Evolutionary impact assessment: accounting for evolutionary consequences of fishing in an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

The impact of harvesting on the evolutionary dynamics of prey species in a prey-predator systems

Matsuda and Abrams (Theor Popul Biol 45(1):76-91, 1994) initiated the exploration of self-extinction in species through evolution, focusing on the advantageous position of mutants near the extinction boundary in a prey-predator system with evolving foraging traits. Previous models lacked theoretical investigation into the long-term effects of harvesting. In our model, we introduce constant-effort prey and predator harvesting, along with individual logistic growth of predators. The model reveals two distinct evolutionary outcomes: (i) Evolutionary suicide, marked by a saddle-node bifurcation, where prey extinction results from the invasion of a lower forager mutant; and (ii) Evolutionary reversal, characterized by a subcritical Hopf bifurcation, leading to cyclic prey evolution. Employing an innovative approach based on Gröbner basis computation, we identify various bifurcation manifolds, including fold, transcritical, cusp, Hopf, and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations. These contrasting scenarios emerge from variations in harvesting parameters while keeping other factors constant, rendering the model an intriguing subject of study.

A link between evolution and society fostering the UN sustainable development goals

Given the multitude of challenges Earth is facing, sustainability science is of key importance to our continued existence. Evolution is the fundamental biological process underlying the origin of all biodiversity. This phylogenetic diversity fosters the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change, and provides numerous resources to society, and options for the future. Genetic diversity within species is also key to the ability of populations to evolve and adapt to environmental change. Yet, the value of evolutionary processes and the consequences of their impairment have not generally been considered in sustainability research. We argue that biological evolution is important for sustainability and that the concepts, theory, data, and methodological approaches used in evolutionary biology can, in crucial ways, contribute to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We discuss how evolutionary principles are relevant to understanding, maintaining, and improving Nature Contributions to People (NCP) and how they contribute to the SDGs. We highlight specific applications of evolution, evolutionary theory, and evolutionary biology's diverse toolbox, grouped into four major routes through which evolution and evolutionary insights can impact sustainability. We argue that information on both within-species evolutionary potential and among-species phylogenetic diversity is necessary to predict population, community, and ecosystem responses to global change and to make informed decisions on sustainable production, health, and well-being. We provide examples of how evolutionary insights and the tools developed by evolutionary biology can not only inspire and enhance progress on the trajectory to sustainability, but also highlight some obstacles that hitherto seem to have impeded an efficient uptake of evolutionary insights in sustainability research and actions to sustain SDGs. We call for enhanced collaboration between sustainability science and evolutionary biology to understand how integrating these disciplines can help achieve the sustainable future envisioned by the UN SDGs.

Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Environmental forcing alters fisheries selection

Fishing-induced evolution (FIE) threatens the ecology, resilience, and economic value of fish populations. Traits under selection, and mechanisms of selection, can be influenced by abiotic and biotic perturbations, yet this has been overlooked. Here, we present the fishery selection continuum, where selection ranges from rigid fisheries selection to flexible fisheries selection. We provide examples on how FIE may function along this continuum, and identify selective processes that should be considered less or more flexible. We also introduce fishery reaction norms, which serve to conceptualise how selection from fishing may function in a dynamic context. Ultimately, we suggest an integrative approach to studying FIE that considers the environmental conditions in which it functions.

Different mechanisms underpin the decline in growth of anchovies and sardines of the Bay of Biscay

Declines in individuals' growth in exploited fish species are generally attributed to evolutionary consequences of size-selective fishing or to plastic responses due to constraints set by changing environmental conditions dampening individuals' growth. However, other processes such as growth compensation and non-directional selection can occur and their importance on the overall phenotypic response of exploited populations has largely been ignored. Using otolith growth data collected in European anchovy and sardine of the Bay of Biscay (18 cohorts from 2000 to 2018), we parameterized the breeder's equation to determine whether declines in size-at-age in these species were due to an adaptive response (i.e. related to directional or non-directional selection differentials within parental cohorts) or a plastic response (i.e. related to changes in environmental). We found that growth at age-0 in anchovy declined between parents and their offspring when biomass increased and the selective disappearance of large individuals was high in parents. Therefore, an adaptive response probably occurred in years with high fishing effort and the large increase in biomass after the collapse of this stock maintained this adaptive response subsequently. In sardine offspring, higher growth at age-0 was associated with increasing biomass between parents and offspring, suggesting a plastic response to a bottom-up process (i.e. a change in food quantity or quality). Parental cohorts in which selection favoured individuals with high growth compensation produced offspring high catch up growth rates, which may explain the smaller decline in growth in sardine relative to anchovy. Finally, on non-directional selection differentials were not significantly related to the changes in growth at age-0 and growth compensation at age-1 in both species. Although anchovy and sardine have similar ecologies, the mechanisms underlying the declines in their growth are clearly different. The consequences of the exploitation of natural populations could be long lasting if density-dependent processes follow adaptive changes.

