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Evans MEK, Dey SMN, Heilman KA, Tipton JR, DeRose RJ, Klesse S, Schultz EL, Shaw JD. Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2315700121. [PMID: 38830099 PMCID: PMC11181036 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2315700121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sharmila M. N. Dey
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA02138
| | - Kelly A. Heilman
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ85721
| | - John R. Tipton
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM87545
| | - R. Justin DeRose
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT84322
| | - Stefan Klesse
- Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research WSL, BirmensdorfCH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Emily L. Schultz
- Department of Biology, Colorado Mountain College, Breckenridge, CO80424
| | - John D. Shaw
- Riverdale Forestry Sciences Lab, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Riverdale, UT84405
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2
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Jeliazkov A, Chase JM. When Do Traits Tell More Than Species about a Metacommunity? A Synthesis across Ecosystems and Scales. Am Nat 2024; 203:E1-E18. [PMID: 38207141 DOI: 10.1086/727471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2024]
Abstract
AbstractLinking species traits with the variation in species assemblages across habitats has often proved useful for developing a more mechanistic understanding of species distributions in metacommunities. However, summarizing the rich tapestry of a species in all of its nuance with a few key ecological traits can also lead to an abstraction that provides less predictability than when using taxonomy alone. As a further complication, taxonomic and functional diversities can be inequitably compared, either by integrating taxonomic-level information into the calculation of how functional aspects of communities vary or by detecting spurious trait-environment relationships. To remedy this, we here synthesize analyses of 80 datasets on different taxa, ecosystems, and spatial scales that include information on abundance or presence/absence of species across sites with variable environmental conditions and the species' traits. By developing analyses that treat functional and taxonomic diversity equitably, we ask when functional diversity helps to explain metacommunity structure. We found that patterns of functional diversity explained metacommunity structure and response to environmental variation in only 25% of the datasets using a multitrait approach but up to 59% using a single-trait approach. Nevertheless, an average of only 19% (interquartile range = 0%-29%) of the traits showed a significant signal across environmental gradients. Species-level traits, as typically collected and analyzed through functional diversity patterns, often do not bring predictive advantages over what the taxonomic information already holds. While our assessment of a limited advantage of using traits to explain variation in species assemblages was largely true across ecosystems, traits played a more useful role in explaining variation when many traits were used and when trait constructs were more related to species' status, life history, and mobility. We propose future research directions to make trait-based approaches and data more helpful for inference in metacommunity ecology.
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3
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Charre‐Medellín JF, Ferrer‐Ferrando D, Monterrubio‐Rico TC, Fernández‐López J, Acevedo P. Using species distribution modeling to generate relative abundance information in socio-politically unstable territories: Conservation of Felidae in the central-western region of Mexico. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10534. [PMID: 37727774 PMCID: PMC10505758 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10534] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2023] [Revised: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023] Open
Abstract
The distribution range and population abundance of species provide fundamental information on the species-habitat relationship required for management and conservation. Abundance inherently provides more information about the ecology of species than do occurrence data. However, information on abundance is scarce for most species, mainly at large spatial scales. The objective of this work was, therefore, to provide information regarding the population status of six wild felids inhabiting territories in Mexico that are inaccessible or politically unstable. This was done using species distribution models derived from occurrence data. We used distribution data at a continental scale for the wild felids inhabiting Mexico: jaguar (Panthera onca), bobcat (Lynx rufus), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), cougar (Puma concolor), margay (Leopardus wiedii), and jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) to predict environmental suitability (estimated by both Maxent and the distance to niche centroid, DNC). Suitability was then examined by relating to a capture rate-based index, in a well-monitored area in central western Mexico in order to assess their performance as proxies of relative abundance. Our results indicate that the environmental suitability patterns predicted by both algorithms were comparable. However, the strength of the relationship between the suitability and relative abundance of local populations differed across species and between algorithms, with the bobcat and DNC, respectively, having the best fit, although the relationship was not consistent in all the models. This paper presents the potential of implementing species distribution models in order to predict the relative abundance of wild felids in Mexico and offers guidance for the proper interpretation of the relationship between suitability and population abundance. The results obtained provide a robust information base on which to outline specific conservation actions and on which to examine the potential status of endangered species inhabiting remote or politically unstable territories in which on-field monitoring programs are not feasible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan F. Charre‐Medellín
- National School of Higher StudiesUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMoreliaMexico
- Laboratory of Priority Terrestrial Vertebrates, Faculty of BiologyUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de HidalgoMoreliaMexico
| | - David Ferrer‐Ferrando
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC), CSIC‐UCLM‐JCCMCiudad RealSpain
| | - Tiberio C. Monterrubio‐Rico
- Laboratory of Priority Terrestrial Vertebrates, Faculty of BiologyUniversidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de HidalgoMoreliaMexico
| | | | - Pelayo Acevedo
- Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC), CSIC‐UCLM‐JCCMCiudad RealSpain
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4
