A critical evaluation of the volume, relevance and quality of evidence submitted by the tobacco industry to oppose standardised packaging of tobacco products

Use of supporting evidence by health and industry organisations in the consultation on e-cigarette regulations in New Zealand

OBJECTIVES

Scientific evidence to support the development of appropriate policy for electronic cigarette use is limited by rapidly changing technology and a lack of long-term data. Perceptions of risk and benefits determine diverse framings of the e-cigarette debate and complicate policy decisions. E-cigarette use by smokers who are attempting to quit may result in improved health outcomes, while their use among young people and non-smokers may lead to adverse health consequences. The purpose of this study was to identify the types of evidence used during public consultations on proposed revisions to New Zealand's e-cigarette legislation in 2020.

METHODS

Using submissions to parliament made by the tobacco/e-cigarette industry and the health sector, we assessed the cited evidence for quality and independence measured by publication type and tobacco industry connections. We identified themes from a sub-sample of frequently cited evidence to understand how stakeholders and organisations used evidence.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 57 submissions from the e-cigarette and tobacco industry (n = 21) and health organisations (n = 36). A total of 442 pieces of evidence were cited at least once. Health organisations were more likely to cite peer-reviewed evidence (OR = 2.99). The industry was more likely to cite evidence outside of peer review and sources with tobacco industry connections (OR = 4.08). In the sample of frequently cited evidence, youth prevalence and flavours were the most common themes. In some cases the same evidence was used by both groups to support opposing policy positions.

CONCLUSIONS

The industry continues to rely more heavily on evidence published outside of the peer-review process, which is, therefore, subjected to less scientific scrutiny. By using a smoking-cessation or harm-reduction narrative, the industry could be seen as a legitimate stakeholder in policy development.

Do different actors submit different evidence to alcohol advertising policy consultations?

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the extent to which industry and non-industry actors draw from the same (vs. different) bodies of peer-reviewed evidence in submissions to alcohol advertising policy consultations.

METHODS

Submissions (n = 71) to two Australian public consultations about alcohol advertising policy were classified as submitted by industry or non-industry actors. Details of cited journal articles were extracted. Articles were coded according to whether: (i) cited in industry and/or non-industry actor submission/s; (ii) findings were supported or contested by the submitter; and (iii) the article was a systematic review. The most frequently cited first authors were identified.

RESULTS

In total, 126 articles were cited in 45 industry actor submissions and 159 articles were cited in 26 non-industry actor submissions. Only seven articles were cited by both groups. Authors cited most frequently by one actor group were rarely cited by the other group. The first author most cited by industry actors declared alcohol industry links in two articles. Industry actors cited three systematic reviews (and contested the findings); non-industry actors cited (and supported) seven systematic reviews.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

There was a low degree of overlap in peer-reviewed evidence cited by industry and non-industry actors in submissions to Australian alcohol advertising policy consultations. Industry actors often omitted or contested high-quality evidence. Industry actors placed greater emphasis on evidence published by one industry-linked researcher than on evidence from systematic reviews and researchers with no apparent conflicts of interest. The findings raise questions about the suitability of industry actors to participate in evidence-informed policymaking processes.

An evaluation of the evidence submitted to Australian alcohol advertising policy consultations

BACKGROUND

Industry self-regulation is the dominant approach to managing alcohol advertising in Australia and many other countries. There is a need to explore the barriers to government adoption of more effective regulatory approaches. This study examined relevance and quality features of evidence cited by industry and non-industry actors in their submissions to Australian alcohol advertising policy consultations.

METHODS

Submissions to two public consultations with a primary focus on alcohol advertising policy were analysed. Submissions (n = 71) were classified into their actor type (industry or non-industry) and according to their expressed support for, or opposition to, increased regulation of alcohol advertising. Details of cited evidence were extracted and coded against a framework adapted from previous research (primary codes: subject matter relevance, type of publication, time since publication, and independence from industry). Evidence was also classified as featuring indicators of higher quality if it was either published in a peer-reviewed journal or academic source, published within 10 years of the consultation, and/or had no apparent industry connection.

RESULTS

Almost two-thirds of submissions were from industry actors (n = 45 submissions from alcohol, advertising, or sporting industries). With few exceptions, industry actor submissions opposed increased regulation of alcohol advertising and non-industry actor submissions supported increased regulation. Industry actors cited substantially less evidence than non-industry actors, both per submission and in total. Only 27% of evidence cited by industry actors was highly relevant and featured at least two indicators of higher quality compared to 58% of evidence cited by non-industry actors.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluation of the value of the evidentiary contribution of industry actors to consultations on alcohol advertising policy appears to be limited. Modifications to consultation processes, such as exclusion of industry actors, quality requirements for submitted evidence, minimum standards for referencing evidence, and requirements to declare potential conflicts, may improve the public health outcomes of policy consultations.

