VIRULENCE

Metapopulation heterogeneities in host mobility, productivity, and immunocompetency always increase virulence and infectiousness

The epidemiology and evolution of diseases unfold in populations that are rarely homogeneous. Instead, hosts infected by pathogens often form metapopulations, in which local populations connected by the movement of hosts experience different demographic and epidemiological conditions. Here, we develop a general theory of the evolution of pathogens in heterogeneous metapopulations. We reveal the following key insights into the evolution of pathogen virulence and infectiousness: (1) When the mobility (movement rate), productivity (birth rate and carrying capacity), or immunocompetency (immunity-loss rate) differ among local populations, this variance always increases pathogen virulence and infectiousness (2) The increment of pathogen virulence caused by such heterogeneity is approximately proportional to the variance of the corresponding heterogeneous local conditions (3) This increment can be expressed as the covariance between the local selection pressures and the local reproductive values experienced by the pathogen (4) The reason why heterogeneity always increases pathogen virulence is explained by the positive correlation of local selection pressures with reproductive values (5) Combinations of multiple independent heterogeneities further increase virulence and infectiousness, even more so when their covariances are positive. Our key findings robustly hold for different epidemiological frameworks - including SI, SIS, SIR, and SIRS models, with both density- and frequency-dependent transmission as well as with superinfection. They provide insights into the risks of growing pathogen infectiousness in a world in which heterogeneity - caused, e.g., by the concentration of human populations in urban areas - is rising.

On modes of disease transmission and the hidden shape of pandemics: A review of Asymptomatic by Joshua Weitz

The importance of asymptomatic transmission was a key discovery in our efforts to study and intervene in the COVID-19 pandemic. In Asymptomatic (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2024), Joshua Weitz uses this aspect of SARS-CoV-2 natural history to discuss many counterintuitive characteristics of the pandemic. In this essay, I engage the arguments in the book, and discuss why asymptomatic transmission is such a critical dimension of the study of infectious diseases. I explore ideas contained within Asymptomatic and connect them to related issues in evolutionary virology and disease ecology, including epistemic uncertainty and the evolution of virulence. Furthermore, I comment on the broader messages in the text, including the gap between scientific knowledge and social understanding.

A meta-analysis highlights the idiosyncratic nature of tradeoffs in laboratory models of virus evolution

Different theoretical frameworks have been invoked to guide the study of virus evolution. Three of the more prominent ones are (i) the evolution of virulence, (ii) life history theory, and (iii) the generalism-specialism dichotomy. All involve purported tradeoffs between traits that define the evolvability and constraint of virus-associated phenotypes. However, as popular as these frameworks are, there is a surprising paucity of direct laboratory tests of the frameworks that support their utility as broadly applicable theoretical pillars that can guide our understanding of disease evolution. In this study, we conduct a meta-analysis of direct experimental evidence for these three frameworks across several widely studied virus-host systems: plant viruses, fungal viruses, animal viruses, and bacteriophages. We extracted 60 datasets from 28 studies and found a range of relationships between traits in different analysis categories (e.g., frameworks, virus-host systems). Our work demonstrates that direct evidence for relationships between traits is highly idiosyncratic and specific to the host-virus system and theoretical framework. Consequently, scientists researching viral pathogens from different taxonomic groups might reconsider their allegiance to these canons as the basis for expectation, explanation, or prediction. Future efforts could benefit from consistent definitions, and from developing frameworks that are compatible with the evidence and apply to particular biological and ecological contexts.

Higher body condition with infection by Haemoproteus parasites in Bananaquits (Coereba flaveola)

Parasite transmission is a heterogenous process in host-parasite interactions. This heterogeneity is particularly apparent in vector-borne parasite transmission where the vector adds an additional level of complexity. Haemosporidian parasites, a widespread protist, cause a malaria-like disease in birds globally, but we still have much to learn about the consequences of infection to hosts' health. In the Caribbean, where malarial parasites are endemic, studying host-parasites interactions may give us important insights about energetic trade-offs involved in malarial parasites infections in birds. In this study, we tested the consequences of Haemoproteus infection on the Bananaquit, a resident species of Puerto Rico. We also tested for potential sources of individual heterogeneity in the consequences of infection such as host age and sex. To quantify the consequences of infection to hosts' health we compared three complementary body condition indices between infected and uninfected individuals. Our results showed that Bananaquits infected by Haemoproteus had higher body condition than uninfected individuals. This result was consistent among the three body condition indices. Still, we found no clear evidence that this effect was mediated by host age or sex. We discuss a set of non-mutually exclusive hypotheses that may explain this pattern including metabolic syndrome, immunological responses leading to host tolerance or resistance to infection, and potential changes in consumption rates. Overall, our results suggest that other mechanisms, may drive the consequences of avian malarial infection.

Pharmaceutical pollution alters the cost of bacterial infection and its relationship to pathogen load

The relationship between pathogen proliferation and the cost of infection experienced by a host drives the ecology and evolution of host-pathogen dynamics. While environmental factors can shape this relationship, there is currently limited knowledge on the consequences of emerging contaminants, such as pharmaceutical pollutants, on the relationship between a pathogen's growth within the host and the damage it causes, termed its virulence. Here, we investigated how exposure to fluoxetine (Prozac), a commonly detected psychoactive pollutant, could alter this key relationship using the water flea Daphnia magna and its bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa as a model system. Across a variety of fluoxetine concentrations, we found that fluoxetine shaped the damage a pathogen caused, such as the reduction in fecundity or intrinsic growth experienced by infected individuals, but with minimal change in average pathogen spore loads. Instead, fluoxetine modified the relationship between the degree of pathogen proliferation and its virulence, with both the strength of this trade-off and the component of host fitness most affected varying by fluoxetine concentration and host genotype. Our study underscores the potential for pharmaceutical pollution to modify the virulence of an invading pathogen, as well as the fundamental trade-off between host and pathogen fitness, even at the trace amounts increasingly found in natural waterways.

Death is overrated: the potential role of detection in driving virulence evolution

A common assumption in the evolution of virulence theory literature is that pathogens transmit better when they exploit their host more heavily, but by doing so, they impose a greater risk of killing their host, thus truncating infectious periods and reducing their own opportunities for transmission. Here, I derive an equation for the magnitude of this cost in terms of the infection fatality rate, and in doing so, I show that there are many cases where mortality costs are too small to plausibly constrain increases in host exploitation by pathogens. I propose that pathogen evolution may often be constrained by detection costs, whereby hosts alter their behaviour when infection is detectable, and thus reduce pathogen opportunities for onward transmission. I then derive an inequality to illustrate when mortality costs or detection costs impose stronger constraints on pathogen evolution, and I use empirical data from the literature to demonstrate that detection costs are frequently large in both human and animal populations. Finally, I give examples of how evolutionary predictions can change depending on whether costs of host exploitation are borne out through mortality or detection.

