Quantifying and monitoring overdiagnosis in cancer screening: a systematic review of methods

Ecological study estimating melanoma overdiagnosis in the USA using the lifetime risk method

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the proportion of melanoma diagnoses (invasive and in situ) in the USA that might be overdiagnosed.

DESIGN

In this ecological study, incidence and mortality data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 registries database. DevCan software was used to calculate the cumulative lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma between 1975 and 2018, with adjustments made for changes in longevity and risk factors over the study period.

SETTING

USA.

PARTICIPANTS

White American men and women (1975-2018).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted for year 2018 competing mortality and changes in risk factors), which was inferred as likely overdiagnosis. The secondary outcome was an excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis in each year between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted and unadjusted).

RESULTS

Between 1975 and 2018 the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma (invasive and in situ) increased from 3.2% (1 in 31) to 6.4% (1 in 16) among white men, and from 1.6% (1 in 63) to 4.5% (1 in 22) among white women. Over the same period, the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma in situ increased from 0.17% (1 in 588) to 2.7% (1 in 37) in white men and 0.08% (1 in 1250) to 2.0% (1 in 50) in white women. An estimated 49.7% of melanomas diagnosed in white men and 64.6% in white women were overdiagnosed in 2018. Among people diagnosed with melanomas in situ, 89.4% of white men and 85.4% of white women were likely overdiagnosed in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Melanoma overdiagnosis among white Americans is significant and increasing over time with an estimated 44 000 overdiagnosed in men and 39 000 in women in 2018. A large proportion of overdiagnosed melanomas are in situ cancers, pointing to a potential focus for intervention.

Trends of the prevalence rate of central lymph node metastasis and multifocality in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma after delayed thyroid surgery

Background

Active surveillance has been an option for patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, whether delayed surgery leads to an increased risk of local tumor metastasis remain unclear. We sought to investigate the impact of observation time on central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and multifocal disease in patients with low-risk PTC.

Methods

Patients who were diagnosed with asymptomatic low-risk PTC, and with a pathological maximum tumor size ≤1.5 cm by were included. The patients were classified into observation group and immediate surgery group, and subgroup analyses were conducted by observation time period. The prevalence of CLNM, lymph node (LN) involved >5, multifocal PTC and bilateral multifocal PTC were considered as outcome variables. The changing trend and risk ratio of prevalence over observation time were evaluated by Mann-Kendall trend test and Logistics regression.

Results

Overall, 3,427 and 1,860 patients were classified to the observation group and immediate surgery group, respectively. Trend tests showed that decreasing trends both on the prevalence of CLNM and LN involved >5 over the observation time, but the difference was not statistically significant, and the prevalence of multifocal PTC and bilateral multifocal PTC showed the significant decreasing trends. After adjustment, multivariate analysis showed no statistically significant difference between observed and immediate surgery groups in the four outcome variables.

Conclusion

In patients with subclinical asymptomatic low-risk PTC, observation did not result in an increased incidence of local metastatic disease, nor did the increased surgery extent in patients with delayed surgery compared to immediate surgery. These findings can strengthen the confidence in the active surveillance management for both doctors and patients.

Health benefits and harms of mammography screening in older women (75+ years)-a systematic review

BACKGROUND

There is little evidence on the balance between potential benefits and harms of mammography screening in women 75 years and older. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesise the evidence on the outcomes of mammography screening in women aged 75 years and older.

METHODS

A systematic review of mammography screening studies in women aged 75 years and over.

RESULTS

Thirty-six studies were included in this review: 27 observational studies and 9 modelling studies. Many of the included studies used no or uninformative comparison groups resulting in a potential bias towards the benefits of screening. Despite this, there was mixed evidence about the benefits and harms of continuing mammography screening beyond the age of 75 years. Some studies showed a beneficial effect on breast cancer mortality, and other studies showed no effect on mortality. Some studies showed some harms (false positive tests and recalls) being comparable to those in younger age-groups, with other studies showing increase in false positive screens and biopsies in older age-group. Although reported in fewer studies, there was consistent evidence of increased overdiagnosis in older age-groups.

CONCLUSION

There is limited evidence available to make a recommendation for/against continuing breast screening beyond the age of 75 years. Future studies should use more informative comparisons and should estimate overdiagnosis given potentially substantial harm in this age-group due to competing causes of death. This review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020203131).

Evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions was assessed: a metaepidemiological study using the 'Fair Umpire' framework

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the strength of the evidence for, and the extent of, overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We systematically searched for studies investigating overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions. Using the 'Fair Umpire' framework to assess the evidence that cases diagnosed by one diagnostic strategy but not by another may be overdiagnosed, two reviewers independently identified whether a Fair Umpire-a disease-specific clinical outcome, a test result or risk factor that can determine whether an additional case does or does not have disease-was present. Disease-specific clinical outcomes provide the strongest evidence for overdiagnosis, follow-up or concurrent tests provide weaker evidence, and risk factors provide only weak evidence. Studies without a Fair Umpire provide the weakest evidence of overdiagnosis.

RESULTS

Of 132 studies, 47 (36%) did not include a Fair Umpire to adjudicate additional diagnoses. When present, the most common Umpire was a single test or risk factor (32% of studies), with disease-specific clinical outcome Umpires used in only 21% of studies. Estimates of overdiagnosis included 43-45% of screen-detected acute abdominal aneurysms, 54% of cases of acute kidney injury, and 77% of cases of oligohydramnios in pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Much of the current evidence for overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions is weak. Application of the framework can guide development of robust studies to detect and estimate overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions, ultimately informing evidence-based policies to reduce it.

Data-driven overdiagnosis definitions: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Adequate methods to promptly translate digital health innovations for improved patient care are essential. Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have been sources of digital innovation and hold the promise to revolutionize the way we treat, manage and diagnose patients. Understanding the benefits but also the potential adverse effects of digital health innovations, particularly when these are made available or applied on healthier segments of the population is essential. One of such adverse effects is overdiagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

to comprehensively analyze quantification strategies and data-driven definitions for overdiagnosis reported in the literature.

METHODS

we conducted a scoping systematic review of manuscripts describing quantitative methods to estimate the proportion of overdiagnosed patients.

RESULTS

we identified 46 studies that met our inclusion criteria. They covered a variety of clinical conditions, primarily breast and prostate cancer. Methods to quantify overdiagnosis included both prospective and retrospective methods including randomized clinical trials, and simulations.

CONCLUSION

a variety of methods to quantify overdiagnosis have been published, producing widely diverging results. A standard method to quantify overdiagnosis is needed to allow its mitigation during the rapidly increasing development of new digital diagnostic tools.

A taxonomy of early diagnosis research to guide study design and funding prioritisation

Researchers and research funders aiming to improve diagnosis seek to identify if, when, where, and how earlier diagnosis is possible. This has led to the propagation of research studies using a wide range of methodologies and data sources to explore diagnostic processes. Many such studies use electronic health record data and focus on cancer diagnosis. Based on this literature, we propose a taxonomy to guide the design and support the synthesis of early diagnosis research, focusing on five key questions: Do healthcare use patterns suggest earlier diagnosis could be possible? How does the diagnostic process begin? How do patients progress from presentation to diagnosis? How long does the diagnostic process take? Could anything have been done differently to reach the correct diagnosis sooner? We define families of diagnostic research study designs addressing each of these questions and appraise their unique or complementary contributions and limitations. We identify three further questions on relationships between the families and their relevance for examining patient group inequalities, supported with examples from the cancer literature. Although exemplified through cancer as a disease model, we recognise the framework is also applicable to non-neoplastic disease. The proposed framework can guide future study design and research funding prioritisation.

The natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in simulation models: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Assumptions on the natural history of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are necessary to accurately model it and estimate overdiagnosis. To improve current estimates of overdiagnosis (0-91%), the purpose of this review was to identify and analyse assumptions made in modelling studies on the natural history of DCIS in women.

METHODS

A systematic review of English full-text articles using PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science was conducted up to February 6, 2023. Eligibility and all assessments were done independently by two reviewers. Risk of bias and quality assessments were performed. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. Reader agreement was quantified with Cohen's kappa. Data extraction was performed with three forms on study characteristics, model assessment, and tumour progression.

RESULTS

Thirty models were distinguished. The most important assumptions regarding the natural history of DCIS were addition of non-progressive DCIS of 20-100%, classification of DCIS into three grades, where high grade DCIS had an increased chance of progression to invasive breast cancer (IBC), and regression possibilities of 1-4%, depending on age and grade. Other identified risk factors of progression of DCIS to IBC were younger age, birth cohort, larger tumour size, and individual risk.

CONCLUSION

To accurately model the natural history of DCIS, aspects to consider are DCIS grades, non-progressive DCIS (9-80%), regression from DCIS to no cancer (below 10%), and use of well-established risk factors for progression probabilities (age). Improved knowledge on key factors to consider when studying DCIS can improve estimates of overdiagnosis and optimization of screening.

Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening on All-Cause and CRC-Specific Mortality Reduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Background: The aim of this study was to pool and compare all-cause and colorectal cancer (CRC) specific mortality reduction of CRC screening in randomized control trials (RCTs) and simulation models, and to determine factors that influence screening effectiveness. (2) Methods: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane library were searched for eligible studies. Multi-use simulation models or RCTs that compared the mortality of CRC screening with no screening in general population were included. CRC-specific and all-cause mortality rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by a bivariate random model. (3) Results: 10 RCTs and 47 model studies were retrieved. The pooled CRC-specific mortality rate ratios in RCTs were 0.88 (0.80, 0.96) and 0.76 (0.68, 0.84) for guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) and single flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening, respectively. For the model studies, the rate ratios were 0.45 (0.39, 0.51) for biennial fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) for biennial gFOBT, 0.61 (0.53, 0.72) for single FS, 0.27 (0.21, 0.35) for 10-yearly colonoscopy, and 0.35 (0.29, 0.42) for 5-yearly FS. The CRC-specific mortality reduction of gFOBT increased with higher adherence in both studies (RCT: 0.78 (0.68, 0.89) vs. 0.92 (0.87, 0.98), model: 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) vs. 0.92 (0.51, 1.63)). Model studies showed a 0.62-1.1% all-cause mortality reduction with single FS screening. (4) Conclusions: Based on RCTs and model studies, biennial FIT/gFOBT, single and 5-yearly FS, and 10-yearly colonoscopy screening significantly reduces CRC-specific mortality. The model estimates are much higher than in RCTs, because the simulated biennial gFOBT assumes higher adherence. The effectiveness of screening increases at younger screening initiation ages and higher adherences.

Quantification of overdiagnosis in randomised trials of cancer screening: an overview and re-analysis of systematic reviews

The degree of overdiagnosis in common cancer screening trials is uncertain due to inadequate design of trials, varying definition and methods used to estimate overdiagnosis. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the risk of overdiagnosis for the most widely implemented cancer screening programmes and assess the implications of design limitations and biases in cancer screening trials on the estimates of overdiagnosis by conducting an overview and re-analysis of systematic reviews of cancer screening. We searched PubMed and the Cochrane Library from their inception dates to November 29, 2021. Eligible studies included systematic reviews of randomised trials comparing cancer screening interventions to no screening, which reported cancer incidence for both trial arms. We extracted data on study characteristics, cancer incidence and assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool. We included 19 trials described in 30 articles for review, reporting results for the following types of screening: mammography for breast cancer, chest X-ray or low-dose CT for lung cancer, alpha-foetoprotein and ultrasound for liver cancer, digital rectal examination, prostate-specific antigen, and transrectal ultrasound for prostate cancer, and CA-125 test and/or ultrasound for ovarian cancer. No trials on screening for melanoma were eligible. Only one trial (5%) had low risk in all bias domains, leading to a post-hoc meta-analysis, excluding trials with high risk of bias in critical domains, finding the extent of overdiagnosis ranged from 17% to 38% across cancer screening programmes. We conclude that there is a significant risk of overdiagnosis in the included randomised trials on cancer screening. We found that trials were generally not designed to estimate overdiagnosis and many trials had high risk of biases that may draw the estimates of overdiagnosis towards the null. In effect, the true extent of overdiagnosis due to cancer screening is likely underestimated.

Androgens, aging, and prostate health

Due to late onset hypogonadism (LOH), there is an increased usage of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) in the aging male population. Since prostate is a target organ for androgens and anti-androgenic strategies are used to treat and palliate benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) and prostate cancer (PC), the prevalence of both increases with age, the possible influence of TRT on prostate health becomes highly relevant. The present review summarizes existing data on the associations between endogenous hormone concentrations and prostate growth and concludes that circulating concentrations of androgens do not appear to be associated with the risks of development of BPH or initiation or progression of PC. The explanation for these findings relates to an apparent insensitivity of prostatic tissue to changes of testosterone concentrations within the physiological range.

The influence of postscreening follow-up time and participant characteristics on estimates of overdiagnosis from lung cancer screening trials

We aimed to explore the underlying reasons that estimates of overdiagnosis vary across and within low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) lung cancer screening trials. We conducted a systematic review to identify estimates of overdiagnosis from randomised controlled trials of LDCT screening. We then analysed the association of Ps (the excess incidence of lung cancer as a proportion of screen-detected cases) with postscreening follow-up time using a linear random effects meta-regression model. Separately, we analysed annual Ps estimates from the US National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and German Lung Cancer Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI) using exponential decay models with asymptotes. We conducted stratified analyses to investigate participant characteristics associated with Ps using the extended follow-up data from NLST. Among 12 overdiagnosis estimates from 8 trials, the postscreening follow-up ranged from 3.8 to 9.3 years, and Ps ranged from -27.0% (ITALUNG, 8.3 years follow-up) to 67.2% (DLCST, 5.0 years follow-up). Across trials, 39.1% of the variation in Ps was explained by postscreening follow-up time. The annual changes in Ps were -3.5% and -3.9% in the NLST and LUSI trials, respectively. Ps was predicted to plateau at 2.2% for NLST and 9.2% for LUSI with hypothetical infinite follow-up. In NLST, Ps increased with age from -14.9% (55-59 years) to 21.7% (70-74 years), and time trends in Ps varied by histological type. The findings suggest that differences in postscreening follow-up time partially explain variation in overdiagnosis estimates across lung cancer screening trials. Estimates of overdiagnosis should be interpreted in the context of postscreening follow-up and population characteristics.

Occurrence of patient safety incidents during cancer screening: A cross-sectional investigation of the general public

This study aimed to explore the various types and frequency of patient safety incidents (PSIs) during a cancer screening health examination for the general public of Ulsan Metropolitan City, South Korea. Furthermore, the associated elements and responses to PSIs during a cancer screening were examined. The survey, conducted in the five districts of Ulsan, was completed by residents aged 19 years and older who agreed to participate. Descriptive analysis, Chi-square or Fisher exact test, and multivariable logistic regression were performed to analyze the data. A total of 620 participants completed the survey, with 11 (1.8%) individuals who experienced PSIs themselves and 11 (1.8%) by their family members. The highest type of PSIs was those related to procedures. The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed no significant variables associated with experiencing PSIs during cancer screening. However, there was a significant association between the judgment of medical error occurrence and level of patient harm both in experience by family members and total experience of PSIs (P < .05). There was also a significant difference between with and without an experience of PSIs disclosure (P < .001). This study comprehensively analyzed the types and extent of PSIs experienced by Korean individuals and their family members in Ulsan. These findings suggest that patient safety issues during cancer screening should not be overlooked. Furthermore, an investigation system to regularly monitor PSIs in cancer screening should be developed and established.