An evolutionary explanation of female-biased sexual size dimorphism in North Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is caused by differences in selection pressures and life-history trade-offs faced by males and females. Proximate causes of SSD may involve sex-specific mortality, energy acquisition, and energy expenditure for maintenance, reproductive tissues, and reproductive behavior. Using a quantitative, individual-based, eco-genetic model parameterized for North Sea plaice, we explore the importance of these mechanisms for female-biased SSD, under which males are smaller and reach sexual maturity earlier than females (common among fish, but also arising in arthropods and mammals). We consider two mechanisms potentially serving as ultimate causes: (a) Male investments in male reproductive behavior might evolve to detract energy resources that would otherwise be available for somatic growth, and (b) diminishing returns on male reproductive investments might evolve to reduce energy acquisition. In general, both of these can bring about smaller male body sizes. We report the following findings. First, higher investments in male reproductive behavior alone cannot explain the North Sea plaice SSD. This is because such higher reproductive investments require increased energy acquisition, which would cause a delay in maturation, leading to male-biased SSD contrary to observations. When accounting for the observed differential (lower) male mortality, maturation is postponed even further, leading to even larger males. Second, diminishing returns on male reproductive investments alone can qualitatively account for the North Sea plaice SSD, even though the quantitative match is imperfect. Third, both mechanisms can be reconciled with, and thus provide a mechanistic basis for, the previously advanced Ghiselin-Reiss hypothesis, according to which smaller males will evolve if their reproductive success is dominated by scramble competition for fertilizing females, as males would consequently invest more in reproduction than growth, potentially implying lower survival rates, and thus relaxing male-male competition. Fourth, a good quantitative fit with the North Sea plaice SSD is achieved by combining both mechanisms while accounting for sex-specific costs males incur during their spawning season. Fifth, evolution caused by fishing is likely to have modified the North Sea plaice SSD.

The Effects of Selective Harvest on Japanese Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) Phenotypic Evolution

Japanese Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus niphonius) is an important fish species in the China Seas with wide distribution, extensive migration, and high economic value. This species has been yielding high fisheries production despite experiencing continuously high fishing pressure and the conversion from gillnet to trawl harvesting. Meanwhile, changes in life-history traits have been observed, including earlier maturation and smaller size at age. Here, we build an individual-based eco-genetic model parameterized for Japanese Spanish mackerel to investigate the population’s response to different fishing scenarios (fishing by trawl or by gillnet). The model allows evolution of life-history processes including maturation, reproduction and growth. It also incorporates environmental variability, phenotypic plasticity, and density-dependent feedbacks. Our results show that different gear types can result in different responses of life-history traits and altered population dynamics. The population harvested by gillnet shows weaker response to fishing than that by trawl. When fishing ceases, gillnet-harvested population can recover to the pre-harvest level more easily than that harvested by trawl. The different responses of population growth rate and evolution to different fishing gears demonstrated in this study shed light on the sustainable management and utilization of Japanese Spanish mackerel in the over-exploited China Seas.

Pathways between Climate, Fish, Fisheries, and Management: A Conceptual Integrated Ecosystem Management Approach

The abundance and distribution of marine fishes is influenced by environmental conditions, predator–prey relationships, multispecies interactions, and direct human impacts, such as fishing. The adaptive response of the system depends on its structure and the pathways that link environmental factors to the taxon in question. The “Star Diagram” is a socio-ecological model of marine ecosystems that depicts the general pathways between climate, fish, and fisheries, and their intersection with climate policy and resource management. We illustrate its use by identifying the key factors, pathways and drivers that influence walleye pollock, crab, and sockeye salmon, under a warming scenario on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. This approach predicts that all three species will see reduced populations under a long-term warming scenario. Going forward, the challenge to managers is to balance the magnitude of the effect of harvest and the adaptability of their management system, with the scale and degree of resilience and the behavioral, physiological, or evolutionary adaptation of the ecosystem and its constituents. The Star Diagram provides a novel conceptual construct that managers can use to visualize and integrate the various aspects of the system into a holistic, socio-ecological management framework.

Marine food web perspective to fisheries-induced evolution

Fisheries exploitation can cause genetic changes in heritable traits of targeted stocks. The direction of selective pressure forced by harvest acts typically in reverse to natural selection and selects for explicit life histories, usually for younger and smaller spawners with deprived spawning potential. While the consequences that such selection might have on the population dynamics of a single species are well emphasized, we are just beginning to perceive the variety and severity of its propagating effects within the entire marine food webs and ecosystems. Here, we highlight the potential pathways in which fisheries-induced evolution, driven by size-selective fishing, might resonate through globally connected systems. We look at: (i) how a size truncation may induce shifts in ecological niches of harvested species, (ii) how a changed maturation schedule might affect the spawning potential and biomass flow, (iii) how changes in life histories can initiate trophic cascades, (iv) how the role of apex predators may be shifting and (v) whether fisheries-induced evolution could codrive species to depletion and biodiversity loss. Globally increasing effective fishing effort and the uncertain reversibility of eco-evolutionary change induced by fisheries necessitate further research, discussion and precautionary action considering the impacts of fisheries-induced evolution within marine food webs.

The battle between harvest and natural selection creates small and shy fish

Harvest of fish and wildlife, both commercial and recreational, is a selective force that can induce evolutionary changes to life history and behavior. Naturally selective forces may create countering selection pressures. Assessing natural fitness represents a considerable challenge in broadcast spawners. Thus, our understanding about the relative strength of natural and fisheries selection is slim. In the field, we compared the strength and shape of harvest selection to natural selection on body size over four years and behavior over one year in a natural population of a freshwater top predator, the northern pike (Esox lucius). Natural selection was approximated by relative reproductive success via parent-offspring genetic assignments over four years. Harvest selection was measured by comparing individuals susceptible to recreational angling with individuals never captured by this gear type. Individual behavior was measured by high-resolution acoustic telemetry. Harvest and natural size selection operated with equal strength but opposing directions, and harvest size selection was consistently negative in all study years. Harvest selection also had a substantial behavioral component independent of body length, while natural behavioral selection was not documented, suggesting the potential for directional harvest selection favoring inactive, timid fish. Simulations of the outcomes of different fishing regulations showed that traditional minimum size-based harvest limits are unlikely to counteract harvest selection without being completely restrictive. Our study suggests harvest selection may be inevitable and recreational fisheries may thus favor small, inactive, shy, and difficult-to-capture fish. Increasing fractions of shy fish in angling-exploited stocks would have consequences for stock assessment and all fisheries operating with hook and line.

