Developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance: Ontogenetic variation, persistence, and future directions

Pollution offsets the rapid evolution of increased heat tolerance in a natural population

Despite the increasing evidence for rapid thermal evolution in natural populations, evolutionary rescue under global warming may be constrained by the presence of other stressors. Highly relevant in our polluted planet, is the largely ignored evolutionary trade-off between heat tolerance and tolerance to pollutants. By using two subpopulations (separated 40 years in time) from a resurrected natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna that experienced a threefold increase in heat wave frequency during this period, we tested whether rapid evolution of heat tolerance resulted in reduced tolerance to the widespread metal zinc and whether this would affect heat tolerance upon exposure to the pollutant. Our results revealed rapid evolution of increased heat tolerance in the recent subpopulation. Notably, the sensitivity to the metal tended to be stronger (reduction in net energy budget) or was only present (reductions in heat tolerance and in sugar content) in the recent subpopulation. As a result, the rapidly evolved higher heat tolerance of the recent subpopulation was fully offset when exposed to zinc. Our results highlight that the many reports of evolutionary rescue to global change stressors may give a too optimistic view as our warming planet is polluted by metals and other pollutants.

Integrated organismal responses induced by projected levels of CO2 and temperature exposures in the early life stages of lake sturgeon

Atmospheric CO2 and temperature are rising concurrently, and may have profound impacts on the transcriptional, physiological and behavioural responses of aquatic organisms. Further, spring snowmelt may cause transient increases of pCO2 in many freshwater systems. We examined the behavioural, physiological and transcriptomic responses of an ancient fish, the lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) to projected levels of warming and pCO2 during its most vulnerable period of life, the first year. Specifically, larval fish were raised in either low (16°C) or high (22°C) temperature, and/or low (1000 μatm) or high (2500 μatm) pCO2 in a crossed experimental design over approximately 8 months. Following overwintering, lake sturgeon were exposed to a transient increase in pCO2 of 10,000 μatm, simulating a spring melt based on data in freshwater systems. Transcriptional analyses revealed potential connections to otolith formation and reduced growth in fish exposed to high pCO2 and temperature in combination. Network analyses of differential gene expression revealed different biological processes among the different treatments on the edges of transcriptional networks. Na+/K+-ATPase activity increased in fish not exposed to elevated pCO2 during development, and mRNA abundance of the β subunit was most strongly predictive of enzyme activity. Behavioural assays revealed a decrease in total activity following an acute CO2 exposure. These results demonstrate compensatory and compounding mechanisms of pCO2 and warming dependent on developmental conditions in lake sturgeon. Conserved elements of the cellular stress response across all organisms provide key information for how other freshwater organisms may respond to future climate change.

Effects of warming at embryonic and larval stages on tadpole fitness in high-altitude Rana kukunoris

Global warming may affect the early developmental stages of high-altitude amphibians, thereby influencing their later fitness. Yet, this has been largely unexplored. To investigate whether and how the temperatures experienced by embryonic and larval stages affect their fitness at later developmental stages, we designed two experiments in which the embryos and larvae were treated with three temperatures (24, 18 and 12 °C), respectively. Then, the life history traits of the tadpoles during the metamorphotic climax in all treatments were evaluated, including growth rate, survival rate, morphology, thermal physiology, swimming performance, standard metabolic rate (SMR), oxidative and antioxidative system, and metabolic enzyme activities. The results revealed that elevated temperature accelerated metamorphosis but decreased body size at metamorphosis. Additionally, warming during the embryonic and larval stages decreased the thermal tolerance range and induced increased oxidative stress. Furthermore, high embryonic temperature significantly decreased the hatching success, but had no significant effect on swimming performance and SMR. Warming during larval periods was harmful to the survival and swimming performance of tadpoles. The effect size analysis revealed that the negative impacts of embryonic temperature on certain physiological traits, such as growth and development, survival and swimming performance, were more pronounced than those of larval temperature. Our results highlight the necessity for particular attention to be paid to the early stages of amphibians, notably the embryonic stages when evaluating the impact of global warming on their survival.

Predicting organismal response to marine heatwaves using dynamic thermal tolerance landscape models

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause thermal stress in marine organisms, experienced as extreme 'pulses' against the gradual trend of anthropogenic warming. When thermal stress exceeds organismal capacity to maintain homeostasis, organism survival becomes time-limited and can result in mass mortality events. Current methods of detecting and categorizing MHWs rely on statistical analysis of historic climatology and do not consider biological effects as a basis of MHW severity. The re-emergence of ectotherm thermal tolerance landscape models provides a physiological framework for assessing the lethal effects of MHWs by accounting for both the magnitude and duration of extreme heat events. Here, we used a simulation approach to understand the effects of a suite of MHW profiles on organism survival probability across (1) three thermal tolerance adaptive strategies, (2) interannual temperature variation and (3) seasonal timing of MHWs. We identified survival isoclines across MHW magnitude and duration where acute (short duration-high magnitude) and chronic (long duration-low magnitude) events had equivalent lethal effects on marine organisms. While most research attention has focused on chronic MHW events, we show similar lethal effects can be experienced by more common but neglected acute marine heat spikes. Critically, a statistical definition of MHWs does not accurately categorize biological mortality. By letting organism responses define the extremeness of a MHW event, we can build a mechanistic understanding of MHW effects from a physiological basis. Organism responses can then be transferred across scales of ecological organization and better predict marine ecosystem shifts to MHWs.

