The freeze on mass media campaigns in England: a natural experiment of the impact of tobacco control campaigns on quitting behaviour

Associations of Prevalence of E-cigarette Use With Quit Attempts, Quit Success, Use of Smoking Cessation Medication, and the Overall Quit Rate Among Smokers in England: A Time-Series Analysis of Population Trends 2007-2022

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to (1) provide up-to-date estimates of how changes in the prevalence of e-cigarette use have been associated with changes in smoking cessation activities and use of licensed treatments among smokers in England and (2) explore any changes in these associations over time.

METHODS

Data were aggregated quarterly on 67 548 past-year smokers between Q1-2007 and Q4-2022. Explanatory variables were the prevalence of (1) current e-cigarette use among smokers and (2) e-cigarette use during a quit attempt. Outcomes were rates of quit attempts and overall quits among past-year smokers, and the quit success rate and use of licensed treatments among those who made a quit attempt.

RESULTS

The success rate of quit attempts increased by 0.040% (95% CI 0.019; 0.062) for every 1% increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use during a quit attempt. No clear evidence was found for an association between current e-cigarette use and the quit attempt rate (Badj = 0.008 [95% CI -0.045; 0.061]) or overall quit rate (Badj = 0.063 [-0.031; 0.158]); or between use of e-cigarettes during a quit attempt and the overall quit rate (Badj = 0.030 [-0.054; 0.114]), use of prescription medication (varenicline/bupropion/nicotine replacement therapy [NRT]: Badj = -0.036 [-0.175; 0.102]), or use of over-the-counter NRT (Badj = -0.052 [-0.120; 0.015]). There was no clear evidence this pattern of associations has changed substantially over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in the prevalence of e-cigarette use in England through 2022 have been positively associated with the success rate of quit attempts but not clearly associated with the quit attempt rate, overall quit rate, or use of licensed smoking cessation treatments.

IMPLICATIONS

If the association between the increase in e-cigarette use and the quit success rate is causal, then the use of e-cigarettes in quit attempts has helped in the region of 30 000 to 50 000 additional smokers in England to successfully quit each year since they became popular in 2013, over and above the number who were quitting before the advent of e-cigarettes.

Have there been sustained impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends in smoking prevalence, uptake, quitting, use of treatment, and relapse? A monthly population study in England, 2017-2022

BACKGROUND

Studies conducted during the early stages of the pandemic documented mixed changes in smoking behaviour: more smokers quitting successfully but little change in prevalence. This study aimed to examine whether there have been sustained impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on smoking patterns in England.

METHODS

Data were from 101,960 adults (≥ 18 years) participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study, a monthly representative household survey, between June 2017 and August 2022. Interviews were conducted face-to-face until March 2020 and via telephone thereafter. Generalised additive models estimated associations of the pandemic onset (March 2020) with current smoking, uptake, cessation, quit attempts, and use of support. Models adjusted for seasonality, sociodemographic characteristics, and (where relevant) dependence and tobacco control mass-media expenditure.

RESULTS

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, smoking prevalence fell by 5.2% per year; this rate of decline slowed to 0.3% per year during the pandemic (RRΔtrend = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.09). This slowing was evident in more but not less advantaged social grades (RRΔtrend = 1.15, 1.08, 1.21; RRΔtrend = 1.00, 0.96, 1.05). There were sustained step-level changes in different age groups: a 34.9% (95% CI = 17.7, 54.7%) increase in smoking prevalence among 18-24-year-olds, indicating a potential rise in uptake, in contrast to a 13.6% (95% CI = 4.4, 21.9%) decrease among 45-65-year-olds. In both age groups, these step-level changes were followed by the pre-pandemic declines stopping, and prevalence remaining flat. There were sustained increases in quitting among past-year smokers, with a 120.4% (95% CI = 79.4, 170.9%) step-level increase in cessation and a 41.7% (95% CI = 29.7, 54.7%) increase in quit attempts. The main limitation was the change in modality of data collection when the pandemic started; while this may have contributed to the step-level changes we observed, it is unlikely to explain changes in the slope of trends.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, the rate of decline in adult smoking prevalence stagnated during the COVID-19 pandemic through to 2022. At the start of the pandemic, a potential reduction in smoking prevalence among middle-aged adults and increases in quitting among smokers may have been offset by an increase in smoking among young adults. The slowing in the rate of decline was pronounced in more advantaged social grades.

A scoping review of media campaign strategies used to reach populations living with or at high risk for Hepatitis C in high income countries to inform future national campaigns in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

With the advent of direct acting antivirals, the World Health Organisation proposed eliminating Hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. To achieve this, countries need to diagnose, engage in care and treat their undiagnosed populations. This will require sensitisation campaigns. However previous media campaigns have had mixed impact. We conducted a scoping review to identify and understand the impact of previous Hepatitis C media campaigns. These findings could inform the delivery of future campaigns.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases for published literature on media campaigns conducted for Hepatitis C awareness, testing, and treatment in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since 2010. Two independent reviewers screened citations for inclusion. Additionally, we spoke to stakeholders in the Hepatitis C field in the UK and conducted a Google search to identify any unpublished literature. A quantitative synthesis was conducted to identify targeted populations, strategies and media used, aims and impact of the campaigns.

RESULTS

A title and year of publication screening of 3815 citations resulted in 113 papers that had a full abstract screen. This left 50 full-text papers, 18 were included of which 9 (50%) were from Europe. 5 (27.8%) of campaigns targeted minority ethnicities, and 9 (50%) aimed to increase testing. A Google search identified 6 grey literature sources. Most campaigns were not evaluated for impact. Discussions with stakeholders identified several barriers to successful campaigns including lack of targeted messaging, stigmatising or accusatory messaging, and short-lived or intermittent campaign strategies.

CONCLUSION

Future campaigns will likely need to be multifaceted and have multiple tailored interventions. Campaigns will need to be sizeable and robust, integrated into health systems and viewed as an ongoing service rather than one-offs.

