Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of African Swine Fever Virus into the European Union by Legal Import of Live Pigs

Pathogenicity and virulence of African swine fever virus

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating disease with a high impact on the pork industry worldwide. ASF virus (ASFV) is a very complex pathogen, the sole member of the family Asfaviridae, which induces a state of immune suppression in the host through infection of myeloid cells and apoptosis of lymphocytes. Moreover, haemorrhages are the other main pathogenic effect of ASFV infection in pigs, related to the infection of endothelial cells, as well as the activation and structural changes of this cell population by proinflammatory cytokine upregulation within bystander monocytes and macrophages. There are still many gaps in the knowledge of the role of proteins produced by the ASFV, which is related to the difficulty in producing a safe and effective vaccine to combat the disease, although few candidates have been approved for use in Southeast Asia in the past couple of years.

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

African swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10-4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Ten Years of African Swine Fever in Ukraine: An Endemic Form of the Disease in the Wild Boar Population as a Threat to Domestic Pig Production

(1) Background: African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Ukraine for more than ten years (2012-2022). The purpose of our study was to perform a retrospective analysis of the spread of ASF to assess the role of wild boar in the epizootic expansion in Ukraine. (2) Methods: Statistical materials were collected and the epizootic situation of ASF from 2012 to 2022 was examined. The potential sources of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) and transmission factors were analysed. The main factors exerting negative impacts on domestic pig production were also analysed. (3) Results: Consequently, from the results of the retrospective analysis of ASF outbreaks in Ukraine, the probability ratio of ASF outbreaks in the wild boar and domestic pig populations was determined. The data show a direct relationship between ASF outbreaks among wild boar and domestic pigs with the observed decay of wild boar outbreaks across the entire territory of Ukraine. At the same time, an increase in the number of wild boars has been observed in the Mykolaiv region, with a parallel spillover of outbreaks in domestic pigs. (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological situation observed for ASF in the wild boar population may suggest an endemic form of the disease. This may further complicate eradication programs and the protection of domestic pig farms from ASF outbreaks. An additional and major reason to control the ASF epizootic is the continuing military Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to prioritize emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases for risk management

Increasing globalization and international trade contribute to rapid expansion of animal and human diseases. Hence, preparedness is warranted to prevent outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases or detect outbreaks in an early stage. We developed a rapid risk assessment tool (RRAT) to inform risk managers on the incursion risk of multiple livestock diseases, about the main sources for incursion and the change of risk over time. RRAT was built as a relational database to link data on disease outbreaks worldwide, on introduction routes and on disease-specific parameters. The tool was parameterized to assess the incursion risk of 10 livestock diseases for the Netherlands by three introduction routes: legal trade in live animals, legal trade of animal products, and animal products illegally carried by air travelers. RRAT calculates a semi-quantitative risk score for the incursion risk of each disease, the results of which allow for prioritization. Results based on the years 2016-2018 indicated that the legal introduction routes had the highest incursion risk for bovine tuberculosis, whereas the illegal route posed the highest risk for classical swine fever. The overall incursion risk via the illegal route was lower than via the legal routes. The incursion risk of African swine fever increased over the period considered, whereas the risk of equine infectious anemia decreased. The variation in the incursion risk over time illustrates the need to update the risk estimates on a regular basis. RRAT has been designed such that the risk assessment can be automatically updated when new data becomes available. For diseases with high-risk scores, model results can be analyzed in more detail to see which countries and trade flows contribute most to the risk, the results of which can be used to design risk-based surveillance. RRAT thus provides a multitude of information to evaluate the incursion risk of livestock diseases at different levels of detail. To give risk managers access to all results of RRAT, an online visualization tool was built.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10⁻⁴), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Models to assess the risk of introduction of selected animal viral diseases through the importation of live animals as a key part of risk analysis

Introduction of an animal viral disease, especially a notifiable disease, into an importing country or region free from the disease may lead to serious epidemiological consequences and economic losses. Trade in live animals is historically considered one of the most important risk pathways. To estimate the magnitude of such risk, the likelihood of a virus’ entry into a country and the consequences of this event should be jointly evaluated. Depending on data availability, the urgency of the problem and the detail level of the objectives, a risk assessment may be conducted in a qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative way. The purpose of this review was firstly to provide a brief description of each step of the risk analysis process, with particular emphasis on the risk assessment component, and subsequently to supply examples of different approaches to the assessment of the risk of the introduction of selected animal viral diseases. Based on the reviewed models, the overall likelihood of introduction of particular diseases was generally estimated as low. The output risk value was strongly dependent on the duration of the silent phase of the epidemic in the country of origin. Other parameters with some bearing upon the risk derived from the epidemiological situation in the country of origin and the biosecurity or mitigation measures implemented in the country of destination. The investigated models are universal tools for conducting assessment of the risk of introduction of various animal diseases to any country. Their application may lead to timely implementation of appropriate measures for the prevention of the spread of a disease to another country or region.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

Risk of Introduction of Classical Swine Fever Into the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Classical swine fever (CSF) is considered one of the most important diseases of swine because of the far-reaching economic impact the disease causes to affected countries and regions. The state of Mato Grosso (MT) is part of Brazil's CSF-free zone. CSF status is uncertain in some of MT's neighboring States and countries, which has resulted in the perception that MT is at high risk for the disease. However, the risk for CSF introduction into MT has not been previously assessed. Here, we estimated that the risk for CSF introduction into the MT is highly heterogeneous. The risk associated with shipment of commercial pigs was concentrated in specific municipalities with intense commercial pig production, whereas the risk associated with movement of wild boars was clustered in certain municipalities located close to the state's borders, mostly in northern and southwestern MT. Considering the two pathways of possible introduction assessed here, these results demonstrate the importance of using alternative strategies for surveillance that target different routes and account for different likelihoods of introduction. These results will help to design, implement, and monitor surveillance activities for sustaining the CSF-free status of MT at times when Brazil plans to expand the recognition of disease-free status for other regions in the country.

