Ocean warming, a rapid distributional shift, and the hybridization of a coastal fish species

Five millennia of mitonuclear discordance in Atlantic bluefin tuna identified using ancient DNA

Mitonuclear discordance between species is readily documented in marine fishes. Such discordance may either be the result of past natural phenomena or the result of recent introgression from previously seperated species after shifts in their spatial distributions. Using ancient DNA spanning five millennia, we here investigate the long-term presence of Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) -like mitochondrial (MT) genomes in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), a species with extensive exploitation history and observed shifts in abundance and age structure. Comparing ancient (n = 130) and modern (n = 78) Atlantic bluefin MT genomes from most of its range, we detect no significant spatial or temporal population structure, which implies ongoing gene flow between populations and large effective population sizes over millennia. Moreover, we identify discordant MT haplotypes in ancient specimens up to 5000 years old and find that the frequency of these haplotypes has remained similar through time. We therefore conclude that MT discordance in the Atlantic bluefin tuna is not driven by recent introgression. Our observations provide oldest example of directly observed MT discordance in the marine environment, highlighting the utility of ancient DNA to obtain insights in the long-term persistence of such phenomena.

Atlantic mackerel population structure does not support genetically distinct spawning components

Background

The Atlantic mackerel, Scomber scombrus (Linnaeus, 1758) is a commercially valuable migratory pelagic fish inhabiting the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Given its highly migratory behaviour for feeding and spawning, several studies have been conducted to assess differentiation among spawning components to better define management units, as well as to investigate possible adaptations to comprehend and predict recent range expansion northwards.

Methods

Here, the genome of S. scombrus was sequenced and annotated, as an increasing number of population genetic studies have proven the relevance of reference genomes to investigate genomic markers/regions potentially linked to differences at finer scale. Such reference genome was used to map Restriction-site-associated sequencing (RAD-seq) reads for SNP discovery and genotyping in more than 500 samples distributed along the species range. The resulting genotyping tables have been used to perform connectivity and adaptation analyses.

Results

The assembly of the reference genome for S. scombrus resulted in a genome of 741 Mb. Our population genetic results show that the Atlantic mackerel consist of three previously known genetically isolated units (Northwest Atlantic, Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean), and provide no evidence for genetically distinct spawning components within the Northwest or Northeast Atlantic.

Conclusions

Therefore, our findings resolved previous uncertainties by confirming the absence of genetically isolated spawning components in each side of the northern Atlantic, thus rejecting homing behaviour and the need to redefine management boundaries in this species. In addition, no further genetic signs of ongoing adaptation were detected in this species.

Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security

Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both socio-economic and cultural levels. Evaluating the impacts of climatic change on small pelagic fish is a challenge and of serious concern in the context of shared stock management. Evaluating the impact of climate change on the distribution of small pelagic fish, a trend analysis was conducted using data from 2363 trawl samplings and 170,000 km of acoustics sea surveys. Strong warming is reported across the Southern Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), extending from Morocco to Senegal. Over 34 years, several trends emerged, with the southern CCLME experiencing increases in both wind speed and upwelling intensity, particularly where the coastal upwelling was already the strongest. Despite upwelling-induced cooling mechanisms, sea surface temperature (SST) increased in most areas, indicating the complex interplay of climatic-related stressors in shaping the marine ecosystem. Concomitant northward shifts in the distribution of small pelagic species were attributed to long-term warming trends in SST and a decrease in marine productivity in the south. The abundance of Sardinella aurita, the most abundant species along the coast, has increased in the subtropics and fallen in the intertropical region. Spatial shifts in biomass were observed for other exploited small pelagic species, similar to those recorded for surface isotherms. An intensification in upwelling intensity within the northern and central regions of the system is documented without a change in marine primary productivity. In contrast, upwelling intensity is stable in the southern region, while there is a decline in primary productivity. These environmental differences affected several small pelagic species across national boundaries. This adds a new threat to these recently overexploited fish stocks, making sustainable management more difficult. Such changes must motivate common regional policy considerations for food security and sovereignty in all West African countries sharing the same stocks.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Ocean warming favours a northern Argyrosomus species over its southern congener, whereas preliminary metabolic evidence suggests that hybridization may promote their adaptation