Evidence of plasticity, but not evolutionary divergence, in the thermal limits of a highly successful urban butterfly

Despite the generally negative impact of urbanization on insect biodiversity, some insect species persist in urban habitats. Understanding the mechanisms underpinning the ability of insects to tolerate urban habitats is critical given the contribution of land-use change to the global insect decline. Compensatory mechanisms such as phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change in thermal physiological traits could allow urban populations to persist under the altered thermal regimes of urban habitats. It is important to understand the contributions of plasticity and evolution to trait change along urbanization gradients as the two mechanisms operate under different constraints and timescales. Here, we examine the plastic and evolutionary responses of heat and cold tolerance (critical thermal maximum [CTmax] and critical thermal minimum [CTmin]) to warming among populations of the cabbage white butterfly, Pieris rapae, from urban and non-urban (rural) habitats using a two-temperature common garden experiment. Although we expected populations experiencing urban warming to exhibit greater CTmax and diminished CTmin through plastic and evolutionary mechanisms, our study revealed evidence only for plasticity in the expected direction of both thermal tolerance traits. We found no evidence of evolutionary divergence in either heat or cold tolerance, despite each trait showing evolutionary potential. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance plasticity contributes to urban persistence in this system. However, as the magnitude of the plastic response was low and comparable to other insect species, other compensatory mechanisms likely further underpin this species' success in urban habitats.

Intraspecific variation in thermal performance curves for early development in Fundulus heteroclitus

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a framework for understanding the effects of temperature on ectotherm performance and fitness. TPCs are often used to test hypotheses regarding local adaptation to temperature or to develop predictions for how organisms will respond to climate warming. However, for aquatic organisms such as fishes, most TPCs have been estimated for adult life stages, and little is known about the shape of TPCs or the potential for thermal adaptation at sensitive embryonic life stages. To examine how latitudinal gradients shape TPCs at early life stages in fishes, we used two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus that have been shown to exhibit latitudinal variation along the thermal cline as adults. We exposed embryos from both northern and southern populations and their reciprocal crosses to eight different temperatures (15°C, 18°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C, and 36°C) until hatch and examined the effects of developmental temperature on embryonic and larval traits (shape of TPCs, heart rate, and body size). We found that the pure southern embryos had a right-shifted TPC (higher thermal optimum (Topt) for developmental rate, survival, and embryonic growth rate) whereas pure northern embryos had a vertically shifted TPC (higher maximum performance (Pmax) for developmental rate). Differences across larval traits and cross-type were also found, such that northern crosses hatched faster and hatched at a smaller size compared to the pure southern population. Overall, these observed differences in embryonic and larval traits are consistent with patterns of both local adaptation and countergradient variation.

Acclimation capacity to global warming of amphibians and freshwater fishes: Drivers, patterns, and data limitations

Amphibians and fishes play a central role in shaping the structure and function of freshwater environments. These organisms have a limited capacity to disperse across different habitats and the thermal buffer offered by freshwater systems is small. Understanding determinants and patterns of their physiological sensitivity across life history is, therefore, imperative to predicting the impacts of climate change in freshwater systems. Based on a systematic literature review including 345 experiments with 998 estimates on 96 amphibian (Anura/Caudata) and 93 freshwater fish species (Teleostei), we conducted a quantitative synthesis to explore phylogenetic, ontogenetic, and biogeographic (thermal adaptation) patterns in upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and thermal acclimation capacity (acclimation response ratio, ARR) as well as the influence of the methodology used to assess these thermal traits using a conditional inference tree analysis. We found globally consistent patterns in CTmax and ARR, with phylogeny (taxa/order), experimental methodology, climatic origin, and life stage as significant determinants of thermal traits. The analysis demonstrated that CTmax does not primarily depend on the climatic origin but on experimental acclimation temperature and duration, and life stage. Higher acclimation temperatures and longer acclimation times led to higher CTmax values, whereby Anuran larvae revealed a higher CTmax than older life stages. The ARR of freshwater fishes was more than twice that of amphibians. Differences in ARR between life stages were not significant. In addition to phylogenetic differences, we found that ARR also depended on acclimation duration, ramping rate, and adaptation to local temperature variability. However, the amount of data on early life stages is too small, methodologically inconsistent, and phylogenetically unbalanced to identify potential life cycle bottlenecks in thermal traits. We, therefore, propose methods to improve the robustness and comparability of CTmax/ARR data across species and life stages, which is crucial for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

