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Heard GW, Bolitho LJ, Newell D, Hines HB, Norman P, Willacy RJ, Scheele BC. Drought, fire, and rainforest endemics: A case study of two threatened frogs impacted by Australia's "Black Summer". Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10069. [PMID: 37214614 PMCID: PMC10197140 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Deepening droughts and unprecedented wildfires are at the leading edge of climate change. Such events pose an emerging threat to species maladapted to these perturbations, with the potential for steeper declines than may be inferred from the gradual erosion of their climatic niche. This study focused on two species of amphibians-Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis (Limnodynastidae)-from the Gondwanan rainforests of eastern Australia that were extensively affected by the "Black Summer" megafires of 2019/2020 and the severe drought associated with them. We sought to assess the impact of these perturbations by quantifying the extent of habitat affected by fire, assessing patterns of occurrence and abundance of calling males post-fire, and comparing post-fire occurrence and abundance with that observed pre-fire. Some 30% of potentially suitable habitat for P. kundagungan was fire affected, and 12% for P. richmondensis. Field surveys revealed persistence in some burnt rainforest; however, both species were detected at a higher proportion of unburnt sites. There was a clear negative effect of fire on the probability of site occupancy, abundance and the probability of persistence for P. kundagungan. For P. richmondensis, effects of fire were less evident due to the limited penetration of fire into core habitat; however, occupancy rates and abundance of calling males were depressed during the severe drought that prevailed just prior to the fires, with the reappearance of calling males linked to the degree of rehydration of breeding habitat post-fire. Our results highlight the possibility that severe negative impacts of climate change for montane rainforest endemics may be felt much sooner than commonly anticipated under a scenario of gradual (decadal-scale) changes in mean climatic conditions. Instead, the increased rate of severe stochastic events places these narrow range species at a heightened risk of extinction in the near-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Geoffrey W. Heard
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
- Terrestrial Ecosystem Research NetworkUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Liam J. Bolitho
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
- Faculty of Science and EngineeringSouthern Cross UniversityLismoreNew South WalesAustralia
| | - David Newell
- Faculty of Science and EngineeringSouthern Cross UniversityLismoreNew South WalesAustralia
| | - Harry B. Hines
- Department of Environment and ScienceQueensland Parks and Wildlife Service and PartnershipsBellbowrieQueenslandAustralia
- Queensland MuseumSouth BrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
| | - Patrick Norman
- Climate Action BeaconGriffith UniversityGold CoastQueenslandAustralia
| | - Rosalie J. Willacy
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation ScienceUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQueenslandAustralia
- Faculty of Science and EngineeringSouthern Cross UniversityLismoreNew South WalesAustralia
| | - Ben C. Scheele
- Fenner School of Environment and SocietyAustralian National UniversityCanberraAustralian Capital TerritoryAustralia
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2
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Han L, Zhang Z, Tu W, Zhang Q, Hong Y, Chen S, Lin Z, Gu S, Du Y, Wu Z, Liu X. Preferred prey reduce species realized niche shift and improve range expansion prediction. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 859:160370. [PMID: 36414055 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2022] [Revised: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Many studies have detected realized climatic niche shifts during range changes; this is challenging the fundamental theory of the niche conservatism hypothesis (NCH) and the usefulness of the ecological niche model (ENM) for predicting the distributions of species in space and time by tracking environmental change. Biotic factors such as predatory interactions are important components of species realized niches but are generally difficult to quantify during NCH testing and ENM building. Identifying species' preferred prey may provide a unique opportunity to include trophic interactions in assessing the NCH and determine whether more precise ENM predictions are generated. In this study, we focused on a range-expanding predatory bird, the Asian openbill (Anastomus oscitans). The main prey of the Asian openbill include 136 snail species. We observed a realized climatic niche shift during the northward expansion of the Asian openbill by considering only climates; however, niche conservatism was detected after incorporating their preferred prey. ENMs including preferred snails also predicted the distributions of the Asian openbill better than climate-only models and models including nonpreferred snails or only habitat variables. The results of our study suggested the importance of incorporating preferred prey in evaluating the NCH and developing a framework for predicting the range shifts of both native and alien species in response to global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lixia Han
- Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Guangxi Normal University, Ministry of Education, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China; Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Rare and Endangered Animal Ecology, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China
| | - Zhixin Zhang
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 001-0021, Japan; CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, China
| | - Weishan Tu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; School of Life Sciences, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Anhui, China
| | - Qing Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yanhua Hong
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; Key Laboratory for Conserving Wildlife with Small Populations in Yunnan, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, Yunnan, China
| | - Shengnan Chen
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, Sichuan, China
| | - Zhiqiang Lin
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; College of Life Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, Xinjiang, China
| | - Shimin Gu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China
| | - Yuanbao Du
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China
| | - Zhengjun Wu
- Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection, Guangxi Normal University, Ministry of Education, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Rare and Endangered Animal Ecology, Guilin 541006, Guangxi, China.
| | - Xuan Liu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang, 100101 Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China.