Scanned information exposure and support for tobacco regulations among US youth and young adult tobacco product users and non-users

The influences of information exposure on youth and young adults' (YYA) support for smoking/vaping regulations have been understudied. This study examines (i) the relationships between routine exposure to (i.e. scanning) anti-smoking/pro-vaping information and YYA support for anti-smoking/vaping regulations and (ii) whether these relationships differ across YYA users and non-users of tobacco products. We analyzed the data from a nationally representative two-wave rolling cross-sectional survey of YYA in the United States, collected from 2014 to 2017 (baseline n = 10 642; follow-up n = 4001). Less than 5% of the participants ever scanned pro-smoking and anti-vaping information. Scanning anti-smoking information had significant positive relationships with support for all anti-smoking policies cross-sectionally, and this pattern was longitudinally significant in two anti-smoking policy contexts. Scanning pro-vaping information had significant negative associations with support for anti-vaping policies cross-sectionally, but not longitudinally. The lagged positive relationships between scanning anti-smoking information and support for anti-smoking regulations were stronger among YYA smokers than among YYA non-smokers, whereas evidence from adult data suggested the opposite pattern. The findings suggest that scanning information can affect YYA support for tobacco regulations. Future efforts are required to investigate mechanisms underlying the influences of scanned information on YYA support for tobacco regulations.

The Danish RESPEKT Campaign: Impact of a National Mass Media Campaign Aiming to Increase Treatment Seeking for Alcohol Use Disorders

Background: A minority of all with alcohol use disorders seek treatment. In Denmark, a media campaign, "RESPEKT," has been broadcast nationwide since 2015. The campaign is unique from an international perspective and aims to increase treatment-seeking. Similar interventions have, up until now, not been scientifically evaluated.Aim: To investigate campaign awareness, understanding, attitudes, and information-seeking pre- and post the campaign period. Also, associations to demographic factors and year of campaign will be investigated.Method: Study design: Repeated cross-sectional studyParticipants: Adults aged 30-70 years, in total n = 9169.Data: Pre- and post the campaign period between 2017 and 2020, an online questionnaire was administered by a market research company. The questionnaire covered demographic data, campaign awareness, understanding, attitudes, and information-seeking about treatment for alcohol use disorders. In addition, complete-case logistic regression was performed to model dichotomous outcomes, and odds ratios were calculated.Results: Campaign awareness varied between 8 and 40% over the different years. Understanding of the main message was high and received higher endorsements over the study period. A majority expressed positive attitudes toward the campaign and support for the main message regarding free treatment. However, very few self-reported seeking information about AUD treatment. Female sex was associated with higher awareness of the campaign, higher understanding and more positive attitudes toward the campaign.Conclusion: The campaign evoked positive attitudes and had an impact on increasing knowledge and changing attitudes. However, no effect on self-reported information seeking about treatment was found.

Beyond choice architecture: advancing the science of changing behaviour at scale

Addressing the global threats to population and planetary health requires changing many behaviours at scale. This demands consideration not only of the effect size of an intervention but also its reach - the proportion of the population exposed to the intervention.We propose that a relatively under-researched and generally poorly specified set of interventions involving changes to physical micro-environments - often referred to as Choice Architecture - has the potential to make a significant contribution to meeting this urgent challenge.Realising the potential of Choice Architecture interventions requires integration of basic - i.e. laboratory-based - and applied - i.e. field-based - research, generating interventions that can be delivered at scale alongside advancing theory. We illustrate this with examples to highlight the complementarity of laboratory and field studies informed by and in turn updating the results of evidence synthesis. The examples comprise two sets of interventions - changing the relative availability of products and changing their size - to reduce consumption of meat, energy from food and alcohol across populations.

Who would be targeted by increasing the legal age of sale of cigarettes from 18 to 21? A cross-sectional study exploring the number and characteristics of smokers in England

AIMS

To establish the number of smokers in England who would be targeted by increasing the age of sale of cigarettes from 18 to 21 years and to assess the smoking and socio-demographic profile of those smokers.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Nationally representative cross-sectional survey of adults in England conducted between January 2009 and July 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 219 720 adults.

MEASUREMENTS

All participants reported their current smoking status and socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. age, gender, home ownership, social grade and ethnicity). Smokers reported motivation to quit, urges to smoke and the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HIS). Weighted prevalence statistics were calculated. Multinomial regression and logistic regression were used to assess differences in smoking characteristics among smokers and socio-demographic characteristics relative to non-smokers.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of smoking between January 2009 and July 2019 was highest among those aged 21-30. In 2019, 15.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 12.8-18.8%] of 18-20-year-olds reported smoking, which is estimated to represent 364 000 individuals in England. Relative to smokers aged 18-20, older smokers (aged 21+) had a higher motivation to quit smoking [odds ratios (ORs) = 1.40-1.45 range] and higher nicotine dependency as measured by urges to smoke (ORs = 1.06-1.24 range) and HSI (ORs = 1.05-2.85 range). Compared with non-smokers aged 18-20, smokers in this age group had lower odds of being female (OR = 0.89) and higher odds of being of white ethnicity (OR = 2.78) and from social grades C1-E (lower social grades) compared with AB (higher social grades) (OR = 1.19-1.83 range).

CONCLUSION

Increasing the age of sale of cigarettes to 21 years in England would currently target approximately 364 000 lower dependent smokers from more disadvantaged backgrounds aged 18-20, who have less motivation to quit.

England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Whereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England.

DESIGN

Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths.

SETTING

England, 2000-2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative sample of population.

MEASUREMENTS

England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453-199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

An indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012-2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.

A digital behaviour change intervention to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services: the MyWay feasibility RCT

Background

Smoking remains a leading cause of illness and preventable death. NHS Stop Smoking Services increase quitting, but, as access is in decline, cost-effective interventions are needed that promote these services. StopApp™ (Coventry University, Coventry, UK) is designed to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Design

A two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial of StopApp (intervention) compared with standard promotion and referral to Stop Smoking Services (control) was conducted to assess recruitment, attrition and health equity of the design, alongside health economic and qualitative process evaluations.

Setting

Smokers recruited via general practitioners, community settings and social media.

Participants

Smokers aged ≥ 16 years were recruited in one local authority. Participants had to live or work within the local authority area, and there was a recruitment target of 120 participants.

Interventions

StopApp to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Main outcome measures

Participants completed baseline measures and follow-up at 2 months post randomisation entirely online. Objective data on the use of Stop Smoking Services were collected from participating Stop Smoking Services, and age groups, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic status in baseline recruits and follow-up completers/non-completers were assessed for equity.

