Genetic evolution, plasticity, and bet-hedging as adaptive responses to temporally autocorrelated fluctuating selection: A quantitative genetic model

The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities

Suitable conditions for species to survive and reproduce constitute their ecological niche, which is built by abiotic conditions and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics. Organisms should ideally assess and use information about all these environmental dimensions to adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their own internal conditions. Dispersal plasticity is often considered through its dependence on abiotic conditions or conspecific density and, to a lesser extent, with reference to the effects of interactions with heterospecifics, potentially leading to misinterpretation of dispersal drivers. Here, we first review the evidence for the effects of and the potential interplays between abiotic factors, biotic interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics and phenotype on dispersal decisions. We then present an experimental test of these potential interplays, investigating the effects of density and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics on temperature-dependent dispersal in microcosms of Tetrahymena ciliates. We found significant differences in dispersal rates depending on the temperature, density and presence of another strain or species. However, the presence and density of conspecifics and heterospecifics had no effects on the thermal-dependency of dispersal. We discuss the causes and consequences of the (lack of) interplay between the different environmental dimensions and the phenotype for metacommunity assembly and dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Drivers of biological response to fluctuating seawater ph conditions in sea urchin echinus esculentus larvae

A large body of evidence is documenting the impact of reduced pH on marine species and ecosystems. This information is used to infer the present and future impacts of ocean acidification. However, a vast majority of the studies were performed using constant pH and the high level of pH variability experienced by marine organisms on the coastal zone was often overlooked. Recent studies highlight the key role of this variability in driving biological response to pH as well as species sensitivity to ocean acidification. For example, it was hypothesized that because of local adaptation, the extreme of the present range of pH variability is a good predictor for local biological thresholds. Using a complex experimental design, we investigated what part of the pH variability is driving the biological response of the sea urchin Echinus esculentus larvae. Comparing stable (pH 8.13, 7.82, 7.53) and fluctuating treatments (12 h at pH 8.13 and 12 h at pH 7.53) following natural or inverted diurnal cycles, we were able to show that (i) under constant conditions, low pH deviating from the present range of natural variability had a negative effect on larval growth rate and calcification; (ii) under fluctuating conditions, a desynchronization of the pH variation with the photoperiod led to decreased larval growth rate and calcification; (iii) overall, larval fitness (survival, growth and calcification) was higher under fluctuating conditions as compared to constant. While these data do not support the hypothesis that the minimum pH is the main driver of the biological response, they provide evidence of adaptation to variability in a coastal species with associated a cost of plasticity but not a cost of canalization.

Range expansion can promote the evolution of plastic generalism in coarse-grained landscapes

Phenotypic plasticity is one way for organisms to deal with variable environments through generalism. However, plasticity is not found universally and its evolution may be constrained by costs and other limitations such as complexity: the need for multiple mutational steps before the adaptation is realized. Theory predicts that greater experienced heterogeneity, such as organisms may encounter when spatial heterogeneity is fine-grained relative to dispersal, should favor the evolution of a broader niche. Here we tested this prediction via simulation. We found that, contrary to classical predictions, coarse-grained landscapes can be the most favorable for the evolution of plasticity, but only when populations encounter those landscapes through range expansion. During these range expansions, coarse-grained landscapes select for each step in the complex mutational pathway to plastic generalism by blocking the dispersal of specialists. These circumstances provide ecological opportunities for innovative mutations that change the niche. Our results indicate a new mechanism by which range expansion and spatially structured landscapes interact to shape evolution and reveal that the environments in which a complex adaptation has the highest fitness may not be the most favorable for its evolution.

Are parental condition transfer effects more widespread than is currently appreciated?

It has long been recognized that the environment experienced by parents can influence the traits of offspring (i.e. 'parental effects'). Much research has explored whether mothers respond to predictable shifts in environmental signals by modifying offspring phenotypes to best match future conditions. Many organisms experience conditions that theory predicts should favor the evolution of such 'anticipatory parental effects', but such predictions have received limited empirical support. 'Condition transfer effects' are an alternative to anticipatory effects that occur when the environment experienced by parents during development influences offspring fitness. Condition transfer effects occur when parents that experience high-quality conditions produce offspring that exhibit higher fitness irrespective of the environmental conditions in the offspring generation. Condition transfer effects are not driven by external signals but are instead a byproduct of past environmental quality. They are also likely adaptive but have received far less attention than anticipatory effects. Here, we review the generality of condition transfer effects and show that they are much more widespread than is currently appreciated. Condition transfer effects are observed across taxa and are commonly associated with experimental manipulations of resource conditions experienced by parents. Our Review calls for increased research into condition transfer effects when considering the role of parental effects in ecology and evolution.

Individual variation in thermally induced plasticity of metabolic rates: ecological and evolutionary implications for a warming world

Energy metabolism is a fundamental property of life providing the energy for all processes and functions within an organism. As it is temperature-dependent, it mediates the effects of changing climate on ectotherm fitness and population dynamics. Though resting metabolic rate is a highly labile trait, part of its variation is individually consistent. Recent findings show that resting metabolic rate contains consistent variation not only in the elevations (intercepts) but also in the slopes of individual thermal dependence curves, challenging the thermal dependence assumption for this trait in several ectotherm taxa. I argue that among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves represents a previously undetected component of ectotherm response to climate change, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and population resilience under increasing stochasticity of thermal environment. Future studies need to examine not only the amount of among-individual variation in thermal metabolic curves across phylogenetic contexts but also other aspects concerning its mechanisms and adaptive significance to improve predictions about the impact of climate change on ectotherm population dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary significance of variation in metabolic rates'.