An Epidemiologic Analysis of Melanoma Overdiagnosis in the United States, 1975-2017

The primary cause of the increase in melanoma incidence in the United States has been suggested to be overdiagnosis. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program data from 1975 to 2017 to examine epidemiologic trends of melanoma incidence and mortality and better characterize overdiagnosis in white Americans. Over the 43-year period, incidence and mortality showed discordant temporal changes across population subgroups; trends most suggestive of overdiagnosis alone were present in females aged 55-74. Other groups showed mixed changes suggestive of overdiagnosis plus changes in underlying disease risk (decreasing risk in younger individuals and increasing risk in older males). Cohort effects were identified for male and female mortality and male incidence but were not as apparent for female incidence, suggesting that period effects have had a greater influence on changes in incidence over time in females. Encouraging trends included long-term declines in mortality in younger individuals and recent stabilization of invasive incidence in individuals aged 15-44 years and males aged 45-54 years. Melanoma in situ incidence, however, has continued to increase throughout the population. Overdiagnosis appears to be relatively greater in American females and for melanoma in situ.

Effects of awareness of breast cancer overdiagnosis among women with screen-detected or incidentally found breast cancer: a qualitative interview study

OBJECTIVES

To explore experiences of women who identified themselves as having a possible breast cancer overdiagnosis.

DESIGN

Qualitative interview study using key components of a grounded theory analysis.

SETTING

International interviews with women diagnosed with breast cancer and aware of the concept of overdiagnosis.

PARTICIPANTS

Twelve women aged 48-77 years from the UK (6), USA (4), Canada (1) and Australia (1) who had breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ n=9, (invasive) breast cancer n=3) diagnosed between 2004 and 2019, and who were aware of the possibility of overdiagnosis. Participants were recruited via online blogs and professional clinical networks.

RESULTS

Most women (10/12) became aware of overdiagnosis after their own diagnosis. All were concerned about the possibility of overdiagnosis or overtreatment or both. Finding out about overdiagnosis/overtreatment had negative psychosocial impacts on women's sense of self, quality of interactions with medical professionals, and for some, had triggered deep remorse about past decisions and actions. Many were uncomfortable with being treated as a cancer patient when they did not feel 'diseased'. For most, the recommended treatments seemed excessive compared with the diagnosis given. Most found that their initial clinical teams were not forthcoming about the possibility of overdiagnosis and overtreatment, and many found it difficult to deal with their set management protocols.

CONCLUSION

The experiences of this small and unusual group of women provide rare insight into the profound negative impact of finding out about overdiagnosis after breast cancer diagnosis. Previous studies have found that women valued information about overdiagnosis before screening and this knowledge did not reduce subsequent screening uptake. Policymakers and clinicians should recognise the diversity of women's perspectives and ensure that women are adequately informed of the possibility of overdiagnosis before screening.

A novel methodological framework was described for detecting and quantifying overdiagnosis

OBJECTIVES

Methods to quantify overdiagnosis of screen detected cancer have been developed, but methods for quantifying overdiagnosis of non-cancer conditions (whether symptomatic or asymptomatic) have been lacking. We aimed to develop a methodological framework for quantifying overdiagnosis that may be used for asymptomatic or symptomatic conditions, and used Gestational Diabetes Mellitus as an example of how it may be applied.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We identify two earlier definitions for overdiagnosis, a narrower prognosis-based definition, and a wider utility-based definition. Building on the central importance of the concepts of prognostic information and clinical utility of a diagnosis, we consider the following questions: within a target population, do people found to have a disease using one diagnostic strategy but found not to have the disease using another diagnostic strategy (so called 'additional diagnoses'), have an increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes without treatment (prognosis evidence), and/or a decreased risk of adverse outcomes with treatment (utility evidence)?

RESULTS

Using Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs and Fair Umpires, we illuminate the relationships between diagnostics strategies and the frequency of overdiagnosis. We then use the example of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus to demonstrate how the Fair Umpire framework may be applied to estimate overdiagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Our framework may be used to quantify overdiagnosis in non-cancer conditions (and in cancer conditions), as well as to guide further studies on this topic.

Estimating Overdiagnosis of Melanoma Using Trends Among Black and White Patients in the US

Importance

The incidence of cutaneous melanoma has been rising rapidly among White patients in the US; however, a commensurate increase in mortality due to melanoma has not been observed. These trends suggest overdiagnosis is occurring.

Objective

To quantify melanoma overdiagnosis among White patients compared with Black patients in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used joinpoint regression of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data from 1975 to 2014 to determine melanoma incidence and mortality trends among Black and White patients in the US. Using trends in mortality due to melanoma in Black patients as a marker for improvements in medical care, the expected mortality trends in White patients if medical care had not improved were estimated. This served as a marker for the change in true cancer occurrence. Overdiagnosis was calculated as the difference between observed incidence and estimated true cancer occurrence. Analyses were stratified by sex. Data were analyzed from September to December 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion of melanoma cases overdiagnosed among White patients in 2014.

Results

From 1975 to 2014, melanoma incidence increased approximately 4-fold in White women (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 4.01 [95% CI, 3.65-4.41]) and 6-fold in White men (IRR, 5.97 [95% CI, 5.47-6.52]), whereas it increased less than 25% in Black women (IRR, 1.21 [95% CI, 0.97-1.49]) and men (IRR, 1.17; [95% CI, 0.77-1.78]). Mortality due to melanoma decreased approximately 25% in Black women (morality rate ratio [MRR], 0.76 [95% CI, 0.63-0.90]) and men (MRR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.62-0.84]), was stable in White women (MRR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.96-1.09]), and increased almost 50% in White men (MRR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.25-1.77]). Had medical care not improved, estimated mortality would have increased 60% in White women and more than doubled in White men. Based on these trends, an estimated 59% (95% CI, 45%-70%) of White women and 60% (95% CI, 32%-75%) of White men with melanoma were overdiagnosed in 2014.

Conclusions and Relevance

The discrepancies in incidence and mortality trends found in this cohort study suggest considerable overdiagnosis of melanoma occurring among White patients in the US.

Overdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Prevented by guidelines?

Overdiagnosis refers to detection of disease that would not otherwise become clinically apparent during a patient's lifetime. Overdiagnosis is common and has been reported for several cancer types, although there are few studies describing its prevalence in HCC surveillance programs. Overdiagnosis can have serious negative consequences including overtreatment and associated complications, financial toxicity, and psychological harms related to being labeled with a cancer diagnosis. Overdiagnosis can occur for several different reasons including inaccurate diagnostic criteria, detection of premalignant or very early malignant lesions, detection of indolent tumors, and competing risks of mortality. The risk of overdiagnosis is partly mitigated, albeit not eliminated, by several guideline recommendations, including definitions for the at-risk population in whom surveillance should be performed, surveillance modalities, surveillance interval, recall procedures, and HCC diagnostic criteria. Continued research is needed to further characterize the burden and trends of overdiagnosis as well as identify strategies to reduce overdiagnosis in the future.

Initial and ten-year treatment patterns among 11,000 breast cancer patients undergoing breast surgery-an analysis of German claims data

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the potential of German claims data for describing initial and long-term treatment patterns of breast cancer patients undergoing surgery.

METHODS

Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD, ~ 20% of the German population) we included patients with invasive breast cancer diagnosed in 2008 undergoing breast surgery and followed them until 2017. We described initial and long-term treatment patterns and deaths. Analyses were stratified by stage (as far as available in claims data), age at diagnosis, and mode of detection (screen-detected vs. interval vs. unscreened cases).

