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Hassan WU, Nayak MA, Azam MF. Intensifying spatially compound heatwaves: Global implications to crop production and human population. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 932:172914. [PMID: 38697525 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2024] [Revised: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/05/2024]
Abstract
Recent research has provided crucial insights on regional heatwaves, including their causal mechanisms and changes under global warming. However, detailed research on global-scale spatially compound heatwaves (SCHs) (concurrent heatwaves over multiple regions) is lacking. Here, we find statistically significant teleconnections in heatwaves and show that the frequency of global-scale SCHs and their areal extent have increased significantly, which has led to 50 % increase in the population exposed to extreme heat stresses in the two most recent decades. Crop yields were reduced in most of the years of anomalous heatwaves, which often happen during El-Niños. The internal climate variability appears to significantly influence the inter-annual variability of regional and global heatwave extents. Insights gained here are critical in better quantifying heat stress risks inflicted on socioecological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Waqar Ul Hassan
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol, Indore, Madhya Pradesh 453552, India.
| | - Munir Ahmad Nayak
- Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India
| | - Mohd Farooq Azam
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Simrol, Indore, Madhya Pradesh 453552, India
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2
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Finocchiaro M, Médail F, Saatkamp A, Diadema K, Pavon D, Brousset L, Meineri E. Microrefugia and microclimate: Unraveling decoupling potential and resistance to heatwaves. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 924:171696. [PMID: 38485012 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2023] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
Microrefugia, defined as small areas maintaining populations of species outside their range margins during environmental extremes, are increasingly recognized for their role in conserving species in the face of climate change. Understanding their microclimatic dynamics becomes crucial with global warming leading to severe temperature and precipitation changes. This study investigates the phenomenon of short-term climatic decoupling within microrefugia and its implications for plant persistence in the Mediterranean region of southeastern France. We focus on microrefugia's ability to climatically disconnect from macroclimatic trends, examining temperature and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) dynamics in microrefugia, adjacent control plots, and weather stations. Our study encompasses both "normal" conditions and heatwave episodes to explore the role of microrefugia as thermal and moisture insulators during extreme events. Landscape attributes such as relative elevation, solar radiation, distance to streams, and vegetation height are investigated for their contribution to short-term decoupling. Our results demonstrate that microrefugia exhibit notable decoupling from macroclimatic trends. This effect is maintained during heatwaves, underscoring microrefugia's vital role in responding to climatic extremes. Importantly, microrefugia maintain lower VPD levels than their surroundings outside and during heatwaves, potentially mitigating water stress for plants. This study advances our understanding of microclimate dynamics within microrefugia and underscores their ecological importance for plant persistence in a changing climate. As heatwaves become more frequent and severe, our findings provide insights into the role of microrefugia in buffering but also decoupling against extreme climatic events and, more generally, against climate warming. This knowledge emphasizes the need to detect and protect existing microrefugia, as they can be integrated into conservation strategies and climate change adaptation plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie Finocchiaro
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France.
| | - Frédéric Médail
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France
| | - Arne Saatkamp
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France
| | - Katia Diadema
- Conservatoire botanique national méditerranéen, 34 avenue Gambetta, F-83400 Hyères, France
| | - Daniel Pavon
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France
| | - Lenka Brousset
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France
| | - Eric Meineri
- Aix Marseille Université, Université Avignon, CNRS, IRD, UMR IMBE, Marseille, France
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3
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Han L, Menzel L. Hydrological response to long-lasting dry spell at the southern edge of Siberian permafrost. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 922:171330. [PMID: 38428602 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
Regions experiencing prolonged dry spell exhibit intensified land-atmosphere coupling, exacerbating dry conditions within the hydrological system. Yet, understanding the propagation of these processes within the context of permafrost degradation remains limited. Our study investigates concurrent hydro-climate variations in the semi-arid Selenga River basin in the southern edge of Siberian permafrost. Driven by the natural atmospheric circulations, this region experienced two distinct dry spells during 1954-2013. It enables comparative investigations into the role of warming-induced permafrost degradations in drought dynamics under land-atmosphere coupling. Based on a comprehensive analysis of observed borehole data from 1996 to 2009 and empirical methods, we identify widespread permafrost loss in the semi-arid Selenga region. Such large-scale landscape changes may increase the infiltration of water from the surface to the subsurface hydrological system, and significantly influence the dry conditions in landsurface. First, significant decreasing trends are observed in river runoff (-0.30mm/yr, p < 0.05) and TWS (-3.16 mm/yr, p = 0.1), despite the absence of an apparent trend in annual precipitation (0.009 mm/yr, p = 0.9). Furthermore, in comparison to the first dry spell (1974-1983, 10yrs), the hydro-climatic variables show prolonged and more severe water deficits in runoff and TWS during the second dry spell (1996-2012, 17 yrs), with a reduced runoff-generation efficiency from precipitation. Such exacerbated dry conditions are coincident with amplified positive anomalies observed in air temperature, PET, as well as low-level geopotential height. These concurrent "hot-dry" phenomena indicate an enhanced land-atmospheric interaction within the hydro-climate system, which is further evidenced by the negative relationship between permafrost thawing index and runoff deficits (regression coefficient = -3.8, p < 0.001). As climate warming continues, the ongoing permafrost degradation could reinforce water scarcity, triggering an irreversible shift in water availability in water-scarce regions. Our findings could support freshwater management for regional food supply, human health, and ecosystem functions in the regions undergoing large-scale permafrost degradation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Han
- Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69120, Germany; Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam 14473, Germany.
| | - Lucas Menzel
- Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69120, Germany
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4
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Salvador C, Nieto R, Kapwata T, Wright CY, Reason C, Gimeno L, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS : ERL [WEB SITE] 2024; 19:054022. [PMID: 38855580 PMCID: PMC7616071 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3bd2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
South Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009-2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Coral Salvador
- Centro de Investigación Marinã, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Ourense, Spain
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Raquel Nieto
- Centro de Investigación Marinã, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Ourense, Spain
| | - Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg 2090, South Africa
- Department of Environmental Health, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
| | - Caradee Y Wright
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
| | - Chris Reason
- Oceanography Department, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Luis Gimeno
- Centro de Investigación Marinã, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Ourense, Spain
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Luo M, Wu S, Lau GNC, Pei T, Liu Z, Wang X, Ning G, Chan TO, Yang Y, Zhang W. Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadl1598. [PMID: 38552023 PMCID: PMC10980275 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl1598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/01/2024]
Abstract
Heatwaves are consecutive hot days with devastating impacts on human health and the environment. These events may evolve across both space and time, characterizing a spatiotemporally contiguous propagation pattern that has not been fully understood. Here, we track the spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves in both reanalysis datasets and model simulations and examine their moving patterns (i.e., moving distance, speed, and direction) in different continents and periods. Substantial changes in contiguous heatwaves have been identified from 1979 to 2020, with longer persistence, longer traveling distance, and slower propagation. These changes have been amplified since 1997, probably due to the weakening of eddy kinetic energy, zonal wind, and anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that longer-lived, longer-traveling, and slower-moving contiguous heatwaves will cause more devastating impacts on human health and the environment in the future if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and no effective measures are taken immediately. Our findings provide important implications for the adaption and mitigation of globally connected extreme heatwaves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Luo
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
- Institute of Environment, Energy, and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Sijia Wu
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540-6654, USA
| | - Tao Pei
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Zhen Liu
- Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences (EOAS) Thrust, Function Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaoyu Wang
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Guicai Ning
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Ting On Chan
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Yuanjian Yang
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322-4820, USA
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6
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Lian X, Peñuelas J, Ryu Y, Piao S, Keenan TF, Fang J, Yu K, Chen A, Zhang Y, Gentine P. Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:218-228. [PMID: 38172284 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02272-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xu Lian
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Josep Peñuelas
- CREAF, Barcelona, Spain
- CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Youngryel Ryu
- Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Shilong Piao
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Trevor F Keenan
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Jianing Fang
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Kailiang Yu
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Anping Chen
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Yao Zhang
- Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- Center for Learning the Earth with Artificial intelligence and Physics (LEAP), Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
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7
