Potential landscape-scale pollinator networks across Great Britain: structure, stability and influence of agricultural land cover

Quantifying farm sustainability through the lens of ecological theory

The achievements of the Green Revolution in meeting the nutritional needs of a growing global population have been won at the expense of unintended consequences for the environment. Some of these negative impacts are now threatening the sustainability of food production through the loss of pollinators and natural enemies of crop pests, the evolution of pesticide resistance, declining soil health and vulnerability to climate change. In the search for farming systems that are sustainable both agronomically and environmentally, alternative approaches have been proposed variously called 'agroecological', 'conservation agriculture', 'regenerative' and 'sustainable intensification'. While the widespread recognition of the need for more sustainable farming is to be welcomed, this has created etymological confusion that has the potential to become a barrier to transformation. There is a need, therefore, for objective criteria to evaluate alternative farming systems and to quantify farm sustainability against multiple outcomes. To help meet this challenge, we reviewed the ecological theories that explain variance in regulating and supporting ecosystem services delivered by biological communities in farmland to identify guiding principles for management change. For each theory, we identified associated system metrics that could be used as proxies for agroecosystem function. We identified five principles derived from ecological theory: (i) provide key habitats for ecosystem service providers; (ii) increase crop and non-crop habitat diversity; (iii) increase edge density: (iv) increase nutrient-use efficiency; and (v) avoid extremes of disturbance. By making published knowledge the foundation of the choice of associated metrics, our aim was to establish a broad consensus for their use in sustainability assessment frameworks. Further analysis of their association with farm-scale data on biological communities and/or ecosystem service delivery would provide additional validation for their selection and support for the underpinning theories.

Analyzing the relative importance of habitat quantity and quality for boosting pollinator populations in agricultural landscapes

To increase pollinator populations, international policy targets minimum levels of seminatural habitat cover, but it is unknown whether improving the quality of existing habitats could bring similar benefits without the need of reducing cropland area. Using data we collected in 26 Italian agricultural landscapes during the entire flying season, we explored the relative importance of habitat quantity (seminatural habitat cover) and quality (flower availability) on pollinator densities in seminatural habitats. We obtained transect-based counts and estimated the effect of habitat quantity (proportion of seminatural habitat) and quality (flower cover and richness) on wild bee and hoverfly densities. We used the relationships revealed in the data to simulate pollinator population sizes in landscapes with varying habitat quantity and quality. Wild bee densities were only related to flower availability, whereas hoverfly densities were additionally related to seminatural habitat cover. We found that in complex agricultural landscapes (above 15% seminatural habitat cover), improving habitat quality increased pollinator populations more effectively than increasing habitat quantity. However, increasing habitat quantity was by far the most effective approach for boosting pollinator populations in simple landscapes.

Agricultural landscape simplification affects wild plant reproduction indirectly through herbivore-mediated changes in floral display

As natural landscapes are modified and converted into simplified agricultural landscapes, the community composition and interactions of organisms persisting in these modified landscapes are altered. While many studies examine the consequences of these changing interactions for crops, few have evaluated the effects on wild plants. Here, we examine how pollinator and herbivore interactions affect reproductive success for wild resident and phytometer plants at sites along a landscape gradient ranging from natural to highly simplified. We tested the direct and indirect effects of landscape composition on plant traits and reproduction mediated by insect interactions. For phytometer plants exposed to herbivores, we found that greater landscape complexity corresponded with elevated herbivore damage, which reduced total flower production but increased individual flower size. Though larger flowers increased pollination, the reduction in flowers ultimately reduced plant reproductive success. Herbivory was also higher in complex landscapes for resident plants, but overall damage was low and therefore did not have a cascading effect on floral display and reproduction. This work highlights that landscape composition directly affects patterns of herbivory with cascading effects on pollination and wild plant reproduction. Further, the absence of an effect on reproduction for resident plants suggests that they may be adapted to their local insect community.