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 10,802 patients. The proportion with neoadjuvant therapy was highest in patients < 50 years (19% vs. ≤ 8% at older ages). The proportion initiating adjuvant chemotherapy within four months after diagnosis decreased with age (< 50 years: 63%, 50-69: 46%, 70-79: 27%, 80 + : 4%). Among women < 69 years, ~ 30% had two breast surgeries in year one (70-79: 21%, 80 + : 14%). Treatment intensity was lower for screen-detected compared to interval or unscreened cases, both in year one (e.g., proportion with mastectomy ~ 50% lower) and within 2-10 years after surgery (proportions with radiotherapy or chemotherapy about one third lower each).

CONCLUSIONS

This study illustrates the potential of routine data to describe breast cancer treatment and provided important insights into differences in initial and long-term treatment by mode of detection and age.

Assessing the Potential for Patient-led Surveillance After Treatment of Localized Melanoma (MEL-SELF): A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Patient-led surveillance is a promising new model of follow-up care following excision of localized melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether patient-led surveillance in patients with prior localized primary cutaneous melanoma is as safe, feasible, and acceptable as clinician-led surveillance.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a pilot for a randomized clinical trial at 2 specialist-led clinics in metropolitan Sydney, Australia, and a primary care skin cancer clinic managed by general practitioners in metropolitan Newcastle, Australia. The participants were 100 patients who had been treated for localized melanoma, owned a smartphone, had a partner to assist with skin self-examination (SSE), and had been routinely attending scheduled follow-up visits. The study was conducted from November 1, 2018, to January 17, 2020, with analysis performed from September 1, 2020, to November 15, 2020.

INTERVENTION

Participants were randomized (1:1) to 6 months of patient-led surveillance (the intervention comprised usual care plus reminders to perform SSE, patient-performed dermoscopy, teledermatologist assessment, and fast-tracked unscheduled clinic visits) or clinician-led surveillance (the control was usual care).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the proportion of eligible and contacted patients who were randomized. Secondary outcomes included patient-reported outcomes (eg, SSE knowledge, attitudes, and practices, psychological outcomes, other health care use) and clinical outcomes (eg, clinic visits, skin surgeries, subsequent new primary or recurrent melanoma).

RESULTS

Of 326 patients who were eligible and contacted, 100 (31%) patients (mean [SD] age, 58.7 [12.0] years; 53 [53%] men) were randomized to patient-led (n = 49) or clinician-led (n = 51) surveillance. Data were available on patient-reported outcomes for 66 participants and on clinical outcomes for 100 participants. Compared with clinician-led surveillance, patient-led surveillance was associated with increased SSE frequency (odds ratio [OR], 3.5; 95% CI, 0.9 to 14.0) and thoroughness (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 0.8 to 5.7), had no detectable adverse effect on psychological outcomes (fear of cancer recurrence subscale score; mean difference, -1.3; 95% CI, -3.1 to 0.5), and increased clinic visits (risk ratio [RR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1), skin lesion excisions (RR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6 to 2.0), and subsequent melanoma diagnoses and subsequent melanoma diagnoses (risk difference, 10%; 95% CI, -2% to 23%). New primary melanomas and 1 local recurrence were diagnosed in 8 (16%) of the participants in the intervention group, including 5 (10%) ahead of routinely scheduled visits; and in 3 (6%) of the participants in the control group, with none (0%) ahead of routinely scheduled visits (risk difference, 10%; 95% CI, 2% to 19%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This pilot of a randomized clinical trial found that patient-led surveillance after treatment of localized melanoma appears to be safe, feasible, and acceptable. Experiences from this pilot study have prompted improvements to the trial processes for the larger trial of the same intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

http://anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12616001716459.

Primary care system factors and clinical decision-making in patients that could have lung cancer: A vignette study in five balkan region countries

Introduction

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death, with wide variations in national survival rates. This study compares primary care system factors and primary care practitioners’ (PCPs’) clinical decision-making for a vignette of a patient that could have lung cancer in five Balkan region countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania).

Methods

PCPs participated in an online questionnaire that asked for demographic data, practice characteristics, and information on health system factors. Participants were also asked to make clinical decisions in a vignette of a patient with possible lung cancer.

Results

The survey was completed by 475 PCPs. There were significant national differences in PCPs’ direct access to investigations, particularly to advanced imaging. PCPs from Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania were more likely to organise relevant investigations. The highest specialist referral rates were in Bulgaria and Romania. PCPs in Bulgaria were less likely to have access to clinical guidelines, and PCPs from Slovenia and Croatia were more likely to have access to a cancer fast-track specialist appointment system. The PCPs’ country had a significant effect on their likelihood of investigating or referring the patient.

Conclusions

There are large differences between Balkan region countries in PCPs’ levels of direct access to investigations. When faced with a vignette of a patient with the possibility of having lung cancer, their investigation and referral rates vary considerably. To reduce diagnostic delay in lung cancer, direct PCP access to advanced imaging, availability of relevant clinical guidelines, and fast-track referral systems are needed.

Women's conceptual knowledge about breast cancer screening and overdiagnosis in Norway: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate conceptual knowledge about mammographic screening among Norwegian women.

DESIGN

We administered a cross-sectional, web-based survey. We used multiple-choice questions and a grading rubric published by a research group from Australia.

SETTING

Our Norwegian-language survey was open from April to June 2020 and targeted women aged 45-74 years.

PARTICIPANTS

2033 women completed our questionnaire. We excluded 13 women outside the target age range and 128 women with incomplete data. Responses from 1892 women were included in the final study sample.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The questionnaire focused on women's knowledge about the breast cancer mortality reduction, false positive results and overdiagnosis associated with mammographic screening. The primary outcome was the mean number of marks assigned in each of the three themes and overall. There were three potential marks for questions about breast cancer mortality, one for false positives and six for overdiagnosis.

RESULTS

Most women (91.7%) correctly reported that screened women are less likely to die of breast cancer than non-screened women. 39.7% of women reported having heard of a 'false positive screening result' and 86.2% identified the term's definition; 51.3% of women had heard of 'overdiagnosis' and 14.8% identified the term's definition. The mean score was 2.59 of 3 for questions about breast cancer mortality benefit and 0.93 of 1 for the question about false positive screening results. It was 2.23 of 6 for questions about overdiagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Most participants correctly answered questions about the breast cancer mortality benefit and false positive results associated with screening. The proportion of correct responses to questions about overdiagnosis was modest, indicating that conceptual knowledge about overdiagnosis was lower. Qualitative studies that can obtain in-depth information about women's understanding of overdiagnosis may help improve Norwegian-language information about this challenging topic.

Temporal and geographical variations of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in France during 1986-2015: The impact of overdiagnosis

BACKGROUND

France is among the countries showing fastest growth of thyroid cancer (TC) incidence and highest incidence rates in Europe. This study aimed to clarify the temporal and geographical variations of TC in France and to quantify the impact of overdiagnosis.

METHODS

We obtained TC incidence data in 1986-2015, and mortality data in 1976-2015, for eight French departments covering 8% of the national population, and calculated the age-standardised rates (ASR). We estimated the average annual percent changes (AAPC) of TC incidence, overall and by department and histological subtype. Numbers and proportions of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis were estimated by department and period, based on the comparison between the shape of the age-specific curves with that observed prior to changes in diagnostic practice.

RESULTS

During 1986-2015, there were 13,557 TC cases aged 15-84 years. Large variations of TC incidence were observed across departments, with the highest ASR and the fastest increase in Isère. Papillary subtype accounted for 82.8% of the cases, and presented an AAPC of 7.0% and 7.6% in women and men, respectively. Anaplastic TC incidence decreased annually 3.0% in women and 0.8% in men. Mortality rates declined consistently for all departments. The absolute number (and proportion) of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis grew from 1074 (66%) in 1986-1995 to 3830 (72%) in 2006-2015 in women, and varied substantially across departments.

