Ecology of hantavirus in a changing world

Land-cover, land-use and human hantavirus infection risk: a systematic review

Previous studies suggest that the risk of human infection by hantavirus, a family of rodent-borne viruses, might be affected by different environmental determinants such as land cover, land use and land use change. This study examined the association between land-cover, land-use, land use change, and human hantavirus infection risk. PubMed and Scopus databases were interrogated using terms relative to land use (change) and human hantavirus disease. Screening and selection of the articles were completed by three independent reviewers. Classes of land use assessed by the different studies were categorized into three macro-categories of exposure ('Agriculture', 'Forest Cover', 'Urban Areas') to qualitatively synthesize the direction of the association between exposure variables and hantavirus infection risk in humans. A total of 25 articles were included, with 14 studies (56%) conducted in China, 4 studies (16%) conducted in South America and 7 studies (28%) conducted in Europe. Most of the studies (88%) evaluated land cover or land use, while 3 studies (12%) evaluated land use change, all in relation to hantavirus infection risk. We observed that land cover and land-use categories could affect hantavirus infection incidence. Overall, agricultural land use was positively associated with increased human hantavirus infection risk, particularly in China and Brazil. In Europe, a positive association between forest cover and hantavirus infection incidence was observed. Studies that assessed the relationship between built-up areas and hantavirus infection risk were more variable, with studies reporting positive, negative or no associations.

Distribution and prevalence of Sin Nombre hantavirus in rodent species in eastern New Mexico

Orthohantaviruses are diverse zoonotic RNA viruses. Small mammals, such as mice and rats are common chronic, asymptomatic hosts that transmit the virus through their feces and urine. In North America, hantavirus infection primarily causes hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), which has a mortality rate of nearly 36%. In the United States of America, New Mexico (NM) is leading the nation in the number of HCPS-reported cases (N = 129). However, no reported cases of HCPS have occurred within eastern NM. In this study, we assessed the prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in rodent assemblages across eastern NM, using RT-qPCR. We screened for potential rodent hosts in the region, as well as identified areas that may pose significant infection risk to humans. We captured and collected blood and lung tissues from 738 rodents belonging to 23 species. 167 individuals from 16 different species were positive for SNV RNA by RT-qPCR, including 6 species unreported in the literature: Onychomys leucogaster (Northern grasshopper mouse), Dipodomys merriami (Merriam's kangaroo rat), Dipodomys ordii (Ord's kangaroo rat), Dipodomys spectabilis (Banner-tailed kangaroo rat), Perognathus flavus (Silky pocket mouse), and Chaetodipus hispidus (Hispid pocket mouse). The infection rates did not differ between sexes or rodent families (i.e., Cricetidae vs. Heteromyidae). Generalized linear model showed that disturbed habitat types positively influenced the prevalence of SNV at sites of survey. Overall, the results of this study indicate that many rodent species in east New Mexico have the potential to maintain SNV in the environment, but further research is needed to assess species specific infectivity mechanisms and potential risk to humans.

Lessons Learned From the U.S. Military Experience With Hantavirus During the Korean War

INTRODUCTION

The Korean War (1950-1953) consisted of two phases. The first was a rapid mobile phase, and the second was a slow and stationary phase. During the stationary phase, approximately 3,000 UN troops became infected with a then unknown agent. The resulting illness began with flu-like symptoms and often progressed to a severe hemorrhagic fever leading to kidney failure and death. However, the cause was not to be identified until well over 20 years following the conclusion of the war when Dr. Ho Wang Lee succeeded in isolating Hantavirus from field rodents. The U.S. Military experience with Hantavirus during the Korean War is a case study of the potential impact of war-related environmental change on disease transmission. The lessons learned from this experience should inform future military medical planning and serve as a reminder of the impact that an unknown agent can have on military operations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A literature review of all available records with respect to the U.S. Military experience with Hantavirus was conducted. PubMed was the primary search engine used for this review. However, primary literature and historical accounts were also evaluated. All records were examined for environmental, epidemiological, and public health data regarding hemorrhagic fever outbreaks among U.S. forces during the Korean War. The quantitative and qualitative data from these sources were analyzed and evaluated within the context of military medical planning and force health protection to derive lessons learned that should be applied to the management and mitigation of viral disease in future wars.

RESULTS

Widespread deforestation resulting from war-related efforts most likely played a significant role in the outbreaks of Hantavirus among UN forces during the war. A lack of cultural literacy and an overreliance on erroneous assumptions most likely delayed the identification of the true causative agent. It is conceivable that these delays led to an increased casualty rate and that they had a negative impact on military operations during the war.

CONCLUSIONS

A basic understanding of the ecological mechanisms that maintain species diversity in the local environment coupled with an appreciation for the impact of environmental change on this diversity is of paramount importance for the prevention and mitigation of viral disease outbreaks in the deployed setting. Military medical planners should become familiar with the medical literature of the region in which they will be operating as this literature often describes the agents that will most likely be encountered by U.S. forces.

Habitat quality influences pollinator pathogen prevalence through both habitat-disease and biodiversity-disease pathways

The dilution effect hypothesis posits that increasing biodiversity reduces infectious disease transmission. Here, we propose that habitat quality might modulate this negative biodiversity-disease relationship. Habitat may influence pathogen prevalence directly by affecting host traits like nutrition and immune response (we coined the term "habitat-disease relationship" to describe this phenomenon) or indirectly by changing host biodiversity (biodiversity-disease relationship). We used a path model to test the relative strength of links between habitat, biodiversity, and pathogen prevalence in a pollinator-virus system. High-quality habitat metrics were directly associated with viral prevalence, providing evidence for a habitat-disease relationship. However, the strength and direction of specific habitat effects on viral prevalence varied based on the characteristics of the habitat, host, and pathogen. In general, more natural area and richness of land-cover types were directly associated with increased viral prevalence, whereas greater floral density was associated with reduced viral prevalence. More natural habitat was also indirectly associated with reduced prevalence of two key viruses (black queen cell virus and deformed wing virus) via increased pollinator species richness, providing evidence for a habitat-mediated dilution effect on viral prevalence. Biodiversity-disease relationships varied across viruses, with the prevalence of sacbrood virus not being associated with any habitat quality or pollinator community metrics. Across all viruses and hosts, habitat-disease and biodiversity-disease paths had effects of similar magnitude on viral prevalence. Therefore, habitat quality is a key driver of variation in pathogen prevalence among communities via both direct habitat-disease and indirect biodiversity-disease pathways, though the specific patterns varied among different viruses and host species. Critically, habitat-disease relationships could either contribute to or obscure dilution effects in natural systems depending on the relative strength and direction of the habitat-disease and biodiversity-disease pathways in that host-pathogen system. Therefore, habitat may be an important driver in the complex interactions between hosts and pathogens.

