Conservation in a Wicked Complex World; Challenges and Solutions

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Toward solving the global green-green dilemma between wind energy production and bat conservation

Wind energy production is growing rapidly worldwide in an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, wind energy production is not environmentally neutral. Negative impacts on volant animals, such as bats, include fatalities at turbines and habitat loss due to land-use change and displacement. Siting turbines away from ecologically sensitive areas and implementing measures to reduce fatalities are critical to protecting bat populations. Restricting turbine operations during periods of high bat activity is the most effective form of mitigation currently available to reduce fatalities. Compensating for habitat loss and offsetting mortality are not often practiced, because meaningful offsets are lacking. Legal frameworks to prevent or mitigate the negative impacts of wind energy on bats are absent in most countries, especially in emerging markets. Therefore, governments and lending institutions are key in reconciling wind energy production with biodiversity goals by requiring sufficient environmental standards for wind energy projects.

Monitoring for the adaptive management of rivers

Monitoring for adaptive management (AM) involves collection of data with the aim of reducing uncertainty about links between human pressures (e.g. water abstraction from rivers), consequent stressors (e.g. low river flows) and environmental state (e.g. biodiversity). 'Surveillance monitoring' involves documenting trends in state, without the aim of understanding relationships between state, stressors, and pressures. Critics have highlighted that surveillance monitoring dominates monitoring investments but is not supporting AM. Decision-makers continue to be disappointed by monitoring data that are unsuitable for AM, yet designers of monitoring programs tend to make decisions that reinforce rather than reimagine the status quo. We argue that a structured, collaborative approach to objective-setting is required to break the status quo. We collaborated with regional management authorities to develop monitoring objectives and implementation strategies to support AM of New Zealand's rivers. Our collaborative approach discouraged 'failure fearing' and encouraged reimagining 'what could be' as opposed to 'what is.' Seventeen monitoring objectives were identified based on the AM requirements of national policy and regional authorities. Several objectives-particularly those arising from national policy-stretch the limits of what environmental science can currently provide. There were also strong trade-offs among objectives. We offer practical implementation strategies for overcoming the technical challenges of, and reducing trade-offs among, monitoring objectives. These strategies point to a monitoring program that contrasts strongly with one aimed at surveillance. Monitoring for AM is more complex than monitoring for surveillance, so strong leadership is required for successful implementation.

Wicked Problems, Novel Solutions: Nepalese Elephant Tourism and Conservation

Endangered Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) find themselves at the center of debates involving politics, land use, human-wildlife conflict, and environmental justice. The intensity of such debates has led scholars to label conservation challenges as wicked problems with profound implications on local and global practice. In elephant range states such as Nepal, these debates are made more complex through human 'ownership' of endangered individuals for use in tourism, worship, or co-work. Human perspectives on the ethics of using animals for tourism are changing, even in areas heavily reliant on the tourism industry for survival. These debates become inflamed when non-residents take on adversarial positions despite an acceptance of the 'ownership' or 'use' of endangered individuals among local communities. Novel approaches are needed if there is any hope of establishing a common ground upon which to build relationships which may benefit community members, international interests, and endangered individuals.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Restoring the orangutan in a Whole- or Half-Earth context

Various global-scale proposals exist to reduce the loss of biological diversity. These include the Half-Earth and Whole-Earth visions that respectively seek to set aside half the planet for wildlife conservation or to diversify conservation practices fundamentally and change the economic systems that determine environmental harm. Here we assess these visions in the specific context of Bornean orangutans Pongo pygmaeus and their conservation. Using an expert-led process we explored three scenarios over a 10-year time frame: continuation of Current Conditions, a Half-Earth approach and a Whole-Earth approach. In addition, we examined a 100-year population recovery scenario assuming 0% offtake of Bornean orangutans. Current Conditions were predicted to result in a population c. 73% of its current size by 2032. Half-Earth was judged comparatively easy to achieve and predicted to result in an orangutan population of c. 87% of its current size by 2032. Whole-Earth was anticipated to lead to greater forest loss and ape killing, resulting in a prediction of c. 44% of the current orangutan population for 2032. Finally, under the recovery scenario, populations could be c. 148% of their current size by 2122. Although we acknowledge uncertainties in all of these predictions, we conclude that the Half-Earth and Whole-Earth visions operate along different timelines, with the implementation of Whole-Earth requiring too much time to benefit orangutans. None of the theorized proposals provided a complete solution, so drawing elements from each will be required. We provide recommendations for equitable outcomes.

