Joint structural and physiological control on the interannual variation in productivity in a temperate grassland: A data-model comparison

Vegetation canopy structure mediates the response of gross primary production to environmental drivers across multiple temporal scales

Gross primary production (GPP) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle and plays a significant role in the terrestrial carbon budget. The impact of environmental factors on GPP can occur through both direct (by influencing photosynthetic efficiency) and indirect (through the modulation of vegetation structure) pathways, but the extent to which these mechanisms contribute has been seldom quantified. In this study, we used structural equation modeling and observations from the FLUXNET network to investigate the direct and indirect effects of environmental factors on terrestrial ecosystem GPP at multiple temporal scales. We found that canopy structure, represented by leaf area index (LAI), is a crucial intermediate factor in the GPP response to environmental drivers. Environmental factors affect GPP indirectly by altering canopy structure, and the relative proportion of indirect effects decreased with increasing LAI. The study also identified different effects of environmental factors on GPP across time scales. At the half-hourly time scale, radiation was the primary driver of GPP. In contrast, the influences of temperature and vapor pressure deficit took on greater prominence at longer time scales. About half of the total effect of temperature on GPP was indirect through the regulation of canopy structure, and the indirect effect increased with increasing time scale (GPPNT-based models: 0.135 (half-hourly) vs. 0.171 (daily) vs. 0.189 (weekly) vs. 0.217 (monthly); GPPDT-based models: 0.139 vs. 0.170 vs. 0.187 vs. 0.215; all values were reported in gC m-2 d-1 °C-1, P < 0.001); while the indirect effect of radiation on GPP was comparatively lower, accounting for less than a quarter of the total effect. Furthermore, we observed a direct, negative-to-positive impact of precipitation on GPP across timescales. These findings provide crucial information on the interplay between environmental factors and LAI on GPP and enable a deeper understanding of the driving mechanisms of GPP.

Drought limits vegetation carbon sequestration by affecting photosynthetic capacity of semi-arid ecosystems on the Loess Plateau

Drought is the driver for ecosystem production in semi-arid areas. However, the response mechanism of ecosystem productivity to drought remains largely unknown. In particular, it is still unclear whether drought limits the production via photosynthetic capacity or phenological process. Herein, we assess the effects of maximum seasonal photosynthesis, growing season length, and climate on the annual gross primary productivity (GPP) in vegetation areas of the Loess Plateau using multi-source remote sensing and climate data from 2001 to 2021. We found that maximum seasonal photosynthesis rather than growing season length dominates annual GPP, with above 90 % of the study area showing significant and positive correlation. GPP and maximum seasonal photosynthesis were positively correlated with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in >95 % of the study area. Structural equation model demonstrated that both drought indices contributed to the annual GPP by promoting the maximum seasonal photosynthesis. Total annual precipitation had a positive and significant effect on two drought indices, whereas the effects of temperature and radiation were not significant. Evidence from wood formation data also confirmed that low precipitation inhibited long-term carbon sequestration by decreasing the maximum growth rate in forests. Our findings suggest that drought limits ecosystem carbon sequestration by inhibiting vegetation photosynthetic capacity rather than phenology, providing a support for assessing the future dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle and guiding landscape management in semi-arid ecosystems.

Immediate and carry-over effects of late-spring frost and growing season drought on forest gross primary productivity capacity in the Northern Hemisphere

Forests are increasingly exposed to extreme global warming-induced climatic events. However, the immediate and carry-over effects of extreme events on forests are still poorly understood. Gross primary productivity (GPP) capacity is regarded as a good proxy of the ecosystem's functional stability, reflecting its physiological response to its surroundings. Using eddy covariance data from 34 forest sites in the Northern Hemisphere, we analyzed the immediate and carry-over effects of late-spring frost (LSF) and growing season drought on needle-leaf and broadleaf forests. Path analysis was applied to reveal the plausible reasons behind the varied responses of forests to extreme events. The results show that LSF had clear immediate effects on the GPP capacity of both needle-leaf and broadleaf forests. However, GPP capacity in needle-leaf forests was more sensitive to drought than in broadleaf forests. There was no interaction between LSF and drought in either needle-leaf or broadleaf forests. Drought effects were still visible when LSF and drought coexisted in needle-leaf forests. Path analysis further showed that the response of GPP capacity to drought differed between needle-leaf and broadleaf forests, mainly due to the difference in the sensitivity of canopy conductance. Moreover, LSF had a more severe and long-lasting carry-over effect on forests than drought. These results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of forest response to extreme events across forest types.

