The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

Geographic conditions impact the relationship between plant phenology and phylogeny

Plant phenology is influenced by a combined effect of phylogeny and climate, although it is yet unclear how these two variables work together to change phenology. We synthesized 107 previously published studies to examine whether phenological changes were impacted by both phylogeny and climate changes in various geographical settings globally. Phenological observation data from 52,463 plant species at 71 sites worldwide revealed that 90 % of phenological records showed phylogenetic conservation. i.e., closely related species exhibited similar phenology. To explore the significant and non-significant phylogenetic conservation between plant phenophases, our dataset comprises 5,47,000 observation records from the four main phenophases (leaf bud, leaf, flower, and fruit). Three-dimensional geographical distribution (altitude, latitude, and longitude) data analysis revealed that plant phenology may exhibit phylogenetic signals at finer special scales (optimal environmental conditions) that vanish in high altitude and latitude regions. Additionally, climatic sensitivity analysis suggested that phylogenetic signals were associated with plant phenophases and were stronger in the regions of ideal temperature (7-18 °C) and photoperiod (10-14 h) and weaker in harsh climatic conditions. These results show that phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits is frequently influenced by the interaction of harsh climatic conditions and geographical ranges. This meta-analysis enhances our knowledge of predicting species responses over geographic gradients under varied climatic conditions.

Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change

Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied-including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.1 days per decade across 1,279 time series across 29 taxonomic classes. We found no evidence that shifts vary by trophic level: shifts were similar when grouped by trophic level, and for species pairs when grouped by their type of interaction-either as paired species known to interact or as randomly paired species. Phenology varied with phylogeny (λ = 0.4), suggesting that uneven sampling of species may affect estimates of phenology and potentially phenological shifts. These results could aid forecasting for well-sampled groups but suggest that climate change has not yet led to widespread increases in phenological asynchrony across interacting species, although substantial biases in current data make forecasting for most groups difficult.

Influence of substitution model selection on protein phylogenetic tree reconstruction

Probabilistic phylogenetic tree reconstruction is traditionally performed under a best-fitting substitution model of molecular evolution previously selected according to diverse statistical criteria. Interestingly, some recent studies proposed that this procedure is unnecessary for phylogenetic tree reconstruction leading to a debate in the field. In contrast to DNA sequences, phylogenetic tree reconstruction from protein sequences is traditionally based on empirical exchangeability matrices that can differ among taxonomic groups and protein families. Considering this aspect, here we investigated the influence of selecting a substitution model of protein evolution on phylogenetic tree reconstruction by the analyses of real and simulated data. We found that phylogenetic tree reconstructions based on a selected best-fitting substitution model of protein evolution are the most accurate, in terms of topology and branch lengths, compared with those derived from substitution models with amino acid replacement matrices far from the selected best-fitting model, especially when the data has large genetic diversity. Indeed, we found that substitution models with similar amino acid replacement matrices produce similar reconstructed phylogenetic trees, suggesting the use of substitution models as similar as possible to a selected best-fitting model when the latter cannot be used. Therefore, we recommend the use of the traditional protocol of selection among substitution models of evolution for protein phylogenetic tree reconstruction.

Systematics and Phylogenetic Interrelationships of the Enigmatic Late Jurassic Shark Protospinax annectans Woodward, 1918 with Comments on the Shark-Ray Sister Group Relationship

The Late Jurassic elasmobranch Protospinax annectans is often regarded as a key species to our understanding of crown group elasmobranch interrelationships and the evolutionary history of this group. However, since its first description more than 100 years ago, its phylogenetic position within the Elasmobranchii (sharks and rays) has proven controversial, and a closer relationship between Protospinax and each of the posited superorders (Batomorphii, Squalomorphii, and Galeomorphii) has been proposed over the time. Here we revise this controversial taxon based on new holomorphic specimens from the Late Jurassic Konservat-Lagerstätte of the Solnhofen Archipelago in Bavaria (Germany) and review its skeletal morphology, systematics, and phylogenetic interrelationships. A data matrix with 224 morphological characters was compiled and analyzed under a molecular backbone constraint. Our results indicate a close relationship between Protospinax, angel sharks (Squatiniformes), and saw sharks (Pristiophoriformes). However, the revision of our morphological data matrix within a molecular framework highlights the lack of morphological characters defining certain groups, especially sharks of the order Squaliformes, hampering the phylogenetic resolution of Protospinax annectans with certainty. Furthermore, the monophyly of modern sharks retrieved by molecular studies is only weakly supported by morphological data, stressing the need for more characters to align morphological and molecular studies in the future.

