Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species

Integrative taxonomy clarifies the evolution of a cryptic primate clade

Global biodiversity is under accelerating threats, and species are succumbing to extinction before being described. Madagascar's biota represents an extreme example of this scenario, with the added complication that much of its endemic biodiversity is cryptic. Here we illustrate best practices for clarifying cryptic diversification processes by presenting an integrative framework that leverages multiple lines of evidence and taxon-informed cut-offs for species delimitation, while placing special emphasis on identifying patterns of isolation by distance. We systematically apply this framework to an entire taxonomically controversial primate clade, the mouse lemurs (genus Microcebus, family Cheirogaleidae). We demonstrate that species diversity has been overestimated primarily due to the interpretation of geographic variation as speciation, potentially biasing inference of the underlying processes of evolutionary diversification. Following a revised classification, we find that crypsis within the genus is best explained by a model of morphological stasis imposed by stabilizing selection and a neutral process of niche diversification. Finally, by clarifying species limits and defining evolutionarily significant units, we provide new conservation priorities, bridging fundamental and applied objectives in a generalizable framework.

Exploring Paleogene Tibet's warm temperate environments through target enrichment and phylogenetic niche modelling of Himalayan spiny frogs (Paini, Dicroglossidae)

The Cenozoic topographic development of the Himalaya-Tibet orogen (HTO) substantially affected the paleoenvironment and biodiversity patterns of High Asia. However, concepts on the evolution and paleoenvironmental history of the HTO differ massively in timing, elevational increase and sequence of surface uplift of the different elements of the orogen. Using target enrichment of a large set of transcriptome-derived markers, ancestral range estimation and paleoclimatic niche modelling, we assess a recently proposed concept of a warm temperate paleo-Tibet in Asian spiny frogs of the tribe Paini and reconstruct their historical biogeography. That concept was previously developed in invertebrates. Because of their early evolutionary origin, low dispersal capacity, high degree of local endemism, and strict dependence on temperature and humidity, the cladogenesis of spiny frogs may echo the evolution of the HTO paleoenvironment. We show that diversification of main lineages occurred during the early to Mid-Miocene, while the evolution of alpine taxa started during the late Miocene/early Pliocene. Our distribution and niche modelling results indicate range shifts and niche stability that may explain the modern disjunct distributions of spiny frogs. They probably maintained their (sub)tropical or (warm)temperate preferences and moved out of the ancestral paleo-Tibetan area into the Himalaya as the climate shifted, as opposed to adapting in situ. Based on ancestral range estimation, we assume the existence of low-elevation, climatically suitable corridors across paleo-Tibet during the Miocene along the Kunlun, Qiangtang and/or Gangdese Shan. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and processes of faunal evolution in the HTO.

Fragile futures: Evaluating habitat and climate change response of hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) in the conservation landscape of mainland Asia

The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of mammalian species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship mammalian species for conservation. However, small mammals such as the hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) remain understudied regarding the impacts of climate change in Asia. The present study offers a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on two mainland hog badger species, utilizing ensemble species distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, as only 52% of the IUCN extent is deemed suitable for the Great Hog Badger (Arctonyx collaris) and a mere 17% is ideal for the Northern Hog Badger (Arctonyx albogularis). Notably, projections suggest a potential reduction of over 26% in suitable areas for both species under future climate scenarios, with the most severe decline anticipated in the high-emission scenario of SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. collaris, whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting with the relatively stable patches of A. albogularis. However, despite their differences, niche overlap analysis reveals an intriguing increase in overlap between the two species, indicating potential ecological shifts. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation considerations into conservation strategies, urging a reassessment of the IUCN status of A. albogularis. The insights gained from this research are crucial for improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards and maintaining ecological corridors between viable habitat patches, which are essential for the conservation of hog badgers across mainland Asia. Furthermore, emphasizing the urgency of proactive efforts, particularly in countries with suitable habitats can help safeguard these small mammalian species and their ecosystems from the detrimental impacts of climate change.

Identifying the abiotic factors that determine the inland range limits of a mesic-adapted lizard species

For most species, the factors that determine geographical range limits are unknown. In mesic-adapted species, populations occurring near the edge of the species' distribution provide ideal study systems to investigate what limits distributional ranges. We aimed to identify the abiotic constraints that preclude an east-Australian mesic-adapted lizard (Lampropholis delicata) from occupying arid environments. We performed lizard surveys at sites spanning an elevation/aridity gradient (380-1070 m) and measured the prevalence of habitat features (logs, rocks, leaf litter, bare ground, solar radiation) in addition to hourly temperatures in a variety of microhabitats available to lizards. Species distribution models (SDM) were used to identify the macroclimatic variables limiting the species' distribution. At its inland range limit, L. delicata is associated with mesic high-elevation forests with complex microhabitat structures, which gradually decline in availability toward lower (and more arid) elevations where the species is absent. Moreover, L. delicata is absent from sites with a shallow leaf litter layer, in which daily temperatures exceed the species' thermal preference range, which we determined in a laboratory thermal gradient. In regards to macroclimate, SDM revealed that temperature seasonality is the primary variable predicting the species' distribution, suggesting that L. delicata avoids inland areas owing to their high annual thermal variability. By combining multiple lines of evidence, this research highlights that habitat and microclimate suitability-not solely macroclimate suitability-are important range-limiting factors for mesic ectotherms and should be incorporated in studies addressing range-limiting hypotheses.