High virulence is associated with pathogen spreadability in a songbird-bacterial system

How directly transmitted pathogens benefit from harming hosts is key to understanding virulence evolution. It is recognized that pathogens benefit from high within-host loads, often associated with virulence. However, high virulence may also directly augment spread of a given amount of pathogen, here termed 'spreadability'. We used house finches and the conjunctival pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum to test whether two components of virulence-the severity of conjunctival inflammation and behavioural morbidity produced-predict pathogen spreadability. We applied ultraviolet powder around the conjunctiva of finches that were inoculated with pathogen treatments of distinct virulence and measured within-flock powder spread, our proxy for 'spreadability'. When compared to uninfected controls, birds infected with a high-virulence, but not low-virulence, pathogen strain, spread significantly more powder to flockmates. Relative to controls, high-virulence treatment birds both had more severe conjunctival inflammation-which potentially facilitated powder shedding-and longer bouts on feeders, which serve as fomites. However, food peck rates and displacements with flockmates were lowest in high-virulence treatment birds relative to controls, suggesting inflammatory rather than behavioural mechanisms likely drive augmented spreadability at high virulence. Our results suggest that inflammation associated with virulence can facilitate pathogen spread to conspecifics, potentially favouring virulence evolution in this system and others.

Vertical and horizontal gene transfer tradeoffs direct plasmid fitness

Plasmid fitness is directed by two orthogonal processes-vertical transfer through cell division and horizontal transfer through conjugation. When considered individually, improvements in either mode of transfer can promote how well a plasmid spreads and persists. Together, however, the metabolic cost of conjugation could create a tradeoff that constrains plasmid evolution. Here, we present evidence for the presence, consequences, and molecular basis of a conjugation-growth tradeoff across 40 plasmids derived from clinical Escherichia coli pathogens. We discover that most plasmids operate below a conjugation efficiency threshold for major growth effects, indicating strong natural selection for vertical transfer. Below this threshold, E. coli demonstrates a remarkable growth tolerance to over four orders of magnitude change in conjugation efficiency. This tolerance fades as nutrients become scarce and horizontal transfer attracts a greater share of host resources. Our results provide insight into evolutionary constraints directing plasmid fitness and strategies to combat the spread of antibiotic resistance.

Parasite-induced shifts in host movement may explain the transient coexistence of high- and low-pathogenic disease strains

Many parasites induce decreased host movement, known as lethargy, which can impact disease spread and the evolution of virulence. Mathematical models have investigated virulence evolution when parasites cause host death, but disease-induced decreased host movement has received relatively less attention. Here, we consider a model where, due to the within-host parasite replication rate, an infected host can become lethargic and shift from a moving to a resting state, where it can die. We find that when the lethargy and disease-induced mortality costs to the parasites are not high, then evolutionary bistability can arise, and either moderate or high virulence can evolve depending on the initial virulence and the magnitude of mutation. These results suggest, firstly, the coexistence of strains with different virulence, which may explain the transient coexistence of low- and high-pathogenic strains of avian influenza viruses, and secondly, that medical interventions to treat the symptoms of lethargy or prevent disease-induced host deaths can result in a large jump in virulence and the rapid evolution of high virulence. In complement to existing results that show bistability when hosts are heterogeneous at the population level, we show that evolutionary bistability may arise due to transmission heterogeneity at the individual host level.

Intraspecific antagonism through viral toxin encoded by chronic Sulfolobus spindle-shaped virus

Virus-host interactions evolve along a symbiosis continuum from antagonism to mutualism. Long-term associations between virus and host, such as those in chronic infection, will select for traits that drive the interaction towards mutualism, especially when susceptible hosts are rare in the population. Virus-host mutualism has been demonstrated in thermophilic archaeal populations where Sulfolobus spindle-shaped viruses (SSVs) provide a competitive advantage to their host Sulfolobus islandicus by producing a toxin that kills uninfected strains. Here, we determine the genetic basis of this killing phenotype by identifying highly transcribed genes in cells that are chronically infected with a diversity of SSVs. We demonstrate that these genes alone confer growth inhibition by being expressed in uninfected cells via a Sulfolobus expression plasmid. Challenge of chronically infected strains with vector-expressed toxins revealed a nested network of cross-toxicity among divergent SSVs, with both broad and specific toxin efficacies. This suggests that competition between viruses and/or their hosts could maintain toxin diversity. We propose that competitive interactions among chronic viruses to promote their host fitness form the basis of virus-host mutualism. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

Water sources aggregate parasites with increasing effects in more arid conditions

Shifts in landscape heterogeneity and climate can influence animal movement in ways that profoundly alter disease transmission. Water sources that are foci of animal activity have great potential to promote disease transmission, but it is unknown how this varies across a range of hosts and climatic contexts. For fecal-oral parasites, water resources can aggregate many different hosts in small areas, concentrate infectious material, and function as disease hotspots. This may be exacerbated where water is scarce and for species requiring frequent water access. Working in an East African savanna, we show via experimental and observational methods that water sources increase the density of wild and domestic herbivore feces and thus, the concentration of fecal-oral parasites in the environment, by up to two orders of magnitude. We show that this effect is amplified in drier areas and drier periods, creating dynamic and heterogeneous disease landscapes across space and time. We also show that herbivore grazing behaviors that expose them to fecal-oral parasites often increase at water sources relative to background sites, increasing potential parasite transmission at these hotspots. Critically, this effect varies by herbivore species, with strongest effects for two animals of concern for conservation and development: elephants and cattle.

Microbial evolution and transitions along the parasite-mutualist continuum

Virtually all plants and animals, including humans, are home to symbiotic microorganisms. Symbiotic interactions can be neutral, harmful or have beneficial effects on the host organism. However, growing evidence suggests that microbial symbionts can evolve rapidly, resulting in drastic transitions along the parasite-mutualist continuum. In this Review, we integrate theoretical and empirical findings to discuss the mechanisms underpinning these evolutionary shifts, as well as the ecological drivers and why some host-microorganism interactions may be stuck at the end of the continuum. In addition to having biomedical consequences, understanding the dynamic life of microorganisms reveals how symbioses can shape an organism's biology and the entire community, particularly in a changing world.

Do mutualistic interactions last longer than antagonistic interactions?

