Impact of treatment on hepatitis C virus transmission and incidence in Egypt: A case for treatment as prevention

Liver Cancer in 2021: Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The epidemiology of adult primary liver cancer continues to evolve, related to the increasing prevalence of metabolic disease, rising alcohol consumption, advancements in vaccination for hepatitis B (HBV), and antiviral therapy for hepatitis C (HCV). Disparities in care and the burden of liver cancer between populations persist. We assess trends in the burden of liver cancer and contributions by various etiologies across 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2021.

METHODS

Utilizing the methodological framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed global and regional temporal trends in incidence and mortality, and the contributions of various etiologies of liver disease.

RESULTS

In 2021, there were an estimated 529202 incident cases and 483875 deaths related to liver cancer. From 2010 to 2021, global liver cancer incident cases and deaths increased by 26% and 25%, respectively. Global age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and death rates (ASDRs) for liver cancer declined but rose in the Americas and Southeast Asia. HBV remained the dominant cause of global incident liver cancer cases and deaths. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was the only etiology of liver cancer with rising ASIRs and ASDRs. By contrast, ASIRs and ASDRs remained stable for alcohol-related liver cancer, and declined for HBV- and HCV-related liver cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

While age-adjusted incidence and deaths from liver cancer have started to decline, the absolute number of incident cases and deaths continues to increase. Population growth and aging contribute to the observed disconnect in the temporal trends of absolute cases and rates. Disparities remain, and MASLD-related liver cancer continues to surge.

Hepatitis C risk score as a tool to identify individuals with HCV infection: a demonstration and cross-sectional epidemiological study in Egypt

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country.

METHODS

We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores.

RESULTS

The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C viruses among migrant workers in Qatar

Limited data exist on viral hepatitis among migrant populations. This study investigated the prevalence of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and lifetime hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting 60% of the country's population. Sera collected during a nationwide COVID-19 population-based cross-sectional survey on CMWs between July 26 and September 9, 2020, underwent testing for HBsAg and HCV antibodies. Reactive samples underwent confirmatory testing, and logistic regression analyses were employed to explore associations with HBV and HCV infections. Among 2528 specimens tested for HBV infection, 15 were reactive, with 8 subsequently confirmed positive. Three samples lacked sufficient sera for confirmatory testing but were included in the analysis through multiple imputations. Prevalence of current HBV infection was 0.4% (95% CI 0.2-0.7%). Educational attainment and occupation were significantly associated with current HBV infection. For HCV infection, out of 2607 specimens tested, 46 were reactive, and 23 were subsequently confirmed positive. Prevalence of lifetime HCV infection was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5-1.2%). Egyptians exhibited the highest prevalence at 6.5% (95% CI 3.1-13.1%), followed by Pakistanis at 3.1% (95% CI 1.1-8.0%). Nationality, geographic location, and occupation were significantly associated with lifetime HCV infection. HBV infection is relatively low among CMWs, while HCV infection falls within the intermediate range, both compared to global and regional levels.

Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Background

The current study uniquely focuses on the global incidence and temporal trends of acute hepatitis C (AHC) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from 1990-2019. The risk of vertical transmission and adverse perinatal outcomes associated with HCV infection underscores the importance of prioritising these women in HCV prevention efforts.

Methods

Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and assessed temporal trends via the average annual percent change from joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort model was employed to understand further the effects of age, period, and birth cohort.

Results

Over the 30 years, global incidences of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women increased by 46.45 and 72.74%, respectively. The ASIR of AHC was highest in low sociodemographic index regions but showed a declining trend. Conversely, the ASIR of HCV-related cirrhosis displayed unfavourable trends in low, low-middle, and high sociodemographic index regions. Special attention is necessary for sub-Saharan Africa, high-income North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia due to their high incidence rates or increasing trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent resurgence in AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis risk.

Conclusions

The current study is the first to thoroughly evaluate the trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis among reproductive-age women, shedding light on previously unexplored aspects of HCV epidemiology. Our findings identify critical areas where health care systems must adapt to the changing dynamics of HCV infection. The detailed stratification by region and nation further enables the development of localised prevention and treatment strategies.

Future Prospects, Approaches, and the Government's Role in the Development of a Hepatitis C Virus Vaccine

Developing a safe and effective vaccine against the hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a top priority for global health. Despite recent advances in antiviral therapies, the high cost and limited accessibility of these treatments impede their widespread application, particularly in resource-limited settings. Therefore, the development of the HCV vaccine remains a necessity. This review article analyzes the current technologies, future prospects, strategies, HCV genomic targets, and the governmental role in HCV vaccine development. We discuss the current epidemiological landscape of HCV infection and the potential of HCV structural and non-structural protein antigens as vaccine targets. In addition, the involvement of government agencies and policymakers in supporting and facilitating the development of HCV vaccines is emphasized. We explore how vaccine development regulatory channels and frameworks affect research goals, funding, and public health policy. The significance of international and public-private partnerships in accelerating the development of an HCV vaccine is examined. Finally, the future directions for developing an HCV vaccine are discussed. In conclusion, the review highlights the urgent need for a preventive vaccine to fight the global HCV disease and the significance of collaborative efforts between scientists, politicians, and public health organizations to reach this important public health goal.

Patterns and trends of hepatitis C virus infection in Jordan: an observational study

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection levels in Jordan remain uncertain. No HCV national population-based survey has ever been conducted in the country. To meet the World Health Organization's target of reducing HCV incidence to ≤5 per 100,000 people per year by 2030, it is essential to determine the infection levels, identify affected individuals and populations, and provide appropriate treatment using direct-acting antivirals to individuals carrying the virus.

Methods

The study utilized the HCV testing database of 28,798 attendees of Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories in Jordan, covering the period from January 19, 2010, to May 26, 2023. Cross-sectional and cohort study analyses were conducted, including estimating HCV antibody (Ab) prevalence, examining associations with HCV Ab positivity, determining the HCV viremic rate, and estimating HCV incidence rate using a retrospective cohort study design.

Results

A total of 27,591 individuals, with a median age of 31.3 and 52.9% being females, underwent HCV Ab testing, while 1,450 individuals, with a median age of 42.2 and 32.8% being females, underwent HCV RNA PCR testing. The study sample HCV Ab prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7-4.2%). After applying probability weights, the weighted HCV Ab prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.6-7.3%). Age was strongly associated with HCV Ab positivity, particularly among individuals aged 50 years or older, who had 10-fold higher odds of being HCV Ab positive compared to those aged 10-19 years. Males had 2.41-fold higher odds of testing positive for HCV Ab compared to females. The HCV viremic rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 43.0-65.0%). The cumulative incidence of HCV infection, after 5 years of follow-up, was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI: 0.17-0.99%). The HCV incidence rate was calculated at 1.19 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.50-2.87).

Conclusion

Prevalence and incidence of HCV infection were substantial, estimated at ~5% and 1 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, and highlighting the presence of core groups actively engaged in the virus' acquisition and transmission. The high observed viremic rate indicates the need for expanding HCV treatment efforts to effectively control HCV transmission in Jordan. Utilizing quality diagnostic laboratories and innovative testing strategies is key to identifying infection carriers and facilitating linkage to treatment and care.

Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study

Background

Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries.

Methods

An age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years by 2030.

Results

In the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 2,610 in Lebanon to 180,416 in Sudan with a median of 53,079, and treatment coverage ranged between 40.2 and 78.4% with a median of 60.4%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection ranged between 0.0 and 0.3% with a median of 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, ranged between 0.9 and 16.3 with a median of 3.2. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 47.8 and 81.9% with a median of 68.5%, and number of averted infections ranged between 401 and 68,499 with a median of 8,703. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.7 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 6.5. In the target incidence rate  < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 3,470 in Lebanon to 211,912 in Sudan with a median of 54,479, and treatment coverage ranged between 55.5 and 95.9% with a median of 87.5%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection was less than 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, reached less than 1. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 61.0 and 97.5% with a median of 90.7%, and number of averted infections ranged between 559 and 104,315 with a median of 12,158. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.3 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 5.5.