When adaptation is slowed down: Genomic analysis of evolutionary stasis in thermal tolerance during biological invasion in a novel climate

Research conducted during the past two decades has demonstrated that biological invasions are excellent models of rapid evolution. Even so, characteristics of invasive populations such as a short time for recombination to assemble optimal combinations of alleles may occasionally limit adaptation to new environments. Here, we investigated such genetic constraints to adaptation in the invasive brown anole (Anolis sagrei)-a tropical ectotherm that was introduced to the southeastern United States, a region with a much colder climate than in its native Caribbean range. We examined thermal physiology for 30 invasive populations and tested for a climatic cline in cold tolerance. Also, we used genomics to identify mechanisms that may limit adaptation. We found no support for a climatic cline, indicating that thermal tolerance did not shift adaptively. Concomitantly, population genomic results were consistent with the occurrence of recombination cold spots that comprise more than half of the genome and maintain long-range associations among alleles in invasive populations. These genomic regions overlap with both candidate thermal tolerance loci that we identified using a standard genome-wide association test. Moreover, we found that recombination cold spots do not have a large contribution to population differentiation in the invasive range, contrary to observations in the native range. We suggest that limited recombination is constraining the contribution of large swaths of the genome to adaptation in invasive brown anoles. Our study provides an example of evolutionary stasis during invasion and highlights the possibility that reduced recombination occasionally slows down adaptation in invasive populations.

Sensitivity of amphibian embryos to timing and magnitude of present and future thermal extremes

Ongoing climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events. Unlike the gradual increase on average environmental temperatures, these short-term and unpredictable temperature extremes impact population dynamics of ectotherms through their effect on individual survival. While previous research has predominantly focused on the survival rate of terrestrial embryos under acute heat stress, less attention has been dedicated to the nonlethal effects of ecologically realistic timing and magnitude of temperature extremes on aquatic embryos. In this study, we investigated the influence of the timing and magnitude of current and projected temperature extremes on embryonic life history traits and hatchling behavior in the alpine newt, Ichthyosaura alpestris. Using a factorial experiment under controlled laboratory conditions, we exposed 3- or 10-day-old embryos to different regimes of extreme temperatures for 3 days. Our results show that exposure to different extreme temperature regimes led to a shortened embryonic development time and an increase in hatchling length, while not significantly affecting embryonic survival. The duration of development was sensitive to the timing of temperature extremes, as early exposure accelerated embryo development. Exposure to temperature extremes during embryonic development heightened the exploratory activity of hatched larvae. We conclude that the timing and magnitude of ecologically realistic temperature extremes during embryogenesis have nonlethal effects on life history and behavioral traits. This suggests that species' vulnerability to climate change might be determined by other ecophysiological traits beyond embryonic thermal tolerance in temperate pond-breeding amphibians.

Degrees of freedom: temperature's influence on developmental rate

Temperature exerts a fundamental influence across scales of biology, from the biophysical nature of molecules, to the sensitivity of cells, and the coordinated progression of development in embryos. Species-specific developmental rates and temperature-induced acceleration of development indicate that these sensing mechanisms are harnessed to influence developmental dynamics. Tracing how temperature sensitivity propagates through biological scales to influence the pace of development can therefore reveal how embryogenesis remains robust to environmental influences. Cellular protein homeostasis (proteostasis), and cellular metabolic rate are linked to both temperature-induced and species-specific developmental tempos in specific cell types, hinting toward generalized mechanisms of timing control. New methods to extract timing information from single-cell profiling experiments are driving further progress in understanding how mechanisms of temperature sensitivity can direct cell-autonomous responses, coordination across cell types, and evolutionary modifications of developmental timing.

The carryover effects of embryonic incubation temperature on subsequent growth and thermal tolerance in white sturgeon

Environmental variation experienced during early periods of development can lead to persistent phenotypic alteration, known as carryover effects. Such effects increase concern for threatened or endangered species such as the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus), particularly considering expected thermal changes due to climate change. We evaluated how temperature during embryonic development affects physiological parameters such as larval and early juvenile growth and thermal tolerance. Nechako River white sturgeon embryos were incubated at different environmental temperatures (Te) of 12 °C (the natural spawning temperature of this population), 15 °C (the hatchery incubation temperature), and 18 °C (representing potential increases in river temperatures given global climate change). After hatch, fish were reared at a common 15 °C for 80 days post-hatch (dph). Individuals from each temperature treatment were tested for thermal tolerance using the critical thermal maximum method (CTmax), euthanized, and measured. Fish were examined at regular intervals from 13 to 80 dph, which bridged the time from the start of exogenous feeding through the transition into early juveniles. We found carryover effects of high embryonic Te in the short term for both thermal tolerance and growth. Fish that developed at 18 °C had the lowest thermal tolerance during the start of exogenous feeding. However, differences in thermal tolerance were small for early juveniles and were unlikely to be ecologically relevant in the longer term. Fish that developed at 18 °C were smallest over the observation period, indicating a possible cost for survival from increasing environmental temperatures during embryonic development. This research represents a window into a critical period of development during which fish are particularly vulnerable to climatic variation, and shows that cooler temperatures (12 °C) during incubation are optimal for this population. The results can inform environmental managers on the best strategies to help conserve current white sturgeon populations across their range.