The exposure of the world's mountains to global change drivers

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

Snow cover-related camouflage mismatch increases detection by predators

Camouflage expressed by animals is an adaptation to local environments that certain animals express to maximize survival and fitness. Animals at higher latitudes change their coat color according to a seasonally changing environment, expressing a white coat in winter and a darker coat in summer. The timing of molting is tightly linked to the appearance and disappearance of snow and is mainly regulated by photoperiod. However, due to climate change, an increasing mismatch is observed between the coat color of these species and their environment. Here, we conducted an experiment in northern Sweden, with white and brown decoys to study how camouflage (mis)-match influenced (1) predator attraction to decoys, and (2) predation events. Using camera trap data, we showed that mismatching decoys attracted more predators and experienced a higher likelihood of predation events in comparison to matching decoys, suggesting that camouflage mismatched animals experience increased detection by predators. These results provide insight into the function of a seasonal color coat and the need for this adaptation to maximize fitness in an environment that is exposed to high seasonality. Thus, our results suggest that, with increasing climate change and reduced snow cover, animals expressing a seasonal color coat will experience a decrease in survival.

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Topography influences diurnal and seasonal microclimate fluctuations in hilly terrain environments of coastal California

Understanding the topographic basis for microclimatic variation remains fundamental to predicting the site level effects of warming air temperatures. Quantifying diurnal fluctuation and seasonal extremes in relation to topography offers insight into the potential relationship between site level conditions and changes in regional climate. The present study investigated an annual understory temperature regime for 50 sites distributed across a topographically diverse area (>12 km2) comprised of mixed evergreen-deciduous woodland vegetation typical of California coastal ranges. We investigated the effect of topography and tree cover on site-to-site variation in near-surface temperatures using a combination of multiple linear regression and multivariate techniques. Sites in topographically depressed areas (e.g., valley bottoms) exhibited larger seasonal and diurnal variation. Elevation (at 10 m resolution) was found to be the primary driver of daily and seasonal variations, in addition to hillslope position, canopy cover and northness. The elevation effect on seasonal mean temperatures was inverted, reflecting large-scale cold-air pooling in the study region, with elevated minimum and mean temperature at higher elevations. Additionally, several of our sites showed considerable buffering (dampened diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations) compared to average regional conditions measured at an on-site weather station. Results from this study help inform efforts to extrapolate temperature records across large landscapes and have the potential to improve our ecological understanding of fine-scale seasonal climate variation in coastal range environments.

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Scaling procedures in climate science: Using temporal scaling to identify a paleoclimate analogue

Using past episodes of climate change as a source of evidence to inform our projections about contemporary climate change requires establishing the extent to which episodes in the deep past are analogous to the current crisis. However, many scientists claim that contemporary rates of climate change (e.g., rates of carbon emissions or temperature change) are unprecedented, including compared to episodes in the deep past. If so, this would limit the utility of paleoclimate analogues. In this paper, I show how a data adjustment procedure called "temporal scaling," which must be applied to both contemporary and past rate data, complicates the claim that contemporary rates are truly unprecedented. On top of giving actionable recommendations to scientists, this paper advances the philosophical literature concerning the use of models that are known to be somewhat disanalogous to their target systems.

Physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than climatic niches in plants

Understanding how plants respond to thermal stress is central to predicting plant responses and community dynamics in natural ecosystems under projected scenarios of climate change. Although physiological tolerance is suggested to evolve slower than climatic niches, this comparison remains to be addressed in plants using a phylogenetic comparative approach. In this study, we compared i) the evolutionary rates of physiological tolerance to extreme temperatures with ii) the corresponding rates of climatic niche across three major vascular plant groups. We further accounted for the potential effects of hardening when examining the association between physiological and climatic niche rates. We found that physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than heat tolerance in all three groups. The coldest climatic-niche temperatures evolve faster than the warmest climatic-niche temperatures. Importantly, evolutionary rates of physiological cold tolerance were faster than rates of change in climatic niches. However, an inverse association between physiological cold tolerance and responding climatic niche for plants without hardening was detected. Our results indicated that plants may be sensitive to changes in warmer temperatures due to the slower evolutionary rates of heat tolerance. This pattern has deep implications for the framework that is being used to estimate climate-related extinctions over the upcoming century.

Time to Step Up Conservation: Climate Change Will Further Reduce the Suitable Habitats for the Vulnerable Species Marbled Polecat (Vormela peregusna)

Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 10⁴ km², suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals.

Shifts in the Distribution Range and Niche Dynamics of the Globally Threatened Western Tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus) Due to Climate Change and Human Population Pressure

