Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries

Ninety years of change, from commercial extinction to recovery, range expansion and decline for Antarctic fur seals at South Georgia

With environmental change, understanding how species recover from overharvesting and maintain viable populations is central to ecosystem restoration. Here, we reconstruct 90 years of recovery trajectory of the Antarctic fur seal at South Georgia (S.W. Atlantic), a key indicator species in the krill-based food webs of the Southern Ocean. After being harvested to commercial extinction by 1907, this population rebounded and now constitutes the most abundant otariid in the World. However, its status remains uncertain due to insufficient and conflicting data, and anthropogenic pressures affecting Antarctic krill, an essential staple for millions of fur seals and other predators. Using integrated population models, we estimated simultaneously the long-term abundance for Bird Island, northwest South Georgia, epicentre of recovery of the species after sealing, and population adjustments for survey counts with spatiotemporal applicability. Applied to the latest comprehensive survey data, we estimated the population at South Georgia in 2007-2009 as 3,510,283 fur seals [95% CI: 3,140,548-3,919,604] (ca. 98% of global population), after 40 years of maximum growth and range expansion owing to an abundant krill supply. At Bird Island, after 50 years of exponential growth followed by 25 years of slow stable growth, the population collapsed in 2009 and has thereafter declined by -7.2% [-5.2, -9.1] per annum, to levels of the 1970s. For the instrumental record, this trajectory correlates with a time-varying relationship between coupled climate and sea surface temperature cycles associated with low regional krill availability, although the effects of increasing krill extraction by commercial fishing and natural competitors remain uncertain. Since 2015, fur seal longevity and recruitment have dropped, sexual maturation has retarded, and population growth is expected to remain mostly negative and highly variable. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of a key Southern Ocean predator over a century of profound environmental and ecosystem change.

"Spotting" Mycobacterium bovis infection in leopards (Panthera pardus) - novel application of diagnostic tools

Background

Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) is the causative agent of animal tuberculosis (TB) which poses a threat to many of South Africa's most iconic wildlife species, including leopards (Panthera pardus). Due to limited tests for wildlife, the development of accurate ante-mortem tests for TB diagnosis in African big cat populations is urgently required. The aim of this study was to evaluate currently available immunological assays for their ability to detect M. bovis infection in leopards.

Methods

Leopard whole blood (n=19) was stimulated using the QuantiFERON Gold Plus In-Tube System (QFT) to evaluate cytokine gene expression and protein production, along with serological assays. The GeneXpert® MTB/RIF Ultra (GXU®) qPCR assay, mycobacterial culture, and speciation by genomic regions of difference PCR, was used to confirm M. bovis infection in leopards.

Results

Mycobacterium bovis infection was confirmed in six leopards and individuals that were tuberculin skin test (TST) negative were used for comparison. The GXU® assay was positive using all available tissue homogenates (n=5) from M. bovis culture positive animals. Mycobacterium bovis culture-confirmed leopards had greater antigen-specific responses, in the QFT interferon gamma release assay, CXCL9 and CXCL10 gene expression assays, compared to TST-negative individuals. One M. bovis culture-confirmed leopard had detectable antibodies using the DPP® Vet TB assay.

Conclusion

Preliminary results demonstrated that immunoassays and TST may be potential tools to identify M. bovis-infected leopards. The GXU® assay provided rapid direct detection of infected leopards. Further studies should aim to improve TB diagnosis in wild felids, which will facilitate disease surveillance and screening.

Otterly delicious: Spatiotemporal variation in the diet of a recovering population of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) revealed through DNA metabarcoding and morphological analysis of prey remains

Eurasian otters are apex predators of freshwater ecosystems and a recovering species across much of their European range; investigating the dietary variation of this predator over time and space, therefore, provides opportunities to identify changes in freshwater trophic interactions and factors influencing the conservation of otter populations. Here we sampled feces from 300 dead otters across England and Wales between 2007 and 2016, conducting both morphological analyses of prey remains and dietary DNA metabarcoding. Comparison of these methods showed that greater taxonomic resolution and breadth could be achieved using DNA metabarcoding but combining data from both methodologies gave the most comprehensive dietary description. All otter demographics exploited a broad range of taxa and variation likely reflected changes in prey distributions and availability across the landscape. This study provides novel insights into the trophic generalism and adaptability of otters across Britain, which is likely to have aided their recent population recovery, and may increase their resilience to future environmental changes.

