Clinal variation in quantitative traits but not in evolutionary potential along elevational and latitudinal gradients in the widespread Anthyllis vulneraria

PREMISE

Strong elevational and latitudinal gradients allow the study of genetic differentiation in response to similar environmental changes. However, it is uncertain whether the environmental changes along the two types of gradients result in similar genetically based changes in quantitative traits. Peripheral arctic and alpine populations are thought to have less evolutionary potential than more central populations do.

METHODS

We studied quantitative traits of the widespread Anthyllis vulneraria in a common garden. Plants originated from 20 populations along a 2000-m elevational gradient from the lowlands to the elevational limit of the species in the Alps, and from 20 populations along a 2400-km latitudinal gradient from the center of the distribution of the species in Central Europe to its northern distributional margin.

RESULTS

Most traits showed similar clinal variations with elevation and latitude of origin, and the magnitude of all measured traits in relation to mean annual temperature was similar. Higher QST values than FST values in several traits indicated diversifying selection, but for others QST was smaller than FST. Genetic diversity of quantitative traits and neutral molecular markers was not correlated. Plasticity in response to favorable conditions declined with elevation and less strongly with latitude of origin, but the evolvability of traits did not.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinal variation suggests adaptive differentiation of quantitative traits along the two gradients. The evolutionary potential of peripheral populations is not necessarily reduced, but lower plasticity may threaten their survival under rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Conservation macrogenetics: harnessing genetic data to meet conservation commitments

Genetic biodiversity is rapidly gaining attention in global conservation policy. However, for almost all species, conservation relevant, population-level genetic data are lacking, limiting the extent to which genetic diversity can be used for conservation policy and decision-making. Macrogenetics is an emerging discipline that explores the patterns and processes underlying population genetic composition at broad taxonomic and spatial scales by aggregating and reanalyzing thousands of published genetic datasets. Here we argue that focusing macrogenetic tools on conservation needs, or conservation macrogenetics, will enhance decision-making for conservation practice and fill key data gaps for global policy. Conservation macrogenetics provides an empirical basis for better understanding the complexity and resilience of biological systems and, thus, how anthropogenic drivers and policy decisions affect biodiversity.

Low interspecific variation and no phylogenetic signal in additive genetic variance in wild bird and mammal populations

Evolutionary adaptation through genetic change requires genetic variation and is a key mechanism enabling species to persist in changing environments. Although a substantial body of work has focused on understanding how and why additive genetic variance (V A) differs among traits within species, we still know little about how they vary among species. Here we make a first attempt at testing for interspecific variation in two complementary measures of V A and the role of phylogeny in shaping this variation. To this end, we performed a phylogenetic comparative analysis using 1822 narrow-sense heritability (h 2) for 68 species of birds and mammals and 378 coefficients of additive genetic variance (CV A) estimates for 23 species. Controlling for within-species variation attributable to estimation method and trait type, we found some interspecific variation in h 2 (~15%) but not CV A. Although suggestive of interspecific variation in the importance of non-(additive) genetic sources of variance, sample sizes were insufficient to test this hypothesis directly. Additionally, although power was low, no phylogenetic signal was detected for either measure. Hence, while this suggests interspecific variation in V A is probably small, our understanding of interspecific variation in the adaptive potential of wild vertebrate populations is currently hampered by data limitations, a scarcity of CV A estimates and a measure of their uncertainty in particular.

Macrogenetics reveals multifaceted influences of environmental variation on vertebrate population genetic diversity across the Americas

The broad scale distribution of population-specific genetic diversity (GDP ) across taxa remains understudied relative to species diversity gradients, despite its relevance for systematic conservation planning. We used nuclear DNA data collected from 3678 vertebrate populations across the Americas to assess the role of environmental and spatial variables in structuring the distribution of GDP , a key component of adaptive potential in the face of environmental change. We specifically assessed non-linear trends for a metric of GDP, expected heterozygosity (HE ), and found more evidence for spatial hotspots and cold spots in HE rather than a strict pattern with latitude. We also detected inconsistent relationships between HE and environmental variables, where only 11 of 30 environmental comparisons among taxa groups were statistically significant at the .05 level, and the shape of significant trends differed substantially across vertebrate groups. Only one of six taxonomic groups, freshwater fishes, consistently showed significant relationships between HE and most (four of five) environmental variables. The remaining groups had statistically significant relationships for either two (amphibians, reptiles), one (birds, mammals), or no variables (anadromous fishes). Our study highlights gaps in the theoretical foundation upon which macrogenetic predictions have been made thus far in the literature, as well as the nuances for assessing broad patterns in GDP among vertebrate groups. Overall, our results suggest a disconnect between patterns of species and genetic diversity, and underscores that large-scale factors affecting genetic diversity may not be the same factors as those shaping taxonomic diversity. Thus, careful spatial and taxonomic-specific considerations are needed for applying macrogenetics to conservation planning.