Fisheries management as a Stackelberg Evolutionary Game: Finding an evolutionarily enlightened strategy

Fish populations subject to heavy exploitation are expected to evolve over time smaller average body sizes. We introduce Stackelberg evolutionary game theory to show how fisheries management should be adjusted to mitigate the potential negative effects of such evolutionary changes. We present the game of a fisheries manager versus a fish population, where the former adjusts the harvesting rate and the net size to maximize profit, while the latter responds by evolving the size at maturation to maximize the fitness. We analyze three strategies: i) ecologically enlightened (leading to a Nash equilibrium in game-theoretic terms); ii) evolutionarily enlightened (leading to a Stackelberg equilibrium) and iii) domestication (leading to team optimum) and the corresponding outcomes for both the fisheries manager and the fish. Domestication results in the largest size for the fish and the highest profit for the manager. With the Nash approach the manager tends to adopt a high harvesting rate and a small net size that eventually leads to smaller fish. With the Stackelberg approach the manager selects a bigger net size and scales back the harvesting rate, which lead to a bigger fish size and a higher profit. Overall, our results encourage managers to take the fish evolutionary dynamics into account. Moreover, we advocate for the use of Stackelberg evolutionary game theory as a tool for providing insights into the eco-evolutionary consequences of exploiting evolving resources.

Unidirectional response to bidirectional selection on body size II. Quantitative genetics

Anticipating the genetic and phenotypic changes induced by natural or artificial selection requires reliable estimates of trait evolvabilities (genetic variances and covariances). However, whether or not multivariate quantitative genetics models are able to predict precisely the evolution of traits of interest, especially fitness-related, life history traits, remains an open empirical question. Here, we assessed to what extent the response to bivariate artificial selection on both body size and maturity in the medaka Oryzias latipes, a model fish species, fits the theoretical predictions. Three lines (Large, Small, and Control lines) were differentially selected for body length at 75 days of age, conditional on maturity. As maturity and body size were phenotypically correlated, this selection procedure generated a bi-dimensional selection pattern on two life history traits. After removal of nonheritable trends and noise with a random effect ("animal") model, the observed selection response did not match the expected bidirectional response. For body size, Large and Control lines responded along selection gradients (larger body size and stasis, respectively), but, surprisingly, the Small did not evolve a smaller body length and remained identical to the Control line throughout the experiment. The magnitude of the empirical response was smaller than the theoretical prediction in both selected directions. For maturity, the response was opposite to the expectation (the Large line evolved late maturity compared to the Control line, while the Small line evolved early maturity, while the opposite pattern was predicted due to the strong positive genetic correlation between both traits). The mismatch between predicted and observed response was substantial and could not be explained by usual sources of uncertainties (including sampling effects, genetic drift, and error in G matrix estimates).

Behavioral phenotype does not predict habitat occupancy or angling capture of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides)

Fish behavior types can predict angling vulnerability, providing insights about how recreational fishing may lead to artificial trait selection. Most vulnerability studies have focused on species with active foraging strategies, and the impact of environmental conditions on vulnerability has not been quantified. The objective of this study was to determine the influences of behavior types and habitat on angling vulnerability of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides (Lacepède, 1802)) — a sit-and-wait predator. Behavior assays quantified individual activity and boldness, then experimental angling took place in ponds with two habitat treatments: (1) structured habitat with artificial structures present and (2) open habitat with no structures added. Two anglers determined which individual largemouth bass were vulnerable to capture across the two contexts. In contrast with previous studies involving active foragers, behavior types of largemouth bass did not influence capture, regardless of habitat type. The number of captures also did not differ between structured and open habitat. However, anglers captured fish with different behavioral phenotypes, revealing additional complexity for factors that may affect behavioral selection. Findings suggest that angling may not be selecting for specific activity or boldness phenotypes of largemouth bass, even across habitat types, but that anglers may influence selection.

Food deprived largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) are inactive and stressed, but do not show changes in lure inspections

Coping style traits, including physiology and behavior, can be used to predict if fish are vulnerable to capture by hook-and-line angling. Typically, fish with proactive coping styles are selectively captured, but effects of environmental influences, such as food availability, on the completion of each step leading to a successful angling capture (i.e., activity rates, encountering a lure, lure inspection, lure-striking, and ingestion) have not been quantified. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify the effects among activity behavior, stress (cortisol) responsiveness, and food availability on lure inspection behaviors of largemouth bass. No relationships were found between activity, stress responsiveness, and food availability to determine lure inspections. However, food deprivation decreased activity rates and increased baseline cortisol concentrations of largemouth bass. Additionally, after feeding treatments, fish with low baseline cortisol concentrations were more likely to inspect lures in both the fed and food deprived treatments. Results further discuss the implications of study findings to help fisheries managers predict the evolutionary impacts of angling.

