinfectious disease risk mitigation, understanding the pathophysiology of airborne pollutants on the nervous system, and methods to improve delivery of neurologic care in the face of climate-related disruptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shreya Louis
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Alise K Carlson
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Abhilash Suresh
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Joshua Rim
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - MaryAnn Mays
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Daniel Ontaneda
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH
| | - Andrew Dhawan
- From the Lerner College of Medicine (S.L.), Cleveland Clinic, OH; and Neurological Institute (A.K.C., A.S., J.R., M.M., D.O., A.D.), Cleveland Clinic, OH.
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19
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Holcomb KM, Mathis S, Staples JE, Fischer M, Barker CM, Beard CB, Nett RJ, Keyel AC, Marcantonio M, Childs ML, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Hamins-Puértolas M, Ray EL, Uelmen JA, DeFelice N, Freedman AS, Hollingsworth BD, Das P, Osthus D, Humphreys JM, Nova N, Mordecai EA, Cohnstaedt LW, Kirk D, Kramer LD, Harris MJ, Kain MP, Reed EMX, Johansson MA. Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:11. [PMID: 36635782 PMCID: PMC9834680 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05630-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. METHODS We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. RESULTS Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. CONCLUSIONS Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases).
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen M. Holcomb
- Global Systems Laboratory, National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Boulder, CO USA
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Sarabeth Mathis
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - J. Erin Staples
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Marc Fischer
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA
| | - Charles B. Beard
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Randall J. Nett
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Alexander C. Keyel
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY USA
| | - Matteo Marcantonio
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA
- Evolutionary Ecology and Genetics Group, Earth & Life Institute-UCLouvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Marissa L. Childs
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Morgan E. Gorris
- Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA
| | - Ilia Rochlin
- Center for Vector Biology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ USA
| | | | - Evan L. Ray
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA USA
| | - Johnny A. Uelmen
- Department of Pathobiology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL USA
| | - Nicholas DeFelice
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY USA
- Department of Global Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY USA
| | - Andrew S. Freedman
- Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC USA
| | | | - Praachi Das
- Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC USA
| | - Dave Osthus
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA
| | - John M. Humphreys
- Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Sidney, MT USA
| | - Nicole Nova
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | | | - Lee W. Cohnstaedt
- National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS USA
| | - Devin Kirk
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Laura D. Kramer
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY USA
| | | | - Morgan P. Kain
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Emily M. X. Reed
- Invasive Species Working Group, Global Change Center, Fralin Life Sciences Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, NC USA
| | - Michael A. Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, PR USA
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Santos PD, Günther A, Keller M, Homeier-Bachmann T, Groschup MH, Beer M, Höper D, Ziegler U. An advanced sequence clustering and designation workflow reveals the enzootic maintenance of a dominant West Nile virus subclade in Germany. Virus Evol 2023; 9:vead013. [PMID: 37197362 PMCID: PMC10184446 DOI: 10.1093/ve/vead013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread arthropod-borne (arbo) virus and the primary cause of arboviral encephalitis globally. Members of WNV species genetically diverged and are classified into different hierarchical groups below species rank. However, the demarcation criteria for allocating WNV sequences into these groups remain individual and inconsistent, and the use of names for different levels of the hierarchical levels is unstructured. In order to have an objective and comprehensible grouping of WNV sequences, we developed an advanced grouping workflow using the 'affinity propagation clustering' algorithm and newly included the 'agglomerative hierarchical clustering' algorithm for the allocation of WNV sequences into different groups below species rank. In addition, we propose to use a fixed set of terms for the hierarchical naming of WNV below species level and a clear decimal numbering system to label the determined groups. For validation, we applied the refined workflow to WNV sequences that have been previously grouped into various lineages, clades, and clusters in other studies. Although our workflow regrouped some WNV sequences, overall, it generally corresponds with previous groupings. We employed our novel approach to the sequences from the WNV circulation in Germany 2020, primarily from WNV-infected birds and horses. Besides two newly defined minor (sub)clusters comprising only three sequences each, Subcluster 2.5.3.4.3c was the predominant WNV sequence group detected in Germany from 2018 to 2020. This predominant subcluster was also associated with at least five human WNV infections in 2019-20. In summary, our analyses imply that the genetic diversity of the WNV population in Germany is shaped by enzootic maintenance of the dominant WNV subcluster accompanied by sporadic incursions of other rare clusters and subclusters. Moreover, we show that our refined approach for sequence grouping yields meaningful results. Although we primarily aimed at a more detailed WNV classification, the presented workflow can also be applied to the objective genotyping of other virus species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Markus Keller
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Novel and Emerging Infectious Diseases, 17493, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
| | | | - Martin H Groschup
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Novel and Emerging Infectious Diseases, 17493, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
- German Centre for Infection Research, Partner site Hamburg-Lübeck-Borstel-Riems, 17493, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
| | - Martin Beer
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Diagnostic Virology, 17493, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany
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Ward MJ, Sorek-Hamer M, Vemuri KK, DeFelice NB. Statistical Tools for West Nile Virus Disease Analysis. Methods Mol Biol 2023; 2585:171-191. [PMID: 36331774 DOI: 10.1007/978-1-0716-2760-0_16] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread arbovirus in the world and endemic to much of the United States. Its range continues to expand as land use patterns change, creating more habitable environments for the mosquito vector. Though WNV is endemic, the year-to-year risk is highly variable, thus making it difficult to understand the risk for human spillover events. Abatement districts monitor for infected mosquitoes to help understand these potential risks and to help guide our understanding of the risk posed by these observed infected mosquitoes. Creating optimal monitoring networks will provide more informed decision-making tools for abatement districts and policy makers. Investment in these monitoring networks that capture robust observations on mosquito infection rates will allow for environmentally informed inference systems to help guide decision-making and WNV risk. In turn, enhanced decision-making tools allow for faster response times of more targeted and economical surveillance and mosquito population reduction efforts and the overall reduction of WNV transmission. Here we discuss the data streams, their processing, and specifically three ways to calculate WNV infection rates in mosquitoes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Ward
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Meytar Sorek-Hamer
- Environmental Analytics Group (USRA), NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - Krishna Karthik Vemuri
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Nicholas B DeFelice
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
- Department of Global Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
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22