Semi-quantitative risk assessment by expert elicitation of potential introduction routes of African swine fever from wild reservoir to domestic pig industry and subsequent spread during the Belgian outbreak (2018-2019)

Since the introduction in Georgia in 2007 of an African swine fever (ASF) genotype 2 virus strain, the virus has rapidly spread to both Western European and Asian countries. It now constitutes a major threat for the global swine industry. The ongoing European transmission cycle has been related to the 'wild boar habitat' with closed transmission events between wild boar populations and incidental spillovers to commercial and non-commercial (backyard) pig holdings. During the epidemic in Belgium, only wild boar were infected and although the introduction route has not yet been elucidated, the 'human factor' is highly suspected. While ASF was successfully contained in a small region in the Southern part of Belgium without affecting domestic pigs, the risk of spillover at the wild/domestic interface remains poorly assessed. In this study, we used a semi-quantitative method, involving national and international experts, to assess the risk associated with different transmission routes for ASF introduction from wild boar to domestic pig holdings and subsequent dissemination between holdings in the Belgian epidemiological context. Qualitative responses obtained by our questionnaire were numerically transformed and statistically processed to provide a semi-quantitative assessment of the occurrence of the hazard and a ranking of all transmission routes. 'Farmer', 'bedding material', 'veterinarian' and 'professionals from the pig sector' were considered as the most important transmission routes for ASF introduction from the wild reservoir to pig holdings. 'Animal movements', 'farmer', 'veterinarian', 'iatrogenic', 'animal transport truck' and 'animal care equipment' were considered as the most important transmission routes posing a risk of ASF spread between pig holdings. Combined with specific biosecurity checks in the holdings, this assessment helps in prioritizing risk mitigation measures against ASF introduction and further spread in the domestic pig industry, particularly while the ASF situation in Western Europe is worsening.

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza H5 and H7 strains into Poland via legal import of live poultry

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland (P_LPAI) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys contribute most to P_LPAI, whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI.

A Review of Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Incursion in Pig Farming within the European Union Scenario

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease of pigs and wild boars that could lead to serious economic losses for the entire European pork industry. As no effective treatment or vaccination is available, disease prevention and control rely on strictly enforced biosecurity measures tailored to the specific risk factors of ASF introduction within domestic pig populations. Here, we present a review addressing the risk factors associated with different European pig farming systems in the context of the actual epidemiological scenario. A list of keywords was combined into a Boolean query, “African swine fever” AND (“Risk factors” OR “Transmission” OR “Spread” OR “Pig farming” OR “Pigs” OR “Wild boars”); was run on 4 databases; and resulted in 52 documents of interest being reviewed. Based on our review, each farming system has its own peculiar risk factors: commercial farms, where best practices are already in place, may suffer from unintentional breaches in biosecurity, while backyard and outdoor farms may suffer from poor ASF awareness, sociocultural factors, and contact with wild boars. In the literature selected for our review, human-related activities and behaviours are presented as the main risks, but we also stress the need to implement biosecurity measures also tailored to risks factors that are specific for the different pig farming practices in the European Union (EU).

Risks of introduction and economic consequences associated with African swine fever, classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease: A review of the literature

African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are considered to be three of the most detrimental animal diseases and are currently foreign to the U.S. Emerging and re-emerging pathogens can have tremendous impacts in terms of livestock morbidity and mortality events, production losses, forced trade restrictions, and costs associated with treatment and control. The United States is the world's top producer of beef for domestic and export use and the world's third-largest producer and consumer of pork and pork products; it has also recently been either the world's largest or second largest exporter of pork and pork products. Understanding the routes of introduction into the United States and the potential economic impact of each pathogen are crucial to (a) allocate resources to prevent routes of introduction that are believed to be more probable, (b) evaluate cost and efficacy of control methods and (c) ensure that protections are enacted to minimize impact to the most vulnerable industries. With two scoping literature reviews, pulled from global data, this study assesses the risk posed by each disease in the event of a viral introduction into the United States and illustrates what is known about the economic costs and losses associated with an outbreak.

Multifaceted Immune Responses to African Swine Fever Virus: Implications for Vaccine Development

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, often fatal viral disease caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), leading to high fever, severe hemorrhages with high lethality in domestic pigs and wild boar. In 2007, ASF was reintroduced into Europe. Since then, ASF has spread to many European and Asian countries and now becomes a major concern to the swine industry worldwide. There have been various vaccine attempts, but no commercial ASF vaccines are available so far. A key hurdle in developing a safe and efficacious ASF vaccine is the limited understanding of innate and adaptive immune responses elicited by ASFV infection. Though several promising vaccine candidates have been described, more key scientific challenges remain unsolved. Here, we provide an overview of the current knowledge in innate and adaptive immune responses elicited by ASFV infection and different kinds of vaccine candidates. Additionally, the applications and prospects of vaccine candidates are discussed. Finally, we highlight the implications of these mechanisms for rational design of ASF vaccines.