Conclusion

HCV-TasP is an effective and indispensable prevention intervention to control MENA's HCV epidemic and to achieve elimination by 2030.

Characterizing trends and associations for hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: meta-regression analyses

This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Interleukin 28B Polymorphism as a Predictor of Sustained Virological Response to Sofosbuvir-Based Therapy for Hepatitis C Virus Patients

In various genome-wide correlation studies, interleukin (IL)28B gene polymorphism has been strongly correlated with both the therapeutic and spontaneous mediated clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the genotype and allele frequency distributions of IL28B (rs12979860) in patients with chronic hepatitis C and assess the IL28B polymorphisms as predictors of sustained virological response to SOF-based therapy for HCV in Egyptian patients. This retrospective case-control study was conducted on 54 chronic HCV patients who completed treatment with SOF/DCV ± RBV for 12 weeks and responded to treatment with SVR12 (the responder group) as a control group, and 54 chronic HCV patients who completed treatment with SOF/DCV ± RBV for 12 weeks and did not respond to treatment and failed to achieve SVR12 (the non-responder group) as a case group. The CC genotype frequency of IL-28B (rs12979860) was greater in the responder group (51.9%). In contrast, the TT genotype frequency was higher in the non-responder group (48.1%) (p < 0.001), and the T allele significantly increased the risk of non-responses by 3.13 fold. Therefore IL-28B (rs12979860) SNP could be used as a genetic predictor of sustained virological response to SOF+DCV ± RBV-based HCV treatment in Egyptian patients.

Treating people where they are: Nurse-led micro-elimination of hepatitis C in supported housing sites for networks of people who inject drugs in Victoria, Canada

To achieve the World Health Organization's goal of eliminating hepatitis C (HCV) by 2030 requires enhanced HCV testing and treatment among people who use drugs (PWUD). Micro-elimination of HCV is a strategy to target HCV testing and treatment efforts to specific segments of the population. From February to December 2018 nurses initiated a "seek & treat" micro-elimination approach, increasing outreach and removing barriers to accessing HCV treatment in a clinic setting by testing and treating individuals, including PWUD, where they live. The aim of this study was to evaluate the proportion of clients with HCV antibodies and HCV RNA and the response to direct acting agent (DAA therapy) among people who live at or have social connections to local supportive housing sites through this nurse-led micro-elimination project in Victoria, Canada. A chart review of electronic medical records and case management documentation was used to collect relevant data of participants treated with DAA therapy, identified through specific housing site testing and outreach interventions. In total, 180 people were tested for HCV antibodies, 72 (40%) were antibody positive: 51 (28%) were RNA positive, 13 (7%) had spontaneously cleared and 8 (4%) had been previously treated. Of the 51 that were currently living with HCV, 43 people were started on treatment, 39 have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). By providing treatment to clients in their homes and with their friends, clinicians have been able to treat clients, including those with limited contact with the health care system.

Methods and indicators to validate country reductions in incidence of hepatitis C virus infection to elimination levels set by WHO

One of the main goals of the 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis is the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health problem by 2030, defined as an 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in mortality relative to 2015. Although monitoring HCV incidence is key to validating HCV elimination, use of the gold-standard method, which involves prospective HCV retesting of people at risk, can be prohibitively resource-intensive. Additionally, few countries collected quality data in 2015 to enable an 80% decrease by 2030 to be calculated. Here, we first review different methods of monitoring HCV incidence and discuss their resource implications and applicability to various populations. Second, using mathematical models developed for various global settings, we assess whether trends in HCV chronic prevalence or HCV antibody prevalence or scale-up levels for HCV testing, treatment, and preventative interventions can be used as reliable alternative indicators to validate the HCV incidence target. Third, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of an absolute HCV incidence target and suggest a suitable threshold. Finally, we propose three options that countries can use to validate the HCV incidence target, depending on the available surveillance infrastructure.

Hepatitis C virus among blood donors and general population in Middle East and North Africa: Meta-analyses and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Despite the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region reported to have the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) globally, HCV infection levels in the majority of MENA countries remain inadequately characterized. Blood donor data have been previously used as a proxy to assess levels and trends of HCV in the general population, however, it is unclear how comparable these populations are in MENA and whether blood donors provide an appropriate proxy.

AIM

To delineate HCV epidemiology among blood donors and the general population in the MENA.

METHODS

The data source was the systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. For comparison, analyses were conducted for Europe, utilizing the Hepatitis C Prevalence Database of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

RESULTS

One thousand two hundred and thirteen HCV antibody prevalence measures and 84 viremic rate measures were analyzed for MENA. Three hundred and seventy-seven antibody prevalence measures were analyzed for Europe. In MENA, pooled mean prevalence was 1.58% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48%–1.69%] among blood donors and 4.49% (95%CI: 4.10%–4.90%) in the general population. In Europe, pooled prevalence was 0.11% (95%CI: 0.10%–0.13%) among blood donors and 1.59% (95%CI: 1.25%–1.97%) in the general population. Prevalence in the general population was 1.72-fold (95%CI: 1.50–1.97) higher than that in blood donors in MENA, but it was 15.10-fold (95%CI: 11.48–19.86) higher in Europe. Prevalence was declining at a rate of 4% per year in both MENA and Europe [adjusted risk ratio: 0.96 (95%CI: 0.95–0.97) in MENA and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.92–0.99) in Europe]. Pooled mean viremic rate in MENA was 76.29% (95%CI: 67.64%–84.02%) among blood donors and 65.73% (95%CI: 61.03%–70.29%) in the general population.

CONCLUSION

Blood donor data provide a useful proxy for HCV infection in the wider population in MENA, but not Europe, and could improve HCV burden estimations and assess progress toward HCV elimination by 2030.

Worldwide prevalence, genotype distribution and management of hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma, resulting in major global public health concerns. The HCV infection is unevenly distributed worldwide, with variations in prevalence across and within countries. The studies on molecular epidemiology conducted in several countries provide an essential supplement for a comprehensive knowledge of HCV epidemiology, genotypes, and subtypes, along with providing information on the impact of current and earlier migratory flows. HCV is phylogenetically classified into 8 major genotypes and 57 subtypes. HCV genotype and subtype distribution differ according to geographic origin and transmission risk category. Unless people with HCV infection are detected and treated appropriately, the number of deaths due to the disease will continue to increase. In 2015, 1.75 million new viral infections were mostly due to unsafe healthcare procedures and drug use injections. In the same year, access to direct-acting antivirals was challenging and varied in developing and developed countries, affecting HCV cure rates based on their availability. The World Health Assembly, in 2016, approved a global strategy to achieve the elimination of the HCV public health threat by 2030 (by reducing new infections by 90% and deaths by 65%). Globally, countries are implementing policies and measures to eliminate HCV risk based on their distribution of genotypes and prevalence.

Analytic Characterization of the Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemic in the United States, 1950-2050

Background

We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.

Methods

A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Results

Over 1950–2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15–49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15–34 years of age.

Conclusions

The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15–34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding >600 000 new infections every year.

Characterizing the historical role of parenteral antischistosomal therapy in hepatitis C virus transmission in Egypt

Background

Egypt is the nation most affected by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, following an epidemic of historic proportions. We aimed to characterize the epidemic’s historical evolution and to delineate the role of parenteral antischistosomal therapy (PAT) campaigns in transmission.

Methods

A mathematical model was constructed and analysed in order to understand HCV-transmission dynamics. The model was fitted to Egypt’s Demographic and Health Survey data and to a systematic database of HCV-prevalence data.