Anthropogenic-induced climate change is having profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems, and the resilience of fish populations will be determined by their response to these impacts. The northern Namibian coast is an ocean warming hotspot, with temperatures rising faster than the global average. The rapid warming in Namibia has had considerable impacts on marine fauna, such as the southern extension of the distribution of Argyrosomus coronus from southern Angola into northern Namibian waters, where it now overlaps and hybridizes with the closely related Namibian species, A. inodorus. Understanding how these species (and their hybrids) perform at current and future temperatures is vital to optimize adaptive management for Argyrosomus species. Intermittent flow-through respirometry was used to quantify standard and maximum metabolic rates for Argyrosomus individuals across a range of temperatures. The modelled aerobic scope (AS) of A. inodorus was notably higher at cooler temperatures (12, 15, 18 and 21°C) compared with that of A. coronus, whereas the AS was similar at 24°C. Although only five hybrids were detected and three modelled, their AS was in the upper bounds of the models at 15, 18 and 24°C. These findings suggest that the warming conditions in northern Namibia may increasingly favour A. coronus and promote the poleward movement of the leading edge of their southern distribution. In contrast, the poor aerobic performance of both species at cold temperatures (12°C) suggests that the cold water associated with the permanent Lüderitz Upwelling Cell in the south may constrain both species to central Namibia. This is most concerning for A. inodorus because it may be subjected to a considerable coastal squeeze.

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.

Climatic change drives dynamic source-sink relationships in marine species with high dispersal potential

While there is now strong evidence that many factors can shape dispersal, the mechanisms influencing connectivity patterns are species-specific and remain largely unknown for many species with a high dispersal potential. The rock lobsters Jasus tristani and Jasus paulensis have a long pelagic larval duration (up to 20 months) and inhabit seamounts and islands in the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans, respectively. We used a multidisciplinary approach to assess the genetic relationships between J. tristani and J. paulensis, investigate historic and contemporary gene flow, and inform fisheries management. Using 17,256 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms we found low but significant genetic differentiation. We show that patterns of connectivity changed over time in accordance with climatic fluctuations. Historic migration estimates showed stronger connectivity from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean (influenced by the Agulhas Leakage). In contrast, the individual-based model coupled with contemporary migration estimates inferred from genetic data showed stronger inter-ocean connectivity in the opposite direction from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean driven by the Subtropical Front. We suggest that the J. tristani and J. paulensis historical distribution might have extended further north (when water temperatures were lower) resulting in larval dispersal between the ocean basis being more influenced by the Agulhas Leakage than the Subtropical Front. As water temperatures in the region increase in accordance with anthropogenic climate change, a southern shift in the distribution range of J. tristani and J. paulensis could further reduce larval transport from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, adding complexity to fisheries management.

Genome-Scale Phylogenetic and Population Genetic Studies Provide Insight Into Introgression and Adaptive Evolution of Takifugu Species in East Asia

As a typical marine adaptive radiation species, most Takifugu species are widely distributed in East Asian offshore, which have diversified morphological characteristics and different ecological habits. The phylogenetic relationship and population structure of the Takifugu species was complicated because of incomplete lineage sorting, widespread hybridization and introgression. Therefore, to systematically clarify the phylogenetic relationships of Takifugu genus, explore the introgression and natural hybridization between different Takifugu species, and detect the selective signatures in the adaptive evolution of diversified traits, whole-genome resequencing was used in 122 Takifugu samples from 10 species. Phylogenetic analysis showed solid sister-group relationships between Takifugu bimaculatus and Takifugu flavidus, Takifugu oblongus, and Takifugu niphobles, Takifugu rubripes, and Takifugu obscurus, Takifugu xanthoptreus, and Takifugu ocellatus. Further admixture analysis indicated the divergence of T. obscurus population and the bidirectional gene flow between T. bimaculatus and T. flavidus. Using species-specific homozygous genetic variance sites, we detected the asymmetric introgression between T. bimaculatus and T. flavidus at China East sea and southern Taiwan Strait. By genome-scale genetic diversity scanning, we detected two copies of syt1, zar1 and tgfbr1 related to the semilunar reproduction rhythm in T. niphobles, involved in memory formation, embryo maturation and female reproduction. Furthermore, we also found lots of T. niphobles specific mutations in CDS region of circadian rhythm related genes and endocrine hormone genes. For Takifugu species, our research provides reliable genetic resources and results for the phylogeny, introgression, hybridization and adaptive evolution, and could be used as a guide for the formulation of the protection and proliferation release policies.

Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary

To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models (SDMs) are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long-term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species' potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time-series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species (Stolephorus commersonnii) predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other (Engraulis japonicus). In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward-an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary.

Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

Asymmetric responses of spatial variation of different communities to a salinity gradient in coastal wetlands

Various ecological communities are susceptible to the salinity gradients in coastal wetlands. Remane diagram has well described the macrozoobenthos diversity pattern along salinity gradients. Yet, further research is still needed, that is, the changes in diversity and biomass of other communities (e.g. plants, fish) along salinity gradients, and whether these changes are consistent or different among different communities. In this study, using China's Yellow River Delta wetland as a case study, we analyzed the variation of the community composition, species richness, and biomass of plant, macrozoobenthos, and fish communities along a salinity gradient from <0.5 to 30 ppt. We found that plant community composition exhibited more distinct variation along the salinity gradient than macrozoobenthos, with the least distinction for fish. Plant species richness decreased greatly along the gradient, whereas macrozoobenthos richness first decreased and then increased with increasing salinity, with the low richness occurring at a salinity of 0.9-12.3 ppt. Fish had the highest richness at a salinity of 14.8-16.0 ppt. The sum of plant, macrozoobenthos, and fish species and macrozoobenthos richness were both similar to the Remane diagram. Plants had higher biomass in low-salinity zones than in high-salinity zones, except for high biomass at a salinity of 14.8-16.0 ppt, whereas macrozoobenthos and fish showed the opposite trend. Principal-coordinate analysis showed an obvious dissimilarity map based on the composition, richness, and biomass of the plant, macrozoobenthos, and fish communities. Overall, the effects of salinity gradient differed among different communities. These findings demonstrate the asymmetric responses of different communities to salinity gradients, and have practical implications for maintaining a salinity gradient in coastal wetlands.

Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates

Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range shifts. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridize, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridization influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridize. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower performance than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridization.

Evaluating the potential for prezygotic isolation and hybridization between landlocked and anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) following secondary contact

The recent increase in river restoration projects is altering habitat connectivity for many aquatic species, increasing the chance that previously isolated populations will come into secondary contact. Anadromous and landlocked alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) are currently undergoing secondary contact as a result of a fishway installation at Rogers Lake in Old Lyme, Connecticut. To determine the degree of prezygotic isolation and potential for hybridization between alewife life history forms, we constructed spawning time distributions for two anadromous and three landlocked alewife populations using otolith-derived age estimates. In addition, we analyzed long-term data from anadromous alewife migratory spawning runs to look for trends in arrival date and spawning time. Our results indicated that anadromous alewife spawned earlier and over a shorter duration than landlocked alewife, but 3%-13% of landlocked alewife spawning overlapped with the anadromous alewife spawning period. The degree of spawning time overlap was primarily driven by annual and population-level variation in the timing of spawning by landlocked alewife, whereas the timing and duration of spawning for anadromous alewife were found to be relatively invariant among years in our study system. For alewife and many other anadromous fish species, the increase in fish passage river restoration projects in the coming decades will re-establish habitat connectivity and may bring isolated populations into contact. Hybridization between life history forms may occur when prezygotic isolating mechanisms are minimal, leading to potentially rapid ecological and evolutionary changes in restored habitats.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

When homoplasy mimics hybridization: a case study of Cape hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus)