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Gouveia CM, Silva M, Russo A. The severity of dry and hot climate extremes and their related impacts on vegetation in Madagascar. iScience 2024; 27:108658. [PMID: 38155783 PMCID: PMC10753072 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.108658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Revised: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 12/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Madagascar is a low-income country, highly vulnerable to natural disasters affecting the small-scale subsistence farming system. Recently, climate change and environmental degradation have contributed to an intensification of food insecurity. We aim to monitor the link between dry and hot extremes on vegetation conditions, separated or concurrently, using satellite data, such as LST, ET, ET0, and FAPAR products from SEVIRI/MSG disseminated by LSASAF-EUMETSAT. The analysis was made for a long record from 2004 to 2021, focusing on the extreme seasons of 2020 and 2021. Results highlight the higher impact of combined dry and hot events when compared with isolated events, with a strong response of vegetation in the southern part of Madagascar. Results point to the added value of using the recent data records from geostationary satellites with high temporal resolution and updated in near real-time, to early detect, monitor, and characterize the impact of climate extremes on vegetation dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Célia M. Gouveia
- Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Lisboa, Portugal
- Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Mafalda Silva
- Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Ana Russo
- Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
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Pan X, Wang W, Shao Q, Wei J, Li H, Zhang F, Cao M, Yang L. Compound drought and heat waves variation and association with SST modes across China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 907:167934. [PMID: 37863227 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/22/2023]
Abstract
Compound drought and heatwaves (CDH) have garnered increasing attention because concurrent extreme events can exacerbate the harmful impacts caused by univariate extremes. However, various severities in CDH events and their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) variations in China remain little understood. Here, we accurately identify CDH events and multi-aspect of characteristics using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the excess heat factor (EHF) during the extended summer (May-September) of 1961-2017. The evolution of multifaceted characteristics of CDH and their association with SST variation are further explored. The results suggest that the number, frequency, duration and intensity of regional CDH events show heterogeneous spatial patterns, with a significant increasing trend. A consistent abrupt transition in CDH characteristics averaged over China occurred in the period of 1993-1996. Mild and moderate CDHs occur more commonly in Northwest and North China, whereas severe CDHs are mainly found in central and eastern regions. Mild and moderate CDHs are more susceptible to SST modes than severe CDH, and there are strong positive correlations between mild and moderate CDH characteristics and SST variations in the northwest and northern regions. Compared to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant role in the intensifications of mild and moderate CDH events. Regionally, the northwest and north have experienced longer, more frequent and severe CDH events during the positive phase of IOD. These findings reveal the divergent evolutions in CDH characteristics with various severities and inconsistent impacts of different SST modes on the compound events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolong Pan
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Weiguang Wang
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Quanxi Shao
- CSIRO Data 61, Australian Resources Research Centre, Bentley, WA, Australia
| | - Jia Wei
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Hongbin Li
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Fengyan Zhang
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Mingzhu Cao
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Liyan Yang
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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9
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Wei X, Huang S, Li J, Huang Q, Leng G, Liu D, Guo W, Zheng X, Bai Q. The negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167817. [PMID: 37838043 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Revised: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/16/2023]
Abstract
There are complex bidirectional feedback relationships among different types of droughts (e.g., meteorological and agricultural droughts). As agricultural drought intensifies, meteorological drought response to agricultural drought may be changed from negative to positive feedback. Nevertheless, the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics have remained unsolved. Herein, we proposed a new quantitative method to characterize the mutual feedback between meteorological drought and agricultural drought based on the vine copula function for the first time in this study. The negative-positive feedback transition threshold and the sensitivity of the feedback were quantified under certain drought conditions. In order to investigate the feedback relationship dynamics under a changing environment, the total study period was evenly divided into two stages: stage 1 (1982-1999) and stage 2 (2000-2018). Finally, the random forest method was used to explore the dominant factors on the transition threshold. Results indicate that: (1) the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds in August is generally lower than June and July in mainland China, the basin with large threshold is the Southwest River Basin; (2) the sensitivity of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought was higher in positive feedback than in negative feedback; (3) the transition thresholds of stage 2 was mostly reduced, while the feedback sensitivity of positive feedback was mostly increased; and (4) compared with the single factor, the land-meteorological coupling strength (the correlation between precipitation and soil moisture) dominants the negative-positive feedback transition threshold. This study sheds new insights into droughts feedback.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoting Wei
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
| | - Shengzhi Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China.
| | - Jianfeng Li
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Baptist University Road, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Qiang Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
| | - Guoyong Leng
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Dong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
| | - Wenwen Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
| | - Xudong Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
| | - Qingjun Bai
- State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, China
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10
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Qu LP, Chen J, Xiao J, De Boeck HJ, Dong G, Jiang SC, Hu YL, Wang YX, Shao CL. The complexity of heatwaves impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes: Factors, mechanisms and a multi-stage analytical approach. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 240:117495. [PMID: 37890820 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 10/23/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
Extreme heatwaves have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, and are expected to significantly influence carbon fluxes at regional scales across global terrestrial ecosystems. Nevertheless, accurate prediction of future heatwave impacts remains challenging due to a lack of a consistent comprehension of intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms. We approached this knowledge gap by analyzing the complexity factors in heatwave studies, including the methodology for determining heatwave events, divergent responses of individual ecosystem components at multiple ecological and temporal scales, and vegetation status and hydrothermal environment, among other factors. We found that heatwaves essentially are continuously changing compound environmental stress that can unfold into multiple chronological stages, and plant physiology and carbon flux responses differs in each of these stages. This approach offers a holistic perspective, recognizing that the impacts of heatwaves on ecosystems can be better understood when evaluated over time. These stages include instantaneous, post-heatwave, legacy, and cumulative effects, each contributing uniquely to the overall impact on the ecosystem carbon cycle. Next, we investigated the importance of the timing of heatwaves and the possible divergent consequences caused by different annual heatwave patterns. Finally, a conceptual framework is proposed to establish a united foundation for the study and comprehension of the consequences of heatwaves on ecosystem carbon cycle. This instrumental framework will assist in guiding regional assessments of heatwave impacts, shedding light on the underlying mechanisms responsible for the varied responses of terrestrial ecosystems to specific heatwave events, which are imperative for devising efficient adaptation and mitigation approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lu-Ping Qu
- College of JunCao Science and Ecology, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China.
| | - Jiquan Chen
- Center for Global Change & Earth Observations (CGCEO), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA.
| | - Jingfeng Xiao
- Earth Systems Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, 03824, USA.
| | - Hans J De Boeck
- Research Group of Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2610, Wilrijk, Belgium.
| | - Gang Dong
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, National Hulunber Grassland Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China; School of Life Science, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.
| | | | - Ya-Lin Hu
- College of JunCao Science and Ecology, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China.
| | - Yi-Xuan Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, National Hulunber Grassland Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
| | - Chang-Liang Shao
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, National Hulunber Grassland Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
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11
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Wang M, Menzel L, Jiang S, Ren L, Xu CY, Cui H. Evaluation of flash drought under the impact of heat wave events in southwestern Germany. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 904:166815. [PMID: 37673262 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2023] [Revised: 08/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Flash droughts are a recently recognised type of extreme drought defined by the rapid onset and strong intensification of drought conditions. Our understanding of flash drought processes under the influence of heat waves needs to be improved in the context of global warming. Here, we applied a physically based hydrological model, i.e., TRAnspiration and INterception (TRAIN) model to simulate root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and evapotranspiration (ET) with daily time steps and at a 1 × 1 km resolution to identify and assess flash droughts. Two states, Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), located in southwestern Germany, were selected as the study areas. Three datasets, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) dataset, ERA5-Land (land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis) dataset, and SMAP-L4 (Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4) dataset, were selected to evaluate the TRAIN simulated RZSM and ET from 1961 to 2016. The results show that the simulated RZSM had the highest correlation with the ERA5-Land products, followed by SMAP-L4 and GLEAM, with regional average correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.765, 0.762, and 0.746, respectively. The CC of the TRAIN simulated ET with ERA5-Land and GLEAM ET were 0.828 and 0.803, respectively. The results of the trend analyses showed a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of flash droughts and heat waves in both the BW and RP states. A comparative analysis revealed that the mean duration and onset speed of flash droughts in BW (RP) without heat waves were 10.42 (10.67) pentads and 19.69th percentile/pentad (17.16th percentile/pentad), respectively, while associated with heat waves they were 8.95 (9.53) pentads and 21.77th percentile/pentad (19.91th percentile/pentad), respectively. This indicates that flash droughts under the influence of heat waves are generally shorter in duration but faster in occurrence. The findings of this study have important implications for flash drought assessment, monitoring, and mitigation under the impact of heat waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Menghao Wang
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Lucas Menzel
- Department of Geography, Professorship in Hydrology and Climatology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg D-69120, Germany.
