Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016

Ebola disease outbreak caused by the Sudan virus in Uganda, 2022: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Uganda has had seven Ebola disease outbreaks, between 2000 and 2022. On Sept 20, 2022, the Ministry of Health declared a Sudan virus disease outbreak in Mubende District, Central Uganda. We describe the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics.

METHODS

For this descriptive study, cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed using Ministry of Health case definitions. We investigated all reported cases to obtain data on case-patient demographics, exposures, and signs and symptoms, and identified transmission chains. We conducted a descriptive epidemiological study and also calculated basic reproduction number (Ro) estimates.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 8 and Nov 27, 2022, 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable) were identified from nine (6%) of 146 districts. The median age was 29 years (IQR 20-38), 95 (58%) of 164 patients were male, and 77 (47%) patients died. Symptom onsets ranged from Aug 8 to Nov 27, 2022. The case fatality rate was highest in children younger than 10 years (17 [74%] of 23 patients). Fever (135 [84%] of 160 patients), vomiting (93 [58%] patients), weakness (89 [56%] patients), and diarrhoea (81 [51%] patients) were the most common symptoms; bleeding was uncommon (21 [13%] patients). Before outbreak identification, most case-patients (26 [60%] of 43 patients) sought care at private health facilities. The median incubation was 6 days (IQR 5-8), and median time from onset to death was 10 days (7-23). Most early cases represented health-care-associated transmission (43 [26%] of 164 patients); most later cases represented household transmission (109 [66%]). Overall Ro was 1·25.

INTERPRETATION

Despite delayed detection, the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak was rapidly controlled, possibly thanks to a low Ro. Children (aged <10 years) were at the highest risk of death, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to improve their outcomes during Ebola disease outbreaks. Initial care-seeking occurred at facilities outside the government system, showing a need to ensure that private and public facilities receive training to identify possible Ebola disease cases during an outbreak. Health-care-associated transmission in private health facilities drove the early outbreak, suggesting gaps in infection prevention and control.

FUNDING

None.

Building a High-Level Isolation Unit in Rwanda and Establishing a Training Program for the Medical Management of Patients With High-Consequence Infectious Diseases

Rwanda is a country in East Africa, a region characterized by highly mobile populations and outbreaks of high-consequence infectious diseases occurring on a regular basis. To increase the level of outbreak preparedness in the region, the Rwandan government and the German Ministry of Health signed a joint agreement to construct a new high-level isolation unit in Rwanda, the first in East Africa, and implement a training program for Rwandan healthcare workers to equip them with the necessary skills and knowledge for medical management of patients under high-level isolation conditions, including intensive care treatment. To better understand the scope and format of the planned training program, a needs assessment was performed based on findings from a standardized survey of 4 intensive care units in Rwanda as well as observations from 2 members of a German high-level isolation unit who completed clinical internships at Rwandan hospitals. In this case study, we describe the necessary steps to promote the sustainability and capabilities of the new high-level isolation unit in Kigali and ensure the successful implementation of the training program.

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of 'Lassa-X'-a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant-and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1-3.4 million) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over 10 years in 2.0 million (793,800-3.9 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified 'endemic' districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1 million ($8.2-$39.0 million) in lost DALY value and $128.2 million ($67.2-$231.9 million) in societal costs (2021 international dollars ($)). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2 million DALYs within 2 years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

Delayed treatment of cynomolgus macaques with a FVM04/CA45 monoclonal antibody cocktail provides complete protection against lethal Sudan virus infection

Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) is a member of the genus Ebolavirus (Family Filoviridae) and has caused sporadic outbreaks of Ebola disease (EBOD), or more specifically Sudan virus disease (SVD), with high mortality rates in Africa. Current vaccines and therapies that have been developed for filoviruses are almost all specific for Ebola virus (EBOV; of the species Zaire ebolavirus), and there is a current lack of therapeutics specific for SUDV. The recent SUDV outbreak in Uganda, which was distributed across multiple districts, including Kampala, a densely populated urban center, highlights the critical need for the development of novel SUDV-specific or pan-Ebola virus therapeutics. Previous work has characterized two monoclonal antibodies, FVM04 and CA45, which have neutralization capabilities against both EBOV and SUDV and have shown protective efficacy in animal challenge studies. Here, we expand upon this work, showing that treatment with a monoclonal antibody cocktail consisting of FVM04 and CA45 provides full protection against lethal SUDV infection in cynomolgus macaques. Studies that evaluate outcomes at late time points after infection, once clinical signs of illness are apparent, are vital for assessing the therapeutic efficacy of antibody therapeutics. We have shown that when treatment is initiated as late as 5 days after infection, with a second dose given on day 8, that treated groups showed few clinical signs or morbidity, with complete survival. This work provides further evidence that FVM04 and CA45 have strong therapeutic potential against SUDV and their development as a pan-Ebola virus therapeutic should be pursued.

IMPORTANCE

There are currently no approved vaccines or therapeutics for Sudan virus, a filovirus which is highly related to Ebola virus and causes similar disease and outbreaks. In this study, a cocktail of two potent monoclonal antibodies that effectively neutralize Sudan virus was tested in a nonhuman primate model of Sudan virus disease. Treatment was highly effective, even when initiated as late as 5 days after infection, when clinical signs of infection were already evident. All treated animals showed complete recovery from infection, with little evidence of disease, while all animals that received a control treatment succumbed to infection within 8 days. The study further demonstrated the strong therapeutic potential of the antibody treatment and supported further development for use in Sudan virus outbreaks.

Ebola virus disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review

Ebola virus disease poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of Ebola virus disease transmission models and parameters published from database inception to July 7, 2023, from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted with a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable, as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random-effect estimates were 15·4 days (95% CI 13·2-17·5) for the serial interval, 8·5 days (7·7-9·2) for the incubation period, 9·3 days (8·5-10·1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay, and 13·0 days (10·4-15·7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar, albeit with narrower CIs. Case-fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. Although a substantial body of literature exists on Ebola virus disease models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the west African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus, which leaves a key gap in our knowledge regarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.

Computational mining of B cell receptor repertoires reveals antigen-specific and convergent responses to Ebola vaccination

Outbreaks of Ebolaviruses, such as Sudanvirus (SUDV) in Uganda in 2022, demonstrate that species other than the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), which is currently the sole virus represented in current licensed vaccines, remain a major threat to global health. There is a pressing need to develop effective pan-species vaccines and novel monoclonal antibody-based therapeutics for Ebolavirus disease. In response to recent outbreaks, the two dose, heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen was developed and was tested in a large phase II clinical trial (EBL2001) as part of the EBOVAC2 consortium. Here, we perform bulk sequencing of the variable heavy chain (VH) of B cell receptors (BCR) in forty participants from the EBL2001 trial in order to characterize the BCR repertoire in response to vaccination with Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo. We develop a comprehensive database, EBOV-AbDab, of publicly available Ebolavirus-specific antibody sequences. We then use our database to predict the antigen-specific component of the vaccinee repertoires. Our results show striking convergence in VH germline gene usage across participants following the MVA-BN-Filo dose, and provide further evidence of the role of IGHV3-15 and IGHV3-13 antibodies in the B cell response to Ebolavirus glycoprotein. Furthermore, we found that previously described Ebola-specific mAb sequences present in EBOV-AbDab were sufficient to describe at least one of the ten most expanded BCR clonotypes in more than two thirds of our cohort of vaccinees following the boost, providing proof of principle for the utility of computational mining of immune repertoires.