The pros and cons of the invasive freshwater apex predator, European catfish Silurus glanis, and powerful angling technique for its population control

Catfish have spread across Europe and several countries out of this region within the last decades. Basic knowledge of this apex predator has revealed concerns of invasive behaviour and questions regarding its utilization as a biomanipulation species. However, a method enabling its regulation to a required level has not yet been developed. We simulated the impact of angling on the catfish population by method of hook-lines in two post-mining lakes with a monitored population consisting of tagged individuals and in two reservoirs as reference sites. Further, the efficiency of hook-lines as a reducing device was examined and the economic aspects were determined. Catfish population in localities where the species is unwanted or invasive may be efficiently reduced to a harmless level by hook-lines and angling (depending on the approach of anglers). The most efficient time of the year seems to be spring to early summer with catch efficiency of 5.4 individuals per 10 baits in one day. The catch efficiency markedly decreased during the second part of the year and did not exceed 2.8 individuals per 10 baits in one day. Mean size of catfish had negative impact whereas catfish biomass had positive impact on the catch efficiency. Trophic status and number of catfish in the locality had no impact on the catch efficiency. According to model, 11-18 bait-days per 1 ha per season is efficient to decrease catfish population to 10% of the original size. Both angling and hook-lines are very simple, they are financially and time bearable mechanisms of catfish regulation in any condition. However, catfish play an important role as a biomanipulative species in many localities. In this case where catfish is beneficial, angling presents a real threat of population collapse and loss of the biomanipulative effect.

Shoal familiarity modulates effects of individual metabolism on vulnerability to capture by trawling

Impacts of fisheries-induced evolution may extend beyond life history traits to more cryptic aspects of biology, such as behaviour and physiology. Understanding roles of physiological traits in determining individual susceptibility to capture in fishing gears and how these mechanisms change across contexts is essential to evaluate the capacity of commercial fisheries to elicit phenotypic change in exploited populations. Previous work has shown that metabolic traits related to anaerobic swimming may determine individual susceptibility to capture in trawls, with fish exhibiting higher anaerobic performance more likely to evade capture. However, high densities of fish aggregated ahead of a trawl net may exacerbate the role of social interactions in determining an individual fish's behaviour and likelihood of capture, yet the role of social environment in modulating relationships between individual physiological traits and vulnerability to capture in trawls remains unknown. By replicating the final moments of capture in a trawl using shoals of wild minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus), we investigated the role of individual metabolic traits in determining susceptibility to capture among shoals of both familiar and unfamiliar conspecifics. We expected that increased shoal cohesion and conformity of behaviour in shoals of familiar fish would lessen the role of individual metabolic traits in determining susceptibility to capture. However, the opposite pattern was observed, with individual fish exhibiting high anaerobic capacity less vulnerable to capture in the trawl net, but only when tested alongside familiar conspecifics. This pattern is likely due to stronger cohesion within familiar shoals, where maintaining a minimal distance from conspecifics, and thus staying ahead of the net, becomes limited by individual anaerobic swim performance. In contrast, lower shoal cohesion and synchronicity of behaviours within unfamiliar shoals may exacerbate the role of stochastic processes in determining susceptibility to capture, disrupting relationships between individual metabolic traits and vulnerability to capture.

Ecological change alters the evolutionary response to harvest in a freshwater fish

Harvesting can induce rapid evolution in animal populations, yet the role of ecological change in buffering or enhancing that response is poorly understood. Here, we developed an eco-genetic model to examine how ecological changes brought about by two notorious invasive species, zebra and quagga mussels, influence harvest-induced evolution and resilience in a freshwater fish. Our study focused on lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where the species supports valuable commercial and subsistence fisheries, and where the invasion of dreissenid (zebra and quagga) mussels caused drastic shifts in ecosystem productivity. Using our model system, we predicted faster rates of evolution of maturation reaction norms in lake whitefish under pre-invasion ecosystem conditions when growth and recruitment of young to the population were high. Slower growth rates that occurred under post-invasion conditions delayed when fish became vulnerable to the fishery, thus decreasing selection pressure and lessening the evolutionary response to harvest. Fishing with gill nets and traps nets generally selected for early maturation at small sizes, except when fishing at low levels with small mesh gill nets under pre-invasion conditions; in this latter case, evolution of delayed maturation was predicted. Overall, the invasion of dreissenid mussels lessened the evolutionary response to harvest, while also reducing the productivity and commercial yield potential of the stock. These results demonstrate how ecological conditions shape evolutionary outcomes and how invasive species can have a direct effect on evolutionary responses to harvest and sustainability.

Evolutionary effects of fishing gear on foraging behavior and life-history traits

Fishing gears are designed to exploit the natural behaviors of fish, and the concern that fishing may cause evolution of behavioral traits has been receiving increasing attention. The first intuitive expectation is that fishing causes evolution toward reduced boldness because it selectively removes actively foraging individuals due to their higher encounter rate and vulnerability to typical gear. However, life-history theory predicts that fishing, through shortened life span, favors accelerated life histories, potentially leading to increased foraging and its frequent correlate, boldness. Additionally, individuals with accelerated life histories mature younger and at a smaller size and therefore spend more of their life at a smaller size where mortality is higher. This life-history evolution may prohibit increases in risk-taking behavior and boldness, thus selecting for reduced risk-taking and boldness. Here, we aim to clarify which of these three selective patterns ends up being dominant. We study how behavior-selective fishing affects the optimal behavioral and life-history traits using a state-dependent dynamic programming model. Different gear types were modeled as being selective for foraging or hiding/resting individuals along a continuous axis, including unselective fishing. Compared with unselective harvesting, gears targeting hiding/resting individuals led toward evolution of increased foraging rates and elevated natural mortality rate, while targeting foraging individuals led to evolution of decreased foraging rates and lower natural mortality rate. Interestingly, changes were predicted for traits difficult to observe in the wild (natural mortality and behavior) whereas the more regularly observed traits (length-at-age, age at maturity, and reproductive investment) showed only little sensitivity to the behavioral selectivity.

