Breaking beta: deconstructing the parasite transmission function

Movement-driven modelling reveals new patterns in disease transmission networks

Interspecific interactions are highly relevant in the potential transmission of shared pathogens in multi-host systems. In recent decades, several technologies have been developed to study pathogen transmission, such as proximity loggers, GPS tracking devices and/or camera traps. Despite the diversity of methods aimed at detecting contacts, the analysis of transmission risk is often reduced to contact rates and the probability of transmission given the contact. However, the latter process is continuous over time and unique for each contact, and is influenced by the characteristics of the contact and the pathogen's relationship with both the host and the environment. Our objective was to assess whether a more comprehensive approach, using a movement-based model which assigns a unique transmission risk to each contact by decomposing transmission into contact formation, contact duration and host characteristics, could reveal disease transmission dynamics that are not detected with more traditional approaches. The model was built from GPS-collar data from two management systems in Spain where animal tuberculosis (TB) circulates: a national park with extensively reared endemic cattle, and an area with extensive free-range pigs and cattle farms. In addition, we evaluated the effect of the GPS device fix rate on the performance of the model. Different transmission dynamics were identified between both management systems. Considering the specific conditions under which each contact occurs (i.e. whether the contact is direct or indirect, its duration, the hosts characteristics, the environmental conditions, etc.) resulted in the identification of different transmission dynamics compared to using only contact rates. We found that fix intervals greater than 30 min in the GPS tracking data resulted in missed interactions, and intervals greater than 2 h may be insufficient for epidemiological purposes. Our study shows that neglecting the conditions under which each contact occurs may result in a misidentification of the real role of each species in disease transmission. This study describes a clear and repeatable framework to study pathogen transmission from GPS data and provides further insights to understand how TB is maintained in multi-host systems in Mediterranean environments.

Associating with kin selects for disease resistance and against tolerance

Behavioural and physiological resistance are key to slowing epidemic spread. We explore the evolutionary and epidemic consequences of their different costs for the evolution of tolerance that trades off with resistance. Behavioural resistance affects social cohesion, with associated group-level costs, while the cost of physiological resistance accrues only to the individual. Further, resistance, and the associated reduction in transmission, benefit susceptible hosts directly, whereas infected hosts only benefit indirectly, by reducing transmission to kin. We therefore model the coevolution of transmission-reducing resistance expressed in susceptible hosts with resistance expressed in infected hosts, as a function of kin association, and analyse the effect on population-level outcomes. Using parameter values for guppies, Poecilia reticulata, and their gyrodactylid parasites, we find that: (1) either susceptible or infected hosts should invest heavily in resistance, but not both; (2) kin association drives investment in physiological resistance more strongly than in behavioural resistance; and (3) even weak levels of kin association can favour altruistic infected hosts that invest heavily in resistance (versus selfish tolerance), eliminating parasites. Overall, our finding that weak kin association affects the coevolution of infected and susceptible investment in both behavioural and physiological resistance suggests that kin selection may affect disease dynamics across systems.

Nonrandom foraging and resource distributions affect the relationships between host density, contact rates and parasite transmission

Nonrandom foraging can cause animals to aggregate in resource dense areas, increasing host density, contact rates and pathogen transmission, but when should nonrandom foraging and resource distributions also have density-independent effects? Here, we used a factorial experiment with constant resource and host densities to quantify host contact rates across seven resource distributions. We also used an agent-based model to compare pathogen transmission when host movement was based on random foraging, optimal foraging or something between those states. Nonrandom foraging strongly depressed contact rates and transmission relative to the classic random movement assumptions used in most epidemiological models. Given nonrandom foraging in the agent-based model and experiment, contact rates and transmission increased with resource aggregation and average distance to resource patches due to increased host movement in search of resources. Overall, we describe three density-independent mechanisms by which host behaviour and resource distributions alter contact rate functions and pathogen transmission.

Season of death, pathogen persistence and wildlife behaviour alter number of anthrax secondary infections from environmental reservoirs

An important part of infectious disease management is predicting factors that influence disease outbreaks, such as R, the number of secondary infections arising from an infected individual. Estimating R is particularly challenging for environmentally transmitted pathogens given time lags between cases and subsequent infections. Here, we calculated R for Bacillus anthracis infections arising from anthrax carcass sites in Etosha National Park, Namibia. Combining host behavioural data, pathogen concentrations and simulation models, we show that R is spatially and temporally variable, driven by spore concentrations at death, host visitation rates and early preference for foraging at infectious sites. While spores were detected up to a decade after death, most secondary infections occurred within 2 years. Transmission simulations under scenarios combining site infectiousness and host exposure risk under different environmental conditions led to dramatically different outbreak dynamics, from pathogen extinction (R < 1) to explosive outbreaks (R > 10). These transmission heterogeneities may explain variation in anthrax outbreak dynamics observed globally, and more generally, the critical importance of environmental variation underlying host-pathogen interactions. Notably, our approach allowed us to estimate the lethal dose of a highly virulent pathogen non-invasively from observational studies and epidemiological data, useful when experiments on wildlife are undesirable or impractical.

Quantifying the relationship between within-host dynamics and transmission for viral diseases of livestock

Understanding the population dynamics of an infectious disease requires linking within-host dynamics and between-host transmission in a quantitative manner, but this is seldom done in practice. Here a simple phenomenological model for viral dynamics within a host is linked to between-host transmission by assuming that the probability of transmission is related to log viral titre. Data from transmission experiments for two viral diseases of livestock, foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle and swine influenza virus in pigs, are used to parametrize the model and, importantly, test the underlying assumptions. The model allows the relationship between within-host parameters and transmission to be determined explicitly through their influence on the reproduction number and generation time. Furthermore, these critical within-host parameters (time and level of peak titre, viral growth and clearance rates) can be computed from more complex within-host models, raising the possibility of assessing the impact of within-host processes on between-host transmission in a more detailed quantitative manner.

Is there a sicker sex? Dose relationships modify male-female differences in infection prevalence

Throughout the animal kingdom, there are striking differences in the propensity of one sex or the other to become infected. However, precisely when we should expect males or females to be the sicker sex remains unclear. A major barrier to answering this question is that very few studies have considered how the susceptibility of males and females changes across the full range of pathogen doses encountered in nature. Without quantifying this 'dose-susceptibility' relationship, we have likely underestimated the scope for sex differences to arise. Here, we use the Daphnia magnia-Pasteuria ramosa system to reveal that sex differences in susceptibility are entirely dose-dependent, with pathogens having a higher probability of successfully establishing an infection in mature males at low doses, but mature females at high doses. The scope for male-female differences to emerge is therefore much greater than previously appreciated-extending to sex differences in the upper limits to infection success, per-propagule infectivity risks and density-dependent pathogen behaviour. Applying this expanded scope across the animal kingdom will help us understand when and why a sicker sex emerges, and the implications for diseases in nature-where sex ratios, age structure and pathogen densities vary drastically.