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Albrecht L, Kaufeld KA. Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1100543. [PMID: 36875397 PMCID: PMC9981635 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1100543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/19/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010-2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Albrecht
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States.,Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States
| | - Kimberly A Kaufeld
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
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23
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Bialosuknia SM, Dupuis II AP, Zink SD, Koetzner CA, Maffei JG, Owen JC, Landwerlen H, Kramer LD, Ciota AT. Adaptive evolution of West Nile virus facilitated increased transmissibility and prevalence in New York State. Emerg Microbes Infect 2022; 11:988-999. [PMID: 35317702 PMCID: PMC8982463 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2022.2056521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) was introduced to New York State (NYS) in 1999 and rapidly expanded its range through the continental United States (US). Apart from the displacement of the introductory NY99 genotype with the WN02 genotype, there has been little evidence of adaptive evolution of WNV in the US. WNV NY10, characterized by shared amino acid substitutions R1331K and I2513M, emerged in 2010 coincident with increased WNV cases in humans and prevalence in mosquitoes. Previous studies demonstrated an increase in frequency of NY10 strains in NYS and evidence of positive selection. Here, we present updated surveillance and sequencing data for WNV in NYS and investigate if NY10 genotype strains are associated with phenotypic change consistent with an adaptive advantage. Results confirm a significant increase in prevalence in mosquitoes though 2018, and updated sequencing demonstrates a continued dominance of NY10. We evaluated NY10 strains in Culex pipiens mosquitoes to assess vector competence and found that the NY10 genotype is associated with both increased infectivity and transmissibility. Experimental infection of American robins (Turdus migratorius) was additionally completed to assess viremia kinetics of NY10 relative to WN02. Modelling the increased infectivity and transmissibility of the NY10 strains together with strain-specific viremia demonstrates a mechanistic basis for selection that has likely contributed to the increased prevalence of WNV in NYS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean M. Bialosuknia
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
- Department of Biology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, USA
| | - Alan P. Dupuis II
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Steven D. Zink
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Cheri A. Koetzner
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Joseph G. Maffei
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Jennifer C. Owen
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Hannah Landwerlen
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Laura D. Kramer
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
- Department of Biology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, USA
| | - Alexander T. Ciota
- New York State Department of Health, The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, USA
- Department of Biology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, USA
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Albany, NY, USA
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24
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Amdouni J, Conte A, Ippoliti C, Candeloro L, Tora S, Sghaier S, Hassine TB, Fakhfekh EA, Savini G, Hammami S. Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches. Vet Med Sci 2022; 8:2703-2715. [PMID: 36005907 PMCID: PMC9677390 DOI: 10.1002/vms3.897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level. OBJECTIVES In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia. METHODS To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens. RESULTS Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. CONCLUSIONS The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jihane Amdouni
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Annamaria Conte
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Carla Ippoliti
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Luca Candeloro
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Susanna Tora
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Soufien Sghaier
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Thameur Ben Hassine
- Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi ThabetUniv. ManoubaIRESATunisie
| | - Emna Ayari Fakhfekh
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Giovanni Savini
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Salah Hammami
- Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi ThabetUniv. ManoubaIRESATunisie
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25
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Beissinger SR, Peterson SM, Hall LA, Van Schmidt N, Tecklin J, Risk BB, Richmond OM, Kovach TJ, Kilpatrick AM. Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:2372-2383. [PMID: 36209497 PMCID: PMC9828715 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2022] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonisation probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven R. Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,Museum of Vertebrate ZoologyUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Sean M. Peterson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,Department of Environmental BiologyState University of New York College of Environmental Science and ForestryNew YorkUSA
| | - Laurie A. Hall
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,Museum of Vertebrate ZoologyUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field StationCaliforniaUSA
| | - Nathan Van Schmidt
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science CenterFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - Jerry Tecklin
- Sierra Foothills Research and Extension CenterBrowns ValleyCaliforniaUSA,21170 Shields Camp RoadNevada CityCaliforniaUSA
| | - Benjamin B. Risk
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,Department of Biostatistics and BioinformaticsEmory UniversityAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Orien M. Richmond
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy & ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA,Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife RefugeCommerce CityColoradoUSA
| | - Tony J. Kovach
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA,California Department of Public Health/Vector Borne Disease SectionCaliforniaUSA
| | - A. Marm Kilpatrick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA
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26
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Nova N, Athni TS, Childs ML, Mandle L, Mordecai EA. Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases. ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS 2022; 14:333-354. [PMID: 38371741 PMCID: PMC10871673 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-111820-024214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/20/2024]
Abstract
Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole Nova
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Tejas S Athni
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Marissa L Childs
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Lisa Mandle
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
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27
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Di Pol G, Crotta M, Taylor RA. Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations. Transbound Emerg Dis 2022; 69:e1787-e1799. [PMID: 35304820 PMCID: PMC9790397 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Revised: 03/02/2022] [Accepted: 03/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This study examines the effect of environmental temperature on WNV establishment in Europe via Culex pipiens populations through use of a basic reproduction number ( R 0 ${R_0}$ ) model. A metric of thermal suitability derived from R 0 ${R_0}$ was developed by collating thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits and combining them through use of a next-generation matrix. WNV establishment was determined to be possible between 14°C and 34.3°C, with the optimal temperature at 23.7°C. The suitability measure was plotted against monthly average temperatures in 2020 and the number of months with high suitability mapped across Europe. The average number of suitable months for each year from 2013 to 2019 was also calculated and validated with reported equine West Nile fever cases from 2013 to 2019. The widespread thermal suitability for WNV establishment highlights the importance of European surveillance for this disease and the need for increased research into mosquito and bird distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriella Di Pol
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health GroupDepartment of Pathobiology and Population SciencesRoyal Veterinary CollegeLondonUK
