Experimental warming drives a seasonal shift in the timing of host-parasite dynamics with consequences for disease risk

Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Opening a can of worms: Archived canned fish fillets reveal 40 years of change in parasite burden for four Alaskan salmon species

How has parasitism changed for Alaskan salmon over the past several decades? Parasitological assessments of salmon are inconsistent across time, and though parasite data are sometimes noted when processing fillets for the market, those data are not retained for more than a few years. The landscape of parasite risk is changing for salmon, and long-term data are needed to quantify this change. Parasitic nematodes of the family Anisakidae (anisakids) use salmonid fishes as intermediate or paratenic hosts in life cycles that terminate in marine mammal definitive hosts. Alaskan marine mammals have been protected since the 1970s, and as populations recover, the density of definitive hosts in this region has increased. To assess whether the anisakid burden has changed in salmonids over time, we used a novel data source: salmon that were caught, canned, and thermally processed for human consumption in Alaska, USA. We examined canned fillets of chum (Oncorhynchus keta, n = 42), coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch, n = 22), pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, n = 62), and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, n = 52) processed between 1979 and 2019. We dissected each fillet and quantified the number of worms per gram of salmon tissue. Anisakid burden increased over time in chum and pink salmon, but there was no change in sockeye or coho salmon. This difference may be due to differences in the prey preferences of each species, or to differences in the parasite species detected across hosts. Canned fish serve as a window into the past, providing information that would otherwise be lost, including information on changes over time in the parasite burden of commercially, culturally, and ecologically important fish species.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5 °C and 13 °C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

A simulated natural heatwave perturbs bumblebee immunity and resistance to infection

As a consequence of ongoing climate change, heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in many regions. Such extreme events can shift organisms from thermal optima for physiology and behaviour, with the thermal stress hypothesis predicting reduced performance at temperatures where the maintenance of biological functions is energetically costly. Performance includes the ability to resist biotic stressors, including infectious diseases, with increased exposure to extreme temperatures having the potential to synergise with parasite infection. Climate change is a proposed threat to native bee pollinators, directly and through indirect effects on floral resources, but the thermal stress hypothesis, particularly pertaining to infectious disease resistance, has received limited attention. We exposed adult Bombus impatiens bumblebee workers to simulated, ecologically relevant heatwave or control thermal regimes and assessed longevity, immunity, and resistance to concurrent or future parasite infections. We demonstrate that survival and induced antibacterial immunity are reduced following heatwaves. Supporting that heatwave exposure compromised immunity, the cost of immune activation was thermal regime dependent, with survival costs in control but not heatwave exposed bees. However, in the face of real infections, an inability to mount an optimal immune response will be detrimental, which was reflected by increased trypanosomatid parasite infections following heatwave exposure. These results demonstrate interactions between heatwave exposure and bumblebee performance, including immune and infection outcomes. Thus, the health of bumblebee pollinator populations may be affected through altered interactions with parasites and pathogens, in addition to other effects of extreme manifestations of climate change.

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

Temperature and intraspecific variation affect host-parasite interactions

Parasites play key roles in regulating aquatic ecosystems, yet the impact of climate warming on their ecology and disease transmission remains poorly understood. Isolating the effect of warming is challenging as transmission involves multiple interacting species and potential intraspecific variation in temperature responses of one or more of these species. Here, we leverage a wide-ranging mosquito species and its facultative parasite as a model system to investigate the impact of temperature on host-parasite interactions and disease transmission. We conducted a common garden experiment measuring parasite growth and infection rates at seven temperatures using 12 field-collected parasite populations and a single mosquito population. We find that both free-living growth rates and infection rates varied with temperature, which were highest at 18-24.5°C and 13°C, respectively. Further, we find intraspecific variation in peak performance temperature reflecting patterns of local thermal adaptation-parasite populations from warmer source environments typically had higher thermal optima for free-living growth rates. For infection rates, we found a significant interaction between parasite population and nonlinear effects of temperature. These findings underscore the need to consider both host and parasite thermal responses, as well as intraspecific variation in thermal responses, when predicting the impacts of climate change on disease in aquatic ecosystems.

Climate change in the Arctic: Testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases

Climate change is most strongly felt in the polar regions of the world, with significant impacts on the species that live there. The arrival of parasites and pathogens from more temperate areas may become a significant problem for these populations, but current observations of parasite presence often lack a historical reference of prior absence. Observations in the high Arctic of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae suggested that this species expanded poleward in the last two decades in relation to climate change. As this tick can have a direct impact on the breeding success of its seabird hosts and vectors several pathogens, including Lyme disease spirochaetes, understanding its invasion dynamics is essential for predicting its impact on polar seabird populations. Here, we use population genetic data and host serology to test the hypothesis that I. uriae recently expanded into Svalbard. Both black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were sampled for ticks and blood in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen. Ticks were genotyped using microsatellite markers and population genetic analyses were performed using data from 14 reference populations from across the tick's northern distribution. In contrast to predictions, the Spitsbergen population showed high genetic diversity and significant differentiation from reference populations, suggesting long-term isolation. Host serology also demonstrated a high exposure rate to Lyme disease spirochaetes (Bbsl). Targeted PCR and sequencing confirmed the presence of Borrelia garinii in a Spitsbergen tick, demonstrating the presence of Lyme disease bacteria in the high Arctic for the first time. Taken together, results contradict the notion that I. uriae has recently expanded into the high Arctic. Rather, this tick has likely been present for some time, maintaining relatively high population sizes and an endemic transmission cycle of Bbsl. Close future observations of population infestation/infection rates will now be necessary to relate epidemiological changes to ongoing climate modifications.