Biodiversity loss impacts top-down regulation of insect herbivores across ecosystem boundaries

Biodiversity loss, as driven by anthropogenic global change, imperils biosphere intactness and integrity. Ecosystem services such as top-down regulation (or biological control; BC) are susceptible to loss of extinction-prone taxa at upper trophic levels and secondary 'support' species e.g., herbivores. Here, drawing upon curated open-access interaction data, we structurally analyze trophic networks centered on the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and assess their robustness to species loss. Tri-partite networks link 80 BC organisms (invertebrate or microbial), 512 lepidopteran hosts and 1194 plants (including 147 cultivated crops) in the Neotropics. These comprise threatened herbaceous or woody plants and conservation flagships such as saturniid moths. Treating all interaction partners functionally equivalent, random herbivore loss exerts a respective 26 % or 108 % higher impact on top-down regulation in crop and non-crop settings than that of BC organisms (at 50 % loss). Equally, random loss of BC organisms affects herbivore regulation to a greater extent (13.8 % at 50 % loss) than herbivore loss mediates their preservation (11.4 %). Yet, under moderate biodiversity loss, (non-pest) herbivores prove highly susceptible to loss of BC organisms. Our topological approach spotlights how agriculturally-subsidized BC agents benefit vegetation restoration, while non-pest herbivores uphold biological control in on- and off-farm settings alike. Our work underlines how the on-farm usage of endemic biological control organisms can advance conservation, restoration, and agricultural sustainability imperatives. We discuss how integrative approaches and close interdisciplinary cooperation can spawn desirable outcomes for science, policy and practice.

Stability in plant-pollinator communities across organizational levels: present, gaps, and future

Abstract. The study of ecological stability continues to fill the pages of scientific journals almost seven decades after the first ecologists initiated this line of research. The many advances in this field have focused on understanding the stability of populations, communities or functions within single guilds or trophic levels, with less research conducted across multiple trophic levels and considering the different interactions that relate species to each other. Here, we review the recent literature on the multiple dimensions of ecological stability specifically within plant-pollinator communities. We then focus on one of stability´s dimensions, temporal invariability, and adapt an existing partitioning framework that bridges invariability and synchrony measures across spatial scales and organizational levels to accommodate interactions between plants and their pollinators. Finally, we use this framework to analyse temporal invariability in plant reproductive success, partitioning it on invariability and synchrony components across plant and pollinator populations and communities, as well as their interactions, using a well-resolved dataset that encompasses data for two years. Our review of the literature points to several significant gaps in our current knowledge, with simulation studies clearly overrepresented in the literature as opposed to experimental or empirical approaches. Our quantitative approach to partitioning invariability shows similar patterns of decreasing temporal invariability across increasing organizational levels driven by asynchronous dynamics amongst populations and communities, which overall stabilize ecosystem functioning (plant reproductive success). This study represents a first step towards a better comprehension of temporal invariability in ecosystem functions defined by interactions between species and provides a blueprint for the type of spatially replicated multi-year data that needs to be collected in the future to further our understanding of ecological stability within multi-trophic communities.

Crop and landscape heterogeneity increase biodiversity in agricultural landscapes: A global review and meta-analysis

Agricultural intensification not only increases food production but also drives widespread biodiversity decline. Increasing landscape heterogeneity has been suggested to increase biodiversity across habitats, while increasing crop heterogeneity may support biodiversity within agroecosystems. These spatial heterogeneity effects can be partitioned into compositional (land-cover type diversity) and configurational heterogeneity (land-cover type arrangement), measured either for the crop mosaic or across the landscape for both crops and semi-natural habitats. However, studies have reported mixed responses of biodiversity to increases in these heterogeneity components across taxa and contexts. Our meta-analysis covering 6397 fields across 122 studies conducted in Asia, Europe, North and South America reveals consistently positive effects of crop and landscape heterogeneity, as well as compositional and configurational heterogeneity for plant, invertebrate, vertebrate, pollinator and predator biodiversity. Vertebrates and plants benefit more from landscape heterogeneity, while invertebrates derive similar benefits from both crop and landscape heterogeneity. Pollinators benefit more from configurational heterogeneity, but predators favour compositional heterogeneity. These positive effects are consistent for invertebrates and vertebrates in both tropical/subtropical and temperate agroecosystems, and in annual and perennial cropping systems, and at small to large spatial scales. Our results suggest that promoting increased landscape heterogeneity by diversifying crops and semi-natural habitats, as suggested in the current UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, is key for restoring biodiversity in agricultural landscapes.