Neutral and adaptive genetic diversity in plants: An overview

Genetic diversity is a prerequisite for evolutionary change in all kinds of organisms. It is generally acknowledged that populations lacking genetic variation are unable to evolve in response to new environmental conditions (e.g., climate change) and thus may face an increased risk of extinction. Although the importance of incorporating genetic diversity into the design of conservation measures is now well understood, less attention has been paid to the distinction between neutral (NGV) and adaptive (AGV) genetic variation. In this review, we first focus on the utility of NGV by examining the ways to quantify it, reviewing applications of NGV to infer ecological and evolutionary processes, and by exploring its utility in designing conservation measures for plant populations and species. Against this background, we then summarize the ways to identify and estimate AGV and discuss its potential use in plant conservation. After comparing NGV and AGV and considering their pros and cons in a conservation context, we conclude that there is an urgent need for a better understanding of AGV and its role in climate change adaptation. To date, however, there are only a few AGV studies on non-model plant species aimed at deciphering the genetic and genomic basis of complex trait variation. Therefore, conservation researchers and practitioners should keep utilizing NGV to develop relevant strategies for rare and endangered plant species until more estimates of AGV are available.

Genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is an important and widely used tool for conservation assessment. The IUCN uses information about a species' range, population size, habitat quality and fragmentation levels, and trends in abundance to assess extinction risk. Genetic diversity is not considered, although it affects extinction risk. Declining populations are more strongly affected by genetic drift and higher rates of inbreeding, which can reduce the efficiency of selection, lead to fitness declines, and hinder species' capacities to adapt to environmental change. Given the importance of conserving genetic diversity, attempts have been made to find relationships between red-list status and genetic diversity. Yet, there is still no consensus on whether genetic diversity is captured by the current IUCN Red List categories in a way that is informative for conservation. To assess the predictive power of correlations between genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status in vertebrates, we synthesized previous work and reanalyzed data sets based on 3 types of genetic data: mitochondrial DNA, microsatellites, and whole genomes. Consistent with previous work, species with higher extinction risk status tended to have lower genetic diversity for all marker types, but these relationships were weak and varied across taxa. Regardless of marker type, genetic diversity did not accurately identify threatened species for any taxonomic group. Our results indicate that red-list status is not a useful metric for informing species-specific decisions about the protection of genetic diversity and that genetic data cannot be used to identify threat status in the absence of demographic data. Thus, there is a need to develop and assess metrics specifically designed to assess genetic diversity and inform conservation policy, including policies recently adopted by the UN's Convention on Biological Diversity Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Systemic racism alters wildlife genetic diversity

In the United States, systemic racism has had lasting effects on the structure of cities, specifically due to government-mandated redlining policies that produced racially segregated neighborhoods that persist today. However, it is not known whether varying habitat structures and natural resource availability associated with racial segregation affect the demographics and evolution of urban wildlife populations. To address this question, we repurposed and reanalyzed publicly archived nuclear genetic data from 7,698 individuals spanning 39 terrestrial vertebrate species sampled in 268 urban locations throughout the United States. We found generally consistent patterns of reduced genetic diversity and decreased connectivity in neighborhoods with fewer White residents, likely because of environmental differences across these neighborhoods. The strength of relationships between the racial composition of neighborhoods, genetic diversity, and differentiation tended to be weak relative to other factors affecting genetic diversity, possibly in part due to the recency of environmental pressures on urban wildlife populations. However, the consistency of the direction of effects across disparate taxa suggest that systemic racism alters the demography of urban wildlife populations in ways that generally limit population sizes and negatively affect their chances of persistence. Our results thus support the idea that limited capacity to support large, well-connected wildlife populations reduces access to nature and builds on existing environmental inequities shouldered by predominantly non-White neighborhoods.

Population demography maintains biogeographic boundaries

Global biodiversity is organised into biogeographic regions that comprise distinct biotas. The contemporary factors maintaining differences in species composition between regions are poorly understood. Given evidence that populations with sufficient genetic variation can adapt to fill new habitats, it is surprising that more homogenisation of species assemblages across regions has not occurred. Theory suggests that expansion across biogeographic regions could be limited by reduced adaptive capacity due to demographic variation along environmental gradients, but this possibility has not been empirically explored. Using three independently curated data sets describing continental patterns of mammalian demography and population genetics, we show that populations near biogeographic boundaries have lower effective population sizes and genetic diversity, and are more genetically differentiated. These patterns are consistent with reduced adaptive capacity in areas where one biogeographic region transitions into the next. That these patterns are replicated across mammals suggests they are stable and generalisable in their contribution to long-term limits on biodiversity homogenisation. Understanding the contemporary processes that maintain compositional differences among regional biotas is crucial for our understanding of the current and future organisation of global biodiversity.

Evolving spatial conservation prioritization with intraspecific genetic data

Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) is a planning framework used to identify new conservation areas on the basis of the spatial distribution of species, ecosystems, and their services to human societies. The ongoing accumulation of intraspecific genetic data on a variety of species offers a way to gain knowledge of intraspecific genetic diversity and to estimate several population characteristics useful in conservation, such as dispersal and population size. Here, we review how intraspecific genetic data have been integrated into SCP and highlight their potential for identifying conservation area networks that represent intraspecific genetic diversity comprehensively and that ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity in the face of global change.