Species interactions are crucial and ubiquitous across organisms. However, it remains unclear how long these interactions last over macroevolutionary timescales, and whether the nature of these interactions (mutualistic versus antagonistic) helps predict how long they persist. Here, we estimated the ages of diverse species interactions, based on phylogenies from 60 studies spanning the Tree of Life. We then tested if mutualistic interactions persist longer than antagonistic interactions. We found that the oldest mutualisms were significantly older than the oldest antagonisms across all organisms, and within plants, fungi, bacteria and protists. Surprisingly, this pattern was reversed in animals, with the oldest mutualisms significantly younger than the oldest antagonisms. We also found that many mutualisms were maintained for hundreds of millions of years (some greater than 1 billion years), providing strong evidence for the long-term stability of mutualisms and for niche conservatism in species interactions.

The early life of a leaf-cutter ant colony constrains symbiont vertical transmission and favors horizontal transmission

Colonial organisms host a large diversity of symbionts (collectively, parasites, mutualists, and commensals) that use vertical transmission (from parent colony to offspring colony) and/or horizontal transmission to disperse between host colonies. The early life of some colonies, characterized by the dispersal and establishment of solitary individuals, may constrain vertical transmission and favor horizontal transmission between large established colonies. We explore this possibility with the miniature cockroach Attaphila fungicola, a symbiont of leaf-cutter ants and the mutualist fungal gardens they cultivate. The early life of a leaf-cutter colony is characterized by the dispersal of a female alate (winged "queen") carrying a fungal pellet, and the subsequent establishment of a foundress (workerless "queen") raising her incipient fungal garden and colony. Roaches hitchhike on female alates during leaf-cutter nuptial flights, which strongly suggests that roaches are vertically transmitted to foundresses and their incipient colonies; however, weak compatibility between roaches and incipient gardens may constrain roach vertical transmission. Reciprocally, opportunities for horizontal transmission between large established colonies with abundant fungal gardens may weaken selection against roach-induced harm (virulence) of incipient gardens. We use a laboratory experiment, behavioral observations, field surveys, and a transmission model to estimate the effect roaches have on the survivorship of incipient gardens and the frequency of roach vertical transmission. Contrary to traditional assumptions, our results indicate that roaches harm incipient gardens and predominantly use horizontal transmission between established leaf-cutter colonies. Ultimately, "costs of generalism" associated with infecting disparate stages of a host's lifecycle (e.g., incipient vs. established colonies) may constrain the vertical transmission of roaches and a broad range of symbionts.

The origins and potential future of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the evolving COVID-19 pandemic

One year into the global COVID-19 pandemic, the focus of attention has shifted to the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). After nearly a year of the pandemic with little evolutionary change affecting human health, several variants have now been shown to have substantial detrimental effects on transmission and severity of the virus. Public health officials, medical practitioners, scientists, and the broader community have since been scrambling to understand what these variants mean for diagnosis, treatment, and the control of the pandemic through nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccines. Here we explore the evolutionary processes that are involved in the emergence of new variants, what we can expect in terms of the future emergence of VOCs, and what we can do to minimise their impact.

Host-multiparasite interactions in amphibians: a review

Parasites, including viruses, bacteria, fungi, protists, helminths, and arthropods, are ubiquitous in the animal kingdom. Consequently, hosts are frequently infected with more than one parasite species simultaneously. The assessment of such co-infections is of fundamental importance for disease ecology, but relevant studies involving non-domesticated animals have remained scarce. Many amphibians are in decline, and they generally have a highly diverse parasitic fauna. Here we review the literature reporting on field surveys, veterinary case studies, and laboratory experiments on co-infections in amphibians, and we summarize what is known about within-host interactions among parasites, which environmental and intrinsic factors influence the outcomes of these interactions, and what effects co-infections have on hosts. The available literature is piecemeal, and patterns are highly diverse, so that identifying general trends that would fit most host–multiparasite systems in amphibians is difficult. Several examples of additive, antagonistic, neutral, and synergistic effects among different parasites are known, but whether members of some higher taxa usually outcompete and override the effects of others remains unclear. The arrival order of different parasites and the time lag between exposures appear in many cases to fundamentally shape competition and disease progression. The first parasite to arrive can gain a marked reproductive advantage or induce cross-reaction immunity, but by disrupting the skin and associated defences (i.e., skin secretions, skin microbiome) and by immunosuppression, it can also pave the way for subsequent infections. Although there are exceptions, detrimental effects to the host are generally aggravated with increasing numbers of co-infecting parasite species. Finally, because amphibians are ectothermic animals, temperature appears to be the most critical environmental factor that affects co-infections, partly via its influence on amphibian immune function, partly due to its direct effect on the survival and growth of parasites. Besides their importance for our understanding of ecological patterns and processes, detailed knowledge about co-infections is also crucial for the design and implementation of effective wildlife disease management, so that studies concentrating on the identified gaps in our understanding represent rewarding research avenues.

Virus shedding kinetics and unconventional virulence tradeoffs

Tradeoff theory, which postulates that virulence provides both transmission costs and benefits for pathogens, has become widely adopted by the scientific community. Although theoretical literature exploring virulence-tradeoffs is vast, empirical studies validating various assumptions still remain sparse. In particular, truncation of transmission duration as a cost of virulence has been difficult to quantify with robust controlled in vivo studies. We sought to fill this knowledge gap by investigating how transmission rate and duration were associated with virulence for infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Using host mortality to quantify virulence and viral shedding to quantify transmission, we found that IHNV did not conform to classical tradeoff theory. More virulent genotypes of the virus were found to have longer transmission durations due to lower recovery rates of infected hosts, but the relationship was not saturating as assumed by tradeoff theory. Furthermore, the impact of host mortality on limiting transmission duration was minimal and greatly outweighed by recovery. Transmission rate differences between high and low virulence genotypes were also small and inconsistent. Ultimately, more virulent genotypes were found to have the overall fitness advantage, and there was no apparent constraint on the evolution of increased virulence for IHNV. However, using a mathematical model parameterized with experimental data, it was found that host culling resurrected the virulence tradeoff and provided low virulence genotypes with the advantage. Human-induced or natural culling, as well as host population fragmentation, may be some of the mechanisms by which virulence diversity is maintained in nature. This work highlights the importance of considering non-classical virulence tradeoffs.

Evaluating alternative hypotheses to explain the downward trend in the indices of the COVID-19 pandemic death rate

BACKGROUND

In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio (CFR) and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-November. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted.

METHODOLOGY

We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyze their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend.

RESULTS

We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the infected population and evolution of the virus towards reduced virulence are the most supported hypotheses and together contribute to major part of the trend. The testable predictions from other explanations including altered testing efficiency, time lag, improved treatment protocols and herd immunity are not consistently supported, or do not appear to make a major contribution to this trend although they may influence some other patterns of the epidemic.

CONCLUSION

The fatality of the infection showed a robust declining time trend between mid April to mid November. Changing age class of the infected and decreasing virulence of the pathogen were found to be the strongest contributors to the trend.