Results

Eligible participants (n = 123) were recruited over 116 days, with good representation of lower socioeconomic status groups; black, Asian and minority ethnic groups; and all age groups. Demographic profiles of follow-up completers and non-completers were broadly similar. The attrition rate was 51.2%, with loss to follow-up lowest in the social media setting (n = 24/61; 39.3%) and highest in the general practitioner setting (n = 21/26; 80.8%). Most measures had < 5% missing data. Social media represented the most effective and cost-efficient recruitment method. In a future, definitive, multisite trial with recruitment driven by social media, our data suggest that recruiting ≥ 1500 smokers over 12 months is feasible. Service data showed that five bookings for the Stop Smoking Services were scheduled using StopApp, of which two did not attend. Challenges with data access were identified. A further five participants in the intervention arm self-reported booking and accessing Stop Smoking Services outside StopApp compared with two control arm participants. Event rate calculations for the intervention were 8% (Stop Smoking Services data), 17% (including self-reports) and 3.5% from control arm self-reports. A conservative effect size of 6% is estimated for a definitive full trial. A sample size of 840 participants would be required to detect an effect for the primary outcome measure of booking a Stop Smoking Services appointment in a full randomised controlled trial. The process evaluation found that participants were satisfied with the research team contact, study methods and provision of e-vouchers. Staff interviews revealed positive and negative experiences of the trial and suggestions for improvements, including encouraging smokers to take part.

Conclusion

This feasibility randomised controlled trial found that, with recruitment driven wholly or mainly by social media, it is possible to recruit and retain sufficient smokers to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of StopApp. The study methods and measures were found to be acceptable and equitable, but accessing Stop Smoking Services data about booking, attendance and quit dates was a challenge. A full trial may be feasible if service data are accessible. This will require careful planning with data controllers and a targeted social media campaign for recruitment. Changes to some study measures are needed to avoid missing data, including implementation of a more intensive follow-up data collection process.

Future work

We plan a full, definitive randomised controlled trial if the concerns around data access can be resolved, with adaptations to the recruitment and retention strategy.

Limitations

Our trial had high attrition and problems with collecting Stop Smoking Services data, which resulted in a reliance on self-reporting.

Trial registration

Research Registry: 3995. The trial was registered on 18 April 2018.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The impact of promoting revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines on alcohol consumption: interrupted time series analysis

Background

The UK’s Chief Medical Officers revised the UK alcohol drinking guidelines in 2016 to ≤ 14 units per week (1 unit = 10 ml/8 g ethanol) for men and women. Previously, the guideline stated that men should not regularly consume more than 3–4 units per day and women should not regularly consume more than 2–3 units per day.

Objective

To evaluate the impact of promoting revised UK drinking guidelines on alcohol consumption.

Design

Interrupted time series analysis of observational data.

Setting

England, March 2014 to October 2017.

Participants

A total of 74,388 adults aged ≥ 16 years living in private households in England.

Interventions

Promotion of revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome – alcohol consumption measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test – Consumption score. Secondary outcomes – average weekly consumption measured using graduated frequency, monthly alcohol consumption per capita adult (aged ≥ 16 years) derived from taxation data, monthly number of hospitalisations for alcohol poisoning (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision: T51.0, T51.1 and T51.9) and assault (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision: X85–Y09), and further measures of influences on behaviour change.

Data sources

The Alcohol Toolkit Study, a monthly cross-sectional survey and NHS Digital’s Hospital Episode Statistics.

Results

The revised drinking guidelines were not subject to large-scale promotion after the initial January 2016 announcement. An analysis of news reports found that mentions of the guidelines were mostly factual, and spiked during January 2016. In December 2015, the modelled average Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test – Consumption score was 2.719 out of 12.000 and was decreasing by 0.003 each month. After the January 2016 announcement, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test – Consumption scores did not decrease significantly (β = 0.001, 95% confidence interval –0.079 to 0.099). However, the trend did change significantly such that scores subsequently increased by 0.005 each month (β = 0.008, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.015). This change is equivalent to 0.5% of the population moving each month from drinking two or three times per week to drinking four or more times per week. Secondary analyses indicated that the change in trend began 6 months before the guideline announcement. The secondary outcome measures showed conflicting results, with no significant changes in consumption measures and no substantial changes in influences on behaviour change, but immediate reductions in hospitalisations of 7.3% for assaults and 15.4% for alcohol poisonings.

Limitations

The pre-intervention data collection period was only 2 months for influences on behaviour change and the graduated frequency measure. Our conclusions may be generalisable only to scenarios in which guidelines are announced but not promoted.

Conclusions

The announcement of revised UK low-risk drinking guidelines was not associated with clearly detectable changes in drinking behaviour. Observed reductions in alcohol-related hospitalisations are unlikely to be attributable to the revised guidelines. Promotion of the guidelines may have been prevented by opposition to the revised guidelines from the government's alcohol industry partners or because reduction in alcohol consumption was not a government priority or because practical obstacles prevented independent public health organisations from promoting the guidelines. Additional barriers to the effectiveness of guidelines may include low public understanding and a need for guidelines to engage more with how drinkers respond to and use them in practice.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15189062.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 8, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Trends in Attempts to Quit Smoking in England Since 2007: A Time Series Analysis of a Range of Population-Level Influences

AIM

To quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007-2017 in England.

METHODS

Data from 51 867 past-year smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study (a monthly cross-sectional survey of individuals aged 16+) were aggregated over an 11-year period. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modeling. The input series were: (1) prevalence of smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy; (2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco use; (3) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (4) mass media expenditure; (5) average expenditure on smoking; (6) characteristics in the form of (a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) proportion from lower social grades, and (d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and (7) implementation of tobacco control policies.

RESULTS

There was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted = 0.224%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.061 to 0.388). Quit attempts were positively associated with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted = 0.165%;95% CI 0.048 to 0.282) and negatively associated with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted = -1.351%; 95% CI -2.168 to -0.534). All other associations were nonsignificant.

CONCLUSION

Increases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact.

IMPLICATIONS

This study provides insight into how monthly changes in a wide range of population-level factors are associated with changes in quit attempts over an extended time period in a country with a strong tobacco control climate. The findings suggest a need for intervention or policy to stimulate quit attempts in older smokers. Otherwise, increases in the mean age of a smokers appears likely to undermine wider efforts to promote quit attempts in a population.

Association of prevalence of electronic cigarette use with smoking cessation and cigarette consumption in England: a time-series analysis between 2006 and 2017

AIMS

To provide up-to-date estimates of how changes in the prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use in England have been associated with changes in smoking cessation activities and daily cigarette consumption among smokers in England.

DESIGN

Time-series analysis of population trends.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants came from the Smoking Toolkit Study, which involves repeated, cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16 years and older in England. Data were aggregated on approximately 1200 past-year smokers each quarter (total n = 50 498) between 2007 and 2017.

MEASUREMENTS

Prevalence of e-cigarette use in current smokers was used to predict (a) prevalence of quit attempts among last-year smokers, (b) overall quit rates among last-year smokers and (c) mean cigarette consumption per day among current smokers. Prevalence of e-cigarette use during a quit attempt among last-year smokers was used to predict (a) quit success rate among last-year smokers and (b) overall quit rates among last-year smokers.