| | - Matteo Crotta
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health GroupDepartment of Pathobiology and Population SciencesRoyal Veterinary CollegeLondonUK
| | - Rachel A. Taylor
- Department of Epidemiological SciencesAnimal and Plant Health AgencySurreyUK
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28
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Wimberly MC, Davis JK, Hildreth MB, Clayton JL. Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2022; 130:87006. [PMID: 35972761 PMCID: PMC9380861 DOI: 10.1289/ehp10287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV), a global arbovirus, is the most prevalent mosquito-transmitted infection in the United States. Forecasts of WNV risk during the upcoming transmission season could provide the basis for targeted mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. We developed the Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) WNV forecasting system and used it in South Dakota from 2016 to 2019. This study reports a post hoc forecast validation and model comparison. OBJECTIVES Our objective was to validate historical predictions of WNV cases with independent data that were not used for model calibration. We tested the hypothesis that predictive models based on mosquito surveillance data combined with meteorological variables were more accurate than models based on mosquito or meteorological data alone. METHODS The ArboMAP system incorporated models that predicted the weekly probability of observing one or more human WNV cases in each county. We compared alternative models with different predictors including a) a baseline model based only on historical WNV cases, b) mosquito models based on seasonal patterns of infection rates, c) environmental models based on lagged meteorological variables, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit, d) combined models with mosquito infection rates and lagged meteorological variables, and e) ensembles of two or more combined models. During the WNV season, models were calibrated using data from previous years and weekly predictions were made using data from the current year. Forecasts were compared with observed cases to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other metrics of spatial and temporal prediction error. RESULTS Mosquito and environmental models outperformed the baseline model that included county-level averages and seasonal trends of WNV cases. Combined models were more accurate than models based only on meteorological or mosquito infection variables. The most accurate model was a simple ensemble mean of the two best combined models. Forecast accuracy increased rapidly from early June through early July and was stable thereafter, with a maximum AUC of 0.85. The model predictions captured the seasonal pattern of WNV as well as year-to-year variation in case numbers and the geographic pattern of cases. DISCUSSION The predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough in the WNV season to allow public health responses before the peak of human cases in August. This early warning is necessary because other indicators of WNV risk, including early reports of human cases and mosquito abundance, are poor predictors of case numbers later in the season. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10287.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael C. Wimberly
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Justin K. Davis
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Michael B. Hildreth
- Department of Biology and Microbiology, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota, USA
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29
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Toolan N, Marcus H, Hanna EG, Wannous C. Legal implications of the climate-health crisis: A case study analysis of the role of public health in climate litigation. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0268633. [PMID: 35704601 PMCID: PMC9200309 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268633] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Strong scientific evidence affirms that climate change is now a public health emergency. Increasingly, climate litigation brought against governments and corporations utilizes international human rights, environmental and climate laws and policies to seek accountability for climate-destructive and health-harming actions. The health impacts of climate change make litigation an important means of pursuing justice and strategically challenging legal systems. Yet there is scant documentation in the literature of the role that public health has played in climate litigation and the legal weight public health narratives are given in such contexts. Therefore, we assessed to what extent courts of law have used public health harm in legal adjudication and sought to provide practical recommendations to address barriers to positioning legal arguments in public health-centric frames. Methods We reviewed legal databases to identify all publicly reported, documented, cases of climate litigation filed in any country or jurisdiction between 1990 and September 2020. For the 1641 cases identified, we quantified the frequency of cases where health concerns were explicitly or implicitly raised. Findings Case numbers are trending upwards, notably in high income countries. Resolution remains pending in over half of cases as the majority were initiated in the past three years. Cases were primarily based in climate and human rights law and brought by a wide range of groups and individuals predominantly against governments. About half of the decided cases found in favour for the plaintiffs. Based on this, we selected the 65 cases that were directly linked to public health. We found economic forces and pricing of health risks play a key role, as courts are challenged by litigants to adjudicate on the responsibility for health impacts. Conclusions While courts of law are receptive to public health science, significant legal reform is needed to enhance leveraging of public health evidence in legal judgements of climate litigation cases. The integration of a public health mandate into a new eco-centric legal paradigm will optimize its potential to promote human well-being—the core objective underpinning both international law, human rights, and public health. Existing legal doctrines and practices can be enhanced to increase the weight of public health arguments in climate legal action and consequently ensure legal rulings in climate litigation prioritize, protect and promote public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Narayan Toolan
- UCLA School of Law, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
- World Federation of Public Health Associations–Environmental Health Working Group
- * E-mail: (NT); (HM)
| | - Hannah Marcus
- World Federation of Public Health Associations–Environmental Health Working Group
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
- * E-mail: (NT); (HM)
| | - Elizabeth G. Hanna
- Australian National University, Fenner School for Environment and Society, Canberra, Australia
- WG Chair, World Federation of Public Health Associations–Environmental Health Working Group
| | - Chadia Wannous
- World Federation of Public Health Associations–Environmental Health Working Group
- Towards A Safer World Network and Future Earth Health-Knowledge Action Network, Stockholm, Sweden
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30
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Short-term prediction of Culex quinquefasciatus abundance in Central North Georgia, USA, based on the meteorological variability. Neural Comput Appl 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s00521-022-07324-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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31
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García-Carreras B, Yang B, Grabowski MK, Sheppard LW, Huang AT, Salje H, Clapham HE, Iamsirithaworn S, Doung-Ngern P, Lessler J, Cummings DAT. Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001160. [PMID: 35302985 PMCID: PMC8967062 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise. This study shows that spatially large-scale shifts in temperature can synchronize dengue dynamics across Thailand; however, as average temperatures rise, dengue dynamics may increasingly be dictated by dynamics of immunity, which may in turn mean fewer synchronous outbreaks in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo García-Carreras
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Bingyi Yang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Mary K. Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lawrence W. Sheppard
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- The Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Angkana T. Huang
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Hannah Eleanor Clapham
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Pawinee Doung-Ngern
- Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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32
