One-hour plasma glucose as a predictor of the development of Type 2 diabetes in Japanese adults

Implementing care for women with gestational diabetes after delivery-the challenges ahead

Gestational diabetes (GDM), defined as glucose intolerance during pregnancy, affects one in six pregnancies globally and significantly increases a woman's lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Being a relatively young group, women with GDM are also at higher risk of developing diabetes related complications (e.g., cardiovascular disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) later in life. Children of women with GDM are also likely to develop GDM and this perpetuates a cycle of diabetes, escalating our current pandemic of metabolic disease. The global prevalence of GDM has now risen by more than 30% over the last two decades, making it an emerging public health concern. Antepartum management of maternal glucose is unable to fully mitigate the associated lifetime cardiometabolic risk. Thus, efforts may need to focus on improving care for women with GDM during the postpartum period where prevention or therapeutic strategies could be implemented to attenuate progression of GDM to DM and its associated vascular complications. However, strategies to provide care for women in the postpartum period often showed disappointing results. This has led to a missed opportunity to halt the progression of impaired glucose tolerance/impaired fasting glucose to DM in women with GDM. In this review, we examined the challenges in the management of women with GDM after delivery and considered how each of these challenges are defined and could present as a gap in translating evidence to clinical care. We highlighted challenges related to postpartum surveillance, postpartum glucose testing strategies, postpartum risk factor modification, and problems encountered in engagement of patients/providers to implement interventions strategies in women with GDM after delivery. We reasoned that a multisystem approach is needed to address these challenges and to retard progression to DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women with GDM pregnancies. This is very much needed to pave way for an improved, precise, culturally sensitive and wholistic care for women with GDM.

Normalization of impaired glucose tolerance after kidney transplantation is associated with improved β-cell function

Our previous study revealed that over 50% of recipients with pretransplant impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) improved to normal glucose tolerance after kidney transplantation. However, the mechanism is unclear. We aimed to investigate whether the changes in glucose tolerance are associated with β-cell function and insulin resistance in Japanese kidney transplant recipients with pretransplant IGT. Of the 265 recipients who received kidney transplantation, 54 with pretransplant IGT were included. We divided the recipients into improvement and nonimprovement groups according to the change in the area under the curve for glucose obtained from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). β-Cell function was estimated by the insulin secretion sensitivity index-2 (ISSI-2) and the disposition index (DI). Insulin resistance was estimated by the Matsuda index (MI) and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). ISSI-2 and DI increased significantly after transplantation in the improved group (P < 0.01, P < 0.05, respectively), but not in the nonimproved group. ΔISSI-2 and ΔDI were significantly and positively associated with pretransplant 60-min OGTT plasma glucose levels (both P < 0.01). There were no differences in MI or HOMA-IR between these two groups after transplantation. In recipients not on pretransplant dialysis, a significant negative association was found between Δblood urea nitrogen (BUN) and ΔDI (correlation coefficient = -0.48, P < 0.05). In pretransplant IGT recipients, improvements in glucose tolerance after kidney transplantation were linked to improvements in β-cell function. The higher the 60-min OGTT plasma glucose level, the greater the improvement in posttransplant β-cell function. Improvements in BUN after transplantation were associated with improvements in β-cell function.NEW & NOTEWORTHY In recipients with pretransplant impaired glucose tolerance, improvements in glucose tolerance after kidney transplantation were associated with improvements in β-cell function. The higher the pretransplant 60-min OGTT plasma glucose level, the greater the improvement in posttransplant β-cell function. Although glucose tolerance is known to be impaired after transplantation, the present study focused on the reason for the improvement in glucose tolerance rather than the development of posttransplantation diabetes mellitus.

Efficacy of 1-hour postload plasma glucose as a suitable measurement in predicting type 2 diabetes and diabetes-related complications: A post hoc analysis of the 30-year follow-up of the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study

AIM

To evaluate whether 1-hour plasma glucose (1hPG) can be a comparable measurement to 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) in identifying individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 1026 non-diabetic subjects in the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study were included and classified according to baseline postload 1hPG. The participants were followed up and assessed at 6-, 20- and 30year follow-up for outcomes including diabetes, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and microvascular disease. We then conducted a proportional hazards analysis in this post hoc study to determine the risks of developing type 2 diabetes and its complications in a '1hPG-normal' group (1hPG <8.6 mmol/L) and a '1hPG-high' group (≥8.6 mmol/L). The predictive values of 1hPG and 2hPG were evaluated using a time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Compared with the 1hPG-normal group, the 1hPG-high group had increased risk of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 4.45, 95% CI 3.43-5.79), all-cause mortality (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.01), CVD mortality (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.16-2.95), CVD events (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.03-1.86) and microvascular disease (HR 1.70, 95% CI: 1.03-2.79) after adjusting for confounders. 1hPG exhibited a higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting diabetes than 2hPG during the long-term follow-up (AUC [1hPG vs. 2hPG]: 10 years: 0.86 vs. 0.84, p = 0.08; 20 years: 0.88 vs. 0.87, p = 0.04; 30 years: 0.85 vs. 0.82, p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated 1hPG level (≥8.6 mmol/L) was associated with increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes and its long-term complications, and could be considered as a suitable measurement for identifying individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes.

One-hour post-load plasma glucose level predicts future type 2 diabetes in a community-based study of Hong Kong Chinese workforce

BACKGROUND

We compared performance of high 1-hour PG level, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in predicting type 2 diabetes in a longitudinal community-based cohort of Hong Kong Chinese.

