Long-term financing needs for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015-2050: a modelling study

Exploration for the Priority of HIV Intervention: Modelling Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness - Six Cities, Eastern China, 2019-2028

Introduction

In order to enhance the effectiveness of resource allocation, regions must tailor their responses to their specific epidemiological and economic situations.

Methods

Utilizing Spectrum software, we projected the cost-effectiveness of 10 chosen HIV interventions in six cities in eastern China from 2019 to 2028. We assessed three scenarios - Base, Achievable, and Idealized - for each city. The analysis included the projected number of HIV infections and deaths averted, as well as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for each intervention in the six cities.

Results

In Shijiazhuang, Wuxi, Yantai, and Zhenjiang, cities with initially low antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, ART showed significant effectiveness, especially for males. Conversely, in Foshan and Ningbo, where ART coverage was notably high, oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for men who have sex with men (MSM) proved effective in the Idealized scenario. MSM outreach, ART for males, and ART for females demonstrated cost-effectiveness across all six cities in both Achievable and Idealized scenarios at the predefined thresholds for each city.

Discussion

Maintaining an appropriate coverage rate for outreach to MSM can lead to cost-effectiveness. In cities with low ART coverage, scaling up ART remains a crucial intervention. In regions with high ART coverage, consideration may be given to the utilization of oral PrEP for MSM individuals, requiring budget allocation.

The emergence and circulation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype C

Introduction. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype C is the most prevalent globally and is thought to have originated in non-human primates in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Hypothesis/Gap Statement. Although the global dominance of HIV-1 subtype C is well established, a thorough understanding of its evolutionary history and transmission dynamics across various risk populations remains elusive. The current knowledge is insufficient to fully capture the global diversification and dissemination of this subtype.Aim. We for the first time sought to investigate the global evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C using a selection of maximum-likelihood-based phylodynamic approaches on a total of 1210 near full-length genomic sequences sampled from 32 countries, collected in 4 continents, with sampling dates between 1986-2019 among various risk groups were analysed.Methodology. We subsampled the HIV-1 subtype C genomic datasets based on continent and risk group traits, and performed nucleotide substitution model selection analysis, maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic reconstruction, phylogenetic tree topology similarity analysis, temporal signal analysis and traced the timings of viral spread both geographically and by risk group.Results. Based on the phylodynamic analyses of four datasets (full1210, locrisk626, loc562 and risk393), we inferred the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) in the 1930s and an evolutionary rate of 0.0023 substitutions per site per year. The total number of introduction events of HIV-1 subtype C between continents and between risk groups is estimated to be 71 and 115, respectively. The largest number of introductions occurred from Africa to Europe (n=32), from not-recorded to heterosexual (n=40) and from heterosexual to not-recorded (n=51) risk groups.Conclusion. Our results emphasize that HIV subtype C has mainly spread from Africa to Europe, likely through heterosexual transmission.

Human immunodeficiency virus care and management in incarcerated populations in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2010 and 2022: A narrative review

BACKGROUND

Different countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have established guidelines to reduce HIV transmission and improve its management in prisons. This narrative review aimed to examine established literature on HIV care and management among incarcerated persons in SSA to identify successful interventions that could inform improved guidelines, policies, and practices related to the clinical care of this population.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and TRIP Medical Databases in August 2022 for articles published between 1st January 2010 and 30th June 2022. We identified 27 eligible articles based on the Population/Concept/Context framework.

RESULTS

HIV screening primarily involved mass campaigns rather than formal prison programmes, with limited implementation of universal testing and treatment. Although a few studies reported on access to antiretrovirals (ARVs), prisoners in urban areas and females had disproportionate access. Barriers identified include poor living conditions, high levels of stigma, and resource constraints. Inter-prison transfers, release from prison, and lack of established programmes hindered follow-up and linkage to care.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of strategies such as universal testing and treatment, human resource strengthening, financing plans for testing, ARV care, and frequent assessment of risk could improve HIV care and management in prisons in SSA.

Individual and healthcare supply-related HIV transmission factors in HIV-positive patients enrolled in the antiretroviral treatment access program in the Centre and Littoral regions in Cameroon (ANRS-12288 EVOLCam survey)

Background

Despite great progress in antiretroviral treatment (ART) access in recent decades, HIV incidence remains high in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the role of individual and healthcare supply-related factors in HIV transmission risk in HIV-positive adults enrolled in 19 HIV services in the Centre and Littoral regions of Cameroon.

Methods

Factors associated with HIV transmission risk (defined as both unstable aviremia and inconsistent condom use with HIV-negative or unknown status partners) were identified using a multi-level logistic regression model. Besides socio-demographic and behavioral individual variables, the following four HIV-service profiles, identified using cluster analysis, were used in regression analyses as healthcare supply-related variables: 1) district services with large numbers of patients, almost all practicing task-shifting and not experiencing antiretroviral drugs (ARV) stock-outs (n = 4); 2) experienced and well-equipped national reference services, most practicing task-shifting and not experiencing ARV stock-outs (n = 5); 3) small district services with limited resources and activities, almost all experiencing ARV stock-outs (n = 6); 4) small district services with a wide range of activities and half not experiencing ARV stock-outs (n = 4).

Results

Of the 1372 patients (women 67%, median age [Interquartile]: 39 [33–44] years) reporting sexual activity in the previous 12 months, 39% [min-max across HIV services: 25%-63%] were at risk of transmitting HIV. The final model showed that being a woman (adjusted Odd Ratio [95% Confidence Interval], p-value: 2.13 [1.60–2.82], p<0.001), not having an economic activity (1.34 [1.05–1.72], p = 0.019), having at least two sexual partners (2.45 [1.83–3.29], p<0.001), reporting disease symptoms at HIV diagnosis (1.38 [1.08–1.75], p = 0.011), delayed ART initiation (1.32 [1.02–1.71], p = 0.034) and not being ART treated (2.28 [1.48–3.49], p<0.001) were all associated with HIV transmission risk. Conversely, longer time since HIV diagnosis was associated with a lower risk of transmitting HIV (0.96 [0.92–0.99] per one-year increase, p = 0.024). Patients followed in the third profile had a higher risk of transmitting HIV (1.71 [1.05–2.79], p = 0.031) than those in the first profile.

