Temperature Influence on Aedes aegypti Oviposition in the San Joaquin Valley of California

The establishment and oviposition of Aedes aegypti can vary from one location to another partially due to differing temperature and precipitation. In 2017, Ae. aegypti was first detected in Merced in the Central Valley of California. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of temperature and precipitation on oviposition of Ae. aegypti, and to determine the beginning and end of the seasonal activity of Ae. aegypti in Merced. The study site consisted of a residential area in the north-east region of Merced where Ae. aegypti was first detected in Merced County. Fifty-four residences were randomly selected as ovitrap sites. Ovitraps were placed at field sites weekly for 12 months, from September 27, 2017, to September 27, 2018. Each week, ovitraps were inspected for the presence of mosquito eggs. Egg counts were used to calculate the following oviposition indices: the ovitrap index (OI) (percent of traps positive) and the egg density index (EDI) (eggs/positive traps). Oviposition occurred primarily from May through October, above a minimum temperature of 10°C, and when almost no rainfall occurred (0.5 mm total). During the year, the percent of positive traps per month ranged from approximately 1.2-67.3%, with highest values in June to October (43.9-67.3%). The highest mean monthly EDI was from July to October (34-44.6) and peaked in October at 44.6 eggs/trap. The EDI values are similar to other locations where Ae. aegypti transmits endemic vector-borne disease. These findings provide baseline data for Ae. aegypti control in Merced and the Central Valley of California.

Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections

Identifying climate drivers is essential to understand and predict epidemics of mosquito-borne infections whose population dynamics typically exhibit seasonality and multiannual cycles. Which climate covariates to consider varies across studies, from local factors such as temperature to remote drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. With partial wavelet coherence, we present a systematic investigation of nonstationary associations between mosquito-borne disease incidence and a given climate factor while controlling for another. Analysis of almost 200 time series of dengue and malaria around the globe at different geographical scales shows a systematic effect of global climate drivers on interannual variability and of local ones on seasonality. This clear separation of time scales of action enhances detection of climate drivers and indicates those best suited for building early-warning systems.

Climate parameter and malaria association in north-east India

This study was performed in order to understand the effect of climatological variables on the malaria situation in the north-east region of India, which is prolonged by the disease. Time-series analysis of major climate parameters like rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture distributions is carried out, and their correlation with the malaria incidence is quantified state-wise, which is the unique part of the study. The correlation analysis reveals that malaria is significantly related with the maximum temperature and soil moisture in three out of eight states in NE India. To assess the climate variability, the inter-dependency between the meteorological parameters is obtained and the state wise correlation matrix for all states are reported. The analysis shows that maximum and mean temperature has highest positive correlation whereas minimum temperature and relative humidity has negative correlation. The climate-malaria relation is being carried out in the study region using the regression analysis and the results revealed that the regional climate has the most impact for the malaria incidence in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland and in other states the impact is moderate. Analysis of variance modelling in the regions also indicates the degree of the fitment of both the data sets with the regression model and it is observed that the relation is also significant in the same 4 states. As a case study the impact of large scale oscillations like El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the malaria load is also assessed which can be a good indicator in the prediction of the climate and in turn the malaria incidences over the region.

Predicting climate-driven distribution shifts in Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Hyalomma marginatum is an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports of H. marginatum in central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach to model the current and future climatic suitability of H. marginatum was followed. Using high-resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations for H. marginatum, ecological niche models were constructed under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Models show that the climatically suitable region for H. marginatum matches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, the models suggest a considerable expansion of H. marginatum's range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, a decline in central Anatolia is also predicted, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.

Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La Réunion

The recent expansion of Aedes albopictus across continents in both tropical and temperate regions and the exponential growth of dengue cases over the past 50 years represent a significant risk to human health. Although climate change is not the only factor responsible for the increase and spread of dengue cases worldwide, it might increase the risk of disease transmission at global and regional scale. Here we show that regional and local variations in climate can induce differential impacts on the abundance of Ae. albopictus. We use the instructive example of Réunion Island with its varied climatic and environmental conditions and benefiting from the availability of meteorological, climatic, entomological and epidemiological data. Temperature and precipitation data based on regional climate model simulations (3 km × 3 km) are used as inputs to a mosquito population model for three different climate emission scenarios. Our objective is to study the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the 2070-2100 time horizon. Our results show the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on Ae. albopictus abundance as a function of elevation and geographical subregion. At low-elevations areas, decreasing precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on environmental carrying capacity and, consequently, on Ae. albopictus abundance. At mid- and high-elevations, decreasing precipitation is expected to be counterbalanced by a significant warming, leading to faster development rates at all life stages, and consequently increasing the abundance of this important dengue vector in 2070-2100.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Nitrogen dioxide as proxy indicator of air pollution from fossil fuel burning in New Delhi during lockdown phases of COVID-19 pandemic period: impact on weather as revealed by Sentinel-5 precursor (5p) spectrometer sensor

There has been a long-lasting impact of the lockdown imposed due to COVID-19 on several fronts. One such front is climate which has seen several implications. The consequences of climate change owing to this lockdown need to be explored taking into consideration various climatic indicators. Further impact on a local and global level would help the policymakers in drafting effective rules for handling challenges of climate change. For in-depth understanding, a temporal study is being conducted in a phased manner in the New Delhi region taking NO2 concentration and utilizing statistical methods to elaborate the quality of air during the lockdown and compared with a pre-lockdown period. In situ mean values of the NO2 concentration were taken for four different dates, viz. 4th February, 4th March, 4th April, and 25th April 2020. These concentrations were then compared with the Sentinel (5p) data across 36 locations in New Delhi which are found to be promising. The results indicated that the air quality has been improved maximum in Eastern Delhi and the NO2 concentrations were reduced by one-fourth than the pre-lockdown period, and thus, reduced activities due to lockdown have had a significant impact. The result also indicates the preciseness of Sentinel (5p) for NO2 concentrations.