Co-producing theory of change to operationalize integrated landscape approaches

Integrated landscape approaches that engage diverse stakeholder groups in landscape governance are increasingly promoted to address linked social-ecological challenges in tropical landscapes. Recent research suggests that a transdisciplinary approach to landscape management can help identify common research needs, enhance knowledge co-production, guide evidence-based policy development, and harmonize cross-sectorial integration. Meanwhile, guiding principles for landscape approaches suggest that identifying common concerns and negotiating a process of change are fundamental to implementation and evaluation efforts. As such, the use of decision support tools such as theory of change models that build ordered sequences of actions towards a desired, and agreed, future state are increasingly advocated. However, the application of the theory of change concept to integrated landscape approaches is limited thus far, particularly within the scientific literature. Here, we address this gap by applying the principles of landscape approaches and knowledge co-production to co-produce a theory of change to address current unsustainable landscape management and associated conflicts in the Kalomo Hills Local Forest Reserve No. P.13 (KFR13) of Zambia. The participatory process engaged a diverse range of stakeholders including village head people, local and international researchers, district councillors, and civil society representatives amongst others. Several pathways, actions, and interventions were developed around the themes of deforestation, biodiversity and wildlife conservation, socio-economic development, access rights, and law enforcement. To make the theory of change actionable, participants identified a need for enhanced cross-sector and multi-level communication, capacity development, and improved governance, while a lack of commitment towards coordinated knowledge exchange and access to information along with poor policy formulation and weak enforcement of rules were among potential impediments to action. Use of theory of change can both inform evidence-based policy design (by revealing place-based challenges and proposing solutions) and support policy mechanisms that promote integration between state and non-state actors (by clarifying actor rights, roles and responsibilities). Co-developing a theory of change for integrated landscape management is inherently context specific, but the process and outcomes of this study should hold relevance across a range of contexts faced with sustainability challenges related to reconciling both conservation and development objectives.

Core Competencies for Training Conservation Paleobiology Students in a Wicked World

Despite the promise conservation paleobiology holds for using geohistorical data and insights to solve conservation problems, training in the field typically does not equip students to be competent environmental problem solvers. The intention of this perspective piece is to start a conversation about how we might train conservation paleobiology students better, focusing on the competencies needed to promote deep engagement with “wicked” conservation problems that are difficult to solve. Ongoing conversations regarding design of academic programs in sustainability, a field allied with conservation science, can inform our discussion. The sustainability literature has defined an interrelated set of “core competencies” that go beyond general academic competencies to enable real-world sustainability problem solving: systems thinking, temporal thinking, normative thinking, strategic thinking, and interpersonal competence. Conservation paleobiology is usually taught within geology programs, where students are exposed to systems thinking and temporal thinking. However, the remaining competencies typically are absent or insufficiently developed. To infuse these competencies into conservation paleobiology curricula, we recommend: (1) enhancing connections with sustainability programs and encouraging a more cross-disciplinary approach to training; (2) developing a “menu” of concepts and methodologies for each competence from which to choose; and (3) recognizing that different skills are appropriate at different levels of education and experience. The proposed competency-based framework serves as a shared reference that can be used to develop pedagogies to better prepare conservation paleobiology students to navigate the wicked conservation challenges of our time.

Guidelines to Facilitate Human-Wildlife Interactions in Conservation Translocations

Species reintroductions and translocations are widely used management interventions to restore locally extinct or augment severely depleted species. In such projects, the human dimension issues that influence the success of these conservation interventions are encountered at five different stages of the project life cycle: (1) planning, (2) initiation, (3) implementation, (4) ending stage, and (5) post-exit. Overlooking or failing to consider the human dimension in any of these phases could jeopardise the conservation translocation project's success. When the human dimensions are included there is greater possibility of community involvement, peers' acceptance and support from various interest groups and avoidance of conflict situations. The Human-Wildlife Interactions Working Group (HWIWG) was formed in 2018 by members of the IUCN Conservation Translocation Specialist Group (CTSG). HWIWG has facilitated online discussions and workshops with practitioners, researchers and academics from across the globe, on a range of aspects of human-wildlife interactions in conservation translocations, as well as leading discussion sessions during international research conferences. These events have provided a rich source of material from which to draw a series of recommendations. In this paper we discuss findings from the HWIWG that illustrate how, in each of the five stages of the project life cycle, human-dimensions influenced conservation translocation projects. Our aim is to provide useful and multidimensional insights for those working in species' reintroductions and translocations.