FINDINGS

Overall quit rates increased by 0.054% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.032-0.076, P < 0.001] and 0.050% (95% CI = 0.031-0.069, P < 0.001) respectively for every 1% increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use by smokers and e-cigarette use during a quit attempt. Quit success rates increased by 0.060% (95% CI = 0.043-0.078, P < 0.001) for every 1% increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use during a quit attempt. No clear evidence was found for an association between e-cigarette use and either prevalence of quit attempt (BAdj = 0.011, 95% CI = -0.046 to 0.069, P = 0.698) or cigarette consumption (BAdj = 0.019, 95% CI = -0.043 to 0.082, P = 0.542).

CONCLUSION

Changes in prevalence of e-cigarette use in England have been positively associated with the overall quit rates and quit success rates but not clearly associated with the prevalence of quit attempts and mean cigarette consumption.

Long-term evaluation of the rise in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England: a trend analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the long-term impact of the increase in age-of-sale of cigarettes from 16 to 18 in England in October 2007.

METHODS

Data were collected between November 2006 and September 2018 on 252,601 participants taking part in a nationally representative survey of adults aged 16+ in England, the Smoking Toolkit Study (STS). We assessed the impact of the introduction of the increase in age-of-sale on prevalence of ever smoking, current smoking, and quit attempts, among 16-17 year olds compared with 18-24 year olds.

RESULTS

Following the increase in age-of-sale, there was a declining trend in ever smoking that was greater among 16-17 year olds than 18-24 year olds (OR 0.990 versus OR 0.993; p = 0.019). Data on current smoking were insensitive to detect a difference between the age groups in a step-level change or change in trend following the increase in age-of-sale (Bayes factors (BFs) 0.75 and 2.10). Data on quit attempts were also insensitive to detect a change in trend (BF 0.71), and despite a greater step-level decline among those aged 16-17 (OR 0.311 versus OR 0.547, p = 0.025), quit attempts remained higher among those aged 16-17. Secondary analysis indicated that post-policy change, trends in current and ever smoking were linear for 16-17 year olds but quadratic for 18-24 year olds (slowing decline).

CONCLUSION

There is some evidence from an assessment of long-term trends in the Smoking Toolkit Study that the increase in legal age-of-sale of cigarettes in England was associated with a greater long-term decline in ever smoking among those aged 16-17 compared with those aged 18-24.

Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis

AIMS

To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level.

DESIGN

time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data were aggregated from 54 847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England.

MEASUREMENTS

The input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e-cigarettes, (b) NRT over-the-counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face-to-face behavioural support; (3) use of roll-your-own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio-economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate.

FINDINGS

The licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073-1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e-cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011-0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009-0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001-0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

In England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e-cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.

Understanding and using time series analyses in addiction research

Time series analyses are statistical methods used to assess trends in repeated measurements taken at regular intervals and their associations with other trends or events, taking account of the temporal structure of such data. Addiction research often involves assessing associations between trends in target variables (e.g. population cigarette smoking prevalence) and predictor variables (e.g. average price of a cigarette), known as a multiple time series design, or interventions or events (e.g. introduction of an indoor smoking ban), known as an interrupted time series design. There are many analytical tools available, each with its own strengths and limitations. This paper provides addiction researchers with an overview of many of the methods available (GLM, GLMM, GLS, GAMM, ARIMA, ARIMAX, VAR, SVAR, VECM) and guidance on when and how they should be used, sample size det ermination, reporting and interpretation. The aim is to provide increased clarity for researchers proposing to undertake these analyses concerning what is likely to be acceptable for publication in journals such as Addiction. Given the large number of choices that need to be made when setting up time series models, the guidance emphasizes the importance of pre-registering hypotheses and analysis plans before the analyses are undertaken.

'S'-shaped curve: modelling trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016

BACKGROUND

It is believed that declines in smoking prevalence naturally slow over time as the smoking population 'hardens' and that progress has come primarily from reducing uptake rather than increasing cessation. To address these issues, we undertook the first formal attempt to model the trajectory of smoking prevalence and indices of uptake and cessation in Great Britain from 1973 to 2016.

METHODS

Using data from the General Lifestyle Survey between 1973 and 2008, the Integrated Household Survey between 2009 and 2014 and the Annual Population Survey between 2015 and 2016, this study modelled year-on-year changes in smoking prevalence, ever-smoking in 18-24-year-olds as an index of uptake, and quit ratios as an index of cessation.

RESULTS

For all three outcomes, changes over time were best fitted by what may be broadly characterised as 'S'-shaped curves: segmented functions characterised by initial rapid progress, a slowing or reversal, then renewed progress. Smoking prevalence in Great Britain showed a decelerating decline over time between 1973 and 2000, but then, after the introduction of the National 'Smoking Kills' tobacco control plan, the decline accelerated again and has remained nearly linear at -0.67 percentage points per year. Ever-smoking showed a decelerating decline which eventually ceased and began increasing around 1994 but then declined again after 2000. Quit ratios rose rapidly then slowed and then accelerated around 2000 and again more recently in 2013.

CONCLUSION

Long-term trends in smoking prevalence, uptake and cessation have followed a broadly 'S'-shaped trend suggesting that they are responsive to major tobacco control initiatives. The decline in prevalence has resulted both from reductions in uptake and increases in cessation.

Tobacco control in Europe: A review of campaign strategies for teenagers and adults

BACKGROUND

In Europe the prevalence of tobacco use in adults and adolescents is among the highest within the WHO regions. Many resources have been allocated toward the prevention and support for smoking cessation. However, the implemented strategies in Europe have not been systematically evaluated.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out to identify studies that analyzed the efficacy of the main smoking-prevention campaigns conducted in Europe. PRISMA guidelines were used to systematically review and extract data.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies meeting inclusion criteria were identified. Each article was thoroughly reviewed and evaluated for quality, design, and methodology, with reference to the main areas of intervention: school (8); mass media (4) and technological tools (4); smoke-free environments (3); packaging (2) and taxes (3). The school programmes focusing on building skills to recognize and resist negative influences, the intensive use of media and technological equipments, health warnings and excise taxes have showed to be effective tools in reducing the tobacco use.

CONCLUSIONS

Intervention programmes to implement tobacco control policies and smoking cessation are active in many European countries. However, these programmes need to be constantly sustained to achieve a long term efficacy.