Global assessment of the distribution and conservation status of a key medicinal plant (Artemisia annua L.): The roles of climate and anthropogenic activities

As a medicinal plant, Artemisia annua L. is the main source of artemisinin in malaria drugs, but the lack of understanding of its distribution, environmental conditions and protection status limits the mass acquisition of artemisinin. Therefore, we used the ensemble forecast method to model the current and future global distribution areas of A. annua, evaluated the changes in suitable distribution areas on each continent under impacts of human activities and climate change, and its protection status on each continent in the corresponding period. The results showed that the main distribution areas of A. annua were concentrated in mid-latitudes in western and central Europe, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America and southeastern South America. Under the current climate scenario, human modifications have greatly reduced the suitable distribution area of A. annua, which was projected to expand inland with climate change and human socioeconomic impacts of CMIP6 in the future, but the effects of increasing temperature were different in different periods. Among all continents, the suitable distribution area in Europe was the most affected. However, at present and in the future, A. annua needs high priority protection on all continents. Asia and Europe have slightly better protection status scores than other continents, but the protection status scores of all continents are still very low. Our findings can be useful to guide development of protective measures for medicinal plants such as A. annua to further support drug production and disease treatment.

Differential effects of environmental climatic variables on parasite abundances in blue tit nests during a decade

Models on climate change have predicted an increase of temperature over the earth's surface with potential drastic effects on living organisms. We analyzed the relationships between climatic conditions (temperature, rainfall, and wind speed) and the abundance of blood‐sucking flying insects (biting midges and blackflies) and nest‐dwelling ectoparasites (mites, fleas, and blowflies) collected from blue tit nests during bird breeding seasons for a period of 10 years. Average temperature, rainfall, and wind speed showed significant differences among years. Temperature and wind speed increased during the period of study while rainfall decreased. Biting midge, blackfly, and blowfly abundances increased across years but not flea and mite abundances. Hatching date decreased and brood size increased across years. Independently of year variation, parasites were related to climatic variables. For example, biting midge, blowfly, mite, and flea abundances were positive and significantly related to average temperature. We also found a positive and significant relationship between abundances of Haemoproteus infections and biting midge abundances during the first year of life of birds out of nests. However, abundance and prevalence of Lankesterella infections in yearlings were positive and significantly related to mite abundances during the year of birth of birds. Leucocytozoon and Lankesterella infections were also significantly related to climatic variables and Haemoproteus and Lankesterella infections increased across years. In addition, body condition of adult females and males were negatively related to flea larvae and blowfly abundance respectively. Nestling body condition was also negatively related to biting midge abundance. Changes in climatic conditions across years could therefore affect several parasites of birds but also to birds themselves.

Understanding the effect of climate change in the distribution and intensity of malaria transmission over India using a dynamical malaria model

Efforts have been made to quantify the spatio-temporal malaria transmission intensity over India using the dynamical malaria model, namely, Vector-borne Disease Community Model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (VECTRI). The likely effect of climate change in the variability of malaria transmission intensity over different parts of India is also investigated. The Historical data and future projection scenarios of the rainfall and temperature derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output are used for this purpose. The Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Vector are taken as quantifiers of malaria transmission intensity. It is shown that the maximum number of malaria cases over India occur during the Sept-Oct months, whereas the minimum during the Feb-Apr months. The malaria transmission intensity as well as length of transmission season over India is likely to increase in the future climate as a result of global warming.

Ecological, Social, and Other Environmental Determinants of Dengue Vector Abundance in Urban and Rural Areas of Northeastern Thailand

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue globally. The variables that influence the abundance of dengue vectors are numerous and complex. This has generated a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission, the spatial-temporal distribution of vectors, and the factors that modulate vector abundance. To help guide and improve vector-control efforts, this study identified the ecological, social, and other environmental risk factors that affect the abundance of adult female and immature Ae. aegypti in households in urban and rural areas of northeastern Thailand. A one-year entomological study was conducted in four villages of northeastern Thailand between January and December 2019. Socio-demographic; self-reported prior dengue infections; housing conditions; durable asset ownership; water management; characteristics of water containers; knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding climate change and dengue; and climate data were collected. Household crowding index (HCI), premise condition index (PCI), socio-economic status (SES), and entomological indices (HI, CI, BI, and PI) were calculated. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLMs) were fitted to identify the risk factors associated with the abundance of adult females and immature Ae. aegypti. Urban sites had higher entomological indices and numbers of adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes than rural sites. Overall, participants’ KAP about climate change and dengue were low in both settings. The fitted GLM showed that a higher abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with many factors, such as a low education level of household respondents, crowded households, poor premise conditions, surrounding house density, bathrooms located indoors, unscreened windows, high numbers of wet containers, a lack of adult control, prior dengue infections, poor climate change adaptation, dengue, and vector-related practices. Many of the above were also significantly associated with a high abundance of immature mosquito stages. The GLM model also showed that maximum and mean temperature with four-and one-to-two weeks of lag were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the abundance of adult and immature mosquitoes, respectively, in northeastern Thailand. The low KAP regarding climate change and dengue highlights the engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors are important for the critical first step toward developing routine Aedes surveillance and reliable early warning systems for effective dengue and other mosquito-borne disease prevention and control strategies at the household and community levels in this region and similar settings elsewhere.

Factors Affecting Adaptation to Climate Change through Agroforestry in Kenya

The environmental effects of climate change have significantly decreased agricultural productivity. Agroforestry technologies have been applied as a solution to promote sustainable agricultural systems. This study evaluates the factors influencing the adoption of agroforestry technology in Kenya. A multistage sampling technique was employed to collect data from 239 households in West Pokot County, Kenya. A Probit model and K-means algorithm were used to analyze the factors affecting farmers’ agroforestry technology adoption decisions based on the sampled households’ socio-economic, demographic, and farm characteristics. The study found that the total yield for maize crop, farm size, extension frequency, off-farm income, access to training, access to credit, access to transport facilities, group membership, access to market, gender, distance to nearest trading center, and household education level had significant effects on the adoption of agroforestry technologies. The findings of this study are important in informing policy formulation and implementation that promotes agroforestry technologies adoption.