Analysis of submissions to the EU's public consultation on tobacco traceability and security features

BACKGROUND

The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products requires all parties to establish a tobacco track and trace (T&T) system. In 2016, the European Commission held a public consultation on T&T implementation where parties were asked to respond online to 22 multiple-choice questions and were given additional opportunities to leave comments. In May 2019, the European Union's (EU) T&T system became operational. This paper explores tobacco industry influence over and policy positions within the consultation process.

METHODS

We identified consultation respondents and investigated any financial links with the tobacco industry and if these were transparent. Respondent's answers to the consultation's multiple-choice questions were collated to explore whether industry-linked respondents held the same policy positions as transnational tobacco companies (TTCs). Associations between policy positions and respondent's financial link status were tested using χ2 and Cranmer's V tests.

FINDINGS

Of the 197 consultation respondents identified, 131 (66.4%) had financial links to the industry; 29 (22.1%) were not transparent about these links. A large number of trade associations responded (87), the majority of which (74/87) had financial links to the industry. There was a clear divide in the policy preferences of respondents with and without a financial link. Collectively, respondents with a financial link supported an industry-operated T&T solution.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an extensive lobbying effort by the tobacco industry over the EU's T&T system, with TTCs' interests being represented repeatedly through multiple trade associations. The transparency requirements regarding consultation respondents' affiliations with relevant stakeholders (eg, tobacco manufacturers) should be improved for future consultations.

Longitudinal evaluation of the impact of standardised packaging and minimum excise tax on tobacco sales and industry revenue in the UK

BACKGROUND

Standardised packaging for factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO), and a minimum excise tax (MET) were fully implemented in the UK in May 2017 following a 12-month transition period. This paper is the first to examine effects on tobacco sales volumes and company revenues.

METHODS

Analysis of UK commercial supermarket and convenience store electronic point of sale data on tobacco sales. FM and RYO products' data (May 2015-April 2018) yielded 107 572 monthly observations. Expected values from additive mixed modelling were used to calculate trends in: (1) volumes of tobacco sold overall, by cigarette type (FM and RYO) and by seven market segments; and (2) company net revenues. A 10-month period (June 2015-March 2016) before the transition to standardised packs was compared with a 10-month period after the introduction of the MET and full implementation of standardised packs (June 2017-March 2018).

RESULTS

Postimplementation, the average monthly decline in stick sales was 6.4 million (95% CI 0.1 million to 12.7 million) sticks faster than prelegislation, almost doubling the speed of decline. Sales of cheap FM brands, previously increasing, plateaued after implementation. Company monthly net revenues declined from a stable £231 million (95% CI £228 million to £234 million), prelegislation, to £198 million (95% CI £191 million to £206 million) in April 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

The concurrent introduction of standardised packaging and MET in the UK was associated with significant decline in sales and in tobacco industry revenues, and the end of the previous growth in cheap cigarette brands that appeal to young and price conscious smokers.

Commercial use of evidence in public health policy: a critical assessment of food industry submissions to global-level consultations on non-communicable disease prevention

BACKGROUND

Ultra-processed food industry (UPFI) actors have consistently opposed statutory regulation in health policy debates, including at the WHO. They do so most commonly with claims that regulatory policies do not work, will have negative consequences or that alternatives such as self-regulation work well or better. Underlying this are often assertions that industry is aligned with principles of evidence-based policymaking. In this study, we interrogate if this holds true by exploring the extent and quality of the evidence UPFI respondents employed to support claims around regulatory policy, and how they did this.

METHODS

First, we identified all submissions from organisations who overtly represent UPFI companies to consultations held by the WHO on non-communicable disease policy between 2016 and 2018. Second, we extracted all relevant factual claims made in these submissions and noted if any evidence was referenced in support. Third, we assessed the quality of evidence using independence from UPFI, nature, and publication route as indicators. Lastly, where peer-reviewed research was cited, we examined if the claims made could be justified by the source cited.

RESULTS

Across 26 included consultation responses, factual claims around regulation were made in 18, although only 10 referenced any evidence at all. Of all 114 claims made, 39 pieces of identifiable evidence were cited in support of 56 claims. Of the 39 distinct pieces of evidence, two-thirds were industry-funded or industry-linked, with only 16 externally peer-reviewed. Over half of industry-funded or industry-linked academic articles failed to declare a conflict of interest (COI). Overall, of only six claims which drew on peer-reviewed and independent research, none appropriately represented the source.

DISCUSSION

UPFI respondents made far-reaching claims which were rarely supported by high-quality, independent evidence. This indicates that there may be few, if any, benefits from consulting actors with such a clear COI.

Developing more detailed taxonomies of tobacco industry political activity in low-income and middle-income countries: qualitative evidence from eight countries

INTRODUCTION

Historical evidence, predominantly from high-income countries (HICs), shows that the tobacco industry uses a recurring set of arguments and techniques when opposing tobacco control policies. This data formed the basis of a model of tobacco industry political activity known as the policy dystopia model (PDM). The PDM has been widely used in tobacco control research and advocacy and has subsequently been shown relevant to other unhealthy commodities industries in both HICs and low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Before it can be validated as a generic tool for researching corporate influence on policy, one needs to determine whether the PDM successfully captures contemporary corporate political activities in LMICs.