Surprising leopard restoration in fragmented ecosystems reveals connections as the secret to conservation success

The Chinese Loess Plateau has been the cradle of Chinese civilization and the main human settlement in China for thousands of years, where anthropogenic activities are believed to have deeply eroded natural landscapes. After decades of minimal leopard sighting in forests of northern China, due to serious human interference, we recently discovered that the leopard population is recovering. This finding provides hope for successful biodiversity conservation in human-dominated ecosystems. To understand the mechanism of leopard return into such a highly fragmented landscape, we applied the concept of ecological networks (ENs) to identify key factors promoting leopard restoration and quantify the ecological links among habitats. We first determined the existence of a healthy leopard population in the study area based on the size of its home range and presence of breeding individuals. We then innovatively used the relationship between species richness and top predators to generate ENs, and found that the connectivity of ENs had a significant positive interaction with leopard survival. Our study validates the effectiveness of establishing ecologically connected habitats for leopard protection, and highlights the importance of applying ENs for conservation planning in highly fragmented ecosystems. This study provides a successful case for the protection of top predators in human-dominated landscapes.

LiDAR Reveals the Process of Vision-Mediated Predator–Prey Relationships

Exploring the processes of interspecific relationships is crucial to understanding the mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance. Visually detecting interspecies relationships of large mammals is limited by the reconstruction accuracy of the environmental structure and the timely detection of animal behavior. Hence, we used backpack laser scanning (BLS) to reconstruct the high-resolution three-dimensional environmental structure to simulate the process of a predator approaching its prey, indicating that predator tigers would reduce their visibility by changing their behavior. Wild boars will nibble off about 5m of branches around the nest in order to create better visibility around the nest, adopting an anti-predation strategy to detect possible predators in advance. Our study not only points out how predator–prey relationships are affected by visibility as the environment mediates it, but also provides an operable framework for exploring interspecific relationships from a more complex dimension. Finally, this study provides a new perspective for exploring the mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance.

Effects of predator novelty on intraguild predation communities with adaptive prey defense

Understanding coexistence within community modules such as intraguild predation (IGP), where an omnivore both preys on and competes with an intermediate consumer for a shared resource, has provided insight into the mechanisms that promote the persistence of complex food webs. Adaptive, predator-specific defense has been shown theoretically to enhance coexistence of IGP communities when employed by shared prey. Yet to date, all such theory has assumed that prey have an accurate perception of predation risk and appropriate antipredator responses, assumptions that may not be justified when considering a novel predator. We therefore consider the effects of an introduced predator on IGP coexistence, describing two invasion scenarios: suboptimal defense, whereby a similar invader elicits an ineffective antipredator response; and naïveté toward an unfamiliar invader, for which prey fail to accurately estimate predation risk. We examine predictions for native predator persistence across gradients of enrichment and defense costs. The model predicts that predator novelty can weaken the effect of adaptive defense, causing exclusion of native predators that would persist in the absence of novelty and inducing unstable dynamics in previously stable regions of parameter space. Coexistence is predicted to be more sensitive to the effects of suboptimal defense than to naïveté, and differentially leads to the exclusion of native predators in highly productive environments and when defense costs are low. Moderate novelty of the omnivore can increase resource density via a trophic cascade, while consumer novelty can either lead to omnivore exclusion or facilitate three-species coexistence by providing a subsidy to the otherwise excluded native omnivore. Our analyses suggest that models of adaptive defense are sensitive to assumptions regarding predator–prey eco-evolutionary experience and that predator novelty has significant implications for food web dynamics.

Conservation implications of forage base requirements of a marine predator population at carrying capacity

Prey depletion may contribute to marine predator declines, yet the forage base required to sustain an unfished population of predatory fish at carrying capacity is unknown. We integrated demographic and physiological data within a Bayesian bioenergetic model to estimate annual consumption of a gray reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) population at a remote Pacific atoll (Palmyra Atoll) that are at carrying capacity. Furthermore, we estimated the proportion of the atoll's reef fish biomass production consumed by the gray reef sharks, assuming sharks either partially foraged pelagically (mean 7%), or solely within the reef environment (mean 52%). We then predicted the gray reef shark population potential of other, less remote Pacific Ocean coral reef islands, illustrating that current populations are substantially smaller than could be supported by their forage base. Our research highlights the utility of modeling how far predator population sizes are from their expected carrying capacity in informing marine conservation.

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Diet impacts the consumptive influence of gray reef sharks on reef fish resources

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Some gray reef shark populations could be larger, considering their forage base

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Modeling potential predator population sizes can inform their conservation

When is a commercial fish species recovered?

