Effects of interaction of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulations on precipitation dynamics in China

Different scenarios of precipitation, that lead to such phenomena as droughts and floods are influenced by concurrent multiple teleconnection factors. However, the multivariate relationship between precipitation indices and teleconnection factors, including large-scale atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperature signals in China, is rarely explored. Understanding this relationship is crucial for drought early warning systems and effective response strategies. In this study, we comprehensively investigated the combined effects of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation changes in China. Specifically, Pearson correlation analysis and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) were used to identify the primary teleconnection factors influencing precipitation dynamics. Furthermore, we used the cross-wavelet method to elucidate the temporal lag and periodic relationships between multiple teleconnection factors and their interactions. Finally, the multiple wavelet coherence analysis method was used to identify the dominant two-factor and three-factor combinations shaping precipitation dynamics. This analysis facilitated the quantification and determination of interaction types and influencing pathways of teleconnection factors on precipitation dynamics, respectively. The results showed that: (1) the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were dominant teleconnection factors influencing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dynamics; (2) significant correlation and leading or lagging relationships at different timescales generally existed for various teleconnection factors, where AMO was mainly leading the other factors with positive correlation, while ENSO and Southern Oscillation (SO) were mainly lagging behind other factors with prolonged correlations; and (3) the interactions between teleconnection factors were quantified into three types: enhancing, independent and offsetting effects. Specifically, the enhancing effect of two-factor combinations was stronger than the offsetting effect, where AMO + NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AMO + AO (Atlantic Oscillation) had a larger distribution area in southern China. Conversely, the offsetting effect of three-factor combinations was more significant than that of the two-factor combinations, which was mainly distributed in northeast and northwest regions of China. This study sheds new light on the mechanisms of modulation and pathways of influencing various large-scale factors on seasonal precipitation dynamics.

Meteorological drought migration characteristics based on an improved spatiotemporal structure approach in the Loess Plateau of China

The development of drought has spatial and temporal synchronization. Previous studies usually explore the spatial and temporal evolution of drought separately. Moreover, existing approaches are based on a fixed overlapping area and do not consider the variable drought cluster area during development. This study proposes an improved and simple approach to derive dynamic overlapping area threshold for 3-dimensional droughts extraction. Based on the one monthly Nonparametric Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI), this improved approach was applied for investigating the migration characteristics of meteorological drought events in the Loess Plateau of China. Then, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting model with Shapley additive explanation values were used to quantify the importance of driving factors on the dynamics of drought characteristics. The results showed that: (1) the improved approach has a better performance on identifying prolonged droughts than the method using a fixed overlap area threshold; (2) spatially, meteorological drought events with high severity (DS), long duration (DD), large effected area (DA) and fast migration velocity (DV) mainly occur in the central region; (3) temporally, droughts are expected to aggravate with significantly increased DS and DA which are mainly caused by increased temperature and vegetation; and (4) meteorological droughts have a preferred westward migration direction and three dominant migration paths, which are crucial for local drought prevention and control. The findings of this study provide new perspectives on drought migration characteristics, which are important for the exploration of drought-driven mechanisms, risk assessment and future prediction.

The negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics

There are complex bidirectional feedback relationships among different types of droughts (e.g., meteorological and agricultural droughts). As agricultural drought intensifies, meteorological drought response to agricultural drought may be changed from negative to positive feedback. Nevertheless, the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought and their dynamics have remained unsolved. Herein, we proposed a new quantitative method to characterize the mutual feedback between meteorological drought and agricultural drought based on the vine copula function for the first time in this study. The negative-positive feedback transition threshold and the sensitivity of the feedback were quantified under certain drought conditions. In order to investigate the feedback relationship dynamics under a changing environment, the total study period was evenly divided into two stages: stage 1 (1982-1999) and stage 2 (2000-2018). Finally, the random forest method was used to explore the dominant factors on the transition threshold. Results indicate that: (1) the negative-positive feedback transition thresholds in August is generally lower than June and July in mainland China, the basin with large threshold is the Southwest River Basin; (2) the sensitivity of meteorological drought in response to agricultural drought was higher in positive feedback than in negative feedback; (3) the transition thresholds of stage 2 was mostly reduced, while the feedback sensitivity of positive feedback was mostly increased; and (4) compared with the single factor, the land-meteorological coupling strength (the correlation between precipitation and soil moisture) dominants the negative-positive feedback transition threshold. This study sheds new insights into droughts feedback.

Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China

Agricultural drought posing a significant threat to agricultural production is subject to the complex influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors. Nevertheless, which factor dominating the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamic impact remain equivocal. To address this knowledge gap, we used ERA5 soil moisture to calculate the standardized soil moisture index (SSI) to characterize agricultural drought. The extreme gradient boosting model was then adopted to fully examine the influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors on agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamics in China. Meanwhile, the Shapley additive explanation values were introduced to quantify the contribution of multiple drivers to drought characteristics. Our analysis reveals that the drought frequency, severity and duration in China ranged from 5-70, 2.15-35.02 and 1.76-31.20, respectively. Drought duration is increasing and drought intensity is intensifying in southeast, north and northwest China. In addition, potential evapotranspiration is the most significant driver of drought characteristics at the basin scale. Regarding the dynamic evolution of drought characteristics, the percentages of raster points for drought duration and severity with evapotranspiration as the dominant factor are 30.7 % and 32.7 %, and the percentages with precipitation are 35.3 % and 35.0 %, respectively. Precipitation in northern regions has a positive effect on decreasing drought characteristics, while in southern regions, evapotranspiration dominates the dynamics in drought characteristics due to increasing vegetation transpiration. Moreover, the drought severity is exacerbated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins, while the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the drought duration evolution is increasing in the Yangtze River basin. Generally, this study sheds new insights into agricultural drought evolution and driving mechanism, which are beneficial for agricultural drought early warning and mitigation.

Varying response of vegetation to sea ice dynamics over the Arctic

Recent reduction of sea ice may have contributed to vegetation growth over the Arctic through albedo feedback effects to atmospheric warming. Understanding the varying response of vegetation to sea ice dynamics is critical for predicting future climate change over the Arctic and middle-high latitudes. Instead of looking at the direct response characteristics, we perform a systematic analysis of the time-lag and time-cumulation responses of vegetation to sea ice dynamics, using a long-term Arctic Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset and three sea ice indices (sea ice concentration (SIC), sea ice area (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE)) from 1982 to 2015. The results show that annual NDVI in the Arctic has exhibited a significant (p < 0.05) increase during 1982 to 2015, while a significant (p < 0.05) decrease is detected for annual SIC, SIA and SIE. The results of a regression analysis on NDVI identify a lag time of 7-months, 8-months and 9-months for vegetation response to SIC, SIA and SIE in February, March and April, respectively, while no evident lag response is observed in summer except for August. For the cumulation response, NDVI in February, March and April shows the largest response to the previous 5, 7 and 9 months of sea ice variations, respectively, while a short cumulation response of 1 to 3 months is found in summer. The differences in the spatial patterns of lagged time are usually not statistically significant in autumn and winter. A shorter lag response (1-3 month) is found in the Yamalia region in June. Further analysis suggests that vegetation response to sea ice dynamics depends on bio - climatic characteristics and soil pH, with vegetation responding faster to sea ice changes in acidic soil. This study provides observational evidences on the varying response of vegetation to sea ice dynamics over the Arctic, which has great implications for predicting vegetation-climate feedback and climate change.