Conclusions

Healthcare supply constraints, including limited resources and ARV supply chain deficiency may impact HIV transmission risk. To reduce HIV incidence, HIV services need adequate resources to relieve healthcare supply-related barriers and provide suitable support activities throughout the continuum of care.

Integrating HIV services and other health services: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Integration of HIV services with other health services has been proposed as an important strategy to boost the sustainability of the global HIV response. We conducted a systematic and comprehensive synthesis of the existing scientific evidence on the impact of service integration on the HIV care cascade, health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We reviewed the global quantitative empirical evidence on integration published between 1 January 2010 and 10 September 2021. We included experimental and observational studies that featured both an integration intervention and a comparator in our review. Of the 7,118 unique peer-reviewed English-language studies that our search algorithm identified, 114 met all of our selection criteria for data extraction. Most of the studies (90) were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in East Africa (55) and Southern Africa (24). The most common forms of integration were (i) HIV testing and counselling added to non-HIV services and (ii) non-HIV services added to antiretroviral therapy (ART). The most commonly integrated non-HIV services were maternal and child healthcare, tuberculosis testing and treatment, primary healthcare, family planning, and sexual and reproductive health services. Values for HIV care cascade outcomes tended to be better in integrated services: uptake of HIV testing and counselling (pooled risk ratio [RR] across 37 studies: 1.67 [95% CI 1.41-1.99], p < 0.001), ART initiation coverage (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.42 [95% CI 1.16-1.75], p = 0.002), time until ART initiation (pooled RR across 5 studies: 0.45 [95% CI 0.20-1.00], p = 0.050), retention in HIV care (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.68 [95% CI 1.05-2.69], p = 0.031), and viral suppression (pooled RR across 9 studies: 1.19 [95% CI 1.03-1.37], p = 0.025). Also, treatment success for non-HIV-related diseases and conditions and the uptake of non-HIV services were commonly higher in integrated services. We did not find any significant differences for the following outcomes in our meta-analyses: HIV testing yield, ART adherence, HIV-free survival among infants, and HIV and non-HIV mortality. We could not conduct meta-analyses for several outcomes (HIV infections averted, costs, and cost-effectiveness), because our systematic review did not identify sufficient poolable studies. Study limitations included possible publication bias of studies with significant or favourable findings and comparatively weak evidence from some world regions and on integration of services for key populations in the HIV response.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of HIV services and other health services tends to improve health and health systems outcomes. Despite some scientific limitations, the global evidence shows that service integration can be a valuable strategy to boost the sustainability of the HIV response and contribute to the goal of 'ending AIDS by 2030', while simultaneously supporting progress towards universal health coverage.

Individual and healthcare supply-related barriers to treatment initiation in HIV-positive patients enrolled in the Cameroonian antiretroviral treatment access programme

Increasing demand for antiretroviral treatment (ART) together with a reduction in international funding during the last decade may jeopardize access to ART. Using data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2014 in 19 HIV services in the Centre and Littoral regions in Cameroon, we investigated the role of healthcare supply-related factors in time to ART initiation in HIV-positive patients eligible for ART at HIV diagnosis. HIV service profiles were built using cluster analysis. Factors associated with time to ART initiation were identified using a multilevel Cox model. The study population included 847 HIV-positive patients (women 72%, median age: 39 years). Median (interquartile range) time to ART initiation was 1.6 (0.5-4.3) months. Four HIV service profiles were identified: (1) small services with a limited staff practising partial task-shifting (n = 4); (2) experienced and well-equipped services practising task-shifting and involving HIV community-based organizations (n = 5); (3) small services with limited resources and activities (n = 6); (4) small services providing a large range of activities using task-shifting and involving HIV community-based organizations (n = 4). The multivariable model showed that HIV-positive patients over 39 years old [hazard ratio: 1.26 (95% confidence interval) (1.09-1.45), P = 0.002], those with disease symptoms [1.21 (1.04-1.41), P = 0.015] and those with hepatitis B co-infection [2.31 (1.15-4.66), P = 0.019] were all more likely to initiate ART early. However, patients in the first profile were less likely to initiate ART early [0.80 (0.65-0.99), P = 0.049] than those in the second profile, as were patients in the third profile [association only significant at the 10% level; 0.86 (0.72-1.02), P = 0.090]. Our findings provide a better understanding of the role played by healthcare supply-related factors in ART initiation. In HIV services with limited capacity, task-shifting and support from community-based organizations may improve treatment access. Additional funding is required to relieve healthcare supply-related barriers and achieve the goal of universal ART access.

Getting resources to those who need them: the evidence we need to budget for underserved populations in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, many countries have adopted evidence-based budgeting (EBB) to encourage the best use of limited and decreasing HIV resources. The lack of data and evidence for hard to reach, marginalized and vulnerable populations could cause EBB to further disadvantage those who are already underserved and who carry a disproportionate HIV burden (USDB). We outline the critical data required to use EBB to support USDB people in the context of the generalized epidemics of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DISCUSSION

To be considered in an EBB cycle, an intervention needs at a minimum to have an estimate of a) the average cost, typically per recipient of the intervention; b) the effectiveness of the intervention and c) the size of the intervention target population. The methods commonly used for general populations are not sufficient for generating valid estimates for USDB populations. USDB populations may require additional resources to learn about, access, and/or successfully participate in an intervention, increasing the cost per recipient. USDB populations may experience different health outcomes and/or other benefits than in general populations, influencing the effectiveness of the interventions. Finally, USDB population size estimation is critical for accurate programming but is difficult to obtain with almost no national estimates for countries in SSA. We explain these limitations and make recommendations for addressing them.

CONCLUSIONS

EBB is a strong tool to achieve efficient allocation of resources, but in SSA the evidence necessary for USDB populations may be lacking. Rather than excluding USDB populations from the budgeting process, more should be invested in understanding the needs of these populations.