The persistence of time: the lifespan of Bacillus anthracis spores in environmental reservoirs

Anthrax is a lethal bacterial zoonosis primarily affecting herbivorous wildlife and livestock. Upon host death Bacillus anthracis vegetative cells form spores capable of surviving for years in soil. Anthrax transmission requires host exposure to large spore doses. Thus, conditions that facilitate higher spore concentrations or promote spore survival will increase the probability that a pathogen reservoir infects future hosts. We investigated abiotic and pathogen genomic variation in relation to spore concentrations in surface soils (0-1 cm depth) at 40 plains zebra (Equus quagga) anthrax carcass sites in Namibia. Specifically, how initial spore concentrations and spore survival were affected by seasonality associated with the timing of host mortality, local soil characteristics, and pathogen genomic variation. Zebras dying of anthrax in wet seasons-the peak season for anthrax in Etosha National Park-had soil spore concentrations 1.36 orders of magnitude higher than those that died in dry seasons. No other variables considered affected spore concentrations, and spore survival rates did not differ among sites. Surface soils at these pathogen reservoirs remained culture positive for a range of 3.8-10.4 years after host death. Future research could evaluate if seasonal patterns in spore concentrations are driven by differences in sporulation success or levels of terminal bacteremia.

Is the world wormier than it used to be? We'll never know without natural history collections

Many disease ecologists and conservation biologists believe that the world is wormier than it used to be-that is, that parasites are increasing in abundance through time. This argument is intuitively appealing. Ecologists typically see parasitic infections, through their association with disease, as a negative endpoint, and are accustomed to attributing negative outcomes to human interference in the environment, so it slots neatly into our worldview that habitat destruction, biodiversity loss and climate change should have the collateral consequence of causing outbreaks of parasites. But surprisingly, the hypothesis that parasites are increasing in abundance through time remains entirely untested for the vast majority of wildlife parasite species. Historical data on parasites are nearly impossible to find, which leaves no baseline against which to compare contemporary parasite burdens. If we want to know whether the world is wormier than it used to be, there is only one major research avenue that will lead to an answer: parasitological examination of specimens preserved in natural history collections. Recent advances demonstrate that, for many specimen types, it is possible to extract reliable data on parasite presence and abundance. There are millions of suitable specimens that exist in collections around the world. When paired with contemporaneous environmental data, these parasitological data could even point to potential drivers of change in parasite abundance, including climate, pollution or host density change. We explain how to use preserved specimens to address pressing questions in parasite ecology, give a few key examples of how collections-based parasite ecology can resolve these questions, identify some pitfalls and workarounds, and suggest promising areas for research. Natural history specimens are 'parasite time capsules' that give ecologists the opportunity to test whether infectious disease is on the rise and to identify what forces might be driving these changes over time. This approach will facilitate major advances in a new sub-discipline: the historical ecology of parasitism.

High virulence is associated with pathogen spreadability in a songbird-bacterial system

How directly transmitted pathogens benefit from harming hosts is key to understanding virulence evolution. It is recognized that pathogens benefit from high within-host loads, often associated with virulence. However, high virulence may also directly augment spread of a given amount of pathogen, here termed 'spreadability'. We used house finches and the conjunctival pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum to test whether two components of virulence-the severity of conjunctival inflammation and behavioural morbidity produced-predict pathogen spreadability. We applied ultraviolet powder around the conjunctiva of finches that were inoculated with pathogen treatments of distinct virulence and measured within-flock powder spread, our proxy for 'spreadability'. When compared to uninfected controls, birds infected with a high-virulence, but not low-virulence, pathogen strain, spread significantly more powder to flockmates. Relative to controls, high-virulence treatment birds both had more severe conjunctival inflammation-which potentially facilitated powder shedding-and longer bouts on feeders, which serve as fomites. However, food peck rates and displacements with flockmates were lowest in high-virulence treatment birds relative to controls, suggesting inflammatory rather than behavioural mechanisms likely drive augmented spreadability at high virulence. Our results suggest that inflammation associated with virulence can facilitate pathogen spread to conspecifics, potentially favouring virulence evolution in this system and others.

Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to populations

Parasitism is expected to change in a warmer future, but whether warming leads to substantial increases in parasitism remains unclear. Understanding how warming effects on parasitism in individual hosts (e.g. parasite load) translate to effects on population-level parasitism (e.g. prevalence, R0 ) remains a major knowledge gap. We conducted a literature review and identified 24 host-parasite systems that had information on the temperature dependence of parasitism at both individual host and host population levels: 13 vector-borne systems and 11 environmentally transmitted systems. We found a strong positive correlation between the thermal optima of individual- and population-level parasitism, although several of the environmentally transmitted systems exhibited thermal optima >5°C apart between individual and population levels. Parasitism thermal optima were close to vector performance thermal optima in vector-borne systems but not hosts in environmentally transmitted systems, suggesting these thermal mismatches may be more common in certain types of host-parasite systems. We also adapted and simulated simple models for both types of transmission modes and found the same pattern across the two modes: thermal optima were more strongly correlated across scales when there were more traits linking individual- to population-level processes. Generally, our results suggest that information on the temperature dependence, and specifically the thermal optimum, at either the individual or population level should provide a useful-although not quantitatively exact-baseline for predicting temperature dependence at the other level, especially in vector-borne parasite systems. Environmentally transmitted parasitism may operate by a different set of rules, in which temperature dependence is decoupled in some systems, requiring the need for trait-based studies of temperature dependence at individual and population levels.

Timescale reverses the relationship between host density and infection risk

Host density shapes infection risk through two opposing phenomena. First, when infective stages are subdivided among multiple hosts, greater host densities decrease infection risk through 'safety in numbers'. Hosts, however, represent resources for parasites, and greater host availability also fuels parasite reproduction. Hence, host density increases infection risk through 'density-dependent transmission'. Theory proposes that these phenomena are not disparate outcomes but occur over different timescales. That is, higher host densities may reduce short-term infection risk, but because they support parasite reproduction, may increase long-term risk. We tested this theory in a zooplankton-disease system with laboratory experiments and field observations. Supporting theory, we found that negative density-risk relationships (safety in numbers) sometimes emerged over short timescales, but these relationships reversed to 'density-dependent transmission' within two generations. By allowing parasite numerical responses to play out, time can shift the consequences of host density, from reduced immediate risk to amplified future risk.