Eco-evolutionary responses to recreational fishing under different harvest regulations

Harvesting alters demography and life histories of exploited populations, and there is mounting evidence that rapid phenotypic changes at the individual level can occur when harvest is intensive. Therefore, recreational fishing is expected to induce both ecological and rapid evolutionary changes in fish populations and consequently requires rigorous management. However, little is known about the coupled demographic and evolutionary consequences of alternative harvest regulations in managed freshwater fisheries. We used a structurally realistic individual-based model and implemented an eco-genetic approach that accounts for microevolution, phenotypic plasticity, adaptive behavior, density-dependent processes, and cryptic mortality sources (illegal harvest and hooking mortality after catch and release). We explored the consequences of a range of harvest regulations, involving different combinations of exploitation intensity and minimum and maximum-length limits, on the eco-evolutionary trajectories of a freshwater fish stock. Our 100-year simulations of size-selective harvest through recreational fishing produced negative demographic and structural changes in the simulated population, but also plastic and evolutionary responses that compensated for such changes and prevented population collapse even under intense fishing pressure and liberal harvest regulations. Fishing-induced demographic and evolutionary changes were driven by the harvest regime, and the strength of responses increased with increasing exploitation intensity and decreasing restriction in length limits. Cryptic mortality strongly amplified the impacts of harvest and might be exerting a selective pressure that opposes that of size-selective harvest. "Slot" limits on harvestable length had overall positive effects but lower than expected ability to buffer harvest impacts. Harvest regulations strongly shape the eco-evolutionary dynamics of exploited fish stocks and thus should be considered in setting management policies. Our findings suggest that plastic and evolutionary responses buffer the demographic impacts of fishing, but intense fishing pressure and liberal harvest regulations may lead to an unstructured, juvenescent population that would put the sustainability of the stock at risk. Our study also indicates that high rates of cryptic mortality may make harvest regulations based on harvest slot limits ineffective.

Fitness consequences of fish circadian behavioural variation in exploited marine environments

The selective properties of fishing that influence behavioural traits have recently gained interest. Recent acoustic tracking experiments have revealed between-individual differences in the circadian behavioural traits of marine free-living fish; these differences are consistent across time and ecological contexts and generate different chronotypes. Here, we hypothesised that the directional selection resulting from fishing influences the wild circadian behavioural variation and affects differently to individuals in the same population differing in certain traits such as awakening time or rest onset time. We developed a spatially explicit social-ecological individual-based model (IBM) to test this hypothesis. The parametrisation of our IBM was fully based on empirical data; which represent a fishery formed by patchily distributed diurnal resident fish that are exploited by a fleet of mobile boats (mostly bottom fisheries). We ran our IBM with and without the observed circadian behavioural variation and estimated selection gradients as a quantitative measure of trait change. Our simulations revealed significant and strong selection gradients against early-riser chronotypes when compared with other behavioural and life-history traits. Significant selection gradients were consistent across a wide range of fishing effort scenarios. Our theoretical findings enhance our understanding of the selective properties of fishing by bridging the gaps among three traditionally separated fields: fisheries science, behavioural ecology and chronobiology. We derive some general predictions from our theoretical findings and outline a list of empirical research needs that are required to further understand the causes and consequences of circadian behavioural variation in marine fish.

Eco-evolutionary Feedbacks from Non-target Species Influence Harvest Yield and Sustainability

Evolution in harvested species has become a major concern for its potential to affect yield, sustainability, and recovery. However, the current singular focus on harvest-mediated evolution in target species overlooks the potential for evolution in non-target members of communities. Here we use an individual-based model to explore the scope and pattern of harvest-mediated evolution at non-target trophic levels and its potential feedbacks on abundance and yield of the harvested species. The model reveals an eco-evolutionary trophic cascade, in which harvest at top trophic levels drives evolution of greater defense or competitiveness at subsequently lower trophic levels, resulting in alternating feedbacks on the abundance and yield of the harvested species. The net abundance and yield effects of these feedbacks depends on the intensity of harvest and attributes of non-target species. Our results provide an impetus and framework to evaluate the role of non-target species evolution in determining fisheries yield and sustainability.

A physiological perspective on fisheries-induced evolution

There is increasing evidence that intense fishing pressure is not only depleting fish stocks but also causing evolutionary changes to fish populations. In particular, body size and fecundity in wild fish populations may be altered in response to the high and often size‐selective mortality exerted by fisheries. While these effects can have serious consequences for the viability of fish populations, there are also a range of traits not directly related to body size which could also affect susceptibility to capture by fishing gears—and therefore fisheries‐induced evolution (FIE)—but which have to date been ignored. For example, overlooked within the context of FIE is the likelihood that variation in physiological traits could make some individuals within species more vulnerable to capture. Specifically, traits related to energy balance (e.g., metabolic rate), swimming performance (e.g., aerobic scope), neuroendocrinology (e.g., stress responsiveness) and sensory physiology (e.g., visual acuity) are especially likely to influence vulnerability to capture through a variety of mechanisms. Selection on these traits could produce major shifts in the physiological traits within populations in response to fishing pressure that are yet to be considered but which could influence population resource requirements, resilience, species’ distributions and responses to environmental change.