Chasing the fitness optimum: temporal variation in the genetic and environmental expression of life-history traits for a perennial plant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ability of plants to track shifting fitness optima is crucial within the context of global change, where increasing environmental extremes may have dramatic consequences for life history, fitness, and ultimately population persistence. However, tracking changing conditions relies on the relationship between genetic and environmental variance, where selection may favour plasticity, the evolution of genetic differences, or both depending on the spatial and temporal scale of environmental heterogeneity.

METHODS

Over three years, we compared the genetic and environmental components of phenological and life-history variation in a common environment for the spring perennial Geum triflorum. Populations were sourced from alvar habitats that exhibit extreme but predictable annual flood-desiccation cycles and prairie habitats that exhibit similar but less predictable variation in water availability.

KEY RESULTS

Heritability was generally higher for early life-history (emergence probability) relative to later life-history traits (total seed mass), indicating that traits associated with establishment are under stronger genetic control relative to later life-history fitness expressions, where plasticity may play a larger role. This pattern was particularly notable in seeds sourced from environmentally extreme but predictable alvar habitats relative to less predictable prairie environments. Fitness landscapes based on seed source origin, largely characterized by varying water availability and flower production, described selection as the degree of maladaptation of seed source environment relative to the prairie common garden environment. Plants from alvar populations were consistently closer to the fitness optimum across all years. Annually, the breadth of the fitness optimum expanded primarily along a moisture gradient, with inclusion of more populations onto the expanding optimum.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of temporally and spatially varying selection in life-history evolution, indicating plasticity may become a primary mechanism needed to track fitness for later life-history events within perennial systems.

Bet Hedging Is Not Sufficient to Explain Germination Patterns of a Winter Annual Plant

AbstractBet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.

The evolutionary ecology of variation in labile traits: selection on its among- and within-individual components

Closer integration between behavioral ecology and quantitative genetics has resulted in a recent increase in studies partitioning sources of variation in labile traits. Repeatable between-individual differences are commonly documented, and their existence is generally explained using adaptive arguments, implying that selection has shaped variation at the among- and within-individual level. However, predicting the expected pattern of non-adaptive phenotypic variation around an optimal phenotypic value is difficult, hampering our ability to provide quantitative assessments of the adaptive nature of observed patterns of phenotypic variation within a population. We argue that estimating the strength of selection on trait variation among and within individuals provides a way to test adaptive theory concerned with phenotypic variation. To achieve this aim, we describe a nonlinear selection analysis that enables the study of the selective pressures on trait means and their among- and within-individual variation. By describing an integrative approach for studying the strength of selection on phenotypic variation at different levels, we hope to stimulate empirical studies investigating the ecological factors that can shape the repeatability, heritability, and coefficients of variation of labile and other repeatedly expressed traits.

The evolution of plasticity at geographic range edges

Phenotypic plasticity enables rapid responses to environmental change, and could facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. What drives the evolution of plasticity at range edges, and the capacity of range-edge individuals to be plastic, remain unclear. Here, we propose that accurately predicting when plasticity itself evolves or mediates adaptive evolution at expanding range edges requires integrating knowledge on the demography and evolution of edge populations. Our synthesis shows that: (i) the demography of edge populations can amplify or attenuate responses to selection for plasticity through diverse pathways, and (ii) demographic effects on plasticity are modified by the stability of range edges. Our spatially explicit synthesis for plasticity has the potential to improve predictions for range shifts with climate change.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Brood size in an uncertain world

Reproduction in an uncertain world is fraught. The consequences of investing in too many offspring in a resource poor season can be disastrous but so too is missing the opportunity of a resource rich year. We consider a simple population and individual growth model and use Lyapunov exponents to find analytical results for the optimum brood size under stochastic environmental conditions. We show that if the environment shows dramatic changes between breeding seasons choosing a smaller brood size is more likely to be successful but the best strategy is to synchronize your reproduction to the food availability. Finally, we show that if the cost of having offspring is high it can be better to live in a highly varying world with a plastic strategy that synchronizes to the environment than to live in a deterministic world with a constant strategy, a finding with implications for invasive species and climate change.

Bet-hedging via dispersal aids the evolution of plastic responses to unreliable cues

Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome.

Interspecific Drought Cuing in Plants

Plants readily communicate with their pollinators, herbivores, symbionts, and the predators and pathogens of their herbivores. We previously demonstrated that plants could exchange, relay, and adaptively utilize drought cues from their conspecific neighbors. Here, we studied the hypothesis that plants can exchange drought cues with their interspecific neighbors. Triplets of various combinations of split-root Stenotaphrum secundatum and Cynodon dactylon plants were planted in rows of four pots. One root of the first plant was subjected to drought while its other root shared its pot with one of the roots of an unstressed target neighbor, which, in turn, shared its other pot with an additional unstressed target neighbor. Drought cuing and relayed cuing were observed in all intra- and interspecific neighbor combinations, but its strength depended on plant identity and position. Although both species initiated similar stomatal closure in both immediate and relayed intraspecific neighbors, interspecific cuing between stressed plants and their immediate unstressed neighbors depended on neighbor identity. Combined with previous findings, the results suggest that stress cuing and relay cuing could affect the magnitude and fate of interspecific interactions, and the ability of whole communities to endure abiotic stresses. The findings call for further investigation into the mechanisms and ecological implications of interplant stress cuing at the population and community levels.

The lack of genetic variation underlying thermal transcriptomic plasticity suggests limited adaptability of the Northern shrimp, Pandalus borealis

Introduction

Genetic variation underlies the populations’ potential to adapt to and persist in a changing environment, while phenotypic plasticity can play a key role in buffering the negative impacts of such change at the individual level.

Methods

We investigated the role of genetic variation in the thermal response of the northern shrimp Pandalus borealis, an ectotherm species distributed in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. More specifically, we estimated the proportion transcriptomic responses explained by genetic variance of female shrimp from three origins after 30 days of exposure to three temperature treatments.

