Does deforestation promote or inhibit malaria transmission in the Amazon? A systematic literature review and critical appraisal of current evidence

Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin

The evidence of seasonal patterns in malaria epidemiology in the Brazilian Amazon basin indicates the need for a thorough investigation of seasonality in this last and heterogeneous region. Additionally, since these patterns are linked to climate variables, malaria models should also incorporate them. This study applies wavelet analysis to incidence data from 2003 to 2020 in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) database. A mathematical model with climate-dependent parametrization is proposed to study counts of malaria cases over time based on notification data, temperature and rainfall. The wavelet analysis reveals marked seasonality in states Amazonas and Amapá throughout the study period, and from 2003 to 2012 in Pará. However, these patterns are not as marked in other states such as Acre and Pará in more recent years. The wavelet coherency analysis indicates a strong association between incidence and temperature, especially for the municipalities of Macapá and Manaus, and a similar association for rainfall. The mathematical model fits well with the observed temporal trends in both municipalities. Studies on climate-dependent mathematical models provide a good assessment of the baseline epidemiology of malaria. Additionally, the understanding of seasonality effects and the application of models have great potential as tools for studying interventions for malaria control.

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

Relative effects of climate factors and malaria control interventions on changes of parasitaemia risk in Burkina Faso from 2014 to 2017/2018

BACKGROUND

In Burkina Faso, the prevalence of malaria has decreased over the past two decades, following the scale-up of control interventions. The successful development of malaria parasites depends on several climatic factors. Intervention gains may be reversed by changes in climatic factors. In this study, we investigated the role of malaria control interventions and climatic factors in influencing changes in the risk of malaria parasitaemia.

METHODS

Bayesian logistic geostatistical models were fitted on Malaria Indicator Survey data from Burkina Faso obtained in 2014 and 2017/2018 to estimate the effects of malaria control interventions and climatic factors on the temporal changes of malaria parasite prevalence. Additionally, intervention effects were assessed at regional level, using a spatially varying coefficients model.

RESULTS

Temperature showed a statistically important negative association with the geographic distribution of parasitaemia prevalence in both surveys; however, the effects of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) use was negative and statistically important only in 2017/2018. Overall, the estimated number of infected children under the age of 5 years decreased from 704,202 in 2014 to 290,189 in 2017/2018. The use of ITNs was related to the decline at national and regional level, but coverage with artemisinin-based combination therapy only at regional level.

CONCLUSION

Interventions contributed more than climatic factors to the observed change of parasitaemia risk in Burkina Faso during the period of 2014 to 2017/2018. Intervention effects varied in space. Longer time series analyses are warranted to determine the differential effect of a changing climate on malaria parasitaemia risk.

Deforestation inhibits malaria transmission in Lao PDR: a spatial epidemiology using Earth observation satellites

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to analyze the impact of deforestation on the malaria distribution in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), with consideration of climate change.

METHODS

Malaria distribution data from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from the Ministry of Health of Lao PDR and each indicator was calculated. Earth observation satellite data (forested area, land surface temperature, and precipitation) were obtained from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Structured equation modeling (SEM) was conducted to clarify the relationship between the malaria incidence and Earth observation satellite data.

RESULTS

As a result, SEM identified two factors that were independently associated with the malaria incidence: area and proportion of forest. Specifically, malaria was found to be more prevalent in the southern region, with the malaria incidence increasing as the percentage of forested land increased (both p < 0.01). With global warming steadily progressing, forested areas are expected to play an important role in the incidence of malaria in Lao PDR. This is believed because malaria in Lao PDR is mainly forest malaria transmitted by Anopheles dirus.

CONCLUSION

To accelerate the elimination of malaria in Lao PDR, it is important to identify, prevent, and intervene in places with increased forest coverage (e.g., plantations) and in low-temperature areas adjacent to malaria-endemic areas, where the vegetation is similar to that in malaria-endemic areas.

Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems

Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera-Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.

Assessing the impact of the "malaria supporters project" intervention to malaria control in the Brazilian Amazon: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2021, Brazil was responsible for more than 25% of malaria cases in the Americas. Although the country has shown a reduction of cases in the last decades, in 2021 it reported over 139,000 malaria cases. One major malaria control strategy implemented in Brazil is the "Malaria Supporters Project", which has been active since 2012 and is directed to municipalities responsible for most Brazil's cases. The objective of this study is to analyse the intervention effect on the selected municipalities.

METHODS

An ecological time-series analysis was conducted to assess the "Malaria Supporters Project" effect. The study used data on Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) spanning the period from 2003 to 2020 across 48 intervention municipalities and 88 control municipalities. To evaluate the intervention effect a Prais-Winsten segmented regression model was fitted to the difference in malaria Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) between control and intervention areas.

RESULTS

The intervention group registered 1,104,430 cases between 2012 and 2020, a 50.6% reduction compared to total cases between 2003 and 2011. In 2020 there were 95,621 cases, 50.4% fewer than in 2011. The number of high-risk municipalities (API > 50 cases/1000) reduced from 31 to 2011 to 17 in 2020. The segmented regression showed a significant 42.0 cases/1000 residents annual decrease in API compared to control group.

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention is not a silver bullet to control malaria, but it has reduced API in locations with high malaria endemicity. Furthermore, the model has the potential to be replicated in other countries with similar epidemiological scenarios.

Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity

Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.

Differing taxonomic responses of mosquito vectors to anthropogenic land-use change in Latin America and the Caribbean

Anthropogenic land-use change, such as deforestation and urban development, can affect the emergence and re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases, e.g., dengue and malaria, by creating more favourable vector habitats. There has been a limited assessment of how mosquito vectors respond to land-use changes, including differential species responses, and the dynamic nature of these responses. Improved understanding could help design effective disease control strategies. We compiled an extensive dataset of 10,244 Aedes and Anopheles mosquito abundance records across multiple land-use types at 632 sites in Latin America and the Caribbean. Using a Bayesian mixed effects modelling framework to account for between-study differences, we compared spatial differences in the abundance and species richness of mosquitoes across multiple land-use types, including agricultural and urban areas. Overall, we found that mosquito responses to anthropogenic land-use change were highly inconsistent, with pronounced responses observed at the genus- and species levels. There were strong declines in Aedes (-26%) and Anopheles (-35%) species richness in urban areas, however certain species such as Aedes aegypti, thrived in response to anthropogenic disturbance. When abundance records were coupled with remotely sensed forest loss data, we detected a strong positive response of dominant and secondary malaria vectors to recent deforestation. This highlights the importance of the temporal dynamics of land-use change in driving disease risk and the value of large synthetic datasets for understanding changing disease risk with environmental change.