Life history traits and dispersal shape neutral genetic diversity in metapopulations

Genetic diversity at population scale, depends on species life-history traits, population dynamics and local and global environmental factors. We first investigate the effect of life-history traits on the neutral genetic diversity of a single population using a deterministic mathematical model. When the population is stable, we show that semelparous species with precocious maturation and iteroparous species with delayed maturation exhibit higher diversity because their life history traits tend to balance the lifetimes of non reproductive individuals (juveniles) and adults which reproduce. Then, we extend our model to a metapopulation to investigate the additional effect of dispersal on diversity. We show that dispersal may truly modify the local effect of life history on diversity. As a result, the diversity at the global scale of the metapopulation differ from the local diversity which is only described through local life history traits of the populations. In particular, dispersal usually promotes diversity at the global metapopulation scale.

The crucial role of genome-wide genetic variation in conservation

The unprecedented rate of extinction calls for efficient use of genetics to help conserve biodiversity. Several recent genomic and simulation-based studies have argued that the field of conservation biology has placed too much focus on conserving genome-wide genetic variation, and that the field should instead focus on managing the subset of functional genetic variation that is thought to affect fitness. Here, we critically evaluate the feasibility and likely benefits of this approach in conservation. We find that population genetics theory and empirical results show that conserving genome-wide genetic variation is generally the best approach to prevent inbreeding depression and loss of adaptive potential from driving populations toward extinction. Focusing conservation efforts on presumably functional genetic variation will only be feasible occasionally, often misleading, and counterproductive when prioritized over genome-wide genetic variation. Given the increasing rate of habitat loss and other environmental changes, failure to recognize the detrimental effects of lost genome-wide genetic variation on long-term population viability will only worsen the biodiversity crisis.

Genetic and species-level biodiversity patterns are linked by demography and ecological opportunity

The processes that give rise to species richness gradients are not well understood, but may be linked to resource-based limits on the number of species a region can support. Ecological limits placed on regional species richness should also affect population demography, suggesting that these processes could also generate genetic diversity gradients. If true, we might better understand how broad-scale biodiversity patterns are formed by identifying the common causes of genetic diversity and species richness. We develop a hypothetical framework based on the consequences of regional variation in ecological limits set by resource availability and heterogeneity to simultaneously explain spatial patterns of species richness and neutral genetic diversity. Repurposing raw genotypic data spanning 38 mammal species sampled across 801 sites in North America, we show that estimates of genome-wide genetic diversity and species richness share spatial structure. Notably, species richness hotspots tend to harbor lower levels of within-species genetic variation. A structural equation model encompassing eco-evolutionary processes related to resource availability, habitat heterogeneity, and contemporary human disturbance supports the spatial patterns we detect. These results suggest broad-scale patterns of species richness and genetic diversity could both partly be caused by intraspecific demographic and evolutionary processes acting simultaneously across species.

Evolvability: A Quantitative-Genetics Perspective

The concept of evolvability emerged in the early 1990s and soon became fashionable as a label for different streams of research in evolutionary biology. In evolutionary quantitative genetics, evolvability is defined as the ability of a population to respond to directional selection. This differs from other fields by treating evolvability as a property of populations rather than organisms or lineages and in being focused on quantification and short-term prediction rather than on macroevolution. While the term evolvability is new to quantitative genetics, many of the associated ideas and research questions have been with the field from its inception as biometry. Recent research on evolvability is more than a relabeling of old questions, however. New operational measures of evolvability have opened possibilities for understanding adaptation to rapid environmental change, assessing genetic constraints, and linking micro- and macroevolution.

Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change

Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

How is adaptive potential distributed within species ranges?

Quantitative genetic variation (QGV) represents a major component of adaptive potential and, if reduced toward range-edge populations, could prevent a species' expansion or adaptive response to rapid ecological change. It has been hypothesized that QGV will be lower at the range edge due to small populations-often the result of poor habitat quality-and potentially decreased gene flow. However, whether central populations are higher in QGV is unknown. We used a meta-analytic approach to test for a general QGV-range position relationship, including geographic and climatic distance from range centers. We identified 35 studies meeting our criteria, yielding nearly 1000 estimates of QGV (including broad-sense heritability, narrow-sense heritability, and evolvability) from 34 species. The relationship between QGV and distance from the geographic range or climatic niche center depended on the focal trait and how QGV was estimated. We found some evidence that QGV declines from geographic centers but that it increases toward niche edges; niche and geographic distances were uncorrelated. Nevertheless, few studies have compared QGV in both central and marginal regions or environments within the same species. We call for more research in this area and discuss potential research avenues related to adaptive potential in the context of global change.