Synergistic effect of drought and rainfall events of different patterns on watershed systems

The increase in extreme climate events such as flooding and droughts predicted by the general circulation models (GCMs) is expected to significantly affect hydrological processes, erosive dynamics, and their associated nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, resulting in a major challenge to water availability for human life and ecosystems. Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran model, we evaluated the synergistic effects of droughts and rainfall events on hydrology and water quality in an upstream catchment of the Miyun Reservoir based on the outputs of five GCMs. It showed substantial increases in air temperature, precipitation intensity, frequency of heavy rains and rainstorms, and drought duration, as well as sediment and nutrient loads in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Sustained droughts followed by intense precipitation could cause complex interactions and mobilize accumulated sediment, nutrients and other pollutants into surface water that pose substantial risks to the drinking water security, with the comprehensive effects of soil water content, antecedent drought duration, precipitation amount and intensity, and other climate characteristics, although the effects varied greatly under different rainfall patterns. The Methods and findings of this study evidence the synergistic impacts of droughts and heavy rainfall on watershed system and the significant effects of initial soil moisture conditions on water quantity and quality, and help to guide a robust adaptive management system for future drinking water supply.

Where is the Planetary Boundary for freshwater being exceeded because of livestock farming?

Livestock production has significant impacts on the environment, including due to the use of water. In this study, we provide a spatially explicit estimation of livestock blue water use, by analyzing feed crop water use and livestock drinking water. For the past four decades, livestock water use has increased from 145 km3/year in 1971 to 270 km3/year in 2012 with an increasing trend of 1.36%/year. The proportion of livestock drinking water use has remained relatively stable at around 10% of total water use attributable to livestock production. Several hotspots of water use, including eastern China, northern India, US high plains, are identified in terms of the long-term averages, while South America and Central Africa show the most rapidly increasing trends. In USA, climate change is found to contribute most to the changes in water use attributable to livestock, while feed cropping intensity and land use change are the dominant driver in China and India, respectively. Though, in total, livestock water use makes a relatively modest contribution to the Planetary Boundary (PB) that has been proposed for anthropogenic water use (4000 km3/year), we argue that this aggregate number is not particularly meaningful, so we identify places where livestock is a major contributor to the unsustainable use of water, in northern India, part of the Middle East, Northern China and Central US. 7% of rivers where excessive water withdrawals mean that there is insufficient residual flow to sustain the aquatic environment (which we take to be the local manifestation of a PB) have been tipped over that boundary because of livestock farming, whilst in a further 34% of rivers, livestock farming on its own exceeds the water PB. Our results provide new and more geographically specific evidence about the impact that the meat industry makes on the PB for water.

Time-scale dependent mechanism of atmospheric CO2 concentration drivers of watershed water-energy balance

The elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂), as a key variable linking human activities and climate change, seriously affects the watershed hydrological processes. However, whether and how atmospheric CO₂ influences the watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales have not been revealed. Based on long-term hydrometeorological data, the variation of non-stationary parameter n series in the Choudhury's equation in the mainstream of the Wei River Basin (WRB), the Jing River Basin (JRB) and Beiluo River Basin (BLRB), three typical Loess Plateau regions in China, was examined. Subsequently, the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was applied to explore the impact of CO₂ on watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales. Results indicate that (1) in the context of warming and drying condition, annual n series in the WRB displays a significantly increasing trend, while that in the JRB and BLRB presents non-significantly decreasing trends; (2) the non-stationary n series was divided into 3-, 7-, 18-, exceeding 18-year time scale oscillations and a trend residual. In the WRB and BLRB, the overall variation of n was dominated by the residual, whereas in the JRB it was dominated by the 7-year time scale oscillation; (3) the relationship between CO₂ concentration and n series was significant in the WRB except for 3-year time scale. In the JRB, CO₂ concentration and n series were significantly correlated on the 7- and exceeding 7-year time scales, while in the BLRB, such a significant relationship existed only on the 18- and exceeding 18-year time scales. (4) CO₂-driven temperature rise and vegetation greening elevated the aridity index and evaporation ratio, thus impacting watershed water-energy balance dynamics. This study provided a deeper explanation for the possible impact of CO₂ concentration on the watershed hydrological processes.

Predicting spatial and temporal variability in crop yields: an inter-comparison of machine learning, regression and process-based models

Pervious assessments of crop yield response to climate change are mainly aided with either process-based models or statistical models, with a focus on predicting the changes in average yields, whilst there is growing interest in yield variability and extremes. In this study, we simulate US maize yield using process-based models, traditional regression model and a machine-learning algorithm, and importantly, identify the weakness and strength of each method in simulating the average, variability and extremes of maize yield across the country. We show that both regression and machine learning models can well reproduce the observed pattern of yield averages, while large bias is found for process-based crop models even fed with harmonized parameters. As for the probability distribution of yields, machine learning shows the best skill, followed by regression model and process-based models. For the country as a whole, machine learning can explain 93% of observed yield variability, followed by regression model (51%) and process-based models (42%). Based on the improved capability of the machine learning algorithm, we estimate that US maize yield is projected to decrease by 13.5% under the 2°C global warming scenario (by ~2050s). Yields less than or equal to the 10^th percentile in the yield distribution for the baseline period are predicted to occur in 19% and 25% of years in 1.5°C (by ~2040s) and 2°C global warming scenarios, with potentially significant implications for food supply, prices and trade. The machine learning and regression methods are computationally much more efficient than process-based models, making it feasible to do probabilistic risk analysis of climate impacts on crop production for a wide range of future scenarios.

Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels

What the extent of meteorological drought could trigger the corresponding hydrological drought with different levels? This question is an important topic in the field of drought propagation, which however has not been resolved. Therefore, a novel model based on a Bayesian network was proposed to address this issue in this study. In this model, the drought pooling and excluding methods were applied to eliminate minor drought events. A drought matching approach based on drought propagation time was proposed to achieve the one by one matching between different types of drought. Moreover, based on the matched drought events and the copula-based conditional probability model, the drought propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels were determined. In addition, the interval conditional probability was calculated to further explore the sensitivity of hydrological drought response to different meteorological drought conditions. Furthermore, the propagation ratio was proposed to characterize the differences of drought propagation threshold among various regions. The Wei River Basin was selected as a case study. Results indicated that the results of drought propagation threshold were reliable and accurate. The increase of interval conditional probability showed a typical S-curve, which can intuitively obtain the probability of hydrological drought occurrence at different levels under specific meteorological drought condition, so as to effectively guide drought preparedness and mitigation. The propagation ratio can describe the overall resistance of the basin to meteorological drought, and it mainly depended on the meteorological and underlying surface conditions as well as groundwater supply.

