Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting

Human coronavirus HKU1 recognition of the TMPRSS2 host receptor

The human coronavirus HKU1 spike (S) glycoprotein engages host cell surface sialoglycans and transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) to initiate infection. The molecular basis of HKU1 binding to TMPRSS2 and determinants of host receptor tropism remain elusive. Here, we designed an active human TMPRSS2 construct enabling high-yield recombinant production in human cells of this key therapeutic target. We determined a cryo-electron microscopy structure of the HKU1 RBD bound to human TMPRSS2 providing a blueprint of the interactions supporting viral entry and explaining the specificity for TMPRSS2 among human type 2 transmembrane serine proteases. We found that human, rat, hamster and camel TMPRSS2 promote HKU1 S-mediated entry into cells and identified key residues governing host receptor usage. Our data show that serum antibodies targeting the HKU1 RBD TMPRSS2 binding-site are key for neutralization and that HKU1 uses conformational masking and glycan shielding to balance immune evasion and receptor engagement.

Public opinion on COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in Bangladesh: Who gets the vaccine and whom do you leave out?

One of the most challenging aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic is the inability to ensure equitable distribution of vaccines to fight the pandemic. Many governments around the globe had to prioritize and perform a triage in distributing the vaccines due to the limited supply as well as a lack of financial strength to acquire a sufficient number of vaccines in time. The present study assessed the public opinion in Bangladesh regarding vaccination prioritization strategy and its associated aspects. Due to the infectious nature of the viral transmission, the study used an online survey and collected a sample of 2291 respondents, distributed proportionally across sex, and income groups. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression modelling were utilized to conduct the analyses. The results emphasized unanimous preference of prioritized vaccination leaning towards the frontline workers, the severely sick and the elderly. However, the segregation across ethnicity was noted with no major preference among sexes or religion. The results reinforce the Bangladesh government's undertaken strategy of prioritization. However, the preference rankings varied across sociodemographic factors including self-assessed COVID-19 knowledge and income tiers, among others. The findings underline the necessity of improved risk communication strategies to ensure public confidence and conformity to vaccination efforts and their effective deployment across the country.

When might host heterogeneity drive the evolution of asymptomatic, pandemic coronaviruses?

Controlling many infectious diseases, including SARS-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), requires surveillance followed by isolation, contact-tracing and quarantining. These interventions often begin by identifying symptomatic individuals. However, actively removing pathogen strains causing symptomatic infections may inadvertently select for strains less likely to cause symptomatic infections. Moreover, a pathogen's fitness landscape is structured around a heterogeneous host pool; uneven surveillance efforts and distinct transmission risks across host classes can meaningfully alter selection pressures. Here, we explore this interplay between evolution caused by disease control efforts and the evolutionary consequences of host heterogeneity. Using an evolutionary epidemiology model parameterized for coronaviruses, we show that intense symptoms-driven disease control selects for asymptomatic strains, particularly when these efforts are applied unevenly across host groups. Under these conditions, increasing quarantine efforts have diverging effects. If isolation alone cannot eradicate, intensive quarantine efforts combined with uneven detections of asymptomatic infections (e.g., via neglect of some host classes) can favor the evolution of asymptomatic strains. We further show how, when intervention intensity depends on the prevalence of symptomatic infections, higher removal efforts (and isolating symptomatic cases in particular) more readily select for asymptomatic strains than when these efforts do not depend on prevalence. The selection pressures on pathogens caused by isolation and quarantining likely lie between the extremes of no intervention and thoroughly successful eradication. Thus, analyzing how different public health responses can select for asymptomatic pathogen strains is critical for identifying disease suppression efforts that can effectively manage emerging infectious diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07548-7.

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya: A Model with Reinfection Transmission Mechanism

In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care.