Altered within- and between-host transmission under coinfection underpin parasite co-occurrence patterns in the wild

Interactions among parasite species coinfecting the same host individual can have far reaching consequences for parasite ecology and evolution. How these within-host interactions affect epidemics may depend on two non-exclusive mechanisms: parasite growth and reproduction within hosts, and parasite transmission between hosts. Yet, how these two mechanisms operate under coinfection, and how sensitive they are to the composition of the coinfecting parasite community, remains poorly understood. Here, we test the hypothesis that the relationship between within- and between-host transmission of the fungal pathogen, Phomopsis subordinaria, is affected by co-occurring parasites infecting the host plant, Plantago lanceolata. We conducted a field experiment manipulating the parasite community of transmission source plants, then tracked P. subordinaria within-host transmission, as well as between-host transmission to naïve recipient plants. We find that coinfection with the powdery mildew pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis, causes increased between-host transmission of P. subordinaria by affecting the number of infected flower stalks in the source plants, resulting from altered auto-infection. In contrast, coinfection with viruses did not have an effect on either within- or between-host transmission. We then analyzed data on the occurrence of P. subordinaria in 2018 and the powdery mildew in a multi-year survey data set from natural host populations to test whether the positive association predicted by our experimental results is evident in field epidemiological data. Consistent with our experimental findings, we observed a positive association in the occurrence of P. subordinaria and historical powdery mildew persistence. Jointly, our experimental and epidemiological results suggest that within- and between-host transmission of P. subordinaria depends on the identity of coinfecting parasites, with potentially far-reaching effects on disease dynamics and parasite co-occurrence patterns in wild populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10682-022-10182-9.

Spatial scaling of gregarious host populations and nonlinearities in infectious disease transmission

Research Highlight: Lunn, T. J., Peel, A. J., Eby, P., Brooks, R., Plowright, R. K., Kessler, M. K., & McCallum, H. (2021). Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13634. Quantifying the transmission of an infectious disease is often difficult and for natural animal systems it can be a major challenge. Animals move over time and space changing their degree of aggregation and rate of contact, which, in turn, affects the risk of infection and the onward spread of the pathogen. Capturing the fundamentals of these processes requires the identification of both the correct spatial scale at which the processes take place and what constitutes a meaningful host population unit. Lunn et al. collected data on the gregarious Pteropus (flying foxes) bats from roost sites in Australia and investigated whether total bat abundance at the roost level, the spatial scale commonly used to model pathogen spread in bat populations, was representative of bat measurements at the tree level, the scale at which pathogen transmission between bats most likely occurs. Their findings showed that bat population measurements at the sub-plot level were strong predictors for potential transmission at the tree scale, while roost-level measurements were less robust. This study suggests that bat abundance at roost is inadequate to capture the gregarious structure of bat populations and the fundamental processes of transmission at lower scale.

Transmission dynamics of ectoparasitic gyrodactylids (Platyhelminthes, Monogenea): An integrative review

Parasite transmission is the ability of pathogens to move between hosts. As a key component of the interaction between hosts and parasites, it has crucial implications for the fitness of both. Here, we review the transmission dynamics of Gyrodactylus species, which are monogenean ectoparasites of teleost fishes and a prominent model for studies of parasite transmission. Particularly, we focus on the most studied host–parasite system within this genus: guppies, Poecilia reticulata, and G. turnbulli/G. bullatarudis. Through an integrative literature examination, we identify the main variables affecting Gyrodactylus spread between hosts, and the potential factors that enhance their transmission. Previous research indicates that Gyrodactylids spread when their current conditions are unsuitable. Transmission depends on abiotic factors like temperature, and biotic variables such as gyrodactylid biology, host heterogeneity, and their interaction. Variation in the degree of social contact between hosts and sexes might also result in distinct dynamics. Our review highlights a lack of mathematical models that could help predict the dynamics of gyrodactylids, and there is also a bias to study only a few species. Future research may usefully focus on how gyrodactylid reproductive traits and host heterogeneity promote transmission and should incorporate the feedbacks between host behaviour and parasite transmission.

Floral shape predicts bee-parasite transmission potential

The spread of parasites is one of the primary drivers of population decline of both managed and wild bees. Several bee parasites are transmitted by the shared use of flowers, turning floral resources into potential disease hotspots. However, we know little about how floral morphology and floral species identity affect different steps of the transmission process. Here, we used the gut parasite Crithidia bombi and its primary host, bumble bees (Bombus spp.), to examine whether floral traits or species identity better predict three basic steps of parasite transmission on flowers: feces deposition on flowers, survival of the parasite on flowers, and acquisition by a new host. We also identified which traits and/or species were most strongly associated with each step in the transmission process. We found that both trait‐ and species‐based models fit the data on deposition of feces and survival of C. bombi on flowers, but that species‐based models provided a better fit compared with trait‐based ones. However, trait‐based models were better at predicting the acquisition of C. bombi on flowers. Although different species tended to support higher fecal deposition or parasite survival, we found that floral shape provided explanatory power for each of the transmission steps. When we assessed overall transmission potential, floral shape had the largest explanatory effect, with wider, shorter flowers promoting higher transmission. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of flower species identity and floral traits in disease transmission dynamics of bee parasites, and floral shape as an important predictor of overall transmission potential. Identifying traits associated with transmission potential may help us create seed mix that presents lower parasite transmission risk for bees for use in pollinator habitat.

Host preferences inhibit transmission from potential superspreader host species

Host species that are particularly abundant, infectious and/or infected tend to contribute disproportionately to symbiont (parasite or mutualist) maintenance in multi-host systems. Therefore, in a facultative multi-host system where two host species had high densities, high symbiont infestation intensities and high infestation prevalence, we expected interspecific transmission rates to be high. Instead, we found that interspecific symbiont transmission rates to caged sentinel hosts were an order of magnitude lower than intraspecific transmission rates in the wild. Using laboratory experiments to decompose transmission rates, we found that opportunities for interspecific transmission were frequent, where interspecific and intraspecific contact rate functions were statistically indistinguishable. However, most interspecific contacts did not lead to transmission events owing to a previously unrecognized transmission barrier: strong host preferences. During laboratory choice experiments, the symbiont preferred staying on or dispersing to its current host species, even though the oligochaete symbiont is a globally distributed host generalist that can survive and reproduce on many snail host species. These surprising results suggest that when managing symbiont transmission, identifying key host species is still important, but it may be equally important to identify and manage transmission barriers that keep potential superspreader host species in check.