Autumn phenology of tree species in China is associated more with climate than with spring phenology and phylogeny

Both biotic and abiotic factors restrict changes in autumn phenology, yet their effects remain ambiguous, which hinders the accurate prediction of phenology under future climate change. In this study, based on the phenological records of 135 tree species at ten sites in China during 1979-2018, we first investigated the effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, insolation and wind speed) and spring phenology on interannual changes in leaf coloring date (LCD) with the partial correlation analysis, and assessed the relative importance of phylogeny and native climate to LCD differences among species by using multivariate regression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression approach. The results showed that the effects of climate factors on interannual changes in LCD were more significant than spring phenology. In general, temperature played a more important role in cold regions (e.g. the northeast region), while the control of insolation on LCD was stronger in the warmer and wetter regions (e.g. the north, east and southwest regions). In addition, the effects of precipitation and wind speed were more evident in arid regions (e.g. the northwest region). We also found considerable effects of both native climate and phylogeny on the LCD differences among species, despite the contribution of native climate being almost 2~5 times greater than that of the phylogeny. Our findings confirmed and quantified the combined effects of climate, spring phenology and phylogeny on the autumn phenology of plants, which could help better understand the driving factors and influencing mechanism of plant phenology and provide a reference for the calibration and optimization of phenological models.

Functional traits influence patterns in vegetative and reproductive plant phenology - a multi-botanical garden study

Phenology has emerged as key indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, yet the role of functional traits constraining variation in herbaceous species' phenology has received little attention. Botanical gardens are ideal places in which to investigate large numbers of species growing under common climate conditions. We ask whether interspecific variation in plant phenology is influenced by differences in functional traits. We recorded onset, end, duration and intensity of initial growth, leafing out, leaf senescence, flowering and fruiting for 212 species across five botanical gardens in Germany. We measured functional traits, including plant height, absolute and specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf carbon and nitrogen content and seed mass and accounted for species' relatedness. Closely related species showed greater similarities in timing of phenological events than expected by chance, but species' traits had a high degree of explanatory power, pointing to paramount importance of species' life-history strategies. Taller plants showed later timing of initial growth, and flowered, fruited and underwent leaf senescence later. Large-leaved species had shorter flowering and fruiting durations. Taller, large-leaved species differ in their phenology and are more competitive than smaller, small-leaved species. We assume climate warming will change plant communities' competitive hierarchies with consequences for biodiversity.

Leaf out time correlates with wood anatomy across large geographic scales and within local communities

There is a long-standing idea that the timing of leaf production in seasonally cold climates is linked to xylem anatomy, specifically vessel diameter because of the hydraulic requirements of expanding leaves. We tested for a relationship between the timing of leaf out and vessel diameter in 220 plants in three common gardens accounting for species' phylogenetic relationships. We investigated how vessel diameter related to wood porosity, plant height and leaf length. We also used dye perfusion tests to determine whether plants relied on xylem produced during the previous growing season at the time of leaf out. In all three gardens, there was later leaf out in species with wider vessels. Ring-porous species had the widest vessels, exhibited latest leaf out and relied less on xylem made during the previous growing season than diffuse-porous species. Wood anatomy and leaf phenology did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. The timing of leaf out is correlated with wood anatomy across species regardless of species' geographic origin and phylogenetic relationships. This correlation could be a result of developmental and physiological links between leaves and wood or tied to a larger safety efficiency trade-off.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.

Sex-differences in Phenology: A Tinbergian Perspective

Shifts in the timing of cyclic seasonal life-history events are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change, with differences in response rates among interacting species leading to phenological mismatches. Within a species, however, males and females can also exhibit differential sensitivity to environmental cues and may therefore differ in their responsiveness to climate change, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between the sexes. This occurs because males differ from females in when and how energy is allocated to reproduction, resulting in marked sex-differences in life-history timing across the annual cycle. In this review, we take a Tinbergian perspective and examine sex differences in timing of vertebrates from adaptive, ontogenetic, mechanistic, and phylogenetic viewpoints with the goal of informing and motivating more integrative research on sexually dimorphic phenologies. We argue that sexual and natural selection lead to sex-differences in life-history-timing and that understanding the ecological and evolutionary drivers of these differences is critical for connecting climate-driven phenological shifts to population resilience. Ontogeny may influence how and when sex differences in life-history timing arise because the early-life environment can profoundly affect developmental trajectory, rates of reproductive maturation, and seasonal timing. The molecular mechanisms underlying these organismal traits are relevant to identifying the diversity and genetic basis of population- and species-level responses to climate change, and promisingly, the molecular basis of phenology is becoming increasingly well-understood. However, because most studies focus on a single sex, the causes of sex-differences in phenology critical to population resilience often remain unclear. New sequencing tools and analyses informed by phylogeny may help generate hypotheses about mechanism as well as insight into the general "evolvability" of sex differences across phylogenetic scales, especially as trait and genome resources grow. We recommend that greater attention be placed on determining sex-differences in timing mechanisms and monitoring climate change responses in both sexes, and we discuss how new tools may provide key insights into sex-differences in phenology from all four Tinbergian domains.

Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies

Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity—but not phenological trends—predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species’ abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Phenological displacement is uncommon among sympatric angiosperms

Interactions between species can influence successful reproduction, resulting in reproductive character displacement, where the similarity of reproductive traits - such as flowering time - among close relatives growing together differ from when growing apart. Evidence for the overall prevalence and direction of this phenomenon, and its stability under environmental change, remains untested across large scales. Using the power of crowdsourcing, we gathered phenological information from over 40 000 herbarium specimens, and investigated displacement in flowering time across 110 animal-pollinated species in the eastern USA. Overall, flowering time displacement is not common across large scales. However, displacement is generally greater among species pairs that flower close in time, regardless of direction. Furthermore, with climate change, the flowering times of closely related species are predicted, on average, to shift further apart by the mid-21^st century. We demonstrate that the degree and direction of phenological displacement among co-occurring closely related species pairs varies tremendously. However, future climate change may alter the differences in reproductive timing among many of these species pairs, which may have significant consequences for species interactions and gene flow. Our study provides one promising path towards understanding how the phenological landscape is structured and may respond to future environmental change.

Phenotypic plasticity is aligned with phenological adaptation on both micro- and macroevolutionary timescales

In seasonally variable environments, phenotypic plasticity in phenology may be critical for adaptation to fluctuating environmental conditions. Using an 18-generation longitudinal dataset from natural damselfly populations, we show that phenology has strongly advanced. Individual fitness data suggest this is likely an adaptive response towards a temperature-dependent optimum. A laboratory experiment revealed that developmental plasticity qualitatively matches the temperature dependence of selection, partially explaining observed advance in phenology. Expanding our analysis to the macroevolutionary level, we use a database of over 1-million occurrence records and spatiotemporally matched temperature data from 49 Swedish Odonate species to infer macroevolutionary dynamics of phenology. Phenological plasticity was more closely aligned with adaptation for species that have recently colonised northern latitudes, but with higher phenological mismatch at lower latitudes. Our results show that phenological plasticity plays a key role in microevolutionary dynamics within a single species, and such plasticity may have facilitated post-Pleistocene range expansion in this insect clade.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Get up early: Revealing behavioral responses of sandeel to ocean warming using commercial catch data

Warming of the oceans and shifts in the timing of annual key events are likely to cause behavioral changes in species showing a high degree of site fidelity. While this is well studied in terrestrial systems, there are fewer examples from the marine environment. Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is a small eel-shaped teleost fish with strong behavioral attachment to sandy habitats in which they are buried from late summer through winter. When spring arrives, the sandeel emerge to feed during the day for several of months before returning to the sand for overwintering refuge.Using fisheries data from the North Sea, we investigated whether catch rates reflect the timing of emergence and if seasonal patterns are related to temperature and primary production.Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used to describe sandeel emergence. We developed indicators of the relative timing of the emergence from the winter sand refuge and the subsequent growth period. Different modeling approaches were used to investigate the relationship with bottom temperature and primary production.Variation in emergence behavior was correlated with variation in sea bottom temperature. Warmer years were characterized by earlier emergence. Significant warming over the last three decades was evident in all sandeel habitats in the North Sea throughout most of their adult life history, though no net shift in the phenology of emergence was detected. Minimum temperature during spring was a better predictor of emergence behavior than, for example, degree days.This study emphasizes how temperature-induced changes in behavior may have implications for predators and fisheries of sandeel. The method can be applied to other species for which the timing of exploitation (i.e., fisheries) and species life history are well matched.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Thermal adaptation in a holobiont accompanied by phenotypic changes in an endosymbiont

How and if organisms can adapt to changing temperatures has drastic consequences for the natural world. Thermal adaptation involves finding a match between temperatures permitting growth and the expected temperature distribution of the environment. However, if and how this match is achieved, and how tightly linked species change together, is poorly understood. Paramecium bursaria is a ciliate that has a tight physiological interaction with endosymbiotic green algae (zoochlorellae). We subjected a wild population of P. bursaria to a cold and warm climate (20 and 32℃) for ∼300 generations. We then measured the thermal performance curve (TPC) for intrinsic rate of growth (r_max ) for these evolved lines across temperatures. We also evaluated number and size of the zoochlorellae populations within paramecia cells. TPCs for warm-adapted populations were shallower and broader than TPCs of cold-adapted populations, indicating that the warm populations adapted by moving along a thermal generalist/specialist trade off rather than right-shifting the TPC. Zoochlorellae populations within cold-adapted paramecia had fewer and larger zoochlorellae than hot-adapted paramecia, indicating phenotypic shifts in the endosymbiont accompany thermal adaptation in the host. Our results provide new and novel insight into how species involved in complex interactions will be affected by continuing increasing global temperatures.

Global trends in phenotypic plasticity of plants

Predicting plastic responses is crucial to assess plant species potential to adapt to climate change, but little is known about which factors drive the biogeographical patterns of phenotypic plasticity in plants. Theory predicts that climatic variability would select for increased phenotypic plasticity, whereas evidence indicates that stressful conditions can limit phenotypic plasticity. Using a meta-analytic, phylogeny-corrected approach to global data on plant phenotypic plasticity, we tested whether latitude, climate, climatic variability and/or stressful conditions are predictors of plastic responses at a biogeographical scale. We found support for a positive association between phenotypic plasticity and climatic variability only for plasticity in allocation. Plasticity in leaf morphology, size and physiology were positively associated with mean annual temperature. We also found evidence that phenotypic plasticity in physiology is limited by cold stress. Overall, plant plastic responses to non-climatic factors were stronger than responses to climatic factors. However, while climatic conditions were associated with plant plastic responses to climatic factors, they generally did not relate to plastic responses to other abiotic or biotic factors. Our study highlights the need to consider those factors that favour and limit phenotypic plasticity in order to improve predictive frameworks addressing plant species' potential to adapt to climate change.