| | - Shanhu Jiang
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Liliang Ren
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-Science, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Chong-Yu Xu
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Hao Cui
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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12
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Yuan R, Li F, Ye R. Global diagnosis of land-atmosphere coupling based on water isotopes. Sci Rep 2023; 13:21319. [PMID: 38044338 PMCID: PMC10694138 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-48694-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) plays a significant role in weather and climate and is related to droughts and heatwaves. We propose a simple and efficient LAC diagnosis method based on the analysis of water isotopes in atmospheric water vapour and precipitation. Using the method, we identify the primary LAC hotspot regions of the globe and reveal the seasonality of LAC strength. We find that LAC strength exhibits a relationship with latitude. Low latitudes present stronger LAC strength and contribute more significantly to the overall LAC area compared to boreal middle and high latitudes. It's important to note that LAC primarily manifests in the troposphere and is detected in the lower stratosphere of low latitudes, with limited influence observed in the stratosphere. However, the impact of LAC is noticeable in the upper stratosphere in boreal middle and high latitudes. Moreover, the seasonality of LAC strength is pronounced. On a global scale, the season with the strongest LAC is boreal autumn in the Northern Hemisphere but boreal summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Notably, this pattern does not exhibit a seesaw effect between the two hemispheres. Our isotope-based LAC diagnosis method captures the major LAC hotspots found in previous work and validates the seasonality of LAC within these hotspots. This substantiates the reliability and effectiveness of our isotope-based approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruiqiang Yuan
- School of Environment and Resource Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.
| | - Fei Li
- School of Environment and Resource Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China
| | - Ruyu Ye
- School of Environment and Resource Sciences, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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13
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Han J, Singh VP. A review of widely used drought indices and the challenges of drought assessment under climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1438. [PMID: 37943470 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12062-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/28/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Under climate change, drought assessment, which can address nonstationarity in drought indicators and anthropogenic implications, is required to mitigate drought impacts. However, the development of drought indices for a reliable drought assessment is a challenging task in the warming climate. Thus, this study discusses factors that should be considered in developing drought indices in changing climate. Inconsistent drought assessment can be obtained, depending on the baseline period defined in developing drought indices. Therefore, the baseline period should represent the contemporary climate but should also correspond to long enough observations for stable parameter estimation. The importance of accurate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for drought indices becomes higher under a warming climate. Although the Penman-Monteith method yields accurate PET values, depending on the climate and vegetation cover, other suitable PET formulas, such as the Hargreaves method, with fewer hydrometeorological data can be used. Since a single drought index is not enough to properly monitor drought evolution, a method that can objectively combine multiple drought indices is required. Besides, quantifying anthropogenic impacts, which can add more uncertainty, on drought assessment is also important to adapt to the changing drought conditions and minimize human-induced drought. Drought is expected to occur more frequently with more severe, longer, and larger areal extent under global warming, since a more arid background, which climate change will provide, intensifies land-atmosphere feedback, leading to the desiccation of land and drying atmosphere. Thus, an accurate drought assessment, based on robust drought indices, is required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeongwoo Han
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA.
| | - Vijay P Singh
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA
- Zachary Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA
- National Water & Energy Center, UAE University, AL Ain, United Arab Emirates
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14
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Giardina F, Gentine P, Konings AG, Seneviratne SI, Stocker BD. Diagnosing evapotranspiration responses to water deficit across biomes using deep learning. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2023; 240:968-983. [PMID: 37621238 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Abstract
Accounting for water limitation is key to determining vegetation sensitivity to drought. Quantifying water limitation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) is challenged by the heterogeneity of vegetation types, climate zones and vertically along the rooting zone. Here, we train deep neural networks using flux measurements to study ET responses to progressing drought conditions. We determine a water stress factor (fET) that isolates ET reductions from effects of atmospheric aridity and other covarying drivers. We regress fET against the cumulative water deficit, which reveals the control of whole-column moisture availability. We find a variety of ET responses to water stress. Responses range from rapid declines of fET to 10% of its water-unlimited rate at several savannah and grassland sites, to mild fET reductions in most forests, despite substantial water deficits. Most sensitive responses are found at the most arid and warm sites. A combination of regulation of stomatal and hydraulic conductance and access to belowground water reservoirs, whether in groundwater or deep soil moisture, could explain the different behaviors observed across sites. This variety of responses is not captured by a standard land surface model, likely reflecting simplifications in its representation of belowground water storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Giardina
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland
| | - Pierre Gentine
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA
- Center for Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP), Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA
| | - Alexandra G Konings
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
| | - Benjamin D Stocker
- Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, CH-8092, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland
- Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Falkenplatz 16, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
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15
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Wolf S, Paul-Limoges E. Drought and heat reduce forest carbon uptake. Nat Commun 2023; 14:6217. [PMID: 37802990 PMCID: PMC10558509 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41854-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/08/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Wolf
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Physics of Environmental Systems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
| | - Eugénie Paul-Limoges
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Forest Dynamics, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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16
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Kim Y, Evans JP, Sharma A. Correcting biases in regional climate model boundary variables for improved simulation of high-impact compound events. iScience 2023; 26:107696. [PMID: 37680461 PMCID: PMC10480633 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 06/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Although climate models have been used to assess compound events, the combination of multiple hazards or drivers poses uncertainties because of the systemic biases present. Here, we investigate multivariate bias correction for correcting systemic bias in the boundaries that form the inputs of regional climate models (RCMs). This improves the representation of physical relationships among variables, essential for accurate characterization of compound events. We address four types of compound events that result from eight different hazards. The results show that while the RCM simulations presented here exhibit similar performance for some event types, the multivariate bias correction broadly improves the RCM representation of compound events compared to no correction or univariate correction, particularly for coincident high temperature and high precipitation. The RCM with uncorrected boundaries tends to produce a negative bias in the return period of these events, suggesting a tendency to over-simulate compound events with respect to observed events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youngil Kim
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Jason P. Evans
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ashish Sharma
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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17
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Shekhar A, Hörtnagl L, Buchmann N, Gharun M. Long-term changes in forest response to extreme atmospheric dryness. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:5379-5396. [PMID: 37381105 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023]
Abstract