A systems framework for planning and evaluating capacity development in conservation: recommendations for practitioners

Capacity development is increasingly recognized as central to conservation goals. Efforts to develop individual, organizational and societal capacity underpin direct investments in biodiversity conservation and natural resource management, and sustain their impact over time. In the face of urgent needs and increasingly complex contexts for conservation the sector not only needs more capacity development, it needs new approaches to capacity development. The sector is embracing the dynamic relationships between the ecological, political, social and economic dimensions of conservation. Capacity development practitioners should ensure that individuals, organizations and communities are prepared to work effectively in these complex environments of constant change to transform the systems that drive biodiversity loss and unsustainable, unequitable resource use. Here we advocate for a systems view of capacity development. We propose a conceptual framework that aligns capacity development components with all stages of conservation efforts, fosters attention to context, and coordinates with parallel efforts to engage across practitioners and sectors for more systemic impact. Furthermore, we highlight a need for practitioners to target, measure and support vital elements of capacity that have traditionally received less attention, such as values and motivation, leadership and organizational culture, and governance and participation by using approaches from psychology, the social sciences and systems thinking. Drawing from conservation and other sectors, we highlight examples of approaches that can support reflective practice, so capacity development practitioners can better understand the factors that favour or hinder effectiveness of interventions and influence system-wide change.

Evaluating the benefits and risks of social media for wildlife conservation

Given its extensive volume and reach, social media has the potential to widely spread conservation messaging and be a powerful tool to mobilize social change for conserving biodiversity. We synthesized gray and primary academic literature to investigate the effects of social media on wildlife conservation, revealing several overarching benefits and risks. We found that social media can increase pro-conservation behaviours among the public, increase conservation funding, and incite policy changes. Conversely, social media can contribute to species exploitation and illegal trade, cause unprecedented increases in tourism in protected areas, and perpetuate anti-conservation behaviours via misinformation. In most cases, we found that content sharing on social media did not result in a detectable impact on conservation; in this paper, however, we focus on providing examples where conservation impact was achieved. We relate these positive and negative outcomes of social media to psychological phenomena that may influence conservation efforts and discuss limitations of our findings. We conclude with recommendations of best practices to social media administrators, public social media users, nongovernmental organizations, and governing agencies to minimize conservation risks while maximizing beneficial outcomes. By improving messaging, policing online misconduct, and providing guidance for action, social media can help achieve wildlife conservation goals.

OUP accepted manuscript

Because biodiversity loss has largely been attributed to human actions, people, particularly those in the Global South, are regularly depicted as threats to conservation. This context has facilitated rapid growth in green militarization, with fierce crackdowns against real or perceived environmental offenders. We designed an undergraduate course to assess student perspectives on biodiversity conservation and social justice and positioned those students to contribute to a human heritage-centered conservation (HHCC) initiative situated in Uganda. We evaluated changes in perspectives using pre- and postcourse surveys and reflection instruments. Although the students started the course prioritizing biodiversity conservation, even when it was costly to human well-being, by the end of the course, they were recognizing and remarking on the central importance of social justice within conservation. We present a framework for further integration of HHCC approaches into higher education courses so as to conserve the integrity of coupled human and natural systems globally.

Disease Risk and Conservation Implications of Orangutan Translocations

Critically Endangered orangutans are translocated in several situations: reintroduced into historic range where no wild populations exist, released to reinforce existing wild populations, and wild-to-wild translocated to remove individuals from potentially risky situations. Translocated orangutans exposed to human diseases, including Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), pose risks to wild and previously released conspecifics. Wildlife disease risk experts recommended halting great ape translocations during the COVID-19 pandemic to minimize risk of disease transmission to wild populations. We collected data on orangutan releases and associated disease risk management in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic, and developed a problem description for orangutan disease and conservation risks. We identified that at least 15 rehabilitated ex-captive and 27 wild captured orangutans were released during the study period. Identified disease risks included several wild-to-wild translocated orangutans in direct contact or proximity to humans without protective equipment, and formerly captive rehabilitated orangutans that have had long periods of contact and potential exposure to human diseases. While translocation practitioners typically employ mitigation measures to decrease disease transmission likelihood, these measures cannot eliminate all risk, and are not consistently applied. COVID-19 and other diseases of human origin can be transmitted to orangutans, which could have catastrophic impacts on wild orangutans, other susceptible fauna, and humans should disease transmission occur. We recommend stakeholders conduct a Disease Risk Analysis for orangutan translocation, and improve pathogen surveillance and mitigation measures to decrease the likelihood of potential outbreaks. We also suggest refocusing conservation efforts on alternatives to wild-to-wild translocation including mitigating human-orangutan interactions, enforcing laws and protecting orangutan habitats to conserve orangutans in situ.

