Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges

A study of land cover and land surface temperature changes triggered by tropical cyclone "Titli"

The intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) are on the rise due to climate change, resulting in severe damage to coastal regions. Hence, the mitigation of socioeconomic and environmental consequences of cyclones has attained paramount importance in the recent years. In this study, the rapid impact of a very severe cyclonic storm "Titli" on land cover (LC) changes were evaluated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and high-resolution Sentinel-2 data. The cyclonic event caused substantial modifications in land use and land cover with nearly 46% decrease in dense vegetation, 129% increase in fallow land, and 111% increase in water body, over the study region. Widespread damage (dense to less dense vegetation) was evident on the left side of the cyclone track as compared to the right. The analysis revealed a 98.3% decrease in dense vegetation, marked by a decrease in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 0.73 to 0.44 over the landfall region. This NDVI decrease continued for nearly 3 months before the onset of vegetation regrowth. Change in vegetation into other LCs over the landfall region resulted in an increase of the mean daytime land surface temperature by ~ 6 °C. The analysis highlights the magnitude of spatiotemporal scale damages to LULC and consequent loss in seasonality that can be ushered in by a single short-duration extreme weather event like TC and thus emphasizes the need for well-formulated mitigation strategies.

Old-growth beech forests in Germany as cool islands in a warming landscape

The climate crisis seriously threatens Central European forests and their ecosystem functions. There are indications that old-growth forests are relatively resilient and efficient in micro-climatic regulation during extreme climatic conditions. This study evaluates five well-protected old beech forests in Germany, part of a UNESCO World Heritage Site. We examined temperature dynamics and vitality in core, buffer, and border zones during hot days from 2017 to 2023, using Landsat 8 and 9 imageries to assess Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), alongside on-site Air Temperature (AT) measurements. Our findings reveal that all five forests were impacted by recent extreme heat events, with core zones remaining cooler and more vital, followed by buffer zones. Temperature-regulating patterns varied with landscape characteristics and the surrounding matrixes. We observed a site-dependent cooling effect of the forest interior that increased with higher LST. Our study highlights the value of old-growth forests and recommends increasing effective protection around mature forests, establishing corridors between isolated patches, and creating mosaics in managed landscapes that include unmanaged areas capable of developing into old-growth ecosystems.

Trigger thresholds and their dynamics of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions

Many evidences have shown that both atmospheric and soil droughts can constrain vegetation growth and further threaten its ability to sequester carbon. However, the trigger thresholds of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions are still unknown. In this study, we proposed a Copula and Bayesian equations-based framework to investigate trigger thresholds of various vegetation production losses under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions. The trigger thresholds dynamics and their possible causes were also investigated. To achieve this goal, we first simulated the gross primary production, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit over China during 1961-2018 using an individual-based, spatially explicit dynamic global vegetation model. The main drivers of the dynamic change in trigger thresholds were then explored by Random Forest model. We found that soil drought caused greater stress on gross primary production loss than atmospheric drought, with a larger impact area and higher probability of damage. In terms of spatial distribution, the risk probability of gross primary production loss was higher in eastern China than in western China, and the drought trigger threshold was also smaller in eastern China. In addition, the trigger thresholds for atmospheric and soil drought in most regions exhibited a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018, while the CO2 fertilization enhanced the drought tolerance of vegetation. The reduction in CO2 fertilization effect slowed down the downward trend of trigger threshold for soil drought, while the increase in temperature exacerbated the downward trend of trigger threshold for atmospheric drought. This study highlighted the larger effect of soil drought on vegetation production loss than atmospheric drought and implied that climate change can modulate the trigger threshold of vegetation production losses under drought conditions. These findings provide scientific guidance for managing the increasing risk of drought on vegetation and optimizing watershed water allocation.

Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States

Historically, meteorological drought in the western United States (WUS) has been driven primarily by precipitation deficits. However, our observational analysis shows that, since around 2000, rising surface temperature and the resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%) over the WUS than precipitation deficit. This increase in evaporative demand during droughts, mostly attributable to anthropogenic warming according to analyses of both observations and climate model simulations, is the main cause of the increased drought severity and coverage. The unprecedented 2020-2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought drivers, with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit. Climate model simulations corroborate this shift and project that, under the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), droughts like the 2020-2022 event will transition from a one-in-more-than-a-thousand-year event in the pre-2022 period to a 1-in-60-year event by the mid-21st century and to a 1-in-6-year event by the late-21st century.

An Abrupt Decline in Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Its Relationship with Sea Level Change

As observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions, global terrestrial water storage (TWS), excluding ice sheets and glaciers, declined rapidly between May 2014 and March 2016. By 2023, it had not yet recovered, with the upper end of its range remaining 1 cm equivalent height of water below the upper end of the earlier range. Beginning with a record-setting drought in northeastern South America, a series of droughts on five continents helped to prevent global TWS from rebounding. While back-to-back El Niño events are largely responsible for the South American drought and others in the 2014-2016 timeframe, the possibility exists that global warming has contributed to a net drying of the land since then, through enhanced evapotranspiration and increasing frequency and intensity of drought. Corollary to the decline in global TWS since 2015 has been a rise in barystatic sea level (i.e., global mean ocean mass). However, we find no evidence that it is anything other than a coincidence that, also in 2015, two estimates of barystatic sea level change, one from GRACE/FO and the other from a combination of satellite altimetry and Argo float ocean temperature measurements, began to diverge. Herein, we discuss both the mechanisms that account for the abrupt decline in terrestrial water storage and the possible explanations for the divergence of the barystatic sea level change estimates.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10712-024-09860-w.