A model for leveraging animal movement to understand spatio-temporal disease dynamics

The ongoing explosion of fine-resolution movement data in animal systems provides a unique opportunity to empirically quantify spatial, temporal and individual variation in transmission risk and improve our ability to forecast disease outbreaks. However, we lack a generalizable model that can leverage movement data to quantify transmission risk and how it affects pathogen invasion and persistence on heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a flexible model 'Movement-driven modelling of spatio-temporal infection risk' (MoveSTIR) that leverages diverse data on animal movement to derive metrics of direct and indirect contact by decomposing transmission into constituent processes of contact formation and duration and pathogen deposition and acquisition. We use MoveSTIR to demonstrate that ignoring fine-scale animal movements on actual landscapes can mis-characterize transmission risk and epidemiological dynamics. MoveSTIR unifies previous work on epidemiological contact networks and can address applied and theoretical questions at the nexus of movement and disease ecology.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m² or m³ ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

Experimental evidence that host choice by parasites is age-dependent in a fish-monogenean system

Host age is known to influence the risk of parasite infection, but there is very little experimental evidence on whether parasites show preference towards potential hosts of a specific age. To investigate how host age affects host choice by parasites, we used the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a fish parasite model and manipulated its gill ectoparasitic monogeneans in mesocosm experiments. Our experimental setting combined three age classes (juvenile, subadult, and adult) of both infected donor hosts and uninfected potential target hosts assigned to each treatment. We predicted that adult target hosts would be more susceptible to parasites than juveniles and adults because they represent high-quality habitat patches. Contrary to our prediction, we found that subadults were more susceptible to parasites than juvenile and adult target hosts. Our models confirmed that variation in target host age influenced parasite choice, suggesting that subadults might represent the most favourable option for parasites regarding a balance between host quality and susceptibility. We provide experimental evidence that host choice by parasites is age-dependent, and that this life-history trait can play a major role in structuring parasite populations.

Variability in environmental persistence but not per capita transmission rates of the amphibian chytrid fungus leads to differences in host infection prevalence

Heterogeneities in infections among host populations may arise through differences in environmental conditions through two mechanisms. First, environmental conditions may alter host exposure to pathogens via effects on survival. Second, environmental conditions may alter host susceptibility, making infection more or less likely if contact between a host and pathogen occurs. Further, host susceptibility might be altered through acquired resistance, which hosts can develop, in some systems, through exposure to dead or decaying pathogens and their metabolites. Environmental conditions may alter the rates of pathogen decomposition, influencing the likelihood of hosts developing acquired resistance. The present study primarily tests how environmental context influences the relative contributions of pathogen survival and per capita transmission on host infection prevalence using the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis; Bd) as a model system. Secondarily, we evaluate how environmental context influences the decomposition of Bd because previous studies have shown that dead Bd and its metabolites can illicit acquired resistance in hosts. We conducted Bd survival and infection experiments and then fit models to discern how Bd mortality, decomposition and per capita transmission rates vary among water sources [e.g. artificial spring water (ASW) or water from three ponds]. We found that infection prevalence differed among water sources, which was driven by differences in mortality rates of Bd, rather than differences in per capita transmission rates. Bd mortality rates varied among pond water treatments and were lower in ASW compared to pond water. These results suggest that variation in Bd infection dynamics could be a function of environmental factors in waterbodies that result in differences in exposure of hosts to live Bd. In contrast to the persistence of live Bd, we found that the rates of decomposition of dead Bd did not vary among water sources, which may suggest that exposure of hosts to dead Bd or its metabolites might not commonly vary among nearby sites. Ultimately, a mechanistic understanding of the environmental dependence of free-living pathogens could lead to a deeper understanding of the patterns of outbreak heterogeneity, which could inform surveillance and management strategies.

The ecology of zoonotic parasites in the Carnivora

The order Carnivora includes over 300 species that vary many orders of magnitude in size and inhabit all major biomes, from tropical rainforests to polar seas. The high diversity of carnivore parasites represents a source of potential emerging diseases of humans. Zoonotic risk from this group may be driven in part by exceptionally high functional diversity of host species in behavioral, physiological, and ecological traits. We review global macroecological patterns of zoonotic parasites within carnivores, and explore the traits of species that serve as hosts of zoonotic parasites. We synthesize theoretical and empirical research and suggest future work on the roles of carnivores as biotic multipliers, regulators, and sentinels of zoonotic disease as timely research frontiers.

Host Controls of Within-Host Disease Dynamics: Insight from an Invertebrate System

AbstractWithin-host processes (representing the entry, establishment, growth, and development of a parasite inside its host) may play a key role in parasite transmission but remain challenging to observe and quantify. We develop a general model for measuring host defenses and within-host disease dynamics. Our stochastic model breaks the infection process down into the stages of parasite exposure, entry, and establishment and provides associated probabilities for a host's ability to resist infections with barriers and clear internal infections. We tested our model on Daphnia dentifera and the parasitic fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata and found that when faced with identical levels of parasite exposure, Daphnia patent (transmitting) infections depended on the strength of internal clearance. Applying a Gillespie algorithm to the model-estimated probabilities allowed us to visualize within-host dynamics, within which signatures of host defense could be clearly observed. We also found that early within-host stages were the most vulnerable to internal clearance, suggesting that hosts have a limited window during which recovery can occur. Our study demonstrates how pairing longitudinal infection data with a simple model can reveal new insight into within-host dynamics and mechanisms of host defense. Our model and methodological approach may be a powerful tool for exploring these properties in understudied host-parasite interactions.

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Specialist by preference, generalist by need: availability of quality hosts drives parasite choice in a natural multihost-parasite system

Encountering suitable hosts is key for parasite success. A general assumption for disease transmission is that the contact of a parasite with a potential host is driven by the density or relative frequency of hosts. That assumption ignores the potential role of differential host attractiveness for parasites that can drive the encounter of hosts. It has been posited that hosts may be chosen by parasites as a function of their suitability, but the existing literature addressing that hypothesis is still very scarce. In a natural system involving a parasitic Philornis botfly and its multiple bird hosts, there are profound differences in host quality. The Great Kiskadee tolerates and does not invest in resisting the infection, which makes it an optimal host. Alternative hosts are frequently used, but whilst some of them may be good options, others are bad alternatives. Here we examined the host selection processes that drive parasite dynamics in this system with 8 years of data from a longitudinal study under natural conditions. We found that the use of an alternative host was not driven by its density or relative frequency, but instead selection of these hosts was strongly dependent on availability of more suitable hosts. When optimal hosts are plentiful, the parasite tends to ignore alternative ones. As broods of optimal hosts become limited, good alternative hosts are targeted. The parasite chooses bad alternative hosts only when better alternatives are not sufficiently available. These results add evidence from a natural system that some parasites choose their hosts as a function of their profitability, and show that host selection by this parasite is plastic and context-dependent. Such findings could have important implications for the epidemiology of some parasitic and vector-borne infections which should be considered when modelling and managing those diseases. The facultative host selection observed here can be of high relevance for public health, animal husbandry, and biodiversity conservation, because reductions in the richness of hosts might cause humans, domestic animals, or endangered species to become increasingly targeted by parasites that can drive the encounter of hosts.