The population genetics of urban and rural amphibians in North America

Human land transformation is one of the leading causes of vertebrate population declines. These declines are thought to be partly due to decreased connectivity and habitat loss reducing animal population sizes in disturbed habitats. With time, this can lead to declines in effective population size and genetic diversity which restrict the ability of wildlife to efficiently cope with environmental change through genetic adaptation. However, it is not well understood whether these effects generally hold across taxa. We address this question by repurposing and synthesizing raw microsatellite data from online repositories for 19 amphibian species sampled at 554 georeferenced sites in North America. For each site, we estimated gene diversity, allelic richness, effective population size, and population differentiation. Using binary urban-rural census designations, and continuous measures of human population density, the Human Footprint Index, and impervious surface cover, we tested for generalizable effects of human land use on amphibian genetic diversity. We found minimal evidence, either positive or negative, for relationships between genetic metrics and urbanization. Together with previous work on focal species that also found varying effects of urbanization on genetic composition, it seems likely that the consequences of urbanization are not easily generalizable within or across amphibian species. Questions about the genetic consequences of urbanization for amphibians should be addressed on a case-by-case basis. This contrasts with general negative effects of urbanization in mammals and consistent, but species-specific, positive and negative effects in birds.

Building a bridge between adaptive capacity and adaptive potential to understand responses to environmental change

Adaptive capacity is a topic at the forefront of environmental change research with roots in both social, ecological, and evolutionary science. It is closely related to the evolutionary biology concept of adaptive potential. In this systematic literature review, we: (1) summarize the history of these topics and related fields; (2) assess relationship(s) between the concepts among disciplines and the use of the terms in climate change research, and evaluate methodologies, metrics, taxa biases, and the geographic scale of studies; and (3) provide a synthetic conceptual framework to clarify concepts. Bibliometric analyses revealed the terms have been used most frequently in conservation and evolutionary biology journals, respectively. There has been a greater growth in studies of adaptive potential than adaptive capacity since 2001, but a greater geographical extent of adaptive capacity studies. Few studies include both, and use is often superficial. Our synthesis considers adaptive potential as one process contributing to adaptive capacity of complex systems, notes "sociological" adaptive capacity definitions include actions aimed at desired outcome (i.e., policies) as a system driver whereas "biological" definitions exclude such drivers, and suggests models of adaptive capacity require integration of evolutionary and social-ecological system components.

Introduced populations of ragweed show as much evolutionary potential as native populations

Invasive species are a global economic and ecological problem. They also offer an opportunity to understand evolutionary processes in a colonizing context. The impacts of evolutionary factors, such as genetic variation, on the invasion process are increasingly appreciated, but there remain gaps in the empirical literature. The adaptive potential of populations can be quantified using genetic variance-covariance matrices (G), which encapsulate the heritable genetic variance in a population. Here, we use a multivariate Bayesian approach to assess the adaptive potential of invasive populations of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a serious allergen and agricultural weed. We compared several aspects of genetic architecture and the structure of G matrices between three native and three introduced populations, based on phenotypic data collected in a field common garden experiment. We found moderate differences in the quantitative genetic architecture among populations, but we did not find that introduced populations suffer from a limited adaptive potential or increased genetic constraint compared with native populations. Ragweed has an annual life history, is an obligate outcrosser, and produces very large numbers of seeds and pollen grains. These characteristics, combined with the significant additive genetic variance documented here, suggest ragweed will be able to respond quickly to selection pressures in both its native and introduced ranges.

Life history, climate and biogeography interactively affect worldwide genetic diversity of plant and animal populations

Understanding how biological and environmental factors interactively shape the global distribution of plant and animal genetic diversity is fundamental to biodiversity conservation. Genetic diversity measured in local populations (GDP) is correspondingly assumed representative for population fitness and eco-evolutionary dynamics. For 8356 populations across the globe, we report that plants systematically display much lower GDP than animals, and that life history traits shape GDP patterns both directly (animal longevity and size), and indirectly by mediating core-periphery patterns (animal fecundity and plant dispersal). Particularly in some plant groups, peripheral populations can sustain similar GDP as core populations, emphasizing their potential conservation value. We further find surprisingly weak support for general latitudinal GDP trends. Finally, contemporary rather than past climate contributes to the spatial distribution of GDP, suggesting that contemporary environmental changes affect global patterns of GDP. Our findings generate new perspectives for the conservation of genetic resources at worldwide and taxonomic-wide scales.

Genetic diversity of North American vertebrates in protected areas

Protected areas play a crucial role in the conservation of biodiversity; however, it is unclear if these areas have an influence on genetic diversity. As a first step towards addressing this issue, we compare the genetic diversity inside and outside of protected areas. We tested the null hypothesis that there is no difference between genetic diversity inside compared to outside of protected areas in 44 vertebrate species. By automatically skimming the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) GenBank we obtained genetic and geographical data to be repurposed and reanalysed. Novel pipelines were used to automate the process of assigning individuals to inside or outside of protected areas and then used to calculate different measures of intraspecific diversity. Forty-eight percent of examined species showed a significant difference in the amount of nucleotide diversity they contained inside compared to outside of protected areas, with similar numbers of species containing more or less genetic diversity inside compared to outside. Although our simulation testing suggests that this result is not an artefact of sampling, it is unclear what factors influence the relative amount of genetic diversity in protected areas across species.