Pandemics and Burden of Stroke and Epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from a Longstanding Health Programme

Eighty percent of people with stroke live in low- to middle-income nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where stroke has increased by more than 100% in the last decades. More than one-third of all epilepsy-related deaths occur in SSA. HIV infection is a risk factor for neurological disorders, including stroke and epilepsy. The vast majority of the 38 million people living with HIV/AIDS are in SSA, and the burden of neurological disorders in SSA parallels that of HIV/AIDS. Local healthcare systems are weak. Many standalone HIV health centres have become a platform with combined treatment for both HIV and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as advised by the United Nations. The COVID-19 pandemic is overwhelming the fragile health systems in SSA, and it is feared it will provoke an upsurge of excess deaths due to the disruption of care for chronic diseases such as HIV, TB, hypertension, diabetes, and cerebrovascular disorders. Disease Relief through Excellent and Advanced Means (DREAM) is a health programme active since 2002 to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS and related disorders in 10 SSA countries. DREAM is scaling up management of NCDs, including neurologic disorders such as stroke and epilepsy. We described challenges and solutions to address disruption and excess deaths from these diseases during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The efficacy of a lay health workers – led physical activity counselling program in patients with HIV and mental health problems: a real-world intervention from Uganda

ABSTRACTThis study explored the efficacy of a lay health worker (LHW)-led physical activity (PA) counselling program for inactive patients with HIV/AIDS and mental health problems living in a Ugandan farming community. In total 49 (35 women) community patients (40.0 ± 11.2 years) followed an 8-week once weekly LHW-led PA counselling program based on a self-determination theory and motivational interviewing framework. Participants completed the Simple Physical Activity Questionnaire, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, HIV/AIDS Stress Scale and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2 (WHODAS 2) pre- and immediately post-intervention. Small, significant (P < 0.05) effect sizes were found for reductions in HIV/AIDS-related stress (Cohen's d = 0.26) and in global disability (Cohen's d = 0.46). Large effect sizes were observed for reductions in time spent sedentary (Cohen's d = 1.97) and reductions in depressive (Cohen's d = 2.04) and anxiety (Cohen's d = 1.47) symptoms and increases in time spent active (Cohen's d = 1.98). Greater decrease in sedentary time was associated with greater anxiety symptoms reduction (r = 0.32, P = 0.021). In physically inactive patients with HIV/AIDS and mental health problems, an LHW-led PA counselling program reduced stress, anxiety, depression and disability. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm these preliminary positive findings.

Qualitative analysis of financing HIV and AIDS program in Health Office of Jayawijaya District, Papua Province

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to see the financing of HIV and AIDS prevention programs in Jayawijaya District, Papua Province.

METHOD

This study used a qualitative research design with a case study approach.

RESULTS

The results of this study indicate that the source of HIV and AIDS prevention programs in the Jayawijaya Health Office comes from the Government (Special Autonomy Fund) and the State Budget (BOK Funds at Puskesmas) and assistance from international NGOs with a very large amount every year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study concludes that HIV and AIDS from the APBN and APBN data should be reviewed to improve with the decreasing number of donor agencies assisting in the Jayawijaya District. So that the HIV and AIDS program in Jayawijaya Regency, Papua Province, is reliable, balanced with a comprehensive coping program strategy.

Assessing the costs and efficiency of HIV testing and treatment services in rural Malawi: implications for future "test and start" strategies

BACKGROUND

Reaching the 90-90-90 targets requires efficient resource use to deliver HIV testing and treatment services. We investigated the costs and efficiency of HIV services in relation to HIV testing yield in rural Karonga District, Malawi.

METHODS

Costs of HIV services were measured over 12 months to September 2017 in five health facilities, drawing on recognised health costing principles. Financial and economic costs were collected in Malawi Kwacha and United States Dollars (US$). Costs were calculated using a provider perspective to estimate average annual costs (2017 US$) per HIV testing episode, per HIV-positive case diagnosed, and per patient-year on antiretroviral therapy (ART), by facility. Costs were assessed in relation to scale of operation and facility-level annual HIV positivity rate. A one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken to understand how staffing levels and the HIV positivity rate affected HIV testing costs.

RESULTS

HIV testing episodes per day and per full-time equivalent HIV health worker averaged 3.3 (range 2.0 to 5.7). The HIV positivity rate averaged 2.4% (range 1.9 to 3.7%). The average cost per testing episode was US$2.85 (range US$1.95 to US$8.55), and the average cost per HIV diagnosis was US$116.35 (range US$77.42 to US$234.11), with the highest costs found in facilities with the lowest daily number of tests and lowest HIV yield respectively. The mean facility-level cost per patient-year on ART was approximately US$100 (range US$90.67 to US$115.42). ART drugs were the largest cost component averaging 71% (range 55 to 76%). The cost per patient-year of viral load tests averaged US$4.50 (range US$0.52 to US$7.00) with cost variation reflecting differences in the tests to ART patient ratio across facilities.

CONCLUSION

Greater efficiencies in HIV service delivery are possible in Karonga through increasing daily testing episodes among existing health workers or allocating health workers to tasks in addition to testing. Costs per diagnosis will increase as yields decline, and therefore, encouraging targeted testing strategies that increase yield will be more efficient. Given the contribution of drug costs to per patient-year treatment costs, it is critical to preserve the life-span of first-line ART regimens, underlining the need for continuing adherence support and regular viral load monitoring.

Innovative financing to fund surgical systems and expand surgical care in low-income and middle-income countries

Strong surgical systems are necessary to prevent premature death and avoidable disability from surgical conditions. The epidemiological transition, which has led to a rising burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries worldwide, will increase the demand for surgical assessment and care as a definitive healthcare intervention. Yet, 5 billion people lack access to timely, affordable and safe surgical and anaesthesia care, with the unmet demand affecting predominantly low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Rapid surgical care scale-up is required in LMICs to strengthen health system capabilities, but adequate financing for this expansion is lacking. This article explores the critical role of innovative financing in scaling up surgical care in LMICs. We locate surgical system financing by using a modified fiscal space analysis. Through an analysis of published studies and case studies on recent trends in the financing of global health systems, we provide a conceptual framework that could assist policy-makers in health systems to develop innovative financing strategies to mobilise additional investments for scale-up of surgical care in LMICs. This is the first time such an analysis has been applied to the funding of surgical care. Innovative financing in global surgery is an untapped potential funding source for expanding fiscal space for health systems and financing scale-up of surgical care in LMICs.