Watershed water-energy balance dynamics and their association with diverse influencing factors at multiple time scales

The Budyko parameter, which controls the shape of Budyko curve, represents the superimposed impact of various periodic factors (including climatic factors, catchment characteristics, large-scale climate patterns, solar activity and anthropogenic activity) on the watershed water-energy balance dynamics. However, this superimposition is not conducive to identifying the drivers of Budyko parameter dynamics at different time scales, and thus affects parameter estimation. Here we obtain the Budyko parameter ω in the Fu's equation (one form of the Budyko framework) for the Wei River Basin (WRB), and then adopt the Empirical Mode Decomposition method to reveal the relationships between factors and ω series at multiple time scales by considering the interplay among different influencing factors. Results indicate that (1) ω series are decomposed into 4-, 12-, 20-, exceeding 20-year time scale oscillations and a residual component with an significantly increasing trend in the mainstream of the WRB, a non-significantly decreasing trend in the Jing River Basin and Beiluo River Basin; (2) by analyzing the residual trend component, evaporation ratio, soil moisture and effective irrigated area are found to induce the significant increase of ω in the upstream of the WRB, whereas that in the middle and lower reaches is dominated by baseflow and Niño 3.4; (3) ω dynamics at the 4-year time scale is dominated by evaporation ratio, aridity index, baseflow and soil moisture; baseflow, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspots attribute to the dynamics at 12-year time scale; all the factors except baseflow and soil moisture contribute to the dynamics at 20- or exceeding 20-year time scales. The results of this study will help identify the connection between watershed water-energy balance dynamics and changing environment at multiple time scales, and also be beneficial for guiding water resources management and ecological development planning on the Loess Plateau.

Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa

Understanding historical patterns of changes in drought is essential for drought adaptation and mitigation. While the negative impacts of drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) have attracted increasing attention, a comprehensive and long-term spatiotemporal assessment of drought is still lacking. Here, we provided a comprehensive spatiotemporal drought pattern analysis during the period of 1964-2015 over the GHA. The Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at various timescales (1 month (SPEI-01), 3 month (SPEI-03), 6 month (SPEI-06), and 12 month (SPEI-12)) was used to investigate drought patterns on a monthly, seasonal, and interannual basis. The results showed that despite regional differences, an overall increasing tendency of drought was observed across the GHA over the past 52 yr, with trends of change of -0.0017 yr^-1, -0.0036 yr^-1, -0.0031 yr^-1, and -0.0023 yr^-1 for SPEI-01, SPEI-03, SPEI-06, and SPEI-12, respectively. Droughts were more frequent, persistent, and intense in Sudan and Tanzania, while more severe droughts were found in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Droughts occurred frequently before the 1990 s, and then became intermittent with large-scale impacts occurred during 1973-1974, 1984-1985, and 2010-2011. A turning point was also detected in 1989, with the SPEI showing a statistically significant downward trend during 1964-1989 and a non-statistically significant downward trend from 1990 to 2015. Seasonally, droughts exhibited an increasing trend in winter, spring, and summer, but a decreasing trend in autumn. The research findings have significant implications for drought adaptation and mitigation strategies through identifying the hotspot regions across the GHA at various timescales. Area-specific efforts are required to alleviate environmental and societal vulnerabilities to drought events.

Assessing the non-stationarity of low flows and their scale-dependent relationships with climate and human forcing

It is necessary to assess the non-stationarity of a hydrological series under changing environments. This study aimed to determine the validity of the stationarity of low flow series in terms of trends and possible change points, as well as the time-scale that is responsible for the production of trends and change points in low flow series. Further, we investigated how climatic variables affect low flow variations by studying their scale-dependent relationships. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test, heuristic segmentation method, discrete wavelet transform, and Pearson correlation coefficient were co-utilized to achieve these objectives. The Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical Loess Plateau region in China, was selected as the case study. Results showed significantly decreasing trends and change points in the low flow series, indicating that its stationarity assumption is invalid. The 2-year and 4-year events were the most important time-scales contributing to the trend of the original low flow series, and the 8-year periodic scale was the most influential frequency component for change point generation. Additionally, the strongest scale-dependent relationships among high frequency components (2-year and 4-year scales) of the low flow series and climatic variables (precipitation, potential evaporation, and soil moisture) demonstrated the importance of climatic factors for driving the trends of a low flow series. In contrast, human activities, including water withdrawals and water and soil conservation projects showed strong influences on the non-stationarity of low flows via affecting the low frequency component (8-year frequency and approximate components). These findings contribute to a better understanding temporal variations of low flow and their responses to changing environments, and the results also would be helpful for local water resources management as well as agricultural and ecological sustainable development.

Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling

Despite the fact that it is the total crop production that shapes future food supply rather than one of its single component, previous studies have mainly focused on the changes in crop yield. It is possible that recent gains in crop production are mainly due to improvement of yield rather than growth of harvest area. However, it remains unclear about the geographical patterns of their relative contributions at fine scales and the possible mechanisms. Analysis of US maize production shows that maize production has increased significantly at a rate of 2.1%/year during 1980-2010. Although yield is the dominant factor contributing to production growth for the country as a whole, the importance of harvest area has become more evident with time. In 56% of US's maize growing counties, harvest area has also contributed more than yield to production changes. High spatial correlation between the change rates of harvest area and production is observed (R = 0.96), while a weak relation (R = 0.21) is found between the spatial patterns of yield and production. This suggests that harvest area has exerted the dominant role in modulating the spatial distribution pattern of maize production changes. Further analysis suggests that yield and harvest area respond differently to climate variability, which has great implications for adaptation strategies. Comparing 11 state-of-the-art crop model simulations against census data reveals large bias in the simulated spatial patterns of maize production. Nevertheless, such bias can be reduced substantially by incorporating the observed dynamics of harvest area, pointing to a potential pathway for future model improvement. This study highlights the importance of accounting for harvest area dynamics in assessing agricultural production empirically or with crop models.

Can We Use Satellite-Based FAPAR to Detect Drought?

Drought in Australia has widespread impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. Satellite-based Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) has great potential to monitor and assess drought impacts on vegetation greenness and health. Various FAPAR products based on satellite observations have been generated and made available to the public. However, differences remain among these datasets due to different retrieval methodologies and assumptions. The Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) project recently developed a quality assurance framework to provide understandable and traceable quality information for Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The QA4ECV FAPAR is one of these ECVs. The aim of this study is to investigate the capability of QA4ECV FAPAR for drought monitoring in Australia. Through spatial and temporal comparison and correlation analysis with widely used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT)/PROBA-V FAPAR generated by Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index, as well as the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture, the study shows that the QA4ECV FAPAR can support agricultural drought monitoring and assessment in Australia. The traceable and reliable uncertainties associated with the QA4ECV FAPAR provide valuable information for applications that use the QA4ECV FAPAR dataset in the future.

Evidence-based medicine meets democracy: the role of evidence-based public health guidelines in local government

Background

In 2013, many public health functions transferred from the National Health Service to local government in England. From 2006 NICE had produced public health guidelines based on the principles of evidence-based medicine. This study explores how the guidelines were received in the new environment in local government and related issues raised relating to the use of evidence in local authoritites.

Methods

In depth, interviews with 31 elected members and officers, including Directors of Public Health, from four very different local government organizations (‘local authorities’).