A prenatal acoustic signal of heat reduces a biomarker of chronic stress at adulthood across seasons

During development, phenotype can be adaptively modulated by environmental conditions, sometimes in the long-term. However, with weather variability increasing under climate change, the potential for maladaptive long-term responses to environmental variations may increase. In the arid-adapted zebra finch, parents emit "heat-calls" when experiencing heat during incubation, which adaptively affects offspring growth in the heat, and adult heat tolerance. This suggests that heat-call exposure may adjust individual phenotype to hot conditions, potentially compromising individual sensitivity to cool weather conditions. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated individual prenatal acoustic and postnatal thermal experiences during development, and sought to assess subsequent chronic responses to thermal fluctuations at adulthood. We thus measured heterophil to lymphocyte (H/L) ratios in adults, when held in outdoor aviaries during two summers and two winters. We found that birds exposed to heat-calls as embryos, had consistently lower H/L ratios than controls at adulthood, indicative of lower chronic stress, irrespective of the season. Nonetheless, in all birds, the H/L ratio did vary with short-term weather fluctuations (2, 5 or 7 days), increasing at more extreme (low and high) air temperatures. In addition, the H/L ratio was higher in males than females. Overall, while H/L ratio may reflect how individuals were being impacted by temperature, heat-call exposed individuals did not show a stronger chronic response in winter, and instead appeared more resilient to thermal variability than control individuals. Our findings therefore suggest that heat-call exposure did not compromise individual sensitivity to low temperatures at adulthood. Our study also reveals that prenatal sound can lead to long-term differences in individual physiology or quality/condition, as reflected by H/L ratios, which are consistent with previously-demonstrated reproductive fitness differences.

Dissipative scaling of development and aging in multicellular organisms

Evolution, self-replication and ontogenesis are highly dynamic, irreversible and self-organizing processes dissipating energy. While progress has been made to decipher the role of thermodynamics in cellular fission, it is not yet clear how entropic balances shape organism growth and aging. This paper derives a general dissipation theory for the life history of organisms. It implies a self-regulated energy dissipation facilitating exponential growth within a hierarchical and entropy lowering self-organization. The theory predicts ceilings in energy expenditures imposed by geometric constrains, which promote thermal optimality during development, and a dissipative scaling across organisms consistent with ecological scaling laws combining isometric and allometric terms. The theory also illustrates how growing organisms can tolerate damage through continuous extension and production of new dissipative structures low in entropy. However, when organisms reduce their rate of cell division and reach a steady adult state, they become thermodynamically unstable, increase internal entropy by accumulating damage, and age.

Genomics for monitoring and understanding species responses to global climate change

All life forms across the globe are experiencing drastic changes in environmental conditions as a result of global climate change. These environmental changes are happening rapidly, incur substantial socioeconomic costs, pose threats to biodiversity and diminish a species' potential to adapt to future environments. Understanding and monitoring how organisms respond to human-driven climate change is therefore a major priority for the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing environment. Recent developments in genomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic technologies are enabling unprecedented insights into the evolutionary processes and molecular bases of adaptation. This Review summarizes methods that apply and integrate omics tools to experimentally investigate, monitor and predict how species and communities in the wild cope with global climate change, which is by genetically adapting to new environmental conditions, through range shifts or through phenotypic plasticity. We identify advantages and limitations of each method and discuss future research avenues that would improve our understanding of species' evolutionary responses to global climate change, highlighting the need for holistic, multi-omics approaches to ecosystem monitoring during global climate change.

The embryonic thermal environment has positive but weak effects on thermal tolerance later in life in the aquatic invertebrate Gammarus chevreuxi

Recent evidence suggests that the adult phenotype is influenced by temperatures experienced in early life. However, our understanding of the extent to which the embryonic environment can modulate thermal tolerance later in life is limited, owing to the paucity of studies with appropriate experimental designs to test for this form of developmental plasticity. We investigated whether the thermal environment experienced during embryonic development affects thermal limits in later life. Embryos of the estuarine amphipod Gammarus chevreuxi were incubated until hatching to 15 °C, 20 °C and 25 °C, then reared under a common temperature. Using thermal ramping assays, we determined upper thermal limits in juveniles, four weeks post-hatch. Individuals exposed to higher temperatures during embryonic development displayed greater thermal tolerance as juveniles (acclimation response ratio ≈ 0.10-0.25 for upper lethal temperature). However, we suggest that the degree of developmental plasticity observed is limited, and will provide little benefit under future climate change scenarios.