METHOD

We conducted semistructured interviews with 22 LMIC-based advocates and used the transcripts as the primary data source. The discursive and instrumental taxonomies constituting the PDM served as the starting point for the coding framework. Using thematic analysis, we combined deductive and inductive coding to ensure we captured all strategies from the PDM and the interviews.

RESULTS

This study found that the tobacco industry uses a set of discursive and instrumental strategies that is largely consistent across LMICs and with the PDM. We identified several minor contextual nuances absent from the PDM. Some of these nuances were characteristic to individual countries, while others to LMICs more broadly. They included the argument that tobacco control policies unfairly punish reputable tobacco industry actors, and an emphasis on instrumental strategies centred around maintaining a good image, rather than rehabilitating a tarnished image as emphasised in the PDM.

CONCLUSIONS

Allowing for the nuances identified in this study, the PDM has been found to be fit for purpose. The revised model should now be tested through in-depth LMIC case studies and could be used to facilitate comparative studies of unhealthy commodity industries' political activities.

Implementation of Cigarette Plain Packaging: Triadic Reactions of Consumers, State Officials, and Tobacco Companies-The Case of Saudi Arabia

OBJECTIVES

In August 2019, Saudi Arabia started implementing plain packaging for cigarettes. Three months later, an opposing campaign on twitter using an Arabic hashtag "the new smoke" gained momentum amongst smokers. The purpose of this study is to document this opposing campaign's timeline and describe consumers, government, and tobacco industry rhetoric.

METHODS

We created a timeline of the campaign events then performed online social listening of Arabic twitter hashtags related to the campaign.

RESULTS

Campaigners mainly complained of an unfavorable new taste in cigarette packs with plain packaging. The messaging developed to accusations to government entities and neighboring countries, and then after threats to boycott tobacco companies. The campaign received a significant amount of media coverage and elicited an official response from a number of Saudi government bodies, such as the Saudi Food and Drug Authority and Ministry of Commerce and Investment.

CONCLUSION

This case points at a need for risk communication training, possible tobacco industry manipulation, and a need to gain consumer trust with evidence-based messaging techniques. The case of cigarette plain packaging adoption in Saudi Arabia serves as an example to other countries of potential consumer interaction, tobacco industry interference, and state official counter-reactions.

Standardised packaging, minimum excise tax, and RYO focussed tax rise implications for UK tobacco pricing

BACKGROUND

Standardised packaging for factory made (FM) and roll your own (RYO) tobacco was fully implemented in the UK in May 2017. Around the same time, several changes to the tax system were applied (a Minimum Excise Tax (MET) for FM products and tax increases weighted towards RYO products). The tobacco industry claims that standardised packaging will lower prices (a disincentive for quitting) by commoditising the product, yet had itself taken advantage of the previous tax regime to achieve large profits from premium brands while also keeping some products' prices relatively low. Here we evaluate the impact of standardised packaging, the MET and the RYO focussed tax changes on price and industry profitability.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Nielsen electronic point of sale (EPOS) data (May 2015 to April 2018) were used to calculate real (inflation adjusted) monthly price per stick overall, by cigarette type (FM and RYO) and by seven market segments. Trend estimation, using additive mixed models, assessed weighted average price (weighted by volume of sales) and tobacco industry net revenue changes. The beginning and end of the data series were compared in terms of: (a) average monthly price growth, (b) average monthly net revenue growth, and (c) undershifting and overshifting patterns after tax changes. FM and RYO real prices changed little over the 3-year period-overall prices rose by about 1p per stick. There was no evidence of commoditisation with prices of all FM segments (but not RYO) rising faster after the implementation of standardised packaging than immediately beforehand. The prices of the cheapest FM brands rose with the implementation of the MET. RYO price increases did not close the gap to FM pricing levels despite RYO focussed tax increases. Tax changes following the implementation of standardised packaging and the MET were more widely and quickly passed on to smokers in the form of higher prices than the tax change pre-implementation. The main limitations are first that because we do not know the exact mechanism by which Nielsen scales up sample data to provide UK estimates, we could only use data for a set three year period during which the same adjustments are made. Second, the tax and standardised packaging events were sometimes too close in time to separate their consequences statistically. Third, tobacco prices may also be affected by external factors such as changes in smokers' disposable income or availability of electronic nicotine delivery systems.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no long-term lowering of tobacco prices after the implementation of standardised packaging as predicted by the industry. The introduction of the MET was successful in increasing the price of the cheapest FM cigarettes and narrowing the price gap between FM brands. The RYO tax increases were, however, insufficient to narrow the price gap between RYO and FM. Overall, undershifting became less extensive indicating that tobacco industry manipulation of the tax system which had previously kept cheap products available had declined. This suggests that standardised packaging and a MET will likely contribute to further declines in UK tobacco use.

