The Spatial Dynamics of Poliomyelitis in the United States: From Epidemic Emergence to Vaccine-Induced Retreat, 1910-1971

Shattered childhood: Experiences of polio survivors in Finland 1950s and 1960s

AIM

To describe the childhood experiences of patients with polio from the acute phase of the disease during post-war Finland in the 1950s and 1960s.

DESIGN

Qualitative empirical study based on self-reported history of nursing rooted in the past, a history of experiences.

METHODOLOGY

Interview materials were gathered in the form of themes (45) and written interviews (4) (29 September 2018 to 30 June 2019). Data were analysed by reflexive thematic analysis to highlight hidden and latent experiences. This approach generated the study's main theme, themes and subthemes.

RESULTS

The main theme, 'shattered childhood', generated from the study results and was then divided into two themes, both of which were influenced in part by the loss of a familiar childhood, the changed environment, the breakdown of the body and the absence of control. Through their childhood memories, polio survivors described their broken childhoods using the following themes: 'betrayal by their bodies' and 'isolation'. In the narratives, the theme 'betrayal by one's own body' was generated by the following subthemes: 'suddenness of the affliction', 'paralysis' and 'being moved to the hospital'. The 'isolation' theme developed from the subthemes 'isolation from the body and surroundings' and 'emotional and social loneliness'.

CONCLUSION

Polio survivors' experiences during the acute stage of the disease were traumatic and demonstrated children's inferior nursing position in Finland in the 1950s and 1960s.

IMPACT

The study increases our understanding of the history of caring for children and families who were affected and disabled by polio and the importance of their experiences in society and healthcare settings.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

The authors collaborated with the Finnish Polio Association to recruit study participants and plan the study. Patients with polio during childhood underwent interviews, and their experiences formulated the data, which were analysed and the basis of the results.

REPORTING METHOD

Consolidated criteria for reporting qualitative research (COREQ), a 32-item checklist for interviews and focus groups, have been used as a reporting and checklist tool. All authors have agreed on the final version and the use of the COREQ criteria, relationship with participants, theoretical framework, setting, data collection and data analysis and report.

The history of polio vaccination with "Sabin's OPV" 60 years after its introduction in Italy: an unforgivable "delay"

In the spring of 1964, polio vaccination with the oral vaccine developed by Albert Sabin began in Italy. Polio was feared in the world and in Italy. Thus, between 1957 and the beginning of 1958, Italian children began receiving the "Salk vaccine", though the results were not particularly convincing. In July 1960, the international scientific community was able to verify the data from the mass testing of the Sabin vaccine. It became clear that the OPV, could prevent the virus from multiplying, thereby providing greater protection and determining the eradication of the disease. In 1960 over 70 million people in the USSR alone had already received the oral vaccine and mass vaccination in the USA would start in March 1961. However, in Italy there was no similar initiative; only later the new vaccine was accepted but was not made compulsory at the beginning. As a result of the commission's report, registration of the "Polioral" vaccine, was authorized in September 1962 but the sale of the vaccine was not authorized until November 1963. At the beginning of 1964, the production of "Polioral" started and the product was marketed and on the 1 st of March 1964, anti-polio vaccination with the "Sabin anti-polio vaccine" also began in Italy. This manuscript focuses on a crucial issue about a historical delay for public health and it points out as the preparation and diffusion of the Sabin polio vaccine demonstrates that decisions regarding health treatments, and specifically vaccination campaigns, must be based exclusively on the results of clinical studies and on independent evaluation by the scientific community. This process ensures trust in vaccines, adequate protection of public health andcitizens' well-being.

Molecular engineering tools for the development of vaccines against infectious diseases: current status and future directions

INTRODUCTION

The escalating global changes have fostered conditions for the expansion and transmission of diverse biological factors, leading to the rise of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Complex viral infections, such as COVID-19, influenza, HIV, and Ebola, continue to surface, necessitating the development of effective vaccine technologies.

AREAS COVERED

This review article highlights recent advancements in molecular biology, virology, and genomics that have propelled the design and development of innovative molecular tools. These tools have promoted new vaccine research platforms and directly improved vaccine efficacy. The review summarizes the cutting-edge molecular engineering tools used in creating novel vaccines and explores the rapidly expanding molecular tools landscape and potential directions for future vaccine development.

