Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas

Seasonal-Spatial Distribution Variations and Predictions of Loliolus beka and Loliolus uyii in the East China Sea Region: Implications from Climate Change Scenarios

Global climate change profoundly impacts the East China Sea ecosystem and poses a major challenge to fishery management in this region. In addition, closely related species with low catches are often not distinguished in fishery production and relevant data are commonly merged in statistics and fishing logbooks, making it challenging to accurately predict their habitat distribution range. Here, merged fisheries-independent data of the closely related squid Loliolus beka (Sasaki, 1929) and Loliolus uyii (Wakiya and Ishikawa, 1921) were used to explore the construction and prediction performance of species distribution models. Data in 2018 to 2019 from the southern Yellow and East China Seas were used to identify the seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics of both species, revealing a boundary line at 29.00° N for L. uyii during the autumn, with the highest average individual weight occurring during the summer, with both larvae and juveniles occurring during the autumn. Thus, the life history of L. uyii can be divided into winter-spring nursery and summer-autumn spawning periods. L. beka showed a preference for inshore areas (15-60 m) during the summer and offshore areas (32.00-78.00 m) during the winter. High-value areas of both species included inshore areas of the southern Yellow and mid-East China Seas during the autumn, enlarging during the spring to include central areas of the survey region, before significantly decreasing during the summer. Therefore, this study provides both a novel perspective for modeling biological habitat distribution with limited data and a scientific basis for the adjustment of fishery resource management and conservation measures in the context of climate change.

Innovative and practical tools for monitoring and assessing biodiversity status and impacts of multiple human pressures in marine systems

Human activities at sea can produce pressures and cumulative effects on ecosystem components that need to be monitored and assessed in a cost-effective manner. Five Horizon European projects have joined forces to collaboratively increase our knowledge and skills to monitor and assess the ocean in an innovative way, assisting managers and policy-makers in taking decisions to maintain sustainable activities at sea. Here, we present and discuss the status of some methods revised during a summer school, aiming at better management of coasts and seas. We include novel methods to monitor the coastal and ocean waters (e.g. environmental DNA, drones, imaging and artificial intelligence, climate modelling and spatial planning) and innovative tools to assess the status (e.g. cumulative impacts assessment, multiple pressures, Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool (NEAT), ecosystem services assessment or a new unifying approach). As a concluding remark, some of the most important challenges ahead are assessing the pros and cons of novel methods, comparing them with benchmark technologies and integrating these into long-standing time series for data continuity. This requires transition periods and careful planning, which can be covered through an intense collaboration of current and future European projects on marine biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Modeling tropical tuna shifts: An inflated power logit regression approach

We introduce a new class of zero-or-one inflated power logit (IPL) regression models, which serve as a versatile tool for analyzing bounded continuous data with observations at a boundary. These models are applied to explore the effects of climate changes on the distribution of tropical tuna within the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that our modeling approach is adequate and capable of handling the outliers in the data. It exhibited superior performance compared to rival models in both diagnostic analysis and regarding the inference robustness. We offer a user-friendly method for fitting IPL regression models in practical applications.

Elevated fish densities extend kilometres from oil and gas platforms

Thousands of offshore oil and gas platforms have been installed throughout the world's oceans and more structures are being installed as part of the transition to renewable energy. These structures increase the availability of ecological niches by providing hard substrate in midwater and complex 3D habitat on the seafloor. This can lead to 'hotspots' of biodiversity, or increased densities of flora and fauna, which potentially spill over into the local area. However, the distances over which these higher densities extend (the 'range of influence') can be highly variable. Fish aggregate at such structures, but the range of influence and any implications for wider fish populations, are unclear. We investigated the relationship between fish and platform areal densities using high resolution fisheries acoustic data. Data were collected in the waters surrounding the vessel exclusions zones around 16 oil and gas platforms in the North Sea, and throughout the wider area. We estimated densities of schooling fish using echo-integration, and densities of non-schooling fish using echo-counting. At 10 platforms, non-schooling fish densities were elevated near the platform relative to background levels in the equivalent wider area. The range of influence, defined here as the range to which fish densities were elevated above background, varied from 0.8 to 23 km. In areas of high platform density, fish schools were encountered more often, and non-schooling fish densities were higher, when controlling for other sources of environmental variation. This is the first time such long-range effects have been identified; previously, ranges of influence have been reported in the order of just 10s-100s of metres. These findings suggest that the environmental impact of these structures may extend further than previously thought, which may be relevant in the context of upcoming management decisions around the decommissioning of these structures.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Divergent perspectives on the synergistic impacts of thermal-chemical stress on aquatic biota within the framework of climate change scenarios