Higher mortality of the less suitable brown trout host compared to the principal Atlantic salmon host when infested with freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) glochidia

The freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) is a highly host-specific parasite, with an obligate parasitic stage on salmonid fish. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta f. trutta and Salmo trutta f. fario) are the only hosts in their European distribution. Some M. margaritifera populations exclusively infest either Atlantic salmon or brown trout, while others infest both hosts with one salmonid species typically being the principal host and the other a less suitable host. Glochidial abundance, prevalence and growth are often used as parameters to measure host suitability, with the most suitable host species displaying the highest parameters. However, it is not known if the degree of host specialisation will negatively influence host fitness (virulence) among different host species. In this study we examined the hypothesis that glochidial infestation would result in differential virulence in two salmonid host species and that lower virulence would be observed on the most suitable host. Atlantic salmon and brown trout were infested with glochidia from two M. margaritifera populations that use Atlantic salmon as their principal host, and the difference in host mortality among infested and control (sham infested) fish was examined. Higher mortality was observed in infested brown trout (the less suitable host) groups, compared to the other test groups. Genetic assignment was used to identify offspring from individual mother mussels. We found that glochidia from individual mothers can infest both the salmonid hosts; however, some mothers displayed a bias towards either salmon or trout. We believe that the differences in host-dependent virulence and the host bias displayed by individual mothers were a result of genotype × genotype interactions between the glochidia and their hosts, indicating that there is an underlying genetic component for this parasite-host interaction.

Timing of infestation influences virulence and parasite success in a dynamic multi-host-parasite interaction between the invasive parasite, Philornis downsi, and Darwin's finches

Recently commenced host-parasite interactions provide an excellent opportunity to study co-evolutionary processes. Multi-host systems are especially informative because variation in virulence between hosts and temporal changes provides insight into evolutionary dynamics. However, empirical data under natural conditions are scarce. In the present study, we investigated the interaction between Darwin's finches and the invasive fly Philornis downsi whose larvae feed on the blood of nestlings. Recently, however, the fly has changed its behavior and now also attacks incubating females. Two sympatric hosts are affected differently by the parasite and parasite load has changed over time. Our study observed a reversal of trends described two decades ago: while, currently, small tree finches (Camarhynchus parvulus) experience significantly higher parasite load than warbler finches (Certhidea olivacea), this was the opposite two decades ago. Currently, fledging success is higher in warbler finches compared to small tree finches. Our data indicate that not only intensity but also timing of infestation influences hosts' reproductive success and parasite fitness. During incubation, prevalence was higher in warbler finches, but once chicks had hatched, prevalence was 100% in both species and parasite load was higher in small tree finches. Furthermore, our results suggest faster development and higher reproductive success of P. downsi in small tree finch nests. A change in host preference driven by larvae competition could have led to the reversal in parasite load.

Experimental evidence for stabilizing selection on virulence in a bacterial pathogen

The virulence‐transmission trade‐off hypothesis has provided a dominant theoretical basis for predicting pathogen virulence evolution, but empirical tests are rare, particularly at pathogen emergence. The central prediction of this hypothesis is that pathogen fitness is maximized at intermediate virulence due to a trade‐off between infection duration and transmission rate. However, obtaining sufficient numbers of pathogen isolates of contrasting virulence to test the shape of relationships between key pathogen traits, and doing so without the confounds of evolved host protective immunity (as expected at emergence), is challenging. Here, we inoculated 55 isolates of the bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, into non‐resistant house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) from populations that have never been exposed to the disease. Isolates were collected over a 20‐year period from outbreak in disease‐exposed populations of house finches and vary markedly in virulence. We found a positive linear relationship between pathogen virulence and transmission rate to an uninfected sentinel, supporting the core assumption of the trade‐off hypothesis. Further, in support of the key prediction, there was no evidence for directional selection on a quantitative proxy of pathogen virulence and, instead, isolates of intermediate virulence were fittest. Surprisingly, however, the positive relationship between virulence and transmission rate was not underpinned by variation in pathogen load or replication rate as is commonly assumed. Our results indicate that selection favors pathogens of intermediate virulence at disease emergence in a novel host species, even when virulence and transmission are not linked to pathogen load.

Social Evolution and Cheating in Plant Pathogens

Plant pathogens are a critical component of the microbiome that exist as populations undergoing ecological and evolutionary processes within their host. Many aspects of virulence rely on social interactions mediated through multiple forms of public goods, including quorum-sensing signals, exoenzymes, and effectors. Virulence and disease progression involve life-history decisions that have social implications with large effects on both host and microbe fitness, such as the timing of key transitions. Considering the molecular basis of sequential stages of plant-pathogen interactions highlights many opportunities for pathogens to cheat, and there is evidence for ample variation in virulence. Case studies reveal systems where cheating has been demonstrated and others where it is likely occurring. Harnessing the social interactions of pathogens, along with leveraging novel sensing and -omics technologies to understand microbial fitness in the field, will enable us to better manage plant microbiomes in the interest of plant health.

Molecular causes of an evolutionary shift along the parasitism-mutualism continuum in a bacterial symbiont

Symbiotic relationships with microbes are ubiquitous among living beings and can be parasitic, such as in bacterial pathogens, or mutualistic, as in beneficial microbiomes. Among other factors, the outcome of microbe–host relationships is determined by the mode of symbiont transmission from host to host. Here we describe how bacterial symbionts increased in infectivity and virulence toward their amoeba host when transmission to a new host was essential for survival. The enhanced parasitism is a result of genomic changes and a pronounced switch of gene expression altering the symbionts’ mechanisms for host interaction. Our study provides both a molecular explanation as well as a blueprint for how changes in gene expression are sufficient to confer enhanced parasitism in microbes.

Symbiosis with microbes is a ubiquitous phenomenon with a massive impact on all living organisms, shaping the world around us today. Theoretical and experimental studies show that vertical transmission of symbionts leads to the evolution of mutualistic traits, whereas horizontal transmission facilitates the emergence of parasitic features. However, these studies focused on phenotypic data, and we know little about underlying molecular changes at the genomic level. Here, we combined an experimental evolution approach with infection assays, genome resequencing, and global gene expression analysis to study the effect of transmission mode on an obligate intracellular bacterial symbiont. We show that a dramatic shift in the frequency of genetic variants, coupled with major changes in gene expression, allow the symbiont to alter its position in the parasitism–mutualism continuum depending on the mode of between-host transmission. We found that increased parasitism in horizontally transmitted chlamydiae residing in amoebae was a result of processes occurring at the infectious stage of the symbiont’s developmental cycle. Specifically, genes involved in energy production required for extracellular survival and the type III secretion system—the symbiont’s primary virulence mechanism—were significantly up-regulated. Our results identify the genomic and transcriptional dynamics sufficient to favor parasitic or mutualistic strategies.