Results

We characterized the P. borealis transcriptome (170,377 transcripts, of which 27.48% were functionally annotated) and then detected a total of 1,607 and 907 differentially expressed transcripts between temperatures and origins, respectively. Shrimp from different origins displayed high but similar level of transcriptomic plasticity in response to elevated temperatures. Differences in transcript expression among origins were not correlated to population genetic differentiation or diversity but to environmental conditions at origin during sampling.

Discussion

The lack of genetic variation explaining thermal plasticity suggests limited adaptability in this species’ response to future environmental changes. These results together with higher mortality observed at the highest temperature indicate that the thermal niche of P. borealis will likely be restricted to higher latitudes in the future. This prediction concurs with current decreases in abundance observed at the southern edge of this species geographical distribution, as it is for other cold-adapted crustaceans.

Precipitation predictability affects intra- and trans-generational plasticity and causes differential selection on root traits of Papaver rhoeas

Climate forecasts show that in many regions the temporal distribution of precipitation events will become less predictable. Root traits may play key roles in dealing with changes in precipitation predictability, but their functional plastic responses, including transgenerational processes, are scarcely known. We investigated root trait plasticity of Papaver rhoeas with respect to higher versus lower intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal precipitation predictability (i.e., the degree of temporal autocorrelation among precipitation events) during a four-year outdoor multi-generation experiment. We first tested how the simulated predictability regimes affected intra-generational plasticity of root traits and allocation strategies of the ancestors, and investigated the selective forces acting on them. Second, we exposed three descendant generations to the same predictability regime experienced by their mothers or to a different one. We then investigated whether high inter-generational predictability causes root trait differentiation, whether transgenerational root plasticity existed and whether it was affected by the different predictability treatments. We found that the number of secondary roots, root biomass and root allocation strategies of ancestors were affected by changes in precipitation predictability, in line with intra-generational plasticity. Lower predictability induced a root response, possibly reflecting a fast-acquisitive strategy that increases water absorbance from shallow soil layers. Ancestors' root traits were generally under selection, and the predictability treatments did neither affect the strength nor the direction of selection. Transgenerational effects were detected in root biomass and root weight ratio (RWR). In presence of lower predictability, descendants significantly reduced RWR compared to ancestors, leading to an increase in performance. This points to a change in root allocation in order to maintain or increase the descendants' fitness. Moreover, transgenerational plasticity existed in maximum rooting depth and root biomass, and the less predictable treatment promoted the lowest coefficient of variation among descendants' treatments in five out of six root traits. This shows that the level of maternal predictability determines the variation in the descendants' responses, and suggests that lower phenotypic plasticity evolves in less predictable environments. Overall, our findings show that roots are functional plastic traits that rapidly respond to differences in precipitation predictability, and that the plasticity and adaptation of root traits may crucially determine how climate change will affect plants.

Dispersal plasticity driven by variation in fitness across species and environmental gradients

Dispersal plasticity, when organisms adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their environment, can play a major role in ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but how it relates to fitness remains scarcely explored. Theory predicts that high dispersal plasticity should evolve when environmental gradients have a strong impact on fitness. Using microcosms, we tested in five species of the genus Tetrahymena whether dispersal plasticity relates to differences in fitness sensitivity along three environmental gradients. Dispersal plasticity was species- and environment-dependent. As expected, dispersal plasticity was generally related to fitness sensitivity, with higher dispersal plasticity when fitness is more affected by environmental gradients. Individuals often preferentially disperse out of low fitness environments, but leaving environments that should yield high fitness was also commonly observed. We provide empirical support for a fundamental, but largely untested, assumption in dispersal theory: the extent of dispersal plasticity correlates with fitness sensitivity to the environment.

Organelle bottlenecks facilitate evolvability by traversing heteroplasmic fitness valleys

Bioenergetic organelles-mitochondria and plastids-retain their own genomes (mtDNA and ptDNA), and these organelle DNA (oDNA) molecules are vital for eukaryotic life. Like all genomes, oDNA must be able to evolve to suit new environmental challenges. However, mixed oDNA populations in cells can challenge cellular bioenergetics, providing a penalty to the appearance and adaptation of new mutations. Here we show that organelle "bottlenecks," mechanisms increasing cell-to-cell oDNA variability during development, can overcome this mixture penalty and facilitate the adaptation of beneficial mutations. We show that oDNA heteroplasmy and bottlenecks naturally emerge in evolutionary simulations subjected to fluctuating environments, demonstrating that this evolvability is itself evolvable. Usually thought of as a mechanism to clear damaging mutations, organelle bottlenecks therefore also resolve the tension between intracellular selection for pure cellular oDNA populations and the "bet-hedging" need for evolvability and adaptation to new environments. This general theory suggests a reason for the maintenance of organelle heteroplasmy in cells, and may explain some of the observed diversity in organelle maintenance and inheritance across taxa.

Variation in shape and consistency of selection between populations of the threatened Hihi (Notiomystis cincta)

The shape and intensity of natural selection can vary between years, potentially resulting in a chronic reduction of fitness as individuals need to track a continually changing optimum of fitness (i.e., a "lag load"). In endangered species, often characterized by small population size, the lack of genetic diversity is expected to limit the response to this constant need to adjust to fluctuating selection, increasing the fitness burden and thus the risk of extinction. Here, we use long-term monitoring data to assess whether the type of selection for a key fitness trait (i.e., lay date) differs between two reintroduced populations of a threatened passerine bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We apply recent statistical developments to test for the presence or absence of fluctuation in selection in both the Tiritiri Mātangi Island and the Kārori sanctuary populations. Our results support the presence of stabilizing selection in Tiritiri Mātangi with a potential moving optimum for lay date. In Kārori our results favour a regime of directional selection. Although the shape of selection may differ, for both populations an earlier lay date generally increases fitness in both environments. Further, the moving optimum models of lay date on Tiritiri Mātangi, suggesting that selection varies between years, imply a substantial lag load in addition to the fitness burden caused by the population laying too late. Our results highlight the importance of characterizing the form and temporal variation of selection for each population to predict the effects of environmental change and to inform management.