Correlates of physical activity stages of change in people living with HIV in a Ugandan community

Purpose: The transtheoretical model (TTM) of behavioral change posits that individuals move through five stages of change when adopting new behaviors: pre-contemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of patients with HIV/AIDS within a Ugandan fishing community in the different physical activity (PA) stages. We also explored differences in variables, motives, and barriers for PA across the stages.Methods: In total, 256 individuals (77 men, 40.5 ± 10.3 years) completed the Patient-centered Assessment and Counseling for Exercise Questionnaire, the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) to assess depressive symptoms, and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. They were also asked about their most important PA motive and barrier.Results: Seventy-five individuals (29%) were in the (pre-)preparatory stages, 140 (55%) in the action and 41 (16%) in the maintenance stage. Those in the (pre-)preparatory stages had higher PHQ-9 total scores (p < 0.001) and were more likely to report barriers than those in the later stages (p < 0.001). Compared with those in the (pre-)preparatory stage, patients in the action stage experienced less body weakness (p = 0.015).Conclusions: Depression and barriers to PA should be considered in people with HIV/AIDS in low-resource settings when implementing interventions to assist them to become more active.Implications for rehabilitationPeople with HIV/AIDS are among the most physically inactive clinical populations.Clinicians should consider depression when motivating patients with HIV in low resourced settings to become active.Clinicians should consider body weakness when motivating patients with HIV in low resourced settings to become active.

Ending TB in Southeast Asia: current resources are not enough

The Southeast Asia Region continues to battle tuberculosis (TB) as one of its most severe health and development challenges. Unless there is a substantial increase in investments for TB prevention, diagnosis, care and treatment, there will be catastrophic effects for the region. The uncontrolled TB burden impacts socioeconomic development and increase of drug resistance in the region. Based on epidemiological inputs from a mathematical model, a costing analysis estimates that the desired targets of ending TB are achievable with additional interventions, and critical thresholds require an increase in spending by almost double the current levels. The data source for financial allocation to TB programmes is the report submitted by countries to WHO, while projections are based on modelling. The model accounts for funding needs for all strategies based on published data and accounts for programme and patient costs. This paper delineates the resource needs, availability and gaps of ending TB in the region. It is estimated that close to US$2 billion per year are needed in the region for TB-related activities for a meaningful bending of the incidence curve towards ending TB.

The short-term effects of the implementation of the "Treat All" guidelines on ART service delivery costs in Namibia

The introduction of "Treat All" (TA) has been promoted to increase the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS treatment by having patients initiate antiretroviral therapy at an earlier stage of their illness. The impact of introducing TA on the unit cost of treatment has been less clear. The following study evaluated how costs changed after Namibia's introduction of TA in April 2017. A two-year analysis assessed the costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the 12 months before TA (Phase I-April 1, 2016 to March 31, 2017) and the 12 months following (Phase II-April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018). The analysis involved interviewing staff at ten facilities throughout Namibia, collecting data on resources utilized in the treatment of ART patients and analyzing how costs changed before and after the introduction of TA. An analysis of treatment costs indicated that the unit cost of treatment declined from USD360 per patient per year in Phase I to USD301 per patient per year in Phase II, a reduction of 16%. This decline in unit costs was driven by 3 factors: 1) shifts in antiretroviral (ARV) regimens that resulted in lower costs for drugs and consumables, 2) negotiated reductions in the cost of viral load tests and 3) declines in personnel costs. It is unlikely that the first two of these factors were significantly influenced by the introduction of TA. It is unclear if TA might have had an influence on personnel costs. The reduction in personnel costs may have either represented a positive development (fewer personnel costs associated with increased numbers of healthier patients and fewer visits required) or alternatively may reflect constraints in Namibia's staffing. Prior to this study, it was expected that the introduction of TA would lead to a significant increase in the number of ART patients. However, there was less than a 4% increase in the number of adult patients at the 10 studied facilities. From a financial point of view, TA did not significantly increase the resources required in the ten sampled facilities, either by raising unit costs or significantly increasing the number of ART patients.

Pepfar 3.0's HIV testing policy in Côte d'Ivoire (2014 to 2018): fragmentation, acceleration and disconnection

INTRODUCTION

HIV Testing and Counselling (HTC) remains a key challenge in achieving control of the HIV epidemic by 2030. In the early 2010s, the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar) adopted targeted HTC strategies for populations and geographical areas most affected by HIV. We examine how Pepfar defined targeted HTC in Côte d'Ivoire, a country with a mixed HIV epidemic, after a decade of expanding HTC services.

METHODS

We explored the evolution of HTC strategies through the Country Operational Plans (COP) of Pepfar during its phase 3.0, from COP 14 to COP 17 (October 2014 to September 2018) in Côte d'Ivoire. We conducted an analysis of the grey literature over the period 2014 to 2018 (Budget & Target Report, Strategic Direction Summary, Sustainability Index and Dashboard Summary, https://data.pepfar.gov). We also conducted a qualitative study in Côte d'Ivoire (2015 to 2018) using in-depth interviews with stakeholders in the AIDS public response: CDC/Pepfar (3), Ministry of Health (3), intermediary NGOs (7); and public meeting observations (14).