Evolution of drug-resistant and virulent small colonies in phenotypically diverse populations of the human fungal pathogen Candida glabrata

Antimicrobial resistance frequently carries a fitness cost to a pathogen, measured as a reduction in growth rate compared to the sensitive wild-type, in the absence of antibiotics. Existing empirical evidence points to the following relationship between cost of resistance and virulence. If a resistant pathogen suffers a fitness cost in terms of reduced growth rate it commonly has lower virulence compared to the sensitive wild-type. If this cost is absent so is the reduction in virulence. Here we show, using experimental evolution of drug resistance in the fungal human pathogen Candida glabrata, that reduced growth rate of resistant strains need not result in reduced virulence. Phenotypically heterogeneous populations were evolved in parallel containing highly resistant sub-population small colony variants (SCVs) alongside sensitive sub-populations. Despite their low growth rate in the absence of an antifungal drug, the SCVs did not suffer a marked alteration in virulence compared with the wild-type ancestral strain, or their co-isolated sensitive strains. This contrasts with classical theory that assumes growth rate to positively correlate with virulence. Our work thus highlights the complexity of the relationship between resistance, basic life-history traits and virulence.

The socially parasitic ant Polyergus mexicanus has host-associated genetic population structure and related neighbouring colonies

The genetic structure of populations can be both a cause and a consequence of ecological interactions. For parasites, genetic structure may be a consequence of preferences for host species or of mating behaviour. Conversely, genetic structure can influence where conspecific interactions among parasites lay on a spectrum from cooperation to conflict. We used microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic structure of a population of the socially parasitic dulotic (aka "slave-making") ant (Polyergus mexicanus), which is known for its host-specificity and conspecific aggression. First, we assessed whether the pattern of host species use by the parasite has influenced parasite population structure. We found that host species use was correlated with subpopulation structure, but this correlation was imperfect: some subpopulations used one host species nearly exclusively, while others used several. Second, we examined the viscosity of the parasite population by measuring the relatedness of pairs of neighbouring parasitic ant colonies at varying distances from each other. Although natural history observations of local dispersal by queens suggested the potential for viscosity, there was no strong correlation between relatedness and distance between colonies. However, 35% of colonies had a closely related neighbouring colony, indicating that kinship could potentially affect the nature of some interactions between colonies of this social parasite. Our findings confirm that ecological forces like host species selection can shape the genetic structure of parasite populations, and that such genetic structure has the potential to influence parasite-parasite interactions in social parasites via inclusive fitness.

Virulence-mediated infectiousness and activity trade-offs and their impact on transmission potential of influenza patients

Communicable diseases are often virulent, i.e. they cause morbidity symptoms in those infected. While some symptoms may be transmission-enhancing, other symptoms are likely to reduce transmission potential. For human diseases, the reduction in transmission opportunities is commonly caused by reduced activity. There is limited data regarding the potential impact of virulence on transmission potential. We performed an exploratory data analysis of 324 influenza patients at a university health centre during the 2016/2017 influenza season. We classified symptoms as infectiousness-related or morbidity-related and calculated two scores. The scores were used to explore the relationship between infectiousness, morbidity (virulence), and activity level. We found a decrease in the activity level with increasing morbidity scores. There was no consistent pattern between an activity level and an infectiousness score. We also found a positive correlation between morbidity and infectiousness scores. Overall, we find that increasing virulence leads to increased infectiousness and reduced activity, suggesting a trade-off that can impact overall transmission potential. Our findings indicate that a reduction of systemic symptoms may increase host activity without reducing infectiousness. Therefore, interventions should target both systemic- and infectiousness-related symptoms to reduce overall transmission potential. Our findings can also inform simulation models that investigate the impact of different interventions on transmission.

Killer Archaea: Virus-Mediated Antagonism to CRISPR-Immune Populations Results in Emergent Virus-Host Mutualism

Theory, simulation, and experimental evolution demonstrate that diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity to lytic viruses can lead to stochastic virus extinction due to a limited number of susceptible hosts available to each potential new protospacer escape mutation. Under such conditions, theory predicts that to evade extinction, viruses evolve toward decreased virulence and promote vertical transmission and persistence in infected hosts. To better understand the evolution of host-virus interactions in microbial populations with active CRISPR-Cas immunity, we studied the interaction between CRISPR-immune Sulfolobus islandicus cells and immune-deficient strains that are infected by the chronic virus SSV9. We demonstrate that Sulfolobus islandicus cells infected with SSV9, and with other related SSVs, kill uninfected, immune strains through an antagonistic mechanism that is a protein and is independent of infectious virus. Cells that are infected with SSV9 are protected from killing and persist in the population. We hypothesize that this infection acts as a form of mutualism between the host and the virus by removing competitors in the population and ensuring continued vertical transmission of the virus within populations with diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity.IMPORTANCE Multiple studies, especially those focusing on the role of lytic viruses in key model systems, have shown the importance of viruses in shaping microbial populations. However, it has become increasingly clear that viruses with a long host-virus interaction, such as those with a chronic lifestyle, can be important drivers of evolution and have large impacts on host ecology. In this work, we describe one such interaction with the acidic crenarchaeon Sulfolobus islandicus and its chronic virus Sulfolobus spindle-shaped virus 9. Our work expands the view in which this symbiosis between host and virus evolved, describing a killing phenotype which we hypothesize has evolved in part due to the high prevalence and diversity of CRISPR-Cas immunity seen in natural populations. We explore the implications of this phenotype in population dynamics and host ecology, as well as the implications of mutualism between this virus-host pair.

Tissue tropism and transmission ecology predict virulence of human RNA viruses

Novel infectious diseases continue to emerge within human populations. Predictive studies have begun to identify pathogen traits associated with emergence. However, emerging pathogens vary widely in virulence, a key determinant of their ultimate risk to public health. Here, we use structured literature searches to review the virulence of each of the 214 known human-infective RNA virus species. We then use a machine learning framework to determine whether viral virulence can be predicted by ecological traits, including human-to-human transmissibility, transmission routes, tissue tropisms, and host range. Using severity of clinical disease as a measurement of virulence, we identified potential risk factors using predictive classification tree and random forest ensemble models. The random forest approach predicted literature-assigned disease severity of test data with mean accuracy of 89.4% compared to a null accuracy of 74.2%. In addition to viral taxonomy, the ability to cause systemic infection was the strongest predictor of severe disease. Further notable predictors of severe disease included having neural and/or renal tropism, direct contact or respiratory transmission, and limited (0 < R₀ ≤ 1) human-to-human transmissibility. We present a novel, to our knowledge, comparative perspective on the virulence of all currently known human RNA virus species. The risk factors identified may provide novel perspectives in understanding the evolution of virulence and elucidating molecular virulence mechanisms. These risk factors could also improve planning and preparedness in public health strategies as part of a predictive framework for novel human infections.