METHODS

Between 2001 and 2003, 472 adults aged 18-55 years without diabetes underwent 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Between 2012 and 2014, progression to diabetes was ascertained by reviewing medical records or repeating OGTT and HbA1c. We defined high 1-hour PG as PG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L at 1-hour.

RESULTS

In this cohort, 23.5% had normal glucose tolerance and high 1-hour PG, 10.0% had isolated IGT, 4.2% had isolated IFG. Over 12-year follow-up, 9.3% developed type 2 diabetes. In logistic regression, high 1-hour PG was associated with progression to type 2 diabetes with adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of 4.20 (1.60, 12.40), independent of IFG, IGT and other clinical variables. Areas under ROC (95% CI) for type 2 diabetes were similar between 1-hour (0.84 [0.78, 0.89], 2-hour (0.79 [0.72, 0.86]) and fasting PG (0.79 [0.71, 0.86]).

CONCLUSION

High 1-hour PG identified young Chinese with 5-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes independent of other intermediate hyperglycaemia status and clinical factors. 1-hour PG is similar to fasting and 2-hour PG in predicting type 2 diabetes.

International Diabetes Federation Position Statement on the 1-hour post-load plasma glucose for the diagnosis of intermediate hyperglycaemia and type 2 diabetes

Many individuals with intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH), including impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), as presently defined, will progress to type 2 diabetes (T2D). There is confirmatory evidence that T2D can be prevented by lifestyle modification and/or medications, in people with IGT diagnosed by 2-h plasma glucose (PG) during a 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Over the last 40 years, a wealth of epidemiological data has confirmed the superior value of 1-h plasma glucose (PG) over fasting PG (FPG), glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and 2-h PG in populations of different ethnicity, sex and age in predicting diabetes and associated complications including death. Given the relentlessly rising prevalence of diabetes, a more sensitive, practical method is needed to detect people with IH and T2D for early prevention or treatment in the often lengthy trajectory to T2D and its complications. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Position Statement reviews findings that the 1-h post-load PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) in people with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) during an OGTT is highly predictive for detecting progression to T2D, micro- and macrovascular complications, obstructive sleep apnoea, cystic fibrosis-related diabetes mellitus, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, and mortality in individuals with risk factors. The 1-h PG of 209 mg/dL (11.6 mmol/L) is also diagnostic of T2D. Importantly, the 1-h PG cut points for diagnosing IH and T2D can be detected earlier than the recommended 2-h PG thresholds. Taken together, the 1-h PG provides an opportunity to avoid misclassification of glycaemic status if FPG or HbA1c alone are used. The 1-h PG also allows early detection of high-risk people for intervention to prevent progression to T2D which will benefit the sizeable and growing population of individuals at increased risk of T2D. Using a 1-h OGTT, subsequent to screening with a non-laboratory diabetes risk tool, and intervening early will favourably impact the global diabetes epidemic. Health services should consider developing a policy for screening for IH based on local human and technical resources. People with a 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) are considered to have IH and should be prescribed lifestyle intervention and referred to a diabetes prevention program. People with a 1-h PG ≥ 209 mg/dL (11.6 mmol/L) are considered to have T2D and should have a repeat test to confirm the diagnosis of T2D and then referred for further evaluation and treatment. The substantive data presented in the Position Statement provides strong evidence for redefining current diagnostic criteria for IH and T2D by adding the 1-h PG.

Value of 1-Hour Plasma Glucose During an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test in a Multiethnic Cohort of Obese Children and Adolescents

One hour plasma glucose (1-hr PG) concentration during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is steadily emerging as an independent predictor of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

We applied the current cut off thresholds reported in the pediatric literature for the 1-hr PG, 132.5 (7.4 mmol/l) and 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/l) during an OGTT, to report abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) using ROC curve analyses. We determined the empirical optimal cut point for 1-hr PG for our multi ethnic cohort using the Youden Index.

Results

About 1-hour and 2-hours plasma glucose showed the highest predictive potential based on Areas under the curve (AUC) values of 0.91 [CI: 0.85, 0.97] and 1 [CI: 1, 1], respectively. Further comparison of the ROC curves of the 1-hour and 2-hour PG measurements as predictors of an abnormal OGTT showed that their associated AUCs differed significantly (X²(1) = 9.25, P < .05). Using 132.5 mg/dL as the cutoff point for plasma glucose at 1-hour yielded a ROC curve with an AUC of 0.796, a sensitivity of 88%, and a specificity of 71.2%. Alternatively, the cutoff point of 155 mg/dL resulted in a ROC AUC of 0.852, a sensitivity of 80%, and a specificity of 90.4%.

Conclusion

Our cross-sectional study affirms that the 1-hr PG can identify obese children and adolescents at increased risk for prediabetes and/or T2D with almost the same accuracy as a 2-hr PG. In our multi-ethnic cohort, a 1-hr PG ⩾ 155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/l) serves as an optimal cut-point, using the estimation of the Youden index with AUC of 0.86 and sensitivity of 80%.We support the petition to consider the 1-hr PG as integral during an OGTT, as this adds value to the interpretation of the OGTT beyond the fasting and 2-hr PG.