Environmental refuges from disease in host-parasite interactions under global change

The physiological performance of organisms depends on their environmental context, resulting in performance-response curves along environmental gradients. Parasite performance-response curves are generally expected to be broader than those of their hosts due to shorter generation times and hence faster adaptation. However, certain environmental conditions may limit parasite performance more than that of the host, thereby providing an environmental refuge from disease. Thermal disease refuges have been extensively studied in response to climate warming, but other environmental factors may also provide environmental disease refuges which, in turn, respond to global change. Here, we (1) showcase laboratory and natural examples of refuges from parasites along various environmental gradients, and (2) provide hypotheses on how global environmental change may affect these refuges. We strive to synthesize knowledge on potential environmental disease refuges along different environmental gradients including salinity and nutrients, in both natural and food-production systems. Although scaling up from single host-parasite relationships along one environmental gradient to their interaction outcome in the full complexity of natural environments remains difficult, integrating host and parasite performance-response can serve to formulate testable hypotheses about the variability in parasitism outcomes and the occurrence of environmental disease refuges under current and future environmental conditions.

Transgenerational plasticity in a zooplankton in response to elevated temperature and parasitism

Organisms are increasingly facing multiple stressors, which can simultaneously interact to cause unpredictable impacts compared with a single stressor alone. Recent evidence suggests that phenotypic plasticity can allow for rapid responses to altered environments, including biotic and abiotic stressors, both within a generation and across generations (transgenerational plasticity). Parents can potentially "prime" their offspring to better cope with similar stressors or, alternatively, might produce offspring that are less fit because of energetic constraints. At present, it remains unclear exactly how biotic and abiotic stressors jointly mediate the responses of transgenerational plasticity and whether this plasticity is adaptive. Here, we test the effects of biotic and abiotic environmental changes on within- and transgenerational plasticity using a Daphnia-Metschnikowia zooplankton-fungal parasite system. By exposing parents and their offspring consecutively to the single and combined effects of elevated temperature and parasite infection, we showed that transgenerational plasticity induced by temperature and parasite stress influenced host fecundity and lifespan; offsprings of mothers who were exposed to one of the stressors were better able to tolerate elevated temperature, compared with the offspring of mothers who were exposed to neither or both stressors. Yet, the negative effects caused by parasite infection were much stronger, and this greater reduction in host fitness was not mitigated by transgenerational plasticity. We also showed that elevated temperature led to a lower average immune response, and that the relationship between immune response and lifetime fecundity reversed under elevated temperature: the daughters of exposed mothers showed decreased fecundity with increased hemocyte production at ambient temperature but the opposite relationship at elevated temperature. Together, our results highlight the need to address questions at the interface of multiple stressors and transgenerational plasticity and the importance of considering multiple fitness-associated traits when evaluating the adaptive value of transgenerational plasticity under changing environments.

How to use natural history collections to resurrect information on historical parasite abundances

Many of the most contentious questions that concern the ecology of helminths could be resolved with data on helminth abundance over the past few decades or centuries, but unfortunately these data are rare. A new sub-discipline - the historical ecology of parasitism - is resurrecting long-term data on the abundance of parasites, an advancement facilitated by the use of biological natural history collections. Because the world's museums hold billions of suitable specimens collected over more than a century, these potential parasitological datasets are broad in scope and finely resolved in taxonomic, temporal and spatial dimensions. Here, we set out best practices for the extraction of parasitological information from natural history collections, including how to conceive of a project, how to select specimens, how to engage curators and receive permission for proposed projects, standard operating protocols for dissections and how to manage data. Our hope is that other helminthologists will use this paper as a reference to expand their own research programmes along the dimension of time.

Behaviour is more important than thermal performance for an Arctic host-parasite system under climate change

Climate change is affecting Arctic ecosystems, including parasites. Predicting outcomes for host-parasite systems is challenging due to the complexity of multi-species interactions and the numerous, interacting pathways by which climate change can alter dynamics. Increasing temperatures may lead to faster development of free-living parasite stages but also higher mortality. Interactions between behavioural plasticity of hosts and parasites will also influence transmission processes. We combined laboratory experiments and population modelling to understand the impacts of changing temperatures on barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and their common helminth (Ostertagia gruehneri). We experimentally determined the thermal performance curves for mortality and development of free-living parasite stages and applied them in a spatial host-parasite model that also included behaviour of the parasite (propensity for arrested development in the host) and host (long-distance migration). Sensitivity analyses showed that thermal responses had less of an impact on simulated parasite burdens than expected, and the effect differed depending on parasite behaviour. The propensity for arrested development and host migration led to distinct spatio-temporal patterns in infection. These results emphasize the importance of considering behaviour-and behavioural plasticity-when projecting climate-change impacts on host-parasite systems.

Contrasting temperature responses in seasonal timing of cercariae shedding by Rhipidocotyle trematodes

Global warming is likely to lengthen the seasonal duration of larval release by parasites. We exposed freshwater mussel hosts, Anodonta anatina, from 2 high-latitude populations to high, intermediate and low temperatures throughout the annual cercarial shedding period of the sympatric trematodes Rhipidocotyle fennica and R. campanula, sharing the same transmission pathway. At the individual host level, under warmer conditions, the timing of the cercarial release in both parasite species shifted towards seasonally earlier period while its duration did not change. At the host population level, evidence for the lengthening of larvae shedding period with warming was found for R. fennica. R. campanula started the cercarial release seasonally clearly earlier, and at a lower temperature, than R. fennica. Furthermore, the proportion of mussels shedding cercariae increased, while day-degrees required to start the cercariae shedding decreased in high-temperature treatment in R. fennica. In R. campanula these effects were not found, suggesting that warming can benefit more R. fennica. These results do not completely support the view that climate warming would invariably increase the seasonal duration of larval shedding by parasites, but emphasizes species-specific differences in temperature-dependence and in seasonality of cercarial release.