Deforestation impacts on dengue incidence in the Brazilian Amazon

The objective of the study is to perform the spatial analysis of the conditioning factors for the increase in the incidence rate of dengue cases in municipalities located in the Amazon biome, in the period from 2016 to 2021. Three statistical approaches were applied: Moran's index, ordinary least squares regression, and geographically weighted regression. The results revealed that the incidence rates of dengue cases cluster in two areas, both located in the south of the Amazon biome, which is associated with the Arc of Deforestation. The variable deforestation influences the increase in dengue incidence rates revealed by the OLS and GWR model. The adjusted R² of the GWR model was 0.70, that is, the model explains about 70% of the total case variation of dengue incidence rates in the Amazon biome. The results of the study evidence the need for public policies aimed at the prevention and combat of deforestation in the Amazon region.

Environmental and socio-economic determinants of the occurrence of malaria clusters in Colombia

This study identifies the environmental and socio-economic determinants of clusters of high malaria incidence in Colombia during the period of 2008-2019. The malaria cases were obtained from the National System of Surveillance in Public Health, with 798,897 cases reported in the 986 Colombian municipalities evaluated during the study period. Spatial autocorrelation of incidence was examined with global and local indices. Clusters were identified in the Amazon, Pacific, and Uraba-Bajo Cauca-Alto Sinú regions. The factors associated with a municipality belonging to a high-incidence cluster were identified using a logistic regression model with mixed effects and showed a positive association for the variables (forest coverage and minimum multi-year average rainfall). An inverse relationship was observed for aqueduct coverage and the odds of belonging to a cluster. A 1% increase in forest coverage was associated with a 4.2% increase in the odds of belonging to a malaria cluster. The association with minimum multi-year average rainfall was positive (OR = 1.0011; 95% CI 1.0005-1.0027). A 1% increase in aqueduct coverage was associated with a 4.3% decrease in the odds of belonging to malaria cluster. The identification of malaria cluster determinants in Colombia could help guide surveillance and disease control policies.

Malaria in Angola: recent progress, challenges and future opportunities using parasite demography studies

Over the past two decades, a considerable expansion of malaria interventions has occurred at the national level in Angola, together with cross-border initiatives and regional efforts in southern Africa. Currently, Angola aims to consolidate malaria control and to accelerate the transition from control to pre-elimination, along with other country members of the Elimination 8 initiative. However, the tremendous heterogeneity in malaria prevalence among Angolan provinces, as well as internal population movements and migration across borders, represent major challenges for the Angolan National Malaria Control Programme. This review aims to contribute to the understanding of factors underlying the complex malaria situation in Angola and to encourage future research studies on transmission dynamics and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum, important areas to complement host epidemiological information and to help reenergize the goal of malaria elimination in the country.

Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis

BACKGROUND

Billions of people living in poverty are at risk of environmentally mediated infectious diseases-that is, pathogens with environmental reservoirs that affect disease persistence and control and where environmental control of pathogens can reduce human risk. The complex ecology of these diseases creates a global health problem not easily solved with medical treatment alone.

METHODS

We quantified the current global disease burden caused by environmentally mediated infectious diseases and used a structural equation model to explore environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens across all countries.

FINDINGS

We found that around 80% (455 of 560) of WHO-tracked pathogen species known to infect humans are environmentally mediated, causing about 40% (129 488 of 359 341 disability-adjusted life years) of contemporary infectious disease burden (global loss of 130 million years of healthy life annually). The majority of this environmentally mediated disease burden occurs in tropical countries, and the poorest countries carry the highest burdens across all latitudes. We found weak associations between disease burden and biodiversity or agricultural land use at the global scale. In contrast, the proportion of people with rural poor livelihoods in a country was a strong proximate indicator of environmentally mediated infectious disease burden. Political stability and wealth were associated with improved sanitation, better health care, and lower proportions of rural poverty, indirectly resulting in lower burdens of environmentally mediated infections. Rarely, environmentally mediated pathogens can evolve into global pandemics (eg, HIV, COVID-19) affecting even the wealthiest communities.

INTERPRETATION

The high and uneven burden of environmentally mediated infections highlights the need for innovative social and ecological interventions to complement biomedical advances in the pursuit of global health and sustainability goals.

FUNDING

Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, Stanford University, and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Malaria Resilience in South America: Epidemiology, Vector Biology, and Immunology Insights from the Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil

The 1990s saw the rapid reemergence of malaria in Amazonia, where it remains an important public health priority in South America. The Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) was designed to take a multidisciplinary approach toward identifying novel malaria control and elimination strategies. Based on geographically and epidemiologically distinct sites in the Northeastern Peruvian and Western Brazilian Amazon regions, synergistic projects integrate malaria epidemiology, vector biology, and immunology. The Amazonian ICEMR's overarching goal is to understand how human behavior and other sociodemographic features of human reservoirs of transmission-predominantly asymptomatically parasitemic people-interact with the major Amazonian malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus (formerly Anopheles) darlingi, and with human immune responses to maintain malaria resilience and continued endemicity in a hypoendemic setting. Here, we will review Amazonian ICEMR's achievements on the synergies among malaria epidemiology, Plasmodium-vector interactions, and immune response, and how those provide a roadmap for further research, and, most importantly, point toward how to achieve malaria control and elimination in the Americas.

The ecology and epidemiology of malaria parasitism in wild chimpanzee reservoirs

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) harbor rich assemblages of malaria parasites, including three species closely related to P. falciparum (sub-genus Laverania), the most malignant human malaria parasite. Here, we characterize the ecology and epidemiology of malaria infection in wild chimpanzee reservoirs. We used molecular assays to screen chimpanzee fecal samples, collected longitudinally and cross-sectionally from wild populations, for malaria parasite mitochondrial DNA. We found that chimpanzee malaria parasitism has an early age of onset and varies seasonally in prevalence. A subset of samples revealed Hepatocystis mitochondrial DNA, with phylogenetic analyses suggesting that Hepatocystis appears to cross species barriers more easily than Laverania. Longitudinal and cross-sectional sampling independently support the hypothesis that mean ambient temperature drives spatiotemporal variation in chimpanzee Laverania infection. Infection probability peaked at ~24.5 °C, consistent with the empirical transmission optimum of P. falciparum in humans. Forest cover was also positively correlated with spatial variation in Laverania prevalence, consistent with the observation that forest-dwelling Anophelines are the primary vectors. Extrapolating these relationships across equatorial Africa, we map spatiotemporal variation in the suitability of chimpanzee habitat for Laverania transmission, offering a hypothetical baseline indicator of human exposure risk.