Mapping Chinese annual gross primary productivity with eddy covariance measurements and machine learning

Annual gross primary productivity (AGPP) is the basis for grain production and terrestrial carbon sequestration. Mapping regional AGPP from site measurements provides methodological support for analysing AGPP spatiotemporal variations thereby ensures regional food security and mitigates climate change. Based on 641 site-year eddy covariance measuring AGPP from China, we built an AGPP mapping scheme based on its formation and selected the optimal mapping way, which was conducted through analysing the predicting performances of divergent mapping tools, variable combinations, and mapping approaches in predicting observed AGPP variations. The reasonability of the selected optimal scheme was confirmed by assessing the consistency between its generating AGPP and previous products in spatiotemporal variations and total amount. Random forest regression tree explained 85 % of observed AGPP variations, outperforming other machine learning algorithms and classical statistical methods. Variable combinations containing climate, soil, and biological factors showed superior performance to other variable combinations. Mapping AGPP through predicting AGPP per leaf area (PAGPP) explained 86 % of AGPP variations, which was superior to other approaches. The optimal scheme was thus using a random forest regression tree, combining climate, soil, and biological variables, and predicting PAGPP. The optimal scheme generating AGPP of Chinese terrestrial ecosystems decreased from southeast to northwest, which was highly consistent with previous products. The interannual trend and interannual variation of our generating AGPP showed a decreasing trend from east to west and from southeast to northwest, respectively, which was consistent with data-oriented products. The mean total amount of generated AGPP was 7.03 ± 0.45 PgC yr^-1 falling into the range of previous works. Considering the consistency between the generated AGPP and previous products, our optimal mapping way was suitable for mapping AGPP from site measurements. Our results provided a methodological support for mapping regional AGPP and other fluxes.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and community structure to intra-annual precipitation patterns: A meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The productivity and community structures of terrestrial ecosystems are regulated by total precipitation amount and intra-annual precipitation patterns, which have been altered by climate change. The timing and sizes of precipitation events are the two key factors of intra-annual precipitation patterns and potentially drive ecosystem function by influencing soil moisture. However, the generalizable patterns of how intra-annual precipitation patterns affect the productivity and community structures of ecosystems remain unclear.

METHODS

We synthesized 633 observations from 17 studies and conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate the influences of intra-annual precipitation patterns on the productivity and community structures of terrestrial ecosystems. By classifying intra-annual precipitation patterns, we also assess the importance of the magnitude and timing of precipitation events on plant productivity.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the intra-annual precipitation patterns decreased diversity by 6.3% but increased belowground net primary productivity, richness, and relative abundance by 16.8%, 10.5%, and 45.0%, respectively. Notably, we found that the timing uniformity of precipitation events was more important for plant productivity, while the plant community structure benefited from the increased precipitation variability. In addition, the relationship between plant productivity and community structure and soil moisture dynamic response was more consistent with the nonlinear model.

COMCLUSIONS

The patterns of the responses of plant productivity and community structure to altered intra-annual precipitation patterns were revealed, and the importance of the timing uniformity of precipitation events to the functioning of production systems was highlighted, which is essential to enhancing understanding of the structures and functions of ecosystems subjected to altered precipitation patterns and predicting their changes.

Photosynthetic capacity dominates the interannual variation of annual gross primary productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