Results

The incidence rate peaked in 1966 at 15.7 infections per 1000 person-years—a period of time that coincides with the PAT campaigns—and rapidly declined thereafter, beginning the mid-1990s. The annual number of new infections peaked in 1993 at 581 200 (with rapid demographic growth), leading to a high-incidence-cohort effect, and declined to 67 800 by 2018. The number of individuals ever infected (1950–2018) was 16.4 million, with HCV prevalence peaking in 1979. The number of individuals ever exposed to PAT was 8.3 million; however, of these individuals, 7.3 million were alive in 1980 and only 3.5 million alive in 2018. The number of individuals ever infected due to PAT exposure was 963 900, with 850 200 individuals alive in 1980 and only 389 800 alive in 2018. The proportion of PAT-attributed prevalent infections peaked at 19.9% in 1972, declining to 5.5% by 2018.

Conclusions

PAT campaigns played an important role in HCV transmission, yet explain only 6% of infections—they appear to be a manifestation, rather than a cause, of the epidemic. A possible driver of the epidemic could be the mass expansion of inadequate-quality healthcare during PAT campaigns and subsequent decades. Despite a historic toll, the epidemic has been rapidly diminishing since the mid-1990s.

Evaluation of MicroRNA-122 as a Biomarker for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection and as a Predictor for Treatment Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background

Treatment response to antiviral drugs is a challenging issue in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although microRNA-122 represents the majority of the microRNA content in hepatic tissues, few studies have evaluated its role in the treatment response, so we aimed to study its role in chronic HCV patients and in predicting the treatment response to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

Methods

The study included 125 chronic HCV patients (89 naïve and 36 with a prior failed peginterferon/ribavirin response) and 50 apparently healthy subjects. Complete blood count, liver function, α-fetoprotein, lipid profiles, serum creatinine, abdominal ultrasound, and FibroScan^® were assessed. Viral markers, HCV antibodies, and hepatitis B surface antigen were measured by enzyme-linked fluorescent immunoassay, with quantitative estimation of HCV RNA and microRNA-122 levels by real-time PCR.

Results

The microRNA-122 level in HCV patients (those with a sustained virologic response 12 weeks after finishing therapy [SVR12] and non-responders) was significantly increased compared with controls and expressed more in non-responders versus SVR12 (p=0.042). ROC curve analysis of microRNA-122 for differentiating HCV patients from healthy controls revealed that a cut-off point of >1.45 had a sensitivity of 67.20%, specificity of 94.0%, AUC=0.861, and p<0.001; and for predicting response to treatment a cut-off point ≤5.66 could significantly (p=0.022) predict the occurrence of SVR, with a sensitivity of 60.34%, specificity of 66.67%, and AUC=0.729. Logistic regression analysis showed significant values for microRNA-122 in multivariate and univariate analysis for the prediction of response to DAAs.

Conclusion

The results demonstrated the possible function of microRNA-122 as an indicative tool for distinguishing chronic HCV patients from controls and in the assessment of the therapeutic reaction to DAAs.

Hepatitis C virus infection and risk factors among patients and health-care workers of Ain Shams University hospitals, Cairo, Egypt

BACKGROUND

Hospitals are suspected of playing a key role in HCV epidemic dynamics in Egypt. This work aimed at assessing HCV prevalence and associated risk factors in patients and health-care workers (HCWs) of Ain Shams University (ASU) hospitals in Cairo.

METHODS

We included 500 patients admitted to the internal medicine or surgery hospital from February to July, 2017, as well as 50 HCWs working in these same hospitals. Participants were screened for anti-HCV antibodies and HCV RNA. A questionnaire was administered to collect data on demographic characteristics and medical/surgical history. For HCWs, questions on occupational exposures and infection control practices were also included.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies was 19.80% (95% CI: 16.54-23.52) among participating patients, and 8.00% (95% CI: 0.48-15.52) among participating HCWs. In HCWs, the only risk factors significantly associated with anti-HCV antibodies were age and profession, with higher prevalence in older HCWs and those working as cleaners or porters. In patients, in a multivariate logistic regression, age over 50 (aOR: 3.4 [1.9-5.8]), living outside Cairo (aOR: 2.1 [1.2-3.4]), admission for liver or gastro-intestinal complaints (aOR: 4.2 [1.8-9.9]), and history of receiving parenteral anti-schistosomiasis treatment (aOR: 2.7 [1.2-5.9]) were found associated with anti-HCV antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

While HCV prevalence among patients has decreased since the last survey performed within ASU hospitals in 2008, it is still significantly higher than in the general population. These results may help better control further HCV spread within healthcare settings in Egypt by identifying at-risk patient profiles upon admission.

Reduced incidence of hepatitis C in 9 villages in rural Egypt: Progress towards national elimination goals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Egypt has a major HCV burden and a well established treatment programme, with an ambitious goal of HCV elimination. Our aim was to assess the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme on the incidence of new HCV infections in 9 villages in rural Egypt.

METHODS

An HCV "educate, test and treat" project was implemented in 73 villages across 7 governorates in Egypt between 06/2015 and 06/2018. In 2018, in 9 of the villages we re-tested individuals who originally tested HCV antibody (HCV-Ab) and HBsAg negative using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs); confirmatory HCV RNA testing was performed for positive cases. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years (py) was calculated, and risk factors for incident HCV infections assessed through an interviewer-administered questionnaire in 1:3 age- and gender-matched cases and controls.

RESULTS

Out of 20,490 individuals who originally tested HCV-Ab negative in the 9 villages during the 2015-2016 implementation of the "educate, test and treat" programme, 19,816 (96.7%) were re-tested in 2018. Over a median of 2.4 years (IQR 2.1-2.7), there were 19 new HCV infections all of which were HCV RNA positive (incidence rate 0.37/1,000 py) (95% CI 0.24-0.59). Compared to a previous estimate of incidence in the Nile Delta region (2.4/1,000 py) from 2006, there was a substantial reduction in overall incidence of new HCV infections. Exposures through surgery (odds ratio 51; 95% CI 3.5-740.1) and dental procedures (odds ratio 23.8; 95% CI 2.9-194.9) were significant independent predictors of incident infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to show a substantial reduction in incidence of new HCV infections in a sample of the general population in Egypt following attainment of high testing and treatment coverage. New infections were significantly associated with healthcare-associated exposures.

LAY SUMMARY

Egypt has a major national HCV testing and treatment programme with the goal of eliminating HCV infection. We assessed the impact of a comprehensive HCV prevention, test and treat programme in 73 villages that achieved high coverage of testing and treatment on the subsequent incidence of new HCV infections in nine of the villages. We re-tested people who were previously HCV antibody negative and found that the rate of new HCV infections was greatly reduced compared to previous estimates. We also found that exposure through surgery and dental procedures were associated with these new infections. This highlights the importance of continued strengthening of infection control and prevention measures, alongside treatment scale-up.

Characterizing key attributes of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in China's original outbreak: Model-based estimations

A novel coronavirus strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China. This study aims to characterize key attributes of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology as the infection emerged in China. An age-stratified mathematical model was constructed to describe transmission dynamics and estimate age-specific differences in biological susceptibility to infection, age-assortativeness in transmission mixing, and transition in rate of infectious contacts (and reproduction number R 0) following introduction of mass interventions. The model estimated the infectious contact rate in early epidemic at 0.59 contacts/day (95% uncertainty interval-UI = 0.48-0.71). Relative to those 60-69 years, susceptibility was 0.06 in those ≤19 years, 0.34 in 20-29 years, 0.57 in 30-39 years, 0.69 in 40-49 years, 0.79 in 50-59 years, 0.94 in 70-79 years, and 0.88 in ≥80 years. Assortativeness in transmission mixing by age was limited at 0.004 (95% UI = 0.002-0.008). R 0 rapidly declined from 2.1 (95% UI = 1.8-2.4) to 0.06 (95% UI = 0.05-0.07) following interventions' onset. Age appears to be a principal factor in explaining the transmission patterns in China. The biological susceptibility to infection seems limited among children but high among those >50 years. There was no evidence for differential contact mixing by age.

Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide

Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million. Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age: 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the final cumulative infection incidence was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9). Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.

Quadruple Therapy Offers High SVR Rates in Patients with HCV Genotype 4 with Previous Treatment Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have made a revolution in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment with promising reduction of HCV infection and disease morbidities. However, unfortunately, treatment failure still occurs in about 5-15% of patients treated with DAA-based combination regimens. The primary aim of the study was to assess the efficacy and safety of a quadruple regimen of (sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir with a weight-based ribavirin) in chronic HCV DAAs-experienced patients.

METHODS

This observational, open-label prospective study was carried out on 103 genotype 4 hepatitis C virus-infected patients who failed to achieve SVR12 after sofosbuvir-daclatasvir with or without ribavirin. Patients were treated for three months with sofosbuvir (400 mg), daclatasvir (60 mg), and simeprevir (150 mg) with a weight-based ribavirin dosage (1000-1200 mg/d). Response to treatment was determined by quantitative PCR for HCV at 3 months after the end of treatment (SVR12), and adverse events during the treatment were recorded.

RESULTS

SVR was achieved in 100 patients (97.1%) at week 12 after treatment. No dangerous or life-threatening adverse events were recorded.

CONCLUSIONS

Retreatment of HCV genotype 4 patients with quadruple therapy is a good therapeutic option and achieves high response rates with minimal side effects.

The status of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The aim of this study was to delineate the epidemiology of HCV in PWID in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

METHODS

Syntheses of data were conducted on the standardized and systematically assembled databases of the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project, 1989-2018. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed. Meta-regression variables included country, study site, year of data collection and year of publication [to assess trends in HCV antibody prevalence over time], sample size and sampling methodology. Numbers of chronically infected PWID across MENA were estimated. The Shannon Diversity Index was calculated to assess genotype diversity.

RESULTS

Based on 118 HCV antibody prevalence measures, the pooled mean prevalence in PWID for all MENA was 49.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.4-54.1%]. The country-specific pooled mean ranged from 21.7% (95% CI = 4.9-38.6%) in Tunisia to 94.2% (95% CI = 90.8-96.7%) in Libya. An estimated 221 704 PWID were chronically infected, with the largest numbers found in Iran at 68 526 and in Pakistan at 46 554. There was no statistically significant evidence for a decline in HCV antibody prevalence over time. Genotype diversity was moderate (Shannon Diversity Index of 1.01 out of 1.95; 52.1%). The pooled mean percentage for each HCV genotype was highest in genotype 3 (42.7%) and in genotype 1 (35.9%).

CONCLUSION

Half of people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa appear to have ever been infected with hepatitis C virus, but there are large variations in antibody prevalence among countries. In addition to > 200 000 chronically infected current people who inject drugs, there is an unknown number of people who no longer inject drugs who may have acquired hepatitis C virus during past injecting drug use. Harm reduction services must be expanded, and innovative strategies need to be employed to ensure accessibility to hepatitis C virus testing and treatment.

The Elimination of Hepatitis C as a Public Health Threat

Hepatitis C virus is a global public health threat, affecting 71 million people worldwide. Increasing recognition of the impact of this epidemic and recent advances in biomedical and technical approaches to hepatitis C prevention and cure have provided impetus for the World Health Organization (WHO) to call for global elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. This work reviews the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination and pathways to overcome existing and potential future barriers to elimination. Drawing on cost-effectiveness modeling and providing examples of successful implementation efforts across the globe, we highlight the resources and strategies needed to achieve hepatitis C elimination. A timely, multipronged response is required if the 2030 WHO elimination targets are to be achieved. Importantly, achieving hepatitis C elimination will also benefit the community well beyond 2030.

Key associations for hepatitis C virus genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa

This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) through an analytical and quantitative meta-regression methodology. For the most common genotypes 1, 3, and 4, country/subregion explained more than 77% of the variation in the distribution of each genotype. Genotype 1 was common across MENA, and was more present in high-risk clinical populations than in the general population. Genotype 3 was much more present in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan than the rest of countries, and was associated with transmission through injecting drug use. Genotype 4 was broadly disseminated in Egypt in all populations, with overall limited presence elsewhere. While genotype 2 was more present in high-risk clinical populations and people who inject drugs, most of the variation in its distribution remained unexplained. Genotypes 5, 6, and 7 had low or no presence in MENA, limiting the epidemiological inferences that could be drawn. To sum up, geography is the principal determinant of HCV genotype distribution. Genotype 1 is associated with transmission through high-risk clinical procedures, while genotype 3 is associated with injecting drug use. These findings demonstrate the power of such analytical approach, which if extended to other regions and globally, can yield relevant epidemiological inferences.

Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Populations With Liver-Related Diseases in the Middle East and North Africa

We investigated hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in populations with liver‐related diseases (LRDs) in the Middle East and North Africa. The data source was standardized databases of HCV measures populated through systematic reviews. Random‐effects meta‐analyses and meta‐regressions were performed, and genotype diversity was assessed. Analyses were based on 252 HCV antibody prevalence measures, eight viremic rate measures, and 30 genotype measures on 132,358 subjects. Pooled mean prevalence in LRD populations was 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.5%‐66.0%) in Egypt and 55.8% (95% CI, 49.1%‐62.4%) in Pakistan; these values were higher than in other countries, which had a pooled prevalence of only 15.6% (95% CI, 12.4%‐19.0%). Mean prevalence was highest in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma at 56.9% (95% CI, 50.2%‐63.5%) and those with cirrhosis at 50.4% (95% CI, 40.8%‐60.0%). Type of LRD population and country were the strongest predictors of prevalence, explaining 48.6% of the variation. No evidence for prevalence decline was found, but there was strong evidence for prevalence increase in Pakistan. A strong, positive association was identified between prevalence in the general population and that in LRD populations; the Pearson correlation coefficient ranged between 0.605 and 0.862. The pooled mean viremic rate was 75.5% (95% CI, 61.0%‐87.6%). Genotype 4 was most common (44.2%), followed by genotype 3 (34.5%), genotype 1 (17.0%), genotype 2 (3.5%), genotype 6 (0.5%), and genotype 5 (0.3%). Conclusion: HCV appears to play a dominant role in liver diseases in Egypt and Pakistan and has a growing role in Pakistan. Testing and treatment of LRD populations are essential to reduce disease burden and transmission and to reach HCV elimination by 2030.

Hepatitis C elimination - Macro-elimination

In 2016 the WHO set a goal to obtain an 80% reduction in new chronic HCV cases, requiring a level of diagnosis of 90%, treatment coverage of 80% and resulting in a 65% reduction in HCV-related deaths by 2030. This goal is easier to reach in specific populations such as people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) or blood-transfusion recipients before screening for HCV became mandatory and in high-income regions. It is much more difficult to achieve macro-elimination throughout the population especially in low-income areas with underdeveloped infrastructures, a high prevalence of HCV and limited economic resources. To achieve the WHO goals by 2030, awareness of HCV must increase and the cascade of care must be improved and implemented. Diagnostic procedures and treatment should be affordable and universally available. At the end of 2017 fewer than 15 countries were on track to reach these goals by 2030.

Assessment of lncRNA GAS5, lncRNA HEIH, lncRNA BISPR and its mRNA BST2 as serum innovative non-invasive biomarkers: Recent insights into Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus type 4

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and its consequent complications are undeniably a public health burden worldwide, particularly in Egypt. Emerging evidence suggests that many lncRNAs have relevant roles in viral infections and antiviral responses.