Recommendations on how to achieve tobacco-free nations in Europe

European countries vary widely in the development and implementation of effective tobacco-control programs and policies. Why some countries lag behind others is inherently a political matter. National-level policymakers struggle between the need to protect public health and the need to recognize economic and ideological considerations. Within this context, use of scientific evidence plays an important role in the policy making process. Articles 20 and 22 of the World Health Organisation's Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) oblige countries to develop and coordinate research on aspects of tobacco control and require of them to facilitate knowledge transfer and capacity building between countries. This paper considers various ways how EU and national policy makers may accomplish this. We conclude that progress in three areas is needed: 1) generation of more scientific evidence relevant for each country; 2) facilitation of policy learning between countries; and 3) building capacity and collaborations between researchers and tobacco-control advocates to bridge the gap from research to policy, especially in countries with weak tobacco-control infrastructures.

Using Neuroscience to Inform Tobacco Control Policy

INTRODUCTION

Techniques employed in the field of neuroscience, such as eye tracking, electroencephalography, and functional magnetic resonance imaging, have been important in informing our understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying tobacco smoking. These techniques are now increasingly being used to investigate the likely impact of tobacco control policies.

AIMS AND METHODS

In this narrative review, we outline the value of these methodological approaches in answering policy-relevant tobacco control research questions, with a particular focus on their use in examining the impact of standardized cigarette packaging and health warnings. We also examine the limitations of these methodologies and provide examples of how they can be used to answer other policy-relevant questions.

RESULTS

We argue that neuroscience techniques can provide more objective evidence of the impacts of policy measures, allow investigation where it is not possible to conduct behavioral manipulations, and facilitate a deeper understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying the impacts of tobacco control policies such as standardized packaging, health warnings, point-of-sale displays, and mass media campaigns.

CONCLUSIONS

Rather than replacing more traditional methods of examining tobacco control measures, such as observational experiments, surveys, and questionnaires, neuroscience techniques can complement and extend these methods.

IMPLICATIONS

Neuroscience techniques facilitate objective examination of the mechanisms underlying the impacts of tobacco control measures. These techniques can therefore complement and extend other methodologies typically used in this field, such as observational experiments, surveys, and questionnaires.

Containing diffusion: the tobacco industry's multipronged trade strategy to block tobacco standardised packaging

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the tobacco industry's strategy of using trade and investment agreements to prevent the global diffusion of standardised packaging (SP) of tobacco products.

METHODS

Review of tobacco industry documents, relevant government documents and media items. The data were triangulated and thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Internal tobacco industry documents reveal that during the early 1990s, tobacco companies developed a multipronged trade strategy to prevent the global diffusion of progressive tobacco packaging and labelling proposals, including SP. This strategy consisted of (1) framing the health issue in terms of trade and investment, (2) detailing alleged legal violations concerning trade barriers, intellectual property and investment rights, (3) threatening legal suits and reputational damage, and (4) garnering third-party support. These efforts helped delay SP until 2010 when Australia became the first country to reintroduce SP proposals, followed by governments in the UK and New Zealand in 2012, Ireland in 2013 and France in 2014. Review of government documents and media sources in each of the five countries indicate the industry continues to employ this multipronged strategy throughout the SP policy's progression. Although this strategy is tailored towards each domestic context, the overall tobacco industry's trade strategy remains consistently focused on shifting the attention away from public health and towards the realm of trade and investment with more corporate-friendly allies.

CONCLUSION

Governments seeking to implement SP need to be prepared to resist and counter the industry's multipronged trade strategy by avoiding trade diversions, exposing false industry legal and reputational claims, and monitoring third-party support.

Tweeting about public health policy: Social media response to the UK Government's announcement of a Parliamentary vote on draft standardised packaging regulations

BACKGROUND

Standardised tobacco packaging has been, and remains, a contentious policy globally, attracting corporate, public health, political, media and popular attention. In January 2015, the UK Government announced it would vote on draft regulations for the policy before the May 2015 General Election. We explored reactions to the announcement on Twitter, in comparison with an earlier period of little UK Government activity on standardised packaging.

METHODS

We obtained a random sample of 1038 tweets in two 4-week periods, before and after the UK Government's announcement. Content analysis was used to examine the following Tweet characteristics: support for the policy, purpose, Twitter-user's geographical location and affiliation, and evidence citation and quality. Chi-squared analyses were used to compare Tweet characteristics between the two periods.

RESULTS

Overall, significantly more sampled Tweets were in favour of the policy (49%) in comparison to those opposed (19%). Yet, at Time 2, following the announcement, a greater proportion of sampled tweets opposed standardised packaging compared to the period sampled at Time 1, prior to the announcement (p<0.001). The quality of evidence and research cited in URLs linked at Time 2 was significantly lower than at Time 1 (p<0.001), with peer-reviewed research more likely to be shared in positive Tweets (p<0.001) and in Tweets linking to URLs originating from the health sector (p<0.001). The decline in the proportion of positive Tweets was mirrored by a reduction in Tweets by health sector Twitter-users at Time 2 (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Microblogging sites can reflect offline policy debates and are used differently by policy proponents and opponents dependent on the policy context. Twitter-users opposed to standardised packaging increased their activity following the Government's announcement, while those in support broadly maintained their rate of Twitter engagement. The findings offer insight into the public health community's options for using Twitter to influence policy and disseminate research. In particular, proliferation of Twitter activity following pro-public health policy announcements could be considered to ensure pro-health messages are not overshadowed by anti-regulation voices.