Quantitative risk assessment of the African swine fever introduction into the Republic of Korea via legal import of live pigs and pig products

There are several routes of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into a country. Among the possible routes of entry, quarantine policies determine the possibility of introduction by legal import of live pigs and pig products. This study aimed at assessing the probability of ASF introduction through legal import of live pigs and pig products during the high-risk period (HRP) using a quantitative stochastic approach during 2009-2018. The result indicates that the mean annual probability of ASF introduction by legal import of live pig was 1.58 × 10^-7 (1.52~1.67 × 10^-7 95% CI). The mean annual probability by legal import of pig products was 1.59 × 10^-10 (1.55~1.64 × 10^-10 95% CI), of which Poland assumed 87.9% of the mean annual risk. The current import quarantine policy of Korean government may be enough to block the release of the virus via legal import of live pigs and pig products, and it should be continually enforced. This result can help to elucidate source of infection and to minimize the catastrophic consequences of the potential ASF reintroduction into South Korea by designing risk mitigation strategies such as risk-based selection of routes to be assessed and prevented and decreased exposure possibility by increased control of food waste and swill feeding practices.

Transmission of African swine fever in China Through Legal Trade of Live Pigs

The African swine fever virus (ASFV) was first reported in China on 3 August 2018, which subsequently triggered a severe epidemic that spreads across the country. While the ASFV has numerous underlying transmission paths in China, this study primarily assessed the possibility of ASFV transmission through the legal animal husbandry trade. The reason for this is that, historically, this transmission path is one of the critical contacts for exotic diseases to access disease-free areas. This study employed a stochastic model to assess the monthly possibility for ASFV entering respective Chinese provinces. The results of this model suggest that the risk of ASFV transmission though the legal live-pig trade is highest in the southeastern regions of China. Vulnerable regions centred around Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, especially throughout the months of January and December. Liaoning province contributes most to transmission risk with 46.7% of the overall annual risk. This study quantified the risk of ASFV spread in China related to the legal trade of pigs and provides detailed and new information for the development of ASFV monitoring and control plans in China and other countries who also face the challenge of ASFV.

Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Exposure to Sus scrofa in Japan Via Pork Products Brought in Air Passengers' Luggage

In recent years, African swine fever (ASF) has become prevalent in many areas, including Asia. The repeated detection of the ASF virus (ASFV) genome in pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) was also reported from Japanese airports. In the present study, the risk of ASFV exposure to susceptible hosts in Japan via three different pathways was assessed. Two quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were built to estimate the annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs, which could be attributed to foreign job trainees or foreign tourists. A semi-quantitative stochastic model was built to assess the risk of ASFV exposure to wild boar caused by foreign tourists. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs via PPAP carried by foreign job trainees was 0.169 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.000–0.600], whereas that by foreign tourists was 0.050 [95% CI: 0.000–0.214], corresponding to approximately one introduction every 5.9 and 20 years, respectively. The risk of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs was dispersed over the country, whereas that of wild boar was generally higher in the western part of Japan, indicating that the characteristics of the potential ASF risk in each prefecture were varied.

Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusions on the ASF risk were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. Hence, it was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of their results.

The Risk of Infection by African Swine Fever Virus in European Swine Through Boar Movement and Legal Trade of Pigs and Pig Meat

African swine fever (ASF) is currently spreading westwards throughout Europe and eastwards into China, with cases occurring in both wild boar and domestic pigs. A generic risk assessment framework is used to determine the probability of first infection with ASF virus (ASFV) at a fine spatial scale across European Union Member States. The framework aims to assist risk managers across Europe with their ASF surveillance and intervention activities. Performing the risk assessment at a fine spatial scale allows for hot-spot surveillance, which can aid risk managers by directing surveillance or intervention resources at those areas or pathways deemed most at risk, and hence enables prioritization of limited resources. We use 2018 cases of ASF to estimate prevalence of the disease in both wild boar and pig populations and compute the risk of initial infection for 2019 at a 100 km2 cell resolution via three potential pathways: legal trade in live pigs, natural movement of wild boar, and legal trade in pig meat products. We consider the number of pigs, boar and amount of pig meat entering our area of interest, the prevalence of the disease in the origin country, the probability of exposure of susceptible pigs or boar in the area of interest to introduced infected pigs, boar, or meat from an infected pig, and the probability of transmission to susceptible animals. We provide maps across Europe indicating regions at highest risk of initial infection. Results indicate that the risk of ASF in 2019 was predominantly focused on those regions which already had numerous cases in 2018 (Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, and Latvia). The riskiest pathway for ASFV transmission to pigs was the movement of wild boar for Eastern European countries and legal trade of pigs for Western European countries. New infections are more likely to occur in wild boar rather than pigs, for both the pig meat and wild boar movement pathways. Our results provide an opportunity to focus surveillance activities and thus increase our ability to detect ASF introductions earlier, a necessary requirement if we are to successfully control the spread of this devastating disease for the pig industry.

Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever virus introduction to Japan via pork products brought in air passengers' luggage

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) has reached pandemic levels over the last decade, and outbreaks of this disease in China, Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia in 2018 and 2019 could accelerate its transmission to neighbouring Asian territories. Thus, the risk that the ASF virus (ASFV) will be introduced to disease-free territories increases each year. Since Japan is an island nation, the most likely way in which ASFV would be introduced is via pork products brought in air passengers' luggage (PPAP). Therefore, in the present study, we assessed the risk of ASFV introduction to Japan via PPAP. For the purposes of this analysis, we considered 214 international commercial flights travelling from 47 origin territories to 31 destination airports as potential routes of ASFV introduction via PPAP. The risk was estimated quantitatively through a stochastic model that considered the volume of air passengers' luggage, the amount of confiscated pork products that were carried in air passengers' luggage and the disease status of the origin territory. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV introduction to Japan via PPAP was found to be 0.941 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.661-1.000], which approximately corresponds to one introduction every 1.06 years. At the origin territory level, Mongolia was led as the highest risk territory, with a risk of 0.864 (95% CI, 0.434-1.000), followed by China (0.697; 0.223-0.999), Vietnam (0.662; 0.196-0.998) and the Russian Federation (0.136; 0.018-0.401). At the destination airport level, Narita International Airport had the highest risk (0.905; 0.537-1.000), followed by Kansai International Airport (0.496; 0.109-0.961), Tokyo International Airport (0.389; 0.072-0.879) and Chubu Centrair International Airport (0.338; 0.058-0.816). This information will help improve risk management activities and monitoring systems to prevent the introduction of ASFV to Japan.

Threat to the French Swine Industry of African Swine Fever: Surveillance, Spread, and Control Perspectives

African swine fever (ASF) has one of the highest case-fatality rates among pig diseases. Europe was considered ASF-free for about two decades until 2007, when the virus was introduced into Georgia. Since then, it has been identified throughout Eastern Europe, and reached Belgium in late 2018, increasing the risk of ASF being introduced into neighboring countries-namely Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and France. French authorities have therefore reinforced surveillance measures to improve the probability of detecting ASF rapidly if it emerges in France. Predictive modeling may help to anticipate the extent of virus spread and evaluate the efficiency of these surveillance measures. A previously published and well-documented model that simulates ASF virus spread was therefore tailored to realistically represent the French situation in terms of the geographic distribution of swine production sites and the commercial trade between them on the one hand, and the implementation of surveillance protocols on the other. The outcomes confirmed the moderate spread of ASF through the swine trade network, a situation that had been previously highlighted for the case of Denmark. However, the diversity of the French pig production landscape has revealed a huge potential for the geographic dispersal of the virus, especially should the index case occur in a low-density area, with a median source-to-case distance reaching 300 km. Free-range herds, which are more likely to have interactions with wild boars, were also identified as potential entrance gate for the virus. Transmissions from conventional herds were quasi-exclusively due to swine movement on the commercial network, representing 99% of transmission events. In contrast, 81% of transmission events occurred in the neighborhood of the index herd when the virus was introduced in free-range herds. The current surveillance measures were found relatively efficient for detecting the virus in large herds, leading to detection rates of 94%. However, infections on smaller production sites-which often have free-range herds-were more difficult to detect and would require screening protocols specifically targeting these smaller herds.

Risk analysis of African swine fever in Poland based on spatio-temporal pattern and Latin hypercube sampling, 2014-2017

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs. ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry, due to the lack of vaccines and treatments. In this study, the Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was applied to analyze the distribution, dispersion of the epidemic and clustering of ASF in Poland.

Results

The results show that the center of the epidemic moved gradually towards the southwest, and the distribution of the epidemic changed from south-north to east-west. Through space-time scan statistical analysis, the 3 clusters major of wild boar cases involve longer time spans and larger radii, while the other five with higher relative risks involved in domestic pigs. And then, a quantitative model was constructed to analyse the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) from Poland by the legal export of pork and pork products. The Latin hypercube sampling results show that the probability is relatively low (the average value is 4.577 × 10^− 7).

Conclusions

All the identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic and the risk analysis model would give a further understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and help to design corresponding measures to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASFV introduction.

Transboundary spread of pig diseases: the role of international trade and travel

As globalization increases the interconnectedness between nations, economies, and industries, the introduction of diseases will continue to remain a prominent threat to the livestock sector and the trade of animals and animal products, as well as the livelihoods of farmers, food security and public health. The global pig sector, with its size and dichotomy between production type and biosecurity level, is particularly vulnerable to the transmission of transboundary animal diseases such as African and classical swine fever, foot and mouth disease, or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. All of the above pose a constant threat to swine health, mainly as a result of both formal and informal international trade.Inspired in the risk assessment methodology, this paper classifies and provides an overview of the different pig disease introduction and exposure pathways, illustrated with abundant examples. Introduction pathways are classified as formal international trade (by product), informal international trade (by product), and spread through fomites. Formal trade of pigs and pork products is regulated by legislation and measures protecting animal populations from exotic diseases. Much more difficult to control is the transboundary swine disease transmission originating through informal trade, which entails illegal smuggling, but also the informal cross-border transfer of animals and products for personal use or within informal market chains. Meat products are most commonly mentioned, although fomites have also played a role in some cases, with live pigs, being more difficult to smuggle playing a role less frequently. The main exposure pathways are also described with the oral route playing a prominent role.Risk assessments can aid in the identification of pathways of pathogen introduction and exposure. However, quantitative information on informal disease introduction pathways remains very scarce and often incomplete, making it difficult to estimate the actual magnitudes of risks. Nevertheless, this knowledge is deemed essential to set up risk based awareness, prevention and surveillance programs that correspond to reality.

