Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds

High dispersal ability versus migratory traditions: Fine-scale population structure and post-glacial colonisation in bar-tailed godwits

In migratory animals, high mobility may reduce population structure through increased dispersal and enable adaptive responses to environmental change, whereas rigid migratory routines predict low dispersal, increased structure, and limited flexibility to respond to change. We explore the global population structure and phylogeographic history of the bar-tailed godwit, Limosa lapponica, a migratory shorebird known for making the longest non-stop flights of any landbird. Using nextRAD sequencing of 14,318 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and scenario-testing in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we infer that bar-tailed godwits existed in two main lineages at the last glacial maximum, when much of their present-day breeding range persisted in a vast, unglaciated Siberian-Beringian refugium, followed by admixture of these lineages in the eastern Palearctic. Subsequently, population structure developed at both longitudinal extremes: in the east, a genetic cline exists across latitude in the Alaska breeding range of subspecies L. l. baueri; in the west, one lineage diversified into three extant subspecies L. l. lapponica, taymyrensis, and yamalensis, the former two of which migrate through previously glaciated western Europe. In the global range of this long-distance migrant, we found evidence of both (1) fidelity to rigid behavioural routines promoting fine-scale geographic population structure (in the east) and (2) flexibility to colonise recently available migratory flyways and non-breeding areas (in the west). Our results suggest that cultural traditions in highly mobile vertebrates can override the expected effects of high dispersal ability on population structure, and provide insights for the evolution and flexibility of some of the world's longest migrations.

A Review of the Conservation Status of Shorebirds in Mongolia

We present the first comprehensive review of 62 migratory shorebird species in Mongolia, covering their ecological status, IUCN assessments at regional or national levels, population trends, threats, and conservation measures. Mongolia hosts a total of 62 shorebird species from twenty-two genera and seven families, with six species classified as globally threatened: the Critically Endangered Sociable Lapwing, the Endangered Siberian Sandplover, the Far Eastern Curlew, the Great Knot, and the Vulnerable Sharp-Tailed Sandpiper. Both national and global IUCN Red List assessments highlight Mongolia's significance as a breeding and passage migrating site for globally threatened and Near-Threatened shorebirds. Species richness is higher in northern regions compared to the south, with the highest diversity found in areas with complex aquatic ecosystems. Global population trends indicate a decline in 61% of species, with 18% remaining stable, 16% of unknown status, and 5% increasing. At the national level, most species are stable (61%), 34% status is unknown, and 5% are decreasing. Anthropogenic-induced threats, including habitat loss and degradation, pollution, disturbance, and harvesting, pose significant risks to 69% of species, while natural disasters affect 11%. Additionally, 8% of species are impacted by accidental mortality and intrinsic factors, and 5% by changes in native species. Despite these threats, no specific conservation action plans exist for shorebirds in Mongolia. However, general conservation measures are in place, such as environmental and fauna protection laws, regulations on foreign trade in endangered species, and the establishment of protected areas under governmental resolutions. Mongolia also participates in international conventions like the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Ramsar, and Migratory Species (CMS), and has developed national red lists, red books, and publications such as "A Summary Conservation Action Plan for Mongolian Birds", "Important Bird Areas" to support conservation efforts.

Nesting Habitat Suitability of the Kentish Plover in the Arid Lands of Xinjiang, China

Understanding the main ecological factors of the nesting habitat of shorebirds is of great significance in relation to their protection and habitat management. Habitat loss and change due to a lack of water threaten the biodiversity of shorebirds, with impacts likely to be most pronounced in arid lands. We collected the data of 144 nesting sites and 10 ecological factors during the breeding season from April to July each year in 2019 and 2020 in nine river districts in Xinjiang. The MaxEnt model was applied to assess the suitability of nesting habitats for Kentish plovers (Charadrius alexandrinus) in the study area to examine the main factors affecting their nesting habitat. The most suitable nesting habitats are mostly distributed in plain reservoirs in the middle part of the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Ebinur Lake and its eastern position in the southwestern Junggar Basin, near Ulungur Lake of the Ulungur river area and the southern Irtysh river area. The distance from water, normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of the breeding season, slope, and land use were the main factors affecting the nesting habitat selection of Kentish plovers. It was found that the proportion of suitable nesting habitat protected for the Kentish plovers in the study area was low (851.66 km2), accounting for only 11.02% of the total suitable nesting habitat area. In view of the scarcity and importance of water bodies in arid lands and the lack of protection for Kentish plovers at present, it is suggested to strengthen the conservation and management of the regional shorebirds and their habitats by regulating and optimizing the allocation of water resources.

Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China

Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people's attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae's distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above -5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today's suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.

Prey availability and foraging activity by tundra-nesting sea ducks: Strong preference for specific wetland types

Wetlands in Arctic tundra support abundant breeding waterbirds. Wetland types differing in area, depth, vegetation, and invertebrate biomass density may vary in importance to birds, and in vulnerability to climate change. We studied availability and use of different wetland types by prelaying females of four species of sea ducks (Mergini) breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, USA: long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) and Steller's (Polysticta stelleri), spectacled (Somateria fischeri), and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis). All four species preferred shallow vegetated wetlands versus deeper lakes. The ducks spent almost all their active time feeding, but their occurrence in different wetland types was not affected by the relative biomass density of known prey or of all invertebrates that we sampled combined. Sea ducks strongly preferred wetlands dominated by emergent and submersed Arctophila fulva over those dominated by the sedge Carex aquatilis, despite the much greater number, total area, and invertebrate biomass density of Carex wetlands. The hens depend heavily on local invertebrate prey for protein to produce eggs; thus, their preference for Arctophila wetlands likely reflects greater accessibility of prey in the near-surface canopy and detritus of Arctophila. Such shallow wetlands decreased substantially in number (-17%) and area (-30%) over 62 years before 2013 and appear highly susceptible to further declines with climate warming. Impacts on sea ducks of climate-driven changes in availability of important wetland types will depend on their adaptability in exploiting alternative wetlands.

Good neighbors? Does aggregation of nests in an Arctic-breeding shorebird influence daily survival rates?

Our current understanding of the factors that influence where birds nest is incomplete, yet such information is important for accurate demographic assessments. To address questions related to spatial distributions of shorebird nests and to evaluate factors that may affect nest distribution in these species, during 2017 and 2019, we studied a small population of semipalmated sandpiper Calidris pusilla breeding in the Central Canadian Arctic, near the Karrak Lake Research Station, in Nunavut. The spatial distribution of semipalmated sandpiper nests at this site suggested loose aggregation, with median nearest neighbor distances of 73.8 m and 92.0 m in 2017 and 2019, respectively, while no nests were detected on mainland areas in the vicinity. Evidence for the influence of nesting distribution on the daily survival rate of nests, however, was mixed. Neither nearest neighbor distance nor local nest density had a significant effect on daily nest survival in 2017, but in 2019, the best approximating model included an effect of local nest density, which indicated that nests in areas of high density had reduced survival rates. Contrary to other studies assessing settlement and nest site selection in semipalmated sandpipers, the spatial distribution of nests in this population demonstrates aggregation in an otherwise territorial species, but suggests that aggregated nesting can impose a cost on nest survival under certain conditions.

Organic matter sources and flows in tundra wetland food webs

Arctic lowland tundra is often dominated by wetlands. As numbers and types of these wetlands change with climate warming, their invertebrate biomass and assemblages may also be affected. Increased influx of nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from thawing peat may alter the relative availability of organic matter (OM) sources, differentially affecting taxa with disparate dependence on those sources. In five shallow wetland types (<40 to 110 cm deep) and in littoral zones of deeper lakes (>150 cm), we used stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N) to compare contributions of four OM sources (periphytic microalgae, cyanobacteria, macrophytes, peat) to the diets of nine macroinvertebrate taxa. Living macrophytes were not distinguishable isotopically from peat that likely contributed most DOM. Within invertebrate taxa, relative OM contributions were similar among all wetland types except deeper lakes. Physidae snails consumed substantial amounts of OM from cyanobacteria. However, for all other taxa examined, microalgae were the dominant or a major OM source (39-82%, mean 59%) in all wetland types except deeper lakes (20‒62%, mean 31%). Macrophytes and macrophyte-derived peat, likely consumed mostly indirectly as DOM-supported bacteria, ranged from 18‒61% (mean 41%) of ultimate OM sources in all wetland types except deeper lakes (38-80%, mean 69%). Invertebrate consumption of microalgal C may often have involved bacterial intermediates, or a mix of algae with bacteria consuming peat-derived OM. High production of periphyton with very low δ13C values were favored by continuous daylight illuminating shallow depths, high N and P levels, and high CO2 concentrations from bacterial respiration of peat-derived DOM. Although relative OM sources were similar across wetland types except deeper lakes, total invertebrate biomass was much higher in shallow wetlands with emergent vegetation. Impacts of warming on the availability of invertebrate prey to waterbirds will likely depend not on shifts in OM sources, but more on changes in overall number or area of shallow emergent wetlands.