RESULTS

Since the COP 14, Pepfar's HIV testing strategies have been characterized by significant variations in terms of numerical, geographical and population targets. While the aim of COP 14 and COP 15 seemed to be the improvement of testing efficacy in general and testing yield in particular, COP 16 and COP 17 prioritized accelerating progress towards the "first 90" (i.e. reducing the proportion of people living with HIV who are unaware of their HIV). A shift was observed in the definition of testing targets, with less focus on the inclusion of programmatic data and feedback from field actors, and greater emphasis on the use of models to estimate and disaggregate the targets by geographical units and sub-populations (even if the availability of data by this disaggregation was limited or uncertain); increasingly leading to gaps between targets and results.

CONCLUSIONS

These trials and tribulations question the real and long-term effectiveness of annually-revised, fragmented strategies, which widen an increasing disparity between the realities of the actors on the ground and the objectives set in Washington.

Associations between physical inactivity, major depressive disorder, and alcohol use disorder in people living with HIV in a Ugandan fishing community

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore which variables were associated with physical inactivity in people living with HIV living in a fishing community in Uganda. Secondary aims were to explore the reasons for and barriers to physical activity (PA). Two hundred and fifty-six individuals living with HIV (77 men, 40.5 ± 10.3 years) completed the Physical Activity Vital Sign (PAVS), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Women had a 1.62 (95% CI = 1.01–2.57), those not having a job a 2.81 (95% CI = 2.00–3.94), and those with depression a 5.67 (95% CI = 2.27–14.17) higher odds for not being physically active for 150 min/week at moderate intensity. Employment and depression status were the only independent significant predictors explaining 27.2% of the PAVS variance. Becoming more healthy and energetic again and reducing stress were the most important PA motives, and musculoskeletal pain, body weakness, and lack of time were the most important PA barriers.

VIBRA trial - Effect of village-based refill of ART following home-based same-day ART initiation vs clinic-based ART refill on viral suppression among individuals living with HIV: protocol of a cluster-randomized clinical trial in rural Lesotho

BACKGROUND

There is a need for evaluating community-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery models to improve overall performance of HIV programs, specifically in populations that may have difficulties to access continuous care. This cluster-randomized clinical trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a multicomponent differentiated ART delivery model (VIBRA model) after home-based same-day ART initiation in remote villages in Lesotho, southern Africa.

METHODS/DESIGN

The VIBRA trial (VIllage-Based Refill of ART) is a cluster-randomized parallel-group superiority clinical trial conducted in two districts in Lesotho, southern Africa. Clusters (i.e., villages) are randomly assigned to either the VIBRA model or standard care. The clusters are stratified by district, village size, and village access to the nearest health facility. Eligible individuals (HIV-positive, aged 10 years or older, and not taking ART) identified during community-based HIV testing campaigns are offered same-day home-based ART initiation. The intervention clusters offer a differentiated ART delivery package with two features: (1) drug refills and follow-ups by trained and supervised village health workers (VHWs) and (2) the option of receiving individually tailored adherence reminders and notifications of viral load results via SMS. The control clusters will continue to receive standard care, i.e., collecting ART refills from a clinic and no SMS notifications. The primary endpoint is viral suppression 12 months after enrolment. Secondary endpoints include linkage to and engagement in care. Furthermore, safety and cost-effectiveness analyses plus qualitative research are planned. The minimum target sample size is 262 participants. The statistical analyses will follow the CONSORT guidelines. The VIBRA trial is linked to another trial, the HOSENG (HOme-based SElf-testiNG) trial, both of which are within the GET ON (GETing tOwards Ninety) research project.

DISCUSSION

The VIBRA trial is among the first to evaluate the delivery of ART by VHWs immediately after ART initiation. It assesses the entire HIV care cascade from testing to viral suppression. As most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have cadres like the VHW program in Lesotho, this model-if shown to be effective-has the potential to be scaled up. The system impact evaluation will provide valuable cost estimations, and the qualitative research will suggest how the model could be further modified to optimize its impact.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03630549 . Registered on 15 August 2018.

Mathematical modelling to inform 'treat all' implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Despite widespread uptake, only half of sub-Saharan African countries have fully implemented the World Health Organization's 'treat all' policy, hindering achievement of global HIV targets. We examined literature on mathematical modelling studies that sought to inform scale-up and implementation of 'treat all' in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review, a research synthesis to assess emerging evidence and identify gaps, of peer-reviewed literature, extracting study characteristics on 'treat all' policies and assumptions, setting, key populations, outcomes and findings. Studies were narratively summarised and potential gaps characterised.

RESULTS

We identified 16 studies examining 'treat all' alone (n=12) or with expanded testing (n=7) and/or care continuum improvements (n=6). Twelve studies examined 'treat all' for Southern African countries, while none did so for Central Africa. Four included the role of resistance; one evaluated any key population. A range of health and economic outcomes were reported, although fewer studies formally assessed budget impact. Fourteen studies involved co-authors with any in-country affiliation; one study also had co-authors with local government affiliation. Overall, 'treat all' improves health outcomes and is cost-effective compared to deferred HIV treatment; 'treat all' with expanded testing or care continuum improvements may provide further health benefits. However, studies generally used optimistic assumptions about the implementation of expanded testing or care continuum improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

The modelling literature demonstrates improved health and economic benefits of 'treat all'. Using mathematical modelling to inform real-world implementation of 'treat all' requires realistic assumptions about expanded testing and care continuum interventions across a wide range of settings and populations.

Physical activity and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of correlates and levels

Background

Self-management strategies such as physical activity (PA) can address disability and optimize mental, physical, social and economic outcomes for persons living with HIV (PLWH). Understanding factors that influence PA behavior in PLWH is a first step in order to devise effective interventions.

Objective

The present review provides a systematic review of the correlates of PA in PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Electronic databases were searched till April 2016. Keywords included ‘physical activity’ or ‘exercise’ or ‘sports’ and ‘AIDS’ or ‘HIV’.

Results

Ten correlates were identified in 6 studies including 1,015 (329♂) PLWH (mean age range=30.5–40.8years). Lower levels of PA were associated with older age (2/2 studies), a lower number of CD4 cells/µl (1/1), a more severe HIV-stage (1/1), a higher HIV load (1/1), the presence of opportunistic infections (1/1) and a higher BMI (1/1). Fisher's exact tests showed there were more significant correlates in objective tools versus subjective self-report (P=0.03).