Accessing National Health Service Stop Smoking Services in the UK: a COM-B analysis of barriers and facilitators perceived by smokers, ex-smokers and stop smoking advisors

OBJECTIVE

Smokers who access free National Health Service (NHS) Stop Smoking Services (SSS) in the UK are four times more likely to stop smoking, yet uptake of the services has been in decline in recent years. Evidence was collated to explore the beliefs of smokers, ex-smokers and Stop Smoking Advisors (SSAs) about SSS and the barriers and facilitators to access.

STUDY DESIGN

Mixed-methods design including i) a search of the literature; ii) a cross-sectional online questionnaire completed by 38 smokers and ex-smokers; and iii) semistructured interviews with 5 SSAs.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Prospero and the NIHR Portfolio were searched in October 2017 to identify relevant studies. Smokers and ex-smokers were recruited to the online questionnaire via Public Health websites and social media in Warwickshire. SSAs identified via Public Health Warwickshire were invited to take part in an interview conducted over the telephone. Findings were collated and analysed using the COM-B ('Capability', 'Opportunity', 'Motivation' and 'Behaviour') model framework.

RESULTS

A range of practical and psychological or belief-based barriers and facilitators to accessing SSS were identified within all the components of the COM-B model, aside from physical capability, for example; 'Psychological capability', such as lack of understanding about what the service offers; 'Reflective motivation', such as lack of confidence in service efficacy; and 'Social opportunity', such as recommendations from healthcare professionals to attend. Suggestions and consideration on how future tobacco control intervention and public health messages can address these components are reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health interventions and campaigns may benefit from focussing on addressing the well-known perceived barriers and facilitators smokers experience, in particular focussing on the components of the COM-B that have been identified as being important to increase the uptake of SSS.

Using Facebook to reduce smoking among Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: a participatory grounded action study

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence for the effectiveness of social media to promote healthy behaviour among Indigenous Australians, including to reduce smoking. Social media has significant potential to stimulate interpersonal influence to quit, however an important knowledge gap is how and what content people choose to share with friends and family. This paper explores the decision making processes of community members for sharing tobacco control content with family and friends on Facebook.

METHODS

Community researchers were paid to choose and share at least one tobacco control post per week for a period of 6 months on their personal Facebook page. They documented reasons for their choices, which were coded and analysed to determine features of messages most likely to be shared, and salient considerations in the decision-making process.

RESULTS

Posts which are child-focused, feature Indigenous content, and are perceived as practical, relevant and credible, with a direct and unambiguous message, were most likely to be shared. Posts which included disgusting imagery about health impacts, were focused on the environment, or were ambiguous or sarcastic were less likely to be shared. Decisions were also based on whether content was perceived to contain new information, to be helpful for their friends, and to be consistent with the participant's online identity, as well as the perceived sensitivity of content. The potential impact on expensive mobile data for videos was also a factor.

CONCLUSIONS

When designing tobacco control messages to be shared on social media, health promoters should take into account how information will align with positive self-image and can contribute to social capital among the intended audience, and generate interpersonal engagement. Content should complement, rather than attempt to replicate, some message features that are effective on traditional broadcast media. This study shows the potential for health services to incorporate a strategy of using paid local social media 'champions' or 'ambassadors' to disseminate tobacco control messages on Facebook through community networks.

What do cost-effective health behaviour-change interventions contain? A comparison of six domains

OBJECTIVES

To help implement behaviour change interventions (BCIs) in practice it is important to be able to characterize their key components. This study compared broad features of cost-effective BCIs that addressed smoking, diet, physical activity, alcohol and sexual health. It also assessed the association of these with the magnitude of the cost-effectiveness estimates.

METHODS

A content analysis of 79 interventions based on 338 intervention descriptions was conducted, using the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) to classify intervention content in terms of intervention functions, and the BCT taxonomy to identify and categorise component Behaviour Change Techniques (BCT). Regression analysis identified the association of these with upper (pessimistic) and lower (optimistic) cost-effectiveness estimates.

RESULTS

The most and least common functions and BCT clusters were education (82.3%) and shaping knowledge (79.7%), and coercion (3.8%) and covert learning (2.5%). Smoking interventions contained the largest ([Formula: see text] = 12) number of BCTs and were most cost-effective. Several other factors were associated with worse (coercionfunction βupper = 36551.24; shaping knowledgeBCT βlower = 2427.78; comparison of outcomesBCT βupper = 9067.32; repetition and substitutionBCT βupper = 7172.47) and better (modellingfunction βlower = -2905.3; environmental restructuringfunction βupper = -8646.28; reward and threatBCT βupper = -5577.59) cost-effectiveness (p<0.05).

DISCUSSION

Cost-effective BCIs rely heavily on education with smoking interventions exhibiting the most comprehensive range of BCTs. Providing an example to aspire to, restructuring the environment and rewarding positive behaviour may be associated with greater cost-effectiveness.

Tailored digital behaviour change intervention with e-referral system to increase attendance at NHS stop smoking services (the MyWay project): study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility trial

INTRODUCTION

In the UK, smokers who use stop smoking services (SSSs) are four times more likely to stop smoking than smokers who do not. Attendance has declined, warranting the development of interventions to address this. StopApp is a novel, brief online behaviour change intervention designed to address common barriers to SSS attendance. It links to widely commissioned service management software that enables instant appointment booking at a user's location and time of choice.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A two-arm parallel group, individual participant feasibility randomised controlled trial of StopApp (intervention) compared with the standard promotion of and referral to SSSs (control). The study includes a nested qualitative process evaluation to assess the acceptability of the research processes, with a subsample of participants. Smokers aged over 16 years will be recruited via three routes: General Practice (GP), community settings and online. After consenting and the collection of baseline data, participants will be randomised to control or intervention groups. Participants in the intervention group receive a link to StopApp and those in the control group receive standard web-based information about the SSSs. All participants are told they can book a SSS appointment but are under no obligation to do so. Online follow-up 2 months post randomisation includes data on SSS use and carbon monoxide verified 4-week quit rates. The study aims to recruit 162 smokers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been granted by the West Midlands-Edgbaston NHS Research Ethics Committee. The findings will be reported in conferences and peer-reviewed publications; and will be used to design the parameters necessary for a definitive trial to ascertain the effectiveness of StopApp at increasing booking and attendance at SSSs compared with existing methods for encouraging uptake.

Associations between tobacco control mass media campaign expenditure and smoking prevalence and quitting in England: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

It has been established that mass media campaigns can increase smoking cessation rates, but there is little direct evidence estimating associations between government expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns and smoking cessation. This study assessed the association over 8 years between mass media expenditure in England and quit attempts, smoking cessation and smoking prevalence.