EXPERT OPINION

The strategic application of advanced molecular engineering tools can address conventional vaccine limitations, enhance the overall efficacy of vaccine products, promote diversification in vaccine platforms, and form the foundation for future vaccine development. Prioritizing safety considerations of these novel molecular tools during vaccine development is crucial.

COVID-19 vaccine prioritization based on district classification in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia

Due to limited availability, Indonesia's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination will be done in 4 stages until herd immunity has been reached. Yogyakarta, an education and tourist destination, needs to get a specific, spatial estimation of the exact need for COVID-19 vaccination without delay. This study sheds light on identifying which districts should be prioritized at each vaccination phase. Secondary data collected from provincial, and county-level statistical agencies were quantitatively calculated by the Z-Score method. The results indicate that the first phase of vaccination should prioritize Pengasih and Sentolo districts in Kulon Progo Regency, which have a large number of health workers; the districts of Depok, Banguntapan, Piyungan, Sewon, Wonosari, Gamping, Mlati and Ngaglik should be done in the second phase based on the fact that these districts have many public service officials as well as elderly people; Umbulharjo and Depok districts will be approached in the third phase since they have more vulnerable groups and facilities that may promote COVID- 19 transmission during their daily activities; while the fourth phase should focus on the districts of Banguntapan, Sewon, Kasihan, Gamping, Mlati, Depok, and Ngaglik due to the intensity of COVID-19 clusters discovered there. Overall, vaccination would be given the priority in the districts with the largest number of people in need, i.e., public service officers, elderly people and those likely to be exposed to the coronavirus causing COVID-19.

Could live attenuated vaccines better control COVID-19?

In an effort to control the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale vaccination is being implemented in various countries using anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines based on mRNAs, adenovirus vectors, and inactivated viruses. However, there are concerns regarding adverse effects, such as the induction of fever attributed to mRNA vaccines and pre-existing immunity against adenovirus vectored vaccines or their possible involvement in the development of thrombosis. The induction of antibodies against the adenovirus vector itself constitutes another hindrance, rendering boosting vaccinations ineffective. Additionally, it has been questioned whether inactivated vaccines that predominantly induce humoral immunity are effective against newly arising variants, as some isolated strains were found to be resistant to the serum from COVID-19-recovered patients. Although the number of vaccinated people is steadily increasing on a global scale, it is still necessary to develop vaccines to address the difficulties and concerns mentioned above. Among the various vaccine modalities, live attenuated vaccines have been considered the most effective, since they closely replicate a natural infection without the burden of the disease. In our attempt to provide an additional option to the repertoire of COVID-19 vaccines, we succeeded in isolating temperature-sensitive strains with unique phenotypes that could serve as seeds for a live attenuated vaccine. In this review article, we summarize the characteristics of the currently approved SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. In particular, we focus on the novel temperature-sensitive variants of SARS-CoV-2 that we have recently isolated, and their potential application as live-attenuated vaccines. Based on a thorough evaluation of the different vaccine modalities, we argue that it is important to optimize usage not only based on efficacy, but also on the phases of the pandemic. Our findings can be used to inform vaccination practices and improve global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Approach to Fatigue and Energy Conservation

Fatigue, a common complaint in individuals with postpolio syndrome (PPS), is defined as an overwhelming sustained feeling of exhaustion and diminished capacity for physical and mental work. A comprehensive medical work-up is needed to rule out all other causes of fatigue. A sleep study should be considered for individuals with PPS who complain of fatigue. Self-reported outcome measures, such as the Fatigue Severity Scale, are reliable and valid tools to measure fatigue in this population. Fatigue management consists of individualized treatment of underlying medical conditions, energy conservation, pacing techniques, and lifestyle modifications.

Can pandemics affect educational attainment? Evidence from the polio epidemic of 1916

We leverage the largest polio outbreak in US history, the 1916 polio epidemic, to study how epidemic-related school interruptions affect educational attainment. Using polio morbidity as a proxy for epidemic exposure, we find that children aged 10 and under, and school-aged children of legal working age with greater exposure to the epidemic experienced reduced educational attainment compared to their slightly older peers. These reductions in observed educational attainment persist even after accounting for the influenza epidemic of 1918.