The impacts of flowering phenology on the reproductive success of the narrow endemic Nouelia insignis Franch. (Asteraceae)

Nouelia insignis Franch. (Asteraceae) is a short, narrow endemic and endangered tree, growing with a natural population in the dry and hot valley of the Jinsha River in the southwest area of China. In this work, flowering phenology (time and duration), floral biology, visit frequency and behavior of pollinators, and pollination characteristics were studied based on investigation in the field and analysis in the laboratory with the help of a stereomicroscope, and the relationship between seed setting rate and reproductive traits, as well as the relationship between flowering time and rainfall before flowering, was tested using the method of general linear regression model. The results showed that natural population of N. insignis exhibited high flowering synchrony with relatively stable flowering duration, and the flowering time fluctuated greatly depending on the rainfall 5 months before flowering. The pollination of N. insignis required pollinators, and insect activities played a very important role in the pollination process. However, lack of the pollinators was not a limitation for reproductive fitness in N. insignis, although the number of pollinators was small and the frequency of visits was low. In addition, no pollen limitation was found during pollination. The average seed setting rate of N. insignis in the natural condition was only 1.52%-3.73%, and it was generally affected by changes in flowering phenology between years and had a higher seed set in early flowering year. The annual variation of seed set might be related to the annual variations of stamen and pistil functions, such as changes of pollen viability and stigma receptivity, which were closely related to flowering time. The results of this study are of value for further conservation actions on natural population of this threatened endemic plant.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices on Antimicrobial Use and Antimicrobial Resistance among Poultry Drug and Feed Sellers in Bangladesh

Poultry production has boomed in Bangladesh in recent years. The poultry sector has contributed significantly to meet the increased demand for animal source proteins in the country. However, increased use of antimicrobials appeared to be a significant threat to food safety in the poultry sector. The poultry drug and feed sellers are at the frontline position involving selecting and delivering the antimicrobials to the poultry farmers. Studies assessing the poultry drug and feed sellers’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) are limited. The current study aimed to assess the community poultry drug and feed sellers’ KAPs of antimicrobial use (AMU) and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in some selected areas of Bangladesh. We determined the respondents’ (drug and the feed sellers) KAPs of AMU and AMR using a tested and paper-based questionnaire. The study demonstrated that most respondents have insufficient knowledge, less positive attitudes, and inappropriate practices regarding AMU and AMR. The factor score analysis further showed that the type of respondents and their years of experience, level of education, and training on the drug were the significant factors impacting the current knowledge, attitudes, and practices of AMU and AMR. The adjusted logistic regression analysis revealed that the drug sellers who completed their education up to 12th grade and had training on the drug had adequate knowledge of AMU and AMR. The data also showed that the drug sellers belong to the age group 31–35 and 36–40 years and who completed 12th grade had good attitudes on the same. Likewise, the analysis further determined that drug sellers belonging to the age category 18–25 and 26–30 years, and interestingly, the respondents who completed education up to 12th grade, had better practices. Spearman’s rank-order correlation revealed a positive association between each pair of the KAPs scores for the respondents. The correlation was fair between knowledge–attitudes, knowledge–practices, and attitudes–practices. Based on the current study results, we recommend educational interventions and appropriate training for the poultry drug and feed sellers to raise awareness and to upgrade their current knowledge on the appropriate use of antimicrobials. This will ultimately lead to reducing the chances of developing AMR in the poultry sectors of the country.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Macroevolutionary history predicts flowering time but not phenological sensitivity to temperature in grasses

PREMISE

Long-term observations show that flowering phenology has shifted in many lineages in response to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether these results can be generalized to predict the presence, direction, or magnitude of responses in lineages for which we lack long time-series data. If phenological responses are phylogenetically conserved, we can extrapolate from species for which we have data to predict the responses of close relatives. While several studies have found that closely related species flower at similar times, fewer have evaluated whether phylogenetically proximal species respond to environmental change similarly.

METHODS

We paired flowering time data from 3161 manually scored herbarium specimens of 72 species of grasses (Poaceae) with historical climate data and analyzed the phylogenetic signal and phylogenetic half-life of phenological sensitivity. We also ran these analyses on a subset of species showing statistically significant sensitivities, in order to assess the role of sampling bias on phylogenetic signal.

RESULTS

Closely related grass species tend to flower at similar times, but flowering times respond to temperature changes in species-specific ways. We also show that only including species for which there is strong evidence of phenological shifts results in overestimating phylogenetic signal.

CONCLUSIONS

In agreement with other recent studies, our results suggest caution in extrapolating from evidence of phylogenetic similarity to predicting shared responses in this ecologically relevant trait. Future work is needed to better understand the discrepancy between the phylogenetic signal in observed phenological shifts and absence of such signal in sensitivity.