Climate change, including global warming, leads to rising temperatures in aquatic ecosystems, which is one of the numerous repercussions it brings. Furthermore, water warming can indirectly impact aquatic organisms by modifying the toxicity levels of pollutants. Nevertheless, numerous studies have explored the potential impacts of chemical stress on aquatic biota, but little is known about how such chemicals and toxins interact with climate change factors, especially elevated temperatures. As such, this review paper focuses on exploring the potential effects of thermochemical stress on a wide sector of aquatic organisms, including aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates, in various aquatic ecosystems (freshwater and marine systems). Herein, the objective of this study is to explore the most up-to-date the impact of water warming (without chemical stress) and thermochemical stress on various biochemical and physiological processes in aquatic fauna and how this greatly affects biodiversity and sustainability. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand and evaluate this synergistic mechanism and its potential hazardous impacts. However, we need further investigations and scientific reports to address this serious environmental issue in order to confront anthropogenic pollutants regarding climate change and chemical pollution risks in the near future and subsequently find sustainable solutions for them.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Increasing spread rates of tropical non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea

Warming as well as species introductions have increased over the past centuries, however a link between cause and effect of these two phenomena is still unclear. Here we use distribution records (1813-2023) to reconstruct the invasion histories of marine non-native macrophytes, macroalgae and seagrasses, in the Mediterranean Sea. We defined expansion as the maximum linear rate of spread (km year-1) and the accumulation of occupied grid cells (50 km2) over time and analyzed the relation between expansion rates and the species' thermal conditions at its native distribution range. Our database revealed a marked increase in the introductions and spread rates of non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean Sea since the 1960s, notably intensifying after the 1990s. During the beginning of this century species velocity of invasion has increased to 26 ± 9 km2 year-1, with an acceleration in the velocity of invasion of tropical/subtropical species, exceeding those of temperate and cosmopolitan macrophytes. The highest spread rates since then were observed in macrophytes coming from native regions with minimum SSTs two to three degrees warmer than in the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, most non-native macrophytes in the Mediterranean (>80%) do not exceed the maximum temperature of their range of origin, whereas approximately half of the species are exposed to lower minimum SST in the Mediterranean than in their native range. This indicates that tropical/subtropical macrophytes might be able to expand as they are not limited by the colder Mediterranean SST due to the plasticity of their lower thermal limit. These results suggest that future warming will increase the thermal habitat available for thermophilic species in the Mediterranean Sea and continue to favor their expansion.

Variable trends in the distribution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Celtic seas

Despite decades of active fisheries management, many stocks of Atlantic cod in its southern range are in a depleted state and mortality estimates remain high. Recovery of these stocks, as defined by management areas, could be confounded by cod distributions shifting outside of these areas. Here, we assess data from internationally coordinated trawl surveys to investigate the distribution of three cod stocks in the Celtic Seas ecoregion, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, and West of Scotland, from 1985 to 2021. We mapped cod densities, analyzed trends in mean weighted depth and bottom temperature, and calculated the center of gravity and equivalent area of the stocks. The distribution of the West of Scotland stock shifted north and east, spilling into the North Sea, while the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea stocks shifted west. Each stock showed decreasing trends in equivalent area, but there were no clear trends in the average depth occupied by the fish. There was no apparent relationship between temperature and the distribution of cod, as bottom temperature varied little from 1993 to 2021. Although Irish Sea cod showed a shift into warmer water, this was due to changes in survey distribution. The shift in distribution of the West of Scotland cod stock towards the North Sea whilst impairing local recovery provides further justification for the recent definition of its incorporation into a larger stock unit that includes the northwest of the North Sea. The Irish Sea and Celtic Sea cod stocks are neither shifting northwards, nor into deeper waters, but remained within current boundaries. This suggests that recent temperature conditions did not affect their distribution, but this may change as temperatures increase towards the limit for reproduction.

Thresholds of seascape fauna composition along gradients of human pressures and natural conditions to inform marine spatial planning

Knowledge about the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic activities and environmental conditions on marine ecosystems is incomplete and details are lacking. Compositional community changes can occur along gradients, and community data can be used to assess the state of community resilience against combined impacts of variables representing human pressures and environmental conditions. Here we use a machine learning approach, i.e., Gradient Forest, to identify explanatory variable thresholds and select relevant epibenthic fauna and demersal fish species, which can be used to inform an integrated management of multiple human pressures and conservation planning in the southern North Sea. We show that a broad selection of anthropogenic and environmental variables, such as natural disturbance of the seafloor and euphotic depth, determined community composition thresholds of 67 epibenthic fauna and 39 demersal fish species along environmental conditions and human pressure gradients in the southern North Sea between 2010 and 2020. This has the potential to inform resilience assessments under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to promote and retain a good environmental status of marine ecosystems.

Framing future trajectories of human activities in the German North Sea to inform cumulative effects assessments and marine spatial planning

The global industrialization of seascapes and climate change leads to an increased risk of severe impacts on marine ecosystem functioning. While broad scale spatio-temporal assessments of human pressures on marine ecosystems become more available, future trajectories of human activities at regional and local scales remain often speculative. Here we introduce a stepwise process to integrate bottom-up and expert-driven approaches for scenario development to inform cumulative effects assessments and related marine spatial planning (MSP). Following this guidance, we developed optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios for major human pressures in the German North Sea such as bottom trawling, offshore wind, nutrient discharge, and aggregate extraction. The forecasts comprise quantitative estimates in relation to spatial footprint, intensity, and technological advancements of those pressures for the years 2030 and 2060. Using network analyses, we assessed interactions of the current and future trajectories of pressures thereby accounting for climate change and the growing need for marine conservation. Our results show that future scenarios of spatial distributions could be developed for activities that are spatially refined and included in the current MSP process. Further our detailed analyses of interdependencies of development components revealed that forecasts regarding specific targets and intensities of human activities depend also strongly on future technological advances. For fisheries and nutrient discharge estimates were less certain due to critical socio-ecological interactions in the marine and terrestrial realm. Overall, our approach unraveled such trade-offs and sources of uncertainties. Yet, our quantitative predictive scenarios were built under a sustainability narrative on a profound knowledge of interactions with other sectors and components in and outside the management boundaries. We advocate that they enable a better preparedness for future changes of cumulative pressure on marine ecosystems.