Predicting amphibian intraspecific diversity with machine learning: Challenges and prospects for integrating traits, geography, and genetic data

The growing availability of genetic data sets, in combination with machine learning frameworks, offers great potential to answer long-standing questions in ecology and evolution. One such question has intrigued population geneticists, biogeographers, and conservation biologists: What factors determine intraspecific genetic diversity? This question is challenging to answer because many factors may influence genetic variation, including life history traits, historical influences, and geography, and the relative importance of these factors varies across taxonomic and geographic scales. Furthermore, interpreting the influence of numerous, potentially correlated variables is difficult with traditional statistical approaches. To address these challenges, we analysed repurposed data using machine learning and investigated predictors of genetic diversity, focusing on Nearctic amphibians as a case study. We aggregated species traits, range characteristics, and >42,000 genetic sequences for 299 species using open-access scripts and various databases. After identifying important predictors of nucleotide diversity with random forest regression, we conducted follow-up analyses to examine the roles of phylogenetic history, geography, and demographic processes on intraspecific diversity. Although life history traits were not important predictors for this data set, we found significant phylogenetic signal in genetic diversity within amphibians. We also found that salamander species at northern latitudes contained low genetic diversity. Data repurposing and machine learning provide valuable tools for detecting patterns with relevance for conservation, but concerted efforts are needed to compile meaningful data sets with greater utility for understanding global biodiversity.

Earlier onset of flowering and increased reproductive allocation of an annual invasive plant in the north of its novel range

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It remains unclear whether invasive species can maintain both high biomass and reproductive output across their invaded range. Along latitudinal gradients, allocation theory predicts that faster flowering onset at high latitudes results in maturation at smaller size and thus reduced reproductive output. For annual invasive plants, more favourable environmental conditions at low latitudes probably result in stronger competition of co-occurring species, potentially driving selection for higher investment in vegetative biomass, while harsher climatic conditions and associated reproductive uncertainty at higher latitudes could reduce selection for vegetative biomass and increased selection for high reproductive investment (stress-gradient hypothesis). Combined, these drivers could result in increased or constant reproductive allocation with increasing latitude.

METHODS

We quantified life-history traits in the invasive annual plant Impatiens glandulifera along a latitudinal gradient in Europe. By growing two successive glasshouse generations, we assessed genetic differentiation in vegetative growth and reproductive output across six populations, and tested whether onset of flowering drives this divergence.

KEY RESULTS

Trait variation was mainly caused by genetic differentiation. As expected, flowering onset was progressively earlier in populations from higher latitudes. Plant height and vegetative biomass also decreased in populations from higher latitudes, as predicted by allocation theory, but their variation was independent of the variation in flowering onset. Reproductive output remained constant across latitudes, resulting in increased reproductive allocation towards higher latitudes, supporting the stress-gradient hypothesis. We also observed trait genetic differentiation among populations that was independent of latitude.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that an annual invasive plant evolved several life-history traits across its invaded range in ~150 years. The evolution of vegetative and reproductive traits seems unconstrained by evolution of flowering onset. This genetic decoupling between vegetative and reproductive traits possibly contributes to the invasion success of this species.

Hidden genetic variance contributes to increase the short-term adaptive potential of selfing populations

Standing genetic variation is considered a major contributor to the adaptive potential of species. The low heritable genetic variation observed in self-fertilizing populations has led to the hypothesis that species with this mating system would be less likely to adapt. However, a non-negligible amount of cryptic genetic variation for polygenic traits, accumulated through negative linkage disequilibrium, could prove to be an important source of standing variation in self-fertilizing species. To test this hypothesis, we simulated populations under stabilizing selection subjected to an environmental change. We demonstrate that, when the mutation rate is high (but realistic), selfing populations are better able to store genetic variance than outcrossing populations through genetic associations, notably due to the reduced effective recombination rate associated with predominant selfing. Following an environmental shift, this diversity can be partially remobilized, which increases the additive variance and adaptive potential of predominantly (but not completely) selfing populations. In such conditions, despite initially lower observed genetic variance, selfing populations adapt as readily as outcrossing ones within a few generations. For low mutation rates, purifying selection impedes the storage of diversity through genetic associations, in which case, as previously predicted, the lower genetic variance of selfing populations results in lower adaptability compared to their outcrossing counterparts. The population size and the mutation rate are the main parameters to consider, as they are the best predictors of the amount of stored diversity in selfing populations. Our results and their impact on our knowledge of adaptation under high selfing rates are discussed.