Experimental manipulation of cavity temperature produces differential effects on parasite abundances in blue tit nests at two different latitudes

Although different predictive models forecast that climate change will alter the distribution and incidence of parasitic diseases, few studies have investigated how microclimatic changes may affect host-parasite relationships. In this study, we experimentally increased the temperature inside nest boxes of the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus during the nestling period at two different latitudes (central Spain and central Germany) to determine its effect on parasite abundance. The two localities have contrasting climate conditions: the southern one in Spain is warmer and drier than the northern one in Germany. Consistent with this, we observed that the parasitic fauna in nests at the two localities differs. The flea species Ceratophyllus gallinae was more abundant in the northern locality, while the blowfly species Protocalliphora azurea and biting midge species of the genus Culicoides were more abundant in the southern one, as were blood parasites. Moreover, dermanyssid mites and blackflies (Simuliidae) were observed only in the southern locality. The temperature inside nest boxes was increased using heat mats placed underneath the nest material during the nestling period (day 3 to day13 post-hatching). Compared with control nests, the average temperature in heated nests increased by 2.24 °C and 1.35 °C at night in Spain and Germany, respectively. Consequently, the average relative humidity in heated versus control nests decreased 4.93 and 0.82 units in Spain and Germany, respectively. The abundance of blowfly pupae in the heated nests was significantly lower than that of control nests at both localities. The abundance of larval fleas was also lower in the heated nests, but only at the Spanish locality. Infection by the blood parasites Haemoproteus/Plasmodium was higher in males attending the heated nests in Germany, and the control nests in Spain. Moreover, both male body mass and nestling wing length were negatively related to the abundance of larval fleas. In conclusion, our results indicate that increased temperature at the nestling stage may affect the fitness of blue tits by altering parasite prevalence rates.

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Temperature increase inside blue tit nest boxes affects ectoparasite abundance at two different localities.

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Blowfly and flea larvae abundances were negatively affected by increase in temperature.

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Male body mass and nestling wing length were negatively related to the abundance of flea larvae.

Spatial patterns of pathogen prevalence in questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia, 2016

Tick-borne pathogens cause diseases in animals and humans, and tick-borne disease incidence is increasing in many parts of the world. There is a need to assess the distribution of tick-borne pathogens and identify potential risk areas. We collected 29,440 tick nymphs from 50 sites in Scandinavia from August to September, 2016. We tested ticks in a real-time PCR chip, screening for 19 vector-associated pathogens. We analysed spatial patterns, mapped the prevalence of each pathogen and used machine learning algorithms and environmental variables to develop predictive prevalence models. All 50 sites had a pool prevalence of at least 33% for one or more pathogens, the most prevalent being Borrelia afzelii, B. garinii, Rickettsia helvetica, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Neoehrlichia mikurensis. There were large differences in pathogen prevalence between sites, but we identified only limited geographical clustering. The prevalence models performed poorly, with only models for R. helvetica and N. mikurensis having moderate predictive power (normalized RMSE from 0.74-0.75, R2 from 0.43-0.48). The poor performance of the majority of our prevalence models suggest that the used environmental and climatic variables alone do not explain pathogen prevalence patterns in Scandinavia, although previously the same variables successfully predicted spatial patterns of ticks in the same area.

Range expansion of muskox lungworms track rapid arctic warming: implications for geographic colonization under climate forcing

Rapid climate warming in the Arctic results in multifaceted disruption of biodiversity, faunal structure, and ecosystem health. Hypotheses have linked range expansion and emergence of parasites and diseases to accelerating warming globally but empirical studies demonstrating causality are rare. Using historical data and recent surveys as baselines, we explored climatological drivers for Arctic warming as determinants of range expansion for two temperature-dependent lungworms, Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis and Varestrongylus eleguneniensis, of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus), in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1980 through 2017. Our field data shows a substantial northward shift of the northern edge of the range for both parasites and increased abundance across the expanded ranges during the last decade. Mechanistic models parameterized with parasites’ thermal requirements demonstrated that geographical colonization tracked spatial expansion of permissive environments, with a temporal lag. Subtle differences in life histories, thermal requirements of closely related parasites, climate oscillations and shifting thermal balances across environments influence faunal assembly and biodiversity. Our findings support that persistence of host-parasite assemblages reflects capacities of parasites to utilize host and environmental resources in an ecological arena of fluctuating opportunity (alternating trends in exploration and exploitation) driving shifting boundaries for distribution across spatial and temporal scales.

What can we learn from previous pandemics to reduce the frequency of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19?

The global risks report of 2020 stated, climate-related issues dominate all of the top-five long-term critical global risks burning the planet and according to the report, "as existing health risks resurge and new ones emerge, humanity's past successes in overcoming health challenges are no guarantee of future results." Over the last few decades, the world has experienced several pandemic outbreaks of various pathogens and the frequency of the emergence of novel strains of infectious organisms has increased in recent decades. As per expert opinion, rapidly mutating viruses, emergence and re-emergence of epidemics with increasing frequencies, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be increasing over the years and the trends will continue and intensify. Susceptible disease hosts, anthropogenic activities and environmental changes contribute and trigger the 'adaptive evolution' of infectious agents to thrive and spread into different ecological niches and to adapt to new hosts. The overarching objective of this paper is to provide insight into the human actions which should be strictly regulated to help to sustain life on earth. To identify and categorize the triggering factors that contribute to disease ecology, especially repeated emergence of disease pandemics, a theory building approach, 'Total Interpretive Structural Modeling' (TISM) was used; also the tool, 'Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification' analysis (MICMAC) was applied to rank the risk factors based on their impacts on other factors and on the interdependence among them. This mathematical modeling tool clearly explains the strength, position and interconnectedness of each anthropogenic factor that contributes to the evolution of pathogens and to the frequent emergence of pandemics which needs to be addressed with immediate priority. As we are least prepared for another pandemic outbreak, significant policy attention must be focused on the causative factors to limit emerging outbreaks like COVID 19 in the future.