Reduction in the potential distribution of bumble bees (Apidae: Bombus) in Mesoamerica under different climate change scenarios: Conservation implications

Bumble bees are an ecologically and economically important group of pollinating insects worldwide. Global climate change is predicted to affect bumble bee ecology including habitat suitability and geographic distribution. Our study aims to estimate the impact of projected climate change on 18 Mesoamerican bumble bee species. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) using current and future climate emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM). Regardless of the scenario and model applied, our results suggest that all bumble bee species are predicted to undergo a reduction in their potential distribution and habitat suitability due to projected climate change. ENMs based on low emission scenarios predict a distribution loss ranging from 7% to 67% depending on the species for the year 2050. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction of bumble bee geographic range shape will be more evident at the margins of their distribution. The reduction of suitable habitat is predicted to be accompanied by a 100-500 m upslope change in altitude and 1-581 km shift away from the current geographic centroid of a species' distribution. On average, protected natural areas in Mesoamerica cover ~14% of each species' current potential distribution, and this proportion is predicted to increase to ~23% in the high emission climate change scenarios. Our models predict that climate change will reduce Mesoamerican bumble bee habitat suitability, especially for rare species, by reducing their potential distribution ranges and suitability. The small proportion of current and future potential distribution falling in protected natural areas suggests that such areas will likely have marginal contribution to bumble bee habitat conservation. Our results have the capacity to inform stakeholders in designing effective landscape management for bumble bees, which may include developing restoration plans for montane pine oak forests habitats and native flowering plants.

Mapping Invasion Potential of the Pest from Central Asia, Trypophloeus klimeschi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), in the Shelter Forests of Northwest China

Simple Summary

Trypophloeus klimeschi Eggers (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) causes substantial mortality to Populus alba var. pyramidalis individuals in Xinjiang, China. Currently, the number of host trees killed by this bark beetle is increasing. Climate change has exacerbated this problem, causing its range to expand. Here, using Maxent, we simulated its distributions in the 2030s and 2050s under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The distribution expanded the most under RCP 8.5. It is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our study contributes to the construction and protection of shelter forests in Northern China because we present novel evidence of the potential impacts of climate change on forestry.

Abstract

Temperature and precipitation are the two main factors constraining the current distribution of Trypophloeus klimeschi. Currently, T. klimeschi is mainly distributed in South Xinjiang, where it occurs between the southern edge of the Tianshan Mountains and northern edge of the Tarim Basin. In addition, Dunhuang in northern Gansu also provide suitable habitats for this bark beetle. Two other potential areas for this species are in or near the cities of Alaer and Korla. Under future climate scenarios, its total suitable area is projected to increase markedly over time. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Jiuquan in Gansu is projected to become a suitable area in the 2030s. Subsequently, T. klimeschi is expected to enter western Inner Mongolia along the Hexi Corridor in the 2050s. In southeastern Xinjiang, however, the suitable area in northern Ruoqiang and most areas of Korla may decrease. By the 2050s, it is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor T. klimeschi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

Linkage between species traits and plant phenology in an alpine meadow

Plant phenology differs largely among coexisting species within communities that share similar habitat conditions. However, the factors explaining such phenological diversity of plants have not been fully investigated. We hypothesize that species traits, including leaf mass per area (LMA), seed mass, stem tissue mass density (STD), maximum plant height (H_max), and relative growth rate in height (RGR_H), explain variation in plant phenology, and tested this hypothesis in an alpine meadow. Results showed that both LMA and STD were positively correlated with the onset (i.e., beginning) and offset (i.e., ending) times of the four life history events including two reproductive events (flowering and fruiting) and two vegetative events (leafing and senescing). In contrast, RGR_H was negatively correlated with the four life phenological events. Moreover, H_max was positively correlated with reproductive events but not with vegetative events. However, none of the eight phenological events was associated with seed size. In addition, the combination of LMA and STD accounted for 50% of the variation in plant phenologies. Phylogenetic generalized least squares analysis showed plant phylogeny weakened the relationships between species traits vs. phenologies. Phylogeny significantly regulated the variation in the ending but not the beginning of phenologies. Our results indicate that species traits are robust indicators for plant phenologies and can be used to explain the diversity of plant phenologies among co-occurring herbaceous species in grasslands. The findings highlight the important role of the combination of and trade-offs between functional traits in determing plant phenology diversity in the alpine meadow.

Increase in temperature enriches heat tolerant taxa in Aedes aegypti midguts

Insect midgut microbial symbionts have been considered as an integral component in thermal adaptation due to their differential thermal sensitivity. Altered midgut microbial communities can influence both insect physiology and competence for important vector-borne pathogens. This study sought to gain insights into how Aedes aegypti midgut microbes and life history traits are affected by increase in baseline diurnal temperature. Increase in temperature resulted in the enrichment of specific taxa with Bacillus being the most enriched. Bacillus is known to be heat tolerant. It also resulted in a dissimilar microbial assemblage (Bray-Curtis Index, PERMANOVA, F = 2.2063; R2 = 0.16706; P = 0.002) and reduced survivorship (Log-rank [Mantel-Cox] test, Chi-square = 35.66 df = 5, P < 0.0001). Blood meal intake resulted in proliferation of pathogenic bacteria such as Elizabethkingia in the midgut of the mosquitoes. These results suggest that alteration of temperature within realistic parameters such as 2 °C for Ae. aegypti in nature may impact the midgut microbiome favoring specific taxa that could alter mosquito fitness, adaptation and vector-pathogen interactions.