Host phenology regulates parasite-host demographic cycles and eco-evolutionary feedbacks

Parasite-host interactions can drive periodic population dynamics when parasites overexploit host populations. The timing of host seasonal activity, or host phenology, determines the frequency and demographic impact of parasite-host interactions, which may govern whether parasites sufficiently overexploit hosts to drive population cycles. We describe a mathematical model of a monocyclic, obligate-killer parasite system with seasonal host activity to investigate the consequences of host phenology on host-parasite dynamics. The results suggest that parasites can reach the densities necessary to destabilize host dynamics and drive cycling as they adapt, but only in some phenological scenarios such as environments with short seasons and synchronous host emergence. Furthermore, only parasite lineages that are sufficiently adapted to phenological scenarios with short seasons and synchronous host emergence can achieve the densities necessary to overexploit hosts and produce population cycles. Host-parasite cycles also generate an eco-evolutionary feedback that slows parasite adaptation to the phenological environment as rare advantageous phenotypes can be driven extinct due to a population bottleneck depending on when they are introduced in the cycle. The results demonstrate that seasonal environments can drive population cycling in a restricted set of phenological patterns and provide further evidence that the rate of adaptive evolution depends on underlying ecological dynamics.

Heat sensitivity of first host and cercariae may restrict parasite transmission in a warming sea

To predict global warming impacts on parasitism, we should describe the thermal tolerance of all players in host-parasite systems. Complex life-cycle parasites such as trematodes are of particular interest since they can drive complex ecological changes. This study evaluates the net response to temperature of the infective larval stage of Himasthla elongata, a parasite inhabiting the southwestern Baltic Sea. The thermal sensitivity of (i) the infected and uninfected first intermediate host (Littorina littorea) and (ii) the cercarial emergence, survival, self-propelling, encystment, and infection capacity to the second intermediate host (Mytilus edulis sensu lato) were examined. We found that infection by the trematode rendered the gastropod more susceptible to elevated temperatures representing warm summer events in the region. At 22 °C, cercarial emergence and infectivity were at their optimum while cercarial survival was shortened, narrowing the time window for successful mussel infection. Faster out-of-host encystment occurred at increasing temperatures. After correcting the cercarial emergence and infectivity for the temperature-specific gastropod survival, we found that warming induces net adverse effects on the trematode transmission to the bivalve host. The findings suggest that gastropod and cercariae mortality, as a tradeoff for the emergence and infectivity, will hamper the possibility for trematodes to flourish in a warming ocean.

The role of host phenology for parasite transmission

Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.

Host snail species exhibit differential Angiostrongylus cantonensis prevalence and infection intensity across an environmental gradient

Diverse snail species serve as intermediate hosts of the parasitic nematode Angiostrongylus cantonensis, the etiological agent of human neuroangiostrongyliasis. However, levels of A. cantonensis infection prevalence and intensity vary dramatically among these host species. Factors contributing to this variation are largely unknown. Environmental factors, such as precipitation and temperature, have been correlated with overall A. cantonensis infection levels in a locale, but the influence of environment on infection in individual snail species has not been addressed. We identified levels of A. cantonensis prevalence and intensity in 16 species of snails collected from 29 sites along an environmental gradient on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. The relationship between infection levels of individual species and their environment was evaluated using AIC model selection of Generalized Linear Mixed Models incorporating precipitation, temperature, and vegetation cover at each collection site. Our results indicate that different mechanisms drive parasite prevalence and intensity in the intermediate hosts. Overall, snails from rainy, cool, green sites had higher infection levels than snails from dry, hot sites with less green vegetation. Intensity increased at the same rate along the environmental gradient in all species, though at different levels, while the relation between prevalence and environmental variables depended on species. These results have implications for zoonotic transmission, as human infection is a function of infection in the intermediate hosts, ingestion of which is the main pathway of transmission. The probability of human infection is greater in locations with higher rainfall, lower temperature and more vegetation cover because of higher infection prevalence in the gastropod hosts, but this depends on the host species. Moreover, severity of neuroangiostrongyliasis symptoms is likely to be greater in locations with higher rainfall, lower temperature, and more vegetation because of the higher numbers of infectious larvae (infection intensity) in all infected snail species. This study highlights the variation of infection prevalence and intensity in individual gastropod species, the individualistic nature of interactions between host species and their environment, and the implications for human neuroangiostrongyliasis in different environments.

Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates

Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.

Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease

Climate change is expected to have complex effects on infectious diseases, causing some to increase, others to decrease, and many to shift their distributions. There have been several important advances in understanding the role of climate and climate change on wildlife and human infectious disease dynamics over the past several years. This essay examines 3 major areas of advancement, which include improvements to mechanistic disease models, investigations into the importance of climate variability to disease dynamics, and understanding the consequences of thermal mismatches between host and parasites. Applying the new information derived from these advances to climate-disease models and addressing the pressing knowledge gaps that we identify should improve the capacity to predict how climate change will affect disease risk for both wildlife and humans.

Measuring the evolutionary potential of a winter-active parasitic wasp to climate change

In temperate climates, as a consequence of warming winters, an increasing number of ectothermic species are remaining active throughout winter months instead of diapausing, rendering them increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable cold events. One species displaying a shift in overwintering strategy is the parasitoid wasp and biological control agent Aphidius avenae. The current study aimed to better understand the consequence of a changing overwintering strategy on the evolutionary potential of an insect population to adapt to the cold stress events, set to increase in frequency, even during milder winters. Using a parental half-sibling breeding design, narrow-sense heritability of the cold tolerance, morphology and longevity of A. avenae was estimated. The heritability of cold tolerance was estimated at 0.07 (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.25]) for the Critical Thermal Minima (CT_min) and 0.11 (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.34]) for chill coma temperature; estimates much lower than those obtained for morphological traits (tibia length 0.20 (CI_95% = [0.03; 0.37]); head width 0.23 (CI_95% = [0.09; 0.39]); wing surface area 0.28 (CI_95% = [0.11; 0.47])), although comparable with the heritability estimate of 0.12 obtained for longevity (CI_95% = [0.00; 0.25]). The heritability estimates obtained thus suggest that A. avenae possesses low adaptive potential against cold stress. If such estimates are indicative of the evolutionary potential of A. avenae cold tolerance, more emphasis may be placed on adaptive phenotypic plasticity at the individual level to persist in a changing climate, with potential implications for the biological control function they provide.