AIM

To investigate the expression profiles of circulating lncRNAGAS5, lncRNAHEIH, lncRNABISPR and mRNABST2 in naïve, treated and relapsed HCV Egyptian patients, to elucidate relation to HCV infection and their efficacy as innovative biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of HCV GT4.

METHODS

One hundred and thirty HCV-infected Egyptian patients and 20 healthy controls were included in this study. Serum lncRNAs and mRNABST2 were measured using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR).

RESULTS

Our results indicated that serum lncRNAGAS5 and LncRNABISPR were upregulated, whereas mRNA BST2 and LncRNA HEIH were downregulated in naïve patients. In contrast, HCV patients treated with sofosbuvir and simeprevir; with sofosbuvir and daclatasvir; or with sofosbuvir, daclatasvir and ribavirin exhibited lower levels of lncRNAGAS5 and lncRNABISPR with higher mRNABST2 compared to naïve patients. Notably, patients relapsed from sofosbuvir and simeprevir showed higher levels of these lncRNAs with lower mRNABST2 compared to treated patients. LncRNAGAS5 and lncRNABISPR were positively correlated with viral load and ALT at P < 0.001, whereas mRNABST2 was negatively correlated with viral load at P < 0.001 and ALT at P < 0.05. Interestingly, a significant positive correlation between lncRNA HEIH and AFP was observed at P < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Differential expression of these RNAs suggests their involvement in HCV pathogenesis or antiviral response and highlights their promising roles in diagnosis and prognosis of HCV.

Modelling the potential prevention benefits of a treat-all hepatitis C treatment strategy at global, regional and country levels: A modelling study

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently produced guidelines advising a treat-all policy for HCV to encourage widespread treatment scale-up for achieving HCV elimination. We modelled the prevention impact achieved (HCV infections averted [IA]) from initiating this policy compared with treating different subgroups at country, regional and global levels. We assessed what country-level factors affect impact. A dynamic, deterministic HCV transmission model was calibrated to data from global systematic reviews and UN data sets to simulate country-level HCV epidemics with ongoing levels of treatment. For each country, the model projected the prevention impact (in HCV IA per treatment undertaken) of initiating four treatment strategies; either selected randomly (treat-all) or targeted among people who inject drugs (PWID), people aged ≥35, or those with cirrhosis. The IA was assessed over 20 years. Linear regression was used to identify associations between IA per treatment and demographic factors. Eighty-eight countries (85% of the global population) were modelled. Globally, the model estimated 0.35 (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.16-0.61) IA over 20 years for every randomly allocated treatment, 0.30 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.53) from treating those aged ≥35 and 0.28 (95%CrI: 0.12-0.49) for those with cirrhosis. Globally, treating PWID achieved 1.27 (95%CrI: 0.68-2.04) IA per treatment. The IA per randomly allocated treatment was positively associated with a country's population growth rate and negatively associated with higher HCV prevalence among PWID. In conclusion, appreciable prevention benefits could be achieved from WHO's treat-all strategy, although greater benefits per treatment can be achieved through targeting PWID. Higher impact will be achieved in countries with high population growth.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of a pilot study of hospital-based hepatitis C epidemic surveillance

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of hospital-based hepatitis C epidemic surveillance initiated by China's CDC STD/AIDS (National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention) Prevention and Control Center in 2017.A total of 104,666 anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) and 633 HCV-RNA detection records in our hospital from 2014 to 2017 were used to analyze the anti-HCV and HCV-RNA detection rates and positive rates in patients before and after implementation of epidemic surveillance.We found that the estimated HCV positive rate was 0.395% in all patients, and this rate increased to 0.533% after the pilot research. The positive rates of anti-HCV were significantly enhanced, although certain differences were observed among different departments. Significant increase of positive rate of HCV-RNA was only found in the inpatients from nonsurgical departments. Eighty-one cases were diagnosed after this pilot research, exceeding the 70 total cases in the previous 3 years. Most cases were diagnosed by nonsurgical departments; the upward trend of the cases diagnosed by surgical departments cannot be ignored.Our study indicates expanding anti-HCV and HCV-RNA detection in the target populations in hospitals is a useful strategy for finding more occult HCV infection. In addition, our results provide useful pilot data of the seroepidemiology of Hepatitis C for the special populations in hospitals, which will provide valuable information for public health research.

Mass screening for hepatitis B and C in Southern Upper Egypt

Background

It is well documented that Egypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the world. The recent development of highly effective direct acting antiviral drugs (DAAs), has opened the possibility of treating and curing HCV infection in the Egyptian population on a large scale.

Methods

A screening demonstration project was implemented in southern Egypt in and around the city of Luxor. Free screening and if indicated, treatment, was offered to those 16 years or older for anti-HCV antibodies (anti-HCV) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) using third generation enzyme immunoassays (Enzygnost® Anti-HCV and HbsAg). Statistical methods included estimation of odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

Results

There was a large turnout of 67,042 persons who were screened in a 12-month period starting in June 2016. Thirty-one thousand nine hundred sixty-four males (47.7%) and 35,074 females (52.3%) were screened with a mean age of 43.6 ± 14.3 years. Nine thousand seven hundred one patients (14.5%) were positive for anti-HCV and 2950 (4.4%) for HBsAg. Prevalence of anti-HCV was significantly higher in males than females (19.67% vs.9.73% OR = 2.27; CI 2.2 to 2.4; p < 0.001) and the same for HBsAg (6.2% vs. 2.8% OR = 2.3; CI 2.2 to 2.5; p < 0.001). The prevalence of anti-HCV was significantly associated with age (p < 0.001), ranging from between 1 and 4% in individuals below the age of 40 years, then increased steadily to 42% at age 60 followed by a precipitous decline in age specific prevalence.

Conclusions

The results showed unanticipated patterns in the Luxor area of anti-HCV and HBsAg by age and gender in contrast to previous reports on this unique HCV epidemic in Egypt. Moreover, the level and rate of turnout, cost, and other logistical issues, provided essential information for effective planning, design, and evaluation methods for larger national mass screening and treatment programs.

Hepatitis C

Hepatitis C is a global health problem, and an estimated 71·1 million individuals are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). The global incidence of HCV was 23·7 cases per 100 000 population (95% uncertainty interval 21·3-28·7) in 2015, with an estimated 1·75 million new HCV infections diagnosed in 2015. Globally, the most common infections are with HCV genotypes 1 (44% of cases), 3 (25% of cases), and 4 (15% of cases). HCV transmission is most commonly associated with direct percutaneous exposure to blood, via blood transfusions, health-care-related injections, and injecting drug use. Key high-risk populations include people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, and prisoners. Approximately 10-20% of individuals who are chronically infected with HCV develop complications, such as cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma over a period of 20-30 years. Direct-acting antiviral therapy is now curative, but it is estimated that only 20% of individuals with hepatitis C know their diagnosis, and only 15% of those with known hepatitis C have been treated. Increased diagnosis and linkage to care through universal access to affordable point-of-care diagnostics and pangenotypic direct-acting antiviral therapy is essential to achieve the WHO 2030 elimination targets.

Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: A country case series

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but has long been neglected by national and international policymakers. Recent modelling studies suggest that investing in the global elimination of viral hepatitis is feasible and cost-effective. In 2016, all 194 member states of the World Health Organization endorsed the goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030, but complex systemic and social realities hamper implementation efforts. This paper presents eight case studies from a diverse range of countries that have invested in responses to viral hepatitis and adopted innovative approaches to tackle their respective epidemics. Based on an investment framework developed to build a global investment case for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, national activities and key enablers are highlighted that showcase the feasibility and impact of concerted hepatitis responses across a range of settings, with different levels of available resources and infrastructural development. These case studies demonstrate the utility of taking a multipronged, public health approach to: (a) evidence-gathering and planning; (b) implementation; and (c) integration of viral hepatitis services into the Agenda for Sustainable Development. They provide models for planning, investment and implementation strategies for other countries facing similar challenges and resource constraints.