An integrated model for prediction of hydrologic anomalies for habitat suitability of overwintering geese in a large floodplain wetland, China

Climate anomalies and increasing human activities cause a high frequency of extreme hydrological events in wetlands, which has put waterbirds under greater survival pressure than ever. Therefore, it is crucial to predict the impact of this phenomenon on the habitat suitability of waterbirds. This study investigated the response of the goose distribution probability to hydrological variations using the flood duration index (FD), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and waterbirds GPS tracking data in Poyang Lake. An overwintering geese habitat suitability index (HSI) is built based on the FD, EVI, and threat index and verifies the accuracy of the model simulation. Then, the effects of drought and flood on the goose habitat especially sub-lakes with different connectivity were analyzed. The findings reveal that in dry and flood years, geese will broaden their range of feeding vegetation (more fresh or mature vegetation) in response to environmental deterioration. Both drought and flood can lead to a decline in the HSI, especially flood. Connected sub-lakes are more vulnerable to hydrological anomalies than controlled sub-lakes. This research establishes a scientific foundation for floodplain wetland hydrology management and waterbird conservation.

Climate-related range shifts in Arctic-breeding shorebirds

Aim

To test whether the occupancy of shorebirds has changed in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and whether these changes could indicate that shorebird distributions are shifting in response to long-term climate change.

Location

Foxe Basin and Rasmussen Lowlands, Nunavut, Canada.

Methods

We used a unique set of observations, made 25 years apart, using general linear models to test if there was a relationship between changes in shorebird species' occupancy and their species temperature Index, a simple version of a species climate envelope.

Results

Changes in occupancy and density varied widely across species, with some increasing and some decreasing. This is despite that overall population trends are known to be negative for all of these species based on surveys during migration. The changes in occupancy that we observed were positively related to the species temperature index, such that the warmer-breeding species appear to be moving into these regions, while colder-breeding species appear to be shifting out of the regions, likely northward.

Main Conclusions

Our results suggest that we should be concerned about declining breeding habitat availability for bird species whose current breeding ranges are centered on higher and colder latitudes.

Global changes in coastal wetlands of importance for non-breeding shorebirds

Shorebird declines are occurring worldwide but the causes are not fully understood. Recent literature suggests that the deterioration of habitat quality at their non-breeding areas, mostly located in temperate and tropical coastal wetlands, might be a major contributing factor. However, most studies carried out so far tend to be restricted to a few regions. Remote sensing can help correct such geographical bias on knowledge by providing a standardized approach on how shorebird habitats have been changing over the last few decades at a global scale. Here we analyzed time series of remote sensing classifications of tidal flats and land cover to quantify worldwide habitat changes in coastal Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) relevant for non-breeding shorebirds over the last two decades. Globally, supratidal areas (used as roosting habitat) have changed more significantly than tidal flats (used as feeding habitat). Yet, we found striking losses of tidal flats in IBAs distributed in several regions of the East Asian - Australasian Flyway. At supratidal areas, there was a general expansion of marshland, grassland and urban areas, contrasting with a decline of barren land, woodland and cropland. The expansion of marshland occurred in IBAs of most regions of the world. Urban areas also expanded consistently in supratidal areas within the most populated regions of the world. The loss of barren land is particularly concerning as it may translate into a loss of high-quality roosts and it was highly frequent in IBAs of all migratory flyways. Overall, our results confirm the large losses of shorebird habitat in the East Asian - Australasian Flyway reported in the literature, and highlight unreported generalized changes in supratidal habitats, such as the expansion of marshland and the loss of barren land, that may have negative implications for shorebirds, deserving further research and consideration in conservation programs.

Climate variables are not the dominant predictor of Arctic shorebird distributions

Competing theoretical perspectives about whether or not climate is the dominant factor influencing species' distributions at large spatial scales have important consequences when habitat suitability models are used to address conservation problems. In this study, we tested how much variables in addition to climate help to explain habitat suitability for Arctic-breeding shorebirds. To do this we model species occupancy using path analyses, which allow us to estimate the indirect effects of climate on other predictor variables, such as land cover. We also use deviance partitioning to quantify the total relative importance of climate versus additional predictors in explaining species occupancy. We found that individual land cover variables are often stronger predictors than the direct and indirect effects of climate combined. In models with both climate and additional variables, on average the additional variables accounted for 57% of the explained deviance, independent of shared effects with the climate variables. Our results support the idea that climate-only models may offer incomplete descriptions of current and future habitat suitability and can lead to incorrect conclusions about the size and location of suitable habitat. These conclusions could have important management implications for designating protected areas and assessing threats like climate change and human development.

Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia

Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides. Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate-proof conservation strategies.

Presence and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Escherichia coli, Enterococcusspp. and Salmonellasp. in 12 species of Australian shorebirds and terns

Antibiotic resistance is an ongoing threat to both human and animal health. Migratory birds are a potential vector for the spread of novel pathogens and antibiotic resistance genes. To date, there has been no comprehensive study investigating the presence of antibiotic resistance (AMR) in the bacteria of Australian shorebirds or terns. In the current study, 1022 individual birds representing 12 species were sampled across three states of Australia (Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia) and tested for the presence of phenotypically resistant strains of three bacteria with potential to be zoonotic pathogens; Escherichia coli, Enterococcusspp., and Salmonellasp. In total, 206 E. coli, 266 Enterococcusspp., and 20 Salmonellasp. isolates were recovered, with AMR detected in 42% of E. coli, 85% of Enterococcusspp., and 10% of Salmonellasp. Phenotypic resistance was commonly detected to erythromycin (79% of Enterococcusspp.), ciprofloxacin (31% of Enterococcusspp.) and streptomycin (21% of E. coli). Resident birds were more likely to carry AMR bacteria than migratory birds (p ≤ .001). Bacteria isolated from shorebirds and terns are commonly resistant to at least one antibiotic, suggesting that wild bird populations serve as a potential reservoir and vector for AMR bacteria. However, globally emerging phenotypes of multidrug‐resistant bacteria were not detected in Australian shorebirds. This study provides baseline data of the carriage of AMR bacteria in Australian shorebirds and terns.

Dissemination of multidrug resistant bacteria to the polar environment - Role of the longest migratory bird Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea)

The ever-increasing prevalence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria(ARB), primarily due to the frequent use and misuse of antibiotics, is an issue of serious global concern. Migratory birds have a significant role in dissemination of ARB, as they acquire resistant bacteria from reservoirs and transport them to other environments which are relatively less influenced by anthropogenically. We have investigated the prevalence of ARB in a long-distance migratory bird, the Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea) captured from the Svalbard Archipelago. The birds were tagged with geolocators to track their extraordinary long migration, and the cloacal samples were collected before the migration and after the migration by recapturing the same birds. The tracking of 12 birds revealed that during the annual cycle they underwent a total of 166 stopovers (11-18, mean = 3.8) and recovery points along the Atlantic Ocean. Twelve major bacterial genera were identified from Arctic tern cloacal samples, which are dominated by Staphylococcus spp. and Aerococcus spp. The bacterial isolates showed resistance against 16 antibiotics (before migration) and 17 antibiotics (after migration) out of 17 antibiotics tested. Resistance to β-lactam and quinolone class of antibiotics were frequent among the bacteria. The study highlights the potential role of Arctic tern in the dissemination of multidrug resistant bacteria across far and wide destinations, especially to the polar environments.

Global flyway evolution in red knots Calidris canutus and genetic evidence for a Nearctic refugium

Present‐day ecology and population structure are the legacies of past climate and habitat perturbations, and this is particularly true for species that are widely distributed at high latitudes. The red knot, Calidris canutus, is an arctic‐breeding, long‐distance migratory shorebird with six recognized subspecies defined by differences in morphology, migration behavior, and annual cycle phenology, in a global distribution thought to have arisen just since the last glacial maximum (LGM). We used nextRAD sequencing of 10,881 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to assess the neutral genetic structure and phylogeographic history of 172 red knots representing all known global breeding populations. Using population genetics approaches, including model‐based scenario‐testing in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, we infer that red knots derive from two main lineages that diverged ca. 34,000 years ago, and thus most probably persisted at the LGM in both Palearctic and Nearctic refugia, followed by at least two instances of secondary contact and admixture. Within two Beringian subspecies (C. c. roselaari and rogersi), we detected previously unknown genetic structure among sub‐populations sharing a migratory flyway, reflecting additional complexity in the phylogeographic history of the region. Conversely, we found very weak genetic differentiation between two Nearctic populations (rufa and islandica) with clearly divergent migratory phenotypes and little or no apparent contact throughout the annual cycle. Together, these results suggest that relative gene flow among migratory populations reflects a complex interplay of historical, geographical, and ecological factors.