The need to reverse decades of species and ecosystem decline has created an imperative to understand the governance of recovery. To pursue this imperative, we ask a question at the centre of recovery governance: when is a commercial species recovered? To answer this question we conduct a case study of northern cod (Gadus morhua, NAFO subdivision 2J3KL), a species perhaps best known for the scale of its biological collapse and subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Northern cod has experienced recent biomass growth, raising the question of when the species can once again be the target of commercial fishing. We conducted 26 interviews with key stakeholders from Newfoundland and Labrador's fishing sector and identify three core discourses characterizing the governance of the northern cod recovery: (1) the biological recovery discourse, (2) the industrial recovery discourse, and (3) the community recovery discourse. We find these recovery discourses are composed of five dimensions: (i) epistemic orientation and inputs, (ii) emphasis on institutions and rules, (iii) framings of risk, (iv) stakeholder priorities, goals, and interests, and (v) different lessons learned from the collapse. Our findings suggest that the recovery of a commercial species is not determined only by biological metrics, but also how decision-makers view the value of different knowledge systems, what frames of risk they find most salient, and the lessons they glean from collapse on behalf of the societies they represent. Our discussion notes that co-productive approaches could supplement adaptive approaches as a potential strategy to reconcile competing discourses.

Life-history traits and habitat availability shape genomic diversity in birds: implications for conservation

More than 25% of species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are threatened with extinction. Understanding how environmental and biological processes have shaped genomic diversity may inform management practices. Using 68 extant avian species, we parsed the effects of habitat availability and life-history traits on genomic diversity over time to provide a baseline for conservation efforts. We used published whole-genome sequence data to estimate overall genomic diversity as indicated by historical long-term effective population sizes (Ne) and current genomic variability (H), then used environmental niche modelling to estimate Pleistocene habitat dynamics for each species. We found that Ne and H were positively correlated with habitat availability and related to key life-history traits (body mass and diet), suggesting the latter contribute to the overall genomic variation. We found that H decreased with increasing species extinction risk, suggesting that H may serve as a leading indicator of demographic trends related to formal IUCN conservation status in birds. Our analyses illustrate that genome-wide summary statistics estimated from sequence data reflect meaningful ecological attributes relevant to species conservation.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

On the sensitivity of food webs to multiple stressors

Evaluating the effects of multiple stressors on ecosystems is becoming increasingly vital with global changes. The role of species interactions in propagating the effects of stressors, although widely acknowledged, has yet to be formally explored. Here, we conceptualise how stressors propagate through food webs and explore how they affect simulated three-species motifs and food webs of the Canadian St. Lawrence System. We find that overlooking species interactions invariably underestimate the effects of stressors, and that synergistic and antagonistic effects through food webs are prevalent. We also find that interaction type influences a species' susceptibility to stressors; species in omnivory and tri-trophic food chain interactions in particular are sensitive and prone to synergistic and antagonistic effects. Finally, we find that apex predators were negatively affected and mesopredators benefited from the effects of stressors due to their trophic position in the St. Lawrence System, but that species sensitivity is dependent on food web structure. In conceptualising the effects of multiple stressors on food webs, we bring theory closer to practice and show that considering the intricacies of ecological communities is key to assess the net effects of stressors on species.

Seasonal resource pulses and the foraging depth of a Southern Ocean top predator

Seasonal resource pulses can have enormous impacts on species interactions. In marine ecosystems, air-breathing predators often drive their prey to deeper waters. However, it is unclear how ephemeral resource pulses such as near-surface phytoplankton blooms alter the vertical trade-off between predation avoidance and resource availability in consumers, and how these changes cascade to the diving behaviour of top predators. We integrated data on Weddell seal diving behaviour, diet stable isotopes, feeding success and mass gain to examine shifts in vertical foraging throughout ice break-out and the resulting phytoplankton bloom each year. We also tested hypotheses about the likely location of phytoplankton bloom origination (advected or produced in situ where seals foraged) based on sea ice break-out phenology and advection rates from several locations within 150 km of the seal colony. In early summer, seals foraged at deeper depths resulting in lower feeding rates and mass gain. As sea ice extent decreased throughout the summer, seals foraged at shallower depths and benefited from more efficient energy intake. Changes in diving depth were not due to seasonal shifts in seal diets or horizontal space use and instead may reflect a change in the vertical distribution of prey. Correspondence between the timing of seal shallowing and the resource pulse was variable from year to year and could not be readily explained by our existing understanding of the ocean and ice dynamics. Phytoplankton advection occurred faster than ice break-out, and seal dive shallowing occurred substantially earlier than local break-out. While there remains much to be learned about the marine ecosystem, it appears that an increase in prey abundance and accessibility via shallower distributions during the resource pulse could synchronize life-history phenology across trophic levels in this high-latitude ecosystem.