Tracking Community Timing: Pattern and Determinants of Seasonality in Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Northern Florida

Community dynamics are embedded in hierarchical spatial–temporal scales that connect environmental drivers with species assembly processes. Culicoides species are hematophagous arthropod vectors of orbiviruses that impact wild and domestic ruminants. A better sense of Culicoides dynamics over time is important because sympatric species can lengthen the seasonality of virus transmission. We tested a putative departure from the four seasons calendar in the phenology of Culicoides and the vector subassemblage in the Florida panhandle. Two years of weekly abundance data, temporal scales, persistence and environmental thresholds were analyzed using a tripartite Culicoides β-diversity based modeling approach. Culicoides phenology followed a two-season regime and was explained by stream flow and temperature, but not rainfall. Species richness fit a nested pattern where the species recruitment was maximized during spring months. Midges were active year-round, and two suspected vectors species, Culicoides venustus and Culicoides stellifer, were able to sustain and connect the seasonal modules. Persistence suggests that Orbivirus maintenance does not rely on overwintering and that viruses are maintained year-round, with the seasonal dynamics resembling subtropical Culicoides communities with temporal-overlapping between multivoltine species. Viewing Culicoides-borne orbiviruses as a time-sensitive community-based issue, our results help to recommend when management operations should be delivered.

How climate change affects parasites: the case of trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum and its fish host Trichogaster fasiatus

This study was undertaken to understand the impact of climate change on the ecology of infection of Clinostomum complanatum, a model trematode parasite. We analysed climate change data and data from infected fish over a period of seven years (2007-2013) from the Aligarh region (India) in this retrospective study. We show that infection of the trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum (Rudolphi, 1814) in the forage fish Trichogaster facsiatus (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) is dependent on surface air temperature amongst the (ecologically) relevant climate change variables for both the parasite and its host. This study is the first to implicate surface air temperature as an environmental variable that may contribute towards parasitism, particularly for parasites with a piscine host. The biological relevance of changing climate on the ecology of this parasite is discussed.

Pulse Heat Stress and Parasitism in a Warming World

Infectious disease outbreaks emerged across the globe during the recent 2015-2016 El Niño event, re-igniting research interest in how climate events influence disease dynamics. While the relationship between long-term warming and the transmission of disease-causing parasites has received substantial attention, we do not yet know how pulse heat events - common phenomena in a warming world - will alter parasite transmission. The effects of pulse warming on ecological and evolutionary processes are complex and context dependent, motivating research to understand how climate oscillations drive host health and disease. Here, we develop a framework for evaluating and predicting the effects of pulse warming on parasitic infection. Specifically, we synthesize how pulse heat stress affects hosts, parasites, and the ecological interactions between them.

Tracking the assembly of nested parasite communities: Using β-diversity to understand variation in parasite richness and composition over time and scale

Community composition is driven by a few key assembly processes: ecological selection, drift and dispersal. Nested parasite communities represent a powerful study system for understanding the relative importance of these processes and their relationship with biological scale. Quantifying β-diversity across scales and over time additionally offers mechanistic insights into the ecological processes shaping the distributions of parasites and therefore infectious disease. To examine factors driving parasite community composition, we quantified the parasite communities of 959 amphibian hosts representing two species (the Pacific chorus frog, Pseudacris regilla and the California newt, Taricha torosa) sampled over 3 months from 10 ponds in California. Using additive partitioning, we estimated how much of regional parasite richness (γ-diversity) was composed of within-host parasite richness (α-diversity) and turnover (β-diversity) at three biological scales: across host individuals, across species and across habitat patches (ponds). We also examined how β-diversity varied across time at each biological scale. Differences among ponds comprised the majority (40%) of regional parasite diversity, followed by differences among host species (23%) and among host individuals (12%). Host species supported parasite communities that were less similar than expected by null models, consistent with ecological selection, although these differences lessened through time, likely due to high dispersal rates of infectious stages. Host individuals within the same population supported more similar parasite communities than expected, suggesting that host heterogeneity did not strongly impact parasite community composition and that dispersal was high at the individual host-level. Despite the small population sizes of within-host parasite communities, drift appeared to play a minimal role in structuring community composition. Dispersal and ecological selection appear to jointly drive parasite community assembly, particularly at larger biological scales. The dispersal ability of aquatic parasites with complex life cycles differs strongly across scales, meaning that parasite communities may predictably converge at small scales where dispersal is high, but may be more stochastic and unpredictable at larger scales. Insights into assembly mechanisms within multi-host, multi-parasite systems provide opportunities for understanding how to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases within human and wildlife hosts.

Phenological synchrony shapes pathology in host-parasite systems

A key challenge surrounding ongoing climate shifts is to identify how they alter species interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. Because transmission often occurs during critical time windows, shifts in the phenology of either taxa can alter the likelihood of interaction or the resulting pathology. We quantified how phenological synchrony between vulnerable stages of an amphibian host (Pseudacris regilla) and infection by a pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae) determined infection prevalence, parasite load and host pathology. By tracking hosts and parasite infection throughout development between low- and high-elevation regions (San Francisco Bay Area and the Southern Cascades (Mt Lassen)), we found that when phenological synchrony was high (Bay Area), each established parasite incurred a 33% higher probability of causing severe limb malformations relative to areas with less synchrony (Mt Lassen). As a result, hosts in the Bay Area had up to a 50% higher risk of pathology even while controlling for the mean infection load. Our results indicate that host-parasite interactions and the resulting pathology were the joint product of infection load and phenological synchrony, highlighting the sensitivity of disease outcomes to forecasted shifts in climate.