Systems Approaches to Combating Wildlife Trafficking: Expanding Existing Frameworks to Facilitate Cross-Disciplinary Collaboration

Wildlife trafficking is a complex conservation issue that threatens thousands of species around the world and, in turn, negatively affects biodiversity and human well-being. It occurs in varied social-ecological contexts; includes numerous and diverse actors along the source-transit-destination trade chain, who are involved in illicit and often covert human behaviors driven by interacting social, economic, cultural, and political factors; and involves numerous stakeholders comprising multiple sectors and disciplines. Such wicked problems can be difficult to define and usually lack simple, clear solutions. Systems thinking is a way to understand and address complex issues such as wildlife trafficking and requires multisectoral, cross-disciplinary collaboration to comprehensively understand today's increasingly complex problems and develop holistic and novel solutions. We review methods utilized to date to combat wildlife trafficking and discuss their strengths and limitations. Next, we describe the continuum of cross-disciplinarity and present two frameworks for understanding complex environmental issues, including the illegal trade in wildlife, that can facilitate collaboration across sectors and disciplines. The Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation provides guidance and tools for defining complex social-ecological systems and identifying strategic points of intervention. One Health focuses on the nexus of human, wildlife, and environmental health, and can provide a framework to address concerns around human-wildlife interactions, including those associated with the illegal wildlife trade. Finally, we provide recommendations for expanding these and similar frameworks to better support communication, learning, and collaboration in cross-disciplinary efforts aimed at addressing international wildlife trafficking and its intersections with other complex, global conservation issues.

A “Wicked Problem” Reconciling Human-Shark Conflict, Shark Bite Mitigation, and Threatened Species

Conservation measures often result in a “wicked problem,” i.e., a complex problem with conflicting aims and no clear or straightforward resolution without severe adverse effects on one or more parties. Here we discuss a novel approach to an ongoing problem, in which actions to reduce risk to humans, involve lethal control of otherwise protected species. To protect water users, nets are often used to catch potentially dangerous sharks at popular bathing beaches, yet in Australian waters one of the targeted species, the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) is listed as Vulnerable, while bycatch includes the Critically Endangered grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus). Recent, highly publicised, shark attacks have triggered demands for improved bather protection, whilst welfare and conservation organisations have called for removal of lethal measures. This leaves management and policy makers with a wicked problem: removing nets to reduce impacts on threatened species may increase risk to humans; or leaving the program as it is on the premise that the benefits provided by bather protection are greater than the impact on threatened and protected species. We used multivariate analysis and generalised additive models to investigate the biological, spatial-temporal, and environmental patterns influencing catch rates of threatened and of potentially dangerous shark species in the New South Wales shark nets over two decades to April 2019. Factors influencing catches were used to develop a matrix of potential changes to reduce catch of threatened species. Our proposed solutions include replacing existing nets with alternative mitigation strategies at key beaches where catch rate of threatened species is high. This approach provides stakeholders with a hierarchy of scenarios that address both social demands and threatened species conservation and is broadly applicable to human-wildlife conflict scenarios elsewhere.

Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Address Complex Conservation Problems: Tiger Farming as a Case Study

Conservation practitioners routinely work within complex social-ecological systems to address threats facing biodiversity and to promote positive human-wildlife interactions. Inadequate understanding of the direct and indirect, short- and long-term consequences of decision making within these dynamic systems can lead to misdiagnosed problems and interventions with perverse outcomes, exacerbating conflict. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling is a process that encourages stakeholder engagement, synthesizes research and knowledge, increases trust and consensus and improves transdisciplinary collaboration to solve these complex types of problems. Tiger conservation exemplifies a set of interventions in a complex social-ecological system. Wild tigers remain severely threatened by various factors, including habitat constraints, human-wildlife conflict, and persistent consumer demand for their body parts. Opinions differ on whether commercial captive tiger facilities reduce or increase the threat from poaching for trade, resulting in policy conflict among diverse stakeholder groups. This paper explains how we are working with international conservation partners in a virtual environment to utilize a participatory SD modeling approach with the goal of better understanding and promoting coexistence of humans and wild tigers. We highlight a step-by-step process that others might use to apply participatory SD modeling to address similar conservation challenges, building trust and consensus among diverse partners to reduce conflict and improve the efficacy of conservation interventions.

What determines the success and failure of environmental crowdfunding?

