Climate change impacts in multispecies systems: drought alters food web size structure in a field experiment

Predicting population-level impacts of projected climate heating on a temperate freshwater fish

Climate heating has the potential to drive changes in ecosystems at multiple levels of biological organization. Temperature directly affects the inherent physiology of plants and animals, resulting in changes in rates of photosynthesis and respiration, and trophic interactions. Predicting temperature-dependent changes in physiological and trophic processes, however, is challenging because environmental conditions and ecosystem structure vary across biogeographical regions of the globe. To realistically predict the effects of projected climate heating on wildlife populations, mechanistic tools are required to incorporate the inherent physiological effects of temperature changes, as well as the associated effects on food availability within and across comparable ecosystems. Here we applied an agent-based bioenergetics model to explore the combined effects of projected temperature increases for 2100 (1.4, 2.7, and 4.4°C), and associated changes in prey availability, on three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations representing latitudes 50, 55, and 60°N. Our results showed a decline in population density after a simulated 1.4°C temperature increase at 50°N. In all other modeled scenarios there was an increase (inflation) in population density and biomass (per unit area) with climate heating, and this inflation increased with increasing latitude. We conclude that agent-based bioenergetics models are valuable tools in discerning the impacts of climate change on wild fish populations, which play important roles in aquatic food webs.

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change-such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios-with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.

Water availability and seasonality shape elemental stoichiometry across space and time

The interaction of climate change and increasing anthropogenic water withdrawals is anticipated to alter surface water availability and the transport of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in river networks. But how changes to river flow will alter the balance, or stoichiometry, of these fluxes is unknown. The Lower Flint River Basin (LFRB) is part of an interstate watershed relied upon by several million people for diverse ecosystem services, including seasonal crop irrigation, municipal drinking water access, and public recreation. Recently, increased water demand compounded with intensified droughts have caused historically perennial streams in the LFRB to cease flowing, increasing ecosystem vulnerability. Our objectives were to quantify how riverine dissolved C:N:P varies spatially and seasonally and determine how monthly stoichiometric fluxes varied with overall water availability in a major tributary of LFRB. We used a long-term record (21-29 years) of solute water chemistry (dissolved organic carbon, nitrate/nitrite, ammonia, and soluble reactive phosphorus) paired with long-term stream discharge data across six sites within a single LFRB watershed. We found spatial and seasonal differences in soluble nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry attributable to groundwater connections, the presence of a major floodplain wetland, and flow conditions. Further, we showed that water availability, as indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), strongly predicted stoichiometry with generally lower C:N and C:P and higher N:P fluxes during periods of low water availability (PDSI < -4). These patterns suggest there may be long-term and significant changes to stream ecosystem function as water availability is being dramatically altered by human demand with consequential impacts on solute transport, in-stream processing, and stoichiometric ratios.

Drought altered trophic dynamics of an important natural saline lake: A stable isotope approach

Climate change and associated droughts threaten the ecology and resilience of natural saline lakes globally. There is a distinct lack of research regarding their ecological response to climatic events in the Global South. This region is predicted to experience climatic events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) more often and with greater severity with the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems significantly. From 2015 to 2016 South Africa experienced one of the most severe country-wide droughts as a result of a strong ENSO event. Our study aimed to investigate the effect of this supra-seasonal drought on the trophic structure of fish communities in a naturally saline shallow lake of a Ramsar wetland using stable isotope techniques. Fishes and potential basal sources were collected from the lake, during predrought conditions in 2010 and after severe drought (recovery phase; 2017). The δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values of food web elements were determined and analysed using Bayesian mixing models and Bayesian Laymen metrics to establish the proportional contribution of C₃ and C₄ basal sources to the fish (consumer) diets, and examine the fish community in terms of isotopic niche and trophic structure, respectively. Fish consumers relied predominantly on C₃ basal sources in the predrought and shifted to greater reliance on C₄ basal sources, decreased isotopic niche space use and a reduction in trophic length in the recovery phase. Drought altered the type and abundance of the basal sources available by limiting sources to those that are more drought-tolerant, reducing the trophic pathways of the food web with no significant alterations in the fish community. These results demonstrate the resilience and biological plasticity of Lake Nyamithi and its aquatic fauna, highlighting the importance of freshwater inflow to saline lakes with alterations thereof posing a significant threat to their continued functioning.