Annual gross primary productivity (AGPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is the largest carbon flux component in ecosystems; however, it's unclear whether photosynthetic capacity or phenology dominates interannual variation of AGPP, and a better understanding of this could contribute to estimation of carbon sinks and their interactions with climate change. In this study, observed GPP data of 494 site-years from 39 eddy covariance sites in Northern Hemisphere were used to investigate mechanisms of interannual variation of AGPP. This study first decomposed AGPP into three seasonal dynamic attribute parameters (growing season length (CUP), maximum daily GPP (GPP_max), and the ratio of mean daily GPP to GPP_max (α_GPP)), and then decomposed AGPP into mean leaf area index (LAI_m) and annual photosynthetic capacity per leaf area (AGPP_lm). Furthermore, GPP_max was decomposed into leaf area index of DOY_max (the day when GPP_max appeared) (LAI_max) and photosynthesis per leaf area of DOY_max (GPP_lmax). Relative contributions of parameters to AGPP and GPP_max were then calculated. Finally, environmental variables of DOY_max were extracted to analyze factors influencing interannual variation of GPP_lmax. Trends of AGPP in 39 ecosystems varied from -65.23 to 53.05 g C m^-2 yr^-2, with the mean value of 6.32 g C m^-2 yr^-2. Photosynthetic capacity (GPP_max and AGPP_lm), not CUP or LAI, was the main factor dominating interannual variation of AGPP. GPP_lmax determined the interannual variation of GPP_max, and temperature, water, and radiation conditions of DOY_max affected the interannual variation of GPP_lmax. This study used the cascade relationship of "environmental variables-GPP_lmax-GPP_max-AGPP" to explain the mechanism of interannual variation of AGPP, which can provide new ideas for the AGPP estimation based on seasonal dynamic of GPP.

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Their Determinants in an Alpine Meadow

The alpine meadow is one of the most important ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to its huge carbon storage and wide distribution. Evaluating the carbon fluxes in alpine meadow ecosystems is crucial to understand the dynamics of carbon storage in high-altitude areas. Here, we investigated the carbon fluxes at seasonal and inter-annual timescales based on 5 years of observations of eddy covariance fluxes in the Zoige alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that the Zoige alpine meadow acted as a faint carbon source of 94.69 ± 86.44 g C m^-2 y^-1 during the observation periods with large seasonal and inter-annual variations (IAVs). At the seasonal scale, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) were positively correlated with photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), average daily temperature (Ta), and vapor pressure (VPD) and had negative relationships with volumetric water content (VWC). Seasonal variations of net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange (NEE) were mostly explained by Ta, followed by PPFD, VPD, and VWC. The IAVs of GPP and Re were mainly attributable to the IAV of the maximum GPP rate (GPP_max) and maximum Re rate (Re_max), respectively, both of which increased with the percentage of Cyperaceae and decreased with the percentage of Polygonaceae changes across years. The IAV of NEE was well explained by the anomalies of the maximum CO₂ release rate (MCR). These results indicated that the annual net CO₂ exchange in the alpine meadow ecosystem was controlled mainly by the maximum C release rates. Therefore, a better understanding of physiological response to various environmental factors at peak C uptake and release seasons will largely improve the predictions of GPP, Re, and NEE in the context of global change.

Herbaceous Dominant the Changes of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Transition Zone Between Desert and Typical Steppe in Inner Mongolia, China

Asymmetric responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to precipitation were identified as a signal to predict ecosystem state shifts at temperate grassland zones in Inner Mongolia, China. However, mechanism studies were still lacking. This study hypothesized that the enhanced growth and newly emerged herbaceous after increased precipitation resulted in the highest asymmetry at the transition zone between desert and typical steppe. We monitored the responses of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different species to precipitation events using un-manned aerial vehicle technology to test this hypothesis. NDVI and species richness were measured twice at fixed points in July and August with a time interval of 15 days. Results showed that: (1) From July to August, NDVI in the transition zone increased significantly after precipitation (P < 0.05), but NDVI in both the desert and typical steppe showed a non-significant change (P > 0.05). (2) In the transition zone, NDVI increases from the shrub and herbaceous contributed to 37 and 63% increases of the site NDVI, respectively. (3) There was a significant difference in species richness between July and August in the transition zone (P < 0.05), mainly caused by the herbaceous (Chenopodiaceae, Composite, Convolvulaceae, Gramineae, Leguminosae, and Liliaceae), which either emerged from soil or tillers growth from surviving plants. This study demonstrated that herbaceous dominant the changes of NDVI in the transition zone, which provides a scientific basis for the mechanism studies of ANPP asymmetric response to precipitation and warrants long-term measurements.