Comparative analysis using machine learning shows that specificity of tissue tropism and transmission biology can act as predictive risk factors for the virulence of human RNA viruses.

Benefits and Costs of Animal Virulence for Microbes

This essay is written from the vantage point of the microbial world. While the focus of much thought in the microbial pathogenesis and infectious diseases fields has been on the impact of host-microbe interaction on the host, here we ask questions about what happens to the microbe.

This essay is written from the vantage point of the microbial world. While the focus of much thought in the microbial pathogenesis and infectious diseases fields has been on the impact of host-microbe interaction on the host, here we ask questions about what happens to the microbe. What are the costs and benefits for microbes of having the capacity for virulence? Our exploration of this topic leads us to conclude that virulence confers very few benefits for microbes, unless disease is necessary for microbial survival through host-to-host spread. In fact, the capacity for virulence is often fraught with risk for microbes, including host dependence and the threat of extinction. The costs of virulence may explain why, relative to their enormous numbers in nature, very few microbes are actually associated with human and animal disease.

Specificity of resistance and geographic patterns of virulence in a vertebrate host-parasite system

BACKGROUND

Host genotype - parasite genotype co-evolutionary dynamics are influenced by local biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. This results in spatially heterogeneous selection among host populations. How such heterogeneous selection influences host resistance, parasite infectivity and virulence remains largely unknown. We hypothesized that different co-evolutionary trajectories of a vertebrate host-parasite association result in specific virulence patterns when assessed on a large geographic scale. We used two reference host populations of three-spined sticklebacks and nine strains of their specific cestode parasite Schistocephalus solidus from across the Northern Hemisphere for controlled infection experiments. Host and parasite effects on infection phenotypes including host immune gene expression were determined.

RESULTS

S. solidus strains grew generally larger in hosts coming from a population with high parasite diversity and low S. solidus prevalence (DE hosts). Hosts from a population with low parasite diversity and high S. solidus prevalence (NO hosts) were better able to control the parasite's growth, regardless of the origin of the parasite. Host condition and immunological parameters converged upon infection and parasite growth showed the same geographic pattern in both host types.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that NO sticklebacks evolved resistance against a variety of S. solidus strains, whereas DE sticklebacks are less resistant against S. solidus. Our data provide evidence that differences in parasite prevalence can cause immunological heterogeneity and that parasite size, a proxy for virulence and resistance, is, on a geographic scale, determined by main effects of the host and the parasite and less by an interaction of both genotypes.

Assessment of parasite virulence in a natural population of a planktonic crustacean

Background

Understanding the impact of disease in natural populations requires an understanding of infection risk and the damage that parasites cause to their hosts (= virulence). However, because these disease traits are often studied and quantified under controlled laboratory conditions and with reference to healthy control hosts, we have little knowledge about how they play out in natural conditions. In the Daphnia–Pasteuria host–parasite system, field assessments often show very low estimates of virulence, while controlled laboratory experiments indicate extremely high virulence.

Results

To examine this discrepancy, we sampled Daphnia magna hosts from the field during a parasite epidemic and recorded disease traits over a subsequent 3-week period in the laboratory. As predicted for chronic disease where infections in older (larger) hosts are also, on average, older, we found that larger D. magna females were infected more often, had fewer offspring prior to the onset of castration and showed signs of infection sooner than smaller hosts. Also consistent with laboratory experiments, infected animals were found in both sexes and in all sizes of hosts. Infected females were castrated at capture or became castrated soon after. As most females in the field carried no eggs in their brood pouch at the time of sampling, virulence estimates of infected females relative to uninfected females were low. However, with improved feeding conditions in the laboratory, only uninfected females resumed reproduction, resulting in very high relative virulence estimates.

Conclusions

Overall, our study shows that the disease manifestation of P. ramosa, as expressed under natural conditions, is consistent with what we know from laboratory experiments. However, parasite induced fecundity reduction of infected, relative to uninfected hosts depended strongly on the environmental conditions. We argue that this effect is particularly strong for castrating parasites, because infected hosts have low fecundity under all conditions.

Virulence-driven trade-offs in disease transmission: A meta-analysis

The virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host-parasite co-evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within-host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within-host replication rate and virulence, (3) within-host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within-study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade-off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.

Blood parasites in Passeriformes in central Germany: prevalence and lineage diversity of Haemosporida (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon) in six common songbirds

Background

Avian Haemosporida are vector-borne parasites that commonly infect Passeriformes. Molecular analyses revealed a high number of different lineages and lineage specific traits like prevalence and host-specificity, but knowledge of parasite prevalence and lineage diversity in wild birds in Central Germany is still lacking.

Results

Blood samples from a total of 238 adult and 122 nestling songbirds belonging to six species were investigated for infections with avian haemosporidian genera and lineages (Haemoproteus spp., Plasmodium spp., Leucocytozoon spp.) and Trypanosoma avium using PCR, targeting the parasite mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 18S ribosomal RNA. In total, the prevalence in adult birds was 31.3% infected with Haemoproteus, 12.5% with Plasmodium and 71.0% with Leucocytozoon (nestlings excluded). None of the tested birds was infected with Trypanosoma avium. Only in two nestling birds, aged 12–17 days, a Leucocytozoon spp. infection was proven. Among 225 successfully sequenced samples, we found four Haemoproteus, three Plasmodium and 19 Leucocytozoon lineages, including two new Leucocytozoon lineages. Furthermore, we report two new host-lineage associations.

Conclusions

As first study investigating avian haemosporidian parasites in Central Germany, we provide new information on genetic diversity of Haemosporida infecting Passeriformes. We show that even with a small sample size new lineages as well as previously unknown linkages between certain lineages and host species can be detected. This may help to elucidate the diversity of lineages as well as lineage-host-connections of avian Haemosporida.