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3
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Chiatante G. Habitat use of the mistle thrush (Turdus viscivorus): the importance of urban areas and permanent crops. JOURNAL OF VERTEBRATE BIOLOGY 2022. [DOI: 10.25225/jvb.22041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gianpasquale Chiatante
- University of Pavia, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Pavia, Italy; e-mail:
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4
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Plant conservation in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot: a case study on the Piper genus in Veracruz (Mexico). Trop Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s42965-022-00271-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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5
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Gahbauer MA, Parker SR, Wu JX, Harpur C, Bateman BL, Whitaker DM, Tate DP, Taylor L, Lepage D. Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262116. [PMID: 35061743 PMCID: PMC8782523 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel A. Gahbauer
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Joanna X. Wu
- National Audubon Society, New York City, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Brooke L. Bateman
- National Audubon Society, New York City, New York, United States of America
| | | | | | - Lotem Taylor
- National Audubon Society, New York City, New York, United States of America
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7
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Chiatante G. Spatial distribution of an assemblage of an endemic genus of birds: an example from Madagascar. Afr J Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/aje.12917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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8
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Farashi A, Karimian Z. Assessing climate change risks to the geographical distribution of grass species. PLANT SIGNALING & BEHAVIOR 2021; 16:1913311. [PMID: 33866934 PMCID: PMC8205038 DOI: 10.1080/15592324.2021.1913311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
There is extensive evidence showing the impact of climate change on the biology and biogeography of species. Adopting drought-tolerant plants to conserve water is a potential adaptation to reduce the consequences of climate change. Accordingly, it was hypothesized that climate change would not affect potential distributions of drought-tolerant species. Here, this hypothesis was tested to model the potential distribution of three drought-resistant plant. Here, the potential distribution of Agropyron cristatum, Agropyron desertorum, and Festuca arundinacea was studied in Iran under current and future climate conditions, using 10 species distribution models. Sixty-two climate change scenarios (19 global climate models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) were used to model the potential distribution of the three plants in Iran in the future. The three species have different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions, species morphological and physiological advancement. The three species showed different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions. Festuca arundinacea and Agropyron cristatum will, respectively, experience the most and least severe decline in suitable habitats in the next 50 years. This result is because decreased annual precipitation caused an increase in habitat suitability for A. cristatum, while the same variable had the opposite effect for A. desertorum and F. arundinacea. On the other hand, F. arundinacea grows on moist soils that decreased annual precipitation caused a decrease in habitat suitability. Also, our results have clearly shown that plant species drought-stress tolerant are not immune to climate change and their current distributions undergo significant changes as a result of the changing of climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Azita Farashi
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Zahra Karimian
- Department of Ornamental Plants, Research Center for Plant Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
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Greenspan E, Giordano AJ. A rangewide distribution model for the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul): identifying potential new survey regions for an understudied small cat. MAMMALIA 2021. [DOI: 10.1515/mammalia-2020-0094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Knowledge about the current distribution of threatened and/or understudied species is a fundamental component of conservation biology. Mapping species distributions based on recent known occurrences is particularly important for those that are rare or declining. Too often, cryptic species go undetected throughout parts of their range, whereas others just receive less research attention. We used contemporary presence data for the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul), a small cryptic felid, to characterize potential rangewide and regional habitat for the species and identify those abiotic and biotic variables most influencing its distribution. Several regions lacking contemporary occurrence records contain potential habitat for Pallas’s cats, including the Koh-i-Baba Mountains of Afghanistan, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, steppes of Inner Mongolia, Kunlun Mountains of China, and Tian Shan and Pamir Mountains of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and China. Some of these areas have not been included in prior rangewide distribution assessments. The distribution of pikas (Ochotona spp.), small mammals that likely represent a critical prey species everywhere they are sympatric, was the most important factor affecting the Pallas’s cat’s distribution. This suggests Pallas’s cats may be prey specialists, and that pika presence and habitat are critical considerations for future Pallas’s cat surveys and in the development of regional conservation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan Greenspan
- SPECIES , P.O. Box 7403 , Ventura , CA 93006 , USA
- Department of Forestry , Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University , Carbondale , IL 62901 , USA
| | - Anthony J. Giordano
- SPECIES , P.O. Box 7403 , Ventura , CA 93006 , USA
- Department of Forestry , Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University , Carbondale , IL 62901 , USA
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10
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Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator. DIVERSITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/d13040169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (Natrix natrix). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards.
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11
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Spatial ecology of the stone marten in an Alpine area: combining camera-trapping and genetic surveys. MAMMAL RES 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s13364-021-00564-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
AbstractA species’ potential distribution can be modelled adequately only if no factor other than habitat availability affects its occurrences. Space use by stone marten Martes foina is likely to be affected by interspecific competition with the strictly related pine marten Martes martes, the latter being able to outcompete the first species in forested habitats. Hence, to point out the environmental factors which determine the distribution and density of the stone marten, a relatively understudied mesocarnivore, we applied two non-invasive survey methods, camera-trapping and faecal-DNA based genetic analysis, in an Alpine area where the pine marten was deemed to be absent (Val Grande National Park N Italy). Camera trapping was conducted from October 2014 to November 2015, using up to 27 cameras. Marten scats were searched for between July and November 2015 and, to assess density, in spring 2017. Species identification was accomplished by a PCR-RFLP method, while 17 autosomal microsatellites were used for individual identification. The stone marten occurred in all available habitats (83% of trapping sites and 73.2% of scats); nonetheless, habitat suitability, as assessed using MaxEnt, depended on four major land cover variables—rocky grasslands, rocks and debris, beech forests and chestnut forests—, martens selecting forests and avoiding open rocky areas. Sixteen individuals were identified, of which 14 related to each other, possibly forming six different groups. Using capwire estimators, density was assessed as 0.95 (0.7–1.3) ind/km2. In the study area, the widespread stone marten selected forested areas, attaining density values like those reported for the pine marten in northern Europe and suggesting that patterns of habitat selection may depend on the relative abundance of the two competing martens.