Serological evidence of zoonotic filovirus exposure among bushmeat hunters in Guinea

Human Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreaks caused by persistent EBOV infection raises questions on the role of zoonotic spillover in filovirus epidemiology. To characterise filovirus zoonotic exposure, we collected cross-sectional serum samples from bushmeat hunters (n = 498) in Macenta Prefecture Guinea, adjacent to the index site of the 2013 EBOV-Makona spillover event. We identified distinct immune signatures (20/498, 4.0%) to multiple EBOV antigens (GP, NP, VP40) using stepwise ELISA and Western blot analysis and, live EBOV neutralisation (5/20; 25%). Using comparative serological data from PCR-confirmed survivors of the 2013-2016 EBOV outbreak, we demonstrated that most signatures (15/20) were not plausibly explained by prior EBOV-Makona exposure. Subsequent data-driven modelling of EBOV immunological outcomes to remote-sensing environmental data also revealed consistent associations with intact closed canopy forest. Together our findings suggest exposure to other closely related filoviruses prior to the 2013-2016 West Africa epidemic and highlight future surveillance priorities.

Impacts of observation frequency on proximity contact data and modeled transmission dynamics

Transmission of many communicable diseases depends on proximity contacts among humans. Modeling the dynamics of proximity contacts can help determine whether an outbreak is likely to trigger an epidemic. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the observation frequency and scanning duration used for contact detection. The choice of observation frequency should depend on the characteristics of a particular pathogen and accompanying disease. We downsampled data from five contact network studies, each measuring participant-participant contact every 5 minutes for durations of four or more weeks. These studies included a total of 284 participants and exhibited different community structures. We found that for epidemiological models employing high-resolution proximity data, both the observation method and observation frequency configured to collect proximity data impact the simulation results. This impact is subject to the population's characteristics as well as pathogen infectiousness. By comparing the performance of two observation methods, we found that in most cases, half-hourly Bluetooth discovery for one minute can collect proximity data that allows agent-based transmission models to produce a reasonable estimation of the attack rate, but more frequent Bluetooth discovery is preferred to model individual infection risks or for highly transmissible pathogens. Our findings inform the empirical basis for guidelines to inform data collection that is both efficient and effective.

Child mortality after the Ebola virus disease outbreak across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

OBJECTIVES

The Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2016 had a substantial impact on population health in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This study aimed to assess whether the impact continued after the outbreak ended in regards to child mortality.

METHODS

Cross-sectional logistic regressions were run using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys in the three countries.

RESULTS

The average child mortality rate was significantly lower for children born after the outbreak ended than those born before. However, the association of the child mortality rate with an increase in the number of cases per 100,000 was significantly stronger for children born after the outbreak ended. Also, the change in the utilization of maternal health services after the outbreak varied across health services.

CONCLUSIONS

Restoring disrupted child health services to pre-Ebola levels may be more difficult in areas that suffered a higher number of cases. The recovery of maternal health services after the outbreak might be affected by factors such as the resilience of health systems at the subnational level. This study suggests that strengthening health system is crucial to fully recover from the Ebola outbreak and to cope with future epidemics.

Geospatial clustering and correlates of deaths during the Ebola outbreak in Liberia: a Bayesian geoadditive semiparametric analysis of nationally representative cross-sectional survey data

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the extent of geospatial clustering of reported deaths during the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and the covariates associated with the observed clustering.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Male and female respondents from the 2019-2020 Liberia Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis covered 11 928 (women=7854 and men=4074) respondents for whom complete data were available.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome variable was the death of a household member or relative during the Ebola outbreak in Liberia, coded 1 if the respondent reported death and 0 otherwise.

METHODS

We applied the Bayesian geoadditive semiparametric regression to examine the extent of geospatial clustering of deaths at the district-level and community-level development and socioeconomic factors associated with the observed clustering.

RESULTS

Almost a quarter (24.8%) of all respondents reported the death of a household member or relative during the Ebola outbreak. The results show that deaths were clustered within districts in six (Grand Cape Mount, Bomi, Monsterrado, Margibi, Gbarpolu and Lofa) of the 15 counties in Liberia. Districts with high death clustering were all near or shared borders with Sierra Leone and Guinea. The community-level development indicators (global human footprint, gross cell production and population density) had a non-linear associative effect with the observed spatial clustering. Also, respondents' characteristics (respondent's age (non-linear effect), educational attainment and urban-rural place of residence) were associated with the observed clustering. The results show that death clustering during outbreaks was constrained to poor settings and impacts areas of moderate and high socioeconomic development.

CONCLUSION

Reported deaths during the Ebola outbreak in Liberia were not randomly distributed at the district level but clustered. The findings highlight the need to identify at-risk populations during epidemics and respond with the needed interventions to save lives.

THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics

Real-time estimation of the reproduction number has become the focus of modelling groups around the world as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolds. One of the most widely adopted means of inference of the reproduction number is via the renewal equation, which uses the incidence of infection and the generation time distribution. In this paper, we derive a multi-type equivalent to the renewal equation to estimate a reproduction number which accounts for heterogeneity in transmissibility including through asymptomatic transmission, symptomatic isolation and vaccination. We demonstrate how use of the renewal equation that misses these heterogeneities can result in biased estimates of the reproduction number. While the bias is small with symptomatic isolation, it can be much larger with asymptomatic transmission or transmission from vaccinated individuals if these groups exhibit substantially different generation time distributions to unvaccinated symptomatic transmitters, whose generation time distribution is often well defined. The bias in estimate becomes larger with greater population size or transmissibility of the poorly characterized group. We apply our methodology to Ebola in West Africa in 2014 and the SARS-CoV-2 in the UK in 2020-2021.

Isothermal nucleic acid amplification technology for rapid detection of virus

While the research field and industrial market of in vitro diagnosis (IVD) thrived during and post the COVID-19 pandemic, the development of isothermal nucleic acid amplification test (INAAT) based rapid diagnosis was engendered in a global wised large measure as a problem-solving exercise. This review systematically analyzed the recent advances of INAAT strategies with practical case for the real-world scenario virus detection applications. With the qualities that make INAAT systems useful for making diagnosis relevant decisions, the key performance indicators and the cost-effectiveness of enzyme-assisted methods and enzyme-free methods were compared. The modularity of nucleic acid amplification reactions that can lead to thresholding signal amplifications using INAAT reagents and their methodology design were examined, alongside the potential application with rapid test platform/device integration. Given that clinical practitioners are, by and large, unaware of many the isothermal nucleic acid test advances. This review could bridge the arcane research field of different INAAT systems and signal output modalities with end-users in clinic when choosing suitable test kits and/or methods for rapid virus detection.