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win-win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all" and "conserve life on land and below water", what progress has been made with win-win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win-win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.

Health disparity and mortality trends of infectious diseases in BRICS from 1990 to 2019

Background

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) represented almost half of the global population and much infectious disease burden. We aimed to analyze the current status and trends from 1990 to 2019 of infectious disease mortality in BRICS.

Methods

We used the data of mortality estimation from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The absolute number of deaths from and mortality rates of infectious diseases in each country were derived from the database from 1990 to 2019. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was used to compare populations in different regions and times. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of rates quantified the infectious disease mortality trends.

Results

BRICS respectively accounted for 39% and 32% of the global infectious disease deaths, in 1990 and 2019. Lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal diseases contributed the most to the number of deaths in 1990 and 2019. In BRICS, ASMRs of all infectious diseases except sexually transmitted infections (STIs) decreased. The highest STI ASMRs were in South Africa; the highest ASMRs of enteric infections, neglected tropical diseases and malaria, and other infectious diseases were in India; South Africa and India both had relatively high respiratory infection ASMRs.

Conclusion

Infectious disease mortality varies substantially in BRICS, and health disparity needs to be considered when facing complex infectious disease situations in different countries.

Landscape Anthropization Affects Mosquito Diversity in a Deciduous Forest in Southeastern Mexico

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are considered the group of insects that most impacts human health. Land use change, conversion of conserved sites into agricultural environments, urbanization, defaunation, and introduction of domestic animals can affect mosquito diversity positively or negatively, increasing the risk of transmission of zoonotic diseases. Here, we describe the diversity of adult mosquitoes in two environments (deciduous forest and anthropized zone) over 2 yr (2014-2016), using eight CDC traps at each site in three climatic seasons (rainy, cold, and dry). We captured 795 individuals belonging to 22 species. We constructed rank-abundance curves to determine spatial and temporal changes in the mosquito communities. We measured alpha diversity using the Shannon index (H'), Shannon exponential (eH) and Simpson dominance (Ds), and beta diversity using Jaccard's coefficient of similarity (Ij). The most abundant species were Culex quinquefasciatus (40.5%), Culex coronator (18.3%), and Anopheles pseudopunctipennis (12.4%). The highest mosquito diversity was in the deciduous forest during the rainy season. Beta diversity analysis showed that species overlap varied among climatic seasons, with the sites sharing 65% species during the rainy season, but only 33% of species during the dry season. We found differences in the diversity of mosquitoes at the two sites, and the mosquito assemblage of the anthropized zone was significantly different from that of the deciduous forest.

Does deforestation drive visceral leishmaniasis transmission? A causal analysis

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global disease burden and are a key factor in perpetuating economic inequality. Although environmental changes are often cited as drivers of VBDs, the link between deforestation and VBD occurrence remains unclear. Here, we examined this relationship in detail using the spread of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in São Paulo state (Brazil) as the case study. We used a two-step approach to estimate the causal effects (overall, direct, and indirect) of deforestation on the occurrence of the VL vector, canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), and human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL). We first estimated the parameters via a double Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and then estimated the causal effects through a Gibbs sampler. We observed that the odds of vector, CVL, and HVL occurrence were 2.63-, 2.07-, and 3.18-fold higher, respectively, in deforested compared with forested municipalities. We also identified a significant influence of the presence of vector, CVL, and HVL in one municipality on disease occurrence in previously naive neighbouring municipalities. Lastly, we found that a hypothetical reduction in deforestation prevalence from 50 to 0% across the state would reduce vector, CVL, and HVL occurrence by 11%, 6.67%, and 29.87%, respectively. Our results suggest that implementing an eco-friendly development strategy that considers trade-offs between agriculture, urbanization, and conservation could be an effective mechanism of controlling VL.

Trends of the global, regional and national incidence of malaria in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 and implications for malaria prevention

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a life-threatening disease worldwide, but lacks studies on its incidence at the global level. We aimed to describe global trends and regional diversities in incidence of malaria infection, to make global tailored implications for malaria prevention.

METHODS

We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and absolute number of malaria episodes showed the epidemic status of malaria infection. The estimated annual percentage change of ASR and changes in malaria episodes quantified the malaria incidence trends. The connection between ASRs and traveller number indicated infection risk for travellers.

RESULTS

Globally, the malaria ASR decreased by an average 0.80% (95% confidence interval 0.58-1.02%) per year from 1990 to 2019; however, it slightly increased from 3195.32 per 100 000 in 2015 to 3247.02 per 100 000 in 2019. The incidence rate of children under 5 was higher than other age groups. A total of 40 countries had higher ASRs in 2019 than in 2015, with the largest expansion in Cabo Verde (from 2.02 per 100 000 to 597.00 per 100 000). After 2015, the ASRs in high-middle, middle and low-middle Socio-demographic Index regions began to rise and the uptrends remained in 2019. Central, Western and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASRs since 1990, and traveller number in Eastern and Western Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 31.24 and 7.58%, respectively, from 2017 to 2018. Especially, most countries with ASR over 10 000 per 100 000 had increase in traveller number from 2017 to 2018, with the highest change by 89.56% in Mozambique.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria is still a public health threat for locals and travellers in Sub-Saharan Africa and other malaria-endemic areas, especially for children under 5. There were unexpected global uptrends of malaria ASRs from 2015 to 2019. More studies are needed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination.