Atmospheric dryness, as indicated by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), has a strong influence on forest greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. In this study, we used long-term (10-30 years) net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measurements from 60 forest sites across the world (1003 site-years) to quantify long-term changes in forest NEP resistance and NEP recovery in response to extreme atmospheric dryness. We tested two hypotheses: first, across sites differences in NEP resistance and NEP recovery of forests will depend on both the biophysical characteristics (i.e., leaf area index [LAI] and forest type) of the forest as well as on the local meteorological conditions of the site (i.e., mean VPD of the site), and second, forests experiencing an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of extreme dryness will show an increasing trend in NEP resistance and NEP recovery over time due to emergence of long-term ecological stress memory. We used a data-driven statistical learning approach to quantify NEP resistance and NEP recovery over multiple years. Our results showed that forest types, LAI, and median local VPD conditions explained over 50% of variance in both NEP resistance and NEP recovery, with drier sites showing higher NEP resistance and NEP recovery compared to sites with less atmospheric dryness. The impact of extreme atmospheric dryness events on NEP lasted for up to 3 days following most severe extreme events in most forests, indicated by an NEP recovery of less than 100%. We rejected our second hypothesis as we found no consistent relationship between trends of extreme VPD with trends in NEP resistance and NEP recovery across different forest sites, thus an increase in atmospheric dryness as it is predicted might not increase the resistance or recovery of forests in terms of NEP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ankit Shekhar
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Lukas Hörtnagl
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Nina Buchmann
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Mana Gharun
- Institute of Landscape Ecology, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
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18
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Zhang Y, Zhang Y, Lian X, Zheng Z, Zhao G, Zhang T, Xu M, Huang K, Chen N, Li J, Piao S. Enhanced dominance of soil moisture stress on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands. Natl Sci Rev 2023; 10:nwad108. [PMID: 37389136 PMCID: PMC10306363 DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwad108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Revised: 04/16/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite the mounting attention being paid to vegetation growth and their driving forces for water-limited ecosystems, the relative contributions of atmospheric and soil moisture dryness stress on vegetation growth are an ongoing debate. Here we comprehensively compare the impacts of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil water content (SWC) on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands during 1982-2014. The analysis indicates a gradual decoupling between atmospheric dryness and soil dryness over this period, as the former has expanded faster than the latter. Moreover, the VPD-SWC relation and VPD-greenness relation are both non-linear, while the SWC-greenness relation is near-linear. The loosened coupling between VPD and SWC, the non-linear correlations among VPD-SWC-greenness and the expanded area extent in which SWC acts as the dominant stress factor all provide compelling evidence that SWC is a more influential stressor than VPD on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands. In addition, a set of 11 Earth system models projected a continuously growing constraint of SWC stress on vegetation growth towards 2100. Our results are vital to dryland ecosystems management and drought mitigation in Eurasia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | | | - Xu Lian
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
- Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Zhoutao Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Guang Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
| | - Minjie Xu
- College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
| | - Ke Huang
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 1350, Denmark
| | - Ning Chen
- Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
| | - Ji Li
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
- Department of Geography, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
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19
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Simanjuntak C, Gaiser T, Ahrends HE, Ceglar A, Singh M, Ewert F, Srivastava AK. Impact of climate extreme events and their causality on maize yield in South Africa. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12462. [PMID: 37528122 PMCID: PMC10393995 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38921-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Extreme climate events can have a significant negative impact on maize productivity, resulting in food scarcity and socioeconomic losses. Thus, quantifying their effect is needed for developing future adaptation and mitigation strategies, especially for countries relying on maize as a staple crop, such as South Africa. While several studies have analyzed the impact of climate extremes on maize yields in South Africa, little is known on the quantitative contribution of combined extreme events to maize yield variability and the causality link of extreme events. This study uses existing stress indices to investigate temporal and spatial patterns of heatwaves, drought, and extreme precipitation during maize growing season between 1986/87 and 2015/16 for South Africa provinces and at national level and quantifies their contribution to yield variability. A causal discovery algorithm was applied to investigate the causal relationship among extreme events. At the province and national levels, heatwaves and extreme precipitation showed no significant trend. However, drought severity increased in several provinces. The modified Combined Stress Index (CSIm) model showed that the maize yield nationwide was associated with drought events (explaining 25% of maize yield variability). Heatwaves has significant influence on maize yield variability (35%) in Free State. In North West province, the maize yield variability (46%) was sensitive to the combination of drought and extreme precipitation. The causal analysis suggests that the occurrence of heatwaves intensified drought, while a causal link between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was not detected. The presented findings provide a deeper insight into the sensitivity of yield data to climate extremes and serve as a basis for future studies on maize yield anomalies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Simanjuntak
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115, Bonn, Germany.
| | - Thomas Gaiser
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115, Bonn, Germany
| | - Hella Ellen Ahrends
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Koetilantie 5, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Andrej Ceglar
- Climate Change Centre of the European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314, Frankfurt Am Main, Germany
| | - Manmeet Singh
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
| | - Frank Ewert
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115, Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Amit Kumar Srivastava
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115, Bonn, Germany
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20
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Tripathy KP, Mukherjee S, Mishra AK, Mann ME, Williams AP. Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2219825120. [PMID: 37399379 PMCID: PMC10334742 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2219825120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kumar P. Tripathy
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC29634
| | - Sourav Mukherjee
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC29634
| | - Ashok K. Mishra
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC29634
| | - Michael E. Mann
- Department of Earth & Environmental Science University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA19104-6316
| | - A. Park Williams
- Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA90095
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY10096
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21
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Marothia D, Kaur N, Jhamat C, Sharma I, Pati PK. Plant lectins: Classical molecules with emerging roles in stress tolerance. Int J Biol Macromol 2023:125272. [PMID: 37301347 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2023.125272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 06/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Biotic and abiotic stresses impose adverse effects on plant's development, growth, and production. For the past many years, researchers are trying to understand the stress induced responses in plants and decipher strategies to produce stress tolerant crops. It has been demonstrated that molecular networks encompassing an array of genes and functional proteins play a key role in generating responses to combat different stresses. Newly, there has been a resurgence of interest to explore the role of lectins in modulating various biological responses in plants. Lectins are naturally occurring proteins that form reversible linkages with their respective glycoconjugates. To date, several plant lectins have been recognized and functionally characterized. However, their involvement in stress tolerance is yet to be comprehensively analyzed in greater detail. The availability of biological resources, modern experimental tools, and assay systems has provided a fresh impetus for plant lectin research. Against this backdrop, the present review provides background information on plant lectins and recent knowledge on their crosstalks with other regulatory mechanisms, which play a remarkable role in plant stress amelioration. It also highlights their versatile role and suggests that adding more information to this under-explored area will usher in a new era of crop improvement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deeksha Marothia
- Department of Biotechnology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India
| | - Navdeep Kaur
- Department of Biotechnology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India
| | - Chetna Jhamat
- Department of Biotechnology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India
| | - Ipsa Sharma
- Department of Biotechnology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India
| | - Pratap Kumar Pati
- Department of Biotechnology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India; Department of Agriculture, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143005, Punjab, India.
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22
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Coughlan de Perez E, Ganapathi H, Masukwedza GIT, Griffin T, Kelder T. Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2023; 6:56. [PMID: 38665270 PMCID: PMC11041665 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00361-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today's climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin Coughlan de Perez
- Feinstein International Center, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, USA
- Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Hamsa Ganapathi
- Agriculture, Food, and Environment, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, USA
| | - Gibbon I. T. Masukwedza
- University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
- Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Timothy Griffin
- Agriculture, Food, and Environment, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, USA
| | - Timo Kelder
- Climate Adaptation Services (CAS), Bussum, The Netherlands
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23
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Li H, Keune J, Smessaert F, Nieto R, Gimeno L, Miralles DG. Land-atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2023; 6:51. [PMID: 38665267 PMCID: PMC11041704 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00375-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Global crop yields are highly dependent on climate variability, with the largest agricultural failures frequently occurring during extremely dry and hot years. Land-atmosphere feedbacks are thought to play a crucial role in agricultural productivity during such events: precipitation deficits cause soil desiccation, which reduces evaporation and enhances sensible heating from the land surface; the amplified local temperatures and moisture deficits can be detrimental to crop yield. While this impact of local land-atmosphere feedbacks on agricultural productivity has recently been reported, the dependency of crop yields on upwind regions remains understudied. Here, we determine the spatio-temporal origins of moisture and heat over the world's largest 75 rainfed breadbaskets, and illustrate the crop yield dependency on upwind regions. Further, we disentangle the role of local and upwind land-atmosphere interactions on anomalous moisture and heat transport during low-yield years. Our results indicate that crop failure increases on average by around 40% when both upwind and local land-atmosphere feedbacks cause anomalously low moisture and high heat transport into the breadbaskets. The impact of upwind land-atmosphere feedbacks on productivity deficits is the largest in water-limited regions, which show an increased dependency on moisture supply from upwind land areas. Better understanding these upwind-downwind dependencies in agricultural regions can help develop adaptation strategies to prevent food shortage in a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Li
- Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Jessica Keune
- Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Femke Smessaert
- Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Raquel Nieto
- Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
| | - Luis Gimeno
- Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
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24
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Xu H, Zhang Z, Oren R, Wu X. Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:1890-1904. [PMID: 36655411 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 01/07/2023] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hang Xu
- Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, CNERN, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiqiang Zhang
- Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, CNERN, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
| | - Ram Oren
- Nicholas School of the Environment and Pratt School of Engineering, Duke University, North Carolina, Durham, USA
- Department of Forest Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Xiaoyun Wu
- Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, CNERN, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
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25
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Zhang X, Zhou T, Zhang W, Ren L, Jiang J, Hu S, Zuo M, Zhang L, Man W. Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1690. [PMID: 36973258 PMCID: PMC10042826 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37309-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
During summer 2021, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave with record-breaking high temperatures associated with a strong anomalous high-pressure system, i.e., a heat dome. Here, we use a flow analog method and find that the heat dome over the WNA can explain half of the magnitude of the anomalous temperature. The intensities of hot extremes associated with similar heat dome-like atmospheric circulations increase faster than background global warming in both historical change and future projection. Such relationship between hot extremes and mean temperature can be partly explained by soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. The probability of 2021-like heat extremes is projected to increase due to the background warming, the enhanced soil moisture-atmosphere feedback and the weak but still significantly increased probability of the heat dome-like circulation. The population exposure to such heat extremes will also increase. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C (3 °C) would lead to an avoided impact of 53% (89%) of the increase in population exposure to 2021-like heat extremes under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xing Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Tianjun Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Wenxia Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Liwen Ren
- China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Jie Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Shuai Hu
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Meng Zuo
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Lixia Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Wenmin Man
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
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26
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Ramos AM, Russo A, DaCamara CC, Nunes S, Sousa P, Soares PMM, Lima MM, Hurduc A, Trigo RM. The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal. iScience 2023; 26:106141. [PMID: 36915678 PMCID: PMC10006635 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities that occurred in June and October events. The local insurance sector declared it was the costliest natural disaster in Portugal with payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, the 2017 October event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha of burnt area and 50 fatalities is analyzed from a compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress of vegetation in October 2017. In addition, on 15 October 2017, two other major drivers played a critical role: 1) the passage of hurricane Ophelia off the Coast of Portugal, responsible for exceptional meteorological conditions and 2) the human agent, responsible for an extremely elevated number of negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers led to the uncontrolled wildfires observed on 15 October.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre M Ramos
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Building 435, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Karlsruhe, Germany.,Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ana Russo
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Carlos C DaCamara
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Silvia Nunes
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Pedro Sousa
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.,Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), 1749-077 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - P M M Soares
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Miguel M Lima
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Alexandra Hurduc
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.,Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-919, Brazil
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27
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Zhou S, Yu B, Zhang Y. Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eabo1638. [PMID: 36897946 PMCID: PMC10005174 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abo1638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sha Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Correspondence author.
| | - Bofu Yu
- School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Yao Zhang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
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28
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Hsu H, Dirmeyer PA. Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO 2. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1162. [PMID: 36859397 PMCID: PMC9977744 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36794-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
When soil moisture (SM) content falls within a transitional regime between dry and wet conditions, it controls evaporation, affecting atmospheric heat and humidity. Accordingly, different SM regimes correspond to different gears of land-atmosphere coupling, affecting climate. Determining patterns of SM regimes and their future evolution is imperative. Here, we examine global SM regime distributions from ten climate models. Under increasing CO2, the range of SM extends into unprecedented coupling regimes in many locations. Solely wet regime areas decline globally by 15.9%, while transitional regimes emerge in currently humid areas of the tropics and high latitudes. Many semiarid regions spend more days in the transitional regime and fewer in the dry regime. These imply that a larger fraction of the world will evolve to experience multiple gears of land-atmosphere coupling, with the strongly coupled transitional regime expanding the most. This could amplify future climate sensitivity to land-atmosphere feedbacks and land management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hsin Hsu
- George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
| | - Paul A. Dirmeyer
- grid.22448.380000 0004 1936 8032George Mason University, Fairfax, VA USA ,grid.22448.380000 0004 1936 8032Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA USA
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29
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Chen Z, Wang W, Cescatti A, Forzieri G. Climate-driven vegetation greening further reduces water availability in drylands. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:1628-1647. [PMID: 36524280 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change alters surface water availability (WA; precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P - ET) and consequently impacts agricultural production and societal water needs, leading to increasing concerns on the sustainability of water use. Although the direct effects of climate change on WA have long been recognized and assessed, indirect climate effects occurring through adjustments in terrestrial vegetation are more subtle and not yet fully quantified. To address this knowledge gap, here we investigate the interplay between climate-induced changes in leaf area index (LAI) and ET and quantify its ultimate effect on WA during the period 1982-2016 at the global scale, using an ensemble of data-driven products and land surface models. We show that ~44% of the global vegetated land has experienced a significant increase in growing season-averaged LAI and climate change explains 33.5% of this greening signal. Such climate-induced greening has enhanced ET of 0.051 ± 0.067 mm year-2 (mean ± SD), further amplifying the ongoing increase in ET directly driven by variations in climatic factors over 36.8% of the globe, and thus exacerbating the decline in WA prominently in drylands. These findings highlight the indirect impact of positive feedbacks in the land-climate system on the decline of WA, and call for an in-depth evaluation of these phenomena in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zefeng Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | - Weiguang Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
- Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Giovanni Forzieri
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
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30
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Röthlisberger M, Papritz L. Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale. NATURE GEOSCIENCE 2023; 16:210-216. [PMID: 36920151 PMCID: PMC10005943 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01126-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves are among the deadliest climate hazards. Yet the relative importance of the physical processes causing their near-surface temperature anomalies (𝑇')-advection of air from climatologically warmer regions, adiabatic warming in subsiding air and diabatic heating-is still a matter of debate. Here we quantify the importance of these processes by evaluating the 𝑇' budget along air-parcel backward trajectories. We first show that the extreme near-surface 𝑇' during the June 2021 heat wave in western North America was produced primarily by diabatic heating and, to a smaller extent, by adiabatic warming. Systematically decomposing 𝑇' during the hottest days of each year (TX1day events) in 1979-2020 globally, we find strong geographical variations with a dominance of advection over mid-latitude oceans, adiabatic warming near mountain ranges and diabatic heating over tropical and subtropical land masses. In many regions, however, TX1day events arise from a combination of these processes. In the global mean, TX1day anomalies form along trajectories over roughly 60 h and 1,000 km, although with large regional variability. This study thus reveals inherently non-local and regionally distinct formation pathways of hot extremes, quantifies the crucial factors determining their magnitude and enables new quantitative ways of climate model evaluation regarding hot extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lukas Papritz
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
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31
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Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability. Nat Commun 2023; 14:498. [PMID: 36717585 PMCID: PMC9886942 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36207-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Quantifying the resilience of vegetated ecosystems is key to constraining both present-day and future global impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Here we apply both empirical and theoretical resilience metrics to remotely-sensed vegetation data in order to examine the role of water availability and variability in controlling vegetation resilience at the global scale. We find a concise global relationship where vegetation resilience is greater in regions with higher water availability. We also reveal that resilience is lower in regions with more pronounced inter-annual precipitation variability, but find less concise relationships between vegetation resilience and intra-annual precipitation variability. Our results thus imply that the resilience of vegetation responds differently to water deficits at varying time scales. In view of projected increases in precipitation variability, our findings highlight the risk of ecosystem degradation under ongoing climate change.
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32
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Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework. Nat Commun 2023; 14:277. [PMID: 36650142 PMCID: PMC9845298 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35748-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, and temporal scale of causal linkages between dry and hot extremes remain underexplored. Here using the concept of system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extreme event networks and quantify the magnitude, temporal-scale, and physical drivers of cascading effects (CEs) of drying-on-heating and vice-versa, across the globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extremes generally coincide. However, the CEs differ strongly in their timescale of interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, and sensitivity to changes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and background aridity. The CE of drying-on-heating in the hotspot locations reaches its peak immediately driven by the compounding influence of vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. In contrast, the CE of heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated by concurrent changes in potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and net-radiation with the effect of vapor pressure deficit being strongly controlled by ecosystem isohydricity and background aridity. Our results help improve our understanding of the causal linkages and the predictability of compound extremes and related impacts.
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33
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Simolo C, Corti S. Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7930. [PMID: 36566208 PMCID: PMC9790021 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35571-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 12/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Heat extremes have grown disproportionately since the advent of industrialization and are expected to intensify further under unabated greenhouse warming, spreading unevenly across the globe. However, amplification mechanisms are highly uncertain because of the complex interplay between regional physical responses to human forcing and the statistical properties of atmospheric temperatures. Here, focusing on the latter, we explain how and to what extent the leading moments of thermal distributions sway the future trajectories of heat extremes. Crucially, we show that daily temperature variability is the key to understanding global patterns of change in the frequency and severity of the extremes and their exacerbation in many places. Variability accounts for at least half of the highly differential regional sensitivities and may well outweigh the background warming. These findings provide fundamental insights for assessing the reliability of climate models and improving their future projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Simolo
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, I-40129, Bologna, Italy.
| | - Susanna Corti
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, I-40129, Bologna, Italy.
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34
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Wang Y, Yuan X. Land-atmosphere coupling speeds up flash drought onset. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 851:158109. [PMID: 35987240 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2022] [Revised: 08/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Flash drought is a type of drought with rapid onset and great destructiveness, which poses a serious threat to agriculture, ecosystem, and environment without sufficient early warning. The rapid onset is a unique feature that distinguishes flash drought from conventional dry conditions, but its underlying mechanism remains unclear. With the 42-years reanalysis data, we compared the differences in convective triggering potential and atmospheric humidity indices between flash drought onset and conventional dry conditions over China. We found that the dry land-atmospheric coupling can speed up flash drought onset by suppressing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Results show that the increase of sensible heat transport during flash drought onset can intensify the heating of atmosphere, and enhance the lifting condensation level deficit which efficiently inhibits the convective precipitation. Meanwhile, the atmospheric drying significantly increases the evapotranspiration demand and decreases soil moisture, thus speeds up the drought onset. In this regard, the drier land surface makes the atmosphere drier through land-atmosphere coupling, and the rapid drought onset can be maintained via the positive feedback. Although the contribution of precipitation deficit averaged over China is 92 %, the evapotranspiration excess is also critical for increasing the onset speed especially over South China where the flash drought hotspot exists. With the contribution of evapotranspiration increased by about 26 %, the flash drought onset speed over China almost doubled. This study highlights the importance of dry land-atmospheric coupling for speeding up flash drought onset and provides insights for flash drought diagnosis and prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yumiao Wang
- Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China; School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xing Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China; School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China.
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35
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Adeyeri OE, Zhou W, Wang X, Zhang R, Laux P, Ishola KA, Usman M. The trend and spatial spread of multisectoral climate extremes in CMIP6 models. Sci Rep 2022; 12:21000. [PMID: 36470927 PMCID: PMC9722700 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-25265-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change could exacerbate extreme climate events. This study investigated the global and continental representations of fourteen multisectoral climate indices during the historical (1979-2014), near future (2025-2060) and far future (2065-2100) periods under two emission scenarios, in eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) General Circulation Models (GCM). We ranked the GCMs based on five metrics centred on their temporal and spatial performances. Most models followed the reference pattern during the historical period. MPI-ESM ranked best in replicating the daily precipitation intensity (DPI) in Africa, while CANESM5 GCM ranked first in heatwave index (HI), maximum consecutive dry days (MCCD). Across the different continents, MPI-LR GCM performed best in replicating the DPI, except in Africa. The model ranks could provide valuable information when selecting appropriate GCM ensembles when focusing on climate extremes. A global evaluation of the multi-index causal effects for the various indices shows that the dry spell total length (DSTL) was the most crucial index modulating the MCCD for all continents. Also, most indices exhibited a positive climate change signal from the historical to the future. Therefore, it is crucial to design appropriate strategies to strengthen resilience to extreme climatic events while mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oluwafemi E Adeyeri
- School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau (CORE), Hong Kong, China
| | - Wen Zhou
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Xuan Wang
- School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Ruhua Zhang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Patrick Laux
- Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Campus Alpine, Germany
| | - Kazeem A Ishola
- Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
| | - Muhammad Usman
- School of Engineering, Faculty of Science Engineering and Built Environment, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
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36
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Jiménez‐Esteve B, Kornhuber K, Domeisen DIV. Heat Extremes Driven by Amplification of Phase-Locked Circumglobal Waves Forced by Topography in an Idealized Atmospheric Model. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022; 49:e2021GL096337. [PMID: 36583183 PMCID: PMC9787382 DOI: 10.1029/2021gl096337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2021] [Revised: 09/16/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves are persistent temperature extremes associated with devastating impacts on human societies and ecosystems. In the midlatitudes, amplified quasi-stationary Rossby waves have been identified as a key mechanism for heatwave occurrence. Amplified waves with preferred longitudinal locations lead to concurrent extremes in specific locations. It is therefore important to identify the essential components in the climate system that contribute to phase-locking of wave patterns. Here, we investigate the role of dry atmospheric dynamics and topography in causing concurrent heatwaves by using an idealized general circulation model. Topography is included in the model experiments as a Gaussian mountain. Our results show that amplified Rossby waves exhibit clear phase-locking behavior and a decrease in the zonal phase speed when a large-scale localized topographic forcing is imposed, leading to concurrent heat extremes at preferred locations.
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Affiliation(s)
- B. Jiménez‐Esteve
- ETH ZürichInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceZürichSwitzerland
| | | | - D. I. V. Domeisen
- ETH ZürichInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceZürichSwitzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface DynamicsUniversity of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
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37
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Loo WT, Chua KO, Mazumdar P, Cheng A, Osman N, Harikrishna JA. Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Legume Crops. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 11:2875. [PMID: 36365329 PMCID: PMC9657156 DOI: 10.3390/plants11212875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 10/22/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is likely to have severe impacts on food security in the topics as these regions of the world have both the highest human populations and narrower climatic niches, which reduce the diversity of suitable crops. Legume crops are of particular importance to food security, supplying dietary protein for humans both directly and in their use for feed and forage. Other than the rhizobia associated with legumes, soil microbes, in particular arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), can mitigate the effects of biotic and abiotic stresses, offering an important complementary measure to protect crop yields. This review presents current knowledge on AMF, highlights their beneficial role, and explores the potential for application of AMF in mitigating abiotic and biotic challenges for tropical legumes. Due to the relatively little study on tropical legume species compared to their temperate growing counterparts, much further research is needed to determine how similar AMF-plant interactions are in tropical legumes, which AMF species are optimal for agricultural deployment and especially to identify anaerobic AMF species that could be used to mitigate flood stress in tropical legume crop farming. These opportunities for research also require international cooperation and support, to realize the promise of tropical legume crops to contribute to future food security.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan Teng Loo
- Centre for Research in Biotechnology for Agriculture, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Kah-Ooi Chua
- Centre for Research in Biotechnology for Agriculture, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Purabi Mazumdar
- Centre for Research in Biotechnology for Agriculture, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Acga Cheng
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Normaniza Osman
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Jennifer Ann Harikrishna
- Centre for Research in Biotechnology for Agriculture, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
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38
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Makarieva AM, Nefiodov AV, Nobre AD, Sheil D, Nobre P, Pokorný J, Hesslerová P, Li BL. Vegetation impact on atmospheric moisture transport under increasing land-ocean temperature contrasts. Heliyon 2022; 8:e11173. [PMID: 36325135 PMCID: PMC9618993 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Revised: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger transitions in moisture availability remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarize the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport: an increase of sensible heat flux upon deforestation raises land surface temperature and this can elevate the temperature difference between land and ocean beyond the threshold. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation. Consideration of condensation dynamics reveals temperature-related tipping points. Additional heat over land can block oceanic moisture import causing severe drought. As the land warms faster than the ocean, these tipping thresholds approach. Deforestation increases sensible heat and exacerbates these water cycle extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastassia M. Makarieva
- Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia,Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstrasse 2 a, Garching, D-85748, Germany,USDA-China MOST Joint Research Center for AgroEcology and Sustainability, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0124, USA,Corresponding author at: Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia.
| | - Andrei V. Nefiodov
- Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, Gatchina, St. Petersburg, 188300, Russia
| | - Antonio Donato Nobre
- Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil
| | - Douglas Sheil
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, the Netherlands,Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Kota Bogor, 16115, Jawa Barat, Indonesia,Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway
| | - Paulo Nobre
- Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil
| | - Jan Pokorný
- ENKI, o.p.s., Dukelská 145, Třeboň, 379 01, Czech Republic
| | | | - Bai-Lian Li
- USDA-China MOST Joint Research Center for AgroEcology and Sustainability, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0124, USA
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39
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Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India. iScience 2022; 25:105377. [PMID: 36345335 PMCID: PMC9636558 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2022] [Revised: 09/05/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Considering the severe impacts of compound dry and hot extremes, we examine the primary drivers of CDHEs during the summer monsoon in India. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we show that most of the CDHEs in India occur during the droughts caused by the summer monsoon rainfall deficit. Despite a decline in the frequency of summer monsoon droughts in recent decades, increased CDHEs are mainly driven by warming and dry spells during the summer monsoon particularly in the Northeast, central northeast, and west central regions. A strong land-atmospheric coupling during droughts in the summer monsoon season leads to frequent CDHEs in the Northwest and southern peninsular regions. Furthermore, regional variations in land-atmospheric coupling cause substantial differences in the CDHE occurrence in different parts of the country. Summer monsoon rainfall variability and increased warming can pose a greater risk of compound dry and hot extremes with severe impacts on various sectors in India. CDHEs have increased in the observed period despite a decline in droughts in India CDHEs are largely driven by the rise in dry and warm spells during the monsoon season Regional variations in CDHEs are linked with the changes in land-atmospheric coupling
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40
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Zhang X, Hao Z, Singh VP, Zhang Y, Feng S, Xu Y, Hao F. Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 838:156021. [PMID: 35588839 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Drought is a costly natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, water supply, and socio-economy. While propagating through the water cycle, drought evolves into different types and affects the natural system and human society. Despite much progress made in recent decades, a synthesis of the characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors of drought propagation is still lacking. We bridge this gap by reviewing the recent progress of drought propagation and discussing challenges and future directions. We first introduce drought propagation characteristics (e.g., response time scale, lag time), followed by different approaches, including statistical analysis and hydrological modeling. The recent progress in the propagation from meteorological drought to different types of drought (agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and ecological drought) is then synthesized, including the basic process, commonly used indicators, data sources, and main findings of drought propagation characteristics. Different controlling factors of drought propagations, including climate (e.g., aridity, seasonality, and anomalies of meteorological variables), catchment properties (e.g., slope, elevation, land cover, aquifer, baseflow), and human activities (e.g., reservoir operation and water diversion, irrigation, and groundwater abstraction), are then summarized. Challenges in drought propagation include the discrepancy in drought indicators (and approaches) and difficulty in characterizing the full propagation process and isolating influencing factors. Future analysis of drought propagation should shift from single indicators to multiple indicators, from individual drivers to combined drivers, from uni-directional analysis to feedbacks, from hazards to impacts, and from stationary to nonstationary assumptions. This review is expected to be useful for drought prediction and management across different regions under global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuan Zhang
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Zengchao Hao
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Vijay P Singh
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA
| | - Yu Zhang
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Sifang Feng
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yang Xu
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Fanghua Hao
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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41
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Libonati R, Geirinhas JL, Silva PS, Monteiro Dos Santos D, Rodrigues JA, Russo A, Peres LF, Narcizo L, Gomes MER, Rodrigues AP, DaCamara CC, Pereira JMC, Trigo RM. Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2022; 1517:44-62. [PMID: 36052446 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renata Libonati
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.,Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.,Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - João L Geirinhas
- Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Patrícia S Silva
- Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | | - Julia A Rodrigues
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ana Russo
- Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Leonardo F Peres
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Luiza Narcizo
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Monique E R Gomes
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Andreza P Rodrigues
- Escola de Enfermagem Anna Nery, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Carlos C DaCamara
- Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - José Miguel C Pereira
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.,TERRA Associate Laboratory, Tapada da Ajuda, Portugal
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.,Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
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42
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Dee SG, Nabizadeh E, Nittrouer CL, Baldwin JW, Li C, Gaviria L, Guo S, Lu K, Saunders‐Shultz BM, Gurwitz E, Samarth G, Weinberger KR. Increasing Health Risks During Outdoor Sports Due To Climate Change in Texas: Projections Versus Attitudes. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000595. [PMID: 36254118 PMCID: PMC9363732 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 06/23/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high-school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid-to-late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat-related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvia G. Dee
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | | | | | - Jane W. Baldwin
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of California IrvineIrvineCAUSA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA
| | - Chelsea Li
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Lizzy Gaviria
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Selena Guo
- Department of EconomicsRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Karen Lu
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | | | - Emily Gurwitz
- Stanford University School of Humanities and SciencesPalo AltoCAUSA
| | - Gargi Samarth
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Kate R. Weinberger
- School of Population and Public HealthThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
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43
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Limited influence of irrigation on pre-monsoon heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4275. [PMID: 35879272 PMCID: PMC9314405 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31962-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Hot extremes are anticipated to be more frequent and more intense under climate change, making the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, with a 400 million population, vulnerable to heat stress. Recent studies suggest that irrigation has significant cooling and moistening effects over this region. While large-scale irrigation is prevalent in the Indo-Gangetic Plain during the two major cropping seasons, Kharif (Jun-Sep) and Rabi (Nov-Feb), hot extremes are reported in the pre-monsoon months (Apr-May) when irrigation activities are minimal. Here, using observed irrigation data and regional climate model simulations, we show that irrigation effects on heat stress during pre-monsoon are 4.9 times overestimated with model-simulated irrigation as prescribed in previous studies. We find that irrigation increases relative humidity by only 2.5%, indicating that irrigation is a non-crucial factor enhancing the moist heat stress. On the other hand, we detect causal effects of aerosol abundance on the daytime land surface temperature. Our study highlights the need to consider actual irrigation data in testing model-driven hypotheses related to the land-atmosphere feedback driven by human water management. Pre-monsoon irrigation over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is often misrepresented in model-driven hypothesis. Using actual census-based data and realistic model simulations, the authors show that irrigation has limited role in enhancing heat stress in the region.
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44
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Jiménez‐Esteve B, Domeisen DI. The role of atmospheric dynamics and large-scale topography in driving heatwaves. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (GREAT BRITAIN) 2022; 148:2344-2367. [PMID: 36246098 PMCID: PMC9544589 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4306] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2021] [Revised: 04/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves are weather events characterized by extreme near-surface temperature anomalies that persist for several days, and therefore lead to catastrophic impacts on natural ecosystems, agriculture, human health, and economies. Different physical processes can contribute to the temperature anomaly associated with heatwaves. Previous studies have shown that increased solar radiation and adiabatic heating associated with blocking systems and local land-atmosphere coupling are important drivers of summer heatwaves. Less is known about the fundamental role of atmospheric large-scale dynamics and topography in generating heatwaves. Here, we perform idealized model simulations where all physical parameterisations are substituted by a simple zonally symmetric temperature relaxation scheme. This allows us to characterize the dynamical processes involved in the life cycle of heatwaves occurring at different latitudes. We find that blocking plays an active role in the life cycle of high- and midlatitude heatwaves, while blocking is less relevant for low-latitude heatwaves. Rossby-wave packets are the dominant drivers for midlatitude heatwaves, with horizontal advection being the main mechanism leading to heat extremes. Heatwaves exhibit a higher persistence and frequency near the pole and Equator compared with the midlatitudes, but a higher intensity in the midlatitudes compared with higher and lower latitudes. Topography located along the midlatitude jet has the largest impact on the heatwave distribution around the planet, resulting in increased heatwave frequency upstream for moderate topographic forcing and a circumglobal increase for topographic elevations above 6 km. Identifying the most relevant processes driving heatwaves can potentially benefit the prediction and representation of extreme events in operational weather and climate forecast systems.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniela I.V. Domeisen
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Université de LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
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45
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Can Satellite-Based Thermal Anomalies Be Indicative of Heatwaves? An Investigation for MODIS Land Surface Temperatures in the Mediterranean Region. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14133139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
In recent years, an exceptional number of record-shattering temperature extremes have been observed, resulting in significant societal and environmental impacts. The Mediterranean region is particularly thermally vulnerable, frequently suffering from intense and severe heatwaves. Using daily temperature observations from 58 weather stations (NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network daily database) in the Mediterranean area, past heatwave episodes were initially detected. A daily LST time series was developed using Land Surface Temperature (LST) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (Terra & Aqua satellites) for a 19-year period (2002–2020) at the station locations. LST anomalies were identified using percentile-based indices. It was found that remotely sensed-based LST presents the potential for understanding and monitoring heatwave events, as surface thermal anomalies were generally indicative of heatwaves. Approximately 42% (39%) of heatwave days during daytime (nighttime) coincided with LST anomalies; conversely, 51% of daytime LST anomalies overlapped with the exact days of a heatwave (38% at night). Importantly, the degree of association was significantly higher for extremely hot days (up to an 80% match) and long-lasting heatwaves (up to an 85% match). Rising trends in frequency and duration were observed for both heatwaves and LST anomalies. The results advance the understanding of surface-atmosphere coupling during extreme temperature days and reflect the suitability of thermal remote sensing in heatwave preparedness strategies.
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46
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Increased Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in a Double Pack in Central Asia. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14132959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs’ accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs’ average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones.
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Ganguli P. Amplified risk of compound heat stress-dry spells in Urban India. CLIMATE DYNAMICS 2022; 60:1061-1078. [PMID: 35754938 PMCID: PMC9207834 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06324-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Compound warm-dry spells over land, which is expected to occur more frequently and expected to cover a much larger spatial extent in a warming climate, result from the simultaneous or successive occurrence of extreme heatwaves, low precipitation, and synoptic conditions, e.g., low surface wind speeds. While changing patterns of weather and climate extremes cannot be ameliorated, effective mitigation requires an understanding of the multivariate nature of interacting drivers that influence the occurrence frequency and predictability of these extremes. However, risk assessments are often focused on univariate statistics, incorporating either extreme temperature or low precipitation; or at the most bivariate statistics considering concurrence of temperature versus precipitation, without accounting for synoptic conditions influencing their joint dependency. Based on station-based daily meteorological records from 23 urban and peri-urban locations of India, covering the 1970-2018 period, this study identifies four distinct regions that show temporal clustering of the timing of heatwaves. Further, combining joint probability distributions of interacting drivers, this analysis explored compound warm-dry potentials that result from the co-occurrence of warmer temperature, scarcer precipitation, and synoptic wind patterns. The results reveal 50-year severe heat stress solely based on the temperature at each location tends to be more frequent and is expected to become 5 to 17-year compound warm-dry events considering interdependence between attributes. Notably, considering dependence among drivers, a median 6-fold amplification (ranging from 3 to 10-fold) in compound warm-dry spell frequency is apparent relative to the expected annual number of a local (univariate) 50-year severe heatwave episode, indicating warming-induced desiccation is already underway over most of the urbanized areas of the country. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-022-06324-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Poulomi Ganguli
- Agricultural and Food Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
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Thompson V, Kennedy-Asser AT, Vosper E, Lo YTE, Huntingford C, Andrews O, Collins M, Hegerl GC, Mitchell D. The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabm6860. [PMID: 35507648 PMCID: PMC9067932 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm6860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/16/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that the event was extreme, it is not obvious whether other areas in the world have also experienced events so far outside their natural variability. Using a novel assessment of heat extremes, we investigate how extreme this event was in the global context. Characterizing the relative intensity of an event as the number of standard deviations from the mean, the western North America heat wave is remarkable, coming in at over four standard deviations. Throughout the globe, where we have reliable data, only five other heat waves were found to be more extreme since 1960. We find that in both reanalyses and climate projections, the statistical distribution of extremes increases through time, in line with the distribution mean shift due to climate change. Regions that, by chance, have not had a recent extreme heat wave may be less prepared for potentially imminent events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vikki Thompson
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Emily Vosper
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Y. T. Eunice Lo
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Oliver Andrews
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Matthew Collins
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Dann Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Sturm J, Santos MJ, Schmid B, Damm A. Satellite data reveal differential responses of Swiss forests to unprecedented 2018 drought. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2956-2978. [PMID: 35182091 PMCID: PMC9310759 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Revised: 01/31/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Extreme events such as the summer drought of 2018 in Central Europe are projected to occur more frequently in the future and may cause major damages including increased tree mortality and negative impacts on forest ecosystem services. Here, we quantify the response of >1 million forest pixels of 10 × 10 m across Switzerland to the 2018 drought in terms of resistance, recovery, and resilience. We used the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data as a proxy for canopy water content and analyzed its relative change. We calculated NDWI change between the 2017 pre-drought and 2018 drought years (indicating resistance), 2018 and the 2019 post-drought (indicating recovery), and between 2017-2019 (indicating resilience). Analyzing the data from this large natural experiment, we found that for 4.3% of the Swiss forest the NDWI declined between 2017 and 2018, indicating areas with low resistance of the forest canopy to drought effects. While roughly 50% of this area recovered, in 2.7% of the forested area NDWI continued to decline from 2018 to 2019, suggesting prolonged negative effects or delayed damage. We found differential forest responses to drought associated with site topographic characteristics and forest stand characteristics, and to a lesser extent with climatic conditions and interactions between these drivers. Low drought resistance and high recovery were most prominent at forest edges, but also on south-facing slopes and lower elevations. Tree functional type was the most important driver of drought resilience, with most of the damage in stands with high conifer abundance. Our results demonstrate the suitability of satellite-based quantification of drought-induced forest damage at high spatial resolution across large areas. Such information is important to predict how local site characteristics may impact forest vulnerability to future extreme events and help in the search for appropriate adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joan Sturm
- Department of GeographyUniversity of ZurichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Maria J. Santos
- Department of GeographyUniversity of ZurichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Bernhard Schmid
- Department of GeographyUniversity of ZurichZürichSwitzerland
| | - Alexander Damm
- Department of GeographyUniversity of ZurichZürichSwitzerland
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and TechnologyDübendorfSwitzerland
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Long-Term Dynamics and Response to Climate Change of Different Vegetation Types Using GIMMS NDVI3g Data over Amathole District in South Africa. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13040620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Monitoring vegetation dynamics is essential for improving our understanding of how natural and managed agricultural landscapes respond to climate variability and change in the long term. Amathole District Municipality (ADM) in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa has been majorly threatened by climate variability and change during the last decades. This study explored long-term dynamics of vegetation and its response to climate variations using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index from the third-generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g) and the ERA5-Land global reanalysis product. A non-parametric trend and partial correlation analyses were used to evaluate the long-term vegetation changes and the role of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and wind speed) during the period 1981–2015. The results of the ADM’s seasonal NDVI3g characteristics suggested that negative vegetation changes (browning trends) dominated most of the landscape from winter to summer while positive (greening) trends dominated in autumn during the study period. Much of these changes were reflected in forest landscapes with a higher coefficient of variation (CV ≈ 15) than other vegetation types (CV ≈ 10). In addition, the pixel-wise correlation analyses indicated a positive (negative) relationship between the NDVI3g and the ERA5-Land precipitation in spring–autumn (winter) seasons, while the reverse was the case with other climatic variables across vegetation types. However, the relationships between the NDVI3g and the climatic variables were relatively low (R < 0.5) across vegetation types and seasons, the results somewhat suggest the potential role of atmospheric variations in vegetation changes in ADM. The findings of this study provide invaluable insights into potential consequences of climate change and the need for well-informed decisions that underpin the evaluation and management of regional vegetation and forest resources.
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