In the marine environment, an increasing number of studies have documented introgression and hybridization using genetic markers. Hybridization appears to occur preferentially between sister-species, with the probability of introgression decreasing with an increase in evolutionary divergence. Exceptions to this pattern were reported for the Cape hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus), two distantly related Merluciidae species that diverged 3-4.2 million years ago. Yet, it is expected that contemporary hybridization between such divergent species would result in reduced hybrid fitness. We analysed 1,137 hake individuals using nine microsatellite markers and control region mtDNA data to assess the validity of the described hybridization event. To distinguish between interbreeding, ancestral polymorphism and homplasy we sequenced the flanking region of the most divergent microsatellite marker. Simulation and empirical analyses showed that hybrid identification significantly varied with the number of markers, model and approach used. Phylogenetic analyses based on the sequences of the flanking region of Mmerhk-3b, combined with the absence of mito-nuclear discordance, suggest that previously reported hybridization between M. paradoxus and M. capensis cannot be substantiated. Our findings highlight the need to conduct a priori simulation studies to establish the suitability of a particular set of microsatellite loci for detecting multiple hybridization events. In our example, the identification of hybrids was severely influenced by the number of loci and their variability, as well as the different models employed. More importantly, we provide quantifiable evidence showing that homoplasy mimics the effects of heterospecific crossings which can lead to the incorrect identification of hybridization.

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data

Excessive truncation of a population’s size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.

Environmental change influences the life history of salmon Salmo salar in the North Atlantic Ocean

Annual mean total length (LT) of wild one-sea-winter (1SW) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar of the Norwegian River Imsa decreased from 63 to 54 cm with a corresponding decrease in condition factor (K) for cohorts migrating to sea from 1976 to 2010. The reduction in LT is associated with a 40% decline in mean individual mass, from 2 to 1·2 kg. Hatchery fish reared from parental fish of the same population exhibited similar changes from 1981 onwards. The decrease in LT correlated negatively with near-surface temperatures in the eastern Norwegian Sea, thought to be the main feeding area of the present stock. Furthermore, S. salar exhibited significant variations in the proportion of cohorts attaining maturity after only one winter in the ocean. The proportion of S. salar spawning as 1SW fish was lower both in the 1970s and after 2000 than in the 1980s and 1990s associated with a gradual decline in post-smolt growth and smaller amounts of reserve energy in the fish. In wild S. salar, there was a positive association between post-smolt growth and the sea survival back to the River Imsa for spawning. In addition, among smolt year-classes, there were significant positive correlations between wild and hatchery S. salar in LT, K and age at maturity. The present changes may be caused by ecosystem changes following the collapse and rebuilding of the pelagic fish abundance in the North Atlantic Ocean, a gradual decrease in zooplankton abundance and climate change with increasing surface temperature in the Norwegian Sea. Thus, the observed variation in the life-history traits of S. salar appears primarily associated with major changes in the pelagic food web in the ocean.

OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Cryptic introgression into the kidney saxifrage (Saxifraga hirsuta) from its more abundant sympatric congener Saxifraga spathularis, and the potential risk of genetic assimilation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although hybridization can play a positive role in plant evolution, it has been shown that excessive unidirectional hybridization can result in replacement of a species' gene pool, and even the extinction of rare species via genetic assimilation. This study examines levels of introgression between the common Saxifraga spathularis and its rarer congener S. hirsuta, which have been observed to hybridize in the wild where they occur sympatrically.

METHODS

Seven species-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analysed in 1025 plants representing both species and their hybrid, S. × polita, from 29 sites across their ranges in Ireland. In addition, species distribution modelling was carried out to determine whether the relative abundance of the two parental species is likely to change under future climate scenarios.

KEY RESULTS

Saxifraga spathularis individuals tended to be genetically pure, exhibiting little or no introgression from S. hirsuta, but significant levels of introgression of S. spathularis alleles into S. hirsuta were observed, indicating that populations exhibiting S. hirsuta morphology are more like a hybrid swarm, consisting of backcrosses and F2s. Populations of the hybrid, S. × polita, were generally comprised of F1s or F2s, with some evidence of backcrossing. Species distribution modelling under projected future climate scenarios indicated an increase in suitable habitats for both parental species.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of introgression observed in this study in both S. spathularis and S. hirsuta would appear to be correlated with the relative abundance of the species. Significant introgression of S. spathularis alleles was detected in the majority of the S. hirsuta populations analysed and, consequently, ongoing introgression would appear to represent a threat to the genetic integrity of S. hirsuta, particularly in areas where the species exists sympatrically with its congener and where it is greatly outnumbered.