Environmental and spatial risk factors for the larval habitats of Plasmodium knowlesi vectors in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo

Land-use changes, such as deforestation and agriculture, can influence mosquito vector populations and malaria transmission. These land-use changes have been linked to increased incidence in human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. This study investigates whether these associations are partially driven by fine-scale land-use changes creating more favourable aquatic breeding habitats for P. knowlesi anopheline vectors. Using aerial remote sensing data, we developed a sampling frame representative of all land use types within a major focus of P. knowlesi transmission. From 2015 to 2016 monthly longitudinal surveys of larval habitats were collected in randomly selected areas stratified by land use type. Additional remote sensing data on environmental variables, land cover and landscape configuration were assembled for the study site. Risk factor analyses were performed over multiple spatial scales to determine associations between environmental and spatial variables and anopheline larval presence. Habitat fragmentation (300 m), aspect (350 m), distance to rubber plantations (100 m) and Culex larval presence were identified as risk factors for Anopheles breeding. Additionally, models were fit to determine the presence of potential larval habitats within the areas surveyed and used to generate a time-series of monthly predictive maps. These results indicate that land-use change and topography influence the suitability of larval habitats, and may partially explain the link between P. knowlesi incidence and deforestation. The predictive maps, and identification of the spatial scales at which risk factors are most influential may aid spatio-temporally targeted vector control interventions.

Worldwide Research on Land Use and Land Cover in the Amazon Region

Land cover is an important descriptor of the earth’s terrestrial surface. It is also crucial to determine the biophysical processes in global environmental change. Land-use change showcases the management of the land while revealing what motivated the alteration of the land cover. The type of land use can represent local economic and social benefits, framed towards regional sustainable development. The Amazon stands out for being the largest tropical forest globally, with the most extraordinary biodiversity, and plays an essential role in climate regulation. The present work proposes to carry out a bibliometric analysis of 1590 articles indexed in the Scopus database. It uses both Microsoft Excel and VOSviewer software for the evaluation of author keywords, authors, and countries. The method encompasses (i) search criteria, (ii) search and document compilation, (iii) software selection and data extraction, and (iv) data analysis. The results classify the main research fields into nine main topics with increasing relevance: ‘Amazon’, ‘deforestation’, ‘remote sensing’, ‘land use and land cover change’, and ‘land use’. In conclusion, the cocitation authors’ network reveals the development of such areas and the interest they present due to their worldwide importance.

Ecology and larval population dynamics of the primary malaria vector Nyssorhynchus darlingi in a high transmission setting dominated by fish farming in western Amazonian Brazil

Vale do Rio Juruá in western Acre, Brazil, is a persistent malaria transmission hotspot partly due to fish farming development that was encouraged to improve local standards of living. Fish ponds can be productive breeding sites for Amazonian malaria vector species, including Nyssorhynchus darlingi, which, combined with high human density and mobility, add to the local malaria burden.This study reports entomological profile of immature and adult Ny. darlingi at three sites in Mâncio Lima, Acre, during the rainy and dry season (February to September, 2017). From 63 fishponds, 10,859 larvae were collected, including 5,512 first-instar Anophelinae larvae and 4,927 second, third and fourth-instars, of which 8.5% (n = 420) were Ny. darlingi. This species was most abundant in not-abandoned fishponds and in the presence of emerging aquatic vegetation. Seasonal analysis of immatures in urban landscapes found no significant difference in the numbers of Ny. darlingi, corresponding to equivalent population density during the rainy to dry transition period. However, in the rural landscape, significantly higher numbers of Ny. darlingi larvae were collected in August (IRR = 5.80, p = 0.037) and September (IRR = 6.62, p = 0.023) (dry season), compared to February (rainy season), suggesting important role of fishponds for vector population maintenance during the seasonal transition in this landscape type. Adult sampling detected mainly Ny. darlingi (~93%), with similar outdoor feeding behavior, but different abundance according to landscape profile: urban site 1 showed higher peaks of human biting rate in May (46 bites/person/hour), than February (4) and September (15), while rural site 3 shows similar HBR during the same sampling period (22, 24 and 21, respectively). This study contributes to a better understanding of the larvae biology of the main malaria vector in the Vale do Rio Juruá region and, ultimately will support vector control efforts.

What happens when forests fall?

Combining spatial and temporal data is helping researchers to understand how deforestation influences the risk of malaria.

Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study

The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km2 sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.

Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.

Biting mosquitos spread the malaria parasite to humans. Along the Mekong River in Southeast Asia, spending time in the surrounding forest increases a person's risk of malaria. This has led to a debate about whether deforestation in this area, which is called the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), will increase or decrease malaria transmission. The answer to the debate is not clear because some malaria-transmitting mosquitos thrive in heavily forested areas, in particular in the GMS, while others prefer less forested areas.

Scientists studying malaria in the Amazon in South America suspect that malaria transmission increases shortly after deforestation but decreases six to eight years later. Some studies have tested this ‘frontier malaria’ theory but the results have been conflicting. Fewer studies have tested this theory in Southeast Asia. But deforestation has been blamed for recent malaria outbreaks in the GMS.

Using data on malaria testing and forest cover in the GMS, Rerolle et al. show that deforestation around villages increases malaria transmission in the first two years and decreases malaria rates later. This trend was driven mostly by a type of malaria called Plasmodium falciparum and was less strong for Plasmodium vivax. The location of deforested areas also mattered. Deforestation within one to 10 kilometer of villages did not affect malaria rates. Deforestation further away in about a 30 kilometer radius did affect malaria transmission. Rerolle et al. suggest this may be because villagers have to spend longer times trekking through forests to hunt or harvest wood when the wider area is deforested.

Currently, National Malaria Control Programs in the GMS focus their efforts on reducing forest-related transmission. This study strengthens the evidence supporting this approach. The results also suggest that different malaria elimination strategies may be necessary for different types of malaria parasite. Using this new information could help malaria control programs better target resources or educate villagers on how to protect themselves. The innovative methods used by Rerolle et al. reveal a more complex role of deforestation in malaria transmission and may inspire other scientists to think more carefully about environmental drivers of malaria.

