Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover

Quantifying the risk of spillover reduction programs for human health

Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases sufficiently rapidly with age. If, however, immunity wanes over time and reinfection is possible, our results reveal that negative health impacts of spillover reduction become substantially less likely. When our model is parameterized using published data on Lassa virus in West Africa, it predicts that negative health outcomes are possible, but likely to be restricted to a small subset of populations where spillover is unusually intense. Together, our results suggest that adverse consequences of spillover reduction programs are unlikely but that the public health gains observed immediately after spillover reduction may fade over time as the age structure of immunity gradually re-equilibrates to a reduced force of infection.

Avoiding novel, unwanted interactions among species to decrease risk of zoonoses

Circumstances that precipitate interactions among species that have never interacted during their evolutionary histories create ideal conditions for the generation of zoonoses. Zoonotic diseases have caused some of the most devastating epidemics in human history. Contact among species that come from different ecosystems or regions creates the risk of zoonoses. In certain situations, humans are generating and promoting conditions that contribute to the creation of infectious diseases and zoonoses. These conditions lead to interactions between wildlife species that have hitherto not interacted under normal circumstances. I call for recognition of the zoonotic potential that novel and unwanted interactions have; identification of these new interactions that are occurring among wild animals, domestic animals, and humans; and efforts to stop these kinds of interactions because they can give rise to zoonotic outbreaks. Live animal markets, the exotic pet trade, illegal wildlife trade, human use and consumption of wild animals, invasive non-native species, releasing of exotic pets, and human encroachment in natural areas are among the activities that cause the most interactions among wild species, domestic species, and humans. These activities should not occur and must be controlled efficiently to prevent future epidemic zoonoses. Society must develop a keen ability to identify these unnatural interactions and prevent them. Controlling these interactions and efficiently addressing their causal factors will benefit human health and, in some cases, lead to positive environmental, ethical, and socioeconomic outcomes. Until these actions are taken, humanity will face future zoonoses and zoonotic pandemic.

Steps towards operationalizing One Health approaches

One Health recognizes the health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment are interrelated. The concept has been embraced by international health and environmental authorities such as WHO, WOAH, FAO, and UNEP, but One Health approaches have been more practiced by researchers than national or international authorities. To identify priorities for operationalizing One Health beyond research contexts, we conducted 41 semi-structured interviews with professionals across One Health sectors (public health, environment, agriculture, wildlife) and institutional contexts, who focus on national-scale and international applications. We identify important challenges, solutions, and priorities for delivering the One Health agenda through government action. Participants said One Health has made progress with motivating stakeholders to attempt One Health approaches, but achieving implementation needs more guidance (action plans for how to leverage or change current government infrastructure to accommodate cross-sector policy and strategic mission planning) and facilitation (behavioral change, dedicated personnel, new training model).

Land system governance shapes tick-related public and animal health risks

Land cover and land use have established effects on hazard and exposure to vector-borne diseases. While our understanding of the proximate and distant causes and consequences of land use decisions has evolved, the focus on the proximate effects of landscape on disease ecology remains dominant. We argue that land use governance, viewed through a land system lens, affects tick-borne disease risk. Governance affects land use trajectories and potentially shapes landscapes favourable to ticks or increases contact with ticks by structuring human-land interactions. We illustrate the role of land use legacies, trade-offs in land-use decisions, and social inequities in access to land resources, information and decision-making, with three cases: Kyasanur Forest disease in India, Lyme disease in the Outer Hebrides (Scotland), and tick acaricide resistance in cattle in Ecuador. Land use governance is key to managing the risk of tick-borne diseases, by affecting the hazard and exposure. We propose that land use governance should consider unintended consequences on infectious disease risk.

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens

Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

Wildlife vaccination strategies for eliminating bovine tuberculosis in white-tailed deer populations

Many pathogens of humans and livestock also infect wildlife that can act as a reservoir and challenge disease control or elimination. Efficient and effective prioritization of research and management actions requires an understanding of the potential for new tools to improve elimination probability with feasible deployment strategies that can be implemented at scale. Wildlife vaccination is gaining interest as a tool for managing several wildlife diseases. To evaluate the effect of vaccinating white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in combination with harvest, in reducing and eliminating bovine tuberculosis from deer populations in Michigan, we developed a mechanistic age-structured disease transmission model for bovine tuberculosis with integrated disease management. We evaluated the impact of pulse vaccination across a range of vaccine properties. Pulse vaccination was effective for reducing disease prevalence rapidly with even low (30%) to moderate (60%) vaccine coverage of the susceptible and exposed deer population and was further improved when combined with increased harvest. The impact of increased harvest depended on the relative strength of transmission modes, i.e., direct vs indirect transmission. Vaccine coverage and efficacy were the most important vaccine properties for reducing and eliminating disease from the local population. By fitting the model to the core endemic area of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan, USA, we identified feasible integrated management strategies involving vaccination and increased harvest that reduced disease prevalence in free-ranging deer. Few scenarios led to disease elimination due to the chronic nature of bovine tuberculosis. A long-term commitment to regular vaccination campaigns, and further research on increasing vaccines efficacy and uptake rate in free-ranging deer are important for disease management.

Simian malaria: a narrative review on emergence, epidemiology and threat to global malaria elimination

Simian malaria from wild non-human primate populations is increasingly recognised as a public health threat and is now the main cause of human malaria in Malaysia and some regions of Brazil. In 2022, Malaysia became the first country not to achieve malaria elimination due to zoonotic simian malaria. We review the global distribution and drivers of simian malaria and identify priorities for diagnosis, treatment, surveillance, and control. Environmental change is driving closer interactions between humans and wildlife, with malaria parasites from non-human primates spilling over into human populations and human malaria parasites spilling back into wild non-human primate populations. These complex transmission cycles require new molecular and epidemiological approaches to track parasite spread. Current methods of malaria control are ineffective, with wildlife reservoirs and primarily outdoor-biting mosquito vectors urgently requiring the development of novel control strategies. Without these, simian malaria has the potential to undermine malaria elimination globally.