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Holmes CJ, Brown ES, Sharma D, Nguyen Q, Spangler AA, Pathak A, Payton B, Warden M, Shah AJ, Shaw S, Benoit JB. Bloodmeal regulation in mosquitoes curtails dehydration-induced mortality, altering vectorial capacity. JOURNAL OF INSECT PHYSIOLOGY 2022; 137:104363. [PMID: 35121007 PMCID: PMC8885900 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinsphys.2022.104363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Mosquitoes readily lose water when exposed to any humidity less than that of near saturated air unless mitigated, leading to shifts in behavior, survival, distribution, and reproduction. In this study, we conducted a series of physiological experiments on two prominent species in the Culicinae subfamily: Culex pipiens, a vector of West Nile virus, and Aedes aegypti, a vector of yellow fever and Zika to examine the effects of dehydration. We exposed C. pipiens and A. aegypti to non-dehydrating conditions (saturated air), dehydrating conditions (air at a 0.89 kPa saturation vapor pressure deficit), several recovery conditions, as well as to bloodfeeding opportunities. We show that dehydrated mosquitoes increase bloodfeeding propensity, improve retention, and decrease excretion of a post-dehydration bloodmeal. In addition, mosquitoes that take a bloodmeal prior to dehydration exposure show increased survival over non-bloodfed counterparts. Dehydration-induced alterations in survival, reproduction, and bloodfeeding propensity of C. pipiens and A. aegypti resulted in marked changes to vectorial capacity. Ultimately, these results become increasingly important as drought intensifies in association with climate change and mosquitoes become more likely to experience arid periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J Holmes
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States.
| | - Elliott S Brown
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Dhriti Sharma
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Quynh Nguyen
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Austin A Spangler
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Atit Pathak
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Blaine Payton
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Matthew Warden
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Ashay J Shah
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Samantha Shaw
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Joshua B Benoit
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
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Russell MC, Herzog CM, Gajewski Z, Ramsay C, El Moustaid F, Evans MV, Desai T, Gottdenker NL, Hermann SL, Power AG, McCall AC. Both consumptive and non-consumptive effects of predators impact mosquito populations and have implications for disease transmission. eLife 2022; 11:e71503. [PMID: 35044908 PMCID: PMC8769645 DOI: 10.7554/elife.71503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie C Russell
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park CampusAscotUnited Kingdom
| | - Catherine M Herzog
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkUnited States
| | - Zachary Gajewski
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgUnited States
| | - Chloe Ramsay
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre DameNotre DameUnited States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgUnited States
| | - Michelle V Evans
- Odum School of Ecology & Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of GeorgiaAthensUnited States
- MIVEGEC, IRD, CNRS, Université MontpellierMontpellierFrance
| | - Trishna Desai
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Nicole L Gottdenker
- Odum School of Ecology & Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of GeorgiaAthensUnited States
- Department of Veterinary Pathology, University of Georgia College of Veterinary MedicineAthensUnited States
| | - Sara L Hermann
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkUnited States
| | - Alison G Power
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Cornell UniversityIthacaUnited States
| | - Andrew C McCall
- Biology Department, Denison UniversityGranvilleUnited States
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Bianchini EA, Bogiatto RJ, Donatello RA, Casazza ML, Ackerman JT, De La Cruz SEW, Cline TD. Host Correlates of Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Waterfowl of the Sacramento Valley, California. Avian Dis 2021; 66:20-28. [DOI: 10.1637/aviandiseases-d-21-00071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Raymond J. Bogiatto
- Department of Biological Sciences, California State University, Chico, Chico, CA 95929
| | - Robin A. Donatello
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, California State University, Chico, Chico, CA 95929
| | - Michael L. Casazza
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, Dixon, CA 95620
| | - Joshua T. Ackerman
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, Dixon, CA 95620
| | - Susan E. W. De La Cruz
- United States Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station, Vallejo, CA 94592
| | - Troy D. Cline
- Department of Biological Sciences, California State University, Chico, Chico, CA 95929
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Keyel AC, Raghavendra A, Ciota AT, Elison Timm O. West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:5430-5445. [PMID: 34392584 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2021] [Revised: 06/17/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare-related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present-day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito-based WNV risk using a trait-based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo-global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high-risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population-weighted relative risk (but an increase in area-weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander C Keyel
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA
| | - Ajay Raghavendra
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA
| | - Alexander T Ciota
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USA
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, SUNY, Rensselaer, New York, USA
| | - Oliver Elison Timm
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York, USA
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Irfan M, Ikram M, Ahmad M, Wu H, Hao Y. Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021. [PMID: 34143386 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14875-6/tables/1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a global concern that is deteriorating environmental quality and damaging human health. Though some researchers have investigated the linkage between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across different geographical locations and over time, yet these studies are scarce. This study aims to bridge this gap using daily temperature and COVID-19 cases (transmissibility) by employing grey incidence analysis (GIA) models (i.e., Deng's grey incidence analysis (DGIA), the absolute degree GIA (ADGIA), the second synthetic degree GIA (SSDGIA), the conservative (maximin) model) and correlation analysis. Data on temperature are accessed from the NASA database, while the data on COVID-19 cases are collected from the official website of the government of Pakistan. Empirical results reveal the existence of linkages between temperature and COVID-19 in all Pakistani provinces. These linkages vary from a relatively stronger to a relatively weaker linkage. Based on calculated weights, the strength of linkages is ranked across provinces as follows: Gilgit Baltistan (0.715301) > Baluchistan (0.675091) > Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (0.619893) > Punjab (0.619286) > Sindh (0.601736). The disparity in the strength of linkage among provinces is explained by the discrepancy in the intensity of temperature. Besides, the diagrammatic correlation analysis shows that temperature is inversely linked to COVID-19 cases (per million persons) over time, implying that low temperatures are associated with high COVID-19 transmissibility and vice versa. This study is among the first of its kind to consider the linkages between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility for a tropical climate country (Pakistan) using the advanced GIA models. Research findings provide an up-to-date glimpse of the outbreak and emphasize the need to raise public awareness about the devastating impacts of the COVID-19. The educational syllabus should provide information on the causes, signs, and precautions of the pandemic. Additionally, individuals should practice handwashing, social distancing, personal hygiene, mask-wearing, and the use of hand sanitizers to ensure a secure and supportive atmosphere for preventing and controlling the current pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Irfan
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Muhammad Ikram
- Research Institute of Business Analytics and Supply Chain Management, College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Munir Ahmad
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Haitao Wu
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Yu Hao
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
- Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China.
- Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China.
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China.
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37
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Irfan M, Ikram M, Ahmad M, Wu H, Hao Y. Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:59705-59719. [PMID: 34143386 PMCID: PMC8211721 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14875-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a global concern that is deteriorating environmental quality and damaging human health. Though some researchers have investigated the linkage between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across different geographical locations and over time, yet these studies are scarce. This study aims to bridge this gap using daily temperature and COVID-19 cases (transmissibility) by employing grey incidence analysis (GIA) models (i.e., Deng's grey incidence analysis (DGIA), the absolute degree GIA (ADGIA), the second synthetic degree GIA (SSDGIA), the conservative (maximin) model) and correlation analysis. Data on temperature are accessed from the NASA database, while the data on COVID-19 cases are collected from the official website of the government of Pakistan. Empirical results reveal the existence of linkages between temperature and COVID-19 in all Pakistani provinces. These linkages vary from a relatively stronger to a relatively weaker linkage. Based on calculated weights, the strength of linkages is ranked across provinces as follows: Gilgit Baltistan (0.715301) > Baluchistan (0.675091) > Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (0.619893) > Punjab (0.619286) > Sindh (0.601736). The disparity in the strength of linkage among provinces is explained by the discrepancy in the intensity of temperature. Besides, the diagrammatic correlation analysis shows that temperature is inversely linked to COVID-19 cases (per million persons) over time, implying that low temperatures are associated with high COVID-19 transmissibility and vice versa. This study is among the first of its kind to consider the linkages between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility for a tropical climate country (Pakistan) using the advanced GIA models. Research findings provide an up-to-date glimpse of the outbreak and emphasize the need to raise public awareness about the devastating impacts of the COVID-19. The educational syllabus should provide information on the causes, signs, and precautions of the pandemic. Additionally, individuals should practice handwashing, social distancing, personal hygiene, mask-wearing, and the use of hand sanitizers to ensure a secure and supportive atmosphere for preventing and controlling the current pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Irfan
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
| | - Muhammad Ikram
- Research Institute of Business Analytics and Supply Chain Management, College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Munir Ahmad
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China
| | - Haitao Wu
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
| | - Yu Hao
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
- Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China
- Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081 China
- Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081 China
- Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, 100081 China
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Humphreys JM, Pelzel-McCluskey AM, Cohnstaedt LW, McGregor BL, Hanley KA, Hudson AR, Young KI, Peck D, Rodriguez LL, Peters DPC. Integrating Spatiotemporal Epidemiology, Eco-Phylogenetics, and Distributional Ecology to Assess West Nile Disease Risk in Horses. Viruses 2021; 13:v13091811. [PMID: 34578392 PMCID: PMC8473291 DOI: 10.3390/v13091811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2021] [Revised: 09/08/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of West Nile disease in humans, horses, and some bird species. Since the initial introduction of WNV to the United States (US), approximately 30,000 horses have been impacted by West Nile neurologic disease and hundreds of additional horses are infected each year. Research describing the drivers of West Nile disease in horses is greatly needed to better anticipate the spatial and temporal extent of disease risk, improve disease surveillance, and alleviate future economic impacts to the equine industry and private horse owners. To help meet this need, we integrated techniques from spatiotemporal epidemiology, eco-phylogenetics, and distributional ecology to assess West Nile disease risk in horses throughout the contiguous US. Our integrated approach considered horse abundance and virus exposure, vector and host distributions, and a variety of extrinsic climatic, socio-economic, and environmental risk factors. Birds are WNV reservoir hosts, and therefore we quantified avian host community dynamics across the continental US to show intra-annual variability in host phylogenetic structure and demonstrate host phylodiversity as a mechanism for virus amplification in time and virus dilution in space. We identified drought as a potential amplifier of virus transmission and demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial non-stationarity when quantifying interaction between disease risk and meteorological influences such as temperature and precipitation. Our results delineated the timing and location of several areas at high risk of West Nile disease and can be used to prioritize vaccination programs and optimize virus surveillance and monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M. Humphreys
- Pest Management Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Sidney, MT 59270, USA
- Correspondence:
| | - Angela M. Pelzel-McCluskey
- Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), US Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA;
| | - Lee W. Cohnstaedt
- Arthropod-Borne Animal Disease Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA; (L.W.C.); (B.L.M.)