Harvest-induced evolution: insights from aquatic and terrestrial systems

Commercial and recreational harvests create selection pressures for fitness-related phenotypic traits that are partly under genetic control. Consequently, harvesting can drive evolution in targeted traits. However, the quantification of harvest-induced evolutionary life history and phenotypic changes is challenging, because both density-dependent feedback and environmental changes may also affect these changes through phenotypic plasticity. Here, we synthesize current knowledge and uncertainties on six key points: (i) whether or not harvest-induced evolution is happening, (ii) whether or not it is beneficial, (iii) how it shapes biological systems, (iv) how it could be avoided, (v) its importance relative to other drivers of phenotypic changes, and (vi) whether or not it should be explicitly accounted for in management. We do this by reviewing findings from aquatic systems exposed to fishing and terrestrial systems targeted by hunting. Evidence from aquatic systems emphasizes evolutionary effects on age and size at maturity, while in terrestrial systems changes are seen in weapon size and date of parturition. We suggest that while harvest-induced evolution is likely to occur and negatively affect populations, the rate of evolutionary changes and their ecological implications can be managed efficiently by simply reducing harvest intensity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Toward a mechanistic understanding of vulnerability to hook-and-line fishing: Boldness as the basic target of angling-induced selection

In passively operated fishing gear, boldness-related behaviors should fundamentally affect the vulnerability of individual fish and thus be under fisheries selection. To test this hypothesis, we used juvenile common-garden reared carp (Cyprinus carpio) within a narrow size range to investigate the mechanistic basis of behavioral selection caused by angling. We focused on one key personality trait (i.e., boldness), measured in groups within ponds, two morphological traits (body shape and head shape), and one life-history trait (juvenile growth capacity) and studied mean standardized selection gradients caused by angling. Carp behavior was highly repeatable within ponds. In the short term, over seven days of fishing, total length, not boldness, was the main predictor of angling vulnerability. However, after 20 days of fishing, boldness turned out to be the main trait under selection, followed by juvenile growth rate, while morphological traits were only weakly related to angling vulnerability. In addition, we found juvenile growth rate to be moderately correlated with boldness. Hence, direct selection on boldness will also induce indirect selection on juvenile growth and vice versa, but given that the two traits are not perfectly correlated, independent evolution of both traits is also possible. Our study is among the first to mechanistically reveal that energy-acquisition-related behaviors, and not growth rate per se, are key factors determining the probability of capture, and hence, behavioral traits appear to be the prime targets of angling selection. We predict an evolutionary response toward increased shyness in intensively angling-exploited fish stocks, possibly causing the emergence of a timidity syndrome.

Interannual variability in reproductive traits of the Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides around the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia

Commercial fisheries data, collected as part of an observer programme and covering the period 1997-2014, were utilized in order to define key reproductive traits and spawning dynamics of the Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides at South Georgia. Multi-year spawning site fidelity of D. eleginoides was revealed through the identification of previously unknown spawning hotspots. Timing of female spawning was shown to have shifted later, leading to a shorter spawning duration. A decrease in length and mass of female and male spawning fish and a reduced number of large spawning fish was found, evidence of a change in size structure of spawning D. eleginoides. During the study period fewer later maturity stage females (including spawning stage) were observed in conjunction with increased proportions of early stage female D. eleginoides. The findings are discussed in the context of reproductive success, with consideration of the possible effects such spawning characteristics and behaviours may have on egg and larval survival. This work presents the first long-term assessment of D. eleginoides spawning dynamics at South Georgia and provides valuable knowledge for both the ecology of the species and for future fisheries management of this commercially important species.

Encountering a bait is necessary but insufficient to explain individual variability in vulnerability to angling in two freshwater benthivorous fish in the wild

Fish personality traits, such as swimming activity, or personality related emergent behavioural properties, such as the degree of space use shown by an individual fish, should affect encounter rates between individual fish and fishing gear. Increased encounters should in turn drive vulnerability to capture by passively operated gears. However, empirical evidence documenting a relationship between activity-based behaviours and vulnerability to capture by passive fishing gear in the wild is limited. Using whole-lake acoustic telemetry, we first documented significant repeatabilities over several months in a suite of encounter rate-associated behaviours (swimming distance, activity space size, time on baited feeding sites, switching frequency among baited feeding sites, distance to the lake bottom) in two recreationally important benthivorous cyprinid species, the common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and tench (Tinca tinca). We then experimentally targeted both species using stationary angling on baited feeding sites. Individual fish regularly visited the angling sites, documenting that the fishes encountered the angling baits. When attempting to explain individual variation in vulnerability as a function of repeatable behavioural traits, we found no evidence of a significant relationship among various encounter-based behaviours and vulnerability to angling for both species. There was also no evidence for size selection or for energetically less conditioned fish to be more vulnerable. The data cumulatively suggest that fine-scale behaviours after encountering a bait (e.g., frequency of bait intake) may be ultimately decisive for determining vulnerability to angling in benthivorous fish. Based on our work, fishing-induced selection on encounter-based behaviours in recreational angling for benthivorous fish in the wild appears unlikely.