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12
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Spatial distribution of the pine marten (Martes martes) and stone marten (Martes foina) in the Italian Alps. Mamm Biol 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s42991-020-00098-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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13
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Kass JM, Meenan SI, Tinoco N, Burneo SF, Anderson RP. Improving area of occupancy estimates for parapatric species using distribution models and support vector machines. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02228. [PMID: 32970879 PMCID: PMC7816235 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2019] [Revised: 05/11/2020] [Accepted: 07/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
As geographic range estimates for the IUCN Red List guide conservation actions, accuracy and ecological realism are crucial. IUCN's extent of occurrence (EOO) is the general region including the species' range, while area of occupancy (AOO) is the subset of EOO occupied by the species. Data-poor species with incomplete sampling present particular difficulties, but species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict suitable areas. Nevertheless, SDMs typically employ abiotic variables (i.e., climate) and do not explicitly account for biotic interactions that can impose range constraints. We sought to improve range estimates for data-poor, parapatric species by masking out areas under inferred competitive exclusion. We did so for two South American spiny pocket mice: Heteromys australis (Least Concern) and Heteromys teleus (Vulnerable due to especially poor sampling), whose ranges appear restricted by competition. For both species, we estimated EOO using SDMs and AOO with four approaches: occupied grid cells, abiotic SDM prediction, and this prediction masked by approximations of the areas occupied by each species' congener. We made the masks using support vector machines (SVMs) fit with two data types: occurrence coordinates alone; and coordinates along with SDM predictions of suitability. Given the uncertainty in calculating AOO for low-data species, we made estimates for the lower and upper bounds for AOO, but only make recommendations for H. teleus as its full known range was considered. The SVM approaches (especially the second one) had lower classification error and made more ecologically realistic delineations of the contact zone. For H. teleus, the lower AOO bound (a strongly biased underestimate) corresponded to Endangered (occupied grid cells), while the upper bounds (other approaches) led to Near Threatened. As we currently lack data to determine the species' true occupancy within the post-processed SDM prediction, we recommend that an updated listing for H. teleus include these bounds for AOO. This study advances methods for estimating the upper bound of AOO and highlights the need for better ways to produce unbiased estimates of lower bounds. More generally, the SVM approaches for post-processing SDM predictions hold promise for improving range estimates for other uses in biogeography and conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie M. Kass
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyThe Graduate CenterCUNYNew YorkNew York10016USA
- Department of BiologyCity College of New York (CUNY)New YorkNew York10031USA
- Biodiversity and Biocomplexity UnitOkinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate UniversityTancha, Onna‐son, Kunigami‐gunOkinawa904‐0495Japan
| | - Sarah I. Meenan
- Department of BiologyCity College of New York (CUNY)New YorkNew York10031USA
| | - Nicolás Tinoco
- Museo de ZoologíaPontificia Universidad Católica del EcuadorAvenida 12 de Octubre, 1076 y Roca170517QuitoEcuador
| | - Santiago F. Burneo
- Museo de ZoologíaPontificia Universidad Católica del EcuadorAvenida 12 de Octubre, 1076 y Roca170517QuitoEcuador
| | - Robert P. Anderson
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyThe Graduate CenterCUNYNew YorkNew York10016USA
- Department of BiologyCity College of New York (CUNY)New YorkNew York10031USA
- Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy)American Museum of Natural HistoryNew YorkNew York10024USA
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Mod HK, Scherrer D, Di Cola V, Broennimann O, Blandenier Q, Breiner FT, Buri A, Goudet J, Guex N, Lara E, Mitchell EAD, Niculita‐Hirzel H, Pagni M, Pellissier L, Pinto‐Figueroa E, Sanders IR, Schmidt BR, Seppey CVW, Singer D, Ursenbacher S, Yashiro E, van der Meer JR, Guisan A. Greater topoclimatic control of above- versus below-ground communities. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:6715-6728. [PMID: 32866994 PMCID: PMC7756268 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Revised: 06/04/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Assessing the degree to which climate explains the spatial distributions of different taxonomic and functional groups is essential for anticipating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Most effort so far has focused on above-ground organisms, which offer only a partial view on the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients. Here including both above- and below-ground organisms, we quantified the degree of topoclimatic control on the occurrence patterns of >1,500 taxa and phylotypes along a c. 3,000 m elevation gradient, by fitting species distribution models. Higher model performances for animals and plants than for soil microbes (fungi, bacteria and protists) suggest that the direct influence of topoclimate is stronger on above-ground species than on below-ground microorganisms. Accordingly, direct climate change effects are predicted to be stronger for above-ground than for below-ground taxa, whereas factors expressing local soil microclimate and geochemistry are likely more important to explain and forecast the occurrence patterns of soil microbiota. Detailed mapping and future scenarios of soil microclimate and microhabitats, together with comparative studies of interacting and ecologically dependent above- and below-ground biota, are thus needed to understand and realistically forecast the future distribution of ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heidi K. Mod
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Geosciences and GeographyUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Daniel Scherrer
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | - Valeria Di Cola
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Quentin Blandenier
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Real Jardín BotánicoCSICMadridSpain
| | - Frank T. Breiner
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Aline Buri
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Jérôme Goudet
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Swiss Institute of BioinformaticsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Nicolas Guex
- Bioinformatics Competence CenterUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Vital‐IT GroupSwiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
| | | | - Edward A. D. Mitchell
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Jardin Botanique de NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
| | - Hélène Niculita‐Hirzel
- Department of Occupational Health and EnvironmentCenter for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté)University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Marco Pagni
- Vital‐IT GroupSwiss Institute of BioinformaticsLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Loïc Pellissier
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Landscape EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZürichZürichSwitzerland
| | | | - Ian R. Sanders
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Benedikt R. Schmidt
- Info Fauna KarchNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental StudiesUniversity of ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | | | - David Singer
- Laboratory of Soil BiodiversityInstitute of BiologyUniversity of NeuchâtelNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of ZoologyInstitute of BiosciencesUniversity of São PauloSão PauloBrazil
| | - Sylvain Ursenbacher
- Info Fauna KarchNeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Department of Environmental SciencesSection of Conservation BiologyUniversity of BaselBaselSwitzerland
| | - Erika Yashiro
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Fundamental MicrobiologyUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Jan R. van der Meer
- Department of Fundamental MicrobiologyUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