Dysglycemia With Impaired Insulin Secretion After Resection of a High-Molecular-Weight IGF-II-Producing Tumor

Analysis of insulin and related glucoregulatory hormone secretion following high-molecular-weight insulin-like growth factor II (HMW-IGF-II)-releasing tumor excision has never been reported. In a man with chronic hypoglycemia-plasma glucose (PG), 2.1 mmol/L with undetectable serum insulin, less than 7.2 pmol/L on admission-the cause of the hypoglycemia was HMW-IGF-II in the serum secreted by an intrathoracic benign pleural solitary fibrous tumor (size: 15 × 17 × 12 cm). Removal of the tumor nullified serum HMW-IGF-II and hypoglycemia. Postoperative glucose metabolism was evaluated day 272 by 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and on days 5, 202, and 990 by fasted sampling. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was 37 to 41 mmol/mol, fasting PG was 5.3 to 5.4 mmol/L, and 2-hour PG at 75 g OGTT was 6.9 mmol/L, indicating that he was at the prediabetes stage. Homeostasis Model Assessment 2 of Insulin Resistance and Homeostasis Model Assessment 2 of β-Cell levels were within the normal range but the Stumvoll first phase was lowered. Insulin sensitivity and secretion were compared to age-, sex-, and body mass index-matched controls with normal glucose metabolism. Long-term HMW-IGF-II exposure of pancreatic islet β cells caused the functional impairment, that is, suppressed glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS), leading to nondiabetic hyperglycemia. This fact suggests long-term HMW-IGF-II exposure of the islet β cell specifically dampens GSIS.

Postpartum reclassification test in gestational diabetes: can the test be reduced to 1 hour?

PURPOSE

In gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a postpartum oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is recommended. However, poor adherence to this procedure has been described, and the time required is one of the reasons. Our aims were to identify predictive factors for abnormal 2-h reclassification OGTT values, including OGTT 1-h glucose, and, if it was a factor, to determine the 1-h cutoff point that best identifies abnormal values at 2 h.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 769 patients diagnosed with GDM between 2014 and 2019 in a tertiary center. The sample was divided into two groups according to the presence/absence of abnormal 2-h reclassification values, and predictive factors were studied. To determine the 1-h glycemia cutoff point capable of identifying 2-h changes, a ROC curve was drawn and the Youden index was used.

RESULTS

The mean age of included women was 33.6 ± 4.95 years: 70 of them (9.1%) had an abnormal 2-h test result. Women with a history of GDM (OR = 3.41, p = .012) and higher 1-h glycemia value (OR = 1.05, p < .001) had a higher risk of developing an abnormal 2-h test result. One-hour glycemia ≥ 142 mg/dL had a sensitivity of 91.4% and specificity of 75.1% to identify changes in the test at 2 h; area under the curve to predict 2-h changes was 0.90 (CI 95%: 0.86 - 0.93).

CONCLUSION

Glucose measurement at 1 h predicts alterations at 2 h in the reclassification test with excellent diagnostic accuracy, and the cutoff point of  ≥ 142 mg/dL presents high sensitivity. These findings could serve as a foundation for a possible future redefinition of the OGTT procedure, but further investigation is required.

The Oral Glucose Tolerance Test: 100 Years Later

For over 100 years, the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) has been the cornerstone for detecting prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). In recent decades, controversies have arisen identifying internationally acceptable cut points using fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h post-load glucose (2-h PG), and/or HbA1c for defining intermediate hyperglycemia (prediabetes). Despite this, there has been a steadfast global consensus of the 2-h PG for defining dysglycemic states during the OGTT. This article reviews the history of the OGTT and recent advances in its application, including the glucose challenge test and mathematical modeling for determining the shape of the glucose curve. Pitfalls of the FPG, 2-h PG during the OGTT, and HbA1c are considered as well. Finally, the associations between the 30-minute and 1-hour plasma glucose (1-h PG) levels derived from the OGTT and incidence of diabetes and its complications will be reviewed. The considerable evidence base supports modifying current screening and diagnostic recommendations with the use of the 1-h PG. Measurement of the 1-h PG level could increase the likelihood of identifying high-risk individuals when the pancreatic ß-cell function is substantially more intact with the added practical advantage of potentially replacing the conventional 2-h OGTT making it more acceptable in the clinical setting.

Review of methods for detecting glycemic disorders

Prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycemia) consists of two abnormalities, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) detected by a standardized 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Individuals with isolated IGT or combined IFG and IGT have increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Diagnosing prediabetes early and accurately is critical in order to refer high-risk individuals for intensive lifestyle modification. However, there is currently no international consensus for diagnosing prediabetes with HbA1c or glucose measurements based upon American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria that identify different populations at risk for progressing to diabetes. Various caveats affecting the accuracy of interpreting the HbA1c including genetics complicate this further. This review describes established methods for detecting glucose disorders based upon glucose and HbA1c parameters as well as novel approaches including the 1-hour plasma glucose (1-h PG), glucose challenge test (GCT), shape of the glucose curve, genetics, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity, metabolomics, and ancillary tools such as fructosamine, glycated albumin (GA), 1,5- anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG). Of the approaches considered, the 1-h PG has considerable potential as a biomarker for detecting glucose disorders if confirmed by additional data including health economic analysis. Whether the 1-h OGTT is superior to genetics and omics in providing greater precision for individualized treatment requires further investigation. These methods will need to demonstrate substantially superiority to simpler tools for detecting glucose disorders to justify their cost and complexity.