'Both Sides of the Argument'? A critical review of existing evidence on the illicit trade in tobacco products in Canada

INTRODUCTION

The illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) is widely recognised as a substantial and complex problem in Canada. However, the independence of available data and quality of analyses remains unknown. Reliable and accurate data on the scale and causes of the problem are needed to inform effective policy responses.

METHODS

We searched the scholarly and grey literature using keywords related to ITTP in Canada. We identified 26 studies published in English since 2008 that present original research drawing on primary data. We analysed these studies for their independence from the tobacco industry, methodology, findings and gaps in knowledge.

RESULTS

The study finds 42% of the literature reviewed has links to the tobacco industry. These studies provide insufficient methodological detail, present higher estimates of the volume of ITTP and attribute the causes to higher rates of tobacco taxation. The classification of all indigenous tobacco sales as illicit, by both industry linked and independent studies, contributes to overestimates and serves the interests of transnational tobacco companies. There is need for independent and comprehensive data on the ITTP in Canada over time, across population groups and geographies.

CONCLUSION

While there is evidence that the ITTP in Canada is a major and complex issue that requires effective tobacco control policies, there is a limited evidence base on which to develop such responses. This review finds industry-linked studies lack independence, employ biased methodologies and serve tobacco industry interests. Independent studies present more rigorous approaches, but primarily focus on youth and the province of Ontario.

The tobacco industry's challenges to standardised packaging: A comparative analysis of issue framing in public relations campaigns in four countries

Tobacco industry public relations campaigns have played a key role in challenges to standardised cigarette packaging. This paper presents a comparative analysis of industry campaigns in Australia and the United Kingdom, which have implemented standardised packaging legislation; Canada, where policy has been adopted but not yet implemented; and the Netherlands, which has considered, but not enacted regulation. Campaigns were identified via Google searches, tobacco industry websites, media coverage, government submissions and previous research; analysis focused on issue framing and supporting evidence. Public relations campaigns in all case study countries drew on similar frames - the illicit trade in tobacco products, the encroaching 'nanny state', lack of evidence for the effectiveness of standardised packaging, a slippery slope of regulation, and inherent threats to intellectual property rights. These claims were supported by industry research, front groups and commissioned reports by accountancy firms, but were not with verifiable research. Independent evidence that contradicted industry positions was overlooked. Similarities in structure and content of public relations campaigns in countries that have enacted or considered regulation points to a strategic co-ordinated approach by cigarette manufacturers. Countries considering standardised packaging policy can expect powerful opposition from the tobacco industry. Tobacco control communities and policy makers can learn from previous experience, and share best practise in countering industry arguments.

Can't see the woods for the trees: exploring the range and connection of tobacco industry argumentation in the 2012 UK standardised packaging consultation

INTRODUCTION

Transnational tobacco company (TTC) submissions to the 2012 UK standardised packaging consultation are studied to examine TTC argumentation in the context of Better Regulation practices.

METHODS

A content analysis was conducted of Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco submissions to the 2012 UK consultation. Industry arguments concerning expected costs and (contested) benefits of the policy were categorised into themes and frames. The inter-relationship between frames through linked arguments was mapped to analyse central arguments using an argumentation network.

RESULTS

173 arguments were identified. Arguments fell into one of five frames: ineffectiveness, negative economic consequences, harm to public health, increased crime or legal ramifications. Arguments highlighted high costs to a wide range of groups, including government, general public and other businesses. Arguments also questioned the public health benefits of standardised packaging and highlighted the potential benefits to undeserving groups. An increase in illicit trade was the most central argument and linked to the greatest variety of arguments.

CONCLUSIONS

In policy-making systems characterised by mandatory impact assessments and public consultations, the wide range of cost (and contested benefits) based arguments highlights the risk of TTCs overloading policy actors and causing delays in policy adoption. Illicit trade related arguments are central to providing a rationale for these arguments, which include the claim that standardised packaging will increase health risks. The strategic importance of illicit trade arguments to industry argumentation in public consultations underlines the risks of relying on industry data relating to the scale of the illicit trade.