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15
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Biotic interactions govern the distribution of coexisting ungulates in the Arctic Archipelago – A case for conservation planning. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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16
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Torre Cerro R, Holloway P. A review of the methods for studying biotic interactions in phenological analyses. Methods Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rubén Torre Cerro
- Department of Geography University College Cork Cork Ireland
- Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Cork Ireland
| | - Paul Holloway
- Department of Geography University College Cork Cork Ireland
- Environmental Research Institute University College Cork Cork Ireland
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17
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Weather and biotic interactions as determinants of seasonal shifts in abundance measured through nest-box occupancy in the Siberian flying squirrel. Sci Rep 2020; 10:14465. [PMID: 32879335 PMCID: PMC7467920 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71391-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
It is much debated whether the direct effects of weather or biotic interactions determine species’ responses to climate change. For example, an important biotic factor for herbivores in northern ecosystems is the availability of winter food. If the food availability changes because of the changing climate, it likely has major impact on the abundance of herbivores. To evaluate this, we need to know the relative roles of weather and biotic interactions, such as food availability and risk of predation, for the species. Here, we utilize long-term data on nest-box occupancy by Siberian flying squirrels (Pteromys volans) in Finland during 2002–2018. We built binary models with nest-box occupancy in different seasons as a response variable. Weather, winter food (tree mast), and predator presence (the Ural owl, Strix uralensis) modified seasonal nest-box occupancy patterns of the flying squirrel. However, the effect of weather was only important in the summer. The negative effect of predators was clear for adults but, surprisingly, not for overwinter survival of apparent juveniles. Considering the relative importance of different factors, winter food availability had a clear positive effect in each season. Our study supports the view that the effects of climate change mediate through multiple biotic interactions. In forest ecosystems, responses of masting trees to weather likely play an important role in species responses to climate change.
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18
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Uzqueda A, Burnett S, Bertola LV, Hoskin CJ. Quantifying range decline and remaining populations of the large marsupial carnivore of Australia’s tropical rainforest. J Mammal 2020. [DOI: 10.1093/jmammal/gyaa077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Large predators are particularly susceptible to population declines due to large area requirements, low population density, and conflict with humans. Their low density and secretive habits also make it difficult to know the spatial extent, size, and connectivity of populations; declines hence can go unnoticed. Here, we quantified decline in a large marsupial carnivore, the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus gracilis), endemic to the Wet Tropics rainforest of northeast Australia. We compiled a large database of occurrence records and used species distributional modeling to estimate the distribution in four time periods (Pre-1956, 1956–1975, 1976–1995, 1996–2016) using climate layers and three human-use variables. The most supported variables in the distribution models were climatic, with highly suitable quoll habitat having relatively high precipitation, low temperatures, and a narrow annual range in temperature. Land-use type and road density also influenced quoll distribution in some time periods. The modeling revealed a significant decline in the distribution of D. m. gracilis over the last century, with contraction away from peripheral areas and from large areas of the Atherton Tablelands in the center of the distribution. Tests of the change in patch availability for populations of 20, 50, and 100 individuals revealed a substantial (17–32%) decline in available habitat for all population sizes, with a particular decline (31–40%) in core habitat (i.e., excluding edges). Six remaining populations were defined. Extrapolating capture–recapture density estimates derived from two populations in 2017 suggests these populations are small and range from about 10 to 160 individuals. Our total population estimate sums to 424 individuals, but we outline why this estimate is positively skewed and that the actual population size may be < 300 individuals. Continued decline and apparent absence in areas of highly suitable habitat suggests some threats are not being captured in our models. From our results, we provide management and research recommendations for this enigmatic predator.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriana Uzqueda
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Scott Burnett
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, QLD, Australia
| | - Lorenzo V Bertola
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia
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19
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Bateman BL, Taylor L, Wilsey C, Wu J, LeBaron GS, Langham G. Risk to North American birds from climate change‐related threats. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Lotem Taylor
- Science DivisionNational Audubon Society New York New York USA
| | - Chad Wilsey
- Science DivisionNational Audubon Society New York New York USA
| | - Joanna Wu
- Science DivisionNational Audubon Society New York New York USA
| | | | - Gary Langham
- American Association of Geographers Washington District of Columbia USA
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20
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Host-parasite interaction augments climate change effect in an avian brood parasite, the lesser cuckoo Cuculus poliocephalus. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
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21
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Brambilla M, Scridel D, Bazzi G, Ilahiane L, Iemma A, Pedrini P, Bassi E, Bionda R, Marchesi L, Genero F, Teufelbauer N, Probst R, Vrezec A, Kmecl P, Mihelič T, Bogliani G, Schmid H, Assandri G, Pontarini R, Braunisch V, Arlettaz R, Chamberlain D. Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co-occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1212-1224. [PMID: 31804736 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2019] [Accepted: 11/30/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole-nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well-understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N-mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate-sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mattia Brambilla
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
- Fondazione Lombardia per l'Ambiente, Settore biodiversità e aree protette, Seveso (MB), Italy
| | - Davide Scridel
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Gaia Bazzi
- Fondazione Lombardia per l'Ambiente, Settore biodiversità e aree protette, Seveso (MB), Italy
| | - Luca Ilahiane
- Fondazione Lombardia per l'Ambiente, Settore biodiversità e aree protette, Seveso (MB), Italy
| | - Aaron Iemma
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
| | - Paolo Pedrini
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
| | - Enrico Bassi
- Parco Nazionale dello Stelvio, Bormio (SO), Italy
| | - Radames Bionda
- Parco Naturale Alpe Veglia e Devero - Alta Valle Antrona, Varzo, Italy
| | - Luigi Marchesi
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
| | - Fulvio Genero
- Riserva Naturale Regionale del Lago di Cornino, Cornino (UD), Italy
| | | | | | - Al Vrezec
- National Institute of Biology, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | | | | | - Giuseppe Bogliani
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Hans Schmid
- Schweizerische Vogelwarte, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Giacomo Assandri
- Museo delle Scienze, Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, Trento, Italy
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | | | - Veronika Braunisch