The impact of public health messaging and personal experience on the acceptance of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Face coverings have been shown to slow the spread of COVID-19, yet their use is not universal and remains controversial in the United States. Designing effective nudges for widespread adoption is important when federal mandates are politically or legally infeasible. We report the results from a survey experiment in which subjects were exposed to one of three video messages from President Trump, and then indicated their preference for wearing a mask. In the first video, the President simply recited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. In the second, the President additionally emphasized that wearing a mask is optional. In the third video, the President added that he will not personally wear a mask. We find that exposure to presidential messages can increase the stated likelihood of wearing a mask-particularly among the President's supporters. We also explore experiential effects of COVID-19, and find that people (especially supporters of the President) are more likely to support wearing a mask if they know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. These results offer guidance to policy makers and practitioners interested in understanding the factors that influence viral risk mitigation strategies.

High-throughput quantitation of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a single-dilution homogeneous assay

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019 and has since spread around the world, causing a pandemic of the respiratory disease COVID-19. Detecting antibodies against the virus is an essential tool for tracking infections and developing vaccines. Such tests, primarily utilizing the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) principle, can be either qualitative (reporting positive/negative results) or quantitative (reporting a value representing the quantity of specific antibodies). Quantitation is vital for determining stability or decline of antibody titers in convalescence, efficacy of different vaccination regimens, and detection of asymptomatic infections. Quantitation typically requires two-step ELISA testing, in which samples are first screened in a qualitative assay and positive samples are subsequently analyzed as a dilution series. To overcome the throughput limitations of this approach, we developed a simpler and faster system that is highly automatable and achieves quantitation in a single-dilution screening format with sensitivity and specificity comparable to those of ELISA.

Development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: challenges, risks, and the way forward

The COVID-19 pandemic mandates the development of a safe and effective Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. This review analyzes the complexities, challenges, and other vital issues associated with the development of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. A brief review of the immune responses (innate, antibody, and T-cell) to SARS-CoV-2, including immune targets, correlates of protection, and duration of immunity is presented. Approaches to vaccine development including different vaccine platforms, critical attributes of novel vaccine candidates, the status of the ongoing clinical trials, and the ways to speed up vaccine development are also reviewed. Despite a historical average success rate of only 6%, and a usual gestation period of 10-12 years for the development of a new vaccine, the world is on the verge of developing COVID-19 vaccines in an extraordinary short time span.

Simple mathematical models for controlling COVID-19 transmission through social distancing and community awareness

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. Also, its origin is still mysterious. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19 taking into consideration social distancing and community awareness. Both situations of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous population were considered. Based on the calculations, a sufficient degree of social distancing based on its reproductive ratio is found to be effective in controlling COVID-19, even in the absence of a vaccine. With a vaccine, social distancing minimizes the sufficient vaccination rate to control the disease. Community awareness also has a great impact in eradicating the virus transmission. The model is simulated on small-world networks and the role of social distancing in controlling the infection is explained.

Soluble Spike DNA Vaccine Provides Long-Term Protective Immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in Mice and Nonhuman Primates

The unprecedented and rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2) has motivated the need for a rapidly producible and scalable vaccine. Here, we developed a synthetic soluble SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) DNA-based vaccine candidate, GX-19. In mice, immunization with GX-19 elicited not only S-specific systemic and pulmonary antibody responses but also Th1-biased T cell responses in a dose-dependent manner. GX-19-vaccinated nonhuman primates seroconverted rapidly and exhibited a detectable neutralizing antibody response as well as multifunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses. Notably, when the immunized nonhuman primates were challenged at 10 weeks after the last vaccination with GX-19, they had reduced viral loads in contrast to non-vaccinated primates as a control. These findings indicate that GX-19 vaccination provides a durable protective immune response and also support further development of GX-19 as a vaccine candidate for SARS-CoV-2.

Clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 by re-infection vs. reactivation: a case series from Iran

COVID-19 immunity in infected individuals may not be persistent. The specific response wanes in patients who have recovered from this infection. Nevertheless, it has not been fully understood whether true re-infection occurs or the viral reactivation. In this study, we investigated three COVID-19 patients who represented the symptoms after recovery. Chest CT scan was applied to assess the patients along with the viral samples from oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal which were subjected to RT-PCR. The viral genome sequencing was applied where possible to distinguish possible re-infection or latent reactivation. Moreover, COVID-19-specific antibodies available data were evaluated in each incidence. The second episode of SARS-CoV-2 infection was different among the investigated subjects who experienced an interval between positive PCR tests ranged between 63 and 156 days. The disease presentation was less or more severe in the second infection. All cases were found IgG positive in the re-infection phase. The sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 sample obtained from two cases revealed a D614G mutation of S gene from the second isolated sample strengthens the case for the re-infection. The possibility of re-infection and reactivation could have significant effect on clinical implications and also vaccination. Our data supports clear warning of SARS-CoV-2 continuous circulation potency among the populations in spite of herd immunity either with natural infection or vaccination. This issue is critical in term of the patients, clinical investigate, and viral transmission.

Evaluation of 18 commercial serological assays for the detection of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in paired serum samples

A variety of serological tests have been developed to detect the presence of antibodies against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We evaluated the performance of 18 commercially available SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays. Early (6-8 days after the start of symptoms) and late sera (>14 days) from ICU patients (n=10 and n=16, respectively) and healthcare workers (n=5 and n=9, respectively) were included. Additionally, 22 sera were included to detect potential cross-reactivity. Test characteristics were determined for the 18 assays. In >14 days samples, the Vircell IgG and Wantai Ig ELISAs had superior sensitivity compared to the other ELISAs (96%). Furthermore, the Roche Ig, the Epitope Diagnostics IgM, Wantai IgM, Euroimmun IgG, and IgA all showed a specificity of 100%. The POCTs of Boson Biotech and ACRO Biotech showed the highest sensitivities: 100% and 96% (83.5-99.8), respectively. The POCT of Orient Gene Biotech, VOMED Diagnostics, and Coris-Bioconcept showed highest specificities (100%). For the IgM and IgA assays, the Euroimmun IgA test showed the highest sensitivity in early samples: 46.7% (23.5-70.9) to 53.3% (29.1-76.5). In general, all tests performed better in patients with severe symptoms (ICU patients). We conclude that the Wantai Ig and Vircell IgG ELISAs may be suitable for diagnostic purposes. The IgM/IgA tests performed poorer than their IgG/Ig counterparts but may have a role in diagnoses of SARS-CoV-2 in a population in which the background seroprevalence of IgG high, and IgM and/or IgA may distinguish between acute or past infection.

Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 antibody study using the Easy Check COVID-19 IgM/IgG™ lateral flow assay

Since the initial identification of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in December of 2019, researchers have raced to understand its pathogenesis and begun devising vaccine and treatment strategies. An accurate understanding of the body’s temporal immune response against SARS-CoV-2 is paramount to successful vaccine development and disease progression monitoring. To provide insight into the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2, plasma samples from 181 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients collected at various timepoints post-symptom onset (PSO) were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies via lateral flow. Additionally, 21 donors were tracked over time to elucidate patient-specific immune responses. We found sustained levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies past 130 days PSO, with 99% positivity observed at 31–60 days PSO. By 61–90 days PSO, the percentage of IgM-/IgG+ results were nearly equal to that of IgM+/IgG+ results, demonstrating a shift in the immune response with a decrease in IgM antibody levels. Results from this study not only provide evidence that the antibody response to COVID-19 can persist for over 4 months, but also demonstrates the ability of Easy Check™ to monitor seroconversion and antibody response of patients. Easy Check was sufficiently sensitive to detect antibodies in patient samples as early as 1–4 days PSO with 86% positivity observed at 5–7 days PSO. Further studies are required to determine the longevity and efficacy of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and whether they are protective against re-infection.

Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 antibody study using the Easy Check COVID-19 IgM/IgG™ lateral flow assay

Since the initial identification of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in December of 2019, researchers have raced to understand its pathogenesis and begun devising vaccine and treatment strategies. An accurate understanding of the body's temporal immune response against SARS-CoV-2 is paramount to successful vaccine development and disease progression monitoring. To provide insight into the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2, plasma samples from 181 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients collected at various timepoints post-symptom onset (PSO) were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies via lateral flow. Additionally, 21 donors were tracked over time to elucidate patient-specific immune responses. We found sustained levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies past 130 days PSO, with 99% positivity observed at 31-60 days PSO. By 61-90 days PSO, the percentage of IgM-/IgG+ results were nearly equal to that of IgM+/IgG+ results, demonstrating a shift in the immune response with a decrease in IgM antibody levels. Results from this study not only provide evidence that the antibody response to COVID-19 can persist for over 4 months, but also demonstrates the ability of Easy Check™ to monitor seroconversion and antibody response of patients. Easy Check was sufficiently sensitive to detect antibodies in patient samples as early as 1-4 days PSO with 86% positivity observed at 5-7 days PSO. Further studies are required to determine the longevity and efficacy of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and whether they are protective against re-infection.

IgM and IgG Profiles Reveal Peculiar Features of Humoral Immunity Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is globally a major healthcare threat. There is little information regarding the mechanisms and roles of the humoral response in SARS-CoV-2 infection. The aim of this study was to analyze the antibody levels (IgM and IgG) by chemiluminescence immunoassay in 54 subjects positive to SARS-CoV-2 swab test in relation to their clinical status (whether asymptomatic, pauci-symptomatic or with mild, sever or critical symptoms), the time from the symptom onset, sex, age, and comorbidities. Overall, the presence of comorbidities and the age of subjects were associated with their clinical status. The IgG concentrations were significantly higher in patients who developed critical and severe symptoms and seemed to be independent from age, sex and comorbidities. IgG titers peaked around day 60, and then began gradually to drop, decreasing by approximately 50% on the 180th day, while the IgM titers progressively decreased as early as the tenth day, but they could be detected even at later time points. Despite the small number of individuals, some peculiar characteristics of the humoral response in COVID-19 emerged. We observed a high inter-individual variability, an ephemeral IgG half-life in several patients, and a persistence of IgM in others.

Differential T cell reactivity to seasonal coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 in community and health care workers

Herein we measured CD4+ T cell responses against common cold corona (CCC) viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in high-risk health care workers (HCW) and community controls. We observed higher levels of CCC reactive T cells in SARS-CoV-2 seronegative HCW compared to community donors, consistent with potential higher occupational exposure of HCW to CCC. We further show that SARS-CoV-2 reactivity of seronegative HCW was higher than community controls and correlation between CCC and SARS-CoV-2 responses is consistent with cross-reactivity and not associated with recent in vivo activation. Surprisingly, CCC reactivity was decreased in SARS-CoV-2 infected HCW, suggesting that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might interfere with CCC responses, either directly or indirectly. This result was unexpected, but consistently detected in independent cohorts derived from Miami and San Diego.

Robust estimation of diagnostic rate and real incidence of COVID-19 for European policymakers

Policymakers need clear, fast assessment of the real spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in each of their respective countries. Standard measures of the situation provided by the governments include reported positive cases and total deaths. While total deaths indicate immediately that countries like Italy and Spain had the worst situation as of mid-April, 2020, reported cases alone do not provide a complete picture of the situation. Different countries diagnose differently and present very distinctive reported case fatality ratios. Similar levels of reported incidence and mortality might hide a very different underlying pictures. Here we present a straightforward and robust estimation of the diagnostic rate in each European country. From that estimation we obtain a uniform, unbiased incidence of the epidemic. The method to obtain the diagnostic rate is transparent and empirical. The key assumption of the method is that the infection fatality ratio of COVID-19 in Europe is not strongly country-dependent. We show that this number is not expected to be biased due to demography nor to the way total deaths are reported. The estimation protocol is dynamic, and it has been yielding converging numbers for diagnostic rates in all European countries as from mid-April, 2020. Using this diagnostic rate, policy makers can obtain Effective Potential Growth updated every day, providing an unbiased assessment of the countries at greater risk of experiencing an uncontrolled situation. The method developed has been and will be used to track possible improvements in the diagnostic rate in European countries as the epidemic evolves.