Ebola Virus Disease and Current Therapeutic Strategies: A Review

The Ebola virus disease is a severe hemorrhagic fever that affects humans and other primates. Ebola virus, the causative agent of the disease, is transmitted to humans from wild animals and is highly contagious and aggressive with an estimated fatality rate to be around 50%. Since 1976, 11 outbreaks of Ebola virus disease have been reported in total, affecting mostly sub-Saharan Africa, while the most recent ongoing outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has more than 3000 reported cases and 72 deaths. Although an effective vaccine against Ebola virus disease has become available, no targeted treatment with proven efficacy upon infection is developed. Herein, we review the epidemiology of Ebola virus and the current situation in terms of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome

Great progress has been made over the past 18 months in scientific understanding of the biology, epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Extraordinary advances have been made in vaccine development and the execution of clinical trials of possible therapies. However, uncertainties remain, and this review assesses these in the context of virus transmission, epidemiology, control by social distancing measures and mass vaccination and the effect on all of these on emerging variants. We briefly review the current state of the global pandemic, focussing on what is, and what is not, well understood about the parameters that control viral transmission and make up the constituent parts of the basic reproductive number R 0. Major areas of uncertainty include factors predisposing to asymptomatic infection, the population fraction that is asymptomatic, the infectiousness of asymptomatic compared to symptomatic individuals, the contribution of viral transmission of such individuals and what variables influence this. The duration of immunity post infection and post vaccination is also currently unknown, as is the phenotypic consequences of continual viral evolution and the emergence of many viral variants not just in one location, but globally, given the high connectivity between populations in the modern world. The pattern of spread of new variants is also examined. We review what can be learnt from contact tracing, household studies and whole-genome sequencing, regarding where people acquire infection, and how households are seeded with infection since they constitute a major location for viral transmission. We conclude by discussing the challenges to attaining herd immunity, given the uncertainty in the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity, the threat of continued evolution of the virus as demonstrated by the emergence and rapid spread of the Delta variant, and the logistics of vaccine manufacturing and delivery to achieve universal coverage worldwide. Significantly more support from higher income countries (HIC) is required in low- and middle-income countries over the coming year to ensure the creation of community-wide protection by mass vaccination is a global target, not one just for HIC. Unvaccinated populations create opportunities for viral evolution since the net rate of evolution is directly proportional to the number of cases occurring per unit of time. The unit for assessing success in achieving herd immunity is not any individual country, but the world.

COVID-19 in WHO African Region: Account and Correlation of Epidemiological Indices with Some Selected Health-related Metrics

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious and pathogenic viral disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, it has spread across the continents. The study is aimed at describing epidemiological indices of COVID-19 as reported by the World Health Organization and to examine correlations with some country specific measures of general health status.

METHODS

Data from the WHO African region were extracted from World Health Organization, Global Health Security Index, Worldometer and World Bank databases, as at September 8, 2020. Other epidemiological indices were computed for the various countries. Epidemiological indices of COVID-19 were correlated with some selected health related metrics: Global Health Security index (GHSI) and current health expenditure (CHE). Pearson correlation was used to access the relationship between the health-related metrics and epidemiological indices.

RESULTS

Forty-seven (47) countries belonging to the WHO African region were evaluated. A total of 1,086,499 confirmed cases and 23,213 deaths were recorded giving a fatality rate of 2.1%. South Africa recorded the highest cumulative confirmed cases as well as deaths (Cases: 639,362; Deaths: 15,004) while Seychelles (Cases:135) and Eritrea/Seychelles (Deaths:0) had the least cumulative cases and deaths (135;0 and 330;0), respectively. South Africa recorded the highest attack rate (1127.67/100,000) while Republic of Tanzania recorded the least attack rate (0.78/100,000). The highest case fatality rate/ratio was observed in Chad (7.60%) while the least value was observed in Seychelles (0.0%). France was the most common country involved in travel history of index cases. Sporadic transmission was recorded in 3 countries, 9 countries had cluster of cases while the rest had community transmission. The first WHO African region country to record COVID-19 case was Algeria, while Comoros was the last. Significant positive correlation was found between COVID-19 case number/deaths and Global Health Security Index.

CONCLUSION

The WHO African region has had its own share of the pandemic with all the countries being affected. The trio of cluster cases, sporadic and community transmission were recorded with majority being community transmission.

One Health Perspectives on New Emerging Viral Diseases in African Wild Great Apes

The most recent emerging infectious diseases originated in animals, mainly in wildlife reservoirs. Mutations and recombination events mediate pathogen jumps between host species. The close phylogenetic relationship between humans and non-human primates allows the transmission of pathogens between these species. These pathogens cause severe impacts on public health and impair the conservation of habituated or non-habituated wild-living apes. Constant exposure of great apes to human actions such as hunting, deforestation, the opening of roads, and tourism, for example, contributes to increased interaction between humans and great apes. In spite of several studies emphasizing the risks of pathogen transmission between animals and humans, outbreaks of the reverse transmission of infectious agents threatening wildlife still occur on the African continent. In this context, measures to prevent the emergence of new diseases and conservation of primate species must be based on the One Health concept; that is, they must also ensure the monitoring of the environment and involve political and social aspects. In this article, we review and discuss the anthropological aspects of the transmission of diseases between people and wild primates and discuss new anthropozoonotic diseases in great apes in Africa from studies published between 2016 and 2020. We conclude that the health of great apes also depends on monitoring the health of human populations that interact with these individuals.

Comparison of Zaire and Bundibugyo Ebolavirus Polymerase Complexes and Susceptibility to Antivirals through a Newly Developed Bundibugyo Minigenome System

Members of the genus Ebolavirus cause lethal disease in humans, with Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) being the most pathogenic (up to 90% morality) and Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) the least pathogenic (∼37% mortality). Historically, there has been a lack of research on BDBV, and there is no means to study BDBV outside of a high-containment laboratory. Here, we describe a minigenome replication system to study BDBV transcription and compare the efficacy of small-molecule inhibitors between EBOV and BDBV. Using this system, we examined the ability of the polymerase complex proteins from EBOV and BDBV to interact and form a functional unit as well as the impact of the genomic untranslated ends, known to contain important signals for transcription (3'-untranslated region) and replication (5'-untranslated region). Various levels of compatibility were observed between proteins of the polymerase complex from each ebolavirus, resulting in differences in genome transcription efficiency. Most pronounced was the effect of the nucleoprotein and the 3'-untranslated region. These data suggest that there are intrinsic specificities in the polymerase complex and untranslated signaling regions that could offer insight regarding observed pathogenic differences. Further adding to the differences in the polymerase complexes, posttransfection/infection treatment with the compound remdesivir (GS-5734) showed a greater inhibitory effect against BDBV than EBOV. The delayed growth kinetics of BDBV and the greater susceptibility to polymerase inhibitors indicate that disruption of the polymerase complex is a viable target for therapeutics. IMPORTANCE Ebolavirus disease is a viral infection and is fatal in 25 to 90% of cases, depending on the viral species and the amount of supportive care available. Two species have caused outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) and Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Pathogenesis and clinical outcome differ between these two species, but there is still limited information regarding the viral mechanism for these differences. Previous studies suggested that BDBV replicates slower than EBOV, but it is unknown if this is due to differences in the polymerase complex and its role in transcription and replication. This study details the construction of a minigenome replication system that can be used in a biosafety level 2 laboratory. This system will be important for studying the polymerase complex of BDBV and comparing it with other filoviruses and can be used as a tool for screening inhibitors of viral growth.

Comparison of machine learning methods for estimating case fatality ratios: An Ebola outbreak simulation study

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are now increasingly used in infectious disease epidemiology. Epidemiologists should understand how ML algorithms behave within the context of outbreak data where missingness of data is almost ubiquitous.