Invertebrate biodiversity continues to decline in cropland

Modern agriculture has drastically changed global landscapes and introduced pressures on wildlife populations. Policy and management of agricultural systems has changed over the last 30 years, a period characterized not only by intensive agricultural practices but also by an increasing push towards sustainability. It is crucial that we understand the long-term consequences of agriculture on beneficial invertebrates and assess if policy and management approaches recently introduced are supporting their recovery. In this study, we use large citizen science datasets to derive trends in invertebrate occupancy in Great Britain between 1990 and 2019. We compare these trends between regions of no- (0%), low- (greater than 0-50%) and high-cropland (greater than 50%) cover, which includes arable and horticultural crops. Although we detect general declines, invertebrate groups are declining most strongly in high-cropland cover regions. This suggests that even in the light of improved policy and management over the last 30 years, the way we are managing cropland is failing to conserve and restore invertebrate communities. New policy-based drivers and incentives are required to support the resilience and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. Post-Brexit changes in UK agricultural policy and reforms under the Environment Act offer opportunities to improve agricultural landscapes for the benefit of biodiversity and society.

Trait matching and sampling effort shape the structure of the frugivory network in Afrotropical forests

Frugivory in tropical forests is a major ecological process as most tree species rely on frugivores to disperse their seeds. However, the underlying mechanisms driving frugivore-plant networks remain understudied. Here, we evaluate the data available on the Afrotropical frugivory network to identify structural properties, as well as assess knowledge gaps. We assembled a database of frugivory interactions from the literature with > 10 000 links, between 807 tree and 285 frugivore species. We analysed the network structure using a block model that groups species with similar interaction patterns and estimates interaction probabilities among them. We investigated the species traits related to this grouping structure. This frugivory network was simplified into 14 tree and 14 frugivore blocks. The block structure depended on the sampling effort among species: Large mammals were better-studied, while smaller frugivores were the least studied. Species traits related to frugivory were strong predictors of the species composition of blocks and interactions among them. Fruits from larger trees were consumed by most frugivores, and large frugivores had higher probabilities to consume larger fruits. To conclude, this large-scale frugivory network was mainly structured by species traits involved in frugivory, and as expected by the distribution areas of species, while still being limited by sampling incompleteness.

Addressing pollination deficits in orchard crops through habitat management for wild pollinators

There is increasing evidence that farmers in many areas are achieving below maximum yields due to insufficient pollination. Practical and effective approaches are needed to maintain wild pollinator populations within agroecosystems so they can deliver critical pollination services that underpin crop production. We established nesting and wildflower habitat interventions in 24 UK apple orchards and measured effects on flower-visiting insects and the pollination they provide, exploring how this was affected by landscape context. We quantified the extent of pollination deficits and assessed whether the management of wild pollinators can reduce deficits and deliver improved outcomes for growers over 3 years. Wildflower interventions increased solitary bee numbers visiting apple flowers by over 20%, but there was no effect of nesting interventions. Other pollinator groups were influenced by both local and landscape-scale factors, with bumblebees and hoverflies responding to the relative proportion of semi-natural habitat at larger spatial scales (1000 m), while honeybees and other flies responded at 500 m or less. By improving fruit number and quality, pollinators contributed more than £16 k per hectare. However, deficits (where maximum potential was not being reached due to a lack of pollination) were recorded and the extent of these varied across orchards, and from year to year, with a 22% deficit in output in the worst (equivalent to ~£14 k/ha) compared to less than 3% (equivalent to ~£2 k/ha) in the best year. Although no direct effect of our habitat interventions on deficits in gross output was observed, initial fruit set and seed set deficits were reduced by abundant bumblebees, and orchards with a greater abundance of solitary bees saw lower deficits in fruit size. The abundance of pollinators in apple orchards is influenced by different local and landscape factors that interact and vary between years. Consequently, pollination, and the extent of economic output deficits, also vary between orchards and years. We highlight how approaches, including establishing wildflower areas and optimizing the ratio of cropped and non-cropped habitats can increase the abundance of key apple pollinators and improve outcomes for growers.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