Characterization, costs, cues and future perspectives of phenotypic plasticity

BACKGROUND

Plastic responses of plants to the environment are ubiquitous. Phenotypic plasticity occurs in many forms and at many biological scales, and its adaptive value depends on the specific environment and interactions with other plant traits and organisms. Even though plasticity is the norm rather than the exception, its complex nature has been a challenge in characterizing the expression of plasticity, its adaptive value for fitness and the environmental cues that regulate its expression.

SCOPE

This review discusses the characterization and costs of plasticity and approaches, considerations, and promising research directions in studying plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is genetically controlled and heritable; however, little is known about how organisms perceive, interpret and respond to environmental cues, and the genes and pathways associated with plasticity. Not every genotype is plastic for every trait, and plasticity is not infinite, suggesting trade-offs, costs and limits to expression of plasticity. The timing, specificity and duration of plasticity are critical to their adaptive value for plant fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

There are many research opportunities to advance our understanding of plant phenotypic plasticity. New methodology and technological breakthroughs enable the study of phenotypic responses across biological scales and in multiple environments. Understanding the mechanisms of plasticity and how the expression of specific phenotypes influences fitness in many environmental ranges would benefit many areas of plant science ranging from basic research to applied breeding for crop improvement.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

The advantage of sex: Reinserting fluctuating selection in the pluralist approach

The advantage of sex, and its fixation in some clades and species all over the eukaryote tree of life, is considered an evolutionary enigma, especially regarding its assumed two-fold cost. Several likely hypotheses have been proposed such as (1) a better response to the negative frequency-dependent selection imposed by the “Red Queen” hypothesis; (2) the competition between siblings induced by the Tangled Bank hypothesis; (3) the existence of genetic and of (4) ecological factors that can diminish the cost of sex to less than the standard assumed two-fold; and (5) a better maintenance of genetic diversity and its resulting phenotypic variation, providing a selective advantage in randomly fluctuating environments. While these hypotheses have mostly been studied separately, they can also act simultaneously. This was advocated by several studies which presented a pluralist point of view. Only three among the five causes cited above were considered yet in such a framework: the Red Queen hypothesis, the Tangled Bank and the genetic factors lowering the cost of sex. We thus simulated the evolution of a finite mutating population undergoing negative frequency-dependent selection on phenotypes and a two-fold (or less) cost of sexuality, experiencing randomly fluctuating selection along generations. The individuals inherited their reproductive modes, either clonal or sexual. We found that exclusive sexuality begins to fix in populations exposed to environmental variation that exceeds the width of one ecological niche (twice the standard deviation of a Gaussian response to environment). This threshold was lowered by increasing negative frequency-dependent selection and when reducing the two-fold cost of sex. It contributes advocating that the different processes involved in a short-term advantage of sex and recombination can act in combination to favor the fixation of sexual reproduction in populations.

A reaction norm framework for the evolution of learning: how cumulative experience shapes phenotypic plasticity

Learning is a familiar process to most people, but it currently lacks a fully developed theoretical position within evolutionary biology. Learning (memory and forgetting) involves adjustments in behaviour in response to cumulative sequences of prior experiences or exposures to environmental cues. We therefore suggest that all forms of learning (and some similar biological phenomena in development, aging, acquired immunity and acclimation) can usefully be viewed as special cases of phenotypic plasticity, and formally modelled by expanding the concept of reaction norms to include additional environmental dimensions quantifying sequences of cumulative experience (learning) and the time delays between events (forgetting). Memory therefore represents just one of a number of different internal neurological, physiological, hormonal and anatomical ‘states’ that mediate the carry‐over effects of cumulative environmental experiences on phenotypes across different time periods. The mathematical and graphical conceptualisation of learning as plasticity within a reaction norm framework can easily accommodate a range of different ecological scenarios, closely linking statistical estimates with biological processes. Learning and non‐learning plasticity interact whenever cumulative prior experience causes a modification in the reaction norm (a) elevation [mean phenotype], (b) slope [responsiveness], (c) environmental estimate error [informational memory] and/or (d) phenotypic precision [skill acquisition]. Innovation and learning new contingencies in novel (laboratory) environments can also be accommodated within this approach. A common reaction norm approach should thus encourage productive cross‐fertilisation of ideas between traditional studies of learning and phenotypic plasticity. As an example, we model the evolution of plasticity with and without learning under different levels of environmental estimation error to show how learning works as a specific adaptation promoting phenotypic plasticity in temporally autocorrelated environments. Our reaction norm framework for learning and analogous biological processes provides a conceptual and mathematical structure aimed at usefully stimulating future theoretical and empirical investigations into the evolution of plasticity across a wider range of ecological contexts, while providing new interdisciplinary connections regarding learning mechanisms.

Plasticity across levels: relating epigenomic, transcriptomic, and phenotypic responses to osmotic stress in a halotolerant microalga

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a given genotype to produce alternative phenotypes in response to its environment of development, is an important mechanism for coping with variable environments. While the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are diverse, their relative contributions need to be investigated quantitatively to better understand the evolvability of plasticity across biological levels. This requires relating plastic responses of the epigenome, transcriptome, and organismal phenotype, and investigating how they vary with the genotype. Here we carried out this approach for responses to osmotic stress in Dunaliella salina, a green microalga that is a model organism for salinity tolerance. We compared two strains that show markedly different demographic responses to osmotic stress, and showed that these phenotypic responses involve strain‐ and environment‐specific variation in gene expression levels, but a relative low—albeit significant—effect of strain × environment interaction. We also found an important genotype effect on the genome‐wide methylation pattern, but little contribution from environmental conditions to the latter. However, we did detect a significant marginal effect of epigenetic variation on gene expression, beyond the influence of genetic differences on epigenetic state, and we showed that hypomethylated regions are correlated with higher gene expression. Our results indicate that epigenetic mechanisms are either not involved in the rapid plastic response to environmental change in this species, or involve only few changes in trans that are sufficient to trigger concerted changes in the expression of many genes, and phenotypic responses by multiple traits.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment of range margins