Analysis of Conservation Gaps and Landscape Connectivity for Snow Leopard in Qilian Mountains of China

Human modification and habitat fragmentation have a substantial influence on large carnivores, which need extensive, contiguous habitats to survive in a landscape. The establishment of protected areas is an effective way to offer protection for carnivore populations by buffering them from anthropogenic impacts. In this study, we used MaxEnt to model habitat suitability and to identify conservation gaps for snow leopard (Panthera uncia) in the Qilian Mountains of China, and then assessed the impact of highways/railways and their corridors on habitat connectivity using a graph-based landscape connectivity model. Our results indicated that the study area had 51,137 km2 of potentially suitable habitat for snow leopards and that there were four protection gaps outside of Qilian Mountain National Park. The findings revealed that the investigated highway and railway resulted in a decrease in connectivity at a regional scale, and that corridor development might enhance regional connectivity, which strengthens the capacity of central habitat patches to act as stepping stones and improve connections between western and eastern habitat patches. This study emphasized the need for assessing the impact of highways and railways, as well as their role in corridor development, on species’ connectivity. Based on our results, we provide some detailed recommendations for designing protection action plans for effectively protecting snow leopard habitat and increasing habitat connectivity.

An observational analysis of Canada Jay (Perisoreus canadensis) foraging and caching ecology in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA

Arctic and subarctic wildlife are among the most vulnerable species to climate change. Canada Jays (Perisoreus canadensis (Linnaeus, 1776)) are generalist residents of northern boreal forests and scatter-hoard food to insulate against food scarcity during winter. Unlike most scatter-hoarders, however, Canada Jays primarily cache perishable food, rendering their caches more susceptible to climate change induced degradation and loss. Here we use a mostly noninvasive approach to document Canada Jay foraging ecology among a population in interior Alaska, USA, including the types of food acquired, foraging and caching rates, and cache longevity and loss. We also tested for associations between foraging and caching rates with reproductive metrics to assess possible relationships among food and productivity. We found that Canada Jays have a varied diet that changed seasonally, and responded to a record-setting warm spring by directing foraging efforts away from cache recovery and towards the emergence of fresh food. We did not find evidence for relationships between foraging and caching rate with reproductive output, possibly owing to small sample sizes. We found that caches were recovered quickly (<4 weeks) and frequently lost to conspecific and heterospecific competitors. Our study suggests that Canada Jays may be better poised to respond to changes in cache integrity and food availability than has been previously recognized.

The annual cycle for whimbrel populations using the Western Atlantic Flyway

Many long-distance migratory birds use habitats that are scattered across continents and confront hazards throughout the annual cycle that may be population-limiting. Identifying where and when populations spend their time is fundamental to effective management. We tracked 34 adult whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) from two breeding populations (Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay) with satellite transmitters to document the structure of their annual cycles. The two populations differed in their use of migratory pathways and their seasonal schedules. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels made long (22,800 km) loop migrations with different autumn and spring routes. Hudson Bay whimbrels made shorter (17,500 km) and more direct migrations along the same route during autumn and spring. The two populations overlap on the winter grounds and within one spring staging area. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels left the breeding ground, arrived on winter grounds, left winter grounds and arrived on spring staging areas earlier compared to whimbrels from Hudson Bay. For both populations, migration speed was significantly higher during spring compared to autumn migration. Faster migration was achieved by having fewer and shorter stopovers en route. We identified five migratory staging areas including four that were used during autumn and two that were used during spring. Whimbrels tracked for multiple years had high (98%) fidelity to staging areas. We documented dozens of locations where birds stopped for short periods along nearly all migration routes. The consistent use of very few staging areas suggests that these areas are integral to the annual cycle of both populations and have high conservation value.

Understanding the dynamics of Arctic animal migrations in a changing world

This is submitted as an introduction to the special collection on, “Arctic Migrations in a Changing World”.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Impact of Climate Change on Migratory Birds in Asia

Climate change is not something that has never happened before. However, it has recently been reported that climate change has affected living things such as humans, animals and plants. Among the animals that may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change are migratory bird species. Therefore, this review paper will emphasise the checklist of migratory bird species found to be affected by climate change. Data for bird migration species in Asia are obtained from the Birdlife Data Zone. At the same time, the data for Global land surface temperature (1910-2020) and Asia land surface temperature (1910-2020) were taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Environmental information. These papers showed that climate warming could affect species differently, but there are still species from certain populations not affected at all. This paper also reviewed that approximately 169 species of migratory birds in Asia are affected by climate change and severe weather. Of the total, 5 species (2.96%) are critically endangered, 8 (4.73%) endangered, 21 (12.43%) vulnerable, 27 (15.98%) near threatened and 123 (63.91%) least concern.