The overlooked complexity of avian brood parasite-host relationships

The relationships between avian brood parasites and their hosts are widely recognised as model systems for studying coevolution. However, while most brood parasites are known to parasitise multiple species of host and hosts are often subject to parasitism by multiple brood parasite species, the examination of multispecies interactions remains rare. Here, we compile data on all known brood parasite-host relationships and find that complex brood parasite-host systems, where multiple species of brood parasites and hosts coexist and interact, are globally commonplace. By examining patterns of past research, we outline the disparity between patterns of network complexity and past research emphases and discuss factors that may be associated with these patterns. Drawing on insights gained from other systems that have embraced a multispecies framework, we highlight the potential benefits of considering brood parasite-host interactions as ecological networks and brood parasitism as a model system for studying multispecies interactions. Overall, our results provide new insights into the diversity of these relationships, highlight the stark mismatch between past research efforts and global patterns of network complexity, and draw attention to the opportunities that more complex arrangements offer for examining how species interactions shape global patterns of biodiversity.

Using Food Webs and Metabolic Theory to Monitor, Model, and Manage Atlantic Salmon—A Keystone Species Under Threat

Populations of Atlantic salmon are crashing across most of its natural range: understanding the underlying causes and predicting these collapses in time to intervene effectively are urgent ecological and socioeconomic priorities. Current management techniques rely on phenomenological analyses of demographic population time-series and thus lack a mechanistic understanding of how and why populations may be declining. New multidisciplinary approaches are thus needed to capitalize on the long-term, large-scale population data that are currently scattered across various repositories in multiple countries, as well as marshaling additional data to understand the constraints on the life cycle and how salmon operate within the wider food web. Here, we explore how we might combine data and theory to develop the mechanistic models that we need to predict and manage responses to future change. Although we focus on Atlantic salmon—given the huge data resources that already exist for this species—the general principles developed here could be applied and extended to many other species and ecosystems.

Energy limitation or sensitive predators? Trophic and non-trophic impacts of wastewater pollution on stream food webs

Impacts of environmental stressors on food webs are often difficult to predict because trophic levels can respond in divergent ways, and biotic interactions may dampen or amplify responses. Here we studied food-web level impacts of urban wastewater pollution, a widespread source of degradation that can alter stream food webs via top-down and bottom-up processes. Wastewater may (i) subsidize primary producers by decreasing nutrient limitation, inducing a wide-bottomed trophic pyramid. However, (ii) wastewater may also reduce the quality and diversity of resources, which could decrease energy transfer efficiency by reducing consumer fitness, leading to predator starvation. Additionally, (iii) if higher trophic levels are particularly sensitive to pollution, primary consumers could be released from predation pressure. We tested these hypotheses in 10 pairs of stream sites located upstream and downstream of urban wastewater effluents with different pollutant levels. We found that wastewater pollution reduced predator richness by ~34%. Community Size Spectra (CSS) slopes were steeper downstream than upstream of wastewater effluents-in all except one impact site where predators became locally extinct. Further, variation in downstream CSS slopes were correlated with pollution loads: the more polluted the stream, the steeper the CSS. We estimate that wastewater pollution decreased energy transfer efficiencies to primary consumers by ~70%, limiting energy supply to predators. Additionally, traits increasing vulnerability to chemical pollution were overrepresented among predators, which presented compressed trophic niches (δ¹⁵ N- δ¹³ C) downstream of effluents. Our results show that wastewater pollution can impact stream food webs via a combination of energy limitation to consumers and extirpation of pollution-sensitive top predators. Understanding the indirect (biotically-mediated) vs. direct (abiotic) mechanisms controlling responses to stress may help anticipating impacts of altered water quantity and quality-key signatures of global change.