Lineage-based functional types: characterising functional diversity to enhance the representation of ecological behaviour in Land Surface Models

Process-based vegetation models attempt to represent the wide range of trait variation in biomes by grouping ecologically similar species into plant functional types (PFTs). This approach has been successful in representing many aspects of plant physiology and biophysics but struggles to capture biogeographic history and ecological dynamics that determine biome boundaries and plant distributions. Grass-dominated ecosystems are broadly distributed across all vegetated continents and harbour large functional diversity, yet most Land Surface Models (LSMs) summarise grasses into two generic PFTs based primarily on differences between temperate C₃ grasses and (sub)tropical C₄ grasses. Incorporation of species-level trait variation is an active area of research to enhance the ecological realism of PFTs, which form the basis for vegetation processes and dynamics in LSMs. Using reported measurements, we developed grass functional trait values (physiological, structural, biochemical, anatomical, phenological, and disturbance-related) of dominant lineages to improve LSM representations. Our method is fundamentally different from previous efforts, as it uses phylogenetic relatedness to create lineage-based functional types (LFTs), situated between species-level trait data and PFT-level abstractions, thus providing a realistic representation of functional diversity and opening the door to the development of new vegetation models.

Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades

The changing climate is causing shifts in the timing of species activity. We use data on over 820,000 nesting records to quantify changes in the beginning, end, and duration of breeding among boreal birds. In addition to a general advance of breeding, we find an overall contraction of the breeding period. This pattern was most common among resident and short-distance migrating species. Overall, we detect a shift in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction, involving the start and end of reproduction and how concentrated the breeding period is. From a methodological perspective, our study illustrates that a focus on quantifying phenological advances alone may mask important patterns of phenology change across the season.

Breeding timed to match optimal resource abundance is vital for the successful reproduction of species, and breeding is therefore sensitive to environmental cues. As the timing of breeding shifts with a changing climate, this may not only affect the onset of breeding but also its termination, and thus the length of the breeding period. We use an extensive dataset of over 820K nesting records of 73 bird species across the boreal region in Finland to probe for changes in the beginning, end, and duration of the breeding period over four decades (1975 to 2017). We uncover a general advance of breeding with a strong phylogenetic signal but no systematic variation over space. Additionally, 31% of species contracted their breeding period in at least one bioclimatic zone, as the end of the breeding period advanced more than the beginning. We did not detect a statistical difference in phenological responses of species with combinations of different migratory strategy or number of broods. Nonetheless, we find systematic differences in species responses, as the contraction in the breeding period was found almost exclusively in resident and short-distance migrating species, which generally breed early in the season. Overall, changes in the timing and duration of reproduction may potentially lead to more broods co-occurring in the early breeding season—a critical time for species’ reproductive success. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying phenological change across species and over the entire season to reveal shifts in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction.

Adaptation of Forest Trees to Rapidly Changing Climate

Climate change leads to global drought-induced stress and increased plant mortality. Tree species living in rapidly changing climate conditions are exposed to danger and must adapt to new climate conditions to survive. Trees respond to changes in the environment in numerous ways. Physiological modulation at the seed stage, germination strategy and further development are influenced by many different factors. We review forest abiotic threats (such as drought and heat), including biochemical responses of plants to stress, and biotic threats (pathogens and insects) related to global warming. We then discus the varied adaptations of tree species to changing climate conditions such as seed resistance to environmental stress, improved by an increase in temperature, affinity to specific fungal symbionts, a wide range of tolerance to abiotic environmental conditions in the offspring of populations occurring in continental climate, and germination strategies closely linked to the ecological niche of the species. The existing studies do not clearly indicate whether tree adaptations are shaped by epigenetics or phenology and do not define the role of phenotypic plasticity in tree development. We have created a juxtaposition of literature that is useful in identifying the factors that play key roles in these processes. We compare scientific evidence that species distribution and survival are possible due to phenotypic plasticity and thermal memory with studies that testify that trees’ phenology depends on phylogenesis, but this issue is still open. It is possible that studies in the near future will bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms through which trees adapt to stressful conditions, especially in the context of epigenetic memory in long-lived organisms, and allow us to minimize the harmful effects of climatic events by predicting tree species’ responses or by developing solutions such as assisted migration to mitigate the consequences of these phenomena.

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free-living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured. The phylogenetic signal is likely driven by seabird foraging behavior. Surface-feeding species advanced their reproduction in the last 35 years while diving species showed remarkably stable breeding timing. The earlier reproduction for Arctic surface-feeding birds was significant in the Pacific only, where spring advancement was most pronounced. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, seabirds with a long breeding season showed a greater response to the advancement of spring than seabirds with a short breeding season. Our results emphasize that spatial variation, phylogeny, and life history are important considerations in seabird phenological response to climate change and highlight the key role played by the species' foraging behavior.

