Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Assessing the sewage discharge effects on soft-bottom macrofauna through traits-based approach

We assessed the effect of sewage-derived materials on the structural and functional attributes of the soft-bottom macrofauna at an increasing distance from the entire diffusion area. Our results showed clear spatial changes of macrofaunal density and biomass along the distance gradient from the main outfall. High values of biodiversity, species composition, and species linked to organic enrichment near the duct suggested that moderate organic stress affected this community. The traits analysis abundance-based, compared to biomass-based one, distinguished most clearly sewage contamination conditions. Functional diversity displayed spatial patterns with higher values in the less impacted sites and was significantly related to species numbers and the biotic indices (like M-AMBI). This approach is ideal for detecting macrofaunal functional changes due to sewage contamination. Thus, we infer that traits analyses could offer great potential for environmental assessment and monitoring of coastal areas influenced by human activities.

Co-created Future Scenarios as a Tool to Communicate Sustainable Development in Coastal Communities in Palawan, Philippines

Scenarios can be used to communicate potential future changes and engage and connect different audiences in exploring sustainable solutions. Communicating scenarios using creative visualisation, co-creation and a focus on local contexts are especially promising. This research is conducted on the island of Palawan in the Philippines as part of the GCRF Blue Communities project. With a quasi-experimental design, we investigate the psychological and emotional effects of the engagement with future scenarios as a tool for communicating sustainability. Together with local stakeholders and community members, three distinct, locally relevant scenario narratives (Business as Usual, Best Case, and Worst Case) have been co-created. Subsequently, a sample of N = 109 local high school students was asked to creatively engage with these scenario narratives. Intentions to engage in sustainable behaviour, perceived behavioural control, ascription of responsibility, consideration of future consequences, six basic emotions and connectedness to place were assessed before and after the activity via paper-pencil administrated questionnaires. A mixed-model analysis showed significant increases in intentions to engage in sustainable behaviour, however, this increase disappeared when consideration of future consequences was added as a covariate, suggesting a mediating effect. The level of consideration of future consequences also increased significantly after engaging with any of the future scenarios, which questions the common interpretation of consideration of future consequences as a trait variable. Perceived behavioural control significantly increased following the engagement with each of the scenarios whereas ascription of responsibility and connectedness to place did not show any changes. Overall, the two most emotion-evoking scenarios, Best Case Scenario and Worst Case Scenario, turn out as superior over the Business as Usual Scenario, which points to the relevance of emotional framing for effective messaging in our sample. This is the first systematic, quantitative assessment of the effects of future scenarios as a communication tool.

Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Mission impossible: Reach the carrion in a lithium pollution and marine warming scenario

In this study we investigated the independent and synergistic effects of lithium (Li, 0.08 mM) contamination and the rising seawater temperature (21 °C; control- 15 °C) on survival and trophic interactions (foraging behaviour, success, search time, carrion preference, feeding time, and tissue consumption-the dry weight basis) of the opportunistic intertidal scavenger Tritia neritea. Trophic interactions were assessed in a two-choice test using a Y-maze design using the same amount of two carrion species (Solen marginatus and Mytilus galloprovincialis) given to all snails simultaneously. Lithium pollution and synergestic warming have the effect of reducing the survival rate of T. neritea, triggering potential global change scenarios. The foraging behaviour of T. neritea under Li-contaminated conditions was characterised by a decrease in the snail's effectiveness in finding a carrion. Lithium changes the feeding behaviour as well as increasing the time it takes for snails to reach their food. T. neritea did not show preference for any of the carrion species offered in controls, but a shift in feeding behaviour towards more energetic carrion under Li contamination which may indicate a strategy to compensate for the greater energy expenditure necessary to survive. There were no differences in feeding time at the different treatments and regardless of the treatment tested T. neritea consumed more mussels tissue probably due to its greater palatability. Results showing foraging modifications in an intertidal scavenger mollusc in global change scenarios indicate potential changes in complex trophic interactions of marine food webs.

Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea

Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep-sea resource extraction

Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep-ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep-sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep-seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full-cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth-System Model projections of climate-change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep-seabed mining. Models that combine climate-induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep-seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral-related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep-ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Innovative solutions to improve the condition and resilience of ecosystems are needed to address societal challenges and pave the way towards a climate-resilient future. Nature-based solutions offer the potential to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing multiple other benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment. However, the implementation of nature-based solutions stems from a discourse that is almost exclusively derived from a terrestrial and urban context and assumes that risk reduction is resolved locally. We argue that this position ignores the importance of complex ecological interactions across a range of temporal and spatial scales and misses the substantive contribution from marine ecosystems, which are notably absent from most climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that extend beyond coastal disaster management. Here, we consider the potential of sediment-dwelling fauna and flora to inform and support nature-based solutions, and how the ecology of benthic environments can enhance adaptation plans. We illustrate our thesis with examples of practice that are generating, or have the potential to deliver, transformative change and discuss where further innovation might be applied. Finally, we take a reflective look at the realized and potential capacity of benthic-based solutions to contribute to adaptation plans and offer our perspectives on the suitability and shortcomings of past achievements and the prospective rewards from sensible prioritization of future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Spatial risk assessment of global change impacts on Swedish seagrass ecosystems

Improved knowledge on the risk in ecologically important habitats on a regional scale from multiple stressors is critical for managing functioning and resilient ecosystems. This risk assessment aimed to identify seagrass ecosystems in southern Sweden that will be exposed to a high degree of change from multiple global change stressors in mid- and end-of-century climate change conditions. Risk scores were calculated from the expected overlap of three stressors: sea surface temperature increases, ocean acidification and wind driven turbid conditions. Three high-risk regions were identified as areas likely to be exposed to a particularly high level of pressure from the global stressors by the end of the century. In these areas it can be expected that there will be a large degree of stressor change from the current conditions. Given the ecological importance of seagrass meadows for maintaining high biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services, these risk zones should be given high priority for incorporation into management strategies, which can attempt to reduce controllable stressors in order to mitigate the consequences of some of the impending pressures and manage for maintained ecosystem resilience.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

An Integrated Variational Mode Decomposition and ARIMA Model to Forecast Air Temperature

Temperature forecasting is a crucial part of climate change research. It can provide a valuable reference, as well as practical significance, for understanding the macroscopic evolutionary processes of regional temperature and for promoting sustainable development. This study presents a new integrated model, called the Variational Mode Decomposition-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (VMD-ARIMA) model, which reduces the required data input and improves the accuracy of predictions, based on the deficiencies of data dependence and the complicated mechanisms associated with current temperature forecasting. In this model, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) was used for mining the trend features and detailed features contained in a time series, as well as denoising. Moreover, the corresponding autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were derived to reflect the different features of the components. The final forecasted values were then obtained using VMD reconstruction. The annual temperature time series from the Wuhan Meteorological Station were investigated using the VMD-ARIMA model, ARIMA model, and Grey Model (1, 1) based on three statistical performance metrics (mean relative error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error). The results indicate that the VMD-ARIMA model can effectively enhance the accuracy of temperature forecasting.

Impacts and responses to environmental change in coastal livelihoods of south-west Bangladesh

Aquatic ecosystems are of global importance for maintaining high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for the number of livelihoods dependent on them. In Bangladesh, coastal and delta communities rely on these systems for a livelihood, and the sustainability of the productivity is seriously threatened by both climate change and unsustainable management. These multiple drivers of change shape the livelihood dependence and adaptation responses, where a better understanding is needed to achieve sustainable management in these systems, while maintaining and improving dependent livelihoods. This need has been addressed in this study in the region of Satkhira, in the southwest coast of Bangladesh, where livelihoods are highly dependent on aquatic systems for food supply and income. Traditional wild fish harvest in the rivers and aquaculture systems, including ghers, ponds, and crab points have been changing in terms of the uses and intensity of management, and suffering from climate change impacts as well. By means of six focus groups with 50 participants total, and validated by expert consultations, we conduct an analysis to understand the main perceived impacts from climate and human activities; and the adaptation responses from the aquatic system livelihoods. We find that biodiversity has decreased drastically, while farmed species have increased and shrimp gher farming turned more intensive becoming the main source of income. All these changes have important implications for food supply in the region and environmental sustainability. Dramatic responses taken in the communities include exit the fisheries and migration, and more adaptive responses include species diversification, crab fattening and working more on the pond and gher infrastructure. This study evidences the results of the combination of multiple stressors in productive systems and the barriers to adaptation in aquatic ecosystem dependent communities.