Gadiform species display dietary shifts in the Celtic Sea

Global changes, through their impacts on ecosystem trophic structures, are behind regime shifts and cascading effects, and could result in the reorganization of whole ecosystems. The Celtic Sea is a temperate sea at risk of the above because of the interplay between climate change and fisheries. This sea has only displayed slight changes in species diversity between the late 20th century and the present day. However, this apparent stability in species diversity could be hiding structural transformations, including the rearrangement of trophic relationships. Historical stomach content database offers the opportunity to investigate changes in ecosystem trophic structure. Based on such database, this study explored shifts in the feeding habits of gadiform species in the Celtic Sea in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2010s. To this end, it examined dietary generalism and composition for four top predator fish species. During the target period, generalists maintained their diets, while specialists adopted more generalist diets. There were also decreases in frequencies of occurrence of certain fishes within the diets of gadiform species. These recent changes in trophic structure organization have likely been caused by the influence of global changes on both top-down and bottom-up processes that occurred in the Celtic Sea.

Boreal and Lusitanian species display trophic niche variation in temperate waters

Climate change has non-linear impacts on species distributions and abundance that have cascading effects on ecosystem structure and function. Among them are shifts in trophic interactions within communities. Sites found at the interface between two or more biogeographical regions, where species with diverse thermal preferenda are assembled, are areas of strong interest to study the impact of climate change on communities' interactions. This study examined variation in trophic structure in the Celtic Sea, a temperate environment that hosts a mixture of cold-affiliated Boreal species and warm-affiliated Lusitanian species. Using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios, trophic niche area, width, and position were investigated for 10 abundant and commercially important demersal fish species across space and time. In general, the niches of Boreal species appear to be contracting while those of Lusitanian species expand, although there are some fluctuations among species. These results provide evidence that trophic niches can undergo rapid modifications over short time periods (study duration: 2014-2021) and that this process may be conditioned by species thermal preferenda. Boreal species displayed spatial variation in trophic niche width and seem to be facing increased competition with Lusitanian species for food resources. These findings underscore the need to utilize indicators related to species trophic ecology to track the ecosystem alterations induced by climate change. Such indicators could reveal that the vulnerability of temperate ecosystems is currently being underestimated.

Fishery catch records support machine learning-based prediction of illegal fishing off US West Coast

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major problem worldwide, often made more challenging by a lack of at-sea and shoreside monitoring of commercial fishery catches. Off the US West Coast, as in many places, a primary concern for enforcement and management is whether vessels are illegally fishing in locations where they are not permitted to fish. We explored the use of supervised machine learning analysis in a partially observed fishery to identify potentially illicit behaviors when vessels did not have observers on board. We built classification models (random forest and gradient boosting ensemble tree estimators) using labeled data from nearly 10,000 fishing trips for which we had landing records (i.e., catch data) and observer data. We identified a set of variables related to catch (e.g., catch weights and species) and delivery port that could predict, with 97% accuracy, whether vessels fished in state versus federal waters. Notably, our model performances were robust to inter-annual variability in the fishery environments during recent anomalously warm years. We applied these models to nearly 60,000 unobserved landing records and identified more than 500 instances in which vessels may have illegally fished in federal waters. This project was developed at the request of fisheries enforcement investigators, and now an automated system analyzes all new unobserved landings records to identify those in need of additional investigation for potential violations. Similar approaches informed by the spatial preferences of species landed may support monitoring and enforcement efforts in any number of partially observed, or even totally unobserved, fisheries globally.

Mediterranean fish communities are struggling to adapt to global warming. Evidence from the western coast of Italy

Climate change has significant impacts on marine ecosystems, resulting in disruptions in biological interactions, shifts in community composition, and changes in the physiology of fish and other marine organisms. In this study conducted in the central Mediterranean Sea, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) was employed as an indicator to investigate the climatological factors influencing the fish community. The MTC, which utilizes species-preferred temperatures, was calculated using bottom temperature (BT) data weighted against scientific catches. The estimated MTC increasing rates were 0.01 °C year-1 for the entire community, 0.017 °C year-1 for the shelf break, and 0.004 °C year-1 for the continental slope assemblage. We found that MTC is increasing at a lower rate compared to BT, suggesting a progressive under-adaptation of the fish community that seems not fully able to keep up with the ongoing pace of warming. The study identified sea surface temperature and bottom temperature as key drivers of changes in fish community composition. Notably, the fish community composition exhibited drastic changes over the studied period, and we suggest that the MTC can be a useful index to monitor such changes within the context of the EU's climate change adaptation strategy.