Results

Participants reported that (i) there were tensions between evidence-based, and political decision-making; (ii) there were differences in views about what constituted ‘good’ evidence and (iii) that organizational life is an important mediator in the way evidence is used.

Conclusions

Democratic political decision-making does not necessarily naturally align with decision-making based on evidence from the international scientific literature, and local knowledge and local evidence are very important in the ways that public health decisions are made.

Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin

Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.

From the National Health Service to local government: perceptions of public health transition in England

OBJECTIVES

In England, in 2013, responsibility for some public health (PH) functions transferred from the National Health Service (NHS) to local government. This moved PH from a health-focussed into a broader and more politically oriented context. This article reports on the perceptions of those involved in this transition about how the PH function was changing as it transited to local government.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional interview study.

METHODS

The study included semi-structured interviews with 31 local government councillors, directors and deputy directors of PH, PH team members and members of clinical commissioning groups. Interviews and data analysis were informed by a theoretical framework, COM-B and an inductive and deductive approach was taken to identify relevant themes.

RESULTS

There was a mixed picture of perceived gains and losses for PH. The transition from NHS to local government was seen by some as a 'homecoming', providing the opportunity for PH to have further reach through influence and collaboration with departments like housing, transport and planning. The opportunity to promote evidence-based practice across local government was also seen as a positive aspect of the transition. However, professional roles of PH and individual PH practitioners were perceived to have less influence and autonomy than in the NHS, with some uncertainty about roles within local government. PH practitioners perceived the need to develop other skills to fulfil their roles in local government. Shorter timescales for action and pressure for faster responses were reported to be the reason for less emphasis on using PH evidence to inform policy and decision-making than hitherto in the NHS.

CONCLUSION

This study illustrates a variety of consequences of transitioning from NHS to local government. There were perceived benefits afforded by proximity to related local government departments but at the costs of reduction in status for PH practitioners and working to a timescale which in some cases reduced drawing on scientific evidence.

Comparison of urbanization and climate change impacts on urban flood volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation

Understanding the drivers behind urban floods is critical for reducing its devastating impacts to human and society. This study investigates the impacts of recent urban development on hydrological runoff and urban flood volumes in a major city located in northern China, and compares the urbanization impacts with the effects induced by climate change under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We then quantify the role of urban drainage system in mitigating flood volumes to inform future adaptation strategies. A geo-spatial database on landuse types, surface imperviousness and drainage systems is developed and used as inputs into the SWMM urban drainage model to estimate the flood volumes and related risks under various urbanization and climate change scenarios. It is found that urbanization has led to an increase in annual surface runoff by 208 to 413%, but the changes in urban flood volumes can vary greatly depending on performance of drainage system along the development. Specifically, changes caused by urbanization in expected annual flood volumes are within a range of 194 to 942%, which are much higher than the effects induced by climate change under the RCP 2.6 scenario (64 to 200%). Through comparing the impacts of urbanization and climate change on urban runoff and flood volumes, this study highlights the importance for re-assessment of current and future urban drainage in coping with the changing urban floods induced by local and large-scale changes.

Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future

Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2 < SPI < -0.8), severe (-1.5 < SPI < -1.3), extreme (-1.9 < SPI < -1.6) and exceptional (SPI < -2.0) drought. Results show that there is >80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO₂ fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.

Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C reduces future risk of yield loss in the United States: A probabilistic modeling approach

This study assess the possible outcomes of yield changes in the United States which is responsible for 40% of global maize supply under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios. Instead of providing deterministic estimates, this study introduces a probability-based approach that allow for examination of the associated probability of each outcome, which has great implications for decision-makings. Results show distinct spatial patterns in future yield loss risk associated with temperature rise at the county scale, with highest probability in central and southeastern US, and lowest risk in western US and high production regions such as Iowa. Comparing the estimates under 1.5 °C global warming against that in 2.0 °C warming indicates that keeping global warming within 1.5 °C has great benefits for reducing future yield loss risk. Based on the ensemble mean of 97 climate model simulations, the risk of yield dropping below historical long-term mean is projected to decrease from 81% to 75% for the country as a whole. Such benefit is more evident when considering the risk of yield reduction by 10% and 20%, which is expected to decrease by 25% and 28%, respectively. This suggests that constraining global temperature rise to 1.5 °C has more benefits for reducing extreme yield reductions. Spatially, keeping global warming within 1.5 °C would benefit more in Missouri, South Dakota, Eastern Kansas, Southern Texas and southeastern part of the country than other regions, highlighting the spatially variable benefits of climate mitigation efforts. The analysis framework introduced in this study can also be easily extended to other regions and crops. The results of this study highlight the areas where maize yield is most vulnerable to temperature rise, and the spatially variable benefits for reducing yield loss risk by keeping global warming within 1.5 °C.

Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota, Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes.

Evidence for a weakening strength of temperature-corn yield relation in the United States during 1980-2010

Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO₂ fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (R_{GST_CY}) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in association with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K--3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in R_{GST_CY} are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, but are partly reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period.

Effects of lateral olfactory tract stimulation on Fos immunoreactivity in vasopressin neurones of the rat piriform cortex

In the main olfactory system, odours are registered at the main olfactory epithelium and are then processed at the main olfactory bulb (MOB) and, subsequently, by the anterior olfactory nucleus (AON), the piriform cortex (PC) and the cortical amygdala. Previously, we reported populations of vasopressin neurones in different areas of the rat olfactory system, including the MOB, accessory olfactory bulb (AOB) and the AON and showed that these are involved in the coding of social odour information. Utilising immunohistochemistry and a transgenic rat in which an enhanced green fluorescent protein reporter gene is expressed in vasopressin neurones (eGFP-vasopressin), we now show a population of vasopressin neurones in the PC. The vasopressin neurones are predominantly located in the layer II of the PC and the majority co-express the excitatory transmitter glutamate. Furthermore, there is no sex difference in the number of neurones expressing vasopressin. Electrical stimulation of the lateral olfactory tract leads to a significant increase in the number of Fos-positive nuclei in the PC, MOB, AOB, dorsal AON and supraoptic nucleus (SON). However, there was only a significant increase in Fos expression in vasopressin cells of the PC and SON. Thus, functionally distinct populations of vasopressin cells are implicated in olfactory processing at multiple stages of the olfactory pathway.

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.

Effect of Melanotan-II on Brain Fos Immunoreactivity and Oxytocin Neuronal Activity and Secretion in Rats

Melanocortins stimulate the central oxytocin systems that are involved in regulating social behaviours. Alterations in central oxytocin have been linked to neurological disorders such as autism, and melanocortins have been proposed for therapeutic treatment. In the present study, we investigated how systemic administration of melanotan-II (MT-II), a melanocortin agonist, affects oxytocin neuronal activity and secretion in rats. The results obtained show that i.v., but not intranasal, administration of MT-II markedly induced Fos expression in magnocellular neurones of the supraoptic (SON) and paraventricular nuclei (PVN) of the hypothalamus, and this response was attenuated by prior i.c.v. administration of the melanocortin antagonist, SHU-9119. Electrophysiological recordings from identified magnocellular neurones of the SON showed that i.v. administration of MT-II increased the firing rate in oxytocin neurones but did not trigger somatodendritic oxytocin release within the SON as measured by microdialysis. Our data suggest that, after i.v., but not intranasal, administration of MT-II, the activity of magnocellular neurones of the SON is increased. Because previous studies showed that SON oxytocin neurones are inhibited in response to direct application of melanocortin agonists, the actions of i.v. MT-II are likely to be mediated at least partly indirectly, possibly by activation of inputs from the caudal brainstem, where MT-II also increased Fos expression.