Harvest-induced phenotypic selection in an island population of moose, Alces alces

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that human exploitation has frequently led to rapid evolutionary changes in wild populations, yet the mechanisms involved are often poorly understood. Here, we applied a recently developed demographic framework for analyzing selection to data from a 20-year study of a wild population of moose, Alces alces. In this population, a genetic pedigree has been established all the way back to founders. We demonstrate harvest-induced directional selection for delayed birth dates in males and reduced body mass as calf in females. During the study period, birth date was delayed by 0.81 days per year for both sexes, whereas no significant changes occurred in calf body mass. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated that both traits harbored significant additive genetic variance. These results show that selective harvesting can induce strong selection that oppose natural selection. This may cause evolution of less favorable phenotypes that become maladaptive once harvesting ceases.

When Should Harvest Evolution Matter to Population Dynamics?

The potential for evolution to influence fishery sustainability remains a controversial topic. We highlight new modeling research from Dunlop et al. that explores when and how fisheries-induced evolution matters for population dynamics, while also emphasizing transient dynamics in population growth and life history-dependent responses that influence population stability and resiliency.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Understanding the individual to implement the ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management (EAFMs) have emerged as requisite for sustainable use of fisheries resources. At the same time, however, there is a growing recognition of the degree of variation among individuals within a population, as well as the ecological consequences of this variation. Managing resources at an ecosystem level calls on practitioners to consider evolutionary processes, and ample evidence from the realm of fisheries science indicates that anthropogenic disturbance can drive changes in predominant character traits (e.g. size at maturity). Eco-evolutionary theory suggests that human-induced trait change and the modification of selective regimens might contribute to ecosystem dynamics at a similar magnitude to species extirpation, extinction and ecological dysfunction. Given the dynamic interaction between fisheries and target species via harvest and subsequent ecosystem consequences, we argue that individual diversity in genetic, physiological and behavioural traits are important considerations under EAFMs. Here, we examine the role of individual variation in a number of contexts relevant to fisheries management, including the potential ecological effects of rapid trait change. Using select examples, we highlight the extent of phenotypic diversity of individuals, as well as the ecological constraints on such diversity. We conclude that individual phenotypic diversity is a complex phenomenon that needs to be considered in EAFMs, with the ultimate realization that maintaining or increasing individual trait diversity may afford not only species, but also entire ecosystems, with enhanced resilience to environmental perturbations. Put simply, individuals are the foundation from which population- and ecosystem-level traits emerge and are therefore of central importance for the ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management.

From genes to populations: how fisheries-induced evolution alters stock productivity

By removing individuals with certain heritable characteristics such as large body size, harvesting may induce rapid evolutionary change in fish life history. There is controversy, however, as to the prevalence of fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) and to what extent it should be considered as part of sustainable resource management. Recent research has shown that FIE can be difficult to detect and its economic effects might not always be significant. Here, we show how population growth rate (r), a critical factor affecting sustainability and recovery, is affected by FIE through the analysis of a simulation model that demonstrates the link between individual-level genetic processes and stock dynamics. We examine how different levels of evolvability, fishing intensity, and density-dependence interact to influence r in three commercially harvested species: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), and yellow perch (Perca flavescens). We demonstrate that at low harvest levels, evolution has minimal effect on r for all three species. However, at the harvest rates experienced by many fish stocks, evolution increases r and reduces the risk of collapse for cod and whitefish. During the initial stages of a harvest moratorium, a switch occurs, and r becomes reduced as a consequence of evolution. These results explain how evolution increases stock resilience, but also impedes recovery after periods of intense harvesting.

Differences in the metabolic rates of exploited and unexploited fish populations: a signature of recreational fisheries induced evolution?

Non-random mortality associated with commercial and recreational fisheries have the potential to cause evolutionary changes in fish populations. Inland recreational fisheries offer unique opportunities for the study of fisheries induced evolution due to the ability to replicate study systems, limited gene flow among populations, and the existence of unexploited reference populations. Experimental research has demonstrated that angling vulnerability is heritable in Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, and is correlated with elevated resting metabolic rates (RMR) and higher fitness. However, whether such differences are present in wild populations is unclear. This study sought to quantify differences in RMR among replicated exploited and unexploited populations of Largemouth Bass. We collected age-0 Largemouth Bass from two Connecticut drinking water reservoirs unexploited by anglers for almost a century, and two exploited lakes, then transported and reared them in the same pond. Field RMR of individuals from each population was quantified using intermittent-flow respirometry. Individuals from unexploited reservoirs had a significantly higher mean RMR (6%) than individuals from exploited populations. These findings are consistent with expectations derived from artificial selection by angling on Largemouth Bass, suggesting that recreational angling may act as an evolutionary force influencing the metabolic rates of fishes in the wild. Reduced RMR as a result of fisheries induced evolution may have ecosystem level effects on energy demand, and be common in exploited recreational populations globally.

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size.

Performance assessment of two whole-lake acoustic positional telemetry systems--is reality mining of free-ranging aquatic animals technologically possible?