The impact of a changing climate, particularly global warming, often harms the distribution of pheasants, particularly those with limited endemic ranges. To effectively create plans of action aimed at conserving species facing threats such as the Western Tragopan, (Tragopan melanocephalus; Gray, 1829; Galliformes, found in the western Himalayas), it is crucial to understand how future distributions may be affected by anticipated climate change. This study utilized MaxEnt modeling to assess how suitable the habitat of the targeted species is likely to be under different climate scenarios. While similar studies have been conducted regionally, there has been no research on this particular endemic animal species found in the western Himalayas throughout the entire distribution range. The study utilized a total of 200 occurrence points; 19 bioclimatic, four anthropogenic, three topographic, and a vegetation variable were also used. To determine the most fitting model, species distribution modeling (SDM) was employed, and the MaxEnt calibration and optimization techniques were utilized. Data for projected climate scenarios of the 2050s and 2070s were obtained from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585. Among all the variables analyzed; aspect, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean diurnal range, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation of driest month, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, human footprint, precipitation of driest quarter, and temperature annual range were recognized as the most influential drivers, in that order. The predicted scenarios had high accuracy values (AUC-ROC > 0.9). Based on the feedback provided by the inhabitants, it was observed that the livability of the selected species could potentially rise (between 3.7 to 13%) in all projected scenarios of climate change, because this species is relocating towards the northern regions of the elevation gradient, which is farther from the residential areas, and their habitats are shrinking. The suitable habitats of the Tragopan melanocephalus in the Himalayan region will move significantly by 725 m upwards, because of predicted climate change. However, the fact that the species is considered extinct in most areas and only found in small patches suggests that further research is required to avert a further population decline and delineate the reasons leading to the regional extinction of the species. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for devising conservation strategies for Tragopan melanocephalus under the changing climate and provide a framework for subsequent surveillance efforts aimed at protecting the species.

Enzymatic responses reveal different physiological strategies employed by eurytolerant fish during extreme hot and cold cycling acclimation temperatures

Heat waves and cold snaps are projected to rise in magnitude, duration, interval, and harshness in the coming years. The current literature examining thermal impacts on the physiology of organisms rarely uses chronic, variable thermal acclimations despite the fact that climate change predictions project a more variable environment. If we are to determine species' susceptibility to climate change, chronic and variable lab acclimations should be prioritized. Here, we acclimated the eurytolerant sheepshead minnow (Cyprinodon variegatus) to two extreme cycling thermal regimes: one warm [resting 27 °C with a spike to 33 °C for 8 h daily], one cold [resting 6.5 °C with a spike to 12 °C for 8 h daily], and three chronically stable conditions (10, 22, and 30 °C) for comparison. We measured enzymatic antioxidants (catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx)), total antioxidant capacity, lipid peroxidation (LPO) damage, and citrate synthase (CS) activity in white epaxial muscle. Of particular note, we found significant increases in log CAT activity and SOD concentration in the warm cycling temperatures, and significant increases in GPx activity in the cold cycling temperatures. We found no significant accumulation of LPO damage in any of our thermal acclimation treatments. Thus, sheepshead minnows demonstrate two particularly different mechanisms towards dealing with thermal variation in low and high temperatures. The enzymatic differences between low and high cycling temperatures may define pathways of eurytolerant organisms and how they may survive predicted variability in thermal regimes.

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

Climatic envelopes of the genus Lacerta Linnaeus, 1758 in Türkiye: an application of ecological niche modeling

Six species belonging to the genus Lacerta live in Türkiye. In this study, both present and future potential distribution maps were created based on occurrence data and climatic variables for these six species. Two scenarios for future projections (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs,: 245 and 585) and two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) were used. The present and future potential distributions of these species were compared. As a result, it was predicted that the distribution ranges in the six species will expand in the future, and this expansion has revealed new environments.

Evolutionary rescue and geographic range shifts under climate change for global amphibians

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic range shifts by coupling ecological niche models and eco-evolutionary mechanisms, aiming to assess the probability of evolutionary rescue (i.e., rapid adaptation) and dispersal under climate change. Evolutionary models estimated the probability of population persistence by adapting to changes in the temperature influenced by precipitation in the following decades, while compensating the fitness reduction and maintaining viable populations in the new climates. In addition, we evaluated emerging patterns of species richness and turnover at the assemblage level. Our approach was able to identify which amphibian populations among 7,193 species at the global scale could adapt to temperature changes or disperse into suitable regions in the future. Without evolutionary adaptation and dispersal, 47.7% of the species could go extinct until the year 2,100, whereas adding both processes will slightly decrease this extinction rate to 36.5%. Although adaptation to climate is possible for populations in about 25.7% of species, evolutionary rescue is the only possibility to avoid extinction in 4.2% of them. Dispersal will allow geographic range shifts for 49.7% of species, but only 6.5% may avoid extinction by reaching climatically suitable environments. This reconfiguration of species distributions and their persistence creates new assemblage-level patterns at the local scale. Temporal beta-diversity across the globe showed relatively low levels of species turnover, mainly due to the loss of species. Despite limitations with obtaining data, our approach provides more realistic assessments of species responses to ongoing climate changes. It shows that, although dispersal and evolutionary rescue may attenuate species losses, they are not enough to avoid a significant reduction of species’ geographic ranges in the future. Actions that guarantee a higher potential of adaptation (e.g., genetic diversity through larger population sizes) and increased connectivity for species dispersion to track suitable climates become essential, increasing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change.

Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries

Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.