Marine heatwaves are not a dominant driver of change in demersal fishes

Marine heatwaves have been linked to negative ecological effects in recent decades1,2. If marine heatwaves regularly induce community reorganization and biomass collapses in fishes, the consequences could be catastrophic for ecosystems, fisheries and human communities3,4. However, the extent to which marine heatwaves have negative impacts on fish biomass or community composition, or even whether their effects can be distinguished from natural and sampling variability, remains unclear. We investigated the effects of 248 sea-bottom heatwaves from 1993 to 2019 on marine fishes by analysing 82,322 hauls (samples) from long-term scientific surveys of continental shelf ecosystems in North America and Europe spanning the subtropics to the Arctic. Here we show that the effects of marine heatwaves on fish biomass were often minimal and could not be distinguished from natural and sampling variability. Furthermore, marine heatwaves were not consistently associated with tropicalization (gain of warm-affiliated species) or deborealization (loss of cold-affiliated species) in these ecosystems. Although steep declines in biomass occasionally occurred after marine heatwaves, these were the exception, not the rule. Against the highly variable backdrop of ocean ecosystems, marine heatwaves have not driven biomass change or community turnover in fish communities that support many of the world's largest and most productive fisheries.

Changes in overwintering ground of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) based on MaxEnt and GARP models: A case study of the southern Yellow Sea stock

Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis), a commercially essential fish commonly caught in China and South Korea, is now facing a severe decline in resources. The recruitment and surplus of L. polyactis depend selecting a suitable marine environment for overwintering. However, the international overwintering migration habit of L. polyactis limits the investigation of its overwintering environment preferences and suitable grounds. In this study, based on the distribution data of L. polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea in winter from 2010 to 2019 and ocean remote sensing data such as sea bottom temperature (SBT), sea bottom salinity, chlorophyll-a concentration and water depth (Depth), we used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) models to investigate the overwintering grounds of the southern Yellow Sea stock (SYS). The jackknife test was used to assess the importance of various environmental factors. For modelling the overwintering ground distribution of SYS, the area under the curve values of both models ​were higher than 0.9. The overwintering ground was at 32°10' N-33°48' N, 122°30' E-125°00' E. The direction of its distribution was consistent with the Yellow Sea Warm Current in the southern Yellow Sea during the winter. Compared with the suitable overwintering area during 2010-2014, the highly appropriate overwintering area for SYS to overwinter decreased significantly during 2015-2019, showing a trend of moving to the east and north, related to the increase in fishing pressure and strengthening of the Yellow Sea Warm Current in recent years. Depth was the most significant factor for SYS overwintering, followed by SBT. The overwintering ground was at a depth of 40-65 m during the two periods. Additionally, the suitability of overwintering grounds in the coastal waters of south-western South Korea has gradually increased. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies to manage L. polyactis resources under the China-South Korea Fisheries Agreement.

Environmental and climate variability drive population size of annual penaeid shrimp in a large lagoonal estuary

Species with short life spans frequently show a close relationship between population abundance and environmental variation making these organisms potential indicator species of climatic variability. White (Penaeus setiferus), brown (P. aztecus), and pink (P. duorarum) penaeid shrimp typically have an annual life history and are of enormous ecological, cultural, and economic value to the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico. Within North Carolina, all three species rely on the Pamlico Sound, a large estuarine system that straddles Cape Hatteras, one of the most significant climate and biogeographic breaks in the world, as a nursery area. These characteristics make penaeid species within the Pamlico Sound a critical species-habitat complex for assessing climate impacts on fisheries. However, a comprehensive analysis of the influence of the environmental conditions that influence penaeid shrimp populations has been lacking in North Carolina. In this study, we used more than 30 years of data from two fishery-independent trawl surveys in the Pamlico Sound to examine the spatial distribution and abundance of adult brown, white, and pink shrimp and the environmental drivers associated with adult shrimp abundance and juvenile brown shrimp recruitment using numerical models. Brown shrimp recruitment models demonstrate that years with higher temperature, salinity, offshore windstress, and North Atlantic Oscillation phase predict increased abundance of juveniles. Additionally, models predicting adult brown, white, and pink shrimp abundance illustrate the importance of winter temperatures, windstress, salinity, the North Atlantic Oscillation index, and the abundance of spawning adult populations from the previous year on shrimp abundance. Our findings show a high degree of variability in shrimp abundance is explained by climate and environmental variation and indicate the importance of understanding these relationships in order to predict the impact of climate variability within ecosystems and develop climate-based adaptive management strategies for marine populations.

Implications of taxonomic misidentification for future invasion predictions: Evidence from one of the most harmful invasive marine algae

Invasive species have been a focus of concern in recent decades, becoming more problematic due to the cumulative impacts of climate change. Understanding the interactions among stress factors is essential to anticipate ecosystems' responses. Hereby, robust modeling frameworks must be able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future of their potential distribution. These studies are essential for the management of invasions and to be prepared for the future we are facing. Here we demonstrate that taxonomic misidentifications may lead to absolutely erroneous predictions, by using as an example one of the worst invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea (Lophocladia lallemandii), which has been misidentified for three decades and now is correctly identified. Consequently, and bearing in mind overall trends in species misidentification due to the loss of taxonomic expertise and the presence of cryptic species, among others, attempts to understand and predict species involved in invasion processes must always first consider taxonomic studies.

