Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.

Impact of Hermodice carunculata (Pallas, 1766) (Polychaeta: Amphinomidae) on artisanal fishery: A case study from the Mediterranean sea

Invasive species can cause severe economic damages, ecosystem alterations, and can even threat human health. In the global warming scenario, which can act as a driving force for the expansion of thermophilic species, we investigated for the first time the economic damage caused by the invasive bearded fireworm, Hermodice carunculata, to artisanal longline fishery in the Mediterranean Sea. We focused on bottom longline fishery targeting the highly prized white seabream Diplodus sargus, investigating catch composition of the fishing gear and Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of species caught, with particular emphasis on the economic damage caused by the bearded fireworm, H. carunculata, in relation to water temperature. Our results clearly indicated direct and indirect economic damage to fishing activities practiced in the southeastern coast of Sicily (Ionian Sea). Type and extent of the damage caused by the invasive worm (H. carunculata) were discussed in relation to temporal scale and overall yields obtained by this traditional artisanal fishery, and some solutions are proposed. However, the actual situation requires special attention because it is expected to worsen in the context of the global warming future scenarios, such that further studies are urgently needed.

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this - the 'Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife'. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Evaluating the combined effect of climate and anthropogenic stressors on marine coastal ecosystems: Insights from a systematic review of cumulative impact assessment approaches

Cumulative impacts increasingly threaten marine and coastal ecosystems. To address this issue, the research community has invested efforts on designing and testing different methodological approaches and tools that apply cumulative impact appraisal schemes for a sound evaluation of the complex interactions and dynamics among multiple pressures affecting marine and coastal ecosystems. Through an iterative scientometric and systematic literature review, this paper provides the state of the art of cumulative impact assessment approaches and applications. It gives a specific attention to cutting-edge approaches that explore and model inter-relations among climatic and anthropogenic pressures, vulnerability and resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems to these pressures, and the resulting changes in ecosystem services flow. Despite recent advances in computer sciences and the rising availability of big data for environmental monitoring and management, this literature review evidenced that the implementation of advanced complex system methods for cumulative risk assessment remains limited. Moreover, experts have only recently started integrating ecosystem services flow into cumulative impact appraisal frameworks, but more as a general assessment endpoint within the overall evaluation process (e.g. changes in the bundle of ecosystem services against cumulative impacts). The review also highlights a lack of integrated approaches and complex tools able to frame, explain, and model spatio-temporal dynamics of marine and coastal ecosystems' response to multiple pressures, as required under relevant EU legislation (e.g., Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives). Progress in understanding cumulative impacts, exploiting the functionalities of more sophisticated machine learning-based approaches (e.g., big data integration), will support decision-makers in the achievement of environmental and sustainability objectives.

Assessing the vulnerability of marine life to climate change in the Pacific Islands region

Our changing climate poses growing challenges for effective management of marine life, ocean ecosystems, and human communities. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change, and where should management focus efforts to reduce these risks? To address these questions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Climate Science Strategy called for vulnerability assessments in each of NOAA’s ocean regions. The Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment (PIVA) project assessed the susceptibility of 83 marine species to the impacts of climate change projected to 2055. In a standard Rapid Vulnerability Assessment framework, this project applied expert knowledge, literature review, and climate projection models to synthesize the best available science towards answering these questions. Here we: (1) provide a relative climate vulnerability ranking across species; (2) identify key attributes and factors that drive vulnerability; and (3) identify critical data gaps in understanding climate change impacts to marine life. The invertebrate group was ranked most vulnerable and pelagic and coastal groups not associated with coral reefs were ranked least vulnerable. Sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, and oxygen concentration were the main exposure drivers of vulnerability. Early Life History Survival and Settlement Requirements was the most data deficient of the sensitivity attributes considered in the assessment. The sensitivity of many coral reef fishes ranged between Low and Moderate, which is likely underestimated given that reef species depend on a biogenic habitat that is extremely threatened by climate change. The standard assessment methodology originally developed in the Northeast US, did not capture the additional complexity of the Pacific region, such as the diversity, varied horizontal and vertical distributions, extent of coral reef habitats, the degree of dependence on vulnerable habitat, and wide range of taxa, including data-poor species. Within these limitations, this project identified research needs to sustain marine life in a changing climate.