Frequency-dependent transmission of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in eastern newts

Transmission is the fundamental process whereby pathogens infect their hosts and spread through populations, and can be characterized using mathematical functions. The functional form of transmission for emerging pathogens can determine pathogen impacts on host populations and can inform the efficacy of disease management strategies. By directly measuring transmission between infected and susceptible adult eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) in aquatic mesocosms, we identified the most plausible transmission function for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Although we considered a range of possible transmission functions, we found that Bsal transmission was best explained by pure frequency dependence. We observed that >90% of susceptible newts became infected within 17 days post‐exposure to an infected newt across a range of host densities and initial infection prevalence treatments. Under these conditions, we estimated R₀ = 4.9 for Bsal in an eastern newt population. Our results suggest that Bsal has the capability of driving eastern newt populations to extinction and that managing host density may not be an effective management strategy. Intervention strategies that prevent Bsal introduction or increase host resistance or tolerance to infection may be more effective. Our results add to the growing empirical evidence that transmission of wildlife pathogens can saturate and be functionally frequency‐dependent.

Parasite exposure and host susceptibility jointly drive the emergence of epidemics

Parasite transmission is thought to depend on both parasite exposure and host susceptibility to infection; however, the relative contribution of these two factors to epidemics remains unclear. We used interactions between an aquatic host and its fungal parasite to evaluate how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to drive epidemics. In six lakes, we tracked the following factors from pre-epidemic to epidemic emergence: (1) parasite exposure (measured observationally as fungal spores attacking wild-caught hosts), (2) host susceptibility (measured experimentally as the number of fungal spores required to produce terminal infection), (3) host susceptibility traits (barrier resistance and internal clearance, both quantified with experimental assays), and (4) parasite prevalence (measured observationally from wild-caught hosts). Tracking these factors over 6 months and in almost 7,000 wild-caught hosts provided key information on the drivers of epidemics. We found that epidemics depended critically on the interaction of exposure and susceptibility; epidemics only emerged when a host population's level of exposure exceeded its individuals' capacity for recovery. Additionally, we found that host internal clearance traits (the hemocyte response) were critical in regulating epidemics. Our study provides an empirical demonstration of how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to inhibit or drive disease in natural systems and demonstrates that epidemics can be delayed by asynchronicity in the two processes. Finally, our results highlight how individual host traits can scale up to influence broad epidemiological patterns.

Partitioning the environmental drivers of immunocompetence

By determining susceptibility to disease, environment-driven variation in immune responses can affect the health, productivity and fitness of vertebrates. Yet how the different components of the total environment control this immune variation is remarkably poorly understood. Here, through combining field observation, experimentation and modelling, we are able to quantitatively partition the key environmental drivers of constitutive immune allocation in a model wild vertebrate (three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus). We demonstrate that, in natural populations, thermal conditions and diet alone are sufficient (and necessary) to explain a dominant (seasonal) axis of variation in immune allocation. This dominant axis contributes to both infection resistance and tolerance and, in turn, to the vital rates of infectious agents and the progression of the disease they cause. Our results illuminate the environmental regulation of vertebrate immunity (given the evolutionary conservation of the molecular pathways involved) and they identify mechanisms through which immunocompetence and host-parasite dynamics might be impacted by changing environments. In particular, we predict a dominant sensitivity of immunocompetence and immunocompetence-driven host-pathogen dynamics to host diet shifts.

Genotype and sex-based host variation in behaviour and susceptibility drives population disease dynamics

Host heterogeneity in pathogen transmission is widespread and presents a major hurdle to predicting and minimizing disease outbreaks. Using Drosophila melanogaster infected with Drosophila C virus as a model system, we integrated experimental measurements of social aggregation, virus shedding, and disease-induced mortality from different genetic lines and sexes into a disease modelling framework. The experimentally measured host heterogeneity produced substantial differences in simulated disease outbreaks, providing evidence for genetic and sex-specific effects on disease dynamics at a population level. While this was true for homogeneous populations of single sex/genetic line, the genetic background or sex of the index case did not alter outbreak dynamics in simulated, heterogeneous populations. Finally, to explore the relative effects of social aggregation, viral shedding and mortality, we compared simulations where we allowed these traits to vary, as measured experimentally, to simulations where we constrained variation in these traits to the population mean. In this context, variation in infectiousness, followed by social aggregation, was the most influential component of transmission. Overall, we show that host heterogeneity in three host traits dramatically affects population-level transmission, but the relative impact of this variation depends on both the susceptible population diversity and the distribution of population-level variation.

Direct and indirect effects of multiple environmental stressors on fish health in human-altered rivers

Freshwater fish face multiple challenges in human-altered rivers such as trace metal contamination, temperature increase and parasitism. These multiple stressors could have unexpected interactive effects on fish health due to shared physiological pathways, but few studies investigated this question in wild fish populations. In this study, we compared 16 populations of gudgeon (Gobio occitaniae) distributed along perturbation gradients in human-altered rivers in the South of France. We tested the effects of single and combined stressors (i.e., metal contamination, temperature, parasitism) on key traits linked to fish health across different biological levels using a Structural Equation Modelling approach. Parasitism and temperature alone had limited deleterious effects on fish health. In contrast, fish living in metal-contaminated sites had higher metal bioaccumulation and higher levels of cellular damage in the liver through the induction of an inflammatory response. In addition, temperature and contamination had interactive negative effects on growth. These results suggest that trace metal contamination has deleterious effects on fish health at environmentally realistic concentrations and that temperature can modulate the effects of trace metals on fish growth. With this study, we hope to encourage integrative approaches in realistic field conditions to better predict the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on aquatic organisms.

The wildlife-livestock interface on extensive free-ranging pig farms in central Spain during the "montanera" period

The effective management of shared pathogens between wild ungulates and livestock requires the understanding of the processes of interaction between them. In this work, we studied the interspecific frequency of interaction (ifreq) and its spatiotemporal pattern between wild and domestic ungulates that coexist in free-ranging farms. For this purpose, 6 red deer, 6 wild boar, 8 Iberian pigs and 3 cattle were monitored using GPS devices during the "montanera" period (the period in which Iberian pigs are maintained in extensive conditions to feed on acorn). The ifreq was quantified for two spatiotemporal windows: 30 m - 10 min, for inferring potential direct interactions (short window), and 30 m - 12 days for indirect interactions (large window). Secondly, the variation in the ifreq was modelled with regard to 2 temporal (time of the day and week of the year) and 4 environmental factors (distance to water, distance to vegetation cover, Quercus density and distance to feeding points). The interactions at the short window were scarce (N = 13); however, they were very frequent at the large one (N = 37,429), with the red deer as the species with the greatest involvement in the interactions. Models showed that the time of the day and distance to water were the variables that best predicted the ifreq and they were conditioned by differences in the activity pattern of the targeted species. Food resource availability also predicted the ifreq, especially at the short window and between wild species. The results presented here highlight the role that wild ungulates may play in the transmission of pathogens to extensive livestock in general and pigs in particular and show the epidemiological risk of certain areas, periods of time and management practices (for wildlife and livestock) as well as providing useful information in the prevention of the transmission of shared pathogens.