The influence of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure and diversity of the malaria vector Anopheles cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae)

Fragmentation of natural environments as a result of human interference has been associated with a decrease in species richness and increase in abundance of a few species that have adapted to these environments. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest, which has been undergoing an intense process of fragmentation and deforestation caused by human-made changes to the environment, is an important hotspot for malaria transmission. The main vector of simian and human malaria in this biome is the mosquito Anopheles cruzii. Anthropogenic processes reduce the availability of natural resources at the tree canopies, An. cruzii primary habitat. As a consequence, An. cruzii moves to the border of the Atlantic Forest nearing urban areas seeking resources, increasing their contact with humans in the process. We hypothesized that different levels of anthropogenic changes to the environment can be an important factor in driving the genetic structure and diversity in An. cruzii populations. Five different hypotheses using a cross-sectional and a longitudinal design were tested to assess genetic structure in sympatric An. cruzii populations and microevolutionary processes driving these populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were used to assess microgeographic genetic structure in An. cruzii populations in a low-endemicity area in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Our results show an overall weak genetic structure among the populations, indicating a high gene flow system. However, our results also pointed to the presence of significant genetic structure between sympatric An. cruzii populations collected at ground and tree-canopy habitats in the urban environment and higher genetic variation in the ground-level population. This indicates that anthropogenic modifications leading to habitat fragmentation and a higher genetic diversity and structure in ground-level populations could be driving the behavior of An. cruzii, ultimately increasing its contact with humans. Understanding how anthropogenic changes in natural areas affect An. cruzii is essential for the development of more effective mosquito control strategies and, on a broader scale, for malaria-elimination efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Influence of land use and host species on parasite richness, prevalence and co-infection patterns

Tropical forests are experiencing increasing impacts from a multitude of anthropogenic activities such as logging and conversion to agricultural use. These perturbations are expected to have strong impacts on ecological interactions and on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. To date, no clear picture of the effects of deforestation on vector-borne disease transmission has emerged. This is associated with the challenge of studying complex systems where many vertebrate hosts and vectors co-exist. To overcome this problem, we focused on an innately simplified system - a small oceanic island (São Tomé, Gulf of Guinea). We analyzed the impacts of human land-use on host-parasite interactions by sampling the bird community (1735 samples from 30 species) in natural and anthropogenic land use at different elevations, and screened individuals for haemosporidian parasites from three genera (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon). Overall, Plasmodium had the highest richness but the lowest prevalence, while Leucocytozoon diversity was the lowest despite having the highest prevalence. Interestingly, co-infections (i.e. intra-host diversity) involved primarily Leucocytozoon lineages (95%). We also found marked differences between bird species and habitats. Some bird species showed low prevalence but harbored high diversity of parasites, while others showed high prevalence but were infected with fewer lineages. These infection dynamics are most likely driven by host specificity of parasites and intrinsic characteristics of hosts. In addition, Plasmodium was more abundant in disturbed habitats and at lower elevations, while Leucocytozoon was more prevalent in forest areas and at higher elevations. These results likely reflect the ecological requirements of their vectors: mosquitoes and black flies, respectively.

A interface entre saúde, mudanças climáticas e uso do solo no Brasil: uma análise da evolução da produção científica internacional entre 1990 e 2019

Abstract O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a evolução da produção científica internacional sobre a interface entre saúde, mudanças climáticas e uso do solo nas últimas décadas, enfatizando a compreensão da saúde em seu sentido amplo, com destaque às dimensões ambientais, sociais e climáticas, a partir das publicações indexadas na base de dados Scopus. Para alcançar esse objetivo, aplicamos duas metodologias: (1) revisão sistemática da literatura internacional, do tipo descritivo-analítica, incorporando métodos qualitativos e quantitativos; e (2) análise de redes, partindo da categorização da dinâmica de palavras-chave com o uso do software VOSviewer. Aplicando filtros de busca na base de dados, resultaram 283 artigos, dos quais 162 representam a interface entre saúde e mudanças climáticas; 86, entre saúde e uso do solo; 13, entre uso do solo e mudanças climáticas; e, por fim, 22 representaram a intersecção dos três temas. Verifica-se aumento crescente no número de publicações na última década, com destaque aos anos de 2008, 2014 e 2018. Prevalece o uso de metodologias multivariadas, como modelagem de nicho ecológico, modelagem de nicho de entropia máxima, avaliação de ciclo de vida, análise de áreas sentinelas, análise de múltiplos resíduos, sensoriamento remoto e análise de regressão linear, dentre outras, que evidenciam a existência de múltiplos drivers e vulnerabilidades socioambientais ao tratar da relação entre mudanças climáticas, saúde e uso do solo. O maior desafio ao agregar variáveis climáticas, socioambientais e epidemiológicas é a disponibilidade de dados primários e secundários em escala municipal com abrangência nacional e série temporal mínima de 20 anos.

The Role of Ecological Linkage Mechanisms in Plasmodium knowlesi Transmission and Spread

Defining the linkages between landscape change, disease ecology and human health is essential to explain and predict the emergence of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria, a zoonotic parasite residing in Southeast Asian macaques, and transmitted by species of Anopheles mosquitos. Changing patterns of land use throughout Southeast Asia, particularly deforestation, are suggested to be the primary drivers behind the recent spread of this zoonotic parasite in humans. Local ecological changes at the landscape scale appear to be increasing the risk of disease in humans by altering the dynamics of transmission between the parasite and its primary hosts. This paper will focus on the emergence of P. knowlesi in humans in Malaysian Borneo and the ecological linkage mechanisms suggested to be playing an important role.

Impact of deforestation on the abundance, diversity, and richness of Culex mosquitoes in a southwest Cameroon tropical rainforest

Deforestation is a major threat to biodiversity but little data exist on how deforestation in real-time affects the overall mosquito species community despite its known role in the transmission of diseases. We compared the abundance and diversity of Culex mosquitoes before and after deforestation along a gradient of three different anthropogenic disturbance levels in a tropical rainforest in southwestern Cameroon. The collections were conducted in unlogged forest (January, 2016), selectively logged forest (January, 2017), and within a young palm plantation (October, 2017) using net traps, sweep nets, resting traps, and dipping for immature stages in water bodies. Mosquitoes were morphologically identified to subspecies, groups, and species. A total of 2,556 mosquitoes was collected of which 1,663 (65.06%) belong to the genus Culex, (n=427 (25.68%) in the unlogged forest; n=900 (54.12%) in the selectively logged forest; and n=336 (20.2%) in the young palm plantation) with a significant difference among the habitats. Diversity and richness of mosquitoes varied significantly among habitats with the highest values found in the selectively logged forest (H=2.4; DS=0.87; S=33) and the lowest value in the unlogged forest (H=1.37; DS=0.68; S=13). The results of this study showed that deforestation affects the abundance and diversity of Culex mosquitoes and favors the invasion of anthropophilic mosquitoes. Higher mosquito abundance and diversity in the selectively logged forest than in the pristine forest is notable and some explanations for these differences are discussed.