High genetic diversity and low differentiation reflect the ecological versatility of the African leopard

Large carnivores are generally sensitive to ecosystem changes because their specialized diet and position at the top of the trophic pyramid is associated with small population sizes. Accordingly, low genetic diversity at the whole-genome level has been reported for all big cat species, including the widely distributed leopard. However, all previous whole-genome analyses of leopards are based on the Far Eastern Amur leopards that live at the extremity of the species' distribution and therefore are not necessarily representative of the whole species. We sequenced 53 whole genomes of African leopards. Strikingly, we found that the genomic diversity in the African leopard is 2- to 5-fold higher than in other big cats, including the Amur leopard, likely because of an exceptionally high effective population size maintained by the African leopard throughout the Pleistocene. Furthermore, we detected ongoing gene flow and very low population differentiation within African leopards compared with those of other big cats. We corroborated this by showing a complete absence of an otherwise ubiquitous equatorial forest barrier to gene flow. This sets the leopard apart from most other widely distributed large African mammals, including lions. These results revise our understanding of trophic sensitivity and highlight the remarkable resilience of the African leopard, likely because of its extraordinary habitat versatility and broad dietary niche.

Effects of Human Disturbance on Terrestrial Apex Predators

The effects of human disturbance spread over virtually all ecosystems and ecological communities on Earth. In this review, we focus on the effects of human disturbance on terrestrial apex predators. We summarize their ecological role in nature and how they respond to different sources of human disturbance. Apex predators control their prey and smaller predators numerically and via behavioral changes to avoid predation risk, which in turn can affect lower trophic levels. Crucially, reducing population numbers and triggering behavioral responses are also the effects that human disturbance causes to apex predators, which may in turn influence their ecological role. Some populations continue to be at the brink of extinction, but others are partially recovering former ranges, via natural recolonization and through reintroductions. Carnivore recovery is both good news for conservation and a challenge for management, particularly when recovery occurs in human-dominated landscapes. Therefore, we conclude by discussing several management considerations that, adapted to local contexts, may favor the recovery of apex predator populations and their ecological functions in nature.

COVID-19 lockdown reveals tourists as seabird guardians

The widespread lockdowns put in place to limit the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) offers a rare opportunity in understanding how human presence influence ecosystems. Using data from long-term seabird monitoring, we reveal a previously concealed guarding effect by tourist groups on an iconic seabird colony in the Baltic Sea. The absence of tourists in 2020 lead to a sevenfold increase in presence of white-tailed eagles Haliaeetus albicilla, a sevenfold increase in their disturbance of breeding common murres Uria aalge and causing 26% lower murre productivity than the long-term average. Eagles did not prey on murres, but their frequent disturbances delayed egg laying and facilitated egg predation from herring gulls Larus argentatus and hooded crows Corvus cornix. Based on our findings, we suggest that human presence could be used as a strategic measure in guarding seabird colonies, and that a social-ecological systems perspective is vital for long-term success in protected area management.

Reintroducing species when threats still exist: assessing the suitability of contemporary landscapes for island endemics

Reintroducing species into landscapes with persistent threats is a conservation challenge. Although historic threats may not be eliminated, they should be understood in the context of contemporary landscapes. Regenerating landscapes often contain newly emergent habitat, creating opportunities for reintroductions. The Endangered St Croix ground lizard Pholidoscelis polops was extirpated from the main island of St Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, as a result of habitat conversion to agriculture and predation by the small Indian mongoose Herpestes auropunctatus. The species survived on two small cays and was later translocated to two islands. Since the 1950s, new land-cover types have emerged on St Croix, creating a matrix of suitable habitat throughout the island. Here we examined whether the new habitat is sufficient for a successful reintroduction of the St Croix ground lizard, utilizing three complementary approaches. Firstly, we compared a map from 1750 to the current landscape of St Croix and found statistical similarity of land-cover types. Secondly, we determined habitat suitability based on a binomial mixture population model developed as part of the programme monitoring the largest extant population of the St Croix ground lizard. We estimated the habitat to be sufficient for > 142,000 lizards to inhabit St Croix. Thirdly, we prioritized potential reintroduction sites and planned for reintroductions to take place during 2020–2023. Our case study demonstrates how changing landscapes alter the spatial configuration of threats to species, which can create opportunities for reintroduction. Presuming that areas of degraded habitat may never again be habitable could fail to consider how regenerating landscapes can support species recovery. When contemporary landscapes are taken into account, opportunities for reintroducing threatened species can emerge.