Relevant Measures to Prevent the Spread of African Swine Fever in the European Union Domestic Pig Sector

During the past decade, African swine fever (ASF) has spread from the Caucasus region to eastern European Union countries affecting domestic pig and wild boar populations. In order to avert ASF spread, mitigation measures targeting both populations have been established. However, despite these efforts, ASF has been reported in thirteen different countries (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Czech Republic, and Romania). In the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment to ASF, introduction and spread of ASF onto domestic pig farms can only be prevented by strict compliance to control measures. This study systematically reviewed available measures to prevent the spread of ASF in the EU domestic pig sector distinguishing between commercial, non-commercial, and outdoor farms. The search was performed in PubMed and using a common browser. A total of 52 documents were selected for the final review process, which included scientific articles, reports, EU documents and official recommendations, among others. From this literature review, 37 measures were identified as preventive measures for the introduction and spread of ASF. Subsequently, these measures were assessed by ASF experts for their relevance in the mitigation of ASF spread on the three mentioned types of farms. All experts agreed that some of the important preventive measures for all three types of farms were: the identification of animals and farm records; strict enforcement of the ban on swill feeding; and containment of pigs, so as to not allow direct or indirect pig–pig and/or pig–wild boar contacts. Other important preventive measures for all farms were education of farmers, workers, and operators; no contact between farmers and farm staff and external pigs; appropriate removal of carcasses, slaughter residues, and food waste; proper disposal of manure and dead animals, and abstaining from hunting activities during the previous 48 h (allowing a 48 h interval between hunting and being in contact with domestic pigs). Finally, all experts identified that the important preventive measures for non-commercial and outdoor farms is to improve access of those farms to veterinarians and health services.

Evaluation of biological and socio-economic factors related to persistence of African swine fever in Sardinia

Despite the implementation of several eradication programmes, African swine fever (ASF), a viral disease in pigs caused by a DNA virus (ASFV), has been present in Sardinia (Italy) since 1978. Several studies have been carried out on the epidemiology of ASF in Sardinia, aimed at attaining a better understanding of the role of the risk factors related to ASFV persistence, but those studies did not address the social aspects involved. This work sought to bridge this gap, identifying the main social risk factors associated with ASF persistence. With this aim, this study takes into account not only the known "biological" risk factors identified in previous studies, but also the direct correlation between ASF persistence and well-known socio-economic aspects. The demographic characteristics, the Material Deprivation Index (IDM) and the non-compliance with the rules on ASF controls, including the traditional method of keeping free-range pigs has been evaluated. To assess the weight of each risk factor, data about pig farms, wild boar and social factors in Sardinia, were analysed using the Negative Binomial Regression Model. The main outcome was the number of domestic pig outbreaks occurring in Sardinian during 2011-2016. The effect in terms of the odds ratio (OR) was calculated to each factor included. The biological risk factors identified covered the number of animals (OR = 3.33, p < .0001, by 100 animals) and farms (OR = 1.07, p = .006, by 10 farms), the animal movements (OR = 1.64, p = .001, by 10 movements), the presence of illegal pigs (OR = 6.87, p < .0001) and the ASFV prevalence in wild boars (OR = 1.30, p = .001). Among the socio-economic factors, the compliance with control measures (OR = 0.90, p < .0001), the human population increasing by 1000 people (OR = 0.89, p < .0001), the growing age of the farmers (OR = 0.66, p = .025, by 5 years) and non-relationships with other farms (OR = 0.85, p < .001), decreased the ASF risk. The deprived condition (i.e. cultural and material deprivation, lack of resources and overcrowding index) increases the risk of about four times, as the low educational level (OR = 3.97, p = .002). Having highlighted the important role of social conditions, this risk definition allows understanding the Sardinian situation and may be useful to decision-makers to draft specific control strategies against this disease in the island, which should take into account local risk factors.

African Swine Fever Virus Biology and Vaccine Approaches

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute and often fatal disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boar, with severe economic consequences for affected countries. ASF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and the island of Sardinia, Italy. Since 2007, the virus emerged in the republic of Georgia, and since then spread throughout the Caucasus region and Russia. Outbreaks have also been reported in Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Moldova, Czech Republic, and Poland, threatening neighboring West European countries. The causative agent, the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a large, enveloped, double-stranded DNA virus that enters the cell by macropinocytosis and a clathrin-dependent mechanism. African Swine Fever Virus is able to interfere with various cellular signaling pathways resulting in immunomodulation, thus making the development of an efficacious vaccine very challenging. Inactivated preparations of African Swine Fever Virus do not confer protection, and the role of antibodies in protection remains unclear. The use of live-attenuated vaccines, although rendering suitable levels of protection, presents difficulties due to safety and side effects in the vaccinated animals. Several African Swine Fever Virus proteins have been reported to induce neutralizing antibodies in immunized pigs, and vaccination strategies based on DNA vaccines and recombinant proteins have also been explored, however, without being very successful. The complexity of the virus particle and the ability of the virus to modulate host immune responses are most likely the reason for this failure. Furthermore, no permanent cell lines able to sustain productive virus infection by both virulent and naturally attenuated African Swine Fever Virus strains exist so far, thus impairing basic research and the commercial production of attenuated vaccine candidates.

U.K. Foot and Mouth Disease: A Systemic Risk Assessment of Existing Controls

This article details a systemic analysis of the controls in place and possible interventions available to further reduce the risk of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom. Using a research-based network analysis tool, we identify vulnerabilities within the multibarrier control system and their corresponding critical control points (CCPs). CCPs represent opportunities for active intervention that produce the greatest improvement to United Kingdom's resilience to future FMD outbreaks. Using an adapted 'features, events, and processes' (FEPs) methodology and network analysis, our results suggest that movements of animals and goods associated with legal activities significantly influence the system's behavior due to their higher frequency and ability to combine and create scenarios of exposure similar in origin to the U.K. FMD outbreaks of 1967/8 and 2001. The systemic risk assessment highlights areas outside of disease control that are relevant to disease spread. Further, it proves to be a powerful tool for demonstrating the need for implementing disease controls that have not previously been part of the system.

Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US.

Virulent strain of African swine fever virus eclipses its attenuated derivative after challenge

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most devastating diseases affecting the swine industry worldwide. No effective vaccine is currently available for disease prevention and control. Although live attenuated vaccines (LAV) have demonstrated great potential for immunizing against homologous strains of African swine fever virus (ASFV), adverse reactions from LAV remain a concern. Here, by using a homologous ASFV Congo strain system, we show passage-attenuated Congo LAV to induce an efficient protective immune response against challenge with the virulent parental Congo strain. Notably, only the parental challenge Congo strain was identified in blood and organs of recovered pigs through B602L gene PCR, long-range PCR, nucleotide sequencing and virus isolation. Thus, despite the great protective potential of homologous attenuated ASFV strain, the challenge Congo strain can persist for weeks in recovered pigs and a recrudescence of virulent virus at late time post-challenge may occur.

Exploring pig trade patterns to inform the design of risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies

An understanding of the patterns of animal contact networks provides essential information for the design of risk-based animal disease surveillance and control strategies. This study characterises pig movements throughout England and Wales between 2009 and 2013 with a view to characterising spatial and temporal patterns, network topology and trade communities. Data were extracted from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)'s RADAR (Rapid Analysis and Detection of Animal-related Risks) database, and analysed using descriptive and network approaches. A total of 61,937,855 pigs were moved through 872,493 movements of batches in England and Wales during the 5-year study period. Results show that the network exhibited scale-free and small-world topologies, indicating the potential for diseases to quickly spread within the pig industry. The findings also provide suggestions for how risk-based surveillance strategies could be optimised in the country by taking account of highly connected holdings, geographical regions and time periods with the greatest number of movements and pigs moved, as these are likely to be at higher risk for disease introduction. This study is also the first attempt to identify trade communities in the country, information which could be used to facilitate the pig trade and maintain disease-free status across the country in the event of an outbreak.

Update on the Risk of Introduction of African Swine Fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries

Despite efforts to prevent the appearance and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union, several Member States are now affected (Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia). Disease appearance in 2014 was associated with multiple entrances linked to wild boar movement from endemic areas (EFSA Journal, 8, 2015, 1556), but the risk of new introductions remains high (Gallardo et al., Porcine Health Management, 1, and 21) as ASF continues to be active in endemic countries (Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine). Since 2014, the number of ASF notifications has increased substantially, particularly in wild boar (WB), in parallel with slow but constant geographical advance of the disease. This situation suggests a real risk of further disease spread into other Member States, posing a great threat to pig production in the EU. Following the principles of the risk-based veterinary surveillance, this article applies a methodology developed by De la Torre et al. (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 62, and 272) to assess the relative risk of new introductions of ASF by natural movements of WB according to the current epidemiological situation. This update incorporates the most recent available data and an improved version of the most important risk estimator: an optimized cartographic tool of WB distribution to analyse wild boar suitable habitat. The highest relative risk values were estimated for Slovakia (5) and Romania (5), followed by Finland (4), Czech Republic (3) and Germany (3). Relative risk for Romania and Finland is associated mainly with disease entrance from endemic areas such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where the disease is currently spreading; relative risk for Germany and Czech Republic is associated mainly with the potential progress of the disease through the EU, and relative risk for Slovakia is associated with both pathways. WB habitat is the most important risk estimator, whereas WB density is the least significant, suggesting that WB presence is more relevant than density. These results can provide actionable advice for dealing with risk. They can be directly used to inform risk-based national strategies and identify countries that may need to pay greater attention to surveillance or conduct additional evaluations at the subnational level.

Transmission of foot and mouth disease at the wildlife/livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa: Can the risk be mitigated?

In Southern Africa, the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the natural reservoir of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Contacts between this species and cattle are responsible for most of the FMD outbreaks in cattle at the edge of protected areas, which generate huge economic losses. During the late 1980's and 90's, the erection of veterinary cordon fences and the regular vaccination of cattle exposed to buffalo contact at the interface of the Kruger National Park (KNP), proved to be efficient to control and prevent FMD outbreaks in South Africa. However, since 2000, the efficiency of those measures has deteriorated, resulting in an increased rate of FMD outbreaks in cattle outside KNP, currently occurring more than once a year. Based on retrospective ecological and epidemiological data, we developed a stochastic quantitative model to assess the annual risk of FMD virus (FMDV) transmission from buffalo to cattle herds present at the KNP interface. The model suggests that good immunization of approximately 75% of the cattle population combined with a reduction of buffalo/cattle contacts is an efficient combination to reduce FMDV transmission to one infective event every 5.5 years, emulating the epidemiological situation observed at the end of the 20th century, before current failure of control measures. The model also indicates that an increasing number of buffalo present in the KNP and crossing its boundaries, combined with a reduction in the vaccination coverage of cattle herds at the interface, increases 3-fold the risk of transmission (one infective event per year).The model proposed makes biological sense and provides a good representation of current knowledge of FMD ecology and epidemiology in Southern Africa which can be used to discuss with stakeholders on different management options to control FMD at the wildlife livestock interface and updated if new information becomes available. It also suggests that the control of FMD at the KNP interface is becoming increasingly challenging and will probably require alternative approaches to control this disease and its economic impact.

Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations

In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surveillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66). The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40) were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential application of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases.

Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R₀) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R₀ is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6–2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

The Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Risk to Belgium Early 2014, using the Quick and Semiquantitative Pandora Screening Protocol

A risk assessment was organized during the early EU ASF outbreaks of early 2014 (February-April) and performed in cooperation with 15 Belgian and European experts on ASFV and its epidemiology in pigs/wild boar. African swine fever (ASF) is considered as one of the most dangerous infectious pig diseases, causing many outbreaks. Since the end of 2013 - early 2014, several outbreaks within the European Union (Lithuania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia) were reported to OIE, which prompted several risk assessments by (inter)national bodies and scientists. In this study, the open source, semiquantitative Pandora risk assessment tool was used for a quick overall screening of the risk posed by ASF to Belgium early 2014. A set of integrated risk scores was calculated within the Pandora framework. Experts scored the questions and uncertainty levels in the Pandora modules individually, after which the calculations were performed and averaged scores were used within pre-defined risk scales to define and visualize the ASF risk to Belgium. Emergence risk was considered low (Pandora score 0.29), while disease consequences were deemed high (0.93); the resulting multiplicative overall risk of ASFV for Belgium was low (0.27). The Belgian experts tended to give lower risk scores than the European experts, especially for entry risk and trade/public opinion consequences. These risk scores are further interpreted with a due consideration of the qualitative data in the expert remarks and of other ASF risk assessments. The results are similar to more extensive and elaborate risk assessment models/procedures which may require more time and resources. The Pandora tool allows sequential updates to monitor (rates of) increasing risk and provides information for risk managers to organize targeted control.

An update on the epidemiology and pathology of African swine fever

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important infectious diseases of swine and has major negative consequences for affected countries. ASF is present in many sub-Saharan countries, Sardinia and several countries of eastern and central Europe, where its continuous spread has the swine industry on heightened alert. ASF is a complex disease for which no vaccine or treatment is available, so its control is based on early detection and rapid control of spread. For a robust and reliable early detection programme it is essential to be able to recognize the clinical signs and pathological changes of ASF, keeping in mind that in most cases the first introductions don't show high mortality nor characteristic clinical signs or lesions, but fever and some hemorrhagic lymph nodes. Knowledge of the main characteristics of this infection, including its current distribution and routes of transmission, is also essential for preventing and controlling ASF. This review addresses each of these topics and aims to update knowledge of the disease in order to improve early detection of ASF in the field and allow implementation of public health programmes.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

Background

The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway.

Results

The framework’s results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar).

Conclusions

The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model’s results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

A análise de risco como ferramenta estratégica para o serviço veterinário oficial brasileiro: dificuldades e desafios

O serviço veterinário oficial é responsável por proteger a saúde pública e animal, assegurando a oferta de produtos de origem animal inócuos aos consumidores. Uma ferramenta que auxilia na busca desses objetivos é a análise de risco, que iniciou a ser utilizada na segunda metade da década de 90 pelos serviços veterinários oficiais dos países. Para a realização de uma análise de risco, qualitativa ou quantitativa, inicialmente deve-se identificar o perigo, a qual na área da saúde animal geralmente é o agente patogênico causador de uma doença. A etapa subsequente é a avaliação do risco, na qual devem ser analisados, com suporte de trabalhos científicos ou especialistas na área, as formas possíveis de introdução, exposição e manutenção do agente patogênico na população susceptível, bem como as consequências, biológicas, econômicas, políticas e sociais trazidas pela enfermidade. A terceira etapa da análise de risco refere-se ao manejo dos riscos, que visa propor medidas que mitiguem o risco verificado até o nível desejado, bem como avaliar o custo/benefício de cada medida. A última fase de uma análise de risco é a comunicação dos riscos. Essa etapa é fundamental para o sucesso do estudo e deve ser iniciada juntamente com a análise de risco em si, sempre deixando aberto um canal permanente de comunicação com todos os atores sociais interessados na análise de risco. A análise de risco tornou-se um importante instrumento utilizado pelos gestores dos serviços veterinários oficiais na tomada de decisões, contribuindo para a escolha de alternativas que confiram, cientificamente, o menor risco sanitário. Este trabalho realizou uma revisão da literatura sobre análise de risco objetivando expor sua definição e processo de elaboração, assim como verificar como ela está sendo utilizada, quais limitações e desafios do uso dessa ferramenta pelo serviço veterinário oficial brasileiro.

Assessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar

The presence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region and Russian Federation has increased concerns that wild boars may introduce the ASF virus into the European Union (EU). This study describes a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the risk of ASF introduction into the EU by wild boar movements based on the following risk estimators: the susceptible population of (1) wild boars and (2) domestic pigs in the country of origin; the outbreak density in (3) wild boars and (4) domestic pigs in the countries of origin, the (5) suitable habitat for wild boars along the EU border; and the distance between the EU border and the nearest ASF outbreak in (6) wild boars or (7) domestic pigs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential risk estimators. The highest risk was found to be concentrated in Finland, Romania, Latvia and Poland, and wild boar habitat and outbreak density were the two most important risk estimators. Animal health authorities in at-risk countries should be aware of these risk estimators and should communicate closely with wild boar hunters and pig farmers to rapidly detect and control ASF.