Animal migration to northern latitudes: environmental changes and increasing threats

Every year, many wild animals undertake long-distance migration to breed in the north, taking advantage of seasonally high pulses in food supply, fewer parasites, and lower predation pressure in comparison with equatorial latitudes. Growing evidence suggests that climate-change-induced phenological mismatches have reduced food availability. Furthermore, novel pathogens and parasites are spreading northwards, and nest or offspring predation has increased at many Arctic and northern temperate locations. Altered trophic interactions have decreased the reproductive success and survival of migratory animals. Reduced advantages for long-distance migration have potentially serious consequences for community structure and ecosystem function. Changes in the benefits of migration need to be integrated into projections of population and ecosystem dynamics and targeted by innovative conservation actions.

Shifting of the Migration Route of White-Naped Crane (Antigone vipio) Due to Wetland Loss in China

In the last 15 years, the west population of white-naped crane (Antigone vipio) decreased dramatically despite the enhanced conservation actions in both breeding and wintering areas. Recent studies highlighted the importance of protecting the integrity of movement connectivity for migratory birds. Widespread and rapid landcover changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of migrants, leading to the collapse of migratory networks. In this study, using satellite tracking data, we modeled and characterized the migration routes of the white-naped crane at three spatial levels (core area, migratory corridor, and migratory path) based on the utilization distribution for two eras (1990s and 2010s) spanning 20 years. Our analysis demonstrated that the white-naped crane shifted its migratory route, which is supported by other lines of evidences. The widespread loss of wetlands, especially within the stopover sites, might have caused this behavioral adaptation. Moreover, our analysis indicated that the long-term sustainability of the new route is untested and likely to be questionable. Therefore, directing conservation effects to the new route might be insufficient for the long-term wellbeing of this threatened crane and large-scale wetland restorations in Bohai Bay, a critical stopover site in the East Asian-Australasian flyway, are of the utmost importance to the conservation of this species.

What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario

The responses of threatened tropical avian species to projected climate change and land-use change are important for evaluating the ability of the existing protected areas to provide habitat to these species under future scenarios in biodiversity hotspots. This study uses Maxent, a species distribution model that employs a maximum entropy machine learning approach to map the spatial distributions of habitats suitable for the International Union for Conservation of Nature threatened birds under present and future climate and land-use change in Borneo. We find that the existing protected areas provide very low coverage of the threatened bird species’ suitable habitat areas (95%CI = 9.3–15.4%). Analysis of habitat suitability projections for 18 species of threatened birds suggests that in 2050, under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and B1, avian species with currently little suitable habitat may gain area but lose in the proportion of this that is protected. Large-ranged species are likely to lose habitat area and this will inflate the proportion of this remaining in protected areas. The present availability of suitable habitat was the most important determinant of future habitat availability under both the scenarios. Threat level, as measured by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and the habitat preferences considered here, Lowland or Lowland–Montane, are poor predictors of the amount of habitat contraction or expansion undergone by the species.

Climate-driven flyway changes and memory-based long-distance migration

Millions of migratory birds occupy seasonally favourable breeding grounds in the Arctic¹, but we know little about the formation, maintenance and future of the migration routes of Arctic birds and the genetic determinants of migratory distance. Here we established a continental-scale migration system that used satellite tracking to follow 56 peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) from 6 populations that breed in the Eurasian Arctic, and resequenced 35 genomes from 4 of these populations. The breeding populations used five migration routes across Eurasia, which were probably formed by longitudinal and latitudinal shifts in their breeding grounds during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene epoch. Contemporary environmental divergence between the routes appears to maintain their distinctiveness. We found that the gene ADCY8 is associated with population-level differences in migratory distance. We investigated the regulatory mechanism of this gene, and found that long-term memory was the most likely selective agent for divergence in ADCY8 among the peregrine populations. Global warming is predicted to influence migration strategies and diminish the breeding ranges of peregrine populations of the Eurasian Arctic. Harnessing ecological interactions and evolutionary processes to study climate-driven changes in migration can facilitate the conservation of migratory birds.