Climate change and its potential for altering the phenology and ecology of some common and widespread arthropod parasites in New Zealand

Climate change, in the form of global warming, is a current concern and because farming systems, livestock parasites and their hosts are influenced by the weather, it is possible to predict (albeit with some uncertainty) changes in these in some broadly descriptive fashion, as climate changes. This review examines the on- and off-host responses to potential changes in temperature and humidity of a representative selection of arthropod ectoparasites (sheep chewing louse, Bovicola ovis; sheep blowflies, Lucilla spp., Calliphora stygia, and Chrysomya rufifacies; cattle tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis; scrotal mange mite, Chorioptes bovis; cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis; and dog flea, Ctenocephalides canis) that occur in New Zealand and in many other countries, and how these environmental factors can be perturbed by host manipulation. The bioclimatic preferences of the parasites are examined in relation to future broad climate parameters and how parasite life cycles, seasonality and population dynamics may be influenced. Likely adaptations of farming systems to meet climate change imperatives are briefly discussed. Collectively it is estimated that regions of New Zealand faced with warmer, wetter conditions under climate change may see an increase in flystrike and cattle tick prevalence, and perhaps an increase in the biting louse, but fewer chorioptic mange and flea infestations. In contrast, drier, warmer regions will possibly experience fewer ectoparasites of all types with the exception of flea infestations. Economic effects of increases in ectoparasite prevalence, using approximate dipping costs as a model are examined, and risks posed to New Zealand by some exotic arthropod parasites with the potential to invade under climate change, are briefly outlined.

Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: the detailed investigation in Sri Lanka

Background

Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. The current study aimed to evaluate the climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of local communities to dengue in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka.

Methods

A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all MOH areas for dengue were calculated using the composite index approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Results

Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: six variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: six variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the KMC MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy.

Conclusions

In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. Vector Controlling Entities are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management.

Estimating the malaria transmission over the Indian subcontinent in a warming environment using a dynamical malaria model

Malaria is a major public health problem in India. The malaria transmission is sensitive to climatic parameters. The regional population-related factors also influence malaria transmission. To take into account temperature and rainfall variability and associated population-related effects (in a changing climate) on the malaria transmission over India, a regional dynamical malaria model, namely VECTRI (vector-borne disease community model) is used. The daily temperature and rainfall data derived from the historical (years 1961-2005) and representative concentration pathway (years 2006-2050) runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models have been used for the analysis. The model results of the historical run are compared with the observational data. The spatio-temporal changes (region-specific as well as seasonal changes) in the malaria transmission as a result of climate change are quantified over the India. The parameters related to the breeding cycle of malaria as well as those which estimate the malaria cases are analyzed in the global warming scenario.

Assessing entomological risk factors for arboviral disease transmission in the French Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands

Background

The French overseas Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands has been affected by several dengue epidemics. Aedes polynesiensis is the main mosquito vector described in this territory. Other Aedes species have been reported, but recent entomological data are missing to infer the presence of other potential arbovirus vectors and to assess the entomological risk factors for transmission of arboviral diseases.

Methodology/ Principal findings

An entomological prospective study was conducted on the three main islands of the territory to determine the presence and distribution of Aedes spp. Larvae, pupae and adult mosquitoes were collected from 54 sampling points in different environments, with a final sampling of 3747 immature stages and 606 adults. The main identified breeding sites were described. Ae. polynesiensis was found in every sampled site in peridomestic and wild habitats. Ae. aegypti was only found on the island of Wallis in peridomestic environments with a limited distribution. Two other Aedes species endemic to the Pacific were recorded, Aedes oceanicus and Aedes futunae. To evaluate the ability of local Ae. polynesiensis to transmit the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), two field populations were analyzed for vector competence using experimental oral exposure of females to CHIKV and infection, dissemination and transmission assays. Results showed that both populations of Ae. polynesiensis were competent for CHIKV (30% at 7 days post-infection).

Conclusions/Significance

This study showed the ubiquitous distribution and abundance of Ae. polynesiensis on the three islands and demonstrated that local populations were able to transmit CHIKV. Combined with the presence and expansion of Ae. aegypti on the main island of Wallis, these data highlight the risk of transmission of arboviral diseases in the territory of Wallis and Futuna and provide relevant information for entomological surveillance and vector control programs.

The French overseas Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands, located in the South Pacific, has been affected by several dengue epidemics, but did not face Zika or chikungunya outbreaks, unlike other neighboring islands. The near-exclusive presence of the Aedes polynesiensis mosquito in the islands of Wallis and Futuna confirmed the role played by this mosquito as a vector of dengue fever. A local Ae. polynesiensis population was recently shown to be able to transmit the Zika virus under experimental conditions, but its susceptibility to the chikungunya virus was still unknown, and recent data on the presence of other potential arbovirus vectors were missing. Therefore, we investigated the entomological risk factors for the transmission of arboviral diseases in the Wallis and Futuna Islands. We reported the occurrence and distribution of different Aedes species, especially the abundant presence of Ae. polynesiensis across the territory and the spread of Ae. aegypti in the island of Wallis. Our results demonstrated the ability of local Ae. polynesiensis populations to transmit the chikungunya virus. These findings highlight the risk of arbovirus transmission in the Wallis and Futuna Islands and provide relevant data to guide prevention and vector control strategies in the territory.

Climate Change according to Ecuadorian academics–Perceptions versus facts

Climate change has become one of the most important topics in each country’s government agendas. The current effects demand quicker actions in order to decrease the speed at which the global warming and climate is changing, which are commonly seen in global agreements to reduce pollution. However, the main changes to face and mitigate such phenomena depends on each country´s decision and not on global agreements as the causes are continent-wide although the effects and magnitudes may be local. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the population have over national decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about what is occurring in their surroundings vital, thus the importance of a correct information broadcast and education. For the aforementioned reasons, the current study compares the recent perception of a well-educated Ecuadorean community regarding the climate change worldwide and in Ecuador with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it affects its vulnerability to the climate change effects.

Climatic Conditions: Conventional and Nanotechnology-Based Methods for the Control of Mosquito Vectors Causing Human Health Issues

Climate variability is highly impacting on mosquito-borne diseases causing malaria and dengue fever across the globe. Seasonal variability change in temperature and rainfall patterns are impacting on human health. Mosquitoes cause diseases like dengue fever, yellow fever, malaria, Chikungunya, West Nile and Japanese encephalitis. According to estimations by health organizations, annually one million human deaths are caused by vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever has increased about 30-fold over the past 50 years. Similarly, over 200 million cases of malaria are being reported annually. Mosquito-borne diseases are sensitive to temperature, humidity and seasonal variability. Both conventional (environmental, chemical, mechanical, biological etc.) and nanotechnology-based (Liposomes, nano-suspensions and polymer-based nanoparticles) approaches are used for the eradication of Malaria and dengue fever. Now green approaches are used to eradicate mosquitoes to save human health without harming the environment. In this review, the impact of climatic conditions on mosquito-borne diseases along with conventional and nanotechnology-based approaches used for controlling malaria and dengue fever have been discussed. Important recommendations have been made for people to stay healthy.