Shifting trophic control of fishery-ecosystem dynamics following biological invasions

Increasing human population size and mobility have accelerated the translocation of nonnative species globally, which has become a major threat to conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Introduced species can disrupt species interactions of the recipient ecosystem, triggering system-wide events, and amplify or dampen effects of existing pressures. We show how two pervasive intercontinental invasive consumers in North American lakes, dreissenids (filter-feeding mussels) and Bythotrephes (carnivorous zooplankton), nonlinearly modify consumer-resource dynamics and undermine management interventions to rebuild cold-water predatory fish biomass. Synthesizing 30 yr (1986-2015) of lake-wide monitoring data with a dynamic mass-balance food-web model (consisting of 61 species and trophic groups), we reconstructed historical food-web dynamics of Lake Simcoe, a large, temperate lake in Ontario, Canada that has shifted from a turbid to clear-water state. We then analyzed patterns of biomass fluctuations of three recreationally harvested, ecologically connected populations; lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush, a piscivore), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, a benthivore), and cisco (C. artedi, a planktivore) before and after the invasions by testing hypotheses on their delayed recoveries under management interventions-predator manipulations (fishery removal and stocking) and nutrient (phosphorus) load reduction. Analyses suggest that fishery harvest primarily regulated early recovery trajectories of the piscivore and planktivore, weakening top-down control prior to the establishment of the invasive consumers. By contrast, the benthivore biomass patterns were shaped, in part, by the invasive mussels (via diet shift), independently of management actions. Although improved water quality (with reduced hypoxia in deeper water) and, in turn, higher macrophyte production are projected to expand the predation refuge for young fish, intensified planktivory (by Bythotrephes) and herbivory (by dreissenids) have triggered shifts in community composition (from pelagic to demersal dominance). These system-wide shifts, in turn, have substantially diminished ecosystem productivity, thereby shrinking fishery yields. Novel consumers can rewire food webs, disrupt energy flows, and suppress predator recoveries, underscoring the need to account for altered ecological reality when sustainably managing fishery resources in invaded ecosystems.

Artificial habitats host elevated densities of large reef-associated predators

Large predators play important ecological roles, yet many are disproportionately imperiled. In marine systems, artificial reefs are often deployed to restore degraded reefs or supplement existing reefs, but it remains unknown whether these interventions benefit large predators. Comparative field surveys of thirty artificial and natural reefs across ~200 km of the North Carolina, USA coast revealed large reef-associated predators were more dense on artificial than natural reefs. This pattern was associated with higher densities of transient predators (e.g. jacks, mackerel, barracuda, sharks) on artificial reefs, but not of resident predators (e.g., grouper, snapper). Further analyses revealed that this pattern of higher transient predator densities on artificial reefs related to reef morphology, as artificial reefs composed of ships hosted higher transient predator densities than concrete reefs. The strength of the positive association between artificial reefs and transient predators increased with a fundamental habitat trait–vertical extent. Taller artificial reefs had higher densities of transient predators, even when accounting for habitat area. A global literature review of high trophic level fishes on artificial and natural habitats suggests that the overall pattern of more predators on artificial habitats is generalizable. Together, these findings provide evidence that artificial habitats, especially those like sunken ships that provide high vertical structure, may support large predators.

Anatomical variations and pathological changes in the hearts of free-ranging Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Finland

The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) despite the wide distribution has fragmented populations with possibly decreased genetic variability. Reports from Central Europe have raised cardiac health as possible risk factor for lynx populations. The knowledge on normal anatomic variations of lynx heart is crucial to assess emerging pathological or hereditary disorders. The aim of this study was to give a detailed description of the cardiac anatomy and circulation of the Eurasian lynx and to report the cardiac health of the lynx in Finland. The cardiac anatomy and pathology were studied post mortem from 63 legally hunted lynx. In general, the cardiac anatomy of Eurasian lynx corresponded with that described for other felids. In the ventricles, varying number of thin ventricular bands was a common feature and their histological appearance was characterized by a fibromuscular pattern. The size of the heart varied between males and females, but the relative size was similar to that described for most domesticated carnivores. No marked pathologic lesions were observed in the lynx hearts. Fibrosis was observed in 56% of the hearts, but it was focal and mild in degree and unlikely to affect cardiac function or to have clinical significance. In conclusion, the cardiac health of the Finnish Eurasian lynx population is good with no signs of heritable cardiac disorders. Furthermore, we were able to give a detailed anatomic description of the lynx heart, which can serve as a reference for further epidemiological investigations on cardiac diseases in lynx populations.

Far-ranging generalist top predators enhance the stability of meta-foodwebs

Identifying stabilizing factors in foodwebs is a long standing challenge with wide implications for community ecology and conservation. Here, we investigate the stability of spatially resolved meta-foodwebs with far-ranging super-predators for whom the whole meta-foodwebs appears to be a single habitat. By using a combination of generalized modeling with a master stability function approach, we are able to efficiently explore the asymptotic stability of large classes of realistic many-patch meta-foodwebs. We show that meta-foodwebs with far-ranging top predators are more stable than those with localized top predators. Moreover, adding far-ranging generalist top predators to a system can have a net stabilizing effect. These results highlight the importance of top predator conservation.