Paediatric hepatitis C virus infection and its treatment: Present, past, and future

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of chronic liver disease in the world. It is a challenging medico-social problem in the paediatric population. High HCV infection rates are reported in low and middle incomes countries. From the health economic point of view treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) with subsequent virus eradication is very effective as it eliminates the long-term sequelae of untreated or maltreated HCV. In this review we summarize the updates and highlight the historical approach of treatment of chronic HCV infection in children in the new era of directly acting antiviral (DAA) agents.

Characterization of the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan

Background

With one in every 20 Pakistanis already infected, Pakistan has the second largest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections globally. The aim of this study was to present a quantitative and analytical characterization of the HCV epidemic in Pakistan.

Methods

A standardized database of HCV antibody incidence and prevalence and HCV genotypes in all subpopulations was systematically assembled. Random-effects meta-analyses and random-effects meta-regressions were performed. Shannon Diversity Index was calculated to determine genotype diversity.

Results

The database included two incidence, 309 prevalence, and 48 genotype measures. Pooled mean HCV prevalence ranged between 7.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.8–8.3%) in Sindh and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.1–2.4%) in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (F.A.T.A). Estimated number of chronically-infected persons ranged between 4.2 million in Punjab and 0.03 million in F.A.T.A. HCV prevalence was stable over time [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 1.0 (95% CI: 1.0–1.0)]. Population classification was the strongest predictor of HCV prevalence, explaining 51.8% of prevalence variation. Relative to the general population, HCV prevalence was higher in people who inject drugs [AOR of 23.8 (95% CI: 13.0–43.6)], populations with liver-related conditions [AOR of 22.3 (95% CI: 15.7–31.6)], and high-risk clinical populations [AOR of 7.8 (95% CI: 4.8–12.7)]. Low genotype diversity was observed (Shannon diversity index of 0.67 out of 1.95; 34.5%). There were only minor differences in genotype diversity by province, with genotype 3 being most common in all provinces.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s HCV epidemic shows homogeneity across the provinces, and over time. HCV prevalence is strikingly persistent at high level, with no evidence for a decline over the last three decades. Scale up of HCV treatment and prevention is urgently needed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4403-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The contribution of injection drug use to hepatitis C virus transmission globally, regionally, and at country level: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

WHO aims to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. Injection drug use is an important risk factor for HCV transmission, but its contribution to country-level and global epidemics is unknown. We estimated the contribution of injection drug use to risk for HCV epidemics globally, regionally, and at country level.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic deterministic HCV transmission model to simulate country-level HCV epidemics among people who inject drugs and the general population. Each country's model was calibrated using country-specific data from UN datasets and systematic reviews on the prevalence of HCV and injection drug use. The population attributable fraction of HCV transmission associated with injection drug use was estimated-defined here as the percentage of HCV infections prevented if additional HCV transmission due to injection drug use was removed between 2018 and 2030.

FINDINGS

The model included 88 countries (85% of the global population). The model predicted 0·23% (95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·16-0·31) of the global population were injection drug users in 2017, and 8% (5-12) of prevalent HCV infections were among people who currently inject drugs. Globally, if the increased risk for HCV transmission among people who inject drugs was removed, an estimated 43% (95% CrI 25-67) of incident HCV infections would be prevented from 2018 to 2030, varying regionally. This population attributable fraction was higher in high-income countries (79%, 95% CrI 57-97) than in countries of low and middle income (38%, 24-64) and was associated with the percentage of a country's prevalent HCV infections that are among people who inject drugs.

INTERPRETATION

Unsafe injecting practices among people who inject drugs contribute substantially to incident HCV infections globally. Any intervention that can reduce HCV transmission among people who inject drugs will have a pronounced effect on country-level incidence of HCV.

FUNDING

None.

Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: mathematical modelling projections

OBJECTIVE

Direct-acting antivirals have opened an opportunity for controlling hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Pakistan, where 10% of the global infection burden is found. We aimed to evaluate the implications of five treatment programme scenarios for HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) in Pakistan.

DESIGN

An age-structured mathematical model was used to evaluate programme impact using epidemiological and programme indicators.

SETTING

Total Pakistan population.

PARTICIPANTS

Total Pakistan HCV-infected population.

INTERVENTIONS

HCV treatment programme scenarios from 2018 up to 2030.

RESULTS

By 2030 across the five HCV-TasP scenarios, 0.6-7.3 million treatments were administered, treatment coverage reached between 3.7% and 98.7%, prevalence of chronic infection reached 2.4%-0.03%, incidence reduction ranged between 41% and 99%, program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 7.2% and 98.5% and number of averted infections ranged between 126 221 and 750 547. Annual incidence rate reduction in the first decade of the programme was around 6%-18%. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged between 4.7-9.8, at a drug cost of about US$900. Cost of the programme by 2030, in the most ambitious elimination scenario, reached US$708 million. Stipulated WHO target for 2030 cannot be accomplished without scaling up treatment to 490 000 per year, and maintaining it for a decade.

CONCLUSION

HCV-TasP is a highly impactful and potent approach to control Pakistan's HCV epidemic and achieve elimination by 2030.

Characterizing the transitioning epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 in the USA: model-based predictions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a prevalent lifelong infection that appears to be undergoing an epidemiologic transition in the United States (US). Using an analytical approach, this study aimed to characterize HSV-1 transitioning epidemiology and estimate its epidemiologic indicators, past, present, and future.

METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was developed to describe HSV-1 transmission through oral and sexual modes of transmission. The model was fitted to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 1976-2016 data series.

RESULTS

HSV-1 seroprevalence was projected to decline from 61.5% in 1970 to 54.8% in 2018, 48.5% in 2050, and 42.0% in 2100. In < 3 decades, seroprevalence declined by > 30% for those aged 0-19 years, but < 5% for those aged > 60. Meanwhile, the number of new infections per year (oral and genital) was persistent at 2,762,000 in 1970, 2,941,000 in 2018, 2,933,000 in 2050, and 2,960,000 in 2100. Of this total, genital acquisitions contributed 252,000 infections in 1970, 410,000 in 2018, 478,000 in 2050, and 440,000 in 2100-a quarter of which are symptomatic with clinical manifestations. For those aged 15-49 years, nearly 25% of incident infections are genital. Most genital acquisitions (> 85%) were due to oral-to-genital transmission through oral sex, as opposed to genital-to-genital transmission through sexual intercourse.

CONCLUSION

HSV-1 epidemiology is undergoing a remarkable transition in the US, with less exposure in childhood and more in adulthood, and less oral but more genital acquisition. HSV-1 will persist as a widely prevalent infection, with ever-increasing genital disease burden.

Curbing the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan: the impact of scaling up treatment and prevention for achieving elimination

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global health strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis. We project the treatment and prevention requirements to achieve the WHO HCV elimination target of reducing HCV incidence by 80% and HCV-related mortality by 65% by 2030 in Pakistan, which has the second largest HCV burden worldwide.

Methods

We developed an HCV transmission model for Pakistan, and calibrated it to epidemiological data from a national survey (2007), surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and blood donor data. Current treatment coverage data came from expert opinion and published reports. The model projected the HCV burden, including incidence, prevalence and deaths through 2030, and estimated the impact of varying prevention and direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment interventions necessary for achieving the WHO HCV elimination targets.