Dual ELISA using SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein produced in E. coli and CHO cells reveals epitope masking by N-glycosylation

Spike and nucleocapsid proteins of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2-SP, SARS-CoV-2-NP) are the main immunogenic targets for antibodies. We herein demonstrate that the glycosylation of SARS-CoV-2-NP masks some of its antibody epitopes. In many cases, this can lead to false-negative serological tests. Deglycosylation of SARS-CoV-2-NP significantly increased the number of positive tests. The glycosylation pattern analysis of this protein revealed that the putative N-linked glycosylation sites, at the amino acid positions 48 and 270, co-located with two of the main immunodominant B cell epitopes.

SIRSi compartmental model for COVID-19 pandemic with immunity loss

The coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak led the world to an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In an attempt to respond to this emergency, researchers worldwide are intensively studying the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this study, a Susceptible - Infected - Removed - Sick (SIRSi) compartmental model is proposed, which is a modification of the classical Susceptible - Infected - Removed (SIR) model. The proposed model considers the possibility of unreported or asymptomatic cases, and differences in the immunity within a population, i.e., the possibility that the acquired immunity may be temporary, which occurs when adopting one of the parameters ( γ ) other than zero. Local asymptotic stability and endemic equilibrium conditions are proved for the proposed model. The model is adjusted to the data from three major cities of the state of São Paulo in Brazil, namely, São Paulo, Santos, and Campinas, providing estimations of duration and peaks related to the disease propagation. This study reveals that temporary immunity favors a second wave of infection and it depends on the time interval for a recovered person to be susceptible again. It also indicates the possibility that a greater number of patients would get infected with decreased time for reinfection.

Humoral Responses and Serological Assays in SARS-CoV-2 Infections

In December 2019, the novel betacoronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Disease Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in Wuhan, China. SARS-CoV-2 has since become a pandemic virus resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths and deep socioeconomic implications worldwide. In recent months, efforts have been directed towards detecting, tracking, and better understanding human humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection. It has become critical to develop robust and reliable serological assays to characterize the abundance, neutralization efficiency, and duration of antibodies in virus-exposed individuals. Here we review the latest knowledge on humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection, along with the benefits and limitations of currently available commercial and laboratory-based serological assays. We also highlight important serological considerations, such as antibody expression levels, stability and neutralization dynamics, as well as cross-reactivity and possible immunological back-boosting by seasonal coronaviruses. The ability to accurately detect, measure and characterize the various antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 is necessary for vaccine development, manage risk and exposure for healthcare and at-risk workers, and for monitoring reinfections with genetic variants and new strains of the virus. Having a thorough understanding of the benefits and cautions of standardized serological testing at a community level remains critically important in the design and implementation of future vaccination campaigns, epidemiological models of immunity, and public health measures that rely heavily on up-to-date knowledge of transmission dynamics.

Understanding the dynamics of COVID-19; implications for therapeutic intervention, vaccine development and movement control

The COVID-19 disease is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is highly infective within the human population. The virus is widely disseminated to almost every continent with over twenty-seven million infections and over ninety-thousand reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 disease. SARS-CoV-2 is a single stranded RNA virus, comprising three main viral proteins; membrane, spike and envelope. The clinical features of COVID-19 disease can be classified according to different degrees of severity, with some patients progressing to acute respiratory distress syndrome, which can be fatal. In addition, many infections are asymptomatic or only cause mild symptoms. As there is no specific treatment for COVID-19 there is considerable endeavour to raise a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, in addition to engineering neutralizing antibody interventions. In the absence of an effective vaccine, movement controls of varying stringencies have been imposed. Whilst enforced lockdown measures have been effective, they may be less effective against the current strain of SARS-CoV-2, the G614 clade. Conversely, other mutations of the virus, such as the Δ382 variant could reduce the clinical relevance of infection. The front runners in the race to develop an effective vaccine focus on the SARS-Co-V-2 Spike protein. However, vaccines that produce a T-cell response to a wider range of SARS-Co-V-2 viral proteins, may be more effective. Population based studies that determine the level of innate immunity to SARS-CoV-2, from prior exposure to the virus or to other coronaviruses, will have important implications for government imposed movement control and the strategic delivery of vaccination programmes.