| | - Bethany L. McGregor
- Arthropod-Borne Animal Disease Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA; (L.W.C.); (B.L.M.)
| | - Kathryn A. Hanley
- Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA; (K.A.H.); (K.I.Y.)
| | - Amy R. Hudson
- Big Data Initiative and SCINet Program for Scientific Computing, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, MD 20704, USA; (A.R.H.); (D.P.C.P.)
| | - Katherine I. Young
- Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA; (K.A.H.); (K.I.Y.)
| | - Dannele Peck
- Northern Plains Climate Hub, US Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA;
| | - Luis L. Rodriguez
- Plum Island Animal Disease Center, US Department of Agriculture, Orient Point, NY 11957, USA;
| | - Debra P. C. Peters
- Big Data Initiative and SCINet Program for Scientific Computing, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, MD 20704, USA; (A.R.H.); (D.P.C.P.)
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Watts MJ, Sarto i Monteys V, Mortyn PG, Kotsila P. The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial-temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes. One Health 2021; 13:100315. [PMID: 34485672 PMCID: PMC8408625 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Revised: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 08/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile Virus (WNV) has recently emerged as a major public health concern in Europe; its recent expansion also coincided with some remarkable socio-economic and environmental changes, including an economic crisis and some of the warmest temperatures on record. Here we empirically investigate the drivers of this phenomenon at a European wide scale by constructing and analyzing a unique spatial–temporal data-set, that includes data on climate, land-use, the economy, and government spending on environmental related sectors. Drivers and risk factors of WNV were identified by building a conceptual framework, and relationships were tested using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which could capture complex non-linear relationships and also account for spatial and temporal auto-correlation. Some of the key risk factors identified in our conceptual framework, such as a higher percentage of wetlands and arable land, climate factors (higher summer rainfall and higher summer temperatures) were positive predictors of WNV infections. Interestingly, winter temperatures of between 2 °C and 6 °C were among some of the strongest predictors of annual WNV infections; one possible explanation for this result is that successful overwintering of infected adult mosquitoes (likely Culex pipiens) is key to the intensity of outbreaks for a given year. Furthermore, lower surface water extent over the summer is also associated with more intense outbreaks, suggesting that drought, which is known to induce positive changes in WNV prevalence in mosquitoes, is also contributing to the upward trend in WNV cases in affected regions. Our indicators representing the economic crisis were also strong predictors of WNV infections, suggesting there is an association between austerity and cuts to key sectors, which could have benefited vector species and the virus during this crucial period. These results, taken in the context of recent winter warming due to climate change, and more frequent droughts, may offer an explanation of why the virus has become so prevalent in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J. Watts
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Corresponding author.
| | - Victor Sarto i Monteys
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Departament d’Agricultura, Ramaderia, Pesca, Alimentació i Medi Natural, Generalitat de Catalunya, Avinguda Meridiana, Barcelona, Spain
| | - P. Graham Mortyn
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Department of Geography, Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Panagiota Kotsila
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Barcelona Laboratory for Urban Environmental Justice and Sustainability (BCNEJ), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
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40
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Keyel AC, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Uelmen JA, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, Moise IK, Shocket M, Kilpatrick AM, DeFelice NB, Davis JK, Little E, Irwin P, Tyre AJ, Helm Smith K, Fredregill CL, Elison Timm O, Holcomb KM, Wimberly MC, Ward MJ, Barker CM, Rhodes CG, Smith RL. A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009653. [PMID: 34499656 PMCID: PMC8428767 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander C. Keyel
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, United States of America
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, New York, United States of America
| | - Morgan E. Gorris
- Information Systems and Modeling & Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Ilia Rochlin
- Center for Vector Biology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Johnny A. Uelmen
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Luis F. Chaves
- Instituto Costarricense de Investigación y Enseñanza en Nutrición y Salud (INCIENSA), Tres Rios, Cartago, Costa Rica
| | - Gabriel L. Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Imelda K. Moise
- Department of Geography & Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America
| | - Marta Shocket
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - A. Marm Kilpatrick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Nicholas B. DeFelice
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States of America
- Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Justin K. Davis
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, United States of America
| | - Eliza Little
- Connecticut Agricultural Experimental Station, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Patrick Irwin
- Northwest Mosquito Abatement District, Wheeling, Illinois, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Andrew J. Tyre
- School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America
| | - Kelly Helm Smith
- National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America
| | - Chris L. Fredregill
- Mosquito and Vector Control Division, Harris County Public Health, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Oliver Elison Timm
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, New York, United States of America
| | - Karen M. Holcomb
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Michael C. Wimberly
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Ward
- Environmental Analytics Group, Universities Space Research Association, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, United States of America
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Tulane University School of Public Health & Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Charlotte G. Rhodes
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Rebecca L. Smith
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
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Gourevitch JD, Alonso-Rodríguez AM, Aristizábal N, de Wit LA, Kinnebrew E, Littlefield CE, Moore M, Nicholson CC, Schwartz AJ, Ricketts TH. Projected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3511. [PMID: 34112778 PMCID: PMC8192915 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23905-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse D Gourevitch
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
| | - Aura M Alonso-Rodríguez
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Natalia Aristizábal
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Luz A de Wit
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Eva Kinnebrew
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Caitlin E Littlefield
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Maya Moore
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Food Systems Program, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Charles C Nicholson
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Aaron J Schwartz
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Taylor H Ricketts
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
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42