Analysis of Fitness Trade-Offs in the Host Range Expansion of an RNA Virus, Tobacco Mild Green Mosaic Virus

The acquisition of new hosts provides a virus with more opportunities for transmission and survival but may be limited by across-host fitness trade-offs. Major causes of across-host trade-offs are antagonistic pleiotropy, that is, host differential phenotypic effects of mutations, a Genotype x Environment interaction, and epistasis, a Genotype x Genotype interaction. Here, we analyze if there are trade-offs, and what are the causes, associated with the acquisition by tobacco mild green mosaic virus (TMGMV) of a new host. For this, the multiplication of sympatric field isolates of TMGMV from its wild reservoir host Nicotiana glauca and from pepper crops was quantified in the original and the heterologous hosts. TMGMV isolates from N. glauca were adapted to their host, but pepper isolates were not adapted to pepper, and the acquisition of this new host was associated with a fitness penalty in the original host. Analyses of the collection of field isolates and of mutant genotypes derived from biologically active cDNA clones showed a role of mutations in the coat protein and the 3' untranslated region in determining within-host virus fitness. Fitness depended on host-specific effects of these mutations, on the genetic background in which they occurred, and on higher-order interactions of the type Genotype x Genotype x Environment. These types of effects had been reported to generate across-host fitness trade-offs under experimental evolution. Our results show they may also operate in heterogeneous natural environments and could explain why pepper isolates were not adapted to pepper and their lower fitness in N. glaucaIMPORTANCE The acquisition of new hosts conditions virus epidemiology and emergence; hence it is important to understand the mechanisms behind host range expansion. Experimental evolution studies have identified antagonistic pleiotropy and epistasis as genetic mechanisms that limit host range expansion, but studies from virus field populations are few. Here, we compare the performance of isolates of tobacco mild green mosaic virus from its reservoir host, Nicotiana glauca, and its new host, pepper, showing that acquisition of a new host was not followed by adaptation to it but was associated with a fitness loss in the original host. Analysis of mutations determining host-specific virus multiplication identified antagonistic pleiotropy, epistasis, and host-specific epistasis as mechanisms generating across-host fitness trade-offs that may prevent adaptation to pepper and cause a loss of fitness in N. glauca Thus, mechanisms determining trade-offs, identified under experimental evolution, could also operate in the heterogeneous environment in which natural plant virus populations occur.

Locals get travellers' diarrhoea too: risk factors for diarrhoeal illness and pathogenic Escherichia coli infection across an urban-rural gradient in Ecuador

OBJECTIVES

Diarrhoea is a common and well-studied cause of illness afflicting international travellers. However, traveller's diarrhoea can also result from travel between high and low disease transmission regions within a country, which is the focus of this study.

METHODS

We recruited participants for a case-control study of diarrhoea at four sites along an urban-rural gradient in Northern Ecuador: Quito, Esmeraldas, Borbón and rural communities outside of Borbón. At each of these sites, approximately 100 subjects with diarrhoea (cases) were recruited from Ministry of Health clinics and were age-matched with subjects visiting the same clinics for other complaints (controls).

RESULTS

Travellers to urban destinations had higher risk of diarrhoea and diarrhoeagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) infections. Travel to Quito was associated with diarrhoea (aOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.10-3.68) and travel to Guayaquil (another urban centre in Ecuador) was associated with Diffuse Adherent E. coli infection (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.01-4.33). Compared to those not travelling, urban origins were also associated with greater risk of diarrhoea in Esmeraldas (aOR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.20-4.41), and with higher risk of diarrhoeagenic E. coli infections in Quito (aOR = 2.61, 95% CI = 1.16-5.86), with >50% of travel from Quito and Esmeraldas specified to another urban destination.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that individuals travelling from lower-transmission regions (rural areas) to higher transmission regions (urban centres) within a single country are at a greater risk of acquiring a diarrhoea-related illness. Investments to improve water, sanitation and hygiene conditions in urban areas could have impacts on outlying rural areas within a given country.

Exploring mechanisms that affect coral cooperation: symbiont transmission mode, cell density and community composition

The coral symbiosis is the linchpin of the reef ecosystem, yet the mechanisms that promote and maintain cooperation between hosts and symbionts have not been fully resolved. We used a phylogenetically controlled design to investigate the role of vertical symbiont transmission, an evolutionary mechanism in which symbionts are inherited directly from parents, predicted to enhance cooperation and holobiont fitness. Six species of coral, three vertical transmitters and their closest horizontally transmitting relatives, which exhibit environmental acquisition of symbionts, were fragmented and subjected to a 2-week thermal stress experiment. Symbiont cell density, photosynthetic function and translocation of photosynthetically fixed carbon between symbionts and hosts were quantified to assess changes in physiological performance and cooperation. All species exhibited similar decreases in symbiont cell density and net photosynthesis in response to elevated temperature, consistent with the onset of bleaching. Yet baseline cooperation, or translocation of photosynthate, in ambient conditions and the reduction in cooperation in response to elevated temperature differed among species. Although Porites lobata and Galaxea acrhelia did exhibit the highest levels of baseline cooperation, we did not observe universally higher levels of cooperation in vertically transmitting species. Post hoc sequencing of the Symbiodinium ITS-2 locus was used to investigate the potential role of differences in symbiont community composition. Interestingly, reductions in cooperation at the onset of bleaching tended to be associated with increased symbiont community diversity among coral species. The theoretical benefits of evolving vertical transmission are based on the underlying assumption that the host-symbiont relationship becomes genetically uniform, thereby reducing competition among symbionts. Taken together, our results suggest that it may not be vertical transmission per se that influences host-symbiont cooperation, but genetic uniformity of the symbiont community, although additional work is needed to test this hypothesis.

The phylogenomics of evolving virus virulence

How virulence evolves after a virus jumps to a new host species is central to disease emergence. Our current understanding of virulence evolution is based on insights drawn from two perspectives that have developed largely independently: long-standing evolutionary theory based on limited real data examples that often lack a genomic basis, and experimental studies of virulence-determining mutations using cell culture or animal models. A more comprehensive understanding of virulence mutations and their evolution can be achieved by bridging the gap between these two research pathways through the phylogenomic analysis of virus genome sequence data as a guide to experimental study.

The influence of social behaviour on competition between virulent pathogen strains

Infectious disease interventions like contact precautions and vaccination have proven effective in disease control and elimination. The priority given to interventions can depend strongly on how virulent the pathogen is, and interventions may also depend partly for their success on social processes that respond adaptively to disease dynamics. However, mathematical models of competition between pathogen strains with differing natural history profiles typically assume that human behaviour is fixed. Here, our objective is to model the influence of social behaviour on the competition between pathogen strains with differing virulence. We couple a compartmental Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model for a resident pathogen strain and a mutant strain with higher virulence, with a differential equation of a population where individuals learn to adopt protective behaviour from others according to the prevalence of infection of the two strains and the perceived severity of the respective strains in the population. We perform invasion analysis, time series analysis and phase plane analysis to show that perceived severities of pathogen strains and the efficacy of infection control against them can greatly impact the invasion of more virulent strain. We demonstrate that adaptive social behaviour enables invasion of the mutant strain under plausible epidemiological scenarios, even when the mutant strain has a lower basic reproductive number than the resident strain. Surprisingly, in some situations, increasing the perceived severity of the resident strain can facilitate invasion of the more virulent mutant strain. Our results demonstrate that for certain applications, it may be necessary to include adaptive social behaviour in models of the emergence of virulent pathogens, so that the models can better assist public health efforts to control infectious diseases.