Newly Reported Studies on the Increase in Gastrointestinal Symptom Prevalence withCOVID-19 Infection: A Comprehensive Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although constitutional and respiratory symptoms such as cough and fever are the most common symptoms in patients infected with COVID-19, gastrointestinal (GI) tract involvement has been observed by endoscopic biopsies. Multiple GI symptoms, including diarrhea, nausea or vomiting and abdominal pain, have also been reported. This review aims to present the currently available data regarding the GI symptoms of COVID-19 patients, and to compare the frequency of GI symptoms in early stage (Eastern) mostly Chinese data to the current stage (Western) non-Chinese data.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search to identify both published studies by using PubMed, Google Scholar, and CNKI (Chinese medical search engine), and yet unpublished studies through medRxiv and bioRxiv. We also reviewed the cross references of the detected articles. We conducted a Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) search up until 20 September 2020. We pooled the prevalence of symptoms of diarrhea, anorexia, nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain by using the Freeman-Tukey's transforming random effect model.

RESULTS

A total of 118 studies were included in the systematic review and 44 of them were included in the meta-analysis. There was a significant heterogeneity between the studies; therefore, the random effects model was used. The pooled prevalence estimate of any GI symptoms reported was found to be 0.21 (95%CI, 0.16-0.27). Anorexia was the most commonly reported GI symptom at 18% (95%CI, 0.10-0.27) followed by diarrhea at 15% (95%CI, 0.12-0.19). Diarrhea, abdominal pain, nausea/vomiting, and respiratory symptoms were more common in non-Chinese studies. The prevalence of abdominal pain was lower in the "inpatient-only" studies when compared with studies that included outpatients only and those including both inpatients and outpatients.

CONCLUSIONS

In this comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis study, we observed higher rates of diarrhea, nausea/vomiting, and abdominal pain in COVID-19 infected patients among non-Chinese studies compared to Chinese studies. We also observed a higher prevalence of GI symptoms in Chinese studies than was reported previously. Non-respiratory symptoms, including GI tract symptoms, should be more thoroughly and carefully evaluated and reported in future studies.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Inactivation by Gamma Irradiation for T and B Cell Immunity

Despite accumulating preclinical data demonstrating a crucial role of cytotoxic T cell immunity during viral infections, ongoing efforts on developing COVID-19 vaccines are mostly focused on antibodies. In this commentary article, we discuss potential benefits of cytotoxic T cells in providing long-term protection against COVID-19. Further, we propose that gamma-ray irradiation, which is a previously tested inactivation method, may be utilized to prepare an experimental COVID-19 vaccine that can provide balanced immunity involving both B and T cells.

Epitope similarity cannot explain the pre-formed T cell immunity towards structural SARS-CoV-2 proteins

The current pandemic is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and large progress in understanding the pathology of the virus has been made since its emergence in late 2019. Several reports indicate short lasting immunity against endemic coronaviruses, which contrasts studies showing that biobanked venous blood contains T cells reactive to SARS-CoV-2 S-protein even before the outbreak in Wuhan. This suggests a preformed T cell memory towards structural proteins in individuals not exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Given the similarity of SARS-CoV-2 to other members of the Coronaviridae family, the endemic coronaviruses appear likely candidates to generate this T cell memory. However, given the apparent poor immunological memory created by the endemic coronaviruses, immunity against other common pathogens might offer an alternative explanation. Here, we utilize a combination of epitope prediction and similarity to common human pathogens to identify potential sources of the SARS-CoV-2 T cell memory. Although beta-coronaviruses are the most likely candidates to explain the pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in uninfected individuals, the SARS-CoV-2 epitopes with the highest similarity to those from beta-coronaviruses are confined to replication associated proteins-not the host interacting S-protein. Thus, our study suggests that the observed SARS-CoV-2 pre-formed immunity to structural proteins is not driven by near-identical epitopes.

The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; however, neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. We show how immunity, depending on its durability, may work with current social practices to limit the spread of the virus. We further show that a vaccine that is 50% effective and taken by 50% of the population will prevent further loss of life, providing that social distancing is still practiced and that immunity does not wane quickly.IMPORTANCE The ability of our society to function effectively moving forward will depend on how the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is contained. Immunity to the virus will be critical to this equation.