30-minute postload plasma glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test predict the risk of future type 2 diabetes: the Hisayama Study

INTRODUCTION

To investigate the associations of 30 min postload plasma glucose (30 mPG) levels during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with the risk of future diabetes in a general Japanese population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 2957 Japanese community-dwelling residents without diabetes, aged 40-79 years, participated in the examinations in 2007 and 2008 (participation rate, 77.1%). Among them, 2162 subjects who received 75 g OGTT in a fasting state with measurements of plasma glucose level at 0, 30, and 120 min were followed up for 7 years (2007-2014). Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs of each index for the development of type 2 diabetes using continuous variables and quartiles with adjustment for traditional risk factors. The influence of 30 mPG on the predictive ability was estimated with Harrell's C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the continuous net reclassification index (cNRI).

RESULTS

During follow-up, 275 subjects experienced type 2 diabetes. Elevated 30 mPG levels were significantly associated with increased risk of developing diabetes (p<0.01 for trend): the multivariable-adjusted HR was 8.41 (95% CI 4.97 to 14.24) for the highest versus the lowest quartile, and 2.26 (2.04 to 2.52) per 1 SD increase. This association was attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels. Incorporation of 30 mPG into the model including traditional risk factors with fasting and 2-hour postload plasma glucose levels for diabetes improved the predictive ability of type 2 diabetes (improvement in Harrell's C-statistics values: from 0.828 to 0.839, p<0.01; IDI: 0.016, p<0.01; cNRI: 0.103, p=0.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated 30 mPG levels were associated with increased risk of diabetes, and inclusion of 30 mPG levels significantly improved the predictive ability for future diabetes, suggesting that 30 mPG may be useful for identifying high-risk populations for type 2 diabetes.

Characteristics associated with elevated 1-h plasma glucose levels during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test in non-obese Japanese men

Elevated 1-h plasma glucose (1h-PG; ≥155 mg/dL) during an oral glucose tolerance test is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. However, the metabolic characteristics of non-obese Asians with elevated 1h-PG are unknown. Thus, we studied 59 non-obese Japanese men with normal glucose tolerance. We divided study participants into the Low 1h-PG group (<155 mg/dL) and the High 1h-PG group (≥155 mg/dL). We compared the metabolic characteristics of the groups, including tissue-specific insulin sensitivity measured using a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. Insulinogenic index and adiponectin levels were significantly lower in the High 1h-PG group than in the Low 1h-PG group. Other characteristics, including insulin sensitivity, adiposity and ectopic fat accumulation, were similar between the groups. In conclusion, non-obese Japanese men with high 1h-PG have impaired early-phase insulin secretion and lower adiponectin levels. Insulin resistance and abnormal fat distribution were not evident in this population.

Plasma glucose concentration 60 min post oral glucose load and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: Pathophysiological implications

AIM

The aim of this study was to gain insight into the pathophysiological significance of elevated plasma glucose concentrations (mmol/L) 60 min post oral glucose load in apparently healthy individuals.

METHODS

Comparison of resistance to insulin action and associated cardio-metabolic risk factors in 490 apparently healthy persons, subdivided into those with a plasma glucose concentration 60 min following a 75-g oral glucose challenge of <8.6 versus ⩾8.6.

RESULTS

Insulin resistance was significantly greater in persons with normal glucose tolerance whose 60-min glucose concentration was ⩾8.6, associated with higher blood pressure, plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. Similar differences were seen in persons with impaired fasting glucose, but not in those with impaired glucose tolerance or both impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance. The group whose 60-min glucose was <8.6 (n = 318) contained primarily persons with normal glucose tolerance (88%), whereas the majority of those whose 60-min value was ⩾8.6 (n = 172) had prediabetes (59%) and in particular combined impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance.

CONCLUSION

Plasma glucose concentration of ⩾8.6 mmol/L 60 min post oral glucose identifies higher proportions of combined impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance individuals as well as normal glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glucose individuals with a more adverse cardio-metabolic profile, contributing to observed increased overall risk of type 2 diabetes and other metabolic diseases.

Elevated one hour with normal fasting and 2 h plasma glucose helps to identify those at risk for development of Type2 Diabetes-11 years observational study from south India

AIMS

To compare conversion rates of diabetes in subjects with elevated 1 h plasma glucose (1hrPG) during an OGTT with normal glucose tolerance(NGT) subjects over a period of 11 years.

METHODS

4023 subjects were selected from electronic data base of medical records.233 subjects who were followed up for a period of 11 years were included.160 with isolated prediabetes and their combinations were excluded.The remaining 73 were categorized into group1 NGT (n = 37) and group-2 (n = 36) with elevated 1hrPG.Kaplan Meier curves for incident diabetes and Cox proportional hazard model were compared between groups.

RESULTS

During follow up, 10.8% and 44.4% converted to DM in group1 and group2 (p = 0.003). Elevated 1hrPG was associated with incident diabetes(HR 7.9[95%CI 2.2-28.1](p = 0.001)provided better risk assessment.The adjusted risk of event in subjects with elevated 1hrPG is likely to be 7 times more when compared to NGT.Subjects with elevated1hrPG remained free of diabetes for a median period of 7.6 years (95% CI 5.8-7.8) whereas NGT subjects remained free for 10 years (95% CI 8.5-10.0) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, conversion to DM was higher and risk was 7 times more in subjects with elevated 1hrPG. Elevated 1hrPG during OGTT has to be considered as a distinct entity.