The dimensions of evolutionary potential in biological conservation

It is now well admitted by ecologists that the conservation of biodiversity should imply preserving the evolutionary processes that will permit its adaptation to ongoing and future environmental changes. This is attested by the ever-growing reference to the conservation of evolutionary potential in the scientific literature. The impression that one may have when reading papers is that conserving evolutionary potential can only be a good thing, whatever biological system is under scrutiny. However, different objectives, such as maintaining species richness versus ecosystem services, may express different, when not conflicting, underlying values attributed to biodiversity. For instance, biodiversity can be intrinsically valued, as worth it to be conserved per se, or it can be conserved as a means for human flourishing. Consequently, both the concept of evolutionary potential and the prescriptions derived from the commitment to conserve it remain problematic, due to a lack of explicit mention of the norms underlying different conservation visions. Here, we contend that those who advocate for the conservation of evolutionary potential should position their conception along four dimensions: what vehicles instantiate the evolutionary potential relevant to their normative commitment; what temporality is involved; how measurable evolutionary potential is, and what degree of human influence is tolerated. We need to address these dimensions if we are to determine why and when the maintenance of evolutionary potential is an appropriate target for the conservation of biodiversity.

Continent-wide effects of urbanization on bird and mammal genetic diversity

Urbanization and associated environmental changes are causing global declines in vertebrate populations. In general, population declines of the magnitudes now detected should lead to reduced effective population sizes for animals living in proximity to humans and disturbed lands. This is a cause for concern because effective population sizes set the rate of genetic diversity loss due to genetic drift, the rate of increase in inbreeding and the efficiency with which selection can act on beneficial alleles. We predicted that the effects of urbanization should decrease effective population size and genetic diversity, and increase population-level genetic differentiation. To test for such patterns, we repurposed and reanalysed publicly archived genetic datasets for North American birds and mammals. After filtering, we had usable raw genotype data from 85 studies and 41 023 individuals, sampled from 1008 locations spanning 41 mammal and 25 bird species. We used census-based urban-rural designations, human population density and the Human Footprint Index as measures of urbanization and habitat disturbance. As predicted, mammals sampled in more disturbed environments had lower effective population sizes and genetic diversity, and were more genetically differentiated from those in more natural environments. There were no consistent relationships detectable for birds. This suggests that, in general, mammal populations living near humans may have less capacity to respond adaptively to further environmental changes, and be more likely to suffer from effects of inbreeding.

Adaptation to local climate in multi-trait space: evidence from silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations across a heterogeneous environment

Heterogeneous environments, such as mountainous landscapes, create spatially varying selection pressure that potentially affects several traits simultaneously across different life stages, yet little is known about the general patterns and drivers of adaptation in such complex settings. We studied silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations across Switzerland and characterized its mountainous landscape using downscaled historical climate data. We sampled 387 trees from 19 populations and genotyped them at 374 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate their demographic distances. Seedling morphology, growth and phenology traits were recorded in a common garden, and a proxy for water use efficiency was estimated for adult trees. We tested whether populations have more strongly diverged at quantitative traits than expected based on genetic drift alone in a multi-trait framework, and identified potential environmental drivers of selection. We found two main responses to selection: (i) populations from warmer and more thermally stable locations have evolved towards a taller stature, and (ii) the growth timing of populations evolved towards two extreme strategies, 'start early and grow slowly' or 'start late and grow fast', driven by precipitation seasonality. Populations following the 'start early and grow slowly' strategy had higher water use efficiency and came from inner Alpine valleys characterized by pronounced summer droughts. Our results suggest that contrasting adaptive life-history strategies exist in silver fir across different life stages (seedling to adult), and that some of the characterized populations may provide suitable seed sources for tree growth under future climatic conditions.

Systematic conservation planning for intraspecific genetic diversity

Intraspecific diversity informs the demographic and evolutionary histories of populations, and should be a main conservation target. Although approaches exist for identifying relevant biological conservation units, attempts to identify priority conservation areas for intraspecific diversity are scarce, especially within a multi-specific framework. We used neutral molecular data on six European freshwater fish species (Squalius cephalus, Phoxinus phoxinus, Barbatula barbatula, Gobio occitaniae, Leuciscus burdigalensis and Parachondrostoma toxostoma) sampled at the riverscape scale (i.e. the Garonne-Dordogne river basin, France) to determine hot- and coldspots of genetic diversity, and to identify priority conservation areas using a systematic conservation planning approach. We demonstrate that systematic conservation planning is efficient for identifying priority areas representing a predefined part of the total genetic diversity of a whole landscape. With the exception of private allelic richness (PA), classical genetic diversity indices (allelic richness, genetic uniqueness) were poor predictors for identifying priority areas. Moreover, we identified weak surrogacies among conservation solutions found for each species, implying that conservation solutions are highly species-specific. Nonetheless, we showed that priority areas identified using intraspecific genetic data from multiple species provide more effective conservation solutions than areas identified for single species or on the basis of traditional taxonomic criteria.