Long-term shifts in the seasonal abundance of adult Culicoides biting midges and their impact on potential arbovirus outbreaks

Surveillance of adult Culicoides biting midge flight activity is used as an applied ecological method to guide the management of arbovirus incursions on livestock production in Europe and Australia.To date the impact of changes in the phenology of adult vector activity on arbovirus transmission has not been defined. We investigated this at two sites in the UK, identifying 150,000 Culicoides biting midges taken from 2867 collections over a nearly 40 year timescale.Whilst we recorded no change in seasonal activity at one site, shifts in first adult appearance and last adult appearance increased the seasonal activity period of Culicoides species at the other site by 40 days over the time period.Lengthening of the adult activity season was driven by an increase in abundance of Culicoides and correlated with local increases in temperature and precipitation. This diversity in responses poses significant challenges for predicting future transmission and overwintering risk. Policy implications. Our analysis not only shows a dramatic and consistent increase in the adult active period of Culicoides biting midges, but also that this varies significantly between sites. This suggests broad-scale analyses alone are insufficient to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate on arbovirus vector populations. Understanding the impact of climate change on adult Culicoides seasonality and transmission of arboviruses requires the context of changes in a range of other local ecological drivers.

Impact of past and on-going changes on climate and weather on vector-borne diseases transmission: a look at the evidence

Background

The climate variables that directly influence vector-borne diseases’ ecosystems are mainly temperature and rainfall. This is not only because the vectors bionomics are strongly dependent upon these variables, but also because most of the elements of the systems are impacted, such as the host behavior and development and the pathogen amplification. The impact of the climate changes on the transmission patterns of these diseases is not easily understood, since many confounding factors are acting together. Consequently, knowledge of these impacts is often based on hypothesis derived from mathematical models. Nevertheless, some direct evidences can be found for several vector-borne diseases.

Main body

Evidences of the impact of climate change are available for malaria, arbovirus diseases such as dengue, and many other parasitic and viral diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, Japanese encephalitis, human African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis. The effect of temperature and rainfall change as well as extreme events, were found to be the main cause for outbreaks and are alarming the global community. Among the main driving factors, climate strongly influences the geographical distribution of insect vectors, which is rapidly changing due to climate change. Further, in both models and direct evidences, climate change is seen to be affecting vector-borne diseases more strikingly in fringe of different climatic areas often in the border of transmission zones, which were once free of these diseases with human populations less immune and more receptive. The impact of climate change is also more devastating because of the unpreparedness of Public Health systems to provide adequate response to the events, even when climatic warning is available. Although evidences are strong at the regional and local levels, the studies on impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and health are producing contradictory results at the global level.

Conclusions

In this paper we discuss the current state of the results and draw on evidences from malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases to illustrate the state of current thinking and outline the need for further research to inform our predictions and response.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-019-0565-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.

A systematic evidence review of the effect of climate change on malaria in Iran

Climate is an effective factor in the ecological structure which plays an important role in control and outbreak of the diseases caused by biological factors like malaria. With regard to the occurring climatic change, this study aimed to review the effects of climate change on malaria in Iran. In this systematic review, Cochrane, PubMed and ScienceDirect (as international databases), SID and Magiran as Persian databases were investigated through MESH keywords including climate change, global warming, malaria, Anopheles, and Iran. The related articles were screened and finally their results were extracted using data extraction sheets. Totally 41 papers were resulted through databases searching process. Finally 14 papers which met inclusion criteria were included in data extraction stage. The findings indicated that Anopheles mosquitoes are present at least in 115 places in Iran; they are compatible with climatic zones of Iran. Malaria and it's vectors are affected by climate change. Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind intensity and direction are the most important climatic factors affecting the growth and proliferation of Anopheles, Plasmodium and the prevalence of malaria. The transmission of malaria in Iran is associated with the climatic factors of temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Therefore, with regard to the occurring climatic change, the incidence of the disease may also change which needs to be taken into consideration while planning of malaria control.

Review: Adaptation of ruminant livestock production systems to climate changes

There is growing evidence on the extent to which projected changes in climate, including increases in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, higher temperatures, changes in amount, seasonality and variability of precipitation and increases in extreme weather events, may affect future availability of ruminant animal products. Elements of climate change affect livestock systems through direct impacts on animal physiology, behaviour, production and welfare and indirectly through feed availability, composition and quality. These impacts may be positive or negative and will vary across geographical regions, animal species and with adaptive capacity. However, adverse impacts are likely to be greatest in tropical and sub-tropical regions including countries where both current need and future growth in demand for nutrition is greatest. The complexity of effects means that effective adaptation strategies to mitigate negative impacts on ruminant production systems to climate changes will need to be multi-dimensional. Although predictions of future climate, particularly on regional and local scales, have a degree of uncertainty, adaptation planning is starting to be informed by changes already being observed and adjustments in management being made by farmers to maintain productivity and profitability. Regional case studies illustrate the benefits and limitations of adaptive management: potential mitigation through heightened awareness of heat stress-related mortality in French cattle; evidence of a drop in milk production in south-eastern Australian dairies during a January 2014 heat wave, from the theoretical potential of 53% to only 10% across the state; and limitations in response options to climate-induced thermal, nutritional and water stress for sheep and goat farmers in northern Ethiopia. Review of research on climate change impacts on ruminant livestock and effective adaptation together with evidence of practical adaptive management provide insights into potential strategies and gaps in knowledge to address challenges and improve future decisions.

Temporal Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Flies Population in Response to Ambient Temperature Variation, Bam, Kerman Province of Iran

BACKGROUND

Variations in climate condition may have changed the dynamic of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and its agents such as sand flies and reservoir in the Bam Kerman the dry region of Iran.

OBJECTIVES

In this study we intend to examine the seasonal and interannual dynamics of the phlebotomine mosquito as a function of ambient temperature in Bam, Kerman one of the main leshmaniasis prevalence area in Iran.