CONCLUSIONS

Overdiagnosis plays an important role in the temporal and regional variations of TC incidence in France. Monitoring the time trends and regulating the regional healthcare practice are needed to reduce its impact.

SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY: DIAGNOSTIC EFFICACY-ISSUES AND CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE 2020S

Diagnostic efficacy in medical imaging is ultimately a reflection of radiologist performance. This can be influenced by numerous factors, some of which are patient related, such as the physical size and density of the breast, and machine related, where some lesions are difficult to visualise on traditional imaging techniques. Other factors are human reader errors that occur during the diagnostic process, which relate to reader experience and their perceptual and cognitive oversights. Given the large-scale nature of breast cancer screening, even small increases in diagnostic performance equate to large numbers of women saved. It is important to identify the causes of diagnostic errors and how detection efficacy can be improved. This narrative review will therefore explore the various factors that influence mammographic performance and the potential solutions used in an attempt to ameliorate the errors made.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Ultrasound Screening for Thyroid Cancer in Asymptomatic Adults

Objectives: This study evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of ultrasound screening for thyroid cancer compared with non-screening in asymptomatic adults.

Methods: Applying a Markov decision-tree model with effectiveness and cost data from literature, we compared the long-term cost-effectiveness of the two strategies: ultrasound screening and non-screening for thyroid cancer. A one-way sensitivity analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to verify the stability of model results.

Results: The cumulative cost of screening for thyroid cancer was $18,819.24, with 18.74 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whereas the cumulative cost of non-screening was $15,864.28, with 18.71 QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $106,947.50/QALY greatly exceeded the threshold of $50,000. The result of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility values of benign nodules and utility of health after thyroid cancer surgery would affect the results.

Conclusions: Ultrasound screening for thyroid cancer has no obvious advantage in terms of cost-effectiveness compared with non-screening. The optimized thyroid screening strategy for a specific population is essential.

Updates in Prostate Cancer Research and Screening in Men at Genetically Higher Risk

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the most common cancer in men in the western world and is a major source of morbidity and mortality. Currently, general population PrCa screening is not recommended due to the limitations of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. As such, there is increasing interest in identifying and screening higher-risk groups. The only established risk factors for PrCa are age, ethnicity, and having a family history of PrCa. A significant proportion of PrCa cases are caused by genetic factors.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several rare germline variants have been identified that moderately increase risk of PrCa, and targeting screening to these men is proving useful at detecting clinically significant disease. The use of a "polygenic risk score" (PRS) that can calculate a man's personalized risk based on a number of lower-risk, but common genetic variants is the subject of ongoing research. Research efforts are currently focusing on the utility of screening in specific at-risk populations based on ethnicity, such as men of Black Afro-Caribbean descent. Whilst most screening studies have focused on use of PSA testing, the incorporation of additional molecular and genomic biomarkers alongside increasingly sophisticated imaging modalities is being designed to further refine and individualise both the screening and diagnostic pathway. Approximately 10% of men with advanced PrCa have a germline genetic predisposition leading to the opportunity for novel, targeted precision treatments.

SUMMARY

The mainstreaming of genomics into the PrCa screening, diagnostic and treatment pathway will soon become standard practice and this review summarises current knowledge on genetic predisposition to PrCa and screening studies that are using genomics within their algorithms to target screening to higher-risk groups of men. Finally, we evaluate the importance of germline genetics beyond screening and diagnostics, and its role in the identification of lethal PrCa and in the selection of targeted treatments for advanced disease.

Multi-Omic Approaches to Breast Cancer Metabolic Phenotyping: Applications in Diagnosis, Prognosis, and the Development of Novel Treatments

Breast cancer (BC) is characterized by high disease heterogeneity and represents the most frequently diagnosed cancer among women worldwide. Complex and subtype-specific gene expression alterations participate in disease development and progression, with BC cells known to rewire their cellular metabolism to survive, proliferate, and invade. Hence, as an emerging cancer hallmark, metabolic reprogramming holds great promise for cancer diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. Multi-omics approaches (the combined analysis of various types of omics data) offer opportunities to advance our understanding of the molecular changes underlying metabolic rewiring in complex diseases such as BC. Recent studies focusing on the combined analysis of genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and/or metabolomics in different BC subtypes have provided novel insights into the specificities of metabolic rewiring and the vulnerabilities that may guide therapeutic development and improve patient outcomes. This review summarizes the findings of multi-omics studies focused on the characterization of the specific metabolic phenotypes of BC and discusses how they may improve clinical BC diagnosis, subtyping, and treatment.

A Low-Dose CT-Based Radiomic Model to Improve Characterization and Screening Recall Intervals of Indeterminate Prevalent Pulmonary Nodules

Lung cancer (LC) is currently one of the main causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of the chest has been proven effective in secondary prevention (i.e., early detection) of LC by several trials. In this work, we investigated the potential impact of radiomics on indeterminate prevalent pulmonary nodule (PN) characterization and risk stratification in subjects undergoing LDCT-based LC screening. As a proof-of-concept for radiomic analyses, the first aim of our study was to assess whether indeterminate PNs could be automatically classified by an LDCT radiomic classifier as solid or sub-solid (first-level classification), and in particular for sub-solid lesions, as non-solid versus part-solid (second-level classification). The second aim of the study was to assess whether an LCDT radiomic classifier could automatically predict PN risk of malignancy, and thus optimize LDCT recall timing in screening programs. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. The experimental results showed that an LDCT radiomic machine learning classifier can achieve excellent performance for characterization of screen-detected PNs (mean AUC of 0.89 ± 0.02 and 0.80 ± 0.18 on the blinded test dataset for the first-level and second-level classifiers, respectively), providing quantitative information to support clinical management. Our study showed that a radiomic classifier could be used to optimize LDCT recall for indeterminate PNs. According to the performance of such a classifier on the blinded test dataset, within the first 6 months, 46% of the malignant PNs and 38% of the benign ones were identified, improving early detection of LC by doubling the current detection rate of malignant nodules from 23% to 46% at a low cost of false positives. In conclusion, we showed the high potential of LDCT-based radiomics for improving the characterization and optimizing screening recall intervals of indeterminate PNs.

Estimation of overdiagnosis in colorectal cancer screening with sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood testing: comparison of simulation models

OBJECTIVE

To estimate overdiagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) for screening with sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood testing (FOBT).

DESIGN

Simulation study using data from randomised trials.

SETTING

Primary screening, UK, Norway PARTICIPANTS: 152 850 individuals from the Nottingham trial and 98 678 individuals from the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) trial.

INTERVENTION

CRC screening.

OUTCOME MEASURE

We estimated overdiagnosis using long-term data from two randomised trials: the Nottingham trial comparing FOBT screening every other year to no-screening, and the NORCCAP trial comparing once-only sigmoidoscopy screening to no-screening. To estimate the natural growth of adenomas to CRC, we used the following microsimulation models: (i) the Microsimulation Screening Analysis; (ii) the CRC Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history; (iii) the Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer; (iv) a model derived by the German Cancer Research Center. We defined overdiagnosed cancers as the difference between the observed number of CRCs in the no-screening arm and the expected number of cancers in screening arm (sum of observed and prevented by adenoma removal). The amount of overdiagnosis is defined as the number of overdiagnosed cancers over the number of cancers observed in the no-screening arm.

RESULTS

Overdiagnosis estimates were highly dependent on model assumptions. For FOBT screening with 2354 cancers observed in control arm, four out of five models predicted overdiagnosis, range 2.0% (2400 cancers expected in screening) to 7.6% (2533 cancers expected in screening). For sigmoidoscopy screening with 452 cancers observed in control arm, all models predicted overdiagnosis, range 25.2% (566 cancers expected in screening) to 128.1% (1031 cancers expected in screening).