Measuring Oxytocin and Vasopressin: Bioassays, Immunoassays and Random Numbers

In this review, we consider the ways in which vasopressin and oxytocin have been measured since their first discovery. Two different ways of measuring oxytocin in widespread use currently give values in human plasma that differ by two orders of magnitude, and the values measured by these two methods in the same samples show no correlation. The notion that we should accept this seems absurd. Either one (or both) methods is not measuring oxytocin, or, by 'oxytocin', the scientists that use these different methods mean something very different. If these communities are to talk to each other, it is important to validate one method and invalidate the other, or else to establish exactly what each community understands by 'oxytocin'. A similar issue concerns vasopressin: again, different ways of measuring vasopressin give values in human plasma that differ by two orders of magnitude, and it appears that the same explanation for discrepant oxytocin measurements applies to discrepant vasopressin measurements. The first assays for oxytocin and vasopressin measured biological activity directly. When immunoassays were introduced, they encountered problems: high molecular weight factors in raw plasma interfered with the binding of antibodies to the hormones, leading to high and erroneous readings. When these interfering factors were removed by extraction of plasma samples, immunoassays gave measurements consistent with bioassays, with measures of turnover and with the sensitivity of target tissues to exogenous hormone. However, many recent papers use an enzyme-linked immunoassay to measure plasma levels without extracting the samples. Like the first radioimmunassays of unextracted plasma, this generates impossibly high and wholly erroneous measurements.

Oxytocin Neurones: Intrinsic Mechanisms Governing the Regularity of Spiking Activity

Oxytocin neurones of the rat supraoptic nucleus are osmoresponsive and, with all other things being equal, they fire at a mean rate that is proportional to the plasma sodium concentration. However, individual spike times are governed by highly stochastic events, namely the random occurrences of excitatory synaptic inputs, the probability of which is increased by increasing extracellular osmotic pressure. Accordingly, interspike intervals (ISIs) are very irregular. In the present study, we show, by statistical analyses of firing patterns in oxytocin neurones, that the mean firing rate as measured in bins of a few seconds is more regular than expected from the variability of ISIs. This is consistent with an intrinsic activity-dependent negative-feedback mechanism. To test this, we compared observed neuronal firing patterns with firing patterns generated by a leaky integrate-and-fire model neurone, modified to exhibit activity-dependent mechanisms known to be present in oxytocin neurones. The presence of a prolonged afterhyperpolarisation (AHP) was critical for the ability to mimic the observed regularisation of mean firing rate, although we also had to add a depolarising afterpotential (DAP; sometimes called an afterdepolarisation) to the model to match the observed ISI distributions. We tested this model by comparing its behaviour with the behaviour of oxytocin neurones exposed to apamin, a blocker of the medium AHP. Good fits indicate that the medium AHP actively contributes to the firing patterns of oxytocin neurones during non-bursting activity, and that oxytocin neurones generally express a DAP, even though this is usually masked by superposition of a larger AHP.

The Peptide Oxytocin Antagonist F-792, When Given Systemically, Does Not Act Centrally in Lactating Rats

Oxytocin secreted by nerve terminals in the posterior pituitary has important actions for ensuring a successful outcome of pregnancy: it stimulates uterine contractions that lead to birth and it is essential in the milk-ejection reflex, enabling milk to be expelled from the mammary glands into the mouths of suckling young. Oxytocin also has important actions in the brain: released from dendrites of neurones that innervate the posterior pituitary, oxytocin auto-excites the neurones to fire action potentials in co-ordinated bursts, causing secretion of pulses of oxytocin. Central oxytocin actions are blocked by an oxytocin antagonist given into the brain and, consequently, milk transfer stops. Systemic peptide oxytocin antagonist (atosiban) treatment is used clinically in management of pre-term labour, a major obstetric problem. Hence, it is important to know whether an oxytocin antagonist given peripherally can enter the brain and interfere with central oxytocin actions. In the present study, we tested F792, a peptide oxytocin antagonist. In urethane-anaesthetised suckled rats, we show that the mammary gland responsiveness to oxytocin is blocked by i.v. injections of 7 μg/kg of F792, and the milk-ejection reflex is blocked when F792 is given directly into the brain at a dose of 0.2 μg. To critically test whether F792 given systemically can enter the brain, we recorded the suckling- and oxytocin-induced burst-firing of individual antidromically identified oxytocin neurones in the paraventricular nucleus. Given systemically at 100 μg/kg i.v., F792 acted only peripherally, blocking the milk-ejecting actions of oxytocin, but not the burst-firing of oxytocin neurones during suckling (n = 5 neurones in five rats). Hence, this peptide oxytocin antagonist does not enter the brain from the circulation to interfere with an essential oxytocin function in the brain. Furthermore, the functions of oxytocin in the brain evidently cannot be explored with a systemic peptide antagonist.

A Direct Neurokinin B Projection from the Arcuate Nucleus Regulates Magnocellular Vasopressin Cells of the Supraoptic Nucleus

Central administration of neurokinin B (NKB) agonists stimulates immediate early gene expression in the hypothalamus and increases the secretion of vasopressin from the posterior pituitary through a mechanism that depends on the activation of neurokinin receptor 3 receptors (NK3R). The present study reports that, in the rat, immunoreactivity for NK3R is expressed in magnocellular vasopressin and oxytocin neurones in the supraoptic nucleus (SON) and paraventricular nucleus (PVN) of the hypothalamus, and that NKB immunoreactivity is expressed in fibres in close juxtaposition with vasopressin neurones at both of these sites. Retrograde tracing in the rat shows that some NKB-expressing neurones in the arcuate nucleus project to the SON and, in mice, using an anterograde tracing approach, it is found that kisspeptin-expressing neurones of the arcuate nucleus, which are known to co-express NKB, project to the SON and PVN. Finally, i.c.v. injection of the NK3R agonist senktide is shown to potently increase the electrical activity of vasopressin neurones in the SON in vivo with no significant effect detected on oxytocin neurones. The results suggest that NKB-containing neurones in the arcuate nucleus regulate the secretion of vasopressin from magnocellular neurones in rodents, and the possible significance of this is discussed.