Phylogeographic analysis of Tula hantavirus highlights a single introduction to central Europe

Orthohantaviruses are zoonotic pathogens of humans, unique among the bunyaviruses in not being transmitted by an arthropod vector. Tula orthohantavirus (TULV) is an old-world hantavirus, of yet unclear human pathogenicity, with few reported cases of clinically relevant human infection. So far, phylogeographic studies exploring the global pathways of hantaviral migration are scarce and generally do not focus on a specific hantavirus species. The aim of the present study was to reconstruct the dispersal history of TULV lineages across Eurasia based on S segment sequences sampled from different geographic areas. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference methods were used to perform the phylogenetic analysis and phylogeographic reconstructions. Sampling time and trapping localities were obtained for a total of 735 TULV S segment sequences available in public databases at the time of the study. The estimated substitution rate of the analyzed partial S segment alignment was 2.26 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year (95 per cent highest posterior density interval: 1.79 × 10-3 to 2.75 × 10-3). Continuous phylogeography of TULV S segment sequences placed the potential root and origin of TULV spread in the Black Sea region. In our study, we detect a single-lineage introduction of TULV to Europe, followed by local viral circulation further on.

First study of Seoul virus (SEOV) in urban rodents from newly urbanized areas of Gran La Plata, Argentina

Alterations of ecosystems have deep effects on the distribution of parasites. Big cities of Argentina present structural features that favor the presence of synanthropic species, acting as source of zoonotic diseases, for example in urban rodents: the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) and the black rat (R. rattus). One of the important zoonotic pathogens related are the RNA virus Hantavirus, with high prevalence rates in South America. The aim of this study was to explore and identify the presence of Hantavirus in urban rodents from Gran La Plata, Argentina. The presence of anti-hantavirus IgG antibodies was determined by the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay. Six samples turned out positive for Seoul virus (SEOV, p = 14.3%). These are the first records of SEOV in urban rodents in Gran La Plata. It represents the first report in R. rattus in Argentina, and in America. This situation underscores the inequality and historical forgetfulness of a portion of society, calling for urgent action to be taken in this regard.

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.

Detection and Genetic Characterization of Seoul Virus in Liver Tissue Samples From Rattus norvegicus and Rattus tanezumi in Urban Areas of Southern China

Rodents are important hosts of hantaviruses, and lungs and kidneys are known to be the preferred organs of these viruses. Recently, hantaviruses were detected in liver samples from wild rodents in Hungary and the United States, and feeder rats in the Netherlands. However, few studies have detected hantaviruses in the liver of rats from China. In this study, hantaviruses were investigated in liver samples from R. norvegicus and R. tanezumi trapped in urban areas of southern China. A total of 461 R. norvegicus and 64 R. tanezumi were trapped. Using a pan-hantavirus PCR method, hantaviruses were detected in liver, lung, and serum samples from these animals. About 7.43% of liver samples were positive for Seoul virus (SEOV). The detection rate of SEOV in liver samples from R. norvegicus (8.24%) was higher than that from R. tanezumi (1.56%), suggesting the predominant role of R. norvegicus in the transmission of SEOV in urban areas of China. Three R. norvegicus had SEOV RNA in their liver samples but not in their lung samples, suggesting that the liver might be one of the targeted organs of SEOV. The first full SEOV protein-coding sequences (CDS) of the S and M segments, and partial CDS of the L segment from R. tanezumi were amplified. Several full and partial CDS of the S, M, and L segments from R. norvegicus were also obtained. The SEOV sequences obtained from different animals were highly similar, suggesting the cross-species transmission potential of SEOV between R. norvegicus and R. tanezumi.

Impact of Landscape on Host-Parasite Genetic Diversity and Distribution Using the Puumala orthohantavirus-Bank Vole System

In nature, host specificity has a strong impact on the parasite's distribution, prevalence, and genetic diversity. The host's population dynamics is expected to shape the distribution of host-specific parasites. In turn, the parasite's genetic structure is predicted to mirror that of the host. Here, we study the tandem Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV)-bank vole system. The genetic diversity of 310 bank voles and 33 PUUV isolates from 10 characterized localities of Northeast France was assessed. Our findings show that the genetic diversity of both PUUV and voles, was positively correlated with forest coverage and contiguity of habitats. While the genetic diversity of voles was weakly structured in space, that of PUUV was found to be strongly structured, suggesting that the dispersion of voles was not sufficient to ensure a broad PUUV dissemination. Genetic diversity of PUUV was mainly shaped by purifying selection. Genetic drift and extinction events were better reflected than local adaptation of PUUV. These contrasting patterns of microevolution have important consequences for the understanding of PUUV distribution and epidemiology.

Immune response during hantavirus diseases: implications for immunotherapies and vaccine design

Orthohantaviruses, previously named hantaviruses, cause two emerging zoonotic diseases: haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas. Overall, over 200 000 cases are registered every year worldwide, with a fatality rate ranging between 0·1% and 15% for HFRS and between 20% and 40% for HCPS. No specific treatment or vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat or prevent hantavirus-caused syndromes. Currently, little is known about the mechanisms at the basis of hantavirus-induced disease. However, it has been hypothesized that an excessive inflammatory response plays an essential role in the course of the disease. Furthermore, the contributions of the cellular immune response to either viral clearance or pathology have not been fully elucidated. This article discusses recent findings relative to the immune responses elicited to hantaviruses in subjects suffering HFRS or HCPS, highlighting the similarities and differences between these two clinical diseases. Also, we summarize the most recent data about the cellular immune response that could be important for designing new vaccines to prevent this global public health problem.

Is Carriage of Leptospira interrogans by Rats Influenced by the Urban Environment or Population Density?

Leptospira interrogans is one of the most important zoonotic pathogens globally. In urban settings, Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are important reservoirs of L. interrogans, but it is unclear how this bacterium is transmitted among rats. Both environmental features and rat population density may determine the prevalence of this pathogen in rat populations as well as the spillover risk to people. While these factors could play an important role in transmission between rats, it is unknown whether such factors influence prevalence among rats at a fine scale. Our objective was to determine if carriage of L. interrogans by rats could be explained by variation in the environment or in rat population density. Rats were live-trapped in a single neighborhood of Vancouver, Canada during two study periods (2011-12; 2016-17) and were tested for L. interrogans. The physical environment of each city block was recorded using a comprehensive, in-person environmental survey. Using generalized linear mixed modelling, we found no evidence of an association between carriage of L. interrogans and environmental features or rat population density, suggesting that these were not the primary drivers of its distribution among rats within this neighborhood. Understanding factors that promote L. interrogans transmission can be used to inform management approaches to minimize public health risks.

Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in Huludao City, northeastern China, 2007-2018

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a severe public health threat. Previous studies have discovered the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence, while few studies have concentrated on the stratified analysis of delayed effects and interaction effects of meteorological factors on HFRS.

Objective

Huludao City is a representative area in north China that suffers from HFRS with primary transmission by Rattus norvegicus. This study aimed to evaluate the climate factors of lag, interaction, and stratified effects of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Huludao City.