Climate drives loss of phylogenetic diversity in a grassland community

While climate change has already profoundly influenced biodiversity through local extinctions, range shifts, and altered interactions, its effects on the evolutionary history contained within sets of coexisting species-or phylogenetic community diversity-have yet to be documented. Phylogenetic community diversity may be a proxy for the diversity of functional strategies that can help sustain ecological systems in the face of disturbances. Under climatic warming, phylogenetic diversity may be especially vulnerable to decline in plant communities in warm, water-limited regions, as intensified water stress eliminates drought-intolerant species that may be relicts of past wetter climates and may be distantly related to coexisting species. Here, we document a 19-y decline of phylogenetic diversity in a grassland community as moisture became less abundant and predictable at a critical time of the year. This decline was strongest in native forbs, particularly those with high specific leaf area, a trait indicating drought sensitivity. This decline occurred at the small spatial scale where species interact, but the larger regional community has so far been buffered against loss of phylogenetic diversity by its high levels of physical and biotic heterogeneity.

Exploring the effects of character construction and choice, outgroups and analytical method on phylogenetic inference from discrete characters in extant crocodilians

Phylogenies for fossil taxa must be inferred from morphology, but accuracy of inference is questionable. Here, morphological characters for extant crocodilians are investigated to assess how to improve inference accuracy. The homoplasy of characters is assessed against a DNA-based phylogenetic tree. Cranial characters are significantly less homoplastic, but this result is perhaps confounded by research effort. Meristic characters are significantly more homoplastic and should be used with caution. Characters were reassessed first hand and documented. Those characters passing tests of robust construction are significantly less homoplastic. Suggestions are made for means to improve coding of discrete characters. Phylogenies inferred using only robust characters and a reassessed matrix, including corrected scorings, were not overall closer to the DNA tree, but did often place the gharial (Gavialis) in a position agreeing with or closer to it. The effects of the choice of analytical method were modest, but Bayesian analysis of the reassessed matrix placed Gavialis and Mecistops (slender-snouted crocodile) in DNA-concordant positions. Use of extant rather than extinct outgroups, even with the original matrix, placed Gavialis in a more DNA-concordant position, as did factoring out 3D skull shape. The morphological case for placement of Gavialis outside other extant crocodilians is arguably overstated, with many characters linked to skull shape.

Intraspecific differences in spring leaf phenology in relation to tree size in temperate deciduous trees

Spring leaf phenology strongly influences plant productivity in temperate deciduous forests. Many studies have detected earlier budburst and leaf maturation in smaller trees within species, and have discussed the adaptive significance of increasing carbon gain before canopy closure in small trees. However, some previous studies have found the opposite pattern, and the physiological and environmental bases for this discrepancy are incompletely understood. We investigated the spring leaf phenology of 11 deciduous species in a cool-temperate forest in Japan for 2 years with different amounts of snowfall, and also gathered data on the day of budburst from multiple studies to assess whether and how the timing of budburst is related to tree size, phylogeny, temperature and annual snowfall of study sites. We found that differences in the timing of budburst and leaf maturation between saplings (<1 m height) and short trees (1-10 m height) are larger than those between short trees and tall trees (>10 m height), resulting in non-linear relationships between timing and height in most species. Cumulative degree-days to the day of budburst were smaller in saplings than in tall trees, probably because saplings are selected to outcompete the other individuals/species to become established. Moreover, phylogenetic relatedness did not explain the difference in spring leaf phenology between saplings and tall trees in the literature survey. In addition, our literature survey showed that budburst occurred earlier in saplings of most species in sites with less snowfall, whereas budburst occurred earlier in tall trees at sites with heavy snowfall. These results suggest that the opposite patterns found in some studies may be due to (i) differences in the target size, as saplings show larger phenological discrepancies than short and tall trees, and (ii) the microclimate experienced by the tree, as sites with heavy snow show delayed sapling phenology.

Spring- and fall-flowering species show diverging phenological responses to climate in the Southeast USA

Plant phenological shifts (e.g., earlier flowering dates) are known consequences of climate change that may alter ecosystem functioning, productivity, and ecological interactions across trophic levels. Temperate, subalpine, and alpine regions have largely experienced advancement of spring phenology with climate warming, but the effects of climate change in warm, humid regions and on autumn phenology are less well understood. In this study, nearly 10,000 digitized herbarium specimen records were used to examine the phenological sensitivities of fall- and spring-flowering asteraceous plants to temperature and precipitation in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain. Climate data reveal warming trends in this already warm climate, and spring- and fall-flowering species responded differently to this change. Spring-flowering species flowered earlier at a rate of 1.8-2.3 days per 1 °C increase in spring temperature, showing remarkable congruence with studies of northern temperate species. Fall-flowering species flowered slightly earlier with warmer spring temperatures, but flowering was significantly later with warmer summer temperatures at a rate of 0.8-1.2 days per 1 °C. Spring-flowering species exhibited slightly later flowering times with increased spring precipitation. Fall phenology was less clearly influenced by precipitation. These results suggest that even warm, humid regions may experience phenological shifts and thus be susceptible to potentially detrimental effects such as plant-pollinator asynchrony.