Deep learning-based quantitative analyses of feedback in the land-atmosphere interactions over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

During the past several decades, the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) has experienced many severe droughts, resulting in significant impacts on both agriculture and aquaculture. In the evolution and intensification of droughts, local feedbacks in the Land-Atmosphere (LA) interactions were considered to play a crucial role. It is critical to quantify the impact of LA variables on drought processes and severity with the feedback loop of water and energy balances (e.g., soil moisture-latent and sensible heat-precipitation). In this study, a deep learning model, named Long- and Short-term Time-series Network (LSTNet), was applied to simulate the LA interactions over the VMD. With the ERA5 data as modelling inputs, the role of each key variable (e.g., soil moisture, sensible and latent heat) in the LA interactions over the period of 2011-2020 was quantified, and the variations of their inter-relationships in the future period (2015-2099) were also investigated based on the CMIP6 data. The LSTNet model has demonstrated that the deep learning algorithm can effectively capture the relative importance of key variables in the LA interactions. We found that it is crucial to evaluate the effects of soil moisture and sensible heat on the LA interactions, particularly in the dry periods when negative anomalies in soil moisture and sensible heat would significantly reduce the amount of precipitation. In addition, the decline in soil moisture and the rise in sensible heat are anticipated to further diminish precipitation in the future under the changing climate.

Dryland self-expansion enabled by land-atmosphere feedbacks

Dryland expansion causes widespread water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Although the drying influence of global warming is well established, the role of existing drylands in their own expansion is relatively unknown. In this work, by tracking the air flowing over drylands, we show that the warming and drying of that air contributes to dryland expansion in the downwind direction. As they dry, drylands contribute less moisture and more heat to downwind humid regions, reducing precipitation and increasing atmospheric water demand, which ultimately causes their aridification. In ~40% of the land area that recently transitioned from a humid region into a dryland, self-expansion accounted for >50% of the observed aridification. Our results corroborate the urgent need for climate change mitigation measures in drylands to decelerate their own expansion.

Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes

Summers with extremely high vapor pressure deficit contribute to crop losses, ecosystem damages, and wildfires. Here, we identify very rare summer vapor pressure deficit extremes globally in reanalysis data and climate model simulations, and quantify the contributions of temperature and atmospheric moisture anomalies to their intensity. The simulations agree with reanalysis data regarding these physical characteristics of historic vapor pressure deficit extremes, and show a +33/+28% increase in their intensity in the northern/southern mid-latitudes over this century. About half of this drastic increase in the magnitude of extreme vapor pressure deficit anomalies is due to climate warming, since this quantity depends exponentially on temperature. Further contributing factors are increasing temperature variability (e.g., in Europe) and the expansion of soil moisture-limited regions. This study shows that to avoid amplified impacts of future vapor pressure deficit extremes, ecosystems and crops must become more resilient not only to an increasing mean vapor pressure deficit, but additionally also to larger seasonal anomalies of this quantity.

Evaluation of the coupling of EMACv2.55 to the land surface and vegetation model JSBACHv4

Abstract. We present the coupling of the Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg version 4 (JSBACHv4) to the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. With JSBACH, the soil water bucket model in EMAC is replaced by a diffusive hydrological transport model for soil water that includes water storage and infiltration in five soil layers, preventing soil from drying too rapidly and reducing biases in soil temperature and moisture. A three-layer soil scheme is implemented, and phase changes in water in the soil are considered. The leaf area index (LAI) climatology in EMAC has been substituted with a phenology module calculating the LAI. Multiple land cover types are included to provide a state-dependent surface albedo, which accounts for the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Plant net primary productivity, leaf area index and surface roughness are calculated according to the plant functional types. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the new coupled model based on observations and reanalysis data, including ERA5/ERA5-Land datasets, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. Land surface temperature (LST), terrestrial water storage (TWS), surface albedo (α), net top-of-atmosphere radiation flux (RadTOA), precipitation (precip), leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR) and gross primary productivity (GPP) are evaluated in particular. The strongest correlation (r) between reanalysis data and the newly coupled model is found for LST (r=0.985, with an average global bias of −1.546 K), α (r=0.947, with an average global bias of −0.015) and RadTOA (r=0.907, with an average global bias of 3.56 W m−2). Precipitation exhibits a correlation with the GPCP dataset of 0.523 and an average global bias of 0.042 mm d−1. The LAI optimisation yields a correlation of 0.637 with observations and a global mean deviation of −0.212. FAPAR and GPP exemplify two of the many additional variables made available through JSBACH in EMAC. FAPAR and observations show a correlation of 0.663, with an average global difference of −0.223, while the correlation for GPP and observations is 0.564 and the average global difference is −0.001 kg carbon km−1. Benefiting from the numerous added features within the simulated land system, the representation of soil moisture is improved, which is critical for vegetation modelling. This improvement can be attributed to a general increase in soil moisture and water storage in deeper soil layers and a closer alignment of simulated TWS with observations, mitigating the previously widespread problem of soil drought. We show that the numerous newly added components strongly improve the land surface, e.g. soil moisture, TWS and LAI, while surface parameters, such as LST, surface albedo or RadTOA, which were mostly prescribed according to climatologies, remain similar. The coupling of JSBACH brings EMAC a step closer towards a holistic comprehensive Earth system model and extends its versatility.

Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China

Given the devastating effects and potential rising trends of compound drought and heatwave (CDH) events under the specter of global warming, this study embarks on a comprehensive examination of their spatial and temporal evolution, as well as the intrinsic drivers. This study identified CDH events based on the non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (NSPEI) and the relative threshold method. The study also quantified the spatial and temporal patterns of frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events across different climatic sub-regions, quantifying the contribution of drought-heatwave interdependence to these events and assessing the impact of single extreme climate events on their proliferation. The study yielded several key findings: 1) The frequency, intensity, and duration of CDH events exhibited high spatial heterogeneity and a significant increasing trend over the study period. 2) A notable positive interdependence was observed between the occurrences of droughts and heatwaves, significantly contributing to the rise in CDH events. 3) Droughts exacerbated the intensity and duration of CDH events compared to heatwaves under non-drought conditions (NDCH). 4) The spatial distribution characteristics and the change indices of heatwaves and CDH events were strikingly similar, indicating a consistent evolution. Notably, the increase in heatwaves had a more pronounced influence on the escalation of CDH events compared to droughts. 5) The West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the South Asian High (SAH) have had significant impacts on CDH events in mainland China. This research provides vital insights into the dynamics of CDH events, emphasizing their growing frequency and severity in the context of climate change. It offers a crucial perspective for policymakers and disaster management authorities in developing targeted strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Intensifying spatially compound heatwaves: Global implications to crop production and human population

Recent research has provided crucial insights on regional heatwaves, including their causal mechanisms and changes under global warming. However, detailed research on global-scale spatially compound heatwaves (SCHs) (concurrent heatwaves over multiple regions) is lacking. Here, we find statistically significant teleconnections in heatwaves and show that the frequency of global-scale SCHs and their areal extent have increased significantly, which has led to 50 % increase in the population exposed to extreme heat stresses in the two most recent decades. Crop yields were reduced in most of the years of anomalous heatwaves, which often happen during El-Niños. The internal climate variability appears to significantly influence the inter-annual variability of regional and global heatwave extents. Insights gained here are critical in better quantifying heat stress risks inflicted on socioecological systems.