Were there long-term economic effects of exposure to polio vaccination? An analysis of migrants to Sweden 1946-2003

Recent research showed that exposure to the vaccine against polio in early life had no long-term economic benefits among native Swedes. However, whether this result holds for individuals from other countries remains unexplored. This study explores the relationship between exposure to the vaccine and later-life outcomes, but focuses on individuals who migrated to Sweden (birth cohorts 1946-1971), and constitute a diverse sample in terms of national origin. Using a differences-in-differences approach and register data from the Swedish Longitudinal Immigrant Database, this study explores if being exposed to the vaccine against polio in the year of birth in the country of origin has any impact on adult income, educational achievement, or days or number of hospitalizations. The results are in line with the previous research in showing that there are no statistically significant effects on adult income, education, or health from exposure to the vaccine against polio, regardless of national origin. Furthermore, no scarring effects of exposure to polio epidemics were found on any of the outcomes, reinforcing the hypothesis that polio did not scar individuals in the same way as other contemporary epidemic diseases did, and that the lack of scarring could explain the absence of long-term impact from vaccine exposure.

Spatial Analyses of Oral Polio Vaccine Transmission in an Community Vaccinated With Inactivated Polio Vaccine

Background

Understanding the spatial dynamics of oral polio vaccine (OPV) transmission will improve resource targeting. Mexico provides a natural laboratory, as it uses inactivated polio vaccine routinely as well as OPV bi-annually.

Methods

Using geospatial maps, we measured the distance and density of OPV vaccinees' shedding in the areas nearest to unvaccinated households in 3 Mexican villages. Comparison of transmission to unvaccinated households utilized a mixed effects logistic regression with random effects for household and time, adjusted for age, gender, area, and running water.

Results

The median distance from an unvaccinated household to its nearest OPV-shedding household was 85 meters (interquartile range, 46-145) and the median number of vaccinees shedding OPV within 200 m was 3 (2-6). Transmission to unvaccinated households occurred by day 1. There was no association (odds ratio [OR] 1.04; 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.92-1.16) between the distance from OPV shedding and the odds of transmission. The number of OPV vaccinees shedding within 200 m came close to a significant association with unvaccinated transmission (OR 0.93; CrI 0.84-1.01), but this was not the case for households 100 or 500 m apart. Results were consistent across the 3 villages.

Conclusions

Geospatial analysis did not predict community transmission from vaccinated to unvaccinated households, because OPV use resulted in rapid, low transmission levels. This finding supports the global cessation of OPV.

Vaccine technologies: From whole organisms to rationally designed protein assemblies

Vaccines have been the single most significant advancement in public health, preventing morbidity and mortality in millions of people annually. Vaccine development has traditionally focused on whole organism vaccines, either live attenuated or inactivated vaccines. While successful for many different infectious diseases whole organisms are expensive to produce, require culture of the infectious agent, and have the potential to cause vaccine associated disease in hosts. With advancing technology and a desire to develop safe, cost effective vaccine candidates, the field began to focus on the development of recombinantly expressed antigens known as subunit vaccines. While more tolerable, subunit vaccines tend to be less immunogenic. Attempts have been made to increase immunogenicity with the addition of adjuvants, either immunostimulatory molecules or an antigen delivery system that increases immune responses to vaccines. An area of extreme interest has been the application of nanotechnology to vaccine development, which allows for antigens to be expressed on a particulate delivery system. One of the most exciting examples of nanovaccines are rationally designed protein nanoparticles. These nanoparticles use some of the basic tenants of structural biology, biophysical chemistry, and vaccinology to develop protective, safe, and easily manufactured vaccines. Rationally developed nanoparticle vaccines are one of the most promising candidates for the future of vaccine development.

Blowback: new formal perspectives on agriculturally driven pathogen evolution and spread

By their diversity in time, space, and mode, traditional and conservation agricultures can create barriers limiting pathogen evolution and spread analogous to a sterilizing temperature. Large-scale monocropping and confined animal feeding-lot operations remove such barriers, resulting, above agroecologically specific thresholds, in the development and wide propagation of novel disease strains. We apply a newly developed class of necessary-conditions statistical models of evolutionary process, first using the theory on an evolutionarily stable viral pathogen vulnerable to vaccine treatment: post-World War II poliomyelitis emerged in the UK and USA from sudden widespread adoption of automobile ownership and usage. We then examine an evolutionarily variable pathogen, swine influenza in North America. The model suggests epidemiological blowback from globalizing intensive husbandry and the raising and shipping of monoculture livestock across increasing expanses, is likely to be far more consequential, driving viral selection for greater virulence and lowered response to biomedical intervention.

Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio

Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio’s historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio’s seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing “disease of development” hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio’s historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

Using models to reveal the epidemiology of historic poliovirus transmission in the US, this study reconstructs the millions of silent infections and identifies why polio epidemics are explosive, seasonal, and vary geographically.

Thanks to global vaccination efforts, poliovirus is on the brink of worldwide eradication. However, achieving eradication and preventing re-emergence requires intimate knowledge of how the virus persists. In order to understand a system that is complicated by heavy human intervention, such as vaccination, it is important to establish a baseline by studying that system in the absence of intervention. Historical epidemics that predate the use of vaccines can be used to disentangle the epidemiology of disease from vaccine effects. Using historical polio data from large-scale epidemics in the US, we fitted and simulated mathematical models to track poliovirus and to reconstruct the millions of unobserved subclinical infections that propagated the disease. We identified why polio epidemics are explosive and seasonal, and why they vary geographically. Our analyses show that the historical expansion of polio is straightforwardly explained by the demographic “baby boom” during the postwar period rather than improvements in hygiene. We were also able to demonstrate that poliovirus persisted primarily through symptomless individuals, and that in the event of local virus extinction, infection was reintroduced from other geographic locations.

Negative Pressure Noninvasive Ventilation (NPNIV): History, Rationale, and Application

Man has recognized the vital role of breathing since antiquity, beginning with archeological findings depicting inhalation therapy using herbs, oils, and other substances since 6000 BC. Man has taken the automaticity of breathing for granted, expecting its adequacy for all activities whether awake or asleep. Dickinson W. Richards, MD, Nobel Laureate, said in 1962: “Breathing is that essential physiologic function that is straddled between the conscious & the unconscious and subject to both.” The understanding of the components of this critical physiologic function that starts at birth, and must be continuous and widely adaptable to support all levels of physical, metabolic, and functional needs, has evolved slowly over the millennia by many brilliant scientists from a combination of keen observation, imagination, daring experimentation, trial and error, and necessity, while overcoming dogma, religious inhibitions, and politics. It is this gradual chronologic process, still evolving, which guides what we do for patients today.

Poliomyelitis: historical facts, epidemiology, and current challenges in eradication

Poliomyelitis is a highly infectious disease caused by a virus belonging to the Picornaviridae family. It finds a mention even in ancient Egyptian paintings and carvings. The clinical features are varied ranging from mild cases of respiratory illness, gastroenteritis, and malaise to severe forms of paralysis. These have been categorized into inapparent infection without symptoms, mild illness (abortive poliomyelitis), aseptic meningitis (nonparalytic poliomyelitis), and paralytic poliomyelitis. This disease has been associated with crippling deformities affecting thousands of lives throughout the world. Only due to the perseverance and determination of great scientists in 1900s, the genomic structure of the virus and its pathogenesis could be elucidated. Contribution of Salk and Sabin in the form of vaccines-oral polio vaccine (OPV) and the inactivated polio vaccine-heralded a scientific revolution. In 1994, the World Health Organization (WHO) Region of The Americas was certified polio free followed by the WHO Western Pacific Region in 2000 and the WHO European Region in June 2002 of the 3 types of wild poliovirus (types 1, 2, and 3). In 2013, only 3 countries remained polio endemic-Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Global eradication of polio is imperative else the threat of an outbreak will hover forever. Today, all the governments of the world in collaboration with WHO stand unified in their fight against poliomyelitis and the task when achieved will pave the way for eliminating other infections in future.

