Record-high CO2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021

Responses of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality to future climate, land use, and emission changes: Insights from modeling across shared socioeconomic pathways

Air pollution induced by fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses a significant challenge for global air quality management. Understanding how factors such as climate change, land use and land cover change (LULCC), and changing emissions interact to impact PM2.5 remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the Community Earth System Model and examined both the individual and combined effects of these factors on global surface PM2.5 in 2010 and projected scenarios for 2050 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results reveal biomass-burning and anthropogenic emissions as the primary drivers of surface PM2.5 across all SSPs. Less polluted regions like the US and Europe are expected to experience substantial PM2.5 reduction in all future scenarios, reaching up to ~5 μg m-3 (70 %) in SSP1. However, heavily polluted regions like India and China may experience varied outcomes, with a potential decrease in SSP1 and increase under SSP3. Eastern China witness ~20 % rise in PM2.5 under SSP3, while northern India may experience ~70 % increase under same scenario. Depending on the region, climate change alone is expected to change PM2.5 up to ±5 μg m-3, while the influence of LULCC appears even weaker. The modest changes in PM2.5 attributable to LULCC and climate change are associated with aerosol chemistry and meteorological effects, including biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, SO2 oxidation, and NH4NO3 formation. Despite their comparatively minor role, LULCC and climate change can still significantly shape future air quality in specific regions, potentially counteracting the benefits of emission control initiatives. This study underscores the pivotal role of changes in anthropogenic emissions in shaping future PM2.5 across all SSP scenarios. Thus, addressing all contributing factors, with a primary focus on reducing anthropogenic emissions, is crucial for achieving sustainable reduction in surface PM2.5 levels and meeting sustainable pollution mitigation goals.

Accelerated rise in wildfire carbon emissions from Arctic continuous permafrost

Wildfires over permafrost put perennially frozen carbon at risk. However, wildfire emissions from biomass burning over the diverse range of permafrost regions and their share in global wildfire emissions have not been revealed. The results showed a dramatic increase in wildfire carbon emissions from permafrost regions over the period 1997-2021. The share of permafrost in global wildfire CO2 emissions increased from 2.42% in 1997 to 20.86% in 2021. Accelerating wildfire emissions from continuous permafrost region is the single largest contributor to increased emissions in northern permafrost regions. Fire-induced emissions from 2019 to 2021 alone accounted for approximately 40% of the 25-year total CO2 emissions from continuous permafrost regions. The rise in wildfire emissions from continuous permafrost regions is explained by desiccation within a 5-10 cm soil depth, where wildfires combust belowground fuel. These findings highlight the acceleration of fire-induced carbon emissions from continuous permafrost regions, which disturb the organic carbon stock and accelerate the positive feedback between permafrost degradation and climate warming, thus stimulating permafrost towards a climatic tipping point.

High temperature sensitivity of Arctic isoprene emissions explained by sedges

It has been widely reported that isoprene emissions from the Arctic ecosystem have a strong temperature response. Here we identify sedges (Carex spp. and Eriophorum spp.) as key contributors to this high sensitivity using plant chamber experiments. We observe that sedges exhibit a markedly stronger temperature response compared to that of other isoprene emitters and predictions by the widely accepted isoprene emission model, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). MEGAN is able to reproduce eddy-covariance flux observations at three high-latitude sites by integrating our findings. Furthermore, the omission of the strong temperature responses of Arctic isoprene emitters causes a 20% underestimation of isoprene emissions for the high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere during 2000-2009 in the Community Land Model with the MEGAN scheme. We also find that the existing model had underestimated the long-term trend of isoprene emissions from 1960 to 2009 by 55% for the high-latitude regions.