Online crowdfunding can help address the perennial financial shortfalls in environmental conservation and management. Although many online crowdfunding campaigns fail to collect any funds due to not achieving their targets, little is known about what drives success. To address this knowledge gap, we applied a mixed-methods approach to data from 473 successful and failed campaigns hosted on the online crowdfunding platform Readyfor. We found that fundraising performance varied by topic, with campaigns on pet animal management outperforming those focussed on landscape management and sustainable use. We also found that marketing strategies associated with online findability and increased reach through social networks, increased fundraising success. However, the existence of other environmental campaigns running simultaneously, reduced the chance of success, which implies that the selecting popular topics does not always increase the likelihood of success due to increased competition. Wider applications of marketing could enhance the ability of environmental crowdfunding campaigns to raise funds.

Citizens, Scientists, and Enablers: A Tripartite Model for Citizen Science Projects

In this paper, we focus on different roles in citizen science projects, and their respective relationships. We propose a tripartite model that recognises not only citizens and scientists, but also an important third role, which we call the ‘enabler’. In doing so, we acknowledge that additional expertise and skillsets are often present in citizen science projects, but are frequently overlooked in associated literature. We interrogate this model by applying it to three case studies and explore how the success and sustainability of a citizen science project requires all roles to be acknowledged and interacting appropriately. In this era of ‘wicked problems’, the nature of science and science communication has become more complex. In order to address critical emerging issues, a greater number of stakeholders are engaging in multi-party partnerships and research is becoming increasingly interdisciplinary. Within this context, explicitly acknowledging the role and motivations of everyone involved can provide a framework for enhanced project transparency, delivery, evaluation and impact. By adapting our understanding of citizen science to better recognise the complexity of the organisational systems within which they operate, we propose an opportunity to strengthen the collaborative delivery of both valuable scientific research and public engagement.

Conservation lessons from taboos and trolley problems

Governments pass conservation laws, adopt policies, and make plans yet frequently fail to implement them. Implementation of conservation, however, often requires costly sacrifice: people foregoing benefit for the benefit of biodiversity. Decisions involve trade-offs with outcomes that depend on the values at stake and people's perceptions of those values. Psychology, ethics, and behavioral science have each addressed the challenge of making difficult, often tragic, trade-off decisions. Based on these literatures, values can be classified as secular or sacred, where sacred values are those for which compensation may be unthinkable (e.g., freedom). Taboo trade-offs emerge when secular values are pitted against sacred ones. These are difficult to discuss, much less negotiate. Confronting taboo trade-offs in conservation may require discursive approaches to better understand particular attributes of decisions that place sacred human values at risk. Tragic trade-offs emerge when sacred values are pitted against one another. The trolley problem-a forced choice between 2 unthinkable outcomes-is a simple heuristic illustrating ethical challenges of tragic trade-offs. Behavior studies illustrate that people have a strong aversion to losses where an active choice was made, resulting in a bias toward status quo decisions. Faced with tragic, trolley-problem-like choices, people tend to avoid taking responsibility for action, defer decisions, evade opinions on painful choices, and regret unfortunate outcomes of actions. To help close the implementation gap, conservation actors may need to directly address the psychological, ethical, and behavioral barriers created by the remorse, regret, and moral residue of implementing conservation choices that have tragic outcomes. Recognition of these predictable features of the human psyche may foster better administrative structures to support action with durable outcomes as well as new research directions.

Reef foraminifera as bioindicators of coral reef health in southern South China Sea

Pulau Tioman is a famous tourist island off Peninsular Malaysia with beautiful coral reefs. This study aims to assess the health of the coral reefs surrounding Pulau Tioman based on the application of the Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring Index (FI). Ten sampling sites around Pulau Tioman were studied with a total of 30 samples. Eight orders, 41 families, 80 genera, and 161 species of benthic foraminifera were identified. The agglutinated type of foraminifera constituted 2–8% of the total assemblages. Calcareous hyaline and porcelaneous groups represented 79% and 19% of the total assemblages, respectively. Symbiont-bearing taxa were the most common foraminifera. The results indicate that most of the sampling sites are conducive for coral reef growth with good recoverability from future stress to the ecosystem. However, several areas with higher coastal development and tourism have reduced water and sediment quality. Therefore, the limit on the number of visitors and tourists should be revised to enable coral growth and health. The FI values in this study showed a positive correlation with good water qualities and a negative correlation with organic matter enrichment. The FI is a good measure to assess the health of a coral reef and can be applied to other reef ecosystems around Malaysia.