Energy pathways modulate the resilience of stream invertebrate communities to drought

While climate change is altering ecosystems on a global scale, not all ecosystems are responding in the same way. The resilience of ecological communities may depend on whether food webs are producer- or detritus-based (i.e. 'green' or 'brown' food webs, respectively), or both (i.e. 'multi-channel' food web). Food web theory suggests that the presence of multiple energy pathways can enhance community stability and resilience and may modulate the responses of ecological communities to disturbances such as climate change. Despite important advances in food web theory, few studies have empirically investigated the resilience of ecological communities to climate change stressors in ecosystems with different primary energy channels. We conducted a factorial experiment using outdoor stream mesocosms to investigate the independent and interactive effects of warming and drought on invertebrate communities in food webs with different energy channel configurations. Warming had little effect on invertebrates, but stream drying negatively impacted total invertebrate abundance, biomass, richness and diversity. Although resistance to drying did not differ among energy channel treatments, recovery and overall resilience were higher in green mesocosms than in mixed and brown mesocosms. Resilience to drying also varied widely among taxa, with larger predatory taxa exhibiting lower resilience. Our results suggest that the effects of drought on stream communities may vary regionally and depend on whether food webs are fuelled by autochthonous or allochthonous basal resources. Communities inhabiting streams with large amounts of organic matter and more complex substrates that provide refugia may be more resilient to the loss of surface water than communities inhabiting streams with simpler, more homogeneous substrates.

Diversity and temperature indirectly reduce CO2 concentrations in experimental freshwater communities

Biodiversity loss and climate warming are occurring in concert, with potentially profound impacts on ecosystem functioning. We currently know very little about the combined effects of these changes on the links between the community structure, dynamics and the resulting in situ CO₂ concentrations in freshwater ecosystems. Here we aimed to determine both individual and combined effects of temperature and non-resource diversity (species inedible for a given consumer) on CO₂ concentration. Our analysis further aimed to establish both direct effects on CO₂ concentrations and potential indirect effects that occur via changes to the phytoplankton and zooplankton biomasses. Our results showed that there were no interactive effects of changes in temperature and diversity on CO₂ concentration in the water. Instead, independent increases in either temperature or non-resource diversity resulted in a substantial reduction in CO₂ concentrations, particularly at the highest non-resource diversity. The effects of non-resource diversity and warming on CO₂ were indirect, resulting largely from the positive impacts on total biomass of primary producers. Our study is the first to experimentally partition the impacts of temperature and diversity on the consumer–resource dynamics and associated changes to CO₂ concentrations. It provides new mechanistic insights into the role of diverse plankton communities for ecosystem functioning and their importance in regulating CO₂ dynamics under ongoing climate warming.

Ecological networks reveal resilience of agro-ecosystems to changes in farming management

Sustainable management of ecosystems and growth in agricultural productivity is at the heart of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. New management regimes could revolutionize agricultural production, but require an evaluation of the risks and opportunities. Replacing existing conventional weed management with genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops, for example, might reduce herbicide applications and increase crop yields, but remains controversial owing to concerns about potential impacts on biodiversity. Until now, such new regimes have been assessed at the species or assemblage level, whereas higher-level ecological network effects remain largely unconsidered. Here, we conduct a large-scale network analysis of invertebrate communities across 502 UK farm sites to GMHT management in different crop types. We find that network-level properties were overwhelmingly shaped by crop type, whereas network structure and robustness were apparently unaltered by GMHT management. This suggests that taxon-specific effects reported previously did not escalate into higher-level systemic structural change in the wider agricultural ecosystem. Our study highlights current limitations of autecological assessments of effect in agriculture in which species interactions and potential compensatory effects are overlooked. We advocate adopting the more holistic system-level evaluations that we explore here, which complement existing assessments for meeting our future agricultural needs.