CONCLUSIONS

The amount of overdiagnosis estimated based on the microsimulation models varied substantially. Microsimulation models may not give reliable estimates of the preventive effect of adenoma removal, and should be used with caution to inform guidelines.

Overdiagnosis of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Scoping Review

IMPORTANCE

Reported increases in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnoses are accompanied by growing debate about the underlying factors. Although overdiagnosis is often suggested, no comprehensive evaluation of evidence for or against overdiagnosis has ever been undertaken and is urgently needed to enable evidence-based, patient-centered diagnosis and treatment of ADHD in contemporary health services.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically identify, appraise, and synthesize the evidence on overdiagnosis of ADHD in children and adolescents using a published 5-question framework for detecting overdiagnosis in noncancer conditions.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

This systematic scoping review adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) Extension for Scoping Reviews and Joanna Briggs Methodology, including the PRISMA-ScR Checklist. MEDLINE, Embase, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched for studies published in English between January 1, 1979, and August 21, 2020. Studies of children and adolescents (aged ≤18 years) with ADHD that focused on overdiagnosis plus studies that could be mapped to 1 or more framework question were included. Two researchers independently reviewed all abstracts and full-text articles, and all included studies were assessed for quality.

FINDINGS

Of the 12 267 potentially relevant studies retrieved, 334 (2.7%) were included. Of the 334 studies, 61 (18.3%) were secondary and 273 (81.7%) were primary research articles. Substantial evidence of a reservoir of ADHD was found in 104 studies, providing a potential for diagnoses to increase (question 1). Evidence that actual ADHD diagnosis had increased was found in 45 studies (question 2). Twenty-five studies showed that these additional cases may be on the milder end of the ADHD spectrum (question 3), and 83 studies showed that pharmacological treatment of ADHD was increasing (question 4). A total of 151 studies reported on outcomes of diagnosis and pharmacological treatment (question 5). However, only 5 studies evaluated the critical issue of benefits and harms among the additional, milder cases. These studies supported a hypothesis of diminishing returns in which the harms may outweigh the benefits for youths with milder symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This review found evidence of ADHD overdiagnosis and overtreatment in children and adolescents. Evidence gaps remain and future research is needed, in particular research on the long-term benefits and harms of diagnosing and treating ADHD in youths with milder symptoms; therefore, practitioners should be mindful of these knowledge gaps, especially when identifying these individuals and to ensure safe and equitable practice and policy.

Overdiagnosis: one concept, three perspectives, and a model

Defining, estimating, communicating about, and dealing with overdiagnosis is challenging. One reason for this is because overdiagnosis is a complex phenomenon. In this article we try to show that the complexity can be analysed and addressed in terms of three perspectives, i.e., that of the person, the professional, and the population. Individuals are informed about overdiagnosis based on population-based estimates. These estimates depend on professionals' conceptions and models of disease and diagnostic criteria. These conceptions in turn depend on individuals' experience of suffering, and on population level outcomes from diagnostics and treatment. As the personal, professional, and populational perspectives are not easy to reconcile, we must address them explicitly and facilitate interaction. Population-based estimates of overdiagnosis must be more directly informed by personal need for information. So must disease definitions and diagnostic criteria. Only then can individuals be appropriately informed about overdiagnosis.

Harms and Benefits of Cancer Screening

In recommending and offering screening, health services make a health claim ('it's good for you'). This article considers ethical aspects of establishing the case for cancer screening, building a service programme, monitoring its operation, improving its quality and integrating it with medical progress. The value of (first) screening is derived as a function of key parameters: prevalence of the target lesion in the detectable pre-clinical phase, the validity of the test and the respective net utilities or values attributed to four health states-true positives, false positives, false negatives and true negatives. Decision makers as diverse as public regulatory agencies, medical associations, health insurance funds or individual screenees can legitimately come up with different values even when presented with the same evidence base. The main intended benefit of screening is the reduction of cause-specific mortality. All-cause mortality is not measurably affected. Overdiagnosis and false-positive tests with their sequelae are the main harms. Harms and benefits accrue to distinct individuals. Hence the health claim is an invitation to a lottery with benefits for few and harms to many, a violation of the non-maleficence principle. While a public decision maker may still propose a justified screening programme, respect for individual rights and values requires preference-sensitive, autonomy-enhancing educational materials-even at the expense of programme effectiveness. Opt-in recommendations and more 'consumer-oriented' qualitative research are needed.

Cancer Screening in Older Adults: Individualized Decision-Making and Communication Strategies

Cancer screening decisions in older adults can be complex due to the unclear cancer-specific mortality benefits of screening and several known harms including false positives, overdiagnosis, and procedural complications from downstream diagnostic interventions. In this review, we provide a framework for individualized cancer screening decisions among older adults, involving accounting for overall health and life expectancy, individual values, and the risks and benefits of specific cancer screening tests. We then discuss strategies for effective communication of recommendations during clinical visits that are considered more effective, easy to understand, and acceptable by older adults and clinicians.

Primary care practitioners' diagnostic action when the patient may have cancer: an exploratory vignette study in 20 European countries

OBJECTIVES

Cancer survival rates vary widely between European countries, with differences in timeliness of diagnosis thought to be one key reason. There is little evidence on the way in which different healthcare systems influence primary care practitioners' (PCPs) referral decisions in patients who could have cancer.This study aimed to explore PCPs' diagnostic actions (whether or not they perform a key diagnostic test and/or refer to a specialist) in patients with symptoms that could be due to cancer and how they vary across European countries.

DESIGN

A primary care survey. PCPs were given vignettes describing patients with symptoms that could indicate cancer and asked how they would manage these patients. The likelihood of taking immediate diagnostic action (a diagnostic test and/or referral) in the different participating countries was analysed. Comparisons between the likelihood of taking immediate diagnostic action and physician characteristics were calculated.

SETTING

Centres in 20 European countries with widely varying cancer survival rates.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2086 PCPs answered the survey question, with a median of 72 PCPs per country.

RESULTS

PCPs' likelihood of immediate diagnostic action at the first consultation varied from 50% to 82% between countries. PCPs who were more experienced were more likely to take immediate diagnostic action than their peers.

CONCLUSION

When given vignettes of patients with a low but significant possibility of cancer, more than half of PCPs across Europe would take diagnostic action, most often by ordering diagnostic tests. However, there are substantial between-country variations.

Cellular morphological features are predictive markers of cancer cell state

Even genetically identical cells have heterogeneous properties because of stochasticity in gene or protein expression. Single cell techniques that assay heterogeneous properties would be valuable for basic science and diseases like cancer, where accurate estimates of tumor properties is critical for accurate diagnosis and grading. Cell morphology is an emergent outcome of many cellular processes, potentially carrying information about cell properties at the single cell level. Here we study whether morphological parameters are sufficient for classification of single cells, using a set of 15 cell lines, representing three processes: (i) the transformation of normal cells using specific genetic mutations; (ii) metastasis in breast cancer and (iii) metastasis in osteosarcomas. Cellular morphology is defined as quantitative measures of the shape of the cell and the structure of the actin. We use a toolbox that calculates quantitative morphological parameters of cell images and apply it to hundreds of images of cells belonging to different cell lines. Using a combination of dimensional reduction and machine learning, we test whether these different processes have specific morphological signatures and whether single cells can be classified based on morphology alone. Using morphological parameters we could accurately classify cells as belonging to the correct class with high accuracy. Morphological signatures could distinguish between cells that were different only because of a different mutation on a parental line. Furthermore, both oncogenesis and metastasis appear to be characterized by stereotypical morphology changes. Thus, cellular morphology is a signature of cell phenotype, or state, at the single cell level.