Fire effects on soil CH4 and N2O fluxes across terrestrial ecosystems

Fire, as a natural disturbance, significantly shapes and influences the functions and services of terrestrial ecosystems via biotic and abiotic processes. Comprehending the influence of fire on soil greenhouse gas dynamics is crucial for understanding the feedback mechanisms between fire disturbances and climate change. Despite work on CO2 fluxes, there is a large uncertainty as to whether and how soil CH4 and N2O fluxes change in response to fire disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems. To narrow this knowledge gap, we performed a meta-analysis synthesizing 3615 paired observations from 116 global studies. Our findings revealed that fire increased global soil CH4 uptake in uplands by 23.2 %, soil CH4 emissions from peatlands by 74.7 %, and soil N2O emissions in terrestrial ecosystems (including upland and peatland) by 18.8 %. Fire increased soil CH4 uptake in boreal, temperate, and subtropical forests by 20.1 %, 38.8 %, and 30.2 %, respectively, and soil CH4 emissions in tropical forests by 193.3 %. Additionally, fire negatively affected soil total carbon (TC; -10.3 %), soil organic carbon (SOC; -15.6 %), microbial biomass carbon (MBC; -44.8 %), dissolved organic carbon (DOC; -27 %), microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN; -24.7 %), soil water content (SWC; -9.2 %), and water table depth (WTD; -68.2 %). Conversely, the fire increased soil bulk density (BD; +10.8 %), ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N; +46 %), nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N; +54 %), pH (+4.4 %), and soil temperature (+15.4 %). Our meta-regression analysis showed that the positive effects of fire on soil CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly positively correlated with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), indicating that climate warming will amplify the positive effects of fire disturbance on soil CH4 and N2O emissions. Taken together, since higher future temperatures are likely to prolong the fire season and increase the potential of fires, this could lead to positive feedback between warming, fire events, CH4 and N2O emissions, and future climate change.

Active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option under the EU Nature Restoration Law

The EU Nature Restoration Law (NRL) is critical for the restoration of degraded ecosystems and active afforestation of degraded peatlands has been suggested as a restoration measure under the NRL. Here, we discuss the current state of scientific evidence on the climate mitigation effects of peatlands under forestry. Afforestation of drained peatlands without restoring their hydrology does not fully restore ecosystem functions. Evidence on long-term climate benefits is lacking and it is unclear whether CO2 sequestration of forest on drained peatland can offset the carbon loss from the peat over the long-term. While afforestation may offer short-term gains in certain cases, it compromises the sustainability of peatland carbon storage. Thus, active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option for climate mitigation under the EU Nature Restoration Law and might even impede future rewetting/restoration efforts. Instead, restoring hydrological conditions through rewetting is crucial for effective peatland restoration.

Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires

In recent decades boreal wildfires have occurred frequently over eastern Siberia, leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants. However, it is unclear what factors have contributed to recent increases in these wildfires. Here, using the data we show that background eastern Siberian Arctic warming (BAW) related to summer Russian Arctic sea-ice decline accounts for ~79% of the increase in summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that controls wildfires over eastern Siberia over 2004-2021 with the remaining ~21% related to internal atmospheric variability associated with changes in Siberian blocking events. We further demonstrate that Siberian blocking events are occurring at higher latitudes, are more persistent and have larger zonal scales and slower decay due to smaller meridional potential vorticity gradients caused by stronger BAW under lower sea-ice. These changes lead to more persistent, widespread and intense high-latitude warming and VPD, thus contributing to recent increases in eastern Siberian high-latitude wildfires.

The reduced net carbon uptake over Northern Hemisphere land causes the close-to-normal CO2 growth rate in 2021 La Niña

La Niña climate anomalies have historically been associated with substantial reductions in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. However, the 2021 La Niña exhibited a unique near-neutral impact on the CO2 growth rate. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms by using an ensemble of net CO2 fluxes constrained by CO2 observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 in conjunction with estimates of gross primary production and fire carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that the close-to-normal atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2021 was the result of the compensation between increased net carbon uptake over the tropics and reduced net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Specifically, we identify that the extreme drought and warm anomalies in Europe and Asia reduced the net carbon uptake and offset 72% of the increased net carbon uptake over the tropics in 2021. This study contributes to our broader understanding of how regional processes can shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration under climate change.