Tree species explain only half of explained spatial variability in plant water sensitivity

Spatiotemporal patterns of plant water uptake, loss, and storage exert a first-order control on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Many studies of plant responses to water stress have focused on differences between species because of their different stomatal closure, xylem conductance, and root traits. However, several other ecohydrological factors are also relevant, including soil hydraulics, topographically driven redistribution of water, plant adaptation to local climatic variations, and changes in vegetation density. Here, we seek to understand the relative importance of the dominant species for regional-scale variations in woody plant responses to water stress. We map plant water sensitivity (PWS) based on the response of remotely sensed live fuel moisture content to variations in hydrometeorology using an auto-regressive model. Live fuel moisture content dynamics are informative of PWS because they directly reflect vegetation water content and therefore patterns of plant water uptake and evapotranspiration. The PWS is studied using 21,455 wooded locations containing U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plots across the western United States, where species cover is known and where a single species is locally dominant. Using a species-specific mean PWS value explains 23% of observed PWS variability. By contrast, a random forest driven by mean vegetation density, mean climate, soil properties, and topographic descriptors explains 43% of observed PWS variability. Thus, the dominant species explains only 53% (23% compared to 43%) of explainable variations in PWS. Mean climate and mean NDVI also exert significant influence on PWS. Our results suggest that studies of differences between species should explicitly consider the environments (climate, soil, topography) in which observations for each species are made, and whether those environments are representative of the entire species range.

Microrefugia and microclimate: Unraveling decoupling potential and resistance to heatwaves

Microrefugia, defined as small areas maintaining populations of species outside their range margins during environmental extremes, are increasingly recognized for their role in conserving species in the face of climate change. Understanding their microclimatic dynamics becomes crucial with global warming leading to severe temperature and precipitation changes. This study investigates the phenomenon of short-term climatic decoupling within microrefugia and its implications for plant persistence in the Mediterranean region of southeastern France. We focus on microrefugia's ability to climatically disconnect from macroclimatic trends, examining temperature and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) dynamics in microrefugia, adjacent control plots, and weather stations. Our study encompasses both "normal" conditions and heatwave episodes to explore the role of microrefugia as thermal and moisture insulators during extreme events. Landscape attributes such as relative elevation, solar radiation, distance to streams, and vegetation height are investigated for their contribution to short-term decoupling. Our results demonstrate that microrefugia exhibit notable decoupling from macroclimatic trends. This effect is maintained during heatwaves, underscoring microrefugia's vital role in responding to climatic extremes. Importantly, microrefugia maintain lower VPD levels than their surroundings outside and during heatwaves, potentially mitigating water stress for plants. This study advances our understanding of microclimate dynamics within microrefugia and underscores their ecological importance for plant persistence in a changing climate. As heatwaves become more frequent and severe, our findings provide insights into the role of microrefugia in buffering but also decoupling against extreme climatic events and, more generally, against climate warming. This knowledge emphasizes the need to detect and protect existing microrefugia, as they can be integrated into conservation strategies and climate change adaptation plans.

Hydrological response to long-lasting dry spell at the southern edge of Siberian permafrost

Regions experiencing prolonged dry spell exhibit intensified land-atmosphere coupling, exacerbating dry conditions within the hydrological system. Yet, understanding the propagation of these processes within the context of permafrost degradation remains limited. Our study investigates concurrent hydro-climate variations in the semi-arid Selenga River basin in the southern edge of Siberian permafrost. Driven by the natural atmospheric circulations, this region experienced two distinct dry spells during 1954-2013. It enables comparative investigations into the role of warming-induced permafrost degradations in drought dynamics under land-atmosphere coupling. Based on a comprehensive analysis of observed borehole data from 1996 to 2009 and empirical methods, we identify widespread permafrost loss in the semi-arid Selenga region. Such large-scale landscape changes may increase the infiltration of water from the surface to the subsurface hydrological system, and significantly influence the dry conditions in landsurface. First, significant decreasing trends are observed in river runoff (-0.30mm/yr, p < 0.05) and TWS (-3.16 mm/yr, p = 0.1), despite the absence of an apparent trend in annual precipitation (0.009 mm/yr, p = 0.9). Furthermore, in comparison to the first dry spell (1974-1983, 10yrs), the hydro-climatic variables show prolonged and more severe water deficits in runoff and TWS during the second dry spell (1996-2012, 17 yrs), with a reduced runoff-generation efficiency from precipitation. Such exacerbated dry conditions are coincident with amplified positive anomalies observed in air temperature, PET, as well as low-level geopotential height. These concurrent "hot-dry" phenomena indicate an enhanced land-atmospheric interaction within the hydro-climate system, which is further evidenced by the negative relationship between permafrost thawing index and runoff deficits (regression coefficient = -3.8, p < 0.001). As climate warming continues, the ongoing permafrost degradation could reinforce water scarcity, triggering an irreversible shift in water availability in water-scarce regions. Our findings could support freshwater management for regional food supply, human health, and ecosystem functions in the regions undergoing large-scale permafrost degradation.

Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa

South Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009-2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed.