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Vargas G. G, Kunert N, Hammond WM, Berry ZC, Werden LK, Smith‐Martin CM, Wolfe BT, Toro L, Mondragón‐Botero A, Pinto‐Ledezma JN, Schwartz NB, Uriarte M, Sack L, Anderson‐Teixeira KJ, Powers JS. Leaf habit affects the distribution of drought sensitivity but not water transport efficiency in the tropics. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:2637-2650. [PMID: 36257904 PMCID: PMC9828425 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 09/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Considering the global intensification of aridity in tropical biomes due to climate change, we need to understand what shapes the distribution of drought sensitivity in tropical plants. We conducted a pantropical data synthesis representing 1117 species to test whether xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (KS ), water potential at leaf turgor loss (ΨTLP ) and water potential at 50% loss of KS (ΨP50 ) varied along climate gradients. The ΨTLP and ΨP50 increased with climatic moisture only for evergreen species, but KS did not. Species with high ΨTLP and ΨP50 values were associated with both dry and wet environments. However, drought-deciduous species showed high ΨTLP and ΨP50 values regardless of water availability, whereas evergreen species only in wet environments. All three traits showed a weak phylogenetic signal and a short half-life. These results suggest strong environmental controls on trait variance, which in turn is modulated by leaf habit along climatic moisture gradients in the tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- German Vargas G.
- Department of Plant and Microbial BiologyUniversity of MinnesotaSt. PaulMinnesotaUSA,School of Biological SciencesThe University of UtahSalt Lake CityUtahUSA
| | - Norbert Kunert
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA,Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama,Department of Integrative Biology and Biodiversity Research, Institute of BotanyUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences ViennaViennaAustria
| | - William M. Hammond
- Agronomy Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFloridaUSA
| | - Z. Carter Berry
- Department of BiologyWake Forest UniversityWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Leland K. Werden
- Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Chris M. Smith‐Martin
- Department of Ecology Evolution and Environmental BiologyColumbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Brett T. Wolfe
- School of Renewable Natural ResourcesLouisiana State University Agricultural CenterBaton RougeLouisianaUSA,Smithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
| | - Laura Toro
- Department of Plant and Microbial BiologyUniversity of MinnesotaSt. PaulMinnesotaUSA
| | | | - Jesús N. Pinto‐Ledezma
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and BehaviorUniversity of MinnesotaSt. PaulMinnesotaUSA
| | - Naomi B. Schwartz
- Department of GeographyUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - María Uriarte
- Department of Ecology Evolution and Environmental BiologyColumbia UniversityNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Lawren Sack
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of California Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
| | - Kristina J. Anderson‐Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology CenterSmithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology InstituteFront RoyalVirginiaUSA,Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Tropical Research InstitutePanamaRepublic of Panama
| | - Jennifer S. Powers
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and BehaviorUniversity of MinnesotaSt. PaulMinnesotaUSA
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5
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Morente‐López J, Kass JM, Lara‐Romero C, Serra‐Diaz JM, Soto‐Correa JC, Anderson RP, Iriondo JM. Linking ecological niche models and common garden experiments to predict phenotypic differentiation in stressful environments: Assessing the adaptive value of marginal populations in an alpine plant. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4143-4162. [PMID: 35359032 PMCID: PMC9325479 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Environmental variation within a species' range can create contrasting selective pressures, leading to divergent selection and novel adaptations. The conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas remains in debate and is closely related to the adaptive potential in changing environments. Strong selection caused by stressful conditions may generate novel adaptations, conferring these populations distinct evolutionary potential and high conservation value under climate change. On the other hand, environmentally marginal populations may be genetically depauperate, with little potential for new adaptations to emerge. Here, we explored the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) linked with common garden experiments to predict and test for genetically determined phenotypic differentiation related to contrasting environmental conditions. To do so, we built an ENM for the alpine plant Silene ciliata in central Spain and conducted common garden experiments, assessing flowering phenology changes and differences in leaf cell resistance to extreme temperatures. The suitability patterns and response curves of the ENM led to the predictions that: (1) the environmentally marginal populations experiencing less snowpack and higher minimum temperatures would have delayed flowering to avoid risks of late-spring frosts and (2) those with higher minimum temperatures and greater potential evapotranspiration would show enhanced cell resistance to high temperatures to deal with physiological stress related to desiccation and heat. The common garden experiments revealed the expected genetically based phenotypic differentiation in flowering phenology. In contrast, they did not show the expected differentiation for cell resistance, but these latter experiments had high variance and hence lower statistical power. The results highlight ENMs as useful tools to identify contrasting putative selective pressures across species ranges. Linking ENMs with common garden experiments provides a theoretically justified and practical way to study adaptive processes, including insights regarding the conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas under ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Morente‐López
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research GroupInstitute of Natural Products and Agrobiology, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPNA‐CSIC)San Cristóbal de La Laguna, TenerifeSpain
| | - Jamie M. Kass
- Department of BiologyCity College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate CenterCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Biodiversity and Biocomplexity UnitOkinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate UniversityKunigami‐gunOkinawaJapan
| | - Carlos Lara‐Romero
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
| | | | - José Carmen Soto‐Correa