Plant-frugivore network simplification under habitat fragmentation leaves a small core of interacting generalists

Habitat fragmentation impacts seed dispersal processes that are important in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. However, it is still unclear how habitat fragmentation affects frugivorous interactions due to the lack of high-quality data on plant-frugivore networks. Here we recorded 10,117 plant-frugivore interactions from 22 reservoir islands and six nearby mainland sites using the technology of arboreal camera trapping to assess the effects of island area and isolation on the diversity, structure, and stability of plant-frugivore networks. We found that network simplification under habitat fragmentation reduces the number of interactions involving specialized species and large-bodied frugivores. Small islands had more connected, less modular, and more nested networks that consisted mainly of small-bodied birds and abundant plants, as well as showed evidence of interaction release (i.e., dietary expansion of frugivores). Our results reveal the importance of preserving large forest remnants to support plant-frugivore interaction diversity and forest functionality.

Smaller communities, such as those on islands, under ecological network simplification reduce interactions between specialist organisms.

Effect of Landscape Composition and Invasive Plants on Pollination Networks of Smallholder Orchards in Northeastern Thailand

Destruction of natural habitat, land-use changes and biological invasion are some of the major threats to biodiversity. Both habitat alteration and biological invasions can have impacts on pollinator communities and pollination network structures. This study aims to examine the effect of an invasive plant, praxelis (Praxelis clematidea; Asteraceae), and land-use types on pollinator communities and the structure of pollination networks. We conducted the study in smallholder orchards which are either invaded or non-invaded by P. clematidea. We estimated the pollinator richness, visitation rates, and pollinator diversity and evaluated the network structures from 18 smallholder orchards in Northeastern Thailand. The effect of landscape structure in the vicinity of the orchards was investigated, with the proportion of agricultural, forest, and urban landscape within a 3 km radius analyzed. The invasive species and land-use disturbance influence the pollinator communities and pollination network structure at species level was affected by the presence of P. clematidea. Bees were the most important pollinator group for pollinator communities and pollination networks of both invaded or non-invaded plots, as bees are a generalist species, they provide the coherence of both the network and its own module. The urban landscape had a strong negative influence on pollinator richness, while the proportions of agriculture and forest landscape positively affected the pollinator community.

Interaction fidelity is less common than expected in plant-pollinator communities

Pairs of plants and pollinators species sometimes consistently interact throughout time and across space. Such consistency can be interpreted as a sign of interaction fidelity, that is a consistent interaction between two species when they co-occur in the same place. But how common interaction fidelity is and what determines interaction fidelity in plant-pollinator communities remain open questions. We aim to assess how frequent is interaction fidelity between plants and their pollinators and what drives interaction fidelity across plant-pollinator communities. Using a dataset of 141 networks around the world, we quantify whether the interaction between pairs of plant and pollinator species happens more ('interaction fidelity') or less ('interaction avoidance') often than expected by chance given the structure of the networks in which they co-occur. We also explore the relationship between interaction fidelity and species' degree (i.e. number of interactions), and the taxonomy of the species involved in the interaction. Our findings reveal that most plant-pollinator interactions do not differ from random expectations, in other words show neither fidelity nor avoidance. Out of the total 44,814 co-occurring species pairs we found 7,877 unique pair interactions (18%). Only 551 (7%) of the 7,877 plant-pollinator interactions did show significant interaction fidelity, meaning that these pairs interact in a consistent and non-random way across networks. We also find that 39 (0.09%) out of 44,814 plant-pollinator pairs showed significant interaction avoidance. Our results suggest that interactions involving specialist species have a high probability to show interaction fidelity and a low probability of interaction avoidance. In addition, we find that particular associations between plant and insect orders, as for example interactions between Hymenoptera and Fabales, showed high fidelity and low avoidance. Although niche and neutral processes simultaneously influence patterns of interaction in ecological communities, our findings suggest that it is rather neutral processes that are shaping the patterns of interactions in plant-pollinator networks.