Methods

Our researchers collected meteorological data and epidemiological data of HFRS cases in Huludao City during 2007–2018. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for a maximum lag of 16 weeks was developed to assess the respective lag effect of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on HFRS incidence. We then constructed a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the interaction effect between temperature and the other two meteorological factors on HFRS incidence and the stratified effect of meteorological factors.

Results

During the study period, 2751 cases of HFRS were reported in Huludao City. The incidence of HFRS showed a seasonal trend and peak times from February to May. Using the median WAT, median WTP, and median WARH as the reference, the results of DLNM showed that extremely high temperature (97.5^th percentile of WAT) had significant associations with HFRS at lag week 15 (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.04–2.74) and lag week 16 (RR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.31–5.95). Under the extremely low temperature (2.5^th percentile of WAT), the RRs of HFRS infection were significant at lag week 5 (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01–1.67) and lag 6 weeks (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.57). The RRs of relative humidity were statistically significant at lag week 10 (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and lag week 11 (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) under extremely high relative humidity (97.5^th percentile of WARH); however, no statistically significance was observed under extremely low relative humidity (2.5^th percentile of WARH). The RRs were significantly high when WAT was -10 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.02–1.76), -9 degrees Celsius (1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.79), and -8 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03–1.75) at lag week 5 and more than 23 degrees Celsius after 15 weeks. Interaction and stratified analyses showed that the risk of HFRS infection reached its highest when both temperature and precipitation were at a high level.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, have delayed effects on the occurrence of HFRS in the study area, and the effect of temperature can be modified by humidity and precipitation. Public health professionals should pay more attention to HFRS control when the weather conditions of high temperature with more substantial precipitation and 15 weeks after the temperature is higher than 23 degrees Celsius.

Climate change impacts vector-borne disease incidence by influencing vectors’ habitat and behaviors. As a rodent-borne disease, HFRS’s incidence rate fluctuates with the change of meteorological factors. In this study, we model the meteorological factors and time-series cases to explore the exposure-lag-response effect and interaction between meteorological factors on the risk of HFRS, respectively. The result showed there exist a lag effect between meteorological factors and the occurrence of HFRS and we find that a temperature higher than 23 Celsius degrees resulted in a significantly higher HFRS incidence after 15 weeks; a relative humidity higher than 93% led to a significantly higher incidence after 10 weeks. Also, a synergistic interaction between high temperature and high precipitation on HFRS risk was detected, this effect can be attributed to increased animal reproduction and food resources under this environment. This study provides a basis for in-depth evaluating the impact of meteorological factors and their interaction on HFRS.

Exotic Pinus radiata Plantations do not Increase Andes Hantavirus Prevalence in Rodents

Andes south virus (ANDV) is the etiologic agent of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) in Chile and southern Argentina. Farm and forestry workers have been identified as a group at high risk of acquiring HCPS caused by ANDV due to their close exposure to rodents or their secretions in rural areas. Therefore, investigation on the effect of landscape composition on ANDV in wild rodents becomes relevant for disease prevention and control. In this study, we analyzed the influence of Monterey pine (Pinus radiata) plantations, an important monoculture in the global forest industry, on small mammal assemblage and on ANDV seroprevalence and abundance of seropositive rodents from central Chile. Small mammals were sampled seasonally during 2 years in native forests, adult pine plantations and young pine plantations. A total of 1630 samples from seven rodent species were analyzed for antibody detection. ANDV seroprevalence and abundance of seropositive rodents were significantly higher in the native forest compared to pine plantations. Furthermore, Monterey pine plantations decrease the abundance and relative abundance of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (the principal reservoir of ANDV) and do not change sex ratio and distribution of age classes of this rodent species, which are variables that are important for ANDV transmission. Our findings indicate that Monterey pine plantations would not pose a higher risk of human exposure to ANDV compared to the temperate native forest. Our results can be useful for hantavirus risks assessment in human-dominated areas where ANDV is endemic.

Effects of climate factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changchun, 2013 to 2017

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by hantaviruses (HVs). Climate factors have a significant impact on the transmission of HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS and identified the roles of climate factors in its transmission in Changchun, China.Surveillance data of HFRS cases and data on related environmental variables from 2013 to 2017 were collected. A principal components regression (PCR) model was used to quantify the relationship between climate factors and transmission of HFRS.During 2013 to 2017, a distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. Four principal components were extracted, with a cumulative contribution rate of 89.282%. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained by the PCR model (F = 10.050, P <.001, adjusted R = 0.456) than by the general multiple regression model (F = 2.748, P <.005, adjusted R = 0.397).The monthly trends of HFRS were positively correlated with the mean wind velocity but negatively correlated with the mean temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and accumulative precipitation of the different previous months. The study results may be useful for the development of HFRS preventive initiatives that are customized for Changchun regarding specific climate environments.

Spatial dynamics of a zoonotic orthohantavirus disease through heterogenous data on rodents, rodent infections, and human disease

Zoonotic diseases are challenging to study from the ecological point of view as, broadly speaking, datasets tend to be either detailed on a small spatial extent, or coarse on a large spatial extent. Also, there are many ways to assess zoonotic disease transmission systems, from pathogens to hosts to humans. We explore the complementarity of datasets considering the pathogen in its host, the host and human cases in the context of Puumala orthohantavirus infection in Germany. We selected relevant environmental predictors using a conceptual framework based on resource-based habitats. This framework assesses the functions, and associated environmental resources of the pathogen and associated host. A resource-based habitat framework supports variable selection and result interpretation. Multiplying ‘keyholes’ to view a zoonotic disease transmission system is valuable, but requires a strong conceptual framework to select and interpret environmental explanatory variables. This study highlights the usefulness of a structured, ecology-based approach to study drivers of zoonotic diseases at the level of virus, host, and human - not only for PUUV but also for other zoonotic pathogens. Our results show that human disease cases are best explained by a combination of variables related to zoonotic pathogen circulation and human exposure.

Two Point Mutations in Old World Hantavirus Glycoproteins Afford the Generation of Highly Infectious Recombinant Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Vectors

Human hantavirus infections cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. No FDA-approved vaccines and therapeutics exist for these deadly viruses, and their development is limited by the requirement for high biocontainment. In this study, we identified and characterized key amino acid changes in the surface glycoproteins of HFRS-causing Hantaan virus that enhance their incorporation into recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV) particles. The replication-competent rVSVs encoding Hantaan virus and Dobrava-Belgrade virus glycoproteins described in this work provide a powerful and facile system to study hantavirus entry under lower biocontainment and may have utility as hantavirus vaccines.