Parasitism modifies the direct effects of warming on a hemiparasite and its host

Climate change is affecting interactions among species, including host-parasite interactions. The effects of warming are of particular interest for interactions in which parasite and host physiology are intertwined, such as those between parasitic plants and their hosts. However, little is known about how warming will affect plant parasitic interactions, hindering our ability to predict how host and parasite species will respond to climate change. Here, we test how warming affects aboveground and belowground biomass of a hemiparasitic species (Castilleja sulphurea) and its host (Bouteloua gracilis), asking whether the effects of warming depend on the interaction between these species. We also measured how warming affected the number of haustorial connections between parasite and host. We grew each species alone and together under ambient and warmed conditions. Hosts produced more belowground biomass under warming. However, host biomass was reduced when plants were grown with a hemiparasite. Thus, parasitism negated the benefit of warming on belowground growth of the host. Host resource allocation to roots versus shoots also changed in response to both interaction with the parasite and warming, with hosts producing more root biomass relative to shoot biomass when grown with a parasite and when warmed. As expected, hemiparasite biomass was greater when grown with a host. Warmed parasites had lower root:shoot ratios but only when grown with a host. Under elevated temperatures, hemiparasite aboveground biomass was marginally greater, and plants produced significantly more haustoria. These findings indicate that warming can influence biomass production, both by modifying the interaction between host plants and hemiparasites and by affecting the growth of each species directly. To predict how species will be affected, it is important to understand not only the direct effects of warming but also the indirect effects that are mediated by species interactions. Ultimately, understanding how climate change will affect species interactions is key to understanding how it will affect individual species.

Distribution patterns of two species of Corynosoma (Acanthocephala: Polymorphidae) in fishes from Southwestern Atlantic

Corynosoma australe and C. cetaceum are the most frequently reported acanthocephalans in fish from the Argentine Sea, particularly in central and northern areas. Their definitive hosts are otariids and odontocete cetaceans, respectively. The low specificity of these larvae, in combination with high infective capability and long survival periods in fish, make them potentially good biological markers for stocks and other biological features of their fish hosts. In order to determine the distribution patterns of these species and their determining factors, a large dataset composed by newly collected fish samples, published and unpublished data from previous studies by the authors in the region were analysed in relation to host and environmental variables. The complete dataset comprised a total of 5084 fish, belonging to 29 species distributed in 21 families and 9 orders. Host size and trophic habits arose as the main determinants of abundance for both species of Corynosoma, showing higher abundances on larger fish and on higher trophic levels, as it is usual for trophically transmitted parasites. Biogeographic province and depth (indirectly representing the temperature of water) were the main drivers of the spatial distribution, displaying a latitudinal pattern associated to the temperature clines created by the interaction of Malvinas and Brazil currents, determining a decrease in abundance southwards and towards the deeper areas. No patterns were found regarding the distribution of definitive hosts. The knowledge of these distribution patterns of Corynosoma spp. in fish at regional scale, as well as of their causes, provides useful information to design management and conservation policies thus contributing to maintain the full and sustainable productivity of fisheries.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological 'mismatches'. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species's demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer-resource interactions and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in a disturbed world: implications for the maintenance of ecological networks

Past management of exploited species and of conservation issues has often ignored the evolutionary dynamics of species. During the 70s and 80s, evolution was mostly considered a slow process that may be safely ignored for most management issues. However, in recent years, examples of fast evolution have accumulated, suggesting that time scales of evolutionary dynamics (variations in genotype frequencies) and of ecological dynamics (variations in species densities) are often largely comparable, so that complex feedbacks commonly exist between the ecological and the evolutionary context ("eco-evolutionary dynamics"). While a first approach is of course to consider the evolution of a given species, in ecological communities, species are interlinked by interaction networks. In the present article, I discuss how species (co)evolution in such a network context may alter our understanding and predictions for species coexistence, given the disturbed world we live in. I review some concepts and examples suggesting that evolution may enhance the robustness of ecological networks and then show that, in many situations, the reverse may also happen, as evolutionary dynamics can harm diversity maintenance in various ways. I particularly focus on how evolution modifies indirect effects in ecological networks, then move to coevolution and discuss how the outcome of coevolution for species coexistence depends on the type of interaction (mutualistic or antagonistic) that is considered. I also review examples of phenotypes that are known to be important for ecological networks and shown to vary rapidly given global changes. Given all these components, evolution produces indirect eco-evolutionary effects within networks that will ultimately influence the optimal management of the current biodiversity crisis.

Optimal control applied to a temperature dependent schistosomiasis model

Schistosomiasis, the most common water-borne infection worldwide, continues to pose a serious public health challenge in developing nations and to travellers who visit these endemic regions. We apply optimal control on a temperature dependent schistosomiasis model. Our optimal control aims to minimize the pre-patent and patent human population at minimal costs. Our analysis and results throughout the paper highlight the impact of optimal control shaping the future patterns of the disease. Our results show that optimal control can significantly reduce the schistosomiasis burden in the community and in some instance by more than three-fold. In addition, our results show that with low costs the optimal strategy will be carried out at or close to its maximum strength for a sufficiently long period of time, so as minimize the exposure and infection. With high costs, however, the control have to be implemented with reduced or even minimum, strength, to achieve an optimal balance between the costs and effects of control. Our findings suggest that optimal control theory can be useful on minimizing the infected host and vector. The study and its findings can provide a useful framework for designing cost-effective control for schistosomiasis.

Simulation of population dynamics of Bulinus globosus: Effects of environmental temperature on production of Schistosoma haematobium cercariae

Background

Temperature is an important factor that influences the biology and ecology of intermediate host (IH) snails and the schistosome parasites they transmit. Although temperature shifts due to climate change has been predicted to affect the life history traits of IH snails and parasite production, the mechanisms of how this may affect parasite abundance and disease risks are still not clear.