Anthropogenic forcing has increased the risk of longer-traveling and slower-moving large contiguous heatwaves

Heatwaves are consecutive hot days with devastating impacts on human health and the environment. These events may evolve across both space and time, characterizing a spatiotemporally contiguous propagation pattern that has not been fully understood. Here, we track the spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves in both reanalysis datasets and model simulations and examine their moving patterns (i.e., moving distance, speed, and direction) in different continents and periods. Substantial changes in contiguous heatwaves have been identified from 1979 to 2020, with longer persistence, longer traveling distance, and slower propagation. These changes have been amplified since 1997, probably due to the weakening of eddy kinetic energy, zonal wind, and anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that longer-lived, longer-traveling, and slower-moving contiguous heatwaves will cause more devastating impacts on human health and the environment in the future if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and no effective measures are taken immediately. Our findings provide important implications for the adaption and mitigation of globally connected extreme heatwaves.

Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth

Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.

The severity of dry and hot climate extremes and their related impacts on vegetation in Madagascar

Madagascar is a low-income country, highly vulnerable to natural disasters affecting the small-scale subsistence farming system. Recently, climate change and environmental degradation have contributed to an intensification of food insecurity. We aim to monitor the link between dry and hot extremes on vegetation conditions, separated or concurrently, using satellite data, such as LST, ET, ET0, and FAPAR products from SEVIRI/MSG disseminated by LSASAF-EUMETSAT. The analysis was made for a long record from 2004 to 2021, focusing on the extreme seasons of 2020 and 2021. Results highlight the higher impact of combined dry and hot events when compared with isolated events, with a strong response of vegetation in the southern part of Madagascar. Results point to the added value of using the recent data records from geostationary satellites with high temporal resolution and updated in near real-time, to early detect, monitor, and characterize the impact of climate extremes on vegetation dynamics.

Compound drought and heat waves variation and association with SST modes across China

Compound drought and heatwaves (CDH) have garnered increasing attention because concurrent extreme events can exacerbate the harmful impacts caused by univariate extremes. However, various severities in CDH events and their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) variations in China remain little understood. Here, we accurately identify CDH events and multi-aspect of characteristics using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the excess heat factor (EHF) during the extended summer (May-September) of 1961-2017. The evolution of multifaceted characteristics of CDH and their association with SST variation are further explored. The results suggest that the number, frequency, duration and intensity of regional CDH events show heterogeneous spatial patterns, with a significant increasing trend. A consistent abrupt transition in CDH characteristics averaged over China occurred in the period of 1993-1996. Mild and moderate CDHs occur more commonly in Northwest and North China, whereas severe CDHs are mainly found in central and eastern regions. Mild and moderate CDHs are more susceptible to SST modes than severe CDH, and there are strong positive correlations between mild and moderate CDH characteristics and SST variations in the northwest and northern regions. Compared to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant role in the intensifications of mild and moderate CDH events. Regionally, the northwest and north have experienced longer, more frequent and severe CDH events during the positive phase of IOD. These findings reveal the divergent evolutions in CDH characteristics with various severities and inconsistent impacts of different SST modes on the compound events.

The negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics

There are complex bidirectional feedback relationships among different types of droughts (e.g., meteorological and agricultural droughts). As agricultural drought intensifies, meteorological drought response to agricultural drought may be changed from negative to positive feedback. Nevertheless, the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics have remained unsolved. Herein, we proposed a new quantitative method to characterize the mutual feedback between meteorological drought and agricultural drought based on the vine copula function for the first time in this study. The negative-positive feedback transition threshold and the sensitivity of the feedback were quantified under certain drought conditions. In order to investigate the feedback relationship dynamics under a changing environment, the total study period was evenly divided into two stages: stage 1 (1982-1999) and stage 2 (2000-2018). Finally, the random forest method was used to explore the dominant factors on the transition threshold. Results indicate that: (1) the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds in August is generally lower than June and July in mainland China, the basin with large threshold is the Southwest River Basin; (2) the sensitivity of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought was higher in positive feedback than in negative feedback; (3) the transition thresholds of stage 2 was mostly reduced, while the feedback sensitivity of positive feedback was mostly increased; and (4) compared with the single factor, the land-meteorological coupling strength (the correlation between precipitation and soil moisture) dominants the negative-positive feedback transition threshold. This study sheds new insights into droughts feedback.

The complexity of heatwaves impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes: Factors, mechanisms and a multi-stage analytical approach

Extreme heatwaves have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, and are expected to significantly influence carbon fluxes at regional scales across global terrestrial ecosystems. Nevertheless, accurate prediction of future heatwave impacts remains challenging due to a lack of a consistent comprehension of intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms. We approached this knowledge gap by analyzing the complexity factors in heatwave studies, including the methodology for determining heatwave events, divergent responses of individual ecosystem components at multiple ecological and temporal scales, and vegetation status and hydrothermal environment, among other factors. We found that heatwaves essentially are continuously changing compound environmental stress that can unfold into multiple chronological stages, and plant physiology and carbon flux responses differs in each of these stages. This approach offers a holistic perspective, recognizing that the impacts of heatwaves on ecosystems can be better understood when evaluated over time. These stages include instantaneous, post-heatwave, legacy, and cumulative effects, each contributing uniquely to the overall impact on the ecosystem carbon cycle. Next, we investigated the importance of the timing of heatwaves and the possible divergent consequences caused by different annual heatwave patterns. Finally, a conceptual framework is proposed to establish a united foundation for the study and comprehension of the consequences of heatwaves on ecosystem carbon cycle. This instrumental framework will assist in guiding regional assessments of heatwave impacts, shedding light on the underlying mechanisms responsible for the varied responses of terrestrial ecosystems to specific heatwave events, which are imperative for devising efficient adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Evaluation of flash drought under the impact of heat wave events in southwestern Germany