- Division of Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Raphaël Arlettaz
- Division of Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Dan Chamberlain
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi, Università di Torino, Turin, Italy
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22
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Wauchope-Drumm M, Bentley J, Beaumont LJ, Baumgartner JB, Nipperess DA. Using a species distribution model to guide NSW surveys of the long-footed potoroo (Potorous longipes). AUSTRAL ECOL 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mareshell Wauchope-Drumm
- Department of Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; North Ryde New South Wales 2109 Australia
| | - Joss Bentley
- Office of Environment and Heritage; New South Wales Government; Queanbeyan New South Wales Australia
| | - Linda J. Beaumont
- Department of Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; North Ryde New South Wales 2109 Australia
| | - John B. Baumgartner
- Department of Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; North Ryde New South Wales 2109 Australia
| | - David A. Nipperess
- Department of Biological Sciences; Macquarie University; North Ryde New South Wales 2109 Australia
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23
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Freer JJ, Tarling GA, Collins MA, Partridge JC, Genner MJ. Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer J. Freer
- School of Biological Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK
- British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
| | | | - Martin A. Collins
- British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Lowestoft UK
| | - Julian C. Partridge
- School of Biological Sciences and Oceans Institute University of Western Australia Crawley Western Australia Australia
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24
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Amburgey SM, Miller DAW, Brand A, Dietrich A, Campbell Grant EH. Knowing your limits: estimating range boundaries and co‐occurrence zones for two competing plethodontid salamanders. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- S. M. Amburgey
- Department of Ecosystem Sciences and Management The Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania 16802 USA
- Intercollege Graduate Ecology Program The Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania 16802 USA
| | - D. A. W. Miller
- Department of Ecosystem Sciences and Management The Pennsylvania State University University Park Pennsylvania 16802 USA
| | - A. Brand
- USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center SO Conte Anadromous Fish Research Center Turners Falls Massachusetts 01376 USA
| | - A. Dietrich
- USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center Laurel Maryland 20708 USA
| | - E. H. Campbell Grant
- USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center SO Conte Anadromous Fish Research Center Turners Falls Massachusetts 01376 USA
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25
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Reside AE, Critchell K, Crayn DM, Goosem M, Goosem S, Hoskin CJ, Sydes T, Vanderduys EP, Pressey RL. Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01824. [PMID: 30390399 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 08/16/2018] [Accepted: 09/10/2018] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- April E Reside
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Kay Critchell
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia
| | - Darren M Crayn
- Centre for Tropical Environmental Sustainability Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, 4878, Australia
- Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University, McGregor Road, Smithfield, Queensland, 4878, Australia
| | - Miriam Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Stephen Goosem
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
- Wet Tropics Management Authority, P.O. Box 2050, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Conrad J Hoskin
- College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
| | - Travis Sydes
- Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
| | - Eric P Vanderduys
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, ATSIP PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Queensland, 4814, Australia
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
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26
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Ornelas JF, Licona-Vera Y, Ortiz-Rodriguez AE. Contrasting responses of generalized/specialized mistletoe-host interactions under climate change. ECOSCIENCE 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/11956860.2018.1439297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Juan Francisco Ornelas
- Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Yuyini Licona-Vera
- Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
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27
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da Cunha HF, Ferreira ÉD, Tessarolo G, Nabout JC. Host plant distributions and climate interact to affect the predicted geographic distribution of a Neotropical termite. Biotropica 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/btp.12555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hélida F. da Cunha
- Laboratório de Pesquisa Ecológica e Educação Científica; Universidade Estadual de Goiás - Campus CCET; Anápolis GO Brazil
| | - Érica D. Ferreira
- Laboratório de Pesquisa Ecológica e Educação Científica; Universidade Estadual de Goiás - Campus CCET; Anápolis GO Brazil
| | - Geiziane Tessarolo
- Laboratório de Biogeografia e Ecologia Aquática; Universidade Estadual de Goiás, CCET; Anápolis GO Brazil
| | - João C. Nabout
- Laboratório de Biogeografia e Ecologia Aquática; Universidade Estadual de Goiás, CCET; Anápolis GO Brazil
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28
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Zhang Y, Mathewson PD, Zhang Q, Porter WP, Ran J. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:1804-1816. [PMID: 29251797 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2017] [Revised: 11/17/2017] [Accepted: 11/18/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuke Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Bio-Resource and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Paul D Mathewson
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Qiongyue Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Bio-Resource and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Warren P Porter
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Jianghong Ran
- Key Laboratory of Bio-Resource and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
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29
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Bertola LV, Higgie M, Hoskin CJ. Resolving distribution and population fragmentation in two leaf-tailed gecko species of north-east Australia: key steps in the conservation of microendemic species. AUST J ZOOL 2018. [DOI: 10.1071/zo18036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
North Queensland harbours many microendemic species. These species are of conservation concern due to their small and fragmented populations, coupled with threats such as fire and climate change. We aimed to resolve the distribution and population genetic structure in two localised Phyllurus leaf-tailed geckos: P. gulbaru and P. amnicola. We conducted field surveys to better resolve distributions, used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to assess the potential distribution, and then used the SDMs to target further surveys. We also sequenced all populations for a mitochondrial gene to assess population genetic structure. Our surveys found additional small, isolated populations of both species, including significant range extensions. SDMs revealed the climatic and non-climatic variables that best predict the distribution of these species. Targeted surveys based on the SDMs found P. gulbaru at an additional two sites but failed to find either species at other sites, suggesting that we have broadly resolved their distributions. Genetic analysis revealed population genetic structuring in both species, including deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages. Current and potential threats are overlain on these results to determine conservation listings and identify management actions. More broadly, this study highlights how targeted surveys, SDMs, and genetic data can rapidly increase our knowledge of microendemic species, and direct management.