Petition to replace current OGTT criteria for diagnosing prediabetes with the 1-hour post-load plasma glucose ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/L)

Many individuals with prediabetes, as presently defined, will progress to diabetes (T2D) despite the considerable benefit of lifestyle modification. Therefore, it is paramount to screen individuals at increased risk with a more sensitive method capable of identifying prediabetes at an even earlier time point in the lengthy trajectory to T2D. This petition reviews findings demonstrating that the 1-hour (1-h) postload plasma glucose (PG) ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/L) in those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is highly predictive for detecting progression to T2D, micro- and macrovascular complications and mortality in individuals at increased risk. Furthermore, the STOP DIABETES Study documented effective interventions that reduce the future risk of T2D in those with NGT and a 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dl (8·6 mmol/L). The 1-h OGTT represents a valuable opportunity to extend the proven benefit of diabetes prevention to the sizeable and growing population of individuals at increased risk of progression to T2D. The substantial evidence provided in this petition strongly supports redefining current diagnostic criteria for prediabetes with the elevated 1-h PG level. The authors therefore advocate a 1-h OGTT to detect prediabetes and hence, thwart the global diabetes epidemic.

Prediction of Glucose Metabolism Disorder Risk Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: Pilot Study

Background

A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) provides important information about glucose metabolism, although the test is expensive and invasive. Complete OGTT information, such as 1-hour and 2-hour postloading plasma glucose and immunoreactive insulin levels, may be useful for predicting the future risk of diabetes or glucose metabolism disorders (GMD), which includes both diabetes and prediabetes.

Objective

We trained several classification models for predicting the risk of developing diabetes or GMD using data from thousands of OGTTs and a machine learning technique (XGBoost). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) values for the trained classification models are reported, along with the sensitivity and specificity determined by the cutoff values of the Youden index. We compared the performance of the machine learning techniques with logistic regressions (LR), which are traditionally used in medical research studies.

Methods

Data were collected from subjects who underwent multiple OGTTs during comprehensive check-up medical examinations conducted at a single facility in Tokyo, Japan, from May 2006 to April 2017. For each examination, a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines. Given the data, 2 studies were conducted: predicting the risk of developing diabetes (study 1) or GMD (study 2). For each study, to apply supervised machine learning methods, the required label data was prepared. If a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or GMD at least once during the period, then that subject’s data obtained in previous trials were classified into the risk group (y=1). After data processing, 13,581 and 6760 OGTTs were analyzed for study 1 and study 2, respectively. For each study, a randomly chosen subset representing 80% of the data was used for training 9 classification models and the remaining 20% was used for evaluating the models. Three classification models, A to C, used XGBoost with various input variables, some including OGTT data. The other 6 classification models, D to I, used LR for comparison.

Results

For study 1, the AUC values ranged from 0.78 to 0.93. For study 2, the AUC values ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. The machine learning approach using XGBoost showed better performance compared with traditional LR methods. The AUC values increased when the full OGTT variables were included. In our analysis using a particular setting of input variables, XGBoost showed that the OGTT variables were more important than fasting plasma glucose or glycated hemoglobin.

Conclusions

A machine learning approach, XGBoost, showed better prediction accuracy compared with LR, suggesting that advanced machine learning methods are useful for detecting the early signs of diabetes or GMD. The prediction accuracy increased when all OGTT variables were added. This indicates that complete OGTT information is important for predicting the future risk of diabetes and GMD accurately.

β-Cell secretory defects are present in pancreatic insufficient cystic fibrosis with 1-hour oral glucose tolerance test glucose ≥155 mg/dL

BACKGROUND

Patients with pancreatic insufficient cystic fibrosis (PI-CF) meeting standard criteria for normal glucose tolerance display impaired β-cell secretory capacity and early-phase insulin secretion defects. We sought evidence of impaired β-cell secretory capacity, a measure of functional β-cell mass, among those with early glucose intolerance (EGI), defined as 1-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) glucose ≥155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L).

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the Penn and CHOP Clinical & Translational Research Centers. PI-CF categorized by OGTT as normal (PI-NGT: 1-hour glucose <155 mg/dL and 2-hour <140 mg/dL [7.8 mmol/L]; n = 13), PI-EGI (1-hour ≥155 mg/dL and 2-hour <140 mg/dL; n = 13), impaired (PI-IGT: 2-hour ≥140 and <200 mg/dL [11.1 mmol/L]; n = 8), and diabetic (cystic fibrosis-related diabetes, CFRD: 2-hour ≥200 mg/dL; n = 8) participated. Post-prandial glucose tolerance and insulin secretion, and β-cell secretory capacity and demand were derived from mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTTs), and glucose-potentiated arginine (GPA) tests, respectively.

RESULTS

PI-EGI had elevated post-prandial glucose with reduced early-phase insulin secretion during MMTT compared to PI-NGT (P < .05). PI-EGI also exhibited impaired acute insulin and C-peptide responses to GPA (P < .01 vs PI-NGT), measures of β-cell secretory capacity. Proinsulin secretory ratios were higher under hyperglycemic clamp conditions in PI-IGT and CFRD (P < .05 vs PI-NGT), and correlated with 1-hour glucose in PI-CF (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

PI-CF patients with 1-hour OGTT glucose ≥155 mg/dL already manifest impaired β-cell secretory capacity with associated early-phase insulin secretion defects. Avoiding hyperglycemia in patients with EGI may be important for preventing excessive insulin demand indicated by disproportionately increased proinsulin secretion.