Heat tolerance limits of Mediterranean songbirds and their current and future vulnerabilities to temperature extremes

Songbirds are one of the groups most vulnerable to extreme heat events. Although several recent studies have assessed their physiological responses to heat, most of them have focused solely on arid-zone species. We investigated thermoregulatory responses to heat in eight small-sized songbirds occurring in the Mediterranean Basin, where heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense. Specifically, we determined their heat tolerance limits (HTLs) and evaporative cooling efficiency, and evaluated their current and future vulnerabilities to heat in southwestern Iberia, a Mediterranean climate warming hotspot. To do this, we exposed birds to an increasing profile of air temperatures (Ta) and measured resting metabolic rate (RMR), evaporative water loss (EWL), evaporative cooling efficiency (the ratio between evaporative heat loss and metabolic heat production) and body temperature (Tb). HTL ranged between 40 and 46°C across species, and all species showed rapid increases in RMR, EWL and Tb in response to increasing Ta. However, only the crested lark (Galerida cristata) achieved an evaporative cooling efficiency greater than 1. The studied songbirds currently experience summer Ta maxima that surpass the upper critical temperatures of their thermoneutral zone and even their HTL. Our estimates indicate that five of the eight species will experience moderate risk of lethal dehydration by the end of the century. We argue that the limited heat tolerance and evaporative cooling efficiency of small-sized Mediterranean songbirds make them particularly vulnerable to heatwaves, which will be exacerbated under future climate change scenarios.

Global warming pushes the distribution range of the two alpine 'glasshouse' Rheum species north- and upwards in the Eastern Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains

Alpine plants' distribution is being pushed higher towards mountaintops due to global warming, finally diminishing their range and thereby increasing the risk of extinction. Plants with specialized 'glasshouse' structures have adapted well to harsh alpine environments, notably to the extremely low temperatures, which makes them vulnerable to global warming. However, their response to global warming is quite unexplored. Therefore, by compiling occurrences and several environmental strata, we utilized multiple ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM) to estimate the historical, present-day, and future distribution of two alpine 'glasshouse' species Rheum nobile Hook. f. & Thomson and R. alexandrae Batalin. Rheum nobile was predicted to extend its distribution from the Eastern Himalaya (EH) to the Hengduan Mountains (HM), whereas R. alexandrae was restricted exclusively in the HM. Both species witnessed a northward expansion of suitable habitats followed by a southerly retreat in the HM region. Our findings reveal that both species have a considerable range shift under different climate change scenarios, mainly triggered by precipitation rather than temperature. The model predicted northward and upward migration for both species since the last glacial period which is mainly due to expected future climate change scenarios. Further, the observed niche overlap between the two species presented that they are more divergent depending on their habitat, except for certain regions in the HM. However, relocating appropriate habitats to the north and high elevation may not ensure the species' survival, as it needs to adapt to the extreme climatic circumstances in alpine habitats. Therefore, we advocate for more conservation efforts in these biodiversity hotspots.

Biological control needs evolutionary perspectives of ecological interactions

While ecological interactions have been identified as determinant for biological control efficiency, the role of evolution remains largely underestimated in biological control programs. With the restrictions on the use of both pesticides and exotic biological control agents (BCAs), the evolutionary optimization of local BCAs becomes central for improving the efficiency and the resilience of biological control. In particular, we need to better account for the natural processes of evolution to fully understand the interactions of pests and BCAs, including in biocontrol strategies integrating human manipulations of evolution (i.e., artificial selection and genetic engineering). In agroecosystems, the evolution of BCAs traits and performance depends on heritable phenotypic variation, trait genetic architecture, selection strength, stochastic processes, and other selective forces. Humans can manipulate these natural processes to increase the likelihood of evolutionary trait improvement, by artificially increasing heritable phenotypic variation, strengthening selection, controlling stochastic processes, or overpassing evolution through genetic engineering. We highlight these facets by reviewing recent studies addressing the importance of natural processes of evolution and human manipulations of these processes in biological control. We then discuss the interactions between the natural processes of evolution occurring in agroecosystems and affecting the artificially improved BCAs after their release. We emphasize that biological control cannot be summarized by interactions between species pairs because pests and biological control agents are entangled in diverse communities and are exposed to a multitude of deterministic and stochastic selective forces that can change rapidly in direction and intensity. We conclude that the combination of different evolutionary approaches can help optimize BCAs to remain efficient under changing environmental conditions and, ultimately, favor agroecosystem sustainability.

Following the niche: the differential impact of the last glacial maximum on four European ungulates

Predicting the effects of future global changes on species requires a better understanding of the ecological niche dynamics in response to climate; the large climatic fluctuations of the last 50,000 years can be used as a natural experiment to that aim. Here we test whether the realized niche of horse, aurochs, red deer, and wild boar changed between 47,000 and 7500 years ago using paleoecological modelling over an extensive archaeological database. We show that they all changed their niche, with species-specific responses to climate fluctuations. We also suggest that they survived the climatic turnovers thanks to their flexibility and by expanding their niche in response to the extinction of competitors and predators. Irrespective of the mechanism behind such processes, the fact that species with long generation times can change their niche over thousands of years cautions against assuming it to stay constant both when reconstructing the past and predicting the future.

European megafaunal ungulates living in open habitats over the last 50,000 years showed evidence for niche change, possibly driven by climatic change and extinction of competitors and predators

Evaluation of animal and plant diversity suggests Greenland’s thaw hastens the biodiversity crisis

Rising temperatures can lead to the occurrence of a large-scale climatic event, such as the melting of Greenland ice sheet, weakening the AMOC and further increasing dissimilarities between current and future climate. The impacts of such an event are still poorly assessed. Here, we evaluate those impacts across megadiverse countries on 21,146 species of tetrapods and vascular plants using the pessimistic climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) and four different scenarios of Greenland’s ice sheet melting. We show that RCP 8.5 emission scenario would lead to a widespread reduction in species’ geographic ranges (28–48%), which is projected to be magnified (58–99%) with any added contribution from the melting of Greenland. Also, declines in the potential geographical extent of species hotspots (12–89%) and alterations of species composition (19–91%) will be intensified. These results imply that the influence of a strong and rapid Greenland ice sheet melting, resulting in a large AMOC weakening, can lead to a faster collapse of biodiversity across the globe.