How significant are bats as potential carriers of zoonotic Cryptosporidium and Giardia?

Bats are known to harbour various pathogens and are increasingly recognised as potential reservoirs for zoonotic diseases. This paper reviews the genetic diversity and zoonotic potential of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in bats. The risk of zoonotic transmission of Cryptosporidium from bats to humans appears low, with bat-specific Cryptosporidium genotypes accounting for 91.5% of Cryptosporidium-positive samples genotyped from bats worldwide, and C. parvum and C. hominis accounting for 3.4% each of typed positives, respectively. To date, there have only been sporadic detections of Giardia in bats, with no genetic characterisation of the parasite to species or assemblage level. Therefore, the role bats play as reservoirs of zoonotic Giardia spp. is unknown. To mitigate potential risks of zoonotic transmission and their public health implications, comprehensive research on Cryptosporidium and Giardia in bats is imperative. Future studies should encompass additional locations across the globe and a broader spectrum of bat species, with a focus on those adapted to urban environments.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

BACKGROUND

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS

In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway.

RESULTS

Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area.

CONCLUSION

This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.

Risk of African swine fever virus transmission among wild boar and domestic pigs in Poland

Introduction

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease of swine that impacts global pork trade and food security. In several countries across the globe, the disease persists in wild boar (WB) populations sympatric to domestic pig (DP) operations, with continued detections in both sectors. While there is evidence of spillover and spillback between the sectors, the frequency of occurrence and relative importance of different risk factors for transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface remain unclear.

Methods

To address this gap, we leveraged ASF surveillance data from WB and DP across Eastern Poland from 2014-2019 in an analysis that quantified the relative importance of different risk factors for explaining variation in each of the ASF surveillance data from WB and DP.

Results

ASF prevalence exhibited different seasonal trends across the sectors: apparent prevalence was much higher in summer (84% of detections) in DP, but more consistent throughout the year in WB (highest in winter with 45%, lowest in summer at 15%). Only 21.8% of DP-positive surveillance data included surveillance in WB nearby (within 5 km of the grid cell within the last 4 weeks), while 41.9% of WB-positive surveillance samples included any DP surveillance samples nearby. Thus, the surveillance design afforded twice as much opportunity to find DP-positive samples in the recent vicinity of WB-positive samples compared to the opposite, yet the rate of positive WB samples in the recent vicinity of a positive DP sample was 48 times as likely than the rate of positive DP samples in the recent vicinity of a positive WB sample. Our machine learning analyses found that positive samples in WB were predicted by WB-related risk factors, but not to DP-related risk factors. In contrast, WB risk factors were important for predicting detections in DP on a few spatial and temporal scales of data aggregation.

Discussion

Our results highlight that spillover from WB to DP might be more frequent than the reverse, but that the structure of current surveillance systems challenge quantification of spillover frequency and risk factors. Our results emphasize the importance of, and provide guidance for, improving cross-sector surveillance designs.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.

'It doesn't happen how you think, it is very complex!' Reconciling stakeholder priorities, evidence, and processes for zoonoses prioritisation in India

Background

Why do some zoonotic diseases receive priority from health policy decision-makers and planners whereas others receive little attention? By leveraging Shiffman and Smith's political prioritisation framework, our paper advances a political economy of disease prioritisation focusing on four key components: the strength of the actors involved in the prioritisation, the power of the ideas they use to portray the issue, the political contexts in which they operate, and the characteristics of the issue itself (e.g., overall burdens, severity, cost-effective interventions). These components afford a nuanced characterisation of how zoonotic diseases are prioritised for intervention and highlight the associated knowledge gaps affecting prioritisation outcomes. We apply this framework to the case of zoonoses management in India, specifically to identify the factors that shape disease prioritisation decision-making and outcomes.

Methods

We conducted 26 semi-structured interviews with national, state and district level health policymakers, disease managers and technical experts involved in disease surveillance and control in India.

Results

Our results show pluralistic interpretation of risks, exemplified by a disconnect between state and district level actors on priority diseases. The main factors identified as shaping prioritisation outcomes were related to the nature of the zoonoses problem (the complexity of the zoonotic disease, insufficient awareness and lack of evidence on disease burdens and impacts) as well as political, social, cultural and institutional environments (isolated departmental priorities, limited institutional authority, opaque funding mechanisms), and challenges in organisation leadership for cross-sectoral engagement.

Conclusion

The findings highlight a compartmentalised regulatory system for zoonoses where political, social, cultural, and media factors can influence disease management and prioritisation. A major policy window is the institutionalisation of One Health to increase the political priority for strengthening cross-sectoral engagement to address several challenges, including the creation of effective institutions to reconcile stakeholder priorities and prioritisation processes.

Phylogenetic and biogeographical traits predict unrecognized hosts of zoonotic leishmaniasis

The spatio-temporal distribution of leishmaniasis, a parasitic vector-borne zoonotic disease, is significantly impacted by land-use change and climate warming in the Americas. However, predicting and containing outbreaks is challenging as the zoonotic Leishmania system is highly complex: leishmaniasis (visceral, cutaneous and muco-cutaneous) in humans is caused by up to 14 different Leishmania species, and the parasite is transmitted by dozens of sandfly species and is known to infect almost twice as many wildlife species. Despite the already broad known host range, new hosts are discovered almost annually and Leishmania transmission to humans occurs in absence of a known host. As such, the full range of Leishmania hosts is undetermined, inhibiting the use of ecological interventions to limit pathogen spread and the ability to accurately predict the impact of global change on disease risk. Here, we employed a machine learning approach to generate trait profiles of known zoonotic Leishmania wildlife hosts (mammals that are naturally exposed and susceptible to infection) and used trait-profiles of known hosts to identify potentially unrecognized hosts. We found that biogeography, phylogenetic distance, and study effort best predicted Leishmania host status. Traits associated with global change, such as agricultural land-cover, urban land-cover, and climate, were among the top predictors of host status. Most notably, our analysis suggested that zoonotic Leishmania hosts are significantly undersampled, as our model predicted just as many unrecognized hosts as unknown hosts. Overall, our analysis facilitates targeted surveillance strategies and improved understanding of the impact of environmental change on local transmission cycles.

Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. Neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD), in multiple habitat types. The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types but currently more research is needed to evaluate this relationship. In light of these results, we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that could inform effective interventions and control measures.

Substantial viral and bacterial diversity at the bat-tick interface

Ticks harbour a high diversity of viruses, bacteria and protozoa. The soft tick Carios vespertilionis (Argasidae) is a common ectoparasite of bats in the Palearctic region and is suspected to be vector and reservoir of viruses and other microbial species in bat populations, some of which may act as zoonotic agents for human disease. The Soprano pipistrelle (Pipistrellus pygmaeus, Vespertilionidae) is widely distributed in Europe, where it can be found inside or close to human habitation. We used meta-transcriptomic sequencing to determine the RNA virome and common microbiota in blood-fed C. vespertilionis ticks collected from a Soprano pipistrelle bat roosting site in south-central Sweden. Our analyses identified 16 viruses from 11 virus families, of which 15 viruses were novel. For the first time in Sweden we identified Issuk-Kul virus, a zoonotic arthropod-borne virus previously associated with outbreaks of acute febrile illness in humans. Probable bat-associated and tick-borne viruses were classified within the families Nairoviridae, Caliciviridae and Hepeviridae, while other invertebrate-associated viruses included members of the Dicistroviridae, Iflaviridae, Nodaviridae, Partitiviridae, Permutotetraviridae, Polycipiviridae and Solemoviridae. Similarly, we found abundant bacteria in C. vespertilionis, including genera with known tick-borne bacteria, such as Coxiella spp. and Rickettsia spp. These findings demonstrate the remarkable diversity of RNA viruses and bacteria present in C. vespertilionis and highlight the importance of bat-associated ectoparasite surveillance as an effective and non-invasive means to track viruses and bacteria circulating in bats and ticks.

Identifying the genetic basis of viral spillover using Lassa virus as a test case

The rate at which zoonotic viruses spill over into the human population varies significantly over space and time. Remarkably, we do not yet know how much of this variation is attributable to genetic variation within viral populations. This gap in understanding arises because we lack methods of genetic analysis that can be easily applied to zoonotic viruses, where the number of available viral sequences is often limited, and opportunistic sampling introduces significant population stratification. Here, we explore the feasibility of using patterns of shared ancestry to correct for population stratification, enabling genome-wide association methods to identify genetic substitutions associated with spillover into the human population. Using a combination of phylogenetically structured simulations and Lassa virus sequences collected from humans and rodents in Sierra Leone, we demonstrate that existing methods do not fully correct for stratification, leading to elevated error rates. We also demonstrate, however, that the Type I error rate can be substantially reduced by confining the analysis to a less-stratified region of the phylogeny, even in an already-small dataset. Using this method, we detect two candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with spillover in the Lassa virus polymerase gene and provide generalized recommendations for the collection and analysis of zoonotic viruses.

The role of social vulnerability in improving interventions for neglected zoonotic diseases: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

Forest-based communities manage many risks to health and socio-economic welfare including the increasing threat of emerging zoonoses that are expected to disproportionately affect poor and marginalised groups, and further impair their precarious livelihoods, particularly in Low-and-Middle Income (LMIC) settings. Yet, there is a relative dearth of empirical research on the vulnerability and adaptation pathways of poor and marginalised groups facing emerging zoonoses. Drawing on a survey of 229 households and a series of key-informant interviews in the Western Ghats, we examine the factors affecting vulnerability of smallholder and tribal households to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), an often-fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in south India. Specifically, we investigate how different socio-demographic and institutional factors interact to shape KFD vulnerability and the strategies employed by households to adapt to disease consequences. Although surveyed households generally perceived KFD as an important health issue in the study region, there was variability in concern about contracting the disease. Overall results showed that poor access to land (AOR = 0.373, 95% CI: 0.152-0.916), being at or below the poverty line (AOR = 0.253, 95% CI: 0.094-0.685) and being headed by an older person (AOR = 1.038, 95% CI: 1.006-1.071) were all significant determinants of perceived KFD vulnerability. Furthermore, KFD vulnerability is also modulated by important extra-household factors including proximity to private hospitals (AOR = 3.281, 95% CI: 1.220-8.820), main roads (AOR = 2.144, 95% CI: 1.215-3.783) and study location (AOR = 0.226, 95% CI: 0.690-0.743). Our findings highlight how homogenous characterisation of smallholder and tribal communities and the 'techno-oriented' approach of existing interventions may further marginalise the most vulnerable and exacerbate existing inequalities. These findings are important for designing context-specific and appropriate health interventions (including the prioritisation of awareness raising, knowledge networks, livelihood diversification) that enhances the resilience of at-risk social groups within the KFD context. More broadly, our findings highlight how a focus on social vulnerability can help national and international health planners improve health interventions and prioritise among diseases with respect to neglected endemic zoonoses.

A health impact assessment of gender inequities associated with psychological distress during COVID19 in Australia's most locked down state-Victoria

BACKGROUND

Since March 2020, when the COVID19 pandemic hit Australia, Victoria has been in lockdown six times for 264 days, making it the world's longest cumulative locked-down city. This Health Impact Assessment evaluated gender disparities, especially women's mental health, represented by increased levels of psychological distress during the lockdowns.

METHODS

A desk-based, retrospective Health Impact Assessment was undertaken to explore the health impacts of the lockdown public health directive with an equity focus, on the Victorian population, through reviewing available qualitative and quantitative published studies and grey literature.

RESULTS

Findings from the assessment suggest the lockdown policies generated and perpetuated avoidable inequities harming mental health demonstrated through increased psychological distress, particularly for women, through psychosocial determinants.

CONCLUSION

Ongoing research is needed to elucidate these inequities further. Governments implementing policies to suppress and mitigate COVID19 need to consider how to reduce harmful consequences of these strategies to avoid further generating inequities towards vulnerable groups within the population and increasing inequalities in the broader society.

Data-driven predictions of potential Leishmania vectors in the Americas

The incidence of vector-borne diseases is rising as deforestation, climate change, and globalization bring humans in contact with arthropods that can transmit pathogens. In particular, incidence of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL), a disease caused by parasites transmitted by sandflies, is increasing as previously intact habitats are cleared for agriculture and urban areas, potentially bringing people into contact with vectors and reservoir hosts. Previous evidence has identified dozens of sandfly species that have been infected with and/or transmit Leishmania parasites. However, there is an incomplete understanding of which sandfly species transmit the parasite, complicating efforts to limit disease spread. Here, we apply machine learning models (boosted regression trees) to leverage biological and geographical traits of known sandfly vectors to predict potential vectors. Additionally, we generate trait profiles of confirmed vectors and identify important factors in transmission. Our model performed well with an average out of sample accuracy of 86%. The models predict that synanthropic sandflies living in areas with greater canopy height, less human modification, and within an optimal range of rainfall are more likely to be Leishmania vectors. We also observed that generalist sandflies that are able to inhabit many different ecoregions are more likely to transmit the parasites. Our results suggest that Psychodopygus amazonensis and Nyssomia antunesi are unidentified potential vectors, and should be the focus of sampling and research efforts. Overall, we found that our machine learning approach provides valuable information for Leishmania surveillance and management in an otherwise complex and data sparse system.

Words matter: how ecologists discuss managed and non-managed bees and birds

Effectively promoting the stability and quality of ecosystem services involves the successful management of domesticated species and the control of introduced species. In the pollinator literature, interest and concern regarding pollinator species and pollinator health dramatically increased in recent years. Concurrently, the use of loaded terms when discussing domesticated and non-native species may have increased. As a result, pollinator ecology has inherited both the confusion associated with invasion biology’s lack of a standardized terminology to describe native, managed, or introduced species as well as loaded terms with very strong positive or negative connotations. The recent explosion of research on native bees and alternative pollinators, coupled with the use of loaded language, has led to a perceived divide between native bee and managed bee researchers. In comparison, the bird literature discusses the study of managed (poultry) and non-managed (all other birds) species without an apparent conflict with regard to the use of terms with strong connotations or sentiment. Here, we analyze word usage when discussing non-managed and managed bee and bird species in 3614 ecological and evolutionary biology papers published between 1990 and 2019. Using time series analyses, we demonstrate how the use of specific descriptor terms (such as wild, introduced, and exotic) changed over time. We then conducted co-citation network analyses to determine whether papers that share references have similar terminology and sentiment. We predicted a negative language bias towards introduced species and positive language bias towards native species. We found an association between the term invasive and bumble bees and we observed significant increases in the usage of more ambiguous terms to describe non-managed species, such as wild. We detected a negative sentiment associated with the research area of pathogen spillover in bumble bees, which corroborates the subjectivity that language carries. We recommend using terms that acknowledge the role of human activities on pathogen spillover and biological invasions. Avoiding the usage of loaded terms when discussing managed and non-managed species will advance our understanding and promote effective and productive communication across scientists, general public, policy makers and other stake holders in our society.

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: protocol for a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

INTRODUCTION

The increasing incidence of pathogen transmission from animals to humans (zoonotic spillover events) has been attributed to behavioural practices and ecological and socioeconomic change. As these events sometimes involve pathogens with epidemic or pandemic potential, they pose a serious threat to population health. Public policies may play a key role in preventing these events. The aim of this review is to identify evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover, examining approaches taken to evaluation, choice of outcomes measures and evidence of effectiveness. Our approach to identifying and analysing this literature will be informed by a One Health lens, acknowledging the interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic scoping review methodology will be used. To identify articles, we will search Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We will screen titles and abstracts and extract data according to published guidelines for scoping reviews. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events will be eligible for inclusion. We will summarise key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway and outlining the range of policies, approaches to evaluation and outcome measures. Review findings will provide a useful reference for researchers and practitioners, outlining the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Formal ethical approval is not required, because the study does not involve primary data collection. The findings of this study will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication, presentations and summaries for key stakeholders.

Strategies for managing marine disease

The incidence of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) has increased in wildlife populations in recent years and is expected to continue to increase with global environmental change. Marine diseases are relatively understudied compared with terrestrial diseases but warrant parallel attention as they can disrupt ecosystems, cause economic loss, and threaten human livelihoods. Although there are many existing tools to combat the direct and indirect consequences of EIDs, these management strategies are often insufficient or ineffective in marine habitats compared with their terrestrial counterparts, often due to fundamental differences between marine and terrestrial systems. Here, we first illustrate how the marine environment and marine organism life histories present challenges and opportunities for wildlife disease management. We then assess the application of common disease management strategies to marine versus terrestrial systems to identify those that may be most effective for marine disease outbreak prevention, response, and recovery. Finally, we recommend multiple actions that will enable more successful management of marine wildlife disease emergencies in the future. These include prioritizing marine disease research and understanding its links to climate change, improving marine ecosystem health, forming better monitoring and response networks, developing marine veterinary medicine programs, and enacting policy that addresses marine and other wildlife diseases. Overall, we encourage a more proactive rather than reactive approach to marine wildlife disease management and emphasize that multidisciplinary collaborations are crucial to managing marine wildlife health.

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win-win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all" and "conserve life on land and below water", what progress has been made with win-win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win-win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.

Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs

Despite the global investment in One Health disease surveillance, it remains difficult and costly to identify and monitor the wildlife reservoirs of novel zoonotic viruses. Statistical models can guide sampling target prioritisation, but the predictions from any given model might be highly uncertain; moreover, systematic model validation is rare, and the drivers of model performance are consequently under-documented. Here, we use the bat hosts of betacoronaviruses as a case study for the data-driven process of comparing and validating predictive models of probable reservoir hosts. In early 2020, we generated an ensemble of eight statistical models that predicted host-virus associations and developed priority sampling recommendations for potential bat reservoirs of betacoronaviruses and bridge hosts for SARS-CoV-2. During a time frame of more than a year, we tracked the discovery of 47 new bat hosts of betacoronaviruses, validated the initial predictions, and dynamically updated our analytical pipeline. We found that ecological trait-based models performed well at predicting these novel hosts, whereas network methods consistently performed approximately as well or worse than expected at random. These findings illustrate the importance of ensemble modelling as a buffer against mixed-model quality and highlight the value of including host ecology in predictive models. Our revised models showed an improved performance compared with the initial ensemble, and predicted more than 400 bat species globally that could be undetected betacoronavirus hosts. We show, through systematic validation, that machine learning models can help to optimise wildlife sampling for undiscovered viruses and illustrates how such approaches are best implemented through a dynamic process of prediction, data collection, validation, and updating.

Understanding and strengthening wildlife and zoonotic disease policy processes: A research imperative

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the urgency and importance of monitoring, managing and addressing zoonotic diseases, and the acute challenges of doing so with sufficient inter-jurisdictional coordination in a dynamic global context. Although wildlife pathogens are well-studied clinically and ecologically, there is very little systematic scholarship on their management or on policy implications. The current global pandemic therefore presents a unique social science research imperative: to understand how decisions are made about preventing and responding to wildlife diseases, especially zoonoses, and how those policy processes can be improved as part of early warning systems, preparedness and rapid response. To meet these challenges, we recommend intensified research efforts towards: (i) generating functional insights about wildlife and zoonotic disease policy processes, (ii) enabling social and organizational learning to mobilize those insights, (iii) understanding epistemic instability to address populist anti-science and (iv) anticipating evolving and new zoonotic emergences, especially their human dimensions. Since policy processes for zoonoses can be acutely challenged during the early stages of an epidemic or pandemic, such insights can provide a pragmatic, empirically-based roadmap for enhancing their robustness and efficacy, and benefiting long-term decision-making efforts.

The Ecology of Viral Emergence

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a profound impact on human health, economic well-being, and societal function. It is essential that we use this generational experience to better understand the processes that underpin the emergence of COVID-19 and other zoonotic diseases. Herein, I review the mechanisms that determine why and how viruses emerge in new hosts, as well as the barriers to this process. I show that traditional studies of virus emergence have an inherent anthropocentric bias, with disease in humans considered the inevitable outcome of virus emergence, when in reality viruses are integral components of a global ecosystem characterized by continual host jumping with humans also transmitting their viruses to other animals. I illustrate these points using coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, as a case study. I also outline the potential steps that can be followed to help mitigate and prevent future pandemics, with combating climate change a central component. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 9 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Virus isolation data improve host predictions for New World rodent orthohantaviruses

Identifying reservoir host species is crucial for understanding the ecology of multi-host pathogens and predicting risks of pathogen spillover from wildlife to people. Predictive models are increasingly used for identifying ecological traits and prioritizing surveillance of likely zoonotic reservoirs, but these often employ different types of evidence for establishing host associations. Comparisons between models with different infection evidence are necessary to guide inferences about the trait profiles of likely hosts and identify which hosts and geographical regions are likely sources of spillover. Here, we use New World rodent-orthohantavirus associations to explore differences in the performance and predictions of models trained on two types of evidence for infection and onward transmission: RT-PCR and live virus isolation data, representing active infections versus host competence, respectively. Orthohantaviruses are primarily carried by muroid rodents and cause the diseases haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in humans. We show that although boosted regression tree (BRT) models trained on RT-PCR and live virus isolation data both performed well and capture generally similar trait profiles, rodent phylogeny influenced previously collected RT-PCR data, and BRTs using virus isolation data displayed a narrower list of predicted reservoirs than those using RT-PCR data. BRT models trained on RT-PCR data identified 138 undiscovered hosts and virus isolation models identified 92 undiscovered hosts, with 27 undiscovered hosts identified by both models. Distributions of predicted hosts were concentrated in several different regions for each model, with large discrepancies between evidence types. As a form of validation, virus isolation models independently predicted several orthohantavirus-rodent host associations that had been previously identified through empirical research using RT-PCR. Our model predictions provide a priority list of species and locations for future orthohantavirus sampling. More broadly, these results demonstrate the value of multiple data types for predicting zoonotic pathogen hosts. These methods can be applied across a range of systems to improve our understanding of pathogen maintenance and increase efficiency of pathogen surveillance.

Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains.

Wildmeat consumption and zoonotic spillover: contextualising disease emergence and policy responses

Zoonotic diseases are estimated to constitute 75% of all emerging infectious diseases, of which more than 70% come from wild species. The potential threat of zoonotic spillover from the consumption of wildmeat has been the subject of policy and media attention, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, little is known about the actual conditions that contribute to the risk of spillover and associated disease transmission. In this Review, we compile existing evidence from available literature on the conditions of spillover associated with wildmeat consumption, including the types of wild animal and disease, modes of transmission, and the conditions in which spillover is thought to have occurred. We suggest that stronger understanding of the context of spillover from wildmeat is needed to enable more targeted and effective policy responses that reduce the risk of future pandemics of zoonotic origin. Such interventions could also lead to the avoidance of unintended adverse consequences for human communities that rely on wild produce, including wildmeat, as sources of dietary protein, fat, and micronutrients.

Systematic mapping on the importance of vultures in the Indian public health discourse

Vultures are of immense ecological significance to forest and urban ecosystems. These birds play a major role in curbing environmental contamination through scavenging on carcasses. Prevention of spread of diseases is pivotal for public health and is an inexorable economic burden for any country. We present the crucial role vultures can play in disease mitigation and public health by regulating or decreasing the spread of zoonotic diseases. We elaborate examples from three zoonotic diseases; rabies, brucellosis and tuberculosis, which spread among dogs and cattle as well as human population. We establish the viable links in the transmission of these diseases from the infected dead and alive animals to humans and their possible exacerbation in the absence of vultures. These indirect links help formulate the case for increased interventions for disease spread and control along with conservation of these scavengers. Their role as natural and effective cleaners of the environment in the Indian health discourse is of importance because they can reduce the expenses of the government in waste management and maintenance of public health.

An eco-epidemiological modeling approach to investigate dilution effect in two different tick-borne pathosystems

Disease (re)emergence appears to be driven by biodiversity decline and environmental change. As a result, it is increasingly important to study host-pathogen interactions within the context of their ecology and evolution. The dilution effect is the concept that higher biodiversity decreases pathogen transmission. It has been observed especially in zoonotic vector-borne pathosystems, yet evidence against it has been found. In particular, it is still debated how the community (dis)assembly assumptions and the degree of generalism of vectors and pathogens affect the direction of the biodiversity-pathogen transmission relationship. The aim of this study was to use empirical data and mechanistic models to investigate dilution mechanisms in two rodent-tick-pathogen systems differing in their vector degree of generalism. A community was assembled to include ecological interactions that expand from purely additive to purely substitutive. Such systems are excellent candidates to analyze the link between vector ecology, community (dis)assembly dynamics, and pathogen transmission. To base our mechanistic models on empirical data, rodent live-trapping, including tick sampling, was conducted in Wales across two seasons for three consecutive years. We have developed a deterministic single-vector, multi-host compartmental model that includes ecological relationships with non-host species, uniquely integrating theoretical and observational approaches. To describe pathogen transmission across a gradient of community diversity, the model was populated with parameters describing five different scenarios differing in ecological complexity; each based around one of the pathosystems: Ixodes ricinus (generalist tick)-Borrelia burgdorferi and I. trianguliceps (small mammals specialist tick)-Babesia microti. The results suggested that community composition and interspecific dynamics affected pathogen transmission with different dilution outcomes depending on the vector degree of generalism. The model provides evidence that dilution and amplification effects are not mutually exclusive in the same community but depend on vector ecology and the epidemiological output considered (i.e., the "risk" of interest). In our scenarios, more functionally diverse communities resulted in fewer infectious rodents, supporting the dilution effect. In the pathosystem with generalist vector we identified a hump shaped relationship between diversity and infections in hosts, while for that characterized by specialist tick, this relationship was more complex and more dependent upon specific parameter values.

Three reasons why expanded use of natural enemy solutions may offer sustainable control of human infections

1. Many infectious pathogens spend a significant portion of their life cycles in the environment or in animal hosts, where ecological interactions with natural enemies may influence pathogen transmission to people. Yet, our understanding of natural enemy opportunities for human disease control is lacking, despite widespread uptake and success of natural enemy solutions for pest and parasite management in agriculture. 2. Here we explore three reasons why conserving, restoring, or augmenting specific natural enemies in the environment could offer a promising complement to conventional clinical strategies to fight environmentally mediated pathogens and parasites. (1) Natural enemies of human infections abound in nature, largely understudied and undiscovered. (2) Natural enemy solutions could provide ecological options for infectious disease control where conventional interventions are lacking. And, (3) Many natural enemy solutions could provide important co-benefits for conservation and human well-being. 3. We illustrate these three arguments with a broad set of examples whereby natural enemies of human infections have been used or proposed to curb human disease burden, with some clear successes. However, the evidence base for most proposed solutions is sparse, and many opportunities likely remain undiscovered, highlighting opportunities for future research.

Responsible biosecurity and risk mitigation for laboratory research on emerging pathogens of amphibians

The increasing study of emerging wildlife pathogens and a lack of policy or legislation regulating their translocation and use has heightened concerns about laboratory escape, species spillover, and subsequent epizootics among animal populations. Responsible self-regulation by research laboratories, in conjunction with institutional-level safeguards, has an important role in mitigating pathogen transmission and spillover, as well as potential interspecies pathogenesis. A model system in disease ecology that highlights these concerns and related amelioration efforts is research focused on amphibian emerging infectious diseases. Whereas laboratory escape of amphibian pathogens has not been reported and may be rare compared with introduction events from trade or human globalization, the threat that novel disease outbreaks with mass mortality effects pose to wild populations warrants thorough biosecurity measures to ensure containment and prevent spillover. Here, we present a case study of the laboratory biosecurity concerns for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans. We conclude that proactive biosecurity strategies are needed to integrate researcher and institutional oversight of aquatic wildlife pathogens generally, and we call for increased national and international policy and legislative enforcement. Furthermore, taking professional responsibility beyond current regulations is needed as development of legal guidance can be slow at national and international levels. We outline the need for annual laboratory risk assessments, comprehensive training for all laboratory personnel, and appropriate safeguards specific to pathogens under study. These strategies are critical for upholding the integrity and credibility of the scientific community and maintaining public support for research on wildlife diseases.

Eco-epidemiological scaling of Leptospirosis: Vulnerability mapping and early warning forecasts

Infectious disease epidemics are plaguing the world and a lot of research is focused on the development of models to reproduce disease dynamics for eco-environmental and biological investigation, and disease management. Leptospirosis is an example of a neglected zoonosis strongly mediated by ecohydrological dynamics with emerging endemic and epidemic patterns worldwide in both animal and human populations. By accounting for large heterogeneities of affected areas we show how exponential endemics and scale-free epidemics are largely predictable and linked to common socio-environmental features via scaling laws with different exponents that inform about vulnerability factors. This led to the development of a novel pattern-oriented integrated model that can be used as an early-warning signal (EWS) tool for endemic-epidemic regime classification, risk determinant attribution, and near real-time forecast of outbreaks. Forecasts are grounded on expected outbreak recurrence time dependent on exceedance probabilities and statistical EWS that sense outbreak onset. A stochastic spatially-explicit model is shown to comprehensively predict outbreak dynamics (early sensing, timing, magnitude, decay, and eco-environmental determinants) and derive a spreading factor characterizing endemics and epidemics, where average over maximum rainfall is the critical factor characterizing disease transitions. Dynamically, case cross-correlation considering neighboring communities senses 2-weeks in advance outbreaks. Eco-environmental scaling relationships highlight how predicted host suitability and topographic index can be used as epidemiological footprints to effectively distinguish and control Leptospirosis regimes and areas dependent on hydro-climatological dynamics as the main trigger. The spatio-temporal scale-invariance of epidemics - underpinning persistent criticality and neutrality or independence among areas - is emphasized by the high accuracy in reproducing sequence and magnitude of cases via reliable surveillance. Further investigations of robustness and universality of eco-environmental determinants are required; nonetheless a comprehensive and computationally simple EWS method for the full characterization of Leptospirosis is provided. The tool is extendable to other climate-sensitive zoonoses to define vulnerability factors and predict outbreaks useful for optimal disease risk prevention and control.

Demography, education, and research trends in the interdisciplinary field of disease ecology

Micro- and macroparasites are a leading cause of mortality for humans, animals, and plants, and there is great need to understand their origins, transmission dynamics, and impacts. Disease ecology formed as an interdisciplinary field in the 1970s to fill this need and has recently rapidly grown in size and influence. Because interdisciplinary fields integrate diverse scientific expertise and training experiences, understanding their composition and research priorities is often difficult. Here, for the first time, we quantify the composition and educational experiences of a subset of disease ecology practitioners and identify topical trends in published research. We combined a large survey of self-declared disease ecologists with a literature synthesis involving machine-learning topic detection of over 18,500 disease ecology research articles. The number of graduate degrees earned by disease ecology practitioners has grown dramatically since the early 2000s. Similar to other science fields, we show that practitioners in disease ecology have diversified in the last decade in terms of gender identity and institution, with weaker diversification in race and ethnicity. Topic detection analysis revealed how the frequency of publications on certain topics has declined (e.g., HIV, serology), increased (e.g., the dilution effect, infectious disease in bats), remained relatively common (e.g., malaria ecology, influenza, vaccine research and development), or have consistently remained relatively infrequent (e.g., theoretical models, field experiments). Other topics, such as climate change, superspreading, emerging infectious diseases, and network analyses, have recently come to prominence. This study helps identify the major themes of disease ecology and demonstrates how publication frequency corresponds to emergent health and environmental threats. More broadly, our approach provides a framework to examine the composition and publication trends of other major research fields that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries.

Assessing the extent of land-use change around important bat-inhabited caves

Background

Modification and destruction of natural habitats are bringing previously unencountered animal populations into contact with humans, with bats considered important zoonotic transmission vectors. Caves and cave-dwelling bats are under-represented in conservation plans. In South Africa, at least two cavernicolous species are of interest as potential zoonotic hosts: the Natal long-fingered bat Miniopterus natalensis and the Egyptian fruit bat Rousettus aegyptiacus. Little information is available about the anthropogenic pressures these species face around important roost sites. Both bats are numerous and widespread throughout the country; land-use changes and urban expansions are a rising concern for both conservation and increased bat-human contact.

Results

Our study addressed this shortfall by determining the extent of land-cover change around 47 roosts between 2014 and 2018 using existing land cover datasets. We determined the land-cover composition around important roost sites (including maternity, hibernacula and co-roosts), distances to urban settlements and assessed the current protection levels of roost localities. We detected an overall 4% decrease in natural woody vegetation (trees) within 5 km buffer zones of all roost sites, with a 10% decrease detected at co-roost sites alone. Agricultural land cover increased the most near roost sites, followed by plantations and urban land-cover. Overall, roosts were located 4.15 ± 0.91 km from urban settlements in 2018, the distances decreasing as urban areas expand. According to the South African National Biodiversity Institute Ecosystem Threat Status assessment, 72% of roosts fall outside of well-protected ecosystems.

Conclusions

The current lack of regulatory protection of cavernicolous bats and their roosts, increasing anthropogenic expansions and proximity to human settlements raises concerns about increased human-bat contact. Furthermore, uncontrolled roost visitation and vandalism are increasing, contributing to bat health risks and population declines, though the extent of roosts affected is yet to be quantified. In an era where pandemics are predicted to become more frequent and severe due to land-use change, our research is an urgent call for the formal protection of bat-inhabited caves to safeguard both bats and humans.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40850-021-00095-5.

Resistant bugs, porous borders and ecologies of care in India

As social science scholarship has routinely illustrated, professional practice is rarely as contained or coherent as it is often imagined to be. The increasing emphasis on the rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has drawn renewed attention to the interconnectedness of clinic, community, environment and planet, and how proposed 'solutions' to major problems such as AMR require a broad, cross-cutting lens. In this study, set in Hyderabad, India, we draw on a series of interviews with hospital-based clinicians completed during 2019 and early 2020, to unpack the multidimensional, ecological acceleration of AMR and the implications for everyday practice. Their accounts make visible how practice operates in relation to industrial economies, community vulnerabilities, and ecologies. This in turn highlights the problem of epistemic bordering, where 'sites' of AMR are targeted but are prone to leakage and transgressions. We propose an ecological approach to conceptualising antimicrobial practices with implications for AMR interventions being rolled out in the sub-continent and beyond.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

Epidemiology of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi in changing landscapes

Within the past two decades, incidence of human cases of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has increased markedly. P. knowlesi is now the most common cause of human malaria in Malaysia and threatens to undermine malaria control programmes across Southeast Asia. The emergence of zoonotic malaria corresponds to a period of rapid deforestation within this region. These environmental changes impact the distribution and behaviour of the simian hosts, mosquito vector species and human populations, creating new opportunities for P. knowlesi transmission. Here, we review how landscape changes can drive zoonotic disease emergence, examine the extent and causes of these changes across Southeast and identify how these mechanisms may be impacting P. knowlesi dynamics. We review the current spatial epidemiology of reported P. knowlesi infections in people and assess how these demographic and environmental changes may lead to changes in transmission patterns. Finally, we identify opportunities to improve P. knowlesi surveillance and develop targeted ecological interventions within these landscapes.

Synzootics

Ecologists increasingly recognise coinfection as an important component of emergent epidemiological patterns, connecting aspects of ecoimmunology, behaviour, ecosystem function and even extinction risk. Building on syndemic theory in medical anthropology, we propose the term 'synzootics' to describe co-occurring enzootic or epizootic processes that produce worse health outcomes in wild animals. Using framing from syndemic theory, we describe how the synzootic concept offers new insights into the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. We then recommend a set of empirical criteria and lines of evidence that can be used to identify synzootics in nature. We conclude by exploring how synzootics could indirectly drive the emergence of novel pathogens in human populations.

Setting the Terms for Zoonotic Diseases: Effective Communication for Research, Conservation, and Public Policy

Many of the world's most pressing issues, such as the emergence of zoonotic diseases, can only be addressed through interdisciplinary research. However, the findings of interdisciplinary research are susceptible to miscommunication among both professional and non-professional audiences due to differences in training, language, experience, and understanding. Such miscommunication contributes to the misunderstanding of key concepts or processes and hinders the development of effective research agendas and public policy. These misunderstandings can also provoke unnecessary fear in the public and have devastating effects for wildlife conservation. For example, inaccurate communication and subsequent misunderstanding of the potential associations between certain bats and zoonoses has led to persecution of diverse bats worldwide and even government calls to cull them. Here, we identify four types of miscommunication driven by the use of terminology regarding bats and the emergence of zoonotic diseases that we have categorized based on their root causes: (1) incorrect or overly broad use of terms; (2) terms that have unstable usage within a discipline, or different usages among disciplines; (3) terms that are used correctly but spark incorrect inferences about biological processes or significance in the audience; (4) incorrect inference drawn from the evidence presented. We illustrate each type of miscommunication with commonly misused or misinterpreted terms, providing a definition, caveats and common misconceptions, and suggest alternatives as appropriate. While we focus on terms specific to bats and disease ecology, we present a more general framework for addressing miscommunication that can be applied to other topics and disciplines to facilitate more effective research, problem-solving, and public policy.

Spatial variation in direct and indirect contact rates at the wildlife-livestock interface for informing disease management

Little is known about disease transmission relevant contact rates at the wildlife-livestock interface and the factors shaping them. Indirect contact via shared resources is thought to be important but remains unquantified in most systems, making it challenging to evaluate the impact of livestock management practices on contact networks. Free-ranging wild pigs (Sus scrofa) in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species with an expanding distribution that pose a threat to livestock health given their potential to transmit numerous livestock diseases, such as pseudorabies, brucellosis, trichinellosis, and echinococcosis, among many others. Our objective in this study was to quantify the spatial variations in direct and indirect contact rates among wild pigs and cattle on a commercial cow-calf operation in Florida, USA. Using GPS data from 20 wild pigs and 11 cattle and a continuous-time movement model, we extracted three types of spatial contacts between wild pigs and cattle, including direct contact, indirect contact in the pastoral environment (unknown naturally occurring resources), and indirect contact via anthropogenic cattle resources (feed supplements and water supply troughs). We examined the effects of sex, spatial proximity, and cattle supplement availability on contact rates at the species level and characterized wild pig usage of cattle supplements. Our results suggested daily pig-cattle direct contacts occurred only occasionally, while a significant number of pig-cattle indirect contacts occurred via natural resources distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. At cattle supplements, more indirect contacts occurred at liquid molasses than water troughs or molasses-mineral block tubs due to higher visitation rates by wild pigs. Our results can be directly used for parameterizing epidemiological models to inform risk assessment and optimal control strategies for controlling transmission of shared diseases.

No need to beat around the bushmeat-The role of wildlife trade and conservation initiatives in the emergence of zoonotic diseases

Wildlife species constitute a vast and uncharted reservoir of zoonotic pathogens that can pose a severe threat to global human health. Zoonoses have become increasingly impactful over the past decades, and the expanding trade in wildlife is unarguably among the most significant risk factors for their emergence. Despite several warnings from the academic community about the spillover risks associated with wildlife trade, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic underlines that current policies on the wildlife industry are deficient. Conservation initiatives, rather than practices that attempt to eradicate zoonotic pathogens or the wild species that harbour them, could play a vital role in preventing the emergence of life-threatening zoonoses. This review explores how wildlife conservation initiatives could effectively reduce the risk of new zoonotic diseases emerging from the wildlife trade by integrating existing literature on zoonotic diseases and risk factors associated with wildlife trade. Conservation should mainly aim at reducing human-wildlife interactions in the wildlife trade by protecting wildlife habitats and providing local communities with alternative protein sources. In addition, conservation should focus on regulating the legal wildlife trade and education about disease transfer and safer hunting and butchering methods. By uniting efforts for wildlife protection and universal concern for preventing zoonotic epidemics, conservation initiatives have the potential to safeguard both biodiversity, animal welfare, and global human health security.

Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.

Animal board invited review: Risks of zoonotic disease emergence at the interface of wildlife and livestock systems

The ongoing coronavirus disease 19s pandemic has yet again demonstrated the importance of the human-animal interface in the emergence of zoonotic diseases, and in particular the role of wildlife and livestock species as potential hosts and virus reservoirs. As most diseases emerge out of the human-animal interface, a better understanding of the specific drivers and mechanisms involved is crucial to prepare for future disease outbreaks. Interactions between wildlife and livestock systems contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases, especially in the face of globalization, habitat fragmentation and destruction and climate change. As several groups of viruses and bacteria are more likely to emerge, we focus on pathogenic viruses of the Bunyavirales, Coronaviridae, Flaviviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, and Paramyxoviridae, as well as bacterial species including Mycobacterium sp., Brucella sp., Bacillus anthracis and Coxiella burnetii. Noteworthy, it was difficult to predict the drivers of disease emergence in the past, even for well-known pathogens. Thus, an improved surveillance in hotspot areas and the availability of fast, effective, and adaptable control measures would definitely contribute to preparedness. We here propose strategies to mitigate the risk of emergence and/or re-emergence of prioritized pathogens to prevent future epidemics.