Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations

Climatic variation allows montane willows to escape an adaptive trade-off

Adaptive responses to climate change, based on heritable variation in stress tolerance, may be important for plant population persistence. It is unclear which populations will mount the strongest future adaptive responses. It may be fruitful to identify populations that have escaped trade-offs among performance traits, which can hinder adaptation. Barring strong genetic constraints, the extent of trade-offs may depend on spatial relationships among climate variables shaping different traits. Here, we test for climate-driven ecotypic variation and trade-offs among drought and freezing sensitivity, and growth, for Lemmon's willow (Salix lemmonii) in a common garden study of 90 genotypes from 38 sites in the Sierra Nevada, USA. Salix lemmonii exhibits ecotypic variation in leaf turgor loss point, a measure of drought sensitivity, from -0.95 to -0.74 MPa along a gradient of spring snowpack. We also find variation in spring freezing sensitivity with minimum May temperature. However, we find no trade-off, as the climatic gradients shaping these traits are spatially uncorrelated in our study region, despite being negatively correlated across the Sierra Nevada. Species may escape adaptive trade-offs in geographic regions where climate variables are spatially decoupled. These regions may represent valuable reservoirs of heritable adaptive phenotypic variation.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Degeneration of foundation cushion species induced by ecological constraints can cause massive changes in alpine plant communities

Foundational cushion plants can re-organize community structures and sustain a prominent proportion of alpine biodiversity, but they are sensitive to climate change. The loss of cushion species can have broad consequences for associated biota. The potential plant community changes with the population dynamics of cushion plants remain, however, unclear. Using eight plant communities along a climatic and community successional gradient, we assessed cushion population dynamics, the underlying ecological constraints and hence associated plant community changes in alpine communities dominated by the foundational cushion plant Arenaria polytrichoides. The population dynamics of Arenaria are attributed to ecological constraints at a series of life history stages. Reproductive functions are constrained by increasing associated beneficiary plants; subsequent seedling establishment is constrained by temperature, water and light availability, extreme climate events, and interspecific competition; strong competitive exclusion may accelerate mortality and degeneration of cushion populations. Along with cushion dynamics, species composition, abundance and community structure gradually change. Once cushion plants completely degenerate, previously cushion-dominated communities shift to relatively stable communities that are overwhelmingly dominated by sedges. Climate warming may accelerate the degeneration process of A. polytrichoides. Degeneration of this foundational cushion plant will possibly induce massive changes in alpine plant communities and hence ecosystem functions in alpine ecosystems. The assessment of the population dynamics of foundation species is critical for an effective conservation of alpine biodiversity.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

The evolution of plasticity at geographic range edges

Phenotypic plasticity enables rapid responses to environmental change, and could facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. What drives the evolution of plasticity at range edges, and the capacity of range-edge individuals to be plastic, remain unclear. Here, we propose that accurately predicting when plasticity itself evolves or mediates adaptive evolution at expanding range edges requires integrating knowledge on the demography and evolution of edge populations. Our synthesis shows that: (i) the demography of edge populations can amplify or attenuate responses to selection for plasticity through diverse pathways, and (ii) demographic effects on plasticity are modified by the stability of range edges. Our spatially explicit synthesis for plasticity has the potential to improve predictions for range shifts with climate change.

Compensatory responses of vital rates attenuate impacts of competition on population growth and promote coexistence

Competition is among the most important factors regulating plant population and community dynamics, but we know little about how different vital rates respond to competition and jointly determine population growth and species coexistence. We conducted a field experiment and parameterised integral projection models to model the population growth of 14 herbaceous plant species in the absence and presence of neighbours across an elevation gradient (284 interspecific pairs). We found that suppressed individual growth and seedling establishment contributed the most to competition-induced declines in population growth, although vital rate contributions varied greatly between species and with elevation. In contrast, size-specific survival and flowering probability and seed production were frequently enhanced under competition. These compensatory vital rate responses were nearly ubiquitous (occurred in 92% of species pairs) and significantly reduced niche overlap and stabilised coexistence. Our study highlights the importance of demographic processes for regulating population and community dynamics, which has often been neglected by classic coexistence theories.

The role of demographic compensation in stabilising marginal tree populations in North America

Demographic compensation-the opposing responses of vital rates along environmental gradients-potentially delays anticipated species' range contraction under climate change, but no consensus exists on its actual contribution. We calculated population growth rate (λ) and demographic compensation across the distributional ranges of 81 North American tree species and examined their responses to simulated warming and tree competition. We found that 43% of species showed stable population size at both northern and southern edges. Demographic compensation was detected in 25 species, yet 15 of them still showed a potential retraction from southern edges, indicating that compensation alone cannot maintain range stability. Simulated climatic warming caused larger decreases in λ for most species and weakened the effectiveness of demographic compensation in stabilising ranges. These findings suggest that climate stress may surpass the limited capacity of demographic compensation and pose a threat to the viability of North American tree populations.