The Effect of Thermally Robust Ballistic Mechanisms on Climatic Niche in Salamanders

Many organismal functions are temperature-dependent due to the contractile properties of muscle. Spring-based mechanisms offer a thermally robust alternative to temperature-sensitive muscular movements and may correspondingly expand a species' climatic niche by partially decoupling the relationship between temperature and performance. Using the ballistic tongues of salamanders as a case study, we explore whether the thermal robustness of elastic feeding mechanisms increases climatic niche breadth, expands geographic range size, and alters the dynamics of niche evolution. Combining phylogenetic comparative methods with global climate data, we find that the feeding mechanism imparts no discernable signal on either climatic niche properties or the evolutionary dynamics of most climatic niche parameters. Although biomechanical innovation in feeding influences many features of whole-organism performance, it does not appear to drive macro-climatic niche evolution in salamanders. We recommend that future work incorporate micro-scale environmental data to better capture the conditions that salamanders experience, and we discuss a few outstanding questions in this regard. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for an investigation into the evolutionary relationships between climatic niche and biomechanical traits in ectotherms.

Twenty-first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward

This article presents outcomes from a Workshop entitled "Bioarchaeology: Taking Stock and Moving Forward," which was held at Arizona State University (ASU) on March 6-8, 2020. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the School of Human Evolution and Social Change (ASU), and the Center for Bioarchaeological Research (CBR, ASU), the Workshop's overall goal was to explore reasons why research proposals submitted by bioarchaeologists, both graduate students and established scholars, fared disproportionately poorly within recent NSF Anthropology Program competitions and to offer advice for increasing success. Therefore, this Workshop comprised 43 international scholars and four advanced graduate students with a history of successful grant acquisition, primarily from the United States. Ultimately, we focused on two related aims: (1) best practices for improving research designs and training and (2) evaluating topics of contemporary significance that reverberate through history and beyond as promising trajectories for bioarchaeological research. Among the former were contextual grounding, research question/hypothesis generation, statistical procedures appropriate for small samples and mixed qualitative/quantitative data, the salience of Bayesian methods, and training program content. Topical foci included ethics, social inequality, identity (including intersectionality), climate change, migration, violence, epidemic disease, adaptability/plasticity, the osteological paradox, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Given the profound changes required globally to address decolonization in the 21st century, this concern also entered many formal and informal discussions.

Climatic conditions and prevalence of melanistic snakes-contrasting effects of warm springs and mild winters

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges that wildlife is facing. Rapid shifts in climatic conditions may accelerate evolutionary changes in populations as a result of strong selective pressure. Most studies focus on the impact of climatic conditions on phenologies and annual cycles, whereas there are fewer reports of empirical support for climate-driven changes in the phenotypic variability of free-living populations. We investigated whether climatic variables explain the prevalence of colour polymorphism in a population of the grass snake (Natrix natrix) with two morphotypes, the melanistic and non-melanistic ones, in the period 1981-2013. We found that the prevalence of the black phenotype was negatively related to spring temperature and winter harshness, expressed as the number of snow days. According to the thermal melanism hypothesis, a high predation rate during warmer springs may override relaxed thermal benefits and vice versa, i.e. black individuals may perform better than typical ones when thermal conditions in spring are unfavourable. In turn, because they are smaller, melanistic individuals may be exposed to a higher risk of winter mortality, particularly during longer winters. We highlight the need for more studies on the effects of climatic conditions on temporal variation in melanism prevalence in other populations and species as well as in various geographic regions.

Macroevolutionary dynamics of climatic niche space

How and why lineages evolve along with niche space as they diversify and adapt to different environments is fundamental to evolution. Progress has been hampered by the difficulties of linking a robust empirical characterization of species niches with flexible evolutionary models that describe their evolution. Consequently, the relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors remains poorly understood. Here, we characterize species' two-dimensional temperature and precipitation niche space occupied (i.e. species niche envelope) as complex geometries and assess their evolution across all Aves using a model that captures heterogeneous evolutionary rates on time-calibrated phylogenies. We find that extant birds coevolved from warm, mesic climatic niches into colder and drier environments and responded to the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary with a dramatic increase in disparity. Contrary to expectations of subsiding rates of niche evolution, our results show that overall rates have increased steadily, with some lineages experiencing exceptionally high evolutionary rates, associated with the colonization of novel niche spaces, and others showing niche stasis. Both competition- and environmental change-driven niche evolution transpire and result in highly heterogeneous rates near the present. Our findings highlight the growing ecological and conservation insights arising from the model-based integration of comprehensive environmental and phylogenetic information.