It has been argued that adaptive phenotypic plasticity may facilitate range expansions over spatially and temporally variable environments. However, plasticity may induce fitness costs. This may hinder the evolution of plasticity. Earlier modelling studies examined the role of plasticity during range expansions of populations with fixed genetic variance. However, genetic variance evolves in natural populations. This may critically alter model outcomes. We ask: how does the capacity for plasticity in populations with evolving genetic variance alter range margins that populations without the capacity for plasticity are expected to attain? We answered this question using computer simulations and analytical approximations. We found a critical plasticity cost above which the capacity for plasticity has no impact on the expected range of the population. Below the critical cost, by contrast, plasticity facilitates range expansion, extending the range in comparison to that expected for populations without plasticity. We further found that populations may evolve plasticity to buffer temporal environmental fluctuations, but only when the plasticity cost is below the critical cost. Thus, the cost of plasticity is a key factor involved in range expansions of populations with the potential to express plastic response in the adaptive trait. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity

The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long‐standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non‐intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.

Bet-hedging in innate and adaptive immune systems

Immune system evolution is shaped by the fitness costs and trade-offs associated with mounting an immune response. Costs that arise mainly as a function of the magnitude of investment, including energetic and immunopathological costs, are well-represented in studies of immune system evolution. Less well considered, however, are the costs of immune cell plasticity and specialization. Hosts in nature encounter a large diversity of microbes and parasites that require different and sometimes conflicting immune mechanisms for defense, but it takes precious time to recognize and correctly integrate signals for an effective polarized response. In this perspective, we propose that bet-hedging can be a viable alternative to plasticity in immune cell effector function, discuss conditions under which bet-hedging is likely to be an advantageous strategy for different arms of the immune system, and present cases from both innate and adaptive immune systems that suggest bet-hedging at play.

Building on 150 Years of Knowledge: The Freshwater Isopod Asellus aquaticus as an Integrative Eco-Evolutionary Model System

Interactions between organisms and their environments are central to how biological diversity arises and how natural populations and ecosystems respond to environmental change. These interactions involve processes by which phenotypes are affected by or respond to external conditions (e.g., via phenotypic plasticity or natural selection) as well as processes by which organisms reciprocally interact with the environment (e.g., via eco-evolutionary feedbacks). Organism-environment interactions can be highly dynamic and operate on different hierarchical levels, from genes and phenotypes to populations, communities, and ecosystems. Therefore, the study of organism-environment interactions requires integrative approaches and model systems that are suitable for studies across different hierarchical levels. Here, we introduce the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus, a keystone species and an emerging invertebrate model system, as a prime candidate to address fundamental questions in ecology and evolution, and the interfaces therein. We review relevant fields of research that have used A. aquaticus and draft a set of specific scientific questions that can be answered using this species. Specifically, we propose that studies on A. aquaticus can help understanding (i) the influence of host-microbiome interactions on organismal and ecosystem function, (ii) the relevance of biotic interactions in ecosystem processes, and (iii) how ecological conditions and evolutionary forces facilitate phenotypic diversification.

Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

Multiple-batch spawning as a bet-hedging strategy in highly stochastic environments: An exploratory analysis of Atlantic cod

Stochastic environments shape life-history traits and can promote selection for risk-spreading strategies, such as bet-hedging. Although the strategy has often been hypothesized to exist for various species, empirical tests providing firm evidence have been rare, mainly due to the challenge in tracking fitness across generations. Here, we take a 'proof of principle' approach to explore whether the reproductive strategy of multiple-batch spawning constitutes a bet-hedging. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study species and parameterized an eco-evolutionary model, using empirical data on size-related reproductive and survival traits. To evaluate the fitness benefits of multiple-batch spawning (within a single breeding period), the mechanistic model separately simulated multiple-batch and single-batch spawning populations under temporally varying environments. We followed the arithmetic and geometric mean fitness associated with both strategies and quantified the mean changes in fitness under several environmental stochasticity levels. We found that, by spreading the environmental risk among batches, multiple-batch spawning increases fitness under fluctuating environmental conditions. The multiple-batch spawning trait is, thus, advantageous and acts as a bet-hedging strategy when the environment is exceptionally unpredictable. Our research identifies an analytically flexible, stochastic, life-history modelling approach to explore the fitness consequences of a risk-spreading strategy and elucidates the importance of evolutionary applications to life-history diversity.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

Predictability of temporal variation in climate and the evolution of seasonal polyphenism in tropical butterfly communities

Phenotypic plasticity in heterogeneous environments can provide tight environment-phenotype matching. However, the prerequisite is a reliable environmental cue(s) that enables organisms to use current environmental information to induce the development of a phenotype with high fitness in a forthcoming environment. Here, we quantify predictability in the timing of precipitation and temperature change to examine how this is associated with seasonal polyphenism in tropical Mycalesina butterflies. Seasonal precipitation in the tropics typically results in distinct selective environments, the wet and dry seasons, and changes in temperature can be a major environmental cue. We sampled communities of Mycalesina butterflies from two seasonal locations and one aseasonal location. Quantifying environmental predictability using wavelet analysis and Colwell's indices confirmed a strong periodicity of precipitation over a 12-month period at both seasonal locations compared to the aseasonal one. However, temperature seasonality and periodicity differed between the two seasonal locations. We further show that: (a) most females from both seasonal locations synchronize their reproduction with the seasons by breeding in the wet season but arresting reproduction in the dry season. In contrast, all species breed throughout the year in the aseasonal location and (b) species from the seasonal locations, but not those from the aseasonal location, exhibited polyphenism in wing pattern traits (eyespot size). We conclude that seasonal precipitation and its predictability are primary factors shaping the evolution of polyphenism in Mycalesina butterflies, and populations or species secondarily evolve local adaptations for cue use that depend on the local variation in the environment.