Minimal genetic differentiation of the malaria vector Nyssorhynchus darlingi associated with forest cover level in Amazonian Brazil

The relationship between deforestation and malaria in Amazonian Brazil is complex, and a deeper understanding of this relationship is required to inform effective control measures in this region. Here, we are particularly interested in characterizing the impact of land use and land cover change on the genetics of the major regional vector of malaria, Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root). We used nextera-tagmented, Reductively Amplified DNA (nextRAD) genotyping-by-sequencing to genotype 164 Ny. darlingi collected from 16 collection sites with divergent forest cover levels in seven municipalities in four municipality groups that span the state of Amazonas in northwestern Amazonian Brazil: São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Presidente Figueiredo, four municipalities in the area around Cruzeiro do Sul, and Lábrea. Using a dataset of 5,561 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we investigated the genetic structure of these Ny. darlingi populations with a combination of model- and non-model-based analyses. We identified weak to moderate genetic differentiation among the four municipality groups. There was no evidence for microgeographic genetic structure of Ny. darlingi among forest cover levels within the municipality groups, indicating that there may be gene flow across areas of these municipalities with different degrees of deforestation. Additionally, we conducted an environmental association analysis using two outlier detection methods to determine whether individual SNPs were associated with forest cover level without affecting overall population genetic structure. We identified 14 outlier SNPs, and investigated functions associated with their proximal genes, which could be further characterized in future studies.

Malaria risk assessment and mapping using satellite imagery and boosted regression trees in the Peruvian Amazon

This is the first study to assess the risk of co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Peruvian Amazon using boosted regression tree (BRT) models based on social and environmental predictors derived from satellite imagery and data. Yearly cross-validated BRT models were created to discriminate high-risk (annual parasite index API > 10 cases/1000 people) and very-high-risk for malaria (API > 50 cases/1000 people) in 2766 georeferenced villages of Loreto department, between 2010-2017 as other parts in the article (graphs, tables, and texts). Predictors were cumulative annual rainfall, forest coverage, annual forest loss, annual mean land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), shortest distance to rivers, time to populated villages, and population density. BRT models built with predictor data of a given year efficiently discriminated the malaria risk for that year in villages (area under the ROC curve (AUC) > 0.80), and most models also effectively predicted malaria risk in the following year. Cumulative rainfall, population density and time to populated villages were consistently the top three predictors for both P. vivax and P. falciparum incidence. Maps created using the BRT models characterize the spatial distribution of the malaria incidence in Loreto and should contribute to malaria-related decision making in the area.

Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing

Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (∼9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km² lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (∼219 fewer km² cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health.

Prevalence of Plasmodium parasites in non-human primates and mosquitoes in areas with different degrees of fragmentation in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Parasites from the genus Plasmodium, the aetiological agent of malaria in humans, can also infect non-human primates (NHP), increasing the potential risk of zoonotic transmission with its associated global public health concerns. In Colombia, there are no recent studies on Plasmodium spp. infecting free-ranging NHP. Thus, this study aimed to determine the diversity of Plasmodium species circulating in fragmented forests in central Colombia, both in Anopheles mosquitoes and in the four sympatric NHP in the region (Ateles hybridus, Cebus versicolor, Alouatta seniculus and Aotus griseimembra), in order to evaluate the risk of infection to humans associated with the presence of sylvatic hosts and vectors infected with Plasmodium spp.

METHODS

Overall, there were collected 166 fecal samples and 25 blood samples from NHP, and 442 individuals of Anopheles spp. DNA extraction, nested PCR using mitochondrial (cox3 gene) and ribosomal (18S rDNA) primers, electrophoresis and sequencing were conducted in order to identify Plasmodium spp. from the samples.

RESULTS

Plasmodium falciparum was detected in two fecal samples of Alouatta seniculus, while Plasmodium vivax/simium infected Ateles hybridus, Cebus versicolor and Alouatta seniculus. Co-infections with P. vivax/simium and Plasmodium malariae/brasilianum were found in three individuals. The highest prevalence from blood samples was found for Plasmodium malariae/brasilianum in two Alouatta seniculus while Plasmodium vivax/simium was most prevalent in fecal samples, infecting four individuals of Alouatta seniculus. Seven Anopheles species were identified in the study site: Anopheles (Anopheles) punctimacula, Anopheles (An.) malefactor, Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) oswaldoi, Anopheles (Nys.) triannulatus, Anopheles (An.) neomaculipalpus, Anopheles (Nys.) braziliensis and Anopheles (Nys.) nuneztovari. Infection with P. vivax/simium was found in An. nuneztovari, An. neomaculipalpus, and An. triannulatus. Furthermore, An. oswaldoi and An. triannulatus were found infected with P. malariae/brasilianum. The effect of fragmentation and distance to the nearest town measured in five forests with different degrees of fragmentation was not statistically significant on the prevalence of Plasmodium in NHP, but forest fragmentation did have an effect on the Minimum Infection Rate (MIR) in Anopheles mosquitoes.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of Plasmodium spp. in NHP and Anopheles spp. in fragmented forests in Colombia has important epidemiological implications in the human-NHP interface and the associated risk of malaria transmission.

[Tropical forests, changes in land uses and emerging infectious hazards]

Tropical forests have the greatest biodiversity in macroorganisms on the planet, and they are also the richest in myriads of microorganisms for which so little is known today. Over the last 50 years, many of these microbial forms, that are naturally embedded into wildlife or the environment, e.g. soil, water, have revealed to be more or less dangerous pathogens for people exposed to these new natural threats, i.e. emerging infectious diseases. Here, we discuss about the extraordinary diversity of microorganisms that are present in tropical rainforests. We first present the main global distribution patterns for microbial forms at the interface between tropical wildlife and human, and second we provide an epidemiological picture on how microbial transmission from wild animals or the environment to people operates in tropical areas through four case-studies. We examine the animal hosts or environment, and transmission mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic or environmentally-persistent microbes, and identify land-use changes through deforestation for the development of agriculture, and contacts with wildlife notably through bush meat hunting as major drivers that facilitate mixing of diverse animal hosts and their microbial communities with human during practices. With an increase of deforestation in the tropics and more contacts between wildlife and people, new emerging disease events with high epidemic and pandemic potential will happen, that should guide new health policies and strategies at the global scale.