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30
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Raath MJ, le Roux PC, Veldtman R, Greve M. Incorporating biotic interactions in the distribution models of African wild silk moths (Gonometaspecies, Lasiocampidae) using different representations of modelled host tree distributions. AUSTRAL ECOL 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Morgan Jade Raath
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences; University of Pretoria; Private Bag X20 Pretoria 0002 South Africa
- South African National Biodiversity Institute; Kirstenbosch Research Centre; Claremont South Africa
| | - Peter Christiaan le Roux
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences; University of Pretoria; Private Bag X20 Pretoria 0002 South Africa
| | - Ruan Veldtman
- South African National Biodiversity Institute; Kirstenbosch Research Centre; Claremont South Africa
| | - Michelle Greve
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences; University of Pretoria; Private Bag X20 Pretoria 0002 South Africa
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31
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Bastille-Rousseau G, Schaefer JA, Peers MJL, Ellington EH, Mumma MA, Rayl ND, Mahoney SP, Murray DL. Climate change can alter predator–prey dynamics and population viability of prey. Oecologia 2017; 186:141-150. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-017-4017-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2017] [Accepted: 11/16/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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32
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Vasconcelos TS, Antonelli CP, Napoli MF. Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad-breeding anuran under climate change. AUSTRAL ECOL 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Caio Pastana Antonelli
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas; Universidade Estadual Paulista; 17033-360 Bauru São Paulo Brazil
- Graduação em Ciências Biológicas; Universidade Estadual Paulista; Bauru São Paulo Brazil
| | - Marcelo Felgueiras Napoli
- Museu de Zoologia; Departamento de Zoologia; Instituto de Biologia; Universidade Federal da Bahia; Salvador Bahia Brazil
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33
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Terraube J, Villers A, Poudré L, Varjonen R, Korpimäki E. Increased autumn rainfall disrupts predator-prey interactions in fragmented boreal forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:1361-1373. [PMID: 27371812 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2015] [Accepted: 06/18/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
There is a pressing need to understand how changing climate interacts with land-use change to affect predator-prey interactions in fragmented landscapes. This is particularly true in boreal ecosystems facing fast climate change and intensification in forestry practices. Here, we investigated the relative influence of autumn climate and habitat quality on the food-storing behaviour of a generalist predator, the pygmy owl, using a unique data set of 15 850 prey items recorded in western Finland over 12 years. Our results highlighted strong effects of autumn climate (number of days with rainfall and with temperature <0 °C) on food-store composition. Increasing frequency of days with precipitation in autumn triggered a decrease in (i) total prey biomass stored, (ii) the number of bank voles (main prey) stored, and (iii) the scaled mass index of pygmy owls. Increasing proportions of old spruce forests strengthened the functional response of owls to variations in vole abundance and were more prone to switch from main prey to alternative prey (passerine birds) depending on local climate conditions. High-quality habitat may allow pygmy owls to buffer negative effects of inclement weather and cyclic variation in vole abundance. Additionally, our results evidenced sex-specific trends in body condition, as the scaled mass index of smaller males increased while the scaled mass index of larger females decreased over the study period, probably due to sex-specific foraging strategies and energy requirements. Long-term temporal stability in local vole abundance refutes the hypothesis of climate-driven change in vole abundance and suggests that rainier autumns could reduce the vulnerability of small mammals to predation by pygmy owls. As small rodents are key prey species for many predators in northern ecosystems, our findings raise concern about the impact of global change on boreal food webs through changes in main prey vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julien Terraube
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Alexandre Villers
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014, Turku, Finland
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372, CNRS - Université de la Rochelle, FR79360, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Léo Poudré
- Parc Naturel Régional du Haut-Jura, Maison du Parc du Haut-Jura., 39310, Lajoux, France
| | - Rauno Varjonen
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Erkki Korpimäki
- Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014, Turku, Finland
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Reside AE, VanDerWal J, Moilanen A, Graham EM. Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0172230. [PMID: 28222199 PMCID: PMC5319782 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Accepted: 02/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades, long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning, but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current, 2055 and 2085 projected distributions, and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap), suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region, with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall, species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance, our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current, near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- April E. Reside
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Sciences, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- eResearch Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Atte Moilanen
- Department of Biosciences, (Viikinkaari 1), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Erin M. Graham
- eResearch Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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Bateman BL, Pidgeon AM, Radeloff VC, Flather CH, VanDerWal J, Akçakaya HR, Thogmartin WE, Albright TP, Vavrus SJ, Heglund PJ. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2016; 26:2718-2729. [PMID: 27907262 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2015] [Revised: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 02/25/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L Bateman
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Anna M Pidgeon
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, SILVIS Lab, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
| | - Curtis H Flather
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526, USA
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
- Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - H Resit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA
| | - Wayne E Thogmartin
- U. S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603, USA
| | - Thomas P Albright
- Department of Geography and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology, Laboratory for Conservation Biogeography, University of Nevada-Reno, Reno, Nevada 89577, USA
| | - Stephen J Vavrus
- Center for Climate Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA
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Wen L, Saintilan N, Reid JRW, Colloff MJ. Changes in distribution of waterbirds following prolonged drought reflect habitat availability in coastal and inland regions. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:6672-6689. [PMID: 27777739 PMCID: PMC5058537 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2015] [Revised: 02/12/2016] [Accepted: 03/03/2016] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Provision of suitable habitat for waterbirds is a major challenge for environmental managers in arid and semiarid regions with high spatial and temporal variability in rainfall. It is understood in broad terms that to survive waterbirds must move according to phases of wet–dry cycles, with coastal habitats providing drought refugia and inland wetlands used during the wet phase. However, both inland and coastal wetlands are subject to major anthropogenic pressures, and the various species of waterbird may have particular habitat requirements and respond individualistically to spatiotemporal variations in resource distribution. A better understanding of the relationships between occurrence of waterbirds and habitat condition under changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures will help clarify patterns of habitat use and the targeting of investments in conservation. We provide the first predictive models of habitat availability between wet and dry phases for six widely distributed waterbird species at a large spatial scale. We first test the broad hypothesis that waterbirds are largely confined to coastal regions during a dry phase. We then examine the contrasting results among the six species, which support other hypotheses erected on the basis of their ecological characteristics. There were large increases in area of suitable habitat in inland regions in the wet year compared with the dry year for all species, ranging from 4.14% for Australian White Ibis to 31.73% for Eurasian Coot. With over half of the suitable habitat for three of the six species was located in coastal zones during drought, our study highlights the need to identify and conserve coastal drought refuges. Monitoring of changes in extent and condition of wetlands, combined with distribution modeling of waterbirds, will help support improvements in the conservation and management of waterbirds into the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Wen
- Water, Wetlands and Coastal Science New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage 59-61 Goulburn Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia
| | - Neil Saintilan
- Department of Environmental Sciences Macquarie University Sydney NSW 2019 Australia
| | - Julian R W Reid
- The Fenner School of Environment and Society Australian National University Canberra ACT 2601 Australia
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Van Zuiden TM, Sharma S. Examining the effects of climate change and species invasions on Ontario walleye populations: can walleye beat the heat? DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Sapna Sharma
- Department of Biology; York University; Toronto ON M3J 1P3 Canada
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Bateman BL, Pidgeon AM, Radeloff VC, VanDerWal J, Thogmartin WE, Vavrus SJ, Heglund PJ. The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:1130-44. [PMID: 26691721 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2014] [Revised: 10/09/2015] [Accepted: 10/22/2015] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L Bateman
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Anna M Pidgeon
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, 4811, Australia
- Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, 4811, Australia
| | - Wayne E Thogmartin
- U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, WI, 54603, USA
| | - Stephen J Vavrus
- Center for Climate Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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Labay BJ, Hendrickson DA, Cohen AE, Bonner TH, King RS, Kleinsasser LJ, Linam GW, Winemiller KO. Can Species Distribution Models Aid Bioassessment when Reference Sites are Lacking? Tests Based on Freshwater Fishes. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2015; 56:835-846. [PMID: 26092052 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-015-0567-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Accepted: 06/15/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Recent literature reviews of bioassessment methods raise questions about use of least-impacted reference sites to characterize natural conditions that no longer exist within contemporary landscapes. We explore an alternate approach for bioassessment that uses species site occupancy data from museum archives as input for species distribution models (SDMs) stacked to predict species assemblages of freshwater fishes in Texas. When data for estimating reference conditions are lacking, deviation between richness of contemporary versus modeled species assemblages could provide a means to infer relative biological integrity at appropriate spatial scales. We constructed SDMs for 100 freshwater fish species to compare predicted species assemblages to data on contemporary assemblages acquired by four independent surveys that sampled 269 sites. We then compared site-specific observed/predicted ratios of the number of species at sites to scores from a multimetric index of biotic integrity (IBI). Predicted numbers of species were moderately to strongly correlated with the numbers observed by the four surveys. We found significant, though weak, relationships between observed/predicted ratios and IBI scores. SDM-based assessments identified patterns of local assemblage change that were congruent with IBI inferences; however, modeling artifacts that likely contributed to over-prediction of species presence may restrict the stand-alone use of SDM-derived patterns for bioassessment and therefore warrant examination. Our results suggest that when extensive standardized survey data that include reference sites are lacking, as is commonly the case, SDMs derived from generally much more readily available species site occupancy data could be used to provide a complementary tool for bioassessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben J Labay
- Department of Integrative Biology, Biodiversity Collections, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA,
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40
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Bisi F, Wauters LA, Preatoni DG, Martinoli A. Interspecific competition mediated by climate change: which interaction between brown and mountain hare in the Alps? Mamm Biol 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.mambio.2015.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Alofs KM, Jackson DA. The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario, Canada. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2015; 21:2227-2237. [PMID: 25556555 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2014] [Revised: 12/14/2014] [Accepted: 12/18/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
There is a poor understanding of the importance of biotic interactions in determining species distributions with climate change. Theory from invasion biology suggests that the success of species introductions outside of their historical ranges may be either positively (biotic acceptance) or negatively (biotic resistance) related to native biodiversity. Using data on fish community composition from two survey periods separated by approximately 28 years during which climate was warming, we examined the factors influencing the establishment of three predatory centrarchids: Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu), Largemouth Bass (M. salmoides), and Rock Bass (Ambloplites rupestris) in lakes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario. Variance partitioning demonstrated that, at a regional scale, abiotic factors play a stronger role in determining the establishment of these species than biotic factors. Pairing lakes within watersheds where each species had established with lakes sharing similar abiotic conditions where the species had not established revealed both positive and negative relationships between the establishment of centrarchids and the historical presence of other predatory species. The establishment of these species near their northern range boundaries is primarily determined by abiotic factors at a regional scale; however, biotic factors become important at the lake-to-lake scale. Studies of exotic species invasions have previously highlighted how spatial scale mediates the importance of abiotic vs. biotic factors on species establishment. Our study demonstrates how concepts from invasion biology can inform our understanding of the factors controlling species distributions with changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen M Alofs