Evolutionary potential varies across populations and traits in the neotropical oak Quercus oleoides

Heritable variation in polygenic (quantitative) traits is critical for adaptive evolution and is especially important in this era of rapid climate change. In this study, we examined the levels of quantitative genetic variation of populations of the tropical tree Quercus oleoides Cham. and Schlect. for a suite of traits related to resource use and drought resistance. We tested whether quantitative genetic variation differed across traits, populations and watering treatments. We also tested potential evolutionary factors that might have shaped such a pattern: selection by climate and genetic drift. We measured 15 functional traits on 1322 1-year-old seedlings of 84 maternal half-sib families originating from five populations growing under two watering treatments in a greenhouse. We estimated the additive genetic variance, coefficient of additive genetic variation and narrow-sense heritability for each combination of traits, populations and treatments. In addition, we genotyped a total of 119 individuals (with at least 20 individuals per population) using nuclear microsatellites to estimate genetic diversity and population genetic structure. Our results showed that gas exchange traits and growth exhibited strikingly high quantitative genetic variation compared with traits related to leaf morphology, anatomy and photochemistry. Quantitative genetic variation differed between populations even at geographical scales as small as a few kilometers. Climate was associated with quantitative genetic variation, but only weakly. Genetic structure and diversity in neutral markers did not relate to coefficient of additive genetic variation. Our study demonstrates that quantitative genetic variation is not homogeneous across traits and populations of Q. oleoides. More importantly, our findings suggest that predictions about potential responses of species to climate change need to consider population-specific evolutionary characteristics.

Can threatened species adapt in a restored habitat? No expected evolutionary response in lay date for the New Zealand hihi

Many bird species have been observed shifting their laying date to earlier in the year in response to climate change. However, the vast majority of these studies were performed on non-threatened species, less impacted by reduced genetic diversity (which is expected to limit evolutionary response) as a consequence of genetic bottlenecks, drift and population isolation. Here, we study the relationship between lay date and fitness, as well as its genetic basis, to understand the evolutionary constraints on phenology faced by threatened species using a recently reintroduced population of the endangered New Zealand passerine, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta). A large discrepancy between the optimal laying date and the mode of laying date creates a strong selection differential of -11.24. The impact of this discrepancy on fitness is principally mediated through survival of offspring from hatchling to fledgling. This discrepancy does not seem to arise from a difference in female quality or a trade-off with lifetime breeding success. We find that start of breeding season depends on female age and average temperature prior to the breeding season. Laying date is not found to be significantly heritable. Overall, our research suggests that this discrepancy is a burden on hihi fitness, which will not be resolved through evolution or phenotypic plasticity. More generally, these results show that threatened species introduced to restored habitats might lack adaptive potential and plasticity to adjust their phenology to their new environment. This constraint is also likely to limit their ability to face future challenges, including climate change.

Evolutionary rescue in a host-pathogen system results in coexistence not clearance

The evolutionary rescue of host populations may prevent extinction from novel pathogens. However, the conditions that facilitate rapid evolution of hosts, in particular the population variation in host susceptibility, and the effects of host evolution in response to pathogens on population outcomes remain largely unknown. We constructed an individual-based model to determine the relationships between genetic variation in host susceptibility and population persistence in an amphibian-fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) system. We found that host populations can rapidly evolve reduced susceptibility to a novel pathogen and that this rapid evolution led to a 71-fold increase in the likelihood of host-pathogen coexistence. However, the increased rates of coexistence came at a cost to host populations; fewer populations cleared infection, population sizes were depressed, and neutral genetic diversity was lost. Larger adult host population sizes and greater adaptive genetic variation prior to the onset of pathogen introduction led to substantially reduced rates of extinction, suggesting that populations with these characteristics should be prioritized for conservation when species are threatened by novel infectious diseases.

The Missing Response to Selection in the Wild

Although there are many examples of contemporary directional selection, evidence for responses to selection that match predictions are often missing in quantitative genetic studies of wild populations. This is despite the presence of genetic variation and selection pressures – theoretical prerequisites for the response to selection. This conundrum can be explained by statistical issues with accurate parameter estimation, and by biological mechanisms that interfere with the response to selection. These biological mechanisms can accelerate or constrain this response. These mechanisms are generally studied independently but might act simultaneously. We therefore integrated these mechanisms to explore their potential combined effect. This has implications for explaining the apparent evolutionary stasis of wild populations and the conservation of wildlife.

Recent discoveries at the intersection of quantitative genetics and evolutionary ecology are challenging our views on the potential of wild populations to respond to selection.

Multiple biological mechanisms can disconnect genetic variation from the response to selection in the wild. We highlight areas for future research.

We provide an integrative framework that can be used to qualitatively assess the combined influence of these mechanisms on the response to selection.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Prelude to a panzootic: Gene flow and immunogenetic variation in northern little brown myotis vulnerable to bat white-nose syndrome

The fungus that causes bat white-nose syndrome (WNS) recently leaped from eastern North America to the Pacific Coast. The pathogen’s spread is associated with the genetic population structure of a host ( Myotis lucifugus). To understand the fine-scale neutral and immunogenetic variation among northern populations of M. lucifugus, we sampled 1142 individuals across the species’ northern range. We used genotypes at 11 microsatellite loci to reveal the genetic structure of, and directional gene flow among, populations to predict the likely future spread of the pathogen in the northwest and to estimate effective population size ( Ne). We also pyrosequenced the DRB1-like exon 2 of the class II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in 160 individuals to explore immunogenetic selection by WNS. We identified three major neutral genetic clusters: Eastern, Montane Cordillera (and adjacent sampling areas), and Haida Gwaii, with admixture at intermediate areas and significant substructure west of the prairies. Estimates of Ne were unexpectedly low (289–16 000). Haida Gwaii may provide temporary refuge from WNS, but the western mountain ranges are not barriers to its dispersal in M. lucifugus and are unlikely to slow its spread. Our major histocompatibility complex (MHC) data suggest potential selection by WNS on the MHC, but gene duplication limited the immunogenetic analyses.

