Modelling the spatial distribution of cetaceans in New Zealand waters

Isotope-based inferences of the trophic niche of short-finned pilot whales in the Webbnesia

Knowledge of predator-prey interactions is key in ecological studies and understanding ecosystem function, yet this is still poorly explored in the deep-sea environment. Carbon (δ13C: 13C/12C) and nitrogen (δ15N: 15N/14N) stable isotope ratios of a deep-diving species, the short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus), were used to explore knowledge gaps on its ecological niche and foraging habitats in the Webbnesia marine ecoregion (Tenerife Island, n = 27 animals vs. Madeira, n = 31; 500 km apart) where animals display distinct levels of site fidelity. Specifically, we tested whether intraspecific isotopic variation results from differences between geographic areas (due to possible foraging plasticity between regions), sexes, and/or years (2015-2020) using Generalized Linear Models. In general, significant differences (p < 0.05) were found in the stable isotope profiles of pilot whales between the two archipelagos, which were also reflected in their isotopic niche. The higher mean and wider range of δ15N values in Tenerife suggest that pilot whales consume prey of higher trophic levels and more diverse than Madeira. The higher mean and wider range of δ13C values in Madeira suggest that in that island, pilot whales rely on prey from more diverse habitats. There was significant variation between some years, but not between sexes. Finally, we discuss pilot whales' foraging strategies worldwide and infer the reliance on benthic or benthopelagic food sources in the Webbnesia.

Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea

Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species' ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes.

Testing spatial transferability of species distribution models reveals differing habitat preferences for an endangered delphinid (Cephalorhynchus hectori) in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict distributions in novel times or space (termed transferability) and fill knowledge gaps for areas that are data poor. In conservation, this can be used to determine the extent of spatial protection required. To understand how well a model transfers spatially, it needs to be independently tested, using data from novel habitats. Here, we test the transferability of SDMs for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori), a culturally important (taonga) and endangered, coastal delphinid, endemic to Aotearoa New Zealand. We collected summer distribution data from three populations from 2021 to 2023. Using Generalised Additive Models, we built presence/absence SDMs for each population and validated the predictive ability of the top models (with TSS and AUC). Then, we tested the transferability of each top model by predicting the distribution of the remaining two populations. SDMs for two populations showed useful performance within their respective areas (Banks Peninsula and Otago), but when used to predict the two areas outside the models' source data, performance declined markedly. SDMs from the third area (Timaru) performed poorly, both for prediction within the source area and when transferred spatially. When data for model building were combined from two areas, results were mixed. Model interpolation was better when presence/absence data from Otago, an area of low density, were combined with data from areas of higher density, but was otherwise poor. The overall poor transferability of SDMs suggests that habitat preferences of Hector's dolphins vary between areas. For these dolphins, population-specific distribution data should be used for conservation planning. More generally, we demonstrate that a one model fits all approach is not always suitable. When SDMs are used to predict distribution in data-poor areas an assessment of performance in the new habitat is required, and results should be interpreted with caution.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Bottlenose dolphin distribution in a Mediterranean area exposed to intensive trawling

The Adriatic Sea is one of the areas most exposed to trawling, worldwide. We used four years (2018-2021) and 19,887 km of survey data to investigate factors influencing daylight dolphin distribution in its north-western sector, where common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus routinely follow fishing trawlers. We validated Automatic Identification System information on the position, type and activity of three types of trawlers based on observations from boats, and incorporated this information in a GAM-GEE modelling framework, together with physiographic, biological and anthropogenic variables. Along with bottom depth, trawlers (particularly otter and midwater trawlers) appeared to be important drivers of dolphin distribution, with dolphins foraging and scavenging behind trawlers during 39.3% of total observation time in trawling days. The spatial dimension of dolphin adaptations to intensive trawling, including distribution shifts between days with and without trawling, sheds light on the magnitude of ecological change driven by the trawl fishery.