Rapid Antibody-Based COVID-19 Mass Surveillance: Relevance, Challenges, and Prospects in a Pandemic and Post-Pandemic World

The aggressive outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease-2019) pandemic demands rapid and simplified testing tools for its effective management. Increased mass testing and surveillance are crucial for controlling the disease spread, obtaining better pandemic statistics, and developing realistic epidemiological models. Despite the advantages of nucleic acid- and antigen-based tests such as accuracy, specificity, and non-invasive approaches of sample collection, they can only detect active infections. Antibodies (immunoglobulins) are produced by the host immune system within a few days after infection and persist in the blood for at least several weeks after infection resolution. Antibody-based tests have provided a substitute and effective method of ultra-rapid detection for multiple contagious disease outbreaks in the past, including viral diseases such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome). Thus, although not highly suitable for early diagnosis, antibody-based methods can be utilized to detect past infections hidden in the population, including asymptomatic ones. In an active community spread scenario of a disease that can provide a bigger window for mass detections and a practical approach for continuous surveillance. These factors encouraged researchers to investigate means of improving antibody-based rapid tests and employ them as reliable, reproducible, sensitive, specific, and economic tools for COVID-19 mass testing and surveillance. The development and integration of such immunoglobulin-based tests can transform the pandemic diagnosis by moving the same out of the clinics and laboratories into community testing sites and homes. This review discusses the principle, technology, and strategies being used in antibody-based testing at present. It also underlines the immense prospect of immunoglobulin-based testing and the efficacy of repeated planned deployment in pandemic management and post-pandemic sustainable screenings globally.

Kinetics of Nucleo- and Spike Protein-Specific Immunoglobulin G and of Virus-Neutralizing Antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Kinetics of neutralizing antibodies and immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the nucleo (N) or spike (S) proteins of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type2 (SARS-CoV-2) were studied in patients up to 165 days after PCR diagnosis of infection. Two immunoassays were selected out of eight IgG or total antibody tests by comparing their specificities and sensitivities. Sensitivities were calculated with convalescent sera from 26 PCR-confirmed cases, of which 76.9% had neutralizing antibodies (>1:10). Stored sera collected during the summer 2018 (N = 50) and winter seasons 2018/2019 (N = 50) were included to demonstrate the test specificities. IgG kinetics, avidities, and virus-neutralizing capacities were recorded over up to 165 days in eleven patients and five individuals from routine diagnostics. Sensitivities, specificities, and diagnostic accuracies ranged between 80.8-96.3%, 96.0-100%, and 93.7-99.2%, respectively. Nearly all results were confirmed with two different SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoblots. Six (54.4%) patients exhibited stable N-specific IgG indices over 120 days and longer; three of them developed IgG of high avidity. The S-specific IgG response was stable in ten (91.0%) patients, and eight (72.7%) had neutralizing antibodies. However, the titers were relatively low, suggesting that sustained humoral immunity is uncertain, especially after outpatient SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19 Vaccines: "Warp Speed" Needs Mind Melds, Not Warped Minds

In this review, we address issues that relate to the rapid "Warp Speed" development of vaccines to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the antibody response that is triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection of humans and how it may inform vaccine research. The isolation and properties of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies from COVID-19 patients provide additional information on what vaccines should try to elicit. The nature and longevity of the antibody response to coronaviruses are relevant to the potency and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. We summarize the immunogenicity of leading vaccine candidates tested to date in animals and humans and discuss the outcome and interpretation of virus challenge experiments in animals. By far the most immunogenic vaccine candidates for antibody responses are recombinant proteins, which were not included in the initial wave of Warp Speed immunogens. A substantial concern for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is adverse events, which we review by considering what was seen in studies of SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) vaccines. We conclude by outlining the possible outcomes of the Warp Speed vaccine program, which range from the hoped-for rapid success to a catastrophic adverse influence on vaccine uptake generally.