Validation of three geolocation strategies for health-facility attendees for research and public health surveillance in a rural setting in western Kenya

Understanding the spatial distribution of disease is critical for effective disease control. Where formal address networks do not exist, tracking spatial patterns of clinical disease is difficult. Geolocation strategies were tested at rural health facilities in western Kenya. Methods included geocoding residence by head of compound, participatory mapping and recording the self-reported nearest landmark. Geocoding was able to locate 72·9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67·7–77·6] of individuals to within 250 m of the true compound location. The participatory mapping exercise was able to correctly locate 82·0% of compounds (95% CI 78·9–84·8) to a 2 × 2·5 km area with a 500 m buffer. The self-reported nearest landmark was able to locate 78·1% (95% CI 73·8–82·1) of compounds to the correct catchment area. These strategies tested provide options for quickly obtaining spatial information on individuals presenting at health facilities.

Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

Receptor modification as a therapeutic approach against viral diseases

Poliovirus causes flaccid paralysis through the destruction of motor neurons in the CNS. Susceptibility to its infection is mainly due to the interaction in between the surface capsid proteins and its receptors on the host cell surface, important for binding, penetration and other necessary events during early infection. Receptor modification is a new approach to treat viral diseases by the modification of target proteins structure. Binding domains are modified in an effective way to make it difficult for the virus to recognize it. In this study, tolerant and intolerant induced mutations in the poliovirus receptor, VP1 and VP2 were identified and substituted in the seed sequence to get the modified versions. Substitutions causing changes in initial folding were short listed and further analyzed for high level folding, physiochemical properties and interactions. Highest RMSD values were observed in between the seed and the mutant K90F (3.265 Å) and Q130W (3.270Å) respectively. The proposed substitutions were found to have low functional impact and thus can be further tested and validated by the experimental researchers. Interactions analyses proved most of the substitutions having decreased affinity for both the VP1 and VP2 and thus are of significant importance against poliovirus. This study will play an important role for bridging computational biology to other fields of applied biology and also will provide an insight to develop resistance against viral diseases. It is also expected that same approach can also be applicable against other viruses like HCV, HIV and other in near future.

Determinants of periodicity in seasonally driven epidemics

Seasonality strongly affects the transmission and spatio-temporal dynamics of many infectious diseases, and is often an important cause for their recurrence. However, there are many open questions regarding the intricate relationship between seasonality and the complex dynamics of infectious diseases it gives rise to. For example, in the analysis of long-term time-series of childhood diseases, it is not clear why there are transitions from regimes with regular annual dynamics, to regimes in which epidemics occur every two or more years, and vice-versa. The classical seasonally-forced SIR epidemic model gives insights into these phenomena but due to its intrinsic nonlinearity and complex dynamics, the model is rarely amenable to detailed mathematical analysis. Making sensible approximations we analytically study the threshold (bifurcation) point of the forced SIR model where there is a switch from annual to biennial epidemics. We derive, for the first time, a simple equation that predicts the relationship between key epidemiological parameters near the bifurcation point. The relationship makes clear that, for realistic values of the parameters, the transition from biennial to annual dynamics will occur if either the birth-rate (μ) or basic reproductive ratio (R(0)) is increased sufficiently, or if the strength of seasonality (δ) is reduced sufficiently. These effects are confirmed in simulations studies and are also in accord with empirical observations. For example, the relationship may explain the correspondence between documented transitions in measles epidemics dynamics and concomitant changes in demographic and environmental factors.

Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns

Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models.

Highlights of historical events leading to national surveillance of vaccination coverage in the United States

The articles published in this special supplement of Public Health Reports provide examples of only some of the current efforts in the United States for evaluating vaccination coverage. So, how did we get here? The history of vaccination and assessment of vaccination coverage in the U.S. has its roots in the pre-Revolutionary War era. In many cases, development of vaccines, and attention devoted to the assessment of vaccination coverage, has grown from the impact of infectious disease on major world events such as wars. The purpose of this commentary is to provide a brief overview of the key historical events in the U.S. that influenced the development of vaccines and the efforts to track vaccination coverage, which laid the foundation for contemporary vaccination assessment efforts.

Characterizing the initial diffusion pattern of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 using surveillance data

Using notification data, diffusion of pandemic human influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Hong Kong was explored with geographic information system (GIS) methodology. Point data were displayed and then analysed with interpolation and the application of SaTScan™. Beginning from 6 initial foci, the spatial distribution has remained heterogeneous at the end of the first three months, with students functioning as the main disseminators. Our study showed that routinely collected surveillance data could be effectively used for describing the epidemic, which could support the development of interventions at local levels.