METHODS

The MODIS land surface temperature product (LST; MODIS/Terra LST/E Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG [MOD11C3]) and land-based climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Monthly caught mosquitoes in Bam, Kerman, were used as a dependent variable. The temporal associations were first investigated by inspection of scatterplots and single-variable regression analysis. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to reveal the association between ambient temperature and the monthly mosquito abundance at a 95% confidence level (P < 0.05).

FINDINGS

The findings indicated that the monthly variation of 0-10 cm of soil depth temperature is the main driver of phlebotomine mosquito temporal dynamics. The developed multivariate model also indicated that the ambient temperature variation was responsible for >0.80 of temporal dynamics of phlebotomine mosquitos in Bam.

Risks, Health Consequences, and Response Challenges for Small-Island-Based Populations: Observations From the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

ABSTRACTThe intensely active 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season provided an opportunity to examine how climate drivers, including warming oceans and rising seas, exacerbated tropical cyclone hazards. The season also highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of populations residing on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to the catastrophic potential of these storms. During 2017, 22 of the 29 Caribbean SIDS were affected by at least one named storm, and multiple SIDS experienced extreme damage. This paper aims to review the multiplicity of storm impacts on Caribbean SIDS throughout the 2017 season, to explicate the influences of climate drivers on storm formation and intensity, to explore the propensity of SIDS to sustain severe damage and prolonged disruption of essential services, to document the spectrum of public health consequences, and to delineate the daunting hurdles that challenged emergency response and recovery operations for island-based, disaster-affected populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:5-17).

The costs of living in a thermal fluctuating environment for the tropical haematophagous bug, Rhodnius prolixus

Environmental temperature is an abiotic factor with great influence on biological processes of living beings. Jensen's inequality states that for non-lineal processes, such as most biological phenomena, the effects of thermal fluctuations cannot be predicted from mean constant temperatures. We studied the effect of daily temperature fluctuation (DTF) on Rhodnius prolixus, a model organism in insect physiology, and an important vector of Chagas disease. We measured development time from egg to adult, fecundity, fertility, body mass reduction rate (indirect measurement of nutrient consumption rates) and survival after a single blood meal. Insects were reared at constant temperature (24 °C), or with a DTF (17-32 °C; mean = 24 °C). Taking into account Jensen's inequality as well as the species tropical distribution, we predict that living in a variable thermal environment will have higher costs than inhabiting a stable one. Development time and fertility were not affected by DTF. However, fecundity was lower in females reared at DTF than at constant temperature, and males had higher body mass reduction rate and lower survival in the DTF regime, suggesting higher costs associated to fluctuating thermal environments. At a population and epidemiological level, higher energetic costs would imply an increase in nutrient consumption rate, biting frequency, and, consequently increasing disease transmission from infected insects. On the contrary, lower fecundity could be associated with a decrease in population growth. This knowledge will not only provide basic information to the field of insect ecophysiology, but also could be a useful background to develop population and disease transmission models.

Seasonal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis and Associated Meteorological Factors in Taiwan

The persistent transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Taiwan necessitates exploring the risk factors of occurrence of Japanese encephalitis (JE). The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of JE in Taiwan. We collected data for cases of JE reported to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) from 2000 to 2014. Meteorological data were obtained from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The relationships between weather variability and the incidence of JE in Taiwan were determined via Poisson regression analysis and a case-crossover methodology. During the 15-year study period, a total of 379 cases of JE were reported. The incidence of JE showed significant seasonality, with the majority of cases occurring in summertime (for oscillation, p < 0.001). The number of JE cases started to increase at temperatures of 22 °C (r² = 0.88, p < 0.001). Similarly, the number of JE cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 70-74% (r² = 0.75, p < 0.005). The number of JE cases was positively associated with mean temperature and relative humidity in the period preceding the infection. In conclusion, the occurrence of JE is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.

Surveillance of Ixodes ricinus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in Iceland

Background

Ixodes ricinus is a three-host tick, a principal vector of Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) and one of the main vectors of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus. Iceland is located in the North Atlantic Ocean with subpolar oceanic climate. During the past 3–4 decades, average temperature has increased, supporting more favourable conditions for ticks. Reports of I. ricinus have increased in recent years. If these ticks were able to establish in a changing climate, Iceland may face new threats posed by tick-borne diseases.

Methods

Active field surveillance by tick flagging was conducted at 111 sites around Iceland from August 2015 to September 2016. Longworth mammal traps were used to trap Apodemus sylvaticus in southwestern and southern Iceland. Surveillance on tick importation by migratory birds was conducted in southeastern Iceland, using bird nets and a Heligoland trap. Vulpes lagopus carcasses from all regions of the country were inspected for ticks. In addition, existing and new passive surveillance data from two institutes have been merged and are presented. Continental probability of presence models were produced. Boosted Regression Trees spatial modelling methods and its predictions were assessed against reported presence.

Results

By field sampling 26 questing I. ricinus ticks (7 males, 3 females and 16 nymphs) were collected from vegetation from three locations in southern and southeastern Iceland. Four ticks were found on migratory birds at their arrival in May 2016. A total of 52 A. sylvaticus were live-trapped but no ticks were found nor on 315 V. lagopus carcasses. Passive surveillance data collected since 1976, reports further 214 I. ricinus ticks from 202 records, with an increase of submissions in recent years. The continental probability of presence model correctly predicts approximately 75% of the recorded presences, but fails to predict a fairly specific category of recorded presence in areas where the records are probably opportunistic and not likely to lead to establishment.

Conclusions

To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first finding of questing I. ricinus ticks in Iceland. The species could possibly be established locally in Iceland in low abundance, although no questing larvae have yet been detected to confirm established populations. Submitted tick records have increased recently, which may reflect an increase in exposure, or in interest in ticks. Furthermore, the amount of records on dogs, cats and humans indicate that ticks were acquired locally, presenting a local biting risk. Tick findings on migratory birds highlight a possible route of importation. Obtaining questing larvae is now a priority to confirm that I. ricinus populations are established in Iceland. Further surveys on wild mammals (e.g. Rangifer tarandus), livestock and migratory birds are recommended to better understand their role as potential hosts for I. ricinus.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-017-2375-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected.