Metabolic plasticity improves lobster's resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions

Marine species not only suffer from direct effects of warming oceans but also indirectly via the emergence of novel species interactions. While metabolic adjustments can be crucial to improve resilience to warming, it is largely unknown if this improves performance relative to novel competitors. We aimed to identify if spiny lobsters—inhabiting a global warming and species re-distribution hotspot—align their metabolic performance to improve resilience to both warming and novel species interactions. We measured metabolic and escape capacity of two Australian spiny lobsters, resident Jasus edwardsii and the range-shifting Sagmariasus verreauxi, acclimated to current average—(14.0 °C), current summer—(17.5 °C) and projected future summer—(21.5 °C) habitat temperatures. We found that both species decreased their standard metabolic rate with increased acclimation temperature, while sustaining their scope for aerobic metabolism. However, the resident lobster showed reduced anaerobic escape performance at warmer temperatures and failed to match the metabolic capacity of the range-shifting lobster. We conclude that although resident spiny lobsters optimise metabolism in response to seasonal and future temperature changes, they may be unable to physiologically outperform their range-shifting competitors. This highlights the critical importance of exploring direct as well as indirect effects of temperature changes to understand climate change impacts.

Participatory Qualitative Modeling to Assess the Sustainability of a Coastal Socio-Ecological System

Assessing the sustainability of socio-ecological systems requires understanding the interactions between numerous ecological, economic and social components. Models are often used to investigate how interactions shape system feedbacks and drive the complex dynamics at play in such systems. However, building these models is a non-trivial exercise, which often neglects stakeholder knowledge and perceptions. We adopted a participatory approach that relies on conducting workshops to engage stakeholders into the development of qualitative models of system feedback. This type of participatory qualitative modeling is well suited to address the complexity of socio-ecological systems in a holistic manner, identify key stakes and feedbacks, and predict responses to perturbations. We use this approach to investigate the factors that condition sustainability of the socio-ecological system associated with shellfish aquaculture in the Normand-Breton Gulf in France. Six region-specific workshops were organized with shellfish producers, managers and other stakeholders to identify and describe key components, interactions and pressures that contribute to overall socio-ecological dynamics. Differences and commonalities in system perceptions were identified across the different regions and focus groups. We reconciled stakeholder-specific discrepancies in model structure into a synthetic representation that conciliates alternative views of the system. Next, we predicted how the system might respond to alternative scenarios of change. Overall, our participatory qualitative modeling exercise identified key drivers of the system under study that constitute effective management levers to maintain system sustainability. For instance, low social acceptability of the aquaculture industry generally appears to be a major constraint on the sustainability of shellfish aquaculture in the Normand-Breton Gulf, while reducing rearing density appears to be a key driver of sustainability.

Temperature alters the physiological response of spiny lobsters under predation risk

Predation risk can strongly shape prey ecological traits, with specific anti-predator responses displayed to reduce encounters with predators. Key environmental drivers, such as temperature, can profoundly modulate prey energetic costs in ectotherms, although we currently lack knowledge of how both temperature and predation risk can challenge prey physiology and ecology. Such uncertainties in predator-prey interactions are particularly relevant for marine regions experiencing rapid environmental changes due to climate change. Using the octopus (Octopus maorum)-spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) interaction as a predator-prey model, we examined different metabolic traits of sub adult spiny lobsters under predation risk in combination with two thermal scenarios: 'current' (20°C) and 'warming' (23°C), based on projections of sea-surface temperature under climate change. We examined lobster standard metabolic rates to define the energetic requirements at specific temperatures. Routine metabolic rates (RMRs) within a respirometer were used as a proxy of lobster activity during night and day time, and active metabolic rates, aerobic scope and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption were used to assess the energetic costs associated with escape responses (i.e. tail-flipping) in both thermal scenarios. Lobster standard metabolic rate increased at 23°C, suggesting an elevated energetic requirement (39%) compared to 20°C. Unthreatened lobsters displayed a strong circadian pattern in RMR with higher rates during the night compared with the day, which were strongly magnified at 23°C. Once exposed to predation risk, lobsters at 20°C quickly reduced their RMR by ~29%, suggesting an immobility or 'freezing' response to avoid predators. Conversely, lobsters acclimated to 23°C did not display such an anti-predator response. These findings suggest that warmer temperatures may induce a change to the typical immobility predation risk response of lobsters. It is hypothesized that heightened energetic maintenance requirements at higher temperatures may act to override the normal predator-risk responses under climate-change scenarios.