Materials and methods

Using data from laboratory and field experiments, we developed a deterministic compartmental simulation model based on difference equations using a weekly time step that represented the life cycle of Bulinus globosus. We simulated snail population dynamics and the associated production of cercariae assuming current environmental temperatures as well as projected temperature increases of 1 °C and 2 °C.

Results

The model generated snail fecundity and survival rates similar to those observed in the laboratory and also produced reasonable snail population dynamics under seasonally varying temperatures representative of generally favorable environmental conditions. Simulated relative abundances of both snails and cercariae decreased with increasing environmental temperatures, with maximum snail abundances decreased by 14% and 27%, and maximum cercariae productions decreased by 8% and 17%, when temperatures were increased by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively.

Conclusion

The results indicate that future rise in temperature due to climate change may alter the abundance of B. globosus and impact on the prevalence of schistosomiasis. Furthermore, increased temperatures may not linearly influence the abundance of S. haematobium. These results may have important implications for schistosomiasis control programmes in view of temperature driven changes in the life history traits of B. globosus and S. haematobium. Our study recommends that the use of deterministic models incorporating the effects of temperature on the life history traits of IH snails would be vital in understanding the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis incidences and prevalence.

The implementation of schistosomiasis control/elimination strategies depend on accurate estimations and predictions of the changes in the snail and parasite population. This is essential especially in the allocation of limited resources. The simulation model and the results presented here provide useful information on Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate host snail of Schistosoma haematobium in southern Africa. The predicted changes in the abundance of B. globosus and S. haematobium due to changes in temperature may be vital in the fight against schistosomiasis. The model predicts the current and future abundance of intermediate hosts snails by considering the future predicted temperature increases. These results may be useful in evaluating the snail-trematode interactions within the natural systems in which changes in the environmental conditions such a temperature may affect the population size of Bulinus globosus and disease incidences. These effects of temperature on B. globosus may play an important role in the implementation of snail control programmes.

Elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce monarch tolerance and increase parasite virulence by altering the medicinal properties of milkweeds

Hosts combat their parasites using mechanisms of resistance and tolerance, which together determine parasite virulence. Environmental factors, including diet, mediate the impact of parasites on hosts, with diet providing nutritional and medicinal properties. Here, we present the first evidence that ongoing environmental change decreases host tolerance and increases parasite virulence through a loss of dietary medicinal quality. Monarch butterflies use dietary toxins (cardenolides) to reduce the deleterious impacts of a protozoan parasite. We fed monarch larvae foliage from four milkweed species grown under either elevated or ambient CO₂ , and measured changes in resistance, tolerance, and virulence. The most high-cardenolide milkweed species lost its medicinal properties under elevated CO₂ ; monarch tolerance to infection decreased, and parasite virulence increased. Declines in medicinal quality were associated with declines in foliar concentrations of lipophilic cardenolides. Our results emphasize that global environmental change may influence parasite-host interactions through changes in the medicinal properties of plants.

Eco-immunology in the cold: the role of immunity in shaping the overwintering survival of ectotherms

The effect of temperature on physiology mediates many of the challenges that ectotherms face under climate change. Ectotherm immunity is thermally sensitive and, as such, environmental change is likely to have complex effects on survival, disease resistance and transmission. The effects of temperature on immunity will be particularly profound in winter because cold and overwintering are important triggers and regulators of ectotherm immune activity. Low temperatures can both suppress and activate immune responses independent of parasites, which suggests that temperature not only affects the rate of immune responses but also provides information that allows overwintering ectotherms to balance investment in immunity and other physiological processes that underlie winter survival. Changing winter temperatures are now shifting ectotherm immunity, as well as the demand for energy conservation and protection against parasites. Whether an ectotherm can survive the winter will thus depend on whether new immune phenotypes will shift to match the conditions of the new environment, or leave ectotherms vulnerable to infection or energy depletion. Here, we synthesise patterns of overwintering immunity in ectotherms and examine how new winter conditions might affect ectotherm immunity. We then explore whether it is possible to predict the effects of changing winter conditions on ectotherm vulnerability to the direct and indirect effects of parasites.

How Temperature, Pond-Drying, and Nutrients Influence Parasite Infection and Pathology

The rapid pace of environmental change is driving multi-faceted shifts in abiotic factors that influence parasite transmission. However, cumulative effects of these factors on wildlife diseases remain poorly understood. Here we used an information-theoretic approach to compare the relative influence of abiotic factors (temperature, diurnal temperature range, nutrients and pond-drying), on infection of snail and amphibian hosts by two trematode parasites (Ribeiroia ondatrae and Echinostoma spp.). A temperature shift from 20 to 25 °C was associated with an increase in infected snail prevalence of 10-20%, while overall snail densities declined by a factor of 6. Trematode infection abundance in frogs was best predicted by infected snail density, while Ribeiroia infection specifically also declined by half for each 10% reduction in pond perimeter, despite no effect of perimeter on the per snail release rate of cercariae. Both nutrient concentrations and Ribeiroia infection positively predicted amphibian deformities, potentially owing to reduced host tolerance or increased parasite virulence in more productive environments. For both parasites, temperature, pond-drying, and nutrients were influential at different points in the transmission cycle, highlighting the importance of detailed seasonal field studies that capture the importance of multiple drivers of infection dynamics and the mechanisms through which they operate.