CTmax in brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) embryos shows an acclimation response to developmental temperatures but is more variable than in later life stages

Critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) is widely used to measure upper thermal tolerance in fish but is rarely examined in embryos. Upper thermal limits generally depend on an individual's thermal history, which molds plasticity. We examined how thermal acclimation affects thermal tolerance of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) embryos using a novel method to assess CTmax in embryos incubated under three thermal regimes. Warm acclimation was associated with an increase in embryonic upper thermal tolerance. However, CTmax variability was markedly higher than is typical for juvenile or adult salmonids.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

Threshold shifts and developmental temperature impact trade-offs between tolerance and plasticity

Mounting evidence suggests that ectotherms are already living close to their upper physiological thermal limits. Phenotypic plasticity has been proposed to reduce the impact of climate change in the short-term providing time for adaptation, but the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis predicts organisms with higher tolerance have lower plasticity. Empirical evidence is mixed, which may be driven by methodological issues such as statistical artefacts, nonlinear reaction norms, threshold shifts or selection. Here, we examine whether threshold shifts (organisms with higher tolerance require stronger treatments to induce maximum plastic responses) influence tolerance-plasticity trade-offs in hardening capacity for desiccation tolerance and critical thermal maximum (CTMAX) across Drosophila species with varying distributions/sensitivity to desiccation/heat stress. We found evidence for threshold shifts in both traits; species with higher heat/desiccation tolerance required longer hardening treatments to induce maximum hardening responses. Species with higher heat tolerance also showed reductions in hardening capacity at higher developmental acclimation temperatures. Trade-off patterns differed depending on the hardening treatment used and the developmental temperature flies were exposed to. Based on these findings, studies that do not consider threshold shifts, or that estimate plasticity under a narrow set of environments, will have a limited ability to assess trade-off patterns and differences in plasticity across species/populations more broadly.

The interplay between temperature, Trypanosoma cruzi parasite load, and nutrition: Their effects on the development and life-cycle of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius prolixus

Chagas disease, caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi transmitted by blood-sucking insects of the subfamily Triatominae, is a major neglected tropical disease affecting 6 to 7 million of people worldwide. Rhodnius prolixus, one of the most important vectors of Chagas disease in Latin America, is known to be highly sensitive to environmental factors, including temperature. This study aimed to investigate the effects of different temperatures on R. prolixus development and life-cycle, its relationship with T. cruzi, and to gather information about the nutritional habits and energy consumption of R. prolixus. We exposed uninfected and infected R. prolixus to four different temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C, and monitored their survival, developmental rate, body and blood meal masses, urine production, and the temporal dynamics of parasite concentration in the excreted urine of the triatomines over the course of their development. Our results demonstrate that temperature significantly impacts R. prolixus development, life-cycle and their relationship with T. cruzi, as R. prolixus exposed to higher temperatures had a shorter developmental time and a higher mortality rate compared to those exposed to lower temperatures, as well as a lower ability to retain weight between blood meals. Infection also decreased the capacity of the triatomines to retain weight gained by blood-feeding to the next developmental stage, and this effect was proportional to parasite concentration in excreted urine. We also showed that T. cruzi multiplication varied depending on temperature, with the lowest temperature having the lowest parasite load. Our findings provide important insights into the potential impact of climate change on the epidemiology of Chagas disease, and can contribute to efforts to model the future distribution of this disease. Our study also raises new questions, highlighting the need for further research in order to understand the complex interactions between temperature, vector biology, and parasite transmission.

Resetting thermal limits: 10-year-old white sturgeon display pronounced but reversible thermal plasticity

While many ectotherms improve thermal tolerance in response to prolonged thermal stress, little is known about the lasting effects of warm acclimation after returning to cooler temperatures. Furthermore, thermal stress may disproportionately impact threatened and endangered species. To address this, we repeatedly measured critical thermal maxima (CTmax; °C) and associated stress responses (hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, plasma cortisol) of endangered subadult white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in response to control temperature (pre-acclimation; 14°C), after 1 month at either control or warm temperature (acclimation; 14°C or 20°C), and after one smonth following return to control temperature (post-acclimation; 14°C). While control fish demonstrated fairly repeatable thermal tolerance (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.479), warm-acclimated fish experienced a ∼3.1°C increase in thermal tolerance and when re-acclimated to control temperature, decreased thermal tolerance ∼1.9°C. Hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, and final splenic somatic index (spleen mass relative to whole body mass, collected after post-acclimation CTmax) were not significantly different between control and treatment fish, suggesting no effects of warm acclimation on aerobic capacity. Plasma cortisol was significantly higher in control fish after pre-acclimation and post-acclimation CTmax trials, but importantly, acclimation temperature did not affect this response. Strikingly, final hepatosomatic index (relative liver size) was 45% lower in treatment fish, indicating warm acclimation may have lasting effects on energy usage and metabolism, even after reacclimating to control temperature. To our knowledge, these 10-year-old subadult sturgeon are the oldest sturgeon experimentally tested with regards to thermal plasticity and demonstrate incredible capacity for thermal acclimation relative to other fishes. However, more research is needed to determine whether the ability to acclimate to warm temperature may come with a persistent cost.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