METHODS

Using simulated data, we use a ML algorithmic framework to evaluate data imputation performance and the resulting case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates, focusing on the scale and type of data missingness (i.e., missing completely at random-MCAR, missing at random-MAR, or missing not at random-MNAR).

RESULTS

Across ML methods, dataset sizes and proportions of training data used, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve decreased by 7% (median, range: 1%-16%) when missingness was increased from 10% to 40%. Overall reduction in CFR bias for MAR across methods, proportion of missingness, outbreak size and proportion of training data was 0.5% (median, range: 0%-11%).

CONCLUSION

ML methods could reduce bias and increase the precision in CFR estimates at low levels of missingness. However, no method is robust to high percentages of missingness. Thus, a datacentric approach is recommended in outbreak settings-patient survival outcome data should be prioritised for collection and random-sample follow-ups should be implemented to ascertain missing outcomes.

Transcriptional Analysis of Infection With Early or Late Isolates From the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Epidemic Does Not Suggest Attenuated Pathogenicity as a Result of Genetic Variation

The 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic caused by the EBOV-Makona isolate is the largest and longest recorded to date. It incurred over 28,000 infections and ∼11,000 deaths. Early in this epidemic, several mutations in viral glycoprotein (A82V), nucleoprotein (R111C), and polymerase L (D759G) emerged and stabilized. In vitro studies of these new EBOV-Makona isolates showed enhanced fitness and viral replication capacity. However, in vivo studies in mice and rhesus macaques did not provide any evidence of enhanced viral fitness or shedding. Infection with late isolates carrying or early isolates lacking (early) these mutations resulted in uniformly lethal disease in nonhuman primates (NHPs), albeit with slightly delayed kinetics with late isolates. The recent report of a possible reemergence of EBOV from a persistent infection in a survivor of the epidemic highlights the urgency for understanding the impact of genetic variation on EBOV pathogenesis. However, potential molecular differences in host responses remain unknown. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted the first comparative analysis of the host responses to lethal infection with EBOV-Mayinga and EBOV-Makona isolates using bivariate, longitudinal, regression, and discrimination transcriptomic analyses. Our analysis shows a conserved core of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) involved in antiviral defense, immune cell activation, and inflammatory processes in response to EBOV-Makona and EBOV-Mayinga infections. Additionally, EBOV-Makona and EBOV-Mayinga infections could be discriminated based on the expression pattern of a small subset of genes. Transcriptional responses to EBOV-Makona isolates that emerged later during the epidemic, specifically those from Mali and Liberia, lacked signatures of profound lymphopenia and excessive inflammation seen following infection with EBOV-Mayinga and early EBOV-Makona isolate C07. Overall, these findings provide novel insight into the mechanisms underlying the lower case fatality rate (CFR) observed with EBOV-Makona compared to EBOV-Mayinga.

Therapeutics development for Ebola virus disease: A recent scenario

The Ebola virus disease is a deadly pathogenic disease caused by the Ebola virus. It has been observed that this disease causes a high case-fatality rate. Several species of this virus were detected from the genus Ebola virus. Among them, four species of this virus (Ebola, Taï Forest, Sudan, and Bundibugyo) caused disease in humans. Scientists are now focusing on the various therapeutic developments for the treatment of this disease. This article has attempted to depict the development of the entire therapeutic scenario of this disease. In addition, the article tried to illustrate the developmental strategy of the different therapeutics such as small-molecule inhibitors, small interfering RNAs, antibodies, ion channel inhibitors, interferons, and combination therapy against Ebola virus disease. Presently, two monoclonal antibodies (REGN-EB3 and mAb114) showed better efficacy in the Pamoja tuLinde Maisha trial and received approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration. However, scientists should focus on developing more economic therapeutics.

Intensive Care Unit-Like Care of Nonhuman Primates with Ebola Virus Disease

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) supportive care strategies are largely guided by retrospective observational research. This study investigated the effect of EVD supportive care algorithms on duration of survival in a controlled nonhuman primate (NHP) model.

METHODS

Fourteen rhesus macaques were challenged intramuscularly with a target dose of Ebola virus (1000 plaque-forming units; Kikwit). NHPs were allocated to intensive care unit (ICU)-like algorithms (n = 7), intravenous fluids plus levofloxacin (n = 2), or a control group (n = 5). The primary outcome measure was duration of survival, and secondary outcomes included changes in clinical laboratory values.

RESULTS

Duration of survival was not significantly different between the pooled ICU-like algorithm and control groups (8.2 vs 6.9 days of survival; hazard ratio; 0.50; P = .25). Norepinephrine was effective in transiently maintaining baseline blood pressure. NHPs treated with ICU-like algorithms had delayed onset of liver and kidney injury.

CONCLUSIONS

While an obvious survival difference was not observed with ICU-like care, clinical observations from this model may aid in EVD supportive care NHP model refinement.

Factors associated with length of stay and treatment outcome of Ebola patients treated at an Ebola treatment center in Sierra Leone during the peak period of the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the West Africa Ebola epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in August 2014. During the outbreak period, there were calls for the affected countries to construct Ebola treatment centres and reliable diagnostic laboratories closer to areas of transmission in order to improve the quality care of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) patients. Delay in seeking treatment has been reported to have led to poor treatment outcome of EVD patients. Sierra Leone recorded more than 8000 probable and confirmed cases and more than 4000 EVD -related deaths nation-wide.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we investigated the effects of treatment delay, length of symptomatic period, EVD patients’ sex, age, occupation, region of residence, and clinical characteristics on the treatment outcome of 205 laboratory-confirmed EVD patients who were admitted at the Kenema Government Hospital Ebola Treatment Center (KGHETC) from 13/09/2014–26/11/2014; i.e. during the peak of 2013–2016 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone. Specifically also, we determined the factors that were associated with the length of stay for EVD treatment for patients who were discharged alive.

Results

Majority (66.3%, n = 205/309) of the 309 suspected EVD patients with medical records at the KGHETC triage during the period under review were tested positive for EVD using reverse-transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and had a definitive treatment outcome. Few (33.7%, n = 104/309) suspected EVD patients were not included in our analysis and were classified thus: 29.1% (n = 90/309) suspect EVD cases with negative RT-PCR results, 4.5% (n = 14/309) suspect cases with non-available RT-PCR result.

Of the 205 patients, 99 (48.3%) had a fatal outcome. For EVD patients that survived, we recorded a significant association (− 0.06, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = − 0.14 – - 0.02, p = 0.004) between the Length of Stay (LOS) and for each kilometer travelled to seek treatment at the KGHETC. However, the association between EVD patients that were low skilled workers (− 5.91, 95% CI = − 24.60 – 12.79, p = 0.73), EVD patients who were children and pupils in junior school (− 0.86, 95% CI = − 12.86 – 11.14, p = 0.73), health seeking delay for EVD patients who resided in Kenema District where the KGHETC was located (− 0.49, 95% CI = − 0.12 – 1.09, p = 0.24), sex (− 1.77, 95% CI = − 8.75 – 5.21, p = 0.50), age (0.21, 95% CI = − 0.36 – 0.77, p = 0.57), referral status (1.21, 95% CI = − 17.67 – 20.09, p = 0.89) and the LOS in surviving patients were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

The high LOS for either treatment outcome for EVD patients that resided in the district in which the EVD treatment facility was located compared to those patients from other districts implies that health authorities should consider intensive health education with high priority given to seeking early EVD treatment, and the construction of strategic ETCs as important components in their response strategy.