COVID-19 in India: Statewise Analysis and Prediction

BACKGROUND

The highly infectious coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and subsequently spread to 212 countries and territories around the world, infecting millions of people. In India, a large country of about 1.3 billion people, the disease was first detected on January 30, 2020, in a student returning from Wuhan. The total number of confirmed infections in India as of May 3, 2020, is more than 37,000 and is currently growing fast.

OBJECTIVE

Most of the prior research and media coverage focused on the number of infections in the entire country. However, given the size and diversity of India, it is important to look at the spread of the disease in each state separately, wherein the situations are quite different. In this paper, we aim to analyze data on the number of infected people in each Indian state (restricted to only those states with enough data for prediction) and predict the number of infections for that state in the next 30 days. We hope that such statewise predictions would help the state governments better channelize their limited health care resources.

METHODS

Since predictions from any one model can potentially be misleading, we considered three growth models, namely, the logistic, the exponential, and the susceptible-infectious-susceptible models, and finally developed a data-driven ensemble of predictions from the logistic and the exponential models using functions of the model-free maximum daily infection rate (DIR) over the last 2 weeks (a measure of recent trend) as weights. The DIR is used to measure the success of the nationwide lockdown. We jointly interpreted the results from all models along with the recent DIR values for each state and categorized the states as severe, moderate, or controlled.

RESULTS

We found that 7 states, namely, Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal are in the severe category. Among the remaining states, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Bihar are in the moderate category, whereas Kerala, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, and Telangana are in the controlled category. We also tabulated actual predicted numbers from various models for each state. All the R2 values corresponding to the logistic and the exponential models are above 0.90, indicating a reasonable goodness of fit. We also provide a web application to see the forecast based on recent data that is updated regularly.

CONCLUSIONS

States with nondecreasing DIR values need to immediately ramp up the preventive measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the states with decreasing DIR can maintain the same status to see the DIR slowly become zero or negative for a consecutive 14 days to be able to declare the end of the pandemic.

Longitudinal analysis of clinical serology assay performance and neutralising antibody levels in COVID19 convalescents

OBJECTIVES

To investigate longitudinal trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies and the performance of serological assays in diagnosing prior infection and predicting serum neutralisation titres with time Design Retrospective longitudinal analysis of a COVID19 case cohort . Setting NHS outpatient clinics Participants Individuals with RT-PCR diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection that did not require hospitalization Main outcome measures The sensitivity with which prior infection was detected and quantitative antibody titres were assessed using four SARS-CoV-2 serologic assay platforms. Two platforms employed SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) based antigens and two employed nucleocapsid (N) based antigens. Serum neutralising antibody titres were measured using a validated pseudotyped virus SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation assay. The ability of the serological assays to predict neutralisation titres at various times after PCR diagnosis was assessed. Results The three of the four serological assays had sensitivities of 95 to100% at 21-40 days post PCR-diagnosis, while a fourth assay had a lower sensitivity of 85%. The relative sensitivities of the assays changed with time and the sensitivity of one assay that had an initial sensitivity of >95% declined to 85% at 61-80 post PCR diagnosis, and to 71% at 81-100 days post diagnosis. Median antibody titres decreased in one serologic assay but were maintained over the observation period in other assays. The trajectories of median antibody titres measured in serologic assays over this time period were not dependent on whether the SARS-CoV-2 N or S proteins were used as antigen source. A broad range of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising titres were evident in individual sera, that decreased over time in the majority of participants; the median neutralisation titre in the cohort decreased by 45% over 4 weeks. Each of the serological assays gave quantitative measurements of antibody titres that correlated with SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation titres, but, the S-based serological assay measurements better predicted serum neutralisation potency. The strength of correlation between serologic assay results and neutralisation titres deteriorated with time and decreases in neutralisation titres in individual participants were not well predicted by changes in antibody titres measured using serologic assays.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 serologic assays differed in their comparative diagnostic performance over time. Different assays are more or less well suited for surveillance of populations for prior infection versus prediction of serum neutralisation potency. Continued monitoring of declining neutralisation titres during extended follow up should facilitate the establishment of appropriate serologic correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.