Acoustic positional telemetry systems (APTs) represent a novel approach to study the behaviour of free ranging aquatic animals in the wild at unprecedented detail. System manufactures promise remarkably high temporal and spatial resolution. However, the performance of APTs has rarely been rigorously tested at the level of entire ecosystems. Moreover, the effect of habitat structure on system performance has only been poorly documented. Two APTs were deployed to cover two small lakes and a series of standardized stationary tests were conducted to assess system performance. Furthermore, a number of tow tests were conducted to simulate moving fish. Based on these data, we quantified system performance in terms of data yield, accuracy and precision as a function of structural complexity in relation to vegetation. Mean data yield of the two systems was 40% (Lake1) and 60% (Lake2). Average system accuracy (acc) and precision (prec) were Lake1: acc = 3.1 m, prec = 1.1 m; Lake2: acc = 1.0 m, prec = 0.2 m. System performance was negatively affected by structural complexity, i.e., open water habitats yielded far better performance than structurally complex vegetated habitats. Post-processing greatly improved data quality, and sub-meter accuracy and precision were, on average, regularly achieved in Lake2 but remained the exception in the larger and structurally more complex Lake1. Moving transmitters were tracked well by both systems. Whereas overestimation of moved distance is inevitable for stationary transmitters due to accumulation of small tracking errors, moving transmitters can result in both over- and underestimation of distances depending on circumstances. Both deployed APTs were capable of providing high resolution positional data at the scale of entire lakes and are suitable systems to mine the reality of free ranging fish in their natural environment. This opens important opportunities to advance several fields of study such as movement ecology and animal social networks in the wild. It is recommended that thorough performance tests are conducted in any study utilizing APTs. The APTs tested here appear best suited for studies in structurally simple ecosystems or for studying pelagic species. In such situations, the data quality provided by the APTs is exceptionally high.

Commercial fish species of inland waters: a model for sustainability assessment and management

The permanent increase in the exploitation of commercial fish species has led to the need for developing practical and effective tools for the sustainability assessment and management of the target fish populations. The aim of this study was to formulate an ESHIPPOfishing model which would provide a reliable assessment of commercial fish population sustainability and indicate the conservation priorities. The existing ESHIPPO model was modified by introducing a new Index of local sustainability of fish populations (ILSFP) which enables the selection of "keystone populations" and "keystone habitats/ecosystems" within the basin being investigated. We employed a self-organizing map (SOM) in order to visualize the spatial distribution of the keystone populations and keystone habitats/ecosystems for each fish species. Based on the ILSFP values, environmental specialization (ES) of a fish species and local environmental factors (HIPPO factors), the model estimates the degree of sustainability (DS) of commercial fish populations in the freshwater ecosystems of the western Balkan Peninsula. The results indicate a low degree of sustainability for the majority of commercial fish species of the Middle Danube Basin, especially Acipenser ruthenus and Hucho hucho. The ESHIPPOfishing model presents a cost effective conservation approach, formulated to be applicable to any kind of river basin. The application of the ESHIPPOfishing model provides a comprehensive insight into the viability of target fish populations, which would not only further improve the selection of conservation priorities, but also facilitate the management of aquatic ecosystems.

Evolutionary consequences of nonselective harvesting in density-dependent populations

There is now considerable empirical evidence that evolutionary changes in many phenotypic characters, such as body mass, age at maturation, and timing of breeding, often occur in populations subject to intense harvesting over longer periods. Here, we analyze the evolutionary component of the selection due to nonselective harvesting, which will operate even under selective harvesting and may generate a large evolutionary response. If phenotype affects susceptibility to density dependence-for example, through resource limitation-then nonselective harvesting can induce evolutionary change through its effect on population density. We provide a model for evolution of a quantitative character in such a fluctuating density-dependent population, using the diffusion approximation to describe jointly the temporal changes in mean phenotype and log population size. We show how nonselective harvesting in particular generates r-selection governed by genetic variation in the strength of density regulation and the magnitude of population fluctuations. We show that r-selection caused by nonselective harvesting is proportional to the mean fraction of the population harvested. We then compare the short-term as well as the long-term evolutionary impact of nonselective harvesting for different harvesting strategies by using the mean harvest fraction for different strategies. This comparison is performed for three different harvesting strategies: constant, proportional, and threshold harvesting. The more ecologically sustainable strategies also produce smaller evolutionary changes.

Applying evolutionary biology to address global challenges

Two categories of evolutionary challenges result from escalating human impacts on the planet. The first arises from cancers, pathogens, and pests that evolve too quickly and the second, from the inability of many valued species to adapt quickly enough. Applied evolutionary biology provides a suite of strategies to address these global challenges that threaten human health, food security, and biodiversity. This Review highlights both progress and gaps in genetic, developmental, and environmental manipulations across the life sciences that either target the rate and direction of evolution or reduce the mismatch between organisms and human-altered environments. Increased development and application of these underused tools will be vital in meeting current and future targets for sustainable development.

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

Consistent size-independent harvest selection on fish body shape in two recreationally exploited marine species

Harvesting wild animals may exert size-independent selection pressures on a range of morphological, life history, and behavioral traits. Most work so far has focused on selection pressures on life history traits and body size as morphological trait. We studied here how recreational fishing selects for morphological traits related to body shape, which may correlate with underlying swimming behavior. Using landmark-based geometric morphometrics, we found consistent recreational fishing-induced selection pressures on body shape in two recreationally exploited marine fish species. We show that individuals with larger-sized mouths and more streamlined and elongated bodies were more vulnerable to passively operated hook-and-line fishing independent of the individual's body size or condition. While the greater vulnerability of individuals with larger mouth gapes can be explained by the direct physical interaction with hooks, selection against streamlined and elongated individuals could either involve a specific foraging mode or relate to underlying elevated swimming behavior. Harvesting using passive gear is common around the globe, and thus, size-independent selection on body shape is expected to be widespread potentially leaving behind individuals with smaller oral gapes and more compact bodies. This might have repercussions for food webs by altering foraging and predation.

Combined fishing and climate forcing in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem: an end-to-end modelling approach reveals dampened effects

The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N2P2Z2D2-OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability.