Seasonal variability of forest sensitivity to heat and drought stresses: A synthesis based on carbon fluxes from North American forest ecosystems

Plant height as an indicator for alpine carbon sequestration and ecosystem response to warming

Growing evidence indicates that plant community structure and traits have changed under climate warming, especially in cold or high-elevation regions. However, the impact of these warming-induced changes on ecosystem carbon sequestration remains unclear. Using a warming experiment on the high-elevation Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we found that warming not only increased plant species height but also altered species composition, collectively resulting in a taller plant community associated with increased net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Along a 1,500 km transect on the Plateau, taller plant community promoted NEP and soil carbon through associated chlorophyll content and other photosynthetic traits at the community level. Overall, plant community height as a dominant trait is associated with species composition and regulates ecosystem C sequestration in the high-elevation biome. This trait-based association provides new insights into predicting the direction, magnitude and sensitivity of ecosystem C fluxes in response to climate warming.

Thermal, water, and land cover factors led to contrasting urban and rural vegetation resilience to extreme hot months

With continuing global warming and urbanization, it is increasingly important to understand the resilience of urban vegetation to extreme high temperatures, but few studies have examined urban vegetation at large scale or both concurrent and delayed responses. In this study, we performed an urban-rural comparison using the Enhanced Vegetation Index and months that exceed the historical 90th percentile in mean temperature (referred to as "hot months") across 85 major cities in the contiguous United States. We found that hot months initially enhanced vegetation greenness but could cause a decline afterwards, especially for persistent (≥4 months) and intense (≥+2 °C) episodes in summer. The urban responses were more positive than rural in the western United States or in winter, but more negative during spring-autumn in the eastern United States. The east-west difference can be attributed to the higher optimal growth temperatures and lower water stress levels of the western urban vegetation than the rural. The urban responses also had smaller magnitudes than the rural responses, especially in deciduous forest biomes, and least in evergreen forest biomes. Within each biome, analysis at 1 km pixel level showed that impervious fraction and vegetation cover, local urban heat island intensity, and water stress were the key drivers of urban-rural differences. These findings advance our understanding of how prolonged exposure to warm extremes, particularly within urban environments, affects vegetation greenness and vitality. Urban planners and ecosystem managers should prioritize the long and intense events and the key drivers in fostering urban vegetation resilience to heat waves.

Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition

Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort of trees in the contiguous US, characterizing potential changes in aboveground tree carbon at the county level in response to varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition. We found that relative to a scenario with N and S deposition reduction and no climate change, greater climate change led generally to decreasing aboveground carbon (mean -7.5% under RCP4.5, -16% under RCP8.5). Keeping climate constant, reduced N deposition tended to lessen aboveground carbon (mean -7%), whereas reduced S deposition tended to increase aboveground carbon (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), deposition was more important for predicting carbon responses except under the extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5); but, by 2100, climate drivers generally outweighed deposition. While more than 70% of counties showed reductions in aboveground carbon relative to the reference scenario, these were not evenly distributed across the US. Counties in the Northwest and Northern Great Plains, and the northern parts of New England and the Midwest, primarily showed positive responses, while counties in the Southeast showed negative responses. Counties with greater initial biomass showed less negative responses to climate change while those which exhibited the greatest change in composition (>15%) had a 95% chance of losing carbon relative to a no-climate change scenario. This analysis highlights that declines in forest growth and survival due to increases in mean temperature and reductions in atmospheric N deposition are likely to outweigh positive impacts of reduced S deposition and potential increases in precipitation. These effects vary at the regional and county level, however, so forest managers must consider local rather than national dynamics to maximize forest carbon sinks in the future.

Long-term changes in forest response to extreme atmospheric dryness

Atmospheric dryness, as indicated by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), has a strong influence on forest greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. In this study, we used long-term (10-30 years) net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measurements from 60 forest sites across the world (1003 site-years) to quantify long-term changes in forest NEP resistance and NEP recovery in response to extreme atmospheric dryness. We tested two hypotheses: first, across sites differences in NEP resistance and NEP recovery of forests will depend on both the biophysical characteristics (i.e., leaf area index [LAI] and forest type) of the forest as well as on the local meteorological conditions of the site (i.e., mean VPD of the site), and second, forests experiencing an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of extreme dryness will show an increasing trend in NEP resistance and NEP recovery over time due to emergence of long-term ecological stress memory. We used a data-driven statistical learning approach to quantify NEP resistance and NEP recovery over multiple years. Our results showed that forest types, LAI, and median local VPD conditions explained over 50% of variance in both NEP resistance and NEP recovery, with drier sites showing higher NEP resistance and NEP recovery compared to sites with less atmospheric dryness. The impact of extreme atmospheric dryness events on NEP lasted for up to 3 days following most severe extreme events in most forests, indicated by an NEP recovery of less than 100%. We rejected our second hypothesis as we found no consistent relationship between trends of extreme VPD with trends in NEP resistance and NEP recovery across different forest sites, thus an increase in atmospheric dryness as it is predicted might not increase the resistance or recovery of forests in terms of NEP.

Thermal sensitivity across forest vertical profiles: patterns, mechanisms, and ecological implications

Rising temperatures are influencing forests on many scales, with potentially strong variation vertically across forest strata. Using published research and new analyses, we evaluate how microclimate and leaf temperatures, traits, and gas exchange vary vertically in forests, shaping tree, and ecosystem ecology. In closed-canopy forests, upper canopy leaves are exposed to the highest solar radiation and evaporative demand, which can elevate leaf temperature (T_leaf ), particularly when transpirational cooling is curtailed by limited stomatal conductance. However, foliar traits also vary across height or light gradients, partially mitigating and protecting against the elevation of upper canopy T_leaf . Leaf metabolism generally increases with height across the vertical gradient, yet differences in thermal sensitivity across the gradient appear modest. Scaling from leaves to trees, canopy trees have higher absolute metabolic capacity and growth, yet are more vulnerable to drought and damaging T_leaf than their smaller counterparts, particularly under climate change. By contrast, understory trees experience fewer extreme high T_leaf 's but have fewer cooling mechanisms and thus may be strongly impacted by warming under some conditions, particularly when exposed to a harsher microenvironment through canopy disturbance. As the climate changes, integrating the patterns and mechanisms reviewed here into models will be critical to forecasting forest-climate feedback.

Fluctuating fortunes: Stressor synchronicity and fluctuating intensity influence biological impacts

Ecosystems remain under enormous pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Manipulative experiments evaluating stressor interactions and impacts mostly apply stressors under static conditions without considering how variable stressor intensity (i.e. fluctuations) and synchronicity (i.e. timing of fluctuations) affect biological responses. We ask how variable stressor intensity and synchronicity, and interaction type, can influence how multiple stressors affect seagrass. At the highest intensities, fluctuating stressors applied asynchronously reduced seagrass biomass 36% more than for static stressors, yet no such difference occurred for photosynthetic capacity. Testing three separate hypotheses to predict underlying drivers of differences in biological responses highlighted alternative modes of action dependent on how stressors fluctuated over time. Given that environmental conditions are constantly changing, assessing static stressors may lead to inaccurate predictions of cumulative effects. Translating multiple stressor experiments to the real world, therefore, requires considering variability in stressor intensity and the synchronicity of fluctuations.

Responses of Tree Growth and Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency to Environmental Factors in Central and Northern China in the Context of Global Warming

The Loess Plateau is a fragile ecological zone that is sensitive to climate change. The response, adaptation, and feedback of tree growth in forest ecosystems to global warming and CO2 enrichment are urgent scientific issues. Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) is an important indicator for understanding forest ecosystem adaptability to climate change and CO2 enrichment. In this study, tree-ring width, tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C), and iWUE of P. tabulaeformis Carr. were established. Climate response analysis showed that temperature was the main limiting factor affecting radial tree growth and that relative humidity significantly affected the stable carbon isotope fractionation of tree rings. During 1645–2011, the iWUE increased by 27.1%. The responses of iWUE to climate factors and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) showed that the long-term variation in iWUE was affected by Ca, which could explain 69% of iWUE variation, and temperature was the main factor causing iWUE interannual variation. The ecosystem of P. tabulaeformis showed a positive response to rising Ca, as its carbon sequestration capacity increased. In response to global warming and CO2 enrichment, rising Ca promoted increases in iWUE but ultimately failed to offset the negative impact of warming on tree growth in the study area.

Eucalyptus obliqua tall forest in cool, temperate Tasmania becomes a carbon source during a protracted warm spell in November 2017

Tasmania experienced a protracted warm spell in November 2017. Temperatures were lower than those usually characterising heatwaves. Nonetheless the warm spell represented an extreme anomaly based on the historical local climate. Eddy covariance measurements of fluxes in a Eucalyptus obliqua tall forest at Warra, southern Tasmania during the warm spell were compared with measurements in the same period of the previous year when temperatures were closer to average. Compared with previous year, the warm spell resulted in 31% lower gross primary productivity (GPP), 58% higher ecosystem respiration (ER) and the forest switching from a carbon sink to a source. Significantly higher net radiation received during the warm spell was dissipated by increased latent heat flux, while canopy conductance was comparable with the previous year. Stomatal regulation to limit water loss was therefore unlikely as the reason for the lower GPP during the warm spell. Temperatures during the warm spell were supra-optimal for GPP for 75% of the daylight hours. The decline in GPP at Warra during the warm spell was therefore most likely due to temperatures exceeding the optimum for GPP. All else being equal, these forests will be weaker carbon sinks if, as predicted, warming events become more common.

Heat and drought impact on carbon exchange in an age-sequence of temperate pine forests

BACKGROUND

Most North American temperate forests are plantation or regrowth forests, which are actively managed. These forests are in different stages of their growth cycles and their ability to sequester atmospheric carbon is affected by extreme weather events. In this study, the impact of heat and drought events on carbon sequestration in an age-sequence (80, 45, and 17 years as of 2019) of eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) forests in southern Ontario, Canada was examined using eddy covariance flux measurements from 2003 to 2019.

RESULTS

Over the 17-year study period, the mean annual values of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) were 180 ± 96, 538 ± 177 and 64 ± 165 g C m^-2 yr^-1 in the 80-, 45- and 17-year-old stands, respectively, with the highest annual carbon sequestration rate observed in the 45-year-old stand. We found that air temperature (Ta) was the dominant control on NEP in all three different-aged stands and drought, which was a limiting factor for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystems respiration (RE), had a smaller impact on NEP. However, the simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought events during the early growing seasons or over the consecutive years had a significant negative impact on annual NEP in all three forests. We observed a similar trend of NEP decline in all three stands over three consecutive years that experienced extreme weather events, with 2016 being a hot and dry, 2017 being a dry, and 2018 being a hot year. The youngest stand became a net source of carbon for all three of these years and the oldest stand became a small source of carbon for the first time in 2018 since observations started in 2003. However, in 2019, all three stands reverted to annual net carbon sinks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study results indicate that the timing, frequency and concurrent or consecutive occurrence of extreme weather events may have significant implications for carbon sequestration in temperate conifer forests in Eastern North America. This study is one of few globally available to provide long-term observational data on carbon exchanges in different-aged temperate plantation forests. It highlights interannual variability in carbon fluxes and enhances our understanding of the responses of these forest ecosystems to extreme weather events. Study results will help in developing climate resilient and sustainable forestry practices to offset atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and improving simulation of carbon exchange processes in terrestrial ecosystem models.

Assessing model performance via the most limiting environmental driver in two differently stressed pine stands

Climate change will impact forest productivity worldwide. Forecasting the magnitude of such impact, with multiple environmental stressors changing simultaneously, is only possible with the help of process-based models. In order to assess their performance, such models require careful evaluation against measurements. However, direct comparison of model outputs against observational data is often not reliable, as models may provide the right answers due to the wrong reasons. This would severely hinder forecasting abilities under unprecedented climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology for model assessment, which supplements the traditional output-to-observation model validation. It evaluates model performance through its ability to reproduce observed seasonal changes of the most limiting environmental driver (MLED) for a given process, here daily gross primary productivity (GPP). We analyzed seasonal changes of the MLED for GPP in two contrasting pine forests, the Mediterranean Pinus halepensis Mill. Yatir (Israel) and the boreal Pinus sylvestris L. Hyytiälä (Finland) from three years of eddy-covariance flux data. Then, we simulated the same period with a state-of-the-art process-based simulation model (LandscapeDNDC). Finally, we assessed if the model was able to reproduce both GPP observations and MLED seasonality. We found that the model reproduced the seasonality of GPP in both stands, but it was slightly overestimated without site-specific fine-tuning. Interestingly, although LandscapeDNDC properly captured the main MLED in Hyytiälä (temperature) and in Yatir (soil water availability), it failed to reproduce high-temperature and high-vapor pressure limitations of GPP in Yatir during spring and summer. We deduced that the most likely reason for this divergence is an incomplete description of stomatal behavior. In summary, this study validates the MLED approach as a model evaluation tool, and opens up new possibilities for model improvement.

Differential responses to two heatwave intensities in a Mediterranean citrus orchard are identified by combining measurements of fluorescence and carbonyl sulfide (COS) and CO2 uptake

The impact of extreme climate episodes such as heatwaves on plants physiological functioning and survival may depend on the event intensity, which requires quantification. We unraveled the distinct impacts of intense (HW) and intermediate (INT) heatwave days on carbon uptake, and the underlying changes in the photosynthetic system, in a Mediterranean citrus orchard using leaf active (pulse amplitude modulation; PAM) and canopy level passive (sun-induced; SIF) fluorescence measurements, together with CO₂ , water vapor, and carbonyl sulfide (COS) exchange measurements. Compared to normal (N) days, gross CO₂ uptake fluxes (gross primary production, GPP) were significantly reduced during HW days, but only slightly decreased during INT days. By contrast, COS uptake flux and SIF_A (at 760 nm) decreased during both HW and INT days, which was reflected in leaf internal CO₂ concentrations and in nonphotochemical quenching, respectively. Intense (HW) heatwave conditions also resulted in a substantial decrease in electron transport rates, measured using leaf-scale fluorescence, and an increase in the fractional energy consumption in photorespiration. Using the combined proxy approach, we demonstrate a differential ecosystem response to different heatwave intensities, which allows the trees to preserve carbon assimilation during INT days but not during HW days.

Montane forest productivity across a semiarid climatic gradient

High-elevation montane forests are disproportionately important to carbon sequestration in semiarid climates where low elevations are dry and characterized by low carbon density ecosystems. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change with seasonal implications for photosynthesis and forest growth. As a result, we leveraged eddy covariance data from six evergreen conifer forest sites in the semiarid western United States to extrapolate the status of carbon sequestration within a framework of projected warming and drying. At colder locations, the seasonal evolution of gross primary productivity (GPP) was characterized by a single broad maximum during the summer that corresponded to snow melt-derived moisture and a transition from winter dormancy to spring activity. Conversely, winter dormancy was transient at warmer locations, and GPP was responsive to both winter and summer precipitation such that two distinct GPP maxima were separated by a period of foresummer drought. This resulted in a predictable sequence of primary limiting factors to GPP beginning with air temperature in winter and proceeding to moisture and leaf area during the summer. Due to counteracting winter (positive) and summer (negative) GPP responses to warming, leaf area index and moisture availability were the best predictors of annual GPP differences across sites. Overall, mean annual GPP was greatest at the warmest site due to persistent vegetation photosynthetic activity throughout the winter. These results indicate that the trajectory of this region's carbon sequestration will be sensitive to reduced or delayed summer precipitation, especially if coupled to snow drought and earlier soil moisture recession, but summer precipitation changes remain highly uncertain. Given the demonstrated potential for seasonally offsetting responses to warming, we project that decadal semiarid montane forest carbon sequestration will remain relatively stable in the absence of severe disturbance.

Effects of drought and meteorological forcing on carbon and water fluxes in Nordic forests during the dry summer of 2018

The Nordic region was subjected to severe drought in 2018 with a particularly long-lasting and large soil water deficit in Denmark, Southern Sweden and Estonia. Here, we analyse the impact of the drought on carbon and water fluxes in 11 forest ecosystems of different composition: spruce, pine, mixed and deciduous. We assess the impact of drought on fluxes by estimating the difference (anomaly) between year 2018 and a reference year without drought. Unexpectedly, the evaporation was only slightly reduced during 2018 compared to the reference year at two sites while it increased or was nearly unchanged at all other sites. This occurred under a 40 to 60% reduction in mean surface conductance and the concurrent increase in evaporative demand due to the warm and dry weather. The anomaly in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 93% explained by a multilinear regression with the anomaly in heterotrophic respiration and the relative precipitation deficit as independent variables. Most of the variation (77%) was explained by the heterotrophic component. Six out of 11 forests reduced their annual NEP with more than 50 g C m-2 yr-1 during 2018 as compared to the reference year. The NEP anomaly ranged between -389 and +74 g C m-2 yr-1 with a median value of -59 g C m-2 yr-1. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

Topography influences species-specific patterns of seasonal primary productivity in a semiarid montane forest

Semiarid forests in the southwestern USA are generally restricted to mountain regions where complex terrain adds to the challenge of characterizing stand productivity. Among the heterogeneous features of these ecosystems, topography represents an important control on system-level processes including snow accumulation and melt. This basic relationship between geology and hydrology affects radiation and water balances within the forests, with implications for canopy structure and function across a range of spatial scales. In this study, we quantify the effect of topographic aspect on primary productivity by observing the response of two codominant native tree species to seasonal changes in the timing and magnitude of energy and water inputs throughout a montane headwater catchment in Arizona, USA. On average, soil moisture on north-facing aspects remained higher during the spring and early summer compared with south-facing aspects. Repeated measurements of net carbon assimilation (Anet) showed that Pinus ponderosa C. Lawson was sensitive to this difference, while Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco was not. Irrespective of aspect, we observed seasonally divergent patterns at the species level where P. ponderosa maintained significantly greater Anet into the fall despite more efficient water use by P. menziesii individuals during that time. As a result, this study at the southern extent of the geographical P. menziesii distribution suggests that this species could increase water-use efficiency as a response to future warming and/or drying, but at lower rates of production relative to the more drought-adapted P. ponderosa. At the sub-landscape scale, opposing aspects served as a mesocosm of current versus anticipated climate conditions. In this way, these results also constrain the potential for changing carbon sequestration patterns from Pinus-dominated landscapes due to forecasted changes in seasonal moisture availability.