Estimating genomic diversity and population differentiation - an empirical comparison of microsatellite and SNP variation in Arabidopsis halleri

BACKGROUND

Microsatellite markers are widely used for estimating genetic diversity within and differentiation among populations. However, it has rarely been tested whether such estimates are useful proxies for genome-wide patterns of variation and differentiation. Here, we compared microsatellite variation with genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to assess and quantify potential marker-specific biases and derive recommendations for future studies. Overall, we genotyped 180 Arabidopsis halleri individuals from nine populations using 20 microsatellite markers. Twelve of these markers were originally developed for Arabidopsis thaliana (cross-species markers) and eight for A. halleri (species-specific markers). We further characterized 2 million SNPs across the genome with a pooled whole-genome re-sequencing approach (Pool-Seq).

RESULTS

Our analyses revealed that estimates of genetic diversity and differentiation derived from cross-species and species-specific microsatellites differed substantially and that expected microsatellite heterozygosity (SSR-H e) was not significantly correlated with genome-wide SNP diversity estimates (SNP-H e and θ Watterson) in A. halleri. Instead, microsatellite allelic richness (A r) was a better proxy for genome-wide SNP diversity. Estimates of genetic differentiation among populations (F ST) based on both marker types were correlated, but microsatellite-based estimates were significantly larger than those from SNPs. Possible causes include the limited number of microsatellite markers used, marker ascertainment bias, as well as the high variance in microsatellite-derived estimates. In contrast, genome-wide SNP data provided unbiased estimates of genetic diversity independent of whether genome- or only exome-wide SNPs were used. Further, we inferred that a few thousand random SNPs are sufficient to reliably estimate genome-wide diversity and to distinguish among populations differing in genetic variation.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that future analyses of genetic diversity within and differentiation among populations use randomly selected high-throughput sequencing-based SNP data to draw conclusions on genome-wide diversity patterns. In species comparable to A. halleri, a few thousand SNPs are sufficient to achieve this goal.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity inN. stellatus Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

Does Genetic Variation Maintained by Environmental Heterogeneity Facilitate Adaptation to Novel Selection?

Environmental heterogeneity helps maintain genetic variation in fitness. Therefore, one might predict that populations living in heterogeneous environments have higher adaptive potential than populations living in homogeneous environments. Such a prediction could be useful in guiding conservation priorities without requiring detailed genetic studies. However, this prediction will be true only if the additional genetic variation maintained by environmental heterogeneity can be used to respond to novel selection. Here we examine the effect of environmental heterogeneity on future adaptability using replicated experimental Drosophila melanogaster populations that had previously evolved for ∼100 generations under one of four selective regimes: constant salt-enriched larvae medium, constant cadmium-enriched larvae medium, and two heterogeneous regimes that vary either temporally or spatially between the two media. Replicates of these experimental populations were subjected to a novel heat stress while being maintained in their original larval diet selection regimes. Adaptation to increased temperature was measured with respect to female productivity and male siring success after ∼20 generations. For female productivity, there was evidence of adaptation overall and heterogeneous populations had a larger adaptive response than homogeneous populations. There was less evidence of adaptation overall for male siring success and no support for faster adaptation in heterogeneous populations.

Spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity and the maintenance of the tailspot polymorphism in the variable platyfish (Xiphophorus variatus)

Genetic variation is critical for adaptive evolution. Despite its importance, there is still limited evidence in support of some prominent theoretical models explaining the maintenance of genetic polymorphism within populations. We examined 84 populations of Xiphophorus variatus, a livebearing fish with a genetic polymorphism associated with physiological performance, to test: (1) whether niche differentiation explains broad-scale maintenance of polymorphism, (2) whether polymorphism is maintained among populations by local adaptation and migration, or (3) whether heterogeneity in explicit environmental variables could be linked to levels of polymorphism within populations. We found no evidence of climatic niche differentiation that could generate or maintain broad geographic variation in polymorphism. Subsequently, hierarchical partitioning of genetic richness and partial mantel tests revealed that 76% of the observed genetic richness was partitioned within populations with no effect of geographic distance on polymorphism. These results strongly suggest a lack of migration-selection balance in the maintenance of polymorphism, and model selection confirmed a significant relationship between environmental heterogeneity and genetic richness within populations. Few studies have demonstrated such effects at this scale, and additional studies in other taxa should examine the generality of gene-by-environment interactions across populations to better understand the dynamics and scale of balancing selection.