A data-driven framework to model the organism-environment system

Organisms modify their development and function in response to the environment. At the same time, the environment is modified by the activities of the organism. Despite the ubiquity of such dynamical interactions in nature, it remains challenging to develop models that accurately represent them, and that can be fitted using data. These features are desirable when modeling phenomena such as phenotypic plasticity, to generate quantitative predictions of how the system will respond to environmental signals of different magnitude or at different times, for example, during ontogeny. Here, we explain a modeling framework that represents the organism and environment as a single coupled dynamical system in terms of inputs and outputs. Inputs are external signals, and outputs are measurements of the system in time. The framework uses time-series data of inputs and outputs to fit a nonlinear black-box model that allows to predict how the system will respond to novel input signals. The framework has three key properties: it captures the dynamical nature of the organism-environment system, it can be fitted with data, and it can be applied without detailed knowledge of the system. We study phenotypic plasticity using in silico experiments and demonstrate that the framework predicts the response to novel environmental signals. The framework allows us to model plasticity as a dynamical property that changes in time during ontogeny, reflecting the well-known fact that organisms are more or less plastic at different developmental stages.

No evidence for direct thermal carryover effects on starvation tolerance in the obligate blood-feeder, Glossina morsitans morsitans

Thermal stress during development can prime animals to cope better with similar conditions in later life. Alternatively, negative effects of thermal stress can persist across life stages and result in poorer quality adults (negative carryover effects). As mean temperatures increase due to climate change, evidence for such effects across diverse taxa is required. Using Glossina morsitans morsitans, a species of tsetse fly and vector of trypanosomiasis, we asked whether (i) adaptive developmental plasticity allows flies to survive for longer under food deprivation when pupal and adult temperatures are matched; or (ii) temperature stress during development persists into adulthood, resulting in a greater risk of death. We did not find any advantage of matched pupal and adult temperature in terms of improved starvation tolerance, and no direct negative carryover effects were observed. There was some evidence for indirect carryover effects-high pupal temperature produced flies of lower body mass, which, in turn, resulted in greater starvation risk. However, adult temperature had the largest impact on starvation tolerance by far: flies died 60% faster at 31°C than those experiencing 25°C, consequently reducing survival time from a median of 8 (interquartile range (IQR) 7-9) to 5 (IQR 5-5.25) days. This highlights differences in temperature sensitivity between life stages, as there was no direct effect of pupal temperature on starvation tolerance. Therefore, for some regions of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change may result in a higher mortality rate in emerging tsetse while they search for their first blood meal. This study reinforces existing evidence that responses to temperature are life stage specific and that plasticity may have limited capacity to buffer the effects of climate change.

Differential effects of parental and developmental temperatures on larval thermal adaptation in oviparous and viviparous model fish species

Phenotypic plasticity has been identified as a major mechanism of response to changing temperatures. Parental effects are potentially important drivers of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, while developmental plasticity also plays a key role in generating phenotypic variation. However, little is known of the interaction between parental effects and developmental plasticity on the thermal phenotypes of fishes with different reproductive modes (i.e. oviparous vs. viviparous). To understand the contributions of inter- and intra-generational plasticity of thermal phenotypes (preferred temperature, avoidance temperatures, critical thermal thresholds) in fishes with different reproductive modes, we carried out a factorial experiment in which both breeding parents and offspring were exposed to lower (22 °C) or higher (28 °C) temperatures, using zebrafish (Danio rerio) and guppies (Poecilia reticulata) as representative oviparous and viviparous species. We found that offspring thermal preference and avoidance of both species were significantly influenced by parental effects and developmental plasticity, with higher thermal preference and avoidance consistent with higher background (parental) temperature treatments. However, parental effects were only found to impose significant effect on the thermal tolerances of guppies. The findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, may be an important mechanism to adapt to rapid climate changes, and that future temperature fluctuations may impose more profound effects on viviparous fish species in general.

The Contribution of Mutation to Variation in Temperature-Dependent Sprint Speed in Zebrafish, Danio rerio

AbstractThe contribution of new mutations to phenotypic variation and the consequences of this variation for individual fitness are fundamental concepts for understanding genetic variation and adaptation. Here, we investigated how mutation influenced variation in a complex trait in zebrafish, Danio rerio. Typical of many ecologically relevant traits in ectotherms, swimming speed in fish is temperature dependent, with evidence of adaptive evolution of thermal performance. We chemically induced novel germline point mutations in males and measured sprint speed in their sons at six temperatures (between 16°C and 34°C). Heterozygous mutational effects on speed were strongly positively correlated among temperatures, resulting in statistical support for only a single axis of mutational variation, reflecting temperature-independent variation in speed (faster-slower mode). These results suggest pleiotropic effects on speed across different temperatures; however, spurious correlations arise via linkage or heterogeneity in mutation number when mutations have consistent directional effects on each trait. Here, mutation did not change mean speed, indicating no directional bias in mutational effects. The results contribute to emerging evidence that mutations may predominantly have synergistic cross-environment effects, in contrast to conditionally neutral or antagonistic effects that underpin thermal adaptation. We discuss several aspects of experimental design that may affect resolution of mutations with nonsynergistic effects.

Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods

Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities.

Comparison of metabolic rate between two genetically distinct populations of lake sturgeon

Environmental temperatures differ across latitudes in the temperate zone, with relatively lower summer and fall temperatures in the north leading to a shorter growing season prior to winter. As an adaptive response, during early life stages, fish in northern latitudes may grow faster than their conspecifics in southern latitudes, which potentially manifests as different allometric relationships between body mass and metabolic rate. In the present study, we examined if population or year class had an effect on the variation of metabolic rate and metabolic scaling of age-0 lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) by examining these traits in both a northern (Nelson River) and a southern (Winnipeg River) population. We compiled 6 years of data that used intermittent flow respirometry to measure metabolic rate within the first year of life for developing sturgeon that were raised in the same environment at 16°C. We then used a Bayesian modeling approach to examine the impacts of population and year class on metabolic rate and mass-scaling of metabolic rate. Despite previous reports of genetic differences between populations, our results showed that there were no significant differences in standard metabolic rate, routine metabolic rate, maximum metabolic rate, and metabolic scaling between the two geographically separated populations at a temperature of 16°C. Our analysis implied that the lack of metabolic differences between populations could be due to family effects/parental contribution, or the rearing temperature used in the study. The present research provided insights for conservation and reintroduction strategies for these populations of lake sturgeon, which are endangered or threatened across most of their natural range.

Life cycle complexity and body mass drive erratic changes in climate vulnerability across ontogeny in a seasonally migrating butterfly

Physiological traits are often used for vulnerability assessments of organismal responses to climate change. Trait values can change dramatically over the life cycle of organisms but are typically assessed at a single developmental stage. Reconciling ontogenetic changes in physiological traits with vulnerability assessments often reveals early life-stage vulnerabilities. The degree to which ontogenetic changes in physiological traits are due to changes in body mass over development versus stage-specific responses determines the degree to which mass can be used as a proxy for vulnerability. Here, we use the painted lady butterfly, Vanessa cardui, to test ontogenetic changes in two physiological traits, the acute thermal sensitivity of routine metabolic rate (RMR Q10) and the critical thermal maximum (CTmax). RMR Q10 generally followed ontogenetic changes in body mass, with stages characterized by smaller body mass exhibiting lower acute thermal sensitivity. However, CTmax was largely decoupled from ontogenetic changes in body mass. In contrast with trends from other studies showing increasing vulnerability among progressively earlier developmental stages, our study revealed highly erratic patterns of vulnerability across ontogeny. Specifically, we found the lowest joint-trait vulnerability (both RMR Q10 and CTmax) in the earliest developmental stage we tested (3rd instar larvae), the highest vulnerabilities in the next two developmental stages (4th and 5th instar larvae), and reduced vulnerability into the pupal and adult stages. Our study supports growing evidence of mechanistic decoupling of physiology across developmental stages and suggests that body mass is not a universal proxy for all physiological trait indicators of climate vulnerability.

Rapid heat hardening in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei

Adaptive thermal tolerance plasticity can dampen the negative effects of warming. However, our knowledge of tolerance plasticity is lacking for embryonic stages that are relatively immobile and may benefit the most from an adaptive plastic response. We tested for heat hardening capacity (a rapid increase in thermal tolerance that manifests in minutes to hours) in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei. We compared the survival of a lethal temperature exposure between embryos that either did (hardened) or did not (not hardened) receive a high but non-lethal temperature pre-treatment. We also measured heart rates (HRs) at common garden temperatures before and after heat exposures to assess metabolic consequences. 'Hardened' embryos had significantly greater survival after lethal heat exposure relative to 'not hardened' embryos. That said, heat pre-treatment led to a subsequent increase in embryo HR that did not occur in embryos that did not receive pre-treatment, indicative of an energetic cost of mounting the heat hardening response. Our results are not only consistent with adaptive thermal tolerance plasticity in these embryos (greater heat survival after heat exposure), but also highlight associated costs. Thermal tolerance plasticity may be an important mechanism by which embryos respond to warming that warrants greater consideration.

Slow and population specific evolutionary response to a warming environment

Adaptation to increasingly warmer environments may be critical to avoid extinction. Whether and how these adaptive responses can arise is under debate. Though several studies have tackled evolutionary responses under different thermal selective regimes, very few have specifically addressed the underlying patterns of thermal adaptation under scenarios of progressive warming conditions. Also, considering how much past history affects such evolutionary response is critical. Here, we report a long-term experimental evolution study addressing the adaptive response of Drosophila subobscura populations with distinct biogeographical history to two thermal regimes. Our results showed clear differences between the historically differentiated populations, with adaptation to the warming conditions only evident in the low latitude populations. Furthermore, this adaptation was only detected after more than 30 generations of thermal evolution. Our findings show some evolutionary potential of Drosophila populations to respond to a warming environment, but the response was slow and population specific, emphasizing limitations to the ability of ectotherms to adapt to rapid thermal shifts.