Parasite richness and abundance within aquatic macroinvertebrates: testing the roles of host- and habitat-level factors

The importance of parasites as both members of biological communities and as structuring agents of host communities has been increasingly emphasized. Yet parasites of aquatic macroinvertebrates and the environmental factors regulating their richness and abundance remain poorly studied. Here we quantified parasite richness and abundance within 12 genera of odonate naiads and opportunistically sampled four additional orders of aquatic macroinvertebrates from 35 freshwater ponds in the San Francisco Bay Area of California, USA. We also tested the relative contributions of host- and habitat-level factors in driving patterns of infection abundance for the most commonly encountered parasite (the trematode Haematoloechus sp.) in nymphal damselflies and dragonflies using hierarchical generalized linear mixed models. Over the course of two years, we quantified the presence and intensity of parasites from 1,612 individuals. We identified six parasite taxa: two digenetic trematodes, one larval nematode, one larval acanthocephalan, one gregarine, and a mite, for which the highest infection prevalence (39%) occurred in the damselfly genus, Ishnura sp. Based on the hierarchical analysis of Haematoloechus sp. occurrence, infection prevalence and abundance were associated predominantly with site-level factors, including definitive host (frog) presence, nymphal odonate density, water pH and conductivity. In addition, host suborder interacted with the presence of fishes, such that damselflies had higher infection rates in sites with fish relative to those without, whereas the opposite was true for dragonfly nymphs. These findings offer insights into the potential interaction between host- and site-level factors in shaping parasite populations within macroinvertebrate taxa.

Empirical evidence that metabolic theory describes the temperature dependency of within-host parasite dynamics

The complexity of host–parasite interactions makes it difficult to predict how host–parasite systems will respond to climate change. In particular, host and parasite traits such as survival and virulence may have distinct temperature dependencies that must be integrated into models of disease dynamics. Using experimental data from Daphnia magna and a microsporidian parasite, we fitted a mechanistic model of the within-host parasite population dynamics. Model parameters comprising host aging and mortality, as well as parasite growth, virulence, and equilibrium abundance, were specified by relationships arising from the metabolic theory of ecology. The model effectively predicts host survival, parasite growth, and the cost of infection across temperature while using less than half the parameters compared to modeling temperatures discretely. Our results serve as a proof of concept that linking simple metabolic models with a mechanistic host–parasite framework can be used to predict temperature responses of parasite population dynamics at the within-host level.

Host–parasite interactions are impacted by temperature, and climate change is altering the nature of these interactions. Measuring how a range of temperatures affects host and parasite traits and how this influences the outcome of infections is infeasible in most systems. The metabolic theory of ecology provides a powerful framework to predict biological rates in response to temperature. Using a Daphnia–parasite model system, we collected experimental data on host survival and parasite abundance across the host’s temperature range. We fitted thermal relationships based on the metabolic theory of ecology to separate host and parasite traits, including host mortality and aging as well as parasite growth and virulence. We then provide empirical evidence of the predictive power of linking these relationships in mechanistic within-host parasite models. This allows us to predict the outcome of individual infections continuously across a temperature gradient, as well as to gain a better understanding of the impact of temperature changes on disease dynamics. Due to its simplicity and generality, this framework could be a valuable approach for predicting the effects of climate change on infection outcomes for hosts and microparasites.

Social networks: a tool for assessing the impact of perturbations on wildlife behaviour and implications for pathogen transmission

Wildlife are increasingly subject to perturbations, which can impact pathogen transmission and lead to disease emergence. While a myriad of factors influence disease dynamics in wildlife, behaviour is emerging as a major influence. In this review, we examine how perturbations alter the behaviour of individuals and how, in turn, disease transmission may be impacted, with a focus on the use of network models as a powerful tool. There are emerging hypotheses as to how networks respond to different types of perturbations. The broad effects of perturbations make predicting potential outcomes and identifying mitigation opportunities for disease emergence critical; yet, the current paucity of data makes identification of underlying trends difficult. Social network analysis facilitates a mechanistic approach to how perturbation-induced behavioural changes result in shifts in pathogen transmission. However, the field is still developing, and future work should strive to address current deficits. There is particular need for empirical data to support modelling predictions and increased inclusion of pathogen monitoring in network studies.

Half the story: Thermal effects on within-host infectious disease progression in a warming climate

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold-blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within-host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid-latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three-spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a "wild" model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within-host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune-associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection-specific way. Combining laboratory-determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within-host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence.

Simulated climate change, epidemic size, and host evolution across host-parasite populations

Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate-parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite-mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations' capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.

Circadian rhythms of trematode parasites: applying mixed models to test underlying patterns

Circadian rhythms of parasites and their hosts can influence processes such as transmission, pathology and life cycle evolution. For trematode parasites that depend on free-living infectious stages (i.e. cercariae) to move among host species, the timing of parasite release is hypothesized to increase the likelihood of contacting a host. Yet, a persistent challenge in studying such biorhythms involves selection of appropriate analytical techniques. Here, we extend a generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework to cosinor analyses, thereby allowing flexibility in the statistical distribution of the response variable, incorporation of multiple covariates and inclusion of hierarchical grouping effects. By applying this approach to 93 snails infected with trematode parasites from freshwater pond ecosystems, we detected non-random rhythms in six of eight species, with variation in both the timing of peak cercariae release (between 5:10 and 21:46 h) and its magnitude (between 13 and 386). The use of GLMM yielded more accurate and precise estimates of the cosinor parameters compared with classical least-squares (LS) based on a simulation-based sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the amplitude and rhythm-adjusted mean values from the LS models diverged from the true values at some limits. We highlight the importance of novel analytical approaches for evaluating parasite circadian rhythms and investigating their underlying mechanisms.