One-Hour Postload Hyperglycemia: Implications for Prediction and Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes

CONTEXT

Recently, a value of 1-hour postload glucose concentration (1-h-PG) ≥155 mg/dL (8.6 mmol/L) in individuals with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) has been found to be associated with an increased risk for future type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In this review, we analyze the implication of 1-h-PG determination in prediction of T2DM and cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

A literature search was performed using MEDLINE. We included all English studies published up to February 2018 in peer-reviewed journals that examined the relationship between 1-h-PG and diabetes, cardiometabolic alterations, organ damage, and cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Several longitudinal studies have consistently shown that 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL can recognize individuals at increased risk for future T2DM among subjects with NGT. Additionally, we describe the pathophysiological abnormalities associated with 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL including impaired insulin sensitivity, β-cell dysfunction, and increased glucose intestinal absorption, which are known to be involved in T2DM pathogenesis. Importantly, numerous studies have demonstrated that a value of 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL in individuals with NGT is not only linked to an increased risk for future T2DM, but also able to identify those having a worse cardiovascular phenotype and an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although 1-h-PG determination is not currently recommended by the American Diabetes Association for identifying high-risk individuals, the available evidence indicates that a value of 1-h-PG ≥155 mg/dL may be a useful tool to recognize, among subjects with NGT, those at increased risk of T2DM and cardiovascular disease.

Lessons learned from the 1-hour post-load glucose level during OGTT: Current screening recommendations for dysglycaemia should be revised

This perspective covers a novel area of research describing the inadequacies of current approaches for diagnosing dysglycaemia and proposes that the 1-hour post-load glucose level during the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test may serve as a novel biomarker to detect dysglycaemia earlier than currently recommended screening criteria for glucose disorders. Considerable evidence suggests that a 1-hour post-load plasma glucose value ≥155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/L) may identify individuals with reduced β-cell function prior to progressing to prediabetes and diabetes and is highly predictive of those likely to progress to diabetes more than the HbA_1c or 2-hour post-load glucose values. An elevated 1-hour post-load glucose level was a better predictor of type 2 diabetes than isolated 2-hour post-load levels in Indian, Japanese, and Israeli and Nordic populations. Furthermore, epidemiological studies have shown that a 1-hour PG ≥155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/L) predicted progression to diabetes as well as increased risk for microvascular disease and mortality when the 2-hour level was <140 mg/dl (7.8 mmol/L). The risk of myocardial infarction or fatal ischemic heart disease was also greater among subjects with elevated 1-hour glucose levels as were risks of retinopathy and peripheral vascular complications in a Swedish cohort. The authors believe that the considerable evidence base supports redefining current screening and diagnostic recommendations with the 1-hour post-load level. Measurement of the 1-hour PG level would increase the likelihood of identifying a larger, high-risk group with the additional practical advantage of potentially replacing the conventional 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test making it more acceptable in a clinical setting.

One-Hour Plasma Glucose Compared With Two-Hour Plasma Glucose in Relation to Diabetic Retinopathy in American Indians

OBJECTIVE

We compared the ability of 1- and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations (1h-PG and 2h-PG, respectively), derived from a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), to predict retinopathy. 1h-PG and 2h-PG concentrations, measured in a longitudinal study of an American Indian community in the southwestern U.S., a population at high risk for type 2 diabetes, were analyzed to assess the usefulness of the 1h-PG to identify risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Cross-sectional (n = 2,895) and longitudinal (n = 1,703) cohorts were assessed for the prevalence and incidence of DR, respectively, in relation to deciles of 1h-PG and 2h-PG concentrations. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 1h-PG and 2h-PG were compared with regard to predicting DR, as assessed by direct ophthalmoscopy.

RESULTS

Prevalence and incidence of DR, based on direct ophthalmoscopy, changed in a similar manner across the distributions of 1h-PG and 2h-PG concentrations. ROC analysis showed that 1h-PG and 2h-PG were of similar value in identifying prevalent and incident DR using direct ophthalmoscopy. 1h-PG cut points of 230 and 173 mg/dL were comparable to 2h-PG cut points of 200 mg/dL (type 2 diabetes) and 140 mg/dL (impaired glucose tolerance), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

1h-PG is a useful predictor of retinopathy risk, has a predictive value similar to that of 2h-PG, and may be considered as an alternative glucose time point during an OGTT.

Insulin Secretion and Risk for Future Diabetes in Subjects with a Nonpositive Insulinogenic Index

AIM

To characterize subjects with a nonpositive insulinogenic index and longitudinally observe changes in their glucose tolerance.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A historical cohort study was conducted using data from the medical checkups of public school workers. Indices of insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity derived from oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and the incidences of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) were compared among subgroups of subjects with different insulinogenic index (change in insulin/change in glucose over the first 30 min on the OGTT).

RESULTS

Of the 1464 nondiabetic subjects at baseline, 72 (4.9%) subjects had a nonpositive insulinogenic index: 42 of those subjects had a nonpositive glucose response (ΔGlu_0-30 ≤ 0) and 30 had a nonpositive insulin response (ΔIns_0-30 ≤ 0). Compared with subjects who had normal glucose tolerance (NGT) with insulinogenic index ≥ 0.4, subjects with a nonpositive glucose response had a higher first-phase Stumvoll and lower incidences of diabetes and IGT based on a log-rank test (p < 0.05), whereas subjects with a nonpositive insulin response had lower indices of insulin secretion and a higher incidence of diabetes (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that in the first 30 min on the OGTT, subjects with a nonpositive insulinogenic index due to a nonpositive glucose response (ΔGlu_0-30 ≤ 0) had a lower risk for future diabetes and that subjects with nonpositive insulin response (ΔIns_0-30 ≤ 0) had a higher risk for future one.