Climate change and commercial fishing practices codetermine survival of a long-lived seabird

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.

Quantifying fish range shifts across poorly defined management boundaries

Management regimes of marine resources that rely on spatial boundaries might be poorly adapted to climate change shifts in species distributions. This is of specific concern for the management of fish stocks that cross management jurisdictions, known as shared stocks. Transitioning to dynamic rules in spatial management has been suggested as a solution for mismatches between species distributions and the spatial boundaries. However, in many cases spatial boundaries are not clearly drawn, hampering such transitions. Here, we use black sea bass (Centropristis striata), summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) as case studies to explore different approaches to designing spatial regulatory units to facilitate the adaptation of fisheries management to shifting distributions of shared stocks. First, we determine the yearly distribution of each stock within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone from 1951 to 2019 during Fall and Spring sampling seasons. Second, we explore two approaches for drawing regulatory units based on state waters and historical landings. Finally, we estimate each state's proportion of the stock's distribution and compare historical and recent values. We show that the distribution of all three stocks has changed relative to the years used to determine the current quota allocation across states, with an overall gain for central-northern states at the expense of the southernmost states. In terms of the distribution of allocation, we find that, while seasonal differences exist, the biggest differences in the proportion of the stock spatial distribution attributed to each state come from the method for designing regulatory units. Here, we show that the method used to define allocation units can have meaningful impacts on resulting adaptive policy. As climate change-driven conflicts in fishing resource allocation are expected to increase and deepen around the world, we provide a replicable approach to make an informed and transparent choice to support data-driven decision-making.

Benthic ecosystem functioning under climate change: modelling the bioturbation potential for benthic key species in the southern North Sea

Climate change affects the marine environment on many levels with profound consequences for numerous biological, chemical, and physical processes. Benthic bioturbation is one of the most relevant and significant processes for benthic-pelagic coupling and biogeochemical fluxes in marine sediments, such as the uptake, transport, and remineralisation of organic carbon. However, only little is known about how climate change affects the distribution and intensity of benthic bioturbation of a shallow temperate shelf sea system such as the southern North Sea. In this study, we modelled and projected changes in bioturbation potential (BP_p) under a continuous global warming scenario for seven southern North Sea key bioturbators: Abra alba, Amphiura filiformis, Callianassa subterranea, Echinocardium cordatum, Goniada maculata, Nephtys hombergii, and Nucula nitidosa. Spatial changes in species bioturbation intensity are simulated for the years 2050 and 2099 based on one species distribution model per species driven by bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B. Local mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately decrease by 1.7. Our results show that the considered benthic species are strongly influenced by the temperature increase. Although the total BP remained rather constant in the southern North Sea, the BP_p for four out of seven species was projected to increase, mainly due to a simultaneous northward range expansion, while the BP_p in the core area of the southern North Sea declined for the same species. Bioturbation of the most important species, Amphiura filiformis and Echinocardium cordatum, showed no substantial change in the spatial distribution, but over time. The BP_p of E. cordatum remained almost constant until 2099, while the BP_p of A. filiformis decreased by 41%. The northward expansion of some species and the decline of most species in the south led to a change of relative contribution to bioturbation in the southern North Sea. These results indicate that some of the selected key bioturbators in the southern North Sea might partly compensate the decrease in bioturbation by others. But especially in the depositional areas where bioturbation plays a specifically important role for ecosystem functioning, bioturbation potential declined until 2099, which might affect the biochemical cycling in sediments of some areas of the southern North Sea.

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.

Can the Life History Trait Divergence of Two Extremes of a Cold-Water Genus Distribution Offer Evidence for Their Vulnerability to Sea Warming?

Cold- and deep-water species such as Molva species show low resilience to anthropogenic pressures, and they become particularly vulnerable at the warm edges of their distribution. In this study, the poorly documented Mediterranean ling (Molva macrophthalma) population from the northwestern Mediterranean Sea was analysed. This area is considered a cul-de-sac in a sea-warming hotspot, where M. macrophthalma shows a low population health status and is experiencing a climate-related reduction in abundance. Several life-history traits (length at maturity, reproductive cycle, fecundity style, oocyte recruitment pattern, and breeding strategy) are here described for the first time to evaluate the reproductive performance (oocyte diameter and production) in relation to the fish condition status (the HSI and relative condition index). Additionally, the results are compared with those of a population of a similar species, the blue ling (Molva dypterygia), inhabiting the cool edge of its distribution, hypothesised to have a higher condition status. Our results indicate that M. macrophthalma is a capital breeder with restricted secondary growth recruitment and group-synchronous oocyte development. In relative terms, the stressed southern M. macrophthalma exhibited a worse condition, a lower investment in reproduction, a smaller size at maturity, larger but fewer primary growth oocytes, and a smaller size-standardized production of secondary growth oocytes than the northern M. dypterygia. Significant differences in the secondary growth oocyte recruitment were also found. These findings reinforce the environment’s role in shaping the reproductive potential and condition status. Altogether, this study suggests high sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures for both species, and, especially for Mediterranean ling, it shows the importance of introducing monitoring and conservation measures to ensure the sustainability of its populations.

Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.

Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System

The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

A climate-resilient marine conservation network for Canada

Climate change and biodiversity loss are twin crises that are driving global marine conservation efforts. However, if unaccounted for, climate change can undermine the efficacy of such efforts. Despite this, integration of climate change adaptation and resilience into spatial marine conservation and management has been limited in Canada and elsewhere. With climate change impacts becoming increasingly severe, now is the time to anticipate and reduce impacts wherever possible. We provide five recommendations for an inclusive, proactive, climate-ready approach for Canada’s growing marine conservation network: (1) integrating climate-resilience as a universal objective of the Canadian Marine Conservation Network, creating and implementing (2) national transdisciplinary working groups with representation from all knowledge holders and (3) necessary tools that integrate climate change into conservation design, (4) defining operational and climate-relevant monitoring and management objectives, and (5) strengthening communication and increasing knowledge exchange around the roles and benefits of protected areas within government and towards the public. Canada’s extensive marine and coastal areas reflect national and international responsibility to engage on this issue. Canada is well positioned to assume a leading role in climate change adaptation for marine conservation and help accelerate progress towards international commitments around mitigating ongoing biodiversity loss and climate change.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Decline in Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus in the North Sea: Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change

Anarhichas lupus is a boreo-Arctic species with biological characteristics often associated with vulnerability to overexploitation. Although not commercially targeted in the North Sea, A. lupus is a bycatch species in mixed demersal fisheries. Here we provide an overview of the status of A. lupus in the North Sea, as observed from commercial landings and fishery-independent trawl survey data. A. lupus was once common across much of the central and northern North Sea but, since the 1980s, have declined in abundance, demographic characteristics (reduced size) and geographical range, with the shallower and more southerly parts of its range most impacted. A. lupus is still relatively frequent in the northern North Sea, where fishing intensity, though decreasing, is high. Bycatch through fishing remains a potential threat and, considering the likely impacts of predicted climate change on cold-water species, risks of further regional depletion and/or range contraction remain. Whether or not A. lupus is able to re-establish viable populations in former habitat in UK coastal waters is unknown. Given the lack of data, the precautionary principle would suggest that manageable pressures be minimized where the species and its habitat are at risk of further impacts, and more regular assessments of population status be undertaken.

Disentangling tropicalization and deborealization in marine ecosystems under climate change

As climate change accelerates, species are shifting poleward and subtropical and tropical species are colonizing temperate environments.^1-3 A popular approach for characterizing such responses is the community temperature index (CTI), which tracks the mean thermal affinity of a community. Studies in marine,⁴ freshwater,⁵ and terrestrial⁶ ecosystems have documented increasing CTI under global warming. However, most studies have only linked increasing CTI to increases in warm-affinity species. Here, using long-term monitoring of marine fishes across the Northern Hemisphere, we decomposed CTI changes into four underlying processes-tropicalization (increasing warm-affinity), deborealization (decreasing cold-affinity), borealization (increasing cold-affinity), and detropicalization (decreasing warm-affinity)-for which we examined spatial variability and drivers. CTI closely tracked changes in sea surface temperature, increasing in 72% of locations. However, 31% of these increases were primarily due to decreases in cold-affinity species, i.e., deborealization. Thus, increases in warm-affinity species were prevalent, but not ubiquitous. Tropicalization was stronger in areas that were initially warmer, experienced greater warming, or were deeper, while deborealization was stronger in areas that were closer to human population centers or that had higher community thermal diversity. When CTI (and temperature) increased, species that decreased were more likely to be living closer to their upper thermal limits or to be commercially fished. Additionally, warm-affinity species that increased had smaller body sizes than those that decreased. Our results show that CTI changes arise from a variety of underlying community responses that are linked to environmental conditions, human impacts, community structure, and species characteristics.

A review of frameworks for using bryophytes as indicators of climate change with special emphasis on Sri Lankan bryoflora

The tropical island of Sri Lanka, with a land area of 65,610 km² and 1340 km of coastline, is highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, with detrimental effects on agriculture, water resources, human health, coastal zones, infrastructure, industry, and biodiversity. A general increase in temperature and precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and increase in weather-related natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, have been traced over the years. Bryophytes (liverworts, mosses, hornworts) occupy a pivotal position in the land plant evolution and form a unique part of the vegetation. Many taxa of bryophytes exhibit observable, distinct adaptations in response to changes in environmental conditions quickly. Bryophytes can be used to monitor climate change in two ways; (i) presence or absence in the ecosystem and (ii) changes in morphology and physiology that can be used for monitoring. Sri Lanka has a rich bryophyte flora consisting of 575 species of mosses, 338 species of liverworts, and 07 species of hornworts. It is estimated that 11% of mosses are endemic; there are no endemic thalloid liverworts or hornworts found in Sri Lanka, and the endemicity of leafy liverworts is yet to be investigated. The taxonomic status of endemic taxa and the biogeographic affinities of many taxa remain unexplored. Further, the potential use of bryophytes as indicators of climate change in Sri Lanka has not yet been investigated. This paper compiles the information on morphological and physiological responses of bryophytes to elevated temperature, increase in greenhouse gases, increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, and fluctuations in humidity. In the light of this gathered global knowledge, possible species of bryophytes to be used in assessing and predicting climate change and developing a climate change model in Sri Lanka are proposed. Asian bryophytes, in general, have poorly been represented in climate change literature. We believe that this knowledge will form the foundation for future research focused on climate change mitigation in other tropical and Asian countries.