Trends and drivers of Arctic-boreal fire intensity between 2003 and 2022

Climate change has disproportional effects on Arctic-boreal ecosystems, as the increase of air temperatures in these northern regions is several times higher than the global average. Ongoing warming and drying have resulted in recent record-breaking fire years in Arctic-boreal ecosystems, resulting in substantial carbon emissions that might accelerate climate change. While recent trends in Arctic-boreal burned area have been well documented, it is still unclear how fire intensity has changed. Fire intensity relates to the energy release from combustion and to a large extent drives the impact of a fire on the vegetation and soils, the emission of various gasses and the combustion completeness of different fuels. Here, we used the active fire product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to examine trends in fire radiative power (FRP) over the entire Arctic-boreal region. We found a significant increase in annual median fire intensity between 2003 and 2022 in Eurasian boreal forests, for both daytime (increase of 0.392 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.56, p < 0.001) and nighttime fires (increase of 0.175 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), while no general trend in FRP was observed in boreal North America. This increase in FRP in Eurasian boreal forests was strongly associated with simultaneous increases in air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fire weather and fuel availability. We estimated that for Eurasia with each degree increase in air temperature, annual median daytime FRP increases with 1.58 MW/km2 in the tundra and 0.94 MW/km2 in the taiga. Climate change has thus resulted in a widespread and clear increase in fire intensity in central and eastern Eurasia while we could not discern clear trends in Arctic-boreal North America. Arctic-boreal fire intensity may further increase with climate change, with potentially major consequences for fire regimes, carbon emissions and society.

Long-Chain Hydrocarbons from Nonthermal Plasma-Driven Biogas Upcycling

The burgeoning necessity to discover new methodologies for the synthesis of long-chain hydrocarbons and oxygenates, independent of traditional reliance on high-temperature, high-pressure, and fossil fuel-based carbon, is increasingly urgent. In this context, we introduce a nonthermal plasma-based strategy for the initiation and propagation of long-chain carbon growth from biogas constituents (CO2 and CH4). Utilizing a plasma reactor operating at atmospheric room temperature, our approach facilitates hydrocarbon chain growth up to C40 in the solid state (including oxygenated products), predominantly when CH4 exceeds CO2 in the feedstock. This synthesis is driven by the hydrogenation of CO2 and/or amalgamation of CHx radicals. Global plasma chemistry modeling underscores the pivotal role of electron temperature and CHx radical genesis, contingent upon varying CO2/CH4 ratios in the plasma system. Concomitant with long-chain hydrocarbon production, the system also yields gaseous products, primarily syngas (H2 and CO), as well as liquid-phase alcohols and acids. Our finding demonstrates the feasibility of atmospheric room-temperature synthesis of long-chain hydrocarbons, with the potential for tuning the chain length based on the feed gas composition.

Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in nature. Yet, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China Fire History Atlas (CFHA), which is based on 19 947 documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century (1901-1994). We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire-temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire-temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire-temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire-climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

Amundsen Sea Ice Loss Contributes to Australian Wildfires

Wildfires in Australia have attracted extensive attention in recent years, especially for the devastating 2019-2020 fire season. Remote forcing, such as those from tropical oceans, plays an important role in driving the abnormal weather conditions associated with wildfires. However, whether high latitude climate change can impact Australian fires is largely unclear. In this study, we reveal a robust relationship between Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC), primarily over the Amundsen Sea region, with Australian springtime fire activity, by using reanalysis data sets, AMIP simulation results, and a state-of-the-art climate model simulation. Specifically, a diminished Amundsen SIC leads to the formation of a high-pressure system above Australia as a result of the eastward propagation of Rossby waves. Meanwhile, two strengthened meridional cells originating from the tropic and polar regions also enhance subsiding airflow in Australia, resulting in prolonged arid and high-temperature conditions. This mechanism explains about 28% of the variability of Australian fire weather and contributed more than 40% to the 2019 extreme burning event, especially in the eastern hotspots. These findings contribute to our understanding of polar-low latitude climate teleconnection and have important implications for projecting Australian fires as well as the global environment.