Proof of concept of a method that assesses the spread of microbial infections with spatially explicit and non-spatially explicit data

Background

A method that assesses bacterial spatial dissemination was explored. It measures microbial genotypes (defined by electrophoretic patterns or EP), host, location (farm), interfarm Euclidean distance, and time. Its proof of concept (construct and internal validity) was evaluated using a dataset that included 113 Staphylococcus aureus EPs from 1126 bovine milk isolates collected on 23 farms between 1988 and 2005.

Results

Construct validity was assessed by comparing results based on the interfarm Euclidean distance (a spatially explicit measure) and those produced by the (non-spatial) interfarm number of isolates reporting the same EP. The distance associated with EP spread correlated with the interfarm number of isolates/EP (r = .59, P < 0.02). Internal validity was estimated by comparing results obtained with different versions of the same indices. Concordance was observed between: (a) EP distance (estimated microbial dispersal over space) and EP speed (distance/year, r = .72, P < 0.01), and (b) the interfarm number of isolates/EP (when measured on the basis of non-repeated cow testing) and the same measure as expressed by repeated testing of the same animals (r = .87, P < 0.01). Three EPs (2.6% of all EPs) appeared to be super-spreaders: they were found in 26.75% of all isolates. Various indices differentiated local from spatially disseminated infections and, within the local type, infections suspected to be farm-related were distinguished from cow-related ones.

Conclusion

Findings supported both construct and internal validity. Because 3 EPs explained 12 times more isolates than expected and at least twice as many isolates as other EPs did, false negative results associated with the remaining EPs (those erroneously identified as lacking spatial dispersal when, in fact, they disseminated spatially), if they occurred, seemed to have negligible effects. Spatial analysis of laboratory data may support disease surveillance systems by generating hypotheses on microbial dispersal ability.

An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data

BACKGROUND

Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified.

METHODS

A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R(0A), of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76.

RESULTS

The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H1N1 (1918-19), Asian influenza H2N2 (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H3N2 (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence.

DISCUSSION

The potential for using R(0A) in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data.

CONCLUSIONS

The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.

Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

BACKGROUND

This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics.

METHODS

Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent).

RESULTS

The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the Indian epidemic, the disease disappeared and reappeared several times at most locations; in Western Europe, once the disease entered a place, it lasted a time proportional to the population and then disappeared for several years (this on-and-off situation lasted more than three centuries); and (6) on average, Black Death moved much faster than bubonic plague to reach virgin territories, despite the fact that India is only slightly larger in area than Western Europe and had a railroad network almost instantly moving infected rats, fleas, and people from one end of the subcontinent to the other.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings throw new light on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemics and need to be taken into consideration in the scientific discussion concerning the two devastating diseases and the lessons learned from them.

A swash-backwash model of the single epidemic wave

While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifying the leading and trailing edges of the spatial advance and retreat of such waves. Analysis of edge characteristics is used to (a) disaggregate waves into 'swash' and 'backwash' stages, (b) measure the phase transitions of areas from susceptible, S, through infective, I, to recovered, R, status (S --> I --> R) as dimensionless integrals and (c) estimate a spatial version of the basic reproduction number, R(0). The methods used are illustrated by application to measles waves in Iceland over a 60-year period from 1915 to 1974. Extensions of the methods for use with more complex waves are possible through modifying the threshold values used to define the start and end points of an event.

The spatial structure of epidemic emergence: geographical aspects of poliomyelitis in north-eastern USA, July-October 1916

The great epidemic of poliomyelitis which swept New York City and surrounding territory in the summer of 1916 eclipsed all previous global experience of the disease. We draw on epidemiological information that is included in the seminal US Public Health Bulletin 91, 'Epidemiologic studies of poliomyelitis in New York City and the northeastern United States during the year 1916' (Washington DC, 1918), to re-examine the spatial structure of the epidemic. For the main phase of transmission of the epidemic, July-October 1916, it is shown that the maximum concentration of activity of poliomyelitis occurred within a 128-km radius of New York City. Although the integrity of the poliomyelitis cluster was maintained up to approximately 500 km from the metropolitan focus, the level and rate of propagation of disease declined with distance from the origin of the epidemic. Finally, it is shown that the geographical transmission of the epidemic in north-eastern USA probably followed a process of mixed contagious-hierarchical diffusion.