Is There More to Within-plant Variation in Seed Size than Developmental Noise?

Within-plant variation in seed size may merely reflect developmental instability, or it may be adaptive in facilitating diversifying bet-hedging, that is, production of phenotypically diverse offspring when future environments are unpredictable. To test the latter hypothesis, we analyzed patterns of variation in seed size in 11 populations of the perennial vine Dalechampia scandens grown in a common greenhouse environment. We tested whether population differences in the mean and variation of seed size covaried with environmental predictability at two different timescales. We also tested whether within-plant variation in seed size was correlated with independent measures of floral developmental instability and increased under stressful conditions. Populations differed genetically in the amount of seed-size variation occurring among plants, among infructescences within plants, and among seeds within infructescences. Within-individual variation was not detectably correlated with measures of developmental instability and did not increase under stress, but it increased weakly with short-term environmental unpredictability of precipitation at the source-population site. These results support the hypothesis that greater variation in seed size is adaptive when environmental predictability is low.

The evolution of social learning as phenotypic cue integration

Most analyses of the origins of cultural evolution focus on when and where social learning prevails over individual learning, overlooking the fact that there are other developmental inputs that influence phenotypic fit to the selective environment. This raises the question of how the presence of other cue 'channels' affects the scope for social learning. Here, we present a model that considers the simultaneous evolution of (i) multiple forms of social learning (involving vertical or horizontal learning based on either prestige or conformity biases) within the broader context of other evolving inputs on phenotype determination, including (ii) heritable epigenetic factors, (iii) individual learning, (iv) environmental and cascading maternal effects, (v) conservative bet-hedging, and (vi) genetic cues. In fluctuating environments that are autocorrelated (and hence predictable), we find that social learning from members of the same generation (horizontal social learning) explains the large majority of phenotypic variation, whereas other cues are much less important. Moreover, social learning based on prestige biases typically prevails in positively autocorrelated environments, whereas conformity biases prevail in negatively autocorrelated environments. Only when environments are unpredictable or horizontal social learning is characterized by an intrinsically low information content, other cues such as conservative bet-hedging or vertical prestige biases prevail. This article is part of the theme issue 'Foundations of cultural evolution'.

Predicting population genetic change in an autocorrelated random environment: Insights from a large automated experiment

Most natural environments exhibit a substantial component of random variation, with a degree of temporal autocorrelation that defines the color of environmental noise. Such environmental fluctuations cause random fluctuations in natural selection, affecting the predictability of evolution. But despite long-standing theoretical interest in population genetics in stochastic environments, there is a dearth of empirical estimation of underlying parameters of this theory. More importantly, it is still an open question whether evolution in fluctuating environments can be predicted indirectly using simpler measures, which combine environmental time series with population estimates in constant environments. Here we address these questions by using an automated experimental evolution approach. We used a liquid-handling robot to expose over a hundred lines of the micro-alga Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity over a continuous range, with controlled mean, variance, and autocorrelation. We then tracked the frequencies of two competing strains through amplicon sequencing of nuclear and choloroplastic barcode sequences. We show that the magnitude of environmental fluctuations (determined by their variance), but also their predictability (determined by their autocorrelation), had large impacts on the average selection coefficient. The variance in frequency change, which quantifies randomness in population genetics, was substantially higher in a fluctuating environment. The reaction norm of selection coefficients against constant salinity yielded accurate predictions for the mean selection coefficient in a fluctuating environment. This selection reaction norm was in turn well predicted by environmental tolerance curves, with population growth rate against salinity. However, both the selection reaction norm and tolerance curves underestimated the variance in selection caused by random environmental fluctuations. Overall, our results provide exceptional insights into the prospects for understanding and predicting genetic evolution in randomly fluctuating environments.

Being able to predict evolution under natural selection is important for many applied fields of biology, ranging from agriculture to medicine or conservation. However, this endeavor is complicated by factors that inherently limit our ability to predict the future, such as random fluctuations in the environment. Population genetic theory indicates that probabilistic predictions can still be made in this context, but the extent to which this holds empirically, and whether these predictions can be based on simple measurements, are still open questions. Making progress on answering these questions can be achieved by capitalizing on experiments where the environment is precisely controlled over many generations. Here, we used a pipetting robot to generate random time series of salinities with controlled patterns of fluctuations, which we imposed on a microalga, Dunaliella salina. Tracking the frequencies of two genotypes in a mixture by sequencing two short barcode sequences, we were able to show how patterns of fluctuating selection relate to the fluctuating environment. Interestingly, parts of these responses, but not all, could be predicted by simpler measurements in constant environments, allowing precise characterization the limits and prospects for predicting evolution in fluctuating environments.

Variation in developmental rates is not linked to environmental unpredictability in annual killifishes

Comparative evidence suggests that adaptive plasticity may evolve as a response to predictable environmental variation. However, less attention has been placed on unpredictable environmental variation, which is considered to affect evolutionary trajectories by increasing phenotypic variation (or bet hedging). Here, we examine the occurrence of bet hedging in egg developmental rates in seven species of annual killifish that originate from a gradient of variation in precipitation rates, under three treatment incubation temperatures (21, 23, and 25°C). In the wild, these species survive regular and seasonal habitat desiccation, as dormant eggs buried in the soil. At the onset of the rainy season, embryos must be sufficiently developed in order to hatch and complete their life cycle. We found substantial differences among species in both the mean and variation of egg development rates, as well as species-specific plastic responses to incubation temperature. Yet, there was no clear relationship between variation in egg development time and variation in precipitation rate (environmental predictability). The exact cause of these differences therefore remains enigmatic, possibly depending on differences in other natural environmental conditions in addition to precipitation predictability. Hence, if species-specific variances are adaptive, the relationship between development and variation in precipitation is complex and does not diverge in accordance with simple linear relationships.