The historical range and drivers of decline of the Tapanuli orangutan

The Tapanuli Orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) is the most threatened great ape species in the world. It is restricted to an area of about 1,000 km² of upland forest where fewer than 800 animals survive in three declining subpopulations. Through a historical ecology approach involving analysis of newspaper, journals, books and museum records from the early 1800s to 2009, we demonstrate that historically Pongo tapanuliensis inhabited a much larger area, and occurred across a much wider range of habitat types and at lower elevations than now. Its current Extent of Occurrence is 2.5% and 5.0% of the historical range in the 1890s and 1940s respectively. A combination of historical fragmentation of forest habitats, mostly for small-scale agriculture, and unsustainable hunting likely drove various populations to the south, east and west of the current population to extinction. This happened prior to the industrial-scale forest conversion that started in the 1970s. Our findings indicate how sensitive P. tapanuliensis is to the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and unsustainable take-off rates. Saving this species will require prevention of any further fragmentation and killings or other removal of animals from the remaining population. Without concerted action to achieve this, the remaining populations of P. tapanuliensis are doomed to become extinct within several orangutan generations.

The dominating influence of efficacy above management strategy in the long-term success of alien plant clearing programmes

Conservation managers are required to make decisions in complex and uncertain contexts. To strengthen the robustness of conservation decisions, several approaches have been proposed to facilitate stakeholder engagement in the setting of conservation objectives and priority actions. While such processes have led to the formulation of several invasive alien plant management strategies to achieve specific objectives, the long-term consequences and trade-offs inherent in these strategies have not been tested. The performance of five of these strategies over 50 years was tested in the protected area context using empirical data from Table Mountain National Park, South Africa. A simulation model based on data for invasive Acacia species in a fire-driven ecosystem, focused on the interaction between strategy performance and clearing efficacy in achieving a management goal or reducing Acacia density to below 1 plant per hectare. At near perfect levels of clearing efficacy, all strategies converged towards reaching the management goal, while at lower efficacy levels the strategies diverged in their ability to achieve desired outcomes. Despite working across the largest area, strategies that focussed on clearing low density invasions, maintained the least area in a maintenance state over time. In contrast, strategies that focussed on a mix of post-fire, low density areas and high altitude areas cleared less area annually, but maintained a much larger area in a maintenance state. At higher levels of efficacy, strategies that return to previously worked areas were more successful than a post-fire strategy. Strategies that focused solely on securing water, performed poorly in maintaining low overall density of aliens. However, the influence of efficacy was significant and substantial and a much larger difference in area reaching the management goal was achieved by varying efficacy than varying strategy. As such, improving quality of work and implementation will have a far greater effect than which areas are prioritized or how this prioritization is done. While acacias are likely to persist in the long-term, improving work quality coupled with correct strategy selection will ensure continued gains in the area under maintenance and improved return on investment over time.

Positioning human heritage at the center of conservation practice

Conservation projects subscribing to a community-based paradigm have predominated in the 21st century. We examined the context in which the phrase was coined and traced its growth over time. Community-based conservation first appeared in the literature in the early 1990s; but grew little until after the 5th World Parks Congress in 2003. Thereafter, publications describing community-based conservation approaches increased exponentially. The conference theme was Benefits Beyond Boundaries, and its goal was to provide an economic model based on revenue accrued from conservation fundraising and ecotourism to support ecosystems, wildlife, and people, particularly in the Global South. Such models tended not to incorporate, as a core principle, the heritage of local human communities. Human heritage varies substantially over time and space making generalization of conservation principles across scales challenging. Pitfalls that have grown out of the community-based conservation approaches in the Global South include fortress conservation, conservation militarism, consumptive and nonconsumptive ecotourism, and whiz-bang solutions. We propose 10 tenets in a human heritage-centered conservation framework (e.g., engage in conservation practices using local languages, thoughtfully propose and apply solutions consistent with human heritage, provide clear professional development pathways for individuals from local communities, and promote alternative revenue-generating programs centered in local communities, among others). Progressive philosophies can derive from authentic and ethical integration of local communities in conservation practice.

Transformability as a Wicked Problem: A Cautionary Tale?

Transformability is increasingly promoted as a way of moving societies toward more sustainable futures in the era of the Anthropocene, mostly because the concept of resilience has fallen short in many instances where impacts on social-ecological systems are continuous, varied, and usually unknown. While such transformations can play a crucial role in improving the sustainability of social-ecological systems, they may lead to unexpected and undesirable outcomes. This literature review on social-ecological transformability and wicked problems seeks to shed light on and acknowledge some of the limitations of transformability regarding unforeseen conditions. We argue that wicked problems arise in transformation initiatives in the presence of high complexity, deep uncertainty, deep conflicts, and divergence among stakeholders, as well as scale mismatches concerning spatial, temporal, and institutional processes. Our findings may explain why some transformation initiatives fail to generate expected changes on the ground, mainly in two cases: (a) a polarized configuration that maintains the status quo of the system to be transformed and (b) an unforeseen transformation that causes the system to lurch from crisis to crisis. To conclude, we recommend using diagnostic questions to prevent wicked problems in social-ecological transformations.