METHODS

Autoregressive integrated moving average modelling with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) was applied to monthly estimates from the Smoking Toolkit Study between June 2008 and February 2016. We assessed the association between the trends in mass media expenditure and (1) quit attempts in the last two months, (2) quit success among those who attempted to quit and (3) smoking prevalence. Analyses were adjusted for trends in weekly spending on tobacco by smokers, tobacco control policies and the use of established aids to cessation.

RESULTS

Monthly spending on mass media campaigns ranged from nothing to £2.4 million, with a mean of £465 054. An increase in mass media expenditure of 10% of the monthly average was associated with a 0.51% increase (of the average) in success rates of quit attempts (95% CI 0.10% to 0.91%, p=0.014). No clear association was detected between changes in mass media expenditure and changes in quit attempt prevalence (β=-0.03, 95% CI -2.05% to 2.00%, p=0.979) or smoking prevalence (β=-0.03, 95% CI -0.09% to 0.03%, p=0.299).

CONCLUSION

Between 2008 and 2016, higher monthly expenditure on tobacco control mass media campaigns in England was associated with higher quit success rates.

Is prevalence of e-cigarette and nicotine replacement therapy use among smokers associated with average cigarette consumption in England? A time-series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Many smokers use e-cigarettes and licensed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), often in an attempt to reduce their cigarette consumption. We estimated how far changes in prevalence of e-cigarette and NRT use while smoking were accompanied by changes in cigarette consumption at the population level.

DESIGN

Repeated representative cross-sectional population surveys of adults aged 16+ years in England.

METHODS

We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling of monthly data between 2006 and 2016 from the Smoking Toolkit Study. Prevalence of e-cigarette use and NRT use in current smokers, and specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, were input variables. Mean daily cigarette consumption was the dependent variable. Analyses involved adjustment for mass media expenditure and tobacco-control policies.

RESULTS

No statistically significant associations were found between changes in use of e-cigarettes (β -0.012, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.002) or NRT (β 0.015, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.055) while smoking and daily cigarette consumption. Neither did we find clear evidence for an association between e-cigarette use (β -0.010, 95% CI -0.025 to 0.005 and β 0.011, 95%-0.027 to 0.004) or NRT use (β 0.006, 95%-0.030 to 0.043 and β 0.022, 95%-0.020 to 0.063) specifically for smoking reduction and temporary abstinence, respectively, and changes in daily cigarette consumption.

CONCLUSION

If use of e-cigarettes and licensed NRT while smoking acted to reduce cigarette consumption in England between 2006 and 2016, the effect was likely very small at a population level.

Taking the pressure off the spring: the case of rebounding smoking rates when antitobacco campaigns ceased

OBJECTIVE

Smoking rates have been compared with a spring, requiring continuous downward pressure against protobacco forces, rather than a screw, which once driven down stays down. Quality antitobacco mass media campaigns put downward pressure on smoking rates. The suspension of a major Australian state campaign provided a natural experiment to assess effects on smoking. Furthermore, we document the positive influence of robust monitoring and mature advocacy on the political decision to reinstate funding. We also document the misuse by industry of South Australian smoking data from the period between Australia's implementation and subsequent evaluation of plain packaging.

METHODS

A time series analysis was used to examine monthly smoking prevalence trends at each of four intervention points: (A) commencement of high-intensity mass media campaign (August 2010); (B) introduction of plain packaging (December 2012), (C) defunding of campaign (July 2013); and (D) reinstatement of moderate-intensity campaign (July 2014).

FINDINGS

The suspension of the antitobacco campaign was disruptive to achieving smoking prevalence targets. There was an absence of a downward monthly smoking prevalence trajectory during the non-campaign period. Moreover, there was a significant decline in smoking prevalence during the period of high-intensity advertising, which continued after the introduction of plain packaging laws, and at the recommencement of campaign activity.

CONCLUSIONS

While the observed declines in smoking prevalence are likely due to a combination of interventions and cannot be attributed exclusively to antitobacco advertising, the results reinforce the political decision to reinstate the campaign and demonstrate the need for maintained investment to keep downward pressure on smoking rates.

The impact of TV mass media campaigns on calls to a National Quitline and the use of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy: a structural vector autoregression analysis

AIMS

To estimate (1) the immediate impact; (2) the cumulative impact; and (3) the duration of impact of Scottish tobacco control TV mass media campaigns (MMCs) on smoking cessation activity, as measured by calls to Smokeline and the volume of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT).

DESIGN

Multivariate time-series analysis using secondary data on population level measures of exposure to TV MMCs broadcast and smoking cessation activity between 2003 and 2012.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Population of Scotland.

MEASUREMENTS

Adult television viewer ratings (TVRs) as a measure of exposure to Scottish mass media campaigns in the adult population; monthly calls to NHS Smokeline; and the monthly volume of prescribed NRT as measured by gross ingredient costs (GIC).

FINDINGS

Tobacco control TVRs were associated with an increase in calls to Smokeline but not an increase in the volume of prescribed NRT. A 1 standard deviation (SD) increase of 194 tobacco control TVRs led to an immediate and significant increase of 385.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 171.0, 600.7] calls to Smokeline (unadjusted model) within 1 month. When adjusted for seasonality the impact was reduced, but the increase in calls remained significant (226.3 calls, 95% CI = 37.3, 415.3). The cumulative impact on Smokeline calls remained significant for 6 months after broadcast in the unadjusted model and 18 months in the adjusted model. However, an increase in tobacco control TVRs of 194 failed to have a significant impact on the GIC of prescribed NRT in either the unadjusted (£1361.4, 95% CI = -£9138.0, £11860.9) or adjusted (£6297.1, 95% CI = -£2587.8, £15182.1) models.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco control television mass media campaigns broadcast in Scotland between 2003 and 2012 were effective in triggering calls to Smokeline, but did not increase significantly the use of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy by adult smokers. The impact on calls to Smokeline occurred immediately within 1 month of broadcast and was sustained for at least 6 months.

Barriers and facilitators to smoking cessation in a cancer context: A qualitative study of patient, family and professional views

Background

Continued smoking after cancer adversely affects quality of life and survival, but one fifth of cancer survivors still smoke. Despite its demands, cancer presents an opportunity for positive behaviour change. Smoking often occurs in social groups, therefore interventions which target families and individuals may be more successful. This qualitative study explored patients, family members and health professionals’ views and experiences of smoking and smoking cessation after cancer, in order to inform future interventions.