Temperature controls phenology in continuously flowering Protea species of subtropical Africa

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Herbarium specimens are increasingly used as records of plant flowering phenology. However, most herbarium-based studies on plant phenology focus on taxa from temperate regions. Here, we explore flowering phenologic responses to climate in the subtropical plant genus Protea (Proteaceae), an iconic group of plants that flower year-round and are endemic to subtropical Africa.

METHODS

We present a novel, circular sliding window approach to investigate phenological patterns developed for species with year-round flowering. We employ our method to evaluate the extent to which site-to-site and year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation affect flowering dates using a database of 1727 herbarium records of 25 Protea species. We also explore phylogenetic conservatism in flowering phenology.

RESULTS

We show that herbarium data combined with our sliding window approach successfully captured independently reported flowering phenology patterns (r = 0.93). Both warmer sites and warmer years were associated with earlier flowering of 3-5 days/°C, whereas precipitation variation had no significant effect on flowering phenology. Although species vary widely in phenological responsiveness, responses are phylogenetically conserved, with closely related species tending to shift flowering similarly with increasing temperature.

DISCUSSION

Our results point to climate-responsive phenology for this important plant genus and indicate that the subtropical, aseasonally flowering genus Protea has temperature-driven flowering responses that are remarkably similar to those of better-studied northern temperate plant species, suggesting a generality across biomes that has not been described elsewhere.

Plasticity for desiccation tolerance across Drosophila species is affected by phylogeny and climate in complex ways

Comparative analyses of ectotherm susceptibility to climate change often focus on thermal extremes, yet responses to aridity may be equally important. Here we focus on plasticity in desiccation resistance, a key trait shaping distributions of Drosophila species and other small ectotherms. We examined the extent to which 32 Drosophila species, varying in their distribution, could increase their desiccation resistance via phenotypic plasticity involving hardening, linking these responses to environment, phylogeny and basal resistance. We found no evidence to support the seasonality hypothesis; species with higher hardening plasticity did not occupy environments with higher and more seasonal precipitation. As basal resistance increased, the capacity of species to respond via phenotypic plasticity decreased, suggesting plastic responses involving hardening may be constrained by basal resistance. Trade-offs between basal desiccation resistance and plasticity were not universal across the phylogeny and tended to occur within specific clades. Phylogeny, environment and trade-offs all helped to explain variation in plasticity for desiccation resistance but in complex ways. These findings suggest some species have the ability to counter dry periods through plastic responses, whereas others do not; and this ability will depend to some extent on a species' placement within a phylogeny, along with its basal level of resistance.

Sequence of flower and leaf emergence in deciduous trees is linked to ecological traits, phylogenetics, and climate

While much research has focused on the timing of individual plant phenological events, the sequence of phenological events has received considerably less attention. Here we identify drivers and patterns of flower and leaf emergence sequence (FLS) in deciduous tree species of the Great Lakes region of North America. Five hypotheses related to cold tolerance, water dynamics, seed mass, pollination syndrome, and xylem anatomy type were compared for their ability to explain FLS. Phylogenetic and geographic patterns of FLS were also assessed. We identified additional traits associated with FLS using Random Forest models. Of the hypotheses assessed, those related to species' water dynamics and seed mass had the greatest support. The spatial pattern of FLS was found to be strongly related to minimum monthly temperature and the phylogenetic pattern was clustered among species. Based on results from Random Forest models, species' fruiting characteristics were found to be the most important variables in explaining FLS. Our results show that FLS is related to a suite of plant traits and environmental tolerances. We emphasize the need to expand phenological research to include both the timing and sequence of plant's entire phenology, in particular in relation to plant physiology and global change.

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration.

The effect of climate change on the duration of avian breeding seasons: a meta-analysis

Many bird species are advancing the timing of their egg-laying in response to a warming climate. Little is known, however, of whether this advancement affects the respective length of the breeding seasons. A meta-analysis of 65 long-term studies of 54 species from the Northern Hemisphere has revealed that within the last 45 years an average population has lengthened the season by 1.4 days per decade, which was independent from changes in mean laying dates. Multi-brooded birds have prolonged their seasons by 4 days per decade, while single-brooded have shortened by 2 days. Changes in season lengths covaried with local climate changes: warming was correlated with prolonged seasons in multi-brooded species, but not in single-brooders. This might be a result of higher ecological flexibility of multi-brooded birds, whereas single brooders may have problems with synchronizing their reproduction with the peak of food resources. Sedentary species and short-distance migrants prolonged their breeding seasons more than long-distance migrants, which probably cannot track conditions at their breeding grounds. We conclude that as long as climate warming continues without major changes in ecological conditions, multi-brooded or sedentary species will probably increase their reproductive output, while the opposite effect may occur in single-brooded or migratory birds.

Species' traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta-analysis

A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species' responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta-analysis on study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.