Flash droughts are a recently recognised type of extreme drought defined by the rapid onset and strong intensification of drought conditions. Our understanding of flash drought processes under the influence of heat waves needs to be improved in the context of global warming. Here, we applied a physically based hydrological model, i.e., TRAnspiration and INterception (TRAIN) model to simulate root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and evapotranspiration (ET) with daily time steps and at a 1 × 1 km resolution to identify and assess flash droughts. Two states, Baden-Württemberg (BW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), located in southwestern Germany, were selected as the study areas. Three datasets, the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) dataset, ERA5-Land (land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis) dataset, and SMAP-L4 (Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4) dataset, were selected to evaluate the TRAIN simulated RZSM and ET from 1961 to 2016. The results show that the simulated RZSM had the highest correlation with the ERA5-Land products, followed by SMAP-L4 and GLEAM, with regional average correlation coefficients (CC) of 0.765, 0.762, and 0.746, respectively. The CC of the TRAIN simulated ET with ERA5-Land and GLEAM ET were 0.828 and 0.803, respectively. The results of the trend analyses showed a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of flash droughts and heat waves in both the BW and RP states. A comparative analysis revealed that the mean duration and onset speed of flash droughts in BW (RP) without heat waves were 10.42 (10.67) pentads and 19.69th percentile/pentad (17.16th percentile/pentad), respectively, while associated with heat waves they were 8.95 (9.53) pentads and 21.77th percentile/pentad (19.91th percentile/pentad), respectively. This indicates that flash droughts under the influence of heat waves are generally shorter in duration but faster in occurrence. The findings of this study have important implications for flash drought assessment, monitoring, and mitigation under the impact of heat waves.

Global diagnosis of land-atmosphere coupling based on water isotopes

Land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) plays a significant role in weather and climate and is related to droughts and heatwaves. We propose a simple and efficient LAC diagnosis method based on the analysis of water isotopes in atmospheric water vapour and precipitation. Using the method, we identify the primary LAC hotspot regions of the globe and reveal the seasonality of LAC strength. We find that LAC strength exhibits a relationship with latitude. Low latitudes present stronger LAC strength and contribute more significantly to the overall LAC area compared to boreal middle and high latitudes. It's important to note that LAC primarily manifests in the troposphere and is detected in the lower stratosphere of low latitudes, with limited influence observed in the stratosphere. However, the impact of LAC is noticeable in the upper stratosphere in boreal middle and high latitudes. Moreover, the seasonality of LAC strength is pronounced. On a global scale, the season with the strongest LAC is boreal autumn in the Northern Hemisphere but boreal summer in the Southern Hemisphere. Notably, this pattern does not exhibit a seesaw effect between the two hemispheres. Our isotope-based LAC diagnosis method captures the major LAC hotspots found in previous work and validates the seasonality of LAC within these hotspots. This substantiates the reliability and effectiveness of our isotope-based approach.

A review of widely used drought indices and the challenges of drought assessment under climate change

Under climate change, drought assessment, which can address nonstationarity in drought indicators and anthropogenic implications, is required to mitigate drought impacts. However, the development of drought indices for a reliable drought assessment is a challenging task in the warming climate. Thus, this study discusses factors that should be considered in developing drought indices in changing climate. Inconsistent drought assessment can be obtained, depending on the baseline period defined in developing drought indices. Therefore, the baseline period should represent the contemporary climate but should also correspond to long enough observations for stable parameter estimation. The importance of accurate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for drought indices becomes higher under a warming climate. Although the Penman-Monteith method yields accurate PET values, depending on the climate and vegetation cover, other suitable PET formulas, such as the Hargreaves method, with fewer hydrometeorological data can be used. Since a single drought index is not enough to properly monitor drought evolution, a method that can objectively combine multiple drought indices is required. Besides, quantifying anthropogenic impacts, which can add more uncertainty, on drought assessment is also important to adapt to the changing drought conditions and minimize human-induced drought. Drought is expected to occur more frequently with more severe, longer, and larger areal extent under global warming, since a more arid background, which climate change will provide, intensifies land-atmosphere feedback, leading to the desiccation of land and drying atmosphere. Thus, an accurate drought assessment, based on robust drought indices, is required.

Diagnosing evapotranspiration responses to water deficit across biomes using deep learning

Accounting for water limitation is key to determining vegetation sensitivity to drought. Quantifying water limitation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) is challenged by the heterogeneity of vegetation types, climate zones and vertically along the rooting zone. Here, we train deep neural networks using flux measurements to study ET responses to progressing drought conditions. We determine a water stress factor (fET) that isolates ET reductions from effects of atmospheric aridity and other covarying drivers. We regress fET against the cumulative water deficit, which reveals the control of whole-column moisture availability. We find a variety of ET responses to water stress. Responses range from rapid declines of fET to 10% of its water-unlimited rate at several savannah and grassland sites, to mild fET reductions in most forests, despite substantial water deficits. Most sensitive responses are found at the most arid and warm sites. A combination of regulation of stomatal and hydraulic conductance and access to belowground water reservoirs, whether in groundwater or deep soil moisture, could explain the different behaviors observed across sites. This variety of responses is not captured by a standard land surface model, likely reflecting simplifications in its representation of belowground water storage.

Correcting biases in regional climate model boundary variables for improved simulation of high-impact compound events

Although climate models have been used to assess compound events, the combination of multiple hazards or drivers poses uncertainties because of the systemic biases present. Here, we investigate multivariate bias correction for correcting systemic bias in the boundaries that form the inputs of regional climate models (RCMs). This improves the representation of physical relationships among variables, essential for accurate characterization of compound events. We address four types of compound events that result from eight different hazards. The results show that while the RCM simulations presented here exhibit similar performance for some event types, the multivariate bias correction broadly improves the RCM representation of compound events compared to no correction or univariate correction, particularly for coincident high temperature and high precipitation. The RCM with uncorrected boundaries tends to produce a negative bias in the return period of these events, suggesting a tendency to over-simulate compound events with respect to observed events.