Conclusion

The current review shows that participation in PA by PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with a range of complex factors which should be considered in the daily care of PLWH. This however might require repackaging of the current interventions for PLWH to allow a focus on PA.

The global Optima HIV allocative efficiency model: targeting resources in efforts to end AIDS

BACKGROUND

To move towards ending AIDS by 2030, HIV resources should be allocated cost-effectively. We used the Optima HIV model to estimate how global HIV resources could be retargeted for greatest epidemiological effect and how many additional new infections could be averted by 2030.

METHODS

We collated standard data used in country modelling exercises (including demographic, epidemiological, behavioural, programmatic, and expenditure data) from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2015 for 44 countries, capturing 80% of people living with HIV worldwide. These data were used to parameterise separate subnational and national models within the Optima HIV framework. To estimate optimal resource allocation at subnational, national, regional, and global levels, we used an adaptive stochastic descent optimisation algorithm in combination with the epidemic models and cost functions for each programme in each country. Optimal allocation analyses were done with international HIV funds remaining the same to each country and by redistributing these funds between countries.

FINDINGS

Without additional funding, if countries were to optimally allocate their HIV resources from 2016 to 2030, we estimate that an additional 7·4 million (uncertainty range 3·9 million-14·0 million) new infections could be averted, representing a 26% (uncertainty range 13-50%) incidence reduction. Redistribution of international funds between countries could avert a further 1·9 million infections, which represents a 33% (uncertainty range 20-58%) incidence reduction overall. To reduce HIV incidence by 90% relative to 2010, we estimate that more than a three-fold increase of current annual funds will be necessary until 2030. The most common priorities for optimal resource reallocation are to scale up treatment and prevention programmes targeting key populations at greatest risk in each setting. Prioritisation of other HIV programmes depends on the epidemiology and cost-effectiveness of service delivery in each setting as well as resource availability.

INTERPRETATION

Further reductions in global HIV incidence are possible through improved targeting of international and national HIV resources.

FUNDING

World Bank and Australian NHMRC.

What goes wrong with the allocation of domestic and international resources for HIV?

This paper examines how domestic and international financing for HIV is, and ought to be, distributed. We build a theoretical framework that decomposes domestic and international financing for HIV into nonlinear functions of national income, HIV prevalence, and government effectiveness. We test this model, paying particular attention to nonlinearities and to problems of bad controls, multicollinearity, and reverse causality. Finally, we use the fitted values of quartile regressions to study how much countries could reasonably pay domestically and how much they should receive from donors. Worryingly, countries with higher financial means receive on average more aid per PLHIV than very poor ones, and countries with higher HIV prevalence receive on average less aid per people living with HIV. The normative analysis concludes that US$3.08 billion of fiscal space could be created in LIC and MIC. We identify the countries that could be allocated more aid.

Innovative financing for HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In 2015 around 15 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub–Saharan Africa. Sustained provision of ART, though both prudent and necessary, creates substantial long–term fiscal obligations for countries affected by HIV/AIDS. As donor assistance for health remains constrained, novel financing mechanisms are needed to augment funding domestic sources. We explore how Innovative Financing has been used to co–finance domestic HIV/AIDS responses. Based on analysis of non–health sectors, we identify innovative financing instruments that could be used in the HIV response.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review to identify innovative financing instruments used for (1) domestic HIV/AIDS financing in sub–Saharan Africa (2) international health financing and (3) financing in non–health sectors. We analyzed peer–reviewed and grey literature published between 2002 and 2014. We examined the nature and volume of funds mobilized with innovative financing, then in consultation with leading experts, identified instruments that held potential for financing the HIV response.

Results

Our analysis revealed three innovative financing instruments in use: Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund (a tax/levy–based instrument), Botswana’s National HIV/AIDS Prevention Support (BNAPS) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Buy–Down (a debt conversion instrument), and Côte d'Ivoire's Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement (a debt conversion instrument). Zimbabwe’s AIDS Trust Fund generated US$ 52.7 million between 2008 and 2011, Botswana’s IBRD Buy–Down generated US$ 20 million, and Côte d’Ivoire’s Debt2Health Debt Swap Agreement generated US$ 27 million, at least half of which was to be invested in HIV/AIDS programs. Four additional categories of innovative financing instruments met our criteria for future use: (1) remittances and diaspora bonds (2) social and development impact bonds (3) sovereign wealth funds (4) risk and credit guarantees.

Conclusion

A limited number of innovative financing instruments contributed a very modest share of funding toward domestic HIV/AIDS programs. Several innovative financing instruments successfully applied in other sectors could be used to augment domestic financing toward HIV/AIDS programmes.

Treatment of HIV for the Prevention of Transmission in Discordant Couples and at the Population Level

The scientific breakthrough proving that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can halt heterosexual HIV transmission came in the form of a landmark clinical trial conducted among serodiscordant couples. Study findings immediately informed global recommendations for the use of treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples. The extent to which these findings are generalizable to other key populations or to groups exposed to HIV through nonsexual transmission routes (i.e., anal intercourse or unsafe injection of drugs) has since driven a large body of research. This review explores the history of HIV research in serodiscordant couples, the implications for management of couples, subsequent research on treatment as prevention in other key populations, and challenges in community implementation of these strategies.

Policy makers, the international community and the population in the prevention and treatment of diseases: case study on HIV/AIDS

A four-period game is developed between a policy maker, the international community, and the population. This research supplements, through implementing strategic interaction, earlier research analyzing "one player at a time". The first two players distribute funds between preventing and treating diseases. The population reacts by degree of risky behavior which may cause no disease, disease contraction, recovery, sickness/death. More funds to prevention implies less disease contraction but higher death rate given disease contraction. The cost effectiveness of treatment relative to prevention, country specific conditions, and how the international community converts funds compared with the policy maker in a country, are illustrated. We determine which factors impact funding, e.g. large probabilities of disease contraction, and death given contraction, and if the recovery utility and utility of remaining sick or dying are far below the no disease utility. We also delineate how the policy maker and international community may free ride on each other's contributions. The model is tested against empirical data for 43 African countries. The results show consistency between the theoretical model and empirical estimates. The paper argues for the need to create commitment mechanisms to ensure that free riding by both countries and the international community is avoided.