Modelling the acclimation capacity of coral reefs to a warming ocean

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

Tropical coral reefs are among the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth. The success of these ecosystems depends on a symbiotic relationship between corals and unicellular algae. This relationship breaks down when water temperature increases above certain levels causing massive coral deaths. Therefore, the future of coral reef ecosystems depends on the capacity of corals to acclimate to current warming rates. Despite many studies have tried to predict the future of coral reefs, these predictions are impaired by uncertainties related to the speed with which corals can acclimate. We developed a model in which corals can acclimate to changing temperature. By comparing model results with observations of coral cover, we estimated the speed of coral acclimation at the community level in different regions of the tropics. Using this information, we quantified the future changes in coral abundances under different warming scenarios. We found that corals of the Great Barrier Reef have higher acclimation capacities than those of other regions. Our results showed substantial coral declines in South East Asia and Caribbean, especially under the highest warming scenarios. Thus, we provide evidence that natural acclimation alone may not be sufficient to offset the decline of corals caused by the expected warming trends.

Contrasting Patterns of Climatic Niche Divergence in Trebouxia-A Clade of Lichen-Forming Algae

Lichen associations are overwhelmingly supported by carbon produced by photosynthetic algal symbionts. These algae have diversified to occupy nearly all climates and continents; however, we have a limited understanding of how their climatic niches have evolved through time. Here we extend previous work and ask whether phylogenetic signal in, and the evolution of, climatic niche, varies across climatic variables, phylogenetic scales, and among algal lineages in Trebouxia—the most common genus of lichen-forming algae. Our analyses reveal heterogeneous levels of phylogenetic signal across variables, and that contrasting models of evolution underlie the evolution of climatic niche divergence. Together these analyses demonstrate the variable processes responsible for shaping climatic tolerance in Trebouxia, and provide a framework within which to better understand potential responses to climate change-associated perturbations. Such predictions reveal a disturbing trend in which the pace at which modern climate change is proceeding will vastly exceed the rate at which Trebouxia climatic niches have previously evolved.

MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species' survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP.

Climatic niche evolution of a widely distributed Neotropical freshwater fish clade

The role of climate in the speciation process has been documented widely in ectotherms but poorly in freshwater fishes, which represent the richest clade among vertebrates. In this study, we have evaluated the occurrence of phylogenetic niche evolution as a promoter of diversification in the herichthyines (Cichliformes: Cichlidae) clade. We used distributional and bioclimatic data, niche modelling algorithms and phylogenetic comparative methods to study patterns of climatic niche evolution in the herichthyines clade. Our results suggested that herichthyines display signals of phylogenetic niche conservatism, but also signals of niche evolution in the last 14 Myr associated with the availability of new habitats promoting ecological opportunity within the clade. We also concluded that niche conservatism is equally strong in the fundamental and realized niches, which indicates a need to evaluate the potential role of biotic interactions in the evolution of the niche in future studies.

Threatened skates exhibit abiotic niche stability despite climate change in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean

Climatic changes are disrupting distribution patterns of populations through shifts in species abiotic niches and habitat loss. The abiotic niche of marine benthic taxa such as skates, however, may be more climatically stable compared to the upper layers of the water column, which are more exposed to immediate impacts of warming. Here, we estimate climate change impacts in Riorajini, a tribe of four skates, as a proxy to evaluate the vulnerability of a temperate coastal zone in the Atlantic Southwest, and study niche dynamics in a scenario of environmental changes on this group of threatened species. We modelled each species’ abiotic niche under present climatic conditions (2000–2014), projected them to the future (2100), then measured distributional stability, expansion, and unfilling. Our results revealed abiotic stability between the scenarios modelled despite the advancement of climate change, suggesting that the benthic layers where these skates occur may be a refuge from the increasing thermal stress. However, the exposure of shallow waters to climate change may be detrimental to nursery habitats. Thus, although their abiotic niche may remain stable in the future, the loss of extension of occurrence might be a peril for them with climate change.

Keeping your cool: thermoregulatory performance and plasticity in desert cricetid rodents

Small mammals in hot deserts often avoid heat via nocturnality and fossoriality and are thought to have a limited capacity to dissipate heat using evaporative cooling. Research to date has focused on thermoregulatory responses to air temperatures (Ta) below body temperature (Tb). Consequently, the thermoregulatory performance of small mammals exposed to high air temperatures is poorly understood, particularly responses across geographic and seasonal scales. We quantified the seasonal thermoregulatory performance of four cricetid rodents (Neotoma albigula, N. lepida, Peromyscus eremicus, P. crinitus) exposed to high Ta, at four sites in the Mojave Desert. We measured metabolism, evaporative water loss and Tb using flow-through respirometry. When exposed to Ta≥Tb, rodents showed steep increases in Tb, copious salivation and limited evaporative heat dissipation. Most individuals were only capable of maintaining Ta-Tb gradients of ∼1 °C resulting in heat tolerance limits (HTL) ranging from Ta=43-45°C. All species exhibited a thermoneutral Tb of ∼35-36 °C, and Tb increased to maximal levels of∼43°C. Metabolic rates and rates of evaporative water loss increased steeply in all species as Ta approached Tb. We also observed significant increases in resting metabolism and evaporative water loss from summer to winter at Tas within and above the thermoneutral zone. In contrast, we found few differences in the thermoregulatory performance within species across sites. Our results suggest that cricetid rodents have a limited physiological capacity to cope with environmental temperatures that exceed Tb and that a rapidly warming environment may increasingly constrain their nocturnal activity.