Malaria vector species in Amazonian Peru co-occur in larval habitats but have distinct larval microbial communities

In Amazonian Peru, the primary malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus darlingi (formerly Anopheles darlingi), is difficult to target using standard vector control methods because it mainly feeds and rests outdoors. Larval source management could be a useful supplementary intervention, but to determine its feasibility, more detailed studies on the larval ecology of Ny. darlingi are essential. We conducted a multi-level study of the larval ecology of Anophelinae mosquitoes in the peri-Iquitos region of Amazonian Peru, examining the environmental characteristics of the larval habitats of four species, comparing the larval microbiota among species and habitats, and placing Ny. darlingi larval habitats in the context of spatial heterogeneity in human malaria transmission. We collected Ny. darlingi, Nyssorhynchus rangeli (formerly Anopheles rangeli), Nyssorhynchus triannulatus s.l. (formerly Anopheles triannulatus s.l.), and Nyssorhynchus sp. nr. konderi (formerly Anopheles sp. nr. konderi) from natural and artificial water bodies throughout the rainy and dry seasons. We found that, consistent with previous studies in this region and in Brazil, the presence of Ny. darlingi was significantly associated with water bodies in landscapes with more recent deforestation and lower light intensity. Nyssorhynchus darlingi presence was also significantly associated with a lower vegetation index, other Anophelinae species, and emergent vegetation. Though they were collected in the same water bodies, the microbial communities of Ny. darlingi larvae were distinct from those of Ny. rangeli and Ny. triannulatus s.l., providing evidence either for a species-specific larval microbiome or for segregation of these species in distinct microhabitats within each water body. We demonstrated that houses with more reported malaria cases were located closer to Ny. darlingi larval habitats; thus, targeted control of these sites could help ameliorate malaria risk. The co-occurrence of Ny. darlingi larvae in water bodies with other putative malaria vectors increases the potential impact of larval source management in this region.

Vector competence, vectorial capacity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and the basic reproduction number of Plasmodium vivax in agricultural settlements in the Amazonian Region of Brazil

Background

Brazilian malaria control programmes successfully reduced the incidence and mortality rates from 2005 to 2016. Since 2017, increased malaria has been reported across the Amazon. Few field studies focus on the primary malaria vector in high to moderate endemic areas, Nyssorhynchus darlingi, as the key entomological component of malaria risk, and on the metrics of Plasmodium vivax propagation in Amazonian rural communities.

Methods

Human landing catch collections were carried out in 36 houses of 26 communities in five municipalities in the Brazilian states of Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia states, with API (> 30). In addition, data on the number of locally acquired symptomatic infections were employed in mathematical modelling analyses carried out to determine Ny. darlingi vector competence and vectorial capacity to P. vivax; and to calculate the basic reproduction number for P. vivax.

Results

Entomological indices and malaria metrics ranged among localities: prevalence of P. vivax infection in Ny. darlingi, from 0.243% in Mâncio Lima, Acre to 3.96% in Machadinho D’Oeste, Rondônia; daily human-biting rate per person from 23 ± 1.18 in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, to 66 ± 2.41 in Lábrea, Amazonas; vector competence from 0.00456 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Amazonas to 0.04764 in Mâncio Lima, Acre; vectorial capacity from 0.0836 in Mâncio Lima, to 1.5 in Machadinho D’Oeste. The estimated R₀ for P. vivax (PvR₀) was 3.3 in Mâncio Lima, 7.0 in Lábrea, 16.8 in Cruzeiro do Sul, 55.5 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, and 58.7 in Machadinho D’Oeste. Correlation between P. vivax prevalence in Ny. darlingi and vector competence was non-linear whereas association between prevalence of P. vivax in mosquitoes, vectorial capacity and R₀ was linear and positive.

Conclusions

In spite of low vector competence of Ny. darlingi to P. vivax, parasite propagation in the human population is enhanced by the high human-biting rate, and relatively high vectorial capacity. The high PvR₀ values suggest hyperendemicity in Machadinho D’Oeste and São Gabriel da Cachoeira at levels similar to those found for P. falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa regions. Mass screening for parasite reservoirs, effective anti-malarial drugs and vector control interventions will be necessary to shrinking transmission in Amazonian rural communities, Brazil.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2753-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ordinal regression models for zero-inflated and/or over-dispersed count data

Count data commonly arise in natural sciences but adequately modeling these data is challenging due to zero-inflation and over-dispersion. While multiple parametric modeling approaches have been proposed, unfortunately there is no consensus regarding how to choose the best model. In this article, we propose a ordinal regression model (MN) as a default model for count data given that this model is shown to fit well data that arise from several types of discrete distributions. We extend this model to allow for automatic model selection (MN-MS) and show that the MN-MS model generates superior inference when compared to using the full model or more traditional model selection approaches. The MN-MS model is used to determine how human biting rate of mosquitoes, known to be able to transmit malaria, are influenced by environmental factors in the Peruvian Amazon. The MN-MS model had one of the best fit and out-of-sample predictive skill amongst all models. While A. darlingi is strongly associated with highly anthropized landscapes, all the other mosquito species had higher mean biting rates in landscapes with a lower fraction of exposed soil and urban area, revealing a striking shift in species composition. We believe that the MN and MN-MS models are valuable additions to the modelling toolkit employed by environmental modelers and quantitative ecologists.

Predictive analysis across spatial scales links zoonotic malaria to deforestation

The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.

The impact of industrial activities on vector-borne disease transmission

Industrial activities have produced profound changes in the natural environment, including the mass removal of trees, fragmentation of habitats, and creation of larval mosquito breeding sites, that have allowed the vectors of disease pathogens to thrive. We conducted a review of the literature to assess the impact of industrial activities on vector-borne disease transmission. Our study shows that industrial activities may be coupled with significant changes to human demographics that can potentially increase contact between pathogens, vectors and hosts, and produce a shift of parasites and susceptible populations between low and high disease endemic areas. Indeed, where vector-borne diseases and industrial activities intersect, large numbers of potentially immunologically naïve people may be exposed to infection and lack the knowledge and means to protect themselves from infection. Such areas are typically associated with inadequate access to quality health care, thus allowing industrial development and production sites to become important foci of transmission. The altered local vector ecologies, and the changes in disease dynamics that changes affect, create challenges for under-resourced health care and vector-control systems.