Oxytocinase in the female rat hypothalamus: a novel mechanism controlling oxytocin neurones during lactation

In addition to its peripheral actions, oxytocin released within the brain is important for birth and essential for milk ejection. The oxytocinase enzyme (placental leucine aminopeptidase; P-LAP) is expressed both peripherally and centrally. P-LAP controls oxytocin degradation in the uterus, placenta and plasma during pregnancy, although its role in the hypothalamus is unclear. We investigated P-LAP expression and activity in the hypothalamus in virgin, pregnant and lactating rats, as well as its role in vivo during the milk-ejection reflex. P-LAP mRNA and protein were expressed in magnocellular neurones of the supraoptic (SON) and paraventricular (PVN) nuclei. Oxytocin neurones co-expressed P-LAP without strong subcellular co-localisation of oxytocin and P-LAP, indicating that they are packaged in separate vesicles. Examination of the intracellular distribution of oxytocin and P-LAP showed a redistribution of P-LAP to within 1 μm of the plasma membrane in the somata of oxytocin neurones during lactation. Both P-LAP mRNA expression and hypothalamic leucyl/cystinyl aminopeptidase activity in the soluble fraction were higher during lactation than in late pregnant or virgin states. Inhibition of central enzyme activity by i.c.v. injection of amastatin in anaesthetised suckling mothers increased the frequency of reflex milk ejections. Because hypothalamic P-LAP expression and activity increase in lactation, and the prevention of its action mimics central oxytocin administration, we conclude that P-LAP regulates auto-excitatory oxytocin actions during the suckling-induced milk-ejection reflex.

Intranasal application of vasopressin fails to elicit changes in brain immediate early gene expression, neural activity and behavioural performance of rats

Intranasal administration has been widely used to investigate the effects of the neuropeptides vasopressin and oxytocin on human behaviour and neurological disorders, although exactly what happens when these neuropeptides are administered intranasally is far from clear. In particular, it is not clear whether a physiological significant amount of peptide enters the brain to account for the observed effects. In the present study, we investigated whether the intranasal administration of vasopressin and oxytocin to rats induces the expression of the immediate-early gene product Fos in brain areas that are sensitive to centrally-administered peptide, whether it alters neuronal activity in the way that centrally-administered peptide does, and whether it affects behaviour in the ways that are expected from studies of centrally-administered peptide. We found that, whereas i.c.v. injection of very low doses of vasopressin or oxytocin increased Fos expression in several distinct brain regions, intranasal administration of large doses of the peptides had no significant effect. By contrast to the effects of vasopressin applied topically to the main olfactory bulb, we saw no changes in the electrical activity of olfactory bulb mitral cells after intranasal vasopressin administration. In addition, vasopressin given intranasally had no significant effects on social recognition or short-term recognition memory. Finally, intranasal infusions of vasopressin had no significant effects on the parameters monitored on the elevated plus maze, a rodent model of anxiety. Our data obtained in rats suggest that, after intranasal administration, significant amounts of vasopressin and oxytocin do not reach areas in the brain at levels sufficient to change immediate early gene expression, neural activity or behaviour in the ways described for central administration of the peptides.

Systemic leptin increases the electrical activity of supraoptic nucleus oxytocin neurones in virgin and late pregnant rats

In the rat hypothalamus, fasting attenuates the expression of oxytocin and this can be reversed by exogenous leptin administration. In the present study, we investigated the effects of systemically administered leptin on the electrical activity of magnocellular neurones in the supraoptic nucleus of urethane-anaesthetised rats. In virgin female rats, systemic leptin significantly excited identified oxytocin neurones with no detected effects on the patterning of activity, as reflected by hazard function analyses. The lowest dose that was consistently effective was 100 μg/i.v., and this dose had no significant effect on vasopressin neurones. In virgin rats fasted overnight, the spontaneous firing rate of oxytocin neurones was significantly lower than in unfasted rats, although leptin had a similar excitatory effect as in unfasted rats. In late pregnant rats (days 19-21 of pregnancy), spontaneous firing rates of oxytocin neurones were higher than in virgins, and the initial response to leptin was similar to that in virgin rats, although the increase in activity was more persistent. In fasted pregnant rats, the mean spontaneous firing rate of oxytocin neurones was again lower than in unfasted rats, although leptin had no significant effect even at the higher dose of 1 mg/rat. Thus, fasting reduced the spontaneous firing rates of oxytocin neurones in nonpregnant rats, and this effect could be reversed by the excitatory effects of leptin. Pregnant rats showed some evidence of leptin resistance but only after an overnight fast.

Information coding in vasopressin neurons--the role of asynchronous bistable burst firing

The task of the vasopressin system is homeostasis, a type of process which is fundamental to the brain's regulation of the body, exists in many different systems, and is vital to health and survival. Many illnesses are related to the dysfunction of homeostatic systems, including high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes. Beyond the vasopressin system's own importance, in regulating osmotic pressure, it presents an accessible model where we can learn how the features of homeostatic systems generally relate to their function, and potentially develop treatments. The vasopressin system is an important model system in neuroscience because it presents an accessible system in which to investigate the function and importance of, for example, dendritic release and burst firing, both of which are found in many systems of the brain. We have only recently begun to understand the contribution of dendritic release to neuronal function and information processing. Burst firing has most commonly been associated with rhythm generation; in this system it clearly plays a different role, still to be understood fully.

Sexual behaviour and neuronal activation in the vomeronasal pathway and hypothalamus of food-deprived male rats

As feeding and mating are mutually-exclusive goal-orientated behaviours, we investigated whether brief food deprivation would impair the display of sexual behaviour of male rats. Analysis of performance in a sexual incentive motivation test revealed that, similar to fed males, food-deprived males preferred spending time in the vicinity of receptive females rather than nonreceptive females. Despite this, food-deprived males were more likely to be slow to mate than normally-fed males, and a low dose of the satiety peptide α-melanocyte-stimulating-hormone attenuated the effect of hunger. Using Fos immunocytochemistry, we compared neuronal activity in the vomeronasal projection pathway in response to oestrous cues from receptive females between food-deprived and fed males. As in fed males, more Fos expression was seen in the rostral part of the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis and in the medial preoptic area in food-deprived males, confirming that food-deprived males can recognise and respond to female oestrous cues. However, although there was also an increase in Fos expression in the bed nucleus of the accessory tract and in the posteromedial amygdala in fed males, no increases were seen in these areas in food-deprived rats. We also found selective attenuation in the activation of lateral posterior paraventricular nucleus (lpPVN) oxytocin neurones in food-deprived males. Taken together, the data show that, although food-deprived males can still become sexually motivated, copulation is delayed, and this is accompanied by variations in neuronal activity in the vomeronasal projection pathway. We propose that, in hungry rats, the lpPVN oxytocin neurones (which project to the spinal cord and are involved in maintaining penile erection) facilitate the transition from motivation to intromission, and their lack of activation impairs intromission, and thus delays mating.

An implementation of a spike-response model with escape noise using an avalanche diode

This paper introduces a novel probabilistic spike-response model through the combination of avalanche diode-generated Poisson distributed noise, and a standard exponential decay-based spike-response curve. The noise source, which is derived from a 0.35-μm single-photon avalanche diode (kept in the dark), was tested experimentally to verify its characteristics, before being combined with a field-programmable gate-array implementation of a spike-response model. This simple model was then analyzed, and shown to reproduce seven of eight behaviors recorded during an extensive study of the ventral medial hypothalamic (VMH) region of the brain. It is thought that many of the cell types found within the VMH are fed from a tonic noise synaptic input, where the patterns generated are a product of their spike response and not their interconnection. This paper shows how this tonic noise source can be modelled, and due to the independent nature of the noise sources, provides an avenue for the exploration of networks of noise-fueled neurons, which play a significant role in pattern generation within the brain.