Methods

In-depth qualitative interviews (n = 67) with 29 patients, 14 family members and 24 health professionals. Data were analysed using the ‘Framework’ method.

Results

Few patients and family members had used National Health Service (NHS) smoking cessation services and more than half still smoked. Most recalled little ‘smoking-related’ discussion with clinicians but were receptive to talking openly. Clinicians revealed several barriers to discussion. Participants’ continued smoking was explained by the stress of diagnosis; desire to maintain personal control; and lack of connection between smoking, cancer and health.

Conclusions

A range of barriers to smoking cessation exist for patients and family members. These are insufficiently assessed and considered by clinicians. Interventions must be more effectively integrated into routine practice.

Impact on smoking of England's 2012 partial tobacco point of sale display ban: a repeated cross-sectional national study

BACKGROUND

A partial tobacco point of sale (PoS) display ban was introduced in large shops (>280 m2 floor area) in England on 6 April 2012. The aim of this study was to assess the medium-term effects of the partial tobacco PoS display ban on smoking in England.

METHODS

Data were used from 129 957 respondents participating in monthly, cross-sectional household surveys of representative samples of the English adult population aged 18+ years from January 2009 to February 2015. Interrupted-time series regression models assessed step changes in the level of current smoking and cigarette consumption in smokers and changes in the trends postban compared with preban. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic variables and e-cigarette use, seasonality and autocorrelation. Potential confounding by cigarette price was accounted for by time, as price was almost perfectly correlated with time.

RESULTS

Following the display ban, there was no immediate step level change in smoking (-3.69% change, 95% CI -7.94 to 0.75, p=0.102) or in cigarette consumption (β -0.183, 95% CI -0.602 to 0.236). There was a significantly steeper decline in smoking post display ban (-0.46% change, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.20, p=0.001). This effect was demonstrated by respondents in manual occupations (-0.62% change, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.20, p=0.001), but not for those in non-manual occupations (-0.42, 95% CI -0.90 to 0.06, p=0.084). Cigarette consumption declined preban period (β -0.486, 95% CI -0.633 to -0.339, p<0.001), but no significant change in cigarette consumption trend was observed (β 0.019, 95% CI -0.006 to 0.042, p=0.131).

CONCLUSIONS

The partial tobacco PoS display ban introduced in England in April 2012 did not lead to an immediate decline in smoking, but was followed by a decline in the trend of smoking prevalence that could not be accounted for by seasonal factors, e-cigarette use or price changes.

A gateway to more productive research on e-cigarettes? Commentary on a comprehensive framework for evaluating public health impact

Commentary to: A framework for evaluating the public health impact of e-cigarettes and other vaporized nicotine products

Update on Performance in Tobacco Control: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of Tobacco Control Policy and the US Adult Smoking Rate, 2011-2013

CONTEXT

Tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable death in the United States. States and municipalities have instituted a variety of tobacco control measures (TCMs) to address the significant impact tobacco use has on population health. The American Lung Association annually grades state performance of tobacco control using the State of Tobacco Control grading framework.

OBJECTIVE

To gain an updated understanding of how recent efforts in tobacco control have impacted tobacco use across the United States, using yearly State of Tobacco Control TCM assessments.

DESIGN

The independent TCM variables of smoke-free air score, cessation score, excise tax, and percentage of recommended funding were selected from the American Lung Association State of Tobacco Control reports. Predictors of adult smoking rates were determined by a mixed-effects model.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

The 50 US states and District of Columbia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Adult smoking rate in each state from 2011 to 2013.

RESULTS

The average adult smoking rate decreased significantly from 2011 to 2013 (21.3% [SD: 3.5] to 19.3% [SD: 3.5], P = .016). All forms of TCMs varied widely in implementation levels across states. Excise taxes (β = -.812, P = .006) and smoke-free air regulations (β = -.057, P = .008) were significant, negative predictors of adult smoking. Cessation services (β = .015, P = .46) did not have a measurable effect on adult smoking.

CONCLUSION

Tobacco control measures with the strongest influence on adult smoking include the state excise tax and state smoke-free air regulations. The lack of robust funding for tobacco cessation services across the majority of US states highlights an important shortfall in current tobacco control policy.

StopApp: Using the Behaviour Change Wheel to Develop an App to Increase Uptake and Attendance at NHS Stop Smoking Services

Smokers who attend NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSS) are four times more likely to stop smoking; however, uptake has been in decline. We report the development of an intervention designed to increase uptake of SSS, from a more motivated self-selected sample of smokers. In Phase 1 we collected data to explore the barriers and facilitators to people using SSS. In Phase 2, data from extant literature and Phase 1 were subject to behavioural analysis, as outlined by the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework. Relevant Behaviour Change Techniques (BCTs) were identified in order to address these, informing the content of the StopApp intervention. In Phase 3 we assessed the acceptability of the StopApp. Smokers and ex-smokers identified a number of barriers to attending SSS, including a lack of knowledge about what happens at SSS (Capability); the belief that SSS is not easy to access (Opportunity); that there would be ’scare tactics’ or ‘nagging’; and not knowing anyone who had been and successfully quit (Motivation). The ‘StopApp’ is in development and will link in with the commissioned SSS booking system. Examples of the content and functionality of the app are outlined. The next phase will involve a full trial to test effectiveness.

An Online Documentary Film to Motivate Quit Attempts Among Smokers in the General Population (4Weeks2Freedom): A Randomized Controlled Trial

INTRODUCTION

Online motivational films to promote quit attempts could encourage large numbers of smokers to stop at low unit cost. We evaluated an online film documenting the experiences of smokers who recorded the first month of their successful attempts to quit (4Weeks2Freedom). The film was designed to boost motivation and self-efficacy and provide role-models to promote ex-smoker identities.

METHODS

This was a randomized trial with individual assignment to a no-intervention control (n = 1016), an informational film (n = 1004), or 4Weeks2Freedom (n = 999). The development of 4Weeks2Freedom was informed by PRIME theory and focus-group testing with smokers. The 90-minute film was available online to view in one sitting or as chapters over 4 weeks to coincide with the progress of an attempt. The primary outcome was a quit attempt in the 4 weeks between assignment and study endpoint by intent-to-treat.

RESULTS

Participants smoked a mean of 13 cigarettes per day and 31% reported not wanting to stop. At follow-up, 55% reported viewing the informational control film and 56% viewing 4Weeks2Freedom. There was no detectable effect compared with the no-intervention control (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.81 to 1.21, 24.3% vs. 24.5%) or informational control film (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.80 to 1.21, 24.3% vs. 24.6%). Calculation of Bayes factors ruled out insensitive data and indicated the intervention was no more effective than either the no-intervention control (Bayes factor = 0.20) or informational control film (Bayes factor = 0.27). The pattern of results was unchanged in sensitivity analyses that examined the effect among only those who viewed the films.