Individual reversible plasticity as a genotype-level bet-hedging strategy

Reversible plasticity in phenotypic traits allows organisms to cope with environmental variation within lifetimes, but costs of plasticity may limit just how well the phenotype matches the environmental optimum. An additional adaptive advantage of plasticity might be to reduce fitness variance, in other words: bet-hedging to maximize geometric (rather than simply arithmetic) mean fitness. Here, we model the evolution of plasticity in the form of reaction norm slopes, with increasing costs as the slope or degree of plasticity increases. We find that greater investment in plasticity (i.e. a steeper reaction norm slope) is favoured in scenarios promoting bet-hedging as a response to multiplicative fitness accumulation (i.e. coarser environmental grains and fewer time steps prior to reproduction), because plasticity lowers fitness variance across environmental conditions. In contrast, in scenarios with finer environmental grain and many time steps prior to reproduction, bet-hedging plays less of a role and individual-level optimization favours evolution of shallower reaction norm slopes. However, the opposite pattern holds if plasticity costs themselves result in increased fitness variation, as might be the case for production costs of plasticity that depend on how much change is made to the phenotype each time step. We discuss these contrasting predictions from this partitioning of adaptive plasticity into short-term individual benefits versus long-term genotypic (bet-hedging) benefits, and how this approach enhances our understanding of the evolution of optimum levels of plasticity in examples from thermal physiology to advances in avian lay dates.

Asymmetric Evolvability Leads to Specialization without Trade-Offs

AbstractMany organisms are specialized, and these narrow niches are often explained with trade-offs-the inability for one organism to express maximal performance in two or more environments. However, evidence is lacking that trade-offs are sufficient to explain specialists. Several lines of theoretical inquiry suggest that populations can specialize without explicit trade-offs, as a result of relaxed selection in generalists for their performance in rare environments. Here, I synthesize and extend these approaches, showing that emergent asymmetries in evolvability can push a population toward specialization in the absence of trade-offs and in the presence of substantial ecological costs of specialism. Simulations are used to demonstrate how adaptation to a more common environment interferes with adaptation to a less common but otherwise equal alternative environment and that this interference is greatly exacerbated at low recombination rates. This adaptive process of specialization can effectively trap populations in a suboptimal niche. These modeling results predict that transient differences in evolvability across traits during a single episode of adaptation could have long-term consequences for a population's niche.

Evolutionary bet-hedging in structured populations

As ecosystems evolve, species can become extinct due to fluctuations in the environment. This leads to the evolutionary adaption known as bet-hedging, where species hedge against these fluctuations to reduce their likelihood of extinction. Environmental variation can be either within or between generations. Previous work has shown that selection for bet-hedging against within-generational variation should not occur in large populations. However, this work has been limited by assumptions of well-mixed populations, whereas real populations usually have some degree of structure. Using the framework of evolutionary graph theory, we show that through adding competition structure to the population, within-generational variation can have a significant impact on the evolutionary process for any population size. This complements research using subdivided populations, which suggests that within-generational variation is important when local population sizes are small. Together, these conclusions provide evidence to support observations by some ecologists that are contrary to the widely held view that only between-generational environmental variation has an impact on natural selection. This provides theoretical justification for further empirical study into this largely unexplored area.

Magnitude and Predictability of pH Fluctuations Shape Plastic Responses to Ocean Acidification

AbstractPhenotypic plasticity is expected to facilitate the persistence of natural populations as global change progresses. The attributes of fluctuating environments that favor the evolution of plasticity have received extensive theoretical investigation, yet empirical validation of these findings is still in its infancy. Here, we combine high-resolution environmental data with a laboratory-based experiment to explore the influence of habitat pH fluctuation dynamics on the plasticity of gene expression in two populations of the Mediterranean mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis. We linked differences in the magnitude and predictability of pH fluctuations in two habitats to population-specific gene expression profiles in ambient and stressful pH treatments. Our results demonstrate population-based differentiation in gene expression plasticity, whereby mussels native to a habitat exhibiting a large magnitude of pH fluctuations with low predictability display reduced phenotypic plasticity between experimentally imposed pH treatments. This work validates recent theoretical findings on evolution in fluctuating environments, suggesting that the predictability of fluctuating selection pressures may play a predominant role in shaping the phenotypic variation observed across natural populations.

A population-genomic approach for estimating selection on polygenic traits in heterogeneous environments

Strong selection can cause rapid evolutionary change, but temporal fluctuations in the form, direction and intensity of selection can limit net evolutionary change over longer time periods. Fluctuating selection could affect molecular diversity levels and the evolution of plasticity and ecological specialization. Nonetheless, this phenomenon remains understudied, in part because of analytical limitations and the general difficulty of detecting selection that does not occur in a consistent manner. Herein, I fill this analytical gap by presenting an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method to detect and quantify fluctuating selection on polygenic traits from population genomic time-series data. I propose a model for environment-dependent phenotypic selection. The evolutionary genetic consequences of selection are then modelled based on a genotype-phenotype map. Using simulations, I show that the proposed method generates accurate and precise estimates of selection when the generative model for the data is similar to the model assumed by the method. The performance of the method when applied to an evolve-and-resequence study of host adaptation in the cowpea seed beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus) was more idiosyncratic and depended on specific analytical choices. Despite some limitations, these results suggest the proposed method provides a powerful approach to connect the causes of (variable) selection to traits and genome-wide patterns of evolution. Documentation and open-source computer software (fsabc) implementing this method are available from github (https://github.com/zgompert/fsabc.git).