Industry interests in gambling research: Lessons learned from other forms of hazardous consumption

Research indicates that the evidential bases for many harm reduction policies targeting hazardous consumptions (including tobacco, alcohol and gambling) have been distorted by commercial industries that derive revenue from such commodities. These distortions are best illustrated by research on tobacco and alcohol, which indicates similar tactics used by industries to determine favourable policy environments through engineering of evidence, among other approaches. Although there is concern that gambling research is similarly vulnerable to commercial interests, the relevant literature lags far behind other fields and the aim of this paper is to increase familiarity with tactics used by industries for influencing research. It summarises the conceptual and empirical bases for expecting conflicts between goals of public health and companies that profit from hazardous consumptions. It also summarises evidence describing practices deployed by tobacco corporations, which include third-party techniques and the selective funding of research to manufacture doubt and deflect attention away from the consequences of smoking. It then reviews both early and emerging evidence indicating similar strategies used by alcohol industry, and uses this literature to view practices of the gambling industry. It argues that parallels regarding selective funding of research and third-party techniques provide grounds for strong concern about commercial influences on gambling research, and implementation of precautionary approaches to management of vested interests.

Evidentiary Support in Public Comments to the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products

Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) were introduced into the US market in 2007, and until recently these devices were unregulated at the federal level. In 2014, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking asserting its intention to regulate ENDS and requesting public comments on numerous related issues, including potential limits on the sale of flavored ENDS. This article analyzes key comments submitted to the FDA on the issue of flavor regulation in ENDS and examines the weight and credibility of the evidence presented by both supporters and opponents of regulation. It also describes the final deeming rule, published in May 2016, and the FDA's response to the evidence submitted. This is the first study to examine public comments submitted to the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, and it concludes that opponents of regulation were more likely to rely on sources that were not peer reviewed and that were affected by conflicts of interest. In light of these findings, the FDA and the research community should develop processes to carefully and critically analyze public comments submitted to the FDA on issues of tobacco regulation.

Controlling corporate influence in health policy making? An assessment of the implementation of article 5.3 of the World Health Organization framework convention on tobacco control

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) stands to significantly reduce tobacco-related mortality by accelerating the introduction of evidence-based tobacco control measures. However, the extent to which States Parties have implemented the Convention varies considerably. Article 5.3 of the FCTC, is intended to insulate policy-making from the tobacco industry's political influence, and aims to address barriers to strong implementation of the Convention associated with tobacco industry political activity. This paper quantitatively assesses implementation of Article 5.3's Guidelines for Implementation, evaluates the strength of Parties' efforts to implement specific recommendations, and explores how different approaches to implementation expose the policy process to continuing industry influence.

METHODS

We cross-referenced a broad range of documentary data (including FCTC Party reports and World Bank data on the governance of conflicts of interest in public administration) against Article 5.3 implementation guidelines (n = 24) for 155 Parties, and performed an in-depth thematic analysis to examine the strength of implementation for specific recommendations.

RESULTS

Across all Parties, 16% of guideline recommendations reviewed have been implemented. Eighty-three percent of Parties that have taken some action under Article 5.3 have introduced less than a third of the guidelines. Most compliance with the guidelines is achieved through pre-existing policy instruments introduced independently of the FCTC, which rarely cover all relevant policy actors and fall short of the guideline recommendations. Measures introduced in response to the FCTC are typically restricted to health ministries and not explicit about third parties acting on behalf of the industry. Parties systematically overlook recommendations that facilitate industry monitoring.

CONCLUSION

Highly selective and incomplete implementation of specific guideline recommendations facilitates extensive ongoing opportunities for industry policy influence. Stronger commitment to implementation is required to ensure consistently strong compliance with the FCTC internationally.

Standardised tobacco packaging: a health policy case study of corporate conflict expansion and adaptation

OBJECTIVES

To investigate opposition to standardised tobacco packaging in the UK. To increase understanding of how transnational corporations are adapting to changes in their access to policymakers precipitated by Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC).

DESIGN

Case study web-based documentary analysis, using NVivo V.10. Examination of relationships between opponents of standardised packaging and transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) and of the volume, nature, transparency and timing of their activities.

SETTING

UK standardised packaging policy debate 2011-2013.

PARTICIPANTS

Organisations selected on basis of opposition to, or facilitation thereof, standardised tobacco packaging in the UK; 422 associated documents.

RESULTS

Excluding tobacco manufacturing and packaging companies (n=12), 109 organisations were involved in opposing standardised packaging, 82 (75%) of which had a financial relationship with 1 or more TTC. These 82 organisations (43 actively opposing the measure, 39 facilitating opposition) were responsible for 60% of the 404 activities identified, including the majority of public communications and research production. TTCs were directly responsible for 28% of total activities, predominantly direct lobbying, but also financially underwrote third party research, communication, mass recruitment and lobbying. Active organisations rarely reported any financial relationship with TTCs when undertaking opposition activities.

CONCLUSIONS

The multifaceted opposition to standardised packaging was primarily undertaken by third parties with financial relationships with major tobacco manufacturers. Low levels of transparency regarding these links created a misleading impression of diverse and widespread opposition. Countries should strengthen implementation of Article 5.3 of the FCTC by systematically requiring conflict of interest declarations from all organisations participating in political or media debates on tobacco control.