Transmission rate of African swine fever virus under experimental conditions

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal, viral disease of swine. No vaccine is available, so controlling an ASF outbreak is highly dependent on zoosanitary measures, such as stamping out infected herds and quarantining of affected areas. Information on ASF transmission parameters could allow for more efficient application of outbreak control measures. Three transmission experiments were carried out to estimate the transmission parameters of two ASF virus isolates: Malta'78 (in two doses) and Netherlands'86. Different criteria were used for onset of infectiousness of infected pigs and moment of infection of contact pigs. The transmission rate (β), estimated by a Generalized Linear Model, ranged from 0.45 to 3.63 per day. For the infectious period, a minimum as well as a maximum infectious period was determined, to account for uncertainties regarding infectiousness of persistently infected pigs. While the minimum infectious period ranged from 6 to 7 days, the average maximum infectious period ranged from approximately 20 to nearly 40 days. Estimates of the reproduction ratio (R) for the first generation of transmission ranged from 4.9 to 24.2 for the minimum infectious period and from 9.8 to 66.3 for the maximum infectious period, depending on the isolate. A first approximation of the basic reproduction ratio (R0) resulted in an estimate of 18.0 (6.90-46.9) for the Malta'78 isolate. This is the first R0 estimate of an ASFV isolate under experimental conditions. The estimates of the transmission parameters provide a quantitative insight into ASFV epidemiology and can be used for the design and evaluation of more efficient control measures.

Introduction of African swine fever into the European Union through illegal importation of pork and pork products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever introduction through illegal importation of pork and products. On a relative risk scale with six categories from negligible to very high, five European Union countries were estimated at high (France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom) or moderate (Spain) risk of African swine fever release, five countries were at high risk of exposure if African swine fever were released (France, Italy, Poland, Romania and Spain) and ten countries had a moderate exposure risk (Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom). The approach presented here and results obtained for African swine fever provide a basis for the enhancement of risk-based surveillance systems and disease prevention programmes in the European Union.

Risk assessment of the introduction of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus via boar semen into Switzerland as an example of a PRRSV-free country

Switzerland is currently porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free, but semen imports from PRRSV-infected European countries are increasing. As the virus can be transmitted via semen, for example, when a free boar stud becomes infected, and the risk of its import in terms of PRRSV introduction is unknown, the annual probability to accidentally import the virus into Switzerland was estimated in a risk assessment. A quantitative stochastic model was set up with data comprised by import figures of 2010, interviews with boar stud owners and expert opinion. It resulted in an annual median number of 0.18 imported ejaculates (= imported semen doses from one collection from one donor) from PRRSV-infected boars. Hence, one infected ejaculate would be imported every 6 years and infect a mean of 10 sows. These results suggest that under current circumstances, there is a substantial risk of PRRSV introduction into Switzerland via imported boar semen and that measures to enhance safety of imports should be taken. The time from infection of a previously negative boar stud to its detection had the highest impact on the number of imported 'positive' ejaculates. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on PRRSV monitoring protocols in boar studs. Results indicated that a substantial increase in safety could only be achieved with much tighter sampling protocols than currently performed. Generally, the model could easily be customized for other applications like other countries or regions or even sow farms that want to estimate their risk when purchasing semen from a particular boar stud.

Epidemiology of African swine fever virus

African swine fever virus used to occur primarily in Africa. There had been occasional incursions into Europe or America which apart from the endemic situation on the island of Sardinia always had been successfully controlled. But following an introduction of the virus in 2007, it now has expanded its geographical distribution into Caucasus and Eastern Europe where it has not been controlled, to date. African swine fever affects domestic and wild pig species, and can involve tick vectors. The ability of the virus to survive within a particular ecosystem is defined by the ecology of its wild host populations and the characteristics of livestock production systems, which influence host and vector species densities and interrelationships. African swine fever has high morbidity in naïve pig populations and can result in very high mortality. There is no vaccine or treatment available. Apart from stamping out and movement control, there are no control measures, thereby potentially resulting in extreme losses for producers. Prevention and control of the infection requires good understanding of its epidemiology, so that targeted measures can be instigated.

Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through transport-associated routes: returning trucks and waste from international ships and planes

Background

The uncontrolled presence of African swine fever (ASF) in Russian Federation (RF) poses a serious risk to the whole European Union (EU) pig industry. Although trade of pigs and their products is banned since the official notification in June 2007, the potential introduction of ASF virus (ASFV) may occur by other routes, which are very frequent in ASF, and more difficult to control, such as contaminated waste or infected vehicles. This study was intended to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction into the EU through three types of transport routes: returning trucks, waste from international ships and waste from international planes, which will be referred here as transport-associated routes (TAR). Since no detailed and official information was available for these routes, a semi-quantitative model based on the weighted combination of risk factors was developed to estimate the risk of ASFV introduction by TAR. Relative weights for combination of different risk factors as well as validation of the model results were obtained by an expert opinion elicitation.

Results

Model results indicate that the relative risk for ASFV introduction through TAR in most of the EU countries (16) is low, although some countries, specifically Poland and Lithuania, concentrate high levels of risk, the returning trucks route being the analyzed TAR that currently poses the highest risk for ASFV introduction into the EU. The spatial distribution of the risk of ASFV introduction varies importantly between the analyzed introduction routes. Results also highlight the need to increase the awareness and precautions for ASF prevention, particularly ensuring truck disinfection, to minimize the potential risk of entrance into the EU.

Conclusions

This study presents the first assessment of ASF introduction into the EU through TAR. The innovative model developed here could be used in data scarce situations for estimating the relative risk associated to each EU country. This simple methodology provides a rapid and easy to interpret results on risk that may be used for a target and cost-effective allocation of resources to prevent disease introduction.