Diversity of Anopheles mosquitoes from four landscapes in the highest endemic region of malaria transmission in Brazil

Malaria transmission in South America is overwhelmingly located in the Amazon region with limited cases outside that biome. A key factor in the mitigation of malaria transmission is the determination of vector diversity and bionomics in endemic areas. Anopheles mosquitoes were collected in four different landscapes of Cruzeiro do Sul-Acre, the current area with highest malaria transmission in Brazil. We performed adult mosquito collections every three months over two years and associated vector occurrence with local abiotic factors. A total of 1,754 Anopheles belonging to nine species were collected, but only four of them (An. albitarsis s.l. Lynch-Arribalzaga, An. braziliensis Chagas, An. peryassui Dyar and Knab, and An. triannulatus Neiva and Pinto) represented 77.1% of the total. Vector density and diversity was uneven across field sites and collection periods. Higher Anopheles abundance (54.8%) and richness were observed in a deforested palm tree area (IFC), with An. braziliensis the most frequent mosquito (40.5%). Only 7.3% of mosquitoes were collected in the SAB village, but 66.4% of them were An. darlingi and An. oswaldoi, species often regarded as primary and secondary vectors of malaria in the Amazon region. A distinct biting preference was observed between 18:00-19:40. The distance from the nearest breeding site and minimum temperature explained 41.6% of the Anopheles community composition. Our data show that the Anopheles species composition may present great variation on a microgeographic scale.

Metanetwork Transmission Model for Predicting a Malaria-Control Strategy

Background: Mosquitoes are the primary vectors responsible for malaria transmission to humans, with numerous experiments having been conducted to aid in the control of malaria transmission. One of the main approaches aims to develop malaria parasite resistance within the mosquito population by introducing a resistance (R) allele. However, when considering this approach, some critical factors, such as the life of the mosquito, female mosquito fertility capacity, and human and mosquito mobility, have not been considered. Thus, an understanding of how mosquitoes and humans affect disease dynamics is needed to better inform malaria control policymaking. Methods: In this study, a method was proposed to create a metanetwork on the basis of the geographic maps of Gambia, and a model was constructed to simulate evolution within a mixed population, with factors such as birth, death, reproduction, biting, infection, incubation, recovery, and transmission between populations considered in the network metrics. First, the same number of refractory mosquitoes (RR genotype) was introduced into each population, and the prevalence of the R allele (the ratio of resistant alleles to all alleles) and malaria were examined. In addition, a series of simulations were performed to evaluate two different deployment strategies for the reduction of the prevalence of malaria. The R allele and malaria prevalence were calculated for both the strategies, with 10,000 refractory mosquitoes deployed into randomly selected populations or selection based on nodes with top-betweenness values. The 10,000 mosquitoes were deployed among 1, 5, 10, 20, or 40 populations. Results: The simulations in this paper showed that a higher RR genotype (resistant-resistant genes) ratio leads to a higher R allele prevalence and lowers malaria prevalence. Considering the cost of deployment, the simulation was performed with 10,000 refractory mosquitoes deployed among 1 or 5 populations, but this approach did not reduce the original malaria prevalence. Thus, instead, the 10,000 refractory mosquitoes were distributed among 10, 20, or 40 populations and were shown to effectively reduce the original malaria prevalence. Thus, deployment among a relatively small fraction of central nodes can offer an effective strategy to reduce malaria. Conclusion: The standard network centrality measure is suitable for planning the deployment of refractory mosquitoes. Importance: Malaria is an infectious disease that is caused by a plasmodial parasite, and some control strategies have focused on genetically modifying the mosquitoes. This work aims to create a model that takes into account mosquito development and malaria transmission among the population and how these factors influence disease dynamics so as to better inform malaria-control policymaking.

Exploring malaria vector diversity on the Amazon Frontier

BACKGROUND

Deforestation in the Amazon and the social vulnerability of its settler communities has been associated with increased malaria incidence. The feeding biology of the most important malaria vectors in the region, notably Nyssorhynchus darlingi, compounds efforts to control vectors and reduce transmission of what has become known as "Frontier Malaria". Exploring Anophelinae mosquito diversity is fundamental to understanding the species responsible for transmission and developing appropriate management and intervention strategies for malaria control in the Amazon River basin.

METHODS

This study describes Anophelinae mosquito diversity from settler communities affected by Frontier Malaria in the states of Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia by analysing COI gene data using cluster and tree-based species delimitation approaches.

RESULTS

In total, 270 specimens from collection sites were sequenced and these were combined with 151 reference (GenBank) sequences in the analysis to assist in species identification. Conservative estimates found that the number of species collected at these sites was between 23 (mPTP partition) and 27 (strict ABGD partition) species, up to 13 of which appeared to be new. Nyssorhynchus triannulatus and Nyssorhynchus braziliensis displayed exceptional levels of intraspecific genetic diversity but there was little to no support for putative species complex status.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that Anophelinae mosquito diversity continues to be underestimated in poorly sampled areas where frontier malaria is a major public health concern. The findings will help shape future studies of vector incrimination and transmission dynamics in these areas and support efforts to develop more effective vector control and transmission reduction strategies in settler communities in the Amazon River basin.

Do hotspots fuel malaria transmission: a village-scale spatio-temporal analysis of a 2-year cohort study in The Gambia

BACKGROUND

Despite the biological plausibility of hotspots fueling malaria transmission, the evidence to support this concept has been mixed. If transmission spreads from high burden to low burden households in a consistent manner, then this could have important implications for control and elimination program development.

METHODS

Data from a longitudinal cohort in The Gambia was analyzed. All consenting individuals residing in 12 villages across the country were sampled monthly from June (dry season) to December 2013 (wet season), in April 2014 (mid dry season), and monthly from June to December 2014. A study nurse stationed within each village recorded passively detected malaria episodes between visits. Plasmodium falciparum infections were determined by polymerase chain reaction and analyzed using a geostatistical model.

RESULTS

Household-level observed monthly incidence ranged from 0 to 0.50 infection per person (interquartile range = 0.02-0.10) across the sampling months, and high burden households exist across all study villages. There was limited evidence of a spatio-temporal pattern at the monthly timescale irrespective of transmission intensity. Within-household transmission was the most plausible hypothesis examined to explain the observed heterogeneity in infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Within-village malaria transmission patterns are concentrated in a small proportion of high burden households, but patterns are stochastic regardless of endemicity. Our findings support the notion of transmission occurring at the household and village scales but not the use of a targeted approach to interrupt spreading of infections from high to low burden areas within villages in this setting.