A process-based model reveals the restoration gap of degraded grasslands in Inner Mongolian steppe

Due to the influence of climate change and extensive grazing, a large proportion of steppe grassland has been degraded worldwide. The Chinese government initiated a series of grassland restoration programs to reverse the degradation. However, the limiting factors and the restoration potential remain unknown. Here we present a process-based model to assess the restoration gap (RG) defined as maximum biomass differences between non-degraded and degraded grasslands with different degrees of soil and vegetation degradation. The process-based model Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was evaluated utilizing observation data from both typical and meadow steppes under natural conditions in terms of phenology, dynamics of above-ground biomass and soil water content. Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis were subsequently performed to address the RG and controlling factors during 1969-2018. The results showed that the calibrated model performed well with r > 0.75 and model efficiency factor EF > 0.5 for all the simulation components. According to our model results, the RG was larger in typical steppe compared to that of meadow steppe and it increased with increasing soil and/or vegetation degradation, to ~60% under extremely degraded scenarios. Both soil and vegetation degradation led to reduced water use efficiency, with an elevated proportion of soil evaporation to evapotranspiration (Es/ET), however, the limiting factor for RG varied. The degradation of soil water holding capacity contributed more to RG regardless of climate conditions for typical steppe in all years and for meadow steppe in dry years. In wet years the importance of vegetation coverage reduction increased for RG in meadow steppe, where the relative importance of vegetation coverage (valued at 62.8%) was 25.6% higher than that of soil degradation. Our results demonstrated the importance of considering climate variations when developing protection and restoration programs for grassland ecosystems.

Drought and heat wave impacts on grassland carbon cycling across hierarchical levels

Droughts and heat waves are increasing in magnitude and frequency, altering the carbon cycle. However, understanding of the underlying response mechanisms remains poor, especially for the combination (hot drought). We conducted a 4-year field experiment to examine both individual and interactive effects of drought and heat wave on carbon cycling of a semiarid grassland across individual, functional group, community and ecosystem levels. Drought did not change below-ground biomass (BGB) or above-ground biomass (AGB) due to compensation effects between grass and non-grass functional groups. However, consistently decreased BGB under heat waves limited such compensation effects, resulting in reduced AGB. Ecosystem CO₂ fluxes were suppressed by droughts, attributed to stomatal closure-induced reductions in leaf photosynthesis and decreased AGB of grasses, while CO₂ fluxes were little affected by heat waves. Overall the hot drought produced the lowest leaf photosynthesis, AGB and ecosystem CO₂ fluxes although the interactions between heat wave and drought were usually not significant. Our results highlight that the functional group compensatory effects that maintain community-level AGB rely on feedback of root system responses, and that plant adjustments at the individual level, together with shifts in composition at the functional group level, co-regulate ecosystem carbon sink strength under climate extremes.

Drought Affected Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency of a Natural Oak Forest in Central China

Global climate models project more frequent drought events in Central China. However, the effect of seasonal drought on ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) and water regulation strategy in Central China’s natural forests is poorly understood. This study investigated variations in WUE associated with drought in a natural oak (Quercus aliena) forest in Central China from 2017 to 2020 at several timescales based on continuous CO2 and water vapor flux measurements. Results showed that the 4-year mean gross ecosystem production (GEP), evapotranspiration (ET) and WUE of the natural oak forest was 1613.2 ± 116 g Cm−2, 637.8 ± 163.3 mm and 2.6 ± 0.68 g Ckg−1 H2O, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 7.2%, 25.6% and 26.4%, respectively. The inter-annual variation in WUE was large, primarily due to the variation in ET caused by seasonal drought. Drought increased WUE distinctly in summer and decreased it slightly in autumn. During summer drought, surface conductance (gs) usually decreased with an increase in VPD, but the ratios of stomatal sensitivity (m) and reference conductance (gsref) were 0.21 and 0.3 molm−2s−1ln(kPa)−1 in the summer of 2019 and 2020. Strong drought can also affect ecosystem WUE and water regulation strategy in the next year. Decrease in precipitation in spring increased annual WUE. These results suggested that drought in different seasons had different effects on ecosystem WUE. Overall, our findings suggest that the natural oak forest did not reduce GEP by increasing WUE (i.e., reducing ET) under spring and summer drought, which could be due to its typical anisohydric characteristics, although it can also reduce stomatal opening during long-term drought.

Using climate-driven leaf phenology and growth to improve predictions of gross primary productivity in North American forests

Forest ecosystems are an important sink for terrestrial carbon sequestration. Hence, accurate modeling of the intra- and interannual variability of forest photosynthetic productivity remains a key objective in global biology. Applying climate-driven leaf phenology and growth in models may improve predictions of the forest gross primary productivity (GPP). We used a dynamic non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) model (FORCCHN2) that couples leaf development and phenology to investigate the relationships among photosynthesis and environmental factors. FORCCHN2 simulates spring and autumn phenological events from heat and chilling, respectively. Leaf area index data from satellites along with climate data estimated localized phenological parameters. NSC limitation, immediate temperature, accumulated heat, and growth potential comprised a daily leaf-growth model. Functionally, leaf growth was decoupled from photosynthesis. Leaf biomass determined overall photosynthetic production. We compared this model with outputs of the other six terrestrial biospheric models and with observations from the North American Carbon Program Site Interim Synthesis in 18 forest sites. This model improved the predicted performance of yearly GPP with a 57%-210% increase in correlation (median) and up to a 102% reduction in biases (median), compared to three prognostic models and three prescribed models. At the North America continental scale, the model predicted the average annual GPP of 7.38 Pg C/year from forest ecosystems during 1985-2016. The results showed an increasing trend of GPP in North America (1.0 Pg C/decade). The inclusion of climate-driven phenology and growth has a significant potential for improving dynamic vegetation models, and promotes a further understanding of the complex relationship between environment and photosynthesis.

Nutrients and water availability constrain the seasonality of vegetation activity in a Mediterranean ecosystem

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and resulting differences in ecosystem N and phosphorus (P) ratios are expected to impact photosynthetic capacity, that is, maximum gross primary productivity (GPP_max ). However, the interplay between N and P availability with other critical resources on seasonal dynamics of ecosystem productivity remains largely unknown. In a Mediterranean tree-grass ecosystem, we established three landscape-level (24 ha) nutrient addition treatments: N addition (NT), N and P addition (NPT), and a control site (CT). We analyzed the response of ecosystem to altered nutrient stoichiometry using eddy covariance fluxes measurements, satellite observations, and digital repeat photography. A set of metrics, including phenological transition dates (PTDs; timing of green-up and dry-down), slopes during green-up and dry-down period, and seasonal amplitude, were extracted from time series of GPP_max and used to represent the seasonality of vegetation activity. The seasonal amplitude of GPP_max was higher for NT and NPT than CT, which was attributed to changes in structure and physiology induced by fertilization. PTDs were mainly driven by rainfall and exhibited no significant differences among treatments during the green-up period. Yet, both fertilized sites senesced earlier during the dry-down period (17-19 days), which was more pronounced in the NT due to larger evapotranspiration and water usage. Fertilization also resulted in a faster increase in GPP_max during the green-up period and a sharper decline in GPP_max during the dry-down period, with less prominent decline response in NPT. Overall, we demonstrated seasonality of vegetation activity was altered after fertilization and the importance of nutrient-water interaction in such water-limited ecosystems. With the projected warming-drying trend, the positive effects of N fertilization induced by N deposition on GPP_max may be counteracted by an earlier and faster dry-down in particular in areas where the N:P ratio increases, with potential impact on the carbon cycle of water-limited ecosystems.

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

Ecological responses to heavy rainfall depend on seasonal timing and multi-year recurrence

Heavy rainfall events are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. However, their effects on natural ecosystems are largely unknown, in particular with different seasonal timing of the events and recurrence over multiple years. We conducted a 4 yr manipulative experiment to explore grassland response to heavy rainfall imposed in either the middle of, or late in, the growing season in Inner Mongolia, China. We measured hierarchical responses at individual, community and ecosystem levels. Surprisingly, above-ground biomass remained stable in the face of heavy rainfall, regardless of seasonal timing, whereas heavy rainfall late in the growing season had consistent negative impacts on below-ground and total biomass. However, such negative biomass effects were not significant for heavy rainfall in the middle of the growing season. By contrast, heavy rainfall in the middle of the growing season had greater positive effects on ecosystem CO₂ exchanges, mainly reflected in the latter 2 yr of the 4 yr experiment. This two-stage response of CO₂ fluxes was regulated by increased community-level leaf area and leaf-level photosynthesis and interannual variability of natural precipitation. Overall, our study demonstrates that ecosystem impacts of heavy rainfall events crucially depend on the seasonal timing and multiannual recurrence. Plant physiological and morphological adjustment appeared to improve the capacity of the ecosystem to respond positively to heavy rainfall.