Long-term changes in forest response to extreme atmospheric dryness

Atmospheric dryness, as indicated by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), has a strong influence on forest greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. In this study, we used long-term (10-30 years) net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measurements from 60 forest sites across the world (1003 site-years) to quantify long-term changes in forest NEP resistance and NEP recovery in response to extreme atmospheric dryness. We tested two hypotheses: first, across sites differences in NEP resistance and NEP recovery of forests will depend on both the biophysical characteristics (i.e., leaf area index [LAI] and forest type) of the forest as well as on the local meteorological conditions of the site (i.e., mean VPD of the site), and second, forests experiencing an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of extreme dryness will show an increasing trend in NEP resistance and NEP recovery over time due to emergence of long-term ecological stress memory. We used a data-driven statistical learning approach to quantify NEP resistance and NEP recovery over multiple years. Our results showed that forest types, LAI, and median local VPD conditions explained over 50% of variance in both NEP resistance and NEP recovery, with drier sites showing higher NEP resistance and NEP recovery compared to sites with less atmospheric dryness. The impact of extreme atmospheric dryness events on NEP lasted for up to 3 days following most severe extreme events in most forests, indicated by an NEP recovery of less than 100%. We rejected our second hypothesis as we found no consistent relationship between trends of extreme VPD with trends in NEP resistance and NEP recovery across different forest sites, thus an increase in atmospheric dryness as it is predicted might not increase the resistance or recovery of forests in terms of NEP.

Enhanced dominance of soil moisture stress on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands

Despite the mounting attention being paid to vegetation growth and their driving forces for water-limited ecosystems, the relative contributions of atmospheric and soil moisture dryness stress on vegetation growth are an ongoing debate. Here we comprehensively compare the impacts of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil water content (SWC) on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands during 1982-2014. The analysis indicates a gradual decoupling between atmospheric dryness and soil dryness over this period, as the former has expanded faster than the latter. Moreover, the VPD-SWC relation and VPD-greenness relation are both non-linear, while the SWC-greenness relation is near-linear. The loosened coupling between VPD and SWC, the non-linear correlations among VPD-SWC-greenness and the expanded area extent in which SWC acts as the dominant stress factor all provide compelling evidence that SWC is a more influential stressor than VPD on vegetation growth in Eurasian drylands. In addition, a set of 11 Earth system models projected a continuously growing constraint of SWC stress on vegetation growth towards 2100. Our results are vital to dryland ecosystems management and drought mitigation in Eurasia.

Impact of climate extreme events and their causality on maize yield in South Africa

Extreme climate events can have a significant negative impact on maize productivity, resulting in food scarcity and socioeconomic losses. Thus, quantifying their effect is needed for developing future adaptation and mitigation strategies, especially for countries relying on maize as a staple crop, such as South Africa. While several studies have analyzed the impact of climate extremes on maize yields in South Africa, little is known on the quantitative contribution of combined extreme events to maize yield variability and the causality link of extreme events. This study uses existing stress indices to investigate temporal and spatial patterns of heatwaves, drought, and extreme precipitation during maize growing season between 1986/87 and 2015/16 for South Africa provinces and at national level and quantifies their contribution to yield variability. A causal discovery algorithm was applied to investigate the causal relationship among extreme events. At the province and national levels, heatwaves and extreme precipitation showed no significant trend. However, drought severity increased in several provinces. The modified Combined Stress Index (CSIm) model showed that the maize yield nationwide was associated with drought events (explaining 25% of maize yield variability). Heatwaves has significant influence on maize yield variability (35%) in Free State. In North West province, the maize yield variability (46%) was sensitive to the combination of drought and extreme precipitation. The causal analysis suggests that the occurrence of heatwaves intensified drought, while a causal link between heatwaves and extreme precipitation was not detected. The presented findings provide a deeper insight into the sensitivity of yield data to climate extremes and serve as a basis for future studies on maize yield anomalies.

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

Plant lectins: Classical molecules with emerging roles in stress tolerance

Biotic and abiotic stresses impose adverse effects on plant's development, growth, and production. For the past many years, researchers are trying to understand the stress induced responses in plants and decipher strategies to produce stress tolerant crops. It has been demonstrated that molecular networks encompassing an array of genes and functional proteins play a key role in generating responses to combat different stresses. Newly, there has been a resurgence of interest to explore the role of lectins in modulating various biological responses in plants. Lectins are naturally occurring proteins that form reversible linkages with their respective glycoconjugates. To date, several plant lectins have been recognized and functionally characterized. However, their involvement in stress tolerance is yet to be comprehensively analyzed in greater detail. The availability of biological resources, modern experimental tools, and assay systems has provided a fresh impetus for plant lectin research. Against this backdrop, the present review provides background information on plant lectins and recent knowledge on their crosstalks with other regulatory mechanisms, which play a remarkable role in plant stress amelioration. It also highlights their versatile role and suggests that adding more information to this under-explored area will usher in a new era of crop improvement.

Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China

Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today's climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets.

Land-atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets

Global crop yields are highly dependent on climate variability, with the largest agricultural failures frequently occurring during extremely dry and hot years. Land-atmosphere feedbacks are thought to play a crucial role in agricultural productivity during such events: precipitation deficits cause soil desiccation, which reduces evaporation and enhances sensible heating from the land surface; the amplified local temperatures and moisture deficits can be detrimental to crop yield. While this impact of local land-atmosphere feedbacks on agricultural productivity has recently been reported, the dependency of crop yields on upwind regions remains understudied. Here, we determine the spatio-temporal origins of moisture and heat over the world's largest 75 rainfed breadbaskets, and illustrate the crop yield dependency on upwind regions. Further, we disentangle the role of local and upwind land-atmosphere interactions on anomalous moisture and heat transport during low-yield years. Our results indicate that crop failure increases on average by around 40% when both upwind and local land-atmosphere feedbacks cause anomalously low moisture and high heat transport into the breadbaskets. The impact of upwind land-atmosphere feedbacks on productivity deficits is the largest in water-limited regions, which show an increased dependency on moisture supply from upwind land areas. Better understanding these upwind-downwind dependencies in agricultural regions can help develop adaptation strategies to prevent food shortage in a changing climate.

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.

Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming

During summer 2021, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave with record-breaking high temperatures associated with a strong anomalous high-pressure system, i.e., a heat dome. Here, we use a flow analog method and find that the heat dome over the WNA can explain half of the magnitude of the anomalous temperature. The intensities of hot extremes associated with similar heat dome-like atmospheric circulations increase faster than background global warming in both historical change and future projection. Such relationship between hot extremes and mean temperature can be partly explained by soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. The probability of 2021-like heat extremes is projected to increase due to the background warming, the enhanced soil moisture-atmosphere feedback and the weak but still significantly increased probability of the heat dome-like circulation. The population exposure to such heat extremes will also increase. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C (3 °C) would lead to an avoided impact of 53% (89%) of the increase in population exposure to 2021-like heat extremes under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario.

The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal

Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities that occurred in June and October events. The local insurance sector declared it was the costliest natural disaster in Portugal with payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, the 2017 October event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha of burnt area and 50 fatalities is analyzed from a compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress of vegetation in October 2017. In addition, on 15 October 2017, two other major drivers played a critical role: 1) the passage of hurricane Ophelia off the Coast of Portugal, responsible for exceptional meteorological conditions and 2) the human agent, responsible for an extremely elevated number of negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers led to the uncontrolled wildfires observed on 15 October.

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change

Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.

Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2

When soil moisture (SM) content falls within a transitional regime between dry and wet conditions, it controls evaporation, affecting atmospheric heat and humidity. Accordingly, different SM regimes correspond to different gears of land-atmosphere coupling, affecting climate. Determining patterns of SM regimes and their future evolution is imperative. Here, we examine global SM regime distributions from ten climate models. Under increasing CO₂, the range of SM extends into unprecedented coupling regimes in many locations. Solely wet regime areas decline globally by 15.9%, while transitional regimes emerge in currently humid areas of the tropics and high latitudes. Many semiarid regions spend more days in the transitional regime and fewer in the dry regime. These imply that a larger fraction of the world will evolve to experience multiple gears of land-atmosphere coupling, with the strongly coupled transitional regime expanding the most. This could amplify future climate sensitivity to land-atmosphere feedbacks and land management.

Climate-driven vegetation greening further reduces water availability in drylands

Climate change alters surface water availability (WA; precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P - ET) and consequently impacts agricultural production and societal water needs, leading to increasing concerns on the sustainability of water use. Although the direct effects of climate change on WA have long been recognized and assessed, indirect climate effects occurring through adjustments in terrestrial vegetation are more subtle and not yet fully quantified. To address this knowledge gap, here we investigate the interplay between climate-induced changes in leaf area index (LAI) and ET and quantify its ultimate effect on WA during the period 1982-2016 at the global scale, using an ensemble of data-driven products and land surface models. We show that ~44% of the global vegetated land has experienced a significant increase in growing season-averaged LAI and climate change explains 33.5% of this greening signal. Such climate-induced greening has enhanced ET of 0.051 ± 0.067 mm year^-2 (mean ± SD), further amplifying the ongoing increase in ET directly driven by variations in climatic factors over 36.8% of the globe, and thus exacerbating the decline in WA prominently in drylands. These findings highlight the indirect impact of positive feedbacks in the land-climate system on the decline of WA, and call for an in-depth evaluation of these phenomena in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.

Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale

Heat waves are among the deadliest climate hazards. Yet the relative importance of the physical processes causing their near-surface temperature anomalies (𝑇')-advection of air from climatologically warmer regions, adiabatic warming in subsiding air and diabatic heating-is still a matter of debate. Here we quantify the importance of these processes by evaluating the 𝑇' budget along air-parcel backward trajectories. We first show that the extreme near-surface 𝑇' during the June 2021 heat wave in western North America was produced primarily by diabatic heating and, to a smaller extent, by adiabatic warming. Systematically decomposing 𝑇' during the hottest days of each year (TX1day events) in 1979-2020 globally, we find strong geographical variations with a dominance of advection over mid-latitude oceans, adiabatic warming near mountain ranges and diabatic heating over tropical and subtropical land masses. In many regions, however, TX1day events arise from a combination of these processes. In the global mean, TX1day anomalies form along trajectories over roughly 60 h and 1,000 km, although with large regional variability. This study thus reveals inherently non-local and regionally distinct formation pathways of hot extremes, quantifies the crucial factors determining their magnitude and enables new quantitative ways of climate model evaluation regarding hot extremes.

Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability

Quantifying the resilience of vegetated ecosystems is key to constraining both present-day and future global impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Here we apply both empirical and theoretical resilience metrics to remotely-sensed vegetation data in order to examine the role of water availability and variability in controlling vegetation resilience at the global scale. We find a concise global relationship where vegetation resilience is greater in regions with higher water availability. We also reveal that resilience is lower in regions with more pronounced inter-annual precipitation variability, but find less concise relationships between vegetation resilience and intra-annual precipitation variability. Our results thus imply that the resilience of vegetation responds differently to water deficits at varying time scales. In view of projected increases in precipitation variability, our findings highlight the risk of ecosystem degradation under ongoing climate change.

Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework

Climate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, and temporal scale of causal linkages between dry and hot extremes remain underexplored. Here using the concept of system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extreme event networks and quantify the magnitude, temporal-scale, and physical drivers of cascading effects (CEs) of drying-on-heating and vice-versa, across the globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extremes generally coincide. However, the CEs differ strongly in their timescale of interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, and sensitivity to changes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and background aridity. The CE of drying-on-heating in the hotspot locations reaches its peak immediately driven by the compounding influence of vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. In contrast, the CE of heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated by concurrent changes in potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and net-radiation with the effect of vapor pressure deficit being strongly controlled by ecosystem isohydricity and background aridity. Our results help improve our understanding of the causal linkages and the predictability of compound extremes and related impacts.

Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes

Heat extremes have grown disproportionately since the advent of industrialization and are expected to intensify further under unabated greenhouse warming, spreading unevenly across the globe. However, amplification mechanisms are highly uncertain because of the complex interplay between regional physical responses to human forcing and the statistical properties of atmospheric temperatures. Here, focusing on the latter, we explain how and to what extent the leading moments of thermal distributions sway the future trajectories of heat extremes. Crucially, we show that daily temperature variability is the key to understanding global patterns of change in the frequency and severity of the extremes and their exacerbation in many places. Variability accounts for at least half of the highly differential regional sensitivities and may well outweigh the background warming. These findings provide fundamental insights for assessing the reliability of climate models and improving their future projections.