The time course of acclimation of critical thermal maxima is modulated by the magnitude of temperature change and thermal daily fluctuations

Plasticity in the critical thermal maximum (CT_max) helps ectotherms survive in variable thermal conditions. Yet, little is known about the environmental mechanisms modulating its time course. We used the larvae of three neotropical anurans (Boana platanera, Engystomops pustulosus and Rhinella horribilis) to test whether the magnitude of temperature changes and the existence of fluctuations in the thermal environment affected both the amount of change in CT_max and its acclimation rate (i.e., its time course). For that, we transferred tadpoles from a pre-treatment temperature (23 °C, constant) to two different water temperatures: mean (28 °C) and hot (33 °C), crossed with constant and daily fluctuating thermal regimes, and recorded CT_max values, daily during six days. We modeled changes in CT_max as an asymptotic function of time, temperature, and the daily thermal fluctuation. The fitted function provided the asymptotic CT_max value (CT_max∞) and CT_max acclimation rate (k). Tadpoles achieved their CT_max∞ between one and three days. Transferring tadpoles to the hot treatment generated higher CT_max∞ at earlier times, inducing faster acclimation rates in tadpoles. In contrast, thermal fluctuations equally led to higher CT_max∞ values but tadpoles required longer times to achieve CT_max∞ (i.e., slower acclimation rates). These thermal treatments interacted differently with the studied species. In general, the thermal generalist Rhinella horribilis showed the most plastic acclimation rates whereas the ephemeral-pond breeder Engystomops pustulosus, more exposed to heat peaks during larval development, showed less plastic (i.e., canalized) acclimation rates. Further comparative studies of the time course of CT_max acclimation should help to disentangle the complex interplay between the thermal environment and species ecology, to understand how tadpoles acclimate to heat stress.

Developmental environments do not affect thermal physiological traits in reptiles: an experimental test and meta-analysis

On a global scale, organisms face significant challenges due to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. In many ectotherms, developmental and physiological processes are sensitive to changes in temperature and resources. Developmental plasticity in thermal physiology may provide adaptive advantages to environmental extremes if early environmental conditions are predictive of late-life environments. Here, we conducted a laboratory experiment to test how developmental temperature and maternal resource investment influence thermal physiological traits (critical thermal maximum: CTmax and thermal preference: Tpref) in a common skink (Lampropholis delicata). We then compared our experimental findings more broadly across reptiles (snakes, lizards and turtles) using meta-analysis. In both our experimental study and meta-analysis, we did not find evidence that developmental environments influence CTmax or Tpref. Furthermore, the effects of developmental environments on thermal physiology did not vary by age, taxon or climate zone (temperate/tropical). Overall, the magnitude of developmental plasticity on thermal physiology appears to be limited across reptile taxa suggesting that behavioural or evolutionary processes may be more important. However, there is a paucity of information across most reptile taxa, and a broader focus on thermal performance curves themselves will be critical in understanding the impacts of changing thermal conditions on reptiles in the future.

Divergence in rates of phenotypic plasticity among ectotherms

An individual's fitness cost associated with environmental change likely depends on the rate of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, and yet our understanding of plasticity rates in an ecological and evolutionary context remains limited. We provide the first quantitative synthesis of existing plasticity rate data, focusing on acclimation of temperature tolerance in ectothermic animals, where we demonstrate applicability of a recently proposed analytical approach. The analyses reveal considerable variation in plasticity rates of this trait among species, with half-times (how long it takes for the initial deviation from the acclimated phenotype to be reduced by 50% when individuals are shifted to a new environment) ranging from 3.7 to 770.2 h. Furthermore, rates differ among higher taxa, being higher for amphibians and reptiles than for crustaceans and fishes, and with insects being intermediate. We argue that a more comprehensive understanding of phenotypic plasticity will be attained through increased focus on the rate parameter.

A comprehensive database of amphibian heat tolerance

Rising temperatures represent a significant threat to the survival of ectothermic animals. As such, upper thermal limits represent an important trait to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to changing temperatures. For instance, one may use upper thermal limits to estimate current and future thermal safety margins (i.e., the proximity of upper thermal limits to experienced temperatures), use this trait together with other physiological traits in species distribution models, or investigate the plasticity and evolvability of these limits for buffering the impacts of changing temperatures. While datasets on thermal tolerance limits have been previously compiled, they sometimes report single estimates for a given species, do not present measures of data dispersion, and are biased towards certain parts of the globe. To overcome these limitations, we systematically searched the literature in seven languages to produce the most comprehensive dataset to date on amphibian upper thermal limits, spanning 3,095 estimates across 616 species. This resource will represent a useful tool to evaluate the vulnerability of amphibians, and ectotherms more generally, to changing temperatures.