Rodent-to-human transmission of hantaviruses is associated with severe disease. Currently, no FDA-approved, specific antivirals or vaccines are available, and the requirement for high biocontainment (biosafety level 3 [BSL-3]) laboratories limits hantavirus research. To study hantavirus entry in a BSL-2 laboratory, we set out to generate replication-competent, recombinant vesicular stomatitis viruses (rVSVs) bearing the Gn and Gc (Gn/Gc) entry glycoproteins. As previously reported, rVSVs bearing New World hantavirus Gn/Gc were readily rescued from cDNAs, but their counterparts bearing Gn/Gc from the Old World hantaviruses, Hantaan virus (HTNV) or Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV), were refractory to rescue. However, serial passage of the rescued rVSV-HTNV Gn/Gc virus markedly increased its infectivity and capacity for cell-to-cell spread. This gain in viral fitness was associated with the acquisition of two point mutations: I532K in the cytoplasmic tail of Gn and S1094L in the membrane-proximal stem of Gc. Follow-up experiments with rVSVs and single-cycle VSV pseudotypes confirmed these results. Mechanistic studies revealed that both mutations were determinative and contributed to viral infectivity in a synergistic manner. Our findings indicate that the primary mode of action of these mutations is to relocalize HTNV Gn/Gc from the Golgi complex to the cell surface, thereby affording significantly enhanced Gn/Gc incorporation into budding VSV particles. Finally, I532K/S1094L mutations in DOBV Gn/Gc permitted the rescue of rVSV-DOBV Gn/Gc, demonstrating that incorporation of cognate mutations into other hantaviral Gn/Gc proteins could afford the generation of rVSVs that are otherwise challenging to rescue. The robust replication-competent rVSVs, bearing HTNV and DOBV Gn/Gc, reported herein may also have utility as vaccines.

Spatial heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome is driven by environmental factors and rodent community composition

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused mainly by two hantaviruses in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus. Environmental factors can significantly affect the risk of contracting hantavirus infections, primarily through their effects on rodent population dynamics and human-rodent contact. We aimed to clarify the environmental risk factors favoring rodent-to-human transmission to provide scientific evidence for developing effective HFRS prevention and control strategies. The 10-year (2006-2015) field surveillance data from the rodent hosts for hantavirus, the epidemiological and environmental data extracted from satellite images and meteorological stations, rodent-to-human transmission rates and impacts of the environment on rodent community composition were used to quantify the relationships among environmental factors, rodent species and HFRS occurrence. The study included 709 cases of HFRS. Rodent species in Chenzhou, a hantavirus hotspot, comprise mainly Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, R. flavipectus and some other species (R. losea and Microtus fortis calamorum). The rodent species played different roles across the various land types we examined, but all of them were associated with transmission risks. Some species were associated with HFRS occurrence risk in forest and water bodies. R. norvegicus and R. flavipectus were associated with risk of HFRS incidence in grassland, whereas M. musculus and R. flavipectus were associated with this risk in built-on land. The rodent community composition was also associated with environmental variability. The predictive risk models based on these significant factors were validated by a good-fit model, where: cultivated land was predicted to represent the highest risk for HFRS incidence, which accords with the statistics for HFRS cases in 2014-2015. The spatial heterogeneity of HFRS disease may be influenced by rodent community composition, which is associated with local environmental conditions. Therefore, future work should focus on preventing HFRS is moist, warm environments.

Distributional ecology of Andes hantavirus: a macroecological approach

BACKGROUND

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an infection endemic in Chile and Argentina, caused by Andes hantavirus (ANDV). The rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is suggested as the main reservoir, although several other species of Sigmodontinae are known hosts of ANDV. Here, we explore potential ANDV transmission risk to humans in southern South America, based on eco-epidemiological associations among: six rodent host species, seropositive rodents, and human HPS cases.

METHODS

We used ecological niche modeling and macroecological approaches to determine potential geographic distributions and assess environmental similarity among rodents and human HPS cases.

RESULTS

Highest numbers of rodent species (five) were in Chile between 35° and 41°S latitude. Background similarity tests showed niche similarity in 14 of the 56 possible comparisons: similarity between human HPS cases and the background of all species and seropositive rodents was supported (except for Abrothrix sanborni). Of interest among the results is the likely role of O. longicaudatus, Loxodontomys micropus, Abrothrix olivaceus, and Abrothrix longipilis in HPS transmission to humans.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a role of rodent species' distributions as a risk factor for human HPS at coarse scales, and suggest that the role of the main reservoir (O. longicaudatus) may be supported by the broader rodent host community in some areas.

Geographical distribution and relative risk of Anjozorobe virus (Thailand orthohantavirus) infection in black rats (Rattus rattus) in Madagascar

Background

Hantavirus infection is a zoonotic disease that is associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and cardiopulmonary syndrome in human. Anjozorobe virus, a representative virus of Thailand orthohantavirus (THAIV), was recently discovered from rodents in Anjozorobe-Angavo forest in Madagascar. To assess the circulation of hantavirus at the national level, we carried out a survey of small terrestrial mammals from representative regions of the island and identified environmental factors associated with hantavirus infection. As we were ultimately interested in the potential for human exposure, we focused our research in the peridomestic area.

Methods

Sampling was achieved in twenty districts of Madagascar, with a rural and urban zone in each district. Animals were trapped from a range of habitats and examined for hantavirus RNA by nested RT-PCR. We also investigated the relationship between hantavirus infection probability in rats and possible risk factors by using Generalized Linear Mixed Models.

Results

Overall, 1242 specimens from seven species were collected (Rattus rattus, Rattus norvegicus, Mus musculus, Suncus murinus, Setifer setosus, Tenrec ecaudatus, Hemicentetes semispinosus). Overall, 12.4% (111/897) of Rattus rattus and 1.6% (2/125) of Mus musculus were tested positive for THAIV. Rats captured within houses were less likely to be infected than rats captured in other habitats, whilst rats from sites characterized by high precipitation and relatively low seasonality were more likely to be infected than those from other areas. Older animals were more likely to be infected, with infection probability showing a strong increase with weight.

Conclusions

We report widespread distribution of THAIV in the peridomestic rats of Madagascar, with highest prevalence for those living in humid areas. Although the potential risk of infection to human may also be widespread, our results provide a first indication of specific zone with high transmission. Gathered data will be helpful to implement policies for control and prevention of human risk infection.

Global Diversity and Distribution of Hantaviruses and Their Hosts

Rodents represent 42% of the world's mammalian biodiversity encompassing 2,277 species populating every continent (except Antarctica) and are reservoir hosts for a wide diversity of disease agents. Thus, knowing the identity, diversity, host-pathogen relationships, and geographic distribution of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens, is essential for predicting and mitigating zoonotic disease outbreaks. Hantaviruses are hosted by numerous rodent reservoirs. However, the diversity of rodents harboring hantaviruses is likely unknown because research is biased toward specific reservoir hosts and viruses. An up-to-date, systematic review covering all known rodent hosts is lacking. Herein, we document gaps in our knowledge of the diversity and distribution of rodent species that host hantaviruses. Of the currently recognized 681 cricetid, 730 murid, 61 nesomyid, and 278 sciurid species, we determined that 11.3, 2.1, 1.6, and 1.1%, respectively, have known associations with hantaviruses. The diversity of hantaviruses hosted by rodents and their distribution among host species supports a reassessment of the paradigm that each virus is associated with a single-host species. We examine these host-virus associations on a global taxonomic and geographical scale with emphasis on the rodent host diversity and distribution. Previous reviews have been centered on the viruses and not the mammalian hosts. Thus, we provide a perspective not previously addressed.

Landscape and rodent community composition are associated with risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in two cities in China, 2006-2013

BACKGROUND

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by hantaviruses. Landscape can influence the risk of hantavirus infection for humans, mainly through its effect on rodent community composition and distribution. It is important to understand how landscapes influence population dynamics for different rodent species and the subsequent effect on HFRS risk.

METHODS

To determine how rodent community composition influenced human hantavirus infection, we monitored rodent communities in the prefecture-level cities of Loudi and Shaoyang, China, from 2006 to 2013. Land use data were extracted from satellite images and rodent community diversity was analyzed in 45 trapping sites, in different environments. Potential contact matrices, determining how rodent community composition influence HFRS infection among different land use types, were estimated based on rodent community composition and environment type for geo-located HFRS cases.

RESULTS

Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus were the predominant species in Loudi and Shaoyang, respectively. The major risk of HFRS infection was concentrated in areas with cultivated land and was associated with A. agrarius, R. norvegicus, and Rattus flavipectus. In urban areas in Shaoyang, Mus musculus was related to risk of hantavirus infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Landscape features and rodent community dynamics may affect the risk of human hantavirus infection. Results of this study may be useful for the development of HFRS prevention initiatives that are customized for regions with different geographical environments.

Hantaviruses and a neglected environmental determinant

Most human pathogenic hantaviruses cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with a high rate of fatalities, such as occurs due to the genotypes causing hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome carried by the New World Sigmodontinae and Neotominae rodents. An increasing number of outbreaks and the possibility of cases spreading over international borders have led to greater interest in these viruses and the environmental determinants that facilitate their transmission. Rodents, shrews, moles and bats act as reservoir hosts of hantaviruses, and within the hantavirus transmission flow, the prevalence and distribution of infection in reservoir hosts is influenced by a range of factors. Climate change and landscape alteration affect hantavirus transmission, but the outcomes can differ among different hantaviruses and for the same virus in differentbiomes. However, it is evident that the underlying mechanisms that mediate hantavirus transmission are largely unknown, so that much work remains to be done regarding the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses. Overall, our review highlights the importance of examining interactions over several trophic levels and the underlying mechanisms (density and trait-mediated indirect effects) linking predation risk and hantavirus transmission, to develop an ecological framework to understand disease in natural, preserved and degraded systems.

Species Identity Supersedes the Dilution Effect Concerning Hantavirus Prevalence at Sites across Texas and México

Recent models suggest a relationship exists between community diversity and pathogen prevalence, the proportion of individuals in a population that are infected by a pathogen, with most inferences tied to assemblage structure. Two contrasting outcomes of this relationship have been proposed: the "dilution effect" and the "amplification effect." Small mammal assemblage structure in disturbed habitats often differs from assemblages in sylvan environments, and hantavirus prevalence is often negatively correlated with habitats containing high species diversity via dilution effect dynamics. As species richness increases, prevalence of infection often is decreased. However, anthropogenic changes to sylvan landscapes have been shown to decrease species richness and/or increase phylogenetic similarities within assemblages. Between January 2011 and January 2016, we captured and tested 2406 individual small mammals for hantavirus antibodies at 20 sites across Texas and México and compared differences in hantavirus seroprevalence, species composition, and assemblage structure between sylvan and disturbed habitats. We found 313 small mammals positive for antibodies against hantaviruses, evincing an overall prevalence of 9.7% across all sites. In total, 40 species of small mammals were identified comprising 2 taxonomic orders (Rodentia and Eulipotyphla). By sampling both habitat types concurrently, we were able to make real-world inferences into the efficacy of dilution effect theory in terms of hantavirus ecology. Our hypothesis predicting greater species richness higher in sylvan habitats compared to disturbed areas was not supported, suggesting the characteristics of assemblage structure do not adhere to current conceptions of species richness negatively influencing prevalence via a dilution effect.

A damped precipitation-driven, bottom-up model for deer mouse population abundance in the northwestern United States

Small-mammal population densities can be regulated by bottom-up (food availability) and top-down (predation) forces. In 1993, an El Niño Southern Oscillation event was followed by a cluster of human hantavirus with pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern United States. An upward trophic cascade hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for the outbreak: Increased plant productivity as a consequence of El Niño precipitations led to an unusual increase in distribution and abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus; reservoir host of Sin Nombre virus). Could such drastic events occur in mesic habitats, where plant productivity in response to climate conditions is likely to be much less dramatic? In this work, we investigate to what extent deer mouse populations follow a precipitation-driven, bottom-up model in central and western Montana and discuss important conditions for such a model to be possible. We found positive correlations between deer mouse abundance and on-the-ground measured plant productivity with a several-month lag in three of six study sites. This effect was weaker when deer mouse populations were more abundant, indicating density-dependent effects. Dispersal resulting from territoriality may be important in attenuating local density increments in spite of high food availability. In addition, there is evidence that population abundance in the study area could respond to other abiotic factors. In particular, precipitation in the form of snow may reduce deer mice survival, thus compensating the benefits of improved plant productivity. Deer mouse populations in Montana study sites follow complex dynamics determined by multiple limiting factors, leading to a damped precipitation-driven bottom-up regulation. This prevents dramatic changes in rodent abundances after sudden increments of food availability, such as those observed in other regions.

Landscape, Climate and Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Outbreaks

We performed a literature review in order to improve our understanding of how landscape and climate drivers affect HCPS outbreaks. Anthropogenic landscape changes such as forest loss, fragmentation and agricultural land uses are related with a boost in hantavirus reservoir species abundance and hantavirus prevalence in tropical areas, increasing HCPS risk. Additionally, higher precipitation, especially in arid regions, favors an increase in vegetational biomass, which augments the resources for reservoir rodents, also increasing HCPS risk. Although these relationships were observed, few studies described it so far, and the ones that did it are concentrated in few places. To guide future research on this issue, we build a conceptual model relating landscape and climate variables with HCPS outbreaks and identified research opportunities. We point out the need for studies addressing the effects of landscape configuration, temperature and the interaction between climate and landscape variables. Critical landscape thresholds are also highly relevant, once HCPS risk transmission can increase rapidly above a certain degree of landscape degradation. These studies could be relevant to implement preventive measures, creating landscapes that can mitigate disease spread risk.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

Expansion of spatial and host range ofPuumalavirus in Sweden: an increasing threat for humans?

Hantaviruses are globally distributed and cause severe human disease.Puumalahantavirus (PUUV) is the most common species in Northern Europe, and the only hantavirus confirmed to circulate in Sweden, restricted to the northern regions of the country. In this study, we aimed to further add to the natural ecology of PUUV in Sweden by investigating prevalence, and spatial and host species infection patterns. Specifically, we wanted to ascertain whether PUUV was present in the natural reservoir, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) further south than Dalälven river, in south-central Sweden, and whether PUUV can be detected in other rodent species in addition to the natural reservoir. In total, 559 animals were collected at Grimsö (59°43′N; 15°28′E), Sala (59°55′N; 16°36′E) and Bogesund (59°24′N; 18°14′E) in south-central Sweden between May 2013 and November 2014. PUUV ELISA-reactive antibodies were found both in 2013 (22/295) and in 2014 (18/264), and nine samples were confirmed as PUUV-specific by focus reduction neutralization test. Most of the PUUV-specific samples were from the natural host, the bank vole, but also from other rodent hosts, indicating viral spill-over. Finally, we showed that PUUV is present in more highly populated central Sweden.

Evolutionary ecology of virus emergence

The cross-species transmission of viruses into new host populations, termed virus emergence, is a significant issue in public health, agriculture, wildlife management, and related fields. Virus emergence requires overlap between host populations, alterations in virus genetics to permit infection of new hosts, and adaptation to novel hosts such that between-host transmission is sustainable, all of which are the purview of the fields of ecology and evolution. A firm understanding of the ecology of viruses and how they evolve is required for understanding how and why viruses emerge. In this paper, I address the evolutionary mechanisms of virus emergence and how they relate to virus ecology. I argue that, while virus acquisition of the ability to infect new hosts is not difficult, limited evolutionary trajectories to sustained virus between-host transmission and the combined effects of mutational meltdown, bottlenecking, demographic stochasticity, density dependence, and genetic erosion in ecological sinks limit most emergence events to dead-end spillover infections. Despite the relative rarity of pandemic emerging viruses, the potential of viruses to search evolutionary space and find means to spread epidemically and the consequences of pandemic viruses that do emerge necessitate sustained attention to virus research, surveillance, prophylaxis, and treatment.

DNA Microarray Platform for Detection and Surveillance of Viruses Transmitted by Small Mammals and Arthropods

Viruses transmitted by small mammals and arthropods serve as global threats to humans. Most emergent and re-emergent viral agents are transmitted by these groups; therefore, the development of high-throughput screening methods for the detection and surveillance of such viruses is of great interest. In this study, we describe a DNA microarray platform that can be used for screening all viruses transmitted by small mammals and arthropods (SMAvirusChip) with nucleotide sequences that have been deposited in the GenBank. SMAvirusChip was designed with more than 15,000 oligonucleotide probes (60-mers), including viral and control probes. Two SMAvirusChip versions were designed: SMAvirusChip v1 contains 4209 viral probes for the detection of 409 viruses, while SMAvirusChip v2 contains 4943 probes for the detection of 416 viruses. SMAvirusChip was evaluated with 20 laboratory reference-strain viruses. These viruses could be specifically detected when alone in a sample or when artificially mixed within a single sample. The sensitivity of SMAvirusChip was evaluated using 10-fold serial dilutions of dengue virus (DENV). The results showed a detection limit as low as 2.6E3 RNA copies/mL. Additionally, the sensitivity was one log10 lower (2.6E2 RNA copies/mL) than quantitative real-time RT-PCR and sufficient to detect viral genomes in clinical samples. The detection of DENV in serum samples of DENV-infected patients (n = 6) and in a whole blood sample spiked with DENV confirmed the applicability of SMAvirusChip for the detection of viruses in clinical samples. In addition, in a pool of mosquito samples spiked with DENV, the virus was also detectable. SMAvirusChip was able to specifically detect viruses in cell cultures, serum samples, total blood samples and a pool of mosquitoes, confirming that cellular RNA/DNA did not interfere with the assay. Therefore, SMAvirusChip may represent an innovative surveillance method for the rapid identification of viruses transmitted by small mammals and arthropods.

Hantavirus seropositivity in rodents in relation to habitat heterogeneity in human-shaped landscapes of Southeast Asia

To establish how the conversion of natural habitats for agricultural purposes may impact the distribution of hantaviruses in Southeast Asia, we tested how habitat structure affects hantavirus infection prevalence of common murine rodents that inhabit human-dominated landscapes in this region. For this, we used geo-referenced data of rodents analysed for hantavirus infection and land cover maps produced for the seven study sites in Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR where they were collected. Rodents were tested by serological methods that detect several hantaviruses, including pathogenic ones. Rodents with a seropositive status were more likely to be found near to agriculture on steep land, and also in environments with a high proportion of agriculture on steep land. These results suggest that in Southeast Asia, hantaviruses, which are often associated with generalist rodent species with a preference for agricultural land, may benefit from land conversion to agriculture.

Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hantavirus Rodent-Borne Infection by Oligoryzomys fulvescens in the Agua Buena Region--Panama

Background

Hotspot detection and characterization has played an increasing role in understanding the maintenance and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Identifying the specific environmental factors (or their correlates) that influence reservoir host abundance help increase understanding of how pathogens are maintained in natural systems and are crucial to identifying disease risk. However, most recent studies are performed at macro-scale and describe broad temporal patterns of population abundances. Few have been conducted at a microscale over short time periods that better capture the dynamical patterns of key populations. These finer resolution studies may better define the likelihood of local pathogen persistence. This study characterizes the landscape distribution and spatio-temporal dynamics of Oligoryzomys fulvescens (O. fulvescens), an important mammalian reservoir in Central America.

Methods

Information collected in a longitudinal study of rodent populations in the community of Agua Buena in Tonosí, Panama, between April 2006 and December 2009 was analyzed using non-spatial analyses (box plots) and explicit spatial statistical tests (correlograms, SADIE and LISA). A 90 node grid was built (raster format) to design a base map. The area between the nodes was 0.09 km² and the total study area was 6.43 km² (2.39 x 2.69 km). The temporal assessment dataset was divided into four periods for each year studied: the dry season, rainy season, and two months-long transitions between seasons (the months of April and December).

Results

There were heterogeneous patterns in the population densities and degrees of dispersion of O. fulvescens that varied across seasons and among years. The species typically was locally absent during the late transitional months of the season, and re-established locally in subsequent years. These populations re-occurred in the same area during the first three years but subsequently re-established further south in the final year of the study. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated local populations encompassed approximately 300–600 m. The borders between suitable and unsuitable habitats were sharply demarcated over short distances.