Results

With no further treatment (currently ∼150 000 treated annually) during 2016–30, chronic HCV prevalence will increase from 3.9% to 5.1%, estimated annual incident infections will increase from 700 000 to 1 100 000, and 1 400 000 HCV-associated deaths will occur. To reach the WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030, 880 000 annual DAA treatments are required if prevention is not scaled up and no treatment prioritization occurs. By targeting treatment toward persons with cirrhosis (80% treated annually) and PWIDs (double the treatment rate of non-PWIDs), the required annual treatment number decreases to 750 000. If prevention activities also halve transmission risk, this treatment number reduces to 525 000 annually.

Conclusions

Substantial HCV prevention and treatment interventions are required to reach the WHO HCV elimination targets in Pakistan, without which Pakistan’s HCV burden will increase markedly.

Who to Test for Hepatitis C Virus in the Middle East and North Africa?: Pooled Analyses of 2,500 Prevalence Measures, Including 49 Million Tests

Expanding hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment coverage is challenged by limited testing and diagnosis. This study assessed the risk of exposure, for the Middle East and North Africa, by population, yields of testing, and program efficiency of testing strategies. A standardized and systematically assembled database of 2,542 HCV antibody prevalence studies on 49 million individuals was analyzed. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate pooled measures for risk of exposure, risk ratio (RR) of exposure, and yields of testing. Program expansion path curves were calculated to assess program efficiency. Countries clustered into two patterns: generalized versus concentrated epidemics. In generalized epidemics (Egypt and Pakistan) relative to general populations, RR of exposure was 6.8 for people who inject drugs (PWID), 6.7 for populations with liver conditions, and 5.0 for populations with high-risk health care exposures. In concentrated epidemics (remaining countries), corresponding RRs were 97.2, 45.1, and 22.2, respectively. In generalized epidemics, the number of tests needed to identify a chronic infection was 2.5 for PWID, 2.4 for populations with liver conditions, 2.7 for populations with high-risk health care exposures, and 14.2 for general populations. In concentrated epidemics, corresponding numbers were 2.8, 8.6, 5.1, and 222.2, respectively. Program expansion path curves demonstrated major gains in program efficiency by targeting specific populations. Risk of exposure varies immensely by population and shows a distinctive hierarchy, particularly in concentrated epidemics. Testing strategies can be much more efficient through population prioritization by risk of exposure. General population testing is not programmatically efficient in concentrated epidemics.

Hepatitis C transmission in young people who inject drugs: Insights using a dynamic model informed by state public health surveillance

Increasing injection of heroin and prescription opioids have led to increases in the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in US young adults since the early 2000s. How best to interrupt transmission and decrease HCV prevalence in young people who inject drugs (PWID) is uncertain. We developed an age-stratified ordinary differential equation HCV transmission model of PWID aged 15-64, which we fit to Michigan HCV surveillance data among young PWID aged 15-29. We used Latin hypercube sampling to fit to data under 10,000 plausible model parameterizations. We used the best-fitting 10% of simulations to predict the potential impact of primary (reducing injection initiation), secondary (increasing cessation, reducing injection partners, or reducing injection drug use relapse), and tertiary (HCV treatment) interventions (over the period 2017-2030) on acute and chronic HCV cases by the year 2030. Treating 3 per 100 current and former PWID per year could reduce chronic HCV by 27.3% (range: 18.7-30.3%) and acute HCV by 23.6% (range: 6.7-29.5%) by 2030 among PWID aged 15-29 if 90% are cured (i.e. achieved sustained virologic response [SVR] to treatment). Reducing the number of syringe sharing partners per year by 10% was predicted to reduce chronic HCV by 15.7% (range: 9.4-23.8%) and acute cases by 21.4% (range: 14.2-32.3%) among PWID aged 15-29 by 2030. In simulations of combinations of interventions, reducing injection initiation, syringe sharing, and relapse rates each by 10% while increasing cessation rates by 10% predicted a 27.7% (range: 18.0-39.7%) reduction in chronic HCV and a 38.4% (range: 28.3-53.3%) reduction in acute HCV. Our results highlight the need for HCV treatment among both current and former PWID and the scale up of both primary and secondary interventions to concurrently reduce HCV prevalence and incidence in Michigan.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Central Asia: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regression analyses

The objective was to delineate hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in countries of Central Asia (CA), specifically Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. A systematic review was conducted guided by the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook, and reported using PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models with inverse variance weighting. Random-effects meta-regression analyses were performed on general population studies. The systematic review identified a total of 208 HCV prevalence measures. No incidence or Turkmenistan studies were identified. Meta-analyses estimated HCV prevalence among the general population at 0.7% (95%CI: 0.7-0.8%) in Kazakhstan, 2.0% (95%CI: 1.7-2.4%) in Kyrgyzstan, 2.6% (95%CI: 1.7-3.6%) in Tajikistan, and 9.6 (95%CI: 5.8-14.2%) in Uzbekistan. Across CA, the pooled mean prevalence was 13.5% (95%CI: 10.9-16.4%) among non-specific clinical populations, 31.6% (95%CI: 25.8-37.7%) among populations with liver-related conditions, and 51.3% (95%CI: 46.9-55.6%) among people who inject drugs. Genotypes 1 (52.6%) and 3 (38.0%) were most frequent. Evidence was found for statistically-significant differences in prevalence by country, but not for a temporal decline in prevalence. CA is one of the most affected regions by HCV infection with Uzbekistan enduring one of the highest prevalence levels worldwide. Ongoing HCV transmission seems to be driven by injecting drug use and healthcare exposures.

Interleukin 28A.rs12980602 and interleukin 28B.rs8103142 genotypes could be protective against HCV infection among Egyptians

Previous studies showed that interleukin (IL)-28B gene polymorphisms were associated with hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection and treatment outcomes. We tested whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL-28A and IL-28B are associated with HCV infection among Egyptians with HCV genotype 4 infections. We enrolled 144 chronic HCV patients, 72 spontaneously resolved HCV subjects, and 69 healthy controls. Four SNPs in IL-28A and IL-28B genes (IL-28A.rs12980602, IL-28B.rs12979860, IL-28B.rs8099917, and IL-28B.rs8103142) were genotyped. The most frequent IL-28B haplotype "TCT" was significantly more frequent in HCV-infected subjects than in HCV negative subjects (62.2% vs. 48.6%, respectively; p = 0.005). The frequency of IL-28A.rs12980602 "T" allele was significantly higher than the "C" allele in healthy controls compared to HCV-infected subjects (p < 0.001) with the "TT" genotype significantly higher in healthy controls compared to HCV-infected subjects (p < 0.001) with no association with viral load (p = 0.11) among chronically infected subjects. The results, also, confirmed the previous role of IL-28B SNPs in predicting HCV infection outcome. Importantly, IL-28B.rs8099917 "TT" genotype was significantly associated with low viral load in HCV-infected subjects, while the remaining three SNPs did not. The three IL-28B SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium (D' > 0.68; r2 > 0.43) for all comparisons in HCV patients, while there was no linkage disequilibrium of IL-28A polymorphisms and the three IL-28B SNPs. In conclusion, IL-28A.rs12980602 and IL-28B.rs8103142 TT genotype could be protective against HCV infection. Also, IL-28B.rs12979860, IL-28B.rs8099917, and IL-28B.rs8103142 SNPs predicted the outcome of HCV infection among genotype-4-infected Egyptians. Moreover, IL-28B.rs8099917 SNP affected the viral load in chronic HCV patients.

Evaluation of five rapid diagnostic tests for detection of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (HCV): A step towards scale-up of HCV screening efforts in India

Objectives

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Early detection and curative treatment of HCV can reduce the risk of liver-related mortality and serve to prevent transmission of new infections. India is estimated to have about six million HCV infected individuals, most of whom are unaware of their infection status. Rapid diagnostic test kits (RDTs) could help identify HCV infected persons more expeditiously and thus availability of high performing, quality-assured RDTs is essential to scale-up HCV screening efforts. The present study was thus undertaken to evaluate the performance characteristics of five anti-HCV RDTs.