Non-trophic impacts from white sharks complicate population recovery for sea otters

Complex interactions between protected populations may challenge the recovery of whole ecosystems. In California, white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) mistargeting southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) are an emergent impact to sea otter recovery, inhibiting the broader ecosystem restoration sea otters might provide. Here, we integrate and analyze tracking and stranding data to compare the phenology of interactions between white sharks and their targeted prey (elephant seals, Mirounga angustirostris) with those of mistargeted prey (sea otters, humans). Pronounced seasonal peaks in shark bites to otters and humans overlap in the late boreal summer, immediately before the annual adult white shark migration to elephant seal rookeries. From 1997 to 2017, the seasonal period when sharks bite otters expanded from 2 to 8 months of the year and occurred primarily in regions where kelp cover declined. Immature and male otters, demographics most associated with range expansion, were disproportionately impacted. While sea otters are understood to play a keystone role in kelp forests, recent ecosystem shifts are revealing unprecedented bottom-up and top-down interactions. Such shifts challenge ecosystem management programs that rely on static models of species interactions.

Predator-prey role reversal may impair the recovery of declining pike populations

Many fish populations have experienced declines in recent decades due to anthropogenic disturbances, such as overfishing and habitat exploitation. Despite management actions, many populations show a limited capacity to recover. This may be attributed to reversal of predator-prey roles, yet empirical evidence to that effect remains scarce. Here, we combine field and laboratory studies to investigate the interaction between pike (Esox lucius), a large keystone top predatory fish, and the small-bodied mesopredatory threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea where pike populations have declined. Our data suggest that stickleback predation on pike larvae depletes a large proportion of the recruitment and influences the size distribution through size-selective predation, which is corroborated by a gape-limitation experiment and diet analysis of wild-captured sticklebacks. The effects of stickleback predation are present across several populations and years, and our data suggest that early arrival of sticklebacks has stronger effects on juvenile pike survival. Finally, we use data on pike gape-limitation and the size distribution of sticklebacks to illustrate the process of role reversal. These findings suggest that mesopredator behaviour can reduce recruitment of a top predator species and impair the capacity of populations to recover. This emphasizes predator-prey role reversal as an important ecological and evolutionary driver that influences the outcome of restoration and management actions.

Top-down effects of repatriating bald eagles hinder jointly recovering competitors

The recovery of piscivorous birds around the world is touted as one of the great conservation successes of the 21st century, but for some species, this success was short-lived. Bald eagles, ospreys and great blue herons began repatriating Voyageurs National Park, USA, in the mid-20th century. However, after 1990, only eagles continued their recovery, while osprey and heron recovery failed for unknown reasons. We aimed to evaluate whether top-down effects of bald eagles and bottom-up effects of inclement weather, habitat quality and fish resources contributed to the failed recovery of ospreys and herons in a protected area. We quantified the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up factors on nest colonization, persistence (i.e., nest reuse) and success for ospreys, and occurrence and size of heronries using 26 years (1986-2012) of spatially explicit monitoring data coupled with multi-response hierarchical models and Bayesian variable selection approaches. Bald eagles were previously shown to recover faster due to intensive nest protection and management. Increased numbers of eagles were associated with a reduction in the numbers of osprey nests, their nesting success and heronry size, while higher local densities of nesting eagles deterred heronries nearby. We found little evidence of bottom-up limitations on the failed recovery of herons and ospreys. We present a conservation conundrum: bald eagles are top predators and a flagship species of conservation that have benefited from intensive protection, but this likely hindered the recovery of ospreys and herons. Returning top predators, or rewilding, is widely promoted as a conservation strategy for top-down ecosystem recovery, but managing top predators in isolation of jointly recovering species can halt or reverse ecosystem recovery. Previous studies warn of the potential consequences of ignoring biotic interactions amongst recovering species, but we go further by quantifying how these interactions contributed to failed recoveries via impacts on the nesting demography of jointly recovering species. Multi-species management is paramount to realizing the ecosystem benefits of top predator recovery.

From the predictable to the unexpected: kelp forest and benthic invertebrate community dynamics following decades of sea otter expansion

The recovery of predators has the potential to restore ecosystems and fundamentally alter the services they provide. One iconic example of this is keystone predation by sea otters in the Northeast Pacific. Here, we combine spatial time series of sea otter abundance, canopy kelp area, and benthic invertebrate abundance from Washington State, USA, to examine the shifting consequences of sea otter reintroduction for kelp and kelp forest communities. We leverage the spatial variation in sea otter recovery to understand connections between sea otters and the kelp forest community. Sea otter increases created a pronounced decline in sea otter prey-particularly kelp-grazing sea urchins-and led to an expansion of canopy kelps from the late 1980s until roughly 2000. However, while sea otter and kelp population growth rates were positively correlated prior to 2002, this association disappeared over the last two decades. This disconnect occurred despite surveys showing that sea otter prey have continued to decline. Kelp area trends are decoupled from both sea otter and benthic invertebrate abundance at current densities. Variability in kelp abundance has declined in the most recent 15 years, as it has the synchrony in kelp abundance among sites. Together, these findings suggest that initial nearshore community responses to sea otter population expansion follow predictably from trophic cascade theory, but now, other factors may be as or more important in influencing community dynamics. Thus, the utility of sea otter predation in ecosystem restoration must be considered within the context of complex and shifting environmental conditions.