Dealing with predictable and unpredictable temperatures in a climate change context: the case of parasitoids and their hosts

The Earth's climate is changing at a rapid pace. To survive in increasingly fluctuating and unpredictable environments, species can either migrate or evolve through rapid local adaptation, plasticity and/or bet-hedging. For small ectotherm insects, like parasitoids and their hosts, phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging could be critical strategies for population and species persistence in response to immediate, intense and unpredictable temperature changes. Here, we focus on studies evaluating phenotypic responses to variable predictable thermal conditions (for which phenotypic plasticity is favoured) and unpredictable thermal environments (for which bet-hedging is favoured), both within and between host and parasitoid generations. We then address the effects of fluctuating temperatures on host-parasitoid interactions, potential cascading effects on the food web, as well as biological control services. We conclude our review by proposing a road map for designing experiments to assess if plasticity and bet-hedging can be adaptive strategies, and to disentangle how fluctuating temperatures can affect the evolution of these two strategies in parasitoids and their hosts.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Transgenerational Plasticity and Bet-Hedging: A Framework for Reaction Norm Evolution

Decision-making under uncertain conditions favors bet-hedging (avoidance of fitness variance), whereas predictable environments favor phenotypic plasticity. However, entirely predictable or entirely unpredictable conditions are rarely found in nature. Intermediate strategies are required when the time lag between information sensing and phenotype induction is large (e.g., transgenerational plasticity) and when cues are only partially predictive of future conditions. Nevertheless, current theory regards plasticity and bet-hedging as distinct entities. We here develop a unifying framework: based on traits with binary outcomes like seed germination or diapause incidence we clarify that diversified bet-hedging (risk-spreading among one’s offspring) and transgenerational plasticity are mutually exclusive strategies, arising from opposing changes in reaction norms (allocating phenotypic variance among or within environments). We further explain the relationship of this continuum with arithmetic mean maximization vs. conservative bet-hedging (a risk-avoidance strategy), and canalization vs. phenotypic variance in a three-dimensional continuum of reaction norm evolution. We discuss under which scenarios costs and limits may constrain the evolution of reaction norm shapes.

Genetic differentiation underlies seasonal variation in thermal tolerance, body size, and plasticity in a short-lived copepod

Organisms experience variation in the thermal environment on several different temporal scales, with seasonality being particularly prominent in temperate regions. For organisms with short generation times, seasonal variation is experienced across, rather than within, generations. How this affects the seasonal evolution of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity is understudied, but has direct implications for the thermal ecology of these organisms. Here we document intra-annual patterns of thermal tolerance in two species of Acartia copepods (Crustacea) from a highly seasonal estuary, showing strong variation across the annual temperature cycle. Common garden, split-brood experiments indicate that this seasonal variation in thermal tolerance, along with seasonal variation in body size and phenotypic plasticity, is likely affected by genetic polymorphism. Our results show that adaptation to seasonal variation is important to consider when predicting how populations may respond to ongoing climate change.

Phenotypic noise and the cost of complexity

Experimental studies demonstrate the existence of phenotypic diversity despite constant genotype and environment. Theoretical models based on a single phenotypic character predict that during an adaptation event, phenotypic noise should be positively selected far from the fitness optimum because it increases the fitness of the genotype, and then be selected against when the population reaches the optimum. It is suggested that because of this fitness gain, phenotypic noise should promote adaptive evolution. However, it is unclear how the selective advantage of phenotypic noise is linked to the rate of evolution, and whether any advantage would hold for more realistic, multidimensional phenotypes. Indeed, complex organisms suffer a cost of complexity, where beneficial mutations become rarer as the number of phenotypic characters increases. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we first show that for a one-dimensional phenotype, phenotypic noise promotes adaptive evolution on plateaus of positive fitness, independently from the direct selective advantage on fitness. Second, we show that for multidimensional phenotypes, phenotypic noise evolves to a low-dimensional configuration, with elevated noise in the direction of the fitness optimum. Such a dimensionality reduction of the phenotypic noise promotes adaptive evolution and numerical simulations show that it reduces the cost of complexity.

Reduced phenotypic plasticity evolves in less predictable environments

Phenotypic plasticity is a prominent mechanism for coping with variable environments, and a key determinant of extinction risk. Evolutionary theory predicts that phenotypic plasticity should evolve to lower levels in environments that fluctuate less predictably, because they induce mismatches between plastic responses and selective pressures. However, this prediction is difficult to test in nature, where environmental predictability is not controlled. Here, we exposed 32 lines of the halotolerant microalga Dunaliella salina to ecologically realistic, randomly fluctuating salinity, with varying levels of predictability, for 500 generations. We found that morphological plasticity evolved to lower degrees in lines that experienced less predictable environments. Evolution of plasticity mostly concerned phases with slow population growth, rather than the exponential phase where microbes are typically phenotyped. This study underlines that long‐term experiments with complex patterns of environmental change are needed to test theories about population responses to altered environmental predictability, as currently observed under climate change.

Phenotypic evolution in stochastic environments: The contribution of frequency- and density-dependent selection

Understanding how environmental variation affects phenotypic evolution requires models based on ecologically realistic assumptions that include variation in population size and specific mechanisms by which environmental fluctuations affect selection. Here we generalize quantitative genetic theory for environmentally induced stochastic selection to include general forms of frequency- and density-dependent selection. We show how the relevant fitness measure under stochastic selection relates to Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, and present a general class of models in which density regulation acts through total use of resources rather than just population size. In this model, there is a constant adaptive topography for expected evolution, and the function maximized in the long run is the expected factor restricting population growth. This allows us to generalize several previous results and to explain why apparently " K -selected" species with slow life histories often have low carrying capacities. Our joint analysis of density- and frequency-dependent selection reveals more clearly the relationship between population dynamics and phenotypic evolution, enabling a broader range of eco-evolutionary analyses of some of the most interesting problems in evolution in the face of environmental variation.