Drawing inference from nationwide lockdown as a response towards novel Cornavirus-19 (CoVID-19) epidemic in India

Background

Lockdown effectively can only result in relative freezing of populations that is expected to slow down the disease spread rather than zeroing it. Flattening of epidemic curve Current analysis was carried out to observe a pattern in the rise of CoVID-19 cases along with concurrent announcements of strategies to control the spread of disease.

Material and Methods

Data in from of daily number of cases and issued notifications were studied from the official website of Government of India from 30/01/2020 to 03/05/2020. Qualitative assessment with thematic analysis was carried out for notifications issued by the government. The fit to data on cumulative cases was observed with R² and checked for linearity, logarithmic, polynomial, and exponential growth. Daily growth fraction (G_t) was calculated based on the difference between current and previous number of cases, thereafter daily doubling time (T_d(t)) was estimated.

Results

Daily reported cases were entered and cumulative growth of cases observed with a polynomial increasing pattern (third-order) with better fit (R²: 0.999). Total 108 notifications were issued, and as compared to phase-0 and 1 (87.0%), few (12.9%) notifications were issued in phase-2 of study period. As compared to phase-0 and 1, rising trend of cumulative cases and T_d(t) was high in phase-2.

Conclusion

Across phases of lockdown along with a rising trend of COVID-19 cases, the country has managed to increase the doubling time of cases with an effort to flatten the epidemic curve.

Evolution of behavioural resistance in host-pathogen systems

Behavioural resistance to parasites is widespread in animals, yet little is known about the evolutionary dynamics that have shaped these strategies. We show that theory developed for the evolution of physiological parasite resistance can only be applied to behavioural resistance under limited circumstances. We find that accounting explicitly for the behavioural processes, including the detectability of infected individuals, leads to novel dynamics that are strongly dependent on the nature of the costs and benefits of social interactions. As with physiological resistance, evolutionary dynamics of behavioural resistance can also lead to mixed strategies that balance these costs and benefits.

Host nutrition mediates interactions between plant viruses, altering transmission and predicted disease spread

Interactions among co-infecting pathogens are common across host taxa and can affect infectious disease dynamics. Host nutrition can mediate these among-pathogen interactions, altering the establishment and growth of pathogens within hosts. It is unclear, however, how nutrition-mediated among-pathogen interactions affect transmission and the spread of disease through populations. We manipulated the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) supplies to oat plants in growth chambers and evaluated interactions between two aphid-vectored Barley and Cereal Yellow Dwarf Viruses: PAV and RPV. We quantified the effect of each virus on the other's establishment, within-plant density, and transmission. Co-inoculation significantly increased PAV density when N and P supplies were low and tended to increase RPV density when N supply was high. Co-infection increased PAV transmission when N and P supplies were low and tended to increase RPV transmission when N supply was high. Despite the parallels between the effects of among-pathogen interactions on density and transmission, changes in virus density only partially explained changes in transmission, suggesting that virus density-independent processes contribute to transmission. A mathematical model describing the spread of two viruses through a plant population, parameterized with empirically derived transmission values, demonstrated that nutrition-mediated among-pathogen interactions could affect disease spread. Interactions that altered transmission through virus density-independent processes determined overall disease dynamics. Our work suggests that host nutrition alters disease spread through among-pathogen interactions that modify transmission.

Rectal Swabs as an Alternative Sample Collection Method to Bulk Stool for the Real-Time PCR Detection of Giardia duodenalis

Though bulk stool remains the gold standard specimen type for enteropathogen diagnosis, rectal swabs may offer comparable sensitivity with greater ease of collection for select pathogens. This study sought to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of rectal swabs as a sample collection method for the molecular diagnosis of Giardia duodenalis. Paired rectal swab and bulk stool samples were collected from 86 children ages 0-4 years living in southwest Niger, with duplicate samples collected among a subset of 50 children. Infection was detected using a previously validated real-time PCR diagnostic targeting the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene. Giardia duodenalis was detected in 65.5% (55/84) of bulk stool samples and 44.0% (37/84) of swab samples. The kappa evaluating test agreement was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.54-1.00) among duplicate stool samples (N = 49) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.47-1.00) among duplicate rectal swabs (N = 48). Diagnostic sensitivity was 93% (95% CI: 84-98) by bulk stool and 63% (95% CI: 49-75) by rectal swabs. When restricting to the lowest three quartiles of bulk stool quantitation cycle values (an indication of relatively high parasite load), sensitivity by rectal swabs increased to 78.0% (95% CI: 64-89, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that rectal swabs provide less sensitive and reproducible results than bulk stool for the real-time PCR diagnosis of G. duodenalis. However, their fair sensitivity for higher parasite loads suggests that swabs may be a useful tool for detecting higher burden infections when stool collection is excessively expensive or logistically challenging.

Towards a mechanistic understanding of competence: a missing link in diversity-disease research

Biodiversity loss may increase the risk of infectious disease in a phenomenon known as the dilution effect. Circumstances that increase the likelihood of disease dilution are: (i) when hosts vary in their competence, and (ii) when communities disassemble predictably, such that the least competent hosts are the most likely to go extinct. Despite the central role of competence in diversity-disease theory, we lack a clear understanding of the factors underlying competence, as well as the drivers and extent of its variation. Our perspective piece encourages a mechanistic understanding of competence and a deeper consideration of its role in diversity-disease relationships. We outline current evidence, emerging questions and future directions regarding the basis of competence, its definition and measurement, the roots of its variation and its role in the community ecology of infectious disease.

Local rabies transmission and regional spatial coupling in European foxes

Infectious diseases are often transmitted through local interactions. Yet, both surveillance and control measures are implemented within administrative units. Capturing local transmission processes and spatial coupling between regions from aggregate level data is therefore a technical challenge that can shed light on both theoretical questions and practical decisions. Fox rabies has been eliminated from much of Europe through oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes. The European Union (EU) co-finances ORV to maintain rabies freedom in EU member and border states via a cordon sanitaire. Models to capture local transmission dynamics and spatial coupling have immediate application to the planning of these ORV campaigns and to other parts of the world considering oral vaccination. We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to data on three decades of fox rabies cases and ORV campaigns from Eastern Germany. Specifically, we find that (i) combining regional spatial coupling and heterogeneous local transmission allows us to capture regional rabies dynamics; (ii) incursions from other regions account for less than 1% of cases, but allow for re-emergence of disease; (iii) herd immunity achieved through bi-annual vaccination campaigns is short-lived due to population turnover. Together, these findings highlight the need for regular and sustained vaccination efforts and our modelling approach can be used to provide strategic guidance for ORV delivery. Moreover, we show that biological understanding can be gained from inference from partially observed data on wildlife disease.