Blood Analysis Requests of Patients’ and Clinical Reflections in Primary Care

Aim: The aim of the study is to determine the factors that may affect the demands of patients who come with the request to have a blood test without any chronic disease or a planned examination check. Methods: The data of this descriptive, cross-sectional study, were collected with a questionnaire that was prepared to examine the opinions of the patients who claim to have a blood test by coming to the family health center without any complaints. Patients over 18 years of age, who did not have any chronic disease and had no scheduled examination appointments were included in the study. Results: A total of 278 patients who wanted to have a blood test within the 6-months period were included in the study. Female patients who wanted to have a blood test were significantly more than male patients. When we look at the causes of patients who wanted to have a blood test; 61.2% (n=170) patients stated that they are concerned about their health and 6.1% (n=17) stated that they were affected by media warnings. There was no significant relationship between the frequency of blood test requests of patients and their age, gender, education, and general health status. Conclusion: Patients with high expectations and anxiety may be more willing to perform blood tests at inappropriate intervals. Family physicians, whose primary role is preventive medicine, have consultancy and information duties in order to protect their patients from the risk of over-examination and diagnosis. Keywords: blood tests, patient, screening, routine diagnostic tests

Long-term Incidence and Mortality Trends for Breast Cancer in Germany

Introduction Changes in risk factors and the introduction of mammography screening in 2005 have led to dramatic changes in the breast cancer-associated burden of disease in Germany. This study aimed to investigate long-term disease-related incidence and mortality trends in women from East and West Germany since the reunification of Germany. Methods Total and stage-specific incidence rates were evaluated based on data obtained from selected cancer registries. Sufficiently complete data going back to 1995 were available for 4 East German and 3 West German regions. The figures were weighted for population size, and rates were calculated for the whole of Germany based on the rates for East and West Germany. The study particularly focused on 3 different age groups: women eligible for mammography screening (50 - 69 years), younger women (30 - 49 years) and older women (70+ years). All rates were standardised for age. The mortality rates obtained from the official statistics on cause of death since 1990 were processed accordingly. Results Incidence rates in the observation period increased, as they were affected by the increasing number of cases with early-stage cancers being diagnosed in the screening age group. The total incidence for this group, which included the incidence of non-invasive breast cancers, increased by 14.5% between 2005 and 2016. Early-stage cancers (UICC stages 0 and I) increased by 48.1% while late-stage diagnoses (UICC stages III and IV) decreased by 31.6%. Qualitatively similar changes were noted for the other age groups, although they were less pronounced. The decrease in breast cancer mortality observed since the mid-1990s ended around 2008 for the group of younger women but continued in the screening age group. After 2008, an increase in mortality was observed in the group of older women. The differences in disease burden between East and West Germany (in favour of East Germany) decreased in younger women during the observation period but tended to increase in the group of older women. Conclusion The analysis suggests that the introduction of mammography screening contributed to a decrease in the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancers and in breast cancer-related mortality rates but also resulted in a substantial number of overdiagnoses. The relatively unfavourable incidence trend in the group of younger women, particularly in East Germany, should be interpreted in the context of lifestyle changes. The slight increase in mortality observed in the group of older women after 2008 requires further analysis.

Racial Disparities in Cancer Presentation and Outcomes: The Contribution of Overdiagnosis

Background

Racial disparities in cancer have been attributed to population differences in access to care. Differences in cancer overdiagnosis rates are another, less commonly considered cause of disparities. Here, we examine the contribution of overdiagnosis to observed racial disparities in papillary thyroid cancer and estrogen/progesterone receptor positive (ER/PR+) breast cancer.

Methods

We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, End-Results (SEER) 13 for analysis of white and black non-Hispanic persons with papillary thyroid cancer or ER/PR+ breast cancer (1992–2014). Analyses were performed using SeerStat (v8.3.5, March 2018). All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

White persons had higher incidence of papillary thyroid cancer than black persons (14.3 vs 7.7 cases per 100 000 age-adjusted population) and ER/PR+ breast cancer (94.8 vs 70.9 cases per 100 000 age-adjusted population) (P < .001). In papillary thyroid cancer, the entire incidence difference was from more frequent diagnosis of 2-cm or less (10.0 vs 4.9 cases per 100 000 population) and localized or regional (13.8 vs 7.4 cases per 100 000 population) cancers in white persons (P < .001), without corresponding excess of metastatic disease, cancers greater than 4 cm, or incidence-based mortality in black persons. In women with ER/PR+ breast cancer, 95% of the incidence difference was from more 2-cm or less (61.2 vs 38.1 cases per 100 000 population) or 2.1- to 5-cm (25.4 vs 23.4 cases per 100 000 population), localized (65.1 vs 43.0 cases per 100 000 population) cancers diagnosed in white women (P < .001), with slightly higher incidence of tumors greater than 5 cm (10.1 vs 9.3 cases per 100 000 population, P < .001) and incidence-based mortality (8.1 vs 7.2 cases per 100 000 population, P < .001) among black women. Overall, 20–30 additional small or localized ER/PR+ breast cancers were diagnosed in white compared with black women for every large or advanced tumor avoided by early detection. Overdiagnosis was estimated 1.3–2.5 times (papillary thyroid cancer) and 1.7–5.7 times (ER/PR+ breast cancer) higher in white compared with black populations.

Conclusions

Differences in low-risk cancer identification among populations lead to overestimation of racial disparities. Estimates of overdiagnosed cases should be considered to improve care and eliminate disparities while minimizing harms of overdiagnosis.

Defining and Evaluating Overdiagnosis in Mental Health: A Meta-Research Review

BACKGROUND

Overdiagnosis is thought to be common in some mental disorders, but it has not been defined or examined systematically. Assessing overdiagnosis in mental health requires a consistently applied definition that differentiates overdiagnosis from other problems (e.g., misdiagnosis), as well as methods for quantification.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to (1) describe how the term "overdiagnosis" has been defined explicitly or implicitly in published articles on mental disorders, including usages consistent (overdefinition, overdetection) and inconsistent (misdiagnosis, false-positive test results, overtreatment, overtesting) with accepted definitions of overdiagnosis; and (2) identify examples of attempts to quantify overdiagnosis.

METHOD

We searchedPubMed through January 5, 2019. Articles on mental disorders, excluding neurocognitive disorders, were eligible if they usedthe term "overdiagnosis" in the title, abstract, or text.

RESULTS

We identified 164 eligible articles with 193 total explicit or implicit uses of the term "overdiagnosis." Of 9 articles with an explicit definition, only one provided a definition that was partially consistent with accepted definitions. Of all uses, 11.4% were consistent, and 76.7% were related to misdiagnosis and thus inconsistent. No attempts to quantify the proportion of patients who were overdiagnosed based on overdetection or overdefinition were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

There are few examples of mental health articles that describe overdiagnosis consistent with accepted definitions and no examples of quantifying overdiagnosis based on these definitions. A definition of overdiagnosis based on diagnostic criteria that include people with transient or mild symptoms not amenable to treatment (overdefinition) could be used to quantify the extent of overdiagnosis in mental disorders.

An exploration for quantification of overdiagnosis and its effect for breast cancer screening

Objective

To redefine overdiagnosis and reestimate the proportion of overdiagnosis of breast cancer caused by screening based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER, 1973−2015) Program data.

Methods

The breast cancer diagnosed before 1977 was defined as the no-screening cohort since America had initiated breast cancer screening from 1977. The breast cancer diagnosed in 1999 was defined as the screening cohort due to no increases in both the proportion of early-stage breast cancer until 1999 and the overall survival of early-stage breast cancer diagnosed over the three years since 1999. The magnitude of overdiagnosis was calculated as the difference in the proportions of early-stage breast cancer patients with long-time (15-year) survival to all breast cancer patients between two cohorts.