Spring warming increases the abundance of an invasive specialist insect: links to phenology and life history

Under global warming, shifts in phenological synchrony between insects and host plants (i.e., changes in the relative timing of the interaction) may reduce resource availability to specialist insects. Some specialists, however, can flexibly track the shifts in host-plant phenology, allowing them to obtain sufficient resources and therefore to benefit from rising temperatures. Here, we investigated the effects of experimental warming on the life history of an invasive, specialist lace bug (Corythucha ciliata) and on the leaf expansion of its host plant (Platanus × acerifolia) in two spring seasons under field conditions in Shanghai, China. We found that a 2 °C increase in mean air temperature advanced the timing of the expansion of host leaves and of the activities of overwintering adult insects in both years but did not disrupt their synchrony. Warming also directly increased the reproduction of overwintering adults and enhanced the development and survival of their offspring. These results indicate that C. ciliata can well track the earlier emergence of available resources in response to springtime warming. Such plasticity, combined with the direct effects of rising temperatures, may increase the insect’s population size and outbreak potential in eastern China under climate warming.

Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia

The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species.

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change.

Effect of temperature on the Bulinus globosus - Schistosoma haematobium system

Background

Given that increase in temperature may alter host-parasite relationships, the anticipated rise in temperature due to global warming might change transmission patterns of certain diseases. However, the extent to which this will happen is not well understood.

Methods

Using a host-parasite system involving Bulinus globosus and Schistosoma haematobium, we assessed the effect of temperature on snail fecundity, growth, survival and parasite development under laboratory conditions.

Results

Our results show that temperature may have a non-linear effect on snail fecundity and snail growth. Snails maintained at 15.5 °C and 36.0 °C did not produce egg masses while those maintained at 25.8 °C laid 344 and 105 more egg masses than snails at 31.0 °C and 21.2 °C, respectively. Attainment of patency led to a reduction in egg mass production among the snails. However, the reduction in fecundity for snails maintained at 21.2 °C occurred before snails started shedding cercariae. Parasite development was accelerated at high temperatures with snails maintained at 31.0 °C reaching patency after three weeks. Furthermore, snail growth rate was highest at 25.8 °C while it was inhibited at 15.5 °C and reduced at 31.0 °C. Increase in temperature increased snail mortality rates. Snails maintained at 36.0 °C had the shortest survival time while those maintained at 15.5 °C had the longest survival time.

Conclusions

We concluded that temperature influences fecunxdity, growth, survival and parasite development in the snail and thus dictates the time it takes the parasite to complete the life cycle. This has implications on transmission of schistosomiasis in the context of global warming.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0260-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Capture severity, infectious disease processes and sex influence post-release mortality of sockeye salmon bycatch

Bycatch is a common occurrence in heavily fished areas such as the Fraser River, British Columbia, where fisheries target returning adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) en route to spawning grounds. The extent to which these encounters reduce fish survival through injury and physiological impairment depends on multiple factors including capture severity, river temperature and infectious agents. In an effort to characterize the mechanisms of post-release mortality and address fishery and managerial concerns regarding specific regulations, wild-caught Early Stuart sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were exposed to either mild (20 s) or severe (20 min) gillnet entanglement and then held at ecologically relevant temperatures throughout their period of river migration (mid-late July) and spawning (early August). Individuals were biopsy sampled immediately after entanglement and at death to measure indicators of stress and immunity, and the infection intensity of 44 potential pathogens. Biopsy alone increased mortality (males: 33%, females: 60%) when compared with non-biopsied controls (males: 7%, females: 15%), indicating high sensitivity to any handling during river migration, especially among females. Mortality did not occur until 5-10 days after entanglement, with severe entanglement resulting in the greatest mortality (males: 62%, females: 90%), followed by mild entanglement (males: 44%, females: 70%). Infection intensities of Flavobacterium psychrophilum and Ceratonova shasta measured at death were greater in fish that died sooner. Physiological indicators of host stress and immunity also differed depending on longevity, and indicated anaerobic metabolism, osmoregulatory failure and altered immune gene regulation in premature mortalities. Together, these results implicate latent effects of entanglement, especially among females, resulting in mortality days or weeks after release. Although any entanglement is potentially detrimental, reducing entanglement durations can improve post-release survival.

Implications of Changing Temperatures on the Growth, Fecundity and Survival of Intermediate Host Snails of Schistosomiasis: A Systematic Review

Climate change has been predicted to increase the global mean temperature and to alter the ecological interactions among organisms. These changes may play critical roles in influencing the life history traits of the intermediate hosts (IHs). This review focused on studies and disease models that evaluate the potential effect of temperature rise on the ecology of IH snails and the development of parasites within them. The main focus was on IH snails of schistosome parasites that cause schistosomiasis in humans. A literature search was conducted on Google Scholar, EBSCOhost and PubMed databases using predefined medical subject heading terms, Boolean operators and truncation symbols in combinations with direct key words. The final synthesis included nineteen published articles. The studies reviewed indicated that temperature rise may alter the distribution, optimal conditions for breeding, growth and survival of IH snails which may eventually increase the spread and/or transmission of schistosomiasis. The literature also confirmed that the life history traits of IH snails and their interaction with the schistosome parasites are affected by temperature and hence a change in climate may have profound outcomes on the population size of snails, parasite density and disease epidemiology. We concluded that understanding the impact of temperature on the growth, fecundity and survival of IH snails may broaden the knowledge on the possible effects of climate change and hence inform schistosomiasis control programmes.

Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach

Despite the number of virulent pathogens that are projected to benefit from global change and to spread in the next century, we suggest that a combination of coextinction risk and climate sensitivity could make parasites at least as extinction prone as any other trophic group. However, the existing interdisciplinary toolbox for identifying species threatened by climate change is inadequate or inappropriate when considering parasites as conservation targets. A functional trait approach can be used to connect parasites' ecological role to their risk of disappearance, but this is complicated by the taxonomic and functional diversity of many parasite clades. Here, we propose biological traits that may render parasite species particularly vulnerable to extinction (including high host specificity, complex life cycles and narrow climatic tolerance), and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of parasite biology and ecology. By doing so, we provide criteria to identify vulnerable parasite species and triage parasite conservation efforts.

The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.