Protective population behavior change in outbreaks of emerging infectious disease

BACKGROUND

During outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infections, the lack of effective drugs and vaccines increases reliance on non-pharmacologic public health interventions and behavior change to limit human-to-human transmission. Interventions that increase the speed with which infected individuals remove themselves from the susceptible population are paramount, particularly isolation and hospitalization. Ebola virus disease (EVD), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) are zoonotic viruses that have caused significant recent outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission.

METHODS

This investigation quantified changing mean removal rates (MRR) and days from symptom onset to hospitalization (DSOH) of infected individuals from the population in seven different outbreaks of EVD, SARS, and MERS, to test for statistically significant differences in these metrics between outbreaks.

RESULTS

We found that epidemic week and viral serial interval were correlated with the speed with which populations developed and maintained health behaviors in each outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight intrinsic population-level changes in isolation rates in multiple epidemics of three zoonotic infections with established human-to-human transmission and significant morbidity and mortality. These data are particularly useful for disease modelers seeking to forecast the spread of emerging pathogens.

Participation in emergency preparedness and response: a national survey of pharmacists and pharmacist extenders

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the critical role of pharmacists in pandemic response. To enhance pharmacist’s involvement in future emergency situations, there is a critical need to understand pharmacists’ knowledge, willingness and preparedness in response to various emergency situations.

Objective

This study aimed to describe pharmacists and pharmacist extenders on their participation in emergency response activities and training, preparedness and willingness to respond in emergency situations, and knowledge of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and their pharmacy’s emergency preparedness plans.

Methods

A cross-sectional design with an online survey of pharmacist, pharmacy owner, and pharmacy technician members of the National Community Pharmacists Association was employed in the United States in July – August 2020. Descriptive statistics summarized participants’ level of actual participation and their willingness to participate in emergency situations and training and their knowledge of MOU and their pharmacy’s emergency plans. A non-response bias investigation was conducted by comparing the early and late responders.

Results

Of the 6,486 members, 255 completed the questionnaire (RR1 = 4.0%). With the confidence level of 95%, the margin of error was 6%. About 60% were independently owned and in urban areas. More than 80% and 64% of the participants have not volunteered in any emergency or participated in any emergency training program, respectively. Over 60% were very willing to assist with the distribution of medications and vaccine administration. Less than 10% had MOUs with health departments. More than 60% of respondents were not aware of what MOU is.

Conclusion

Despite limited involvement in actual emergency activities and training, pharmacists and pharmacist extenders exhibited a high level of willingness to participate in emergency training and assist in case of emergencies. This study recommends the development of programs aimed at increasing pharmacists’ and pharmacist extenders’ participation in emergency training and in future public health emergencies.

Simultaneous detection of Marburg virus and Ebola virus with TaqMan-based multiplex real-time PCR method

Background

Marburg virus (MARV) and Ebola virus (EBOV) are acute infections with high case fatality rates. It is of great significance for epidemic monitoring and prevention and control of infectious diseases by the development of a rapid, specific, and sensitive quantitative PCR method to detect two pathogens simultaneously.

Methods

Primers and TaqMan probes were designed according to highly conserved sequences of these viruses. Sensitivity, specificity, linear range, limit of detection, and the effects of hemolysis and lipid on real‐time qPCR were evaluated.

Results

The linearity of the curve allowed quantification of nucleic acid concentrations in range from 10³ to 10⁹ copies/ml per reaction (MARV and EBOV). The limit of detection of EBOV was 40 copies/ml, and MARV was 100 copies/ml. It has no cross‐reaction with other pathogens such as hepatitis b virus (HBV), hepatitis c virus (HCV), human papillomavirus (HPV), Epstein‐Barr virus (EBV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Repeatability analysis of the two viruses showed that their coefficient of variation (CV) was less than 5.0%. The above results indicated that fluorescence quantitative PCR could detect EBOV and MARV sensitively and specifically.

Conclusions

The TaqMan probe‐based multiplex fluorescence quantitative PCR assays could detect EBOV and MARV sensitively specifically and simultaneously.

Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread

Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1-4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.

Early control of viral load by favipiravir promotes survival to Ebola virus challenge and prevents cytokine storm in non-human primates

Ebola virus has been responsible for two major epidemics over the last several years and there has been a strong effort to find potential treatments that can improve the disease outcome. Antiviral favipiravir was thus tested on non-human primates infected with Ebola virus. Half of the treated animals survived the Ebola virus challenge, whereas the infection was fully lethal for the untreated ones. Moreover, the treated animals that did not survive died later than the controls. We evaluated the hematological, virological, biochemical, and immunological parameters of the animals and performed proteomic analysis at various timepoints of the disease. The viral load strongly correlated with dysregulation of the biological functions involved in pathogenesis, notably the inflammatory response, hemostatic functions, and response to stress. Thus, the management of viral replication in Ebola virus disease is of crucial importance in preventing the immunopathogenic disorders and septic-like shock syndrome generally observed in Ebola virus-infected patients.

Ebola virus was responsible for several epidemics in the recent years and is now considered as a major public health concern in Central and West African countries. We and others demonstrated that pathogenic events observed during Ebola virus disease are linked to a deleterious immune response. However, the mechanisms implicated are not fully understood. Here, we studied immune responses depending on the viral loads observed in infected cynomolgus monkeys. An antiviral treatment allowed the reduction of viral load in some animals and we observed that these animals did not experience deleterious immune response and the loss of hemostasis. The release of pathogen-associated molecular patterns may thus be limited by the inhibition of viral replication, avoiding the overstimulation of the immune system and consequently the pathogenic events observed in Ebola virus disease.

A Mathematical Model of Contact Tracing during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola Outbreak

The 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a vital role in controlling such outbreaks. Our aim in this work was to mechanistically represent the contact tracing process to illustrate potential areas of improvement in managing contact tracing efforts. We also explored the role contact tracing played in eventually ending the outbreak. We present a system of ordinary differential equations to model contact tracing in Sierra Leonne during the outbreak. Using data on cumulative cases and deaths, we estimate most of the parameters in our model. We include the novel features of counting the total number of people being traced and tying this directly to the number of tracers doing this work. Our work highlights the importance of incorporating changing behavior into one’s model as needed when indicated by the data and reported trends. Our results show that a larger contact tracing program would have reduced the death toll of the outbreak. Counting the total number of people being traced and including changes in behavior in our model led to better understanding of disease management.