Tracking the assembly of nested parasite communities: Using β-diversity to understand variation in parasite richness and composition over time and scale

Community composition is driven by a few key assembly processes: ecological selection, drift and dispersal. Nested parasite communities represent a powerful study system for understanding the relative importance of these processes and their relationship with biological scale. Quantifying β-diversity across scales and over time additionally offers mechanistic insights into the ecological processes shaping the distributions of parasites and therefore infectious disease. To examine factors driving parasite community composition, we quantified the parasite communities of 959 amphibian hosts representing two species (the Pacific chorus frog, Pseudacris regilla and the California newt, Taricha torosa) sampled over 3 months from 10 ponds in California. Using additive partitioning, we estimated how much of regional parasite richness (γ-diversity) was composed of within-host parasite richness (α-diversity) and turnover (β-diversity) at three biological scales: across host individuals, across species and across habitat patches (ponds). We also examined how β-diversity varied across time at each biological scale. Differences among ponds comprised the majority (40%) of regional parasite diversity, followed by differences among host species (23%) and among host individuals (12%). Host species supported parasite communities that were less similar than expected by null models, consistent with ecological selection, although these differences lessened through time, likely due to high dispersal rates of infectious stages. Host individuals within the same population supported more similar parasite communities than expected, suggesting that host heterogeneity did not strongly impact parasite community composition and that dispersal was high at the individual host-level. Despite the small population sizes of within-host parasite communities, drift appeared to play a minimal role in structuring community composition. Dispersal and ecological selection appear to jointly drive parasite community assembly, particularly at larger biological scales. The dispersal ability of aquatic parasites with complex life cycles differs strongly across scales, meaning that parasite communities may predictably converge at small scales where dispersal is high, but may be more stochastic and unpredictable at larger scales. Insights into assembly mechanisms within multi-host, multi-parasite systems provide opportunities for understanding how to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases within human and wildlife hosts.

Two's company, three's a crowd: Exploring how host-parasite-microbiota interactions may influence disease susceptibility and conservation of wildlife

A large body of research has demonstrated that host-associated microbiota-the archaeal, bacterial, fungal and viral communities residing on and inside organisms-are critical to host health (Cho & Blaser, 2012). Although the vast majority of these studies focus on humans or model organisms in laboratory settings (Pascoe, Hauffe, Marchesi, & Perkins, 2017), they nevertheless provide important conceptual evidence that the disruption of host-associated microbial communities (termed "dysbiosis") among wild animals may reduce host fitness and survival under natural environmental conditions. Among the myriad of environmental factors capable of inducing dysbiosis among wild animals (Trevelline, Fontaine, Hartup, & Kohl, 2019), parasitic infections represent a potentially potent, yet poorly understood, factor influencing microbial community dynamics and animal health. The study by DeCandia et al. in this issue of Molecular Ecology is a rare example of a host-parasite-microbiota interaction that impacts the health, survival and conservation of a threatened wild animal in its natural habitat. Using culture-independent techniques, DeCandia et al. found that the presence of an ectoparasitic mite (Otodectes cynotis) in the ear canal of the Santa Catalina Island fox (Urocyon littoralis catalinae) was associated with significantly reduced ear canal microbial diversity, with the opportunistic pathogen Staphylococcus pseudintermedius dominating the community. These findings suggest that parasite-induced inflammation may contribute to the formation of ceruminous gland tumours in this subspecies of Channel Island fox. As a rare example of a host-parasite-microbiota interaction that may mediate a lethal disease in a population of threatened animals, their study provides an excellent example of how aspects of disease ecology can be integrated into studies of host-associated microbiota to advance conservation science and practice.

Dynamic Network of Interactions in the Wildlife-Livestock Interface in Mediterranean Spain: An Epidemiological Point of View

The correct management of diseases that are transmitted between wildlife and livestock requires a reliable estimate of the pathogen transmission rate. The calculation of this parameter is a challenge for epidemiologists, since transmission can occur through multiple pathways. The social network analysis is a widely used tool in epidemiology due to its capacity to identify individuals and communities with relevant roles for pathogen transmission. In the present work, we studied the dynamic network of interactions in a complex epidemiological scenario using information from different methodologies. In 2015, nine red deer, seven fallow deer, six wild boar and nine cattle were simultaneously monitored using GPS-GSM-Proximity collars in Doñana National Park. In addition, 16 proximity loggers were set in aggregation points. Using the social network analysis, we studied the dynamic network of interactions, including direct and indirect interactions, between individuals of different species and the potential transmission of pathogens within this network. The results show a high connection between species through indirect interactions, with a marked seasonality in the conformation of new interactions. Within the network, we differentiated four communities that included individuals of all the species. Regarding the transmission of pathogens, we observed the important role that fallow deer could be playing in the maintenance and transmission of pathogens to livestock. The present work shows the need to consider different types of methodologies in order to understand the complete functioning of the network of interactions at the wildlife/livestock interface. It also provides a methodological approach applicable to the management of shared diseases.

Modeling Pathogen Dispersal in Marine Fish and Shellfish

In marine ecosystems, oceanographic processes often govern host contacts with infectious agents. Consequently, many approaches developed to quantify pathogen dispersal in terrestrial ecosystems have limited use in the marine context. Recent applications in marine disease modeling demonstrate that physical oceanographic models coupled with biological models of infectious agents can characterize dispersal networks of pathogens in marine ecosystems. Biophysical modeling has been used over the past two decades to model larval dispersion but has only recently been utilized in marine epidemiology. In this review, we describe how biophysical models function and how they can be used to measure connectivity of infectious agents between sites, test hypotheses regarding pathogen dispersal, and quantify patterns of pathogen spread, focusing on fish and shellfish pathogens.

On modelling environmentally transmitted pathogens

Many pathogens are able to replicate or survive in abiotic environments. Disease transmission models that include environmental reservoirs and environment-to-host transmission have used a variety of functional forms and modelling frameworks without a clear connection to pathogen ecology or space and time scales. We present a conceptual framework to organize microparasites based on the role that abiotic environments play in their lifecycle. Mean-field and individual-based models for environmental transmission are analysed and compared. We show considerable divergence between both modelling approaches when conditions do not facilitate well mixing and for pathogens with fast dynamics in the environment. We conclude with recommendations for modelling environmentally transmitted pathogens based on the pathogen lifecycle and time and spatial scales of the host-pathogen system under consideration.