Survival of climate warming through niche shifts: Evidence from frogs on tropical islands

How will organisms cope when forced into warmer-than-preferred thermal environments? This is a key question facing our ability to monitor and manage biota as average annual temperatures increase, and is of particular concern for range-limited terrestrial species unable to track their preferred climatic envelope. Being ectothermic, desiccation prone, and often spatially restricted, island-inhabiting tropical amphibians exemplify this scenario. Pre-Anthropocene case studies of how insular amphibian populations responded to the enforced occupation of warmer-than-ancestral habitats may add a valuable, but currently lacking, perspective. We studied a population of frogs from the Seychelles endemic family Sooglossidae which, due to historic sea-level rise, have been forced to occupy a significantly warmer island (Praslin) than their ancestors and close living relatives. Evidence from thermal activity patterns, bioacoustics, body size distributions, and ancestral state estimations suggest that this population shifted its thermal niche in response to restricted opportunities for elevational dispersal. Relative to conspecifics, Praslin sooglossids also have divergent nuclear genotypes and call characters, a finding consistent with adaptation causing speciation in a novel thermal environment. Using an evolutionary perspective, our study reveals that some tropical amphibians have survived episodes of historic warming without the aid of dispersal and therefore may have the capacity to adapt to the currently warming climate. However, two otherwise co-distributed sooglossid species are absent from Praslin, and the deep evolutionary divergence between the frogs on Praslin and their closest extant relatives (~8 million years) may have allowed for gradual thermal adaptation and speciation. Thus, local extinction is still a likely outcome for tropical frogs experiencing warming climates in the absence of dispersal corridors to thermal refugia.

Modeling of the Potential Geographical Distribution of Three Fritillaria Species Under Climate Change

Fritillaria species, a well-known Chinese traditional medicine for more than 2,000 years, have become rare resources due to excessive harvesting. In order to balance the economical requirement and ecological protection of Fritillaria species, it is necessary to determine (1) the important environmental variables that were responsible for the spatial distribution, (2) distribution change in response to climate change in the future, (3) ecological niche overlap between various Fritillaria species, and (4) the correlation between spatial distribution and phylogenies as well. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for Fritillaria cirrhosa, Fritillaria unibracteata, and Fritillaria przewalskii were predicted using MaxEnt based on the current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The result indicated that precipitation and elevation were the most important environmental variables for the three species. Moreover, the current suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa, F. unibracteata, and F. przewalskii encompassed 681,951, 481,607, and 349,199 km2, respectively. Under the scenario of the highest concentration of greenhouse gas emission (SSP585), the whole suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100, while those of F. unibracteata reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100 under the scenario of moderate emission (SSP370) from 2021 to 2100. The MaxEnt data were also used to predict the ecological niche overlap, and thus high overlap occurring among three Fritillaria species was observed. The niche overlap of three Fritillaria species was related to the phylogenetic analysis despite the non-significance (P > 0.05), indicating that spatial distribution was one of the factors that contributed to the speciation diversification. Additionally, we predicted species-specific habitats to decrease habitat competition. Overall, the information obtained in this study provided new insight into the potential distribution and ecological niche of three species for the conservation and management in the future.

Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites and ectoparasites as biomarkers of heat stress close to roads in a Mediterranean lizard

Differences between air and ground temperatures are expected to narrow with the advance of the season in temperate regions (aka seasonal restriction in the availability of thermal microhabitats), which may activate behavioral and physiological responses of ectotherm species adapted to temperate climates. However, according to cost-benefit models of ectotherm thermoregulation, we hypothesize that these responses may also carry some costs. We quantified seasonal shifts in thermoregulatory precision, concentration of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites, and load of ectoparasites in a Mediterranean lizard, Psammodromus algirus. We also tested whether the proximity to a road, a putative source of chronic stress, can facilitate the glucocorticoid-mediated response of lizards to heat stress. As expected, differences between body and environmental temperatures narrowed during the reproductive season and lizards responded by increasing their thermoregulatory precision and the secretion of glucocorticoids, as indicated by metabolites in feces. Interestingly, lizards tended to have higher glucocorticoid concentration when captured far from the road. This might reflect either a putative impairment of the glucocorticoid-mediated response of the lizards to heat stress close to the road or the plastic capability of P. algirus to acclimate to sources of moderate chronic stress. In the latter direction, the increase of both glucocorticoid metabolites and thermoregulatory precision supported that this Mediterranean species responds to environmental thermal restrictions with adaptive behavioral and physiological mechanisms. However, this was also associated with an increase in its susceptibility to ectoparasites, which represents an added cost to the current cost-benefit models of ectotherm thermoregulation.

Investigation of roost composition of passerine birds in different environmental conditions

Abstract The majority of the birds in different habitats are stressed due to alteration in multiple climate factors contributing to their loss. The present study has been planned to find the roosts composition of passerine birds in different major and sub-habitats of Punjab, Pakistan. In Faisalabad, of the four species, the higher number of exits was almost comparable, while Passer domesticus and Pastor roseus were more abundant than Tachycinet bicolor and Lanius cristatus. For the three remaining birds, total exits and returns were 180 for P. roseus, 181 for T. bicolor, and 179 for L. cristatus, respectively. Considering the exits in morning hours, a total of 314, 256, 246 and 210, were recorded from Sheikhupura. In Khanewal, of the four species, the highest exits and returns were that of P. domesticus (407; 451), followed by that of the P. roseus (273; 336), T. bicolor (242; 319) and L. cristatus (220; 397). The temperature imposed serious effects on roost exits for the four birds. The varied P-values which were higher (< 0.001***, < 0.001***, 0.002 **, <0.001***) appeared to limit the roost exits for them. Nonetheless, the impact of relative humidity exerted a strong influence on the T. bicolor (0.003**). In roosts return, it was seen that roost returns were even likely in warm temperatures and precipitation did not impose seriously on returns, and even in light rainfall. Nonetheless, relative humidity (RH) strongly impacted the sparrow. The T. bicolor and L. cristatus were adversely affected with the slopes (1.37) and (2.06), indicated with each percentage increase of relative humidity, and slope variations became least.