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Liu AY, Trtanj JM, Lipp EK, Balbus JM. Toward an Integrated System of Climate Change and Human Health Indicators: A Conceptual Framework. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2021; 166:49. [PMID: 34912130 PMCID: PMC8670724 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03125-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Accepted: 05/17/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Environmental health indicators are helpful for tracking and communicating complex health trends, informing science and policy decisions, and evaluating public health actions. When provided on a national scale, they can help inform the general public, policy makers, and public health professionals about important trends in exposures and how well public health systems are preventing those exposures from causing adverse health outcomes. There is a growing need to understand national trends in exposures and health outcomes associated with climate change and the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies for health. To date, most indicators for health implications of climate change have been designed as independent, individual metrics. This approach fails to take into account how exposure-outcome pathways for climate-attributable health outcomes involve multiple, interconnected components. We propose reframing climate change and health indicators as a linked system of indicators, which can be described as follows: upstream climate drivers affect environmental states, which then determine human exposures, which ultimately lead to health outcomes; these climate-related risks are modified by population vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. We apply this new conceptual framework to three illustrative climate-sensitive health outcomes and associated exposure-outcome pathways: pollen allergies and asthma, West Nile Virus infection, and vibriosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ann Y. Liu
- National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences, Office of the Director, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Juli M. Trtanj
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Erin K. Lipp
- University of Georgia College of Public Health, Dean’s Office, Office of Academic Affairs, Environmental Health Science, Athens, GA, USA
| | - John M. Balbus
- National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences, Office of the Director, Bethesda, MD, USA
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43
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Humphreys JM, Young KI, Cohnstaedt LW, Hanley KA, Peters DPC. Vector Surveillance, Host Species Richness, and Demographic Factors as West Nile Disease Risk Indicators. Viruses 2021; 13:934. [PMID: 34070039 PMCID: PMC8267946 DOI: 10.3390/v13050934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Revised: 05/07/2021] [Accepted: 05/09/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) in the United States (US) and is the leading cause of viral encephalitis in the country. The virus has affected tens of thousands of US persons total since its 1999 North America introduction, with thousands of new infections reported annually. Approximately 1% of humans infected with WNV acquire neuroinvasive West Nile Disease (WND) with severe encephalitis and risk of death. Research describing WNV ecology is needed to improve public health surveillance, monitoring, and risk assessment. We applied Bayesian joint-spatiotemporal modeling to assess the association of vector surveillance data, host species richness, and a variety of other environmental and socioeconomic disease risk factors with neuroinvasive WND throughout the conterminous US. Our research revealed that an aging human population was the strongest disease indicator, but climatic and vector-host biotic interactions were also significant in determining risk of neuroinvasive WND. Our analysis also identified a geographic region of disproportionately high neuroinvasive WND disease risk that parallels the Continental Divide, and extends southward from the US-Canada border in the states of Montana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin to the US-Mexico border in western Texas. Our results aid in unraveling complex WNV ecology and can be applied to prioritize disease surveillance locations and risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M. Humphreys
- Pest Management Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Sidney, MT 59270, USA
| | - Katherine I. Young
- Jornada Experimental Range Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA; (K.I.Y.); (D.P.C.P.)
- Arthropod-Borne Animal Disease Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA;
| | - Lee W. Cohnstaedt
- Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA;
| | - Kathryn A. Hanley
- Arthropod-Borne Animal Disease Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA;
| | - Debra P. C. Peters
- Jornada Experimental Range Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA; (K.I.Y.); (D.P.C.P.)
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44
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Ewing DA, Purse BV, Cobbold CA, White SM. A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210049. [PMID: 34034529 PMCID: PMC8150030 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A. Ewing
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, The King’s Buildings, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Bethan V. Purse
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Christina A. Cobbold
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Steven M. White
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
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Kernbach ME, Martin LB, Unnasch TR, Hall RJ, Jiang RHY, Francis CD. Light pollution affects West Nile virus exposure risk across Florida. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20210253. [PMID: 33757351 PMCID: PMC8059973 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) present global health threats, and their emergences are often linked to anthropogenic change. Artificial light at night (ALAN) is one form of anthropogenic change that spans beyond urban boundaries and may be relevant to EIDs through its influence on the behaviour and physiology of hosts and/or vectors. Although West Nile virus (WNV) emergence has been described as peri-urban, we hypothesized that exposure risk could also be influenced by ALAN in particular, which is testable by comparing the effects of ALAN on prevalence while controlling for other aspects of urbanization. By modelling WNV exposure among sentinel chickens in Florida, we found strong support for a nonlinear relationship between ALAN and WNV exposure risk in chickens with peak WNV risk occurring at low ALAN levels. Although our goal was not to discern how ALAN affected WNV relative to other factors, effects of ALAN on WNV exposure were stronger than other known drivers of risk (i.e. impervious surface, human population density). Ambient temperature in the month prior to sampling, but no other considered variables, strongly influenced WNV risk. These results indicate that ALAN may contribute to spatio-temporal changes in WNV risk, justifying future investigations of ALAN on other vector-borne parasites.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meredith E. Kernbach
- Center for Global Health and Infectious Disease Research, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Lynn B. Martin
- Center for Global Health and Infectious Disease Research, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Thomas R. Unnasch
- Center for Global Health and Infectious Disease Research, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Richard J. Hall
- Odum School of Ecology and Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, 501 D.W. Brooks Dr., Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Rays H. Y. Jiang
- Center for Global Health and Infectious Disease Research, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, 3720 Spectrum Blvd., Tampa, FL 33612, USA
| | - Clinton D. Francis
- Department of Biological Sciences, California Polytechnic State University, 1 Grand Ave., San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA
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46