Planning for an offshore oiled wildlife response: case studies from New Zealand and Brazil

When an offshore oil spill occurs, it is often assumed that there will be no wildlife impacted or that an oiled wildlife response could not be undertaken. In most cases, one or both assumptions are wrong. With increasing offshore fishing, petroleum exploration, and shipping routes, the risk of accidents and spills offshore has increased. This review outlines the important considerations for offshore oiled wildlife response and explores two case studies on offshore oiled wildlife response planning based on offshore drilling or active platforms in New Zealand and Brazil. There are significant challenges for running a response in offshore environments; however, with planning, including preparation of specialized response plans, equipment, and readiness of skilled personnel, an offshore oiled wildlife response can lead to greater survival and protection for wildlife and the environment.

Predicting the effects of climate change on deep-water coral distribution around New Zealand-Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?

Deep-water corals are protected in the seas around New Zealand by legislation that prohibits intentional damage and removal, and by marine protected areas where bottom trawling is prohibited. However, these measures do not protect them from the impacts of a changing climate and ocean acidification. To enable adequate future protection from these threats we require knowledge of the present distribution of corals and the environmental conditions that determine their preferred habitat, as well as the likely future changes in these conditions, so that we can identify areas for potential refugia. In this study, we built habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals using a comprehensive set of sample data and predicted present and future seafloor environmental conditions from an earth system model specifically tailored for the South Pacific. These models predicted that for most taxa there will be substantial shifts in the location of the most suitable habitat and decreases in the area of such habitat by the end of the 21st century, driven primarily by decreases in seafloor oxygen concentrations, shoaling of aragonite and calcite saturation horizons, and increases in nitrogen concentrations. The current network of protected areas in the region appear to provide little protection for most coral taxa, as there is little overlap with areas of highest habitat suitability, either in the present or the future. We recommend an urgent re-examination of the spatial distribution of protected areas for deep-water corals in the region, utilising spatial planning software that can balance protection requirements against value from fishing and mineral resources, take into account the current status of the coral habitats after decades of bottom trawling, and consider connectivity pathways for colonisation of corals into potential refugia.

Too Close for Comfort? Isotopic Niche Segregation in New Zealand's Odontocetes

Species occurring in sympatry and relying on similar and limited resources may partition resource use to avoid overlap and interspecific competition. Aotearoa, New Zealand hosts an extraordinarily rich marine megafauna, including 50% of the world's cetacean species. In this study, we used carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes as ecological tracers to investigate isotopic niche overlap between 21 odontocete (toothed whale) species inhabiting neritic, mesopelagic, and bathypelagic waters. Results showed a clear niche separation for the bathypelagic Gray's beaked whales (Mesoplodon grayi) and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), but high isotopic niche overlap and potential interspecific competition for neritic and mesopelagic species. For these species, competition could be reduced via temporal or finer-scale spatial segregation or differences in foraging behaviour. This study represents the first insights into the coexistence of odontocetes in a biodiverse hotspot. The data presented here provide a critical baseline to a system already ongoing ecosystem change via ocean warming and subsequent effects on prey abundance and distributions.

Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change

Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly in recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate a species' potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species' presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species-level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re-analysing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species' habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species-level and lineage-level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo-Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage-level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses.

Marine soundscape variation reveals insights into baleen whales and their environment: a case study in central New Zealand

Baleen whales reliably produce stereotyped vocalizations, enabling their spatio-temporal distributions to be inferred from acoustic detections. Soundscape analysis provides an integrated approach whereby vocal species, such as baleen whales, are sampled holistically with other acoustic contributors to their environment. Acoustic elements that occur concurrently in space, time and/or frequency can indicate overlaps between free-ranging species and potential stressors. Such information can inform risk assessment framework models. Here, we demonstrate the utility of soundscape monitoring in central New Zealand, an area of high cetacean diversity where potential threats are poorly understood. Pygmy blue whale calls were abundant in the South Taranaki Bight (STB) throughout recording periods and were also detected near Kaikōura during autumn. Humpback, Antarctic blue and Antarctic minke whales were detected in winter and spring, during migration. Wind, rain, tidal and wave activity increased ambient sound levels in both deep- and shallow-water environments across a broad range of frequencies, including those used by baleen whales, and sound from shipping, seismic surveys and earthquakes overlapped in time, space and frequency with whale calls. The results highlight the feasibility of soundscape analysis to quantify and understand potential stressors to free-ranging species, which is essential for conservation and management decisions.