Host density drives viral, but not trypanosome, transmission in a key pollinator

Supplemental feeding of wildlife populations can locally increase the density of individuals, which may in turn impact disease dynamics. Flower strips are a widely used intervention in intensive agricultural systems to nutritionally support pollinators such as bees. Using a controlled experimental semi-field design, we asked how density impacts transmission of a virus and a trypanosome parasite in bumblebees. We manipulated bumblebee density by using different numbers of colonies within the same area of floral resource. In high-density compartments, slow bee paralysis virus was transmitted more quickly, resulting in higher prevalence and level of infection in bumblebee hosts. By contrast, there was no impact of density on the transmission of the trypanosome Crithidia bombi, which may reflect the ease with which this parasite is transmitted. These results suggest that agri-environment schemes such as flower strips, which are known to enhance the nutrition and survival of bumblebees, may also have negative impacts on pollinators through enhanced disease transmission. Future studies should assess how changing the design of these schemes could minimize disease transmission and thus maximise their health benefits to wild pollinators.

Genotypic variation in parasite avoidance behaviour and other mechanistic, nonlinear components of transmission

Traditional epidemiological models assume that transmission increases proportionally to the density of parasites. However, empirical data frequently contradict this assumption. General yet mechanistic models can explain why transmission depends nonlinearly on parasite density and thereby identify potential defensive strategies of hosts. For example, hosts could decrease their exposure rates at higher parasite densities (via behavioural avoidance) or decrease their per-parasite susceptibility when encountering more parasites (e.g. via stronger immune responses). To illustrate, we fitted mechanistic transmission models to 19 genotypes of Daphnia dentifera hosts over gradients of the trophically acquired parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Exposure rate (foraging, F) frequently decreased with parasite density (Z), and per-parasite susceptibility (U) frequently decreased with parasite encounters (F × Z). Consequently, infection rates (F × U × Z) often peaked at intermediate parasite densities. Moreover, host genotypes varied substantially in these responses. Exposure rates remained constant for some genotypes but decreased sensitively with parasite density for others (up to 78%). Furthermore, genotypes with more sensitive foraging/exposure also foraged faster in the absence of parasites (suggesting 'fast and sensitive' versus 'slow and steady' strategies). These relationships suggest that high densities of parasites can inhibit transmission by decreasing exposure rates and/or per-parasite susceptibility, and identify several intriguing axes for the evolution of host defence.

Dose-response and transmission: the nexus between reservoir hosts, environment and recipient hosts

Dose is the nexus between exposure and all upstream processes that determine pathogen pressure, and is thereby an important element underlying disease dynamics. Understanding the relationship between dose and disease is particularly important in the context of spillover, where nonlinearities in the dose-response could determine the likelihood of transmission. There is a need to explore dose-response models for directly transmitted and zoonotic pathogens, and how these interactions integrate within-host factors to consider, for example, heterogeneity in host susceptibility and dose-dependent antagonism. Here, we review the dose-response literature and discuss the unique role dose-response models have to play in understanding and predicting spillover events. We present a re-analysis of dose-response experiments for two important zoonotic pathogens (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Nipah virus), to exemplify potential difficulties in differentiating between appropriate models with small exposure experiment datasets. We also discuss the data requirements needed for robust selection between dose-response models. We then suggest how these processes could be modelled to gain more realistic predictions of zoonotic transmission outcomes and highlight the exciting opportunities that could arise with increased collaboration between the virology and epidemiology disciplines. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Predicting the Thermal and Allometric Dependencies of Disease Transmission via the Metabolic Theory of Ecology

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) provides a general framework of allometric and thermal dependence that may be useful for predicting how climate change will affect disease spread. Using Daphnia magna and a microsporidian gut parasite, we conducted two experiments across a wide thermal range and fitted transmission models that utilize MTE submodels for transmission parameters. We decomposed transmission into contact rate and probability of infection and further decomposed probability of infection into a product of gut residence time (GRT) and per-parasite infection rate of gut cells. Contact rate generally increased with temperature and scaled positively with body size, whereas infection rate had a narrow hump-shaped thermal response and scaled negatively with body size. GRT increased with host size and was longest at extreme temperatures. GRT and infection rate inside the gut combined to create a 3.5 times higher probability of infection for the smallest relative to the largest individuals. Small temperature changes caused large differences in transmission. We also fit several alternative transmission models to data at individual temperatures. The more complex models-parasite antagonism or synergism and host heterogeneity-did not substantially improve the fit to the data. Our results show that transmission rate is the product of several distinct thermal and allometric functions that can be predicted continuously across temperature and host size using the MTE.

Why is sterility virulence most common in sexually transmitted infections? Examining the role of epidemiology

Sterility virulence, or the reduction in host fecundity due to infection, occurs in many host-pathogen systems. Notably, sterility virulence is more common for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than for directly transmitted pathogens, while other forms of virulence tend to be limited in STIs. This has led to the suggestion that sterility virulence may have an adaptive explanation. By focusing upon finite population models, we show that the observed patterns of sterility virulence can be explained by consideration of the epidemiological differences between STIs and directly transmitted pathogens. In particular, when pathogen transmission is predominantly density invariant (as for STIs), and mortality is density dependent, sterility virulence can be favored by demographic stochasticity, whereas if pathogen transmission is predominantly density dependent, as is common for most directly transmitted pathogens, sterility virulence is disfavored. We show these conclusions can hold even if there is a weak selective advantage to sterilizing.

Bottom-up trait-mediated indirect effects decrease pathogen transmission in a tritrophic system

A plant's induction of secondary defenses helps to decrease herbivore damage by changing resource quality. While these chemical or physical defenses may directly decrease herbivory, they can also have indirect consequences. In a tritrophic system consisting of a plant, an insect herbivore, and an insect pathogen, plant based trait-mediated indirect effects (TMIEs) can alter host-pathogen interactions and, thereby, indirectly affect disease transmission. In a series of field experiments, individual soybean plants (Glycine max) were sprayed with either a jasmonic acid (JA) solution to trigger induction of plant defenses or a similar control compound. Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) larvae along with varying amounts of a lethal baculovirus were placed on the plants to measure transmission. Induction of plant defenses decreased viral transmission due to increased population heterogeneity arising from changes in individual susceptibility. The change in susceptibility via TMIEs was driven by a decrease in feeding rates and an increase viral dose needed to infect larvae. While the induction against herbivore attack may decrease herbivory, it can also decrease the efficacy of the herbivore's pathogen potentially to the plant's detriment. While TMIEs have been well-recognized for being driven by top-down forces, bottom-up interactions can dictate community dynamics and, here, epizootic severity.