Are environmental pollution and biodiversity levels associated to the spread and mortality of COVID-19? A four-month global analysis

On March 12th, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. The collective impact of environmental and ecosystem factors, as well as biodiversity, on the spread of COVID-19 and its mortality evolution remain empirically unknown, particularly in regions with a wide ecosystem range. The aim of our study is to assess how those factors impact on the COVID-19 spread and mortality by country. This study compiled a global database merging WHO daily case reports with other publicly available measures from January 21st to May 18th, 2020. We applied spatio-temporal models to identify the influence of biodiversity, temperature, and precipitation and fitted generalized linear mixed models to identify the effects of environmental variables. Additionally, we used count time series to characterize the association between COVID-19 spread and air quality factors. All analyses were adjusted by social demographic, country-income level, and government policy intervention confounders, among 160 countries, globally. Our results reveal a statistically meaningful association between COVID-19 infection and several factors of interest at country and city levels such as the national biodiversity index, air quality, and pollutants elements (PM10, PM2.5, and O3). Particularly, there is a significant relationship of loss of biodiversity, high level of air pollutants, and diminished air quality with COVID-19 infection spread and mortality. Our findings provide an empirical foundation for future studies on the relationship between air quality variables, a country's biodiversity, and COVID-19 transmission and mortality. The relationships measured in this study can be valuable when governments plan environmental and health policies, as alternative strategy to respond to new COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent future crises.

The electrochemical detection of bioterrorism agents: a review of the detection, diagnostics, and implementation of sensors in biosafety programs for Class A bioweapons

During the past year, disease has shown us the iron grip it can hold over a population of people. Health systems can be overwhelmed, economies can be brought into recession, and many people can be harmed or killed. When weaponized, diseases can be manipulated to create a detriment to health while becoming an economic burden on any society. It is consequently prudent that easy detection of bioweapons is available to governments for protecting their people. Electrochemical sensing displays many distinct advantages, such as its low limit of detection, low cost to run, rapid generation of results, and in many instances portability. We therefore present a wide array of electrochemical sensing platforms currently being fabricated, a brief summary of Class A bioweapons, and the potential future of bioweapon detection and biosafety.

Partnership for Research on Ebola VACcination (PREVAC): protocol of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 clinical trial evaluating three vaccine strategies against Ebola in healthy volunteers in four West African countries

Introduction

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in 2014–2016 in West Africa was the largest on record and provided an opportunity for large clinical trials and accelerated efforts to develop an effective and safe preventative vaccine. Multiple questions regarding the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of EVD vaccines remain unanswered. To address these gaps in the evidence base, the Partnership for Research on Ebola Vaccines (PREVAC) trial was designed. This paper describes the design, methods, and baseline results of the PREVAC trial and discusses challenges that led to different protocol amendments.

Methods

This is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2 clinical trial of three vaccine strategies against the Ebola virus in healthy volunteers 1 year of age and above. The three vaccine strategies being studied are the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine, with and without a booster dose at 56 days, and the Ad26.ZEBOV,MVA-FN-Filo vaccine regimen with Ad26.ZEBOV given as the first dose and the MVA-FN-Filo vaccination given 56 days later. There have been 4 versions of the protocol with those enrolled in Version 4.0 comprising the primary analysis cohort. The primary endpoint is based on the antibody titer against the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein measured 12 months following the final injection.

Results

From April 2017 to December 2018, a total of 5002 volunteers were screened and 4789 enrolled. Participants were enrolled at 6 sites in four countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Mali). Of the 4789 participants, 2560 (53%) were adults and 2229 (47%) were children. Those < 18 years of age included 549 (12%) aged 1 to 4 years, 750 (16%) 5 to 11 years, and 930 (19%) aged 12–17 years. At baseline, the median (25th, 75th percentile) antibody titer to Ebola virus glycoprotein for 1090 participants was 72 (50, 116) EU/mL.

Discussion

The PREVAC trial is evaluating—placebo-controlled—two promising Ebola candidate vaccines in advanced stages of development. The results will address unanswered questions related to short- and long-term safety and immunogenicity for three vaccine strategies in adults and children.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02876328. Registered on 23 August 2016.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05035-9.

Ebola: A review and focus on neurologic manifestations

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) is a severe, highly contagious, and often fatal systemic disease in human and non-human primates. Zoonotic and human-to-human transmission have been well documented. Ebolaviruses are endemic to Equatorial and West Africa and there have been over 20 outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa since 1976. The largest known outbreak of EVD occurred between 2013 and 2016 across several West African countries. It resulted in 28,646 suspected and confirmed cases and 11,323 deaths. There are 5 species within the genus Ebolavirus with 4 of them being clinically significant. In patients with EVD, neurologic manifestations range from mild symptoms such as confusion to severe neurologic diseases such as meningitis and encephalitis. Altered mental status, from mild confusion to delirium with hallucinations, may also occur. Rare neuropsychiatric manifestations of EVD include psychological or cognitive symptoms, including short-term memory loss, insomnia, and depression or anxiety. Although Ebolavirus RNA has been detected in cerebrospinal fluid, the body of knowledge around the pathogenic mechanisms of neurological disease is not yet fully understood. Studies are needed to understand the acute and chronic neuronal pathologic as well as biochemical cerebrospinal fluid changes in Ebolavirus infection.

Re-analysing Ebola spread in Sierra Leone: The importance of local social dynamics

BACKGROUND

The 2013-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa was the largest so far recorded, and mainly affected three adjacent countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The worst affected country (in terms of confirmed cases) was Sierra Leone. The present paper looks at the epidemic in Sierra Leone. The epidemic in this country was a concatenation of local outbreaks. These local outbreaks are not well characterized through analysis using standard numerical techniques. In part, this reflects difficulties in record collection at the height of the epidemic. This paper offers a different approach, based on application of field-based techniques of social investigation that provide a richer understanding of the epidemic.

METHODS

In a post-epidemic study (2016-18) of two districts (Bo and Moyamba) we use ethnographic data to reconstruct local infection pathways from evidence provided by affected communities, cross-referenced to records of the epidemic retained by the National Ebola Response Commission, now lodged in the Ebola Museum and Archive at Njala University. Our study documents and discusses local social and contextual factors largely missing from previously published studies.

RESULTS

Our major finding is that the epidemic in Sierra Leone was a series of local outbreaks, some of which were better contained than others. In those that were not well contained, a number of contingent factors helps explain loss of control. Several numerical studies have drawn attention to the importance of local heterogeneities in the Sierra Leone Ebola epidemic. Our qualitative study throws specific light on a number of elements that explain these heterogeneities: the role of externalities, health system deficiencies, cultural considerations and local coping capacities.

CONCLUSIONS

Social issues and local contingencies explain the spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone and are key to understanding heterogeneities in epidemiological data. Integrating ethnographic research into epidemic-response is critical to properly understand the patterns of spread and the opportunities to intervene. This conclusion has significant implications for future interdisciplinary research and interpretation of standard numerical data, and consequently for control of epidemic outbreaks.