Sleeping site ecology, but not sex, affect ecto- and hemoparasite risk, in sympatric, arboreal primates (Avahi occidentalis and Lepilemur edwardsi)

Background

A central question in evolutionary parasitology is to what extent ecology impacts patterns of parasitism in wild host populations. In this study, we aim to disentangle factors influencing the risk of parasite exposure by exploring the impact of sleeping site ecology on infection with ectoparasites and vector-borne hemoparasites in two sympatric primates endemic to Madagascar. Both species live in the same dry deciduous forest of northwestern Madagascar and cope with the same climatic constraints, they are arboreal, nocturnal, cat-sized and pair-living but differ prominently in sleeping site ecology. The Western woolly lemur (Avahi occidentalis) sleeps on open branches and frequently changes sleeping sites, whereas the Milne-Edward’s sportive lemur (Lepilemur edwardsi) uses tree holes, displaying strong sleeping site fidelity. Sleeping in tree holes should confer protection from mosquito-borne hemoparasites, but should enhance the risk for ectoparasite infestation with mites and nest-adapted ticks. Sex may affect parasite risk in both species comparably, with males bearing a higher risk than females due to an immunosuppressive effect of higher testosterone levels in males or to sex-specific behavior. To explore these hypotheses, ectoparasites and blood samples were collected from 22 individuals of A. occidentalis and 26 individuals of L. edwardsi during the dry and rainy season.

Results

L. edwardsi, but not A. occidentalis, harbored ectoparasites, namely ticks (Haemaphysalis lemuris [Ixodidae], Ornithodoros sp. [Argasidae]) and mites (Aetholaelaps trilyssa, [Laelapidae]), suggesting that sleeping in tree holes promotes infestation with ectoparasites. Interestingly, ectoparasites were found solely in the hot, rainy season with a prevalence of 75% (N = 16 animals). Blood smears were screened for the presence and infection intensity of hemoparasites. Microfilariae were detected in both species. Morphological characteristics suggested that each lemur species harbored two different filarial species. Prevalence of microfilarial infection was significantly lower in L. edwardsi than in A. occidentalis. No significant difference in infection intensity between the two host species, and no effect of season, daytime of sampling or sex on prevalence or infection intensity was found. In neither host species, parasite infection showed an influence on body weight as an indicator for body condition.

Conclusions

Our findings support that sleeping site ecology affects ectoparasite infestation in nocturnal, arboreal mammalian hosts in the tropics, whereas there is no significant effect of host sex. The influence of sleeping site ecology to vector-borne hemoparasite risk is less pronounced. The observed parasite infections did not affect body condition and thus may be of minor importance for shaping reproductive fitness. Findings provide first evidence for the specific relevance of sleeping site ecology on parasitism in arboreal and social mammals. Further, our results increase the sparse knowledge on ecological drivers of primate host-parasite interactions and transmission pathways in natural tropical environments.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12983-017-0228-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Phlebotomines in an area endemic for American cutaneous leishmaniasis in northeastern coast of Brazil

Abstract Phlebotomines have worldwide distribution with many species present in Brazil, including the northeastern region, where the fauna is very diverse. The aim of this study was to identify the sandfly fauna in an area endemic for American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) in the state of Pernambuco. Sandflies were caught on three consecutive nights every month from October 2015 to September 2016, from 5 pm to 5 am, using seven light traps of Centers for Disease Control (CDC) type. Females were identified and used for molecular Leishmania detection. A total of 2,174 specimens belonging to ten species were collected: Lutzomyia choti (88.2%; 1,917/2,174) was the most abundant species, followed by Lutzomyia whitmani (8.1%; 176/2,174) and Lutzomyia sordellii (1.5%; 33/2,174). The majority of the specimens were collected in peridomestic areas (64.1%; 1,394/2,174) and during the rainy period. All the samples examined were negative for Leishmania spp. The presence of Lutzomyia whitmani indoors and in peridomestic areas indicates that the inhabitants of this area are exposed to the risk of infection by the parasites responsible for ACL.

Climate change and cattle vector-borne diseases: Use of participatory epidemiology to investigate experiences in pastoral communities in Northern Tanzania

Climate change is predicted to increase incidence of vector-borne diseases in humans, however, little is known about the impact of such diseases in livestock. In the absence of historical data with which to examine the inter-relation between climate and disease, participatory epidemiological (PE) methods were used with Maasai pastoralists of Monduli District, northern Tanzania to establish local observations on two major vector-borne diseases of cattle, namely East Coast fever (ECF) and African animal trypanosomiasis (AAT). Data collection involving gender segregated groups (10 men groups and 9 women groups) occurred in 10 randomly selected villages between November 2014 and March 2015. ECF and AAT were ranked amongst the top 5 most important cattle diseases with strong agreement across informant groups (Kendall's W=0.40 for men and 0.45 for women; p<0.01). Matrix scoring for both men and women groups confirmed that Masaai easily recognize these diseases. All groups associated ECF with the wet and cool dry seasons. AAT was more variable throughout the year, with more cases reported in the long dry season. Likewise, pastoralists reported differences in seasonal occurrence of disease vectors (Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Glossina spp.) by village. Comparing 2014-1984, participant groups consistently reported declines in rainfall, vegetation cover and quality pasture, as well as increases in severe droughts. Experiences with ECF/AAT and vector abundance between these time periods was more variable across villages, and likely relates to changes in climate and animal management practices over the last 30 years. This baseline study is the first to document the inter-relation between climate and cattle vector-borne disease from the pastoralist perspective. Findings from this study reveal a complex interplay between human, animal and environmental factors, understanding of which is urgently required to devise approaches to mitigate effects of climate change in these vulnerable areas.