Global assessment of marine and freshwater recreational fish reveals mismatch in climate change vulnerability and conservation effort

Recreational fisheries contribute substantially to the sociocultural and economic well-being of coastal and riparian regions worldwide, but climate change threatens their sustainability. Fishery managers require information on how climate change will impact key recreational species; however, the absence of a global assessment hinders both directed and widespread conservation efforts. In this study, we present the first global climate change vulnerability assessment of recreationally targeted fish species from marine and freshwater environments (including diadromous fishes). We use climate change projections and data on species' physiological and ecological traits to quantify and map global climate vulnerability and analyze these patterns alongside the indices of socioeconomic value and conservation effort to determine where efforts are sufficient and where they might fall short. We found that over 20% of recreationally targeted fishes are vulnerable to climate change under a high emission scenario. Overall, marine fishes had the highest number of vulnerable species, concentrated in regions with sensitive habitat types (e.g., coral reefs). However, freshwater fishes had higher proportions of species at risk from climate change, with concentrations in northern Europe, Australia, and southern Africa. Mismatches in conservation effort and vulnerability were found within all regions and life-history groups. A key pattern was that current conservation effort focused primarily on marine fishes of high socioeconomic value rather than on the freshwater and diadromous fishes that were predicted to be proportionately more vulnerable. While several marine regions were notably lacking in protection (e.g., Caribbean Sea, Banda Sea), only 19% of vulnerable marine species were without conservation effort. By contrast, 72% of freshwater fishes and 33% of diadromous fishes had no measures in place, despite their high vulnerability and cultural value. The spatial and taxonomic analyses presented here provide guidance for the future conservation and management of recreational fisheries as climate change progresses.

Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming

The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries.

Sustainable co-location solutions for offshore wind farms and fisheries need to account for socio-ecological trade-offs

The spatial expansion of offshore wind farms (OWFs) is key for the transition to a carbon free energy sector. In the North Sea, the sprawl of OWFs is regulated by marine spatial planning (MSP) and results in an increasing loss of space for other sectors such as fisheries. Understanding fisheries benefits of OWFs and mitigating the loss of fishing grounds is key for co-location solutions in MSP. For the German exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the North Sea we conducted a novel socio-ecological assessment of fisheries benefits which combines exploring potential spill-over from an OWF with an experimental brown crab (Cancer pagurus) pot fishery and an economic viability analysis of such a fishery. We arrayed a total of 205 baited pots along transects from an OWF located near the island of Helgoland. After a soaking time of 24 h we retrieved the pots and measured the carapace width (mm), weight (g), and sex of each individual crab. To conclude on cumulative spill-over potentials from all OWFs in the German EEZ and drivers of passive gear fisheries we analysed vessel monitoring system (VMS)-data and computed random forest regressions. Local spill-over mechanisms occurred up to distances of 300 to 500 m to the nearest turbines and revealed an increasing attraction of pot fishing activities to particular OWFs. This corresponds to the observation of constantly increasing fishing effort targeting brown crab likely due to both a growing international demand and stable resource populations at suitable habitats, including OWFs. Our break-even scenarios showed that beam trawlers have the capacities to conduct during summer an opportunistic but economically viable pot fishery. We argue that particularly in the North Sea, where space becomes limited, integrated assessments of the wider environmental and socio-economic effects of planning are crucial for a sustainable co-location of OWFs and fisheries.

Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production

Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1° latitude ×1° longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.

An Integrated Traits Resilience Assessment of Mediterranean fisheries landings

An increasing number of studies have been examining the functional configuration of biological communities or ecosystems using biological traits. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics and resilience of the traits composition in Mediterranean fisheries landings over 31 years (1985-2015). We transcribed the FAO Mediterranean landings dataset for 101 marine species into a dataset of 23 traits related to the life cycle, distribution, ecology and behaviour. Mediterranean mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was evaluated as a potential driver of the traits composition. Trait dynamics were evaluated both individually and holistically by developing an Integrated Traits Resilience Assessment (ITRA). ITRA is a variation of the Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA), a method to infer resilience dynamics and build stability landscapes of complex natural systems. Changes in landings trait dynamics were documented both for individual traits and for the entire traits 'system', and a relevant regime shift was detected in the second half of the 1990s. The traits system switched to higher optimal temperature, more summer spawning, shorter life span, smaller maximum size, shallower optimal depth and planktivorous diet. This shift was found to be a lagged discontinuous response to sea warming, which gradually eroded the resilience of the original state of the traits system, leading it into a new basin of attraction. The inclusion of ecological/response traits (related to environmental preferences) in our analyses indicates potential mechanisms that explain the observed shift, while changes in functional/effect traits indicate potential impacts on ecosystem functioning. Our findings suggest that changes in the Mediterranean ecosystems are evidently larger than previously thought, with profound implications for the management of this highly impacted sea. ​.