- Facultad de Ciencias NaturalesUniversidad Autónoma de Querétaro (FCN‐UAQ)Santa Rosa Jáuregui, QuerétaroMexico
| | - Robert P. Anderson
- Department of BiologyCity College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate CenterCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy)American Museum of Natural HistoryNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - José M. Iriondo
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
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6
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Estarague A, Vasseur F, Sartori K, Bastias CC, Cornet D, Rouan L, Beurier G, Exposito-Alonso M, Herbette S, Bresson J, Vile D, Violle C. Into the range: a latitudinal gradient or a center-margins differentiation of ecological strategies in Arabidopsis thaliana? ANNALS OF BOTANY 2022; 129:343-356. [PMID: 34918027 PMCID: PMC8835660 DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcab149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2021] [Revised: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Determining within-species large-scale variation in phenotypic traits is central to elucidate the drivers of species' ranges. Intraspecific comparisons offer the opportunity to understand how trade-offs and biogeographical history constrain adaptation to contrasted environmental conditions. Here we test whether functional traits, ecological strategies from the CSR scheme and phenotypic plasticity in response to abiotic stress vary along a latitudinal or a center- margins gradient within the native range of Arabidopsis thaliana. METHODS We experimentally examined the phenotypic outcomes of plant adaptation at the center and margins of its geographic range using 30 accessions from southern, central and northern Europe. We characterized the variation of traits related to stress tolerance, resource use, colonization ability, CSR strategy scores, survival and fecundity in response to high temperature (34 °C) or frost (- 6 °C), combined with a water deficit treatment. KEY RESULTS We found evidence for both a latitudinal and a center-margins differentiation for the traits under scrutiny. Age at maturity, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content varied along a latitudinal gradient. Northern accessions presented a greater survival to stress than central and southern accessions. Leaf area, C-scores, R-scores and fruit number followed a center-margins differentiation. Central accessions displayed a higher phenotypic plasticity than northern and southern accessions for most studied traits. CONCLUSIONS Traits related to an acquisitive/conservative resource-use trade-off followed a latitudinal gradient. Traits associated with a competition/colonization trade-off differentiated along the historic colonization of the distribution range and then followed a center-margins differentiation. Our findings pinpoint the need to consider the joint effect of evolutionary history and environmental factors when examining phenotypic variation across the distribution range of a species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurélien Estarague
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
- Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environnementaux (LEPSE), INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, UMR759, F-34060, Montpellier, France
| | - François Vasseur
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Kevin Sartori
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
- Department of Plant Biology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Denis Cornet
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Lauriane Rouan
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Gregory Beurier
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Moises Exposito-Alonso
- Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | | | - Justine Bresson
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Denis Vile
- Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environnementaux (LEPSE), INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, UMR759, F-34060, Montpellier, France
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
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7
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Koide D, Yoshikawa T, Ishihama F, Kadoya T. Complex range shifts among forest functional types under the contemporary warming. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:1477-1492. [PMID: 34879441 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The direction and magnitude of species distribution shifts tend to differ among species and functional types (FTs). Quantifying functional trait variation and species interactions will improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms that govern ecosystem dynamics and their responses to climate change. Here, we analyzed differences in the juvenile and adult temperature ranges of Japanese tree species at the mean, colder edge, and warmer edge of their distributions to reveal how functional traits affect interactions between different FT groups (e.g., deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved trees), using linear models and permutation tests. Overall, juveniles preferred cooler sites, but with high variation. The variation among species was partly explained by the difference in seed mass where species with lighter seeds tend to colonize colder sites. On the other hand, the distribution range of FTs showed complex behavior at the ecotones of different FTs. Specifically, in three of eight ecotones, nonparallel range shifts between FTs were detected, which includes cold shifting in deciduous broad-leaved FT where a warm shift by subalpine FT happened, and cold shifting in subtropical FT where warm shifts by either the deciduous broad-leaved or the evergreen broad-leaved FTs happened. Our results suggest that past warming has caused a general cold shift at species level, whereas different mechanisms, such as light seeds disperse farther in distribution's colder edge and heavy seeds (e.g., evergreen broad-leaved) compete better in warmer edge, create nonparallel responses of FT distribution ranges leading to the observed homogenization at several ecotones among FTs. These complex range shifts at FT level have crucial implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dai Koide
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Tetsuro Yoshikawa
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Fumiko Ishihama
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Taku Kadoya
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
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8
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Beissinger SR, Riddell EA. Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts? ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS 2021. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-012021-092849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven R. Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
| | - Eric A. Riddell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50050, USA
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9