The variable effects of global change on insect mutualisms

Insect mutualisms are essential for reproduction of many plants, protection of plants and other insects, and provisioning of nutrients for insects. Disruption of these mutualisms by global change can have important implications for ecosystem processes. Here, we assess the general effects of global change on insect mutualisms, including the possible impacts on mutualistic networks. We find that the effects of global change on mutualisms are extremely variable, making broad patterns difficult to detect. We require studies focusing on changes in cost-benefit ratios, effects of partner dependency, and degree of specialization to further understand how global change will influence insect mutualism dynamics. We propose that rapid coevolution is one avenue by which mutualists can ameliorate the effects of global change.

Inferring species interactions from ecological survey data: A mechanistic approach to predict quantitative food webs of seed feeding by carabid beetles

Ecological networks are valuable for ecosystem analysis but their use is often limited by a lack of data because many types of ecological interaction, for example, predation, are short-lived and difficult to observe or detect. While there are different methods for inferring the presence of interactions, they have rarely been used to predict the interaction strengths that are required to construct weighted, or quantitative, ecological networks.Here, we develop a trait-based approach suitable for inferring weighted networks, that is, with varying interaction strengths. We developed the method for seed-feeding carabid ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) although the principles can be applied to other species and types of interaction.Using existing literature data from experimental seed-feeding trials, we predicted a per-individual interaction cost index based on carabid and seed size. This was scaled up to the population level to create inferred weighted networks using the abundance of carabids and seeds from empirical samples and energetic intake rates of carabids from the literature. From these weighted networks, we also derived a novel measure of expected predation pressure per seed type per network.This method was applied to existing ecological survey data from 255 arable fields with carabid data from pitfall traps and plant seeds from seed rain traps. Analysis of these inferred networks led to testable hypotheses about how network structure and predation pressure varied among fields.Inferred networks are valuable because (a) they provide null models for the structuring of food webs to test against empirical species interaction data, for example, DNA analysis of carabid gut regurgitates and (b) they allow weighted networks to be constructed whenever we can estimate interactions between species and have ecological census data available. This permits ecological network analysis even at times and in places when interactions were not directly assessed.

Changes in plant-herbivore network structure and robustness along land-use intensity gradients in grasslands and forests

Land-use intensification poses major threats to biodiversity, such as to insect herbivore communities. The stability of these communities depends on interactions linking herbivores and host plants. How interaction network structure begets robustness, and thus stability, in different ecosystems and how network structure and robustness are altered along land-use intensity gradients are unclear. We analyzed plant-herbivore networks based on literature-derived interactions and long-term sampling from 289 grasslands and forests in three regions of Germany. Network size and nestedness were the most important determinants of network robustness in both ecosystems. Along land-use intensity gradients, networks in moderately grazed grasslands were more robust than in those managed by frequent mowing or fertilization. In forests, changes of network robustness along land-use intensity gradients relied on changes in plant species richness. Our results expand our knowledge of the stability of plant-herbivore networks and indicate options for management aimed at stabilizing herbivore communities.