Analysis of the logic and framing of a tobacco industry campaign opposing standardised packaging legislation in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

The tobacco industry routinely opposes tobacco control policies, often using a standard repertoire of arguments. Following proposals to introduce standardised packaging in New Zealand (NZ), British American Tobacco New Zealand (BATNZ) launched the 'Agree-Disagree' mass media campaign, which coincided with the NZ government's standardised packaging consultations. This study examined the logic of the arguments presented and rhetorical strategies employed in the campaign.

METHODS

We analysed each advertisement to identify key messages, arguments and rhetorical devices, then examined the arguments' structure and assessed their logical soundness and validity.

RESULTS

All advertisements attempted to frame BATNZ as reasonable, and each contained flawed arguments that were either unsound or based on logical fallacies. Flawed arguments included misrepresenting the intent of the proposed legislation (straw man), claiming standardised packaging would harm all NZ brands (false dilemma), warning NZ not to adopt standardised packaging because of its Australian origins (an unsound argument) or using vague premises as a basis for claiming negative outcomes (equivocation).

CONCLUSIONS

BATNZ's Agree-Disagree campaign relied on unsound arguments, logical fallacies and rhetorical devices. Given the industry's frequent recourse to these tactics, we propose strategies based on our study findings that can be used to assist the tobacco control community to counter industry opposition to standardised packaging. Greater recognition of logical fallacies and rhetorical devices employed by the tobacco industry will help maintain focus on the health benefits proposed policies will deliver.

Rhetoric and the law, or the law of rhetoric: How countries oppose novel tobacco control measures at the World Trade Organization

The tobacco industry has developed an extensive array of strategies and arguments to prevent or weaken government regulation. These strategies and arguments are well documented at the domestic level. However, there remains a need to examine how these arguments are reflected in the challenges waged by governments within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Decisions made at the WTO have the potential to shape how countries govern. Our analysis was conducted on two novel tobacco control measures: tobacco additives bans (Canada, United States and Brazil) and plain, standardized packaging of tobacco products (Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, EU and UK). We analyzed WTO documents (i.e. meeting minutes and submissions) (n = 62) in order to identify patterns of argumentation and compare these patterns with well-documented industry arguments. The pattern of these arguments reveal that despite the unique institutional structure of the WTO, country representatives opposing novel tobacco control measures use the same non-technical arguments as those that the tobacco industry continues to use to oppose these measures at the domestic level.

The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity

BACKGROUND

Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

The revision of the 2014 European tobacco products directive: an analysis of the tobacco industry's attempts to 'break the health silo'

BACKGROUND

The 2014 European Union (EU) Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) was negotiated in a changed policy context, following adoption of the EU's 'Smart Regulation' agenda, which transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) anticipated would increase their influence on health policy, and the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), which sought to reduce it. This study aims to explore the scale and nature of the TTCs' lobby against the EU TPD and evaluate how these developments have affected their ability to exert influence.

METHODS

Analysis of 581 documents obtained through freedom of information requests, 28 leaked Philip Morris International (PMI) documents, 17 TTC documents from the Legacy Library, web content via Google alerts and searches of the EU institutions' websites, plus four stakeholder interviews.

RESULTS

The lobby was massive. PMI alone employed over 160 lobbyists. Strategies mainly used third parties. Efforts to 'Push' (amend) or 'Delay' the proposal and block 'extreme policy options' were partially successful, with plain packaging and point of sales display ban removed during the 3-year delay in the Commission. The Smart Regulation mechanism contributed to changes and delays, facilitating meetings between TTC representatives (including ex-Commission employees) and senior Commission staff. Contrary to Article 5.3, these meetings were not disclosed.

CONCLUSIONS

During the legislative process, Article 5.3 was not consistently applied by non-health Directorates of the European Commission, while the tools of the Smart Regulation appear to have facilitated TTC access to, and influence on, the 2014 TPD. The use of third parties undermines Article 5.3.

How does the alcohol industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

AIM

To systematically review, using a qualitative, narrative synthesis approach, papers examining alcohol industry efforts to influence alcohol marketing policy, and compare with those used by the tobacco industry.

METHODS

Literature searches were conducted between April and July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Papers were included if they: made reference to alcohol industry efforts to influence (a) policy debates concerning marketing regulations, (b) new specific marketing policies or (c) broad alcohol policy which included marketing regulations; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. Alcohol industry political activity was categorized into strategies/tactics and frames/arguments. Data extraction was undertaken by the lead author and 100% of the papers were fully second-reviewed. Seventeen papers met the review criteria.

RESULTS

Five main political strategies and five main frames were identified. The alcohol industry argues against marketing regulation by emphasizing industry responsibility and the effectiveness of self-regulation, questioning the effectiveness of statutory regulation and by focusing on individual responsibility. Arguments relating to industry responsibility are often reinforced through corporate social responsibility activities. The industry primarily conveys its arguments through manipulating the evidence base and by promoting ineffective voluntary codes and non-regulatory initiatives.