Conclusion

Oligoryzomys fulvescens showed a well-defined spatial pattern that evolved over time, and led to a pattern of changing aggregation. Thus, hot spots of abundance showed a general shifting pattern that helps explain the intermittent risk from pathogens transmitted by this species. This variation was associated with seasonality, as well as anthropogenic pressures that occurred with agricultural activities. These factors help define the characteristics of the occurrence, timing, intensity and duration of synanthropic populations affected by human populations and, consequently, possible exposure that local human populations experience.

In Panama, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is due to infection with the Choclo virus, which is transmitted by the rice rat (Oligoryzomys fulvescens). Hantavirus infection is endemic in rural, Central-West Panama, an area characterized by a very dynamic combination of subsistence and industrial agriculture. This region contains one of the highest hantavirus antibody prevalence (16–62%) in humans on the continent, but with low mortality (17%) in the affected population. People become infected in and around the household area. Evidence points to the increase in and dynamic nature of agricultural activity in this region as the primary causes of increased hantavirus infection in humans in Panama. This study was conducted on a high spatio-temporal resolution that better captures how rapidly the abundances of reservoir populations shift—altering this aspect of zoonotic spillover of pathogens. Practically, the results demonstrate an important challenge in monitoring or predicting zoonotic disease outbreaks at the level of reservoir populations. These populations are subject to fluctuations over time (both within and among years). The populations themselves are geographically restricted, even within their broader range. Suitable habitats for rodents may change but are poorly understood. Our results are valuable to understand hantavirus dynamics in Panama and the many other countries from North to South America in which hantaviruses are endemic in host populations.

Genomic and Metagenomic Approaches for Predicting Pathogen Evolution

Global climate change can alter the distribution of microbial pathogens and vectors that transmit infectious diseases, exposing humans to newly emerging or reemerging diseases. Early detection of potential pathogens and vectors in the environment can facilitate upstream interventions that limit the spread of infectious disease. Metagenomics is the analysis of DNA sequences from a population of microorganisms in a particular environment, followed by the computational reconstruction of the data to determine what organisms are present and predict their role in the environment. Defining the microbial populations associated with humans, animals, and their environment provides insight into the structure of microbial communities in any particular niche, including the abundance, diversity, and composition of the microbes and viruses present. It can also reveal the distribution of virulence genes within that niche. These data can be used to identify reservoirs of pathogens in an environment and predict environments with a high probability for evolution of new pathogens or outbreaks caused by known pathogens, thereby facilitating approaches to prevent infections of animals or humans before serious outbreaks of infectious disease.

Dynamics and drivers of hantavirus prevalence in rodent populations

Human encroachment on wildlife habitats has contributed to the emergence of several zoonoses. Pathogenic hantaviruses are hosted by rodents and cause severe diseases in the Americas and Eurasia. We reviewed several factors that potentially drive prevalence (the proportion of infected rodents) in host populations. These include demography, behavior, host density, small mammal diversity, predation, and habitat and landscape characteristics. This review is the first to include a quantitative summary of the literature investigating hantavirus prevalence in rodents. Demographic structure and density were investigated the most and predation the least. Reported effects of demographic structure and small mammal diversity were consistent, whereby reproductive males were most likely to be infected and prevalence decreased with small mammal diversity. The influences of habitat and landscape properties are often complex and indirect. The relationship between density and prevalence merits more investigation. Most hantavirus hosts are habitat generalists and their control is challenging. Incorporating all potential factors and their interactions is essential to understanding and controlling infection in host populations.

Development of reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification assays to detect Hantaan virus and Seoul virus

We developed two assays based on one-step reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) to identify Hantaan virus (HTNV) and Seoul virus (SEOV), members of the Hantavirus genus that cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Our results showed that these assays can be conducted within 30min under isothermal conditions. The detection limit for HTNV was around 10 copies per reaction, similar to detection levels for quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays. The detection limit for SEOV was 100 copies per reaction, a sensitivity that was 10-fold lower than that for qRT-PCR assays but 10-fold higher than that for RT-PCR assays. The method we developed was specific for both HTNV and SEOV without any cross-reaction with other pathogens. We conclude that RT-LAMP assays could be useful for the rapid and direct detection of HTNV and SEOV clinically, and for the epidemiological investigation of HFRS.

Environmental conditions in favour of a hantavirus outbreak in 2015 in Germany?

Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.

Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus

Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.

Landscape and regional environmental analysis of the spatial distribution of hantavirus human cases in europe

Background: In Europe, the most prevalent hantavirus, Puumala virus, is transmitted by bank voles and causes nephropathia epidemica in human. The European spatial distribution of nephropathia epidemica is investigated here for the first time with a rich set of environmental variables.

Methods: The influence of variables at the landscape and regional level is studied through multilevel logistic regression, and further information on their effects across the different European ecoregions is obtained by comparing an overall niche model (boosted regression trees) with regressions by ecoregion.

Results: The presence of nephropathia epidemica is likely in populated regions with well-connected forests, more intense vegetation activity, low soil water content, mild summers, and cold winters. In these regions, landscapes with a higher proportion of built-up areas in forest ecotones and lower minimum temperature in winter are expected to be more at risk. Climate and forest connectivity have a stronger effect at the regional level. If variables are staying at their current values, the models predict that nephropathia epidemica may know intensification but should not spread (although southern Sweden, the Norwegian coast, and the Netherlands should be kept under watch).

Conclusion: Models indicate that large-scale modeling can lead to a very high predictive power. At large scale, the effect of one variable on disease may follow three response scenarios: the effect may be the same across the entire study area, the effect can change according to the variable value, and the effect can change depending on local specificities. Each of these scenarios impacts large-scale modeling differently.

Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review

Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change.

Responses of small mammals to habitat fragmentation: epidemiological considerations for rodent-borne hantaviruses in the Americas

Rodent-borne hantaviruses are a group of zoonotic agents that cause hemorrhagic fever in humans. The transmission of hantaviruses among rodent hosts may be higher with the increase of reservoir host abundance in a given area (density-dependent transmission) and with the decrease of small mammal diversity (dilution effect phenomenon). These population and community parameters may be modified by habitat fragmentation; however, studies that focus on fragmentation and its effect on hantavirus infection risk are scarce. To further understanding of this issue, we assessed some population and community responses of rodents that may increase the risk for hantavirus transmission among wildlife hosts in the Americas. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies to assess the responses of small mammals to fragmentation of native habitats, relative to patch size. Our analyses included five countries and 14 case studies for abundance of reservoir hosts (8 species) and 15 case studies for species richness. We found that a reduction of patch area due to habitat fragmentation is associated with increased reservoir host abundances and decreased small mammal richness, which is mainly due to the loss of non-host small mammals. According to these results, habitat fragmentation in the Americas should be considered as an epidemiological risk factor for hantavirus transmission to humans. These findings are important to assess potential risk of infection when fragmentation of native habitats occurs.

Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

Epidemiology of pathogenic enterobacteria in humans, livestock, and peridomestic rodents in rural Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Among the families of enteric bacteria are globally important diarrheal agents. Despite their potential for zoonotic and environmental transmission, few studies have examined the epidemiology of these pathogens in rural systems characterized by extensive overlap among humans, domesticated and peridomestic animals. We investigated patterns of infection with Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Shigella spp., Salmonella enterica, Vibrio cholerae, and Yersinia spp. (enterocolitica, and pseudotuberculosis) in Southeastern Madagascar where the potential for the aforementioned interactions is high. In this pilot project we conducted surveys to examine behaviors potentially associated with risk of infection and if infection with specific enterobacteria species was associated with diarrheal disease.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PCR was conducted on DNA from human, livestock, and rodent fecal samples from three villages. Overall, human prevalence was highest (77%), followed by rodents (51%) and livestock (18%). Rodents were ∼2.8 times more likely than livestock to carry one of the bacteria. The incidence of individual species varied between villages, with the observation that, E. coli and Shigella spp. were consistently associated with co-infections. As an aggregate, there was a significant risk of infection linked to a water source in one village. Individually, different pathogens were associated with certain behaviors, including: those who had used medication, experienced diarrhea in the past four weeks, or do not use toilets.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Different bacteria were associated with an elevated risk of infection for various human activities or characteristics. Certain bacteria may also predispose people to co-infections. These data suggest that a high potential for transmission among these groups, either directly or via contaminated water sources. As these bacteria were most prevalent in humans, it is possible that they are maintained in humans and that transmission to other species is infrequent. Further studies are needed to understand bacterial persistence, transmission dynamics, and associated consequences in this and similar systems.

Hantavirus reservoirs: current status with an emphasis on data from Brazil

Since the recognition of hantavirus as the agent responsible for haemorrhagic fever in Eurasia in the 1970s and, 20 years later, the descovery of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the Americas, the genus Hantavirus has been continually described throughout the World in a variety of wild animals. The diversity of wild animals infected with hantaviruses has only recently come into focus as a result of expanded wildlife studies. The known reservoirs are more than 80, belonging to 51 species of rodents, 7 bats (order Chiroptera) and 20 shrews and moles (order Soricomorpha). More than 80genetically related viruses have been classified within Hantavirus genus; 25 recognized as human pathogens responsible for a large spectrum of diseases in the Old and New World. In Brazil, where the diversity of mammals and especially rodents is considered one of the largest in the world, 9 hantavirus genotypes have been identified in 12 rodent species belonging to the genus Akodon, Calomys, Holochilus, Oligoryzomys, Oxymycterus, Necromys and Rattus. Considering the increasing number of animals that have been implicated as reservoirs of different hantaviruses, the understanding of this diversity is important for evaluating the risk of distinct hantavirus species as human pathogens.

Modeling to predict cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Chile

BACKGROUND

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a life threatening disease transmitted by the rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus in Chile. Hantavirus outbreaks are typically small and geographically confined. Several studies have estimated risk based on spatial and temporal distribution of cases in relation to climate and environmental variables, but few have considered climatological modeling of HPS incidence for monitoring and forecasting purposes.

METHODOLOGY

Monthly counts of confirmed HPS cases were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health for 2001-2012. There were an estimated 667 confirmed HPS cases. The data suggested a seasonal trend, which appeared to correlate with changes in climatological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. We considered several Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models and regression models with ARIMA errors with one or a combination of these climate variables as covariates. We adopted an information-theoretic approach to model ranking and selection. Data from 2001-2009 were used in fitting and data from January 2010 to December 2012 were used for one-step-ahead predictions.

RESULTS

We focused on six models. In a baseline model, future HPS cases were forecasted from previous incidence; the other models included climate variables as covariates. The baseline model had a Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) of 444.98, and the top ranked model, which included precipitation, had an AICc of 437.62. Although the AICc of the top ranked model only provided a 1.65% improvement to the baseline AICc, the empirical support was 39 times stronger relative to the baseline model.

CONCLUSIONS

Instead of choosing a single model, we present a set of candidate models that can be used in modeling and forecasting confirmed HPS cases in Chile. The models can be improved by using data at the regional level and easily extended to other countries with seasonal incidence of HPS.

Effects of environmental change on zoonotic disease risk: an ecological primer

Impacts of environmental changes on zoonotic disease risk are the subject of speculation, but lack a coherent framework for understanding environmental drivers of pathogen transmission from animal hosts to humans. We review how environmental factors affect the distributions of zoonotic agents and their transmission to humans, exploring the roles they play in zoonotic systems. We demonstrate the importance of capturing the distributional ecology of any species involved in pathogen transmission, defining the environmental conditions required, and the projection of that niche onto geography. We further review how environmental changes may alter the dispersal behaviour of populations of any component of zoonotic disease systems. Such changes can modify relative importance of different host species for pathogens, modifying contact rates with humans.

Regional variations and time trends of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Brazil

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a zoonosis and a public health concern in the Americas due to its high fatality rate. Since the first cases were identified in USA in 1993, HPS has been observed over a wide area of the American continents. Over 1600 HPS cases have been confirmed in Brazil since 1993, and different genotypes of hantavirus have been identified in several biomes in this country of continental dimensions. We performed a retrospective study of data from 2001 to 2011 that encompassed all notified cases of HPS in the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) of Brazil to determine the regional differences and temporal trends of the disease. During the study period, 1486 cases were reported, and analyses of the temporal trends of the disease revealed that the number of cases in Brazil increased over this period (P < 0·01). The frequency distributions of the cases stratified by region revealed different patterns of seasonality; however, these patterns were not statistically significant with the exception of the South region (P < 0·05). We found regional differences in the occurrence of the disease throughout the year and a trend towards an increasing number of cases. These findings reinforce the necessity of adjusting surveillance tools and control policies to respond effectively to this public health problem.

Serologic survey of hantavirus in a rural population from the northern State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Hantavirus is a genus of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses included in the family Bunyaviridae. Hantaviruses are rodent-borne zoonoses that, in the last 18 years, became an emergent public health problem in the Americas, causing a severe cardiopulmonary syndrome. This disease has no specific treatment and has a high case fatality. The transmission of hantavirus to man occurs by inhaling aerosols of rodent excreta. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of antibodies to hantavirus in the population of the rural settlement of Tupã in the county of Marcelândia, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

METHODS

The participants of the serologic survey were visited at their homes and selected randomly among the settlement population. Blood samples of the participants were collected by venopuncture. The serum samples were tested by an IgG-ELISA using an N recombinant protein of Araraquara hantavirus as antigen, using the protocol previously established by Figueiredo et al.

RESULTS

IgG antibodies to hantavirus were detected in 7 (13%) of the 54 participants. The positivity was higher among men. It was observed that there was an association of seropositivity to hantavirus within the participants born in the south of Brazil.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that, in this rural area, everyone is exposed to the same risk of becoming infected with hantavirus, and, therefore, there is a need to intensify surveillance activities and education of the local people to prevent this viral infection.