Comparing structural and functional approaches to distinguish benthic communities from eutrophic and non-eutrophic estuaries

The performance of three approaches for macrobenthic classification in distinguishing communities subjected to different environmental conditions was compared: i) the traditional species-based approach; ii) a tolerance-based approach according to ecological groups of the AMBI index; and iii) a character-based approach using biological traits. We used a hierarchical sampling design including three progressively smaller spatial scales, considering that the environmental degradation influence benthic communities at the larger spatial scale. Despite small-scale spatial variations, all approaches performed similarly, distinguishing eutrophic from non-eutrophic benthic communities as they varied significantly at the larger scale, corresponding to the scale at which human induced changes act. Our results suggest that all three methodological approaches could be used as operational criteria to assess estuarine environmental quality, and despite more meaningful, there is still a degree of subjectivity in functional approaches, associated to the lack of more detailed information on macrofaunal life-cycles and levels of tolerance to disturbance.

Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5-50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.

Mapping long-term coral reef ecosystems regime shifts: A small island developing state case study

Coral reefs are among the most fragile ecosystems that provide essential services to local Small Island Developing States (SIDS) communities. As such, exploring the characteristics and interactions shaping regime shifts of coral reefs is of paramount importance in managing system pressures; enhancing resilience; aiding their regeneration and recovery process; and restoring habitat complexity. However, understanding the dynamics of coral reef ecosystems regime shift requires employing an approach capable of dealing with systems being affected by multiple climatic and socio-economic non-climatic pressures as well as an effective treatment of systemic embedded uncertainties. This study applies Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) in a participatory stepwise and systematic procedure to reflect dynamic casualties and temporal changes of coral reef ecosystem regime change over a long-time perspective. This mapping technique allows conceptualising dynamic models to represent causalities and modelling input values to simulate fluctuations within a complex temporal system. Port Resolution on Tanna Island in Vanuatu was selected as the case study region representative of Pacific-SIDS geography and human communities. As an initial outcome and an indicator of multidisciplinary of this study, twenty-seven principal influential factors and their corresponding causal relationships were identified. Subsequently, the coral reef regime shift was analysed under four main plausible scenarios representing major climatic and non-climatic trajectories. The results indicate that climate change factors play pivotal roles in the regime shift of the coral reef ecosystem globally. At the focal scale of this study, the tourism industry and coral fisheries are the most vulnerable services provided by coral reefs. As such, coupled local management interventions and global efforts in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change is likely to yield better coral reef ecosystem services at a local community level.

Predicting the potential distribution of the endemic seabird Pelecanus thagus in the Humboldt Current Large Marine Ecosystem under different climate change scenarios

BACKGROUND

The effects of global climate change on species inhabiting marine ecosystems are of growing concern, especially for endemic species that are sensitive due to restricted distribution. One method employed for determining the effects of climate change on the distribution of these organisms is species distribution modeling.

METHODS

We generated a model to evaluate the potential geographic distribution and breeding distribution of the Peruvian pelican (Pelecanus thagus). Based on maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), we identified the environmental factors that currently affect its geographic distribution and breeding. Then we predicted its future distribution range under two climate change scenarios: moderate (rcp 2.6) and severe (rcp 8.5).

RESULTS

The mean daytime temperature range and marine primary productivity explain the current potential distribution and breeding of the pelican. Under the future climate change scenarios, the spatial distribution of the pelican is predicted to slightly change. While the breeding distribution of the pelican can benefit in the moderate scenario, it is predicted to decrease (near -20 %) in the severe scenario.

DISCUSSION

The current potential geographic distribution of the pelican is influenced to a large extent by thermal conditions and primary productivity. Under the moderate scenario, a slight increase in pelican breeding distribution is predicted. This increase in habitable area is explained by the climatic conditions in southern Chile, and those climatic conditions will likely be similar to the current conditions of the central coast of Chile. We predict that the coasts of southern Chile will constitute an important refuge for the conservation of the Peruvian pelican under future climate change scenarios.