Fossil-Informed Models Reveal a Boreotropical Origin and Divergent Evolutionary Trajectories in the Walnut Family (Juglandaceae)

Temperate woody plants in the Northern Hemisphere have long been known to exhibit high species richness in East Asia and North America and significantly lower diversity in Europe, but the causes of this pattern remain debated. Here, we quantify the roles of dispersal, niche evolution, and extinction in shaping the geographic diversity of the temperate woody plant family Juglandaceae (walnuts and their relatives). Integrating evidence from molecular, morphological, fossil, and (paleo)environmental data, we find strong support for a Boreotropical origin of the family with contrasting evolutionary trajectories between the temperate subfamily Juglandoideae and the tropical subfamily Engelhardioideae. Juglandoideae rapidly evolved frost tolerance when the global climate shifted to ice-house conditions from the Oligocene, with diversification at high latitudes especially in Europe and Asia during the Miocene. Subsequent range contraction at high latitudes and high levels of extinction in Europe driven by global cooling led to the current regional disparity in species diversity. Engelhardioideae showed temperature conservatism while adapting to increased humidity, tracking tropical climates to low latitudes since the middle Eocene with comparatively little diversification, perhaps due to high competition in the tropical zone. The biogeographic history of Juglandaceae shows that the North Atlantic land bridge and Europe played more critical roles than previously thought in linking the floras of East Asia and North America, and showcases the complex interplay among climate change, niche evolution, dispersal, and extinction that shaped the modern disjunct pattern of species richness in temperate woody plants. [Boreotropical origin; climatic niche evolution; disjunct distribution; dispersal; diversity anomaly; extinction; Juglandaceae.].

A draft genome provides hypotheses on drought tolerance in a keystone plant species in Western North America threatened by climate change

Climate change presents distinct ecological and physiological challenges to plants as extreme climate events become more common. Understanding how species have adapted to drought, especially ecologically important nonmodel organisms, will be crucial to elucidate potential biological pathways for drought adaptation and inform conservation strategies. To aid in genome-to-phenome research, a draft genome was assembled for a diploid individual of Artemisia tridentata subsp. tridentata, a threatened keystone shrub in western North America. While this taxon has few genetic resources available and genetic/genomics work has proven difficult due to genetic heterozygosity in the past, a draft genome was successfully assembled. Aquaporin (AQP) genes and their promoter sequences were mined from the draft genome to predict mechanisms regulating gene expression and generate hypotheses on key genes underpinning drought response. Fifty-one AQP genes were fully assembled within the draft genome. Promoter and phylogenetic analyses revealed putative duplicates of A. tridentata subsp. tridentata AQPs which have experienced differentiation in promoter elements, potentially supporting novel biological pathways. Comparison with nondrought-tolerant congener supports enrichments of AQP genes in this taxon during adaptation to drought stress. Differentiation of promoter elements revealed that paralogues of some genes have evolved to function in different pathways, highlighting these genes as potential candidates for future research and providing critical hypotheses for future genome-to-phenome work.

Eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities

Eco-evolutionary dynamics can mediate species and community responses to habitat warming and fragmentation, two of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The eco-evolutionary consequences of warming and fragmentation are typically studied independently, hindering our understanding of their simultaneous impacts. Here, we provide a new perspective rooted in trade-offs among traits for understanding their eco-evolutionary consequences. On the one hand, temperature influences traits related to metabolism, such as resource acquisition and activity levels. Such traits are also likely to have trade-offs with other energetically costly traits, like antipredator defences or dispersal. On the other hand, fragmentation can influence a variety of traits (e.g. dispersal) through its effects on the spatial environment experienced by individuals, as well as properties of populations, such as genetic structure. The combined effects of warming and fragmentation on communities should thus reflect their collective impact on traits of individuals and populations, as well as trade-offs at multiple trophic levels, leading to unexpected dynamics when effects are not additive and when evolutionary responses modulate them. Here, we provide a road map to navigate this complexity. First, we review single-species responses to warming and fragmentation. Second, we focus on consumer-resource interactions, considering how eco-evolutionary dynamics can arise in response to warming, fragmentation, and their interaction. Third, we illustrate our perspective with several example scenarios in which trait trade-offs could result in significant eco-evolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we consider the possible eco-evolutionary consequences of (i) evolution in thermal performance of a species involved in a consumer-resource interaction, (ii) ecological or evolutionary changes to encounter and attack rates of consumers, and (iii) changes to top consumer body size in tri-trophic food chains. In these scenarios, we present a number of novel, sometimes counter-intuitive, potential outcomes. Some of these expectations contrast with those solely based on ecological dynamics, for example, evolutionary responses in unexpected directions for resource species or unanticipated population declines in top consumers. Finally, we identify several unanswered questions about the conditions most likely to yield strong eco-evolutionary dynamics, how better to incorporate the role of trade-offs among traits, and the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in governing responses to warming in fragmented communities.