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S3B2, Canada
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42
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Porfirio LL, Harris RMB, Lefroy EC, Hugh S, Gould SF, Lee G, Bindoff NL, Mackey B. Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change. PLoS One 2014; 9:e113749. [PMID: 25420020 PMCID: PMC4242662 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 138] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2014] [Accepted: 10/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciana L Porfirio
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Rebecca M B Harris
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Edward C Lefroy
- Centre for the Environment, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Sonia Hugh
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Susan F Gould
- Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
| | - Greg Lee
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Nathaniel L Bindoff
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; Australia Research Council, Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Brendan Mackey
- Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia
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Li R, Xu M, Wong MHG, Qiu S, Sheng Q, Li X, Song Z. Climate change-induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation. DIVERS DISTRIB 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Renqiang Li
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources; the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - Ming Xu
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources; Rutgers University; New Brunswick NJ 08901 USA
| | - Michelle Hang Gi Wong
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources; the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - Shuai Qiu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources; the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - Qingkai Sheng
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources; the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - Xinhai Li
- Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution; Institute of Zoology; the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - Zengming Song
- PRC-GEF Partnership on Land Degradation in Dryland Ecosystems; Beijing China
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Peers MJL, Wehtje M, Thornton DH, Murray DL. Prey switching as a means of enhancing persistence in predators at the trailing southern edge. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:1126-1135. [PMID: 24353147 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2013] [Accepted: 10/11/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the effects of climate change on species' persistence is a major research interest; however, most studies have focused on responses at the northern or expanding range edge. There is a pressing need to explain how species can persist at their southern range when changing biotic interactions will influence species occurrence. For predators, variation in distribution of primary prey owing to climate change will lead to mismatched distribution and local extinction, unless their diet is altered to more extensively include alternate prey. We assessed whether addition of prey information in climate projections restricted projected habitat of a specialist predator, Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and if switching from their primary prey (snowshoe hare; Lepus americanus) to an alternate prey (red squirrel; Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) mitigates range restriction along the southern range edge. Our models projected distributions of each species to 2050 and 2080 to then refine predictions for southern lynx on the basis of varying combinations of prey availability. We found that models that incorporated information on prey substantially reduced the total predicted southern range of lynx in both 2050 and 2080. However, models that emphasized red squirrel as the primary species had 7-24% lower southern range loss than the corresponding snowshoe hare model. These results illustrate that (i) persistence at the southern range may require species to exploit higher portions of alternate food; (ii) selection may act on marginal populations to accommodate phenotypic changes that will allow increased use of alternate resources; and (iii) climate projections based solely on abiotic data can underestimate the severity of future range restriction. In the case of Canada lynx, our results indicate that the southern range likely will be characterized by locally varying levels of mismatch with prey such that the extent of range recession or local adaptation may appear as a geographical mosaic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J L Peers
- Department of Biology, Trent University, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, Canada, K9J 7B8, USA
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Shaping up model transferability and generality of species distribution modeling for predicting invasions: implications from a study on Bythotrephes longimanus. Biol Invasions 2014. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-014-0649-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Bateman BL, Murphy HT, Reside AE, Mokany K, VanDerWal J. Appropriateness of full-, partial- and no-dispersal scenarios in climate change impact modelling. DIVERS DISTRIB 2013. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L. Bateman
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research; School of Marine and Tropical Biology; James Cook University; Townsville; Qld; 4811; Australia
| | - Helen T. Murphy
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and Climate Adaptation Flagship; PO Box 780; Atherton; Qld; 4883; Australia
| | - April E. Reside
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research; School of Marine and Tropical Biology; James Cook University; Townsville; Qld; 4811; Australia
| | - Karel Mokany
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; Climate Adaptation Flagship; PO Box 1700; Canberra; ACT; 2601; Australia
| | - Jeremy VanDerWal
- Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change Research; School of Marine and Tropical Biology; James Cook University; Townsville; Qld; 4811; Australia
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le Roux PC, Lenoir J, Pellissier L, Wisz MS, Luoto M. Horizontal, but not vertical, biotic interactions affect fine-scale plant distribution patterns in a low-energy system. Ecology 2013; 94:671-82. [DOI: 10.1890/12-1482.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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48
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Cormont A, Wieger Wamelink G, Jochem R, WallisDeVries MF, Wegman RM. Host plant-mediated effects of climate change on the occurrence of the Alcon blue butterfly (Phengaris alcon). Ecol Modell 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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