Postchallenge hyperglycemia in subjects with low body weight: implication for small glucose volume

A hypothesis that postchallenge hyperglycemia in subjects with low body weight (BW) may be due, in part, to small glucose volume (G_V) was tested. We studied 11,411 nondiabetic subjects with a mean BW of 63.3 kg; 5,282 of them were followed for a mean of 5.3 yr. In another group of 1,537 nondiabetic subjects, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and a product of the two (index of whole body insulin action) were determined. Corrected 2 h-plasma glucose (2hPG_corr) during a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test in subjects with BW ≤ 59 kg was calculated as 2hPG_corr = δPG_2h · ECW/[16.1 (males) or 15.3 (females)] + fasting PG (FPG), where δPG_2h is plasma glucose increment in 2 h; ECW is extracellular water (surrogate of G_V); FPG is fasting plasma glucose; and 16.1 and 15.3 are ECW of men and women, respectively, with BW = 59 kg. Multivariate analyses for BW with adjustment for age, sex, and percent body fat were undertaken. BW was, across its entire range, positively correlated with FPG (P < 0.01). Whereas BW was correlated with 2hPG and δPG in a skewed J-shape, with inflections at around 60 kg (P for nonlinearity < 0.01 for each). Nonetheless, in those with BW ≤ 59 kg, insulin sensitivity, secretion, and action were unattenuated, and incident diabetes was less compared with heavier counterparts. BW was linearly correlated with 2hPG_corr, i.e., the J-shape correlation was mitigated by the correction. In conclusion, postchallenge hyperglycemia in low BW subjects is in part due to small G_V rather than impaired glucose metabolism.

One-hour and two-hour postload plasma glucose concentrations are comparable predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Southwestern Native Americans

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Elevated 2-h plasma glucose concentration (2 h-PG) during a 75 g OGTT predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1 h-PG) is associated with insulin secretion and may be a better predictor of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association between 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG using gold standard methods for measuring insulin secretion and action. We also compared 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG as predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

This analysis included adult volunteers without diabetes, predominantly Native Americans of Southwestern heritage, who were involved in a longitudinal epidemiological study from 1965 to 2007, with a baseline OGTT that included measurement of 1 h-PG. Group 1 (n = 716) underwent an IVGTT and hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp for measurement of acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin-stimulated glucose disposal (M), respectively. Some members of Group 1 (n = 490 of 716) and members of a second, larger, group (Group 2; n = 1946) were followed-up to assess the development of type 2 diabetes (median 9.0 and 12.8 years follow-up, respectively).

RESULTS

Compared with 2 h-PG (r = -0.281), 1 h-PG (r = -0.384) was more closely associated with AIR, whereas, compared with 1 h-PG (r = -0.340), 2 h-PG (r = -0.408) was more closely associated with M. Measures of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG had similar abilities to predict type 2 diabetes, which did not change when both were included in the model. A 1 h-PG cut-off of 9.3 mmol/l provided similar levels of sensitivity and specificity as a 2 h-PG cut-off of 7.8 mmol/l; the latter is used to define impaired glucose tolerance, a recognised predictor of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The 1 h-PG was associated with important physiological predictors of type 2 diabetes and was as effective as 2 h-PG for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus. The 1 h-PG is, therefore, an alternative method of identifying individuals with an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Predictive models for conversion of prediabetes to diabetes

AIM

To clarify the natural course of prediabetes and develop predictive models for conversion to diabetes.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal study of 2105 adults with prediabetes was carried out with a mean observation period of 4.7years. Models were developed using multivariate logistic regression analysis and verified by 10-fold cross-validation. The relationship between [final BMI minus baseline BMI] (δBMI) and incident diabetes was analyzed post hoc by comparing the diabetes conversion rate for low (< -0.31kg/m²) and high δBMI (≥ -0.31kg/m²) subjects after matching the two groups for the covariates.

RESULTS

Diabetes developed in 252 (2.5%/year), and positive family history, male sex, higher systolic blood pressure, plasma glucose (fasting and 1h- and 2h-values during 75g OGTT), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and alanine aminotransferase were significant, independent predictors for the conversion. By using a risk score (RS) that took account of all these variables, incident diabetes was predicted with an area under the ROC curve (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.70-0.87) and a specificity of prediction of 61.8% at 80% sensitivity. On division of the participants into high- (n=248), intermediate- (n=336) and low-risk (n=1521) populations, the conversion rates were 40.1%, 18.5% and 5.9%, respectively. The conversion rate was lower in subjects with low than high δBMI (9.2% vs 14.4%, p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes conversion to diabetes could be predicted with accuracy, and weight reduction during the observation was associated with lowered conversion rate.

Reducing the prevalence of dysglycemia: is the time ripe to test the effectiveness of intervention in high-risk individuals with elevated 1 h post-load glucose levels?

Identifying the earliest time point on the prediabetic continuum is critical to avoid progressive deterioration in β-cell function. Progressively rising glucose levels even within the "normal range" occur considerably late in the evolution to diabetes thus presenting an important opportunity for earlier diagnosis, treatment, and possible reversal. An elevated 1 h postprandial glucose level, not detected by current diagnostic standards, may provide an opportunity for the early identification of those at risk. When the 1 h post-load glucose level is elevated, lifestyle intervention may have the greatest benefit for preserving β-cell function and prevent further progression to prediabetes and diabetes. In view of the considerable consistent epidemiologic data in large disparate populations supporting the predictive capacity of the1 h post-load value for predicting progression to diabetes and mortality, the time is therefore ripe to evaluate this hypothesis in a large, prospective multicenter randomized trial with lifestyle intervention.