Rewilding the world's large carnivores

Earth's terrestrial large carnivores form a highly endangered group of species with unique conservation challenges. The majority of these species have experienced major geographical range contractions, which puts many of them at high risk of extinction or of becoming ecologically ineffective. As a result of these range contractions and the associated loss of intact predator guilds, the ecological effects of these species are now far less widespread and common, with inevitable consequences for ecosystem function. Rewilding-which includes reintroducing species into portions of their former ranges-is an important carnivore conservation tool and means for restoring top-down ecological regulation. We conducted a global analysis of potential reintroduction areas. We first considered protected areas where one or more large carnivore species have been extirpated, identifying a total of 130 protected areas that may be most suitable for carnivore reintroduction. These protected areas include sites in every major world region, and are most commonly found in Mongolia (n = 13), Canada (n = 11), Thailand (n = 9), Namibia (n = 6), Indonesia (n = 6) and Australia (n = 6). We considered the sizes of protected areas, their levels of protection, the extent of human impacts within and around the protected areas, and the status of prey species in the protected areas. Finally, we used the 'last of the wild' approach to identify contiguous low human footprint regions within the former ranges of each species, identifying an additional 150 areas which could be the focus of conservation efforts to create conditions conducive to reintroductions. These low footprint regions were most commonly found in the USA (n = 14), Russia (n = 14), Canada (n = 10), China (n = 9) and Mauritania (n = 8). Together, our results show the global-scale potential for carnivore rewilding projects to both conserve these species and provide critical ecological and social benefits.

Impact of rewilding, species introductions and climate change on the structure and function of the Yukon boreal forest ecosystem

Community and ecosystem changes are happening in the pristine boreal forest ecosystem of the Yukon for 2 reasons. First, climate change is affecting the abiotic environment (temperature, rainfall and growing season) and driving changes in plant productivity and predator–prey interactions. Second, simultaneously change is occurring because of mammal species reintroductions and rewilding. The key ecological question is the impact these faunal changes will have on trophic dynamics. Primary productivity in the boreal forest is increasing because of climatic warming, but plant species composition is unlikely to change significantly during the next 50–100 years. The 9–10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares will persist but could be reduced in amplitude if winter weather increases predator hunting efficiency. Small rodents have increased in abundance because of increased vegetation growth. Arctic ground squirrels have disappeared from the forest because of increased predator hunting efficiency associated with shrub growth. Reintroductions have occurred for 2 reasons: human reintroductions of large ungulates and natural recolonization of mammals and birds extending their geographic ranges. The deliberate rewilding of wood bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus canadensis) has changed the trophic structure of this boreal ecosystem very little. The natural range expansion of mountain lions (Puma concolor), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and American marten (Martes americana) should have few ecosystem effects. Understanding potential changes will require long‐term monitoring studies and experiments on a scale we rarely deem possible. Ecosystems affected by climate change, species reintroductions and human alteration of habitats cannot remain stable and changes will be critically dependent on food web interactions.

Competing tradeoffs between increasing marine mammal predation and fisheries harvest of Chinook salmon

Many marine mammal predators, particularly pinnipeds, have increased in abundance in recent decades, generating new challenges for balancing human uses with recovery goals via ecosystem-based management. We used a spatio-temporal bioenergetics model of the Northeast Pacific Ocean to quantify how predation by three species of pinnipeds and killer whales (Orcinus orca) on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) has changed since the 1970s along the west coast of North America, and compare these estimates to salmon fisheries. We find that from 1975 to 2015, biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds and killer whales increased from 6,100 to 15,200 metric tons (from 5 to 31.5 million individual salmon). Though there is variation across the regions in our model, overall, killer whales consume the largest biomass of Chinook salmon, but harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) consume the largest number of individuals. The decrease in adult Chinook salmon harvest from 1975-2015 was 16,400 to 9,600 metric tons. Thus, Chinook salmon removals (harvest + consumption) increased in the past 40 years despite catch reductions by fisheries, due to consumption by recovering pinnipeds and endangered killer whales. Long-term management strategies for Chinook salmon will need to consider potential conflicts between rebounding predators or endangered predators and prey.