[Bladder cancer screening with urine-based tumour markers - occupational medical experience]

OBJECTIVE

Bladder cancer responds favourably to treatment and has a good survival rate, provided it is diagnosed at an early stage. Established methods exist for the early detection, however, their specificity and positive predictive value are not yet satisfactory. Innovative markers have been proposed, but still require validation in prospective studies. We provide a literature-based short overview on the currently available and some proposed markers for the early detection of bladder cancer and evaluate the need for validation in further studies. We further provide some first results of such a recently finished study in an occupational setting.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective screening study over seven years in 1610 males with former occupational exposure to carcinogenic aromatic amines. Annual bladder cancer screening according to statutory requirements was offered. In addition to the regularly performed check for hematuria and urine cytology, the markers NMP22, UroVysion™ and survivin were performed in voided urine samples of the participants. Positive findings (not for survivin) were further followed through urethrocystoscopy.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

A total of 7219 urine samples were screened. During the study period 16 incidental and 4 recurrent bladder tumours, thereof three papillomas, occurred in a total of 19 participants. 14 out of twenty tumours were marker-positive, and all but two were early stage findings. Cell-based markers (cytology, UroVysion™) und molecular markers (NMP22, survivin) were largely complementary, thus acting as a "multi-marker panel". Eight of the tumours were identified by a positive cytology. Six tumours were not detected by any of the tumour markers. The results will be further evaluated through the inclusion of confounding factors, which have so far rarely been examined in other studies. This may lead to the development of tiered diagnostic strategies with the aim to reduce the number of invasive diagnostic procedures in the future.

Modelling the in vivo spike activity of phasically-firing vasopressin cells

A minimalist model of magnocellular vasopressin neurones was developed to examine the hypothesis that their phasic behaviour is the product of intrinsic voltage- and activity-dependent intracellular mechanisms that create a bistable dynamical system. The model can closely match a range of phasic behaviours recorded in vasopressin cells in vivo, as well as reproduce the three archetypal behaviours of vasopressin cells (continuous firing, sparse sporadic firing and phasic firing) by varying one of the fourteen model parameters. In addition, the mean and standard deviation of burst and silence periods can be matched by varying a further two parameters. In the model, the long-term behaviour (phasic characteristics) of cells is largely independent of the short-term behaviour (interspike intervals).

Direct and indirect effects of cannabinoids on in vitro GABA release in the rat arcuate nucleus

Within the hypothalamic arcuate nucleus, two neuronal subpopulations play particularly important roles in energy balance; neurones expressing neuropeptide Y (NPY), agouti-related peptide (AgRP) and GABA are orexigenic, whereas neurones expressing pro-opiomelanocortin and CART are anorexigenic. The pivotal role of these neuropeptides in energy homeostasis is well-known, although GABA may also be an important signal because targeted knockout of the GABA transporter in NPY/AgRP/GABA neurones results in a lean, obesity-resistant phenotype. In the present study, we describe an in vitro model of K(+)-evoked GABA release from the hypothalamus and determine the effects of cannabinoid receptor activation. K(+)-evoked GABA release was sensitive to leptin, insulin and PYY(3-36), indicating that GABA was released by arcuate NPY/AgRP/GABA neurones. In the presence of tetrodotoxin (TTX), the cannabinoid CB1 receptor agonist WIN 55,212-2 inhibited K(+)-evoked GABA release. This was prevented by the CB1 receptor inverse agonist rimonabant. Rimonabant had no effect when applied alone. In the absence of TTX, however, the opposite effects were observed: WIN 55,212-2 had no effect while rimonabant inhibited GABA release. This indicates that GABA release can involve an indirect, TTX-sensitive mechanism. The most parsimonious explanation for the inhibition of GABA release by a CB receptor inverse agonist is via the disinhibition of an cannabinoid-sensitive inhibitory input onto GABAergic neurones. One local source of an inhibitory neurotransmitter is the opioidergic arcuate neurones. In our in vitro model, K(+)-evoked GABA release was inhibited by the endogenous opioid peptide beta-endorphin in a naloxone-sensitive manner. The inhibitory effect of rimonabant was also prevented by naloxone and a kappa-opioid receptor selective antagonist, suggesting that GABA release from arcuate NPY/AgRP/GABA neurones can be inhibited by endogenous opioid peptides, and that the release of opioid peptides is sensitive to cannabinoids.

Effects of cholecystokinin in the supraoptic nucleus and paraventricular nucleus are negatively modulated by leptin in 24-h fasted lean male rats

Cholecystokinin (CCK) and leptin are two important satiety factors that are considered to act in synergy to reduce meal size. Peripheral injection of CCK activates neurones in several hypothalamic nuclei, including the supraoptic (SON) and paraventricular (PVN) nuclei and neurones in the brainstem of fed rats. We investigated whether peripheral leptin would modulate the effects of CCK on neuronal activity in the hypothalamus and brainstem of fasted rats by investigating Fos expression in the PVN, SON, arcuate nucleus, ventromedial hypothalamus (VMH), dorsomedial hypothalamus (DMH), area postrema (AP) and the nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS). Male rats, fasted for 24 h, received either one i.p. injection of vehicle, leptin or CCK-8 alone, or received one injection of vehicle or leptin before an i.p. injection of CCK-8. We found that CCK increased Fos expression in the PVN and SON as well as in the NTS and AP, but had no effect on Fos expression in the arcuate nucleus, VMH or DMH compared to vehicle. Leptin injected alone significantly increased Fos expression in the arcuate nucleus but had no effect on Fos expression in the VMH, DMH, SON, PVN, AP or NTS compared to vehicle. Fos expression was significantly increased in the AP in rats injected with both leptin and CCK compared to rats injected with vehicle and CCK. Unexpectedly, there was significantly less Fos expression in the PVN and SON of fasted rats injected with leptin and CCK than in rats injected with vehicle and CCK, suggesting that leptin attenuated CCK-induced Fos expression in the SON and PVN. However, Fos expression in the NTS was similar in fasted rats injected with vehicle and CCK or with leptin and CCK. Taken together, these results suggest that leptin dampens the effects of CCK on Fos expression in the SON and PVN, independently from NTS pathways, and this may reflect a direct action on magnocellular neurones.

Increased sensitivity of monoamine release in the supraoptic nucleus in late pregnancy: region- and stimulus-dependent responses

Oxytocin neurone activation at birth depends upon noradrenaline-mediated signals from the uterus via a brainstem pathway, as well as on factors within the supraoptic nucleus (SON), including oxytocin itself, and the system adapts during pregnancy to optimise the delivery process. We determined whether noradrenaline release in the SON in response to stimuli activating brainstem inputs or antidromically activating magnocellular neurones is enhanced at term pregnancy. Noradrenaline, serotonin and dopamine concentrations were measured in microdialysis samples collected from the dorsal and ventral SON before, during and after either i.v. cholecystokinin (CCK) or neural stalk stimulation in virgin and late pregnant rats. Each stimulus transiently increased noradrenaline and serotonin but not dopamine concentration in the dorsal SON, and responses were increased on days 21 and 22 of pregnancy compared to day 20 pregnant and virgin rats. Neural stalk stimulation induced sensitisation to subsequent stalk stimulation and so the responses in the dorsal SON were doubled; on day 22 of pregnancy, the area under the curve of monoamine concentration was 3.4-fold greater than in virgins, suggesting that adaptations perinatally enhance responsiveness. In conclusion, there are enhanced responses of noradrenaline and serotonin release in the SON that can generate very high, transient extracellular concentrations at term. This may be a consequence of neuroendocrine adaptations in late pregnancy and probably contributes to optimal oxytocin neurone activation during parturition.