Microfluidic devices for the detection of viruses: aspects of emergency fabrication during the COVID-19 pandemic and other outbreaks

Extensive testing of populations against COVID-19 has been suggested as a game-changer quest to control the spread of this contagious disease and to avoid further disruption in our social, healthcare and economical systems. Nonetheless, testing millions of people for a new virus brings about quite a few challenges. The development of effective tests for the new coronavirus has become a worldwide task that relies on recent discoveries and lessons learned from past outbreaks. In this work, we review the most recent publications on microfluidics devices for the detection of viruses. The topics of discussion include different detection approaches, methods of signalling and fabrication techniques. Besides the miniaturization of traditional benchtop detection assays, approaches such as electrochemical analyses, field-effect transistors and resistive pulse sensors are considered. For emergency fabrication of quick test kits, the local capabilities must be evaluated, and the joint work of universities, industries, and governments seems to be an unequivocal necessity.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

First Prototype of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Software for Prompt Identification of Infectious Diseases

The rapid detection of ongoing outbreak – and the identification of causative pathogen – is pivotal for the early recognition of public health threats. The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are linked to several determinants, both human factors – such as population density, travel, and trade – and ecological factors – like climate change and agricultural practices. Several technologies are available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens [e.g. real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)], and together with on line monitoring tools of infectious disease activity and behaviour, they contribute to the surveillance system for infectious diseases. Web-based surveillance tools, infectious diseases modelling and epidemic intelligence methods represent crucial components for timely outbreak detection and rapid risk assessment. The study aims to integrate the current prevention and control system with a prediction tool for infectious diseases, based on regression analysis, to support decision makers, health care workers, and first responders to quickly and properly recognise an outbreak. This study has the intention to develop an infectious disease regressive prediction tool working with an off-line database built with specific epidemiological parameters of a set of infectious diseases of high consequences. The tool has been developed as a first prototype of a software solution called Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) and it had been established in two main steps, the database building stage and the software implementation stage (MATLAB^® environment). The IDS has been tested with the epidemiological data of three outbreaks occurred recently: severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in China (2002–2003), plague outbreak in Madagascar (2017) and the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2018). The outcomes are promising and they reveal that the software has been able to recognize and characterize these outbreaks. The future perspective about this software regards the developing of that tool as a useful and user-friendly predictive tool appropriate for first responders, health care workers, and public health decision makers to help them in predicting, assessing and contrasting outbreaks.

Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment

Various environmental factors influence the outbreak and spread of epidemic or even pandemic events which, in turn, may cause feedbacks on the environment. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic on 13 March 2020 and its rapid onset, spatial extent and complex consequences make it a once-in-a-century global disaster. Most countries responded by social distancing measures and severely diminished economic and other activities. Consequently, by the end of April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous environmental impacts, both positive such as enhanced air and water quality in urban areas, and negative, such as shoreline pollution due to the disposal of sanitary consumables. This study presents an early overview of the observed and potential impacts of the COVID-19 on the environment. We argue that the effects of COVID-19 are determined mainly by anthropogenic factors which are becoming obvious as human activity diminishes across the planet, and the impacts on cities and public health will be continued in the coming years.

Case Fatality Ratio Estimates for the 2013-2016 West African Ebola Epidemic: Application of Boosted Regression Trees for Imputation

BACKGROUND

The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic has been the largest to date with >11 000 deaths in the affected countries. The data collected have provided more insight into the case fatality ratio (CFR) and how it varies with age and other characteristics. However, the accuracy and precision of the naive CFR remain limited because 44% of survival outcomes were unreported.

METHODS

Using a boosted regression tree model, we imputed survival outcomes (ie, survival or death) when unreported, corrected for model imperfection to estimate the CFR without imputation, with imputation, and adjusted with imputation. The method allowed us to further identify and explore relevant clinical and demographic predictors of the CFR.

RESULTS

The out-of-sample performance (95% confidence interval [CI]) of our model was good: sensitivity, 69.7% (52.5-75.6%); specificity, 69.8% (54.1-75.6%); percentage correctly classified, 69.9% (53.7-75.5%); and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 76.0% (56.8-82.1%). The adjusted CFR estimates (95% CI) for the 2013-2016 West African epidemic were 82.8% (45.6-85.6%) overall and 89.1% (40.8-91.6%), 65.6% (61.3-69.6%), and 79.2% (45.4-84.1%) for Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia, respectively. We found that district, hospitalisation status, age, case classification, and quarter (date of case reporting aggregated at three-month intervals) explained 93.6% of the variance in the naive CFR.

CONCLUSIONS

The adjusted CFR estimates improved the naive CFR estimates obtained without imputation and were more representative. Used in conjunction with other resources, adjusted estimates will inform public health contingency planning for future Ebola epidemics, and help better allocate resources and evaluate the effectiveness of future inventions.

An analysis of International Health Regulations Emergency Committees and Public Health Emergency of International Concern Designations

INTRODUCTION

Nine events have been assessed for potential declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is defined as an extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other states through international spread and requires a coordinated international response. The WHO Director-General convenes Emergency Committees (ECs) to provide their advice on whether an event constitutes a PHEIC. The EC rationales have been criticised for being non-transparent and contradictory to the International Health Regulations (IHR). This first comprehensive analysis of EC rationale provides recommendations to increase clarity of EC decisions which will strengthen the IHR and WHO's legitimacy in future outbreaks.

METHODS

66 EC statements were reviewed from nine public health outbreaks of influenza A, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, polio, Ebola virus disease, Zika, yellow fever and coronavirus disease-2019. Statements were analysed to determine which of the three IHR criteria were noted as contributing towards the EC's justification on whether to declare a PHEIC and what language was used to explain the decision.

RESULTS

Interpretation of the criteria were often vague and applied inconsistently. ECs often failed to describe and justify which criteria had been satisfied.

DISCUSSION

Guidelines must be developed for the standardised interpretation of IHR core criteria. The ECs must clearly identify and justify which criteria have contributed to their rationale for or against PHEIC declaration.

CONCLUSION

Striving for more consistency and transparency in EC justifications would benefit future deliberations and provide more understanding and support for the process.

The human genetic determinism of life-threatening infectious diseases: genetic heterogeneity and physiological homogeneity?

Multicellular eukaryotes emerged late in evolution from an ocean of viruses, bacteria, archaea, and unicellular eukaryotes. These macroorganisms are exposed to and infected by a tremendous diversity of microorganisms. Those that are large enough can even be infected by multicellular fungi and parasites. Each interaction is unique, if only because it operates between two unique living organisms, in an infinite diversity of circumstances. This is neatly illustrated by the extraordinarily high level of interindividual clinical variability in human infections, even for a given pathogen, ranging from a total absence of clinical manifestations to death. We discuss here the idea that the determinism of human life-threatening infectious diseases can be governed by single-gene inborn errors of immunity, which are rarely Mendelian and frequently display incomplete penetrance. We briefly review the evidence in support of this notion obtained over the last two decades, referring to a number of focused and thorough reviews published by eminent colleagues in this issue of Human Genetics. It seems that almost any life-threatening infectious disease can be driven by at least one, and, perhaps, a great many diverse monogenic inborn errors, which may nonetheless be immunologically related. While the proportions of monogenic cases remain unknown, a picture in which genetic heterogeneity is combined with physiological homogeneity is emerging from these studies. A preliminary sketch of the human genetic architecture of severe infectious diseases is perhaps in sight.

Providing healthcare to Ebola survivors: A qualitative exploratory investigation of healthcare providers' views and experiences in Sierra Leone

Although the experiences of healthcare workers regarding caring for Ebola patients during the West African Ebola outbreak have been explored, little is known about healthcare workers' experiences in providing care to Ebola survivors. We employed a qualitative design to address this gap in the literature. Healthcare providers described the health complaints of Ebola survivors as similar to those of ordinary patients, but disproportionately frequent and severe. During the Ebola outbreak, fear of infection with the Ebola virus affected healthcare providers' confidence to provide care to survivors leading to the provision of symptomatic or no treatment. At the close of the Ebola outbreak, healthcare providers cited previous experience in providing care to Ebola patients, being more knowledgeable, peer support, commitment to professional duty and the implementation of the CPES programme as motivators that helped boost their confidence to providing care. However, healthcare providers described the unavailability of medicines, the inability to undertake laboratory investigations, the lack of access to specialised care and uncoordinated referrals from peripheral health units as their current challenges to providing care. Such enablers and barriers need to be prioritised within the Sierra Leone health system to further strengthen initiatives aimed at improving healthcare delivery to Ebola survivors.

Pregnancy and breastfeeding in the context of Ebola: a systematic review

The outbreaks of Ebola virus between 2014 and 2020 have drawn attention to knowledge gaps related to Ebola virus disease in pregnant women. The aim of this study was to systematically evaluate available data on pregnant and lactating women with acute Ebola virus disease or following recovery. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), Web of Science Core Collection, CINAHL, POPLINE, Global Health, and WHO Global Index Medicus, in addition to grey literature, for relevant articles. Studies of all types and published between database inception and Aug 19, 2019, were eligible (PROSPERO 129335). We identified 1060 records, of which 52 studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, mortality in 274 pregnant women with Ebola virus disease was 72% (197 women died); mortality for pregnant women with Ebola virus disease were not higher than those in the general population of patients with Ebola virus disease. Nearly all women with Ebola virus disease had adverse pregnancy outcomes. Among survivors, Ebola virus RNA was detected by RT-PCR in amniotic fluid up to 32 days after maternal clearance of Ebola virus from the blood and in breastmilk 26 days after symptom onset. A risk of transmission of Ebola virus from pregnancy-related fluids and breastmilk probably exists, and precautions should be taken.

Epidemics, Xenophobia and Narratives of Propitiousness

The heightening of exclusionary practices targeting migrants during epidemics often creates dilemmas for perpetrators whose resolution undermines the foundational structures of xenophobic narratives. For many perpetrators of xenophobic acts, epidemics amplify dilemmas rooted in the chasm between neat dichotomizing exclusionary tropes and messy social realities. Escape efforts involving fabricating categories of special migrants that can be spared maltreatment undermine the homogenization and ossification of communities, and the elision of inter-communal links that are fundament to xenophobic discourses. Exclusionary practices targeting Peul migrants from Guinea in Senegal during the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic constitutes the arena for this study.

Sociodemographic and clinical determinants of in-facility case fatality rate for 938 adult Ebola patients treated at Sierra Leone Ebola treatment center

Background

The 2013–2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak recorded the highest incidence and mortality since the discovery of the virus in Zaire in 1976; with more than 28,000 probable and confirmed EVD cases and 11,000 deaths. Studies relating to previous outbreaks usually involved small sample sizes. In this study we are set to identify those sociodemographic and clinical features that predict in-facility mortality among EVD patients using a large sample size.

Methods

We analysed the anonymized medical records of 938 laboratory-confirmed EVD patients 15 years old and above who received treatment at The 34 Military Hospital and The Police Training School EVD Treatment Centers in Sierra Leone in the period June 2014 to April 2015. We used both univariable and multivariable logistic regression to determine the predictors for in-facility mortality of these patients based on their sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

Results

The median age of the EVD cases was 33 years (interquartile range = 25 to 40 years). The majority of the EVD cases were male (59.0%) and had secondary level education (79.3%). We reported a low overall in-facility case fatality rate of 26.4%. The associations between case fatality rates and EVD patients who reported fever, abdominal pain, cough, diarrhoea, vomiting, fatigue, haemorrhage, dysphagia, conjunctival injection, dyspnea, and skin rash at the time of admission were all statistically significant (p <  0.05). Our preferred model with the age group 65 years and above alongside the following clinical symptoms; diarrhoea, vomiting, fatigue, dysphagia, conjunctival injection, dyspnea and cough produced a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.93.

Conclusions

We constructed a simple model that can be optimally used alongside other rapid EVD diagnostic tools to identify EVD in-facility treatment mortality predictors based on the sociodemographic characteristics and clinical symptoms of adult EVD patients. We also reported low EVD cases among patients with secondary and tertiary education. These subpopulations of our patients who are generally informed about the signs and symptoms of EVD, alongside our treatment regimen may have been responsible for our comparatively lower case fatality rate.

Spatiotemporal variability in case fatality ratios for the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

BACKGROUND

For the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, the largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic to date, we aim to analyse the patient mix in detail to characterise key sources of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the case fatality ratios (CFR).

METHODS

We applied a non-parametric Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) imputation approach for patients with missing survival outcomes and adjusted for model imperfection. Semivariogram analysis and kriging were used to investigate spatiotemporal heterogeneities.

RESULTS

CFR estimates varied significantly between districts and over time over the course of the epidemic. BRT modelling accounted for most of the spatiotemporal variation and interactions in CFR, but moderate spatial autocorrelation remained for distances up to approximately 90 km. Combining district-level CFR estimates and kriged district-level residuals provided the best linear unbiased predicted map of CFR accounting for the both explained and unexplained spatial variation. Temporal autocorrelation was not observed in the district-level residuals from the BRT estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides new insight into the epidemiology of the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic with a view of informing future public health contingency planning, resource allocation and impact assessment. The analytical framework developed in this analysis, coupled with key domain knowledge, could be deployed in real time to support the response to ongoing and future outbreaks.

Impact of Intravenous Fluid Therapy on Survival Among Patients With Ebola Virus Disease: An International Multisite Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Intravenous fluid (IVF) is a frequently recommended intervention in Ebola virus disease (EVD), yet its impact on patient outcomes remains unclear.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study evaluated patients with EVD admitted to 5 Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in West Africa. The primary outcome was the difference in 28-day survival between cases treated and not treated with IVF. To control for demographic and clinical factors related to both IVF exposure and survival, cases were compared using propensity score matching. To control for time-varying patient and treatment factors over the course of ETU care, a marginal structural proportional hazards model (MSPHM) with inverse probability weighting was used to assess for 28-day survival differences.

RESULTS

Among 424 EVD-positive cases with data for analysis, 354 (83.5%) were treated with IVF at some point during their ETU admission. Overall, 146 (41.3%) cases treated with IVF survived, whereas 31 (44.9%) cases not treated with any IVF survived (P = .583). Matched propensity score analysis found no significant difference in 28-day survival between cases treated and not treated with IVF during their first 24 and 48 hours of care. Adjusted MSPHM survival analyses also found no significant difference in 28-day survival for cases treated with IVF (27.3%) compared to those not treated with IVF (26.9%) during their entire ETU admission (P = .893).

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for patient- and treatment-specific time-varying factors, there was no significant difference in survival among patients with EVD treated with IVF as compared to those not treated with IVF.

Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies

When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks, one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, the basic reproduction number R₀, the case fatality rate and distributions of serial intervals, generation times, latency and incubation times and times between onset of symptoms, notification, death and recovery/discharge. These parameters form the basis for predicting a future outbreak, planning preventive measures and monitoring the progress of the disease outbreak. We study inference problems during the emerging phase of an outbreak, and point out potential sources of bias, with emphasis on: contact tracing backwards in time, replacing generation times by serial intervals, multiple potential infectors and censoring effects amplified by exponential growth. These biases directly affect the estimation of, for example, the generation time distribution and the case fatality rate, but can then propagate to other estimates such as R₀ and growth rate. We propose methods to remove or at least reduce bias using statistical modelling. We illustrate the theory by numerical examples and simulations.

Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.