Land-atmosphere coupling speeds up flash drought onset

Flash drought is a type of drought with rapid onset and great destructiveness, which poses a serious threat to agriculture, ecosystem, and environment without sufficient early warning. The rapid onset is a unique feature that distinguishes flash drought from conventional dry conditions, but its underlying mechanism remains unclear. With the 42-years reanalysis data, we compared the differences in convective triggering potential and atmospheric humidity indices between flash drought onset and conventional dry conditions over China. We found that the dry land-atmospheric coupling can speed up flash drought onset by suppressing precipitation and increasing evapotranspiration. Results show that the increase of sensible heat transport during flash drought onset can intensify the heating of atmosphere, and enhance the lifting condensation level deficit which efficiently inhibits the convective precipitation. Meanwhile, the atmospheric drying significantly increases the evapotranspiration demand and decreases soil moisture, thus speeds up the drought onset. In this regard, the drier land surface makes the atmosphere drier through land-atmosphere coupling, and the rapid drought onset can be maintained via the positive feedback. Although the contribution of precipitation deficit averaged over China is 92 %, the evapotranspiration excess is also critical for increasing the onset speed especially over South China where the flash drought hotspot exists. With the contribution of evapotranspiration increased by about 26 %, the flash drought onset speed over China almost doubled. This study highlights the importance of dry land-atmospheric coupling for speeding up flash drought onset and provides insights for flash drought diagnosis and prediction.

The trend and spatial spread of multisectoral climate extremes in CMIP6 models

Climate change could exacerbate extreme climate events. This study investigated the global and continental representations of fourteen multisectoral climate indices during the historical (1979-2014), near future (2025-2060) and far future (2065-2100) periods under two emission scenarios, in eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) General Circulation Models (GCM). We ranked the GCMs based on five metrics centred on their temporal and spatial performances. Most models followed the reference pattern during the historical period. MPI-ESM ranked best in replicating the daily precipitation intensity (DPI) in Africa, while CANESM5 GCM ranked first in heatwave index (HI), maximum consecutive dry days (MCCD). Across the different continents, MPI-LR GCM performed best in replicating the DPI, except in Africa. The model ranks could provide valuable information when selecting appropriate GCM ensembles when focusing on climate extremes. A global evaluation of the multi-index causal effects for the various indices shows that the dry spell total length (DSTL) was the most crucial index modulating the MCCD for all continents. Also, most indices exhibited a positive climate change signal from the historical to the future. Therefore, it is crucial to design appropriate strategies to strengthen resilience to extreme climatic events while mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Considering the severe impacts of compound dry and hot extremes, we examine the primary drivers of CDHEs during the summer monsoon in India. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we show that most of the CDHEs in India occur during the droughts caused by the summer monsoon rainfall deficit. Despite a decline in the frequency of summer monsoon droughts in recent decades, increased CDHEs are mainly driven by warming and dry spells during the summer monsoon particularly in the Northeast, central northeast, and west central regions. A strong land-atmospheric coupling during droughts in the summer monsoon season leads to frequent CDHEs in the Northwest and southern peninsular regions. Furthermore, regional variations in land-atmospheric coupling cause substantial differences in the CDHE occurrence in different parts of the country. Summer monsoon rainfall variability and increased warming can pose a greater risk of compound dry and hot extremes with severe impacts on various sectors in India.

Heat Extremes Driven by Amplification of Phase-Locked Circumglobal Waves Forced by Topography in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

Heatwaves are persistent temperature extremes associated with devastating impacts on human societies and ecosystems. In the midlatitudes, amplified quasi-stationary Rossby waves have been identified as a key mechanism for heatwave occurrence. Amplified waves with preferred longitudinal locations lead to concurrent extremes in specific locations. It is therefore important to identify the essential components in the climate system that contribute to phase-locking of wave patterns. Here, we investigate the role of dry atmospheric dynamics and topography in causing concurrent heatwaves by using an idealized general circulation model. Topography is included in the model experiments as a Gaussian mountain. Our results show that amplified Rossby waves exhibit clear phase-locking behavior and a decrease in the zonal phase speed when a large-scale localized topographic forcing is imposed, leading to concurrent heat extremes at preferred locations.

Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Legume Crops

Climate change is likely to have severe impacts on food security in the topics as these regions of the world have both the highest human populations and narrower climatic niches, which reduce the diversity of suitable crops. Legume crops are of particular importance to food security, supplying dietary protein for humans both directly and in their use for feed and forage. Other than the rhizobia associated with legumes, soil microbes, in particular arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), can mitigate the effects of biotic and abiotic stresses, offering an important complementary measure to protect crop yields. This review presents current knowledge on AMF, highlights their beneficial role, and explores the potential for application of AMF in mitigating abiotic and biotic challenges for tropical legumes. Due to the relatively little study on tropical legume species compared to their temperate growing counterparts, much further research is needed to determine how similar AMF-plant interactions are in tropical legumes, which AMF species are optimal for agricultural deployment and especially to identify anaerobic AMF species that could be used to mitigate flood stress in tropical legume crop farming. These opportunities for research also require international cooperation and support, to realize the promise of tropical legume crops to contribute to future food security.

Vegetation impact on atmospheric moisture transport under increasing land-ocean temperature contrasts

Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger transitions in moisture availability remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarize the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport: an increase of sensible heat flux upon deforestation raises land surface temperature and this can elevate the temperature difference between land and ocean beyond the threshold. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation.

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Consideration of condensation dynamics reveals temperature-related tipping points.

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Additional heat over land can block oceanic moisture import causing severe drought.

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As the land warms faster than the ocean, these tipping thresholds approach.

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Deforestation increases sensible heat and exacerbates these water cycle extremes.