The plight of the Endangered mountain gazelle Gazella gazella

The Endangered mountain gazelle Gazella gazella was once widespread throughout the Levant. Over the past 100 years its population fluctuated greatly as a result of various anthropogenic threats and disturbances. We review the dynamics of the mountain gazelle throughout this period in Israel, its last remaining stronghold, with c. 5,000 individuals. During the 20th century Israel's human population increased steadily at an annual rate of 2%; the population density is currently 430 persons per km2 and is forecast to increase further. This presents an array of threats to the mountain gazelle, including habitat change, fragmentation and isolation by roads, railways and fences, poaching, road kills and predation by increasing populations of natural predators and feral dogs, sustained partly by anthropogenic food waste. These threats may act in synergy to amplify their effects. We present an overview of how these factors acted in the past and are currently threatening the survival of this species. We also review the policy and management actions, both implemented and still required, to ensure the persistence of the mountain gazelle. In addition, we analyse connectivity in the landscape, highlighting highly fragmented gazelle populations, and suggest potential interventions. The mountain gazelle exemplifies an ungulate with both great vulnerability to human pressures and a large breeding potential. As more regions, in Israel and elsewhere, are converted to human dominated landscapes, pressures on wildlife are increasing, and lessons from the mountain gazelle could prove valuable.

Effects of captivity, diet, and relocation on the gut bacterial communities of white-footed mice

Microbes can have important impacts on their host's survival. Captive breeding programs for endangered species include periods of captivity that can ultimately have an impact on reintroduction success. No study to date has investigated the impacts of captive diet on the gut microbiota during the relocation process of generalist species. This study simulated a captive breeding program with white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) to describe the variability in gut microbial community structure and composition during captivity and relocation in their natural habitat, and compared it to wild individuals. Mice born in captivity were fed two different diets, a control with dry standardized pellets and a treatment with nonprocessed components that reflect a version of their wild diet that could be provided in captivity. The mice from the two groups were then relocated to their natural habitat. Relocated mice that had the treatment diet had more phylotypes in common with the wild-host microbiota than mice under the control diet or mice kept in captivity. These results have broad implications for our understanding of microbial community dynamics and the effects of captivity on reintroduced animals, including the potential impact on the survival of endangered species. This study demonstrates that ex situ conservation actions should consider a more holistic perspective of an animal's biology including its microbes.

Addressing distribution equity in spatial conservation prioritization for small-scale fisheries

Spatial conservation prioritization is used worldwide for designing marine protected areas (MPA) that achieve set conservation objectives with minimal impacts to marine users. People involved in small-scale fisheries (SSF) may incur negative and disproportionate impacts from implementing MPAs, yet limited available data often restricts their representation in MPA planning. Using a Philippines case study, we focus here on the systematic design of a MPA network that aims to minimize and distribute costs equitably for SSF whilst achieving representation targets for biodiversity conservation. The objectives of the study are to: (1) document a participatory mapping approach for collecting SSF data for prioritization using the local knowledge of fishers; and (2) examine how the completeness and resolution of SSF data may affect prioritization outputs in terms of biodiversity representation, spatial efficiency, and distribution equity. In the data-poor region, we conducted participatory mapping workshops with fishers in 79 communities to collect data on the spatial distribution patterns of different SSF fisheries and communities, and employed remote sensing techniques to define coastal habitats, which were targeted for inclusion in MPAs. The datasets were integrated within the decision-support tool Marxan with Zones to develop three scenarios. The SSF data incorporated in each scenario varied based on their completeness (considered all fishing methods or only dominant methods) and resolution (fishing methods itemized by community or municipality). All scenarios derived MPA plans that met representation targets with similar area coverage. The outputs, however, varied in terms of distribution equity, measured by the distribution of opportunity costs (loss of fishing grounds) across different fisheries and communities. Scenarios that did not include minority fisheries or variations between communities, led to inequitable costs. These results highlight the need to incorporate detailed data on SSF at appropriate resolutions, and how this can be achieved through participatory approaches.