Pathways for Novel Epidemiology: Plant-Pollinator-Pathogen Networks and Global Change

Multiple global change pressures, and their interplay, cause plant-pollinator extinctions and modify species assemblages and interactions. This may alter the risks of pathogen host shifts, intra- or interspecific pathogen spread, and emergence of novel population or community epidemics. Flowers are hubs for pathogen transmission. Consequently, the structure of plant-pollinator interaction networks may be pivotal in pathogen host shifts and modulating disease dynamics. Traits of plants, pollinators, and pathogens may also govern the interspecific spread of pathogens. Pathogen spillover-spillback between managed and wild pollinators risks driving the evolution of virulence and community epidemics. Understanding this interplay between host-pathogen dynamics and global change will be crucial to predicting impacts on pollinators and pollination underpinning ecosystems and human wellbeing.

Relative effects of anthropogenic pressures, climate, and sampling design on the structure of pollination networks at the global scale

Pollinators provide crucial ecosystem services that underpin to wild plant reproduction and yields of insect-pollinated crops. Understanding the relative impacts of anthropogenic pressures and climate on the structure of plant-pollinator interaction networks is vital considering ongoing global change and pollinator decline. Our ability to predict the consequences of global change for pollinator assemblages worldwide requires global syntheses, but these analytical approaches may be hindered by variable methods among studies that either invalidate comparisons or mask biological phenomena. Here we conducted a synthetic analysis that assesses the relative impact of anthropogenic pressures and climatic variability, and accounts for heterogeneity in sampling methodology to reveal network responses at the global scale. We analyzed an extensive dataset, comprising 295 networks over 123 locations all over the world, and reporting over 50,000 interactions between flowering plant species and their insect visitors. Our study revealed that anthropogenic pressures correlate with an increase in generalism in pollination networks while pollinator richness and taxonomic composition are more related to climatic variables with an increase in dipteran pollinator richness associated with cooler temperatures. The contrasting response of species richness and generalism of the plant-pollinator networks stresses the importance of considering interaction network structure alongside diversity in ecological monitoring. In addition, differences in sampling design explained more variation than anthropogenic pressures or climate on both pollination networks richness and generalism, highlighting the crucial need to report and incorporate sampling design in macroecological comparative studies of pollination networks. As a whole, our study reveals a potential human impact on pollination networks at a global scale. However, further research is needed to evaluate potential consequences of loss of specialist species and their unique ecological interactions and evolutionary pathways on the ecosystem pollination function at a global scale.

Contribution of Extensive Farming Practices to the Supply of Floral Resources for Pollinators

Simple Summary

One of the causes of pollinator decline is the decreased availability of flower resources, that constitute their nutritional requirements. In particular, the intensification of agricultural practices has led to a loss of flower resources. For many years, as part of the Common Agricultural Policy and the efforts to preserve biodiversity, several Agri-Environmental Schemes (AESs) and extensive farming practices have been promoted in Europe. To assess the relative contribution of extensive farming practices such as hedgerows, organic crops and extensive grasslands, we compared pairs of agricultural landscapes in Belgium. We recorded the densities of the insect-pollinated plant species per biotope and per month, the abundance and diversity of the main visiting insects. In April, hedgerows and forest edges constituted the main nectar resources. In May, most of the nectar resources were produced by grasslands and mass-flowering crops. In June, extensive grasslands and organic crops contributed to nectar resources, contrarily to intensive agricultural elements. Extensive and diverse agricultural practices should therefore be encouraged to provide less fluctuating nectar resources on a landscape scale.

Abstract

Intensification of agricultural practices leads to a loss of floral resources and drives pollinator decline. Extensive agricultural practices are encouraged in Europe and contribute to the preservation of biodiversity. We compared three agricultural landscapes without extensive farming practices with three adjacent landscapes containing organic crops and extensively managed grasslands in Belgium. Nectar resource availability and plant–pollinator interactions were monitored from April to June. Flower density per plant species and plant–pollinator interactions were recorded in different landscape elements. In April, the main nectar resources were provided by linear elements such as hedgerows and forest edges. Nectar production peaked in May, driven by intensive grasslands and mass-flowering crops. Occurrence of extensive grasslands and organic crops significantly alleviated the nectar resource gap observed in June. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining landscape heterogeneity for continuous flower resources and highlight the specific role of extensive grasslands and organic crops in June.