Life-history correlations change under coinfection leading to higher pathogen load

The ability of a parasite strain to establish and grow on its host may be drastically altered by simultaneous infection by other parasite strains. However, we still lack an understanding of how life-history allocations may change under coinfection, although life-history correlations are a critical mechanism restricting the evolutionary potential and epidemiological dynamics of pathogens. Here, we study how life-history stages and their correlations change in the obligate fungal pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis under single infection and coinfection scenarios. We find increased pathogen loads under coinfection, but this is not explained by an enhanced performance at any of the life-history stages that constitute infections. Instead, we show that under coinfection the correlation between timing of sporulation and final pathogen load becomes positive. The changes in pathogen life-history allocations leading to more severe infections under coinfection can have far-reaching epidemiological consequences, as well as implication for our understanding of the evolution of virulence.

Growth rate, transmission mode and virulence in human pathogens

The harm that pathogens cause to hosts during infection, termed virulence, varies across species from negligible to a high likelihood of rapid death. Classic theory for the evolution of virulence is based on a trade-off between pathogen growth, transmission and host survival, which predicts that higher within-host growth causes increased transmission and higher virulence. However, using data from 61 human pathogens, we found the opposite correlation to the expected positive correlation between pathogen growth rate and virulence. We found that (i) slower growing pathogens are significantly more virulent than faster growing pathogens, (ii) inhaled pathogens and pathogens that infect via skin wounds are significantly more virulent than pathogens that are ingested, but (iii) there is no correlation between symptoms of infection that aid transmission (such as diarrhoea and coughing) and virulence. Overall, our results emphasize how virulence can be influenced by mechanistic life-history details, especially transmission mode, that determine how parasites infect and exploit their hosts.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

Virulence evolution of a sterilizing plant virus: Tuning multiplication and resource exploitation

Virulence evolution may have far-reaching consequences for virus epidemiology and emergence, and virologists have devoted increasing effort to understand the modulators of this process. However, still little is known on the mechanisms and determinants of virulence evolution in sterilizing viruses that, as they prevent host reproduction, may have devastating effects on host populations. Theory predicts that sterilizing parasites, including viruses, would evolve towards lower virulence and absolute host sterilization to optimize the exploitation of host resources and maximize fitness. However, this hypothesis has seldom been analyzed experimentally. We investigated the evolution of virulence of the sterilizing plant virus Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) in its natural host Arabidopsis thaliana by serial passage experiments. After passaging, we quantified virus accumulation and infectivity, the effect of infection on plant growth and development, and virulence of the ancestral and passaged viral genotypes in A. thaliana. Results indicated that serial passaging increased the proportion of infected plants showing absolute sterility, reduced TuMV virulence, and increased virus multiplication and infectivity. Genomic comparison of the ancestral and passaged TuMV genotypes identified significant mutation clustering in the P1, P3, and 6K2 proteins, suggesting a role of these viral proteins in the observed phenotypic changes. Our results support theoretical predictions on the evolution of virulence of sterilizing parasites and contribute to better understand the phenotypic and genetic changes associated with this process.

Reverse Engineering Field Isolates of Myxoma Virus Demonstrates that Some Gene Disruptions or Losses of Function Do Not Explain Virulence Changes Observed in the Field

The coevolution of myxoma virus (MYXV) and wild European rabbits in Australia and Europe is a paradigm for the evolution of a pathogen in a new host species. Genomic analyses have identified the mutations that have characterized this evolutionary process, but defining causal mutations in the pathways from virulence to attenuation and back to virulence has not been possible. Using reverse genetics, we examined the roles of six selected mutations found in Australian field isolates of MYXV that fall in known or potential virulence genes. Several of these mutations occurred in genes previously identified as virulence genes in whole-gene knockout studies. Strikingly, no single or double mutation among the mutations tested had an appreciable impact on virulence. This suggests either that virulence evolution was defined by amino acid changes other than those analyzed here or that combinations of multiple mutations, possibly involving epistatic interactions or noncoding sequences, have been critical in the ongoing evolution of MYXV virulence. In sum, our results show that single-gene knockout studies of a progenitor virus can have little power to predict the impact of individual mutations seen in the field. The genetic determinants responsible for this canonical case of virulence evolution remain to be determined.IMPORTANCE The species jump of myxoma virus (MYXV) from the South American tapeti to the European rabbit populations of Australia and Europe is a canonical example of host-pathogen coevolution. Detailed molecular studies have identified multiple genes in MYXV that are critical for virulence, and genome sequencing has revealed the evolutionary history of MYXV in Australia and Europe. However, it has not been possible to categorically identify the key mutations responsible for the attenuation of or reversion to virulence during this evolutionary process. Here we use reverse genetics to examine the role of mutations in viruses isolated early and late in the Australian radiation of MYXV. Surprisingly, none of the candidate mutations that we identified as likely having roles in attenuation proved to be important for virulence. This indicates that considerable caution is warranted when interpreting the possible role of individual mutations during virulence evolution.

Host population structure impedes reversion to drug sensitivity after discontinuation of treatment

Intense use of antibiotics for the treatment of diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria, Staphylococcus aureus or gonorrhea has led to rapidly increasing population levels of drug resistance. This has generally necessitated a switch to new drugs and the discontinuation of older ones, after which resistance often only declines slowly or even persists indefinitely. These long-term effects are usually ascribed to low fitness costs of resistance in absence of the drug. Here we show that structure in the host population, in particular heterogeneity in number of contacts, also plays an important role in the reversion dynamics. Host contact structure acts both during the phase of intense treatment, leading to non-random distributions of the resistant strain among the infected population, and after the discontinuation of the drug, by affecting the competition dynamics resulting in a mitigation of fitness advantages. As a consequence, we observe both a lower rate of reversion and a lower probability that reversion to sensitivity on the population level occurs after treatment is stopped. Our simulations show that the impact of heterogeneity in the host structure is maximal in the biologically most plausible parameter range, namely when fitness costs of resistance are small.

Next step in the ongoing arms race between myxoma virus and wild rabbits in Australia is a novel disease phenotype

In host-pathogen arms races, increases in host resistance prompt counteradaptation by pathogens, but the nature of that counteradaptation is seldom directly observed outside of laboratory models. The best-documented field example is the coevolution of myxoma virus (MYXV) in European rabbits. To understand how MYXV in Australia has continued to evolve in wild rabbits under intense selection for genetic resistance to myxomatosis, we compared the phenotypes of the progenitor MYXV and viral isolates from the 1950s and the 1990s in laboratory rabbits with no resistance. Strikingly, and unlike their 1950s counterparts, most virus isolates from the 1990s induced a highly lethal immune collapse syndrome similar to septic shock. Thus, the next step in this canonical case of coevolution after a species jump has been further escalation by the virus in the face of widespread host resistance.