Can differentiated care models solve the crisis in HIV treatment financing? Analysis of prospects for 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction: Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of financial and health system constraints has resulted in calls to maximize efficiency in ART service delivery. Adopting differentiated care models (DCMs) for ART could potentially be more cost-efficient and improve outcomes. However, no study comprehensively projects the cost savings across countries. We model the potential reduction in facility-level costs and number of health workers needed when implementing two types of DCMs while attempting to reach 90-90-90 targets in 38 sub-Saharan African countries from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: We estimated the costs of three service delivery models: (1) undifferentiated care, (2) differentiated care by patient age and stability, and (3) differentiated care by patient age, stability, key vs. general population status, and urban vs. rural location. Frequency of facility visits, type and frequency of laboratory testing, and coverage of community ART support vary by patient subgroup. For each model, we estimated the total costs of antiretroviral drugs, laboratory commodities, and facility-level personnel and overhead. Certain groups under four-criteria differentiation require more intensive inputs. Community-based ART costs were included in the DCMs. We take into account underlying uncertainty in the projected numbers on ART and unit costs.

Results: Total five-year facility-based ART costs for undifferentiated care are estimated to be US$23.33 billion (95% confidence interval [CI]: $23.3–$23.5 billion). An estimated 17.5% (95% CI: 17.4%–17.7%) and 16.8% (95% CI: 16.7%–17.0%) could be saved from 2016 to 2020 from implementing the age and stability DCM and four-criteria DCM, respectively, with annual cost savings increasing over time. DCMs decrease the full-time equivalent (FTE) health workforce requirements for ART. An estimated 46.4% (95% CI: 46.1%–46.7%) fewer FTE health workers are needed in 2020 for the age and stability DCM compared with undifferentiated care.

Conclusions: Adopting DCMs can result in significant efficiency gains in terms of reduced costs and health workforce needs, even with the costs of scaling up community-based ART support under DCMs. Efficiency gains remained flat with increased differentiation. More evidence is needed on how to translate analyzed efficiency gains into implemented cost reductions at the facility level.

Criteria for prioritization of HIV programs in Viet Nam: a discrete choice experiment

Background

With the decline in funding for Viet Nam’s response to the HIV epidemic, there is a need for evidence on the criteria to guide the prioritization of HIV programs. There is a gap in the research on the relative importance of multiple criteria for prioritizing a package of interventions. This study elicits preferences and the trade-offs made between different HIV programs by relevant stakeholders and decision-makers in Viet Nam. It also pays attention to how differences in social and professional characteristics of stakeholders and their agency affiliations shape preferences for HIV program criteria in Viet Nam.

Methods

This study uses self-explicated ranking and discrete choice experiments to determine the relative importance of five criteria - effectiveness, feasibility, cost-effectiveness, rate of investment and prevention/treatment investment ratio - to stakeholders when they evaluate and select hypothetical HIV programs. The study includes 69 participants from government, civil society, and international development partners.

Results

Results of the discrete choice experiment show that overall the feasibility criterion is ranked highest in importance to the participants when choosing a hypothetical HIV program, followed by sustainability, treatment to prevention spending ratio, and effectiveness. The participant’s work in management, programming, or decision-making has a significant effect on the importance of some criteria to the participant. In the self-explicated ranking effectiveness is the most important criterion and the cost-effectiveness criterion ranks low in importance across all groups.

Conclusions

This study has shown that the preferred HIV program in Viet Nam is feasible, front-loaded for sustainability, has a higher proportion of investment on prevention, saves more lives and prevents more infections. Similarities in government and civil society rankings of criteria can create common grounds for future policy dialogues between stakeholders. Innovative models of planning should be utilized to allow inputs of informed stakeholders at relevant stages of the HIV program planning process.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2679-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of early initiation versus national standard of care of antiretroviral therapy in Swaziland's public sector health system: study protocol for a stepped-wedge randomized trial

Background

There is robust clinical evidence to support offering early access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) to all HIV-positive individuals, irrespective of disease stage, to both improve patient health outcomes and reduce HIV incidence. However, as the global treatment guidelines shift to meet this evidence, it is still largely unknown if early access to ART for all (also referred to as “treatment as prevention” or “universal test and treat”) is a feasible intervention in the resource-limited countries where this approach could have the biggest impact on the course of the HIV epidemics. The MaxART Early Access to ART for All (EAAA) implementation study was designed to determine the feasibility, acceptability, clinical outcomes, affordability, and scalability of offering early antiretroviral treatment to all HIV-positive individuals in Swaziland’s public sector health system.

Methods

This is a three-year stepped-wedge randomized design with open enrollment for all adults aged 18 years and older across 14 government-managed health facilities in Swaziland’s Hhohho Region. Primary endpoints are retention and viral suppression. Secondary endpoints include ART initiation, adherence, drug resistance, tuberculosis, HIV disease progression, patient satisfaction, and cost per patient per year.

Sites are grouped to transition two at a time from the control (standard of care) to intervention (EAAA) stage at each four-month step. This design will result in approximately one half of the total observation time to accrue in the intervention arm and the other half in the control arm. Our estimated enrolment number, which is supported by conservative power calculations, is 4501 patients over the course of the 36-month study period.

A multidisciplinary, mixed-methods approach will be adopted to supplement the randomized controlled trial and meet the study aims. Additional study components include implementation science, social science, economic evaluation, and predictive HIV incidence modeling.