Synoptic weather patterns during fire spread events in Siberia

Several recent studies have indicated a strong relationship between extensive wildfires in Siberia and synoptic-scale weather processes. In this study, we used the concept of fire spread events to investigate the relationships between synoptic and surface-level weather conditions and extensive wildfires in Siberia during 2001-2022 using the MODIS and ERA5 reanalysis products. We analyzed the spatio-temporal features and seasonality of fire spread events in the region and found that most of them occurred in the central part of Eastern Siberia (ES) during the summer months, following the wildfire season in the region. A significant positive trend in the annual count of fire spread events was found in ES, coinciding with non-significant negative trends in cloud cover and precipitation and non-significant positive trends in air temperature and the fire weather index. Results show that in the ES region, which accounts for 46 % of the total number of considered events, the main driver of fire spread events is the formation of a positive geopotential height anomaly, which, based on the pattern of the meridional wind component, indicates the presence of an anticyclone above the area of fire spread events. The presence of a high-pressure zone causes a decrease in cloud cover over regions with fires, leading to increases in the amount of incoming solar radiation and surface air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. These conditions contribute to the drying of fuel and an increase in the overall fire hazard level, which in turn leads to an intensification of the combustion process, as evidenced by an increase in the radiative power of fires.

A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Designing and Engineering Atomically Dispersed Metal Catalysts for CO2 to CO Conversion: From Single to Dual Metal Sites

The electrochemical CO2 reduction reaction (CO2 RR) is a promising approach to achieving sustainable electrical-to-chemical energy conversion and storage while decarbonizing the emission-heavy industry. The carbon-supported, nitrogen-coordinated, and atomically dispersed metal sites are effective catalysts for CO generation due to their high activity, selectivity, and earth abundance. Here, we discuss progress, challenges, and opportunities for designing and engineering atomic metal catalysts from single to dual metal sites. Engineering single metal sites using a nitrogen-doped carbon model was highlighted to exclusively study the effect of carbon particle sizes, metal contents, and M-N bond structures in the form of MN4 moieties on catalytic activity and selectivity. The structure-property correlation was analyzed by combining experimental results with theoretical calculations to uncover the CO2 to CO conversion mechanisms. Furthermore, dual-metal site catalysts, inheriting the merits of single-metal sites, have emerged as a new frontier due to their potentially enhanced catalytic properties. Designing optimal dual metal site catalysts could offer additional sites to alter the surface adsorption to CO2 and various intermediates, thus breaking the scaling relationship limitation and activity-stability trade-off. The CO2 RR electrolysis in flow reactors was discussed to provide insights into the electrolyzer design with improved CO2 utilization, reaction kinetics, and mass transport.

Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape-level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat-derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post-fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space-for-time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid-succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8-40% during June and July for 2- to 59-year stands relative to pre-fire controls. From the analysis of post-fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long-term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early- and mid-summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long-term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Peatland restoration pathways to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and retain peat carbon

Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon (C) cycle, making their restoration a key strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and retaining C. This study analyses the most common restoration pathways employed in boreal and temperate peatlands, potentially applicable in tropical peat swamp forests. Our analysis focuses on the GHG emissions and C retention potential of the restoration measures. To assess the C stock change in restored (rewetted) peatlands and afforested peatlands with continuous drainage, we adopt a conceptual approach that considers short-term C capture (GHG exchange between the atmosphere and the peatland ecosystem) and long-term C sequestration in peat. The primary criterion of our conceptual model is the capacity of restoration measures to capture C and reduce GHG emissions. Our findings indicate that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most influential part of long-term climate impact of restored peatlands, whereas moderate methane (CH4) emissions and low N2O fluxes are relatively unimportant. However, lateral losses of dissolved and particulate C in water can account up to a half of the total C stock change. Among the restored peatland types, Sphagnum paludiculture showed the highest CO2 capture, followed by shallow lakes and reed/grass paludiculture. Shallow lakeshore vegetation in restored peatlands can reduce CO2 emissions and sequester C but still emit CH4, particularly during the first 20 years after restoration. Our conceptual modelling approach reveals that over a 300-year period, under stable climate conditions, drained bog forests can lose up to 50% of initial C content. In managed (regularly harvested) and continuously drained peatland forests, C accumulation in biomass and litter input does not compensate C losses from peat. In contrast, rewetted unmanaged peatland forests are turning into a persistent C sink. The modelling results emphasized the importance of long-term C balance analysis which considers soil C accumulation, moving beyond the short-term C cycling between vegetation and the atmosphere.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10533-023-01103-1.