Quantifying the effects of climate and anthropogenic change on regional species loss in China

Human-induced environmental and climate change are widely blamed for causing rapid global biodiversity loss, but direct estimation of the proportion of biodiversity lost at local or regional scales are still infrequent. This prevents us from quantifying the main and interactive effects of anthropogenic environmental and climate change on species loss. Here, we demonstrate that the estimated proportion of species loss of 252 key protected vertebrate species at a county level of China during the past half century was 27.2% for all taxa, 47.7% for mammals, 28.8% for amphibians and reptiles and 19.8% for birds. Both human population increase and species richness showed significant positive correlations with species loss of all taxa combined, mammals, birds, and amphibians and reptiles. Temperature increase was positively correlated with all-taxa and bird species loss. Precipitation increase was negatively correlated with species loss of birds. Human population change and species richness showed more significant interactions with the other correlates of species loss. High species richness regions had higher species loss under the drivers of human environmental and climate change than low-richness regions. Consequently, ongoing human environmental and climate changes are expected to perpetuate more negative effects on the survival of key vertebrate species, particularly in high-biodiversity regions.

Climate change could drive marine food web collapse through altered trophic flows and cyanobacterial proliferation

Global warming and ocean acidification are forecast to exert significant impacts on marine ecosystems worldwide. However, most of these projections are based on ecological proxies or experiments on single species or simplified food webs. How energy fluxes are likely to change in marine food webs in response to future climates remains unclear, hampering forecasts of ecosystem functioning. Using a sophisticated mesocosm experiment, we model energy flows through a species-rich multilevel food web, with live habitats, natural abiotic variability, and the potential for intra- and intergenerational adaptation. We show experimentally that the combined stress of acidification and warming reduced energy flows from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores). Warming in isolation also reduced the energy flow from herbivores to carnivores, the efficiency of energy transfer from primary producers and detritus to herbivores and detritivores, and the living biomass of detritivores, herbivores, and carnivores. Whilst warming and acidification jointly boosted primary producer biomass through an expansion of cyanobacteria, this biomass was converted to detritus rather than to biomass at higher trophic levels—i.e., production was constrained to the base of the food web. In contrast, ocean acidification affected the food web positively by enhancing trophic flow from detritus and primary producers to herbivores, and by increasing the biomass of carnivores. Our results show how future climate change can potentially weaken marine food webs through reduced energy flow to higher trophic levels and a shift towards a more detritus-based system, leading to food web simplification and altered producer–consumer dynamics, both of which have important implications for the structuring of benthic communities.

Healthy marine ecosystems are crucial for people’s livelihoods and food production. Global climate stressors, such as warming and ocean acidification, can drastically impact the structure and function of marine food webs, diminishing the production of goods and services. Our ability to predict how future food webs will respond to a changing environment is limited by our understanding of species responses to climate change, which are often tested in isolation or in simplified experimental designs. More realistic predictions of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems requires consideration of entire species communities, including the species interactions that can buffer or exacerbate these impacts. We experimentally tested the effects of warming and acidification, both individually and in combination, on a benthic marine food web in a near-natural ecological setting. Energy flow from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores) was quantified under these different regimes. We show that warming, either alone or in combination with acidification, can constrain productivity to the bottom of the food web by enhancing cyanobacterial biomass and reducing energy flow to higher trophic levels, thus lowering energy transfer efficiency between producers and consumers. In contrast, increased ocean acidification alone showed a positive effect on herbivores and carnivores. Our finding is important because it demonstrates that future warming could drive marine food web collapses to potentially simplified and less productive coastal systems.