Discussion

A stepped-wedge randomized design is a causally strong and robust approach to determine if providing antiretroviral treatment for all HIV-positive individuals is a feasible intervention in a resource-limited, public sector health system. We expect our study results to contribute to health policy decisions related to the HIV response in Swaziland and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02909218. Registered on 10 July 2016.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2128-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The impact of community health worker-led home delivery of antiretroviral therapy on virological suppression: a non-inferiority cluster-randomized health systems trial in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Background

Home delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) by community health workers (CHWs) may improve ART retention by reducing the time burden and out-of-pocket expenditures to regularly attend an ART clinic. In addition, ART home delivery may shorten waiting times and improve quality of care for those in facility-based care by decongesting ART clinics. This trial aims to determine whether ART home delivery for patients who are clinically stable on ART combined with facility-based care for those who are not stable on ART is non-inferior to the standard of care (facility-based care for all ART patients) in achieving and maintaining virological suppression.

Methods

This is a non-inferiority cluster-randomized trial set in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A cluster is one of 48 healthcare facilities with its surrounding catchment area. 24 clusters were randomized to ART home delivery and 24 to the standard of care. The intervention consists of home visits by CHWs to provide counseling and deliver ART to patients who are stable on ART, while the control is the standard of care (facility-based ART and CHW home visits without ART home delivery). In addition, half of the healthcare facilities in each study arm were randomized to standard counseling during home visits (covering family planning, prevention of HIV transmission, and ART adherence), and half to standard plus nutrition counseling (covering food production and dietary advice). The non-inferiority design applies to the endpoints of the ART home delivery trial; the primary endpoint is the proportion of ART patients at a healthcare facility who are virally suppressed at the end of the study period. The margin of non-inferiority for this primary endpoint was set at nine percentage points.

Discussion

As the number of ART patients in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise, this trial provides causal evidence on the effectiveness of a home-based care model that could decongest ART clinics and reduce patients’ healthcare expenditures. More broadly, this trial will inform the increasing policy interest in task-shifting of chronic disease care from facility- to community-based healthcare workers.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02711293. Registration date: 16 March 2016.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2032-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Costing of National STI Program Implementation for the Global STI Control Strategy for the Health Sector, 2016-2021

Introduction

In 2016 the World Health Assembly adopted the global strategy on Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) 2016–2021 aiming to reduce curable STIs by 90% by 2030. We costed scaling-up priority interventions to coverage targets.

Methods

Strategy-targeted declines in Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Treponema pallidum and Trichomonas vaginalis were applied to WHO-estimated regional burdens at 2012. Syndromic case management was costed for these curable STIs, symptomatic Herpes Simplex Virus 2 (HSV-2), and non-STI vaginal syndromes, with incrementally expanding etiologic diagnosis. Service unit costs were multiplied with clinic attendances and people targeted for screening or prevention, by income tier. Human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination and screening were costed for coverage increasing to 60% of 10-year-old girls for vaccination, and 60% of women 30–49 years for twice-lifetime screening (including clinical follow-up for positive screens), by 2021.

Results

Strategy implementation will cost an estimated US$ 18.1 billion over 2016–2021 in 117 low- and middle-income countries. Cost drivers are HPV vaccination ($3.26 billion) and screening ($3.69 billion), adolescent chlamydia screening ($2.54 billion), and antenatal syphilis screening ($1.4 billion). Clinical management—of 18 million genital ulcers, 29–39 million urethral discharges and 42–53 million vaginal discharges annually—will cost $3.0 billion, including $818 million for service delivery and $1.4 billion for gonorrhea and chlamydia testing. Global costs increase from $2.6 billion to $ 4.0 billion over 2016–2021, driven by HPV services scale-up, despite vaccine price reduction. Sub-Saharan Africa, bearing 40% of curable STI burdens, covers 44% of global service needs and 30% of cost, the Western Pacific 15% of burden/need and 26% of cost, South-East Asia 20% of burden/need and 18% of cost.

Conclusions

Costs of global STI control depend on price trends for HPV vaccines and chlamydia tests. Middle-income and especially low-income countries need increased investment, innovative financing, and synergizing with other health programs.

Human Resources for Treating HIV/AIDS: Are the Preventive Effects of Antiretroviral Treatment a Game Changer?

Shortages of human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are a fundamental barrier to reaching universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in developing countries. Previous studies suggest that recruiting HRHA to attain universal ART coverage poses an insurmountable challenge as ART significantly increases survival among HIV-infected individuals. While new evidence about ART's prevention benefits suggests fewer infections may mitigate the challenge, new policies such as treatment-as-prevention (TasP) will exacerbate it. We develop a mathematical model to analytically study the net effects of these countervailing factors. Using South Africa as a case study, we find that contrary to previous results, universal ART coverage is achievable even with current HRHA numbers. However, larger health gains are possible through a surge-capacity policy that aggressively recruits HRHA to reach universal ART coverage quickly. Without such a policy, TasP roll-out can increase health losses by crowding out sicker patients from treatment, unless a surge capacity exclusively for TasP is also created.

Changing HIV treatment eligibility under health system constraints in sub-Saharan Africa: investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

We estimated the investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness of different policy options for scaling-up prevention and treatment of HIV in the 10 countries that currently comprise 80% of all people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe).

Design:

We adapted the established STDSIM model to capture the health system dynamics: demand-side and supply-side constraints in the delivery of antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Methods:

We compared different scenarios of supply-side (i.e. health system capacity) and demand-side (i.e. health seeking behavior) constraints, and determined the impact of changing guidelines to ART eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count within these constraints.

Results:

Continuing current scale-up would require US$178 billion by 2050. Changing guidelines to ART at any CD4⁺ cell count is cost-effective under all constraints tested in the model, especially in demand-side constrained health systems because earlier initiation prevents loss-to-follow-up of patients not yet eligible. Changing guidelines under current demand-side constraints would avert 1.8 million infections at US$208 per life-year saved.

Conclusion:

Treatment eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count would be cost-effective, even under health system constraints. Excessive loss-to-follow-up and mortality in patients not eligible for treatment can be avoided by changing guidelines in demand-side constrained systems. The financial obligation for sustaining the AIDS response in sub-Saharan Africa over the next 35 years is substantial and requires strong, long-term commitment of policy-makers and donors to continue to allocate substantial parts of their budgets.