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (-9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (-58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention -4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.

Does sex really matter? Explaining intraspecies variation in ocean acidification responses

Ocean acidification (OA) poses a major threat to marine ecosystems globally, having significant ecological and economic importance. The number and complexity of experiments examining the effects of OA has substantially increased over the past decade, in an attempt to address multi-stressor interactions and long-term responses in an increasing range of aquatic organisms. However, differences in the response of males and females to elevated pCO₂ have been investigated in fewer than 4% of studies to date, often being precluded by the difficulty of determining sex non-destructively, particularly in early life stages. Here we highlight that sex can significantly impact organism responses to OA, differentially affecting physiology, reproduction, biochemistry and ultimately survival. What is more, these impacts do not always conform to ecological theory based on differential resource allocation towards reproduction, which would predict females to be more sensitive to OA owing to the higher production cost of eggs compared with sperm. Therefore, non-sex-specific studies may overlook subtle but ecologically significant differences in the responses of males and females to OA, with consequences for forecasting the fate of natural populations in a near-future ocean.

Fertilization and connectivity in the Garrucha Canyon (SE-Spain) implications for Marine Spatial Planning

Marine Spatial Planning is usually based on benthic georeferenced information or GPS tracked human activities, whereas the pelagic ecosystem is often ignored because of scarce and limited surface information. However, the 3-D pelagic ecosystem plays a key role connecting all the other ecosystems by physical (currents) and biological (migration) processes. According to remote sensing the Garrucha Canyon is oligotrophic, but 3-D sampling reveals subsurface upwelling, and converts it into the richest area around the Cape of Gata. Vertical connectivity by means of zooplankton migration, measured at two sampling stations, is 40 and 220 times faster than microphytoplankton settling and vertical water velocities respectively. Thus coupled physical-biological connectivity models are necessary to estimate the ecosystem connection and the fate of carbon, but also other substances (e.g. radioactivity), that might accumulate throughout the food-web. This is especially important in the Garrucha Canyon and the Coastal Areas Management Programme Levante de Almería where natural heritage and extractive fishery are important for the local economy.

Conservation physiology of marine fishes: state of the art and prospects for policy

The state of the art of research on the environmental physiology of marine fishes is reviewed from the perspective of how it can contribute to conservation of biodiversity and fishery resources. A major constraint to application of physiological knowledge for conservation of marine fishes is the limited knowledge base; international collaboration is needed to study the environmental physiology of a wider range of species. Multifactorial field and laboratory studies on biomarkers hold promise to relate ecophysiology directly to habitat quality and population status. The 'Fry paradigm' could have broad applications for conservation physiology research if it provides a universal mechanism to link physiological function with ecological performance and population dynamics of fishes, through effects of abiotic conditions on aerobic metabolic scope. The available data indicate, however, that the paradigm is not universal, so further research is required on a wide diversity of species. Fish physiologists should interact closely with researchers developing ecological models, in order to investigate how integrating physiological information improves confidence in projecting effects of global change; for example, with mechanistic models that define habitat suitability based upon potential for aerobic scope or outputs of a dynamic energy budget. One major challenge to upscaling from physiology of individuals to the level of species and communities is incorporating intraspecific variation, which could be a crucial component of species' resilience to global change. Understanding what fishes do in the wild is also a challenge, but techniques of biotelemetry and biologging are providing novel information towards effective conservation. Overall, fish physiologists must strive to render research outputs more applicable to management and decision-making. There are various potential avenues for information flow, in the shorter term directly through biomarker studies and in the longer term by collaborating with modellers and fishery biologists.