Landscape simplification shapes pathogen prevalence in plant-pollinator networks

Species interaction networks, which play an important role in determining pathogen transmission and spread in ecological communities, can shift in response to agricultural landscape simplification. However, we know surprisingly little about how landscape simplification-driven changes in network structure impact epidemiological patterns. Here, we combine mathematical modelling and data from eleven bipartite plant-pollinator networks observed along a landscape simplification gradient to elucidate how changes in network structure shape disease dynamics. Our empirical data show that landscape simplification reduces pathogen prevalence in bee communities via increased diet breadth of the dominant species. Furthermore, our empirical data and theoretical model indicate that increased connectance reduces the likelihood of a disease outbreak and decreases variance in prevalence among bee species in the community, resulting in a dilution effect. Because infectious diseases are implicated in pollinator declines worldwide, a better understanding of how land use change impacts species interactions is therefore critical for conserving pollinator health.

Effects of future agricultural change scenarios on beneficial insects

Insects provide vital ecosystem services to agricultural systems in the form of pollination and natural pest control. However, there are currently widespread declines in the beneficial insects which deliver these services (i.e. pollinators and 'natural enemies' such as predators and parasitoids). Two key drivers of these declines have been the expansion of agricultural land and intensification of agricultural production. With an increasing human population requiring additional sources of food, further changes in agricultural land use appear inevitable. Identifying likely trajectories of change and predicting their impacts on beneficial insects provides a scientific basis for making informed decisions on the policies and practices of sustainable agriculture. We created spatially explicit, exploratory scenarios of potential changes in the extent and intensity of agricultural land use across Great Britain (GB). Scenarios covered 52 possible combinations of change in agricultural land cover (i.e. agricultural expansion or grassland restoration) and intensity (i.e. crop type and diversity). We then used these scenarios to predict impacts on beneficial insect species richness and several metrics of functional diversity at a 10km (hectad) resolution. Predictions were based on species distribution models derived from biological records, comprising data on 116 bee species (pollinators) and 81 predatory beetle species (natural enemies). We identified a wide range of possible consequences for beneficial insect species richness and functional diversity as result of future changes in agricultural extent and intensity. Current policies aimed at restoring semi-natural grassland should result in increases in the richness and functional diversity of both pollinators and natural enemies, even if agricultural practices remain intensive on cropped land (i.e. land-sparing). In contrast, any expansion of arable land is likely to be accompanied by widespread declines in richness of beneficial insects, even if cropping practices become less intensive (i.e. land-sharing), although effects of functional diversity are more mixed.

The geographical variation of network structure is scale dependent: understanding the biotic specialization of host-parasitoid networks

Research on the structure of ecological networks suggests that a number of universal patterns exist. Historically, biotic specialization has been thought to increase towards the Equator. Yet, recent studies have challenged this view showing non-conclusive results. Most studies analysing the geographical variation in biotic specialization focus, however, only on the local scale. Little is known about how the geographical variation of network structure depends on the spatial scale of observation (i.e., from local to regional spatial scales). This should be remedied, as network structure changes as the spatial scale of observation changes, and the magnitude and shape of these changes can elucidate the mechanisms behind the geographical variation in biotic specialization. Here we analyse four facets of biotic specialization in host-parasitoid networks along gradients of climatic constancy, classifying the networks according to their spatial extension (local or regional). Namely, we analyse network connectance, consumer diet overlap, consumer diet breadth, and resource vulnerability at both local and regional scales along the gradients of both current climatic constancy and historical climatic change. While at the regional scale none of the climatic variables are associated to biotic specialization, at the local scale, network connectance, consumer diet overlap, and resource vulnerability decrease with current climatic constancy, whereas consumer generalism increases (i.e., broader diet breadths in tropical areas). Similar patterns are observed along the gradient of historical climatic change. We provide an explanation based on different beta-diversity for consumers and resources across the geographical gradients. Our results show that the geographical gradient of biotic specialization is not universal. It depends on both the facet of biotic specialization and the spatial scale of observation.