Methods

Five anti-HCV RDTs (Alere Truline, Flaviscreen, Advanced Quality, SD Bioline and OraQuick) were evaluated using two panels of known anti-HCV positive and negative samples; one characterized from Indian patient samples (n = 360) and other obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta (n = 100). Sensitivity, specificity, inter-observer agreement, test validity and operational characteristics of RDTs were assessed.

Results

The combined sensitivities across both panels for Alere Truline, Flaviscreen, Advanced Quality, SD Bioline and OraQuick RDTs were 99.4% (95%CI-96.6%-99.9%), 86.2% (95%CI-79.8%-91.1%), 96.2% (95%CI-91.9%-98.6%), 99.4% (95%CI-96.6%-99.9%) and 99.4% (95%CI-96.6%-99.9%) respectively. The overall specificities across both panels for all RDTs were 99.7%. The inter-observer agreement was 100% for Alere Truline, SD Bioline and OraQuick, while it was 99.5% and 98.6% with Advanced Quality and Flavicheck respectively. Discordant results were significantly associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity for both Advanced Quality and Flavicheck (p<0.001).

Conclusion

The present evaluation demonstrated that Alere Truline, SD Bioline and OraQuick RDTs had sensitivity and specificity in accordance with the acceptance criteria of the Drug Controller General, India, the national regulatory authority, had excellent inter-observer agreement and superior operational characteristics. Our findings suggest that certain HCV RDTs perform well and can be a useful tool in screening of HCV infections expeditiously.

Towards hepatitis C virus elimination: Egyptian experience, achievements and limitations

Worldwide, more than one million people die each year from hepatitis C virus (HCV) related diseases, and over 300 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis B or C. Egypt used to be on the top of the countries with heavy HCV burden. Some countries are making advances in elimination of HCV, yet multiple factors preventing progress; remain for the majority. These factors include lack of global funding sources for treatment, late diagnosis, poor data, and inadequate screening. Treatment of HCV in Egypt has become one of the top national priorities since 2007. Egypt started a national treatment program intending to provide cure for Egyptian HCV-infected patients. Mass HCV treatment program had started using Pegylated interferon and ribavirin between 2007 and 2014. Yet, with the development of highly-effective direct acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV, elimination of viral hepatitis has become a real possibility. The Egyptian National Committee for the Control of Viral Hepatitis did its best to provide Egyptian HCV patients with DAAs. Egypt adopted a strategy that represents a model of care that could help other countries with high HCV prevalence rate in their battle against HCV. This review covers the effects of HCV management in Egyptian real life settings and the outcome of different treatment protocols. Also, it deals with the current and future strategies for HCV prevention and screening as well as the challenges facing HCV elimination and the prospect of future eradication of HCV.

Hepatitis C virus infection spontaneous clearance: Has it been underestimated?

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance rate (f_clearance) is defined as the proportion of infected persons who will spontaneously clear their infection after acute infection. We aimed to estimate f_clearance using a novel approach that avoids limitations in existing estimates, and to clarify the link between f_clearance and HCV viremic rate-the latter being the proportion of RNA positivity among those antibody positive.

METHODS

A mathematical model was developed to describe HCV transmission. f_clearance was estimated by fitting the model to probability-based and nationally representative population-based data for Egypt (Egypt 2008 and Egypt 2015) and USA (NHANES A and NHANES B). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

f_clearance was estimated at 39.9% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 34.3%-46.4%) and 33.5% (95% UI: 29.2%-38.3%) for Egypt 2008 and Egypt 2015 data, respectively; and at 29.6% (23.0%-37.1%) and 39.9% (31.2%-51.0%) for NHANES A and NHANES B data, respectively. f_clearance was found related to HCV viremic rate through (approximately) the formula f_clearance=1.16 (1-HCV viremic rate). HCV viremic rate was higher with higher risk of HCV exposure. Robustness of results was demonstrated in uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

One-third of HCV-infected persons clear their infection spontaneously, higher than earlier estimates-the immune-system capacity to clear HCV infection may have been underestimated.

Characterizing the temporal evolution of the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan

Pakistan has the second largest number of HCV infections in the world. We assessed past, present and future levels and trends of the HCV epidemic in Pakistan. An age-structured mathematical model was developed and analysed to describe transmission dynamics over 1980-2050. The model was fitted to a nationally representative survey and a comprehensive database of systematically gathered HCV Ab prevalence data. HCV Ab and chronic infection prevalences peaked at 5.3% and 3.9% in 2000 but were projected to decline to 4.3% and 3.2% by 2017, 3.4% and 2.6% by 2030 and 2.6% and 1.9% by 2050, respectively. The number of chronically infected individuals was estimated at 6 663 906 in 2017 and was projected to peak at 6 665 900 in 2018 and decline to 6 372 100 in 2030 and 5 131 500 in 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 346 740 in 1992 but was projected to decline to 198 320 in 2017, 151 090 in 2030 and 98 120 in 2050. Incidence rate per 100 000 person-year peaked at 343 in 1988 but was projected to decline to 99 in 2017, 62 in 2030 and 36 in 2050. Prevalence and incidence varied by age, and the majority of new infections occurred in the 20-39 age group. Prevalence and incidence of HCV in Pakistan have been slowly declining for two decades-Pakistan is enduring a large epidemic that will persist for decades if not controlled. Nearly, 10% of global infections are in Pakistan, with about 200 000 additional infections every year. Rapid and mass scale-up of prevention and treatment programmes are critically needed.

Toward the elimination of hepatitis C in the United States

The emergence of effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents has reignited discussion over the potential for hepatitis C elimination in the United States. Eliminating hepatitis C will require a critical examination of technical feasibility, economic considerations, and social/political attention. Tremendous advancement has been made with the availability of sensitive diagnostic tests and highly effective DAAs capable of achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in more than 95% of patients. Eliminating hepatitis C also requires escalating existing surveillance networks to monitor for new epidemics. All preventive interventions such as clean syringe and needle exchange programs, safe injection sites, opioid substitution therapies, and mental health services need to be expanded. Although costs of DAAs have raised budget concerns for hepatitis C elimination, studies have shown that eliminating hepatitis C will produce a savings of up to 6.5 billion USD annually along with other intangible benefits such as increased work productivity and quality of life. Economic models and meta-analyses strongly suggest universal hepatitis C screening for all adults rather than just for birth cohort and high-risk populations. Social and political factors are at least as important as technical feasibility and economic considerations. Due to lack of promotion and public awareness, HCV elimination efforts continue to receive inadequate funding. Social stigma continues to impede meaningful policy changes. Eliminating hepatitis C is an attainable public health goal that will require intense collaboration and sustained public support. (Hepatology 2018;67:2449-2459).

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: systematic review and meta-analyses

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in Pakistan and estimate the pooled mean HCV antibody prevalence in different risk populations, we systematically reviewed all available records of HCV incidence and/or prevalence from 1989 to 2016, as informed by the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook. This systematic review was reported following the PRISMA guidelines. Populations were classified into six categories based on the risk of exposure to HCV infection. Meta-analyses were performed using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models with inverse variance weighting. The search identified one HCV incidence study and 341 prevalence measures/strata. Meta-analyses estimated the pooled mean HCV prevalence at 6.2% among the general population, 34.5% among high-risk clinical populations, 12.8% among populations at intermediate risk, 16.9% among special clinical populations, 55.9% among populations with liver-related conditions and 53.6% among people who inject drugs. Most reported risk factors in analytical epidemiologic studies related to healthcare procedures. Pakistan is enduring an HCV epidemic of historical proportions-one in every 20 Pakistanis is infected. HCV plays a major role in liver disease burden in this country, and HCV prevalence is high in all-risk populations. Most transmission appears to be driven by healthcare procedures. HCV treatment and prevention must become a national priority.