Practitioner insights as a means of setting a context for conservation

A key obstacle to conservation success is the tendency of conservation professionals to tackle each challenge individually rather than collectively and in context. We sought to prioritize barriers to conservation previously described in the conservation literature. We undertook an online survey of 154 practitioners from over 70 countries to ascertain the most important barriers to conservation they faced. We used statistical analyses to identify the key impediments to conservation success and to examine whether these were affected by organizational attributes. Twenty-one barriers were identified. The importance ascribed to those was influenced by continent of operation and organization size, but not by organization age or autonomy (from larger parent organizations). We found the most important barriers to consider when undertaking conservation action were wider issues (e.g., population growth, consumerism, favoring development, and industrial-scale activity), operating environment (e.g., lack of political will, ineffective law enforcement, weak governments, corruption, safety and security), community attributes (e.g., dynamics, conflicts, and education levels), and the way conservation is undertaken (overconfidence, lack of funding, and externally set agendas). However, we advise against applying a one-size-fits-all approach. We propose that conservationists account for the complex socioecological systems they operate in if they are to achieve success.

Understanding complex drivers of wildlife crime to design effective conservation interventions

In conservation understanding the drivers of behavior and developing robust interventions to promote behavioral change is challenging and requires a multifaceted approach. This is particularly true for efforts to address illegal wildlife use, where pervasive-and sometimes simplistic-narratives often obscure complex realities. We used an indirect questioning approach, the unmatched count technique, to investigate the drivers and prevalence of wildlife crime in communities surrounding 2 national parks in Uganda and combined scenario interviews and a choice experiment to predict the performance of potential interventions designed to tackle these crimes. Although poverty is often assumed to be a key driver of wildlife crime, we found that better-off households and those subject to human-wildlife conflict and those that do not receive any benefits from the parks' tourism revenue sharing were more likely to be involved in certain types of wildlife crime, especially illegal hunting. The interventions predicted to have the greatest impact on reducing local participation in wildlife crime were those that directly addressed the drivers including, mitigating damage caused by wildlife and generating financial benefits for park-adjacent households. Our triangulated approach provided insights into complex and hard-to-access behaviors and highlighted the importance of going beyond single-driver narratives.

Can agricultural intensification help to conserve biodiversity? A scenario study for the African continent

Globally, the production of food, feed, bioenergy, and biomaterials has increased considerably during the past decades. This was achieved by the expansion of agricultural land and the intensification of agricultural management. Due to the conversion of natural ecosystems and the increasing use of pesticides and fertilizers, these processes are recognized as important causes of biodiversity loss. This study focuses on the African continent and analyses the potentials to achieve a stable food provision for a growing population, and at the same time, reduce further losses of biodiversity. These targets are important elements of the UN Agenda 2030. Using the spatially explicit land-use model LandSHIFT, we assessed the effectiveness of different land-sparing and land-sharing strategies to achieve these targets until the year 2030. The simulation results indicate that under the assumptions tested, the land sparing approach yields the most desirable results both, on the continental and the regional level. However, the land sharing/sparing framework in general, and the research presented here only analyse the effect of two factors of many (food production and biodiversity conservation). Hence, this study should not be understood to provide specific management recommendations. Further studies, from the regional to the local level, are required that apply a systems approach to understand and explain the multiple dimensions of sustainable food production on the African continent.

Building a stakeholder-led common vision increases the expected cost-effectiveness of biodiversity conservation

Uniting diverse stakeholders through communication, education or building a collaborative 'common vision' for biodiversity management is a recommended approach for enabling effective conservation in regions with multiple uses. However, socially focused strategies such as building a collaborative vision can require sharing scarce resources (time and financial resources) with the on-ground management actions needed to achieve conservation outcomes. Here we adapt current prioritisation tools to predict the likely return on the financial investment of building a stakeholder-led vision along with a portfolio of on-ground management strategies. Our approach brings together and analyses expert knowledge to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a common vision strategy and on-ground management strategies, before any investments in these strategies are made. We test our approach in an intensively-used Australian biodiversity hotspot with 179 threatened or at-risk species. Experts predicted that an effective stakeholder vision for the region would have a relatively low cost and would significantly increase the feasibility of on-ground management strategies. As a result, our analysis indicates that a common vision is likely to be a cost-effective investment, increasing the expected persistence of threatened species in the region by 9 to 52%, depending upon the strategies implemented. Our approach can provide the maximum budget that is worth investing in building a common vision or another socially focused strategy for building support for on-ground conservation actions. The approach can assist with decisions about whether and how to allocate scarce resources amongst social and ecological actions for biodiversity conservation in other regions worldwide.