Evaluating and comparing remote sensing terrestrial GPP models for their response to climate variability and CO2 trends

Remote sensing (RS)-based models play an important role in estimating and monitoring terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Several RS-based GPP models have been developed using different criteria, yet the sensitivities to environmental factors vary among models; thus, a comparison of model sensitivity is necessary for analyzing and interpreting results and for choosing suitable models. In this study, we globally evaluated and compared the sensitivities of 14 RS-based models (2 process-, 4 vegetation-index-, 5 light-use-efficiency, and 3 machine-learning-based models) and benchmarked them against GPP responses to climatic factors measured at flux sites and to elevated CO₂ concentrations measured at free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment sites. The results demonstrated that the models with relatively high sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations showed a higher increasing GPP trend. The fundamental difference in the CO₂ effect in the models' algorithm either considers the effect of CO₂ through changes in greenness indices (nine models) or introduces the influences on photosynthesis (three models). The overall effects of temperature and radiation, in terms of both magnitude and sign, vary among the models, while the models respond relatively consistently to variations in precipitation. Spatially, larger differences among model sensitivity to climatic factors occur in the tropics; at high latitudes, models have a consistent and obvious positive response to variations in temperature and radiation, and precipitation significantly enhances the GPP in mid-latitudes. Compared with the results calculated by flux-site measurements, the model performance differed substantially among different sites. However, the sensitivities of most models are basically within the confidence interval of the flux-site results. In general, the comparison revealed that models differed substantially in the effect of environmental regulations, particularly CO₂ fertilization and water stress, on GPP, and none of the models performed consistently better across the different ecosystems and under the various external conditions.

Contrasting the Performance of Eight Satellite-Based GPP Models in Water-Limited and Temperature-Limited Grassland Ecosystems

Models constitute the primary approaches for predicting terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) at regional and global scales. Many satellite-based GPP models have been developed due to the simple algorithms and the low requirements of model inputs. The performances of these models are well documented at the biome level. However, their performances among vegetation subtypes limited by different environmental stresses within a biome remains largely unexplored. Taking grasslands in northern China as an example, we compared the performance of eight satellite-based GPP models, including three light-use efficiency (LUE) models (vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM), modified VPM (MVPM), and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer GPP algorithm (MODIS-GPP)) and five statistical models (temperature and greenness model (TG), greenness and radiation model (GR), vegetation index model (VI), alpine vegetation model (AVM), and photosynthetic capacity model (PCM)), between the water-limited temperate steppe and the temperature-limited alpine meadow based on 16 site-year GPP estimates at four eddy covariance (EC) flux towers. The results showed that all the GPP models performed better in the alpine meadow, particularly in the alpine shrub meadow (R2 ≥ 0.84), than in the temperate steppe (R2 ≤ 0.68). The performance varied greatly among the models in the temperate steppe, while slight intermodel differences existed in the alpine meadow. Overall, MVPM (of the LUE models) and VI (of the statistical models) were the two best-performing models in the temperate steppe due to their better representation of the effect of water stress on vegetation productivity. Additionally, we found that the relatively worse model performances in the temperate steppe were seriously exaggerated by drought events, which may occur more frequently in the future. This study highlights the varying performances of satellite-based GPP models among vegetation subtypes of a biome in different precipitation years and suggests priorities for improving the water stress variables of these models in future efforts.

Shifts in the dynamics of productivity signal ecosystem state transitions at the biome-scale

Understanding ecosystem dynamics and predicting directional changes in ecosystem in response to global changes are ongoing challenges in ecology. Here we present a framework that links productivity dynamics and ecosystem state transitions based on a spatially continuous dataset of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) from the temperate grassland of China. Across a regional precipitation gradient, we quantified spatial patterns in ANPP dynamics (variability, asymmetry and sensitivity to rainfall) and related these to transitions from desert to semi-arid to mesic steppe. We show that these three indices of ANPP dynamics displayed distinct spatial patterns, with peaks signalling transitions between grassland types. Thus, monitoring shifts in ANPP dynamics has the potential for predicting ecosystem state transitions in the future. Current ecosystem models fail to capture these dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate more nuanced ecological controls of productivity in models to forecast future ecosystem shifts.