Dispersal governs the reorganization of ecological networks under environmental change

Ecological networks, such as food webs, mutualist webs and host-parasite webs, are reorganizing as species abundances and spatial distributions shift in response to environmental change. Current theoretical expectations for how this reorganization will occur are available for competition or for parts of interaction networks, but these may not extend to more complex networks. Here we use metacommunity theory to develop new expectations for how complex networks will reorganize under environmental change, and show that dispersal is crucial for determining the degree to which networks will retain their composition and structure. When dispersal between habitat patches is low, all types of species interactions act as a strong determinant for whether species can colonize suitable habitats. This colonization resistance drives species turnover, which breaks apart current networks and leads to the formation of new networks. However, when dispersal rates are increased, colonists arrive in high abundance in habitats where they are well adapted, so interactions with resident species contribute less to colonization success. Dispersal ensures that species associations are maintained as they shift in space, so networks retain similar composition and structure. The crucial role of dispersal reinforces the need to manage habitat connectivity to sustain species and interaction diversity into the future.

Rainfall and hydrological stability alter the impact of top predators on food web structure and function

Climate change will alter the distribution of rainfall, with potential consequences for the hydrological dynamics of aquatic habitats. Hydrological stability can be an important determinant of diversity in temporary aquatic habitats, affecting species persistence and the importance of predation on community dynamics. As such, prey are not only affected by drought-induced mortality but also the risk of predation [a non-consumptive effect (NCE)] and actual consumption by predators [a consumptive effect (CE)]. Climate-induced changes in rainfall may directly, or via altered hydrological stability, affect predator-prey interactions and their cascading effects on the food web, but this has rarely been explored, especially in natural food webs. To address this question, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their aquatic food web, composed of predatory damselfly larvae, macroinvertebrate prey and bacteria. We manipulated the presence and consumption ability of damselfly larvae under three rainfall scenarios (ambient, few large rainfall events and several small rainfall events), recorded the hydrological dynamics within bromeliads and examined the effects on macroinvertebrate colonization, nutrient cycling and bacterial biomass and turnover. Despite our large perturbations of rainfall, rainfall scenario had no effect on the hydrological dynamics of bromeliads. As a result, macroinvertebrate colonization and nutrient cycling depended on the hydrological stability of bromeliads, with no direct effect of rainfall or predation. In contrast, rainfall scenario determined the direction of the indirect effects of predators on bacteria, driven by both predator CEs and NCEs. These results suggest that rainfall and the hydrological stability of bromeliads had indirect effects on the food web through changes in the CEs and NCEs of predators. We suggest that future studies should consider the importance of the variability in hydrological dynamics among habitats as well as the biological mechanisms underlying the ecological responses to climate change.

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry-season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry-season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local-scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad-scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.

Choice of resolution by functional trait or taxonomy affects allometric scaling in soil food webs

Belowground organisms often display a shift in their mass-abundance scaling relationships due to environmental factors such as soil chemistry and atmospheric deposition. Here we present new empirical data that show strong differences in allometric scaling according to whether the resolution at the local scale is based on a taxonomic or a functional classification, while only slight differences arise according to soil environmental conditions. For the first time, isometry (an inverse 1:1 proportion) is recognized in mass-abundance relationships, providing a functional signal for constant biomass distribution in soil biota regardless of discrete trophic levels. Our findings are in contrast to those from aquatic ecosystems, in that higher trophic levels in soil biota are not a direct function of increasing body mass.

FORUM: Ecological networks: the missing links in biomonitoring science

Monitoring anthropogenic impacts is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems, yet current biomonitoring approaches lack the tools required to deal with the effects of stressors on species and their interactions in complex natural systems.

Ecological networks (trophic or mutualistic) can offer new insights into ecosystem degradation, adding value to current taxonomically constrained schemes. We highlight some examples to show how new network approaches can be used to interpret ecological responses.

Synthesis and applications. Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.

Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground‐truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network‐based perspective.

Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology

River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood) and/or low (i.e. drought) flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

Food web structure in a harsh glacier-fed river

Glacier retreat is occurring across the world, and associated river ecosystems are expected to respond more rapidly than those in flowing waters in other regions. The river environment directly downstream of a glacier snout is characterised by extreme low water temperature and unstable channel sediments but these habitats may become rarer with widespread glacier retreat. In these extreme environments food web dynamics have been little studied, yet they could offer opportunities to test food web theories using highly resolved food webs owing to their low taxonomic richness. This study examined the interactions of macroinvertebrate and diatom taxa in the Ödenwinkelkees river, Austrian central Alps between 2006 and 2011. The webs were characterised by low taxon richness (13-22), highly connected individuals (directed connectance up to 0.19) and short mean food chain length (2.00-2.36). The dominant macroinvertebrates were members of the Chironomidae genus Diamesa and had an omnivorous diet rich in detritus and diatoms as well as other Chironomidae. Simuliidae (typically detritivorous filterers) had a diet rich in diatoms but also showed evidence of predation on Chironomidae larvae. Food webs showed strong species-averaged and individual size structuring but mass-abundance scaling coefficients were larger than those predicted by metabolic theory, perhaps due to a combination of spatial averaging effects of patchily distributed consumers and resources, and/or consumers deriving unquantified resources from microorganisms attached to the large amounts of ingested rock fragments. Comparison of food web structural metrics with those from 62 published river webs suggest these glacier-fed river food web properties were extreme but in line with general food web scaling predictions, a finding which could prove useful to forecast the effects of anticipated future glacier retreat on the structure of aquatic food webs.

Climate change in size-structured ecosystems

One important aspect of climate change is the increase in average temperature, which will not only have direct physiological effects on all species but also indirectly modifies abundances, interaction strengths, food-web topologies, community stability and functioning. In this theme issue, we highlight a novel pathway through which warming indirectly affects ecological communities: by changing their size structure (i.e. the body-size distributions). Warming can shift these distributions towards dominance of small- over large-bodied species. The conceptual, theoretical and empirical research described in this issue, in sum, suggests that effects of temperature may be dominated by changes in size structure, with relatively weak direct effects. For example, temperature effects via size structure have implications for top-down and bottom-up control in ecosystems and may ultimately yield novel communities. Moreover, scaling up effects of temperature and body size from physiology to the levels of populations, communities and ecosystems may provide a crucially important mechanistic approach for forecasting future consequences of global warming.

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.

Tolerance to high temperature extremes in an invasive lace bug, Corythucha ciliata (Hemiptera: Tingidae), in subtropical China

Biological invasions are predicted to be more frequent as climate change is increasing its positive impact on the prevalence of invasive exotic species. Success of insect invaders in different temperature zones is closely related to their tolerance to temperature extremes. In this study, we used an exotic lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) as the study organism to address the hypotheses that an insect species invading a subtropical zone from temperate regions has a high capacity to survive and adapt to high temperatures, and that its thermal tolerance plays an important role in determining its seasonal abundance and geographic distribution. To test these hypotheses, the effects of heat shock on the survival and reproduction of C. ciliata adults were assessed in the laboratory. Adults were exposed to 26 (control), 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, and 45°C for 2 h, and then were transferred to 26°C. Heat-shock temperatures ranging from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect survival pattern, longevity, and fecundity of adults, but heat shock at 43 and 45°C significantly reduced these traits. Exposing parent females to heat-shock treatments from 35 to 41°C did not significantly affect the hatching rate of their eggs, survival of the nymphs, and the proportion of female F(1) progeny, while no progeny were produced with treatments of 43 and 45°C. The results indicate that C. ciliata can tolerate high temperatures less than 41°C, which may contribute to its expansion into the lower latitudes in China where its hosts (Platanus trees) are widely planted. Our findings have important implications for predicting seasonal abundance and understanding invasion mechanisms of this important urban invader under climate change.