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Schultz EL, Hülsmann L, Pillet MD, Hartig F, Breshears DD, Record S, Shaw JD, DeRose RJ, Zuidema PA, Evans MEK. Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species' distributions. Ecol Lett 2021; 25:38-51. [PMID: 34708503 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2021] [Revised: 08/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions-through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks-are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily L Schultz
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Lisa Hülsmann
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - Michiel D Pillet
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Florian Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany
| | - David D Breshears
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Sydne Record
- Department of Biology, Bryn Mawr College, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - John D Shaw
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Ogden, Utah, USA
| | - R Justin DeRose
- Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Pieter A Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Margaret E K Evans
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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10
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Gaüzère P, Devictor V. Mismatches between birds' spatial and temporal dynamics reflect their delayed response to global changes. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.08289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Gaüzère
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine Grenoble France
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11
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Ni M, Vellend M. Space-for-time inferences about range-edge dynamics of tree species can be influenced by sampling biases. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:2102-2112. [PMID: 33459442 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Accepted: 12/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Differences between the distributions of tree saplings and adults in geographic or niche space have been used to infer climate change effects on tree range dynamics. Previous studies have reported narrower latitudinal or climatic niche ranges of juvenile trees compared to adults, concluding that tree ranges are contracting, contradicting climate-based predictions. However, more comprehensive sampling of adult trees than juvenile trees in most regional forest inventories could potentially bias ontogenetic comparisons. Here we first report spatial simulations showing that reduced sampling intensity can result in underestimates of range and niche limits, but that resampling the same number of individuals of different life stages can eliminate this bias. We then reanalyzed the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis data, comparing the range and niche limits between adult trees and saplings of 92 tree species, both using the original data and two resampling procedures. Resampling aimed to reduce sampling biases by controlling for either sampling area or the number of individuals sampled. Overall, these resampling procedures had a major influence on the estimation of range limits, most often by reducing, eliminating, or even reversing the tendency in the original analyses for saplings to have broader distributions than adult trees. These results indicate that previous conclusions that the distributions of juvenile trees were contracting in response to climate change were potentially artifacts of sampling in the underlying data. More generally, sampling effects involved in the estimation of geographic ranges and environmental niche widths need to be taken into account in studies comparing different life stages, and also likely in other types of distribution comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Ni
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
| | - Mark Vellend
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
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12
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McNellis BE, Smith AMS, Hudak AT, Strand EK. Tree mortality in western U.S. forests forecasted using forest inventory and Random Forest classification. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Brandon E. McNellis
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho83844USA
| | - Alistair M. S. Smith
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho83844USA
| | - Andrew T. Hudak
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Forestry Sciences Laboratory Moscow Idaho83843USA
| | - Eva K. Strand
- Department of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho83844USA
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Carscadden KA, Emery NC, Arnillas CA, Cadotte MW, Afkhami ME, Gravel D, Livingstone SW, Wiens JJ. Niche Breadth: Causes and Consequences for Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation. QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BIOLOGY 2020. [DOI: 10.1086/710388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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14
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The Net Effect of Functional Traits on Fitness. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 35:1037-1047. [PMID: 32807503 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 07/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Generalizing the effect of traits on performance across species may be achievable if traits explain variation in population fitness. However, testing relationships between traits and vital rates to infer effects on fitness can be misleading. Demographic trade-offs can generate variation in vital rates that yield equal population growth rates, thereby obscuring the net effect of traits on fitness. To address this problem, we describe a diversity of approaches to quantify intrinsic growth rates of plant populations, including experiments beyond range boundaries, density-dependent population models built from long-term demographic data, theoretical models, and methods that leverage widely available monitoring data. Linking plant traits directly to intrinsic growth rates is a fundamental step toward rigorous predictions of population dynamics and community assembly.
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15
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Buderman FE, Devries JH, Koons DN. Changes in climate and land use interact to create an ecological trap in a migratory species. J Anim Ecol 2020; 89:1961-1977. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2019] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Frances E. Buderman
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
| | - Jim H. Devries
- Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl ResearchDucks Unlimited Canada Stonewall Manitoba Canada
| | - David N. Koons
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA
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