Results

Over 23 years before and after widespread screening in America, the proportion of early-stage breast cancer patients increased from 52.1% (16,891/32,443) to 72.7% (16,021/22,025) (P<0.001). The 15-year survival rate of early-stage breast cancer patients increased from 51.1% to 61.5% (P<0.001), while the proportions of early-stage breast cancer patients with long-time survival to all breast cancer patients increased from 26.6% (52.1%×51.1%) to 44.7% (72.7%×61.5%). Assuming no improvements in cancer screening technology and treatment technology, 18.1% (44.7%−26.6%) of breast cancer patients were overdiagnosed associated with screening. The age-specific overdiagnosis rates were 18.9%, 24.7%, 24.5%, 20.5%, and 8.3% for breast cancer patients aged 40−49, 50−59, 60−69, 70−74, and ≥75 years old, respectively.

Conclusions

Overdiagnosis caused by mammographic screening is probably overestimated in current screening practices. Further trials with more sophisticated designs and analyses are needed to validate our findings in the future.

Overdiagnosis of lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography screening: meta-analysis of the randomised clinical trials

In low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer, all three main conditions for overdiagnosis in cancer screening are present: 1) a reservoir of slowly or nongrowing lung cancer exists; 2) LDCT is a high-resolution imaging technology with the potential to identify this reservoir; and 3) eligible screening participants have a high risk of dying from causes other than lung cancer. The degree of overdiagnosis in cancer screening is most validly estimated in high-quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), with enough follow-up time after the end of screening to avoid lead-time bias and without contamination of the control group. Nine RCTs investigating LDCT screening were identified. Two RCTs were excluded because lung cancer incidence after the end of screening was not published. Two other RCTs using active comparators were also excluded. Therefore, five RCTs were included: two trials were at low risk of bias, two of some concern and one at high risk of bias. In a meta-analysis of the two low risk of bias RCTs including 8156 healthy current or former smokers, 49% of the screen-detected cancers were overdiagnosed. There is uncertainty about this substantial degree of overdiagnosis due to unexplained heterogeneity and low precision of the summed estimate across the two trials.

Key points

Nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs) on low-dose computed tomography screening were identified; five were included for meta-analysis but only two of those were at low risk of bias.In a meta-analysis of recent low risk of bias RCTs including 8156 healthy current or former smokers from developed countries, we found that 49% of the screen-detected cancers may be overdiagnosed.There is uncertainty about the degree of overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening due to unexplained heterogeneity and low precision of the point estimate.If only high-quality RCTs are included in the meta-analysis, the degree of overdiagnosis is substantial.

Educational aims

To appreciate that low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer meets all three main conditions for overdiagnosis in cancer screening: a reservoir of indolent cancers exists in the population; the screening test is able to "tap" this reservoir by detecting biologically indolent cancers as well as biologically important cancers; and the population being screened is characterised by a relatively high competing risk of death from other causesTo learn about biases that might affect the estimates of overdiagnosis in randomised controlled trials in cancer screening.

Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer.

Design, setting, and participants

Routinely collected Australian Institute of Health and Welfare national data were analysed to estimate recent (2012) and historical (1982) lifetime risks (adjusted for competing risk of death and changes in risk factors) of diagnoses with five cancers: prostate, breast, renal, thyroid cancers, and melanoma.

Main outcome measure

Difference in lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2012, interpreted as probable overdiagnosis.

Results

For women, absolute lifetime risk increased by 3.4 percentage points for breast cancer (invasive cancers, 1.7 percentage points), 0.6 percentage point for renal cancer, 1.0 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 5.1 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 0.7 percentage point). An estimated 22% of breast cancers (invasive cancers, 13%), 58% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 54% of melanomas (invasive melanoma, 15%) were overdiagnosed, or 18% of all cancer diagnoses (8% of invasive cancer diagnoses). For men, absolute lifetime risk increased by 8.2 percentage points for prostate cancer, 0.8 percentage point for renal cancer, 0.4 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 8.0 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 1.5 percentage points). An estimated 42% of prostate cancers, 42% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 58% of melanomas (invasive melanomas, 22%) were overdiagnosed, or 24% of all cancer diagnoses (16% of invasive cancer diagnoses). Alternative assumptions slightly modified the estimates for overdiagnosis of breast cancer and melanoma.

Conclusions

About 11 000 cancers in women and 18 000 in men may be overdiagnosed each year. Rates of overdiagnosis need to be reduced and health services should monitor emerging areas of overdiagnosis.

Cancer cases detected in the prevention and control service of a private cancer clinic in Peru

Purpose

Describe the characteristics of patients seen at the Cancer Prevention and Control Service at a Peruvian private cancer clinic in 2014.

Patients and methods

This retrospective clinical study analyzed the prevalence of 10 cancers and characteristics of patients seen at a private cancer center located in Lima, Peru. The study sample included 7680 adults, and data were collected from de-identified medical records.

Results

The average age of the patients was 44.71 years and 98,82% of them had private insurance. The majority of patients were women (67.69%). Our gross incidence rate of cancer was 35.16 per 100,000 in the Cancer Prevention and Control Service in 2014. Only 0.35% had cancer, and most of those diagnosed with cancer (77.78%) were diagnosed in the early stages, stages I and II. The two most common cancers observed were breast and thyroid cancer.

Conclusions

The high rates of early, rather than late-stage diagnoses at this clinic are dramatically different than national rates. This difference may be because we are analyzing data from a prevention service seeing mainly patients with private insurance as opposed to national data, which consists primarily of patients seen in oncologic services with national insurance.

How European primary care practitioners think the timeliness of cancer diagnosis can be improved: a thematic analysis

BACKGROUND

National European cancer survival rates vary widely. Prolonged diagnostic intervals are thought to be a key factor in explaining these variations. Primary care practitioners (PCPs) frequently play a crucial role during initial cancer diagnosis; their knowledge could be used to improve the planning of more effective approaches to earlier cancer diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought the views of PCPs from across Europe on how they thought the timeliness of cancer diagnosis could be improved.

DESIGN

In an online survey, a final open-ended question asked PCPs how they thought the speed of diagnosis of cancer in primary care could be improved. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data.

SETTING

A primary care study, with participating centres in 20 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1352 PCPs answered the final survey question, with a median of 48 per country.

RESULTS

The main themes identified were: patient-related factors, including health education; care provider-related factors, including continuing medical education; improving communication and interprofessional partnership, particularly between primary and secondary care; factors relating to health system organisation and policies, including improving access to healthcare; easier primary care access to diagnostic tests; and use of information technology. Re-allocation of funding to support timely diagnosis was seen as an issue affecting all of these.

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve more timely cancer diagnosis, health systems need to facilitate earlier patient presentation through education and better access to care, have well-educated clinicians with good access to investigations and better information technology, and adequate primary care cancer diagnostic pathway funding.

Breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most frequent malignancy in women worldwide and is curable in ~70-80% of patients with early-stage, non-metastatic disease. Advanced breast cancer with distant organ metastases is considered incurable with currently available therapies. On the molecular level, breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease; molecular features include activation of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2, encoded by ERBB2), activation of hormone receptors (oestrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and/or BRCA mutations. Treatment strategies differ according to molecular subtype. Management of breast cancer is multidisciplinary; it includes locoregional (surgery and radiation therapy) and systemic therapy approaches. Systemic therapies include endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive disease, chemotherapy, anti-HER2 therapy for HER2-positive disease, bone stabilizing agents, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors for BRCA mutation carriers and, quite recently, immunotherapy. Future therapeutic concepts in breast cancer aim at individualization of therapy as well as at treatment de-escalation and escalation based on tumour biology and early therapy response. Next to further treatment innovations, equal worldwide access to therapeutic advances remains the global challenge in breast cancer care for the future.