Lagged recovery of fish spatial distributions following a cold-water perturbation

Anomalous local temperature and extreme events (e.g. heat-waves) can cause rapid change and gradual recovery of local environmental conditions. However, few studies have tested whether species distribution can recover following returning environmental conditions. Here, we tested for change and recovery of the spatial distributions of two flatfish populations, American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea), in response to consecutive decreasing and increasing water temperature on the Grand Bank off Newfoundland, Canada from 1985 to 2018. Using a Vector Autoregressive Spatiotemporal model, we found the distributions of both species shifted southwards following a period when anomalous cold water covered the northern sections of the Grand Bank. After accounting for density-dependent effects, we observed that yellowtail flounder re-distributed northwards when water temperature returned and exceeded levels recorded before the cold period, while the spatial distribution of American plaice has not recovered. Our study demonstrates nonlinear effects of an environmental factor on species distribution, implying the possibility of irreversible (or hard-to-reverse) changes of species distribution following a rapid change and gradual recovery of environmental conditions.

The sensory impacts of climate change: bathymetric shifts and visually mediated interactions in aquatic species

Visual perception is, in part, a function of the ambient illumination spectrum. In aquatic environments, illumination depends upon the water's optical properties and depth, both of which can change due to anthropogenic impacts: turbidity is increasing in many aquatic habitats, and many species have shifted deeper in response to warming surface waters (known as bathymetric shifts). Although increasing turbidity and bathymetric shifts can result in similarly large changes to a species' optical environment, no studies have yet examined the impact of the latter on visually mediated interactions. Here, we examine a potential link between climate change and visual perception, with a focus on colour. We discuss (i) what is known about bathymetric shifts; (ii) how the impacts of bathymetric shifts on visual interactions may be distributed across species; (iii) which interactions might be affected; and (iv) the ways that animals have to respond to these changes. As warming continues and temperature fluctuations grow more extreme, many species may move into even deeper waters. There is thus a need for studies that examine how such shifts can affect an organism's visual world, interfere with behaviour, and impact fitness, population dynamics, and community structure.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

Drivers and constraints on offshore foraging in harbour seals

Central place foragers are expected to offset travel costs between a central place and foraging areas by targeting productive feeding zones. Harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) make multi-day foraging trips away from coastal haul-out sites presumably to target rich food resources, but periodic track points from telemetry tags may be insufficient to infer reliably where, and how often, foraging takes place. To study foraging behaviour during offshore trips, and assess what factors limit trip duration, we equipped harbour seals in the German Wadden Sea with high-resolution multi-sensor bio-logging tags, recording 12 offshore trips from 8 seals. Using acceleration transients as a proxy for prey capture attempts, we found that foraging rates during travel to and from offshore sites were comparable to offshore rates. Offshore foraging trips may, therefore, reflect avoidance of intra-specific competition rather than presence of offshore foraging hotspots. Time spent resting increased by approx. 37 min/day during trips suggesting that a resting deficit rather than patch depletion may influence trip length. Foraging rates were only weakly correlated with surface movement patterns highlighting the value of integrating multi-sensor data from on-animal bio-logging tags (GPS, depth, accelerometers and magnetometers) to infer behaviour and habitat use.

Direct and indirect effects of heatwaves on a coral reef fishery

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, and indirectly impacting coral reef fisheries through bleaching-induced degradation of live coral habitats. Marine heatwaves also affect fish metabolism and catchability, but such direct effects of elevated temperatures on reef fisheries are largely unknown. We investigated direct and indirect effects of the devastating 2016 marine heatwave on the largest reef fishery operating along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We used a combination of fishery-independent underwater census data on coral trout biomass (Plectropomus and Variola spp.) and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from the commercial fishery to evaluate changes in the fishery resulting from the 2016 heatwave. The heatwave caused widespread, yet locally patchy, declines in coral cover, but we observed little effect of local coral loss on coral trout biomass. Instead, a pattern of decreasing biomass at northern sites and stable or increasing biomass at southern sites suggested a direct response of populations to the heatwave. Analysis of the fishery-independent data and CPUE found that in-water coral trout biomass estimates were positively related to CPUE, and that coral trout catch rates increased with warmer temperatures. Temperature effects on catch rates were consistent with the thermal affinities of the multiple species contributing to this fishery. Scaling-up the effect of temperature on coral trout catch rates across the region suggests that GBR-wide catches were 18% higher for a given level of effort during the heatwave year relative to catch rates under the mean temperatures in the preceding 6 years. These results highlight a potentially large effect of heatwaves on catch rates of reef fishes, independent of changes in reef habitats, that can add substantial uncertainty to estimates of stock trends inferred from fishery-dependent (CPUE) data. Overestimation of CPUE could initiate declines in reef fisheries that are currently fully exploited, and threaten sustainable management of reef stocks.