CONCLUSIONS

The alcohol industry's political activity is more varied than existing models of corporate political activity suggest. The industry's opposition to marketing regulation centres on claims that the industry is responsible and that self regulation is effective. There are considerable commonalities between tobacco and alcohol industry political activity, with differences due potentially to differences in policy contexts and perceived industry legitimacy.

Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation

The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger’s Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss’ Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts’ opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0.087 and 0.083, respectively). Scholars in technology design, foresight research and future(s) studies might consider these new findings in strategic planning of Delphi studies, for example, in rational choice of consensus indices and sample size, or accounting for confounding factors such as experts’ variable degrees of conformity (stubbornness/flexibility) in modifying their opinions.

'It will harm business and increase illicit trade': an evaluation of the relevance, quality and transparency of evidence submitted by transnational tobacco companies to the UK consultation on standardised packaging 2012

INTRODUCTION

Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) submitted evidence to the 2012 UK Consultation on standardised packaging (SP) to argue the policy will have detrimental economic impacts and increase illicit tobacco trade.

METHODS

A content analysis of the four TTC submissions to the consultation assessed the relevance and quality of evidence TTCs cited to support their arguments. Investigative research was used to determine whether the cited evidence was industry connected. Fisher's exact tests were used to compare the relevance and quality of industry-connected and independent from the industry evidence. The extent to which TTCs disclosed financial conflicts of interest (COI) when citing evidence was examined.

RESULTS

We obtained 74 pieces of TTC-cited evidence. The quality of the evidence was poor. TTCs cited no independent, peer-reviewed evidence that supported their arguments. Nearly half of the evidence was industry-connected (47%, 35/74). None of this industry-connected evidence was published in peer-reviewed journals (0/35) and 66% (23/35) of it was opinion only. Industry-connected evidence was of significantly poorer quality than independent evidence (p<0.001). COIs were not disclosed by TTCs in 91% (32/35) of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of peer-reviewed research to support their arguments, TTCs relied on evidence they commissioned and the opinions of TTC-connected third-parties. Such connections were not disclosed by TTCs when citing this evidence and were time consuming to uncover. In line with Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and broader transparency initiatives, TTCs should be required to disclose their funding of all third-parties and any COIs when citing evidence.

Exposing and addressing tobacco industry conduct in low-income and middle-income countries

The tobacco industry's future depends on increasing tobacco use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), which face a growing burden of tobacco-related disease, yet have potential to prevent full-scale escalation of this epidemic. To drive up sales the industry markets its products heavily, deliberately targeting non-smokers and keeps prices low until smoking and local economies are sufficiently established to drive prices and profits up. The industry systematically flaunts existing tobacco control legislation and works aggressively to prevent future policies using its resource advantage to present highly misleading economic arguments, rebrand political activities as corporate social responsibility, and establish and use third parties to make its arguments more palatable. Increasingly it is using domestic litigation and international arbitration to bully LMICs from implementing effective policies and hijacking the problem of tobacco smuggling for policy gain, attempting to put itself in control of an illegal trade in which there is overwhelming historical evidence of its complicity. Progress will not be realised until tobacco industry interference is actively addressed as outlined in Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Exemplar LMICs show this action can be achieved and indicate that exposing tobacco industry misconduct is an essential first step.

Representation and misrepresentation of scientific evidence in contemporary tobacco regulation: a review of tobacco industry submissions to the UK Government consultation on standardised packaging

BACKGROUND

Standardised packaging (SP) of tobacco products is an innovative tobacco control measure opposed by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) whose responses to the UK government's public consultation on SP argued that evidence was inadequate to support implementing the measure. The government's initial decision, announced 11 months after the consultation closed, was to wait for 'more evidence', but four months later a second 'independent review' was launched. In view of the centrality of evidence to debates over SP and TTCs' history of denying harms and manufacturing uncertainty about scientific evidence, we analysed their submissions to examine how they used evidence to oppose SP.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We purposively selected and analysed two TTC submissions using a verification-oriented cross-documentary method to ascertain how published studies were used and interpretive analysis with a constructivist grounded theory approach to examine the conceptual significance of TTC critiques. The companies' overall argument was that the SP evidence base was seriously flawed and did not warrant the introduction of SP. However, this argument was underpinned by three complementary techniques that misrepresented the evidence base. First, published studies were repeatedly misquoted, distorting the main messages. Second, 'mimicked scientific critique' was used to undermine evidence; this form of critique insisted on methodological perfection, rejected methodological pluralism, adopted a litigation (not scientific) model, and was not rigorous. Third, TTCs engaged in 'evidential landscaping', promoting a parallel evidence base to deflect attention from SP and excluding company-held evidence relevant to SP. The study's sample was limited to sub-sections of two out of four submissions, but leaked industry documents suggest at least one other company used a similar approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The TTCs' claim that SP will not lead to public health benefits is largely without foundation. The tools of Better Regulation, particularly stakeholder consultation, provide an opportunity for highly resourced corporations to slow, weaken, or prevent public health policies.