Temporal Variation in Trophic Cascades

The trophic cascade has emerged as a key paradigm in ecology. Although ecologists have made progress in understanding spatial variation in the strength of trophic cascades, temporal variation remains relatively unexplored. Our review suggests that strong trophic cascades are often transient, appearing when ecological conditions support high consumer abundance and rapidly growing, highly edible prey. Persistent top-down control is expected to decay over time in the absence of external drivers, as strong top-down control favors the emergence of better-defended resources. Temporal shifts in cascade strength—including those driven by contemporary global change—can either stabilize or destabilize ecological communities. We suggest that a more temporally explicit approach can improve our ability to explain the drivers of trophic cascades and predict the impact of changing cascade strength on community dynamics.

Diet Composition and Trophic Ecology of Northeast Pacific Ocean Sharks

Although there is a general perception of sharks as large pelagic, apex predators, most sharks are smaller, meso- and upper-trophic level predators that are associated with the seafloor. Among 73 shark species documented in the eastern North Pacific (ENP), less than half reach maximum lengths >200cm, and 78% occur in demersal or benthic regions of the continental shelf or slope. Most small (≤200cm) species (e.g., houndsharks) and demersal, nearshore juveniles of larger species (e.g., requiem sharks) consume small teleosts and decapod crustaceans, whereas large species in pelagic coastal and oceanic environments feed on large teleosts and squids. Several large, pelagic apex predator species occur in the ENP, but the largest species (i.e., Basking Shark, Whale Shark) consume zooplankton or small nekton. Size-based dietary variability is substantial for many species, and segregation of juvenile and adult foraging habitats also is common (e.g., Horn Shark, Shortfin Mako). Temporal dietary differences are most pronounced for temperate, nearshore species with wide size ranges, and least pronounced for smaller species in extreme latitudes and deep-water regions. Sympatric sharks often occupy various trophic positions, with resource overlap differing by space and time and some sharks serving as prey to other species. Most coastal species remain in the same general region over time and feed opportunistically on variable prey inputs (e.g., season migrations, spawning, or recruitment events), whereas pelagic, oceanic species actively seek hot spots of prey abundance that are spatiotemporally variable. The influence of sharks on ecosystem structure and regulation has been downplayed compared to that of large teleosts species with higher per capita consumption rates (e.g., tunas, billfishes). However, sharks also exert indirect influences on prey populations by causing behavioural changes that may result in restricted ranges and reduced fitness. Except for food web modelling efforts in Alaskan waters, the trophic impacts of sharks are poorly incorporated into current ecosystem approaches to fisheries management in the NEP.

Participatory adaptive management leads to environmental learning outcomes extending beyond the sphere of science

Resolving uncertainties in managed social-ecological systems requires adaptive experimentation at whole-ecosystem levels. However, whether participatory adaptive management fosters ecological understanding among stakeholders beyond the sphere of science is unknown. We experimentally involved members of German angling clubs (n = 181 in workshops, n = 2483 in total) engaged in self-governance of freshwater fisheries resources in a large-scale ecological experiment of active adaptive management of fish stocking, which constitutes a controversial management practice for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning when conducted inappropriately. The collaborative ecological experiments spanned several years and manipulated fish densities in 24 lakes with two species. In parallel, we experimentally compared changes in ecological knowledge and antecedents of proenvironmental behavior in stakeholders and managers who were members of a participatory adaptive management treatment group, with those receiving only a standard lecture, relative to placebo controls. Using a within-subjects pretest-posttest control design, changes in ecological knowledge, environmental beliefs, attitudes, norms, and behavioral intentions were evaluated. Participants in adaptive management retained more knowledge of ecological topics after a period of 8 months compared to those receiving a standard lecture, both relative to controls. Involvement in adaptive management was also the only treatment that altered personal norms and beliefs related to stocking. Critically, only the stakeholders who participated in adaptive management reduced their behavioral intentions to engage in fish stocking in the future. Adaptive management is essential for robust ecological knowledge, and we show that involving stakeholders in adaptive management experiments is a powerful tool to enhance ecological literacy and build environmental capacity to move toward sustainability.

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being. Here, we develop theory to consider the ecological and social implications of synchronous versus sequential (species-by-species) recovery in the context of exploited food webs. A dynamical systems model demonstrates that synchronous recovery of predators and prey is almost always more efficient than sequential recovery. Compared with sequential recovery, synchronous recovery can be twice as fast and produce transient fluctuations of much lower amplitude. A predator-first strategy is particularly slow because it counterproductively suppresses prey recovery. An analysis of real-world predator-prey recoveries shows that synchronous and sequential recoveries are similarly common, suggesting that current practices are not ideal. We highlight policy tools that can facilitate swift and steady recovery of ecosystem structure, function and associated services.