Global population trends in shorebirds: migratory behaviour makes species at risk

Linking population trends to species' traits is informative for the detection of the most important threatening factors and for assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. Although some previous studies performed such an analysis at local to continental scales, the global-scale focus is the most relevant for conservation of the entire species. Here we evaluate information on global population trends of shorebirds, a widely distributed and ecologically diversified group, where some species connect different parts of the world by migration, while others are residents. Nowadays, shorebirds face rapid environmental changes caused by various human activities and climate change. Numerous signs of regional population declines have been recently reported in response to these threats. The aim of our study was to test whether breeding and non-breeding habitats, migratory behaviour (migrants vs. residents) and migration distance, breeding latitude, generation time and breeding range size mirror species' global population trends. We found that a majority of shorebird species have declined globally. After accounting for the influence of traits and species taxonomy, linear mixed-effects models showed that populations of migratory shorebirds decreased more than populations of residents. Besides that, declines were more frequent for species breeding at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but these patterns did not hold after excluding the non-migratory species. Our findings suggest that factors linked to migration, such as habitat loss as well as deterioration at stop-over or wintering sites and a pronounced climate change impact at high latitudes, are possible drivers of the observed worldwide population decreases.

The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China

Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the air is acknowledged as one of the main reason for observed global climatic change. This phenomenon significantly affects the species geographical distribution, and changes their richness distribution pattern. Oak (Quercus L.) is an important component of forests in China, and it has significant ecological value. Based on the distribution data of 35 species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the potential richness distribution of Quercus L. in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under present climatic conditions and three different emission scenarios in the years 2050 and 2070 with six General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results revealed that Quercus L. at present was primarily distributed in the mountainous areas of southwestern China. The simulations indicated that climate change could affect the spatial pattern of the richness distribution, and if climate change intensified, its impact would gradually increase. As temperatures rise, the distribution of Quercus L. was predicted to be concentrated, and suitable areas of certain species would contract. These species may migrate to high altitudes or high latitudes. The high percentage of species lost is the reason for the higher turnover values in the mountainous areas, while other regions are mostly be influenced by the high percentage of species gained associated with the northward shift of species. Predicting changes in the richness distribution pattern of Quercus L. as a result of climate change can help us understand the biogeography of Quercus L. and enact conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.

Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk

Birds have been comprehensively assessed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List more times than any other taxonomic group. However, to date, generation lengths have not been systematically estimated to scale population trends when undertaking assessments, as required by the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We compiled information from major databases of published life-history and trait data for all birds and imputed missing life-history data as a function of species traits with generalized linear mixed models. Generation lengths were derived for all species, based on our modeled values of age at first breeding, maximum longevity, and annual adult survival. The resulting generation lengths varied from 1.42 to 27.87 years (median 2.99). Most species (61%) had generation lengths <3.33 years, meaning that the period of 3 generations-over which population declines are assessed under criterion A-was <10 years, which is the value used for IUCN Red List assessments of species with short generation times. For these species, our trait-informed estimates of generation length suggested that 10 years is a robust precautionary value for threat assessment. In other cases, however, for whole families, genera, or individual species, generation length had a substantial impact on their estimated extinction risk, resulting in higher extinction risk in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Although our approach effectively addressed data gaps, generation lengths for some species may have been underestimated due to a paucity of life-history data. Overall, our results will strengthen future extinction-risk assessments and augment key databases of avian life-history and trait data.

Nest-site selection of a subarctic-breeding shorebird: evidence for tree avoidance without fitness consequences

Vegetation communities in the subarctic are at risk of change due to climate-driven tree and shrub encroachment. Vegetation change may lead to unsuitable habitat for arctic-breeding birds, many of whom are declining. Although many possible factors are contributing to their decline, loss of breeding habitat could be a major contributor. We examined nest-site selection in Dunlin (Calidris alpina hudsonia (Todd, 1953)), a shorebird that nests in open fen habitats in the Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, region. Our objective was to determine whether this species avoids treed habitats and the possible fitness consequences for this. We examined the role of vegetative horizontal and vertical concealments on nest-site selection and nest fate. Dunlin selected nest sites with lower densities of trees than present at unused sites (40 m radius). Both horizontal and vertical concealments were significantly greater at nests than at unused sites, and horizontal concealment was greatest in the north. No measure of tree density or height, or concealment, significantly predicted nest fate. Although Dunlin appear to select nest sites that may minimize exposure to northerly winds and that may provide cover against potential predators, the current nest-site characteristics are not reinforced by contemporary selection.

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44-54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.

Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China

The population of wild musk deer (Moschus spp.) has declined in recent decades and reached an endangered status in China. Global climate change may drive the extinction rate of these species. To understand the implications of global warming on the future potential space utilization and migration direction of musk deer, both the maximum entropy model and barycenter migration analysis were utilized. Five global climate models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios were considered to simulate the distribution of six species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results indicated that the suitable habitat area would decrease over the next 30 to 50 years. These decreases of suitable habitat were more significant for the Siberian musk deer (reduced by 4.98% of the land area of China), the forest musk deer (1.04%), the black musk deer (0.86%), and the Himalayan musk deer (1.82%) compared with the other two musk deer species. The area with suitable climate for the Siberian musk deer will migrate to the southwest (to higher elevations) while areas suitable for the Alpine musk deer, the Himalayan musk deer, and the Anhui musk deer would all migrate to the northeast (to higher latitudes). However, the forest musk deer and the black musk deer will not migrate in the same direction, but will mainly migrate to the west and the north, respectively. These results provide data in support for in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation, natural reserve community, and bio-corridor construction of China's musk deer species in response to global warming.

The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

Hot temperatures during the dry season reduce survival of a resident tropical bird

Understanding how climate change will shape species distributions in the future requires a functional understanding of the demographic responses of animals to their environment. For birds, most of our knowledge of how climate influences population vital rates stems from research in temperate environments, even though most of Earth's avian diversity is concentrated in the tropics. We evaluated effects of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and local temperature and rainfall at multiple temporal scales on sex-specific survival of a resident tropical bird, the rufous-and-white wren Thryophilus rufalbus, studied over 15 years in the dry forests of northwestern Costa Rica. We found that annual apparent survival of males was 8% higher than females, more variable over time, and responded more strongly to environmental variation than female survival, which did not vary strongly with SOI or local weather. For males, mean and maximum local temperatures were better predictors of survival than either rainfall or SOI, with high temperatures during the dry season and early wet season negatively influencing survival. These results suggest that, even for species adapted to hot environments, further temperature increases may threaten the persistence of local populations in the absence of distributional shifts.

Mapping wader biodiversity along the East Asian-Australasian flyway

Background and goal

The study is conducted to facilitate conservation of migratory wader species along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, particularly to 1) Identify hotspots of wader species richness along the flyway and effectively map how these might change between breeding, non-breeding and migratory phases; 2) Determine if the existing network of protected areas (PA) is sufficient to effectively conserve wader biodiversity hotspots along the EAAF; 3) Assess how species distribution models can provide complementary distribution estimates to existing BirdLife range maps.

Methods

We use a species distribution modelling (SDM) approach (MaxEnt) to develop temporally explicit individual range maps of 57 migratory wader species across their annual cycle, including breeding, non-breeding and migratory phases, which in turn provide the first biodiversity hotspot map of migratory waders along the EAAF for each of these phases. We assess the protected area coverage during each migration period, and analyse the dominant environmental drivers of distributions for each period. Additionally, we compare model hotspots to those existing range maps of the same species obtained from the BirdLife Internationals’ database.

Results

Our model results indicate an overall higher and a spatially different species richness pattern compared to that derived from a wader biodiversity hotspot map based on BirdLife range maps. Field observation records from the eBird database for our 57 study species confirm many of the hotspots revealed by model outputs (especially within the Yellow Sea coastal region), suggesting that current richness of the EAAF may have been underestimated and certain hotspots overlooked. Less than 10% of the terrestrial zones area (inland and coastal) which support waders are protected and, only 5% of areas with the highest 10% species richness is protected.

Main conclusions

The study results suggest the need for new areas for migratory wader research and conservation priorities including Yellow Sea region and Russian far-East. It also suggests a need to increase the coverage and percentage of current PA network to achieve Aichi Target 11 for Flyway countries, including giving stronger consideration to the temporal dynamics of wader migration.

Where will threatened migratory birds go under climate change? Implications for China's national nature reserves

Climate change, regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, can impact on the distribution and survival of migratory birds. To investigate the threats of climate change to threatened migratory bird distributions, we used species distribution model (SDM) and climatic data under current and future climate scenarios to predict future changes in species distributions and how the geographic distribution of these threatened birds may respond to climate change by 2050. Our results show the hotspots for all species may remain in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while more species may dwell in the coastal regions of the Bohai Gulf and the Yellow Sea in the future. Our findings show that the percentage of all species distributions or hotspots for all threatened species covered by national nature reserves (NNRs) in China remain low by 2050. Thus, we propose that China should increase and expand reserves in eastern China. Significantly, we emphasize the creation of protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites in the world and recommend that China should (1) strengthen the cooperation with neighboring countries to share maximum species occurrence data (especially the threatened species), (2) overlay maps of individual species for each taxon to assess the efficiency of coastal nature reserves and predict the hotspots shift under climate change, (3) trade off urban development and ecosystem stability to create new and dynamic protected areas to make it the Ramsar sites, (4) appeal for long-term protection of ecosystem stability to achieve sustainable development in the world.