Systematic Assessment of the Climate Sensitivity of Important Human and Domestic Animals Pathogens in Europe

Climate change is expected to threaten human health and well-being via its effects on climate-sensitive infectious diseases, potentially changing their spatial distributions, affecting annual/seasonal cycles, or altering disease incidence and severity. Climate sensitivity of pathogens is a key indicator that diseases might respond to climate change, but the proportion of pathogens that is climate-sensitive, and their characteristics, are not known. The climate sensitivity of European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, and the characteristics associated with sensitivity, were assessed systematically in terms of selection of pathogens and choice of literature reviewed. Sixty-three percent (N = 157) of pathogens were climate sensitive; 82% to primary drivers such as rainfall and temperature. Protozoa and helminths, vector-borne, foodborne, soilborne and waterborne transmission routes were associated with larger numbers of climate drivers. Zoonotic pathogens were more climate sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens. Thirty-seven percent of disability-adjusted-life-years arise from human infectious diseases that are sensitive to primary climate drivers. These results help prioritize surveillance for pathogens that may respond to climate change. Although this study identifies a high degree of climate sensitivity among important pathogens, their response to climate change will be dependent on the nature of their association with climate drivers and impacts of other drivers.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

The Use of Spatial and Spatiotemporal Modeling for Surveillance of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in the Middle East

Since 2005, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has severely impacted the economy and public health in the Middle East (ME) with Egypt as the most affected country. Understanding the high-risk areas and spatiotemporal distribution of the H5N1 HPAIV in poultry is prerequisite for establishing risk-based surveillance activities at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aimed to predict the geographic range of H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks in poultry in the ME using a set of environmental variables and to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering of outbreaks in the region. Data from the ME for the period 2005-14 were analyzed using maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the permutation model of the scan statistics. The predicted range of high-risk areas (P > 0.60) for H5N1 HPAIV in poultry included parts of the ME northeastern countries, whereas the Egyptian Nile delta and valley were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictor that contributed to risk for H5N1 HPAIV was the precipitation of the warmest quarter (47.2%), followed by the type of global livestock production system (18.1%). Most significant spatiotemporal clusters (P < 0.001) were detected in Egypt, Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan. Results suggest that more information related to poultry holding demographics is needed to further improve prediction of risk for H5N1 HPAIV in the ME, whereas the methodology presented here may be useful in guiding the design of surveillance programs and in identifying areas in which underreporting may have occurred.

Picky eaters are rare: DNA-based blood meal analysis of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species from the United States

BACKGROUND

Biting midges in the genus Culicoides (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) have been implicated in the transmission of a number of parasites and highly pathogenic viruses. In North America, the complete transmission cycles of many of these pathogens need further elucidation. One way to increase our knowledge about the evolution and ecology of Culicoides species and the pathogens they transmit is to document the diversity of vertebrate hosts that Culicoides feed upon. Our objective was to identify the diversity of Culicoides hosts in the United States.

RESULTS

We sequenced two vertebrate mitochondrial genes (cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 and cytochrome b) from blood-engorged Culicoides to identify Culicoides species and their blood meals. We detected the mitochondrial DNA of 12 host species from seven different Culicoides species from three states. The majority of the identified blood meals were from the C. variipennis species complex in California. The hosts included both mammals and birds. We documented new host records for some of the Culicoides species collected. The majority of the mammalian hosts were large ungulate species but we also detected a lagomorph and a carnivore. The bird species that were detected included house finch and emu; the latter is evidence that the species in the C. variipennis species complex are not strictly mammalophilic.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that Culicoides will feed on multiple classes of vertebrates and may be more opportunistic in regards to host choice than previously thought. This knowledge can help with identification of susceptible host species, pathogen reservoirs, and new vector species which, in turn, will improve disease outbreak risk assessments.

Assessing the Risk Factors Associated with Malaria in the Highlands of Ethiopia: What Do We Need to Know?

Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003⁻2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low malaria transmission areas of Ethiopia by 2020. However, while the overall malaria prevalence has decreased, unpredictable outbreaks increasingly occur irregularly in regions previously considered "malaria-free". Such outbreaks have disastrous consequences on populations of these regions as they have no immunity against malaria. The Amhara Region accounts for 31% of Ethiopia's malaria burden and is targeted for malaria elimination by the FMoH. Amhara's epidemiological surveillance system faces many challenges to detect in a timely manner the unpredictable and irregular malaria outbreaks that occur in areas of otherwise low transmission. Despite the evidence of a shift in malaria transmission patterns, Amhara's malaria control interventions remain constrained to areas that are historically known to have stable malaria transmission. This paper discusses the influence of temperature and precipitation variability, entomological parameters, and human population mobility on malaria transmission patterns across the Amhara Region, and in particular, in areas of unstable transmission. We argue that malaria epidemiological surveillance systems can be improved by accounting for population movements in addition to environmental and entomological factors. However, to date, no study has statistically analyzed the interplay of population dynamics on environmental and entomological drivers of malaria transmission.

Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity

Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework.

A comparative molecular survey of malaria prevalence among Eastern chimpanzee populations in Issa Valley (Tanzania) and Kalinzu (Uganda)

BACKGROUND

Habitat types can affect vector and pathogen distribution and transmission dynamics. The prevalence and genetic diversity of Plasmodium spp. in two eastern chimpanzee populations-Kalinzu Forest Reserve, Uganda and Issa Valley, Tanzania-inhabiting different habitat types was investigated. As a follow up study the effect of host sex and age on infections patterns in Kalinzu Forest Reserve chimpanzees was determined.

METHODS

Molecular methods were employed to detect Plasmodium DNA from faecal samples collected from savanna-woodland (Issa Valley) and forest (Kalinzu Forest Reserve) chimpanzee populations.

RESULTS

Based on a Cytochrome-b PCR assay, 32 out of 160 Kalinzu chimpanzee faecal samples were positive for Plasmodium DNA, whilst no positive sample was detected in 171 Issa Valley chimpanzee faecal samples. Sequence analysis revealed that previously known Laverania species (Plasmodium reichenowi, Plasmodium billbrayi and Plasmodium billcollinsi) are circulating in the Kalinzu chimpanzees. A significantly higher proportion of young individuals were tested positive for infections, and switching of Plasmodium spp. was reported in one individual. Amongst the positive individuals sampled more than once, the success of amplification of Plasmodium DNA from faeces varied over sampling time.

CONCLUSION

The study showed marked differences in the prevalence of malaria parasites among free ranging chimpanzee populations living in different habitats. In addition, a clear pattern of Plasmodium infections with respect to host age was found. The results presented in this study contribute to understanding the ecological aspects underlying the malaria infections in the wild. Nevertheless, integrative long-term studies on vector abundance, Plasmodium diversity during different seasons between sites would provide more insight on the occurrence, distribution and ecology of these pathogens.

Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes

How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.