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Mishra J, Mishra P, Arora NK. Linkages between environmental issues and zoonotic diseases: with reference to COVID-19 pandemic. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (SINGAPORE) 2021; 4:455-467. [PMID: 38624661 PMCID: PMC8005368 DOI: 10.1007/s42398-021-00165-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Revised: 02/28/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2021] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has taken mankind by surprise with various unprecedented impacts on human life around the globe. This zoonotic pandemic is proving to be the most destructive disease outbreaks since decades. The increasing human population and anthropogenic activities have impacted the environment and have direct linkages with the current and other recent outbreaks of zoonotic diseases. Despite having a difference in their origin, major reasons behind the emergence and spread of zoonotic pandemics are related to activities such as habitat fragmentation, deforestation, biodiversity loss, intensive agriculture and livestock farming, uncontrolled urbanization, pollution, climate change and bushmeat hunting and trading. It is important to focus on environmental and climatic factors that are involved in the emergence of such pandemics involving novel human pathogens and viruses in particular. Research and data analysis, particularly in relation to COVID-19, has shown that meteorological factors along with population density and living conditions (particularly in the urban and semi-urban areas) play a crucial role in the intensity, evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2. This particular virus is novel but coronaviruses have a long history and are known to cause disease outbreaks earlier as well. COVID-19 pandemic provides learning for the future, in particular the importance of environmental sustainability for controlling such outbreaks. A strategic plan can be developed involving policy-makers, organizations, and governments to control the onset and spread of the novel pathogens. This review-based study recommends that prevention of COVID-19 like pandemics from re-occurring is through tackling the issues related to the environment by controlling anthropogenic activities. It will also be important to track the lineage and future evolution course of such human pathogens so as to determine the nexus of environmental and biological factors in the development and spread of novel strains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jitendra Mishra
- Department of Environmental Science, School for Earth and Environmental Sciences, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar (Central) University, Lucknow, 226025 India
| | - Priya Mishra
- Department of Environmental Science, School for Earth and Environmental Sciences, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar (Central) University, Lucknow, 226025 India
| | - Naveen Kumar Arora
- Department of Environmental Science, School for Earth and Environmental Sciences, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar (Central) University, Lucknow, 226025 India
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47
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Pietsch C, Michalski D, Münch J, Petros S, Bergs S, Trawinski H, Lübbert C, Liebert UG. Autochthonous West Nile virus infection outbreak in humans, Leipzig, Germany, August to September 2020. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2021; 25. [PMID: 33213686 PMCID: PMC7678033 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.46.2001786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Following a distinct summer heat wave, nine autochthonous cases of West Nile fever and West Nile neuroinvasive disease, including one fatality, were observed in Leipzig, Germany, in August and September 2020. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated close relationships in viruses from humans, animals and mosquitos in eastern Germany, obtained during the preceding 2 years. The described large cluster of autochthonous West Nile virus infections in Germany indicates endemic seasonal circulation of lineage 2 viruses in the area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corinna Pietsch
- Institute of Virology, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany; Interdisciplinary Centre for Infectious Diseases, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Dominik Michalski
- Department of Neurology, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Johannes Münch
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Endocrinology, Nephrology and Rheumatology, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Sirak Petros
- Medical ICU, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Sandra Bergs
- Institute of Virology, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany; Interdisciplinary Centre for Infectious Diseases, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Henning Trawinski
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Medicine II, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany; Interdisciplinary Centre for Infectious Diseases, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Christoph Lübbert
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Medicine II, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany; Interdisciplinary Centre for Infectious Diseases, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Uwe G Liebert
- Institute of Virology, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany; Interdisciplinary Centre for Infectious Diseases, Leipzig University Hospital, Leipzig, Germany
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48
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Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1233. [PMID: 33623008 PMCID: PMC7902664 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections. The effects of climate on vector-borne disease systems are highly context-dependent. Here, the authors incorporate laboratory-measured physiological traits of the mosquito Aedes aegypti into climate-driven mechanistic models to predict number, timing, and duration of outbreaks in Ecuador and Kenya.
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49
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Understanding national barriers to climate change adaptation for public health: a mixed-methods survey of national public health representatives. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GOVERNANCE 2020. [DOI: 10.1108/ijhg-06-2020-0061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
PurposeTo uncover the major government constraints to enactment and implementation of public health-targeted climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies in order to equip public health stakeholders and health advocates with the knowledge resources necessary to more effectively mobilize and support CCA for public health responses at the national level.Design/methodology/approachA mixed-methods online survey was distributed to the representatives of national public health associations and societies of 82 countries. The survey comprised 15 questions assessing national progress on CCA for public health and the effects of various institutional, economic/financial, technical and sociopolitical barriers on national adaptive capacity.FindingsSurvey responses from 11 countries indicated that national commitments to CCA for public health have increased markedly since prior assessments but significant shortcomings remain. The largest apparent barriers to progress in this domain were poor government coordination, lack of political will and inadequate adaptation finances.Originality/valueThis study is unique in relation to the prior literature on the topic in that it effectively captures an array of country-specific yet cross-cutting adaptation constraints across diverse national contexts. With a deepened understanding of the major determinants of national adaptive capacity, international actors can devise more effective, evidence-informed strategies to support national governments in responding to the health impacts of climate change.
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50
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Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, Rohr J, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife 2020; 9:e58511. [PMID: 32930091 PMCID: PMC7492091 DOI: 10.7554/elife.58511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta S Shocket
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los AngelesLos AngelesUnited States
| | | | - Mailo G Numazu
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
| | - Hani Slamani
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jeremy M Cohen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of WisconsinMadisonUnited States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Jason Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South FloridaTampaUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre DameSouth BendUnited States
| | - Leah R Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech)BlacksburgUnited States
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityStanfordUnited States
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