Trajectories of Postload Plasma Glucose in the Development of Type 2 Diabetes in Japanese Adults

We aimed to clarify how the trajectories of 1-hour postload plasma glucose (PG) and 2-hour PG were different in the development of type 2 diabetes. Using data of repeated health checkups in Japanese workers from April 2006 to March 2016, longitudinal changes of fasting, 1-hour, and 2-hour PG on the oral glucose tolerance test were analyzed with a linear mixed effects model. Of the 1464 nondiabetic subjects at baseline, 112 subjects progressed to type 2 diabetes during the observation period (progressors). In progressors, 1-hour PG and 2-hour PG showed gradual increases with slopes of 1.33 ± 0.2 and 0.58 ± 0.2 mg/dL/year, respectively, followed by a steep increase by which they attained diabetes. Until immediately before the diabetes transition, age- and sex-adjusted mean level of 2-hour PG was 149 ± 2.7 mg/dL, 34 ± 2.7 (30%) higher compared to nonprogressors, while that of 1-hour PG was 206 ± 4.1 mg/dL, 60 ± 4.3 mg/dL (41%) higher compared to nonprogressors. In conclusion, diabetes transition was preceded by a mild elevation of 2-hour PG for several years or more. The elevation in 1-hour PG was larger than that of 2-hour PG until immediately before the transition to diabetes.

Development of new diabetes risk scores on the basis of the current definition of diabetes in Japanese subjects [Rapid Communication]

To develop diabetes risk score (RS) based on the current definition of diabetes, we retrospectively analyzed consecutive 4,159 health examinees who were non-diabetic at baseline. Diabetes, diagnosed by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), developed in 279 of them during the mean period of 4.9 years. A full RS (RS_Full), a RS without 2hPG (RS_-2hPG) and a non-invasive RS (RS_NI) were created on the basis of multivariate Cox proportional model by weighted grading based on hazard ratio in half the persons assigned. The RSs were verified in the remaining half of the participants. Positive family history (FH), male sex, smoking and higher age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c were independent predictors for RS_Full. For RS_-2hPG, 7 independent predictors, exclusive of 2hPG and smoking but inclusive of elevated triglycerides (TG) comparing to RS_Full, were selected. FH, male sex, and higher age, SBP and HbA1c were independent predictors in RS_NI. In the validation cohort, C-statistic (95%CI) of RS_Full, RS_-2hPG and RS_NI were 0.80 (0.76-0.84), 0.75 (0.70-0.78) and 0.68 (0.63-0.72), respectively, which were significantly different from each other (P <0.01). Absolute percentage difference between predicted probability and observed diabetes were 1.9%, 0.7% and 0.9%, by the three scores, respectively, and not significantly different from each other. In conclusion, diabetes defined by the current criteria was predicted by the new diabetes risk scores with reasonable accuracy. Nonetheless, RS_Full with a postchallenge glucose value performed superior to RS_-2hPG and RS_NI.

The 1-hour post-load glucose level is more effective than HbA1c for screening dysglycemia

AIM

To assess the performance of HbA1c and the 1-h plasma glucose (PG ≥ 155 mg/dl; 8.6 mmol/l) in identifying dysglycemia based on the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) from a real-world clinical care setting.

METHODS

This was a diagnostic test accuracy study. For this analysis, we tested the HbA1c diagnostic criteria advocated by the American Diabetes Association (ADA 5.7-6.4 %) and International Expert Committee (IEC 6.0-6.4 %) against conventional OGTT criteria. We also tested the utility of 1-h PG ≥ mg/dl; 8.6 mmol/l. Prediabetes was defined according to ADA-OGTT guidelines. Spearman correlation tests were used to determine the relationships between HbA1c, 1-h PG with fasting, 2-h PG and indices of insulin sensitivity and β-cell function. The levels of agreement between diagnostic methods were ascertained using Cohen's kappa coefficient (Κ). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the performance of the HbA1c and 1-h PG test in identifying prediabetes considering OGTT as reference diagnostic criteria. The diagnostic properties of different HbA1c thresholds were contrasted by determining sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios (LR).

RESULTS

Of the 212 high-risk individuals, 70 (33 %) were identified with prediabetes, and 1-h PG showed a stronger association with 2-h PG, insulin sensitivity index, and β-cell function than HbA1c (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the level of agreement between 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/l) and the OGTT (Κ[95 % CI]: 0.40[0.28-0.53]) diagnostic test was stronger than that of ADA-HbA1c criteria 0.1[0.03-0.16] and IEC criteria (0.17[0.04-0.30]). The ROC (AUC[95 % CI]) for HbA1c and 1-h PG were 0.65[0.57-0.73] and 0.79[0.72-0.85], respectively. Importantly, 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/l) showed good sensitivity (74.3 % [62.4-84.0]) and specificity 69.7 % [61.5-77.1]) with a LR of 2.45. The ability of 1-h PG to discriminate prediabetes was better than that of HbA1c (∆AUC: -0.14; Z value: 2.5683; P = 0.01022).

CONCLUSION

In a real-world clinical practice setting, the 1-h PG ≥ 155 mg/dl (8.6 mmol/l) is superior for detecting high-risk individuals compared with HbA1c. Furthermore, HbA1c is a less precise correlate of insulin sensitivity and β-cell function than the 1-h PG and correlates poorly with the 2-h PG during the OGTT.