CONCLUSION

The online documentary film (4Weeks2Freedom) designed to boost motivation and self-efficacy and to promote ex-smoker identity does not appear to prompt quit attempts among smokers.

IMPLICATIONS

This trial found that an online documentary film (4Weeks2Freedom) designed to boost motivation and self-efficacy and to promote ex-smoker identity was ineffective in prompting quit attempts among an unselected panel of smokers from the UK. This approach appears unpromising as a means of raising the rate at which smokers attempt to quit and is a low priority for future research.

Identifying effective healthy weight and lifestyle advertisements: Focus groups with Australian adults

This study explored adult's attitudes and reactions to a range of television advertisements (ads) promoting healthy weight, physical activity and healthy eating. Twenty-four focus groups (N = 179) were conducted in metropolitan and regional areas of the Australian states of Victoria, New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland, with participants segmented by sex, education (no tertiary, at least some tertiary) and life stage (young adults, parents). Each group was assigned to one of the three advertising streams - Weight, Activity, or Nutrition - where responses to five different ads were explored using semi-structured, moderator-led discussions. Discussion transcripts were qualitatively content analysed using a conventional approach. Four main themes were identified in participants' discussions about the ads' main messages - (i) Why is it a problem? (ii) Who is it a problem for? (iii) What should I do about it? (iv) How do I make the changes? Reactions varied by demographic factors and current weight and lifestyle status. Participants furthest from achieving public health recommendations for weight, diet and activity were motivated by 'what' and 'how' ads involving gentle persuasion and helpful hints. Participants who were closer to meeting these recommendations were motivated by 'why' ads featuring more graphic and emotive content and new information. Findings suggest a strategic approach is important for the development of public health ads promoting healthy weight and lifestyle, with consideration given to the specific communication goals and who the target audience is. This should help ensure an appropriate message is delivered to priority population subgroups in the most informative and motivating manner.

The effects of maximising the UK's tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study

Background

Smoking is more than twice as common among the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups in England compared to the most affluent and is a major contributor to health-related inequalities. The United Kingdom (UK) has comprehensive smoking policies in place: regular tax increases; public information campaigns; on-pack pictorial health warnings; advertising bans; cessation; and smoke-free areas. This is confirmed from its high Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) score, an expert-developed instrument for assessing the strength of tobacco control policies. However, room remains for improvement in tobacco control policies.

Our aim was to evaluate the cumulative effect on smoking prevalence of improving all TCS components in England, stratified by socioeconomic circumstance.

Methods

Effect sizes and socioeconomic gradients for all six types of smoking policy in the UK setting were adapted from systematic reviews, or if not available, from primary studies.

We used the IMPACT Policy Model to link predicted changes in smoking prevalence to changes in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality for ages 35–74. Health outcomes with a time horizon of 2025 were stratified by quintiles of socioeconomic circumstance.

Results

The model estimated that improving all smoking policies to achieve a maximum score on the TCS might reduce smoking prevalence in England by 3 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1–4 %), from 20 to 17 % in absolute terms, or by 15 % in relative terms (95 % CI: 7–21 %). The most deprived quintile would benefit more, with absolute reductions from 31 to 25 %, or a 6 % reduction (95 % CI: 2–7 %).

There would be some 3300 (95 % CI: 2200–4700) fewer premature CHD deaths between 2015–2025, a 2 % (95 % CI: 1.4–2.9 %) reduction. The most disadvantaged quintile would benefit more, reducing absolute inequality of CHD mortality by about 4 % (95 % CI: 3–9 %).

Conclusions

Further, feasible improvements in tobacco control policy could substantially improve population health, and reduce health-related inequalities in England.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2962-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Recall of anti-tobacco advertisements and effects on quitting behavior: results from the California smokers cohort

OBJECTIVES

We assessed whether an anti-tobacco television advertisement called "Stages," which depicted a woman giving a brief emotional narrative of her experiences with tobacco use, would be recalled more often and have a greater effect on smoking cessation than 3 other advertisements with different intended themes.

METHODS

Our data were derived from a sample of 2596 California adult smokers. We used multivariable log-binomial and modified Poisson regression models to calculate respondents' probability of quitting as a result of advertisement recall.

RESULTS

More respondents recalled the "Stages" ad (58.5%) than the 3 other ads (23.1%, 23.4%, and 25.6%; P<.001). Respondents who recalled "Stages" at baseline had a higher probability than those who did not recall the ad of making a quit attempt between baseline and follow-up (adjusted risk ratio [RR]=1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.03, 1.34) and a higher probability of being in a period of smoking abstinence for at least a month at follow-up (adjusted RR=1.55; 95% CI=1.02, 2.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-tobacco television advertisements that depict visceral and personal messages may be recalled by a larger percentage of smokers and may have a greater impact on smoking cessation than other types of advertisements.

The impact of a state-sponsored mass media campaign on use of telephone quitline and web-based cessation services

INTRODUCTION

Most US smokers do not use evidence-based interventions as part of their quit attempts. Quitlines and Web-based treatments may contribute to reductions in population-level tobacco use if successfully promoted. Currently, few states implement sustained media campaigns to promote services and increase adult smoking cessation. This study examines the effects of Florida's tobacco cessation media campaign and a nationally funded media campaign on telephone quitline and Web-based registrations for cessation services from November 2010 through September 2013.

METHODS

We conducted multivariable analyses of weekly media-market-level target rating points (TRPs) and weekly registrations for cessation services through the Florida Quitline (1-877-U-CAN-NOW) or its Web-based cessation service, Web Coach (www.quitnow.net/florida).

RESULTS

During 35 months, 141,221 tobacco users registered for cessation services through the Florida Quitline, and 53,513 registered through Web Coach. An increase in 100 weekly TRPs was associated with an increase of 7 weekly Florida Quitline registrants (β = 6.8, P < .001) and 2 Web Coach registrants (β = 1.7, P = .003) in an average media market. An increase in TRPs affected registrants from multiple demographic subgroups similarly. When state and national media campaigns aired simultaneously, approximately one-fifth of Florida's Quitline registrants came from the nationally advertised portal (1-800-QUIT-NOW).

CONCLUSION

Sustained, state-sponsored media can increase the number of registrants to telephone quitlines and Web-based cessation services. Federally funded media campaigns can further increase the reach of state-sponsored cessation services.