Somatostatin actions on rat supraoptic nucleus oxytocin and vasopressin neurones

Magnocellular neurones in the supraoptic nucleus (SON) receive major afferent inputs from the brainstem that have been implicated in the regulation of oxytocin and vasopressin secretion from the posterior pituitary. Notably, at parturition, some neurones that project from the nucleus tractus solitarii (NTS) in the brainstem directly to the SON are activated. Many of these are noradrenergic and regulate oxytocin secretion during parturition, whereas others contain somatostatin and their role is unclear. In the present study, we report that, at parturition, somatostatin mRNA expression in the NTS is significantly increased compared to pregnancy, suggesting an active role for these neurones at that time. Intracerebroventricular somatostatin infusion significantly increased plasma oxytocin secretion in both virgin female and pregnant rats. Intracerebroventricular somatostatin increased SON oxytocin and vasopressin neurone firing-rates, and increased Fos expression in the SON and paraventricular nucleus and in the subfornical organ. Retrodialysis of somatostatin onto the ventrally exposed SON also increased vasopressin neurone firing rate but, unexpectedly, decreased oxytocin neurone firing rate. The experiments indicate that somatostatin neurones in the NTS are activated during parturition but, because the direct effects of somatostatin on oxytocin neurones are inhibitory, this direct pathway does not appear to contribute to enhanced oxytocin release at this time, although indirect somatostatin effects may do so.

The adaptive brain: Glenn Hatton and the supraoptic nucleus

In December 2009, Glenn Hatton died, and neuroendocrinology lost a pioneer who had done much to forge our present understanding of the hypothalamus and whose productivity had not faded with the passing years. Glenn, an expert in both functional morphology and electrophysiology, was driven by a will to understand the significance of his observations in the context of the living, behaving organism. He also had the wit to generate bold and challenging hypotheses, the wherewithal to expose them to critical and elegant experimental testing, and a way with words that gave his papers and lectures clarity and eloquence. The hypothalamo-neurohypophysial system offered a host of opportunities for understanding how physiological functions are fulfilled by the electrical activity of neurones, how neuronal behaviour changes with changing physiological states, and how morphological changes contribute to the physiological response. In the vision that Glenn developed over 35 years, the neuroendocrine brain is as dynamic in structure as it is adaptable in function. Its adaptability is reflected not only by mere synaptic plasticity, but also by changes in neuronal morphology and in the morphology of the glial cells. Astrocytes, in Glenn's view, were intimate partners of the neurones, partners with an essential role in adaptation to changing physiological demands.

Mathematical modelling in neuroendocrinology

In neuroendocrinology, mathematical modelling is about formalising our understanding of the behaviour of the complex biological systems with which we deal. Formulating our explanations mathematically ensures their logical consistency, and makes them open to structured analysis; it is a stringent test of their intellectual coherence. In addition, however, modellers are seeking to extend our understanding in new ways, by seeking novel, simple explanations for complex behaviour. Here we discuss some styles of modelling as they have been applied to neuroendocrine systems, and discuss some of their strengths and limitations.

Bistability with hysteresis in the activity of vasopressin cells

Magnocellular vasopressin neurones generate distinctive 'phasic' patterns of electrical activity during which periods of spiking activity (bursts) alternate with periods of no spikes or occasional spikes. The mechanisms of burst termination in vivo are still not clearly understood. We recorded from single phasic vasopressin cells in vivo and here we show that burst terminations in some phasic cells is preceded by transient increases in activity, consistent with bursts ending as a result of activity-dependent inhibition. We show that extrinsically imposed increases in activity, evoked by brief stimulation of the organum vasculosum of the lamina terminalis, can either trigger bursts if given when a cell is silent, or stop bursts if given when a cell is active. Thus, the magnocellular vasopressin system is a population of independent bistable oscillators. The population as a whole is insensitive to transient changes in input level, whether these are excitatory or inhibitory. The vasopressin cell population thus acts like a 'low-pass filter'; although brief large changes in input rate have little overall effect, the population responds very effectively to small, sustained changes in input rate by evolving a pattern of discharge activity that efficiently maintains secretion. We note that these filtering characteristics are the opposite of the filtering characteristics that are typically associated with neurones.

Effects of alpha-melanocyte-stimulating hormone on magnocellular oxytocin neurones and their activation at intromission in male rats

The peptides alpha-melanocyte-stimulating hormone (alpha-MSH) and oxytocin have very similar effects on several behaviours, including male sexual behaviour. Both induce penile erection and enhance copulatory behaviour when given centrally, suggesting that their central actions are not independent. Here, we used intromission as a physiological stimulus to investigate whether some central effects of alpha-MSH during male sexual behaviour are mediated by oxytocin neurones. We used the expression of the immediate-early gene product Fos to investigate oxytocin neurone activation at intromission and after intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) administration of alpha-MSH (1 microg/5 microl) and studied the effects of i.c.v. administration of a MC4 receptor antagonist on Fos expression and on the latency of male rats to exhibit sexual behaviour in the presence of a receptive female. In rats that showed intromission, Fos was expressed in magnocellular oxytocin neurones in both the paraventricular nucleus (PVN) and the supraoptic nucleus (SON), but there was no significant activation of parvocellular oxytocin neurones of the PVN. Similarly, alpha-MSH increased Fos expression in magnocellular oxytocin neurones but had little or no effect in parvocellular oxytocin neurones. In male rats that achieved intromission, central injection of a MC4 receptor antagonist significantly attenuated the increase in Fos expression in magnocellular oxytocin neurones in both the PVN and the SON and increased mount and intromission latencies compared to vehicle-injected controls. Together, the results indicate that magnocellular oxytocin neurones are involved in the central regulation of male sexual behaviour, and that some of the central effects of alpha-MSH are likely to be mediated by magnocellular oxytocin neurones.

Jacques Benoit Lecture. Information processing in the hypothalamus: peptides and analogue computation

Peptides in the hypothalamus are not like conventional neurotransmitters; their release is not particularly associated with synapses, and their long half-lives mean that they can diffuse to distant targets. Peptides can act on their cells of origin to facilitate the development of patterned electrical activity, they can act on their neighbours to bind the collective activity of a neural population into a coherent signalling entity, and the co-ordinated population output can transmit waves of peptide secretion that act as a patterned hormonal analogue signal within the brain. At their distant targets, peptides can re-programme neural networks, by effects on gene expression, synaptogenesis, and by functionally rewiring connections by priming activity-dependent release.