Understanding interactions between plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in response to marine environmental change

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Creating a Novel Multi-Layered Integrative Climate Change Adaptation Planning Approach Using a Systematic Literature Review

Climate change adaptation planning requires the integration of disciplines, stakeholders, different modelling approaches, treatment options, and scales of analysis. An integrated stepwise planning approach is a critical requirement for effective climate change adaptation in the context of small island developing states and coastal communities. To address this need, this paper reports on a systematic review of 116 research papers from an initial set of around 650 academic peer-reviewed papers. These papers were assessed and categorised based on their planning framework or the approach utilised, measured climate change impacts, employed methods and tools, and recommended adaptation strategies or options. This study identified three important dimensions of a fully integrated climate change adaptation planning process, namely, integration in assessment, integration in modelling, and integration in adaptive responses. Moreover, it resulted in the formulation of a novel multi-layered integrative climate change adaptation planning approach. Adopting this holistic and integrative approach is more likely to yield better climate change adaptation in planning outcomes over the long term.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Considering land-sea interactions and trade-offs for food and biodiversity

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per-capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever-growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross-sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade-offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land-sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter-productive trade-offs resulting from land-sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross-sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO₂ . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience.

Exact probabilities for the indeterminacy of complex networks as perceived through press perturbations

We consider the goal of predicting how complex networks respond to chronic (press) perturbations when characterizations of their network topology and interaction strengths are associated with uncertainty. Our primary result is the derivation of exact formulas for the expected number and probability of qualitatively incorrect predictions about a system's responses under uncertainties drawn form arbitrary distributions of error. Additional indices provide new tools for identifying which links in a network are most qualitatively and quantitatively sensitive to error, and for determining the volume of errors within which predictions will remain qualitatively determinate (i.e. sign insensitive). Together with recent advances in the empirical characterization of uncertainty in networks, these tools bridge a way towards probabilistic predictions of network dynamics.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂ . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Observational information on a temperate reef community helps understanding the marine climate and ecosystem shift of the 1980-90s

The dearth of long-time series hampers the measurement of the ecosystem change that followed the global marine climate shift of the 1980-90s. The sessile communities of Portofino Promontory reefs (Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean) have been discontinuously studied since the 1950s. Collating information from various sources, three periods of investigations have been distinguished: 1) 1950-70s; 2) 1980-90s; 3) 2000-10s. A cooler phase in time 1 was followed by a rapid warming in time 2, to stabilize at about 0.5°C higher in time 3. Human pressure grew impressively, especially after the establishment of a MPA in 1999. Multivariate analyses evidenced a major change of community composition in time 2. Some species disappeared or got rarer, many found refuge at depth, and among the newcomers there were recently introduced alien species. This study demonstrated the importance of descriptive historical data to understand magnitude and pattern of change in the long term evolution of marine ecosystems.

Managing shifting species: Ancient DNA reveals conservation conundrums in a dynamic world

The spread of exotic species represents a major driver of biological change across the planet. While dispersal and colonization are natural biological processes, we suggest that the failure to recognize increasing rates of human-facilitated self-introductions may represent a threat to native lineages. Notably, recent biogeographic analyses have revealed numerous cases of biological range shifts in response to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. In particular, ancient DNA analyses have revealed several cases in which lineages traditionally thought to be long-established "natives" are in fact recent colonizers. Such range expansion events have apparently occurred in response to human-mediated native biodiversity declines and ecosystem change, particularly in recently colonized, isolated ecosystems such as New Zealand. While such events can potentially boost local biodiversity, the spread of exotic lineages may also hasten the decline of indigenous species, so it is essential that conservation managers recognize these rapid biotic shifts.​.

Enemies with benefits: parasitic endoliths protect mussels against heat stress

Positive and negative aspects of species interactions can be context dependant and strongly affected by environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that, during periods of intense heat stress, parasitic phototrophic endoliths that fatally degrade mollusc shells can benefit their mussel hosts. Endolithic infestation significantly reduced body temperatures of sun-exposed mussels and, during unusually extreme heat stress, parasitised individuals suffered lower mortality rates than non-parasitised hosts. This beneficial effect was related to the white discolouration caused by the excavation activity of endoliths. Under climate warming, species relationships may be drastically realigned and conditional benefits of phototrophic endolithic parasites may become more important than the costs of infestation.